Does he have a personal grudge against either May or the UK?
His pot-stirring is at best ill-advised and at worst thicker than a yard of lard if not.
But to be honest, most of it now hinges on the CJEU next Monday. If they rule we can revoke A50 unilaterally the odds are we will crash out with no deal. If not, that should tip the unicorn admirers in Labour to abstention.
You don't think if it rules that way we are quite likely, if not now then sometime before March, revoke? There are serious problems doing so without a referendum, but if parliamentarians mean what they say they will take that option to avoid no deal.
Also, what about the unicorn admirers in the Tories? In a scenario where we cannot revoke then do they tip to abstain?
No. We don't have any mechanism to do so. Civil disobedience is a possibility but more likely is the government would collapse leading to political paralysis.
But - the prospect of revocation will keep Labour hoping for a change of heart until it's too late to do anything.
If Westminster just say "Feck it, we've ballsed it up and we're revoking A50, we're staying it" Even I'd be forced to march on parliament with an A4 sheet of paper with "Down with this sort of thing!" written on it.
I would make a meme and post it on Twitter. That'll show 'em.
Does he have a personal grudge against either May or the UK?
His pot-stirring is at best ill-advised and at worst thicker than a yard of lard if not.
But to be honest, most of it now hinges on the CJEU next Monday. If they rule we can revoke A50 unilaterally the odds are we will crash out with no deal. If not, that should tip the unicorn admirers in Labour to abstention.
You don't think if it rules that way we are quite likely, if not now then sometime before March, revoke? There are serious problems doing so without a referendum, but if parliamentarians mean what they say they will take that option to avoid no deal.
Also, what about the unicorn admirers in the Tories? In a scenario where we cannot revoke then do they tip to abstain?
No. We don't have any mechanism to do so. Civil disobedience is a possibility but more likely is the government would collapse leading to political paralysis.
But - the prospect of revocation will keep Labour hoping for a change of heart until it's too late to do anything.
If Westminster just say "Feck it, we've ballsed it up and we're revoking A50, we're staying it" Even I'd be forced to march on parliament with an A4 sheet of paper with "Down with this sort of thing!" written on it.
I would make a meme and post it on Twitter. That'll show 'em.
Steady on, there's no need to overreact and do something you'll regret.
Can Tuesday just be here already? Waiting for the vote to stamp May's deal into the dirt and her to resign or be ousted has been exhausted - it'd be nice to get the point of knowing in what way we are going to be screwed before Christmas. Let's all hope for some unicorns from Father Christmas.
Tuesday will be high drama when any number of outcomes could prevail.
I do believe TM determination to put the deal to the HOC is brave but correct. It is the catalyst that everything will flow from and mps voting records made public.
I do not know if TM will resign, (but it is out of character), face a vnoc or determine to enter more talks with the EU. It hasn't been spoken too much about the EU position, apart from the thread header, but this is high noon for them as well
If TM sacrificing herself on this deal brings a solution nearer she needs more praise than vitriol
May is done for. That deal will never pass. If she persists in trying to hammer it through after Parliament rejects it then she will still be toppled as Prime Minister, because she'll end up destroying her own party.
(Note: given my past record in making predictions, the deal will probably now pass and May will win a snap election after Brexit with a 100 seat majority)
The Tory party needs a nice quiet lie down somewhere.
It looks like some form of split is inevitable. The Tories won’t be the party of no deal, no matter how much some activists might want it.
The Tory Party won't let itself be split b see cause Labour put naked partisan ambition ahead of the economy and democracy. Even pro-dealers like me wouldn't split over it.
Well you should. The factions of the Tories detest one another, acting with total contempt toward the other, and the idea that has not reached a point where you cannot reasonably work together within the same party is absolutely nonsense. They need to be in separate parties which can work together on some issues, rather than keep up the current pretence.
Unless one side just downright beats the other into submission as has happened with Labour, a split is eminently sensible.
May is done for. That deal will never pass. If she persists in trying to hammer it through after Parliament rejects it then she will still be toppled as Prime Minister, because she'll end up destroying her own party.
(Note: given my past record in making predictions, the deal will probably now pass and May will win a snap election after Brexit with a 100 seat majority)
The Tory party needs a nice quiet lie down somewhere.
It looks like some form of split is inevitable. The Tories won’t be the party of no deal, no matter how much some activists might want it.
The Tory Party won't let itself be split b see cause Labour put naked partisan ambition ahead of the economy and democracy. Even pro-dealers like me wouldn't split over it. Maybe a handful of elitist social Democrat types like Grieve and Soubry might go, but it will be a tidy number. If Labour want to try to blackmail the country into Remaining we should call their bluff.
You think a Tory government would go through with a no deal exit? What do you think the long term future of the UK as a political entity would be?
Labour would abolish Thatcher-era laws preventing workers in the UK from taking industrial action in solidarity with their counterparts in other countries, the shadow chancellor has announced.
At an event in Airdrie, John McDonnell pledged that a Labour government would restore trade union rights by repealing legislation that undermines the ability of workers to take “collective action and acts of solidarity”.
So LAB is promising us a return to the "Winter of Discontent" - sound like a vote winner
May is done for. That deal will never pass. If she persists in trying to hammer it through after Parliament rejects it then she will still be toppled as Prime Minister, because she'll end up destroying her own party.
(Note: given my past record in making predictions, the deal will probably now pass and May will win a snap election after Brexit with a 100 seat majority)
The Tory party needs a nice quiet lie down somewhere.
It looks like some form of split is inevitable. The Tories won’t be the party of no deal, no matter how much some activists might want it.
The Tory Party won't let itself be split b see cause Labour put naked partisan ambition ahead of the economy and democracy. Even pro-dealers like me wouldn't split over it. Maybe a handful of elitist social Democrat types like Grieve and Soubry might go, but it will be a tidy number. If Labour want to try to blackmail the country into Remaining we should call their bluff.
If a cliff edge, unplanned no deal happens, the Tories are likely finished away. United or not. And I speak as an otherwise conservative voter.
Posted the Prodi story on the last thread and agree it's important. But what I think he primarily means is that they'll negotiate reasonable arrangements so everything doesn't grind to a halt on March 31. In that sense I think the Project Fear Mk 2 arguments are exaggerated - literally nobody on the planet wants us to run out of medicine, planes to stop flying etc. By "no deal" what we should mean is "a reasonable trading arrangement working towards an WTO arrangement". I wouldn't like it, but it wouldn't be the end of the world.
But it is still interesting as to why he has come out with this now. This article saying as you do that mini deals will be done guarantees May's deal will be voted down. Is Prodi speaking off his own bat or is it organised by some group in the EU, perhaps to get Ydoethur salivating, an anti Selmayr group.
Can Tuesday just be here already? Waiting for the vote to stamp May's deal into the dirt and her to resign or be ousted has been exhausted - it'd be nice to get the point of knowing in what way we are going to be screwed before Christmas. Let's all hope for some unicorns from Father Christmas.
Tuesday will be high drama when any number of outcomes could prevail.
I do believe TM determination to put the deal to the HOC is brave but correct. It is the catalyst that everything will flow from and mps voting records made public.
I do not know if TM will resign, (but it is out of character), face a vnoc or determine to enter more talks with the EU. It hasn't been spoken too much about the EU position, apart from the thread header, but this is high noon for them as well
If TM sacrificing herself on this deal brings a solution nearer she needs more praise than vitriol
She has been author of many of her own misfortunes but right now we need to pin everyone down on the deal that is on offer, everybody involved in this from us to the EU needs to know the strength of feeling in parliament, and whether various options are closed off entirely. May staying until the vote was necessary as no one else would bring it the house, and it is needed.
Labour would abolish Thatcher-era laws preventing workers in the UK from taking industrial action in solidarity with their counterparts in other countries, the shadow chancellor has announced.
At an event in Airdrie, John McDonnell pledged that a Labour government would restore trade union rights by repealing legislation that undermines the ability of workers to take “collective action and acts of solidarity”.
If the deal goes down, we will have a hard Brexit and five years of this. Best of luck everyone.
Posted the Prodi story on the last thread and agree it's important. But what I think he primarily means is that they'll negotiate reasonable arrangements so everything doesn't grind to a halt on March 31. In that sense I think the Project Fear Mk 2 arguments are exaggerated - literally nobody on the planet wants us to run out of medicine, planes to stop flying etc. By "no deal" what we should mean is "a reasonable trading arrangement working towards an WTO arrangement". I wouldn't like it, but it wouldn't be the end of the world.
The trouble with that is that it is still a deal, and will still need to cover the subject-matter of the 500+ pages of the current Withdrawal Agreement, and will still need parliamentary approval in a hung parliament with both main parties badly split. So whilst Prodi might be right that the EU might budge a bit (although let's not forget that he doesn't speak for the EU), any renegotiation may not be very extensive and is not necessarily going to get any less trashed than the first version. What is going to make 100+ or more MPs suddenly switch?
In addition, the WTO end point which you suggest makes things worse in two respects: it makes the Irish border problem substantially worse, and it makes the £39bn Danegeld demand even less palatable.
Is it possible and/or advisable to use UK debit cards in the USA, or is it better to stick to credit cards?
Do you mean at cash points or in shops? It is always advisable to let you bank know you will be using your card abroad and what country, otherwise it may not work.
Of course the EU see us a potential threat once we’ve left. Deregulation, lowering tax rates and regaining control of fishing are three of the big wins from Brexit before you start on the EU’s dependence on the City.
What never ceases to amaze me is May’s,incompetence and weakness, shared by those who support her, in giving that away for nothing. A co promise assumes we’ve got something of value for what, of value, we have given up. That is palpably notthe case. The EU have simply intimidated and bullied May into giving them everything g they want for nothing in return.
The Tory Party might well be your party, but it’s mine too. As you seek to lecture about compromise, you might want to bear that in mind.
Labour would abolish Thatcher-era laws preventing workers in the UK from taking industrial action in solidarity with their counterparts in other countries, the shadow chancellor has announced.
At an event in Airdrie, John McDonnell pledged that a Labour government would restore trade union rights by repealing legislation that undermines the ability of workers to take “collective action and acts of solidarity”.
So LAB is promising us a return to the "Winter of Discontent" - sound like a vote winner
Sadly it might be. Those old enough to remember are not voting Labour anyway.
May is done for. That deal will never pass. If she persists in trying to hammer it through after Parliament rejects it then she will still be toppled as Prime Minister, because she'll end up destroying her own party.
(Note: given my past record in making predictions, the deal will probably now pass and May will win a snap election after Brexit with a 100 seat majority)
The Tory party needs a nice quiet lie down somewhere.
It looks like some form of split is inevitable. The Tories won’t be the party of no deal, no matter how much some activists might want it.
The Tory Party won't let itself be split b see cause Labour put naked partisan ambition ahead of the economy and democracy. Even pro-dealers like me wouldn't split over it.
Well you should. The factions of the Tories detest one another, acting with total contempt toward the other, and the idea that has not reached a point where you cannot reasonably work together within the same party is absolutely nonsense. They need to be in separate parties which can work together on some issues, rather than keep up the current pretence.
Unless one side just downright beats the other into submission as has happened with Labour, a split is eminently sensible.
If in any doubt of the civil war people just need to rewatch Fernandez and Morgan going at each other on DP last week.
Labour would abolish Thatcher-era laws preventing workers in the UK from taking industrial action in solidarity with their counterparts in other countries, the shadow chancellor has announced.
At an event in Airdrie, John McDonnell pledged that a Labour government would restore trade union rights by repealing legislation that undermines the ability of workers to take “collective action and acts of solidarity”.
If the deal goes down, we will have a hard Brexit and five years of this. Best of luck everyone.
If that's the case, and we are facing this in mid March then the only sensible option is revoking A50 (depending on Monday). That's a much better backstop than all the other ones discussed....
Ideally there is a deal in the meantime but revocation (to rethink out position vis a vis Europe) is clearly better than no deal in that scenario. Anyone longing for no deal is bonkers.
May is done for. That deal will never pass. If she persists in trying to hammer it through after Parliament rejects it then she will still be toppled as Prime Minister, because she'll end up destroying her own party.
(Note: given my past record in making predictions, the deal will probably now pass and May will win a snap election after Brexit with a 100 seat majority)
The Tory party needs a nice quiet lie down somewhere.
