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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The magnificent resilience of TMay ploughing on relentlessly a

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited December 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The magnificent resilience of TMay ploughing on relentlessly against all the odds

The week before Christmas and the PM looks set to have another uphill task once again this afternoon facing yet again a marathon grilling by MPs after she reports on last week’s abortive mission to Brussels.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 10,341
    edited December 2018
    There’s nothing magnificent about not listening.
  • Jonathan said:

    There’s nothing magnificent about not listening.

    Listening to who?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,433
    I think most voters accept May has got the only Deal available from the EU and Corbyn is exploiting the situation for political reasons rather than because he has any clear differences with May's Deal
  • I am just not sure she is competent. At some point you need to accept she is not a good leader. The economic news is really bad today. Retail is dying and exports are struggling especially outside Europe. May be hard to avoid a recession
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 10,341

    Jonathan said:

    There’s nothing magnificent about not listening.

    Listening to who?
    Good Question!

    * Her cabinet (around Chequers and through the negotiation, they were not on the same page)
    * Her backbenchers (in the run up to the Commons vote)
    * Other parties (critically right now, when she needs to give them something)
    * The electorate (at the 2017 General Election, losing her majority)
    * The EU (recently and through the negotiations)

    It was transparent months ago that her deal did not have the votes to pass the Commons and yet she ploughed on. All the signals were there. Anyone with half a political brain could see it, but so convinced of her own wisdom, she took us to the brink.

    This is not magnificent. Any fool could have concluded a deal with the EU that could not pass the Commons and bring us to this point.

    What would have been magnificent would have been to avoid this in the first place.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 4,855
    Quite possible her deal might be popular among the general public. Particularly if it is well explained.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 22,517
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    There’s nothing magnificent about not listening.

    Listening to who?
    Good Question!

    * Her cabinet (around Chequers and through the negotiation, they were not on the same page)
    * Her backbenchers (in the run up to the Commons vote)
    * Other parties (critically right now, when she needs to give them something)
    * The electorate (at the 2017 General Election, losing her majority)
    * The EU (recently and through the negotiations)

    It was transparent months ago that her deal did not have the votes to pass the Commons and yet she ploughed on. All the signals were there. Anyone with half a political brain could see it, but so convinced of her own wisdom, she took us to the brink.

    This is not magnificent. Any fool could have concluded a deal with the EU that could not pass the Commons and bring us to this point.

    What would have been magnificent would have been to avoid this in the first place.
    "It was transparent months ago that her deal did not have the votes to pass the Commons and yet she ploughed on."

    The deal was not agreed months ago - it was only agreed a month ago. Anyone saying they would vote against something they hadn't seen, especially on such an important issue, are utter fucking muppets who do not have the interests of the country at heart.
  • FPT since this has betting implications (oh yes, and the future of the free world but mainly betting)
    Forbes on Trump and Russia.
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevedenning/2018/12/16/mueller-exposes-putins-hold-over-trump/
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 22,057
    Theresa May has negotiated really, really poorly and come up with a really, really poor deal.

    But.... Rather than offer her the tumbler of whisky and the pearl-handled, the Tory Party has voted to keep Theresa May as our Prime Minister.

    Theresa May comes with Theresa May's Shit Deal.

    So the Tory Party has voted for Theresa May's Shit Deal. They might not have thought that's what they were doing last Tuesday, but they will get there eventually. (Or else flounce off to form a new party that will get nowhere and whither away. Taking any form of Brexit with it.)

    Theresa May is not for Plan B, Plan C, Plan D. Theresa May is for Plan Theresa. And as the head of the government, she holds most of the cards to block Plan B, Plan C, Plan D.....
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,047
    edited December 2018
    The criticism of the ERG and Corbyn is absolutely correct - lazy thinking looking for easy solutions. However after 2 years, May hasn’t really got a got a credible plan either. Paying out £ 39 bn for an agreement to negotiate further with no idea of the outcome and showing gross negligence in failing to prepare for leaving the EU is not a credible plan.

    I think Brexit shows how poor British politicians and the Civil Service who advise them, actually are. No wonder so many MPs want to ignore the first referendum result before we’ve actually left. Being paid a large amount of money for simply doing what Brussels tells you is far easier.

    May’s standing derives from the fact that she is at least having a go and the British do like a plucky loser. It’s not really serving the country very well though to have a PM who doesn’t want to leave the EU and who is failing to prepare for it, turn up to Brussels for ritual humiliations because she wants a post Brexit relationship with the EU that the EU clearly don’t want, whilst domestic policy is ignored.

    I don’t necessarily want a popular PM myself if it means having one that is incompetent.

  • felixfelix Posts: 8,241

    Theresa May has negotiated really, really poorly and come up with a really, really poor deal.

    But.... Rather than offer her the tumbler of whisky and the pearl-handled, the Tory Party has voted to keep Theresa May as our Prime Minister.

    Theresa May comes with Theresa May's Shit Deal.

    So the Tory Party has voted for Theresa May's Shit Deal. They might not have thought that's what they were doing last Tuesday, but they will get there eventually. (Or else flounce off to form a new party that will get nowhere and whither away. Taking any form of Brexit with it.)

