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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » No Deal or No government: the pincers close on May

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  • Options
    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    The boycott of another EU ref by Leavers or threatening violence shows they fear they’ll lose the next time .

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    "For the fifth consecutive year, "123456" and "password" are the top two most popular passwords online. New entries on the list include "111111", "sunshine", "princess", "666666", "654321", and "donald" at number 23 . SplashData CEO Morgan Slain discussed the list: "Hackers have great success using celebrity names, terms from pop culture and sports, and simple keyboard patterns to break into accounts online because they know so many people are using those easy-to-remember combinations." "

    https://www.macrumors.com

    I think I see a way to hack Trump's tweeter feed...
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,580
    So when will Farage and his fellow travellers launch their new Gammon Party?

    Which Tories will jump ship to give them a parliamentary presence?
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    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,964
    edited December 2018

    If Brexit was only Eexit will the bookies pay. Just can’t see Scotland going along with a hard brexit. As the UK requires Scottish legislation to join in i see this as a non starter

    It'd be ironic if the price of 'retaining British sovereignty', and keeping Northern Ireland in the union, ends up being the loss of Scotland.
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    So when will Farage and his fellow travellers launch their new Gammon Party?

    Which Tories will jump ship to give them a parliamentary presence?

    Pink will be the party logo colours?
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    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    HYUFD said:

    Daniel Hannan is suggesting boycotting a second vote. Further evidence that the Brexiters are rapidly losing faith in their own project.

    https://twitter.com/talkRADIO/status/1073498099673432064

    Farage though was rallying the troops for any EUref2 at the Leavers rally
    Yes, that is interesting isn't it. The simplest explanation is that he just likes being in the spotlight of course.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754
    nico67 said:

    The boycott of another EU ref by Leavers or threatening violence shows they fear they’ll lose the next time .

    as Rory Stewart pointed out No2 will simply lead to number 3.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,619
    Cyclefree said:

    Thank you for the article.

    This is what Brexit has become:
    - an argument about the survival or not of one MP, Mrs May
    - an argument about the survival or not of one (nominally anyway) party - The Tories
    - an argument about which strategy will help Labour obtain power

    And the interests of the country? Pah! That’s a mere detail.

    Bastards: the lot of them!

    Indeed
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,920

    "For the fifth consecutive year, "123456" and "password" are the top two most popular passwords online. New entries on the list include "111111", "sunshine", "princess", "666666", "654321", and "donald" at number 23 . SplashData CEO Morgan Slain discussed the list: "Hackers have great success using celebrity names, terms from pop culture and sports, and simple keyboard patterns to break into accounts online because they know so many people are using those easy-to-remember combinations." "

    https://www.macrumors.com

    I think I see a way to hack Trump's tweeter feed...

    I was once advised to use Welsh words as a base for passwords.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,903
    Vauxhall sticks out like a sore thumb when you plot referendum vs Labour swing in the GE. The new anti-Tory, anti-Brexit votes that almost universally went to the strongest anti-Tory challenger in every other seat went to the Lib Dems in Vauxhall.

    If any other Labour candidate has run there they'd have at least a 25,000 strong majority, perhaps 30,000.
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    John_M said:

    Daniel Hannan is suggesting boycotting a second vote. Further evidence that the Brexiters are rapidly losing faith in their own project.

    https://twitter.com/talkRADIO/status/1073498099673432064

    Boycotting is pathetic. If you don't vote, you deserve everything that comes your way.
    Yes but it is an effective way to delegitimise a poll. Which you would want to do if you thought you were going to lose but didn't want to have to accept the result.
    I'd piss and whine about it for years on Twitter like the FBPE loons.

    Actually, I'd move on with my life. If we do remain, there can no longer be any illusions that we're not going to be subsumed within a Federal Europe. If that's what the majority want, fair enough, but I'll be terribly sad for my beloved country.

    However, it's important to retain perspective. My most immediate challenge is dealing with complications from my lens replacement surgery; post capsular opacity. That's affecting my life a hell of a lot more than Brexit :). Next year is also decision time on vaginoplasty yea/nay and if yea, what flavour.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,903
    Pulpstar said:

    Vauxhall sticks out like a sore thumb when you plot referendum vs Labour swing in the GE. The new anti-Tory, anti-Brexit votes that almost universally went to the strongest anti-Tory challenger in every other seat went to the Lib Dems in Vauxhall.

    If any other Labour candidate has run there they'd have at least a 25,000 strong majority, perhaps 30,000.

    Of course the 20,250 majority Kate achieved shows quite simply how much of the Labour vote they can take for granted come what may.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,898

    Incidentally, @JosiasJessop , can I ask why you chose your name? As coincidence would have it I’m writing an article on the Wey & Arun Canal at the moment.

    When I first joined PB many moons back, I was rereading Hadfield's biography of William Jessop, one of my heroes. I didn't want to use my real name, and William Jessop sounded a little ordinary, so I chose that of his son instead. Josias is also much of interest for his work (as you say) on canals, and especially on the Cromford and High Peak railway.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Josias_Jessop

    They are intensely fascinating characters, working as great engineers at the critical junction between canals and the first railways (or tramways). Indeed, the C&HPR is essentially a tramway built on canal principles to link two canals.

    If possible, I'd love to read your article on the Wey and Arun - I don't know that much about it, never having walked it. ;)
    I'll PM you a copy when I've finished it. It's a fascinating canal - you'd have thought a direct route from London to the South Coast would be a barnstorming success, but in reality hardly anyone ever used it. But when the restorers finish their work it'll be a slam-dunk for pleasure boating, just as the Kennet & Avon has been. My article's about a journey from London to the coast in 1867 - the first ever account of pleasure-boating on an English canal, and just four years before the canal closed.

    I always thought the C&HPR was a curious beast - as you say, a railway designed by a canal engineer. Keep meaning to head up that way with my bike and ride it...
    Thanks - that sounds interesting.

    I've walked part of the Chichester canal in the past, which was meant to be the southernmost link of the canal to the sea and Portsmouth.

    The odd thing about the C&HPR is that a decade earlier, Josiah Jessop had helped with the Mansfield annd Pinxton railway, which included the lovely Kings Mill viaduct, which can still be visited, and his father the Surrey Iron Railway nearly thirty years earlier. Therefore they both knew about the advantages of railways, and yet on the C&HPR they chose inclined planes - although perhaps that was all they could do with the technology of the time (even Euston had an inclined plane outside it to haul trains up to Camden when it first opened).
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    TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    edited December 2018
    kinabalu said:

    There are a couple of MPs who have seemed very angry with May and mentioned the blackmail of running down the clock. More centrist types who may find good reason to back May even against Corbyn's position. There have also been many comments about the fact May hasn't reached out to any Labour MPs. I can't read people's minds but I suspect she has made a lot of the Labour MPs angry and they feel like they are being blackmailed.

    They have been given every reason to vote against it by May and plenty of encouragement that an option they prefer is available.

    What do you think will happen with Labour then, if it does end up with a choice of ratify the WA or leave with nothing?
    Given the EU has offered to extend article 50 in the case of a referendum and you could assume they would do so if we needed time just to simply revoke it is hard for May to force it down to those 2 options. You can't really take it off the table.

    Combine that with pissed off people and it is easier to imagine them pushing for the alternative than helping out.

    My original thought was that there would be a small number of Labour votes for it but May seems to have done almost everything possible to get the MPs not to vote for it, of all the possible backers in Labour I think people thought it would get about 2 votes from Labour (and neither were certain) when she was originally going to hold the vote.

    To move from that to a large enough number of Labour MPs backing it or abstaining seems unlikely based purely on May making them even more angry by blackmailing them into voting for it with the threat of chaos. I see them just getting more angry as time goes on rather than more willing to vote with May, especially in the numbers the deal needs.

    Unless there is a large backing down of the Tory rebels as well greatly reducing the number of Labour MPs needed.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943

    HYUFD said:

    Daniel Hannan is suggesting boycotting a second vote. Further evidence that the Brexiters are rapidly losing faith in their own project.

    https://twitter.com/talkRADIO/status/1073498099673432064

    Farage though was rallying the troops for any EUref2 at the Leavers rally
    Yes, that is interesting isn't it. The simplest explanation is that he just likes being in the spotlight of course.
    Yes and Farage will be rounding up support for his new 'I cannot believe it's not UKIP' party if Remain won a second referendum
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    BudGBudG Posts: 711
    kinabalu said:

    BudG said:

    I don't disagree with your analysis, but I do think that the can-kicker extraordinaire will extract a little more road down which to kick the can, from the EU. It would cost the EU nothing to give a short extension until the EU elections and they have previously said they would grant such an extension in the case of a GE or referendum. Presumably if they thought that May would use this extension to finally get the WA passed, I am sure they would be amenable.

    For this reason I would advise a saver on an April-June 2019 exit, which is currently available at 7.4 on Betfair

    Thank you. Yes, I guess I can imagine that.

    Hey, you're not the one offering that 7.4 on BF, are you?

    :-)
    Nope, I am the one trying to back at 8 though. :)
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,153

    I don't know if this interview has already been linked to, but this is about the best exchange on Brexit that I have ever heard. If Theresa May had been capable of thinking and acting along the lines Rory Stewart sets out - and if she had had it in her to frame the issues in the way he does - we would not be in this mess now.
    https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1073849674879111168

    That is a very good and thoughtful interview. Rory Stewart is one of the few MPs I have any time for.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,619

    Daniel Hannan is suggesting boycotting a second vote. Further evidence that the Brexiters are rapidly losing faith in their own project.

    https://twitter.com/talkRADIO/status/1073498099673432064

    For logistic reasons I don't think there will be a referendum before the scheduled Brexit-Day. I am also uneasy about any second referendum for previously discussed reasons. However if one is held before the current or a postponed Brexit-Day and Daniel does decide to boycott it, then that would be rather silly of him.
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    Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,814
    There are often arguments about what will happen based on "when you exclude the impossible..."
    The problem is the definition of "impossible" used by each poster is different, and that a good argument can be made for every possible route from here being "impossible".
    It does make it easy to exclude every option other than one's preferred one (which must therefore happen because every other route is impossible), but it doesn't tend to give much real illumination.

