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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » TMay’s new strategy – looking over the precipice as the financ

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited December 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » TMay’s new strategy – looking over the precipice as the financial markets collapse

While Mrs May is still in post and the EU are not going to budge on the terms of the deal then it looks as though the two big options remaining are a hard Brexit on March 29th or else a new referendum being announced beforehand.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    0th.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    edited December 2018
    Next. First?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    Third like No Deal
  • Surely one problem for those wanting to force change this way is that the markets have already priced in the risk of this deal being rejected and a possible hard Brexit. Plus the markets will continue to dribble in that direction rather than having a single shocking move.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Why is May so thick that she doesn't see that cracking on preparing for a no deal Brexit would strengthen her hand with the EU ?

    Even if the effect is marginal it's common sense.

  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    edited December 2018
    Can we drop this drivel about "May's really a Remainer" please? Clearly she is going for Brexit come hell or high water, and is hoping that she can just about avoid a crash Brexit if she steers as close to the edge as she can.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    FPT Curse of the new thread:

    After the HoC defeats her Deal, May has to say to the country:

    "You voted Leave, I have negotiated a Deal but Parlaiment won't pass it, so you have to tell them again"

    ...and then offer a No Deal / Deal / Remain referendum.

    Could she get that through the HoC?

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    Can someone post a graph of the 2nd ref betting movement over the past few weeks please?
  • FPT Curse of the new thread:

    After the HoC defeats her Deal, May has to say to the country:

    "You voted Leave, I have negotiated a Deal but Parlaiment won't pass it, so you have to tell them again"

    ...and then offer a No Deal / Deal / Remain referendum.

    Could she get that through the HoC?

    Only if MPs are prepared to take the risk of a No Deal outcome.
    Or in a word 'No'.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    A pre-March crash is surely a lot less likely since the A50 revocation judgement came through.

    Perhaps unfortunate, it might actually have forced the HoC to stop playing silly buggers.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281

    FPT Curse of the new thread:

    After the HoC defeats her Deal, May has to say to the country:

    "You voted Leave, I have negotiated a Deal but Parlaiment won't pass it, so you have to tell them again"

    ...and then offer a No Deal / Deal / Remain referendum.

    Could she get that through the HoC?

    Only if MPs are prepared to take the risk of a No Deal outcome.
    Or in a word 'No'.
    They risk a No Deal outcome through inaction.
  • rpjs said:

    Can we drop this drivel about "May's really a Remainer" please? Clearly she is going for Brexit come hell or high water, and is hoping that she can just about avoid a crash Brexit if she steers as close to the edge as she can.

    Yes, May might have been a lukewarm Remainer at some stage, but then so was Boris.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    edited December 2018

    FPT Curse of the new thread:

    After the HoC defeats her Deal, May has to say to the country:

    "You voted Leave, I have negotiated a Deal but Parlaiment won't pass it, so you have to tell them again"

    ...and then offer a No Deal / Deal / Remain referendum.

    Could she get that through the HoC?

    It's Any old EU Deal/ No Deal isn't it? We've clearly already dismissed Remain
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    FPT Curse of the new thread:

    After the HoC defeats her Deal, May has to say to the country:

    "You voted Leave, I have negotiated a Deal but Parlaiment won't pass it, so you have to tell them again"

    ...and then offer a No Deal / Deal / Remain referendum.

    Could she get that through the HoC?

    No and it's no longer possible to have a referendum (or to be blunt an election) before March 29th rolls around.

    The decision is now in Parliament's hand and they will have to make a decision and probably be forced into making one...
  • Assuming either No Deal or May deal we need to move the argument onto the kind of trade deal we want.

    How frictionless do we want trade with the EU to be and what freedoms are we prepared to give up to get it?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited December 2018
    Scott_P said:
    This is the key couple of paragraphs,
    If the EU wants to ensure its survival, it will have to make far-reaching changes to the way it responds to migration, fights climate change and poverty, manages its security and common currency. For this, it must become easier to govern, easier to understand and more democratic.

    The last thing the EU needs, faced with these huge tasks, is a traumatized U.K. using its power and diplomatic savoir-faire to freeze the EU in its present state. Its painful deadlock over Brexit may be diminishing the U.K.’s standing in Europe, but its diplomatic machine remains a formidable one. The U.K.’s soft power is probably unmatched for a mid-size country.
    Basically, the EU is going to get bigger, more powerful within Europe, demand more money, etc. The UK would continued to be seen as causing this to drag more than necessary, but wouldn't be able to stop it, we wouldn't be remaining to experience the status quo, it would be all aboard the train to ever closer union while still been seen as a passenger who doesn't really want to be onboard.
  • Andrew said:

    A pre-March crash is surely a lot less likely since the A50 revocation judgement came through.

    Perhaps unfortunate, it might actually have forced the HoC to stop playing silly buggers.

    How would you get the law changed if the government don't choose to change it?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    rpjs said:

    Can we drop this drivel about "May's really a Remainer" please? Clearly she is going for Brexit come hell or high water, and is hoping that she can just about avoid a crash Brexit if she steers as close to the edge as she can.

    She keeps ruling out a no deal Brexit - stupidly.

  • XenonXenon Posts: 471
    edited December 2018
    TGOHF said:

    Why is May so thick that she doesn't see that cracking on preparing for a no deal Brexit would strengthen her hand with the EU ?

    Even if the effect is marginal it's common sense.

    Her current course of action it's the only thing she can think of. She is incapable of changing her mind on anything ever.

    Don't blame her, blame the Tories for bottling out of getting rid of her.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited December 2018

    FPT Curse of the new thread:

    After the HoC defeats her Deal, May has to say to the country:

    "You voted Leave, I have negotiated a Deal but Parlaiment won't pass it, so you have to tell them again"

    ...and then offer a No Deal / Deal / Remain referendum.

    Could she get that through the HoC?

    Only if MPs are prepared to take the risk of a No Deal outcome.
    Or in a word 'No'.

    No Deal is the default without a change in the law. It;s not a risk it is an inevitability.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718

    rpjs said:

    Can we drop this drivel about "May's really a Remainer" please? Clearly she is going for Brexit come hell or high water, and is hoping that she can just about avoid a crash Brexit if she steers as close to the edge as she can.

    Yes, May might have been a lukewarm Remainer at some stage, but then so was Boris.
    May changed her mind AFTER the Referendum. Not before. And made at least one pro-Remain during the campaign.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Xenon said:

    TGOHF said:

    Why is May so thick that she doesn't see that cracking on preparing for a no deal Brexit would strengthen her hand with the EU ?

    Even if the effect is marginal it's common sense.

    Her current course of action it's the only thing she can think of. She is incapable of changing her mind on anything ever.

    Don't blame her, blame the Tories for bottling out of getting rid of her.
    I do.

