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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’ big Brexit polling news – LAB could slip to third pla

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited December 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’ big Brexit polling news – LAB could slip to third place if it helped CON pass Brexit

New YouGov poll finds that LAB would drop to behind the LDs if the party helps the Tories to pass Brexit https://t.co/WcnsPVRxJi

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 10,341
    Bang!
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 9,839
    "So called yellow vests protesters" - Are the BBC worried about offending people who wear yellow vests?
  • There is now a game of brinkmanship going on.

    My bet is that one of Corbyn or May is forced to blink first on the referendum; or alternatively can mutually act out their roles in making this happen. May proposes her deal and Corbyn adds remain to ballot option.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 31,853
    edited December 2018
    What I think of the finding of this poll...

    image
  • Scott_P said:
    Too late - already booked, although fortunately to S America rather than Europe.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 38,291
    Surely it should say 'could' drop rather than 'would' drop?
    Jonathan said:

    Sky

    TM attacks Tony Blair for insulting the Office of Prime Minister by interfering in the brexit process

    Doesn't look as if she is going to support a referendum

    TM has lost the plot.
    Remarkable. She had the plot?

    I think we can safely call it as displacement activity focusing on a widely disliked figure. Just today again I heard with confidence that Blair is and was never less than a tory.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,046
    edited December 2018
    I wonder if Labour’s internal polling agrees with that. Don’t see Labour getting off the pot on Brexit at all myself. Could explain why Labour hasn’t forced a VNOC though.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 20,622
    edited December 2018

    Scott_P said:
    Too late - already booked, although fortunately to S America rather than Europe.
    My wife's 80th birthday cruise is southampton to nova scotia, new england, boston, new york and back over 24 days in September and should be safe

    But that is so selfish, no deal has to be stopped
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 31,853
    edited December 2018
    Scott_P said:
    The madness of a coalition of Corbyn, Cable and co?
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634
    "could".
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 38,291

    Hunt is an absolute idiot. This is why, whatever you think of his politics, you have to admire someone like Ken Clarke, who is conviction led and sticks to his views. Could have easily been Tory leader and PM if he dialled back or hidden his pro-EU views
    So he could only have been pm if he were not in fact conviction led and stuck to his views, meaning we would not respect him.
    IanB2 said:

    If all the media rumours are to be believed, leading Tories are warming to a referendum just as leading Labour goes cold. Perhaps Labour only wanted to back the idea if it never came to pass. There is still nevertheless close to a majority in Parliament for it, particularly if it has some sort of cabinet backing.

    If cabinet offers one Corbyn would find it very hard to say no depending on the question.
    Scott_P said:
    Changing government might improve things but it won't stop the mad chaos. If brexit is the madness they mean to stop labour officially are committed to leaving at the moment.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 38,291

    I wonder if Labour’s internal polling agrees with that. Don’t see Labour getting off the pot on Brexit at all myself. Could explain why Labour hasn’t forced a VNOC though.

    There's no rush - any alternate plans they have require delays, somehow, so from their perspective let the Tories squirm.
  • Scott_P said:
    Too late - already booked, although fortunately to S America rather than Europe.
    As long as you're a UK citizen, you should be fine. Most flights should be unaffected - it's Border Control that is likely to be a pain point. That being said, if it's non-essential travel, perhaps you shouldn't risk being in the 10%.
  • XenonXenon Posts: 458
    I see the two minute hate for Hunt has started on here because he isn't a crappy remainer like most of the cabinet.
  • Xenon said:

    I see the two minute hate for Hunt has started on here because he isn't a crappy remainer like most of the cabinet.

    Not from me but am a bit surprised
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 10,557
    Scott_P said:
    I feared this was coming. Good job I don't work for a UK travel industry company.... Oh.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 13,145
    Xenon said:

    I see the two minute hate for Hunt has started on here because he isn't a crappy remainer like most of the cabinet.

    Apart from his having voted remain, you mean?
  • XenonXenon Posts: 458
    IanB2 said:

    Xenon said:

    I see the two minute hate for Hunt has started on here because he isn't a crappy remainer like most of the cabinet.

    Apart from his having voted remain, you mean?
    Believe it or not, things have changed a bit since the referendum.

    And the fact that he is exploring the possibility of no deal means the usual suspects on here going mental.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 3,749

    Scott_P said:
    Too late - already booked, although fortunately to S America rather than Europe.
    As long as you're a UK citizen, you should be fine. Most flights should be unaffected - it's Border Control that is likely to be a pain point. That being said, if it's non-essential travel, perhaps you shouldn't risk being in the 10%.
    On January 8th I'm down to pay £7K for a skiing holiday for my grandchildren and myself in France travelling on 7th April. I've paid a £1K deposit. Should I pay or cancel?
  • Hunt trying to outflank Javid for the wingnut vote. Sad.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 6,610
    Barnesian said:

    Scott_P said:
    Too late - already booked, although fortunately to S America rather than Europe.
    As long as you're a UK citizen, you should be fine. Most flights should be unaffected - it's Border Control that is likely to be a pain point. That being said, if it's non-essential travel, perhaps you shouldn't risk being in the 10%.
    On January 8th I'm down to pay £7K for a skiing holiday for my grandchildren and myself in France travelling on 7th April. I've paid a £1K deposit. Should I pay or cancel?
    I don't know.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 106
    Astonishing that some ministers think no deal is just a small bump in the road !