    Theresa May is not for Plan B, Plan C, Plan D. Theresa May is for Plan Theresa. And as the head of the government, she holds most of the cards to block Plan B, Plan C, Plan D.....

    You have not come to terms with the fact that there are no good Brexit deals. May has made the most of of a lousy decision. Get over it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,433
    US Senate votes to end military aid to the Saudis for their war in Yemen and blames Bin Salman for the death of James Khashoggi

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-46588036
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 10,557

    Jonathan said:

    There’s nothing magnificent about not listening.

    Listening to who?
    "Whom" surely?
  • Android sucks, Apple rules, ‘twas ever thus.

    Forbes recently challenged a variety of smartphone face-recognition systems with a 3d printed head modeled after the author's head.

    The head was printed at Backface in Birmingham, U.K., where I was ushered into a dome-like studio containing 50 cameras. Together, they combine to take a single shot that makes up a full 3D image.

    The final model took a few days to generate at the cost of just over £300. With it, the author tested it out against four Android smartphones and the iPhone X. All Android phones tested were able to be unlocked with the fake 3d printed head.

    If you're an Android customer, though, look away from your screen now. We tested four of the hottest handsets running Google's operating systems and Apple's iPhone to see how easy it'd be to break into them.

    We did it with a 3D-printed head. All of the Androids opened with the fake. Apple's phone, however, was impenetrable.

    The Android phones tested included the LG G7 ThinQ, Samsung S9, Samsung Note 8 and OnePlus 6.


    https://www.macrumors.com/2018/12/16/3d-printed-head-android-face-id/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,433

    Theresa May has negotiated really, really poorly and come up with a really, really poor deal.

    But.... Rather than offer her the tumbler of whisky and the pearl-handled, the Tory Party has voted to keep Theresa May as our Prime Minister.

    Theresa May comes with Theresa May's Shit Deal.

    So the Tory Party has voted for Theresa May's Shit Deal. They might not have thought that's what they were doing last Tuesday, but they will get there eventually. (Or else flounce off to form a new party that will get nowhere and whither away. Taking any form of Brexit with it.)

    Theresa May is not for Plan B, Plan C, Plan D. Theresa May is for Plan Theresa. And as the head of the government, she holds most of the cards to block Plan B, Plan C, Plan D.....

    Theresa May has got a Deal that leaves the EU, ends free movement and minimises the damage to the economy.

    The only viable alternatives are No Deal that would maximise the damage to the economy, permanent Customs Union and Single Market BINO which would mean free movement and we could never do our own trade deals or reversing Brexit altogether after a Remain vote in EUref2
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 18,675

    FPT @MorrisDancer


    Thank you, Mr. Brooke. I hope so too.

    Didn't back Thomas (around 3.5 or 4.5) for SPOTY last night. Mildly annoyed with myself, but this betting business would be rather easier with hindsight.

    I mus say Mr D I rather thought Lewis Hamilton should have won, his achievements are mucg greatewr than young Thomas
  • HYUFD said:

    I think most voters accept May has got the only Deal available from the EU and Corbyn is exploiting the situation for political reasons rather than because he has any clear differences with May's Deal

    May has taken what the EU gave her - nothing.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,433
    rkrkrk said:

    Quite possible her deal might be popular among the general public. Particularly if it is well explained.

    Yes Yougov had the Deal preferred by voters to No Deal and tied with Remain head to head a fortnight ago and Deltapoll showed a similar result
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 18,675

    I am just not sure she is competent. At some point you need to accept she is not a good leader. The economic news is really bad today. Retail is dying and exports are struggling especially outside Europe. May be hard to avoid a recession

    its the same across the world, this isnt just a UK issue
  • On topic, Mrs May has won me over, that’s how impressive she’s been, as you might remember I was one of her early critics when everyone was fawning over her.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,433
    Field to table motion so MPs can consider each Brexit option

  • Jonathan said:

    There’s nothing magnificent about not listening.

    Listening to who?
    Therein lies the problem. Plenty of people are talking but no one is building a consensus and that includes May.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 10,341

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    There’s nothing magnificent about not listening.

    Listening to who?
    Good Question!

    * Her cabinet (around Chequers and through the negotiation, they were not on the same page)
    * Her backbenchers (in the run up to the Commons vote)
    * Other parties (critically right now, when she needs to give them something)
    * The electorate (at the 2017 General Election, losing her majority)
    * The EU (recently and through the negotiations)

    It was transparent months ago that her deal did not have the votes to pass the Commons and yet she ploughed on. All the signals were there. Anyone with half a political brain could see it, but so convinced of her own wisdom, she took us to the brink.

    This is not magnificent. Any fool could have concluded a deal with the EU that could not pass the Commons and bring us to this point.

    What would have been magnificent would have been to avoid this in the first place.
    "It was transparent months ago that her deal did not have the votes to pass the Commons and yet she ploughed on."