    It's not too late though - 200 Con MPs can see her offski - rules or not.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    edited December 2018
    May’s deal won’t pass Parliament. When it fails, the Tory problem is how they get rid of May. She won’t resign; she’s not that dignified. Corbyn will launch his VNOC, probably with DUP support, bringing down the Gov and forcing a general election with May still Tory leader. Corbyn will win a majority and by the time this happens we’ll be out of the EU on a no deal basis. May will then resign when all the damage is done claiming to have delivered on her promise to lead the U.K. out of the EU. The Tory Party will then split foisting us with Labour for a very long time.

    There will no second referendum and Parliament won’t revoke A 50.
  • Surely one problem for those wanting to force change this way is that the markets have already priced in the risk of this deal being rejected and a possible hard Brexit. Plus the markets will continue to dribble in that direction rather than having a single shocking move.

    Once we have the certainty of No Deal the markets might even recover somewhat.
  • RobD said:

    0th.

    Naughty.
  • XenonXenon Posts: 471
    TGOHF said:

    Xenon said:

    TGOHF said:

    Why is May so thick that she doesn't see that cracking on preparing for a no deal Brexit would strengthen her hand with the EU ?

    Even if the effect is marginal it's common sense.

    Her current course of action it's the only thing she can think of. She is incapable of changing her mind on anything ever.

    Don't blame her, blame the Tories for bottling out of getting rid of her.
    I do.

    It's not too late though - 200 Con MPs can see her offski - rules or not.
    How?

    I can't see it without the government being brought down first.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    Assuming either No Deal or May deal we need to move the argument onto the kind of trade deal we want.

    How frictionless do we want trade with the EU to be and what freedoms are we prepared to give up to get it?

    You think EU are going to give anything when they have UK dangling on a string , May deal will be worse than No Deal as EU will demand everything before agreeing and only alternative is a permanent limbo. All we are doing is pissing away 39B and setting ourselves up for the worst trade deal in history.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,749
    edited December 2018



    This is the key couple of paragraphs,

    'If the EU wants to ensure its survival, it will have to make far-reaching changes to the way it responds to migration, fights climate change and poverty, manages its security and common currency. For this, it must become easier to govern, easier to understand and more democratic.

    The last thing the EU needs, faced with these huge tasks, is a traumatized U.K. using its power and diplomatic savoir-faire to freeze the EU in its present state. Its painful deadlock over Brexit may be diminishing the U.K.’s standing in Europe, but its diplomatic machine remains a formidable one. The U.K.’s soft power is probably unmatched for a mid-size country.'

    Basically, the EU is going to get bigger, more powerful within Europe, demand more money, etc. The UK would continued to be seen as causing this to drag more than necessary, but wouldn't be able to stop it, we wouldn't be remaining to experience the status quo, it would be all aboard the train to ever closer union while still been seen as a passenger who doesn't really want to be onboard.

    Amazingly that diplomatic savoir-faire has been almost entirely absent during negotiations with the EU. One wonders quite how powerful or even extant it actually is.
  • malcolmg said:

    Assuming either No Deal or May deal we need to move the argument onto the kind of trade deal we want.

    How frictionless do we want trade with the EU to be and what freedoms are we prepared to give up to get it?

    You think EU are going to give anything when they have UK dangling on a string , May deal will be worse than No Deal as EU will demand everything before agreeing and only alternative is a permanent limbo. All we are doing is pissing away 39B and setting ourselves up for the worst trade deal in history.
    +1
  • Scott_P said:
    Are the Scottish Tories also prepared for a second Scotland Independence referendum?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited December 2018
    Scott_P said:
    The Scottish Tories can't declare themselves independent this Parliament.

    If they do they'll have to immediately form a coalition or confidence and supply agreement with the Tories or trigger an early election. Which will make a mockery of any claims of independence.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Scott_P said:
    How's that a U-turn? The first article is just what a journalist thought was going to happen.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Parliament complains bitterly about being ignored by the Executive, yet Parliament is perfectly happy, nay overjoyed, to ignore the electorate. The referendum asked, "Leave or Remain" and "Leave" came the reply, albeit narrowly. But FPTP is the basis of our democratic structure and the margin is immaterial unless specifically stated to be subject to qualification.

    "Leave" was the unconditional decision of the electorate. All of the shenanigans about the electorate not knowing what it was voting for is not just grossly condescending but arrant nonsense – what’s not to know about leaving? The electorate voted for Hard Brexit. Everything happening now is about Remainers trying to get as close to remaining as they can, with actual physical remaining still to go for by whatever means. Ironically, those shenanigans look like they might achieve that which their heart least desires.
  • TGOHF said:

    rpjs said:

    Can we drop this drivel about "May's really a Remainer" please? Clearly she is going for Brexit come hell or high water, and is hoping that she can just about avoid a crash Brexit if she steers as close to the edge as she can.

    She keeps ruling out a no deal Brexit - stupidly.

    It's a ruse.

    May is clearly aiming for a clean Brexit with a WTO deal.

    That's why she keeps saying Bexit means Brexit.
  • Just watching vice news tonight, interviewing a couple of brothers who run a big anti-trump twitter account. Rather ironically they were done for advertising a russsian Ponzi scheme.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084

    Scott_P said:
    This is the key couple of paragraphs,
    If the EU wants to ensure its survival, it will have to make far-reaching changes to the way it responds to migration, fights climate change and poverty, manages its security and common currency. For this, it must become easier to govern, easier to understand and more democratic.

    The last thing the EU needs, faced with these huge tasks, is a traumatized U.K. using its power and diplomatic savoir-faire to freeze the EU in its present state. Its painful deadlock over Brexit may be diminishing the U.K.’s standing in Europe, but its diplomatic machine remains a formidable one. The U.K.’s soft power is probably unmatched for a mid-size country.
    Basically, the EU is going to get bigger, more powerful within Europe, demand more money, etc. The UK would continued to be seen as causing this to drag more than necessary, but wouldn't be able to stop it, we wouldn't be remaining to experience the status quo, it would be all aboard the train to ever closer union while still been seen as a passenger who doesn't really want to be onboard.

    Sounds like a train we'd be wise to be on, to me. Considering the alternative.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    There will be no second referendum with Remain as an option while May is PM.

    I am not even convinced that if a referendum were to be held on deal vs not deal, Parliament would alter no deal to Remain.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084

    May’s deal won’t pass Parliament. When it fails, the Tory problem is how they get rid of May. She won’t resign; she’s not that dignified. Corbyn will launch his VNOC, probably with DUP support, bringing down the Gov and forcing a general election with May still Tory leader. Corbyn will win a majority and by the time this happens we’ll be out of the EU on a no deal basis. May will then resign when all the damage is done claiming to have delivered on her promise to lead the U.K. out of the EU. The Tory Party will then split foisting us with Labour for a very long time.

    There will no second referendum and Parliament won’t revoke A 50.

    DUP will only support if the deal is agreed; you have your sequencing wrong.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    edited December 2018
    IanB2 said:


    Basically, the EU is going to get bigger, more powerful within Europe, demand more money, etc. The UK would continued to be seen as causing this to drag more than necessary, but wouldn't be able to stop it, we wouldn't be remaining to experience the status quo, it would be all aboard the train to ever closer union while still been seen as a passenger who doesn't really want to be onboard.

