On another note, I think that Jeremy Hunt may be even more transparently self-interested than Boris Johnson. Is there any senior Tory anywhere who does not see Brexit through the prism of their own career opportunities?
Fake news.
Jeremy Hunt is the most egregiously qualified person to be our next Prime Minister.
On another note, I think that Jeremy Hunt may be even more transparently self-interested than Boris Johnson. Is there any senior Tory anywhere who does not see Brexit through the prism of their own career opportunities?
A complaint about the sort of thing that (some) Leave voters wanted to get shot of back in 2016, from the pages of The Observer of all places:
"The contrast between the EU’s treatment of Italy and that of France is revealing. Until last year, France had broken the EU deficit rule every year since 2008. It has never been sanctioned. President Emmanuel Macron’s recent capitulation to the gilets jaunes protesters, promising to raise the minimum wage and cancelling tax increases for low-income pensioners, makes it likely that France will break the 3% rule again next year. As early as 2003, the European court of justice ruled that EU finance ministers were negligent in not penalising France and Germany for continually flouting eurozone rules. Fifteen years on, the EU’s big beasts remain free to trample over the rules, while smaller nations (even ones as large as Italy) have to suffer democratic and social penalties...
...In 2013, having been ejected from office by the Italian electorate, Monti, in a valedictory statement to a EU summit, observed that “public support… for the European Union is dramatically declining”. To counter “the mounting wave of populism and disaffection with the European Union”, he added, the EU must start “listening to people’s concerns”. It wasn’t listening then. It’s not listening now."
The EU as Austria-Hungary: a dual monarchy presiding over a collection of discontent and restive provinces, ready to shatter at the next serious shock?
On another note, I think that Jeremy Hunt may be even more transparently self-interested than Boris Johnson. Is there any senior Tory anywhere who does not see Brexit through the prism of their own career opportunities?
Hammond is arguably sacrificing his chances at becoming PM to put across his views on Brexit.
Come to think of it in the two years since the vote, the silence of the remain campaign and hard thinking as to why they lost has been deafening. It's been all illegal leave this, Russia leave that. When will prominent remainers start to acknowledge the reasons they lost last time ?
This is one of the reasons I'm not in favour of another referendum.
Best thing for Rejoin is for the country to experience No Deal.
It'll turn the country into EU federalists.
Maybe I should campaign for remain if EUref 2 comes up.
"Yes I agree it's a disgusting betrayal of democracy that we're in this situation, I can't quite believe it myself. However in all probability our overall economic prospects are, ceteris paribus, enhanced by being in the EU particularly in the short to medium term as our economies are inherently intwined within the single market and customs union right now."
I think that'd be the line to win over the floating voters of Worksop or Coventry.
Landslide for Remain.
I think Deal would win against Remain.
Several of my Tory friends have moved from Remain to supporting Mrs May's deal. I think it is mainly down to loyalty to their party, or specifically to Mrs May who they admire for her tenacity. I can't find supporting data in the polls but I believe that Tory supporters overall have become more Leave than they were at the referendum.
But overall there has been a slight movement to Remain. This must mean that Labour Leave supporters are moving to Remain. So under the surface there may be a lot of switching going on.
I think the new Tory Leavers are much more likely to turn out to vote for Mrs May's Deal than the new Labour Remainers to turn out to vote to Remain.
So Deal would win on a differential turnout. I don't know if this makes any sense?
Nothing makes any sense any more. But a good win for the deal would be the best outcome for national unity. Everyone would be able to say it wasn't what I wanted but I can live with it. Not everyone would say that of course, but it would make the diehards on both side marginal.
But I have a feeling it will be another nail voter with nobody knowing who is going to win during the campaign and an indecisive result at the end.
Come to think of it in the two years since the vote, the silence of the remain campaign and hard thinking as to why they lost has been deafening. It's been all illegal leave this, Russia leave that. When will prominent remainers start to acknowledge the reasons they lost last time ?
This is one of the reasons I'm not in favour of another referendum.
Best thing for Rejoin is for the country to experience No Deal.
It'll turn the country into EU federalists.
Maybe I should campaign for remain if EUref 2 comes up.
"Yes I agree it's a disgusting betrayal of democracy that we're in this situation, I can't quite believe it myself. However in all probability our overall economic prospects are, ceteris paribus, enhanced by being in the EU particularly in the short to medium term as our economies are inherently intwined within the single market and customs union right now."
I think that'd be the line to win over the floating voters of Worksop or Coventry.
Landslide for Remain.
I think Deal would win against Remain.
Several of my Tory friends have moved from Remain to supporting Mrs May's deal. I think it is mainly down to loyalty to their party, or specifically to Mrs May who they admire for her tenacity. I can't find supporting data in the polls but I believe that Tory supporters overall have become more Leave than they were at the referendum.
But overall there has been a slight movement to Remain. This must mean that Labour Leave supporters are moving to Remain. So under the surface there may be a lot of switching going on.
I think the new Tory Leavers are much more likely to turn out to vote for Mrs May's Deal than the new Labour Remainers to turn out to vote to Remain.
So Deal would win on a differential turnout. I don't know if this makes any sense?
If it was May's deal v Remain I think May's deal would win comfortably. It would be another referendum on immigration and there is only one way that would go.
Come to think of it in the two years since the vote, the silence of the remain campaign and hard thinking as to why they lost has been deafening. It's been all illegal leave this, Russia leave that. When will prominent remainers start to acknowledge the reasons they lost last time ?
This is one of the reasons I'm not in favour of another referendum.
Best thing for Rejoin is for the country to experience No Deal.
It'll turn the country into EU federalists.
Maybe I should campaign for remain if EUref 2 comes up.
"Yes I agree it's a disgusting betrayal of democracy that we're in this situation, I can't quite believe it myself. However in all probability our overall economic prospects are, ceteris paribus, enhanced by being in the EU particularly in the short to medium term as our economies are inherently intwined within the single market and customs union right now."
I think that'd be the line to win over the floating voters of Worksop or Coventry.
Landslide for Remain.
I think Deal would win against Remain.
Several of my Tory friends have moved from Remain to supporting Mrs May's deal. I think it is mainly down to loyalty to their party, or specifically to Mrs May who they admire for her tenacity. I can't find supporting data in the polls but I believe that Tory supporters overall have become more Leave than they were at the referendum.
But overall there has been a slight movement to Remain. This must mean that Labour Leave supporters are moving to Remain. So under the surface there may be a lot of switching going on.
I think the new Tory Leavers are much more likely to turn out to vote for Mrs May's Deal than the new Labour Remainers to turn out to vote to Remain.
So Deal would win on a differential turnout. I don't know if this makes any sense?
If it was May's deal v Remain I think May's deal would win comfortably. It would be another referendum on immigration and there is only one way that would go.
On another note, I think that Jeremy Hunt may be even more transparently self-interested than Boris Johnson. Is there any senior Tory anywhere who does not see Brexit through the prism of their own career opportunities?
Hammond is arguably sacrificing his chances at becoming PM to put across his views on Brexit.
It's bad enough that Tony Blair is doing more to solve the problem than May herself is without her drawing attention to the fact.
Is the next unlikely twist in the Brexit mess the political rehabilitation of Tony Blair?
No it’s not. He’s the worse thing that can happen to the People’s Vote campaign and they need another spokesperson. Sadly some are still quite delusional:
On another note, I think that Jeremy Hunt may be even more transparently self-interested than Boris Johnson. Is there any senior Tory anywhere who does not see Brexit through the prism of their own career opportunities?
It's such a huge and depressing contrast to the politics of previous generations. I'm always a bit wary of "bring backery" but I am old enough to remember the 1970s debate about joining the then Common Market and at that time senior politicians argued their case from deeply-held values and principles about how they felt the best interests of the country would be served. To them this was much more important than their personal career, it could be argued the Roy Jenkins sacrificed his opportunity to lead Labour because of his dedication to the European cause. And politicians such as Heath, Foot, Powell and Shirley Williams would never have based their position on Europe on what would best serve their future career.
I think the only thing that can stop a referendum now is a group of extreme remainers holding out for the referendum ++ option.
There are major obstacles to holding another referendum before 29/3/19.
The present government won't enact legislation for a referendum and doesn't intend to revoke or delay implementation of A50. Therefore, it would need to be brought down by a VONC, and replaced by one that would do so, at least a few weeks before 29/3/19, which is easier said than done.
The clock is ticking, and running the clock down is clearly May's current strategy.
I find the notion of a PM holding the nation to ransom by running down the clock actually upsetting.
Me too. She is putting her own interests above those of the country. How dare she claim that it is her deal or nothing. She does not have support for it, whether in the Cabinet, her party or the House of Commons. Since the Tories have, stupidly, cemented her in place, the Cabinet need to move against her and either force her out or tell her that her deal is dead and that the only options are an extension of Article 50 for a referendum or a GE.
Holding the country to ransom is an utter disgrace. If other Tories cannot see how toxic this is to their party then they deserve to disappear as a party.
Andrew Gwynne on Marr sums up the utter uselessness of labours position. Not a clue about anything
I agree, it is so pitiful. He dodged every straight question and just used up his interview time wittering about his fantasy unicorn Brexit deal which everyone knows cannot exist.
It's bad enough that Tony Blair is doing more to solve the problem than May herself is without her drawing attention to the fact.
Is the next unlikely twist in the Brexit mess the political rehabilitation of Tony Blair?
No it’s not. He’s the worse thing that can happen to the People’s Vote campaign and they need another spokesperson. Sadly some are still quite delusional:
On another note, I think that Jeremy Hunt may be even more transparently self-interested than Boris Johnson. Is there any senior Tory anywhere who does not see Brexit through the prism of their own career opportunities?
It's such a huge and depressing contrast to the politics of previous generations. I'm always a bit wary of "bring backery" but I am old enough to remember the 1970s debate about joining the then Common Market and at that time senior politicians argued their case from deeply-held values and principles about how they felt the best interests of the country would be served. To them this was much more important than their personal career, it could be argued the Roy Jenkins sacrificed his opportunity to lead Labour because of his dedication to the European cause. And politicians such as Heath, Foot, Powell and Shirley Williams would never have based their position on Europe on what would best serve their future career.
