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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » BACK TO THE FUTURE – Part 2 The past is a foreign country – Re

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  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 11,451

    Donny43 said:

    John_M said:

    IanB2 said:

    There will be a huge political backlash if we don’t leave.

    Nah there won't. There'll be lots of impotent gammon fury on websites nobody cares about. Maybe Nigel Farage will stand as an MP again, and lose again, and get fewer votes than a man dressed as a shark again.

    But that's about it.
    Leavers tend to be older and not many over-65s want to man the barricades.
    Also, in the Brexit supporting age groups, 400,000 per year are departing the UK (and EU) permanently for the Heavenly Uplands, whilst about 700,000 younger voters have come on to the electoral roll.

    Leave won by 1.3m (ish) - two years ago.
    And younger voters stay young forever do they? :lol:
    Most of us understand your point. The question is whether the 2016 outcome and the fiasco since has frozen the general process of people moving toward Brexit as they move toward retirement.
    My wife has flipped from Remain to Leave. I assure you that it is nothing to do with me. I don't think things are as simple as people make out.

    I'd be very pleased to have a second referendum; I think the Remain campaign would fuck it up again.
    Well, they might actually campaign for Remain next time.
    I think the campaigns in a 2nd referendum will take a very different shape. If Remain have any sense they won't bother trying to convince Leavers, they'll just concentrate on GOTV, especially the youth vote.

    (PS I don't think Remain will very upset if there's a Leave boycott either!)
    Given GDPR has come in since the last referendum, GOTV will be very hard given a lack of previous vote info.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,348

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    There will be a huge political backlash if we don’t leave. If we stay in, it will finish the Tories for a generation because the betrayal of Brexit, having betrayed fishing (again) and the DUP means no one will ever trust them, certainly not the electorate.

    Corbyn will be the big winner from no Brexit and then we shall all be in serious trouble even those who don’t care about Britain being subsumed into a United States of Europe.

    Nah, most people would be glad that it's over; the ERG's star has crashed and burned, yes they will make a fuss but they'll be back where they started as eccentrics to whom most people won't give a hearing.
    I am not worried about the ERG. I tend to agree with you about them. I am rather more concerned about the righteous indignation of the 17.4m who voted Leave and who will know the Tory Remoaners denied them what they won at the ballot box.
    The Tories are probably stuffed either way.

    If a second vote is decisive in choosing to abandon this whole failed experiment I doubt there will be that much of a kickback; the problem is if we get another close result.
    Maybe. I think there will be a lot of resentment amongst Leavers that May showed gross negligence in not preparing for no deal. Tories who voted Leave like me now know the ERG are all talk and no substance, that Tory Remainers despise the electorate and that the party is increasingly Milibandite and has no obvious Conservative characteristics or policies.
    That's where I am. I have not renewed my Party membership. I have worked hard for the Conservative Party for the past 40 years. But right now, they can forget my money, my time, my vote.

    Any negotiating team that can get themselves enmeshed in the backstop, whilst refusing to plan for - and so threaten the EU with the possibility of - No Deal Brexit has lost me.

    Getting the backstop replaced - so that leaving is 100% within our control - is the only thing I can see getting me (half-heartedly) supporting them again.
    You are the problem, not the Conservative Party. You wanted Brexit. You argued for it. And this is where it has got us. *No-one* could square the circle of the referendum campaigns - and that's leave's fault.

    And only leave's fault.

    Take responsibility, and once the dust has settled, rejoin and try to help fix the mess you have made of the party.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 11,451
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    There will be a huge political backlash if we don’t leave. If we stay in, it will finish the Tories for a generation because the betrayal of Brexit, having betrayed fishing (again) and the DUP means no one will ever trust them, certainly not the electorate.

    Corbyn will be the big winner from no Brexit and then we shall all be in serious trouble even those who don’t care about Britain being subsumed into a United States of Europe.

    Nah, most people would be glad that it's over; the ERG's star has crashed and burned, yes they will make a fuss but they'll be back where they started as eccentrics to whom most people won't give a hearing.
    I am not worried about the ERG. I tend to agree with you about them. I am rather more concerned about the righteous indignation of the 17.4m who voted Leave and who will know the Tory Remoaners denied them what they won at the ballot box.
    The Tories are probably stuffed either way.

    If a second vote is decisive in choosing to abandon this whole failed experiment I doubt there will be that much of a kickback; the problem is if we get another close result.
    Maybe. I think there will be a lot of resentment amongst Leavers that May showed gross negligence in not preparing for no deal. Tories who voted Leave like me now know the ERG are all talk and no substance, that Tory Remainers despise the electorate and that the party is increasingly Milibandite and has no obvious Conservative characteristics or policies.
    That's where I am. I have not renewed my Party membership. I have worked hard for the Conservative Party for the past 40 years. But right now, they can forget my money, my time, my vote.

    Any negotiating team that can get themselves enmeshed in the backstop, whilst refusing to plan for - and so threaten the EU with the possibility of - No Deal Brexit has lost me.

    Getting the backstop replaced - so that leaving is 100% within our control - is the only thing I can see getting me (half-heartedly) supporting them again.

    Pretty much the first thing they did was to promise nervous big businesses that there was absolutely no question of our leaving without a deal. So how could they possibly then be seen to be planning for it? You do remember where a lot of the Tories' money comes from?
    And yet 99% of councillors and activists don’t come from big business.

    For about the millionth time. It isn’t all about money.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 10,221
    edited December 2018
    On another topic of great import to PB...

    The Guardian blog writers over-apostrophise:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2018/dec/09/esther-mcvey-says-she-would-consider-tory-leadership-bid-live-updates?page=with:block-5c0d7ab3e4b0b950d12f994c#block-5c0d7ab3e4b0b950d12f994c

    "We’ll now close tonight’s live blog. All eye’s to Tuesday’s crucial vote."

    Ruined the whole blog for me.
  • IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    There will be a huge political backlash if we don’t leave. If we stay in, it will finish the Tories for a generation because the betrayal of Brexit, having betrayed fishing (again) and the DUP means no one will ever trust them, certainly not the electorate.

    Corbyn will be the big winner from no Brexit and then we shall all be in serious trouble even those who don’t care about Britain being subsumed into a United States of Europe.

    Nah, most people would be glad that it's over; the ERG's star has crashed and burned, yes they will make a fuss but they'll be back where they started as eccentrics to whom most people won't give a hearing.
    I am not worried about the ERG. I tend to agree with you about them. I am rather more concerned about the righteous indignation of the 17.4m who voted Leave and who will know the Tory Remoaners denied them what they won at the ballot box.
    The Tories are probably stuffed either way.

    If a second vote is decisive in choosing to abandon this whole failed experiment I doubt there will be that much of a kickback; the problem is if we get another close result.
    Maybe. I think there will be a lot of resentment amongst Leavers that May showed gross negligence in not preparing for no deal. Tories who voted Leave like me now know the ERG are all talk and no substance, that Tory Remainers despise the electorate and that the party is increasingly Milibandite and has no obvious Conservative characteristics or policies.
    That's where I am. I have not renewed my Party membership. I have worked hard for the Conservative Party for the past 40 years. But right now, they can forget my money, my time, my vote.

    Any negotiating team that can get themselves enmeshed in the backstop, whilst refusing to plan for - and so threaten the EU with the possibility of - No Deal Brexit has lost me.

    Getting the backstop replaced - so that leaving is 100% within our control - is the only thing I can see getting me (half-heartedly) supporting them again.

    Pretty much the first thing they did was to promise nervous big businesses that there was absolutely no question of our leaving without a deal. So how could they possibly then be seen to be planning for it? You do remember where a lot of the Tories' money comes from?
    3 big business donors denounced the Tories as cowards yesterday and Crispin Oder, who wasn’t one of the three, has already done the same. The Tories are going to face a funding crisis at this rate because of their betrayal.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,995

    Barnesian said:

    Caroline Lucas seems to be the People's Choice if this C4 debate is anything to go by.

    I was at the Exel rally for the People's Vote this afternoon. There were about 10 speakers from across the political spectrum including Heseltine, Cable and a clutch of Labour MPs. But it was Caroline Lucas who set the rally on fire. What passion. What an orator. She got a standing ovation. I was really impressed.
    Interesting. I wonder if the Greens could get a bit of a breakthrough in the next few years? I'd certainly consider voting for them.
    Elsewhere greens seem to be riding a bit of a mini-wave. Here I think Corbynism is choking off its supply of enthusiastic younger supporters. If Labour ever returns to the likes of Cooper or Burnham the greens could do quite well.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,423
    Floater said:

    dyingswan said:

    Oh dear Barry Gardiner. Embarrassing,prissy and ill informed. No wonder Labour has been keeping its head down on Brexit. They have nothing to say.

    He goes from bad to worse and his idea of a GE met in stony silence
    People aren't stupid, no matter what the arch remainers on here like to tell us.

    An election call is just a naked attempt to gain power and people can see that.

    Labour has no answers to this problem either - even a member of their shadow cabinet described their position as " a load of bollocks"
    Labour doesn't need any answers to this problem. Their top priority, surely, is dislodging the Conservatives from government. So this problem is their opportunity.

    Labour's aims & concerns are not the same as the Conservatives', so even if all parties could agree that someone from the Shadow Cabinet should have a go themselves in Brussels, nothing would really be gained. A solution might be found, but it would be one that maximised the chance of the present government falling.

    There's nothing dishonourable in believing that what is best for the country is that Labour should be in government.

    Good evening, everyone.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 10,221

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    There will be a huge political backlash if we don’t leave. If we stay in, it will finish the Tories for a generation because the betrayal of Brexit, having betrayed fishing (again) and the DUP means no one will ever trust them, certainly not the electorate.

    Corbyn will be the big winner from no Brexit and then we shall all be in serious trouble even those who don’t care about Britain being subsumed into a United States of Europe.

    Nah, most people would be glad that it's over; the ERG's star has crashed and burned, yes they will make a fuss but they'll be back where they started as eccentrics to whom most people won't give a hearing.
    I am not worried about the ERG. I tend to agree with you about them. I am rather more concerned about the righteous indignation of the 17.4m who voted Leave and who will know the Tory Remoaners denied them what they won at the ballot box.
    The Tories are probably stuffed either way.