    I have no idea what's going to happen. I think anyone who claims they do is talking more out of hope or preference than solid logic.
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,987
    Cyclefree said:

    I don't know if this interview has already been linked to, but this is about the best exchange on Brexit that I have ever heard. If Theresa May had been capable of thinking and acting along the lines Rory Stewart sets out - and if she had had it in her to frame the issues in the way he does - we would not be in this mess now.
    https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1073849674879111168

    That is a very good and thoughtful interview. Rory Stewart is one of the few MPs I have any time for.
    Agreed
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    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    viewcode said:

    Daniel Hannan is suggesting boycotting a second vote. Further evidence that the Brexiters are rapidly losing faith in their own project.

    https://twitter.com/talkRADIO/status/1073498099673432064

    For logistic reasons I don't think there will be a referendum before the scheduled Brexit-Day. I am also uneasy about any second referendum for previously discussed reasons. However if one is held before the current or a postponed Brexit-Day and Daniel does decide to boycott it, then that would be rather silly of him.
    "rather silly" is the executive summary of most of what Daniel Hannan proposes.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,116
    HYUFD said:

    May has only said she will stand down by a 2022 general election not before and she will want a mandate from voters for her Deal too.

    My reading of her commitment is that if the next GE is anything but one forced on the party with virtually no notice then she will resign and allow a new leader to fight it.

    As for a mandate from the voters for her deal, she feels (rightly or wrongly) that she has that already in the 2016 referendum result.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,940

    There are often arguments about what will happen based on "when you exclude the impossible..."
    The problem is the definition of "impossible" used by each poster is different, and that a good argument can be made for every possible route from here being "impossible".
    It does make it easy to exclude every option other than one's preferred one (which must therefore happen because every other route is impossible), but it doesn't tend to give much real illumination.

    I have no idea what's going to happen. I think anyone who claims they do is talking more out of hope or preference than solid logic.

    Well, the only thing which isn't impossible is No Deal on March 29. It is what happens if all else proves impossible. Or at least, politically unfeasible.
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    TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    There are often arguments about what will happen based on "when you exclude the impossible..."
    The problem is the definition of "impossible" used by each poster is different, and that a good argument can be made for every possible route from here being "impossible".
    It does make it easy to exclude every option other than one's preferred one (which must therefore happen because every other route is impossible), but it doesn't tend to give much real illumination.

    I have no idea what's going to happen. I think anyone who claims they do is talking more out of hope or preference than solid logic.

    No deal, the deal and no Brexit are realistic possibilities that could happen.

    Anything who thinks one is an impossibility is probably picking the one they like the least. There are good reasons to argue for and against them all and probably different possibilities of each but all 3 are realistic possibilities.
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    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    Daniel Hannan is suggesting boycotting a second vote. Further evidence that the Brexiters are rapidly losing faith in their own project.

    https://twitter.com/talkRADIO/status/1073498099673432064

    Boycotting is pathetic. If you don't vote, you deserve everything that comes your way.
    Yes but it is an effective way to delegitimise a poll. Which you would want to do if you thought you were going to lose but didn't want to have to accept the result.
    I'd piss and whine about it for years on Twitter like the FBPE loons.

    Actually, I'd move on with my life. If we do remain, there can no longer be any illusions that we're not going to be subsumed within a Federal Europe. If that's what the majority want, fair enough, but I'll be terribly sad for my beloved country.

    However, it's important to retain perspective. My most immediate challenge is dealing with complications from my lens replacement surgery; post capsular opacity. That's affecting my life a hell of a lot more than Brexit :). Next year is also decision time on vaginoplasty yea/nay and if yea, what flavour.
    Well if we had gone ahead with Brexit I would have felt sad for my beloved country that we were sitting on the sidelines while Europe moved on without us. I think we should be ambitious - if the EU is on we've got to be in. We should play our part, make our contribution and share in the benefits.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,619
    edited December 2018
    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    Daniel Hannan is suggesting boycotting a second vote. Further evidence that the Brexiters are rapidly losing faith in their own project.

    https://twitter.com/talkRADIO/status/1073498099673432064

    Boycotting is pathetic. If you don't vote, you deserve everything that comes your way.
    Yes but it is an effective way to delegitimise a poll. Which you would want to do if you thought you were going to lose but didn't want to have to accept the result.
    I'd piss and whine about it for years on Twitter like the FBPE loons.

    Actually, I'd move on with my life. If we do remain, there can no longer be any illusions that we're not going to be subsumed within a Federal Europe. If that's what the majority want, fair enough, but I'll be terribly sad for my beloved country.

    However, it's important to retain perspective. My most immediate challenge is dealing with complications from my lens replacement surgery; post capsular opacity. That's affecting my life a hell of a lot more than Brexit :). Next year is also decision time on vaginoplasty yea/nay and if yea, what flavour.
    I am not sure what questions would be seemly here, and I'd understand if you wish to keep these matters private, but...flavour???
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    viewcode said:

    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    Daniel Hannan is suggesting boycotting a second vote. Further evidence that the Brexiters are rapidly losing faith in their own project.

    https://twitter.com/talkRADIO/status/1073498099673432064

    Boycotting is pathetic. If you don't vote, you deserve everything that comes your way.
    Yes but it is an effective way to delegitimise a poll. Which you would want to do if you thought you were going to lose but didn't want to have to accept the result.
    I'd piss and whine about it for years on Twitter like the FBPE loons.

    Actually, I'd move on with my life. If we do remain, there can no longer be any illusions that we're not going to be subsumed within a Federal Europe. If that's what the majority want, fair enough, but I'll be terribly sad for my beloved country.

    However, it's important to retain perspective. My most immediate challenge is dealing with complications from my lens replacement surgery; post capsular opacity. That's affecting my life a hell of a lot more than Brexit :). Next year is also decision time on vaginoplasty yea/nay and if yea, what flavour.
    I am not sure what questions would be seemly here, and I'd understand if you wish to keep these matters private, but...flavour???
    I'd go with strawberry.
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    Cyclefree said:

    I don't know if this interview has already been linked to, but this is about the best exchange on Brexit that I have ever heard. If Theresa May had been capable of thinking and acting along the lines Rory Stewart sets out - and if she had had it in her to frame the issues in the way he does - we would not be in this mess now.
    https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1073849674879111168

    That is a very good and thoughtful interview. Rory Stewart is one of the few MPs I have any time for.

    God alone knows why Rory isn't in the Cabinet.
  • Options

    There are often arguments about what will happen based on "when you exclude the impossible..."
    The problem is the definition of "impossible" used by each poster is different, and that a good argument can be made for every possible route from here being "impossible".
    It does make it easy to exclude every option other than one's preferred one (which must therefore happen because every other route is impossible), but it doesn't tend to give much real illumination.

    I have no idea what's going to happen. I think anyone who claims they do is talking more out of hope or preference than solid logic.

    No deal, the deal and no Brexit are realistic possibilities that could happen.

    Anything who thinks one is an impossibility is probably picking the one they like the least. There are good reasons to argue for and against them all and probably different possibilities of each but all 3 are realistic possibilities.
    Which is why we might as well get on with a referendum that offers all 3 options.
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    ydoethur said:

    The Conservatives will not revoke Article 50.

    Labour might bounce them into it - I think they have the numbers - but if so, expect a massacre in the North at a subsequent, indeed consecutive, General Election.

    This is why crashout now looks likely.

    Wrong! . Labour voters are not obsessed with Brexit in the way implied by your comment. Other issues would easily override it.
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    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    Daniel Hannan is suggesting boycotting a second vote. Further evidence that the Brexiters are rapidly losing faith in their own project.

    https://twitter.com/talkRADIO/status/1073498099673432064

    Boycotting is pathetic. If you don't vote, you deserve everything that comes your way.
    Yes but it is an effective way to delegitimise a poll. Which you would want to do if you thought you were going to lose but didn't want to have to accept the result.
    I'd piss and whine about it for years on Twitter like the FBPE loons.

    Actually, I'd move on with my life. If we do remain, there can no longer be any illusions that we're not going to be subsumed within a Federal Europe. If that's what the majority want, fair enough, but I'll be terribly sad for my beloved country.

    However, it's important to retain perspective. My most immediate challenge is dealing with complications from my lens replacement surgery; post capsular opacity. That's affecting my life a hell of a lot more than Brexit :). Next year is also decision time on vaginoplasty yea/nay and if yea, what flavour.
    Well if we had gone ahead with Brexit I would have felt sad for my beloved country that we were sitting on the sidelines while Europe moved on without us. I think we should be ambitious - if the EU is on we've got to be in. We should play our part, make our contribution and share in the benefits.
    Why shouldn't we be in the USA? We could be the 51st to 54th states? Why shouldn't Canada be in it is that sad?
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,619

    viewcode said:

    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    Daniel Hannan is suggesting boycotting a second vote. Further evidence that the Brexiters are rapidly losing faith in their own project.

    https://twitter.com/talkRADIO/status/1073498099673432064

    Boycotting is pathetic. If you don't vote, you deserve everything that comes your way.
    Yes but it is an effective way to delegitimise a poll. Which you would want to do if you thought you were going to lose but didn't want to have to accept the result.
    I'd piss and whine about it for years on Twitter like the FBPE loons.

    Actually, I'd move on with my life. If we do remain, there can no longer be any illusions that we're not going to be subsumed within a Federal Europe. If that's what the majority want, fair enough, but I'll be terribly sad for my beloved country.

    However, it's important to retain perspective. My most immediate challenge is dealing with complications from my lens replacement surgery; post capsular opacity. That's affecting my life a hell of a lot more than Brexit :). Next year is also decision time on vaginoplasty yea/nay and if yea, what flavour.
    I am not sure what questions would be seemly here, and I'd understand if you wish to keep these matters private, but...flavour???
    I'd go with strawberry.
    I assumed the phrase wasn't referring to the sensation produced in the mouth, hence the question.
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    justin124 said:

    ydoethur said:

    The Conservatives will not revoke Article 50.

    Labour might bounce them into it - I think they have the numbers - but if so, expect a massacre in the North at a subsequent, indeed consecutive, General Election.

    This is why crashout now looks likely.

    Wrong! . Labour voters are not obsessed with Brexit in the way implied by your comment. Other issues would easily override it.
    justin124 said:

    ydoethur said:

    The Conservatives will not revoke Article 50.