Where are their equivalents today?
In the LibDems? (And Greens and SNP, and in the various bits left from UKIP)
Unlikely. The Sun and Daily Mail may look as though they're preparing for this, but it's more likely they're preparing for a referendum. What the Commons won't swallow it won't swallow.
2) May tries to sell Deal to Commons
Similarly unlikely. It's been known for ages that she'd lose by up to 200 votes.
3) May says screw the Commons
Difficult, because the Commons can if necessary revoke or suspend A50 to avert No Deal even if they haven't got an alternative Deal to hand. That Leave without No Deal requires a Deal surely means that May would have to be replaced and perhaps also there would have to be a GE. Replacing May can be done faster than holding a GE and it is improbable that the DUP will support a Labour government under Jeremy Corbyn.
4) May goes for a government of national unity, or she chucks it in and her successor does
If this route is successfully taken, the DUP wouldn't get much say in the matter. Or at least their support in Commons divisions would not be needed. They could take NI by force, but that might not get them very far because they'd have few friends internationally and Vladimir Putin wouldn't dare.
Labour would have to be offered BINO. The Tory party would split and the Sun would go absolutely mental. Good option for Tommy Robinson and far-right opposition of an extra-parliamentary kind. The RN (formerly FN) in France and the AFD in Germany would salivate.
5) May pivots to referendum
This is what it's looking like. Her deputy has been discussing the option with referendum supporters in Labour.
Options in the referendum? Remain? Well obviously, yes. It's a clear option. Deal? There would have to be a large number of MPs voting to include it on the ballot who would - assuming they get the chance - vote in the Commons against accepting it. Labour MPs could probably be successfully encouraged to do so for the price of Remain being on the ballot, which it's going to be anyway. So probably, yes. No Deal? When I think about it, yes, probably this will be on the ballot too, because the alternative is the breakup of the Tory party.
6) May does a Major and forces a confidence vote
She can't. Or at least if she tables a motion of confidence and the Speaker accepts it, the FTPA will not come into play, because under the terms of that Act the procedure for dissolving parliament early without a two-thirds majority for a GE begins with a motion of NO confidence, not a motion of confidence. That means that if she lost a vote on "This house has confidence in the government and its proposed withdrawal agreement", Parliament would not be dissolved.
As for a motion of no confidence, using the statutory wording, tabled by the government on government time? Really? And even if the result of a vote is confidence, so what? There would have to be a separate vote on the Deal, which she would lose.
It's bad enough that Tony Blair is doing more to solve the problem than May herself is without her drawing attention to the fact.
Is the next unlikely twist in the Brexit mess the political rehabilitation of Tony Blair?
No it’s not. He’s the worse thing that can happen to the People’s Vote campaign and they need another spokesperson. Sadly some are still quite delusional:
Never would have guessed Hunt was a hardcore leaver !
He isn't. In the referendum he voted, and spoke out, for Remain. Afterwards he argued that A50 shouldn't be triggered until we have the outline of a deal, that the deal should be a soft Brexit based on Norway+, and that this deal should then be put either to a second vote or explicitly in the Tory manifesto to a GE before deciding whether to proceed.
All eminently sensible stuff - and dramatically at variance with his more recent posturing.
Come to think of it in the two years since the vote, the silence of the remain campaign and hard thinking as to why they lost has been deafening. It's been all illegal leave this, Russia leave that. When will prominent remainers start to acknowledge the reasons they lost last time ?
This is one of the reasons I'm not in favour of another referendum.
Best thing for Rejoin is for the country to experience No Deal.
It'll turn the country into EU federalists.
Maybe I should campaign for remain if EUref 2 comes up.
"Yes I agree it's a disgusting betrayal of democracy that we're in this situation, I can't quite believe it myself. However in all probability our overall economic prospects are, ceteris paribus, enhanced by being in the EU particularly in the short to medium term as our economies are inherently intwined within the single market and customs union right now."
I think that'd be the line to win over the floating voters of Worksop or Coventry.
Landslide for Remain.
I think Deal would win against Remain.
Several of my Tory friends have moved from Remain to supporting Mrs May's deal. I think it is mainly down to loyalty to their party, or specifically to Mrs May who they admire for her tenacity. I can't find supporting data in the polls but I believe that Tory supporters overall have become more Leave than they were at the referendum.
But overall there has been a slight movement to Remain. This must mean that Labour Leave supporters are moving to Remain. So under the surface there may be a lot of switching going on.
I think the new Tory Leavers are much more likely to turn out to vote for Mrs May's Deal than the new Labour Remainers to turn out to vote to Remain.
So Deal would win on a differential turnout. I don't know if this makes any sense?
If it was May's deal v Remain I think May's deal would win comfortably. It would be another referendum on immigration and there is only one way that would go.
Then we get another period when a government plays the revolting and embarrassing game of "we don't agree with this crap - we're only doing what our much loved customers the general public tell us". Please please can this come to an end soon.
She can't. Or at least if she tables a motion of confidence and the Speaker accepts it, the FTPA will not come into play, because under the terms of that Act the procedure for dissolving parliament early without a two-thirds majority for a GE begins with a motion of NO confidence, not a motion of confidence. That means that if she lost a vote on "This house has confidence in the government and its proposed withdrawal agreement", Parliament would not be dissolved.
As for a motion of no confidence, using the statutory wording, tabled by the government on government time? Really? And even if the result of a vote is confidence, so what? There would have to be a separate vote on the Deal, which she would lose.
Snipped for brevity.
The meaningful vote itself would have been a confidence matter in the olden days. Another great features of the FTPA - a government can continue on without de facto confidence until such a motion is carried.
Never would have guessed Hunt was a hardcore leaver !
He isn't. In the referendum he voted, and spoke out, for Remain. Afterwards he argued that A50 shouldn't be triggered until we have the outline of a deal, that the deal should be a soft Brexit based on Norway+, and that this deal should then be put either to a second vote or explicitly in the Tory manifesto to a GE before deciding whether to proceed.
All eminently sensible stuff - and dramatically at variance with his more recent posturing.
Opportunists often set their sails to match the weather...
I think the only thing that can stop a referendum now is a group of extreme remainers holding out for the referendum ++ option.
There are major obstacles to holding another referendum before 29/3/19.
The present government won't enact legislation for a referendum and doesn't intend to revoke or delay implementation of A50. Therefore, it would need to be brought down by a VONC, and replaced by one that would do so, at least a few weeks before 29/3/19, which is easier said than done.
The clock is ticking, and running the clock down is clearly May's current strategy.
I find the notion of a PM holding the nation to ransom by running down the clock actually upsetting.
Me too. She is putting her own interests above those of the country. How dare she claim that it is her deal or nothing. She does not have support for it, whether in the Cabinet, her party or the House of Commons. Since the Tories have, stupidly, cemented her in place, the Cabinet need to move against her and either force her out or tell her that her deal is dead and that the only options are an extension of Article 50 for a referendum or a GE.
Holding the country to ransom is an utter disgrace. If other Tories cannot see how toxic this is to their party then they deserve to disappear as a party.
There is no polling evidence it is damaging either TM or the party. Her 47% approval rating in Opinium yesterday was the highest since she was elected in 2016 while Corbyn falls further and further down tne ratings.
In truth everyone is frustrated with each other and we have the most abject politicians in the HOC I can recall
Everyone is shrieking for TM to bring the deal back this week but it is time for cooler heads. Parliament breaks for Xmas this week until the 7th January and as far as I am concerned we need Parliament to be in continuous sitting to deal with the aftermath of the next presentation and meaningful vote in January.
I believe lots of issues will flow during the course of the meaningful vote, especially the amendments, and January will be a defining month
Liam Fox suggesting just now the deal, as it stands, will not go to the HOC
Andrew Gwynne on Marr sums up the utter uselessness of labours position. Not a clue about anything
I agree, it is so pitiful. He dodged every straight question and just used up his interview time wittering about his fantasy unicorn Brexit deal which everyone knows cannot exist.
I think the only thing that can stop a referendum now is a group of extreme remainers holding out for the referendum ++ option.
There are major obstacles to holding another referendum before 29/3/19.
The present government won't enact legislation for a referendum and doesn't intend to revoke or delay implementation of A50. Therefore, it would need to be brought down by a VONC, and replaced by one that would do so, at least a few weeks before 29/3/19, which is easier said than done.
The clock is ticking, and running the clock down is clearly May's current strategy.
I find the notion of a PM holding the nation to ransom by running down the clock actually upsetting.
Me too. She is putting her own interests above those of the country. How dare she claim that it is her deal or nothing. She does not have support for it, whether in the Cabinet, her party or the House of Commons. Since the Tories have, stupidly, cemented her in place, the Cabinet need to move against her and either force her out or tell her that her deal is dead and that the only options are an extension of Article 50 for a referendum or a GE.
Holding the country to ransom is an utter disgrace. If other Tories cannot see how toxic this is to their party then they deserve to disappear as a party.
I cannot see how the clock will be allowed to run down. We are getting in to territory where Brexit will start to impact on people's lives - travel visas and EISTA or today's article in the ST that people's holidays could be effected adversely. The reality might be someway off, but no one likes uncertainity and the possibility of losing hundreds or thousands on a holiday will focus some minds.
Then there is the Business sector - it really cannot wait much longer before serious money has to be spent.
As we approach Brexit, pressures will start to bubble up and all will become unpredictable. At this point, the only guaranteed ways left in the time available are passing May's Deal or a 24 hour session of Parliament to revoke the Withdrawal Act and A50. Emergency sessions have been down before.
Whether Mrs May is PM might not matter. Events, dear lady, events.....
Andrew Gwynne on Marr sums up the utter uselessness of labours position. Not a clue about anything
I agree, it is so pitiful. He dodged every straight question and just used up his interview time wittering about his fantasy unicorn Brexit deal which everyone knows cannot exist.
It's bad enough that Tony Blair is doing more to solve the problem than May herself is without her drawing attention to the fact.
Is the next unlikely twist in the Brexit mess the political rehabilitation of Tony Blair?