    If a second vote is decisive in choosing to abandon this whole failed experiment I doubt there will be that much of a kickback; the problem is if we get another close result.
    Maybe. I think there will be a lot of resentment amongst Leavers that May showed gross negligence in not preparing for no deal. Tories who voted Leave like me now know the ERG are all talk and no substance, that Tory Remainers despise the electorate and that the party is increasingly Milibandite and has no obvious Conservative characteristics or policies.
    That's where I am. I have not renewed my Party membership. I have worked hard for the Conservative Party for the past 40 years. But right now, they can forget my money, my time, my vote.

    Any negotiating team that can get themselves enmeshed in the backstop, whilst refusing to plan for - and so threaten the EU with the possibility of - No Deal Brexit has lost me.

    Getting the backstop replaced - so that leaving is 100% within our control - is the only thing I can see getting me (half-heartedly) supporting them again.

    Pretty much the first thing they did was to promise nervous big businesses that there was absolutely no question of our leaving without a deal. So how could they possibly then be seen to be planning for it? You do remember where a lot of the Tories' money comes from?
    3 big business donors denounced the Tories as cowards yesterday and Crispin Oder, who wasn’t one of the three, has already done the same. The Tories are going to face a funding crisis at this rate because of their betrayal.
    Reasons to be cheerful, 1, 2, 3.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 62,888

    HYUFD said:



    She still lost a 20% lead in the polls, lost her majority and relied on a revival of Scottish Tories that she had nothing to do with. Her deal shows she doesn’t care about the Union. She threw NI under the bus, fuelled Scottish Nationalism as a result and ignored Wales. She betrayed fishermen again. Who did she win over - no one.

    Wrong, it is No Deal actually which could destroy the Union, as the polls in Scotland show only in the event of No Deal does Yes lead some indyref2 polls with over 50% and as Northern Irish polls too show support for a United Ireland also reaches over 50% with a hard border with the Republic.
    Those will be the same polls that showed her with a 20% lead in the last election. It was only the discredited “Vow” that saved the Union last time.
    The final polls were not showing a 20% lead, the 42% May got was about what she got at the time the election was called, all that happened was Labour squeezed the minor parties. The Vow likely expanded the Union lead but it would still probably have won anyway, however No Deal significantly increases the risk of Scottish independence and a United Ireland
  • IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    There will be a huge political backlash if we don’t leave. If we stay in, it will finish the Tories for a generation because the betrayal of Brexit, having betrayed fishing (again) and the DUP means no one will ever trust them, certainly not the electorate.

    Corbyn will be the big winner from no Brexit and then we shall all be in serious trouble even those who don’t care about Britain being subsumed into a United States of Europe.

    Nah, most people would be glad that it's over; the ERG's star has crashed and burned, yes they will make a fuss but they'll be back where they started as eccentrics to whom most people won't give a hearing.
    I am not worried about the ERG. I tend to agree with you about them. I am rather more concerned about the righteous indignation of the 17.4m who voted Leave and who will know the Tory Remoaners denied them what they won at the ballot box.
    The Tories are probably stuffed either way.

    If a second vote is decisive in choosing to abandon this whole failed experiment I doubt there will be that much of a kickback; the problem is if we get another close result.
    Maybe. I think there will be a lot of resentment amongst Leavers that May showed gross negligence in not preparing for no deal. Tories who voted Leave like me now know the ERG are all talk and no substance, that Tory Remainers despise the electorate and that the party is increasingly Milibandite and has no obvious Conservative characteristics or policies.
    That's where I am. I have not renewed my Party membership. I have worked hard for the Conservative Party for the past 40 years. But right now, they can forget my money, my time, my vote.

    Any negotiating team that can get themselves enmeshed in the backstop, whilst refusing to plan for - and so threaten the EU with the possibility of - No Deal Brexit has lost me.

    Getting the backstop replaced - so that leaving is 100% within our control - is the only thing I can see getting me (half-heartedly) supporting them again.
    You are the problem, not the Conservative Party. You wanted Brexit. You argued for it. And this is where it has got us. *No-one* could square the circle of the referendum campaigns - and that's leave's fault.

    And only leave's fault.

    Take responsibility, and once the dust has settled, rejoin and try to help fix the mess you have made of the party.
    May and her Remainers had nothing to do with the great Brexit betrayal in your world I suppose. I am no admirer of Farage but the idea of voting Tory once Brexit is betrayed is abhorrent - won’t happen.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 62,888
    edited December 2018

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    There will be a huge political backlash if we don’t leave. If we stay in, it will finish the Tories for a generation because the betrayal of Brexit, having betrayed fishing (again) and the DUP means no one will ever trust them, certainly not the electorate.

    Corbyn will be the big winner from no Brexit and then we shall all be in serious trouble even those who don’t care about Britain being subsumed into a United States of Europe.

    Nah, most people would be glad that it's over; the ERG's star has crashed and burned, yes they will make a fuss but they'll be back where they started as eccentrics to whom most people won't give a hearing.
    I am not worried about the ERG. I tend to agree with you about them. I am rather more concerned about the righteous indignation of the 17.4m who voted Leave and who will know the Tory Remoaners denied them what they won at the ballot box.
    The Tories are probably stuffed either way.

    If a second vote is decisive in choosing to abandon this whole failed experiment I doubt there will be that much of a kickback; the problem is if we get another close result.
    Maybe. I think there will be a lot of resentment amongst Leavers that May showed gross negligence in not preparing for no deal. Tories who voted Leave like me now know the ERG are all talk and no substance, that Tory Remainers despise the electorate and that the party is increasingly Milibandite and has no obvious Conservative characteristics or policies.
    That's where I am. I have not renewed my Party membership. I have worked hard for the Conservative Party for the past 40 years. But right now, they can forget my money, my time, my vote.

    Any negotiating team that can get themselves enmeshed in the backstop, whilst refusing to plan for - and so threaten the EU with the possibility of - No Deal Brexit has lost me.

    Getting the backstop replaced - so that leaving is 100% within our control - is the only thing I can see getting me (half-heartedly) supporting them again.

    Thankyou for your previous support but if you will not support the Tories other than with a No Deal Brexit (inevitable without the backstop) you may be better off in UKIP or a Farage 2 Party anyway or holding out until Boris becomes leader of the opposition
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:



    She still lost a 20% lead in the polls, lost her majority and relied on a revival of Scottish Tories that she had nothing to do with. Her deal shows she doesn’t care about the Union. She threw NI under the bus, fuelled Scottish Nationalism as a result and ignored Wales. She betrayed fishermen again. Who did she win over - no one.

    Wrong, it is No Deal actually which could destroy the Union, as the polls in Scotland show only in the event of No Deal does Yes lead some indyref2 polls with over 50% and as Northern Irish polls too show support for a United Ireland also reaches over 50% with a hard border with the Republic.
    Those will be the same polls that showed her with a 20% lead in the last election. It was only the discredited “Vow” that saved the Union last time.
    The final polls were not showing a 20% lead, the 42% May got was about what she got at the time the election was called, all that happened was Labour squeezed the minor parties. The Vow likely expanded the Union lead but it would still probably have won anyway, however No Deal significantly increases the risk of Scottish independence and a United Ireland


    It’s nice to dream I suppose
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 11,451
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    There will be a huge political backlash if we don’t leave. If we stay in, it will finish the Tories for a generation because the betrayal of Brexit, having betrayed fishing (again) and the DUP means no one will ever trust them, certainly not the electorate.

    Corbyn will be the big winner from no Brexit and then we shall all be in serious trouble even those who don’t care about Britain being subsumed into a United States of Europe.

    Nah, most people would be glad that it's over; the ERG's star has crashed and burned, yes they will make a fuss but they'll be back where they started as eccentrics to whom most people won't give a hearing.
    I am not worried about the ERG. I tend to agree with you about them. I am rather more concerned about the righteous indignation of the 17.4m who voted Leave and who will know the Tory Remoaners denied them what they won at the ballot box.
    The Tories are probably stuffed either way.

    If a second vote is decisive in choosing to abandon this whole failed experiment I doubt there will be that much of a kickback; the problem is if we get another close result.
    Maybe. I think there will be a lot of resentment amongst Leavers that May showed gross negligence in not preparing for no deal. Tories who voted Leave like me now know the ERG are all talk and no substance, that Tory Remainers despise the electorate and that the party is increasingly Milibandite and has no obvious Conservative characteristics or policies.
    That's where I am. I have not renewed my Party membership. I have worked hard for the Conservative Party for the past 40 years. But right now, they can forget my money, my time, my vote.

    Any negotiating team that can get themselves enmeshed in the backstop, whilst refusing to plan for - and so threaten the EU with the possibility of - No Deal Brexit has lost me.

    Getting the backstop replaced - so that leaving is 100% within our control - is the only thing I can see getting me (half-heartedly) supporting them again.

    Thankyou for your previous support but if you will not support the Tories other than with a No Deal Brexit you may be better off in UKIP or a Farage 2 Party anyway or holding out until Boris becomes leader of the opposition
    Oh god, not the HYUFD purity test again.

    We’re better as a broad church. I support the deal, which is going to lose by a huge margin this week, but am seriously worried that people like Mark will leave us.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 27,418

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    There will be a huge political backlash if we don’t leave. If we stay in, it will finish the Tories for a generation because the betrayal of Brexit, having betrayed fishing (again) and the DUP means no one will ever trust them, certainly not the electorate.

    Corbyn will be the big winner from no Brexit and then we shall all be in serious trouble even those who don’t care about Britain being subsumed into a United States of Europe.

    Nah, most people would be glad that it's over; the ERG's star has crashed and burned, yes they will make a fuss but they'll be back where they started as eccentrics to whom most people won't give a hearing.
    I am not worried about the ERG. I tend to agree with you about them. I am rather more concerned about the righteous indignation of the 17.4m who voted Leave and who will know the Tory Remoaners denied them what they won at the ballot box.
    The Tories are probably stuffed either way.

    If a second vote is decisive in choosing to abandon this whole failed experiment I doubt there will be that much of a kickback; the problem is if we get another close result.
    Maybe. I think there will be a lot of resentment amongst Leavers that May showed gross negligence in not preparing for no deal. Tories who voted Leave like me now know the ERG are all talk and no substance, that Tory Remainers despise the electorate and that the party is increasingly Milibandite and has no obvious Conservative characteristics or policies.
    That's where I am. I have not renewed my Party membership. I have worked hard for the Conservative Party for the past 40 years. But right now, they can forget my money, my time, my vote.

    Any negotiating team that can get themselves enmeshed in the backstop, whilst refusing to plan for - and so threaten the EU with the possibility of - No Deal Brexit has lost me.