    Sounds like a train we'd be wise to be on, to me. Considering the alternative.
    A train to being a province ruled by the EU commission? No thanks.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    Surely one problem for those wanting to force change this way is that the markets have already priced in the risk of this deal being rejected and a possible hard Brexit. Plus the markets will continue to dribble in that direction rather than having a single shocking move.

    Once we have the certainty of No Deal the markets might even recover somewhat.
    10/10 for fantasy world.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    RoyalBlue said:

    There will be no second referendum with Remain as an option while May is PM.

    I am not even convinced that if a referendum were to be held on deal vs not deal, Parliament would alter no deal to Remain.

    There won't be a deal no deal referendum, there is absolutely no point, and Parliament would never vote for it.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    edited December 2018

    Scott_P said:
    This is the key couple of paragraphs,
    If the EU wants to ensure its survival, it will have to make far-reaching changes to the way it responds to migration, fights climate change and poverty, manages its security and common currency. For this, it must become easier to govern, easier to understand and more democratic.

    The last thing the EU needs, faced with these huge tasks, is a traumatized U.K. using its power and diplomatic savoir-faire to freeze the EU in its present state. Its painful deadlock over Brexit may be diminishing the U.K.’s standing in Europe, but its diplomatic machine remains a formidable one. The U.K.’s soft power is probably unmatched for a mid-size country.

    Basically, the EU is going to get bigger, more powerful within Europe, demand more money, etc. The UK would continued to be seen as causing this to drag more than necessary, but wouldn't be able to stop it, we wouldn't be remaining to experience the status quo, it would be all aboard the train to ever closer union while still been seen as a passenger who doesn't really want to be onboard.
    This is spot on. I am more and more convinced the EU would very much come to regret keytjng the UK revoke. We will never be comfortable with the direction of travel and all we would be doing is ensuring the same conflict goes on for decades, ruining UK politics and paralyzing the EU in terms of its ability to deal with inevitable crisis.
  • M. Juncker doing his bit for Leave, again... there seems to be no way (or will) to remove him:
    https://twitter.com/Jeremyaudouard/status/1073512051870445569
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,547
    eek said:

    FPT Curse of the new thread:

    After the HoC defeats her Deal, May has to say to the country:

    "You voted Leave, I have negotiated a Deal but Parlaiment won't pass it, so you have to tell them again"

    ...and then offer a No Deal / Deal / Remain referendum.

    Could she get that through the HoC?

    No and it's no longer possible to have a referendum (or to be blunt an election) before March 29th rolls around.

    The decision is now in Parliament's hand and they will have to make a decision and probably be forced into making one...
    Yes, so the sequence of events could well Be that parliament revokes A50 before a second referendum rather than after.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:


    Basically, the EU is going to get bigger, more powerful within Europe, demand more money, etc. The UK would continued to be seen as causing this to drag more than necessary, but wouldn't be able to stop it, we wouldn't be remaining to experience the status quo, it would be all aboard the train to ever closer union while still been seen as a passenger who doesn't really want to be onboard.

    Sounds like a train we'd be wise to be on, to me. Considering the alternative.
    A train to being a province ruled by the EU commission? No thanks.
    Better than waiting until British builders and plumbers are travelling to Poland looking for work. Anyhow you don't even live here?
  • IanB2 said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    There will be no second referendum with Remain as an option while May is PM.

    I am not even convinced that if a referendum were to be held on deal vs not deal, Parliament would alter no deal to Remain.

    There won't be a deal no deal referendum, there is absolutely no point, and Parliament would never vote for it.
    That was the only point of having one. Remain have already lost one referendum the result of which hasn’t been honoured yet. Still, it’s moot. There won’t be one and shouldn’t be one until we are out.
  • M. Juncker doing his bit for Leave, again... there seems to be no way (or will) to remove him:
    twitter.com/Jeremyaudouard/status/1073512051870445569

    Difficult to blame that on a bad back....
  • M. Juncker doing his bit for Leave, again... there seems to be no way (or will) to remove him:
    https://twitter.com/Jeremyaudouard/status/1073512051870445569

    You don't need to remove him because he's not running again, but if he was the way to remove him would be to vote for the group of a different spitzenkandidat.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084

    TGOHF said:

    rpjs said:

    Can we drop this drivel about "May's really a Remainer" please? Clearly she is going for Brexit come hell or high water, and is hoping that she can just about avoid a crash Brexit if she steers as close to the edge as she can.

    She keeps ruling out a no deal Brexit - stupidly.

    It's a ruse.

    May is clearly aiming for a clean Brexit with a WTO deal.

    That's why she keeps saying Bexit means Brexit.
    "Brexit means Brexit" implies "... and nothing more". She's been telling us that BINO is the most sensible option from the beginning.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    IanB2 said:

    May’s deal won’t pass Parliament. When it fails, the Tory problem is how they get rid of May. She won’t resign; she’s not that dignified. Corbyn will launch his VNOC, probably with DUP support, bringing down the Gov and forcing a general election with May still Tory leader. Corbyn will win a majority and by the time this happens we’ll be out of the EU on a no deal basis. May will then resign when all the damage is done claiming to have delivered on her promise to lead the U.K. out of the EU. The Tory Party will then split foisting us with Labour for a very long time.

    There will no second referendum and Parliament won’t revoke A 50.

    DUP will only support if the deal is agreed; you have your sequencing wrong.
    I agree. I think May's deal is the only thing that would motivate the DUP to vote for anything which benefited Corbyn
  • Scott_P said:
    The Scottish Tories can't declare themselves independent this Parliament.

    If they do they'll have to immediately form a coalition or confidence and supply agreement with the Tories or trigger an early election. Which will make a mockery of any claims of independence.
    I would have thought a confidence and supply arrangement would suit them nicely. No one accuses the DUP of not being independent.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    edited December 2018
    TGOHF said:

    Why is May so thick that she doesn't see that cracking on preparing for a no deal Brexit would strengthen her hand with the EU ?

    Even if the effect is marginal it's common sense.

    It has been common sense since we served the Article 50 notice. Those who vetoed using it really have much to answer for.

    So it is now coming down to a game of chicken - will Remainers blink and support her deal before 29th March?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959

    M. Juncker doing his bit for Leave, again... there seems to be no way (or will) to remove him:
    https://twitter.com/Jeremyaudouard/status/1073512051870445569

    The Clown Prince of Luxmbourg....
  • IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    This is the key couple of paragraphs,
    If the EU wants to ensure its survival, it will have to make far-reaching changes to the way it responds to migration, fights climate change and poverty, manages its security and common currency. For this, it must become easier to govern, easier to understand and more democratic.

    The last thing the EU needs, faced with these huge tasks, is a traumatized U.K. using its power and diplomatic savoir-faire to freeze the EU in its present state. Its painful deadlock over Brexit may be diminishing the U.K.’s standing in Europe, but its diplomatic machine remains a formidable one. The U.K.’s soft power is probably unmatched for a mid-size country.