    The deal was not agreed months ago - it was only agreed a month ago. Anyone saying they would vote against something they hadn't seen, especially on such an important issue, are utter fucking muppets who do not have the interests of the country at heart.
    Chequers was months ago, it was clear that anything like that would not be passed by a minority government. The actual deal made things worse.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 22,517
    edited December 2018

    Android sucks, Apple rules, ‘twas ever thus.

    Forbes recently challenged a variety of smartphone face-recognition systems with a 3d printed head modeled after the author's head.

    The head was printed at Backface in Birmingham, U.K., where I was ushered into a dome-like studio containing 50 cameras. Together, they combine to take a single shot that makes up a full 3D image.

    The final model took a few days to generate at the cost of just over £300. With it, the author tested it out against four Android smartphones and the iPhone X. All Android phones tested were able to be unlocked with the fake 3d printed head.

    If you're an Android customer, though, look away from your screen now. We tested four of the hottest handsets running Google's operating systems and Apple's iPhone to see how easy it'd be to break into them.

    We did it with a 3D-printed head. All of the Androids opened with the fake. Apple's phone, however, was impenetrable.

    The Android phones tested included the LG G7 ThinQ, Samsung S9, Samsung Note 8 and OnePlus 6.


    https://www.macrumors.com/2018/12/16/3d-printed-head-android-face-id/

    Anyone relying on Face ID for security needs their head testing, not ID'ing (as part of 2FA it isn't too bad).

    As for the article, anyone using Android phones should avoid going into a specialist photo lab and having a 3d model of their head created...

  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 2,841
    HYUFD said:

    I think most voters accept May has got the only Deal available from the EU and Corbyn is exploiting the situation for political reasons rather than because he has any clear differences with May's Deal

    I think you probably right. But whether by design or chance, Corbyn is succeeding in keeping the Labour brand untainted by Brexit. That might well do his successor a big favour.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,433

    HYUFD said:

    I think most voters accept May has got the only Deal available from the EU and Corbyn is exploiting the situation for political reasons rather than because he has any clear differences with May's Deal

    May has taken what the EU gave her - nothing.
    Rubbish. May has got an end to free movement and a temporary Customs Union against the norm, it is fanatics like you determined to send us over the cliff with No Deal
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 22,517
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    There’s nothing magnificent about not listening.

    Listening to who?
    Good Question!

    * Her cabinet (around Chequers and through the negotiation, they were not on the same page)
    * Her backbenchers (in the run up to the Commons vote)
    * Other parties (critically right now, when she needs to give them something)
    * The electorate (at the 2017 General Election, losing her majority)
    * The EU (recently and through the negotiations)

    It was transparent months ago that her deal did not have the votes to pass the Commons and yet she ploughed on. All the signals were there. Anyone with half a political brain could see it, but so convinced of her own wisdom, she took us to the brink.

    This is not magnificent. Any fool could have concluded a deal with the EU that could not pass the Commons and bring us to this point.

    What would have been magnificent would have been to avoid this in the first place.
    "It was transparent months ago that her deal did not have the votes to pass the Commons and yet she ploughed on."

    The deal was not agreed months ago - it was only agreed a month ago. Anyone saying they would vote against something they hadn't seen, especially on such an important issue, are utter fucking muppets who do not have the interests of the country at heart.
    Chequers was months ago, it was clear that anything like that would not be passed by a minority government. The actual deal made things worse.
    Again, anyone deciding they'd vote against the deal before the deal was finalised is fuccking stupid.

    And you assume that something better was available. Perhaps a master negotiator such as Mark might have (ha!), or perhaps you think some of the geniuses on the Labour front bench might have.

    Or perhaps she got the best there was ...
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 9,839
    Not content with keeping the public vote in Strictly a secret, the BBC is now covering up the SPOTY results:

    https://tinyurl.com/y735fmgt

    However, this year they have decided to hold back the information, meaning Hamilton will not know how close he was to winning his second SPOTY trophy.

    BBC sport journalist Francis Keogh tweeted: “I’m told there will be no voting numbers for Sports Personality as the BBC have brought it in line with other programmes like Strictly #SPOTY.”
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 38,291
    Jonathan said:

    May doing anything now to ram her deal down our throats.

    New EU referendum would break faith with Britons, May to warn MPs http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46586673

    She is permitted to argue her case, I fail to see the issue. I think she should try something else and I still think she will, but some people, not you, bleat about May forcing X or refusing to do Y where Y us their preferred option (And mine to for that matter) and seem to be saying that even though no option seems to have a majority it's an outrage that she won't swing behind one of those other non starter options. I think it's s mistake, and she is not helping much anymore, but the whinging from some that she won't just give them their chance to remain, or that she risks no deal (which was risked by parliament as a whole and still is) is often very transparent, especially when from those who are usually more convincing.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 13,145

    HYUFD said:

    I think most voters accept May has got the only Deal available from the EU and Corbyn is exploiting the situation for political reasons rather than because he has any clear differences with May's Deal

    I think you probably right. But whether by design or chance, Corbyn is succeeding in keeping the Labour brand untainted by Brexit. That might well do his successor a big favour.
    Not just untainted by Brexit but untainted by credibility, decisiveness, leadership and by generally having the slightest clue what to do.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 2,841

    HYUFD said:

    I think most voters accept May has got the only Deal available from the EU and Corbyn is exploiting the situation for political reasons rather than because he has any clear differences with May's Deal

    May has taken what the EU gave her - nothing.
    She's got the least worst deal she was likely to get. That it doesn't offer much to anyone is basically down to Brexit being a bit of a rubbish idea rather than any poor negotiating. But the deal does have the great virtue that it is equally acceptable to all sides and so could form the basis for unifying the country in the way that a deal that any minority actually liked wouldn't.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 1,692

    Theresa May has negotiated really, really poorly and come up with a really, really poor deal.