    Getting the backstop replaced - so that leaving is 100% within our control - is the only thing I can see getting me (half-heartedly) supporting them again.
    You are the problem, not the Conservative Party. You wanted Brexit. You argued for it. And this is where it has got us. *No-one* could square the circle of the referendum campaigns - and that's leave's fault.

    And only leave's fault.

    Take responsibility, and once the dust has settled, rejoin and try to help fix the mess you have made of the party.
    I had faith that my party leadership wouldn't be fuckwits at negotiating a sensible, workable deal.

    Faith misplaced.

    I am so not the problem.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,348

    May and her Remainers had nothing to do with the great Brexit betrayal in your world I suppose. I am no admirer of Farage but the idea of voting Tory once Brexit is betrayed is abhorrent - won’t happen.

    Firstly, can you define the 'Great Brexit Betrayal' ?

    Secondly, what sort of Brexit do you want? How does it differ from May's deal?

    Thirdly, who on the leave side could have negotiated a 'better' (in your view) Brexit? Because there's a rather severe paucity of talent amongst the Conservative leavers.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited December 2018

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    There will be a huge political backlash if we don’t leave. If we stay in, it will finish the Tories for a generation because the betrayal of Brexit, having betrayed fishing (again) and the DUP means no one will ever trust them, certainly not the electorate.

    Corbyn will be the big winner from no Brexit and then we shall all be in serious trouble even those who don’t care about Britain being subsumed into a United States of Europe.

    Nah, most people would be glad that it's over; the ERG's star has crashed and burned, yes they will make a fuss but they'll be back where they started as eccentrics to whom most people won't give a hearing.
    I am not worried about the ERG. I tend to agree with you about them. I am rather more concerned about the righteous indignation of the 17.4m who voted Leave and who will know the Tory Remoaners denied them what they won at the ballot box.
    The Tories are probably stuffed either way.

    If a second vote is decisive in choosing to abandon this whole failed experiment I doubt there will be that much of a kickback; the problem is if we get another close result.
    Maybe. I think there will be a lot of resentment amongst Leavers that May showed gross negligence in not preparing for no deal. Tories who voted Leave like me now know the ERG are all talk and no substance, that Tory Remainers despise the electorate
    That's where I am. I have not renewed my Party membership. I have worked hard for the Conservative Party for the past 40 years. But right now, they can forget my money, my time, my vote.

    Any negotiating team that can get themselves enmeshed in the backstop, whilst refusing to plan for - and so threaten the EU with the possibility of - No Deal Brexit has lost me.

    Getting the backstop replaced - so that leaving is 100% within our control - is the only thing I can see getting me (half-heartedly) supporting them again.
    You are the problem, not the Conservative Party. You wanted Brexit. You argued for it. And this is where it has got us. *No-one* could square the circle of the referendum campaigns - and that's leave's fault.

    And only leave's fault.

    Take responsibility, and once the dust has settled, rejoin and try to help fix the mess you have made of the party.
    Who died and made you Queen? People are going to do whatever they like. For those left of centre folks on here, rejoice. The execution of Brexit has been woeful enough to pose an existential threat to the Tory machine. May has alienated her activists.
  • HYUFD said:

    Those will be the same polls that showed her with a 20% lead in the last election. It was only the discredited “Vow” that saved the Union last time.

    The final polls were not showing a 20% lead, the 42% May got was about what she got at the time the election was called, all that happened was Labour squeezed the minor parties. The Vow likely expanded the Union lead but it would still probably have won anyway, however No Deal significantly increases the risk of Scottish independence and a United Ireland
    The polls before the election were called did show a 20% lead. Yes changes happened which eroded the 20% lead to a 2% lead which is the frigging point, polls are fingers in the air and utter garbage as oracles.

    This deal significantly increases the risk of Scottish Independence and a United Ireland which is why it isn't liked by either of the Scottish Tories or the DUP.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 62,888
    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    There will be a huge political backlash if we don’t leave. If we stay in, it will finish the Tories for a generation because the betrayal of Brexit, having betrayed fishing (again) and the DUP means no one will ever trust them, certainly not the electorate.

    Corbyn will be the big winner from no Brexit and then we shall all be in serious trouble even those who don’t care about Britain being subsumed into a United States of Europe.

    Nah, most people would be glad that it's over; the ERG's star has crashed and burned, yes they will make a fuss but they'll be back where they started as eccentrics to whom most people won't give a hearing.
    I am not worried about the ERG. I tend to agree with you about them. I am rather more concerned about the righteous indignation of the 17.4m who voted Leave and who will know the Tory Remoaners denied them what they won at the ballot box.
    The Tories are probably stuffed either way.

    If a second vote is decisive in choosing to abandon this whole failed experiment I doubt there will be that much of a kickback; the problem is if we get another close result.
    Maybe. I think there will be a lot of resentment amongst Leavers that May showed gross negligence in not preparing for no deal. Tories who voted Leave like me now know the ERG are all talk and no substance, that Tory Remainers despise the electorate and that the party is increasingly Milibandite and has no obvious Conservative characteristics or policies.
    That's where I am. I havef-heartedly) supporting them again.

    Thankyou for your previous support but if you will not support the Tories other than with a No Deal Brexit you may be better off in UKIP or a Farage 2 Party anyway or holding out until Boris becomes leader of the opposition
    Oh god, not the HYUFD purity test again.

    We’re better as a broad church. I support the deal, which is going to lose by a huge margin this week, but am seriously worried that people like Mark will leave us.
    If they want to hold the party to ransom by forcing a No Deal Brexit 2/3 of voters oppose according to YouGov then I am sorry but they are better off in UKIP where most voters do back No Deal or else waiting for Boris to take over as leader of the opposition
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,252
    Mortimer said:

    Donny43 said:

    John_M said:

    IanB2 said:

    There will be a huge political backlash if we don’t leave.

    Nah there won't. There'll be lots of impotent gammon fury on websites nobody cares about. Maybe Nigel Farage will stand as an MP again, and lose again, and get fewer votes than a man dressed as a shark again.

    But that's about it.
    Leavers tend to be older and not many over-65s want to man the barricades.
    Also, in the Brexit supporting age groups, 400,000 per year are departing the UK (and EU) permanently for the Heavenly Uplands, whilst about 700,000 younger voters have come on to the electoral roll.

    Leave won by 1.3m (ish) - two years ago.
    And younger voters stay young forever do they? :lol:
    Most of us understand your point. The question is whether the 2016 outcome and the fiasco since has frozen the general process of people moving toward Brexit as they move toward retirement.
    My wife has flipped from Remain to Leave. I assure you that it is nothing to do with me. I don't think things are as simple as people make out.

    I'd be very pleased to have a second referendum; I think the Remain campaign would fuck it up again.
    Well, they might actually campaign for Remain next time.
    I think the campaigns in a 2nd referendum will take a very different shape. If Remain have any sense they won't bother trying to convince Leavers, they'll just concentrate on GOTV, especially the youth vote.

    (PS I don't think Remain will very upset if there's a Leave boycott either!)
    Given GDPR has come in since the last referendum, GOTV will be very hard given a lack of previous vote info.
    GDPR has not affected the data parties hold on voters as far as I can see. The electoral register is a public document and marked registers (showing who voted) are still on party databases.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,348

    I had faith that my party leadership wouldn't be fuckwits at negotiating a sensible, workable deal.

    Faith misplaced.

    I am so not the problem.

    It's bloody difficult to negotiate when there are at least three disparate positions, all reconcilable, and where the extreme clowns on two of them are unwilling to move. I daresay you can think you'd have done better, but I sincerely doubt it. Just look at the way the ERG clowns have acted.

    You were a vocal Brexiteer. You have at least some responsibility for this mess, and it's hilarious the way you try to avoid that fact.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    edited December 2018

    May and her Remainers had nothing to do with the great Brexit betrayal in your world I suppose. I am no admirer of Farage but the idea of voting Tory once Brexit is betrayed is abhorrent - won’t happen.

    Firstly, can you define the 'Great Brexit Betrayal' ?

    Secondly, what sort of Brexit do you want? How does it differ from May's deal?

    Thirdly, who on the leave side could have negotiated a 'better' (in your view) Brexit? Because there's a rather severe paucity of talent amongst the Conservative leavers.
    1. Brexit won’t happen. May’s deal is Brino and it will be either that or Temain who’ve already lost once if it comes to a second referendum.

    2. A FTA akin to Canada would have suited me with the EU having no control over our laws, money fishing or borders and vice versa. Failing that, no deal is better than a bad deal (or staying in).

    3. Almost anyone who voted Leave.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 802
    edited December 2018

    May and her Remainers had nothing to do with the great Brexit betrayal in your world I suppose. I am no admirer of Farage but the idea of voting Tory once Brexit is betrayed is abhorrent - won’t happen.

    Firstly, can you define the 'Great Brexit Betrayal' ?
    Tuesday nights, BBC2, 8pm.

    Sounds like it ought to be, anyway.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 62,888

    HYUFD said:

    Those will be the same polls that showed her with a 20% lead in the last election. It was only the discredited “Vow” that saved the Union last time.

    The final polls were not showing a 20% lead, the 42% May got was about what she got at the time the election was called, all that happened was Labour squeezed the minor parties. The Vow likely expanded the Union lead but it would still probably have won anyway, however No Deal significantly increases the risk of Scottish independence and a United Ireland
    The polls before the election were called did show a 20% lead. Yes changes happened which eroded the 20% lead to a 2% lead which is the frigging point, polls are fingers in the air and utter garbage as oracles.

    This deal significantly increases the risk of Scottish Independence and a United Ireland which is why it isn't liked by either of the Scottish Tories or the DUP.
    All that happened is Corbyn squeezed the LD, Green, UKIP and SNP vote at the start of the campaign in his favour, there was barely any net movement from Tory to Labour over the campaign.

    The only polls putting Yes over 50% are with No Deal, not with the Deal and not with Remain.
    Most Northern Irish voters want to stay in the single market and customs union and to avoid a hard border which the Deal ensures and if they do not get that a majority will vote for a United Ireland over a hard border and No Deal
    http://www.irishnews.com/news/brexit/2017/12/07/news/polls-shows-majority-want-to-stay-in-eu-single-market-after-brexit-1205284/

  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 11,451
    edited December 2018

    Mortimer said:

    Donny43 said:

    John_M said:

    IanB2 said:

    There will be a huge political backlash if we don’t leave.

    Nah there won't. There'll be lots of impotent gammon fury on websites nobody cares about. Maybe Nigel Farage will stand as an MP again, and lose again, and get fewer votes than a man dressed as a shark again.

