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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » BACK TO THE FUTURE – Part 2 The past is a foreign country – Re

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Comments

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 65,319

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Who cares about May?! Why are people only seeming to care about this issue based on if it causes May to go or not?! Brexit is more important, the question should be how we get to a resolution, and if that happens to lead to May staying or leaving so be it.
    We get to a resolution by having a PM who can get us to a resolution. That isn't May.
    There is no resolution beyond the Deal May agreed other than No Deal or Remain/BINO.
    Yes there is.

    If you believe there's no possible other negotiations because the other side have said so then you're the most gullible person on earth and I have a bridge to sell to you.
    You persist in your unicorn fantasies then while the rest of us live in the real world, this is the only Deal on offer and the backstop is inescapable, it is this Deal, No Deal or no Brexit at all
    This is the only Deal on offer as its the only deal negotiated because May is piss weak.

    If the backstop is inescapable then No Deal. Fine by me. Its no backstop or no deal for me.
    Good job the HoC and the country at large have got more sense than you then.
    Does it?

    Looks like the HoC is going to agree with me and reject this deal. Remove the backstop and it will pass the deal. Just as I support.
    I cannot see it though the EU may play with words

    Personally I would challenge it's legality in the ECJ
    If the HoC stands firm the EU will have to choose between No Deal and No Backstop.

    Do you really think the EU would really choose No Deal? The only reason we are where we are is because the EU thought the UK wouldn't stand firm.
    16% of EU exports go to the UK, 44% of UK exports to the EU, only one party would blink over the risk of No Deal and it would not be the EU
  • Belgium in political crisis tonight according to the Guardian

    How can they tell?
    The Prime Mimister has been to see the King as far as I can tell and the Country iscfacing a GE at the same time as the EU elections
  • glwglw Posts: 5,619

    If the HoC stands firm the EU will have to choose between No Deal and No Backstop.

    Do you really think the EU would really choose No Deal? The only reason we are where we are is because the EU thought the UK wouldn't stand firm.

    Please explain why we won't blink but the EU will.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Who cares about May?! Why are people only seeming to care about this issue based on if it causes May to go or not?! Brexit is more important, the question should be how we get to a resolution, and if that happens to lead to May staying or leaving so be it.
    We get to a resolution by having a PM who can get us to a resolution. That isn't May.
    There is no resolution beyond the Deal May agreed other than No Deal or Remain/BINO.
    Yes there is.

    If you believe there's no possible other negotiations because the other side have said so then you're the most gullible person on earth and I have a bridge to sell to you.
    You persist in your unicorn fantasies then while the rest of us live in the real world, this is the only Deal on offer and the backstop is inescapable, it is this Deal, No Deal or no Brexit at all
    This is the only Deal on offer as its the only deal negotiated because May is piss weak.

    If the backstop is inescapable then No Deal. Fine by me. Its no backstop or no deal for me.
    Good job the HoC and the country at large have got more sense than you then.
    Does it?

    Looks like the HoC is going to agree with me and reject this deal. Remove the backstop and it will pass the deal. Just as I support.
    I cannot see it though the EU may play with words

    Personally I would challenge it's legality in the ECJ
    If the HoC stands firm the EU will have to choose between No Deal and No Backstop.

    Do you really think the EU would really choose No Deal? The only reason we are where we are is because the EU thought the UK wouldn't stand firm.
    Yes I do
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Who cares about May?! Why are people only seeming to care about this issue based on if it causes May to go or not?! Brexit is more important, the question should be how we get to a resolution, and if that happens to lead to May staying or leaving so be it.
    We get to a resolution by having a PM who can get us to a resolution. That isn't May.
    There is no resolution beyond the Deal May agreed other than No Deal or Remain/BINO.
    Yes there is.

    If you believe there's no possible other negotiations because the other side have said so then you're the most gullible person on earth and I have a bridge to sell to you.
    You persist in your unicorn fantasies then while the rest of us live in the real world, this is the only Deal on offer and the backstop is inescapable, it is this Deal, No Deal or no Brexit at all
    This is the only Deal on offer as its the only deal negotiated because May is piss weak.

    If the backstop is inescapable then No Deal. Fine by me. Its no backstop or no deal for me.
    Good job the HoC and the country at large have got more sense than you then.
    Does it?

    Looks like the HoC is going to agree with me and reject this deal. Remove the backstop and it will pass the deal. Just as I support.
    I cannot see it though the EU may play with words

    Personally I would challenge it's legality in the ECJ
    If the HoC stands firm the EU will have to choose between No Deal and No Backstop.

    Do you really think the EU would really choose No Deal? The only reason we are where we are is because the EU thought the UK wouldn't stand firm.
    16% of EU exports go to the UK, 44% of UK exports to the EU, only one party would blink over the risk of No Deal and it would not be the EU
    That's a bullshit statistic and you know it.

    80% of Irish goods exports go to or through the UK.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 65,319

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Who cares about May?! Why are people only seeming to care about this issue based on if it causes May to go or not?! Brexit is more important, the question should be how we get to a resolution, and if that happens to lead to May staying or leaving so be it.
    We get to a resolution by having a PM who can get us to a resolution. That isn't May.
    There is no resolution beyond the Deal May agreed other than No Deal or Remain/BINO.
    Yes there is.

    If you believe there's no possible other negotiations because the other side have said so then you're the most gullible person on earth and I have a bridge to sell to you.
    You persist in your unicorn fantasies then while the rest of us live in the real world, this is the only Deal on offer and the backstop is inescapable, it is this Deal, No Deal or no Brexit at all
    This is the only Deal on offer as its the only deal negotiated because May is piss weak.

    If the backstop is inescapable then No Deal. Fine by me. Its no backstop or no deal for me.
    Fine but voters as a whole back the Deal over No Deal 65% to 35% with YouGov, so in a democracy you lose
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    glw said:

    If the HoC stands firm the EU will have to choose between No Deal and No Backstop.

    Do you really think the EU would really choose No Deal? The only reason we are where we are is because the EU thought the UK wouldn't stand firm.

    Please explain why we won't blink but the EU will.
    Because now it seems possible.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Who cares about May?! Why are people only seeming to care about this issue based on if it causes May to go or not?! Brexit is more important, the question should be how we get to a resolution, and if that happens to lead to May staying or leaving so be it.
    We get to a resolution by having a PM who can get us to a resolution. That isn't May.
    There is no resolution beyond the Deal May agreed other than No Deal or Remain/BINO.
    Yes there is.

    If you believe there's no possible other negotiations because the other side have said so then you're the most gullible person on earth and I have a bridge to sell to you.
    You persist in your unicorn fantasies then while the rest of us live in the real world, this is the only Deal on offer and the backstop is inescapable, it is this Deal, No Deal or no Brexit at all
    This is the only Deal on offer as its the only deal negotiated because May is piss weak.

    If the backstop is inescapable then No Deal. Fine by me. Its no backstop or no deal for me.
    Good job the HoC and the country at large have got more sense than you then.
    Does it?

    Looks like the HoC is going to agree with me and reject this deal. Remove the backstop and it will pass the deal. Just as I support.
    I cannot see it though the EU may play with words

    Personally I would challenge it's legality in the ECJ
    If the HoC stands firm the EU will have to choose between No Deal and No Backstop.

    Do you really think the EU would really choose No Deal? The only reason we are where we are is because the EU thought the UK wouldn't stand firm.
    It is not up to the EU. It is up to us.

    We ARE actually sovereign.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 11,206

    Belgium in political crisis tonight according to the Guardian

    How can they tell?
    EDIT Although it might make it difficult if the EU has to get unanimity on any Article 50 extension
    But if the ECJ supports their AG's recommendation at tomorrow's 8:00am ruling, we will not need the EU to approve a revocation.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Who cares about May?! Why are people only seeming to care about this issue based on if it causes May to go or not?! Brexit is more important, the question should be how we get to a resolution, and if that happens to lead to May staying or leaving so be it.
    We get to a resolution by having a PM who can get us to a resolution. That isn't May.
    There is no resolution beyond the Deal May agreed other than No Deal or Remain/BINO.
    Yes there is.

    If you believe there's no possible other negotiations because the other side have said so then you're the most gullible person on earth and I have a bridge to sell to you.
    You persist in your unicorn fantasies then while the rest of us live in the real world, this is the only Deal on offer and the backstop is inescapable, it is this Deal, No Deal or no Brexit at all
    This is the only Deal on offer as its the only deal negotiated because May is piss weak.

    If the backstop is inescapable then No Deal. Fine by me. Its no backstop or no deal for me.
    Fine but voters as a whole back the Deal over No Deal 65% to 35% with YouGov, so in a democracy you lose
    Opinion polls are garbage not democracy. Try again.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 65,319

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Who cares about May?! Why are people only seeming to care about this issue based on if it causes May to go or not?! Brexit is more important, the question should be how we get to a resolution, and if that happens to lead to May staying or leaving so be it.
    We get to a resolution by having a PM who can get us to a resolution. That isn't May.
    There is no resolution beyond the Deal May agreed other than No Deal or Remain/BINO.
    Yes there is.

    If you believe there's no possible other negotiations because the other side have said so then you're the most gullible person on earth and I have a bridge to sell to you.
    You persist in your unicorn fantasies then while the rest of us live in the real world, this is the only Deal on offer and the backstop is inescapable, it is this Deal, No Deal or no Brexit at all
    Tell us, what's your background in international negotiations? Because you speak with such certainty, I'd REALLY love to see your CV...
    What has that got to do with anything? When we are negotiating with a market almost 10 times our size we are not going to be able to dictate terms to them however brilliant the CV of the negotiator
  • glw said:

    If the HoC stands firm the EU will have to choose between No Deal and No Backstop.

    Do you really think the EU would really choose No Deal? The only reason we are where we are is because the EU thought the UK wouldn't stand firm.

    Please explain why we won't blink but the EU will.
    Because the EU can. Because the EU are bluffing.

    The Irish line is that they are so desperate to avoid any chance of no deal that they need a guarantee there will never be no deal.

    If they want a guarantee of no deal, they're not going to really go through with no deal.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 30,004
    edited December 2018
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Who cares about May?! Why are people only seeming to care about this issue based on if it causes May to go or not?! Brexit is more important, the question should be how we get to a resolution, and if that happens to lead to May staying or leaving so be it.
    We get to a resolution by having a PM who can get us to a resolution. That isn't May.
    There is no resolution beyond the Deal May agreed other than No Deal or Remain/BINO.
    Yes there is.

    If you believe there's no possible other negotiations because the other side have said so then you're the most gullible person on earth and I have a bridge to sell to you.
    You persist in your unicorn fantasies then while the rest of us live in the real world, this is the only Deal on offer and the backstop is inescapable, it is this Deal, No Deal or no Brexit at all
    This is the only Deal on offer as its the only deal negotiated because May is piss weak.