    Labour might bounce them into it - I think they have the numbers - but if so, expect a massacre in the North at a subsequent, indeed consecutive, General Election.

    This is why crashout now looks likely.

    Wrong! . Labour voters are not obsessed with Brexit in the way implied by your comment. Other issues would easily override it.
    They would be punished in leave leaning constituencies and I think you know it.

  • Options
    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    justin124 said:

    ydoethur said:

    The Conservatives will not revoke Article 50.

    Labour might bounce them into it - I think they have the numbers - but if so, expect a massacre in the North at a subsequent, indeed consecutive, General Election.

    This is why crashout now looks likely.

    Wrong! . Labour voters are not obsessed with Brexit in the way implied by your comment. Other issues would easily override it.
    Wrong! . Labour voters are not obsessed with Brexit in the way implied by your comment. Other issues would easily override it.

    Corrected that for you.
  • Options
    TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    There are often arguments about what will happen based on "when you exclude the impossible..."
    The problem is the definition of "impossible" used by each poster is different, and that a good argument can be made for every possible route from here being "impossible".
    It does make it easy to exclude every option other than one's preferred one (which must therefore happen because every other route is impossible), but it doesn't tend to give much real illumination.

    I have no idea what's going to happen. I think anyone who claims they do is talking more out of hope or preference than solid logic.

    No deal, the deal and no Brexit are realistic possibilities that could happen.

    Anything who thinks one is an impossibility is probably picking the one they like the least. There are good reasons to argue for and against them all and probably different possibilities of each but all 3 are realistic possibilities.
    Which is why we might as well get on with a referendum that offers all 3 options.
    If as so many claim it is about the people and considering the inability to agree anything else it does seem one of the fairest ways to find agreement.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095

    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    Daniel Hannan is suggesting boycotting a second vote. Further evidence that the Brexiters are rapidly losing faith in their own project.

    https://twitter.com/talkRADIO/status/1073498099673432064

    Boycotting is pathetic. If you don't vote, you deserve everything that comes your way.
    Yes but it is an effective way to delegitimise a poll. Which you would want to do if you thought you were going to lose but didn't want to have to accept the result.
    I'd piss and whine about it for years on Twitter like the FBPE loons.

    Actually, I'd move on with my life. If we do remain, there can no longer be any illusions that we're not going to be subsumed within a Federal Europe. If that's what the majority want, fair enough, but I'll be terribly sad for my beloved country.

    However, it's important to retain perspective. My most immediate challenge is dealing with complications from my lens replacement surgery; post capsular opacity. That's affecting my life a hell of a lot more than Brexit :). Next year is also decision time on vaginoplasty yea/nay and if yea, what flavour.
    Well if we had gone ahead with Brexit I would have felt sad for my beloved country that we were sitting on the sidelines while Europe moved on without us. I think we should be ambitious - if the EU is on we've got to be in. We should play our part, make our contribution and share in the benefits.
    Why shouldn't we be in the USA? We could be the 51st to 54th states? Why shouldn't Canada be in it is that sad?
    Trading HM the Q for Donald Trump would be a bold call.....
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,222
    dixiedean said:

    There are often arguments about what will happen based on "when you exclude the impossible..."
    The problem is the definition of "impossible" used by each poster is different, and that a good argument can be made for every possible route from here being "impossible".
    It does make it easy to exclude every option other than one's preferred one (which must therefore happen because every other route is impossible), but it doesn't tend to give much real illumination.

    I have no idea what's going to happen. I think anyone who claims they do is talking more out of hope or preference than solid logic.

    Well, the only thing which isn't impossible is No Deal on March 29. It is what happens if all else proves impossible. Or at least, politically unfeasible.
    Almost everything isn't impossible.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,372

    Cyclefree said:

    I don't know if this interview has already been linked to, but this is about the best exchange on Brexit that I have ever heard. If Theresa May had been capable of thinking and acting along the lines Rory Stewart sets out - and if she had had it in her to frame the issues in the way he does - we would not be in this mess now.
    https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1073849674879111168

    That is a very good and thoughtful interview. Rory Stewart is one of the few MPs I have any time for.

    God alone knows why Rory isn't in the Cabinet.
    Look at those who are, and the question answers itself.
  • Options
    Why not run a 2nd vote that is Norway vs No Deal?

    Leavers can't complain that this is a rejection of the previous vote, since both involve leaving the EU. The public can then decide how close a relationship it wants.

    A vote for Norway gives Rory what he wants: a close relationship, but not part of EU, while we sort out what he calls 'our mid-life crisis'. In twenty years time or so, we can rejoin if that's what the public wants (and the EU hasn't collapsed - that's a big 'if' frankly).

    If the public really want 'out' totally and really see FoM as the main issue, then they can vote to leave with No Deal (now knowing far more about what that entails as far as supplies, ports, trade etc ).

    The proviso might be that if it is No Deal, then A50 is extended by a couple of years to allow serious preparations at the ports, supply chains etc etc.

    The electoral commission would also have to run a major information campaign to make sure people knew 'No Deal' does not mean 'stay in, nothing changes', it means utterly out.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,116

    Go and ask them and they will tell you. The mood in the PLP is resolute - the deal is worse than what we have now and they will not vote to make us worse off.

    Nor is TINA relevant as the alternative is rescind A50 and remain. Or postpone it for an election or a referendum. Labour MPs- with growing backing across the House especially now on Tory benches - are confident they can block hard Brexit

    But given that any brexit on Treasury figures (and on common sense) makes us worse off the implication of that position is that Labour will not support anything bar remain. That cannot even with the best will in the world be presented as 'respecting the result of the referendum'. I see it as highly unlikely to happen under JC and co.

    But, look, you might be right. Perhaps we will not be leaving the EU at all. I would not be unhappy with that outcome.

    My question, however, relates to the situation whereby (and please just assume this for the sake of argument) we DO get the Noel Edmonds. So it's a choice, we leave with the WA or we leave without it. It is Deal or No Deal. What happens with Labour then?
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607

    Why not run a 2nd vote that is Norway vs No Deal?

    Leavers can't complain that this is a rejection of the previous vote, since both involve leaving the EU. The public can then decide how close a relationship it wants.

    A vote for Norway gives Rory what he wants: a close relationship, but not part of EU, while we sort out what he calls 'our mid-life crisis'. In twenty years time or so, we can rejoin if that's what the public wants (and the EU hasn't collapsed - that's a big 'if' frankly).

    If the public really want 'out' totally and really see FoM as the main issue, then they can vote to leave with No Deal (now knowing far more about what that entails as far as supplies, ports, trade etc ).

    The proviso might be that if it is No Deal, then A50 is extended by a couple of years to allow serious preparations at the ports, supply chains etc etc.

    The electoral commission would also have to run a major information campaign to make sure people knew 'No Deal' does not mean 'stay in, nothing changes', it means utterly out.

    I'd be up for that vote, though it wouldn't make it through parliament without someone attaching a remain provision which means it will never be introduced.
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited December 2018
    viewcode said:

    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    Daniel Hannan is suggesting boycotting a second vote. Further evidence that the Brexiters are rapidly losing faith in their own project.

    https://twitter.com/talkRADIO/status/1073498099673432064

    Boycotting is pathetic. If you don't vote, you deserve everything that comes your way.
    Yes but it is an effective way to delegitimise a poll. Which you would want to do if you thought you were going to lose but didn't want to have to accept the result.
    I'd piss and whine about it for years on Twitter like the FBPE loons.

    Actually, I'd move on with my life. If we do remain, there can no longer be any illusions that we're not going to be subsumed within a Federal Europe. If that's what the majority want, fair enough, but I'll be terribly sad for my beloved country.

    However, it's important to retain perspective. My most immediate challenge is dealing with complications from my lens replacement surgery; post capsular opacity. That's affecting my life a hell of a lot more than Brexit :). Next year is also decision time on vaginoplasty yea/nay and if yea, what flavour.
    I am not sure what questions would be seemly here, and I'd understand if you wish to keep these matters private, but...flavour???
    I use the term loosely ;).

    As it's well before the lagershed, I shall simply say that (for transwomen) there's one major decision to be made first; polo mint or trebor mint? If polo mint, then where do the bits that surround the hole come from? There are a number of options, which can be further divided into moist/not moist.

    Thus you are enlightened. Whenever you have a polo mint in future, please do think of me fondly:D.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,222
    kinabalu said:

    Go and ask them and they will tell you. The mood in the PLP is resolute - the deal is worse than what we have now and they will not vote to make us worse off.

    Nor is TINA relevant as the alternative is rescind A50 and remain. Or postpone it for an election or a referendum. Labour MPs- with growing backing across the House especially now on Tory benches - are confident they can block hard Brexit

    But given that any brexit on Treasury figures (and on common sense) makes us worse off the implication of that position is that Labour will not support anything bar remain. That cannot even with the best will in the world be presented as 'respecting the result of the referendum'. I see it as highly unlikely to happen under JC and co.

    But, look, you might be right. Perhaps we will not be leaving the EU at all. I would not be unhappy with that outcome.

    My question, however, relates to the situation whereby (and please just assume this for the sake of argument) we DO get the Noel Edmonds. So it's a choice, we leave with the WA or we leave without it. It is Deal or No Deal. What happens with Labour then?
    For some, the Tories having had their best shot at it these past two years and seeing the crisis they are about to launch us towards, which bears no relation to anything promised during the vote, is quite sufficient respect for the referendum.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,372

    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    Daniel Hannan is suggesting boycotting a second vote. Further evidence that the Brexiters are rapidly losing faith in their own project.

    https://twitter.com/talkRADIO/status/1073498099673432064

    Boycotting is pathetic. If you don't vote, you deserve everything that comes your way.
    Yes but it is an effective way to delegitimise a poll. Which you would want to do if you thought you were going to lose but didn't want to have to accept the result.
    I'd piss and whine about it for years on Twitter like the FBPE loons.

    Actually, I'd move on with my life. If we do remain, there can no longer be any illusions that we're not going to be subsumed within a Federal Europe. If that's what the majority want, fair enough, but I'll be terribly sad for my beloved country.