    Basically, the EU is going to get bigger, more powerful within Europe, demand more money, etc. The UK would continued to be seen as causing this to drag more than necessary, but wouldn't be able to stop it, we wouldn't be remaining to experience the status quo, it would be all aboard the train to ever closer union while still been seen as a passenger who doesn't really want to be onboard.
    Sounds like a train we'd be wise to be on, to me. Considering the alternative.
    So you are in favour of a single European state
  • M. Juncker doing his bit for Leave, again... there seems to be no way (or will) to remove him:
    https://twitter.com/Jeremyaudouard/status/1073512051870445569

    You don't need to remove him because he's not running again, but if he was the way to remove him would be to vote for the group of a different spitzenkandidat.
    The fact that he may be standing down in the future isn't a case for having left him in place for so long, is it? And most European citizens do not vote on the basis trans-national groupings or indeed their spitzenkandidats. Indeed most of them don't vote at all.
  • Donald Trump knew he was doing wrong when he directed hush money to be paid to two women during the 2016 election, his former lawyer and fixer has said.

    “He directed me to make the payments. He directed me to become involved in these matters,” Michael Cohen, who was sentenced to three years in prison this week over crimes committed while working for Trump, told ABC News in an interview aired on Friday.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084

    Surely one problem for those wanting to force change this way is that the markets have already priced in the risk of this deal being rejected and a possible hard Brexit. Plus the markets will continue to dribble in that direction rather than having a single shocking move.

    Once we have the certainty of No Deal the markets might even recover somewhat.
    Certainly my £/$ trade is underwater at the moment, although I have offset the damage by topping up on the dips and selling on the peaks. But I still maintain that in the long run you can't lose by buying £s at $1.25. Although the fruitcakes in the Tory Party are doing their best to prove me wrong.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    edited December 2018
    matt said:

    Surely one problem for those wanting to force change this way is that the markets have already priced in the risk of this deal being rejected and a possible hard Brexit. Plus the markets will continue to dribble in that direction rather than having a single shocking move.

    Once we have the certainty of No Deal the markets might even recover somewhat.
    10/10 for fantasy world.
    No deal could create a mighty crash, but the fundamentals are there along with pent up demand. A bounce back is not unlikely at all.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    This is the key couple of paragraphs,
    If the EU wants to ensure its survival, it will have to make far-reaching changes to the way it responds to migration, fights climate change and poverty, manages its security and common currency. For this, it must become easier to govern, easier to understand and more democratic.

    The last thing the EU needs, faced with these huge tasks, is a traumatized U.K. using its power and diplomatic savoir-faire to freeze the EU in its present state. Its painful deadlock over Brexit may be diminishing the U.K.’s standing in Europe, but its diplomatic machine remains a formidable one. The U.K.’s soft power is probably unmatched for a mid-size country.

    Basically, the EU is going to get bigger, more powerful within Europe, demand more money, etc. The UK would continued to be seen as causing this to drag more than necessary, but wouldn't be able to stop it, we wouldn't be remaining to experience the status quo, it would be all aboard the train to ever closer union while still been seen as a passenger who doesn't really want to be onboard.
    Sounds like a train we'd be wise to be on, to me. Considering the alternative.
    So you are in favour of a single European state
    Better than being some poorer outlying province beyond the fringes of Europe; as an archaeologist isn't your job digging up the remains of when we were last such?
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    TGOHF said:

    Why is May so thick that she doesn't see that cracking on preparing for a no deal Brexit would strengthen her hand with the EU ?

    Even if the effect is marginal it's common sense.

    It has been common sense since we served the Article 50 notice. Those who vetoed using it really have much to answer for.

    So it is now coming down to a game of chicken - will Remainers blink and support her deal before 29th March?
    Can you blink with your eyes shut?
  • Mr. Cide, I did wonder if more Remainers might have backed axing May in the recent vote, but it seems they chose not to.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    This is the key couple of paragraphs,
    If the EU wants to ensure its survival, it will have to make far-reaching changes to the way it responds to migration, fights climate change and poverty, manages its security and common currency. For this, it must become easier to govern, easier to understand and more democratic.

    The last thing the EU needs, faced with these huge tasks, is a traumatized U.K. using its power and diplomatic savoir-faire to freeze the EU in its present state. Its painful deadlock over Brexit may be diminishing the U.K.’s standing in Europe, but its diplomatic machine remains a formidable one. The U.K.’s soft power is probably unmatched for a mid-size country.

    Basically, the EU is going to get bigger, more powerful within Europe, demand more money, etc. The UK would continued to be seen as causing this to drag more than necessary, but wouldn't be able to stop it, we wouldn't be remaining to experience the status quo, it would be all aboard the train to ever closer union while still been seen as a passenger who doesn't really want to be onboard.
    Sounds like a train we'd be wise to be on, to me. Considering the alternative.
    So you are in favour of a single European state
    Better than being some poorer outlying province beyond the fringes of Europe; as an archaeologist isn't your job digging up the remains of when we were last such?
    Didn't do too badly after that though...
  • M. Juncker doing his bit for Leave, again... there seems to be no way (or will) to remove him:
    https://twitter.com/Jeremyaudouard/status/1073512051870445569

    You don't need to remove him because he's not running again, but if he was the way to remove him would be to vote for the group of a different spitzenkandidat.
    The fact that he may be standing down in the future isn't a case for having left him in place for so long, is it? And most European citizens do not vote on the basis trans-national groupings or indeed their spitzenkandidats. Indeed most of them don't vote at all.
    It's a normal term in office, they're normally five years... I mean, if his commission was doing something terrible or corrupt then the EP would move on him like they did with Santer, but he's just doing his job in a way right-wing British people don't like (not like they ever liked any of them) and being drunker than the average politician.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    notme said:

    matt said:

    Surely one problem for those wanting to force change this way is that the markets have already priced in the risk of this deal being rejected and a possible hard Brexit. Plus the markets will continue to dribble in that direction rather than having a single shocking move.

    Once we have the certainty of No Deal the markets might even recover somewhat.
    10/10 for fantasy world.
    No deal could create a might crash, but the fundamentals are there along with pent up demand. A bounce back is not unlikely at all.
    "might crash" - I agree, as a possibility
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    IanB2 said:

    Surely one problem for those wanting to force change this way is that the markets have already priced in the risk of this deal being rejected and a possible hard Brexit. Plus the markets will continue to dribble in that direction rather than having a single shocking move.

    Once we have the certainty of No Deal the markets might even recover somewhat.
    Certainly my £/$ trade is underwater at the moment, although I have offset the damage by topping up on the dips and selling on the peaks. But I still maintain that in the long run you can't lose by buying £s at $1.25. Although the fruitcakes in the Tory Party are doing their best to prove me wrong.
    How do you effect such a trade without paying the huge rake. I assume you haven't popped into Travel Supermarket and bought 100 100 dollar bills...
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    IanB2 said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    There will be no second referendum with Remain as an option while May is PM.

    I am not even convinced that if a referendum were to be held on deal vs not deal, Parliament would alter no deal to Remain.

    There won't be a deal no deal referendum, there is absolutely no point, and Parliament would never vote for it.
    Why not?