No it’s not. He’s the worse thing that can happen to the People’s Vote campaign and they need another spokesperson. Sadly some are still quite delusional:
Never would have guessed Hunt was a hardcore leaver !
He isn't. In the referendum he voted, and spoke out, for Remain. Afterwards he argued that A50 shouldn't be triggered until we have the outline of a deal, that the deal should be a soft Brexit based on Norway+, and that this deal should then be put either to a second vote or explicitly in the Tory manifesto to a GE before deciding whether to proceed.
All eminently sensible stuff - and dramatically at variance with his more recent posturing.
Opportunists often set their sails to match the weather...
There was a time when leaders seems to enjoy telling hard truths to incalcitrant parts of their own parties; indeed it almost seemed compulsory. Although admittedly that was after being elected.
On another note, I think that Jeremy Hunt may be even more transparently self-interested than Boris Johnson. Is there any senior Tory anywhere who does not see Brexit through the prism of their own career opportunities?
If only we had an example to guide us on what happens when an unimpressive minister of state who hides their mediocrity by saying & doing nothing of note then decides they want to become pm.
Holding the country to ransom is an utter disgrace. If other Tories cannot see how toxic this is to their party then they deserve to disappear as a party.
There is no polling evidence it is damaging either TM or the party. Her 47% approval rating in Opinium yesterday was the highest since she was elected in 2016 while Corbyn falls further and further down tne ratings.
In truth everyone is frustrated with each other and we have the most abject politicians in the HOC I can recall
I respect you a great deal as a poster. But you are taking far too much comfort from the polls now. The Tories are making themselves toxic, whatever the opinion polls currently say. There are lots of voters, like me, who might be persuaded to vote Tory to keep out Corbyn. But not anymore. I may vote for the Lib Dems or, a la Meeks, abstain in person. (In truth, in London my vote no longer matters. But in Cumbria where I will likely be living by 2022 the Tory MP has a majority of 2000 so my vote will matter there.)
It does not take many Tory or potential Tory voters to sit on their hands for Labour to win. There are plenty of voters who feel furious about what is happening on the domestic agenda e.g. the continuing mess with the railways and would be OK with Labour doing something about a service which causes a nuisance every working day. Or Universal Credit. If the Tories continue as they are, with the delusions that a no-deal and likely chaotic Brexit will be all right on the night if they can't force agreement on a deal which no-one wants, then they will likely lose a lot of votes, no matter how awful they might think Corbyn is.
I do not see a government trying its best to resolve a difficult issue. I see a woman who has stubbornly and wrongly made this all about her, as if she embodies the country. Well, she doesn't. And if she wants to continue doing her "L'etat c'est moi" act she can push off. Stubbornly doing the wrong thing, stubbornly refusing to listen to what the EU is saying, stubbornly refusing to listen to her MPs who are telling her why they won't vote for this deal is not to be admired. The MPs may be wrong, I dunno, to take the view they do. But if she can't get the votes, she can't and that's her failure.
I no longer have any patience with the Tory party's nervous breakdown. I won't be the only voter who feels this way.
On another note, I think that Jeremy Hunt may be even more transparently self-interested than Boris Johnson. Is there any senior Tory anywhere who does not see Brexit through the prism of their own career opportunities?
If only we had example to guide us on what happens when a unimpressive minister of state who hides their mediocrity by saying & doing nothing of note, and then decides they want to become pm.
Obviously you need to catch up on the last 10 to 12 years of UK politics
Off topic but relevant to last night's discussion; Tesco has replied very promptly to assure me that they don't have any small bits of cheese left over when they are grating their cheese.
She can't. Or at least if she tables a motion of confidence and the Speaker accepts it, the FTPA will not come into play, because under the terms of that Act the procedure for dissolving parliament early without a two-thirds majority for a GE begins with a motion of NO confidence, not a motion of confidence. That means that if she lost a vote on "This house has confidence in the government and its proposed withdrawal agreement", Parliament would not be dissolved.
As for a motion of no confidence, using the statutory wording, tabled by the government on government time? Really? And even if the result of a vote is confidence, so what? There would have to be a separate vote on the Deal, which she would lose.
Snipped for brevity.
The meaningful vote itself would have been a confidence matter in the olden days. Another great features of the FTPA - a government can continue on without de facto confidence until such a motion is carried.
Agreed. When (if) the dust ever settles on this Brexit fiasco, FTPA needs a serious overhaul. Both Brexit and FPTA attest to the risks in our unwritten constitution of having constitutional changes pushed through without out sufficient thought. The idea that constitutional changes should require a 2/3 majority of the legislature or voters or at least an absolute majority of qualified voters is not a bod one.
https://twitter.com/jolyonmaugham/status/1074251476111974402?s=21 Jeremy Corbyn isn’t a liberal centrist, but is in fact a socialist......well I never. This has been self evident for a long time now, and people don’t need to get real about it because they already know this.
https://twitter.com/jolyonmaugham/status/1074251476111974402?s=21 Jeremy Corbyn isn’t a liberal centrist, but is in fact a socialist......well I never. This has been self evident for a long time now, and people don’t need to get real about it because they already know this.
Suspect Maugham doesn't care... all he cares about is stopping Brexit by any means necessary.
Unless the Deal passes, which would almost certainly be due to Labour votes, May would survive a VONC as the DUP and ERG would still back her. It is of she gets her Deal passed she would likely have to prepare for a general election shortly after, maybe late next Spring in which she would still be leader as it would still be well before 2022
She can't. Or at least if she tables a motion of confidence and the Speaker accepts it, the FTPA will not come into play, because under the terms of that Act the procedure for dissolving parliament early without a two-thirds majority for a GE begins with a motion of NO confidence, not a motion of confidence. That means that if she lost a vote on "This house has confidence in the government and its proposed withdrawal agreement", Parliament would not be dissolved.
As for a motion of no confidence, using the statutory wording, tabled by the government on government time? Really? And even if the result of a vote is confidence, so what? There would have to be a separate vote on the Deal, which she would lose.
Snipped for brevity.
The meaningful vote itself would have been a confidence matter in the olden days. Another great features of the FTPA - a government can continue on without de facto confidence until such a motion is carried.
Agreed. When (if) the dust ever settles on this Brexit fiasco, FTPA needs a serious overhaul. Both Brexit and FPTA attest to the risks in our unwritten constitution of having constitutional changes pushed through without out sufficient thought. The idea that constitutional changes should require a 2/3 majority of the legislature or voters or at least an absolute majority of qualified voters is not a bod one.
Thankfully there is a sort of sunset clause in the FTPA.. it needs to be reviewed in a couple of years. Repealing it was in the Tory manifesto, but not sure if the DUP will be on board with that.
Except if EUref2 led to Remain there would be no material change of circumstances enabling the SNP to call induref2 and almost no chance of Yes winning it even if it was called
Holding the country to ransom is an utter disgrace. If other Tories cannot see how toxic this is to their party then they deserve to disappear as a party.
There is no polling evidence it is damaging either TM or the party. Her 47% approval rating in Opinium yesterday was the highest since she was elected in 2016 while Corbyn falls further and further down tne ratings.
In truth everyone is frustrated with each other and we have the most abject politicians in the HOC I can recall
I respect you a great deal as a poster. But you are taking far too much comfort from the polls now. The Tories are making themselves toxic, whatever the opinion polls currently say. There are lots of voters, like me, who might be persuaded to vote Tory to keep out Corbyn. But not anymore. I may vote for the Lib Dems or, a la Meeks, abstain in person. (In truth, in London my vote no longer matters. But in Cumbria where I will likely be living by 2022 the Tory MP has a majority of 2000 so my vote will matter there.)
It does not take many Tory or potential Tory voters to sit on their hands for Labour to win. There are plenty of voters who feel furious about what is happening on the domestic agenda e.g. the continuing mess with the railways and would be OK with Labour doing something about a service which causes a nuisance every working day. Or Universal Credit. If the Tories continue as they are, with the delusions that a no-deal and likely chaotic Brexit will be all right on the night if they can't force agreement on a deal which no-one wants, then they will likely lose a lot of votes, no matter how awful they might think Corbyn is.
I do not see a government trying its best to resolve a difficult issue. I see a woman who has stubbornly and wrongly made this all about her, as if she embodies the country. Well, she doesn't. And if she wants to continue doing her "L'etat c'est moi" act she can push off. Stubbornly doing the wrong thing, stubbornly refusing to listen to what the EU is saying, stubbornly refusing to listen to her MPs who are telling her why they won't vote for this deal is not to be admired. The MPs may be wrong, I dunno, to take the view they do. But if she can't get the votes, she can't and that's her failure.
I no longer have any patience with the Tory party's nervous breakdown. I won't be the only voter who feels this way.
The most likely outcome of an election tomorrow is the Tories largest party but Corbyn PM propped up by the SNP
Holding the country to ransom is an utter disgrace. If other Tories cannot see how toxic this is to their party then they deserve to disappear as a party.
There is no polling evidence it is damaging either TM or the party. Her 47% approval rating in Opinium yesterday was the highest since she was elected in 2016 while Corbyn falls further and further down tne ratings.
In truth everyone is frustrated with each other and we have the most abject politicians in the HOC I can recall
I respect you a great deal as a poster. But you are taking far too much comfort from the polls now. The Tories are making themselves toxic, whatever the opinion polls currently say. There are lots of voters, like me, who might be persuaded to vote Tory to keep out Corbyn. But not anymore. I may vote for the Lib Dems or, a la Meeks, abstain in person. (In truth, in London my vote no longer matters. But in Cumbria where I will likely be living by 2022 the Tory MP has a majority of 2000 so my vote will matter there.)
It does not take many Tory or potential Tory voters to sit on their hands for Labour to win. There are plenty of voters who feel furious about what is happening on the domestic agenda e.g. the continuing mess with the railways and would be OK with Labour doing something about a service which causes a nuisance every working day. Or Universal Credit. If the Tories continue as they are, with the delusions that a no-deal and likely chaotic Brexit will be all right on the night if they can't force agreement on a deal which no-one wants, then they will likely lose a lot of votes, no matter how awful they might think Corbyn is.