    If the backstop is inescapable then No Deal. Fine by me. Its no backstop or no deal for me.
    Good job the HoC and the country at large have got more sense than you then.
    Does it?

    Looks like the HoC is going to agree with me and reject this deal. Remove the backstop and it will pass the deal. Just as I support.
    I cannot see it though the EU may play with words

    Personally I would challenge it's legality in the ECJ
    If the HoC stands firm the EU will have to choose between No Deal and No Backstop.

    Do you really think the EU would really choose No Deal? The only reason we are where we are is because the EU thought the UK wouldn't stand firm.
    16% of EU exports go to the UK, 44% of UK exports to the EU, only one party would blink over the risk of No Deal and it would not be the EU
    Is the backstop REALLY worth losing 1/8 of the EU's economy?

    I mean - REALLY? Because the EU economies are in such great shape, they can afford to just chuck away 1 in 8 of everything they produce.

  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Who cares about May?! Why are people only seeming to care about this issue based on if it causes May to go or not?! Brexit is more important, the question should be how we get to a resolution, and if that happens to lead to May staying or leaving so be it.
    We get to a resolution by having a PM who can get us to a resolution. That isn't May.
    There is no resolution beyond the Deal May agreed other than No Deal or Remain/BINO.
    Yes there is.

    If you believe there's no possible other negotiations because the other side have said so then you're the most gullible person on earth and I have a bridge to sell to you.
    You persist in your unicorn fantasies then while the rest of us live in the real world, this is the only Deal on offer and the backstop is inescapable, it is this Deal, No Deal or no Brexit at all
    This is the only Deal on offer as its the only deal negotiated because May is piss weak.

    If the backstop is inescapable then No Deal. Fine by me. Its no backstop or no deal for me.
    Good job the HoC and the country at large have got more sense than you then.
    Does it?

    Looks like the HoC is going to agree with me and reject this deal. Remove the backstop and it will pass the deal. Just as I support.
    I cannot see it though the EU may play with words

    Personally I would challenge it's legality in the ECJ
    If the HoC stands firm the EU will have to choose between No Deal and No Backstop.

    Do you really think the EU would really choose No Deal? The only reason we are where we are is because the EU thought the UK wouldn't stand firm.
    16% of EU exports go to the UK, 44% of UK exports to the EU, only one party would blink over the risk of No Deal and it would not be the EU

    Our trade deficit is so laughably large with the rEU we would (saying as someone who is a massive free trade supporter) would see positive displacement of imports far in excess of potentially lost exports.
  • notme said:

    Scott_P said:

    If the PM had been a Leaver, I doubt they would have got around to appointing their Cabinet by now - and they would be blaming Remainers for the delay.

    I don’t think anyone is promising, just that it is likely. If we are lucky it won’t spiral out of control. Don’t assume that cancelling Brexit would be consequence free. It won’t.
    If Brexit gets cancelled we maintain our right to invoke again starting a new 2 year clock. We lose that right if we exit with the WA and are tied forever into backstop purgatory.

    If Brexit gets cancelled then EUref3 will just be a matter of time. And if that happens then there is no chance it will be negotiated by a Remainer next time.
    If A50 is revokable it is subject to a no mischief clause prohibiting revoking it on the grounds you suggest

    It should be clear tomorrow when the ECJ announce their ruling
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Who cares about May?! Why are people only seeming to care about this issue based on if it causes May to go or not?! Brexit is more important, the question should be how we get to a resolution, and if that happens to lead to May staying or leaving so be it.
    We get to a resolution by having a PM who can get us to a resolution. That isn't May.
    There is no resolution beyond the Deal May agreed other than No Deal or Remain/BINO.
    Yes there is.

    If you believe there's no possible other negotiations because the other side have said so then you're the most gullible person on earth and I have a bridge to sell to you.
    You persist in your unicorn fantasies then while the rest of us live in the real world, this is the only Deal on offer and the backstop is inescapable, it is this Deal, No Deal or no Brexit at all
    Tell us, what's your background in international negotiations? Because you speak with such certainty, I'd REALLY love to see your CV...
    What has that got to do with anything? When we are negotiating with a market almost 10 times our size we are not going to be able to dictate terms to them however brilliant the CV of the negotiator
    Small businesses negotiate good terms with bigger businesses all the time. Size isn't everything.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 65,319

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Who cares about May?! Why are people only seeming to care about this issue based on if it causes May to go or not?! Brexit is more important, the question should be how we get to a resolution, and if that happens to lead to May staying or leaving so be it.
    We get to a resolution by having a PM who can get us to a resolution. That isn't May.
    There is no resolution beyond the Deal May agreed other than No Deal or Remain/BINO.
    Yes there is.

    If you believe there's no possible other negotiations because the other side have said so then you're the most gullible person on earth and I have a bridge to sell to you.
    You persist in your unicorn fantasies then while the rest of us live in the real world, this is the only Deal on offer and the backstop is inescapable, it is this Deal, No Deal or no Brexit at all
    This is the only Deal on offer as its the only deal negotiated because May is piss weak.

    If the backstop is inescapable then No Deal. Fine by me. Its no backstop or no deal for me.
    Good job the HoC and the country at large have got more sense than you then.
    Does it?

    Looks like the HoC is going to agree with me and reject this deal. Remove the backstop and it will pass the deal. Just as I support.
    I cannot see it though the EU may play with words

    Personally I would challenge it's legality in the ECJ
    If the HoC stands firm the EU will have to choose between No Deal and No Backstop.

    Do you really think the EU would really choose No Deal? The only reason we are where we are is because the EU thought the UK wouldn't stand firm.
    16% of EU exports go to the UK, 44% of UK exports to the EU, only one party would blink over the risk of No Deal and it would not be the EU
    That's a bullshit statistic and you know it.

    80% of Irish goods exports go to or through the UK.
    Only 15% of Irish exports actually go to the UK, in fact Belgium is a bigger export market for Ireland now than the UK
    https://www.thejournal.ie/ireland-britain-belgium-2866202-Jul2016/
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    notme said:

    Scott_P said:

    If the PM had been a Leaver, I doubt they would have got around to appointing their Cabinet by now - and they would be blaming Remainers for the delay.

    I don’t think anyone is promising, just that it is likely. If we are lucky it won’t spiral out of control. Don’t assume that cancelling Brexit would be consequence free. It won’t.
    If Brexit gets cancelled we maintain our right to invoke again starting a new 2 year clock. We lose that right if we exit with the WA and are tied forever into backstop purgatory.

    If Brexit gets cancelled then EUref3 will just be a matter of time. And if that happens then there is no chance it will be negotiated by a Remainer next time.

    It’s a heck of a gamble. The person withdrawing article 50 would have to be trusted as a true believer, such as Boris, gove or mogg.
  • notme said:

    Scott_P said:

    If the PM had been a Leaver, I doubt they would have got around to appointing their Cabinet by now - and they would be blaming Remainers for the delay.

    I don’t think anyone is promising, just that it is likely. If we are lucky it won’t spiral out of control. Don’t assume that cancelling Brexit would be consequence free. It won’t.
    If Brexit gets cancelled we maintain our right to invoke again starting a new 2 year clock. We lose that right if we exit with the WA and are tied forever into backstop purgatory.

    If Brexit gets cancelled then EUref3 will just be a matter of time. And if that happens then there is no chance it will be negotiated by a Remainer next time.
    If A50 is revokable it is subject to a no mischief clause prohibiting revoking it on the grounds you suggest

    It should be clear tomorrow when the ECJ announce their ruling
    Revoking then immediately reinvoking would be mischief.

    Revoking, years later a sceptic becomes PM, holds a new referendum resulting in a Leave win (again) and then invoking would not be mischief.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 11,206

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Who cares about May?! Why are people only seeming to care about this issue based on if it causes May to go or not?! Brexit is more important, the question should be how we get to a resolution, and if that happens to lead to May staying or leaving so be it.
    We get to a resolution by having a PM who can get us to a resolution. That isn't May.
    There is no resolution beyond the Deal May agreed other than No Deal or Remain/BINO.
    Yes there is.

    If you believe there's no possible other negotiations because the other side have said so then you're the most gullible person on earth and I have a bridge to sell to you.
    You persist in your unicorn fantasies then while the rest of us live in the real world, this is the only Deal on offer and the backstop is inescapable, it is this Deal, No Deal or no Brexit at all
    This is the only Deal on offer as its the only deal negotiated because May is piss weak.

    If the backstop is inescapable then No Deal. Fine by me. Its no backstop or no deal for me.
    Good job the HoC and the country at large have got more sense than you then.
    Does it?

    Looks like the HoC is going to agree with me and reject this deal. Remove the backstop and it will pass the deal. Just as I support.
    I cannot see it though the EU may play with words

    Personally I would challenge it's legality in the ECJ
    If the HoC stands firm the EU will have to choose between No Deal and No Backstop.

    Do you really think the EU would really choose No Deal? The only reason we are where we are is because the EU thought the UK wouldn't stand firm.
    It is not up to the EU. It is up to us.

    We ARE actually sovereign.
    Never mind 'take back control' we had it all along but seem to be singularly inept at exercising it!

    I suspect some people will look at the relative performance of the negotiating teams and wonder why anyone would want to wrest control from strong and competent Brussels to the shambles that is Westminster.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,334
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    A decent Brexit was possible.

    It really wasn't.

    Until Leavers come to terms with that we are screwed
    Leavers on their own could not pass a deal.

    And blame can wait until we find out if we are getting no deal or a deal or whatever. Whining about blame when we are in the middle and we don't know how much blame is necessary to apportion out is yet another distraction.
    Leavers on their own are content with the default (no deal) more than Remainers are. If we reached a leave-based deal Remainers could either get on board or cause a no deal.
    We have reached a leave based deal, too many are just unhappy about the specifics. And if most leavers are happy with no deal fine, but when parliament finds a route to remain instead of that I hope those that are happy with no deal don't whinge, since they insisted on all or nothing.
    There will be many aspects of Brexit that will be looked at with amazement and disbelief by future generations but the story of how Brexit was lost because it's proponents could not agree on how to leave will surely attract the most attention. They took a once in a lifetime, never to be repeated, opportunity of enacting something they had spent years dreaming about and causally threw it away.
  • glw said:

    If the HoC stands firm the EU will have to choose between No Deal and No Backstop.

    Do you really think the EU would really choose No Deal? The only reason we are where we are is because the EU thought the UK wouldn't stand firm.

    Please explain why we won't blink but the EU will.
    Because the EU can. Because the EU are bluffing.

    The Irish line is that they are so desperate to avoid any chance of no deal that they need a guarantee there will never be no deal.