    But that's about it.
    Leavers tend to be older and not many over-65s want to man the barricades.
    Also, in the Brexit supporting age groups, 400,000 per year are departing the UK (and EU) permanently for the Heavenly Uplands, whilst about 700,000 younger voters have come on to the electoral roll.

    Leave won by 1.3m (ish) - two years ago.
    And younger voters stay young forever do they? :lol:
    Most of us understand your point. The question is whether the 2016 outcome and the fiasco since has frozen the general process of people moving toward Brexit as they move toward retirement.
    My wife has flipped from Remain to Leave. I assure you that it is nothing to do with me. I don't think things are as simple as people make out.

    I'd be very pleased to have a second referendum; I think the Remain campaign would fuck it up again.
    Well, they might actually campaign for Remain next time.
    I think the campaigns in a 2nd referendum will take a very different shape. If Remain have any sense they won't bother trying to convince Leavers, they'll just concentrate on GOTV, especially the youth vote.

    (PS I don't think Remain will very upset if there's a Leave boycott either!)
    Given GDPR has come in since the last referendum, GOTV will be very hard given a lack of previous vote info.
    GDPR has not affected the data parties hold on voters as far as I can see. The electoral register is a public document and marked registers (showing who voted) are still on party databases.
    The data from the last referendum campaigns will no longer exist in the pre GDPR state: it will have been diminished by non-cons enters.

    Marked registers are on party databases if they’ve been entered - but how would a party know which way someone has voted? And that’s before the possibility that at least one party might be officially neutral.

    Focusing on GOTV would severely risk Remain encouraging Leave voters to vote...
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634

    Mortimer said:

    Donny43 said:

    John_M said:

    IanB2 said:

    There will be a huge political backlash if we don’t leave.

    Nah there won't. There'll be lots of impotent gammon fury on websites nobody cares about. Maybe Nigel Farage will stand as an MP again, and lose again, and get fewer votes than a man dressed as a shark again.

    But that's about it.
    Leavers tend to be older and not many over-65s want to man the barricades.
    Also, in the Brexit supporting age groups, 400,000 per year are departing the UK (and EU) permanently for the Heavenly Uplands, whilst about 700,000 younger voters have come on to the electoral roll.

    Leave won by 1.3m (ish) - two years ago.
    And younger voters stay young forever do they? :lol:
    Most of us understand your point. The question is whether the 2016 outcome and the fiasco since has frozen the general process of people moving toward Brexit as they move toward retirement.
    My wife has flipped from Remain to Leave. I assure you that it is nothing to do with me. I don't think things are as simple as people make out.

    I'd be very pleased to have a second referendum; I think the Remain campaign would fuck it up again.
    Well, they might actually campaign for Remain next time.
    I think the campaigns in a 2nd referendum will take a very different shape. If Remain have any sense they won't bother trying to convince Leavers, they'll just concentrate on GOTV, especially the youth vote.

    (PS I don't think Remain will very upset if there's a Leave boycott either!)
    Given GDPR has come in since the last referendum, GOTV will be very hard given a lack of previous vote info.
    GDPR has not affected the data parties hold on voters as far as I can see. The electoral register is a public document and marked registers (showing who voted) are still on party databases.
    Referendum campaigns aren't the parties, though, are they?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,348
    John_M said:

    With respect who on earth do you think you, other than ‘some guy’?

    Who died and made you Queen? People are going to do whatever they like. For those left of centre folks on here, rejoice. The execution of Brexit has been woeful enough to pose an existential threat to the Tory machine. May has alienated her activists.

    I'm not saying I'm Queen, and I've always accepted I'm a pleb - no-one special. I'm just pointing out a few truths that some leavers on here find uncomfortable. If so: good. They deserve to feel uncomfortable for the mess they've led the country into.

    To make it clear: I hope the country doesn't get into trouble, that Brexit works, and that the adults that our MPs and politicians are meant to be start acting like adults. But it doesn't look very likely at the moment, does it?

    And this mess was predictable. It was predicted. But leavers didn't want to hear it pre-referendum, and they don't want to hear it now. And having handed May a sh*t sandwich, they're saying it's her fault she hasn't turned it into a delectable feast.

    The execution of Brexit was always going to be woeful, because leavers campaigned on different, incompatible platforms, and having won, are not willing to compromise to one position or another. I doubt anyone, leaver, remainer or you - yes, even you - could have sorted it. There's too much dumb passion involved amongst Brexiteers and Remainers.
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634

    I had faith that my party leadership wouldn't be fuckwits at negotiating a sensible, workable deal.

    Faith misplaced.

    I am so not the problem.

    It's bloody difficult to negotiate when there are at least three disparate positions, all reconcilable, and where the extreme clowns on two of them are unwilling to move. I daresay you can think you'd have done better, but I sincerely doubt it. Just look at the way the ERG clowns have acted.

    You were a vocal Brexiteer. You have at least some responsibility for this mess, and it's hilarious the way you try to avoid that fact.
    He would at least have treated the negotiations as an opportunity, unlike Robbins and May.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,348
    Donny43 said:

    I had faith that my party leadership wouldn't be fuckwits at negotiating a sensible, workable deal.

    Faith misplaced.

    I am so not the problem.

    It's bloody difficult to negotiate when there are at least three disparate positions, all reconcilable, and where the extreme clowns on two of them are unwilling to move. I daresay you can think you'd have done better, but I sincerely doubt it. Just look at the way the ERG clowns have acted.

    You were a vocal Brexiteer. You have at least some responsibility for this mess, and it's hilarious the way you try to avoid that fact.
    He would at least have treated the negotiations as an opportunity, unlike Robbins and May.
    How?
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 1,769

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    There will be a huge political backlash if we don’t leave. If we stay in, it will finish the Tories for a generation because the betrayal of Brexit, having betrayed fishing (again) and the DUP means no one will ever trust them, certainly not the electorate.

    Corbyn will be the big winner from no Brexit and then we shall all be in serious trouble even those who don’t care about Britain being subsumed into a United States of Europe.

    .
    I
    .
    That's where I am. I have not renewed my Party membership. I have worked hard for the Conservative Party for the past 40 years. But right now, they can forget my money, my time, my vote.

    Any negotiating team that can get themselves enmeshed in the backstop, whilst refusing to plan for - and so threaten the EU with the possibility of - No Deal Brexit has lost me.

    Getting the backstop replaced - so that leaving is 100% within our control - is the only thing I can see getting me (half-heartedly) supporting them again.
    You are the problem, not the Conservative Party. You wanted Brexit. You argued for it. And this is where it has got us. *No-one* could square the circle of the referendum campaigns - and that's leave's fault.

    And only leave's fault.

    Take responsibility, and once the dust has settled, rejoin and try to help fix the mess you have made of the party.
    I had faith that my party leadership wouldn't be fuckwits at negotiating a sensible, workable deal.

    Faith misplaced.

    I am so not the problem.
    I don't think we share many views, but I completely agree with you on this. May's 'deal' isn't a deal. It's a deferral of almost every difficult decision to buy more time to have intra-Party arguments, but secured at the price of surrendering the few negotiating tools at the UK's disposal and giving far more power to the EU. I can understand why some party members and MPs believe that it's the least bad option now available, having run down the clock this far, but I'm not surprised that many members' loyalty has been stretched beyond breaking point by the process that has led here.

    Possibly the only way back for the Tories to function as a united party would be for a 'true believer' to win the leadership and then to try and delay Brexit for long enough to undo the negotiating mistakes of the last year - it seems like the right thing to do (if one wants Brexit) but I can't see the members accepting it from anyone who can be labelled a Remainer.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 10,221
    edited December 2018

    May and her Remainers had nothing to do with the great Brexit betrayal in your world I suppose. I am no admirer of Farage but the idea of voting Tory once Brexit is betrayed is abhorrent - won’t happen.

    Firstly, can you define the 'Great Brexit Betrayal' ?

    Secondly, what sort of Brexit do you want? How does it differ from May's deal?

    Thirdly, who on the leave side could have negotiated a 'better' (in your view) Brexit? Because there's a rather severe paucity of talent amongst the Conservative leavers.
    1. Brexit won’t happen. May’s deal is Brino and it will be either that or Temain who’ve already lost once if it comes to a second referendum.

    2. A FTA akin to Canada would have suited me with the EU having no control over our laws, money fishing or borders and vice versa. Failing that, no deal is better than a bad deal (or staying in).

    3. Almost anyone who voted Leave.
    3. If only the Brexit Secretary had been a Leaver, eh? Oh...
  • I don’t know why anybody is watching that brexit debate, the nfl games this afternoon are truly amazing drama.
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634

    Donny43 said:

    I had faith that my party leadership wouldn't be fuckwits at negotiating a sensible, workable deal.

    Faith misplaced.

    I am so not the problem.

    It's bloody difficult to negotiate when there are at least three disparate positions, all reconcilable, and where the extreme clowns on two of them are unwilling to move. I daresay you can think you'd have done better, but I sincerely doubt it. Just look at the way the ERG clowns have acted.

    You were a vocal Brexiteer. You have at least some responsibility for this mess, and it's hilarious the way you try to avoid that fact.
    He would at least have treated the negotiations as an opportunity, unlike Robbins and May.
    How?
    By seeing them as an opportunity rather than merely damage limitation. That means ruling out any sort of customs union, for a start.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 62,888
    edited December 2018
    Donny43 said:

    I had faith that my party leadership wouldn't be fuckwits at negotiating a sensible, workable deal.

    Faith misplaced.

    I am so not the problem.

    It's bloody difficult to negotiate when there are at least three disparate positions, all reconcilable, and where the extreme clowns on two of them are unwilling to move. I daresay you can think you'd have done better, but I sincerely doubt it. Just look at the way the ERG clowns have acted.

    You were a vocal Brexiteer. You have at least some responsibility for this mess, and it's hilarious the way you try to avoid that fact.
    He would at least have treated the negotiations as an opportunity, unlike Robbins and May.
    Purist Leavers were never going to compromise, for them Brexit means leaving the single market and customs union, ending free movement, doing our own trade deals, no money for Brussels, ending ECJ jurisdiction and damn the consequences for the Irish border and the Good Friday Agreement.