I do not see a government trying its best to resolve a difficult issue. I see a woman who has stubbornly and wrongly made this all about her, as if she embodies the country. Well, she doesn't. And if she wants to continue doing her "L'etat c'est moi" act she can push off. Stubbornly doing the wrong thing, stubbornly refusing to listen to what the EU is saying, stubbornly refusing to listen to her MPs who are telling her why they won't vote for this deal is not to be admired. The MPs may be wrong, I dunno, to take the view they do. But if she can't get the votes, she can't and that's her failure.
I no longer have any patience with the Tory party's nervous breakdown. I won't be the only voter who feels this way.
It's a combination of sympathy for May's personal predicament (from people not always watching closely enough to see the extent of her own making) and Labour's equally risible offering a la Rawnsley.
I cannot see how the clock will be allowed to run down. We are getting in to territory where Brexit will start to impact on people's lives - travel visas and EISTA or today's article in the ST that people's holidays could be effected adversely. The reality might be someway off, but no one likes uncertainity and the possibility of losing hundreds or thousands on a holiday will focus some minds.
Then there is the Business sector - it really cannot wait much longer before serious money has to be spent.
As we approach Brexit, pressures will start to bubble up and all will become unpredictable. At this point, the only guaranteed ways left in the time available are passing May's Deal or a 24 hour session of Parliament to revoke the Withdrawal Act and A50. Emergency sessions have been down before.
Whether Mrs May is PM might not matter. Events, dear lady, events.....
Before we were in the EU I travelled with my parents back and forth to Italy all the time. No visa or travel document, other than a passport, was needed. When we came back to Blighty I had to go through the "Aliens" channel with my Mamma as I was travelling on her passport.
Now we will need a 7 euro travel document to do what we have become used to doing freely. Not much money, I agree, and the same as for Australians and Canadians. But, still, we have made ourselves a "third party" (a polite version of the "Aliens" channel of my childhood) on our own home Continent. How can this be an improvement? Is this the sort of country we want to be?
I will not be affected as I have my Irish nationality. But in order to travel freely as I have done all my life I am forced not to use my British nationality (of which I am proud) on my own continent. A small thing maybe but somehow emblematic to me of the mess this has turned into. And, naive I may have been, I never thought it would come to this, even after the referendum result was known.
https://twitter.com/jolyonmaugham/status/1074251476111974402?s=21 Jeremy Corbyn isn’t a liberal centrist, but is in fact a socialist......well I never. This has been self evident for a long time now, and people don’t need to get real about it because they already know this.
Suspect Maugham doesn't care... all he cares about is stopping Brexit by any means necessary.
Who can blame him? It looks like the EU is a great lump of political inertia that helps damp out the excesses of the political extremes. We need EU membership - it keeps the lunatics in check.
I respect you a great deal as a poster. But you are taking far too much comfort from the polls now. The Tories are making themselves toxic, whatever the opinion polls currently say. There are lots of voters, like me, who might be persuaded to vote Tory to keep out Corbyn. But not anymore. I may vote for the Lib Dems or, a la Meeks, abstain in person. (In truth, in London my vote no longer matters. But in Cumbria where I will likely be living by 2022 the Tory MP has a majority of 2000 so my vote will matter there.)
It does not take many Tory or potential Tory voters to sit on their hands for Labour to win. There are plenty of voters who feel furious about what is happening on the domestic agenda e.g. the continuing mess with the railways and would be OK with Labour doing something about a service which causes a nuisance every working day. Or Universal Credit. If the Tories continue as they are, with the delusions that a no-deal and likely chaotic Brexit will be all right on the night if they can't force agreement on a deal which no-one wants, then they will likely lose a lot of votes, no matter how awful they might think Corbyn is.
I do not see a government trying its best to resolve a difficult issue. I see a woman who has stubbornly and wrongly made this all about her, as if she embodies the country. Well, she doesn't. And if she wants to continue doing her "L'etat c'est moi" act she can push off. Stubbornly doing the wrong thing, stubbornly refusing to listen to what the EU is saying, stubbornly refusing to listen to her MPs who are telling her why they won't vote for this deal is not to be admired. The MPs may be wrong, I dunno, to take the view they do. But if she can't get the votes, she can't and that's her failure.
I no longer have any patience with the Tory party's nervous breakdown. I won't be the only voter who feels this way.
The most likely outcome of an election tomorrow is the Tories largest party but Corbyn PM propped up by the SNP
I think you underestimate the chances, the longer this is going on, of Labour winning an outright majority.
https://twitter.com/jolyonmaugham/status/1074251476111974402?s=21 Jeremy Corbyn isn’t a liberal centrist, but is in fact a socialist......well I never. This has been self evident for a long time now, and people don’t need to get real about it because they already know this.
Suspect Maugham doesn't care... all he cares about is stopping Brexit by any means necessary.
Who can blame him? It looks like the EU is a great lump of political inertia that helps damp out the excesses of the political extremes. We need EU membership - it keeps the lunatics in check.
You seriously think that? Remind me what is happening in other EU countries like Hungary and Austria.
I respect you a great deal as a poster. But you are taking far too much comfort from the polls now. The Tories are making themselves toxic, whatever the opinion polls currently say. There are lots of voters, like me, who might be persuaded to vote Tory to keep out Corbyn. But not anymore. I may vote for the Lib Dems or, a la Meeks, abstain in person. (In truth, in London my vote no longer matters. But in Cumbria where I will likely be living by 2022 the Tory MP has a majority of 2000 so my vote n is.
I do not see a government trying its best to resolve a difficult issue. I see a woman who has stubbornly and wrongly made this all about her, as if she embodies the country. Well, she doesn't. And if she wants to continue doing her "L'etat c'est moi" act she can push off. Stubbornly doing the wrong thing, stubbornly refusing to listen to what the EU is saying, stubbornly refusing to listen to her MPs who are telling her why they won't vote for this deal is not to be admired. The MPs may be wrong, I dunno, to take the view they do. But if she can't get the votes, she can't and that's her failure.
I no longer have any patience with the Tory party's nervous breakdown. I won't be the only voter who feels this way.
The most likely outcome of an election tomorrow is the Tories largest party but Corbyn PM propped up by the SNP
I think you underestimate the chances, the longer this is going on, of Labour winning an outright majority.
No I don't, I cannot tell you the antipathy towards Corbyn of the core Tory vote 'Marxist' a 'Communist' etc just some of the things I hear on the door about him even if there is little enthusiasm for the Tories there is real fear of Corbyn amongst the Tories vote which is why there may be some defections to UKIP at most but there will be very little Tory to Labour net movement as long as Jeremy Corbyn leads the Labour Party.
In fact I cannot see Corbyn ever winning a majority in England no matter the circumstances, if Corbyn is to become PM it will be due to Labour MPs from Wales and SNP MPs from Scotland. Do not forget the Tories won a majority of 59 at the last general election in England but no majority at all across the UK
https://twitter.com/jolyonmaugham/status/1074251476111974402?s=21 Jeremy Corbyn isn’t a liberal centrist, but is in fact a socialist......well I never. This has been self evident for a long time now, and people don’t need to get real about it because they already know this.
Suspect Maugham doesn't care... all he cares about is stopping Brexit by any means necessary.
Democracy isn't a partial thing. If Corbyn is elected, let him govern as he pleases. The idea that we need a supranational body to restrain a socialist government is utterly repugnant.
I respect you a great deal as a poster. But you are taking far too much comfort from the polls now.
Big_G seems like a nice person, but he is a party loyalist and I tend to discount what party loyalists post since they often spout the official line whatever it is.
I no longer have any patience with the Tory party's nervous breakdown. I won't be the only voter who feels this way.
You are not the only one. The Brexit myopia and Mrs May's tin ear are ensuring that the Party's reputation is being destroyed. God help them if a competent politician arises in opposition to them. Their aging support base is slowly shuffling off this mortal coil and that will not help either. They are giving nothing to the younger generations that would garner support - quite the opposite.
The Tory Party seems intent on its own destruction.
https://twitter.com/jolyonmaugham/status/1074251476111974402?s=21 Jeremy Corbyn isn’t a liberal centrist, but is in fact a socialist......well I never. This has been self evident for a long time now, and people don’t need to get real about it because they already know this.
Suspect Maugham doesn't care... all he cares about is stopping Brexit by any means necessary.
Democracy isn't a partial thing. If Corbyn is elected, let him govern as he pleases. The idea that we need a supranational body to restrain a socialist government is utterly repugnant.
I respect you a great deal as a poster. But you are taking far too much comfort from the polls now.
Big_G seems like a nice person, but he is a party loyalist and I tend to discount what party loyalists post since they often spout the official line whatever it is.
I no longer have any patience with the Tory party's nervous breakdown. I won't be the only voter who feels this way.
You are not the only one. The Brexit myopia and Mrs May's tin ear are ensuring that the Party's reputation is being destroyed. God help them if a competent politician arises in opposition to them. Their aging support base is slowly shuffling off this mortal coil and that will not help either. They are giving nothing to the younger generations that would garner support - quite the opposite.
The Tory Party seems intent on its own destruction.
More of this Tories dying off nonsense. How many generations has this been spouted for?
https://twitter.com/jolyonmaugham/status/1074251476111974402?s=21 Jeremy Corbyn isn’t a liberal centrist, but is in fact a socialist......well I never. This has been self evident for a long time now, and people don’t need to get real about it because they already know this.
Suspect Maugham doesn't care... all he cares about is stopping Brexit by any means necessary.
Who can blame him? It looks like the EU is a great lump of political inertia that helps damp out the excesses of the political extremes. We need EU membership - it keeps the lunatics in check.
You seriously think that? Remind me what is happening in other EU countries like Hungary and Austria.
Think what might be happening there is there was no restraint. Can you recall the last unrestrained Austrian?
As for the Hungarians, there is a lot of very conservative social inertia to get past. It will take time but you have to start somewhere.
I respect you a great deal as a poster. But you are taking far too much comfort from the polls now.
Big_G seems like a nice person, but he is a party loyalist and I tend to discount what party loyalists post since they often spout the official line whatever it is.
I no longer have any patience with the Tory party's nervous breakdown. I won't be the only voter who feels this way.