    No-one can stop the Government from introducing such a bill. On a 3-line whip, I would expect no more than 10 Tory MPs to support a Remain amendment. I would expect at least 20 Labour MPs to abstain or vote against a Remain amendment. Therefore, it will pass.

    Arguments about the Electoral Commission guidance etc are not fundamental roadblocks. They can all be overridden in the Act to legislate for the referendum.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Mr. Cide, I did wonder if more Remainers might have backed axing May in the recent vote, but it seems they chose not to.

    Are you mischievously provoking another debate on why voters voted as they did?
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311
    edited December 2018
    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    This is the key couple of paragraphs,
    If the EU wants to ensure its survival, it will have to make far-reaching changes to the way it responds to migration, fights climate change and poverty, manages its security and common currency. For this, it must become easier to govern, easier to understand and more democratic.

    The last thing the EU needs, faced with these huge tasks, is a traumatized U.K. using its power and diplomatic savoir-faire to freeze the EU in its present state. Its painful deadlock over Brexit may be diminishing the U.K.’s standing in Europe, but its diplomatic machine remains a formidable one. The U.K.’s soft power is probably unmatched for a mid-size country.

    Basically, the EU is going to get bigger, more powerful within Europe, demand more money, etc. The UK would continued to be seen as causing this to drag more than necessary, but wouldn't be able to stop it, we wouldn't be remaining to experience the status quo, it would be all aboard the train to ever closer union while still been seen as a passenger who doesn't really want to be onboard.
    Sounds like a train we'd be wise to be on, to me. Considering the alternative.
    The key remain issue in a referendum will be where the EU is going, released from U.K. shackles it is already indicating it wants to go further than before - will that actually work though? There are significant disruptive forces acting against in Europe. As the Gilet Jaune movement has shown rioting is a successful negotiating method with an overbearing power
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    Scott_P said:
    This is the key couple of paragraphs,
    If the EU wants to ensure its survival, it will have to make far-reaching changes to the way it responds to migration, fights climate change and poverty, manages its security and common currency. For this, it must become easier to govern, easier to understand and more democratic.

    The last thing the EU needs, faced with these huge tasks, is a traumatized U.K. using its power and diplomatic savoir-faire to freeze the EU in its present state. Its painful deadlock over Brexit may be diminishing the U.K.’s standing in Europe, but its diplomatic machine remains a formidable one. The U.K.’s soft power is probably unmatched for a mid-size country.

    Basically, the EU is going to get bigger, more powerful within Europe, demand more money, etc. The UK would continued to be seen as causing this to drag more than necessary, but wouldn't be able to stop it, we wouldn't be remaining to experience the status quo, it would be all aboard the train to ever closer union while still been seen as a passenger who doesn't really want to be onboard.
    This is spot on. I am more and more convinced the EU would very much come to regret keytjng the UK revoke. We will never be comfortable with the direction of travel and all we would be doing is ensuring the same conflict goes on for decades, ruining UK politics and paralyzing the EU in terms of its ability to deal with inevitable crisis.
    I believe that's why some federalists like Andrew Duff think the EU is better off without the UK.

    The awkward squad now includes Poland, Hungary, and Italy, perhaps Austria, and perhaps France in the future. The UK would be another member.
  • IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    This is the key couple of paragraphs,
    If the EU wants to ensure its survival, it will have to make far-reaching changes to the way it responds to migration, fights climate change and poverty, manages its security and common currency. For this, it must become easier to govern, easier to understand and more democratic.

    The last thing the EU needs, faced with these huge tasks, is a traumatized U.K. using its power and diplomatic savoir-faire to freeze the EU in its present state. Its painful deadlock over Brexit may be diminishing the U.K.’s standing in Europe, but its diplomatic machine remains a formidable one. The U.K.’s soft power is probably unmatched for a mid-size country.
    Basically, the EU is going to get bigger, more powerful within Europe, demand more money, etc. The UK would continued to be seen as causing this to drag more than necessary, but wouldn't be able to stop it, we wouldn't be remaining to experience the status quo, it would be all aboard the train to ever closer union while still been seen as a passenger who doesn't really want to be onboard.
    Sounds like a train we'd be wise to be on, to me. Considering the alternative.
    The key remain issue in a referendum will be where the EU is going, released from U.K. shackles it is already indicating it wants to go further than before - will that actually work though? There are significant disruptive forces acting against in Europe. As the Gilet Jaune movement has shown rioting is a successful negotiating method with an overbearing power

    In France it did, but in Greece it made no difference.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,793
    FPT (as invariably happens when I type out a long reply):
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:
    What is it with the EU demanding that countries vote until they give the right answer?
    God, I'm sick of this bollocks from the Brexiteers.

    If we were in a situation where there had been no effort made to enact the referendum result, it was still a short time since then, and there was any prospect of one side holding a third, fourth, fifth, or whatever number referendum until the "right" result was achieved, I'd be sympathetic.

    None of those is true.

    It's been longer than the interval between the last two General Elections, all we've seemed to do since 2016 has been bloody Brexiting (ignoring the paranoia about May deliberately intending to derail Brexit and implicitly being willing to sacrifice the Conservative Party to do so), and if a referendum results in "Sign the Deal", it's damned well over. Once the Withdrawal Agreement is signed, we cease to be an EU member.

    So what's the route to "voting until we give the right answer" if the Deal wins? If the Deal wins, It's over and out

    The Leavers can make a decent case - and I'd be sympathetic to a four-way referendum after the Deal is signed, to be honest, as well - but this line that implies that a win for the Deal would still be ignored afterwards is such steaming dogshite that it damages the case.

    If we have a referendum on the result, it'd be a good three years after the original one, with all the work being completed, but it looks pretty shitty compared to all the promises thanks to the campaign being such as to be seemingly designed to win the battle while losing the war, due to promising so much mutually inconsistent stuff (well done, Dominic Cummings - you've poisoned your own well, and it looks very much to me like we're going to leave the EU while the people overall actually want us to stay in, damaged us economically for the long term, and divided the country in such a way that we still can't see a prospect of it healing. And he thinks he's some kind of genius?). The vote wasn't ignored, it was never ignored, it was never going to be ignored, and we'll be reaping the crop from it whatever happens for bloody ages.

    I've tried to be as objective as possible (seeing that I was originally pro-Leave before the campaign, it's actually still a default position for me), but I'm sick and tired of tripe like this coming up.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    RoyalBlue said:

    IanB2 said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    There will be no second referendum with Remain as an option while May is PM.

    I am not even convinced that if a referendum were to be held on deal vs not deal, Parliament would alter no deal to Remain.

    There won't be a deal no deal referendum, there is absolutely no point, and Parliament would never vote for it.
    Why not?

    No-one can stop the Government from introducing such a bill. On a 3-line whip, I would expect no more than 10 Tory MPs to support a Remain amendment. I would expect at least 20 Labour MPs to abstain or vote against a Remain amendment. Therefore, it will pass.