    We would never get a Deal with the EU on those terms yet of course Leave only won promising 'the easiest Deal in history' and with single market and/or customs union supporters amongst the 52%. As far as I am concerned if they want to argue for Leaving with No Deal they need to do get a mandate at another referendum first
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634

    May and her Remainers had nothing to do with the great Brexit betrayal in your world I suppose. I am no admirer of Farage but the idea of voting Tory once Brexit is betrayed is abhorrent - won’t happen.

    Firstly, can you define the 'Great Brexit Betrayal' ?

    Secondly, what sort of Brexit do you want? How does it differ from May's deal?

    Thirdly, who on the leave side could have negotiated a 'better' (in your view) Brexit? Because there's a rather severe paucity of talent amongst the Conservative leavers.
    1. Brexit won’t happen. May’s deal is Brino and it will be either that or Temain who’ve already lost once if it comes to a second referendum.

    2. A FTA akin to Canada would have suited me with the EU having no control over our laws, money fishing or borders and vice versa. Failing that, no deal is better than a bad deal (or staying in).

    3. Almost anyone who voted Leave.
    3. If only the Brexit Secretary had been a Leaver, eh? Oh...
    If only the Brexit Secretaries had been in the negotiations.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,934

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    There will be a huge political backlash if we don’t leave. If we stay in, it will finish the Tories for a generation because the betrayal of Brexit, having betrayed fishing (again) and the DUP means no one will ever trust them, certainly not the electorate.

    Corbyn will be the big winner from no Brexit and then we shall all be in serious trouble even those who don’t care about Britain being subsumed into a United States of Europe.

    DELETED FOR SPACE CONSIDERATIONS

    The Tories are probably stuffed either way.

    If a second vote is decisive in choosing to abandon this whole failed experiment I doubt there will be that much of a kickback; the problem is if we get another close result.
    Maybe. I think there will be a lot of resentment amongst Leavers that May showed gross negligence in not preparing for no deal. Tories who voted Leave like me now know the ERG are all talk and no substance, that Tory Remainers despise the electorate and that the party is increasingly Milibandite and has no obvious Conservative characteristics or policies.
    That's where I am. I have not renewed my Party membership. I have worked hard for the Conservative Party for the past 40 years. But right now, they can forget my money, my time, my vote.

    Any negotiating team that can get themselves enmeshed in the backstop, whilst refusing to plan for - and so threaten the EU with the possibility of - No Deal Brexit has lost me.

    Getting the backstop replaced - so that leaving is 100% within our control - is the only thing I can see getting me (half-heartedly) supporting them again.
    You are the problem, not the Conservative Party. You wanted Brexit. You argued for it. And this is where it has got us. *No-one* could square the circle of the referendum campaigns - and that's leave's fault.

    And only leave's fault.

    Take responsibility, and once the dust has settled, rejoin and try to help fix the mess you have made of the party.
    I had faith that my party leadership wouldn't be fuckwits at negotiating a sensible, workable deal.

    Faith misplaced.

    I am so not the problem.
    Difficult when so many within the party are fuckwits... just look at the ERG....
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634

    I don’t know why anybody is watching that brexit debate, the nfl games this afternoon are truly amazing drama.

    [email protected]
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 10,221
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Donny43 said:

    John_M said:

    IanB2 said:

    There will be a huge political backlash if we don’t leave.

    Leavers tend to be older and not many over-65s want to man the barricades.
    Also, in the Brexit supporting age groups, 400,000 per year are departing the UK (and EU) permanently for the Heavenly Uplands, whilst about 700,000 younger voters have come on to the electoral roll.

    Leave won by 1.3m (ish) - two years ago.
    And younger voters stay young forever do they? :lol:
    Most of us understand your point. The question is whether the 2016 outcome and the fiasco since has frozen the general process of people moving toward Brexit as they move toward retirement.
    My wife has flipped from Remain to Leave. I assure you that it is nothing to do with me. I don't think things are as simple as people make out.

    I'd be very pleased to have a second referendum; I think the Remain campaign would fuck it up again.
    Well, they might actually campaign for Remain next time.
    I think the campaigns in a 2nd referendum will take a very different shape. If Remain have any sense they won't bother trying to convince Leavers, they'll just concentrate on GOTV, especially the youth vote.

    (PS I don't think Remain will very upset if there's a Leave boycott either!)
    Given GDPR has come in since the last referendum, GOTV will be very hard given a lack of previous vote info.
    GDPR has not affected the data parties hold on voters as far as I can see. The electoral register is a public document and marked registers (showing who voted) are still on party databases.
    The data from the last referendum campaigns will no longer exist in the pre GDPR state: it will have been diminished by non-cons enters.

    Marked registers are on party databases if they’ve been entered - but how would a party know which way someone has voted? And that’s before the possibility that at least one party might be officially neutral.

    Focusing on GOTV would severely risk Remain encouraging Leave voters to vote...
    I bow to your better understanding of these things. I guess I was thinking more of a campaign via social media etc. to (try to) motivate under 30s to vote in the same turnout proportions as over 65s.
  • May and her Remainers had nothing to do with the great Brexit betrayal in your world I suppose. I am no admirer of Farage but the idea of voting Tory once Brexit is betrayed is abhorrent - won’t happen.

    Firstly, can you define the 'Great Brexit Betrayal' ?

    Secondly, what sort of Brexit do you want? How does it differ from May's deal?

    Thirdly, who on the leave side could have negotiated a 'better' (in your view) Brexit? Because there's a rather severe paucity of talent amongst the Conservative leavers.
    1. Brexit won’t happen. May’s deal is Brino and it will be either that or Temain who’ve already lost once if it comes to a second referendum.

    2. A FTA akin to Canada would have suited me with the EU having no control over our laws, money fishing or borders and vice versa. Failing that, no deal is better than a bad deal (or staying in).

    3. Almost anyone who voted Leave.
    3. If only the Brexit Secretary had been a Leaver, eh? Oh...
    If the only the Brexit Secretary had been allowed to get in with rather than be undermined by May and Robbins. Brexit Secretary is a title without a job.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 47,776
    Jonathan said:

    The debate cleared that up then, the reasoned arguments have changed my mind and there’s a clear route ahead for the nation.

    Good one!

    Labour are banking on Remain supporters voting for them regardless. And they will.

    Indeed. Sure a few will consider doing otherwise, but they didn't lose remainers despite officially holding a leave position, they aren't losing them now.

    But in any case Labour will I am sure be moving more toward remain in the coming days and weeks, and their MPs will support that position irrespective of whether the party officially takes that stance, so remain voters are going nowhere.


  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 11,451

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Donny43 said:

    John_M said:

    IanB2 said:

    There will be a huge political backlash if we don’t leave.

    Leavers tend to be older and not many over-65s want to man the barricades.


    Leave won by 1.3m (ish) - two .
    And younger voters stay young forever do they? :lol:
    Most of us understand your point. The question is whether the 2016 outcome and the fiasco since has frozen the general process of people moving toward Brexit as they move toward retirement.
    My wife has flipped from Remain to Leave. I assure you that it is nothing to do with me. I don't think things are as simple as people make out.

    I'd be very pleased to have a second referendum; I think the Remain campaign would fuck it up again.
    Well, they might actually campaign for Remain next time.
    I think the campaigns in a 2nd referendum will take a very different shape. If Remain have any sense they won't bother trying to convince Leavers, they'll just concentrate on GOTV, especially the youth vote.

    (PS I don't think Remain will very upset if there's a Leave boycott either!)
    Given GDPR has come in since the last referendum, GOTV will be very hard given a lack of previous vote info.
    GDPR has not affected the data parties hold on voters as far as I can see. The electoral register is a public document and marked registers (showing who voted) are still on party databases.
    The data from the last referendum campaigns will no longer exist in the pre GDPR state: it will have been diminished by non-cons enters.

    Marked registers are on party databases if they’ve been entered - but how would a party know which way someone has voted? And that’s before the possibility that at least one party might be officially neutral.

    Focusing on GOTV would severely risk Remain encouraging Leave voters to vote...
    I bow to your better understanding of these things. I guess I was thinking more of a campaign via social media etc. to (try to) motivate under 30s to vote in the same turnout proportions as over 65s.
    It’s a worthy idea, and I’m no political guru. But how to do it more effectively than last time? And how to to it to avoid alienating the more likely to vote groups of Remainers (older Remainers)....

    As with many things political, GOTV is very hard to do effectively without good VI data.
  • May and her Remainers had nothing to do with the great Brexit betrayal in your world I suppose. I am no admirer of Farage but the idea of voting Tory once Brexit is betrayed is abhorrent - won’t happen.

    Firstly, can you define the 'Great Brexit Betrayal' ?

    Secondly, what sort of Brexit do you want? How does it differ from May's deal?

    Thirdly, who on the leave side could have negotiated a 'better' (in your view) Brexit? Because there's a rather severe paucity of talent amongst the Conservative leavers.
    1. Brexit won’t happen. May’s deal is Brino and it will be either that or Temain who’ve already lost once if it comes to a second referendum.

    2. A FTA akin to Canada would have suited me with the EU having no control over our laws, money fishing or borders and vice versa. Failing that, no deal is better than a bad deal (or staying in).

    3. Almost anyone who voted Leave.
    3. If only the Brexit Secretary had been a Leaver, eh? Oh...
    Brexit Secretary is like Vice President of the United States. Not worth a bucket of warm piss.

    If only the Prime Minister had been a Leaver.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,348

    May and her Remainers had nothing to do with the great Brexit betrayal in your world I suppose. I am no admirer of Farage but the idea of voting Tory once Brexit is betrayed is abhorrent - won’t happen.

    Firstly, can you define the 'Great Brexit Betrayal' ?

    Secondly, what sort of Brexit do you want? How does it differ from May's deal?

    Thirdly, who on the leave side could have negotiated a 'better' (in your view) Brexit? Because there's a rather severe paucity of talent amongst the Conservative leavers.
    1. Brexit won’t happen. May’s deal is Brino and it will be either that or Temain who’ve already lost once if it comes to a second referendum.

    2. A FTA akin to Canada would have suited me with the EU having no control over our laws, money fishing or borders and vice versa. Failing that, no deal is better than a bad deal (or staying in).

    3. Almost anyone who voted Leave.
    1. No, it isn't BRINO. Leavers such as Richard Tyndall - hardly soft on the EU - have said they reluctantly accept the deal as it means we're leaving. (I hope I've represented his position correctly.) I think the same is true for others such as RCS and CasinoRoyale. If you really think it's BRINO, and they don't, then that highlights the exact issue I've been talking about.