You are not the only one. The Brexit myopia and Mrs May's tin ear are ensuring that the Party's reputation is being destroyed. God help them if a competent politician arises in opposition to them. Their aging support base is slowly shuffling off this mortal coil and that will not help either. They are giving nothing to the younger generations that would garner support - quite the opposite.
The Tory Party seems intent on its own destruction.
More of this Tories dying off nonsense. How many generations has this been spouted for?
Indeed. The Tories have not won the 18 to 24 vote since 1983
https://twitter.com/jolyonmaugham/status/1074251476111974402?s=21 Jeremy Corbyn isn’t a liberal centrist, but is in fact a socialist......well I never. This has been self evident for a long time now, and people don’t need to get real about it because they already know this.
Suspect Maugham doesn't care... all he cares about is stopping Brexit by any means necessary.
Who can blame him? It looks like the EU is a great lump of political inertia that helps damp out the excesses of the political extremes. We need EU membership - it keeps the lunatics in check.
You seriously think that? Remind me what is happening in other EU countries like Hungary and Austria.
Think what might be happening there is there was no restraint. Can you recall the last unrestrained Austrian?
As for the Hungarians, there is a lot of very conservative social inertia to get past. It will take time but you have to start somewhere.
It's only the EU that's keeping another Adolf Hitler from rising up in Austria? Okay.
The EU's clearly not doing a very good job of keeping the extremists in check. And there is no evidence they are needed to do that in the UK.
I respect you a great deal as a poster. But you are taking far too much comfort from the polls now.
Big_G seems like a nice person, but he is a party loyalist and I tend to discount what party loyalists post since they often spout the official line whatever it is.
I no longer have any patience with the Tory party's nervous breakdown. I won't be the only voter who feels this way.
You are not the only one. The Brexit myopia and Mrs May's tin ear are ensuring that the Party's reputation is being destroyed. God help them if a competent politician arises in opposition to them. Their aging support base is slowly shuffling off this mortal coil and that will not help either. They are giving nothing to the younger generations that would garner support - quite the opposite.
The Tory Party seems intent on its own destruction.
More of this Tories dying off nonsense. How many generations has this been spouted for?
They are like the walking Dead Rob, we are to be tortured by them forever.
I respect you a great deal as a poster. But you are taking far too much comfort from the polls now.
Big_G seems like a nice person, but he is a party loyalist and I tend to discount what party loyalists post since they often spout the official line whatever it is.
I no longer have any patience with the Tory party's nervous breakdown. I won't be the only voter who feels this way.
You are not the only one. The Brexit myopia and Mrs May's tin ear are ensuring that the Party's reputation is being destroyed. God help them if a competent politician arises in opposition to them. Their aging support base is slowly shuffling off this mortal coil and that will not help either. They are giving nothing to the younger generations that would garner support - quite the opposite.
The Tory Party seems intent on its own destruction.
More of this Tories dying off nonsense. How many generations has this been spouted for?
The geriatric members of the Ruislip Tory Association just interviewed on SP weren't exactly an advert for the party - although one of them did say "we need some younger people, but there aren't any!".
Under MacMillan and under Thatcher the Tories managed to reinvent themselves to fit the modern era, and it was clear Cameron had something similar in mind when he took up his job. But it's not happening now; indeed both Brexit and the housing crisis (plus arguably student finance) are killing the Tories with younger people.
Before we were in the EU I travelled with my parents back and forth to Italy all the time. No visa or travel document, other than a passport, was needed. When we came back to Blighty I had to go through the "Aliens" channel with my Mamma as I was travelling on her passport.
Now we will need a 7 euro travel document to do what we have become used to doing freely. Not much money, I agree, and the same as for Australians and Canadians. But, still, we have made ourselves a "third party" (a polite version of the "Aliens" channel of my childhood) on our own home Continent. How can this be an improvement? Is this the sort of country we want to be?
I will not be affected as I have my Irish nationality. But in order to travel freely as I have done all my life I am forced not to use my British nationality (of which I am proud) on my own continent. A small thing maybe but somehow emblematic to me of the mess this has turned into. And, naive I may have been, I never thought it would come to this, even after the referendum result was known.
Sadly, it was always going that way post-Brexit. The EU is very in/out. Like you I can travel on my Irish passport. Unlike you, I used to be proud of being British but the reduction of the UK to a political shambles with overtones of xenophobia has destroyed that sense of national pride. I have two passports and I feel stateless. Brexit has made me a Citizen of Nowhere and Mrs May is ensuring the label sticks. It is why I am so pissed off with Brexit.
More of this Tories dying off nonsense. How many generations has this been spouted for?
The tories have had to adopt different and increasingly progressive policy positions to survive (eg marriage equality, climate change) to survive. The old attitudes and policies of the tories have, in fact, died off. Stark terror of European integration will be another antediluvian position that will be extirpated in the party.
More of this Tories dying off nonsense. How many generations has this been spouted for?
The tories have had to adopt different and increasingly progressive policy positions to survive (eg marriage equality, climate change) to survive. The old attitudes and policies of the tories have, in fact, died off. Stark terror of European integration will be another antediluvian position that will be extirpated in the party.
More of this Tories dying off nonsense. How many generations has this been spouted for?
The tories have had to adopt different and increasingly progressive policy positions to survive (eg marriage equality, climate change) to survive. The old attitudes and policies of the tories have, in fact, died off. Stark terror of European integration will be another antediluvian position that will be extirpated in the party.
Except if EUref2 led to Remain there would be no material change of circumstances enabling the SNP to call induref2 and almost no chance of Yes winning it even if it was called
The oracle has spoken , we will remain a vassal state.
I respect you a great deal as a poster. But you are taking far too much comfort from the polls now.
Big_G seems like a nice person, but he is a party loyalist and I tend to discount what party loyalists post since they often spout the official line whatever it is.
I no longer have any patience with the Tory party's nervous breakdown. I won't be the only voter who feels this way.
You are not the only one. The Brexit myopia and Mrs May's tin ear are ensuring that the Party's reputation is being destroyed. God help them if a competent politician arises in opposition to them. Their aging support base is slowly shuffling off this mortal coil and that will not help either. They are giving nothing to the younger generations that would garner support - quite the opposite.
The Tory Party seems intent on its own destruction.
More of this Tories dying off nonsense. How many generations has this been spouted for?
They are like the walking Dead Rob, we are to be tortured by them forever.
Dispiriting, but better than the lazy assumption they'll just die off. No party will last forever but something offering the same to the same people will.
https://twitter.com/jolyonmaugham/status/1074251476111974402?s=21 Jeremy Corbyn isn’t a liberal centrist, but is in fact a socialist......well I never. This has been self evident for a long time now, and people don’t need to get real about it because they already know this.
Suspect Maugham doesn't care... all he cares about is stopping Brexit by any means necessary.
Who can blame him? It looks like the EU is a great lump of political inertia that helps damp out the excesses of the political extremes. We need EU membership - it keeps the lunatics in check.
You seriously think that? Remind me what is happening in other EU countries like Hungary and Austria.
Think what might be happening there is there was no restraint. Can you recall the last unrestrained Austrian?
As for the Hungarians, there is a lot of very conservative social inertia to get past. It will take time but you have to start somewhere.
It's only the EU that's keeping another Adolf Hitler from rising up in Austria? Okay.
The EU's clearly not doing a very good job of keeping the extremists in check. And there is no evidence they are needed to do that in the UK.
Perhaps you might wish to recall one of the EU (EEC at the time) founding objectives? To stop the near continuous wars that have plagued Europe for centuries. So far, the results look good.
I cannot see how the clock will be allowed to run down. We are getting in to territory where Brexit will start to impact on people's lives - travel visas and EISTA or today's article in the ST that people's holidays could be effected adversely. The reality might be someway off, but no one likes uncertainity and the possibility of losing hundreds or thousands on a holiday will focus some minds.
Then there is the Business sector - it really cannot wait much longer before serious money has to be spent.
As we approach Brexit, pressures will start to bubble up and all will become unpredictable. At this point, the only guaranteed ways left in the time available are passing May's Deal or a 24 hour session of Parliament to revoke the Withdrawal Act and A50. Emergency sessions have been down before.
Whether Mrs May is PM might not matter. Events, dear lady, events.....
Before we were in the EU I travelled with my parents back and forth to Italy all the time. No visa or travel document, other than a passport, was needed. When we came back to Blighty I had to go through the "Aliens" channel with my Mamma as I was travelling on her passport.
Now we will need a 7 euro travel document to do what we have become used to doing freely. Not much money, I agree, and the same as for Australians and Canadians. But, still, we have made ourselves a "third party" (a polite version of the "Aliens" channel of my childhood) on our own home Continent. How can this be an improvement? Is this the sort of country we want to be?
I will not be affected as I have my Irish nationality. But in order to travel freely as I have done all my life I am forced not to use my British nationality (of which I am proud) on my own continent. A small thing maybe but somehow emblematic to me of the mess this has turned into. And, naive I may have been, I never thought it would come to this, even after the referendum result was known.
The worrying thing is that a No Deal Brexit could be so much worse than that - food, medicine and other vital supplies not being able to get through because of sheer ill-preparedness.
Perhaps it would be an idea to extend the deadline for a few months, on condition we gave "No Deal" a try at the end of March, and saw how how it worked out.
More of this Tories dying off nonsense. How many generations has this been spouted for?
The tories have had to adopt different and increasingly progressive policy positions to survive (eg marriage equality, climate change) to survive. The old attitudes and policies of the tories have, in fact, died off. Stark terror of European integration will be another antediluvian position that will be extirpated in the party.
Same goes for every party, surely?
Yes, even UKIP will have to moderate their Europhobia.
https://twitter.com/jolyonmaugham/status/1074251476111974402?s=21 Jeremy Corbyn isn’t a liberal centrist, but is in fact a socialist......well I never. This has been self evident for a long time now, and people don’t need to get real about it because they already know this.
Suspect Maugham doesn't care... all he cares about is stopping Brexit by any means necessary.
Who can blame him? It looks like the EU is a great lump of political inertia that helps damp out the excesses of the political extremes. We need EU membership - it keeps the lunatics in check.
You seriously think that? Remind me what is happening in other EU countries like Hungary and Austria.