    But.... Rather than offer her the tumbler of whisky and the pearl-handled, the Tory Party has voted to keep Theresa May as our Prime Minister.

    Theresa May comes with Theresa May's Shit Deal.

    So the Tory Party has voted for Theresa May's Shit Deal. They might not have thought that's what they were doing last Tuesday, but they will get there eventually. (Or else flounce off to form a new party that will get nowhere and whither away. Taking any form of Brexit with it.)

    Theresa May is not for Plan B, Plan C, Plan D. Theresa May is for Plan Theresa. And as the head of the government, she holds most of the cards to block Plan B, Plan C, Plan D.....

    That would be true if the Tory party was acting in a united fashion in Parliament, and the outcome of the leadership vote was all 318(?) obeying the whip. As we know, that’s not really happening, so all we can say as that 200 MPs, at most, have voted for Theresa May’s Shit Deal. So TMSD ‘enjoys’ the support of less than a third of MPs, which is what matters for getting it through.

    On the other hand, the government’s control of Parliament means that those 200 MPs have voted to facilitate Theresa May’s Cynical Delaying Strategy: unless they removed her, it remains unclear how Parliament will have the opportunity to follow any other Brexit outcome. The key question is how many of the 200 want to get to TMSD and believe that TMCDS will get there, and how many don’t believe in TMCDS and have an alternative plan. And perhaps, how many have no plan at all.

    In the meantime, there’s not a lot the other 450 MPs can do.
  • rkrkrk said:

    Quite possible her deal might be popular among the general public. Particularly if it is well explained.

    This is one source of May's problems. She hasn't made the effort to bring people with her, to open up the process of making the necessary compromises. If she had then the pathetic cakeism of the ERG and Labour would have less than zero credibility.

    Instead she is reduced to using No Deal or No Brexit to scare the different groups of opponents to her deal. She is relying on her opponents being too divided to replace her and follow a different policy.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think most voters accept May has got the only Deal available from the EU and Corbyn is exploiting the situation for political reasons rather than because he has any clear differences with May's Deal

    May has taken what the EU gave her - nothing.
    Rubbish. May has got an end to free movement and a temporary Customs Union against the norm, it is fanatics like you determined to send us over the cliff with No Deal
    She hasn’t got an end to free movement because there is an important caveat on immigration to what she actually has agreed saying immigration is still up for negotiation in the trade negotiations.The temporary customs union is because she hasn’t got any clue how to satisfy the EU on the Irish border, and there are no signs it can be ever satisfied, leads to a permanent one if we go into the backstop and can’t get out.

    I’d rather have a FTA myself with complete freedom to regulate our domestic economy as we see fit. That’s fairly standard amongst civilised nations that respect the rule of law. However if the choice is no deal or no Brexit, I would prefer the first to the second.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 38,291
    Alistair said:

    You learn something every day.

    Having a vote is undemocratic.

    many votes around the world are not truly very democratic as they are not free or fair. I don't think that charge of being undemocratic applies to a second referendum and I reluctantly back the idea, but the smug dismissal of concerns about it ignoring the first, and that it will lead to other problems given the reasons for leave still exist, and given the majority of it's backers do clearly just want a rerun as they think they will win it is not truly about the people deciding just that they decide correctly, it does add up to it being fair to criticise.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 38,291
    No one on parliament is listening except to each other, and there is no majority option. Who is May supposed to listen to exactly?
  • This is what I wrote about Theresa May shortly after she took over as Prime Minister:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/09/11/meet-the-new-boss/

    I could have done worse.
  • Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    There’s nothing magnificent about not listening.

    Listening to who?
    Good Question!

    * Her cabinet (around Chequers and through the negotiation, they were not on the same page)
    * Her backbenchers (in the run up to the Commons vote)
    * Other parties (critically right now, when she needs to give them something)
    * The electorate (at the 2017 General Election, losing her majority)
    * The EU (recently and through the negotiations)

    It was transparent months ago that her deal did not have the votes to pass the Commons and yet she ploughed on. All the signals were there. Anyone with half a political brain could see it, but so convinced of her own wisdom, she took us to the brink.

    This is not magnificent. Any fool could have concluded a deal with the EU that could not pass the Commons and bring us to this point.

    What would have been magnificent would have been to avoid this in the first place.
    "It was transparent months ago that her deal did not have the votes to pass the Commons and yet she ploughed on."