    2. I doubt that was really available, and no deal will be disastrous.

    3. No. Simply no. Taking the top Conservative leave politicians: IDS wouldn't have, and neither would Davis. And Boris? Don't make me laugh. Gove... Now Gove is an interesting one. Perhaps, with a following wind. But the ERG winnets wouldn't have liked what he'd probably come up with.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 47,776
    Scott_P said:
    Who cares about May?! Why are people only seeming to care about this issue based on if it causes May to go or not?! Brexit is more important, the question should be how we get to a resolution, and if that happens to lead to May staying or leaving so be it.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 27,418

    I had faith that my party leadership wouldn't be fuckwits at negotiating a sensible, workable deal.

    Faith misplaced.

    I am so not the problem.

    It's bloody difficult to negotiate when there are at least three disparate positions, all reconcilable, and where the extreme clowns on two of them are unwilling to move. I daresay you can think you'd have done better, but I sincerely doubt it. Just look at the way the ERG clowns have acted.

    You were a vocal Brexiteer. You have at least some responsibility for this mess, and it's hilarious the way you try to avoid that fact.
    I have 25 years of negotiating big international deals - on evey continent - under my belt. I have watched with ever greater dismay as basic negotiating fail after basic negotiating fail has been implemented by the UK.

    A decent Brexit was possible. But probably not under a Remainer PM. Certainly not this one.
  • kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Who cares about May?! Why are people only seeming to care about this issue based on if it causes May to go or not?! Brexit is more important, the question should be how we get to a resolution, and if that happens to lead to May staying or leaving so be it.
    We get to a resolution by having a PM who can get us to a resolution. That isn't May.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 62,888

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Who cares about May?! Why are people only seeming to care about this issue based on if it causes May to go or not?! Brexit is more important, the question should be how we get to a resolution, and if that happens to lead to May staying or leaving so be it.
    We get to a resolution by having a PM who can get us to a resolution. That isn't May.
    There is no resolution beyond the Deal May agreed other than No Deal or Remain/BINO.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 27,418

    I don’t know why anybody is watching that brexit debate, the nfl games this afternoon are truly amazing drama.

    RedZone required watching tonight!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 62,888
    edited December 2018

    I had faith that my party leadership wouldn't be fuckwits at negotiating a sensible, workable deal.

    Faith misplaced.

    I am so not the problem.

    It's bloody difficult to negotiate when there are at least three disparate positions, all reconcilable, and where the extreme clowns on two of them are unwilling to move. I daresay you can think you'd have done better, but I sincerely doubt it. Just look at the way the ERG clowns have acted.

    You were a vocal Brexiteer. You have at least some responsibility for this mess, and it's hilarious the way you try to avoid that fact.
    I have 25 years of negotiating big international deals - on evey continent - under my belt. I have watched with ever greater dismay as basic negotiating fail after basic negotiating fail has been implemented by the UK.

    A decent Brexit was possible. But probably not under a Remainer PM. Certainly not this one.
    No, not without the backstop and measures to avoid a hard border in Ireland
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 50,888

    A decent Brexit was possible.

    It really wasn't.

    Until Leavers come to terms with that we are screwed
  • 2. A FTA akin to Canada would have suited me with the EU having no control over our laws, money fishing or borders and vice versa. Failing that, no deal is better than a bad deal (or staying in).

    2. I doubt that was really available, and no deal will be disastrous.
    Not only was it available but Barnier suggested it ages ago:

    https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/slide_presented_by_barnier_at_euco_15-12-2017.pdf
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited December 2018

    May and her Remainers had nothing to do with the great Brexit betrayal in your world I suppose. I am no admirer of Farage but the idea of voting Tory once Brexit is betrayed is abhorrent - won’t happen.

    Firstly, can you define the 'Great Brexit Betrayal' ?

    Secondly, what sort of Brexit do you want? How does it differ from May's deal?

    Thirdly, who on the leave side could have negotiated a 'better' (in your view) Brexit? Because there's a rather severe paucity of talent amongst the Conservative leavers.
    1. Brexit won’t happen. May’s deal is Brino and it will be either that or Temain who’ve already lost once if it comes to a second referendum.

    2. A FTA akin to Canada would have suited me with the EU having no control over our laws, money fishing or borders and vice versa. Failing that, no deal is better than a bad deal (or staying in).

    3. Almost anyone who voted Leave.
    3. If only the Brexit Secretary had been a Leaver, eh? Oh...
    If the only the Brexit Secretary had been allowed to get in with rather than be undermined by May and Robbins. Brexit Secretary is a title without a job.
    As ever, the truth is somewhere in the middle. May was unimpressed with Davis (to say he doesn't do detail is an understatement) and that triggered her natural control freakery. We all know she only likes to work with known quantities, hence Robbins.

    I will be eternally baffled as to why HMG attempted a bespoke WA. Well, not baffled exactly - the Tory party would have eaten its own feet if May had tried, but objectively, a period of reflection in EFTA/EEA + CU would have been easy to accomplish, if some of the welfare measures (discussed ad nauseam on here) had been implemented.

    I voted Leave, but only a complete partisan would deny that the leading lights of Vote Leave have woefully underperformed in their government roles, albeit they lacked May's wholehearted support. I'd give Gove *some* benefit of the doubt. He's at least kept a sense of realism.
  • HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Who cares about May?! Why are people only seeming to care about this issue based on if it causes May to go or not?! Brexit is more important, the question should be how we get to a resolution, and if that happens to lead to May staying or leaving so be it.
    We get to a resolution by having a PM who can get us to a resolution. That isn't May.
    There is no resolution beyond the Deal May agreed other than No Deal or Remain/BINO.
    Yes there is.

    If you believe there's no possible other negotiations because the other side have said so then you're the most gullible person on earth and I have a bridge to sell to you.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 3,224
    No Deal was never an option, even if we had started preparing from the day after the referendum
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 47,776

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Who cares about May?! Why are people only seeming to care about this issue based on if it causes May to go or not?! Brexit is more important, the question should be how we get to a resolution, and if that happens to lead to May staying or leaving so be it.
    We get to a resolution by having a PM who can get us to a resolution. That isn't May.
    Yes May needs to go, but it should not be the focus. Tories come up with new Brexit strategy is more significant than simply replacing May since your premise is mistaken in that it assumes merely changing PM is enough. May is not the major blockage, that is the numbres in parliament. A new leader I would hope can get a resolution but simply replacing May is no guarantee of that, and everyone focusing on it as if in itself it is all that is important right now is infuriating. If May is not PM on Wednesday is our Brexit position improved? Who the hell knows it depends what the plan is. If she were all that stood in the way of a resolution she'd have been removed already, and its pathetic that people are pretending she is the sole issue causing difficulty here.
  • I don’t know why anybody is watching that brexit debate, the nfl games this afternoon are truly amazing drama.

    RedZone required watching tonight!
    RedZone is required watching ever Sunday night :-) Other sports need to get on the train of the octobox of 7hrs of commercial free coverage...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 47,776

    No Deal was never an option, even if we had started preparing from the day after the referendum

    The parliament is grossly irresponsible for making it an option, and every person who triggered A50, whether they were for leave or remain, and no claims no deal cannot be allowed, was grossly irresponsible when they did so.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 10,221

    2. A FTA akin to Canada would have suited me with the EU having no control over our laws, money fishing or borders and vice versa. Failing that, no deal is better than a bad deal (or staying in).

    2. I doubt that was really available, and no deal will be disastrous.
    Not only was it available but Barnier suggested it ages ago:

    https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/slide_presented_by_barnier_at_euco_15-12-2017.pdf
    And it solves the Irish border issue how exactly?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 11,773

    I don’t know why anybody is watching that brexit debate, the nfl games this afternoon are truly amazing drama.

    RedZone required watching tonight!
    The Dolphins coming up with something Theresa May needs this week.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 62,888

    2. A FTA akin to Canada would have suited me with the EU having no control over our laws, money fishing or borders and vice versa. Failing that, no deal is better than a bad deal (or staying in).

    2. I doubt that was really available, and no deal will be disastrous.
    Not only was it available but Barnier suggested it ages ago:

    https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/slide_presented_by_barnier_at_euco_15-12-2017.pdf
    It was available from Barnier but only for GB not NI as well
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    Scott_P said:
    Brexit is worth it alone to see the throthing at the mouth of people who have never really had anyone say no to them.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 47,776
    Scott_P said:

    A decent Brexit was possible.

    It really wasn't.

    Until Leavers come to terms with that we are screwed
    Leavers on their own could not pass a deal.

    And blame can wait until we find out if we are getting no deal or a deal or whatever. Whining about blame when we are in the middle and we don't know how much blame is necessary to apportion out is yet another distraction.
  • 2. A FTA akin to Canada would have suited me with the EU having no control over our laws, money fishing or borders and vice versa. Failing that, no deal is better than a bad deal (or staying in).

    2. I doubt that was really available, and no deal will be disastrous.
    Not only was it available but Barnier suggested it ages ago:

    https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/slide_presented_by_barnier_at_euco_15-12-2017.pdf
    And it solves the Irish border issue how exactly?
    It doesn't. There is no Irish border issue which is why before Varadkar took over there was no mooted backstop and we had work ongoing on smart solutions. Canada is entirely suitable with those and we shouldn't let the tail wag the dog.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 62,888

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Who cares about May?! Why are people only seeming to care about this issue based on if it causes May to go or not?! Brexit is more important, the question should be how we get to a resolution, and if that happens to lead to May staying or leaving so be it.
    We get to a resolution by having a PM who can get us to a resolution. That isn't May.
    There is no resolution beyond the Deal May agreed other than No Deal or Remain/BINO.
    Yes there is.

    If you believe there's no possible other negotiations because the other side have said so then you're the most gullible person on earth and I have a bridge to sell to you.
    You persist in your unicorn fantasies then while the rest of us live in the real world, this is the only Deal on offer and the backstop is inescapable, it is this Deal, No Deal or no Brexit at all
  • Belgium in political crisis tonight according to the Guardian
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 9,481
    Interesting articles. I don't think I agree with the conclusions but good to get an informed Leaver view on Europe and the EU.
  • Belgium in political crisis tonight according to the Guardian

    Isn’t that normal?
  • kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    A decent Brexit was possible.

    It really wasn't.

    Until Leavers come to terms with that we are screwed
    Leavers on their own could not pass a deal.