    However, it's important to retain perspective. My most immediate challenge is dealing with complications from my lens replacement surgery; post capsular opacity. That's affecting my life a hell of a lot more than Brexit :). Next year is also decision time on vaginoplasty yea/nay and if yea, what flavour.
    Well if we had gone ahead with Brexit I would have felt sad for my beloved country that we were sitting on the sidelines while Europe moved on without us. I think we should be ambitious - if the EU is on we've got to be in. We should play our part, make our contribution and share in the benefits.
    Why shouldn't we be in the USA? We could be the 51st to 54th states? Why shouldn't Canada be in it is that sad?
    Because they wouldn’t want us.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,619

    Cyclefree said:

    I don't know if this interview has already been linked to, but this is about the best exchange on Brexit that I have ever heard. If Theresa May had been capable of thinking and acting along the lines Rory Stewart sets out - and if she had had it in her to frame the issues in the way he does - we would not be in this mess now.
    https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1073849674879111168

    That is a very good and thoughtful interview. Rory Stewart is one of the few MPs I have any time for.

    God alone knows why Rory isn't in the Cabinet.
    Thoughtful MPs don't prosper. They tend to become people on the sidelines: at best, they become kingmakers or ideologues like Keith Joseph or Daniel Hannan, but rarely in the core. Dull functionaries accede to the Cabinet but rarely further. To achieve power one must cultivate allies and inspire followers, and "analysis paralysis" stands in the way of that. Steve Richards points out that Thatcher was at heart a teacher and that Wilson was energised by heated debate, and I point to Blair's "masochism strategy": one must be willing to engage with the public and move them to your side. Rory does not do that, although his present role as May's Only Cheerleader may be the making of him.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,222

    Why not run a 2nd vote that is Norway vs No Deal?

    Leavers can't complain that this is a rejection of the previous vote, since both involve leaving the EU. The public can then decide how close a relationship it wants.

    A vote for Norway gives Rory what he wants: a close relationship, but not part of EU, while we sort out what he calls 'our mid-life crisis'. In twenty years time or so, we can rejoin if that's what the public wants (and the EU hasn't collapsed - that's a big 'if' frankly).

    If the public really want 'out' totally and really see FoM as the main issue, then they can vote to leave with No Deal (now knowing far more about what that entails as far as supplies, ports, trade etc ).

    The proviso might be that if it is No Deal, then A50 is extended by a couple of years to allow serious preparations at the ports, supply chains etc etc.

    The electoral commission would also have to run a major information campaign to make sure people knew 'No Deal' does not mean 'stay in, nothing changes', it means utterly out.

    No deal won't go to any referendum. Ever.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095

    Nigelb said:

    Bollocks. Strong winds, downpours - and a newly-created leak above the front room bay window has water pouring in.

    Finding a roofer in the week before Christmas. That will be fun. And cheap.

    Been there; it’s no fun.
    You have my sympathy.

    Have you tried your local Facebook page? Our small town’s is an excellent source of such emergency help.
    We have a good plumber who has given us a recommendation of someone he has worked with, thanks. The perils of living in a house high on a hill - the views are great, but we get some rough old weather.

    A friend who lives locally got through four chancers before finding a half-way decent fifth. Thankfully our plumbers contact wasn't any of them. At least the rain has eased off. And it wasn't freezing, so I'm thankful for those mercies.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,020

    Why not run a 2nd vote that is Norway vs No Deal?

    Leavers can't complain that this is a rejection of the previous vote, since both involve leaving the EU. The public can then decide how close a relationship it wants.

    A vote for Norway gives Rory what he wants: a close relationship, but not part of EU, while we sort out what he calls 'our mid-life crisis'. In twenty years time or so, we can rejoin if that's what the public wants (and the EU hasn't collapsed - that's a big 'if' frankly).

    If the public really want 'out' totally and really see FoM as the main issue, then they can vote to leave with No Deal (now knowing far more about what that entails as far as supplies, ports, trade etc ).

    The proviso might be that if it is No Deal, then A50 is extended by a couple of years to allow serious preparations at the ports, supply chains etc etc.

    The electoral commission would also have to run a major information campaign to make sure people knew 'No Deal' does not mean 'stay in, nothing changes', it means utterly out.

    'No Deal' would mean unpredictable chaos, not "utterly out". I don't think the UK would survive as an entity for more than a few months, and after that, everything would be up for grabs again.
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    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,964

    Cyclefree said:

    I don't know if this interview has already been linked to, but this is about the best exchange on Brexit that I have ever heard. If Theresa May had been capable of thinking and acting along the lines Rory Stewart sets out - and if she had had it in her to frame the issues in the way he does - we would not be in this mess now.
    https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1073849674879111168

    That is a very good and thoughtful interview. Rory Stewart is one of the few MPs I have any time for.

    God alone knows why Rory isn't in the Cabinet.
    Too clever.
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    Sorry if anyone's having their lunch.

    https://twitter.com/Simon_Pegg/status/1073923735839662080
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    Cyclefree said:

    I don't know if this interview has already been linked to, but this is about the best exchange on Brexit that I have ever heard. If Theresa May had been capable of thinking and acting along the lines Rory Stewart sets out - and if she had had it in her to frame the issues in the way he does - we would not be in this mess now.
    https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1073849674879111168

    That is a very good and thoughtful interview. Rory Stewart is one of the few MPs I have any time for.
    Allegedly he's a politician, but I hear no promises for free owls, let alone unicorns. What sort of politics is that?!?
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,222

    So when will Farage and his fellow travellers launch their new Gammon Party?

    Which Tories will jump ship to give them a parliamentary presence?

    But we already know that Farage has to be the biggest cheese in any vat of sour milk he jumps into, and won't work happily with a bunch of puffed up ERG'ers in Parliament.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Cyclefree said:

    I don't know if this interview has already been linked to, but this is about the best exchange on Brexit that I have ever heard. If Theresa May had been capable of thinking and acting along the lines Rory Stewart sets out - and if she had had it in her to frame the issues in the way he does - we would not be in this mess now.
    https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1073849674879111168

    That is a very good and thoughtful interview. Rory Stewart is one of the few MPs I have any time for.

    God alone knows why Rory isn't in the Cabinet.
    That was an excellent interview, informative and thought provoking.

  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,619
    John_M said:

    viewcode said:

    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    Daniel Hannan is suggesting boycotting a second vote. Further evidence that the Brexiters are rapidly losing faith in their own project.

    https://twitter.com/talkRADIO/status/1073498099673432064

    Boycotting is pathetic. If you don't vote, you deserve everything that comes your way.
    Yes but it is an effective way to delegitimise a poll. Which you would want to do if you thought you were going to lose but didn't want to have to accept the result.
    I'd piss and whine about it for years on Twitter like the FBPE loons.

    Actually, I'd move on with my life. If we do remain, there can no longer be any illusions that we're not going to be subsumed within a Federal Europe. If that's what the majority want, fair enough, but I'll be terribly sad for my beloved country.

    However, it's important to retain perspective. My most immediate challenge is dealing with complications from my lens replacement surgery; post capsular opacity. That's affecting my life a hell of a lot more than Brexit :). Next year is also decision time on vaginoplasty yea/nay and if yea, what flavour.
    I am not sure what questions would be seemly here, and I'd understand if you wish to keep these matters private, but...flavour???
    I use the term loosely ;).

    As it's well before the lagershed, I shall simply say that (for transwomen) there's one major decision to be made first; polo mint or trebor mint? If polo mint, then where do the bits that surround the hole come from? There are a number of options, which can be further divided into moist/not moist.

    Thus you are enlightened. Whenever you have a polo mint in future, please do think of me fondly:D.
    I understand the difference between "moist" and "not moist", but I had to google "trebor mint" so I am not sure whether I fully understand. However I suspect further description would involve labelled diagrams and hence outside the scope of this board. Good luck with whichever you decide, and with your eyes also.
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    Mr. Me, does he have an engraved obelisk I could examine to learn his policies?
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,222

    HYUFD said:

    At a 'Leave means Leave' rally attended by Kate Hoey, Tim Martin, the DUP's Sammy Wilson and businessman and former Tory Mayoral hopeful Richard Tice Farage says prepare for EUref2.

    Meanwhile a Cabinet Minister proposes Commons votes on a Norway plus Customs Union option and a second EU referendum before the meaningful vote so all options bar No Deal are covered

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46575210

    Out of all the people that Brexit has shown to be absolute roasters, the revelation of Hoey is probably the most dramatic.

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1073658564697309184
    How poor must the LD candidate in Vauxhall have been for her to be returned with a 20,000 majority?
    He was actually pretty good; he works for the FT, as I recall, and did well to get his campaign more publicity than any paper candidate really deserves. It is more a comment on the tribal nature of Labour's vote in Inner London, and the difficulties the LibDems still have with their legacy of having participated in that golden age of rational sober government during 2010-15.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,222
    viewcode said:

    John_M said:

    viewcode said:

    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    Daniel Hannan is suggesting boycotting a second vote. Further evidence that the Brexiters are rapidly losing faith in their own project.

    https://twitter.com/talkRADIO/status/1073498099673432064

    Boycotting is pathetic. If you don't vote, you deserve everything that comes your way.
    Yes but it is an effective way to delegitimise a poll. Which you would want to do if you thought you were going to lose but didn't want to have to accept the result.
    I'd piss and whine about it for years on Twitter like the FBPE loons.

    Actually, I'd move on with my life. If we do remain, there can no longer be any illusions that we're not going to be subsumed within a Federal Europe. If that's what the majority want, fair enough, but I'll be terribly sad for my beloved country.

    However, it's important to retain perspective. My most immediate challenge is dealing with complications from my lens replacement surgery; post capsular opacity. That's affecting my life a hell of a lot more than Brexit :). Next year is also decision time on vaginoplasty yea/nay and if yea, what flavour.
    I am not sure what questions would be seemly here, and I'd understand if you wish to keep these matters private, but...flavour???
    I use the term loosely ;).

    As it's well before the lagershed, I shall simply say that (for transwomen) there's one major decision to be made first; polo mint or trebor mint? If polo mint, then where do the bits that surround the hole come from? There are a number of options, which can be further divided into moist/not moist.