    The deal was not agreed months ago - it was only agreed a month ago. Anyone saying they would vote against something they hadn't seen, especially on such an important issue, are utter fucking muppets who do not have the interests of the country at heart.
    Chequers was months ago, it was clear that anything like that would not be passed by a minority government. The actual deal made things worse.
    Again, anyone deciding they'd vote against the deal before the deal was finalised is fuccking stupid.

    And you assume that something better was available. Perhaps a master negotiator such as Mark might have (ha!), or perhaps you think some of the geniuses on the Labour front bench might have.

    Or perhaps she got the best there was ...
    May got the best there was after she made some terrible mistakes earlier on the process. This doesn't mean either that the basic concept of Brexit was bad, nor on the other hand, that she had any alternative by the time she came to negotiating the key points. She had already made the choices that condemned us to a sub optimal outcome way back towards the beginning of the process.

    So it is perfectly reasonable to say that the basic concept if Brexit was sound, that a far better deal could have been negotiated if someone else had been doing it but also that now we are here it is right to support this Deal as the best we are now going to get.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,047
    edited December 2018

    HYUFD said:

    I think most voters accept May has got the only Deal available from the EU and Corbyn is exploiting the situation for political reasons rather than because he has any clear differences with May's Deal

    May has taken what the EU gave her - nothing.
    She's got the least worst deal she was likely to get. That it doesn't offer much to anyone is basically down to Brexit being a bit of a rubbish idea rather than any poor negotiating. But the deal does have the great virtue that it is equally acceptable to all sides and so could form the basis for unifying the country in the way that a deal that any minority actually liked wouldn't.
    Insulting 17.4 m people who voted for it isn’t a great argument and to make a comment that she got the least worst deal is fatuous. How on earth do you know ? That it doesn’t offer much / anything is because it’s a bad deal. It’s not acceptable to all sides either. The HoC won’t approve it which is why the vote was pulled. It’s not unifying the country. The polls show its the least popular option of all alternatives. It’s dividing the country if anything. Apart from that - great comment.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 38,291
    Being principled is not a good thing if your principles are unsound of course.

    On us not leaving the EU is say 62% it not happening is about right. May is trying - she clearly did respond to parliament by trying to get changes so the charge she never listens is false, she just failed in the task and is stalling until Xmas - but the momentum is building.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 3,749
    HYUFD said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Quite possible her deal might be popular among the general public. Particularly if it is well explained.

    Yes Yougov had the Deal preferred by voters to No Deal and tied with Remain head to head a fortnight ago and Deltapoll showed a similar result
    It is surprising that she is not willing to go over the heads of MPs and appeal directly to voters in a people's vote. That's the only way she's going to get her deal over the line.
  • Mr. Barnesian, may be wary given the last referendum didn't go the way that was expected, and her last attempt to woo the public was not the most persuasive in British electoral history.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 38,291
    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Quite possible her deal might be popular among the general public. Particularly if it is well explained.

    Yes Yougov had the Deal preferred by voters to No Deal and tied with Remain head to head a fortnight ago and Deltapoll showed a similar result
    It is surprising that she is not willing to go over the heads of MPs and appeal directly to voters in a people's vote. That's the only way she's going to get her deal over the line.
    Yes, I figured she would start to equivocate on it then u turn. Maybe she still will, but she clearly wants it in the minds of mps over Xmas that they cannot assume just because the MV will be lost that she will do it.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 1,692
    kle4 said:

    Being principled is not a good thing if your principles are unsound of course.

    On us not leaving the EU is say 62% it not happening is about right. May is trying - she clearly did respond to parliament by trying to get changes so the charge she never listens is false, she just failed in the task and is stalling until Xmas - but the momentum is building.

    By all accounts she refused to listen to Cabinet or Parliament until the last possible moment, and then only when it was clear that she was heading for a Commons defeat so bad she would probably have had to either resign as leader or face a challenge backed by quite a few Cabinet ministers (which she would have had a far smaller chance of winning that the vote that subsequently took place). Rather than sticking to what she apparently believes to be true - that no legal changes to the backstop are possible - she is now pretending there might be a chance in order to hold onto her job and run the clock down further. That really isn’t ‘listening’ (though I don’t doubt that she believes it’s in the national interest because she thinks it’s the most likely way to get the deal through).
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 3,749

    Mr. Barnesian, may be wary given the last referendum didn't go the way that was expected, and her last attempt to woo the public was not the most persuasive in British electoral history.

    Correct. But she has a chance with the public who are increasingly admiring her. Her deal has no chance with MPs.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 38,291
    Polruan said:

    kle4 said:

    Being principled is not a good thing if your principles are unsound of course.

    On us not leaving the EU is say 62% it not happening is about right. May is trying - she clearly did respond to parliament by trying to get changes so the charge she never listens is false, she just failed in the task and is stalling until Xmas - but the momentum is building.