    These nutjobs are a disgrace and couldn’t care less about the general public .
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 13,145
    Hunt in 2016: to his credit, he argued that triggering A50 before working up our proposals would be dumb, because of the risk of crashing out. He was also an early adopter of the second vote:

    So our plan must be to encourage them to reform those rules, thereby opening up a space for a “Norway plus” option for us – full access to the single market with a sensible compromise on free movement rules. As their biggest non-EU trading partner, it is in the European interest to do this deal with them as much as it is in our interests to secure it.

    So what is the best way to secure such a deal? Firstly we must not invoke Article 50 straight away because that puts a time limit of two years on negotiations after which we could be thrown out with no deal at all. So before setting the clock ticking, we need to negotiate a deal and put it to the British people, either in a referendum or through the Conservative manifesto at a fresh general election.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 1,087
    Barnesian said:

    Scott_P said:
    Too late - already booked, although fortunately to S America rather than Europe.
    As long as you're a UK citizen, you should be fine. Most flights should be unaffected - it's Border Control that is likely to be a pain point. That being said, if it's non-essential travel, perhaps you shouldn't risk being in the 10%.
    On January 8th I'm down to pay £7K for a skiing holiday for my grandchildren and myself in France travelling on 7th April. I've paid a £1K deposit. Should I pay or cancel?
    Cancel and go to Italy.
  • XenonXenon Posts: 458
    nico67 said:

    Astonishing that some ministers think no deal is just a small bump in the road !

    These nutjobs are a disgrace and couldn’t care less about the general public .

    People voted to leave the EU and there's no way of getting an acceptable deal. What else can they do?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 13,145
    Barnesian said:

    Scott_P said:
    Too late - already booked, although fortunately to S America rather than Europe.
    As long as you're a UK citizen, you should be fine. Most flights should be unaffected - it's Border Control that is likely to be a pain point. That being said, if it's non-essential travel, perhaps you shouldn't risk being in the 10%.
    On January 8th I'm down to pay £7K for a skiing holiday for my grandchildren and myself in France travelling on 7th April. I've paid a £1K deposit. Should I pay or cancel?
    Someone has to try and leave the country, just to see if we still can. It may as well be you.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 13,145
    Xenon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Xenon said:

    I see the two minute hate for Hunt has started on here because he isn't a crappy remainer like most of the cabinet.

    Apart from his having voted remain, you mean?
    Believe it or not, things have changed a bit since the referendum.

    And the fact that he is exploring the possibility of no deal means the usual suspects on here going mental.
    Hence the argument for a second vote. Which Hunt himself made early on.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 6,293

    Scott_P said:
    Too late - already booked, although fortunately to S America rather than Europe.
    I reckon the Red Funnel line to East Cowes will still be running fine...
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 1,963
    Scott_P said:
    May was right to point out that the choice facing MPs was her deal, no deal or no Brexit. Her deal is dead, no deal is not acceptable to about 500 out of 650 MPs.

    So no Brexit it will be.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 6,600
    Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:
    I feared this was coming. Good job I don't work for a UK travel industry company.... Oh.
    I believe the EU has said that holiday travel will still be ok.

    Good job there are no EU countries whose economies are supported by tourism.......
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 6,293
    Floater said:

    Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:
    I feared this was coming. Good job I don't work for a UK travel industry company.... Oh.
    I believe the EU has said that holiday travel will still be ok.

    Good job there are no EU countries whose economies are supported by tourism.......
    Christmas to end March is when Brits book their weeks in the sun.

    May affect the #peoplesvote
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 3,749
    IanB2 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Scott_P said:
    Too late - already booked, although fortunately to S America rather than Europe.
    As long as you're a UK citizen, you should be fine. Most flights should be unaffected - it's Border Control that is likely to be a pain point. That being said, if it's non-essential travel, perhaps you shouldn't risk being in the 10%.
    On January 8th I'm down to pay £7K for a skiing holiday for my grandchildren and myself in France travelling on 7th April. I've paid a £1K deposit. Should I pay or cancel?
    Someone has to try and leave the country, just to see if we still can. It may as well be you.
    Thanks Ian
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 49,035
    Hold on, wasn't a second referendum chance receeding just a couple of threads ago - and now we're "hurtling toward inevitability" ?!
  • Pulpstar said:

    Hold on, wasn't a second referendum chance receeding just a couple of threads ago - and now we're "hurtling toward inevitability" ?!