    Arguments about the Electoral Commission guidance etc are not fundamental roadblocks. They can all be overridden in the Act to legislate for the referendum.
    Any MP (excluding the ERG fruitloops) that thinks it a sensible proposition can just as well vote for May's deal, saving us all from the uncertainty, delay, and potential turmoil of another referendum campaign, which nobody really wants. The only argument for another public vote is that it is the only way to overturn the previous one.
  • Xenon said:

    TGOHF said:

    Xenon said:

    TGOHF said:

    Why is May so thick that she doesn't see that cracking on preparing for a no deal Brexit would strengthen her hand with the EU ?

    Even if the effect is marginal it's common sense.

    Her current course of action it's the only thing she can think of. She is incapable of changing her mind on anything ever.

    Don't blame her, blame the Tories for bottling out of getting rid of her.
    I do.

    It's not too late though - 200 Con MPs can see her offski - rules or not.
    How?

    I can't see it without the government being brought down first.
    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1073577680744910855
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    This is the key couple of paragraphs,
    If the EU wants to ensure its survival, it will have to make far-reaching changes to the way it responds to migration, fights climate change and poverty, manages its security and common currency. For this, it must become easier to govern, easier to understand and more democratic.

    The last thing the EU needs, faced with these huge tasks, is a traumatized U.K. using its power and diplomatic savoir-faire to freeze the EU in its present state. Its painful deadlock over Brexit may be diminishing the U.K.’s standing in Europe, but its diplomatic machine remains a formidable one. The U.K.’s soft power is probably unmatched for a mid-size country.

    Basically, the EU is going to get bigger, more powerful within Europe, demand more money, etc. The UK would continued to be seen as causing this to drag more than necessary, but wouldn't be able to stop it, we wouldn't be remaining to experience the status quo, it would be all aboard the train to ever closer union while still been seen as a passenger who doesn't really want to be onboard.
    Sounds like a train we'd be wise to be on, to me. Considering the alternative.
    So you are in favour of a single European state
    Better than being some poorer outlying province beyond the fringes of Europe; as an archaeologist isn't your job digging up the remains of when we were last such?
    Didn't do too badly after that though...
    If you are prepared to wait fifteen or twenty generations from now, I guess.
  • Xenon said:

    TGOHF said:

    Xenon said:

    TGOHF said:

    Why is May so thick that she doesn't see that cracking on preparing for a no deal Brexit would strengthen her hand with the EU ?

    Even if the effect is marginal it's common sense.

    Her current course of action it's the only thing she can think of. She is incapable of changing her mind on anything ever.

    Don't blame her, blame the Tories for bottling out of getting rid of her.
    I do.

    It's not too late though - 200 Con MPs can see her offski - rules or not.
    How?

    I can't see it without the government being brought down first.
    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1073577680744910855
    I rarely say this but 'I told you so'
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    This is the key couple of paragraphs,
    If the EU wants to ensure its survival, it will have to make far-reaching changes to the way it responds to migration, fights climate change and poverty, manages its security and common currency. For this, it must become easier to govern, easier to understand and more democratic.

    The last thing the EU needs, faced with these huge tasks, is a traumatized U.K. using its power and diplomatic savoir-faire to freeze the EU in its present state. Its painful deadlock over Brexit may be diminishing the U.K.’s standing in Europe, but its diplomatic machine remains a formidable one. The U.K.’s soft power is probably unmatched for a mid-size country.
    Basically, the EU is going to get bigger, more powerful within Europe, demand more money, etc. The UK would continued to be seen as causing this to drag more than necessary, but wouldn't be able to stop it, we wouldn't be remaining to experience the status quo, it would be all aboard the train to ever closer union while still been seen as a passenger who doesn't really want to be onboard.
    Sounds like a train we'd be wise to be on, to me. Considering the alternative.
    The key remain issue in a referendum will be where the EU is going, released from U.K. shackles it is already indicating it wants to go further than before - will that actually work though? There are significant disruptive forces acting against in Europe. As the Gilet Jaune movement has shown rioting is a successful negotiating method with an overbearing power
    In France it did, but in Greece it made no difference.

    It's always a question as to which is the stronger force: politics or economics*.

    * In the long run, it's always economics.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    notme said:

    matt said:

    Surely one problem for those wanting to force change this way is that the markets have already priced in the risk of this deal being rejected and a possible hard Brexit. Plus the markets will continue to dribble in that direction rather than having a single shocking move.

    Once we have the certainty of No Deal the markets might even recover somewhat.
    10/10 for fantasy world.
    No deal could create a mighty crash, but the fundamentals are there along with pent up demand. A bounce back is not unlikely at all.
    Just look at what happened after we left the ERM in 1992.

    It’s quite possible that, following a brief period of adjustment and with the right government in place, no-deal Brexit could be the firing of the starting gun on a decade of economic growth. The EU are absolutely terrified of that happening.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084

    Xenon said:

    TGOHF said:

    Xenon said:

    TGOHF said:

    Why is May so thick that she doesn't see that cracking on preparing for a no deal Brexit would strengthen her hand with the EU ?

    Even if the effect is marginal it's common sense.

    Her current course of action it's the only thing she can think of. She is incapable of changing her mind on anything ever.

    Don't blame her, blame the Tories for bottling out of getting rid of her.
    I do.

    It's not too late though - 200 Con MPs can see her offski - rules or not.
    How?

    I can't see it without the government being brought down first.
    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1073577680744910855
    I rarely say this but 'I told you so'
    And these are the people we are supposed to trust with our country's best interests?
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,547

    Scott_P said:
    This is the key couple of paragraphs,
    If the EU wants to ensure its survival, it will have to make far-reaching changes to the way it responds to migration, fights climate change and poverty, manages its security and common currency. For this, it must become easier to govern, easier to understand and more democratic.

    The last thing the EU needs, faced with these huge tasks, is a traumatized U.K. using its power and diplomatic savoir-faire to freeze the EU in its present state. Its painful deadlock over Brexit may be diminishing the U.K.’s standing in Europe, but its diplomatic machine remains a formidable one. The U.K.’s soft power is probably unmatched for a mid-size country.

    Basically, the EU is going to get bigger, more powerful within Europe, demand more money, etc. The UK would continued to be seen as causing this to drag more than necessary, but wouldn't be able to stop it, we wouldn't be remaining to experience the status quo, it would be all aboard the train to ever closer union while still been seen as a passenger who doesn't really want to be onboard.
    This is spot on. I am more and more convinced the EU would very much come to regret keytjng the UK revoke. We will never be comfortable with the direction of travel and all we would be doing is ensuring the same conflict goes on for decades, ruining UK politics and paralyzing the EU in terms of its ability to deal with inevitable crisis.
    The UK will be much enfeebled diplomatically after it has revoked, though not as enfeebled as it would be outside the EU. It will take many years to rebuild the influence we had before 2016, though I would expect this to be achieved eventually. If the US continues to disappear up its own fundament other EU countries will be relieved that the UK is still on board and will avoid too much triumphalism.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    This is the key couple of paragraphs,
    If the EU wants to ensure its survival, it will have to make far-reaching changes to the way it responds to migration, fights climate change and poverty, manages its security and common currency. For this, it must become easier to govern, easier to understand and more democratic.