It looks like some form of split is inevitable. The Tories won’t be the party of no deal, no matter how much some activists might want it.
The Tory Party won't let itself be split b see cause Labour put naked partisan ambition ahead of the economy and democracy. Even pro-dealers like me wouldn't split over it. Maybe a handful of elitist social Democrat types like Grieve and Soubry might go, but it will be a tidy number. If Labour want to try to blackmail the country into Remaining we should call their bluff.
If a cliff edge, unplanned no deal happens, the Tories are likely finished away. United or not. And I speak as an otherwise conservative voter.
Oh we will get hammered in the next general election for sure. But five years of Corbyn-McDonell-Abbott would finish Labour even harder. Which side would win after that is anyone's guess, but five years of economic suffering and mass immigration is only going to result in more anger and polarization. The politics of Grieve and Umunna will be completely killed off for a generation. But if that's what they want then they can go ahead and vote down the deal. They will only have themselves to blame.
Can Tuesday just be here already? Waiting for the vote to stamp May's deal into the dirt and her to resign or be ousted has been exhausted - it'd be nice to get the point of knowing in what way we are going to be screwed before Christmas. Let's all hope for some unicorns from Father Christmas.
Tuesday will be high drama when any number of outcomes could prevail.
I do believe TM determination to put the deal to the HOC is brave but correct. It is the catalyst that everything will flow from and mps voting records made public.
I do not know if TM will resign, (but it is out of character), face a vnoc or determine to enter more talks with the EU. It hasn't been spoken too much about the EU position, apart from the thread header, but this is high noon for them as well
If TM sacrificing herself on this deal brings a solution nearer she needs more praise than vitriol
She has been author of many of her own misfortunes but right now we need to pin everyone down on the deal that is on offer, everybody involved in this from us to the EU needs to know the strength of feeling in parliament, and whether various options are closed off entirely. May staying until the vote was necessary as no one else would bring it the house, and it is needed.
Indeed. It is the political equivalent of the human sacrifice. It needs to happen to purge the tribe of their sins against the Gods, and emerge re-born, ready to move forward. It has been blindingly obvious since Chequers that there wasn't a viable deal which could pass the House. It needs to be voted on, so the widespread delusion that there is such an agreement, is made utterly clear. Then the next moves can be made. Pulling it would be merely displacement activity.
May is done for. That deal will never pass. If she persists in trying to hammer it through after Parliament rejects it then she will still be toppled as Prime Minister, because she'll end up destroying her own party.
(Note: given my past record in making predictions, the deal will probably now pass and May will win a snap election after Brexit with a 100 seat majority)
The Tory party needs a nice quiet lie down somewhere.
It looks like some form of split is inevitable. The Tories won’t be the party of no deal, no matter how much some activists might want it.
The Tory Party won't let itself be split b see cause Labour put naked partisan ambition ahead of the economy and democracy. Even pro-dealers like me wouldn't split over it. Maybe a handful of elitist social Democrat types like Grieve and Soubry might go, but it will be a tidy number. If Labour want to try to blackmail the country into Remaining we should call their bluff.
If a cliff edge, unplanned no deal happens, the Tories are likely finished away. United or not. And I speak as an otherwise conservative voter.
Oh we will get hammered in the next general election for sure. But five years of Corbyn-McDonell-Abbott would finish Labour even harder. Which side would win after that is anyone's guess, but five years of economic suffering and mass immigration is only going to result in more anger and polarization. The politics of Grieve and Umunna will be completely killed off for a generation. But if that's what they want then they can go ahead and vote down the deal. They will only have themselves to blame.
If a Corbyn-McDonnell Labour government crashes the economy as badly as generally suggested by Tories, and the rest of the world economy carries on unperturbed, then we would be likely to see mass emigration, not immigration.
May is done for. That deal will never pass. If she persists in trying to hammer it through after Parliament rejects it then she will still be toppled as Prime Minister, because she'll end up destroying her own party.
(Note: given my past record in making predictions, the deal will probably now pass and May will win a snap election after Brexit with a 100 seat majority)
The Tory party needs a nice quiet lie down somewhere.
It looks like some form of split is inevitable. The Tories won’t be the party of no deal, no matter how much some activists might want it.
The Tory Party won't let itself be split b see cause Labour put naked partisan ambition ahead of the economy and democracy. Even pro-dealers like me wouldn't split over it. Maybe a handful of elitist social Democrat types like Grieve and Soubry might go, but it will be a tidy number. If Labour want to try to blackmail the country into Remaining we should call their bluff.
If a cliff edge, unplanned no deal happens, the Tories are likely finished away. United or not. And I speak as an otherwise conservative voter.
Oh we will get hammered in the next general election for sure. But five years of Corbyn-McDonell-Abbott would finish Labour even harder. Which side would win after that is anyone's guess, but five years of economic suffering and mass immigration is only going to result in more anger and polarization. The politics of Grieve and Umunna will be completely killed off for a generation. But if that's what they want then they can go ahead and vote down the deal. They will only have themselves to blame.
I think you do also have to remember that a moderate Labour party would likely be walking it in the polls right now. After the extremes of the Tory Brexit mission and Corbyn, suspect a proper social democratic alternative starts to look pretty attractive. I might even vote for it.
Labour would abolish Thatcher-era laws preventing workers in the UK from taking industrial action in solidarity with their counterparts in other countries, the shadow chancellor has announced.
At an event in Airdrie, John McDonnell pledged that a Labour government would restore trade union rights by repealing legislation that undermines the ability of workers to take “collective action and acts of solidarity”.
If the deal goes down, we will have a hard Brexit and five years of this. Best of luck everyone.
If that's the case, and we are facing this in mid March then the only sensible option is revoking A50 (depending on Monday). That's a much better backstop than all the other ones discussed....
Ideally there is a deal in the meantime but revocation (to rethink out position vis a vis Europe) is clearly better than no deal in that scenario. Anyone longing for no deal is bonkers.
No that will destroy the Tory party and usher in Labour and this madness.
The only solution is to just get on with it one way or another, put Brexit behind us (no matter what happens it won't be as bad as the Chicken Licken's fear) and get on with taking the fight to this socialist madness.
Of course the EU see us a potential threat once we’ve left. Deregulation, lowering tax rates and regaining control of fishing are three of the big wins from Brexit before you start on the EU’s dependence on the City.
What never ceases to amaze me is May’s,incompetence and weakness, shared by those who support her, in giving that away for nothing. A co promise assumes we’ve got something of value for what, of value, we have given up. That is palpably notthe case. The EU have simply intimidated and bullied May into giving them everything g they want for nothing in return.
The Tory Party might well be your party, but it’s mine too. As you seek to lecture about compromise, you might want to bear that in mind.
My prediction (which I have little faith in but believe to be more likely than the dozen or so alternatives that I can identify): May is defeated or pulls vote, goes to EU for crises last ditch negotiations and gets a significant concession on the backstop. Gets it through with big labour abstentions, split iin ERG, lib Dems split / abstain, DUP abstain or vote for. The likely concession is either a time limit or international arbitration.
I thought there was already arbitration in the current deal?
Yes, and the time limit defeats the point of having the backstop in the first place. And the DUP won't vote for any kind of backstop regardless. Oh, and the DUP have promised to bring down the Government if the backstop goes through.
The deal is dead.
May should send in the DUP for Round 2...... "If they are happy with the deal, I am happy."
Bingo! She should have done that for Round 1. Moron.
Hardly. While it would have been fatal for her government, if she had a deal which commanded more unity among her own party and/or tempted sufficient numbers of labour realists to back it, that would be a reasonable stratagem to get it through than simply placating the DUP - because some number of her own MPs were always going to vote against as they support no deal (if nowhere near the number that are objecting to this) the DUP alone would not secure it.
I disagree. A deal which had the backing of the DUP would likely have ultimately United the Tory MPs too. To secure Brexit for the sceptics and to avoid no deal for the Europhiles. The sceptics and more oppose this deal for the same reason as the DUP do.
May is done for. That deal will never pass. If she persists in trying to hammer it through after Parliament rejects it then she will still be toppled as Prime Minister, because she'll end up destroying her own party.
(Note: given my past record in making predictions, the deal will probably now pass and May will win a snap election after Brexit with a 100 seat majority)
The Tory party needs a nice quiet lie down somewhere.
Or a great big fist-fight.
Although, it would probably just end up forming a queue to have a go at Michael "Since Ed Balls left, the Most Punchable Face In Politics" Gove.....
There are two ways to put a fire out
1) Pour on water / blanket / etc 2) Add more fuel so it completely burns itself out
Method 1) has failed so it looks like the Conservatives are going to give Method 2) a try. The only trouble is that my popcorn has run out
May is done for. That deal will never pass. If she persists in trying to hammer it through after Parliament rejects it then she will still be toppled as Prime Minister, because she'll end up destroying her own party.
(Note: given my past record in making predictions, the deal will probably now pass and May will win a snap election after Brexit with a 100 seat majority)
The Tory party needs a nice quiet lie down somewhere.
Judging by that first quote, in a straitjacket and somewhere padded.
May is done for. That deal will never pass. If she persists in trying to hammer it through after Parliament rejects it then she will still be toppled as Prime Minister, because she'll end up destroying her own party.
(Note: given my past record in making predictions, the deal will probably now pass and May will win a snap election after Brexit with a 100 seat majority)
The Tory party needs a nice quiet lie down somewhere.
It looks like some form of split is inevitable. The Tories won’t be the party of no deal, no matter how much some activists might want it.
The Tory Party won't let itself be split b see cause Labour put naked partisan ambition ahead of the economy and democracy. Even pro-dealers like me wouldn't split over it.
Well you should. The factions of the Tories detest one another, acting with total contempt toward the other, and the idea that has not reached a point where you cannot reasonably work together within the same party is absolutely nonsense. They need to be in separate parties which can work together on some issues, rather than keep up the current pretence.
Unless one side just downright beats the other into submission as has happened with Labour, a split is eminently sensible.
Yes, and Labour's component parts also detest one another, but they didn't end up splitting.
A Conservative collapse is possible, but only under extreme circumstances - because each side in such a division would know that they were either likely or certain to suffer a ruinous electoral defeat - unless, as I've previously postulated, the Tory and Labour centrists both jump ship at the same time, and even that would be very risky. Especially for pro-EU Tories, who would be abandoning most of their activists and most of their voters at the same time.
Anyway, we are some distance from the prospect of a split yet. Firstly we must wait to see what happens at the start of next week.
Posted the Prodi story on the last thread and agree it's important. But what I think he primarily means is that they'll negotiate reasonable arrangements so everything doesn't grind to a halt on March 31. In that sense I think the Project Fear Mk 2 arguments are exaggerated - literally nobody on the planet wants us to run out of medicine, planes to stop flying etc. By "no deal" what we should mean is "a reasonable trading arrangement working towards an WTO arrangement". I wouldn't like it, but it wouldn't be the end of the world.
There are two sorts of "no deal". This is the better one, where the sides realise far enough in advance that no deal is possible to take corrective measures before Exit Day.
No deal by accident remains a significant threat...
There was an interesting piece by Philip Collins in the Times yesterday, arguing that the only way that Theresa May can get a parliamentary majority for her deal, or something like it, is to get parliament to close off one of the other possibilities (referendum or no deal). His reasoning was that getting it down to two possibilities would force a sufficient number of those currently against her deal to accept it as a compromise to avoid the other outcome.
I think that is an astute point. His proposed way forward was to encourage an amendment specifying a referendum, on the assumption that that wouldn't pass. I find that a little odd, because I think it would pass, but the technique works just as well if the ruled-out option is No Deal.
It may be that in the next few days one of the non-deal options will be ruled out anyway by one of the amendments already tabled. That is perhaps the last remaining hope for a compromise swing behind the PM, but I'm not holding my breath.
Labour would abolish Thatcher-era laws preventing workers in the UK from taking industrial action in solidarity with their counterparts in other countries, the shadow chancellor has announced.
At an event in Airdrie, John McDonnell pledged that a Labour government would restore trade union rights by repealing legislation that undermines the ability of workers to take “collective action and acts of solidarity”.
If the deal goes down, we will have a hard Brexit and five years of this. Best of luck everyone.