    And blame can wait until we find out if we are getting no deal or a deal or whatever. Whining about blame when we are in the middle and we don't know how much blame is necessary to apportion out is yet another distraction.
    Leavers on their own are content with the default (no deal) more than Remainers are. If we reached a leave-based deal Remainers could either get on board or cause a no deal.
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Who cares about May?! Why are people only seeming to care about this issue based on if it causes May to go or not?! Brexit is more important, the question should be how we get to a resolution, and if that happens to lead to May staying or leaving so be it.
    We get to a resolution by having a PM who can get us to a resolution. That isn't May.
    There is no resolution beyond the Deal May agreed other than No Deal or Remain/BINO.
    Yes there is.

    If you believe there's no possible other negotiations because the other side have said so then you're the most gullible person on earth and I have a bridge to sell to you.
    You persist in your unicorn fantasies then while the rest of us live in the real world, this is the only Deal on offer and the backstop is inescapable, it is this Deal, No Deal or no Brexit at all
    Thank you, Theresa.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 27,418
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Who cares about May?! Why are people only seeming to care about this issue based on if it causes May to go or not?! Brexit is more important, the question should be how we get to a resolution, and if that happens to lead to May staying or leaving so be it.
    We get to a resolution by having a PM who can get us to a resolution. That isn't May.
    There is no resolution beyond the Deal May agreed other than No Deal or Remain/BINO.
    Yes there is.

    If you believe there's no possible other negotiations because the other side have said so then you're the most gullible person on earth and I have a bridge to sell to you.
    You persist in your unicorn fantasies then while the rest of us live in the real world, this is the only Deal on offer and the backstop is inescapable, it is this Deal, No Deal or no Brexit at all
    Tell us, what's your background in international negotiations? Because you speak with such certainty, I'd REALLY love to see your CV...
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 1,769

    I had faith that my party leadership wouldn't be fuckwits at negotiating a sensible, workable deal.

    Faith misplaced.

    I am so not the problem.

    It's bloody difficult to negotiate when there are at least three disparate positions, all reconcilable, and where the extreme clowns on two of them are unwilling to move. I daresay you can think you'd have done better, but I sincerely doubt it. Just look at the way the ERG clowns have acted.

    You were a vocal Brexiteer. You have at least some responsibility for this mess, and it's hilarious the way you try to avoid that fact.
    I have 25 years of negotiating big international deals - on evey continent - under my belt. I have watched with ever greater dismay as basic negotiating fail after basic negotiating fail has been implemented by the UK.

    A decent Brexit was possible. But probably not under a Remainer PM. Certainly not this one.
    I’d love to know which deals you negotiated in Antarctica... seriously though, I don’t think May’s really a remainer. She was happy to brief anti-EU myths with the best of them, and she saw the EU as an impediment to her fixation with reducing immigration. The problem is that she’s the wrong kind of leaver for many: obsessed with freedom of movement, and not really that interested in the niceties of trade deals.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Who cares about May?! Why are people only seeming to care about this issue based on if it causes May to go or not?! Brexit is more important, the question should be how we get to a resolution, and if that happens to lead to May staying or leaving so be it.
    We get to a resolution by having a PM who can get us to a resolution. That isn't May.
    There is no resolution beyond the Deal May agreed other than No Deal or Remain/BINO.
    Yes there is.

    If you believe there's no possible other negotiations because the other side have said so then you're the most gullible person on earth and I have a bridge to sell to you.
    You persist in your unicorn fantasies then while the rest of us live in the real world, this is the only Deal on offer and the backstop is inescapable, it is this Deal, No Deal or no Brexit at all
    This is the only Deal on offer as its the only deal negotiated because May is piss weak.

    If the backstop is inescapable then No Deal. Fine by me. Its no backstop or no deal for me.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    If the PM had been a Leaver, I doubt they would have got around to appointing their Cabinet by now - and they would be blaming Remainers for the delay.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 10,221
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    A decent Brexit was possible.

    It really wasn't.

    Until Leavers come to terms with that we are screwed
    Leavers on their own could not pass a deal.

    And blame can wait until we find out if we are getting no deal or a deal or whatever. Whining about blame when we are in the middle and we don't know how much blame is necessary to apportion out is yet another distraction.
    Albeit none of us on PB can do much about progressing the actual solution, so we might as well be distracted. :smile:
  • John_M said:

    May and her Remainers had nothing to do with the great Brexit betrayal in your world I suppose. I am no admirer of Farage but the idea of voting Tory once Brexit is betrayed is abhorrent - won’t happen.

    Firstly, can you define the 'Great Brexit Betrayal' ?

    Secondly, what sort of Brexit do you want? How does it differ from May's deal?

    Thirdly, who on the leave side could have negotiated a 'better' (in your view) Brexit? Because there's a rather severe paucity of talent amongst the Conservative leavers.
    1. Brexit won’t happen. May’s deal is Brino and it will be either that or Temain who’ve already lost once if it comes to a second referendum.

    2. A FTA akin to Canada would have suited me with the EU having no control over our laws, money fishing or borders and vice versa. Failing that, no deal is better than a bad deal (or staying in).

    3. Almost anyone who voted Leave.
    3. If only the Brexit Secretary had been a Leaver, eh? Oh...
    If the only the Brexit Secretary had been allowed to get in with rather than be undermined by May and Robbins. Brexit Secretary is a title without a job.
    As ever, the truth is somewhere in the middle. May was unimpressed with Davis (to say he doesn't do detail is an understatement) and that triggered her natural control freakery. We all know she only likes to work with known quantities, hence Robbins.

    I will be eternally baffled as to why HMG attempted a bespoke WA. Well, not baffled exactly - the Tory party would have eaten its own feet if May had tried, but objectively, a period of reflection in EFTA/EEA + CU would have been easy to accomplish, if some of the welfare measures (discussed ad nauseam on here) had been implemented.

    I voted Leave, but only a complete partisan would deny that the leading lights of Vote Leave have woefully underperformed in their government roles, albeit they lacked May's wholehearted support. I'd give Gove *some* benefit of the doubt. He's at least kept a sense of realism.
    Davis was never part of Vote Leave but he was on the right track. Raab was but by the time he came on board, it was only to do Baker’s job with Davis’ title. May was already doing Davis’ job with the title of PM (although doing sod all else) and Robbins had been her man for a while.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 30,958
    Scott_P said:

    A decent Brexit was possible.

    It really wasn't.

    Until Leavers come to terms with that we are screwed
    Labour haven’t come to terms with it.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 27,418
    tlg86 said:

    I don’t know why anybody is watching that brexit debate, the nfl games this afternoon are truly amazing drama.

    RedZone required watching tonight!
    The Dolphins coming up with something Theresa May needs this week.
    Steal that playbook, PM!
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Who cares about May?! Why are people only seeming to care about this issue based on if it causes May to go or not?! Brexit is more important, the question should be how we get to a resolution, and if that happens to lead to May staying or leaving so be it.
    We get to a resolution by having a PM who can get us to a resolution. That isn't May.
    There is no resolution beyond the Deal May agreed other than No Deal or Remain/BINO.
    Yes there is.

    If you believe there's no possible other negotiations because the other side have said so then you're the most gullible person on earth and I have a bridge to sell to you.
    You persist in your unicorn fantasies then while the rest of us live in the real world, this is the only Deal on offer and the backstop is inescapable, it is this Deal, No Deal or no Brexit at all
    Tell us, what's your background in international negotiations? Because you speak with such certainty, I'd REALLY love to see your CV...
    Who needs negotiations of any sort. If the other party says this is what's available then that's all that's available. Clearly because they said so. Its the HYUFD way.
  • The proposed solution is always ever closer bigger higher tax EU..

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/09/eu-brexit-piketty-tax-google-facebook-apple-manifesto
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 10,221
    edited December 2018

    If the PM had been a Leaver, I doubt they would have got around to appointing their Cabinet by now - and they would be blaming Remainers for the delay.

    :lol:
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 27,418

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Who cares about May?! Why are people only seeming to care about this issue based on if it causes May to go or not?! Brexit is more important, the question should be how we get to a resolution, and if that happens to lead to May staying or leaving so be it.
    We get to a resolution by having a PM who can get us to a resolution. That isn't May.
    There is no resolution beyond the Deal May agreed other than No Deal or Remain/BINO.
    Yes there is.

    If you believe there's no possible other negotiations because the other side have said so then you're the most gullible person on earth and I have a bridge to sell to you.
    You persist in your unicorn fantasies then while the rest of us live in the real world, this is the only Deal on offer and the backstop is inescapable, it is this Deal, No Deal or no Brexit at all
    Tell us, what's your background in international negotiations? Because you speak with such certainty, I'd REALLY love to see your CV...
    Who needs negotiations of any sort. If the other party says this is what's available then that's all that's available. Clearly because they said so. Its the HYUFD way.
    (Whisper it - but I think he might just be Olly Robbins.... :) )
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 47,776

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    A decent Brexit was possible.

    It really wasn't.

    Until Leavers come to terms with that we are screwed
    Leavers on their own could not pass a deal.

    And blame can wait until we find out if we are getting no deal or a deal or whatever. Whining about blame when we are in the middle and we don't know how much blame is necessary to apportion out is yet another distraction.
    Albeit none of us on PB can do much about progressing the actual solution, so we might as well be distracted. :smile:
    Well quite, but I'd rather hope parliamentarians are keeping their eyes on the ball, and yet they too are focused either on the last battle (the first referendum aka as the second referendum) and the next battle (who to blame for this clusterf*ck without seeming anti the public who voted for it in the first place), rather than the battle before them.
  • Belgium in political crisis tonight according to the Guardian

    Isn’t that normal?
    Belgium to come to a standstill on early elections.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 10,221

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Who cares about May?! Why are people only seeming to care about this issue based on if it causes May to go or not?! Brexit is more important, the question should be how we get to a resolution, and if that happens to lead to May staying or leaving so be it.
    We get to a resolution by having a PM who can get us to a resolution. That isn't May.
    There is no resolution beyond the Deal May agreed other than No Deal or Remain/BINO.
    Yes there is.

    If you believe there's no possible other negotiations because the other side have said so then you're the most gullible person on earth and I have a bridge to sell to you.
    You persist in your unicorn fantasies then while the rest of us live in the real world, this is the only Deal on offer and the backstop is inescapable, it is this Deal, No Deal or no Brexit at all
    This is the only Deal on offer as its the only deal negotiated because May is piss weak.

    If the backstop is inescapable then No Deal. Fine by me. Its no backstop or no deal for me.
    Good job the HoC and the country at large have got more sense than you then.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 50,888

    If the PM had been a Leaver, I doubt they would have got around to appointing their Cabinet by now - and they would be blaming Remainers for the delay.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 47,776

    Scott_P said:

    A decent Brexit was possible.