    The last thing the EU needs, faced with these huge tasks, is a traumatized U.K. using its power and diplomatic savoir-faire to freeze the EU in its present state. Its painful deadlock over Brexit may be diminishing the U.K.’s standing in Europe, but its diplomatic machine remains a formidable one. The U.K.’s soft power is probably unmatched for a mid-size country.

    Basically, the EU is going to get bigger, more powerful within Europe, demand more money, etc. The UK would continued to be seen as causing this to drag more than necessary, but wouldn't be able to stop it, we wouldn't be remaining to experience the status quo, it would be all aboard the train to ever closer union while still been seen as a passenger who doesn't really want to be onboard.
    Sounds like a train we'd be wise to be on, to me. Considering the alternative.
    The key remain issue in a referendum will be where the EU is going, released from U.K. shackles it is already indicating it wants to go further than before - will that actually work though? There are significant disruptive forces acting against in Europe. As the Gilet Jaune movement has shown rioting is a successful negotiating method with an overbearing power
    The EU is doing better, in terms of longevity, than the last millennial project, and its collapse may be less dramatic, but a whimper is its destiny
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    Sandpit said:

    notme said:

    matt said:

    Surely one problem for those wanting to force change this way is that the markets have already priced in the risk of this deal being rejected and a possible hard Brexit. Plus the markets will continue to dribble in that direction rather than having a single shocking move.

    Once we have the certainty of No Deal the markets might even recover somewhat.
    10/10 for fantasy world.
    No deal could create a mighty crash, but the fundamentals are there along with pent up demand. A bounce back is not unlikely at all.
    Just look at what happened after we left the ERM in 1992.

    It’s quite possible that, following a brief period of adjustment and with the right government in place, no-deal Brexit could be the firing of the starting gun on a decade of economic growth. The EU are absolutely terrified of that happening.
    Do things really look like that from thousands of miles away?
  • Mr. 1000, separating the two can be difficult. Decline in economic prospects followed the Roman Empire's western dissolution, a political change.
  • Scott_P said:
    This is the key couple of paragraphs,
    If the EU wants to ensure its survival, it will have to make far-reaching changes to the way it responds to migration, fights climate change and poverty, manages its security and common currency. For this, it must become easier to govern, easier to understand and more democratic.

    The last thing the EU needs, faced with these huge tasks, is a traumatized U.K. using its power and diplomatic savoir-faire to freeze the EU in its present state. Its painful deadlock over Brexit may be diminishing the U.K.’s standing in Europe, but its diplomatic machine remains a formidable one. The U.K.’s soft power is probably unmatched for a mid-size country.

    Basically, the EU is going to get bigger, more powerful within Europe, demand more money, etc. The UK would continued to be seen as causing this to drag more than necessary, but wouldn't be able to stop it, we wouldn't be remaining to experience the status quo, it would be all aboard the train to ever closer union while still been seen as a passenger who doesn't really want to be onboard.
    This is spot on. I am more and more convinced the EU would very much come to regret keytjng the UK revoke. We will never be comfortable with the direction of travel and all we would be doing is ensuring the same conflict goes on for decades, ruining UK politics and paralyzing the EU in terms of its ability to deal with inevitable crisis.
    The UK will be much enfeebled diplomatically after it has revoked, though not as enfeebled as it would be outside the EU. It will take many years to rebuild the influence we had before 2016, though I would expect this to be achieved eventually. If the US continues to disappear up its own fundament other EU countries will be relieved that the UK is still on board and will avoid too much triumphalism.
    The idea that whilst we were a member we had any influence in what the EU would consider as a positive manner is a joke. We only had the power to disrupt and block. The bottom line is that we have no interest in the EU's aspirations and do not share their goals. As such I would think they would be very pleased to see the back of us.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084

    Scott_P said:
    This is the key couple of paragraphs,
    If the EU wants to ensure its survival, it will have to make far-reaching changes to the way it responds to migration, fights climate change and poverty, manages its security and common currency. For this, it must become easier to govern, easier to understand and more democratic.

    The last thing the EU needs, faced with these huge tasks, is a traumatized U.K. using its power and diplomatic savoir-faire to freeze the EU in its present state. Its painful deadlock over Brexit may be diminishing the U.K.’s standing in Europe, but its diplomatic machine remains a formidable one. The U.K.’s soft power is probably unmatched for a mid-size country.

    Basically, the EU is going to get bigger, more powerful within Europe, demand more money, etc. The UK would continued to be seen as causing this to drag more than necessary, but wouldn't be able to stop it, we wouldn't be remaining to experience the status quo, it would be all aboard the train to ever closer union while still been seen as a passenger who doesn't really want to be onboard.
    This is spot on. I am more and more convinced the EU would very much come to regret keytjng the UK revoke. We will never be comfortable with the direction of travel and all we would be doing is ensuring the same conflict goes on for decades, ruining UK politics and paralyzing the EU in terms of its ability to deal with inevitable crisis.
    The UK will be much enfeebled diplomatically after it has revoked, though not as enfeebled as it would be outside the EU. It will take many years to rebuild the influence we had before 2016, though I would expect this to be achieved eventually. If the US continues to disappear up its own fundament other EU countries will be relieved that the UK is still on board and will avoid too much triumphalism.
    The idea that whilst we were a member we had any influence in what the EU would consider as a positive manner is a joke. We only had the power to disrupt and block. The bottom line is that we have no interest in the EU's aspirations and do not share their goals. As such I would think they would be very pleased to see the back of us.
    In saying that you are simply exhibiting your ignorance.
  • Mr. B2, having a go at someone for being distant from the UK when they'd like to return but can't due to the 'interesting' rules on spouses is below the belt.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    It is beginning to look like the Tories are determined to leap off the cliff and take the rest of us with them.
  • IanB2 said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    IanB2 said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    There will be no second referendum with Remain as an option while May is PM.

    I am not even convinced that if a referendum were to be held on deal vs not deal, Parliament would alter no deal to Remain.

    There won't be a deal no deal referendum, there is absolutely no point, and Parliament would never vote for it.
    Why not?

    No-one can stop the Government from introducing such a bill. On a 3-line whip, I would expect no more than 10 Tory MPs to support a Remain amendment. I would expect at least 20 Labour MPs to abstain or vote against a Remain amendment. Therefore, it will pass.

    Arguments about the Electoral Commission guidance etc are not fundamental roadblocks. They can all be overridden in the Act to legislate for the referendum.
    Any MP (excluding the ERG fruitloops) that thinks it a sensible proposition can just as well vote for May's deal, saving us all from the uncertainty, delay, and potential turmoil of another referendum campaign, which nobody really wants. The only argument for another public vote is that it is the only way to overturn the previous one.
    Indeed. That is the lie that very few will admit to. They are not interested in the people's opinion unless it is to stop Brexit. That has always been the only real reason for a second referendum no matter what its advocates might claim.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084

    Mr. B2, having a go at someone for being distant from the UK when they'd like to return but can't due to the 'interesting' rules on spouses is below the belt.