If that's the case, and we are facing this in mid March then the only sensible option is revoking A50 (depending on Monday). That's a much better backstop than all the other ones discussed....
Ideally there is a deal in the meantime but revocation (to rethink out position vis a vis Europe) is clearly better than no deal in that scenario. Anyone longing for no deal is bonkers.
No that will destroy the Tory party and usher in Labour and this madness.
The only solution is to just get on with it one way or another, put Brexit behind us (no matter what happens it won't be as bad as the Chicken Licken's fear) and get on with taking the fight to this socialist madness.
Not all of us care about the Tory party. The current set up is madness too, so what is there to lose?
Labour would abolish Thatcher-era laws preventing workers in the UK from taking industrial action in solidarity with their counterparts in other countries, the shadow chancellor has announced.
At an event in Airdrie, John McDonnell pledged that a Labour government would restore trade union rights by repealing legislation that undermines the ability of workers to take “collective action and acts of solidarity”.
If the deal goes down, we will have a hard Brexit and five years of this. Best of luck everyone.
If that's the case, and we are facing this in mid March then the only sensible option is revoking A50 (depending on Monday). That's a much better backstop than all the other ones discussed....
Ideally there is a deal in the meantime but revocation (to rethink out position vis a vis Europe) is clearly better than no deal in that scenario. Anyone longing for no deal is bonkers.
No that will destroy the Tory party and usher in Labour and this madness.
The only solution is to just get on with it one way or another, put Brexit behind us (no matter what happens it won't be as bad as the Chicken Licken's fear) and get on with taking the fight to this socialist madness.
Not all of us care about the Tory party. The current set up is madness too, so what is there to lose?
There's no madness so bad that it can't be made worse by McDonnell and Corbyn.
Labour would abolish Thatcher-era laws preventing workers in the UK from taking industrial action in solidarity with their counterparts in other countries, the shadow chancellor has announced.
At an event in Airdrie, John McDonnell pledged that a Labour government would restore trade union rights by repealing legislation that undermines the ability of workers to take “collective action and acts of solidarity”.
If the deal goes down, we will have a hard Brexit and five years of this. Best of luck everyone.
If that's the case, and we are facing this in mid March then the only sensible option is revoking A50 (depending on Monday). That's a much better backstop than all the other ones discussed....
Ideally there is a deal in the meantime but revocation (to rethink out position vis a vis Europe) is clearly better than no deal in that scenario. Anyone longing for no deal is bonkers.
No that will destroy the Tory party and usher in Labour and this madness.
The only solution is to just get on with it one way or another, put Brexit behind us (no matter what happens it won't be as bad as the Chicken Licken's fear) and get on with taking the fight to this socialist madness.
Not all of us care about the Tory party. The current set up is madness too, so what is there to lose?
Also the UK can cope with either Brexit or Corbyn - but not both. No deal makes the combo way more likely.
There was an interesting piece by Philip Collins in the Times yesterday, arguing that the only way that Theresa May can get a parliamentary majority for her deal, or something like it, is to get parliament to close off one of the other possibilities (referendum or no deal). His reasoning was that getting it down to two possibilities would force a sufficient number of those currently against her deal to accept it as a compromise to avoid the other outcome.
I think that is an astute point. His proposed way forward was to encourage an amendment specifying a referendum, on the assumption that that wouldn't pass. I find that a little odd, because I think it would pass, but the technique works just as well if the ruled-out option is No Deal.
It may be that in the next few days one of the non-deal options will be ruled out anyway by one of the amendments already tabled. That is perhaps the last remaining hope for a compromise swing behind the PM, but I'm not holding my breath.
Agree with that approach. Although that presumes that sanity prevails!
Labour would abolish Thatcher-era laws preventing workers in the UK from taking industrial action in solidarity with their counterparts in other countries, the shadow chancellor has announced.
At an event in Airdrie, John McDonnell pledged that a Labour government would restore trade union rights by repealing legislation that undermines the ability of workers to take “collective action and acts of solidarity”.
If the deal goes down, we will have a hard Brexit and five years of this. Best of luck everyone.
If that's the case, and we are facing this in mid March then the only sensible option is revoking A50 (depending on Monday). That's a much better backstop than all the other ones discussed....
Ideally there is a deal in the meantime but revocation (to rethink out position vis a vis Europe) is clearly better than no deal in that scenario. Anyone longing for no deal is bonkers.
No that will destroy the Tory party and usher in Labour and this madness.
The only solution is to just get on with it one way or another, put Brexit behind us (no matter what happens it won't be as bad as the Chicken Licken's fear) and get on with taking the fight to this socialist madness.
Not all of us care about the Tory party. The current set up is madness too, so what is there to lose?
Also the UK can cope with either Brexit or Corbyn - but not both. No deal makes the combo way more likely.
And makes Corbyn more dangerous, because McDonnell won't be constrained by pesky EU rules on things like state aid, free movement of capital, and protection of property rights.
Labour would abolish Thatcher-era laws preventing workers in the UK from taking industrial action in solidarity with their counterparts in other countries, the shadow chancellor has announced.
At an event in Airdrie, John McDonnell pledged that a Labour government would restore trade union rights by repealing legislation that undermines the ability of workers to take “collective action and acts of solidarity”.
If the deal goes down, we will have a hard Brexit and five years of this. Best of luck everyone.
If that's the case, and we are facing this in mid March then the only sensible option is revoking A50 (depending on Monday). That's a much better backstop than all the other ones discussed....
Ideally there is a deal in the meantime but revocation (to rethink out position vis a vis Europe) is clearly better than no deal in that scenario. Anyone longing for no deal is bonkers.
No that will destroy the Tory party and usher in Labour and this madness.
The only solution is to just get on with it one way or another, put Brexit behind us (no matter what happens it won't be as bad as the Chicken Licken's fear) and get on with taking the fight to this socialist madness.
Not all of us care about the Tory party. The current set up is madness too, so what is there to lose?
If you don't want Marxism sweeping into power you should care about the Tories.
The current setup may be madness but that's why we voted to leave it
Labour would abolish Thatcher-era laws preventing workers in the UK from taking industrial action in solidarity with their counterparts in other countries, the shadow chancellor has announced.
At an event in Airdrie, John McDonnell pledged that a Labour government would restore trade union rights by repealing legislation that undermines the ability of workers to take “collective action and acts of solidarity”.
So LAB is promising us a return to the "Winter of Discontent" - sound like a vote winner
Sadly it might be. Those old enough to remember are not voting Labour anyway.
On the other hand, nobody under thirty knows what the word "solidarity" means.
There was an interesting piece by Philip Collins in the Times yesterday, arguing that the only way that Theresa May can get a parliamentary majority for her deal, or something like it, is to get parliament to close off one of the other possibilities (referendum or no deal).
That will have to be referendum, then, because no deal is the default by treaty and so can't be ruled out other than by positively agreeing to a specific other thing to replace it.
There was an interesting piece by Philip Collins in the Times yesterday, arguing that the only way that Theresa May can get a parliamentary majority for her deal, or something like it, is to get parliament to close off one of the other possibilities (referendum or no deal). His reasoning was that getting it down to two possibilities would force a sufficient number of those currently against her deal to accept it as a compromise to avoid the other outcome.
I think that is an astute point. His proposed way forward was to encourage an amendment specifying a referendum, on the assumption that that wouldn't pass. I find that a little odd, because I think it would pass, but the technique works just as well if the ruled-out option is No Deal.
It may be that in the next few days one of the non-deal options will be ruled out anyway by one of the amendments already tabled. That is perhaps the last remaining hope for a compromise swing behind the PM, but I'm not holding my breath.
Agree with that approach. Although that presumes that sanity prevails!
Yes, I fear it is too late and the deal-trashing has gathered too much momentum of its own. Maybe as an approach combined with some cosmetic renegotiation by the EU it might work, but it's bloody difficult to see quite how starting from here.
There was an interesting piece by Philip Collins in the Times yesterday, arguing that the only way that Theresa May can get a parliamentary majority for her deal, or something like it, is to get parliament to close off one of the other possibilities (referendum or no deal).
That will have to be referendum, then, because no deal is the default by treaty and so can't be ruled out other than by positively agreeing to a specific other thing to replace it.
There was an interesting piece by Philip Collins in the Times yesterday, arguing that the only way that Theresa May can get a parliamentary majority for her deal, or something like it, is to get parliament to close off one of the other possibilities (referendum or no deal). His reasoning was that getting it down to two possibilities would force a sufficient number of those currently against her deal to accept it as a compromise to avoid the other outcome.
I think that is an astute point. His proposed way forward was to encourage an amendment specifying a referendum, on the assumption that that wouldn't pass. I find that a little odd, because I think it would pass, but the technique works just as well if the ruled-out option is No Deal.
It may be that in the next few days one of the non-deal options will be ruled out anyway by one of the amendments already tabled. That is perhaps the last remaining hope for a compromise swing behind the PM, but I'm not holding my breath.
Agree with that approach. Although that presumes that sanity prevails!
Yes, I fear it is too late and the deal-trashing has gathered too much momentum of its own. Maybe as an approach combined with some cosmetic renegotiation by the EU it might work, but it's bloody difficult to see quite how starting from here.
Pretty much all the deal trashing centres on the backstop. Solve the backstop, you save the deal.
Labour would abolish Thatcher-era laws preventing workers in the UK from taking industrial action in solidarity with their counterparts in other countries, the shadow chancellor has announced.
At an event in Airdrie, John McDonnell pledged that a Labour government would restore trade union rights by repealing legislation that undermines the ability of workers to take “collective action and acts of solidarity”.
I've got a feeling the workers who are being asked to strike and lose money in solidarity with some barmy lefties in other countries might end up telling McDonnell and his mates to sod off.
No that will destroy the Tory party and usher in Labour and this madness.
The only solution is to just get on with it one way or another, put Brexit behind us (no matter what happens it won't be as bad as the Chicken Licken's fear) and get on with taking the fight to this socialist madness.
Not all of us care about the Tory party. The current set up is madness too, so what is there to lose?
This Government is crap. It's also presiding over a regime of low interest rates, moderate inflation and very low unemployment. Life is hard for a lot of people, but for many others it has never been better. We are not in recession, much of the middle class and most pensioners are well-off by historic standards, and so yes, much of the country has an awful lot still to lose from any flirtation with socialism, which is what they suspect that Corbyn has planned for them. Socialism, as distinct from social democracy, is a hopeless and destructive creed that has failed spectacularly absolutely everywhere it has ever been tried.
I am always reminded of the voter interviewed on television some years ago, who claimed that over the entire course of her life every Prime Minister who had come and gone had been worse than the last one. The obvious fear is that Theresa May's ministry will come to be looked upon as a golden age if it is followed by that of Jeremy Corbyn.
There are plenty of people in this country right now who might be prepared to roll the dice and chance a soft Left administration, yet who will still not touch the current Labour leadership with a ten foot barge pole, regardless of how uselessly the Tories perform. The Hugo Chavez Fan Club may be seen as a viable option by the poor, the desperate and Labour's habit voters but many, many other people are terrified of them. Why else is it that the opinion polls aren't moving? It's not because the current Government is admired, that's for sure.
Pretty much all the deal trashing centres on the backstop. Solve the backstop, you save the deal.
Maybe. I suspect that it's just an excuse, TBH (except for the DUP, which is an important exception). But it is certainly true that if MPs are looking for an excuse to row back from their positions, something on the backstop would be the best fig-leaf to deploy.
Prodi may be right that the EU will try and not avoid full scale tariff war with the UK but to all intents and purposes No Deal would soon mean some tariffs and the worst recession in the UK for decades, chaos at the ports, shortages of food and medicines, riots in short order and Sturgeon likely pushing for independence as well as severe problems at the Irish border.
That is why if May's Deal goes down as Rudd makes clear the Cabinet is moving towards Norway plus Customs Union which would be the only sane Brexit left, though with free movement required clearly worse than May's Deal
Labour would abolish Thatcher-era laws preventing workers in the UK from taking industrial action in solidarity with their counterparts in other countries, the shadow chancellor has announced.
At an event in Airdrie, John McDonnell pledged that a Labour government would restore trade union rights by repealing legislation that undermines the ability of workers to take “collective action and acts of solidarity”.