    Depends on which paper you read
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 49,035
    I'm probably holidaying in Germany come June. I'm extremely confident I'll be able to go whatever scenario plays out.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 24,091
    "Calls for Royal Mail to rethink design of religious stamps as sales slump"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/12/15/calls-royal-mail-rethink-design-religious-stamps-sales-slump/
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 13,145
    Pulpstar said:

    Hold on, wasn't a second referendum chance receeding just a couple of threads ago - and now we're "hurtling toward inevitability" ?!

    It was just taking a step back for a run up.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 2,841
    Xenon said:

    nico67 said:

    Astonishing that some ministers think no deal is just a small bump in the road !

    These nutjobs are a disgrace and couldn’t care less about the general public .

    People voted to leave the EU and there's no way of getting an acceptable deal. What else can they do?
    Get the best deal they can then check people are happy with it via another referendum.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 49,035
    edited December 2018
    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Hold on, wasn't a second referendum chance receeding just a couple of threads ago - and now we're "hurtling toward inevitability" ?!

    It was just taking a step back for a run up.
    It is 6-4 against on Betfair. What are the true odds ? What's the Kelly criterion ?
    Should I take an early redemption penalty on my mortgage and put 60 grand down on it ?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 13,145
    Cabinet ministers are making fresh pleas for a new approach after the prime minister’s bleakest week in office, which has left her authority seriously damaged and led some Tory MPs to fear it will become impossible for her to govern.

    Senior figures in the government are convinced that with no sign of the parliamentary stalemate being resolved, Tory MPs must be allowed a free vote in a series of ballots over different options – allowing ministers and backbenchers to support a second referendum as a way out. Some ministers are planning to take matters into their own hands and back another public vote should the prime minister’s beleaguered Brexit deal be rejected. “Once the deal has been voted down, there will be no clear government position and we will be freer,” said one.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 49,035

    The argument is incidentally being distorted by the hyperbole of "No Deal=no food or medicine". That won't happen. If we can't reach a deal, a basic WTO arrangement allowing the flow of trade (with tariffs), aircraft flying etc., will be reached while we ponder what to do. The discussion should weigh that up against the deal or any other deal. The option would be extremely unsatisfactory but probably not permanent. The WA in all likelihood would be permanent.

    Nick P sounds intensely relaxed about 'no deal' :)

  • nico67nico67 Posts: 106
    So the new Leave campaign slogan . We survived worst ! No deal is apparently what everyone voted for . Shame I didn’t see that on the bus.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 10,341
    Good to hear some grownups are still working in Westminster.
  • Foxy said:

    Scott_P said:
    Too late - already booked, although fortunately to S America rather than Europe.
    I reckon the Red Funnel line to East Cowes will still be running fine...
    Tempting though that is, I think I’ll pass........ BlackgangChine vs Machu Pichu and the Atacama isn’t really a choice
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 1,087

    Foxy said:

    Scott_P said:
    Too late - already booked, although fortunately to S America rather than Europe.
    I reckon the Red Funnel line to East Cowes will still be running fine...
    Tempting though that is, I think I’ll pass........ BlackgangChine vs Machu Pichu and the Atacama isn’t really a choice
    Are you going to Peru?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 6,610
    Pulpstar said:

    The argument is incidentally being distorted by the hyperbole of "No Deal=no food or medicine". That won't happen. If we can't reach a deal, a basic WTO arrangement allowing the flow of trade (with tariffs), aircraft flying etc., will be reached while we ponder what to do. The discussion should weigh that up against the deal or any other deal. The option would be extremely unsatisfactory but probably not permanent. The WA in all likelihood would be permanent.

    Nick P sounds intensely relaxed about 'no deal' :)

    He's not going to lose his job if the economy goes [redacted]
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 6,293

    Foxy said:

    Scott_P said:
    Too late - already booked, although fortunately to S America rather than Europe.
    I reckon the Red Funnel line to East Cowes will still be running fine...
    Tempting though that is, I think I’ll pass........ BlackgangChine vs Machu Pichu and the Atacama isn’t really a choice
    There is a Llama farm in the West Wight :)
  • Foxy said:

    Scott_P said:
    Too late - already booked, although fortunately to S America rather than Europe.
    I reckon the Red Funnel line to East Cowes will still be running fine...
    Tempting though that is, I think I’ll pass........ BlackgangChine vs Machu Pichu and the Atacama isn’t really a choice
    Are you going to Peru?
    And Chile
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 11,562
    Pulpstar said:

    The argument is incidentally being distorted by the hyperbole of "No Deal=no food or medicine". That won't happen. If we can't reach a deal, a basic WTO arrangement allowing the flow of trade (with tariffs), aircraft flying etc., will be reached while we ponder what to do. The discussion should weigh that up against the deal or any other deal. The option would be extremely unsatisfactory but probably not permanent. The WA in all likelihood would be permanent.

    Nick P sounds intensely relaxed about 'no deal' :)

    No. I think it'd be crap. But I think the overblown rhetoric is actually disguising its crapness, because people rightly dismiss the hysterical stuff and don't notice just how grim it would be for the economy.