    If they want a guarantee of no deal, they're not going to really go through with no deal.
    You may be in for a shock
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 65,319

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Who cares about May?! Why are people only seeming to care about this issue based on if it causes May to go or not?! Brexit is more important, the question should be how we get to a resolution, and if that happens to lead to May staying or leaving so be it.
    We get to a resolution by having a PM who can get us to a resolution. That isn't May.
    There is no resolution beyond the Deal May agreed other than No Deal or Remain/BINO.
    Yes there is.

    If you believe there's no possible other negotiations because the other side have said so then you're the most gullible person on earth and I have a bridge to sell to you.
    You persist in your unicorn fantasies then while the rest of us live in the real world, this is the only Deal on offer and the backstop is inescapable, it is this Deal, No Deal or no Brexit at all
    Tell us, what's your background in international negotiations? Because you speak with such certainty, I'd REALLY love to see your CV...
    What has that got to do with anything? When we are negotiating with a market almost 10 times our size we are not going to be able to dictate terms to them however brilliant the CV of the negotiator
    Small businesses negotiate good terms with bigger businesses all the time. Size isn't everything.
    Small businesses do not dictate terms to larger businesses especially when they are breaking away from a company they were previously merged with
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Small businesses negotiate good terms with bigger businesses all the time. Size isn't everything.

    True.

    We negotiated the best deal with the EU anyone got ever.

    And the Brexiteers torched it.
  • glw said:

    If the HoC stands firm the EU will have to choose between No Deal and No Backstop.

    Do you really think the EU would really choose No Deal? The only reason we are where we are is because the EU thought the UK wouldn't stand firm.

    Please explain why we won't blink but the EU will.
    Because the EU can. Because the EU are bluffing.

    The Irish line is that they are so desperate to avoid any chance of no deal that they need a guarantee there will never be no deal.

    If they want a guarantee of no deal, they're not going to really go through with no deal.
    You may be in for a shock
    Not as big as a shock as HYUFD is in for when he discovers that people don't always tell the truth.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Who cares about May?! Why are people only seeming to care about this issue based on if it causes May to go or not?! Brexit is more important, the question should be how we get to a resolution, and if that happens to lead to May staying or leaving so be it.
    We get to a resolution by having a PM who can get us to a resolution. That isn't May.
    There is no resolution beyond the Deal May agreed other than No Deal or Remain/BINO.
    Yes there is.

    If you believe there's no possible other negotiations because the other side have said so then you're the most gullible person on earth and I have a bridge to sell to you.
    You persist in your unicorn fantasies then while the rest of us live in the real world, this is the only Deal on offer and the backstop is inescapable, it is this Deal, No Deal or no Brexit at all
    This is the only Deal on offer as its the only deal negotiated because May is piss weak.

    If the backstop is inescapable then No Deal. Fine by me. Its no backstop or no deal for me.
    Good job the HoC and the country at large have got more sense than you then.
    Does it?

    Looks like the HoC is going to agree with me and reject this deal. Remove the backstop and it will pass the deal. Just as I support.
    I cannot see it though the EU may play with words

    Personally I would challenge it's legality in the ECJ
    If the HoC stands firm the EU will have to choose between No Deal and No Backstop.

    Do you really think the EU would really choose No Deal? The only reason we are where we are is because the EU thought the UK wouldn't stand firm.
    It is not up to the EU. It is up to us.

    We ARE actually sovereign.
    Never mind 'take back control' we had it all along but seem to be singularly inept at exercising it!

    I suspect some people will look at the relative performance of the negotiating teams and wonder why anyone would want to wrest control from strong and competent Brussels to the shambles that is Westminster.
    That is a depressingly true point.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 11,206
    notme said:

    notme said:

    Scott_P said:

    If the PM had been a Leaver, I doubt they would have got around to appointing their Cabinet by now - and they would be blaming Remainers for the delay.

    I don’t think anyone is promising, just that it is likely. If we are lucky it won’t spiral out of control. Don’t assume that cancelling Brexit would be consequence free. It won’t.
    If Brexit gets cancelled we maintain our right to invoke again starting a new 2 year clock. We lose that right if we exit with the WA and are tied forever into backstop purgatory.

    If Brexit gets cancelled then EUref3 will just be a matter of time. And if that happens then there is no chance it will be negotiated by a Remainer next time.

    It’s a heck of a gamble. The person withdrawing article 50 would have to be trusted as a true believer, such as Boris, gove or mogg.
    Boris and 'trusted in the same sentence. Novel!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 16,243

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Who cares about May?! Why are people only seeming to care about this issue based on if it causes May to go or not?! Brexit is more important, the question should be how we get to a resolution, and if that happens to lead to May staying or leaving so be it.
    We get to a resolution by having a PM who can get us to a resolution. That isn't May.
    There is no resolution beyond the Deal May agreed other than No Deal or Remain/BINO.
    Yes there is.

    If you believe there's no possible other negotiations because the other side have said so then you're the most gullible person on earth and I have a bridge to sell to you.
    You persist in your unicorn fantasies then while the rest of us live in the real world, this is the only Deal on offer and the backstop is inescapable, it is this Deal, No Deal or no Brexit at all
    Tell us, what's your background in international negotiations? Because you speak with such certainty, I'd REALLY love to see your CV...
    You sound a little like master international negotiator Donald Trump...
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Who cares about May?! Why are people only seeming to care about this issue based on if it causes May to go or not?! Brexit is more important, the question should be how we get to a resolution, and if that happens to lead to May staying or leaving so be it.
    We get to a resolution by having a PM who can get us to a resolution. That isn't May.
    There is no resolution beyond the Deal May agreed other than No Deal or Remain/BINO.
    Yes there is.

    If you believe there's no possible other negotiations because the other side have said so then you're the most gullible person on earth and I have a bridge to sell to you.
    You persist in your unicorn fantasies then while the rest of us live in the real world, this is the only Deal on offer and the backstop is inescapable, it is this Deal, No Deal or no Brexit at all
    This is the only Deal on offer as its the only deal negotiated because May is piss weak.

    If the backstop is inescapable then No Deal. Fine by me. Its no backstop or no deal for me.
    Good job the HoC and the country at large have got more sense than you then.
    Does it?

    Looks like the HoC is going to agree with me and reject this deal. Remove the backstop and it will pass the deal. Just as I support.
    I cannot see it though the EU may play with words

    Personally I would challenge it's legality in the ECJ
    If the HoC stands firm the EU will have to choose between No Deal and No Backstop.

    Do you really think the EU would really choose No Deal? The only reason we are where we are is because the EU thought the UK wouldn't stand firm.
    16% of EU exports go to the UK, 44% of UK exports to the EU, only one party would blink over the risk of No Deal and it would not be the EU
    That's a bullshit statistic and you know it.

    80% of Irish goods exports go to or through the UK.
    Only 15% of Irish exports actually go to the UK, in fact Belgium is a bigger export market for Ireland now than the UK
    https://www.thejournal.ie/ireland-britain-belgium-2866202-Jul2016/
    Re-read my post and try again.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 50,748


    If the HoC stands firm the EU will have to choose between No Deal and No Backstop.

    Do you really think the EU would really choose No Deal? The only reason we are where we are is because the EU thought the UK wouldn't stand firm.

    That is your opinion, and I hope you are right, but it is merely an assertion. You seem to believe that the UK has, because of its politics, not stood firm and suffered as a result, yet find it inconceivable that the EU, because of its politics, might stand too firm and suffer as a result.

    Nations and institutions agree or fail to agree things which cause them to suffer all the time. You are relying on the EU not only being superlative bluffers up to this point, but also not to suffer from any political issues which might, inadvertently, lead to a no deal situation. That could be right, but I would argue the very inclusion of the backstop was itself a sign the EU has overestimated its hand and underestimated the possibility of the UK going for no deal rather than sign something, anything.

    Given they have misjudged us in that sense, it is not inconceivable they will continue to do so and refuse to back down assuming we definitely will again. After all, they, like many remainers, are open that they do not understand our decision, they believe it is an act of epic self harm, near insane even - if the politicians driving it think that, they are less likely to believe we will actually go through with no deal, and thus no back down themselves.

    So it is not even merely a case of us needing to negotiate better. The EU also needs to either have been bluffing this whole time, or a lot more politically aware than they appear on this issue, or both.

    I may not know much about negotiation, but expecting total, cold rationality from political opponents when we accept our own politics has been far from mere cold rational analysis, is more risky than you imply.

    Is it worth trying? Yes, because there's little to lose now as the deal is voted down on Tuesday and for remainers at least there is likely to be a fall back position come Monday, so something new is needed to be tried, but we are still reliant on the EU doing what we want. Have they typically done that, ever?
  • glwglw Posts: 5,619
    notme said:

    Because now it seems possible.

    I'll be very surprised if the EU gives us anything more than a token change of language to give the government some febble justification to claim to have extracted more concessions.

    We're the one with the gun pointed to our head/feet daring the EU to make us pull the trigger. If we do so the EU aren't going to feel if half us much as we will.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 65,319

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Who cares about May?! Why are people only seeming to care about this issue based on if it causes May to go or not?! Brexit is more important, the question should be how we get to a resolution, and if that happens to lead to May staying or leaving so be it.
    We get to a resolution by having a PM who can get us to a resolution. That isn't May.
    There is no resolution beyond the Deal May agreed other than No Deal or Remain/BINO.
    Yes there is.

    If you believe there's no possible other negotiations because the other side have said so then you're the most gullible person on earth and I have a bridge to sell to you.
    You persist in your unicorn fantasies then while the rest of us live in the real world, this is the only Deal on offer and the backstop is inescapable, it is this Deal, No Deal or no Brexit at all
    This is the only Deal on offer as its the only deal negotiated because May is piss weak.

    If the backstop is inescapable then No Deal. Fine by me. Its no backstop or no deal for me.
    Good job the HoC and the country at large have got more sense than you then.
    Does it?

    Looks like the HoC is going to agree with me and reject this deal. Remove the backstop and it will pass the deal. Just as I support.
    I cannot see it though the EU may play with words

    Personally I would challenge it's legality in the ECJ
    If the HoC stands firm the EU will have to choose between No Deal and No Backstop.

    Do you really think the EU would really choose No Deal? The only reason we are where we are is because the EU thought the UK wouldn't stand firm.
    16% of EU exports go to the UK, 44% of UK exports to the EU, only one party would blink over the risk of No Deal and it would not be the EU
    Is the backstop REALLY worth losing 1/8 of the EU's economy?

    I mean - REALLY? Because the EU economies are in such great shape, they can afford to just chuck away 1 in 8 of everything they produce.

    They will not be chucking away 1/8 though it would reduce with hard Brexit but the EU is a political project as much as an economic one and they determined to ensure it must not be seen to be easy for any country to leave the EU
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Who cares about May?! Why are people only seeming to care about this issue based on if it causes May to go or not?! Brexit is more important, the question should be how we get to a resolution, and if that happens to lead to May staying or leaving so be it.
    We get to a resolution by having a PM who can get us to a resolution. That isn't May.
    There is no resolution beyond the Deal May agreed other than No Deal or Remain/BINO.
    Yes there is.