If the deal goes down, we will have a hard Brexit and five years of this. Best of luck everyone.
If that's the case, and we are facing this in mid March then the only sensible option is revoking A50 (depending on Monday). That's a much better backstop than all the other ones discussed....
Ideally there is a deal in the meantime but revocation (to rethink out position vis a vis Europe) is clearly better than no deal in that scenario. Anyone longing for no deal is bonkers.
No that will destroy the Tory party and usher in Labour and this madness.
The only solution is to just get on with it one way or another, put Brexit behind us (no matter what happens it won't be as bad as the Chicken Licken's fear) and get on with taking the fight to this socialist madness.
Not all of us care about the Tory party. The current set up is madness too, so what is there to lose?
If you don't want Marxism sweeping into power you should care about the Tories.
The current setup may be madness but that's why we voted to leave it
If we get No Deal it is hard to see how Corbyn does not become PM sooner rather than later when just 27% of voters back No Deal with YouGov and Deal trounces No Deal 65% to 35% head to head
Prodi may be right that the EU will try and not avoid full scale tariff war with the UK but to all intents and purposes No Deal would soon mean some tariffs and the worst recession in the UK for decades, chaos at the ports, shortages of food and medicines, riots in short order and Sturgeon likely pushing for independence as well as severe problems at the Irish border.
You've really bought into the Doom Porn, haven't you?
Looking forward to next week,current Betfair odds in the next Con leader market indicate a 5 way fight.Very little in it between Javid,Raab,Hunt,Johnson or Gove all around the 8-1 mark. I'm on Javid and Gove at double figure odds and will not be adding to this position If there is to be an outsider at long odds it may well be a woman and Penny Mordaunt has been reported as preparing a bid so 25-1 may at least be a back to lay. This could be a very active market in the next few days if Politics Home's report of the cabinet telling May if she loses the vote she has to go,is to be taken seriously.Brady could have his 48 letters by Wednesday too. The only question remains whether May resigns before she's thrown off the cliff to go out with a bit of honour and dignity.Alistair Meeks' recent post could well to be prophetic.
Of course the EU see us a potential threat once we’ve left. Deregulation, lowering tax rates and regaining control of fishing are three of the big wins from Brexit before you start on the EU’s dependence on the City.
What never ceases to amaze me is May’s,incompetence and weakness, shared by those who support her, in giving that away for nothing. A co promise assumes we’ve got something of value for what, of value, we have given up. That is palpably notthe case. The EU have simply intimidated and bullied May into giving them everything g they want for nothing in return.
The Tory Party might well be your party, but it’s mine too. As you seek to lecture about compromise, you might want to bear that in mind.
Without compromise Brexit will fail
Not compromising seems to be working for the EU given May’s abysmal deal.
There was an interesting piece by Philip Collins in the Times yesterday, arguing that the only way that Theresa May can get a parliamentary majority for her deal, or something like it, is to get parliament to close off one of the other possibilities (referendum or no deal). His reasoning was that getting it down to two possibilities would force a sufficient number of those currently against her deal to accept it as a compromise to avoid the other outcome.
I think that is an astute point. His proposed way forward was to encourage an amendment specifying a referendum, on the assumption that that wouldn't pass. I find that a little odd, because I think it would pass, but the technique works just as well if the ruled-out option is No Deal.
It may be that in the next few days one of the non-deal options will be ruled out anyway by one of the amendments already tabled. That is perhaps the last remaining hope for a compromise swing behind the PM, but I'm not holding my breath.
I don't think that you can rule out either option. No deal will always be possible until either Article 50 is revoked or an Act passing a Withdrawal Agreement with the EU receives Royal Assent and becomes UK law. Similarly, a referendum is always possible if you can believe that the EU will extend Article 50 to provide the time for one to happen and that you can pressure the government into holding one by voting against the deal.
Ultimately then the Commons will force Theresa May to make her own choice. Referendum or No Deal?
If she really believed what she had said about No Deal being better than a bad deal then she might be prepared to choose no deal. However, I think it is more likely that she would back a Deal vs Remain referendum as the best chance of seeing her deal approved. The main problem she faces is whether she can win a VONC to see such a plan through.
Prodi may be right that the EU will try and not avoid full scale tariff war with the UK but to all intents and purposes No Deal would soon mean some tariffs and the worst recession in the UK for decades, chaos at the ports, shortages of food and medicines, riots in short order and Sturgeon likely pushing for independence as well as severe problems at the Irish border.
That is why if May's Deal goes down as Rudd makes clear the Cabinet is moving towards Norway plus Customs Union which would be the only sane Brexit left, though with free movement required clearly worse than May's Deal
In an age of floating exchange rates, tariffs are not the threat to trade that non tariff barriers are.
Looking forward to next week,current Betfair odds in the next Con leader market indicate a 5 way fight.Very little in it between Javid,Raab,Hunt,Johnson or Gove all around the 8-1 mark. I'm on Javid and Gove at double figure odds and will not be adding to this position If there is to be an outsider at long odds it may well be a woman and Penny Mordaunt has been reported as preparing a bid so 25-1 may at least be a back to lay. This could be a very active market in the next few days if Politics Home's report of the cabinet telling May if she loses the vote she has to go,is to be taken seriously.Brady could have his 48 letters by Wednesday too. The only question remains whether May resigns before she's thrown off the cliff to go out with a bit of honour and dignity.Alistair Meeks' recent post could well to be prophetic.
Might as well stick with May as have Gove, Javid or Hunt. Johnson would be awful. Raab would be a sensible choice as would Mordaunt but so too would a Remainer like Mercer.
May is done for. That deal will never pass. If she persists in trying to hammer it through after Parliament rejects it then she will still be toppled as Prime Minister, because she'll end up destroying her own party.
(Note: given my past record in making predictions, the deal will probably now pass and May will win a snap election after Brexit with a 100 seat majority)
The Tory party needs a nice quiet lie down somewhere.
It looks like some form of split is inevitable. The Tories won’t be the party of no deal, no matter how much some activists might want it.
The Tory Party won't let itself be split b see cause Labour put naked partisan ambition ahead of the economy and democracy. Even pro-dealers like me wouldn't split over it. Maybe a handful of elitist social Democrat types like Grieve and Soubry might go, but it will be a tidy number. If Labour want to try to blackmail the country into Remaining we should call their bluff.
If a cliff edge, unplanned no deal happens, the Tories are likely finished away. United or not. And I speak as an otherwise conservative voter.
Oh we will get hammered in the next general election for sure. But five years of Corbyn-McDonell-Abbott would finish Labour even harder. Which side would win after that is anyone's guess, but five years of economic suffering and mass immigration is only going to result in more anger and polarization. The politics of Grieve and Umunna will be completely killed off for a generation. But if that's what they want then they can go ahead and vote down the deal. They will only have themselves to blame.
If a Corbyn-McDonnell Labour government crashes the economy as badly as generally suggested by Tories, and the rest of the world economy carries on unperturbed, then we would be likely to see mass emigration, not immigration.
Possibly - though it'll depend on whether there are capital controls - because anyone with even modest assets isn't going to be keen on leaving with nothing in their pocket.
Am I the only Conservative who has now got to the stage that I'm no longer bothered about Brexit - sovereignty, trade deals, freedom of movement, in fact the lot - I couldn't care less.
The only concern now is insurance against McDonnell - and number 1 is to know that if I want to I can leave the country and take my assets with me.
Any deal / agreement which fits those criteria (and is a treaty which can't be amended) is fine with me.
May is done for. That deal will never pass. If she persists in trying to hammer it through after Parliament rejects it then she will still be toppled as Prime Minister, because she'll end up destroying her own party.
(Note: given my past record in making predictions, the deal will probably now pass and May will win a snap election after Brexit with a 100 seat majority)
The Tory party needs a nice quiet lie down somewhere.
It looks like some form of split is inevitable. The Tories won’t be the party of no deal, no matter how much some activists might want it.
The Tory Party won't let itself be split b see cause Labour put naked partisan ambition ahead of the economy and democracy. Even pro-dealers like me wouldn't split over it.
Well you should. The factions of the Tories detest one another, acting with total contempt toward the other, and the idea that has not reached a point where you cannot reasonably work together within the same party is absolutely nonsense. They need to be in separate parties which can work together on some issues, rather than keep up the current pretence.
Unless one side just downright beats the other into submission as has happened with Labour, a split is eminently sensible.
Yes, and Labour's component parts also detest one another, but they didn't end up splitting.
Because one side won and as there were already in opposition their infighting had no direct immediate consequences. The divisions of the Tories have made things ungovernable and they have one by one eroded any reason to vote for them. And I voted Tory for the first time in 2017 largely because of Corbyn (and the LDs putting no effort in locally to deserve a vote).
Obviously all parties have as their first priority the advancement of the party and a focus on its internal debates, but the Tories really have given no other impression than that the only card they have to play is they are not Corbyn. It's a strong card, but right now it is backed up by nothing, and anything decent looks to be in spite of them, and all they are interested in are their endless bloody battles withthe EU and chasing unicorns. If they split at least they would spend less time yelling at themselves then expecting the public to vote for them anyway.
Labour would abolish Thatcher-era laws preventing workers in the UK from taking industrial action in solidarity with their counterparts in other countries, the shadow chancellor has announced.
At an event in Airdrie, John McDonnell pledged that a Labour government would restore trade union rights by repealing legislation that undermines the ability of workers to take “collective action and acts of solidarity”.
I've got a feeling the workers who are being asked to strike and lose money in solidarity with some barmy lefties in other countries might end up telling McDonnell and his mates to sod off.
For the most part, yes. One helpful thing from this point of view is that union militancy has largely been eradicated from the private sector: where unions still survive (I'm a trades unionist, and there are quite a lot of us where I work,) it is because they work constructively with management and offer us useful benefits. I've never gone on strike, or even been balloted on one; the idea that your average worker in 2018 would be interested in buggering up their employer in order to strike in support of what would probably be some trumped-up, far-left political demo in another country is for the birds.
What this sort of initiative is about is providing a sop to the more radical public sector unions, especially those like the RMT that still have the power to cause mass misery for the general public, and might feel emboldened to do so more often under a Corbyn Government. Expect lots of very disruptive strikes by teachers, train drivers and the like if Labour get back in.
Labour would abolish Thatcher-era laws preventing workers in the UK from taking industrial action in solidarity with their counterparts in other countries, the shadow chancellor has announced.
At an event in Airdrie, John McDonnell pledged that a Labour government would restore trade union rights by repealing legislation that undermines the ability of workers to take “collective action and acts of solidarity”.
If the deal goes down, we will have a hard Brexit and five years of this. Best of luck everyone.
If that's the case, and we are facing this in mid March then the only sensible option is revoking A50 (depending on Monday). That's a much better backstop than all the other ones discussed....
Ideally there is a deal in the meantime but revocation (to rethink out position vis a vis Europe) is clearly better than no deal in that scenario. Anyone longing for no deal is bonkers.
No that will destroy the Tory party and usher in Labour and this madness.
The only solution is to just get on with it one way or another, put Brexit behind us (no matter what happens it won't be as bad as the Chicken Licken's fear) and get on with taking the fight to this socialist madness.
Not all of us care about the Tory party. The current set up is madness too, so what is there to lose?
Also the UK can cope with either Brexit or Corbyn - but not both. No deal makes the combo way more likely.
And makes Corbyn more dangerous, because McDonnell won't be constrained by pesky EU rules on things like state aid, free movement of capital, and protection of property rights.
Yes, hard Brexit plus Corbyn could see the end of our stable and prosperous democracy. Most people in most societies bout to hit disaster had no idea what was about to occur. My more optimistic take is that there isn't a significant revolutionary cadre in the UK and that one cannot be created before Corbyn / McDonell would lose power. I also don't think that depite the state of the Tories there is a high probability of a Labour majority at next election. Still, worrrying times for democratic pragmatists.
Of course the EU see us a potential threat once we’ve left. Deregulation, lowering tax rates and regaining control of fishing are three of the big wins from Brexit before you start on the EU’s dependence on the City.
What never ceases to amaze me is May’s,incompetence and weakness, shared by those who support her, in giving that away for nothing. A co promise assumes we’ve got something of value for what, of value, we have given up. That is palpably notthe case. The EU have simply intimidated and bullied May into giving them everything g they want for nothing in return.