    By all accounts she refused to listen to Cabinet or Parliament until the last possible moment, and then only when it was clear that she was heading for a Commons defeat so bad she would probably have had to either resign as leader or face a challenge backed by quite a few Cabinet ministers (which she would have had a far smaller chance of winning that the vote that subsequently took place). Rather than sticking to what she apparently believes to be true - that no legal changes to the backstop are possible - she is now pretending there might be a chance in order to hold onto her job and run the clock down further. That really isn’t ‘listening’ (though I don’t doubt that she believes it’s in the national interest because she thinks it’s the most likely way to get the deal through).
    One reason she should go. But doing it too late or in a manner people think as perfunctory doesn't mean she hasn't listened at all. Not least since if she was right in the first place about no changes then she could listen all she wants without changing course since what people want is not possible. Of course said that and now is trying to do that, which undermines her claims, but if we have only a few options listening to the hundreds asking for unicorns doesn't lead to change.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 38,291
    I wonder if Philip May will request the portrait as a gift for his wife.
  • On topic, I see nothing admirable about clinging to power for its own sake. What is she now trying to do?
  • kle4 said:

    I wonder if Philip May will request the portrait as a gift for his wife.

    I like the portrait, but I don't think the background conveys a flattering message for the Prime Minister.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 3,749
    kle4 said:

    I wonder if Philip May will request the portrait as a gift for his wife.

    I wonder what Philip May's position on a people's vote is. He will have his wife's ear over Xmas.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 2,687

    Theresa May has negotiated really, really poorly and come up with a really, really poor deal.

    But.... Rather than offer her the tumbler of whisky and the pearl-handled, the Tory Party has voted to keep Theresa May as our Prime Minister.

    Theresa May comes with Theresa May's Shit Deal.

    So the Tory Party has voted for Theresa May's Shit Deal. They might not have thought that's what they were doing last Tuesday, but they will get there eventually. (Or else flounce off to form a new party that will get nowhere and whither away. Taking any form of Brexit with it.)

    Theresa May is not for Plan B, Plan C, Plan D. Theresa May is for Plan Theresa. And as the head of the government, she holds most of the cards to block Plan B, Plan C, Plan D.....

    I think I'd have to be at the level of SeanT 11am Drunk to make any sense of this.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,433
    Former Tory Chairman Lord Patten compares hard line Brexiteers to 'vermin' and "Maoists'

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/7993374/brexiteers-are-like-vermin-and-communist-revolutionaries-europhile-lord-patten-claims/
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 9,839

    On topic, I see nothing admirable about clinging to power for its own sake. What is she now trying to do?

    +1
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,433

    HYUFD said:

    I think most voters accept May has got the only Deal available from the EU and Corbyn is exploiting the situation for political reasons rather than because he has any clear differences with May's Deal

    I think you probably right. But whether by design or chance, Corbyn is succeeding in keeping the Labour brand untainted by Brexit. That might well do his successor a big favour.
    That suggests though Corbyn could still lose the next general election and it may be up to his successor to lead Labour back to power
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,433
    edited December 2018

    HYUFD said:

    I think most voters accept May has got the only Deal available from the EU and Corbyn is exploiting the situation for political reasons rather than because he has any clear differences with May's Deal

    May has taken what the EU gave her - nothing.
    She's got the least worst deal she was likely to get. That it doesn't offer much to anyone is basically down to Brexit being a bit of a rubbish idea rather than any poor negotiating. But the deal does have the great virtue that it is equally acceptable to all sides and so could form the basis for unifying the country in the way that a deal that any minority actually liked wouldn't.
    Insulting 17.4 m people who voted for it isn’t a great argument and to make a comment that she got the least worst deal is fatuous. How on earth do you know ? That it doesn’t offer much / anything is because it’s a bad deal. It’s not acceptable to all sides either. The HoC won’t approve it which is why the vote was pulled. It’s not unifying the country. The polls show its the least popular option of all alternatives. It’s dividing the country if anything. Apart from that - great comment.
    Wrong as both Yougov and Deltapoll showed the Deal beats No Deal head to head and is tied with Remain.

    It is No Deal or Remain which will hugely divide the country
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 28,004
    edited December 2018
    Ha, we are - or were - the UK’s 20th fastest growing private company before we were snaffled up!
    https://www.globebmg.com/globe-business-media-group-named-20th-fastest-growing-business-britain/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,433

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think most voters accept May has got the only Deal available from the EU and Corbyn is exploiting the situation for political reasons rather than because he has any clear differences with May's Deal

    May has taken what the EU gave her - nothing.
    Rubbish. May has got an end to free movement and a temporary Customs Union against the norm, it is fanatics like you determined to send us over the cliff with No Deal
    She hasn’t got an end to free movement because there is an important caveat on immigration to what she actually has agreed saying immigration is still up for negotiation in the trade negotiations.The temporary customs union is because she hasn’t got any clue how to satisfy the EU on the Irish border, and there are no signs it can be ever satisfied, leads to a permanent one if we go into the backstop and can’t get out.

    I’d rather have a FTA myself with complete freedom to regulate our domestic economy as we see fit. That’s fairly standard amongst civilised nations that respect the rule of law. However if the choice is no deal or no Brexit, I would prefer the first to the second.
    May has enabled the ending of free movement and got a temporary not permanent Customs Union. What future trade negotiations bring is for the future the Withdrawal Agreement is the status quo until any trade agreement agreed.

    As Barnier has confirmed there can only be a FTA for GB not the UK without a backstop for NI.