    If you believe there's no possible other negotiations because the other side have said so then you're the most gullible person on earth and I have a bridge to sell to you.
    You persist in your unicorn fantasies then while the rest of us live in the real world, this is the only Deal on offer and the backstop is inescapable, it is this Deal, No Deal or no Brexit at all
    Tell us, what's your background in international negotiations? Because you speak with such certainty, I'd REALLY love to see your CV...
    What has that got to do with anything? When we are negotiating with a market almost 10 times our size we are not going to be able to dictate terms to them however brilliant the CV of the negotiator
    Small businesses negotiate good terms with bigger businesses all the time. Size isn't everything.
    Your mistake is to think the EU are a business. They are not, this is a political construct and while I am sure you are an excellent businessman you certainly are not an EU politician
  • 85% of Irish freight traffic goes to Britain.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44657460
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 50,748

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    A decent Brexit was possible.

    It really wasn't.

    Until Leavers come to terms with that we are screwed
    Leavers on their own could not pass a deal.

    And blame can wait until we find out if we are getting no deal or a deal or whatever. Whining about blame when we are in the middle and we don't know how much blame is necessary to apportion out is yet another distraction.
    Leavers on their own are content with the default (no deal) more than Remainers are. If we reached a leave-based deal Remainers could either get on board or cause a no deal.
    We have reached a leave based deal, too many are just unhappy about the specifics. And if most leavers are happy with no deal fine, but when parliament finds a route to remain instead of that I hope those that are happy with no deal don't whinge, since they insisted on all or nothing.
    There will be many aspects of Brexit that will be looked at with amazement and disbelief by future generations but the story of how Brexit was lost because it's proponents could not agree on how to leave will surely attract the most attention. They took a once in a lifetime, never to be repeated, opportunity of enacting something they had spent years dreaming about and causally threw it away.
    Yes, probably. Because they feared, rightly or otherwise, that they would not be able to resolve the situation for the longer term. Sacrificing the whole chance because they didn't believe they could start things off right.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 65,319

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Who cares about May?! Why are people only seeming to care about this issue based on if it causes May to go or not?! Brexit is more important, the question should be how we get to a resolution, and if that happens to lead to May staying or leaving so be it.
    We get to a resolution by having a PM who can get us to a resolution. That isn't May.
    There is no resolution beyond the Deal May agreed other than No Deal or Remain/BINO.
    Yes tarth and I have a bridge to sell to you.
    e backstop is inescapable, it is this Deal, No Deal or no Brexit at all
    This is the only Deal on offer as its the only deal negotiated because May is piss weak.

    If the backstop is inescapable then No Deal. Fine by me. Its no backstop or no deal for me.
    Good job the HoC and the country at large have got more sense than you then.
    Does it?

    Looks like the HoC is going to agree with me and reject this deal. Remove the backstop and it will pass the deal. Just as I support.
    I cannot see it though the EU may play with words

    Personally I would challenge it's legality in the ECJ
    If the HoC stands firm the EU will have to choose between No Deal and No Backstop.

    Do you really think the EU would really choose No Deal? The only reason we are where we are is because the EU thought the UK wouldn't stand firm.
    16% of EU exports go to the UK, 44% of UK exports to the EU, only one party would blink over the risk of No Deal and it would not be the EU
    That's a bullshit statistic and you know it.

    80% of Irish goods exports go to or through the UK.
    Only 15% of Irish exports actually go to the UK, in fact Belgium is a bigger export market for Ireland now than the UK
    https://www.thejournal.ie/ireland-britain-belgium-2866202-Jul2016/
    Re-read my post and try again.
    Nothing to try again, my point stands
  • notme said:

    Scott_P said:

    If the PM had been a Leaver, I doubt they would have got around to appointing their Cabinet by now - and they would be blaming Remainers for the delay.

    I don’t think anyone is promising, just that it is likely. If we are lucky it won’t spiral out of control. Don’t assume that cancelling Brexit would be consequence free. It won’t.
    If Brexit gets cancelled we maintain our right to invoke again starting a new 2 year clock. We lose that right if we exit with the WA and are tied forever into backstop purgatory.

    If Brexit gets cancelled then EUref3 will just be a matter of time. And if that happens then there is no chance it will be negotiated by a Remainer next time.
    If A50 is revokable it is subject to a no mischief clause prohibiting revoking it on the grounds you suggest

    It should be clear tomorrow when the ECJ announce their ruling
    Revoking then immediately reinvoking would be mischief.

    Revoking, years later a sceptic becomes PM, holds a new referendum resulting in a Leave win (again) and then invoking would not be mischief.
    You really think any UK politician will support an EU referendum in a generation. This is your one and only chance and you are losing it
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 11,206

    glw said:

    If the HoC stands firm the EU will have to choose between No Deal and No Backstop.

    Do you really think the EU would really choose No Deal? The only reason we are where we are is because the EU thought the UK wouldn't stand firm.

    Please explain why we won't blink but the EU will.
    Because the EU can. Because the EU are bluffing.

    The Irish line is that they are so desperate to avoid any chance of no deal that they need a guarantee there will never be no deal.

    If they want a guarantee of no deal, they're not going to really go through with no deal.
    You may be in for a shock
    Not as big as a shock as HYUFD is in for when he discovers that people don't always tell the truth.
    Always best to disregard a poll if you don't like its findings; same for economic forecasts. :wink:
  • The EU and Ireland might concede a change in language. But who knows? I struggle to follow the logic of so many opponents of the deal, that a change that really affects nothing might satisfy them.

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 12,944

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Who cares about May?! Why are people only seeming to care about this issue based on if it causes May to go or not?! Brexit is more important, the question should be how we get to a resolution, and if that happens to lead to May staying or leaving so be it.
    We get to a resolution by having a PM who can get us to a resolution. That isn't May.
    There is no resolution beyond the Deal May agreed other than No Deal or Remain/BINO.
    Yes there is.

    If you believe there's no possible other negotiations because the other side have said so then you're the most gullible person on earth and I have a bridge to sell to you.
    You persist in your unicorn fantasies then while the rest of us live in the real world, this is the only Deal on offer and the backstop is inescapable, it is this Deal, No Deal or no Brexit at all
    This is the only Deal on offer as its the only deal negotiated because May is piss weak.

    If the backstop is inescapable then No Deal. Fine by me. Its no backstop or no deal for me.
    I cannot see it though the EU may play with words

    Personally I would challenge it's legality in the ECJ
    If the HoC stands firm the EU will have to choose between No Deal and No Backstop.

    Do you really think the EU would really choose No Deal? The only reason we are where we are is because the EU thought the UK wouldn't stand firm.
    It is not up to the EU. It is up to us.

    We ARE actually sovereign.
    Never mind 'take back control' we had it all along but seem to be singularly inept at exercising it!

    I suspect some people will look at the relative performance of the negotiating teams and wonder why anyone would want to wrest control from strong and competent Brussels to the shambles that is Westminster.
    That is a depressingly true point.
    Westminster/Whitehall in its current form is dead. It died years ago. It is an outdated offshoot of a second rate university debating club, stuffed by those who couldn’t quite cut it in the real world and those that want to play god.
  • kle4 said:


    If the HoC stands firm the EU will have to choose between No Deal and No Backstop.

    Do you really think the EU would really choose No Deal? The only reason we are where we are is because the EU thought the UK wouldn't stand firm.

    That is your opinion, and I hope you are right, but it is merely an assertion. You seem to believe that the UK has, because of its politics, not stood firm and suffered as a result, yet find it inconceivable that the EU, because of its politics, might stand too firm and suffer as a result.

    Nations and institutions agree or fail to agree things which cause them to suffer all the time. You are relying on the EU not only being superlative bluffers up to this point, but also not to suffer from any political issues which might, inadvertently, lead to a no deal situation. That could be right, but I would argue the very inclusion of the backstop was itself a sign the EU has overestimated its hand and underestimated the possibility of the UK going for no deal rather than sign something, anything.

    Given they have misjudged us in that sense, it is not inconceivable they will continue to do so and refuse to back down assuming we definitely will again. After all, they, like many remainers, are open that they do not understand our decision, they believe it is an act of epic self harm, near insane even - if the politicians driving it think that, they are less likely to believe we will actually go through with no deal, and thus no back down themselves.

    So it is not even merely a case of us needing to negotiate better. The EU also needs to either have been bluffing this whole time, or a lot more politically aware than they appear on this issue, or both.

    I may not know much about negotiation, but expecting total, cold rationality from political opponents when we accept our own politics has been far from mere cold rational analysis, is more risky than you imply.

    Is it worth trying? Yes, because there's little to lose now as the deal is voted down on Tuesday and for remainers at least there is likely to be a fall back position come Monday, so something new is needed to be tried, but we are still reliant on the EU doing what we want. Have they typically done that, ever?
    The difference is the reasons why we may or may not stand firm.

    The UK Brexiteers want to stand firm because it is a point of principle that the UK must set its own laws.

    The Irish are standing firm because they want to avoid no deal. Understandably given 85% of their freight goes to or through the UK.

    Therefore who is going to ultimately blink to avoid no deal if it went to the wire? Those led by principle or pragmatism?

    The problem is May has been too pragmatic. So she had to blink.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 50,748

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Who cares about May?! Why are people only seeming to care about this issue based on if it causes May to go or not?! Brexit is more important, the question should be how we get to a resolution, and if that happens to lead to May staying or leaving so be it.
    We get to a resolution by having a PM who can get us to a resolution. That isn't May.
    There is no resolution beyond the Deal May agreed other than No Deal or Remain/BINO.
    Yes there is.

    If you believe there's no possible other negotiations because the other side have said so then you're the most gullible person on earth and I have a bridge to sell to you.
    You persist in your unicorn fantasies then while the rest of us live in the real world, this is the only Deal on offer and the backstop is inescapable, it is this Deal, No Deal or no Brexit at all
    This is the only Deal on offer as its the only deal negotiated because May is piss weak.

    If the backstop is inescapable then No Deal. Fine by me. Its no backstop or no deal for me.
    Good jl. Just as I support.
    I cannot see it though the EU may play with words

    Personally I would challenge it's legality in the ECJ
    If the Hoouldn't stand firm.
    16% of EU exports go to the UK, 44% of UK exports to the EU, only one party would blink over the risk of No Deal and it would not be the EU
    Is the backstop REALLY worth losing 1/8 of the EU's economy?

    I mean - REALLY? Because the EU economies are in such great shape, they can afford to just chuck away 1 in 8 of everything they produce.