The Tory Party might well be your party, but it’s mine too. As you seek to lecture about compromise, you might want to bear that in mind.
Without compromise Brexit will fail
Not compromising seems to be working for the EU given May’s abysmal deal.
They have made compromises, just not as many or as significant as the one'd we have made.
This Government is crap. It's also presiding over a regime of low interest rates, moderate inflation and very low unemployment. Life is hard for a lot of people, but for many others it has never been better. We are not in recession, much of the middle class and most pensioners are well-off by historic standards, and so yes, much of the country has an awful lot still to lose from any flirtation with socialism, which is what they suspect that Corbyn has planned for them. Socialism, as distinct from social democracy, is a hopeless and destructive creed that has failed spectacularly absolutely everywhere it has ever been tried.
I am always reminded of the voter interviewed on television some years ago, who claimed that over the entire course of her life every Prime Minister who had come and gone had been worse than the last one. The obvious fear is that Theresa May's ministry will come to be looked upon as a golden age if it is followed by that of Jeremy Corbyn.
There are plenty of people in this country right now who might be prepared to roll the dice and chance a soft Left administration, yet who will still not touch the current Labour leadership with a ten foot barge pole, regardless of how uselessly the Tories perform. The Hugo Chavez Fan Club may be seen as a viable option by the poor, the desperate and Labour's habit voters but many, many other people are terrified of them. Why else is it that the opinion polls aren't moving? It's not because the current Government is admired, that's for sure.
I'm no friend of this Government but it's hard to argue with your view. I'm still to be convinced McDonnell will dish up a genuinely Socialist economic policy in the next Labour Manifesto. I consider him a cleverer politician than Corbyn and it may be he will hide the Socialist wolf in Social Democratic sheep's clothing.
The problem for Social democracy is it was blamed for the financial crash of 2008 and the centre-left saw its reputation for economic management trashed. The Right chimed in with austerity but now that too seems to have run its course.
I'm also concerned as to how the global economic winds will be in the next 18-24 months - perversely, these may limit an incoming Labour Government's room for manoeuvre.
Of course the EU see us a potential threat once we’ve left. Deregulation, lowering tax rates and regaining control of fishing are three of the big wins from Brexit before you start on the EU’s dependence on the City.
What never ceases to amaze me is May’s,incompetence and weakness, shared by those who support her, in giving that away for nothing. A co promise assumes we’ve got something of value for what, of value, we have given up. That is palpably notthe case. The EU have simply intimidated and bullied May into giving them everything g they want for nothing in return.
The Tory Party might well be your party, but it’s mine too. As you seek to lecture about compromise, you might want to bear that in mind.
Without compromise Brexit will fail
Not compromising seems to be working for the EU given May’s abysmal deal.
They have made compromises, just not as many or as significant as the one'd we have made.
... Expect lots of very disruptive strikes by teachers, train drivers and the like if Labour get back in.
Yes, that will provide plenty of grim amusement in the event of a Corbyn government, once the brief honeymoon period of bribing public sector unions peters out as they keep demanding more and more. Since McDonnell and Corbyn invariably support any strike on any issue or no issue, I'm looking forward to them joining the picket lines against themselves.
Looking forward to next week,current Betfair odds in the next Con leader market indicate a 5 way fight.Very little in it between Javid,Raab,Hunt,Johnson or Gove all around the 8-1 mark. I'm on Javid and Gove at double figure odds and will not be adding to this position If there is to be an outsider at long odds it may well be a woman and Penny Mordaunt has been reported as preparing a bid so 25-1 may at least be a back to lay. This could be a very active market in the next few days if Politics Home's report of the cabinet telling May if she loses the vote she has to go,is to be taken seriously.Brady could have his 48 letters by Wednesday too. The only question remains whether May resigns before she's thrown off the cliff to go out with a bit of honour and dignity.Alistair Meeks' recent post could well to be prophetic.
May will survive a no confidence vote, no alternative Tory leader polls better and most poll worse than May
There was an interesting piece by Philip Collins in the Times yesterday, arguing that the only way that Theresa May can get a parliamentary majority for her deal, or something like it, is to get parliament to close off one of the other possibilities (referendum or no deal). His reasoning was that getting it down to two possibilities would force a sufficient number of those currently against her deal to accept it as a compromise to avoid the other outcome.
I think that is an astute point. His proposed way forward was to encourage an amendment specifying a referendum, on the assumption that that wouldn't pass. I find that a little odd, because I think it would pass, but the technique works just as well if the ruled-out option is No Deal.
It may be that in the next few days one of the non-deal options will be ruled out anyway by one of the amendments already tabled. That is perhaps the last remaining hope for a compromise swing behind the PM, but I'm not holding my breath.
Agree with that approach. Although that presumes that sanity prevails!
Yes, I fear it is too late and the deal-trashing has gathered too much momentum of its own. Maybe as an approach combined with some cosmetic renegotiation by the EU it might work, but it's bloody difficult to see quite how starting from here.
Pretty much all the deal trashing centres on the backstop. Solve the backstop, you save the deal.
I'm sure there's plenty else about it that lots do not like, people have raised very strongly worded concerns about the totality of the thing after all, but a concession on that point does seem to have the best chance of gaining several dozen more votes at the least because it would be a very clear concession from the EU.
Problem is we know there are EU nations who would like to reopen other parts of the agreement. Even if they are terrified of no deal and willing, after all this, to not have the backstop, what will they need to accept that chance? Let us not pretend they can concede something massive without expecting something in return - they have politics to consider as well, and giving that up for nothing is not going to fly.
But then we are back where we started and the ERG say that the new thing demanded is too much.
If she really believed what she had said about No Deal being better than a bad deal then she might be prepared to choose no deal. However, I think it is more likely that she would back a Deal vs Remain referendum as the best chance of seeing her deal approved. The main problem she faces is whether she can win a VONC to see such a plan through.
I take a very different position. The only way that Remainers will ever be reconciled to any form of agreed Brexit is if it stops No Deal. The people have already voted to Brexit, so she offers a "my deal or no deal" referendum to determine which. The Remainers can (take a risk and) abstain - or vote for her deal to unseat the Four Horsemen.
May's deal versus No Deal would clearly support her deal. Drama over (apart from some continuing blood-letting in the Tory party over her successor).
Prodi may be right that the EU will try and not avoid full scale tariff war with the UK but to all intents and purposes No Deal would soon mean some tariffs and the worst recession in the UK for decades, chaos at the ports, shortages of food and medicines, riots in short order and Sturgeon likely pushing for independence as well as severe problems at the Irish border.
You've really bought into the Doom Porn, haven't you?
Not Doom Porn, Doom reality. No Deal would make the Poll Tax look popular within a year
If Labour form a majority government, they will abolish the House of Lords, redraw constituency boundaries on population rather than electorates, enfranchise 16-year olds, and ban large individual and corporate donations to parties but not those from trade unions.
It seems very naive to me to think that McDonnell will happily give up power after 5 years, having waited for 30.
If she really believed what she had said about No Deal being better than a bad deal then she might be prepared to choose no deal. However, I think it is more likely that she would back a Deal vs Remain referendum as the best chance of seeing her deal approved. The main problem she faces is whether she can win a VONC to see such a plan through.
I take a very different position. The only way that Remainers will ever be reconciled to any form of agreed Brexit is if it stops No Deal. The people have already voted to Brexit, so she offers a "my deal or no deal" referendum to determine which. The Remainers can (take a risk and) abstain - or vote for her deal to unseat the Four Horsemen.
May's deal versus No Deal would clearly support her deal. Drama over (apart from some continuing blood-letting in the Tory party over her successor).
Good plan, apart from one inconvenient detail: How do you propose getting it through parliament?
Prodi may be right that the EU will try and not avoid full scale tariff war with the UK but to all intents and purposes No Deal would soon mean some tariffs and the worst recession in the UK for decades, chaos at the ports, shortages of food and medicines, riots in short order and Sturgeon likely pushing for independence as well as severe problems at the Irish border.
That is why if May's Deal goes down as Rudd makes clear the Cabinet is moving towards Norway plus Customs Union which would be the only sane Brexit left, though with free movement required clearly worse than May's Deal
In an age of floating exchange rates, tariffs are not the threat to trade that non tariff barriers are.
There would be plenty of non tariff barriers with No Deal too. No Deal followed most likely by PM Corbyn would trash the UK's reputation with large corporations and financial services companies and would take decades to get over, while Corbyn will be building a 'special relationship' with Caracas and Mexico City which at least have more sunshine
Because one side won and as there were already in opposition their infighting had no direct immediate consequences. The divisions of the Tories have made things ungovernable and they have one by one eroded any reason to vote for them. And I voted Tory for the first time in 2017 largely because of Corbyn (and the LDs putting no effort in locally to deserve a vote).
Obviously all parties have as their first priority the advancement of the party and a focus on its internal debates, but the Tories really have given no other impression than that the only card they have to play is they are not Corbyn. It's a strong card, but right now it is backed up by nothing, and anything decent looks to be in spite of them, and all they are interested in are their endless bloody battles withthe EU and chasing unicorns. If they split at least they would spend less time yelling at themselves then expecting the public to vote for them anyway.
And yet... they are not Corbyn :-)
The cultural and policy chasm between the factions in the Labour Party will make it harder for it to govern than the Tories. The Tories are only really at odds over Europe, and they only need to bung a few bribes at the DUP to keep a majority. Can you imagine what the combination of a socialist cabinet, obsessed with niche foreign policy positions and 1970s economic policies, a horrified cohort of social democrat backbenchers, and the Scottish Nationalists will look like in Government?
Looking forward to next week,current Betfair odds in the next Con leader market indicate a 5 way fight.Very little in it between Javid,Raab,Hunt,Johnson or Gove all around the 8-1 mark. I'm on Javid and Gove at double figure odds and will not be adding to this position If there is to be an outsider at long odds it may well be a woman and Penny Mordaunt has been reported as preparing a bid so 25-1 may at least be a back to lay. This could be a very active market in the next few days if Politics Home's report of the cabinet telling May if she loses the vote she has to go,is to be taken seriously.Brady could have his 48 letters by Wednesday too. The only question remains whether May resigns before she's thrown off the cliff to go out with a bit of honour and dignity.Alistair Meeks' recent post could well to be prophetic.
I can't see how 70+ letters don't go in, if she hasn't resigned within 24 hours of losing the vote by triple figures.
Of course the EU see us a potential threat once we’ve left. Deregulation, lowering tax rates and regaining control of fishing are three of the big wins from Brexit before you start on the EU’s dependence on the City.
What never ceases to amaze me is May’s,incompetence and weakness, shared by those who support her, in giving that away for nothing. A co promise assumes we’ve got something of value for what, of value, we have given up. That is palpably notthe case. The EU have simply intimidated and bullied May into giving them everything g they want for nothing in return.
The Tory Party might well be your party, but it’s mine too. As you seek to lecture about compromise, you might want to bear that in mind.
Without compromise Brexit will fail
Not compromising seems to be working for the EU given May’s abysmal deal.
They have made compromises, just not as many or as significant as the one'd we have made.
If she really believed what she had said about No Deal being better than a bad deal then she might be prepared to choose no deal. However, I think it is more likely that she would back a Deal vs Remain referendum as the best chance of seeing her deal approved. The main problem she faces is whether she can win a VONC to see such a plan through.
I take a very different position. The only way that Remainers will ever be reconciled to any form of agreed Brexit is if it stops No Deal. The people have already voted to Brexit, so she offers a "my deal or no deal" referendum to determine which. The Remainers can (take a risk and) abstain - or vote for her deal to unseat the Four Horsemen.
May's deal versus No Deal would clearly support her deal. Drama over (apart from some continuing blood-letting in the Tory party over her successor).
Good plan, apart from one inconvenient detail: How do you propose getting it through parliament?
The threat of an election. Tories frit of losing their seats; Labour MPs frit of inheriting an unresolved Brexit. Under PM Corbyn.
If she really believed what she had said about No Deal being better than a bad deal then she might be prepared to choose no deal. However, I think it is more likely that she would back a Deal vs Remain referendum as the best chance of seeing her deal approved. The main problem she faces is whether she can win a VONC to see such a plan through.