    Thus you are enlightened. Whenever you have a polo mint in future, please do think of me fondly:D.
    I understand the difference between "moist" and "not moist", but I had to google "trebor mint" so I am not sure whether I fully understand. However I suspect further description would involve labelled diagrams and hence outside the scope of this board. Good luck with whichever you decide, and with your eyes also.
    Please, I am eating my lunch.
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    Mr. Me, does he have an engraved obelisk I could examine to learn his policies?

    I think he built an enormous cairn of eternal friendship between England and Scotland, which is superficially as bonkers, but had the benefit of involving others in the folly.

    I don't think any other English politician made as positive an intervention in the IndyRef.
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    Floater said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I don't know if this interview has already been linked to, but this is about the best exchange on Brexit that I have ever heard. If Theresa May had been capable of thinking and acting along the lines Rory Stewart sets out - and if she had had it in her to frame the issues in the way he does - we would not be in this mess now.
    https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1073849674879111168

    That is a very good and thoughtful interview. Rory Stewart is one of the few MPs I have any time for.

    God alone knows why Rory isn't in the Cabinet.
    That was an excellent interview, informative and thought provoking.

    Oh yeh, good point. That's why he's not in May's Cabinet of fools.
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    Mr. Me, a cairn, you say?

    I'm dubious. A really trustworthy man would've established a long barrow.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,920

    Floater said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I don't know if this interview has already been linked to, but this is about the best exchange on Brexit that I have ever heard. If Theresa May had been capable of thinking and acting along the lines Rory Stewart sets out - and if she had had it in her to frame the issues in the way he does - we would not be in this mess now.
    https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1073849674879111168

    That is a very good and thoughtful interview. Rory Stewart is one of the few MPs I have any time for.

    God alone knows why Rory isn't in the Cabinet.
    That was an excellent interview, informative and thought provoking.

    Oh yeh, good point. That's why he's not in May's Cabinet of fools.
    Agree about the interview. Advocates a sensible course of action!
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    "For the fifth consecutive year, "123456" and "password" are the top two most popular passwords online. New entries on the list include "111111", "sunshine", "princess", "666666", "654321", and "donald" at number 23 . SplashData CEO Morgan Slain discussed the list: "Hackers have great success using celebrity names, terms from pop culture and sports, and simple keyboard patterns to break into accounts online because they know so many people are using those easy-to-remember combinations." "

    https://www.macrumors.com

    I think I see a way to hack Trump's tweeter feed...

    I was once advised to use Welsh words as a base for passwords.
    ISTR that the Brits used Welsh (and the Yanks Cherokee) for secret communications in the war
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,898
    viewcode said:

    John_M said:

    viewcode said:

    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    Daniel Hannan is suggesting boycotting a second vote. Further evidence that the Brexiters are rapidly losing faith in their own project.

    https://twitter.com/talkRADIO/status/1073498099673432064

    Boycotting is pathetic. If you don't vote, you deserve everything that comes your way.
    Yes but it is an effective way to delegitimise a poll. Which you would want to do if you thought you were going to lose but didn't want to have to accept the result.
    I'd piss and whine about it for years on Twitter like the FBPE loons.

    Actually, I'd move on with my life. If we do remain, there can no longer be any illusions that we're not going to be subsumed within a Federal Europe. If that's what the majority want, fair enough, but I'll be terribly sad for my beloved country.

    However, it's important to retain perspective. My most immediate challenge is dealing with complications from my lens replacement surgery; post capsular opacity. That's affecting my life a hell of a lot more than Brexit :). Next year is also decision time on vaginoplasty yea/nay and if yea, what flavour.
    I am not sure what questions would be seemly here, and I'd understand if you wish to keep these matters private, but...flavour???
    I use the term loosely ;).

    As it's well before the lagershed, I shall simply say that (for transwomen) there's one major decision to be made first; polo mint or trebor mint? If polo mint, then where do the bits that surround the hole come from? There are a number of options, which can be further divided into moist/not moist.

    Thus you are enlightened. Whenever you have a polo mint in future, please do think of me fondly:D.
    I understand the difference between "moist" and "not moist", but I had to google "trebor mint" so I am not sure whether I fully understand. However I suspect further description would involve labelled diagrams and hence outside the scope of this board. Good luck with whichever you decide, and with your eyes also.
    An old friend of mine at uni was considering such a move, and he asked me to read lots of information on it - both official and support information. It was, to say the least, a revelation. I'm glad to say I've forgotten most of it. ;)

    As I was going through a series of operations at the time, I couldn't understand why anyone would voluntarily go through such a painful procedure. It isn't an easy decision to make, and it can't be an easy thing to go through, either physically or mentally.

    Another old friend of mine went from female to male. Now that is a series of eye-watering ops ...
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    Daniel Hannan is suggesting boycotting a second vote. Further evidence that the Brexiters are rapidly losing faith in their own project.

    https://twitter.com/talkRADIO/status/1073498099673432064

    Boycotting is pathetic. If you don't vote, you deserve everything that comes your way.
    Yes but it is an effective way to delegitimise a poll. Which you would want to do if you thought you were going to lose but didn't want to have to accept the result.
    I'd piss and whine about it for years on Twitter like the FBPE loons.

    Actually, I'd move on with my life. If we do remain, there can no longer be any illusions that we're not going to be subsumed within a Federal Europe. If that's what the majority want, fair enough, but I'll be terribly sad for my beloved country.

    However, it's important to retain perspective. My most immediate challenge is dealing with complications from my lens replacement surgery; post capsular opacity. That's affecting my life a hell of a lot more than Brexit :). Next year is also decision time on vaginoplasty yea/nay and if yea, what flavour.
    BTW was meaning to ask, is it you in your avatar?
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,920
    edited December 2018
    Charles said:

    "For the fifth consecutive year, "123456" and "password" are the top two most popular passwords online. New entries on the list include "111111", "sunshine", "princess", "666666", "654321", and "donald" at number 23 . SplashData CEO Morgan Slain discussed the list: "Hackers have great success using celebrity names, terms from pop culture and sports, and simple keyboard patterns to break into accounts online because they know so many people are using those easy-to-remember combinations." "

    https://www.macrumors.com

    I think I see a way to hack Trump's tweeter feed...

    I was once advised to use Welsh words as a base for passwords.
    ISTR that the Brits used Welsh (and the Yanks Cherokee) for secret communications in the war
    The Welsh Guards used Welsh in Bosnia. There are very few people able to speak both Serbo-Croat and Welsh fluently.

    Didn’t the Yanks use Navajo rather than Cherokee? In the Pacific War.
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    For passwords, just use a long string of words, preferably something that creates a vivid mental image. Entropy is your friend.

    Example 'BorisJohnsonOnaUnicyclePlayingaTrumpet'. Remainers are permitted to subsitute things like 'withAnArrowThroughHisHead' in place of the trumpet bit.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,321

    kinabalu said:

    I can assure you - unfortunately for your betting position - that Labour MPs will not vote for the WA u see any circumstance. The odd loon - Hoey and Stringer- will, almost all the rest won't.

    Reasoning?
    Go and ask them and they will tell you. The mood in the PLP is resolute - the deal is worse than what we have now and they will not vote to make us worse off.

    Nor is TINA relevant as the alternative is rescind A50 and remain. Or postpone it for an election or a referendum. Labour MPs- with growing backing across the House especially now on Tory benches - are confident they can block hard Brexit
    I think that's correct from my contacts. They think the WA is dead anyway, so, brutally speaking, why sacrifice yourself in defence of a corpse? (And Hoey isn't voting for it either.)

    Labour MPs might be tempted by a referendum offer, or something else quite different. But not the WA. Like Justin, I think they are under very little pressure from Labour-voting constituents in general, though some do feel very strongly.

    The argument is incidentally being distorted by the hyperbole of "No Deal=no food or medicine". That won't happen. If we can't reach a deal, a basic WTO arrangement allowing the flow of trade (with tariffs), aircraft flying etc., will be reached while we ponder what to do. The discussion should weigh that up against the deal or any other deal. The option would be extremely unsatisfactory but probably not permanent. The WA in all likelihood would be permanent.

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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Charles said:

    "For the fifth consecutive year, "123456" and "password" are the top two most popular passwords online. New entries on the list include "111111", "sunshine", "princess", "666666", "654321", and "donald" at number 23 . SplashData CEO Morgan Slain discussed the list: "Hackers have great success using celebrity names, terms from pop culture and sports, and simple keyboard patterns to break into accounts online because they know so many people are using those easy-to-remember combinations." "

    https://www.macrumors.com

    I think I see a way to hack Trump's tweeter feed...

    I was once advised to use Welsh words as a base for passwords.
    ISTR that the Brits used Welsh (and the Yanks Cherokee) for secret communications in the war
    Navajo rather than Cherokee I think.
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    viewcode said:

    John_M said:

    viewcode said:

    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    Daniel Hannan is suggesting boycotting a second vote. Further evidence that the Brexiters are rapidly losing faith in their own project.

    https://twitter.com/talkRADIO/status/1073498099673432064

    Boycotting is pathetic. If you don't vote, you deserve everything that comes your way.
    Yes but it is an effective way to delegitimise a poll. Which you would want to do if you thought you were going to lose but didn't want to have to accept the result.
    I'd piss and whine about it for years on Twitter like the FBPE loons.

    Actually, I'd move on with my life. If we do remain, there can no longer be any illusions that we're not going to be subsumed within a Federal Europe. If that's what the majority want, fair enough, but I'll be terribly sad for my beloved country.

    However, it's important to retain perspective. My most immediate challenge is dealing with complications from my lens replacement surgery; post capsular opacity. That's affecting my life a hell of a lot more than Brexit :). Next year is also decision time on vaginoplasty yea/nay and if yea, what flavour.
    I am not sure what questions would be seemly here, and I'd understand if you wish to keep these matters private, but...flavour???
    I use the term loosely ;).

    As it's well before the lagershed, I shall simply say that (for transwomen) there's one major decision to be made first; polo mint or trebor mint? If polo mint, then where do the bits that surround the hole come from? There are a number of options, which can be further divided into moist/not moist.