    No Deal means huge damage to the economy
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,433
    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Quite possible her deal might be popular among the general public. Particularly if it is well explained.

    Yes Yougov had the Deal preferred by voters to No Deal and tied with Remain head to head a fortnight ago and Deltapoll showed a similar result
    It is surprising that she is not willing to go over the heads of MPs and appeal directly to voters in a people's vote. That's the only way she's going to get her deal over the line.
    As a last resort I still think she may but she wants to do everything possible to get it through Parliament first
  • kle4 said:

    I wonder if Philip May will request the portrait as a gift for his wife.

    Not sure but im voting figurative realist next time.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think most voters accept May has got the only Deal available from the EU and Corbyn is exploiting the situation for political reasons rather than because he has any clear differences with May's Deal

    May has taken what the EU gave her - nothing.
    Rubbish. May has got an end to free movement and a temporary Customs Union against the norm, it is fanatics like you determined to send us over the cliff with No Deal
    She hasn’t got an end to free movement because there is an important caveat on immigration to what she actually has agreed saying immigration is still up for negotiation in the trade negotiations.The temporary customs union is because she hasn’t got any clue how to satisfy the EU on the Irish border, and there are no signs it can be ever satisfied, leads to a permanent one if we go into the backstop and can’t get out.

    I’d rather have a FTA myself with complete freedom to regulate our domestic economy as we see fit. That’s fairly standard amongst civilised nations that respect the rule of law. However if the choice is no deal or no Brexit, I would prefer the first to the second.
    May has enabled the ending of free movement and got a temporary not permanent Customs Union. What future trade negotiations bring is for the future the Withdrawal Agreement is the status quo until any trade agreement agreed.

    As Barnier has confirmed there can only be a FTA for GB not the UK without a backstop for NI.

    No Deal means huge damage to the economy
    If the EU want to break up the U.K., there is no deal to be had. The EU doesn’t have that right and it’s only Remainers who would contemplate it.
  • HYUFD said:

    US Senate votes to end military aid to the Saudis for their war in Yemen and blames Bin Salman for the death of James Khashoggi

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-46588036

    Is Britain still supporting the Saudis?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 22,517


    May got the best there was after she made some terrible mistakes earlier on the process. This doesn't mean either that the basic concept of Brexit was bad, nor on the other hand, that she had any alternative by the time she came to negotiating the key points. She had already made the choices that condemned us to a sub optimal outcome way back towards the beginning of the process.

    So it is perfectly reasonable to say that the basic concept if Brexit was sound, that a far better deal could have been negotiated if someone else had been doing it but also that now we are here it is right to support this Deal as the best we are now going to get.

    It is far from obvious that a better deal could have been negotiated by someone else, especially the Conservative Brexiteers who have shown themselves to be utterly clueless winnets.

    Hindsight is wonderful, and the question comes whether the decisions she made that led to the 'mistakes' were reasonable decisions at the time. Such brilliant brains as IDS might have avoided the mistakes she made, but might have made absolute howlers in other areas.

    I would say two things:

    1) It is clear that too many Brexiteers saw Brexit as being 'easy', and had utterly unrealistic views on what was possible or feasible - and I fear this would have carried through into negotiations, and potentially been disastrous for them.

    2) Too many Brexiteers don't want a deal. Putting them in charge of negotiations would have been disastrous. And the ones who wanted a deal would have run into the same problems as May has in selling it to the likes of the ERG.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 2,841

    HYUFD said:

    I think most voters accept May has got the only Deal available from the EU and Corbyn is exploiting the situation for political reasons rather than because he has any clear differences with May's Deal

    May has taken what the EU gave her - nothing.
    She's got the least worst deal she was likely to get. That it doesn't offer much to anyone is basically down to Brexit being a bit of a rubbish idea rather than any poor negotiating. But the deal does have the great virtue that it is equally acceptable to all sides and so could form the basis for unifying the country in the way that a deal that any minority actually liked wouldn't.
    Insulting 17.4 m people who voted for it isn’t a great argument and to make a comment that she got the least worst deal is fatuous. How on earth do you know ? That it doesn’t offer much / anything is because it’s a bad deal. It’s not acceptable to all sides either. The HoC won’t approve it which is why the vote was pulled. It’s not unifying the country. The polls show its the least popular option of all alternatives. It’s dividing the country if anything. Apart from that - great comment.
    Having a different opinion to someone is not insulting them. My point was that it is a compromise that a lot of people could live with. By definition a compromise is not liked.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,433
    edited December 2018

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think most voters accept May has got the only Deal available from the EU and Corbyn is exploiting the situation for political reasons rather than because he has any clear differences with May's Deal

    May has taken what the EU gave her - nothing.
    Rubbish. May has got an end to free movement and a temporary Customs Union against the norm, it is fanatics like you determined to send us over the cliff with No Deal
    She hasn’t got an end to free movement because there is an important caveat on immigration to what she actually has agreed saying immigration is still up for negotiation in the trade negotiations.The temporary customs union is because she hasn’t got any clue how to satisfy the EU on the Irish border, and there are no signs it can be ever satisfied, leads to a permanent one if we go into the backstop and can’t get out.