I take a very different position. The only way that Remainers will ever be reconciled to any form of agreed Brexit is if it stops No Deal. The people have already voted to Brexit, so she offers a "my deal or no deal" referendum to determine which. The Remainers can (take a risk and) abstain - or vote for her deal to unseat the Four Horsemen.
May's deal versus No Deal would clearly support her deal. Drama over (apart from some continuing blood-letting in the Tory party over her successor).
I would back a Deal v No Deal referendum, Deal would win it 65% to 35% with YouGov. Though the problem would be getting it through Parliament without Remainers blocking it
If she really believed what she had said about No Deal being better than a bad deal then she might be prepared to choose no deal. However, I think it is more likely that she would back a Deal vs Remain referendum as the best chance of seeing her deal approved. The main problem she faces is whether she can win a VONC to see such a plan through.
I take a very different position. The only way that Remainers will ever be reconciled to any form of agreed Brexit is if it stops No Deal. The people have already voted to Brexit, so she offers a "my deal or no deal" referendum to determine which. The Remainers can (take a risk and) abstain - or vote for her deal to unseat the Four Horsemen.
May's deal versus No Deal would clearly support her deal. Drama over (apart from some continuing blood-letting in the Tory party over her successor).
Good plan, apart from one inconvenient detail: How do you propose getting it through parliament?
The threat of an election. Tories frit of losing their seats; Labour MPs frit of inheriting an unresolved Brexit. Under PM Corbyn.
Doesn't have to lead to an election, but it has no realistic chance of leading to a Deal/NoDeal referendum. Those nice people Anna Soubry, Vince Cable and Hillary Benn just put down an amendment, making it a Deal vs Revoke referendum. Even Corbyn has said No Deal is not an option under any circumstances, so why would Labour support a referendum offering that as an option?
If she really believed what she had said about No Deal being better than a bad deal then she might be prepared to choose no deal. However, I think it is more likely that she would back a Deal vs Remain referendum as the best chance of seeing her deal approved. The main problem she faces is whether she can win a VONC to see such a plan through.
I take a very different position. The only way that Remainers will ever be reconciled to any form of agreed Brexit is if it stops No Deal. The people have already voted to Brexit, so she offers a "my deal or no deal" referendum to determine which. The Remainers can (take a risk and) abstain - or vote for her deal to unseat the Four Horsemen.
May's deal versus No Deal would clearly support her deal. Drama over (apart from some continuing blood-letting in the Tory party over her successor).
I can understand that, but all the impetus for a referendum comes from the Remain side. The smart move from the anti-deal Tory backbenchers would be to go to May and offer their support for the deal, on the proviso that it is ratified by a Deal/no-deal referendum. That way they ensure that there is a referendum without Remain on the ballot paper. That's not the strategy they are following at the moment though.
Looking forward to next week,current Betfair odds in the next Con leader market indicate a 5 way fight.Very little in it between Javid,Raab,Hunt,Johnson or Gove all around the 8-1 mark. I'm on Javid and Gove at double figure odds and will not be adding to this position If there is to be an outsider at long odds it may well be a woman and Penny Mordaunt has been reported as preparing a bid so 25-1 may at least be a back to lay. This could be a very active market in the next few days if Politics Home's report of the cabinet telling May if she loses the vote she has to go,is to be taken seriously.Brady could have his 48 letters by Wednesday too. The only question remains whether May resigns before she's thrown off the cliff to go out with a bit of honour and dignity.Alistair Meeks' recent post could well to be prophetic.
I can't see how 70+ letters don't go in, if she hasn't resigned within 24 hours of losing the vote by triple figures.
May won't resign, she knows all the alternatives poll worse and have no alternative Brexit plan via BINO or No Deal either of which would tear the party apart. So even if a VONC she would still win it
If she really believed what she had said about No Deal being better than a bad deal then she might be prepared to choose no deal. However, I think it is more likely that she would back a Deal vs Remain referendum as the best chance of seeing her deal approved. The main problem she faces is whether she can win a VONC to see such a plan through.
I take a very different position. The only way that Remainers will ever be reconciled to any form of agreed Brexit is if it stops No Deal. The people have already voted to Brexit, so she offers a "my deal or no deal" referendum to determine which. The Remainers can (take a risk and) abstain - or vote for her deal to unseat the Four Horsemen.
May's deal versus No Deal would clearly support her deal. Drama over (apart from some continuing blood-letting in the Tory party over her successor).
Good plan, apart from one inconvenient detail: How do you propose getting it through parliament?
Have all three options on the ballot: Deal; No Deal; Remain. Some incentive for everyone - and how, as a matter of principle, can they object ?
Of course the EU see us a potential threat once we’ve left. Deregulation, lowering tax rates and regaining control of fishing are three of the big wins from Brexit before you start on the EU’s dependence on the City.
What never ceases to amaze me is May’s,incompetence and weakness, shared by those who support her, in giving that away for nothing. A co promise assumes we’ve got something of value for what, of value, we have given up. That is palpably notthe case. The EU have simply intimidated and bullied May into giving them everything g they want for nothing in return.
The Tory Party might well be your party, but it’s mine too. As you seek to lecture about compromise, you might want to bear that in mind.
Without compromise Brexit will fail
Not compromising seems to be working for the EU given May’s abysmal deal.
They have made compromises, just not as many or as significant as the one'd we have made.
Such as .....?
We have been told the backstop, while hugely problematic for us, is not ideal for them either, to the point the Alliance party for instance claim it allows for some economic advantages to NI.
I'm not about to research it all line by line, more patient and intelligent people than me can try, but if you really believe we got absolutely nothing out of the two years, and that was all just down to May capitulating on absolutely everything, that is just not credible. And if you think they were that successful in doing that the idea they would concede anything now is moronic.
If she really believed what she had said about No Deal being better than a bad deal then she might be prepared to choose no deal. However, I think it is more likely that she would back a Deal vs Remain referendum as the best chance of seeing her deal approved. The main problem she faces is whether she can win a VONC to see such a plan through.
I take a very different position. The only way that Remainers will ever be reconciled to any form of agreed Brexit is if it stops No Deal. The people have already voted to Brexit, so she offers a "my deal or no deal" referendum to determine which. The Remainers can (take a risk and) abstain - or vote for her deal to unseat the Four Horsemen.
May's deal versus No Deal would clearly support her deal. Drama over (apart from some continuing blood-letting in the Tory party over her successor).
Good plan, apart from one inconvenient detail: How do you propose getting it through parliament?
Have all three options on the ballot: Deal; No Deal; Remain. Some incentive for everyone - and how, as a matter of principle, can they object ?
There was an interesting piece by Philip Collins in the Times yesterday, arguing that the only way that Theresa May can get a parliamentary majority for her deal, or something like it, is to get parliament to close off one of the other possibilities (referendum or no deal). His reasoning was that getting it down to two possibilities would force a sufficient number of those currently against her deal to accept it as a compromise to avoid the other outcome.
I think that is an astute point. His proposed way forward was to encourage an amendment specifying a referendum, on the assumption that that wouldn't pass. I find that a little odd, because I think it would pass, but the technique works just as well if the ruled-out option is No Deal.
It may be that in the next few days one of the non-deal options will be ruled out anyway by one of the amendments already tabled. That is perhaps the last remaining hope for a compromise swing behind the PM, but I'm not holding my breath.
Agree with that approach. Although that presumes that sanity prevails!
Yes, I fear it is too late and the deal-trashing has gathered too much momentum of its own. Maybe as an approach combined with some cosmetic renegotiation by the EU it might work, but it's bloody difficult to see quite how starting from here.
Pretty much all the deal trashing centres on the backstop. Solve the backstop, you save the deal.
I'm sure there's plenty else about it that lots do not like, people have raised very strongly worded concerns about the totality of the thing after all, but a concession on that point does seem to have the best chance of gaining several dozen more votes at the least because it would be a very clear concession from the EU.
Problem is we know there are EU nations who would like to reopen other parts of the agreement. Even if they are terrified of no deal and willing, after all this, to not have the backstop, what will they need to accept that chance? Let us not pretend they can concede something massive without expecting something in return - they have politics to consider as well, and giving that up for nothing is not going to fly.
But then we are back where we started and the ERG say that the new thing demanded is too much.
Only one nation needs to agree to resolve the backstop. Square the Republic of Ireland and you square the EU. As much as France and Spain and others have concerns of their own the backstop is only in for the Republic.
For the most part, yes. One helpful thing from this point of view is that union militancy has largely been eradicated from the private sector: where unions still survive (I'm a trades unionist, and there are quite a lot of us where I work,) it is because they work constructively with management and offer us useful benefits. I've never gone on strike, or even been balloted on one; the idea that your average worker in 2018 would be interested in buggering up their employer in order to strike in support of what would probably be some trumped-up, far-left political demo in another country is for the birds.
What this sort of initiative is about is providing a sop to the more radical public sector unions, especially those like the RMT that still have the power to cause mass misery for the general public, and might feel emboldened to do so more often under a Corbyn Government. Expect lots of very disruptive strikes by teachers, train drivers and the like if Labour get back in.
We already have some disruptive strikes on the railways and it may be that as the lines are brought back into public ownership there will be a relative honeymoon of harmony. Likewise militant teachers might cheer the end of the Academies and the big pay rises they will enjoy so I wouldn't assume militancy from Day 1 - far from it.
If she really believed what she had said about No Deal being better than a bad deal then she might be prepared to choose no deal. However, I think it is more likely that she would back a Deal vs Remain referendum as the best chance of seeing her deal approved. The main problem she faces is whether she can win a VONC to see such a plan through.
I take a very different position. The only way that Remainers will ever be reconciled to any form of agreed Brexit is if it stops No Deal. The people have already voted to Brexit, so she offers a "my deal or no deal" referendum to determine which. The Remainers can (take a risk and) abstain - or vote for her deal to unseat the Four Horsemen.
May's deal versus No Deal would clearly support her deal. Drama over (apart from some continuing blood-letting in the Tory party over her successor).
Good plan, apart from one inconvenient detail: How do you propose getting it through parliament?
Have all three options on the ballot: Deal; No Deal; Remain. Some incentive for everyone - and how, as a matter of principle, can they object ?
Principle? Hah! You new to politics?
Any one who opposes such a vote (ranked choice, of course) is effectively admitting they think that the majority of the electorate strongly object to their preferred solution.
Of course the EU see us a potential threat once we’ve left. Deregulation, lowering tax rates and regaining control of fishing are three of the big wins from Brexit before you start on the EU’s dependence on the City.
What never ceases to amaze me is May’s,incompetence and weakness, shared by those who support her, in giving that away for nothing. A co promise assumes we’ve got something of value for what, of value, we have given up. That is palpably notthe case. The EU have simply intimidated and bullied May into giving them everything g they want for nothing in return.
The Tory Party might well be your party, but it’s mine too. As you seek to lecture about compromise, you might want to bear that in mind.
Without compromise Brexit will fail
Not compromising seems to be working for the EU given May’s abysmal deal.
They have made compromises, just not as many or as significant as the one'd we have made.
Such as .....?
We have been told the backstop, while hugely problematic for us, is not ideal for them either, to the point the Alliance party for instance claim it allows for some economic advantages to NI.
I'm not about to research it all line by line, more patient and intelligent people than me can try, but if you really believe we got absolutely nothing out of the two years, and that was all just down to May capitulating on absolutely everything, that is just not credible. And if you think they were that successful in doing that the idea they would concede anything now is moronic.
The most important things the EU gave way on is that they have abandoned their red lines that low-friction access to the Single Market requires freedom of movement and that access on goods can't be separated from access on services. Pretty big concessions.
Of course the EU see us a potential threat once we’ve left. Deregulation, lowering tax rates and regaining control of fishing are three of the big wins from Brexit before you start on the EU’s dependence on the City.
What never ceases to amaze me is May’s,incompetence and weakness, shared by those who support her, in giving that away for nothing. A co promise assumes we’ve got something of value for what, of value, we have given up. That is palpably notthe case. The EU have simply intimidated and bullied May into giving them everything g they want for nothing in return.
The Tory Party might well be your party, but it’s mine too. As you seek to lecture about compromise, you might want to bear that in mind.
Without compromise Brexit will fail
Not compromising seems to be working for the EU given May’s abysmal deal.