    Thus you are enlightened. Whenever you have a polo mint in future, please do think of me fondly:D.
    I understand the difference between "moist" and "not moist", but I had to google "trebor mint" so I am not sure whether I fully understand. However I suspect further description would involve labelled diagrams and hence outside the scope of this board. Good luck with whichever you decide, and with your eyes also.
    Thank you.
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Charles said:

    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    Daniel Hannan is suggesting boycotting a second vote. Further evidence that the Brexiters are rapidly losing faith in their own project.

    https://twitter.com/talkRADIO/status/1073498099673432064

    Boycotting is pathetic. If you don't vote, you deserve everything that comes your way.
    Yes but it is an effective way to delegitimise a poll. Which you would want to do if you thought you were going to lose but didn't want to have to accept the result.
    I'd piss and whine about it for years on Twitter like the FBPE loons.

    Actually, I'd move on with my life. If we do remain, there can no longer be any illusions that we're not going to be subsumed within a Federal Europe. If that's what the majority want, fair enough, but I'll be terribly sad for my beloved country.

    However, it's important to retain perspective. My most immediate challenge is dealing with complications from my lens replacement surgery; post capsular opacity. That's affecting my life a hell of a lot more than Brexit :). Next year is also decision time on vaginoplasty yea/nay and if yea, what flavour.
    BTW was meaning to ask, is it you in your avatar?
    Yes it is. Something of a journey over the last few years.
  • Options
    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited December 2018

    Charles said:

    "For the fifth consecutive year, "123456" and "password" are the top two most popular passwords online. New entries on the list include "111111", "sunshine", "princess", "666666", "654321", and "donald" at number 23 . SplashData CEO Morgan Slain discussed the list: "Hackers have great success using celebrity names, terms from pop culture and sports, and simple keyboard patterns to break into accounts online because they know so many people are using those easy-to-remember combinations." "

    https://www.macrumors.com

    I think I see a way to hack Trump's tweeter feed...

    I was once advised to use Welsh words as a base for passwords.
    ISTR that the Brits used Welsh (and the Yanks Cherokee) for secret communications in the war
    The Welsh Guards used Welsh in Bosnia. There are very few people able to speak both Serbo-Croat and Welsh fluently.
    Simply type a short phrase or 5 or 6 words and use that as the password. Anything over 12 or 13 characters is usually safe and any phrase will do. Leave spaces in and capitalise at least one word, but avoid well known quotes or proverbs so "Mary had a little lamb" should be avoided whereas "I like lamb butties" would be fine.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    viewcode said:

    John_M said:

    viewcode said:

    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    Daniel Hannan is suggesting boycotting a second vote. Further evidence that the Brexiters are rapidly losing faith in their own project.

    https://twitter.com/talkRADIO/status/1073498099673432064

    Boycotting is pathetic. If you don't vote, you deserve everything that comes your way.
    Yes but it is an effective way to delegitimise a poll. Which you would want to do if you thought you were going to lose but didn't want to have to accept the result.
    I'd piss and whine about it for years on Twitter like the FBPE loons.

    Actually, I'd move on with my life. If we do remain, there can no longer be any illusions that we're not going to be subsumed within a Federal Europe. If that's what the majority want, fair enough, but I'll be terribly sad for my beloved country.

    However, it's important to retain perspective. My most immediate challenge is dealing with complications from my lens replacement surgery; post capsular opacity. That's affecting my life a hell of a lot more than Brexit :). Next year is also decision time on vaginoplasty yea/nay and if yea, what flavour.
    I am not sure what questions would be seemly here, and I'd understand if you wish to keep these matters private, but...flavour???
    I use the term loosely ;).

    As it's well before the lagershed, I shall simply say that (for transwomen) there's one major decision to be made first; polo mint or trebor mint? If polo mint, then where do the bits that surround the hole come from? There are a number of options, which can be further divided into moist/not moist.

    Thus you are enlightened. Whenever you have a polo mint in future, please do think of me fondly:D.
    I understand the difference between "moist" and "not moist", but I had to google "trebor mint" so I am not sure whether I fully understand. However I suspect further description would involve labelled diagrams and hence outside the scope of this board. Good luck with whichever you decide, and with your eyes also.
    A polo mint is an annulus a Trebor mint is a disc. Use your imagination.
  • Options
    Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,814

    There are often arguments about what will happen based on "when you exclude the impossible..."
    The problem is the definition of "impossible" used by each poster is different, and that a good argument can be made for every possible route from here being "impossible".
    It does make it easy to exclude every option other than one's preferred one (which must therefore happen because every other route is impossible), but it doesn't tend to give much real illumination.

    I have no idea what's going to happen. I think anyone who claims they do is talking more out of hope or preference than solid logic.

    No deal, the deal and no Brexit are realistic possibilities that could happen.

    Anything who thinks one is an impossibility is probably picking the one they like the least. There are good reasons to argue for and against them all and probably different possibilities of each but all 3 are realistic possibilities.
    Oh, I know. We are told that each option is, in turn, impossible.
    We can Brexit with a Deal, we can Brexit with No Deal, we can not Brexit.
    The choice can be made by the politicians in the current House, given to the people in a referendum, or made following a new election.

    By politicians
    The Deal is impossible, as the numbers against it are so huge.
    No Deal is impossible, as no Government would countenance it.
    Revoking A50 is impossible, as the Government would not be willing to face the backlash.

    Referendum
    Going to a referendum itself is impossible as May and the Tories will never accept it.
    Even then, it is impossible to put No Deal on a referendum as the House would never implement it.
    It is impossible that Remain would be on a referendum as it would be suicide for the Tories to allow it there.
    The Deal cannot be on the referendum as it would already have been rejected by the House

    Election
    An election is impossible as the Tories won't go into another one with May at the helm and won't risk losing.
    Even if it wasn't impossible, it wouldn't change the logic - there wouldn't be substantive changes to the Deal, and Labour wouldn't revoke A50, or countenance No Deal.

    Ergo - all routes from here are impossible. There is no "something else" that could turn up, so that route is impossible.

    But one of them will be taken
  • Options
    TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    John_M said:

    Charles said:

    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    Daniel Hannan is suggesting boycotting a second vote. Further evidence that the Brexiters are rapidly losing faith in their own project.

    https://twitter.com/talkRADIO/status/1073498099673432064

    Boycotting is pathetic. If you don't vote, you deserve everything that comes your way.
    Yes but it is an effective way to delegitimise a poll. Which you would want to do if you thought you were going to lose but didn't want to have to accept the result.
    I'd piss and whine about it for years on Twitter like the FBPE loons.

    Actually, I'd move on with my life. If we do remain, there can no longer be any illusions that we're not going to be subsumed within a Federal Europe. If that's what the majority want, fair enough, but I'll be terribly sad for my beloved country.

    However, it's important to retain perspective. My most immediate challenge is dealing with complications from my lens replacement surgery; post capsular opacity. That's affecting my life a hell of a lot more than Brexit :). Next year is also decision time on vaginoplasty yea/nay and if yea, what flavour.
    BTW was meaning to ask, is it you in your avatar?
    Yes it is. Something of a journey over the last few years.
    Got to do what makes you happy, hope it all goes well for you!
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    "For the fifth consecutive year, "123456" and "password" are the top two most popular passwords online. New entries on the list include "111111", "sunshine", "princess", "666666", "654321", and "donald" at number 23 . SplashData CEO Morgan Slain discussed the list: "Hackers have great success using celebrity names, terms from pop culture and sports, and simple keyboard patterns to break into accounts online because they know so many people are using those easy-to-remember combinations." "

    https://www.macrumors.com

    I think I see a way to hack Trump's tweeter feed...

    I was once advised to use Welsh words as a base for passwords.
    ISTR that the Brits used Welsh (and the Yanks Cherokee) for secret communications in the war
    The Welsh Guards used Welsh in Bosnia. There are very few people able to speak both Serbo-Croat and Welsh fluently.

    Didn’t the Yanks use Navajo rather than Cherokee? In the Pacific War.
    I know it was a Native American tongue but beyond that not sure
  • Options

    Charles said:

    "For the fifth consecutive year, "123456" and "password" are the top two most popular passwords online. New entries on the list include "111111", "sunshine", "princess", "666666", "654321", and "donald" at number 23 . SplashData CEO Morgan Slain discussed the list: "Hackers have great success using celebrity names, terms from pop culture and sports, and simple keyboard patterns to break into accounts online because they know so many people are using those easy-to-remember combinations." "

    https://www.macrumors.com

    I think I see a way to hack Trump's tweeter feed...

    I was once advised to use Welsh words as a base for passwords.
    ISTR that the Brits used Welsh (and the Yanks Cherokee) for secret communications in the war
    The Welsh Guards used Welsh in Bosnia. There are very few people able to speak both Serbo-Croat and Welsh fluently.

    Didn’t the Yanks use Navajo rather than Cherokee? In the Pacific War.
    Probably both - they used all sorts depending on who was in the unit. Navajo had the advantage in that its got virtually no written tradition and I think was the only one formally introduced.

    Furthermore, in the Navajo case, they used a simple code (nonsense or simple words to represent concepts) alongside the translation. Stuff like turtles for tanks.

    So, at least one Navajo who was not a code talker was used by the Japanese to break the code, but as they didn't know the addition code words, thought it was nonsense. He got quite brutally tortured for his efforts ...
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    John_M said:

    Charles said:

    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    Daniel Hannan is suggesting boycotting a second vote. Further evidence that the Brexiters are rapidly losing faith in their own project.

    https://twitter.com/talkRADIO/status/1073498099673432064

    Boycotting is pathetic. If you don't vote, you deserve everything that comes your way.
    Yes but it is an effective way to delegitimise a poll. Which you would want to do if you thought you were going to lose but didn't want to have to accept the result.
    I'd piss and whine about it for years on Twitter like the FBPE loons.

    Actually, I'd move on with my life. If we do remain, there can no longer be any illusions that we're not going to be subsumed within a Federal Europe. If that's what the majority want, fair enough, but I'll be terribly sad for my beloved country.

    However, it's important to retain perspective. My most immediate challenge is dealing with complications from my lens replacement surgery; post capsular opacity. That's affecting my life a hell of a lot more than Brexit :). Next year is also decision time on vaginoplasty yea/nay and if yea, what flavour.
    BTW was meaning to ask, is it you in your avatar?
    Yes it is. Something of a journey over the last few years.
    The look suits you
  • Options
    Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    "For the fifth consecutive year, "123456" and "password" are the top two most popular passwords online. New entries on the list include "111111", "sunshine", "princess", "666666", "654321", and "donald" at number 23 . SplashData CEO Morgan Slain discussed the list: "Hackers have great success using celebrity names, terms from pop culture and sports, and simple keyboard patterns to break into accounts online because they know so many people are using those easy-to-remember combinations." "

    https://www.macrumors.com

    I think I see a way to hack Trump's tweeter feed...