    Utterly bizarre on the last thread that Mrs May attacks Blair for "insulting the office of the Prime Minister" for proposing a second referendum. We've all heard rather stronger insults than that from people on her own side. TB may not be everyone's cup of tea, but he doesn't do insults.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 10,557
    Floater said:

    Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:
    I feared this was coming. Good job I don't work for a UK travel industry company.... Oh.
    I believe the EU has said that holiday travel will still be ok.

    Good job there are no EU countries whose economies are supported by tourism.......
    Not if there aren't any planes flying because we have no aviation deal(s).

    No Deal Brexit means no deal.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 1,963
    Jonathan said:

    Good to hear some grownups are still working in Westminster.

    After the past two years it's quite hard to believe that there are any grown ups in Westminster.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 10,557
    Foxy said:

    Floater said:

    Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:
    I feared this was coming. Good job I don't work for a UK travel industry company.... Oh.
    I believe the EU has said that holiday travel will still be ok.

    Good job there are no EU countries whose economies are supported by tourism.......
    Christmas to end March is when Brits book their weeks in the sun.

    May affect the #peoplesvote
    First two weeks of Jan are a huge surge in bookings.

    Normally.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 6,293

    Pulpstar said:

    The argument is incidentally being distorted by the hyperbole of "No Deal=no food or medicine". That won't happen. If we can't reach a deal, a basic WTO arrangement allowing the flow of trade (with tariffs), aircraft flying etc., will be reached while we ponder what to do. The discussion should weigh that up against the deal or any other deal. The option would be extremely unsatisfactory but probably not permanent. The WA in all likelihood would be permanent.

    Nick P sounds intensely relaxed about 'no deal' :)

    No. I think it'd be crap. But I think the overblown rhetoric is actually disguising its crapness, because people rightly dismiss the hysterical stuff and don't notice just how grim it would be for the economy.

    Utterly bizarre on the last thread that Mrs May attacks Blair for "insulting the office of the Prime Minister" for proposing a second referendum. We've all heard rather stronger insults than that from people on her own side. TB may not be everyone's cup of tea, but he doesn't do insults.
    Yes, I think a lot of the No Deal apocalyptic talk is overblown.

    But I am in the ultimate safe business, rich or poor, state or private, there will always be work for me.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 1,087

    Foxy said:

    Scott_P said:
    Too late - already booked, although fortunately to S America rather than Europe.
    I reckon the Red Funnel line to East Cowes will still be running fine...
    Tempting though that is, I think I’ll pass........ BlackgangChine vs Machu Pichu and the Atacama isn’t really a choice
    Are you going to Peru?
    And Chile
    In Peru, seeing as you mentioned Machu Pichu I assume you will be in Cusco. If you have time hire an authorised guide. They have completed three years at Uni to qualify. The one we hired for a day was fascinating. They take you to sites to explain both how the Inca's lived but also how the archaeologists worked it all out and ours was a local and he took us to his village for lunch to meet "real" Peruvians.
    But anyway have a great time I did.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 6,610
    Foxy said:

    But I am in the ultimate safe business, rich or poor, state or private, there will always be work for me.

    Lawyer?

  • Foxy said:

    Scott_P said:
    Too late - already booked, although fortunately to S America rather than Europe.
    I reckon the Red Funnel line to East Cowes will still be running fine...
    Tempting though that is, I think I’ll pass........ BlackgangChine vs Machu Pichu and the Atacama isn’t really a choice
    Are you going to Peru?
    And Chile
    In Peru, seeing as you mentioned Machu Pichu I assume you will be in Cusco. If you have time hire an authorised guide. They have completed three years at Uni to qualify. The one we hired for a day was fascinating. They take you to sites to explain both how the Inca's lived but also how the archaeologists worked it all out and ours was a local and he took us to his village for lunch to meet "real" Peruvians.
    But anyway have a great time I did.
    I will. Thanks a lot for the tip. Much appreciated
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 6,293
    viewcode said:

    Foxy said:

    But I am in the ultimate safe business, rich or poor, state or private, there will always be work for me.

    Lawyer?

    Safer still! I am a doctor in a shortage speciality.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 38,291
    Scott_P said:
    He at least wants parliament to fix the mess itself. It is not necessary to delegate it to the people.
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 1,290
    Pulpstar said:

    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Hold on, wasn't a second referendum chance receeding just a couple of threads ago - and now we're "hurtling toward inevitability" ?!

    It was just taking a step back for a run up.
    It is 6-4 against on Betfair. What are the true odds ? What's the Kelly criterion ?
    Should I take an early redemption penalty on my mortgage and put 60 grand down on it ?
    I think the true probability, based on political factors, is about 20-25%, not 40-50%. It implies that the odds should be 4.0-5.0. So I've bet a small amount on no referendum.