They have made compromises, just not as many or as significant as the one'd we have made.
Such as .....?
We have been told the backstop, while hugely problematic for us, is not ideal for them either, to the point the Alliance party for instance claim it allows for some economic advantages to NI.
I'm not about to research it all line by line, more patient and intelligent people than me can try, but if you really believe we got absolutely nothing out of the two years, and that was all just down to May capitulating on absolutely everything, that is just not credible. And if you think they were that successful in doing that the idea they would concede anything now is moronic.
So you say but you can produce no examples. Such blind faith in May’s ability is misplaced in my view. The backstop was always an EU requirement. If they didn’t want it, they wouldn’t have asked for it. They got what they wanted and more.
Prodi may be right that the EU will try and not avoid full scale tariff war with the UK but to all intents and purposes No Deal would soon mean some tariffs and the worst recession in the UK for decades, chaos at the ports, shortages of food and medicines, riots in short order and Sturgeon likely pushing for independence as well as severe problems at the Irish border.
That is why if May's Deal goes down as Rudd makes clear the Cabinet is moving towards Norway plus Customs Union which would be the only sane Brexit left, though with free movement required clearly worse than May's Deal
In an age of floating exchange rates, tariffs are not the threat to trade that non tariff barriers are.
There would be plenty of non tariff barriers with No Deal too. No Deal followed most likely by PM Corbyn would trash the UK's reputation with large corporations and financial services companies and would take decades to get over, while Corbyn will be building a 'special relationship' with Caracas and Mexico City which at least have more sunshine
True - but no deal gives us complete flexibility over how best to manage our own economy and much more choice in trading partners.
If she really believed what she had said about No Deal being better than a bad deal then she might be prepared to choose no deal. However, I think it is more likely that she would back a Deal vs Remain referendum as the best chance of seeing her deal approved. The main problem she faces is whether she can win a VONC to see such a plan through.
I take a very different position. The only way that Remainers will ever be reconciled to any form of agreed Brexit is if it stops No Deal. The people have already voted to Brexit, so she offers a "my deal or no deal" referendum to determine which. The Remainers can (take a risk and) abstain - or vote for her deal to unseat the Four Horsemen.
May's deal versus No Deal would clearly support her deal. Drama over (apart from some continuing blood-letting in the Tory party over her successor).
That referendum would be pointless. Everyone knows it would end with the deal, hence any MP considering such a referendum may as well vote for the deal, if not now then on second refusal. It would be surpremely irresponsible for parliament to plunge us into the delay and uncertainty of a referendum only to end up back where we are now. If there is a vote it will be Remain v deal, because that is the vote that most in parliament want.
If she really believed what she had said about No Deal being better than a bad deal then she might be prepared to choose no deal. However, I think it is more likely that she would back a Deal vs Remain referendum as the best chance of seeing her deal approved. The main problem she faces is whether she can win a VONC to see such a plan through.
I take a very different position. The only way that Remainers will ever be reconciled to any form of agreed Brexit is if it stops No Deal. The people have already voted to Brexit, so she offers a "my deal or no deal" referendum to determine which. The Remainers can (take a risk and) abstain - or vote for her deal to unseat the Four Horsemen.
May's deal versus No Deal would clearly support her deal. Drama over (apart from some continuing blood-letting in the Tory party over her successor).
Good plan, apart from one inconvenient detail: How do you propose getting it through parliament?
Have all three options on the ballot: Deal; No Deal; Remain. Some incentive for everyone - and how, as a matter of principle, can they object ?
Principle? Hah! You new to politics?
Any one who opposes such a vote (ranked choice, of course) is effectively admitting they think that the majority of the electorate strongly object to their preferred solution.
Or might accidentally fall into it. If they think it's an unmitigated disaster, it would be irresponsible to risk it. As Nick P put it, you don't offer a choice between a placebo and poison.
Looking forward to next week,current Betfair odds in the next Con leader market indicate a 5 way fight.Very little in it between Javid,Raab,Hunt,Johnson or Gove all around the 8-1 mark. I'm on Javid and Gove at double figure odds and will not be adding to this position If there is to be an outsider at long odds it may well be a woman and Penny Mordaunt has been reported as preparing a bid so 25-1 may at least be a back to lay. This could be a very active market in the next few days if Politics Home's report of the cabinet telling May if she loses the vote she has to go,is to be taken seriously.Brady could have his 48 letters by Wednesday too. The only question remains whether May resigns before she's thrown off the cliff to go out with a bit of honour and dignity.Alistair Meeks' recent post could well to be prophetic.
I can't see how 70+ letters don't go in, if she hasn't resigned within 24 hours of losing the vote by triple figures.
May won't resign, she knows all the alternatives poll worse and have no alternative Brexit plan via BINO or No Deal either of which would tear the party apart. So even if a VONC she would still win it
She really really won't. She has one hope of not being ousted, driven by the fact no one wants to take over right now, and that's to attempt to renegotiate, something she has claimed cannot be done. What reason would any MP have for voting for May? Let's look at the options:
1) You're a May loyalist who thinks her deal is great - well it's been rejected so heavily it will never get through. You might as well still vote for her though. 2) You're a party loyalist who doesn't like the deal much but you follow your leader - well several cabinet members have already, before the vote is lost, talked about alternative options to be tried, and if they are openly doing that so will some loyalists, - something has to be tried and May might not be the best person to try it. Some will vote for her 3) You reluctantly backed the deal because the alternatives are not great - well unfortunately one will have to be tried, as May herself will admit, once parliament demolishes her deal> Given even she will have to say she'll try something else you may as well go for one of the people who have suggested that already. Most will vote against 4) New dealers - you didn't send in a letter but you believe a new deal can be negotiated, around 60 of you. None will vote for her 5) The ERG - enough said, none will vote for her 6)Boris Johnson - he wants to be PM, will not vote for her
Of course the EU see us a potential threat once we’ve left. Deregulation, lowering tax rates and regaining control of fishing are three of the big wins from Brexit before you start on the EU’s dependence on the City.
What never ceases to amaze me is May’s,incompetence and weakness, shared by those who support her, in giving that away for nothing. A co promise assumes we’ve got something of value for what, of value, we have given up. That is palpably notthe case. The EU have simply intimidated and bullied May into giving them everything g they want for nothing in return.
The Tory Party might well be your party, but it’s mine too. As you seek to lecture about compromise, you might want to bear that in mind.
Without compromise Brexit will fail
Not compromising seems to be working for the EU given May’s abysmal deal.
They have made compromises, just not as many or as significant as the one'd we have made.
Such as .....?
We have been told the backstop, while hugely problematic for us, is not ideal for them either, to the point the Alliance party for instance claim it allows for some economic advantages to NI.
I'm not about to research it all line by line, more patient and intelligent people than me can try, but if you really believe we got absolutely nothing out of the two years, and that was all just down to May capitulating on absolutely everything, that is just not credible. And if you think they were that successful in doing that the idea they would concede anything now is moronic.
So you say but you can produce no examples. Such blind faith in May’s ability is misplaced in my view. The backstop was always an EU requirement. If they didn’t want it, they wouldn’t have asked for it. They got what they wanted and more.
I don't have faith in May's ability at all, I find the idea the no matter how one sided we got nothing wildly implausible, which is no different to doom mongers in any other area. It's whiny, and falls into the trap of either pinning it all on one person - which suggests May has more control and ability than you believe she has - or that we the UK are useless, and yet somehow will succeed with your own preferred option. And I did give one example, the existence of a backstop was their demand, the nature is not necessarily precise what they want as Richard Nabavi suggests.
This Government is crap. It's also presiding over a regime of low interest rates, moderate inflation and very low unemployment. Life is hard for a lot of people, but for many others it has never been better. We are not in recession, much of the middle class and most pensioners are well-off by historic standards, and so yes, much of the country has an awful lot still to lose from any flirtation with socialism, which is what they suspect that Corbyn has planned for them. Socialism, as distinct from social democracy, is a hopeless and destructive creed that has failed spectacularly absolutely everywhere it has ever been tried.
I am always reminded of the voter interviewed on television some years ago, who claimed that over the entire course of her life every Prime Minister who had come and gone had been worse than the last one. The obvious fear is that Theresa May's ministry will come to be looked upon as a golden age if it is followed by that of Jeremy Corbyn.
There are plenty of people in this country right now who might be prepared to roll the dice and chance a soft Left administration, yet who will still not touch the current Labour leadership with a ten foot barge pole, regardless of how uselessly the Tories perform. The Hugo Chavez Fan Club may be seen as a viable option by the poor, the desperate and Labour's habit voters but many, many other people are terrified of them. Why else is it that the opinion polls aren't moving? It's not because the current Government is admired, that's for sure.
I'm no friend of this Government but it's hard to argue with your view. I'm still to be convinced McDonnell will dish up a genuinely Socialist economic policy in the next Labour Manifesto. I consider him a cleverer politician than Corbyn and it may be he will hide the Socialist wolf in Social Democratic sheep's clothing.
The problem for Social democracy is it was blamed for the financial crash of 2008 and the centre-left saw its reputation for economic management trashed. The Right chimed in with austerity but now that too seems to have run its course.
I'm also concerned as to how the global economic winds will be in the next 18-24 months - perversely, these may limit an incoming Labour Government's room for manoeuvre.
the problem here is people were offered socialism in 2017 and voted for it in large numbers.
Yes, hard Brexit plus Corbyn could see the end of our stable and prosperous democracy. Most people in most societies bout to hit disaster had no idea what was about to occur. My more optimistic take is that there isn't a significant revolutionary cadre in the UK and that one cannot be created before Corbyn / McDonell would lose power. I also don't think that depite the state of the Tories there is a high probability of a Labour majority at next election. Still, worrrying times for democratic pragmatists.
Nowadays, I try not to worry about anything related to politics, and to act merely as an interested observer. After all, it's not as if any of us has any power to affect any of it. There is, literally, no point in being worried about anything you have no influence over. It's like worrying about the inevitability of your own eventual death.
That said, I still wouldn't exactly be thrilled at the prospect of a Corbyn Government - but the likelihood of that cannot be accurately gauged at all until the Brexit end game has played out in full. If the Conservatives manage to get there without coming apart then they would be favourites to finish as the largest party at the following General Election in all but a totally catastrophic economic situation. The same people who were frightened of the prospect of Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister in 2017 will still be frightened of it in 2019, or in 2022 for that matter. We also ought to remember that, if the current Parliament runs its course, boundary reform will also go through. The combination of this, and the SNPs continued strength in Scotland, will make it very hard for Labour to win a General Election outright.
They've a better chance of coming to power as a minority, but their having to rely on the votes of the Scottish National Party to pass English domestic legislation would leave them with some explaining to do to large parts of the English electorate, to put it mildly.
This Government is crap. It's also presiding over a regime of low interest rates, moderate inflation and very low unemployment. Life is hard for a lot of people, but for many others it has never been better. We are not in recession, much of the middle class and most pensioners are well-off by historic standards, and so yes, much of the country has an awful lot still to lose from any flirtation with socialism, which is what they suspect that Corbyn has planned for them. Socialism, as distinct from social democracy, is a hopeless and destructive creed that has failed spectacularly absolutely everywhere it has ever been tried.
I am always reminded of the voter interviewed on television some years ago, who claimed that over the entire course of her life every Prime Minister who had come and gone had been worse than the last one. The obvious fear is that Theresa May's ministry will come to be looked upon as a golden age if it is followed by that of Jeremy Corbyn.
There are plenty of people in this country right now who might be prepared to roll the dice and chance a soft Left administration, yet who will still not touch the current Labour leadership with a ten foot barge pole, regardless of how uselessly the Tories perform. The Hugo Chavez Fan Club may be seen as a viable option by the poor, the desperate and Labour's habit voters but many, many other people are terrified of them. Why else is it that the opinion polls aren't moving? It's not because the current Government is admired, that's for sure.
I'm no friend of this Government but it's hard to argue with your view. I'm still to be convinced McDonnell will dish up a genuinely Socialist economic policy in the next Labour Manifesto. I consider him a cleverer politician than Corbyn and it may be he will hide the Socialist wolf in Social Democratic sheep's clothing.
The problem for Social democracy is it was blamed for the financial crash of 2008 and the centre-left saw its reputation for economic management trashed. The Right chimed in with austerity but now that too seems to have run its course.