    I was once advised to use Welsh words as a base for passwords.
    ISTR that the Brits used Welsh (and the Yanks Cherokee) for secret communications in the war
    The Welsh Guards used Welsh in Bosnia. There are very few people able to speak both Serbo-Croat and Welsh fluently.

    Didn’t the Yanks use Navajo rather than Cherokee? In the Pacific War.
    I know it was a Native American tongue but beyond that not sure
    Cherokee in WWI, Navajo in WWII. The latter is much better known, I think.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Code_talker
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    There are often arguments about what will happen based on "when you exclude the impossible..."
    The problem is the definition of "impossible" used by each poster is different, and that a good argument can be made for every possible route from here being "impossible".
    It does make it easy to exclude every option other than one's preferred one (which must therefore happen because every other route is impossible), but it doesn't tend to give much real illumination.

    I have no idea what's going to happen. I think anyone who claims they do is talking more out of hope or preference than solid logic.

    No deal, the deal and no Brexit are realistic possibilities that could happen.

    Anything who thinks one is an impossibility is probably picking the one they like the least. There are good reasons to argue for and against them all and probably different possibilities of each but all 3 are realistic possibilities.
    Oh, I know. We are told that each option is, in turn, impossible.
    We can Brexit with a Deal, we can Brexit with No Deal, we can not Brexit.
    The choice can be made by the politicians in the current House, given to the people in a referendum, or made following a new election.

    By politicians
    The Deal is impossible, as the numbers against it are so huge.
    No Deal is impossible, as no Government would countenance it.
    Revoking A50 is impossible, as the Government would not be willing to face the backlash.

    Referendum
    Going to a referendum itself is impossible as May and the Tories will never accept it.
    Even then, it is impossible to put No Deal on a referendum as the House would never implement it.
    It is impossible that Remain would be on a referendum as it would be suicide for the Tories to allow it there.
    The Deal cannot be on the referendum as it would already have been rejected by the House

    Election
    An election is impossible as the Tories won't go into another one with May at the helm and won't risk losing.
    Even if it wasn't impossible, it wouldn't change the logic - there wouldn't be substantive changes to the Deal, and Labour wouldn't revoke A50, or countenance No Deal.

    Ergo - all routes from here are impossible. There is no "something else" that could turn up, so that route is impossible.

    But one of them will be taken
    The bare bones deal that has been officially denied I suspect
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,222

    There are often arguments about what will happen based on "when you exclude the impossible..."
    The problem is the definition of "impossible" used by each poster is different, and that a good argument can be made for every possible route from here being "impossible".
    It does make it easy to exclude every option other than one's preferred one (which must therefore happen because every other route is impossible), but it doesn't tend to give much real illumination.

    I have no idea what's going to happen. I think anyone who claims they do is talking more out of hope or preference than solid logic.

    No deal, the deal and no Brexit are realistic possibilities that could happen.

    Anything who thinks one is an impossibility is probably picking the one they like the least. There are good reasons to argue for and against them all and probably different possibilities of each but all 3 are realistic possibilities.
    Oh, I know. We are told that each option is, in turn, impossible.
    We can Brexit with a Deal, we can Brexit with No Deal, we can not Brexit.
    The choice can be made by the politicians in the current House, given to the people in a referendum, or made following a new election.

    By politicians
    The Deal is impossible, as the numbers against it are so huge.
    No Deal is impossible, as no Government would countenance it.
    Revoking A50 is impossible, as the Government would not be willing to face the backlash.

    Referendum
    Going to a referendum itself is impossible as May and the Tories will never accept it.
    Even then, it is impossible to put No Deal on a referendum as the House would never implement it.
    It is impossible that Remain would be on a referendum as it would be suicide for the Tories to allow it there.
    The Deal cannot be on the referendum as it would already have been rejected by the House

    Election
    An election is impossible as the Tories won't go into another one with May at the helm and won't risk losing.
    Even if it wasn't impossible, it wouldn't change the logic - there wouldn't be substantive changes to the Deal, and Labour wouldn't revoke A50, or countenance No Deal.

    Ergo - all routes from here are impossible. There is no "something else" that could turn up, so that route is impossible.

    But one of them will be taken
    Unless you haven't thought of everything?
  • Options

    Charles said:

    "For the fifth consecutive year, "123456" and "password" are the top two most popular passwords online. New entries on the list include "111111", "sunshine", "princess", "666666", "654321", and "donald" at number 23 . SplashData CEO Morgan Slain discussed the list: "Hackers have great success using celebrity names, terms from pop culture and sports, and simple keyboard patterns to break into accounts online because they know so many people are using those easy-to-remember combinations." "

    https://www.macrumors.com

    I think I see a way to hack Trump's tweeter feed...

    I was once advised to use Welsh words as a base for passwords.
    ISTR that the Brits used Welsh (and the Yanks Cherokee) for secret communications in the war
    The Welsh Guards used Welsh in Bosnia. There are very few people able to speak both Serbo-Croat and Welsh fluently.
    Simply type a short phrase or 5 or 6 words and use that as the password. Anything over 12 or 13 characters is usually safe and any phrase will do. Leave spaces in and capitalise at least one word, but avoid well known quotes or proverbs so "Mary had a little lamb" should be avoided whereas "I like lamb butties" would be fine.
    That's the most secure way of doing it and much smarter than the internet banality of it must include lower case, upper case, numbers, symbols, sounds, silences and expletives.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,372

    Charles said:

    "For the fifth consecutive year, "123456" and "password" are the top two most popular passwords online. New entries on the list include "111111", "sunshine", "princess", "666666", "654321", and "donald" at number 23 . SplashData CEO Morgan Slain discussed the list: "Hackers have great success using celebrity names, terms from pop culture and sports, and simple keyboard patterns to break into accounts online because they know so many people are using those easy-to-remember combinations." "

    https://www.macrumors.com

    I think I see a way to hack Trump's tweeter feed...

    I was once advised to use Welsh words as a base for passwords.
    ISTR that the Brits used Welsh (and the Yanks Cherokee) for secret communications in the war
    The Welsh Guards used Welsh in Bosnia. There are very few people able to speak both Serbo-Croat and Welsh fluently.
    Simply type a short phrase or 5 or 6 words and use that as the password. Anything over 12 or 13 characters is usually safe and any phrase will do. Leave spaces in and capitalise at least one word, but avoid well known quotes or proverbs so "Mary had a little lamb" should be avoided whereas "I like lamb butties" would be fine.
    That's the most secure way of doing it and much smarter than the internet banality of it must include lower case, upper case, numbers, symbols, sounds, silences and expletives.
    Yes, that is remarkably annoying, and makes passwords far more difficult to remember - which encourages writing them down, thus rendering them far less secure.

  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,372

    John_M said:

    Charles said:

    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    Daniel Hannan is suggesting boycotting a second vote. Further evidence that the Brexiters are rapidly losing faith in their own project.

    https://twitter.com/talkRADIO/status/1073498099673432064

    Boycotting is pathetic. If you don't vote, you deserve everything that comes your way.
    Yes but it is an effective way to delegitimise a poll. Which you would want to do if you thought you were going to lose but didn't want to have to accept the result.
    I'd piss and whine about it for years on Twitter like the FBPE loons.

    Actually, I'd move on with my life. If we do remain, there can no longer be any illusions that we're not going to be subsumed within a Federal Europe. If that's what the majority want, fair enough, but I'll be terribly sad for my beloved country.

    However, it's important to retain perspective. My most immediate challenge is dealing with complications from my lens replacement surgery; post capsular opacity. That's affecting my life a hell of a lot more than Brexit :). Next year is also decision time on vaginoplasty yea/nay and if yea, what flavour.
    BTW was meaning to ask, is it you in your avatar?
    Yes it is. Something of a journey over the last few years.
    Got to do what makes you happy, hope it all goes well for you!
    Yes, all the best to John_M. I have family going through something similar, and the social and medical hurdles can be immensely frustrating.

  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,372
    Don’t know if this has been posted before, but a useful No Deal primer:
    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/no-deal-brexit-preparations
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Charles said:

    John_M said:

    Charles said:

    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    Daniel Hannan is suggesting boycotting a second vote. Further evidence that the Brexiters are rapidly losing faith in their own project.

    https://twitter.com/talkRADIO/status/1073498099673432064

    Boycotting is pathetic. If you don't vote, you deserve everything that comes your way.
    Yes but it is an effective way to delegitimise a poll. Which you would want to do if you thought you were going to lose but didn't want to have to accept the result.
    I'd piss and whine about it for years on Twitter like the FBPE loons.

    Actually, I'd move on with my life. If we do remain, there can no longer be any illusions that we're not going to be subsumed within a Federal Europe. If that's what the majority want, fair enough, but I'll be terribly sad for my beloved country.

    However, it's important to retain perspective. My most immediate challenge is dealing with complications from my lens replacement surgery; post capsular opacity. That's affecting my life a hell of a lot more than Brexit :). Next year is also decision time on vaginoplasty yea/nay and if yea, what flavour.
    BTW was meaning to ask, is it you in your avatar?
    Yes it is. Something of a journey over the last few years.
    The look suits you
    Thank you. Still, due to the scarring, best viewed from a safe distance ;).
  • Options
    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    I wonder if this real anxiety might force the hardliners to back May? There's a lot of no-deal bravado, but given that May is likely to extend Article 50 rather than allow there to be no deal, the hardliners have to consider that their brinkmanship might give them the opposite of what they want.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,920

    There are often arguments about what will happen based on "when you exclude the impossible..."
    The problem is the definition of "impossible" used by each poster is different, and that a good argument can be made for every possible route from here being "impossible".
    It does make it easy to exclude every option other than one's preferred one (which must therefore happen because every other route is impossible), but it doesn't tend to give much real illumination.

    I have no idea what's going to happen. I think anyone who claims they do is talking more out of hope or preference than solid logic.

    No deal, the deal and no Brexit are realistic possibilities that could happen.