    I understand constituency betting better than Brexit. Can we have a GE please?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,433
    edited December 2018
    If true this shows how reliant the 2017 Labour vote was on Remainers and if Corbyn does not take any action to try and reverse Brexit or at least stay in the single market the way could be open for a new SDP party
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 38,291
    Pulpstar said:

    Hold on, wasn't a second referendum chance receeding just a couple of threads ago - and now we're "hurtling toward inevitability" ?!

    Depends who is talking, though I don't buy labour would go sour on a referendum. It's not the professed no.1 option but it gives a lot off Them what they want- a do over.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 2,946
    May offers parliament a vote on #peoplesvote

    ERG and DUP confirm they will support a Labour VONC in response

    Labour VONC wins

    Election ensues

    Labour gain power in exchange for a #peoplesvote between Permanent CU deal and Remain :lol::trollface:

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 38,291
    HYUFD said:

    If true this shows how reliant the 2017 Labour vote was for Remainers and if Corbyn does not take any action to try and reverse Brexit or at least stay in the single market the way could be open for a new SDP party

    He will. Whatever his preferences he needs the party to do anything he wants, he must give them this.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 6,293
    Alistair said:

    Foxy said:

    Floater said:

    Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:
    I feared this was coming. Good job I don't work for a UK travel industry company.... Oh.
    I believe the EU has said that holiday travel will still be ok.

    Good job there are no EU countries whose economies are supported by tourism.......
    Christmas to end March is when Brits book their weeks in the sun.

    May affect the #peoplesvote
    First two weeks of Jan are a huge surge in bookings.

    Normally.
    Matt on the case:

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 10,341
    Foxy said:

    viewcode said:

    Foxy said:

    But I am in the ultimate safe business, rich or poor, state or private, there will always be work for me.

    Lawyer?

    Safer still! I am a doctor in a shortage speciality.
    In the 1920s crisis there was plenty of work for doctors, just very little paid work.
  • Barnesian said:

    Scott_P said:
    Too late - already booked, although fortunately to S America rather than Europe.
    As long as you're a UK citizen, you should be fine. Most flights should be unaffected - it's Border Control that is likely to be a pain point. That being said, if it's non-essential travel, perhaps you shouldn't risk being in the 10%.
    On January 8th I'm down to pay £7K for a skiing holiday for my grandchildren and myself in France travelling on 7th April. I've paid a £1K deposit. Should I pay or cancel?
    Is it package - flights & accommodation - or separate?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 38,291
    Foxy said:

    Alistair said:

    Foxy said:

    Floater said:

    Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:
    I feared this was coming. Good job I don't work for a UK travel industry company.... Oh.
    I believe the EU has said that holiday travel will still be ok.

    Good job there are no EU countries whose economies are supported by tourism.......
    Christmas to end March is when Brits book their weeks in the sun.

    May affect the #peoplesvote
    First two weeks of Jan are a huge surge in bookings.

    Normally.
    Matt on the case:

    Ah, the sad 'people are laughing at us' gag. Nations go through hard, chaotic politics sometimes, and people will laugh as a result, it doesn't destroy that nation and should not worry people. After all decision makers and diplomats will be much more cold and calculating, once tough times pass past laughter hardly matters. But insecure people seem to get very worked up about it.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 6,293
    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    viewcode said:

    Foxy said:

    But I am in the ultimate safe business, rich or poor, state or private, there will always be work for me.

    Lawyer?

    Safer still! I am a doctor in a shortage speciality.
    In the 1920s crisis there was plenty of work for doctors, just very little paid work.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,433
    edited December 2018
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    If true this shows how reliant the 2017 Labour vote was for Remainers and if Corbyn does not take any action to try and reverse Brexit or at least stay in the single market the way could be open for a new SDP party

    He will. Whatever his preferences he needs the party to do anything he wants, he must give them this.

    Though that also risks working class Leavers moving to the Tories or UKIP or the new Farage party
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 38,291
    Freggles said:

    May offers parliament a vote on #peoplesvote

    ERG and DUP confirm they will support a Labour VONC in response

    Labour VONC wins

    Election ensues

    Labour gain power in exchange for a #peoplesvote between Permanent CU deal and Remain :lol::trollface:

    Could happen. Labour get to be in power and what they want, so its better than just being given what they want.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 6,293
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    If true this shows how reliant the 2017 Labour vote was for Remainers and if Corbyn does not take any action to try and reverse Brexit or at least stay in the single market the way could be open for a new SDP party

    He will. Whatever his preferences he needs the party to do anything he wants, he must give them this.