    I thought if the EU were going to concede on anything re the initial CHequers plan it would be the Irish backstop rather than, say, the customs stuff that was proposed. So far they haven't, good luck to whoever is PM next week to have another go.

    I fear that since the EU don't want us to leave either (being a net contributor and all) and because they believe Brexit itself (however it happens) to be irrational, they may stick to their guns believing either we will keep the backstop or remain. With our own parliament claiming to not countenance no deal, it would not even be surprising if they think that.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 65,319
    edited December 2018

    85% of Irish freight traffic goes to Britain.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44657460

    No most of it goes through Britain not to Britain at most and that is already regulated by separate international freight laws
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 30,004
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Who cares about May?! Why are people only seeming to care about this issue based on if it causes May to go or not?! Brexit is more important, the question should be how we get to a resolution, and if that happens to lead to May staying or leaving so be it.
    We get to a resolution by having a PM who can get us to a resolution. That isn't May.
    There is no resolution beyond the Deal May agreed other than No Deal or Remain/BINO.
    Yes there is.

    If you believe there's no possible other negotiations because the other side have said so then you're the most gullible person on earth and I have a bridge to sell to you.
    You persist in your unicorn fantasies then while the rest of us live in the real world, this is the only Deal on offer and the backstop is inescapable, it is this Deal, No Deal or no Brexit at all
    Tell us, what's your background in international negotiations? Because you speak with such certainty, I'd REALLY love to see your CV...
    What has that got to do with anything? When we are negotiating with a market almost 10 times our size we are not going to be able to dictate terms to them however brilliant the CV of the negotiator
    Bilge. I've completed plenty of satisfactory deals with megacorps that had a market cap 500 or 1,000 times larger than mine.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 50,748
    edited December 2018
    glw said:

    If the HoC stands firm the EU will have to choose between No Deal and No Backstop.

    Do you really think the EU would really choose No Deal? The only reason we are where we are is because the EU thought the UK wouldn't stand firm.

    Please explain why we won't blink but the EU will.
    Because our eyes are already clamped totally shut. Impossible to blink.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 11,206
    edited December 2018

    The EU and Ireland might concede a change in language. But who knows? I struggle to follow the logic of so many opponents of the deal, that a change that really affects nothing might satisfy them.

    I suspect something that allows them to save a bit of face when they crumble and vote for the WA is what we are seeking here.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 11,206

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Who cares about May?! Why are people only seeming to care about this issue based on if it causes May to go or not?! Brexit is more important, the question should be how we get to a resolution, and if that happens to lead to May staying or leaving so be it.
    We get to a resolution by having a PM who can get us to a resolution. That isn't May.
    There is no resolution beyond the Deal May agreed other than No Deal or Remain/BINO.
    Yes there is.

    If you believe there's no possible other negotiations because the other side have said so then you're the most gullible person on earth and I have a bridge to sell to you.
    You persist in your unicorn fantasies then while the rest of us live in the real world, this is the only Deal on offer and the backstop is inescapable, it is this Deal, No Deal or no Brexit at all
    Tell us, what's your background in international negotiations? Because you speak with such certainty, I'd REALLY love to see your CV...
    What has that got to do with anything? When we are negotiating with a market almost 10 times our size we are not going to be able to dictate terms to them however brilliant the CV of the negotiator
    Bilge. I've completed plenty of satisfactory deals with megacorps that had a market cap 500 or 1,000 times larger than mine.
    Ever thought of running for POTUS?
  • HYUFD said:

    85% of Irish freight traffic goes to Britain.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44657460

    No most of it goes through Britain not to Britain at most and that is already regulated by separate international freight laws
    Not if there's chaos at the borders. If Brexit means goods struggle to get through the ports then that affects 85% of Irish freight export.

    Which is why the Irish are desperate to avoid no deal.
  • Are the French planning on holding another fallout 76 larping event next Saturday?
  • glwglw Posts: 5,619
    kle4 said:

    That is your opinion, and I hope you are right, but it is merely an assertion. You seem to believe that the UK has, because of its politics, not stood firm and suffered as a result, yet find it inconceivable that the EU, because of its politics, might stand too firm and suffer as a result.

    All along there's been a strand of Brexiteer thought that secretly the EU's not really committed to the things for which it claims to stand. I do not share this view at all, it's a big part of why I want us to leave, because I take the whole "ever closer union" seriously. I'm sure the EU as an institution doesn't want to harm the UK, or Ireland indirectly, but I don't think we will be able to extract some sort of perfect Brexit by threats. They'll let us pull the trigger if we insist.

  • kle4 said:

    I thought if the EU were going to concede on anything re the initial CHequers plan it would be the Irish backstop rather than, say, the customs stuff that was proposed. So far they haven't, good luck to whoever is PM next week to have another go.

    I fear that since the EU don't want us to leave either (being a net contributor and all) and because they believe Brexit itself (however it happens) to be irrational, they may stick to their guns believing either we will keep the backstop or remain. With our own parliament claiming to not countenance no deal, it would not even be surprising if they think that.

    Agreed that is a risk. Which is why May being replaced with a true leaver is critical.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 50,748
    glw said:

    kle4 said:

    That is your opinion, and I hope you are right, but it is merely an assertion. You seem to believe that the UK has, because of its politics, not stood firm and suffered as a result, yet find it inconceivable that the EU, because of its politics, might stand too firm and suffer as a result.

    All along there's been a strand of Brexiteer thought that secretly the EU's not really committed to the things for which it claims to stand. I do not share this view at all, it's a big part of why I want us to leave, because I take the whole "ever closer union" seriously. I'm sure the EU as an institution doesn't want to harm the UK, or Ireland indirectly, but I don't think we will be able to extract some sort of perfect Brexit by threats. They'll let us pull the trigger if we insist.

    Not least because ultimately they believe we would be hurt more than them by doing such a thing. Given we are clear that we are willing to take some pain for the sake of a principle, why would we think the EU would be unwilling to take less pain (as they believe) for a principle?
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    Scott_P said:

    Small businesses negotiate good terms with bigger businesses all the time. Size isn't everything.

    True.

    We negotiated the best deal with the EU anyone got ever.

    And the Brexiteers torched it.
    A deal so awful that we had to negotiate a rebate mechanism. Even with that rebate mechanism we have been the second largest contributor for most of our period of membership despite been much poorer than many of the other member states. Even now, with the rebate we are not even close to getting more out than we put in. The EU has lost its little piggy bank.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 11,206
    PB Blockquotes crumbling left, right and centre tonight I see - and No Deal crash out is still 16 weeks away!
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    You don’t get a second flip of the coin. We are leaving the EU in March.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 11,206
    notme said:

    Scott_P said:

    Small businesses negotiate good terms with bigger businesses all the time. Size isn't everything.

    True.

    We negotiated the best deal with the EU anyone got ever.

    And the Brexiteers torched it.
    A deal so awful that we had to negotiate a rebate mechanism. Even with that rebate mechanism we have been the second largest contributor for most of our period of membership despite been much poorer than many of the other member states. Even now, with the rebate we are not even close to getting more out than we put in. The EU has lost its little piggy bank.
    You seem to be having a fact bypass there @notme. On what basis was the UK (5th largest GDP in the world) "poorer than many of the other member states"?
  • notme said:

    Scott_P said:

    If the PM had been a Leaver, I doubt they would have got around to appointing their Cabinet by now - and they would be blaming Remainers for the delay.

    I don’t think anyone is promising, just that it is likely. If we are lucky it won’t spiral out of control. Don’t assume that cancelling Brexit would be consequence free. It won’t.
    If Brexit gets cancelled we maintain our right to invoke again starting a new 2 year clock. We lose that right if we exit with the WA and are tied forever into backstop purgatory.

    If Brexit gets cancelled then EUref3 will just be a matter of time. And if that happens then there is no chance it will be negotiated by a Remainer next time.
    If A50 is revokable it is subject to a no mischief clause prohibiting revoking it on the grounds you suggest

    It should be clear tomorrow when the ECJ announce their ruling
    Revoking then immediately reinvoking would be mischief.

    Revoking, years later a sceptic becomes PM, holds a new referendum resulting in a Leave win (again) and then invoking would not be mischief.
    You really think any UK politician will support an EU referendum in a generation. This is your one and only chance and you are losing it
    If Brexit gets pulled by Remainers in Parliament then yes Leavers having won a public vote once absolutely may be willing to do a 'finish the job' referendum.

    I don't care if we lose it. No deal is better than a bad deal and no Brexit is better than a bad Brexit. This is a bad deal and a bad Brexit. Either we fix the deal or scrap Brexit, I'm OK with both options. This will not be the end of the matter though.

    If we don't leave I fully expect us to be inside the tent pissing in for the foreseeable future.
  • notme said:

    Scott_P said:

    Small businesses negotiate good terms with bigger businesses all the time. Size isn't everything.

    True.

    We negotiated the best deal with the EU anyone got ever.

    And the Brexiteers torched it.
    A deal so awful that we had to negotiate a rebate mechanism. Even with that rebate mechanism we have been the second largest contributor for most of our period of membership despite been much poorer than many of the other member states. Even now, with the rebate we are not even close to getting more out than we put in. The EU has lost its little piggy bank.
    You seem to be having a fact bypass there @notme. On what basis was the UK (5th largest GDP in the world) "poorer than many of the other member states"?
    Per capita.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 50,748

    kle4 said:

    I thought if the EU were going to concede on anything re the initial CHequers plan it would be the Irish backstop rather than, say, the customs stuff that was proposed. So far they haven't, good luck to whoever is PM next week to have another go.

    I fear that since the EU don't want us to leave either (being a net contributor and all) and because they believe Brexit itself (however it happens) to be irrational, they may stick to their guns believing either we will keep the backstop or remain. With our own parliament claiming to not countenance no deal, it would not even be surprising if they think that.

    Agreed that is a risk. Which is why May being replaced with a true leaver is critical.
    That is where we diverge - I don't think the Brexit purity of whoever is leader makes a blind bit of difference to whether we can convince the EU or not of something. Part of why they don't believe our threats is because they can see how divided we are, and having someone who believes in leave even to the point of no deal might help with the Tory politics, but it doesn't change the parliamentary arithmetic. If the EU is to both realise we really will leave come what mMay and realise they want that so little they will have to let us unilaterally exit the backstop, it will be because parliament positively rules out any other options. And that will be hard given the strength of the remainer/no deal factions.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    The EU and Ireland might concede a change in language. But who knows? I struggle to follow the logic of so many opponents of the deal, that a change that really affects nothing might satisfy them.

    I suspect something that allows them to save a bit of face when they crumble and vote for the WA is what we are seeking here.
    Something that doesn’t make a backstop seem like serfdom in perpetuity with a more balanced mechanism to end it would mop up a lot of the discontent.
  • kle4 said:

    glw said:

    kle4 said:

    That is your opinion, and I hope you are right, but it is merely an assertion. You seem to believe that the UK has, because of its politics, not stood firm and suffered as a result, yet find it inconceivable that the EU, because of its politics, might stand too firm and suffer as a result.