Think what might be happening there is there was no restraint. Can you recall the last unrestrained Austrian?
As for the Hungarians, there is a lot of very conservative social inertia to get past. It will take time but you have to start somewhere.
It's only the EU that's keeping another Adolf Hitler from rising up in Austria? Okay.
The EU's clearly not doing a very good job of keeping the extremists in check. And there is no evidence they are needed to do that in the UK.
The EU has a nice dream of international cooperation and combining the best part of everyone to make something great.
It's a better sell than 'you can't control your nutjobs so let us do it'
I no longer have any patience with the Tory party's nervous breakdown. I won't be the only voter who feels this way.
The most likely outcome of an election tomorrow is the Tories largest party but Corbyn PM propped up by the SNP
I think you underestimate the chances, the longer this is going on, of Labour winning an outright majority.
No I don't, I cannot tell you the antipathy towards Corbyn of the core Tory vote 'Marxist' a 'Communist' etc just some of the things I hear on the door about him even if there is little enthusiasm for the Tories there is real fear of Corbyn amongst the Tories vote which is why there may be some defections to UKIP at most but there will be very little Tory to Labour net movement as long as Jeremy Corbyn leads the Labour Party.
In fact I cannot see Corbyn ever winning a majority in England no matter the circumstances, if Corbyn is to become PM it will be due to Labour MPs from Wales and SNP MPs from Scotland. Do not forget the Tories won a majority of 59 at the last general election in England but no majority at all across the UK
"the Tory core vote"
What about those voters, like me, who don't fit into that category?
That is why I think you are wrong. I despise Corbyn and what he stands for. But I know plenty who don't feel that strongly, who think that the Tories need a kicking and that Labour are the ones to do it, despite Corbyn, plenty who will vote for him "holding their nose" and plenty who won't vote at all.
And if the Tories lead us to a disastrous Brexit, their claims that Corbyn will create Socialist chaos, will ring very hollow indeed.
Except if EUref2 led to Remain there would be no material change of circumstances enabling the SNP to call induref2 and almost no chance of Yes winning it even if it was called
The oracle has spoken , we will remain a vassal state.
It might well be the case Malcolm. After this debacle, how many more referenda can we cope with?
I respect you a great deal as a poster. But you are taking far too much comfort from the polls now.
Big_G seems like a nice person, but he is a party loyalist and I tend to discount what party loyalists post since they often spout the official line whatever it is.
I no longer have any patience with the Tory party's nervous breakdown. I won't be the only voter who feels this way.
You are not the only one. The Brexit myopia and Mrs May's tin ear are ensuring that the Party's reputation is being destroyed. God help them if a competent politician arises in opposition to them. Their aging support base is slowly shuffling off this mortal coil and that will not help either. They are giving nothing to the younger generations that would garner support - quite the opposite.
The Tory Party seems intent on its own destruction.
More of this Tories dying off nonsense. How many generations has this been spouted for?
The geriatric members of the Ruislip Tory Association just interviewed on SP weren't exactly an advert for the party - although one of them did say "we need some younger people, but there aren't any!".
Under MacMillan and under Thatcher the Tories managed to reinvent themselves to fit the modern era, and it was clear Cameron had something similar in mind when he took up his job. But it's not happening now; indeed both Brexit and the housing crisis (plus arguably student finance) are killing the Tories with younger people.
Young people never vote Tory except in landslide years, even Ed Miliband won under 35s.
https://twitter.com/jolyonmaugham/status/1074251476111974402?s=21 Jeremy Corbyn isn’t a liberal centrist, but is in fact a socialist......well I never. This has been self evident for a long time now, and people don’t need to get real about it because they already know this.
Suspect Maugham doesn't care... all he cares about is stopping Brexit by any means necessary.
Who can blame him? It looks like the EU is a great lump of political inertia that helps damp out the excesses of the political extremes. We need EU membership - it keeps the lunatics in check.
You seriously think that? Remind me what is happening in other EU countries like Hungary and Austria.
Think what might be happening there is there was no restraint. Can you recall the last unrestrained Austrian?
As for the Hungarians, there is a lot of very conservative social inertia to get past. It will take time but you have to start somewhere.
It's only the EU that's keeping another Adolf Hitler from rising up in Austria? Okay.
The EU's clearly not doing a very good job of keeping the extremists in check. And there is no evidence they are needed to do that in the UK.
Perhaps you might wish to recall one of the EU (EEC at the time) founding objectives? To stop the near continuous wars that have plagued Europe for centuries. So far, the results look good.
As you are well aware, correlation does not imply causation.
As if we need permission from those clowns. It will be happening whether they agree or not.
Going for a unilateral declaration Malc?
Would not bother me , big thing is that these clowns in Westminster cannot dictate with their pathetic "Now is not the Time". It is a decision for Scotland whether they want one or not , the population voted the SNP under that remit. It is supposed to be a union , we are not supposed to be a colony even though treated like one.
Before we were in the EU I travelled with my parents back and forth to Italy all the time. No visa or travel document, other than a passport, was needed. When we came back to Blighty I had to go through the "Aliens" channel with my Mamma as I was travelling on her passport.
Now we will need a 7 euro travel document to do what we have become used to doing freely. Not much money, I agree, and the same as for Australians and Canadians. But, still, we have made ourselves a "third party" (a polite version of the "Aliens" channel of my childhood) on our own home Continent. How can this be an improvement? Is this the sort of country we want to be?
I will not be affected as I have my Irish nationality. But in order to travel freely as I have done all my life I am forced not to use my British nationality (of which I am proud) on my own continent. A small thing maybe but somehow emblematic to me of the mess this has turned into. And, naive I may have been, I never thought it would come to this, even after the referendum result was known.
Sadly, it was always going that way post-Brexit. The EU is very in/out. Like you I can travel on my Irish passport. Unlike you, I used to be proud of being British but the reduction of the UK to a political shambles with overtones of xenophobia has destroyed that sense of national pride. I have two passports and I feel stateless. Brexit has made me a Citizen of Nowhere and Mrs May is ensuring the label sticks. It is why I am so pissed off with Brexit.
I feel pissed off like you. But I still feel proud of the best of Britain, of what Britain can be once the jackasses are out of the way. I am not going to give up on my country, where I have lived a great deal of my life, where my children were born. I am not going to let the Farages and Banks and Rees-Moggs and Corbyns ruin or define my country.
As if we need permission from those clowns. It will be happening whether they agree or not.
Going for a unilateral declaration Malc?
Would not bother me , big thing is that these clowns in Westminster cannot dictate with their pathetic "Now is not the Time". It is a decision for Scotland whether they want one or not , the population voted the SNP under that remit. It is supposed to be a union , we are not supposed to be a colony even though treated like one.
It's a union with very centralised powers, not a federation of equal states.
As if we need permission from those clowns. It will be happening whether they agree or not.
Going for a unilateral declaration Malc?
Would not bother me , big thing is that these clowns in Westminster cannot dictate with their pathetic "Now is not the Time". It is a decision for Scotland whether they want one or not , the population voted the SNP under that remit. It is supposed to be a union , we are not supposed to be a colony even though treated like one.
If England and Wales backed No Deal hard Brexit and tried to drag Scotland out with it then indyref2 May be inevitable, if the whole UK Remained in the EU anyway there would be no new grounds for indyref2 as even the SNP have effectively admitted
https://twitter.com/jolyonmaugham/status/1074251476111974402?s=21 Jeremy Corbyn isn’t a liberal centrist, but is in fact a socialist......well I never. This has been self evident for a long time now, and people don’t need to get real about it because they already know this.
Suspect Maugham doesn't care... all he cares about is stopping Brexit by any means necessary.
Democracy isn't a partial thing. If Corbyn is elected, let him govern as he pleases. The idea that we need a supranational body to restrain a socialist government is utterly repugnant.
What do you think the European Convention on Human Rights is, other than a supranational Convention to restrain extremist governments? Or do you want to get rid of that as well?
https://twitter.com/jolyonmaugham/status/1074251476111974402?s=21 Jeremy Corbyn isn’t a liberal centrist, but is in fact a socialist......well I never. This has been self evident for a long time now, and people don’t need to get real about it because they already know this.
Suspect Maugham doesn't care... all he cares about is stopping Brexit by any means necessary.
Who can blame him? It looks like the EU is a great lump of political inertia that helps damp out the excesses of the political extremes. We need EU membership - it keeps the lunatics in check.
You seriously think that? Remind me what is happening in other EU countries like Hungary and Austria.
Think what might be happening there is there was no restraint. Can you recall the last unrestrained Austrian?
As for the Hungarians, there is a lot of very conservative social inertia to get past. It will take time but you have to start somewhere.
It's only the EU that's keeping another Adolf Hitler from rising up in Austria? Okay.
The EU's clearly not doing a very good job of keeping the extremists in check. And there is no evidence they are needed to do that in the UK.
Perhaps you might wish to recall one of the EU (EEC at the time) founding objectives? To stop the near continuous wars that have plagued Europe for centuries. So far, the results look good.
I think the existence of NATO and the Warsaw Pact has a far greater claim on promoting European unity & peace. Nothing like a common enemy to rally the troops. The EU owes its existence to the collapse of the Soviets and their client states.
However, at this point, none of the Western European powers could sustain a classic high intensity combat for more than a few days, nor do they have the ability to put boot on the ground in any meaningful way.
I no longer have any patience with the Tory party's nervous breakdown. I won't be the only voter who feels this way.
The most likely outcome of an election tomorrow is the Tories largest party but Corbyn PM propped up by the SNP
I think you underestimate the chances, the longer this is going on, of Labour winning an outright majority.
No I don't, I cannot tell you the antipathy towards Corbyn of the core Tory vote 'Marxist' a 'Communist' etc just some of the things I hear on the door about him even if there is little enthusiasm for the Tories there is real fear of Corbyn amongst the Tories vote which is why there may be some defections to UKIP at most but there will be very little Tory to Labour net movement as long as Jeremy Corbyn leads the Labour Party.