I'm also concerned as to how the global economic winds will be in the next 18-24 months - perversely, these may limit an incoming Labour Government's room for manoeuvre.
the problem here is people were offered socialism in 2017 and voted for it in large numbers.
If she really believed what she had said about No Deal being better than a bad deal then she might be prepared to choose no deal. However, I think it is more likely that she would back a Deal vs Remain referendum as the best chance of seeing her deal approved. The main problem she faces is whether she can win a VONC to see such a plan through.
I take a very different position. The only way that Remainers will ever be reconciled to any form of agreed Brexit is if it stops No Deal. The people have already voted to Brexit, so she offers a "my deal or no deal" referendum to determine which. The Remainers can (take a risk and) abstain - or vote for her deal to unseat the Four Horsemen.
May's deal versus No Deal would clearly support her deal. Drama over (apart from some continuing blood-letting in the Tory party over her successor).
Good plan, apart from one inconvenient detail: How do you propose getting it through parliament?
Have all three options on the ballot: Deal; No Deal; Remain. Some incentive for everyone - and how, as a matter of principle, can they object ?
Principle? Hah! You new to politics?
Any one who opposes such a vote (ranked choice, of course) is effectively admitting they think that the majority of the electorate strongly object to their preferred solution.
Or might accidentally fall into it. If they think it's an unmitigated disaster, it would be irresponsible to risk it. As Nick P put it, you don't offer a choice between a placebo and poison.
A large slice of the electorate support each of the options. To engineer it off a referendum ballot which is to decide the future course of the country, just because you don't like it, doesn't seem terribly democratic to me.
And if the aim is to re-unite the country, anything else is almost guaranteed to fail.
Prodi may be right that the EU will try and not avoid full scale tariff war with the UK but to all intents and purposes No Deal would soon mean some tariffs and the worst recession in the UK for decades, chaos at the ports, shortages of food and medicines, riots in short order and Sturgeon likely pushing for independence as well as severe problems at the Irish border.
That is why if May's Deal goes down as Rudd makes clear the Cabinet is moving towards Norway plus Customs Union which would be the only sane Brexit left, though with free movement required clearly worse than May's Deal
In an age of floating exchange rates, tariffs are not the threat to trade that non tariff barriers are.
There would be plenty of non tariff barriers with No Deal too. No Deal followed most likely by PM Corbyn would trash the UK's reputation with large corporations and financial services companies and would take decades to get over, while Corbyn will be building a 'special relationship' with Caracas and Mexico City which at least have more sunshine
True - but no deal gives us complete flexibility over how best to manage our own economy and much more choice in trading partners.
It gives us complete flexibility as to whether we want to be dictated to by China or the USA in any trade deal yes while we trash our economy at home
Comments
I do believe TM determination to put the deal to the HOC is brave but correct. It is the catalyst that everything will flow from and mps voting records made public.
I do not know if TM will resign, (but it is out of character), face a vnoc or determine to enter more talks with the EU. It hasn't been spoken too much about the EU position, apart from the thread header, but this is high noon for them as well
If TM sacrificing herself on this deal brings a solution nearer she needs more praise than vitriol
Unless one side just downright beats the other into submission as has happened with Labour, a split is eminently sensible.
Is it possible and/or advisable to use UK debit cards in the USA, or is it better to stick to credit cards?
Is Prodi speaking off his own bat or is it organised by some group in the EU, perhaps to get Ydoethur salivating, an anti Selmayr group.
Generally the easiest thing was to use a Revolut card with most of the security disabled so that it could be simply swiped for payment.
In addition, the WTO end point which you suggest makes things worse in two respects: it makes the Irish border problem substantially worse, and it makes the £39bn Danegeld demand even less palatable.
It is always advisable to let you bank know you will be using your card abroad and what country, otherwise it may not work.
What never ceases to amaze me is May’s,incompetence and weakness, shared by those who support her, in giving that away for nothing. A co promise assumes we’ve got something of value for what, of value, we have given up. That is palpably notthe case. The EU have simply intimidated and bullied May into giving them everything g they want for nothing in return.
The Tory Party might well be your party, but it’s mine too. As you seek to lecture about compromise, you might want to bear that in mind.
Ideally there is a deal in the meantime but revocation (to rethink out position vis a vis Europe) is clearly better than no deal in that scenario. Anyone longing for no deal is bonkers.
It has been blindingly obvious since Chequers that there wasn't a viable deal which could pass the House.
It needs to be voted on, so the widespread delusion that there is such an agreement, is made utterly clear.
Then the next moves can be made. Pulling it would be merely displacement activity.
The only solution is to just get on with it one way or another, put Brexit behind us (no matter what happens it won't be as bad as the Chicken Licken's fear) and get on with taking the fight to this socialist madness.
1) Pour on water / blanket / etc
2) Add more fuel so it completely burns itself out
Method 1) has failed so it looks like the Conservatives are going to give Method 2) a try. The only trouble is that my popcorn has run out
A Conservative collapse is possible, but only under extreme circumstances - because each side in such a division would know that they were either likely or certain to suffer a ruinous electoral defeat - unless, as I've previously postulated, the Tory and Labour centrists both jump ship at the same time, and even that would be very risky. Especially for pro-EU Tories, who would be abandoning most of their activists and most of their voters at the same time.
Anyway, we are some distance from the prospect of a split yet. Firstly we must wait to see what happens at the start of next week.
No deal by accident remains a significant threat...
I think that is an astute point. His proposed way forward was to encourage an amendment specifying a referendum, on the assumption that that wouldn't pass. I find that a little odd, because I think it would pass, but the technique works just as well if the ruled-out option is No Deal.
It may be that in the next few days one of the non-deal options will be ruled out anyway by one of the amendments already tabled. That is perhaps the last remaining hope for a compromise swing behind the PM, but I'm not holding my breath.
Agree with that approach. Although that presumes that sanity prevails!
The current setup may be madness but that's why we voted to leave it
I am always reminded of the voter interviewed on television some years ago, who claimed that over the entire course of her life every Prime Minister who had come and gone had been worse than the last one. The obvious fear is that Theresa May's ministry will come to be looked upon as a golden age if it is followed by that of Jeremy Corbyn.
There are plenty of people in this country right now who might be prepared to roll the dice and chance a soft Left administration, yet who will still not touch the current Labour leadership with a ten foot barge pole, regardless of how uselessly the Tories perform. The Hugo Chavez Fan Club may be seen as a viable option by the poor, the desperate and Labour's habit voters but many, many other people are terrified of them. Why else is it that the opinion polls aren't moving? It's not because the current Government is admired, that's for sure.
(Apologies for the bizarre mixture of metaphors!)
That is why if May's Deal goes down as Rudd makes clear the Cabinet is moving towards Norway plus Customs Union which would be the only sane Brexit left, though with free movement required clearly worse than May's Deal
I'm on Javid and Gove at double figure odds and will not be adding to this position
If there is to be an outsider at long odds it may well be a woman and Penny Mordaunt has been reported as preparing a bid so 25-1 may at least be a back to lay.
This could be a very active market in the next few days if Politics Home's report of the cabinet telling May if she loses the vote she has to go,is to be taken seriously.Brady could have his 48 letters by Wednesday too.
The only question remains whether May resigns before she's thrown off the cliff to go out with a bit of honour and dignity.Alistair Meeks' recent post could well to be prophetic.
Ultimately then the Commons will force Theresa May to make her own choice. Referendum or No Deal?
If she really believed what she had said about No Deal being better than a bad deal then she might be prepared to choose no deal. However, I think it is more likely that she would back a Deal vs Remain referendum as the best chance of seeing her deal approved. The main problem she faces is whether she can win a VONC to see such a plan through.
In an age of floating exchange rates, tariffs are not the threat to trade that non tariff barriers are.
Backed her at 81.
Am I the only Conservative who has now got to the stage that I'm no longer bothered about Brexit - sovereignty, trade deals, freedom of movement, in fact the lot - I couldn't care less.
The only concern now is insurance against McDonnell - and number 1 is to know that if I want to I can leave the country and take my assets with me.
Any deal / agreement which fits those criteria (and is a treaty which can't be amended) is fine with me.
Obviously all parties have as their first priority the advancement of the party and a focus on its internal debates, but the Tories really have given no other impression than that the only card they have to play is they are not Corbyn. It's a strong card, but right now it is backed up by nothing, and anything decent looks to be in spite of them, and all they are interested in are their endless bloody battles withthe EU and chasing unicorns. If they split at least they would spend less time yelling at themselves then expecting the public to vote for them anyway.
What this sort of initiative is about is providing a sop to the more radical public sector unions, especially those like the RMT that still have the power to cause mass misery for the general public, and might feel emboldened to do so more often under a Corbyn Government. Expect lots of very disruptive strikes by teachers, train drivers and the like if Labour get back in.
The problem for Social democracy is it was blamed for the financial crash of 2008 and the centre-left saw its reputation for economic management trashed. The Right chimed in with austerity but now that too seems to have run its course.
I'm also concerned as to how the global economic winds will be in the next 18-24 months - perversely, these may limit an incoming Labour Government's room for manoeuvre.
Problem is we know there are EU nations who would like to reopen other parts of the agreement. Even if they are terrified of no deal and willing, after all this, to not have the backstop, what will they need to accept that chance? Let us not pretend they can concede something massive without expecting something in return - they have politics to consider as well, and giving that up for nothing is not going to fly.
But then we are back where we started and the ERG say that the new thing demanded is too much.
May's deal versus No Deal would clearly support her deal. Drama over (apart from some continuing blood-letting in the Tory party over her successor).
It seems very naive to me to think that McDonnell will happily give up power after 5 years, having waited for 30.
The cultural and policy chasm between the factions in the Labour Party will make it harder for it to govern than the Tories. The Tories are only really at odds over Europe, and they only need to bung a few bribes at the DUP to keep a majority. Can you imagine what the combination of a socialist cabinet, obsessed with niche foreign policy positions and 1970s economic policies, a horrified cohort of social democrat backbenchers, and the Scottish Nationalists will look like in Government?
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2018/12/06/mays-brexit-deal-leads-just-two-constituencies-it-
Some incentive for everyone - and how, as a matter of principle, can they object ?
I'm not about to research it all line by line, more patient and intelligent people than me can try, but if you really believe we got absolutely nothing out of the two years, and that was all just down to May capitulating on absolutely everything, that is just not credible. And if you think they were that successful in doing that the idea they would concede anything now is moronic.
True - but no deal gives us complete flexibility over how best to manage our own economy and much more choice in trading partners.
1) You're a May loyalist who thinks her deal is great - well it's been rejected so heavily it will never get through. You might as well still vote for her though.
2) You're a party loyalist who doesn't like the deal much but you follow your leader - well several cabinet members have already, before the vote is lost, talked about alternative options to be tried, and if they are openly doing that so will some loyalists, - something has to be tried and May might not be the best person to try it. Some will vote for her
3) You reluctantly backed the deal because the alternatives are not great - well unfortunately one will have to be tried, as May herself will admit, once parliament demolishes her deal> Given even she will have to say she'll try something else you may as well go for one of the people who have suggested that already. Most will vote against
4) New dealers - you didn't send in a letter but you believe a new deal can be negotiated, around 60 of you. None will vote for her
5) The ERG - enough said, none will vote for her
6)Boris Johnson - he wants to be PM, will not vote for her
That said, I still wouldn't exactly be thrilled at the prospect of a Corbyn Government - but the likelihood of that cannot be accurately gauged at all until the Brexit end game has played out in full. If the Conservatives manage to get there without coming apart then they would be favourites to finish as the largest party at the following General Election in all but a totally catastrophic economic situation. The same people who were frightened of the prospect of Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister in 2017 will still be frightened of it in 2019, or in 2022 for that matter. We also ought to remember that, if the current Parliament runs its course, boundary reform will also go through. The combination of this, and the SNPs continued strength in Scotland, will make it very hard for Labour to win a General Election outright.
They've a better chance of coming to power as a minority, but their having to rely on the votes of the Scottish National Party to pass English domestic legislation would leave them with some explaining to do to large parts of the English electorate, to put it mildly.
And if the aim is to re-unite the country, anything else is almost guaranteed to fail.