    All along there's been a strand of Brexiteer thought that secretly the EU's not really committed to the things for which it claims to stand. I do not share this view at all, it's a big part of why I want us to leave, because I take the whole "ever closer union" seriously. I'm sure the EU as an institution doesn't want to harm the UK, or Ireland indirectly, but I don't think we will be able to extract some sort of perfect Brexit by threats. They'll let us pull the trigger if we insist.

    Not least because ultimately they believe we would be hurt more than them by doing such a thing. Given we are clear that we are willing to take some pain for the sake of a principle, why would we think the EU would be unwilling to take less pain (as they believe) for a principle?
    Actually I don't believe the Irish think that which is why they are so desperate to avoid us leaving properly. If they thought us leaving properly made no difference to them they wouldn't be trying to prevent it.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    HYUFD said:

    85% of Irish freight traffic goes to Britain.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44657460

    No most of it goes through Britain not to Britain at most and that is already regulated by separate international freight laws
    The point is that if our ports are fucked up because of no-deal, Irish lorries transiting the UK don't magically grow EU wings and flutter off to the continent. They sit on the M20 like everyone else.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 9,224

    notme said:

    Scott_P said:

    If the PM had been a Leaver, I doubt they would have got around to appointing their Cabinet by now - and they would be blaming Remainers for the delay.

    I don’t think anyone is promising, just that it is likely. If we are lucky it won’t spiral out of control. Don’t assume that cancelling Brexit would be consequence free. It won’t.
    If Brexit gets cancelled we maintain our right to invoke again starting a new 2 year clock. We lose that right if we exit with the WA and are tied forever into backstop purgatory.

    If Brexit gets cancelled then EUref3 will just be a matter of time. And if that happens then there is no chance it will be negotiated by a Remainer next time.
    If A50 is revokable it is subject to a no mischief clause prohibiting revoking it on the grounds you suggest

    It should be clear tomorrow when the ECJ announce their ruling
    Revoking then immediately reinvoking would be mischief.

    Revoking, years later a sceptic becomes PM, holds a new referendum resulting in a Leave win (again) and then invoking would not be mischief.
    You really think any UK politician will support an EU referendum in a generation. This is your one and only chance and you are losing it
    If Brexit gets pulled by Remainers in Parliament then yes Leavers having won a public vote once absolutely may be willing to do a 'finish the job' referendum.

    I don't care if we lose it. No deal is better than a bad deal and no Brexit is better than a bad Brexit. This is a bad deal and a bad Brexit. Either we fix the deal or scrap Brexit, I'm OK with both options. This will not be the end of the matter though.

    If we don't leave I fully expect us to be inside the tent pissing in for the foreseeable future.
    Plus we ask for another vote - and we keep asking
  • glwglw Posts: 5,619
    kle4 said:

    Not least because ultimately they believe we would be hurt more than them by doing such a thing. Given we are clear that we are willing to take some pain for the sake of a principle, why would we think the EU would be unwilling to take less pain (as they believe) for a principle?

    Because they are weak European bluffers, whereas we are staunch British negotiators. Or some load of nonsense like that.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 50,748
    Depends if it is an opening gambit - to keep her own troops at bay (an impossibility I think, but for the sake of argument) she cannot very well suggest deal vs remain, so throw red meat to the Rees-Moggs by suggesting only some variety of leave is possible at least.
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634
    A Deal or No Deal referendum is risky as you might have people voting against the government rather than on the actual issue.

    But at least it doesn't nullify the 2016 result.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    notme said:

    Scott_P said:

    Small businesses negotiate good terms with bigger businesses all the time. Size isn't everything.

    True.

    We negotiated the best deal with the EU anyone got ever.

    And the Brexiteers torched it.
    A deal so awful that we had to negotiate a rebate mechanism. Even with that rebate mechanism we have been the second largest contributor for most of our period of membership despite been much poorer than many of the other member states. Even now, with the rebate we are not even close to getting more out than we put in. The EU has lost its little piggy bank.
    You seem to be having a fact bypass there @notme. On what basis was the UK (5th largest GDP in the world) "poorer than many of the other member states"?
    I was talking in a historical context, before we went through the economic liberalism of the mid 80s and early 90s.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 11,206
    edited December 2018
    notme said:

    The EU and Ireland might concede a change in language. But who knows? I struggle to follow the logic of so many opponents of the deal, that a change that really affects nothing might satisfy them.

    I suspect something that allows them to save a bit of face when they crumble and vote for the WA is what we are seeking here.
    Something that doesn’t make a backstop seem like serfdom in perpetuity with a more balanced mechanism to end it would mop up a lot of the discontent.
    FFS! "serfdom"! Have you fallen through a hole in the cosmic fabric into hyperboleuniverse?
  • notme said:

    Scott_P said:

    If the PM had been a Leaver, I doubt they would have got around to appointing their Cabinet by now - and they would be blaming Remainers for the delay.

    I don’t think anyone is promising, just that it is likely. If we are lucky it won’t spiral out of control. Don’t assume that cancelling Brexit would be consequence free. It won’t.
    If Brexit gets cancelled we maintain our right to invoke again starting a new 2 year clock. We lose that right if we exit with the WA and are tied forever into backstop purgatory.

    If Brexit gets cancelled then EUref3 will just be a matter of time. And if that happens then there is no chance it will be negotiated by a Remainer next time.
    If A50 is revokable it is subject to a no mischief clause prohibiting revoking it on the grounds you suggest

    It should be clear tomorrow when the ECJ announce their ruling
    Revoking then immediately reinvoking would be mischief.

    Revoking, years later a sceptic becomes PM, holds a new referendum resulting in a Leave win (again) and then invoking would not be mischief.
    You really think any UK politician will support an EU referendum in a generation. This is your one and only chance and you are losing it
    If Brexit gets pulled by Remainers in Parliament then yes Leavers having won a public vote once absolutely may be willing to do a 'finish the job' referendum.

    I don't care if we lose it. No deal is better than a bad deal and no Brexit is better than a bad Brexit. This is a bad deal and a bad Brexit. Either we fix the deal or scrap Brexit, I'm OK with both options. This will not be the end of the matter though.

    If we don't leave I fully expect us to be inside the tent pissing in for the foreseeable future.
    I actually agree with your last sentence but would prefer to say we would or could be a very difficult member
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,217
    John_M said:

    HYUFD said:

    85% of Irish freight traffic goes to Britain.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44657460

    No most of it goes through Britain not to Britain at most and that is already regulated by separate international freight laws
    The point is that if our ports are fucked up because of no-deal, Irish lorries transiting the UK don't magically grow EU wings and flutter off to the continent. They sit on the M20 like everyone else.
    Perhaps, but suggesting, even implicitly, that starvation will hit the Irish is perhaps not very historically sensitive.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 65,319

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Who cares about May?! Why are people only seeming to care about this issue based on if it causes May to go or not?! Brexit is more important, the question should be how we get to a resolution, and if that happens to lead to May staying or leaving so be it.
    We get to a resolution by having a PM who can get us to a resolution. That isn't May.
    There is no resolution beyond the Deal May agreed other than No Deal or Remain/BINO.
    Yes there is.

    If you believe there's no possible other negotiations because the other side have said so then you're the most gullible person on earth and I have a bridge to sell to you.
    You persist in your unicorn fantasies then while the rest of us live in the real world, this is the only Deal on offer and the backstop is inescapable, it is this Deal, No Deal or no Brexit at all
    Tell us, what's your background in international negotiations? Because you speak with such certainty, I'd REALLY love to see your CV...
    What has that got to do with anything? When we are negotiating with a market almost 10 times our size we are not going to be able to dictate terms to them however brilliant the CV of the negotiator
    Bilge. I've completed plenty of satisfactory deals with megacorps that had a market cap 500 or 1,000 times larger than mine.
    I notice you use the word 'satisfactory' there not 'great' or 'perfect' ie much like May's Deal then
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited December 2018

    notme said:

    The EU and Ireland might concede a change in language. But who knows? I struggle to follow the logic of so many opponents of the deal, that a change that really affects nothing might satisfy them.

    I suspect something that allows them to save a bit of face when they crumble and vote for the WA is what we are seeking here.
    Something that doesn’t make a backstop seem like serfdom in perpetuity with a more balanced mechanism to end it would mop up a lot of the discontent.
    FFS! "serfdom" - have you fall through a whole in the cosmic fabric into hyperboleuniverse?
    Are you new to the Internet? Everything is monochrome, you know this. Personally I think Brexit will be the most brilliant thing since brilliancium was discovered.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 50,748

    kle4 said:

    glw said:

    kle4 said:

    That is your opinion, and I hope you are right, but it is merely an assertion. You seem to believe that the UK has, because of its politics, not stood firm and suffered as a result, yet find it inconceivable that the EU, because of its politics, might stand too firm and suffer as a result.

    All along there's been a strand of Brexiteer thought that secretly the EU's not really committed to the things for which it claims to stand. I do not share this view at all, it's a big part of why I want us to leave, because I take the whole "ever closer union" seriously. I'm sure the EU as an institution doesn't want to harm the UK, or Ireland indirectly, but I don't think we will be able to extract some sort of perfect Brexit by threats. They'll let us pull the trigger if we insist.

    Not least because ultimately they believe we would be hurt more than them by doing such a thing. Given we are clear that we are willing to take some pain for the sake of a principle, why would we think the EU would be unwilling to take less pain (as they believe) for a principle?
    Actually I don't believe the Irish think that which is why they are so desperate to avoid us leaving properly. If they thought us leaving properly made no difference to them they wouldn't be trying to prevent it.
    The Irish may have encouraged the EU down a path it will find it hard to back down from. They might ensure no deal.
  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    I thought if the EU were going to concede on anything re the initial CHequers plan it would be the Irish backstop rather than, say, the customs stuff that was proposed. So far they haven't, good luck to whoever is PM next week to have another go.

    I fear that since the EU don't want us to leave either (being a net contributor and all) and because they believe Brexit itself (however it happens) to be irrational, they may stick to their guns believing either we will keep the backstop or remain. With our own parliament claiming to not countenance no deal, it would not even be surprising if they think that.

    Agreed that is a risk. Which is why May being replaced with a true leaver is critical.
    That is where we diverge - I don't think the Brexit purity of whoever is leader makes a blind bit of difference to whether we can convince the EU or not of something. Part of why they don't believe our threats is because they can see how divided we are, and having someone who believes in leave even to the point of no deal might help with the Tory politics, but it doesn't change the parliamentary arithmetic. If the EU is to both realise we really will leave come what mMay and realise they want that so little they will have to let us unilaterally exit the backstop, it will be because parliament positively rules out any other options. And that will be hard given the strength of the remainer/no deal factions.
    It does change the Parliamentary arithmetic because Parliament can't force the government to act it can only block what the government is seeking.