    Though that also risks working class Leavers moving to the Tories or UKIP or the new Farage party
    Though I think that the poll in the header shows that to be a much smaller effect.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 3,749

    Barnesian said:

    Scott_P said:
    Too late - already booked, although fortunately to S America rather than Europe.
    As long as you're a UK citizen, you should be fine. Most flights should be unaffected - it's Border Control that is likely to be a pain point. That being said, if it's non-essential travel, perhaps you shouldn't risk being in the 10%.
    On January 8th I'm down to pay £7K for a skiing holiday for my grandchildren and myself in France travelling on 7th April. I've paid a £1K deposit. Should I pay or cancel?
    Is it package - flights & accommodation - or separate?
    A package. Clubmed
  • Alistair said:

    Foxy said:

    Floater said:

    Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:
    I feared this was coming. Good job I don't work for a UK travel industry company.... Oh.
    I believe the EU has said that holiday travel will still be ok.

    Good job there are no EU countries whose economies are supported by tourism.......
    Christmas to end March is when Brits book their weeks in the sun.

    May affect the #peoplesvote
    First two weeks of Jan are a huge surge in bookings.

    Normally.
    My partner has an apartment in Rothesay which she rents out as a holiday let. About a 300% increase in bookings for 2019 over a normal Nov-Dec.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 38,291
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    If true this shows how reliant the 2017 Labour vote was for Remainers and if Corbyn does not take any action to try and reverse Brexit or at least stay in the single market the way could be open for a new SDP party

    He will. Whatever his preferences he needs the party to do anything he wants, he must give them this.

    Though that also risks working class Leavers moving to the Tories or UKIP or the new Farage party
    Yes, but he has to pick a side at some point and given his members it will be remain or as remainy as he can get. He will be relying on Tories in chaos to make up for the hit if leavers are departing.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 6,600
    Alistair said:

    Floater said:

    Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:
    I feared this was coming. Good job I don't work for a UK travel industry company.... Oh.
    I believe the EU has said that holiday travel will still be ok.

    Good job there are no EU countries whose economies are supported by tourism.......
    Not if there aren't any planes flying because we have no aviation deal(s).

    No Deal Brexit means no deal.
    That is absolute bollocks

    PLANES WILL NOT BE GROUNDED

    Unless various international bodies are wrong and you know better?

    Personally my money is not on you.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 6,753
    Barnesian said:

    Scott_P said:
    Too late - already booked, although fortunately to S America rather than Europe.
    As long as you're a UK citizen, you should be fine. Most flights should be unaffected - it's Border Control that is likely to be a pain point. That being said, if it's non-essential travel, perhaps you shouldn't risk being in the 10%.
    On January 8th I'm down to pay £7K for a skiing holiday for my grandchildren and myself in France travelling on 7th April. I've paid a £1K deposit. Should I pay or cancel?
    Assuming you are ABTA protected you should be ok shouldn't you? Failing that, what about your travel insurance?
  • Barnesian said:

    Scott_P said:
    Too late - already booked, although fortunately to S America rather than Europe.
    As long as you're a UK citizen, you should be fine. Most flights should be unaffected - it's Border Control that is likely to be a pain point. That being said, if it's non-essential travel, perhaps you shouldn't risk being in the 10%.
    On January 8th I'm down to pay £7K for a skiing holiday for my grandchildren and myself in France travelling on 7th April. I've paid a £1K deposit. Should I pay or cancel?
    The snow is normally better in February half-term - can you reschedule?
  • Barnesian said:

    Scott_P said:
    Too late - already booked, although fortunately to S America rather than Europe.
    As long as you're a UK citizen, you should be fine. Most flights should be unaffected - it's Border Control that is likely to be a pain point. That being said, if it's non-essential travel, perhaps you shouldn't risk being in the 10%.
    On January 8th I'm down to pay £7K for a skiing holiday for my grandchildren and myself in France travelling on 7th April. I've paid a £1K deposit. Should I pay or cancel?
    Assuming you are ABTA protected you should be ok shouldn't you? Failing that, what about your travel insurance?
    I've heard it argued that Brexit won't be covered because it will come under disruption caused by government action, so Force Majeure.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 10,701
    On Topic Yeah RIght
  • Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Scott_P said:
    Too late - already booked, although fortunately to S America rather than Europe.
    As long as you're a UK citizen, you should be fine. Most flights should be unaffected - it's Border Control that is likely to be a pain point. That being said, if it's non-essential travel, perhaps you shouldn't risk being in the 10%.
    On January 8th I'm down to pay £7K for a skiing holiday for my grandchildren and myself in France travelling on 7th April. I've paid a £1K deposit. Should I pay or cancel?
    Is it package - flights & accommodation - or separate?
    A package. Clubmed
    Definitely preferable, because part of what you are paying them for is getting you to your holiday.

    You should check the T&Cs of your agreement with ClubMed and get what assurances you can from them, but I would personally be quite relaxed (this is assuming all travellers are British passport holders).

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 6,753
    Floater said:

    Alistair said:

    Floater said:

    Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:
    I feared this was coming. Good job I don't work for a UK travel industry company.... Oh.
    I believe the EU has said that holiday travel will still be ok.

    Good job there are no EU countries whose economies are supported by tourism.......
    Not if there aren't any planes flying because we have no aviation deal(s).