    It really wasn't.

    Until Leavers come to terms with that we are screwed
    Labour haven’t come to terms with it.

    They are pretty shameless about signalling they are there for remainers, while promising unicorns to leavers. So far so politics, but it does denude them of any highground in criticising vague and unrealistic campaigns of Leave or the Tories.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Who cares about May?! Why are people only seeming to care about this issue based on if it causes May to go or not?! Brexit is more important, the question should be how we get to a resolution, and if that happens to lead to May staying or leaving so be it.
    We get to a resolution by having a PM who can get us to a resolution. That isn't May.
    There is no resolution beyond the Deal May agreed other than No Deal or Remain/BINO.
    Yes there is.

    If you believe there's no possible other negotiations because the other side have said so then you're the most gullible person on earth and I have a bridge to sell to you.
    You persist in your unicorn fantasies then while the rest of us live in the real world, this is the only Deal on offer and the backstop is inescapable, it is this Deal, No Deal or no Brexit at all
    This is the only Deal on offer as its the only deal negotiated because May is piss weak.

    If the backstop is inescapable then No Deal. Fine by me. Its no backstop or no deal for me.
    Good job the HoC and the country at large have got more sense than you then.
    Does it?

    Looks like the HoC is going to agree with me and reject this deal. Remove the backstop and it will pass the deal. Just as I support.
  • Belgium in political crisis tonight according to the Guardian

    Isn’t that normal?
    Belgium to come to a standstill on early elections.
    As I say, isn’t that normal in Belgium. It feels like if they aren’t having a GE, they are still trying to put together a ruling coalition from the previous one.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    edited December 2018

    May and her Remainers had nothing to do with the great Brexit betrayal in your world I suppose. I am no admirer of Farage but the idea of voting Tory once Brexit is betrayed is abhorrent - won’t happen.

    Firstly, can you define the 'Great Brexit Betrayal' ?

    Secondly, what sort of Brexit do you want? How does it differ from May's deal?

    Thirdly, who on the leave side could have negotiated a 'better' (in your view) Brexit? Because there's a rather severe paucity of talent amongst the Conservative leavers.
    1. Brexit won’t happen. May’s deal is Brino and it will be either that or Temain who’ve already lost once if it comes to a second referendum.

    2. A FTA akin to Canada would have suited me with the EU having no control over our laws, money fishing or borders and vice versa. Failing that, no deal is better than a bad deal (or staying in).

    3. Almost anyone who voted Leave.
    1. No, it isn't BRINO. Leavers such as Richard Tyndall - hardly soft on the EU - have said they reluctantly accept the deal as it means we're leaving. (I hope I've represented his position correctly.) I think the same is true for others such as RCS and CasinoRoyale. If you really think it's BRINO, and they don't, then that highlights the exact issue I've been talking about.

    2. I doubt that was really available, and no deal will be disastrous.

    3. No. Simply no. Taking the top Conservative leave politicians: IDS wouldn't have, and neither would Davis. And Boris? Don't make me laugh. Gove... Now Gove is an interesting one. Perhaps, with a following wind. But the ERG winnets wouldn't have liked what he'd probably come up with.

    1. How are we leaving with us having EU laws, being into the Single Market and the Customs Union and the CFP, having nothing agreed on trade after the Wothdrawal Agreement expires and immigration and therefore nothing agreed on paying for trade.

    2. Neither have been tried so your arrogant dismissal is really not worth anything - except a laugh. Ignorance is bliss I suppose.

    3. Difficult to imagine anyone doing a worse job. May has just capitulated.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 47,776

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    A decent Brexit was possible.

    It really wasn't.

    Until Leavers come to terms with that we are screwed
    Leavers on their own could not pass a deal.

    And blame can wait until we find out if we are getting no deal or a deal or whatever. Whining about blame when we are in the middle and we don't know how much blame is necessary to apportion out is yet another distraction.
    Leavers on their own are content with the default (no deal) more than Remainers are. If we reached a leave-based deal Remainers could either get on board or cause a no deal.
    We have reached a leave based deal, too many are just unhappy about the specifics. And if most leavers are happy with no deal fine, but when parliament finds a route to remain instead of that I hope those that are happy with no deal don't whinge, since they insisted on all or nothing.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 27,418

    Belgium in political crisis tonight according to the Guardian

    How can they tell?
  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    A decent Brexit was possible.

    It really wasn't.

    Until Leavers come to terms with that we are screwed
    Leavers on their own could not pass a deal.

    And blame can wait until we find out if we are getting no deal or a deal or whatever. Whining about blame when we are in the middle and we don't know how much blame is necessary to apportion out is yet another distraction.
    Leavers on their own are content with the default (no deal) more than Remainers are. If we reached a leave-based deal Remainers could either get on board or cause a no deal.
    We have reached a leave based deal, too many are just unhappy about the specifics. And if most leavers are happy with no deal fine, but when parliament finds a route to remain instead of that I hope those that are happy with no deal don't whinge, since they insisted on all or nothing.
    What's leave-based about the backstop?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 27,418

    Belgium in political crisis tonight according to the Guardian

    How can they tell?
    EDIT Although it might make it difficult if the EU has to get unanimity on any Article 50 extension
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Who cares about May?! Why are people only seeming to care about this issue based on if it causes May to go or not?! Brexit is more important, the question should be how we get to a resolution, and if that happens to lead to May staying or leaving so be it.
    We get to a resolution by having a PM who can get us to a resolution. That isn't May.
    There is no resolution beyond the Deal May agreed other than No Deal or Remain/BINO.
    Yes there is.

    If you believe there's no possible other negotiations because the other side have said so then you're the most gullible person on earth and I have a bridge to sell to you.
    You persist in your unicorn fantasies then while the rest of us live in the real world, this is the only Deal on offer and the backstop is inescapable, it is this Deal, No Deal or no Brexit at all
    This is the only Deal on offer as its the only deal negotiated because May is piss weak.

    If the backstop is inescapable then No Deal. Fine by me. Its no backstop or no deal for me.
    Good job the HoC and the country at large have got more sense than you then.
    Does it?

    Looks like the HoC is going to agree with me and reject this deal. Remove the backstop and it will pass the deal. Just as I support.
    I cannot see it though the EU may play with words

    Personally I would challenge it's legality in the ECJ
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    Scott_P said:

    If the PM had been a Leaver, I doubt they would have got around to appointing their Cabinet by now - and they would be blaming Remainers for the delay.

    I don’t think anyone is promising, just that it is likely. If we are lucky it won’t spiral out of control. Don’t assume that cancelling Brexit would be consequence free. It won’t.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Who cares about May?! Why are people only seeming to care about this issue based on if it causes May to go or not?! Brexit is more important, the question should be how we get to a resolution, and if that happens to lead to May staying or leaving so be it.
    We get to a resolution by having a PM who can get us to a resolution. That isn't May.
    There is no resolution beyond the Deal May agreed other than No Deal or Remain/BINO.
    Yes there is.

    If you believe there's no possible other negotiations because the other side have said so then you're the most gullible person on earth and I have a bridge to sell to you.
    You persist in your unicorn fantasies then while the rest of us live in the real world, this is the only Deal on offer and the backstop is inescapable, it is this Deal, No Deal or no Brexit at all
    This is the only Deal on offer as its the only deal negotiated because May is piss weak.

    If the backstop is inescapable then No Deal. Fine by me. Its no backstop or no deal for me.
    Good job the HoC and the country at large have got more sense than you then.
    Does it?

    Looks like the HoC is going to agree with me and reject this deal. Remove the backstop and it will pass the deal. Just as I support.
    I cannot see it though the EU may play with words

    Personally I would challenge it's legality in the ECJ
    If the HoC stands firm the EU will have to choose between No Deal and No Backstop.

    Do you really think the EU would really choose No Deal? The only reason we are where we are is because the EU thought the UK wouldn't stand firm.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 47,776
    John_M said:

    May and her Remainers had nothing to do with the great Brexit betrayal in your world I suppose. I am no admirer of Farage but the idea of voting Tory once Brexit is betrayed is abhorrent - won’t happen.

    Firstly, can you define the 'Great Brexit Betrayal' ?

    Secondly, what sort of Brexit do you want? How does it differ from May's deal?

    Thirdly, who on the leave side could have negotiated a 'better' (in your view) Brexit? Because there's a rather severe paucity of talent amongst the Conservative leavers.
    1. Brexit won

    3. Almost anyone who voted Leave.
    3. If only the Brexit Secretary had been a Leaver, eh? Oh...
    If the only t a job.
    I will be eternally baffled as to why HMG attempted a bespoke WA. Well, not baffled exactly - the Tory party would have eaten its own feet if May had tried, but objectively, a period of reflection in EFTA/EEA + CU would have been easy to accomplish, if some of the welfare measures (discussed ad nauseam on here) had been implemented.
    As you suggest the attempt at one is not in itself baffling, but I think the big issue was May put off a decision so long in an attempt to stave off internal Tory divisions that she gambled it all on assuming something could be pulled together in good old EU fashion at the end. Which didn't work the last time which is why we voted to leave. If she and other Tories had accepted the disparate wings of the party were not capable of being brought together and that they had to get it out into the open earlier, nail down a direction, then perhaps either this approach would have been revealed to have been fatally flawed earlier, or they could have settled on less bespoke options.

    In that delay, May is truly deserving of the criticism she gets. I remember being quite stunned to discover that as of the middle of this year not even the Cabinet had come to a consensus view of things. Sure the wider Tory party that was expected, but not even the couple dozen Cabinet figures had sorted it out. As the Leader May must take the blame for not even trying to settle it, constantly putting it off. She has earned some credit for trying very hard at the end, and being much clearer about what she regards as unacceptable about other options, but it is way too late.
  • notme said:

    Scott_P said:

    If the PM had been a Leaver, I doubt they would have got around to appointing their Cabinet by now - and they would be blaming Remainers for the delay.

    I don’t think anyone is promising, just that it is likely. If we are lucky it won’t spiral out of control. Don’t assume that cancelling Brexit would be consequence free. It won’t.
    If Brexit gets cancelled we maintain our right to invoke again starting a new 2 year clock. We lose that right if we exit with the WA and are tied forever into backstop purgatory.

    If Brexit gets cancelled then EUref3 will just be a matter of time. And if that happens then there is no chance it will be negotiated by a Remainer next time.
This discussion has been closed.