    Anything who thinks one is an impossibility is probably picking the one they like the least. There are good reasons to argue for and against them all and probably different possibilities of each but all 3 are realistic possibilities.
    Oh, I know. We are told that each option is, in turn, impossible.
    We can Brexit with a Deal, we can Brexit with No Deal, we can not Brexit.
    The choice can be made by the politicians in the current House, given to the people in a referendum, or made following a new election.

    By politicians
    The Deal is impossible, as the numbers against it are so huge.
    No Deal is impossible, as no Government would countenance it.
    Revoking A50 is impossible, as the Government would not be willing to face the backlash.

    Referendum
    Going to a referendum itself is impossible as May and the Tories will never accept it.
    Even then, it is impossible to put No Deal on a referendum as the House would never implement it.
    It is impossible that Remain would be on a referendum as it would be suicide for the Tories to allow it there.
    The Deal cannot be on the referendum as it would already have been rejected by the House

    Election
    An election is impossible as the Tories won't go into another one with May at the helm and won't risk losing.
    Even if it wasn't impossible, it wouldn't change the logic - there wouldn't be substantive changes to the Deal, and Labour wouldn't revoke A50, or countenance No Deal.

    Ergo - all routes from here are impossible. There is no "something else" that could turn up, so that route is impossible.

    But one of them will be taken
    As a Stayer I, rather regretfully, must take Rory Stewarts advice (or what I think is his advice!), which is May’s Deal, if only because it will give a flavour of what life really will be like Outside, and doing so will give passions a chance to cool. After all, whatever the faults of the leaders on both sides, the vast majority of those voting did so with the best of intentions.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,898
    Nigelb said:

    John_M said:

    Charles said:

    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    Daniel Hannan is suggesting boycotting a second vote. Further evidence that the Brexiters are rapidly losing faith in their own project.

    https://twitter.com/talkRADIO/status/1073498099673432064

    Boycotting is pathetic. If you don't vote, you deserve everything that comes your way.
    Yes but it is an effective way to delegitimise a poll. Which you would want to do if you thought you were going to lose but didn't want to have to accept the result.
    I'd piss and whine about it for years on Twitter like the FBPE loons.

    Actually, I'd move on with my life. If we do remain, there can no longer be any illusions that we're not going to be subsumed within a Federal Europe. If that's what the majority want, fair enough, but I'll be terribly sad for my beloved country.

    However, it's important to retain perspective. My most immediate challenge is dealing with complications from my lens replacement surgery; post capsular opacity. That's affecting my life a hell of a lot more than Brexit :). Next year is also decision time on vaginoplasty yea/nay and if yea, what flavour.
    BTW was meaning to ask, is it you in your avatar?
    Yes it is. Something of a journey over the last few years.
    Got to do what makes you happy, hope it all goes well for you!
    Yes, all the best to John_M. I have family going through something similar, and the social and medical hurdles can be immensely frustrating.
    +1
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,116

    Given the EU has offered to extend article 50 in the case of a referendum it is hard for May to force it down to those 2 options. You can't really take it off the table.

    Combine that with pissed off people and it is easier to imagine them pushing for the alternative than helping out.

    Ok thanks. My reading is that the passage of time will force the WA vs Crash Out choice so long as May holds her nerve. To stop it parliament would have to remove her and install someone else. Might happen of course but for me that has to be a long shot.

    Anyway, last question and I'll stop bugging you.

    My latest 'most likely unlikely'. JC cuts a deal with May. Labour let the WA pass and in return they get a GE fairly soon after exit day.

    What am I missing there? What's the fatal flaw?
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    kinabalu said:

    Given the EU has offered to extend article 50 in the case of a referendum it is hard for May to force it down to those 2 options. You can't really take it off the table.

    Combine that with pissed off people and it is easier to imagine them pushing for the alternative than helping out.

    Ok thanks. My reading is that the passage of time will force the WA vs Crash Out choice so long as May holds her nerve. To stop it parliament would have to remove her and install someone else. Might happen of course but for me that has to be a long shot.

    Anyway, last question and I'll stop bugging you.

    My latest 'most likely unlikely'. JC cuts a deal with May. Labour let the WA pass and in return they get a GE fairly soon after exit day.

    What am I missing there? What's the fatal flaw?
    Labour's members put Corbyn's head on a spike. He's got positioning problems whichever way he breaks. At the moment he can hide behind Labour's quantum Brexit. That won't last. He either loses the metropolitans or the WWC.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,020
    Dadge said:

    I wonder if this real anxiety might force the hardliners to back May? There's a lot of no-deal bravado, but given that May is likely to extend Article 50 rather than allow there to be no deal, the hardliners have to consider that their brinkmanship might give them the opposite of what they want.
    Many of them genuinely would prefer no Brexit to a deal they regard as a humiliation, most of all the DUP.
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,982

    So when will Farage and his fellow travellers launch their new Gammon Party?

    Which Tories will jump ship to give them a parliamentary presence?

    They can call it 'Ham-as'.
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    Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634
    Dura_Ace said:

    So when will Farage and his fellow travellers launch their new Gammon Party?

    Which Tories will jump ship to give them a parliamentary presence?

    They can call it 'Ham-as'.
    They trying to be Corbyn's friends?
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    This is what May should do. Expel the ERG members. Labour did that with Militant. Then call a snap election with candidates approved by central office. Once the fruit cakes are out of the Commons and back in saloon bars the problem is solved.

    The only MPs who would vote for an early election where the 640 or so official Conservative candidates were each facing an ERG candidate would be on the opposition benches. But then, you knew that.....
    It would only be 70 or 80 MPS, and they would not have time to get organised to fight a snap election.
    No, if the ERG gets thrown out, then EVERY official candidate would be facing an ERG opponent. There would be no lack of ERG candidates from amongst current Conservative Party activists.
    And how well did the expelled Militants get on against the official Labour candidates?
    There weren't 17.4m aggrieved Militants to draw support from though.
    Dave Nellist came close to holding his Coventry seat in 1992. Further back Dick Taverne did retain Lincoln in February 1974.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,920

    Dadge said:

    I wonder if this real anxiety might force the hardliners to back May? There's a lot of no-deal bravado, but given that May is likely to extend Article 50 rather than allow there to be no deal, the hardliners have to consider that their brinkmanship might give them the opposite of what they want.
    Many of them genuinely would prefer no Brexit to a deal they regard as a humiliation, most of all the DUP.
    While No Brexit would be my favourite, there are going to be some VERY unhappy people about if that is the case!

    I do wonder though, whether the prospect of a visa waiver document, which has to be paid for, might start to make some previously firm mindsets often. Not so much because of the charge itself, but because of the necessity of jumping through that particular hoop.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,561
    A clear and interesting assessment of the current situation David, thank you.

    I don't agree that "loose talk of referendums will have receded" by late-January and I suspect that Labour moderates who might be minded to vote for May's Deal will instead hold out for a 2nd ref.

    Also, I can't see the sensible wing of the Conservative party allowing No Deal; they would vote with Labour to see A50 revoked imo.

    But equally you could be right, I guess. We shall see - interesting times.
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    Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,814

    I don't know if this interview has already been linked to, but this is about the best exchange on Brexit that I have ever heard. If Theresa May had been capable of thinking and acting along the lines Rory Stewart sets out - and if she had had it in her to frame the issues in the way he does - we would not be in this mess now.
    https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1073849674879111168

    Now that is how to deal with a potentially hostile interviewer as a politician and ensure all sides feel listened to.
    I believe Rory Stewart came out quite badly in Tim Shipman's Fallout, but a performance like that looks to give the lie to the portrayal in that (which could easily have been by a political enemy reporting something other than what actually happened).
    He talks a lot of sense and does so in a way that's not confrontational and makes it easy for his sense to be listened to.
    It's a pity he's not been elevated further. Against the contenders we've seen mentioned, someone capable of this performance is in a different league altogether.
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    Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,814
    IanB2 said:

    There are often arguments about what will happen based on "when you exclude the impossible..."
    The problem is the definition of "impossible" used by each poster is different, and that a good argument can be made for every possible route from here being "impossible".
    It does make it easy to exclude every option other than one's preferred one (which must therefore happen because every other route is impossible), but it doesn't tend to give much real illumination.

    I have no idea what's going to happen. I think anyone who claims they do is talking more out of hope or preference than solid logic.

    No deal, the deal and no Brexit are realistic possibilities that could happen.

    Anything who thinks one is an impossibility is probably picking the one they like the least. There are good reasons to argue for and against them all and probably different possibilities of each but all 3 are realistic possibilities.
    Oh, I know. We are told that each option is, in turn, impossible.
    We can Brexit with a Deal, we can Brexit with No Deal, we can not Brexit.
    The choice can be made by the politicians in the current House, given to the people in a referendum, or made following a new election.

    By politicians
    The Deal is impossible, as the numbers against it are so huge.
    No Deal is impossible, as no Government would countenance it.
    Revoking A50 is impossible, as the Government would not be willing to face the backlash.

    Referendum
    Going to a referendum itself is impossible as May and the Tories will never accept it.
    Even then, it is impossible to put No Deal on a referendum as the House would never implement it.
    It is impossible that Remain would be on a referendum as it would be suicide for the Tories to allow it there.
    The Deal cannot be on the referendum as it would already have been rejected by the House

    Election
    An election is impossible as the Tories won't go into another one with May at the helm and won't risk losing.
    Even if it wasn't impossible, it wouldn't change the logic - there wouldn't be substantive changes to the Deal, and Labour wouldn't revoke A50, or countenance No Deal.

    Ergo - all routes from here are impossible. There is no "something else" that could turn up, so that route is impossible.

    But one of them will be taken
    Unless you haven't thought of everything?
    "Something unexpected" is the obvious way of cutting the Gordian knot - but what?
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,116
    IanB2 said:

    For some, the Tories having had their best shot at it these past two years and seeing the crisis they are about to launch us towards, which bears no relation to anything promised during the vote, is quite sufficient respect for the referendum.

    They certainly are a rabble. Just pass the WA for pete's sake. It provides for an orderly phased exit and it guarantees citizens' rights and no hard border in Ireland. We then have X years to negotiate the all important FTA, with the Backstop guiding us towards close alignment. You'd have offered me that the day after the 2016 referendum I'd have bitten your hand off.
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