    No Deal Brexit means no deal.
    That is absolute bollocks

    PLANES WILL NOT BE GROUNDED

    Unless various international bodies are wrong and you know better?

    Personally my money is not on you.
    I agree that planes will probably not be grounded in the event of No Deal - some interim arrangement will be agreed.

    But border controls (and confusion about border controls) are likely to cause chaos. It only takes a small disruption to bring large airports to an effectice halt.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 8,815
    edited December 2018
    Floater said:

    Alistair said:

    Floater said:

    Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:
    I feared this was coming. Good job I don't work for a UK travel industry company.... Oh.
    I believe the EU has said that holiday travel will still be ok.

    Good job there are no EU countries whose economies are supported by tourism.......
    Not if there aren't any planes flying because we have no aviation deal(s).

    No Deal Brexit means no deal.
    That is absolute bollocks

    PLANES WILL NOT BE GROUNDED

    Unless various international bodies are wrong and you know better?

    Personally my money is not on you.
    It's not the planes flying - the industry is confident they will fly - but various practical consequences to look out for. For example, EU passengers can currently use e-gates - that's because they have the right to enter the UK under freedom of movement.

    That should end on 29 March, thereby pushing them into other lanes - but practically speaking it is difficult to imagine that happening.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 24,263
    The sunlit uplands are a distant memory.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,433
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    If true this shows how reliant the 2017 Labour vote was for Remainers and if Corbyn does not take any action to try and reverse Brexit or at least stay in the single market the way could be open for a new SDP party

    He will. Whatever his preferences he needs the party to do anything he wants, he must give them this.

    Though that also risks working class Leavers moving to the Tories or UKIP or the new Farage party
    Yes, but he has to pick a side at some point and given his members it will be remain or as remainy as he can get. He will be relying on Tories in chaos to make up for the hit if leavers are departing.
    It may that the main parties increasingly divide on Brexit lines, especially once May and Corbyn go who are both more pro EU and more Brexit respectively than their party memberships
  • Floater said:

    Alistair said:

    Floater said:

    Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:
    I feared this was coming. Good job I don't work for a UK travel industry company.... Oh.
    I believe the EU has said that holiday travel will still be ok.

    Good job there are no EU countries whose economies are supported by tourism.......
    Not if there aren't any planes flying because we have no aviation deal(s).

    No Deal Brexit means no deal.
    That is absolute bollocks

    PLANES WILL NOT BE GROUNDED

    Unless various international bodies are wrong and you know better?

    Personally my money is not on you.
    I agree that planes will probably not be grounded in the event of No Deal - some interim arrangement will be agreed.

    But border controls (and confusion about border controls) are likely to cause chaos. It only takes a small disruption to bring large airports to an effectice halt.
    Confusion is an interesting one.

    IATA is currently struggling with the idea that although people will still be able to fly, people might think they can't.

    People get very stressed at airports and, for example, ignore signs and basically forget how to be a functioning human being (or at least some of them do).

    So the answer to confusion is difficult to know.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 6,753
    edited December 2018

    Barnesian said:

    Scott_P said:
    Too late - already booked, although fortunately to S America rather than Europe.
    As long as you're a UK citizen, you should be fine. Most flights should be unaffected - it's Border Control that is likely to be a pain point. That being said, if it's non-essential travel, perhaps you shouldn't risk being in the 10%.
    On January 8th I'm down to pay £7K for a skiing holiday for my grandchildren and myself in France travelling on 7th April. I've paid a £1K deposit. Should I pay or cancel?
    Assuming you are ABTA protected you should be ok shouldn't you? Failing that, what about your travel insurance?
    I've heard it argued that Brexit won't be covered because it will come under disruption caused by government action, so Force Majeure.
    Hmmm... it seems ABTA themselves are not really helping the travel industry with comments like this:

    https://www.abta.com/industry-zone/reports-and-publications/brexit-getting-it-right-for-the-traveller

    "Every part of the traveller’s journey – from booking through to support when on holiday – is affected by the UK’s membership of the EU.

    Getting a good deal from the Brexit negotiations will be vital for the millions of people who travel between the UK and the EU each year."


    So draw your own conclusions about what ABTA thinks No Deal means for travel to the EU.

    Personally, I'm feeling rather grateful that our only planned overseas travel next year is a cruise to the Canaries, returning 24th March.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 6,610

    Barnesian said:

    Scott_P said:
    Too late - already booked, although fortunately to S America rather than Europe.
    As long as you're a UK citizen, you should be fine. Most flights should be unaffected - it's Border Control that is likely to be a pain point. That being said, if it's non-essential travel, perhaps you shouldn't risk being in the 10%.
    On January 8th I'm down to pay £7K for a skiing holiday for my grandchildren and myself in France travelling on 7th April. I've paid a £1K deposit. Should I pay or cancel?
    Assuming you are ABTA protected you should be ok shouldn't you? Failing that, what about your travel insurance?
    I've heard it argued that Brexit won't be covered because it will come under disruption caused by government action, so Force Majeure.
    I work for an insurance company and my desk is close to the underwriters. From what I've heard from casual overhearing (which may not reflect actual policy!), Brexit damage won't be covered unless you have specifically covered for it, because it's a scheduled event with a great deal of notice. If you are in a car crash you are covered, but if a car is heading towards you for two years then you aren't covered. Peeps have been informed of Brexit day for over two years.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,003
    Barnesian said:

    Scott_P said:
    Too late - already booked, although fortunately to S America rather than Europe.
    As long as you're a UK citizen, you should be fine. Most flights should be unaffected - it's Border Control that is likely to be a pain point. That being said, if it's non-essential travel, perhaps you shouldn't risk being in the 10%.
    On January 8th I'm down to pay £7K for a skiing holiday for my grandchildren and myself in France travelling on 7th April. I've paid a £1K deposit. Should I pay or cancel?
    i would cancel and get the deposit back. Until the uncertainty is removed, there are no guarantees and it is a lot of money to risk
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 6,753

    Floater said:

    Alistair said:

    Floater said:

    Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:
    I feared this was coming. Good job I don't work for a UK travel industry company.... Oh.
    I believe the EU has said that holiday travel will still be ok.

    Good job there are no EU countries whose economies are supported by tourism.......
    Not if there aren't any planes flying because we have no aviation deal(s).

    No Deal Brexit means no deal.
    That is absolute bollocks

    PLANES WILL NOT BE GROUNDED

    Unless various international bodies are wrong and you know better?

    Personally my money is not on you.
    I agree that planes will probably not be grounded in the event of No Deal - some interim arrangement will be agreed.

    But border controls (and confusion about border controls) are likely to cause chaos. It only takes a small disruption to bring large airports to an effectice halt.
    Confusion is an interesting one.

    IATA is currently struggling with the idea that although people will still be able to fly, people might think they can't.

    People get very stressed at airports and, for example, ignore signs and basically forget how to be a functioning human being (or at least some of them do).

    So the answer to confusion is difficult to know.
    For the majority who don't travel regularly airports (especially large ones) are extremely disorientating and therfore stressful places.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 38,291
    edited December 2018

    Barnesian said:

    Scott_P said:
    Too late - already booked, although fortunately to S America rather than Europe.
    As long as you're a UK citizen, you should be fine. Most flights should be unaffected - it's Border Control that is likely to be a pain point. That being said, if it's non-essential travel, perhaps you shouldn't risk being in the 10%.
    On January 8th I'm down to pay £7K for a skiing holiday for my grandchildren and myself in France travelling on 7th April. I've paid a £1K deposit. Should I pay or cancel?
    i would cancel and get the deposit back. Until the uncertainty is removed, there are no guarantees and it is a lot of money to risk
    But enough about brexit policy.
  • viewcode said:

    Barnesian said:

    Scott_P said:
    Too late - already booked, although fortunately to S America rather than Europe.
    As long as you're a UK citizen, you should be fine. Most flights should be unaffected - it's Border Control that is likely to be a pain point. That being said, if it's non-essential travel, perhaps you shouldn't risk being in the 10%.
    On January 8th I'm down to pay £7K for a skiing holiday for my grandchildren and myself in France travelling on 7th April. I've paid a £1K deposit. Should I pay or cancel?
    Assuming you are ABTA protected you should be ok shouldn't you? Failing that, what about your travel insurance?
    I've heard it argued that Brexit won't be covered because it will come under disruption caused by government action, so Force Majeure.
    I work for an insurance company and my desk is close to the underwriters. From what I've heard from casual overhearing (which may not reflect actual policy!), Brexit damage won't be covered unless you have specifically covered for it, because it's a scheduled event with a great deal of notice. If you are in a car crash you are covered, but if a car is heading towards you for two years then you aren't covered. Peeps have been informed of Brexit day for over two years.
    I think we need to take a step back here.

    The people most at risk are those that book their flights and accommodation separately. Their airline will refund them the cost of their ticket, but will refute any liability in respect of the rest of your trip. It's those other costs that you want covered by travel insurance - and I would want cover that explicitly covered it. Insurance is an allocation exercise in risk, so it may be you have to pay more to get more.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 10,341
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    If true this shows how reliant the 2017 Labour vote was for Remainers and if Corbyn does not take any action to try and reverse Brexit or at least stay in the single market the way could be open for a new SDP party

    He will. Whatever his preferences he needs the party to do anything he wants, he must give them this.

    Though that also risks working class Leavers moving to the Tories or UKIP or the new Farage party
    Yes, but he has to pick a side at some point and given his members it will be remain or as remainy as he can get. He will be relying on Tories in chaos to make up for the hit if leavers are departing.
    It may that the main parties increasingly divide on Brexit lines, especially once May and Corbyn go who are both more pro EU and more Brexit respectively than their party memberships
    Perhaps they could swap. Corbyn is just the sort of leader the ERG are looking for.
This discussion has been closed.