    If the government is prepared to wait the clock on no deal then the simple fix is to fix the deal so that the leave-backed government can both agree to the deal and get the deal through Parliament.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 65,319
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    glw said:

    kle4 said:

    That is your opinion, and I hope you are right, but it is merely an assertion. You seem to believe that the UK has, because of its politics, not stood firm and suffered as a result, yet find it inconceivable that the EU, because of its politics, might stand too firm and suffer as a result.

    All along there's been a strand of Brexiteer thought that secretly the EU's not really committed to the things for which it claims to stand. I do not share this view at all, it's a big part of why I want us to leave, because I take the whole "ever closer union" seriously. I'm sure the EU as an institution doesn't want to harm the UK, or Ireland indirectly, but I don't think we will be able to extract some sort of perfect Brexit by threats. They'll let us pull the trigger if we insist.

    Not least because ultimately they believe we would be hurt more than them by doing such a thing. Given we are clear that we are willing to take some pain for the sake of a principle, why would we think the EU would be unwilling to take less pain (as they believe) for a principle?
    Actually I don't believe the Irish think that which is why they are so desperate to avoid us leaving properly. If they thought us leaving properly made no difference to them they wouldn't be trying to prevent it.
    The Irish may have encouraged the EU down a path it will find it hard to back down from. They might ensure no deal.
    They have not, they have offered a Deal, just hardline Brexiteers oppose it but most of the country prefers the Deal to No Deal in the polls
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 9,224

    notme said:

    Scott_P said:

    If the PM had been a Leaver, I doubt they would have got around to appointing their Cabinet by now - and they would be blaming Remainers for the delay.

    I don’t think anyone is promising, just that it is likely. If we are lucky it won’t spiral out of control. Don’t assume that cancelling Brexit would be consequence free. It won’t.
    If Brexit gets cancelled we maintain our right to invoke again starting a new 2 year clock. We lose that right if we exit with the WA and are tied forever into backstop purgatory.

    If Brexit gets cancelled then EUref3 will just be a matter of time. And if that happens then there is no chance it will be negotiated by a Remainer next time.
    If A50 is revokable it is subject to a no mischief clause prohibiting revoking it on the grounds you suggest

    It should be clear tomorrow when the ECJ announce their ruling
    Revoking then immediately reinvoking would be mischief.

    Revoking, years later a sceptic becomes PM, holds a new referendum resulting in a Leave win (again) and then invoking would not be mischief.
    You really think any UK politician will support an EU referendum in a generation. This is your one and only chance and you are losing it
    Excellent, so no second referendum then


    I can live with that.

    Now, about that piss poor planning by our Conservative Government.......
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    matt said:

    John_M said:

    HYUFD said:

    85% of Irish freight traffic goes to Britain.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44657460

    No most of it goes through Britain not to Britain at most and that is already regulated by separate international freight laws
    The point is that if our ports are fucked up because of no-deal, Irish lorries transiting the UK don't magically grow EU wings and flutter off to the continent. They sit on the M20 like everyone else.
    Perhaps, but suggesting, even implicitly, that starvation will hit the Irish is perhaps not very historically sensitive.
    We'll starve before the Irish. I refer you to the various treatises on food security adrift on the web. Poetic justice, perhaps.
  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    glw said:

    kle4 said:

    That is your opinion, and I hope you are right, but it is merely an assertion. You seem to believe that the UK has, because of its politics, not stood firm and suffered as a result, yet find it inconceivable that the EU, because of its politics, might stand too firm and suffer as a result.

    All along there's been a strand of Brexiteer thought that secretly the EU's not really committed to the things for which it claims to stand. I do not share this view at all, it's a big part of why I want us to leave, because I take the whole "ever closer union" seriously. I'm sure the EU as an institution doesn't want to harm the UK, or Ireland indirectly, but I don't think we will be able to extract some sort of perfect Brexit by threats. They'll let us pull the trigger if we insist.

    Not least because ultimately they believe we would be hurt more than them by doing such a thing. Given we are clear that we are willing to take some pain for the sake of a principle, why would we think the EU would be unwilling to take less pain (as they believe) for a principle?
    Actually I don't believe the Irish think that which is why they are so desperate to avoid us leaving properly. If they thought us leaving properly made no difference to them they wouldn't be trying to prevent it.
    The Irish may have encouraged the EU down a path it will find it hard to back down from. They might ensure no deal.
    Why? Why could or would the EU continue down the path if the Irish stare into the abyss and blink? This is only being done in their name.

    The other way to ensure the EU and Irish take us seriously with a leaver in charge is to give the DUP a veto on any agreement. Which works with the Parliamentary arithmetic.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 11,206
    notme said:

    notme said:

    Scott_P said:

    Small businesses negotiate good terms with bigger businesses all the time. Size isn't everything.

    True.

    We negotiated the best deal with the EU anyone got ever.

    And the Brexiteers torched it.
    A deal so awful that we had to negotiate a rebate mechanism. Even with that rebate mechanism we have been the second largest contributor for most of our period of membership despite been much poorer than many of the other member states. Even now, with the rebate we are not even close to getting more out than we put in. The EU has lost its little piggy bank.
    You seem to be having a fact bypass there @notme. On what basis was the UK (5th largest GDP in the world) "poorer than many of the other member states"?
    I was talking in a historical context, before we went through the economic liberalism of the mid 80s and early 90s.
    No. What you said was (my bold):

    "Even with that rebate mechanism we have been the second largest contributor for most of our period of membership despite been much poorer than many of the other member states."

    I appreciate the real facts are a bit inconvenient, but hey, that's the truth for you!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 50,748

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    I thought if the EU were going to concede on anything re the initial CHequers plan it would be the Irish backstop rather than, say, the customs stuff that was proposed. So far they haven't, good luck to whoever is PM next week to have another go.

    I fear that since the EU don't want us to leave either (being a net contributor and all) and because they believe Brexit itself (however it happens) to be irrational, they may stick to their guns believing either we will keep the backstop or remain. With our own parliament claiming to not countenance no deal, it would not even be surprising if they think that.

    Agreed that is a risk. Which is why May being replaced with a true leaver is critical.
    That is where we diverge - I don't think the Brexit purity of whoever is leader makes a blind bit of difference to whether we can convince the EU or not of something. Part of why they don't believe our threats is because they can see how divided we are, and having someone who believes in leave even to the point of no deal might help with the Tory politics, but it doesn't change the parliamentary arithmetic. If the EU is to both realise we really will leave come what mMay and realise they want that so little they will have to let us unilaterally exit the backstop, it will be because parliament positively rules out any other options. And that will be hard given the strength of the remainer/no deal factions.
    It does change the Parliamentary arithmetic because Parliament can't force the government to act it can only block what the government is seeking.

    If the government is prepared to wait the clock on no deal then the simple fix is to fix the deal so that the leave-backed government can both agree to the deal and get the deal through Parliament.
    But the government won't be prepared to do so. There are enough Tories terrified enough to avoid it, not least because most of those opposed to the deal claim to want renegotiation not no deal.
  • HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    glw said:

    kle4 said:

    That is your opinion, and I hope you are right, but it is merely an assertion. You seem to believe that the UK has, because of its politics, not stood firm and suffered as a result, yet find it inconceivable that the EU, because of its politics, might stand too firm and suffer as a result.

    All along there's been a strand of Brexiteer thought that secretly the EU's not really committed to the things for which it claims to stand. I do not share this view at all, it's a big part of why I want us to leave, because I take the whole "ever closer union" seriously. I'm sure the EU as an institution doesn't want to harm the UK, or Ireland indirectly, but I don't think we will be able to extract some sort of perfect Brexit by threats. They'll let us pull the trigger if we insist.

    Not least because ultimately they believe we would be hurt more than them by doing such a thing. Given we are clear that we are willing to take some pain for the sake of a principle, why would we think the EU would be unwilling to take less pain (as they believe) for a principle?
    Actually I don't believe the Irish think that which is why they are so desperate to avoid us leaving properly. If they thought us leaving properly made no difference to them they wouldn't be trying to prevent it.
    The Irish may have encouraged the EU down a path it will find it hard to back down from. They might ensure no deal.
    They have not, they have offered a Deal, just hardline Brexiteers oppose it but most of the country prefers the Deal to No Deal in the polls
    You really love your polls don't you?

    That 10% Remain lead and 20% TM lead really played out so well. When will you learn polls are polls not reality?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 22,536
    Donny43 said:

    A Deal or No Deal referendum is risky as you might have people voting against the government rather than on the actual issue.

    But at least it doesn't nullify the 2016 result.
    It's more pointless than risky. Almost certainly it delivers the deal, but Parliament has the ability to do that now, without the delay, cost, uncertainty and risk of a referendum. Aside from the no dealers, no-one could support it who doesn't already support the deal, and such a vote just gets us back where we are now in some months further down the line
  • notme said:

    notme said:

    Scott_P said:

    Small businesses negotiate good terms with bigger businesses all the time. Size isn't everything.

    True.

    We negotiated the best deal with the EU anyone got ever.

    And the Brexiteers torched it.
    A deal so awful that we had to negotiate a rebate mechanism. Even with that rebate mechanism we have been the second largest contributor for most of our period of membership despite been much poorer than many of the other member states. Even now, with the rebate we are not even close to getting more out than we put in. The EU has lost its little piggy bank.
    You seem to be having a fact bypass there @notme. On what basis was the UK (5th largest GDP in the world) "poorer than many of the other member states"?
    I was talking in a historical context, before we went through the economic liberalism of the mid 80s and early 90s.
    No. What you said was (my bold):

    "Even with that rebate mechanism we have been the second largest contributor for most of our period of membership despite been much poorer than many of the other member states."

    I appreciate the real facts are a bit inconvenient, but hey, that's the truth for you!
    That's true.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,217
    John_M said:

    matt said:

    John_M said:

    HYUFD said:

    85% of Irish freight traffic goes to Britain.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44657460

    No most of it goes through Britain not to Britain at most and that is already regulated by separate international freight laws
    The point is that if our ports are fucked up because of no-deal, Irish lorries transiting the UK don't magically grow EU wings and flutter off to the continent. They sit on the M20 like everyone else.
    Perhaps, but suggesting, even implicitly, that starvation will hit the Irish is perhaps not very historically sensitive.
    We'll starve before the Irish. I refer you to the various treatises on food security adrift on the web. Poetic justice, perhaps.
    Neither will (although given the great KFC chicken crisis I don’t think we’re as stoic as some might suggest). However it’s a touch culturally insensitive.