In fact I cannot see Corbyn ever winning a majority in England no matter the circumstances, if Corbyn is to become PM it will be due to Labour MPs from Wales and SNP MPs from Scotland. Do not forget the Tories won a majority of 59 at the last general election in England but no majority at all across the UK
"the Tory core vote"
What about those voters, like me, who don't fit into that category?
That is why I think you are wrong. I despise Corbyn and what he stands for. But I know plenty who don't feel that strongly, who think that the Tories need a kicking and that Labour are the ones to do it, despite Corbyn, plenty who will vote for him "holding their nose" and plenty who won't vote at all.
And if the Tories lead us to a disastrous Brexit, their claims that Corbyn will create Socialist chaos, will ring very hollow indeed.
You are obviously not even committed to the Tories now when at least around 38 to 40% of voters are clearly committed to the Tories in the polls.
You also forget that the vast majority of the Tory vote is made up of Leavers now, even under a No Deal scenario very few of them would switch to Labour and Tory Remainers would be more likely to vote for the LDs than Corbyn
As if we need permission from those clowns. It will be happening whether they agree or not.
Going for a unilateral declaration Malc?
Would not bother me , big thing is that these clowns in Westminster cannot dictate with their pathetic "Now is not the Time". It is a decision for Scotland whether they want one or not , the population voted the SNP under that remit. It is supposed to be a union , we are not supposed to be a colony even though treated like one.
Not a colony. Just not an independent state. Personally I think there was a good argument that what type of brexit we get will be very relevant to if people support independence and so the question should wait, but equally if the Scottish parliament wants another vote it is not reasonable to simply say no or fob them off.
https://twitter.com/jolyonmaugham/status/1074251476111974402?s=21 Jeremy Corbyn isn’t a liberal centrist, but is in fact a socialist......well I never. This has been self evident for a long time now, and people don’t need to get real about it because they already know this.
Suspect Maugham doesn't care... all he cares about is stopping Brexit by any means necessary.
Democracy isn't a partial thing. If Corbyn is elected, let him govern as he pleases. The idea that we need a supranational body to restrain a socialist government is utterly repugnant.
What do you think the European Convention on Human Rights is, other than a supranational Convention to restrain extremist governments? Or do you want to get rid of that as well?
I believe (though please do correct me if I'm wrong) that the ECHR was incorporated into the HRA '98? Our domestic laws on human rights are (again, correct me if I'm wrong) a superset of the ECHR.
Do you have reason to believe that any mainstream UK political party wishes to revoke our human rights?
You are obviously not even committed to the Tories now when at least around 38 to 40% of voters are clearly committed to the Tories in the polls.
You also forget that the vast majority of the Tory vote is made up of Leavers now, even under a No Deal scenario very few of them would switch to Labour and Tory Remainers would be more likely to vote for the LDs than Corbyn
I think you over emphasise how committed people are. I do find myself disagreeing with cyclefree on how angry to get at specific actions, as I interpret the reasoning differently, but you're pretty complacent about potential effect on the Tories. Dislike of Corbyn is still there but the fear might be less. Not by much, but it doesnt need to be by much.
I think you underestimate the chances, the longer this is going on, of Labour winning an outright majority.
No I don't, I cannot tell you the antipathy towards Corbyn of the core Tory vote 'Marxist' a 'Communist' etc just some of the things I hear on the door about him even if there is little enthusiasm for the Tories there is real fear of Corbyn amongst the Tories vote which is why there may be some defections to UKIP at most but there will be very little Tory to Labour net movement as long as Jeremy Corbyn leads the Labour Party.
In fact I cannot see Corbyn ever winning a majority in England no matter the circumstances, if Corbyn is to become PM it will be due to Labour MPs from Wales and SNP MPs from Scotland. Do not forget the Tories won a majority of 59 at the last general election in England but no majority at all across the UK
"the Tory core vote"
What about those voters, like me, who don't fit into that category?
That is why I think you are wrong. I despise Corbyn and what he stands for. But I know plenty who don't feel that strongly, who think that the Tories need a kicking and that Labour are the ones to do it, despite Corbyn, plenty who will vote for him "holding their nose" and plenty who won't vote at all.
And if the Tories lead us to a disastrous Brexit, their claims that Corbyn will create Socialist chaos, will ring very hollow indeed.
You are obviously not even committed to the Tories now when at least around 38 to 40% of voters are clearly committed to the Tories in the polls.
You also forget that the vast majority of the Tory vote is made up of Leavers now, even under a No Deal scenario very few of them would switch to Labour and Tory Remainers would be more likely to vote for the LDs than Corbyn
Damn right I'm not committed to the Tories. You are only talking to and about the core vote. That won't win you an election. As 2017 showed you.
But keep talking to yourself if it makes you feel better. Meanwhile 2 votes in a Tory marginal seat won for the first time by the Tories in decades in 2017 are up for grabs and your party is doing everything it can to avoid getting them.
Before we were in the EU I travelled with my parents back and forth to Italy all the time. No visa or travel document, other than a passport, was needed. When we came back to Blighty I had to go through the "Aliens" channel with my Mamma as I was travelling on her passport.
Now we will need a 7 euro travel document to do what we have become used to doing freely. Not much money, I agree, and the same as for Australians and Canadians. But, still, we have made ourselves a "third party" (a polite version of the "Aliens" channel of my childhood) on our own home Continent. How can this be an improvement? Is this the sort of country we want to be?
I will not be affected as I have my Irish nationality. But in order to travel freely as I have done all my life I am forced not to use my British nationality (of which I am proud) on my own continent. A small thing maybe but somehow emblematic to me of the mess this has turned into. And, naive I may have been, I never thought it would come to this, even after the referendum result was known.
Sadly, it was always going that way post-Brexit. The EU is very in/out. Like you I can travel on my Irish passport. Unlike you, I used to be proud of being British but the reduction of the UK to a political shambles with overtones of xenophobia has destroyed that sense of national pride. I have two passports and I feel stateless. Brexit has made me a Citizen of Nowhere and Mrs May is ensuring the label sticks. It is why I am so pissed off with Brexit.
I feel pissed off like you. But I still feel proud of the best of Britain, of what Britain can be once the jackasses are out of the way. I am not going to give up on my country, where I have lived a great deal of my life, where my children were born. I am not going to let the Farages and Banks and Rees-Moggs and Corbyns ruin or define my country.
I am doing my best to resist, but at the moment it feels like watching a slow motion car crash. All I can do is voice my opposition to Brexit in all its forms because that is what is destroying us and giving cover to extremists.
https://twitter.com/jolyonmaugham/status/1074251476111974402?s=21 Jeremy Corbyn isn’t a liberal centrist, but is in fact a socialist......well I never. This has been self evident for a long time now, and people don’t need to get real about it because they already know this.
Suspect Maugham doesn't care... all he cares about is stopping Brexit by any means necessary.
Who can blame him? It looks like the EU is a great lump of political inertia that helps damp out the excesses of the political extremes. We need EU membership - it keeps the lunatics in check.
You seriously think that? Remind me what is happening in other EU countries like Hungary and Austria.
Think what might be happening there is there was no restraint. Can you recall the last unrestrained Austrian?
As for the Hungarians, there is a lot of very conservative social inertia to get past. It will take time but you have to start somewhere.
It's only the EU that's keeping another Adolf Hitler from rising up in Austria? Okay.
The EU's clearly not doing a very good job of keeping the extremists in check. And there is no evidence they are needed to do that in the UK.
Perhaps you might wish to recall one of the EU (EEC at the time) founding objectives? To stop the near continuous wars that have plagued Europe for centuries. So far, the results look good.
As you are well aware, correlation does not imply causation.
And as you are well aware, causation can cause correlation.
You are obviously not even committed to the Tories now when at least around 38 to 40% of voters are clearly committed to the Tories in the polls.
You also forget that the vast majority of the Tory vote is made up of Leavers now, even under a No Deal scenario very few of them would switch to Labour and Tory Remainers would be more likely to vote for the LDs than Corbyn
I think you over emphasise how committed people are. I do find myself disagreeing with cyclefree on how angry to get at specific actions, as I interpret the reasoning differently, but you're pretty complacent about potential effect on the Tories. Dislike of Corbyn is still there but the fear might be less. Not by much, but it doesnt need to be by much.
As I said it did not rule Corbyn becoming PM with a few more seats and thanks to the SNP.
I repeat though I cannot see Corbyn ever winning a majority in England
https://twitter.com/jolyonmaugham/status/1074251476111974402?s=21 Jeremy Corbyn isn’t a liberal centrist, but is in fact a socialist......well I never. This has been self evident for a long time now, and people don’t need to get real about it because they already know this.
Suspect Maugham doesn't care... all he cares about is stopping Brexit by any means necessary.
Democracy isn't a partial thing. If Corbyn is elected, let him govern as he pleases. The idea that we need a supranational body to restrain a socialist government is utterly repugnant.
What do you think the European Convention on Human Rights is, other than a supranational Convention to restrain extremist governments? Or do you want to get rid of that as well?
You're being pretty ridiculous. One can be ok with that And not the idea the EU is needed to restrain political parties from pretty regular actions like various degrees of socialism. That level of restraint on governing options some are ok with and some dislike, it doesn't mean everyone thinks any voluntary joined restraint is bad. You've extrapolated a very broad view from a comment that was focused on a specific scenario.
Except if EUref2 led to Remain there would be no material change of circumstances enabling the SNP to call induref2 and almost no chance of Yes winning it even if it was called
The oracle has spoken , we will remain a vassal state.
It might well be the case Malcolm. After this debacle, how many more referenda can we cope with?
I sincerely hope there will be one soon in Scotland.
You are obviously not even committed to the Tories now when at least around 38 to 40% of voters are clearly committed to the Tories in the polls.
You also forget that the vast majority of the Tory vote is made up of Leavers now, even under a No Deal scenario very few of them would switch to Labour and Tory Remainers would be more likely to vote for the LDs than Corbyn
I think you over emphasise how committed people are. I do find myself disagreeing with cyclefree on how angry to get at specific actions, as I interpret the reasoning differently, but you're pretty complacent about potential effect on the Tories. Dislike of Corbyn is still there but the fear might be less. Not by much, but it doesnt need to be by much.