    I simply asked whether things really looked as he suggests from his vantage point in the Arabian desert. Because they sure don't look that way from here in the UK.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    RoyalBlue said:

    IanB2 said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    There will be no second referendum with Remain as an option while May is PM.

    I am not even convinced that if a referendum were to be held on deal vs not deal, Parliament would alter no deal to Remain.

    There won't be a deal no deal referendum, there is absolutely no point, and Parliament would never vote for it.
    Why not?

    No-one can stop the Government from introducing such a bill. On a 3-line whip, I would expect no more than 10 Tory MPs to support a Remain amendment. I would expect at least 20 Labour MPs to abstain or vote against a Remain amendment. Therefore, it will pass.

    Arguments about the Electoral Commission guidance etc are not fundamental roadblocks. They can all be overridden in the Act to legislate for the referendum.
    A Deal/No Deal referendum can't be detached from green lighting 'no deal' as an option, which half the cabinet won't countenance.
  • OortOort Posts: 96
    edited December 2018

    Parliament complains bitterly about being ignored by the Executive, yet Parliament is perfectly happy, nay overjoyed, to ignore the electorate. The referendum asked, "Leave or Remain" and "Leave" came the reply, albeit narrowly. But FPTP is the basis of our democratic structure and the margin is immaterial unless specifically stated to be subject to qualification.

    "Leave" was the unconditional decision of the electorate. All of the shenanigans about the electorate not knowing what it was voting for is not just grossly condescending but arrant nonsense – what’s not to know about leaving? The electorate voted for Hard Brexit. Everything happening now is about Remainers trying to get as close to remaining as they can, with actual physical remaining still to go for by whatever means. Ironically, those shenanigans look like they might achieve that which their heart least desires.

    It wasn't unconditional by choice. It was unconditional because the question was unconditional. Would you like one of the sweeties I've got in this bag? Oh look, they're special turd sweeties, but you said yes so now you've got to have it. Yes to sweetie means yes to sweetie. You could have said no, so don't blame me.

    But then you say "The electorate voted for Hard Brexit". Nothing like kidding yourself. "What’s not to know about leaving?" A damned lot, even at this stage.



  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    eek said:

    FPT Curse of the new thread:

    After the HoC defeats her Deal, May has to say to the country:

    "You voted Leave, I have negotiated a Deal but Parlaiment won't pass it, so you have to tell them again"

    ...and then offer a No Deal / Deal / Remain referendum.

    Could she get that through the HoC?

    No and it's no longer possible to have a referendum (or to be blunt an election) before March 29th rolls around.

    The decision is now in Parliament's hand and they will have to make a decision and probably be forced into making one...
    Yes, so the sequence of events could well Be that parliament revokes A50 before a second referendum rather than after.
    That would be quite smart on Parliament's part, given that (regardless of the outcome of such a referendum) invoking A50 again would be considered invalid by the EU.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Xenon said:

    TGOHF said:

    Xenon said:

    TGOHF said:

    Why is May so thick that she doesn't see that cracking on preparing for a no deal Brexit would strengthen her hand with the EU ?

    Even if the effect is marginal it's common sense.

    Her current course of action it's the only thing she can think of. She is incapable of changing her mind on anything ever.

    Don't blame her, blame the Tories for bottling out of getting rid of her.
    I do.

    It's not too late though - 200 Con MPs can see her offski - rules or not.
    How?

    I can't see it without the government being brought down first.
    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1073577680744910855
    Owen Patterson chucked in his letter which might have sent it over the top. Brady did a top job of keeping the true number completely confidential so the plotters were somewhat in the dark all along I think
  • OortOort Posts: 96

    Scott_P said:
    This is the key couple of paragraphs,
    If the EU wants to ensure its survival, it will have to make far-reaching changes to the way it responds to migration, fights climate change and poverty, manages its security and common currency. For this, it must become easier to govern, easier to understand and more democratic.

    The last thing the EU needs, faced with these huge tasks, is a traumatized U.K. using its power and diplomatic savoir-faire to freeze the EU in its present state. Its painful deadlock over Brexit may be diminishing the U.K.’s standing in Europe, but its diplomatic machine remains a formidable one. The U.K.’s soft power is probably unmatched for a mid-size country.

    Basically, the EU is going to get bigger, more powerful within Europe, demand more money, etc. The UK would continued to be seen as causing this to drag more than necessary, but wouldn't be able to stop it, we wouldn't be remaining to experience the status quo, it would be all aboard the train to ever closer union while still been seen as a passenger who doesn't really want to be onboard.
    This is spot on. I am more and more convinced the EU would very much come to regret keytjng the UK revoke. We will never be comfortable with the direction of travel and all we would be doing is ensuring the same conflict goes on for decades, ruining UK politics and paralyzing the EU in terms of its ability to deal with inevitable crisis.
    The UK will be much enfeebled diplomatically after it has revoked, though not as enfeebled as it would be outside the EU. It will take many years to rebuild the influence we had before 2016, though I would expect this to be achieved eventually. If the US continues to disappear up its own fundament other EU countries will be relieved that the UK is still on board and will avoid too much triumphalism.
    The idea that whilst we were a member we had any influence in what the EU would consider as a positive manner is a joke. We only had the power to disrupt and block. The bottom line is that we have no interest in the EU's aspirations and do not share their goals. As such I would think they would be very pleased to see the back of us.
    The way you've set up your concepts assumes the EU was always a foreign power, so it is not surprising what conclusions you reach.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084

    IanB2 said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    IanB2 said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    There will be no second referendum with Remain as an option while May is PM.

    I am not even convinced that if a referendum were to be held on deal vs not deal, Parliament would alter no deal to Remain.

    There won't be a deal no deal referendum, there is absolutely no point, and Parliament would never vote for it.
    Why not?

    No-one can stop the Government from introducing such a bill. On a 3-line whip, I would expect no more than 10 Tory MPs to support a Remain amendment. I would expect at least 20 Labour MPs to abstain or vote against a Remain amendment. Therefore, it will pass.

    Arguments about the Electoral Commission guidance etc are not fundamental roadblocks. They can all be overridden in the Act to legislate for the referendum.
    Any MP (excluding the ERG fruitloops) that thinks it a sensible proposition can just as well vote for May's deal, saving us all from the uncertainty, delay, and potential turmoil of another referendum campaign, which nobody really wants. The only argument for another public vote is that it is the only way to overturn the previous one.
    Indeed. That is the lie that very few will admit to. They are not interested in the people's opinion unless it is to stop Brexit. That has always been the only real reason for a second referendum no matter what its advocates might claim.
    It's the other way around. All of the options other than Remain can be decided by Parliament, without the need for another referendum, which has downsides that we all recognise. Only the decision to stick with the deal we currently have requires (in my view) the public to be asked to confirm that the whole sorry saga set in train after the 2016 vote was, in hindsight, a monumental mistake.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited December 2018
    Is it me or does Michael Cohen look like Henry Winkler's older brother?
    https://twitter.com/NPR/status/1073577363256922112
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