    Further, Peel did the right thing and look what happened. There’s a analogy there if one hunts hard enough.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 50,748
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    glw said:

    kle4 said:

    That is your opinion, and I hope you are right, but it is merely an assertion. You seem to believe that the UK has, because of its politics, not stood firm and suffered as a result, yet find it inconceivable that the EU, because of its politics, might stand too firm and suffer as a result.

    All along there's been a strand of Brexiteer thought that secretly the EU's not really committed to the things for which it claims to stand. I do not share this view at all, it's a big part of why I want us to leave, because I take the whole "ever closer union" seriously. I'm sure the EU as an institution doesn't want to harm the UK, or Ireland indirectly, but I don't think we will be able to extract some sort of perfect Brexit by threats. They'll let us pull the trigger if we insist.

    Not least because ultimately they believe we would be hurt more than them by doing such a thing. Given we are clear that we are willing to take some pain for the sake of a principle, why would we think the EU would be unwilling to take less pain (as they believe) for a principle?
    Actually I don't believe the Irish think that which is why they are so desperate to avoid us leaving properly. If they thought us leaving properly made no difference to them they wouldn't be trying to prevent it.
    The Irish may have encouraged the EU down a path it will find it hard to back down from. They might ensure no deal.
    They have not, they have offered a Deal, just hardline Brexiteers oppose it but most of the country prefers the Deal to No Deal in the polls
    In this scenario I was not envisaging a referendum, so the views of the public would be irrelevant. The Irish and the EU have played hardball, as is their right. They may have played too hard for their own good, even though it is even more not for our own good to have met that hardball head on, because there is no guarantee once the deal is voted down that we get out of this.

    I do regard no deal as less likely than remain, just because I think MPs on the whole desire the former so much that the not insignificant issues in its path can be overcome, but it is not certain and whether one thinks it was a reasonable demand or not, politically the backstop might sink everything.
  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    I thought if the EU were going to concede on anything re the initial CHequers plan it would be the Irish backstop rather than, say, the customs stuff that was proposed. So far they haven't, good luck to whoever is PM next week to have another go.

    I fear that since the EU don't want us to leave either (being a net contributor and all) and because they believe Brexit itself (however it happens) to be irrational, they may stick to their guns believing either we will keep the backstop or remain. With our own parliament claiming to not countenance no deal, it would not even be surprising if they think that.

    Agreed that is a risk. Which is why May being replaced with a true leaver is critical.
    That is where we diverge - I don't think the Brexit purity of whoever is leader makes a blind bit of difference to whether we can convince the EU or not of something. Part of why they don't believe our threats is because they can see how divided we are, and having someone who believes in leave even to the point of no deal might help with the Tory politics, but it doesn't change the parliamentary arithmetic. If the EU is to both realise we really will leave come what mMay and realise they want that so little they will have to let us unilaterally exit the backstop, it will be because parliament positively rules out any other options. And that will be hard given the strength of the remainer/no deal factions.
    It does change the Parliamentary arithmetic because Parliament can't force the government to act it can only block what the government is seeking.

    If the government is prepared to wait the clock on no deal then the simple fix is to fix the deal so that the leave-backed government can both agree to the deal and get the deal through Parliament.
    But the government won't be prepared to do so. There are enough Tories terrified enough to avoid it, not least because most of those opposed to the deal claim to want renegotiation not no deal.
    Unless those Tories are prepared to VONC their own government they'll be as impotent as the ERG are now. They'll be able to reject a deal true, but that's not in their interests.
  • I am sorry guys but I don't care which side of the debate you are on (and bear in mind I am reluctantly in favour of the deal), this is just pure genius. Suitable for work and kids if a bit disturbing.


  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 30,004
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Who cares about May?! Why are people only seeming to care about this issue based on if it causes May to go or not?! Brexit is more important, the question should be how we get to a resolution, and if that happens to lead to May staying or leaving so be it.
    We get to a resolution by having a PM who can get us to a resolution. That isn't May.
    There is no resolution beyond the Deal May agreed other than No Deal or Remain/BINO.
    Yes there is.

    If you believe there's no possible other negotiations because the other side have said so then you're the most gullible person on earth and I have a bridge to sell to you.
    You persist in your unicorn fantasies then while the rest of us live in the real world, this is the only Deal on offer and the backstop is inescapable, it is this Deal, No Deal or no Brexit at all
    Tell us, what's your background in international negotiations? Because you speak with such certainty, I'd REALLY love to see your CV...
    What has that got to do with anything? When we are negotiating with a market almost 10 times our size we are not going to be able to dictate terms to them however brilliant the CV of the negotiator
    Bilge. I've completed plenty of satisfactory deals with megacorps that had a market cap 500 or 1,000 times larger than mine.
    I notice you use the word 'satisfactory' there not 'great' or 'perfect' ie much like May's Deal then
    My "satisfactory" deals are ones that use the metric of getting approved by the Board/shareholders.

    May's Deal? Not so much.....
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 11,206

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    I thought if the EU were going to concede on anything re the initial CHequers plan it would be the Irish backstop rather than, say, the customs stuff that was proposed. So far they haven't, good luck to whoever is PM next week to have another go.

    I fear that since the EU don't want us to leave either (being a net contributor and all) and because they believe Brexit itself (however it happens) to be irrational, they may stick to their guns believing either we will keep the backstop or remain. With our own parliament claiming to not countenance no deal, it would not even be surprising if they think that.

    Agreed that is a risk. Which is why May being replaced with a true leaver is critical.
    That is where we diverge - I don't think the Brexit purity of whoever is leader makes a blind bit of difference to whether we can convince the EU or not of something. Part of why they don't believe our threats is because they can see how divided we are, and having someone who believes in leave even to the point of no deal might help with the Tory politics, but it doesn't change the parliamentary arithmetic. If the EU is to both realise we really will leave come what mMay and realise they want that so little they will have to let us unilaterally exit the backstop, it will be because parliament positively rules out any other options. And that will be hard given the strength of the remainer/no deal factions.
    It does change the Parliamentary arithmetic because Parliament can't force the government to act it can only block what the government is seeking.

    If the government is prepared to wait the clock on no deal then the simple fix is to fix the deal so that the leave-backed government can both agree to the deal and get the deal through Parliament.
    If we get close to No Deal, enough Tory Remainers will side with Labour and the others to prevent it. If that means bringing the government down, they'll do it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 22,536
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    I thought if the EU were going to concede on anything re the initial CHequers plan it would be the Irish backstop rather than, say, the customs stuff that was proposed. So far they haven't, good luck to whoever is PM next week to have another go.

    I fear that since the EU don't want us to leave either (being a net contributor and all) and because they believe Brexit itself (however it happens) to be irrational, they may stick to their guns believing either we will keep the backstop or remain. With our own parliament claiming to not countenance no deal, it would not even be surprising if they think that.

    Agreed that is a risk. Which is why May being replaced with a true leaver is critical.
    That is where we diverge - I don't think the Brexit purity of whoever is leader makes a blind bit of difference to whether we can convince the EU or not of something. Part of why they don't believe our threats is because they can see how divided we are, and having someone who believes in leave even to the point of no deal might help with the Tory politics, but it doesn't change the parliamentary arithmetic. If the EU is to both realise we really will leave come what mMay and realise they want that so little they will have to let us unilaterally exit the backstop, it will be because parliament positively rules out any other options. And that will be hard given the strength of the remainer/no deal factions.
    And would certainly make it harder to get any sort of majority in Parliament.
  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    I thought if the EU were going to concede on anything re the initial CHequers plan it would be the Irish backstop rather than, say, the customs stuff that was proposed. So far they haven't, good luck to whoever is PM next week to have another go.

    I fear that since the EU don't want us to leave either (being a net contributor and all) and because they believe Brexit itself (however it happens) to be irrational, they may stick to their guns believing either we will keep the backstop or remain. With our own parliament claiming to not countenance no deal, it would not even be surprising if they think that.

    Agreed that is a risk. Which is why May being replaced with a true leaver is critical.
    That is where we diverge - I don't think the Brexit purity of whoever is leader makes a blind bit of difference to whether we can convince the EU or not of something. Part of why they don't believe our threats is because they can see how divided we are, and having someone who believes in leave even to the point of no deal might help with the Tory politics, but it doesn't change the parliamentary arithmetic. If the EU is to both realise we really will leave come what mMay and realise they want that so little they will have to let us unilaterally exit the backstop, it will be because parliament positively rules out any other options. And that will be hard given the strength of the remainer/no deal factions.
    It does change the Parliamentary arithmetic because Parliament can't force the government to act it can only block what the government is seeking.

    If the government is prepared to wait the clock on no deal then the simple fix is to fix the deal so that the leave-backed government can both agree to the deal and get the deal through Parliament.
    If we get close to No Deal, enough Tory Remainers will side with Labour and the others to prevent it. If that means bringing the government down, they'll do it.
    Brave call.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 12,262

    HYUFD said:

    85% of Irish freight traffic goes to Britain.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44657460

    No most of it goes through Britain not to Britain at most and that is already regulated by separate international freight laws
    Not if there's chaos at the borders. If Brexit means goods struggle to get through the ports then that affects 85% of Irish freight export.

    Which is why the Irish are desperate to avoid no deal.
    Ah the Priti Patel approach.

    How could that possibly damage our reputation in the world?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 9,537
    She will win against No Deal. Which is a good reason to go for that option from her PoV. Whether she can get it through parliament is another question.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 30,004
    kle4 said:

    Depends if it is an opening gambit - to keep her own troops at bay (an impossibility I think, but for the sake of argument) she cannot very well suggest deal vs remain, so throw red meat to the Rees-Moggs by suggesting only some variety of leave is possible at least.
    Why make an opening gambit you cannot deliver?
  • Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    85% of Irish freight traffic goes to Britain.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44657460

    No most of it goes through Britain not to Britain at most and that is already regulated by separate international freight laws
    Not if there's chaos at the borders. If Brexit means goods struggle to get through the ports then that affects 85% of Irish freight export.

    Which is why the Irish are desperate to avoid no deal.
    Ah the Priti Patel approach.

    How could that possibly damage our reputation in the world?
    I don't care.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 30,004

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    85% of Irish freight traffic goes to Britain.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44657460

    No most of it goes through Britain not to Britain at most and that is already regulated by separate international freight laws
    Not if there's chaos at the borders. If Brexit means goods struggle to get through the ports then that affects 85% of Irish freight export.

    Which is why the Irish are desperate to avoid no deal.
    Ah the Priti Patel approach.

    How could that possibly damage our reputation in the world?
    I don't care.
    Millwall Brexit! :)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 11,206
    FF43 said:

    She will win against No Deal. Which is a good reason to go for that option from her PoV. Whether she can get it through parliament is another question.
    ... to which the answer is NO.
This discussion has been closed.