Well, quite. I'm not voting Tory again. They are simply exhausted, directionless, and the party's senior leadership is utterly underwhelming.
I respect you a great deal as a poster. But you are taking far too much comfort from the polls now.
Big_G seems like a nice person, but he is a party loyalist and I tend to discount what party loyalists post since they often spout the official line whatever it is.
I no longer have any patience with the Tory party's nervous breakdown. I won't be the only voter who feels this way.
You are not the only one. The Brexit myopia and Mrs May's tin ear are ensuring that the Party's reputation is being destroyed. God help them if a competent politician arises in opposition to them. Their aging support base is slowly shuffling off this mortal coil and that will not help either. They are giving nothing to the younger generations that would garner support - quite the opposite.
The Tory Party seems intent on its own destruction.
More of this Tories dying off nonsense. How many generations has this been spouted for?
The geriatric members of the Ruislip Tory Association just interviewed on SP weren't exactly an advert for the party - although one of them did say "we need some younger people, but there aren't any!".
Under MacMillan and under Thatcher the Tories managed to reinvent themselves to fit the modern era, and it was clear Cameron had something similar in mind when he took up his job. But it's not happening now; indeed both Brexit and the housing crisis (plus arguably student finance) are killing the Tories with younger people.
Young people never vote Tory except in landslide years, even Ed Miliband won under 35s.
It is the middle ages the Tories need to win
Well the average age of first home ownership is already in the late 30s and rising.
https://twitter.com/jolyonmaugham/status/1074251476111974402?s=21 Jeremy Corbyn isn’t a liberal centrist, but is in fact a socialist......well I never. This has been self evident for a long time now, and people don’t need to get real about it because they already know this.
Suspect Maugham doesn't care... all he cares about is stopping Brexit by any means necessary.
Democracy isn't a partial thing. If Corbyn is elected, let him govern as he pleases. The idea that we need a supranational body to restrain a socialist government is utterly repugnant.
What do you think the European Convention on Human Rights is, other than a supranational Convention to restrain extremist governments? Or do you want to get rid of that as well?
I believe (though please do correct me if I'm wrong) that the ECHR was incorporated into the HRA '98? Our domestic laws on human rights are (again, correct me if I'm wrong) a superset of the ECHR.
Do you have reason to believe that any mainstream UK political party wishes to revoke our human rights?
You are right that the ECHR has been incorporated into UK law. But we can still ultimately appeal to the court. The Tories did talk about doing something about the ECHR at one point;
My point though is that we do need - and have accepted since 1945 - restraints on what governments, even democratically elected ones, can do. We have accepted that no government can govern exactly as it pleases because there are - and must be - limits. We will be glad of those limits if some of the wilder proposals emanating from some of Corbyn's outriders ever try and get implemented.
Comments
Jeremy Hunt is the most egregiously qualified person to be our next Prime Minister.
https://twitter.com/antmiddleton/status/1073661776724680704
But I have a feeling it will be another nail voter with nobody knowing who is going to win during the campaign and an indecisive result at the end.
It's got to be worth a try though.
https://twitter.com/mikercameron/status/1074235330566463488?s=21
Clearly hasn’t seen Blair’s ratings. Even worse than Corbyn.
Where are their equivalents today?
Holding the country to ransom is an utter disgrace. If other Tories cannot see how toxic this is to their party then they deserve to disappear as a party.
1) May tries to sell No Deal to Commons
Unlikely. The Sun and Daily Mail may look as though they're preparing for this, but it's more likely they're preparing for a referendum. What the Commons won't swallow it won't swallow.
2) May tries to sell Deal to Commons
Similarly unlikely. It's been known for ages that she'd lose by up to 200 votes.
3) May says screw the Commons
Difficult, because the Commons can if necessary revoke or suspend A50 to avert No Deal even if they haven't got an alternative Deal to hand. That Leave without No Deal requires a Deal surely means that May would have to be replaced and perhaps also there would have to be a GE. Replacing May can be done faster than holding a GE and it is improbable that the DUP will support a Labour government under Jeremy Corbyn.
4) May goes for a government of national unity, or she chucks it in and her successor does
If this route is successfully taken, the DUP wouldn't get much say in the matter. Or at least their support in Commons divisions would not be needed. They could take NI by force, but that might not get them very far because they'd have few friends internationally and Vladimir Putin wouldn't dare.
Labour would have to be offered BINO. The Tory party would split and the Sun would go absolutely mental. Good option for Tommy Robinson and far-right opposition of an extra-parliamentary kind. The RN (formerly FN) in France and the AFD in Germany would salivate.
5) May pivots to referendum
This is what it's looking like. Her deputy has been discussing the option with referendum supporters in Labour.
Options in the referendum? Remain? Well obviously, yes. It's a clear option. Deal? There would have to be a large number of MPs voting to include it on the ballot who would - assuming they get the chance - vote in the Commons against accepting it. Labour MPs could probably be successfully encouraged to do so for the price of Remain being on the ballot, which it's going to be anyway. So probably, yes. No Deal? When I think about it, yes, probably this will be on the ballot too, because the alternative is the breakup of the Tory party.
6) May does a Major and forces a confidence vote
She can't. Or at least if she tables a motion of confidence and the Speaker accepts it, the FTPA will not come into play, because under the terms of that Act the procedure for dissolving parliament early without a two-thirds majority for a GE begins with a motion of NO confidence, not a motion of confidence. That means that if she lost a vote on "This house has confidence in the government and its proposed withdrawal agreement", Parliament would not be dissolved.
As for a motion of no confidence, using the statutory wording, tabled by the government on government time? Really? And even if the result of a vote is confidence, so what? There would have to be a separate vote on the Deal, which she would lose.
communicator is not popular.
All eminently sensible stuff - and dramatically at variance with his more recent posturing.
The meaningful vote itself would have been a confidence matter in the olden days. Another great features of the FTPA - a government can continue on without de facto confidence until such a motion is carried.
In truth everyone is frustrated with each other and we have the most abject politicians in the HOC I can recall
Everyone is shrieking for TM to bring the deal back this week but it is time for cooler heads. Parliament breaks for Xmas this week until the 7th January and as far as I am concerned we need Parliament to be in continuous sitting to deal with the aftermath of the next presentation and meaningful vote in January.
I believe lots of issues will flow during the course of the meaningful vote, especially the amendments, and January will be a defining month
Liam Fox suggesting just now the deal, as it stands, will not go to the HOC
Then there is the Business sector - it really cannot wait much longer before serious money has to be spent.
As we approach Brexit, pressures will start to bubble up and all will become unpredictable. At this point, the only guaranteed ways left in the time available are passing May's Deal or a 24 hour session of Parliament to revoke the Withdrawal Act and A50. Emergency sessions have been down before.
Whether Mrs May is PM might not matter. Events, dear lady, events.....
It does not take many Tory or potential Tory voters to sit on their hands for Labour to win. There are plenty of voters who feel furious about what is happening on the domestic agenda e.g. the continuing mess with the railways and would be OK with Labour doing something about a service which causes a nuisance every working day. Or Universal Credit. If the Tories continue as they are, with the delusions that a no-deal and likely chaotic Brexit will be all right on the night if they can't force agreement on a deal which no-one wants, then they will likely lose a lot of votes, no matter how awful they might think Corbyn is.
I do not see a government trying its best to resolve a difficult issue. I see a woman who has stubbornly and wrongly made this all about her, as if she embodies the country. Well, she doesn't. And if she wants to continue doing her "L'etat c'est moi" act she can push off. Stubbornly doing the wrong thing, stubbornly refusing to listen to what the EU is saying, stubbornly refusing to listen to her MPs who are telling her why they won't vote for this deal is not to be admired. The MPs may be wrong, I dunno, to take the view they do. But if she can't get the votes, she can't and that's her failure.
I no longer have any patience with the Tory party's nervous breakdown. I won't be the only voter who feels this way.
https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1074255501381304320
Jeremy Corbyn isn’t a liberal centrist, but is in fact a socialist......well I never. This has been self evident for a long time now, and people don’t need to get real about it because they already know this.
Now we will need a 7 euro travel document to do what we have become used to doing freely. Not much money, I agree, and the same as for Australians and Canadians. But, still, we have made ourselves a "third party" (a polite version of the "Aliens" channel of my childhood) on our own home Continent. How can this be an improvement? Is this the sort of country we want to be?
I will not be affected as I have my Irish nationality. But in order to travel freely as I have done all my life I am forced not to use my British nationality (of which I am proud) on my own continent. A small thing maybe but somehow emblematic to me of the mess this has turned into. And, naive I may have been, I never thought it would come to this, even after the referendum result was known.
The Tory Party seems intent on its own destruction.
As for the Hungarians, there is a lot of very conservative social inertia to get past. It will take time but you have to start somewhere.
The EU's clearly not doing a very good job of keeping the extremists in check. And there is no evidence they are needed to do that in the UK.
Under MacMillan and under Thatcher the Tories managed to reinvent themselves to fit the modern era, and it was clear Cameron had something similar in mind when he took up his job. But it's not happening now; indeed both Brexit and the housing crisis (plus arguably student finance) are killing the Tories with younger people.
Perhaps it would be an idea to extend the deadline for a few months, on condition we gave "No Deal" a try at the end of March, and saw how how it worked out.
It's a better sell than 'you can't control your nutjobs so let us do it'
It is the middle ages the Tories need to win
Christoph Waltz? Well, you get a really shitty Blofeld for a start...
However, at this point, none of the Western European powers could sustain a classic high intensity combat for more than a few days, nor do they have the ability to put boot on the ground in any meaningful way.
Do you have reason to believe that any mainstream UK political party wishes to revoke our human rights?
The Tory made disaster that is Brexit is still looming large.
"No deal" is by far the most likely outcome. With that in mind, start making your preparations folks!
He said. She said. Now what?
I repeat though I cannot see Corbyn ever winning a majority in England
How very like a politician.
My point though is that we do need - and have accepted since 1945 - restraints on what governments, even democratically elected ones, can do. We have accepted that no government can govern exactly as it pleases because there are - and must be - limits. We will be glad of those limits if some of the wilder proposals emanating from some of Corbyn's outriders ever try and get implemented.