    I’d rather have a FTA myself with complete freedom to regulate our domestic economy as we see fit. That’s fairly standard amongst civilised nations that respect the rule of law. However if the choice is no deal or no Brexit, I would prefer the first to the second.
    May has enabled the ending of free movement and got a temporary not permanent Customs Union. What future trade negotiations bring is for the future the Withdrawal Agreement is the status quo until any trade agreement agreed.

    As Barnier has confirmed there can only be a FTA for GB not the UK without a backstop for NI.

    No Deal means huge damage to the economy
    If the EU want to break up the U.K., there is no deal to be had. The EU doesn’t have that right and it’s only Remainers who would contemplate it.
    As the polls show it is No Deal that makes Scots most likely to vote for independence and a hard border in Ireland makes a united Ireland most likely
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,433

    HYUFD said:

    US Senate votes to end military aid to the Saudis for their war in Yemen and blames Bin Salman for the death of James Khashoggi

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-46588036

    Is Britain still supporting the Saudis?
    Not after Khashoggi
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think most voters accept May has got the only Deal available from the EU and Corbyn is exploiting the situation for political reasons rather than because he has any clear differences with May's Deal

    May has taken what the EU gave her - nothing.
    Rubbish. May has got an end to free movement and a temporary Customs Union against the norm, it is fanatics like you determined to send us over the cliff with No Deal
    She hasn’t got an end to free movement because there is an important caveat on immigration to what she actually has agreed saying immigration is still up for negotiation in the trade negotiations.The temporary customs union is because she hasn’t got any clue how to satisfy the EU on the Irish border, and there are no signs it can be ever satisfied, leads to a permanent one if we go into the backstop and can’t get out.

    I’d rather have a FTA myself with complete freedom to regulate our domestic economy as we see fit. That’s fairly standard amongst civilised nations that respect the rule of law. However if the choice is no deal or no Brexit, I would prefer the first to the second.
    May has enabled the ending of free movement and got a temporary not permanent Customs Union. What future trade negotiations bring is for the future the Withdrawal Agreement is the status quo until any trade agreement agreed.

    As Barnier has confirmed there can only be a FTA for GB not the UK without a backstop for NI.

    No Deal means huge damage to the economy
    If the EU want to break up the U.K., there is no deal to be had. The EU doesn’t have that right and it’s only Remainers who would contemplate it.
    Total bollocks. If there is any blame for a threat to the UK Union Brexiteers and their infantile obsession own it.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 3,749
    A devastating case against Trump. No wonder he is drifting the betting. I still don't think he will be impeached but it is increasingly unlikely that he will be the Republican candidate in 2020.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevedenning/2018/12/16/mueller-exposes-putins-hold-over-trump/#b032d7e48f68
  • tlg86 said:

    On topic, I see nothing admirable about clinging to power for its own sake. What is she now trying to do?

    +1
    Though if she could hang on until 1 January I, and I think @Pulpstar, would be much obliged.
  • Barnesian said:

    kle4 said:

    I wonder if Philip May will request the portrait as a gift for his wife.

    I wonder what Philip May's position on a people's vote is. He will have his wife's ear over Xmas.
    Ah, but will the weather be good enough for them to share a lengthy walk?
  • tlg86 said:

    On topic, I see nothing admirable about clinging to power for its own sake. What is she now trying to do?

    +1
    Though if she could hang on until 1 January I, and I think @Pulpstar, would be much obliged.
    strangely my best position is for her to stop being leader between 25 December and 31 December, as this is an (unintentional and very unlikely) overlap in my bet and its cover.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think most voters accept May has got the only Deal available from the EU and Corbyn is exploiting the situation for political reasons rather than because he has any clear differences with May's Deal

    May has taken what the EU gave her - nothing.
    Rubbish. May has got an end to free movement and a temporary Customs Union against the norm, it is fanatics like you determined to send us over the cliff with No Deal
    She hasn’t got an end to free movement because there is an important caveat on immigration to what she actually has agreed saying immigration is still up for negotiation in the trade negotiations.The temporary customs union is because she hasn’t got any clue how to satisfy the EU on the Irish border, and there are no signs it can be ever satisfied, leads to a permanent one if we go into the backstop and can’t get out.

    I’d rather have a FTA myself with complete freedom to regulate our domestic economy as we see fit. That’s fairly standard amongst civilised nations that respect the rule of law. However if the choice is no deal or no Brexit, I would prefer the first to the second.
    May has enabled the ending of free movement and got a temporary not permanent Customs Union. What future trade negotiations bring is for the future the Withdrawal Agreement is the status quo until any trade agreement agreed.

    As Barnier has confirmed there can only be a FTA for GB not the UK without a backstop for NI.

    No Deal means huge damage to the economy
    If the EU want to break up the U.K., there is no deal to be had. The EU doesn’t have that right and it’s only Remainers who would contemplate it.
    Total bollocks. If there is any blame for a threat to the UK Union Brexiteers and their infantile obsession own it.
    Yep - that’s very persuasive. No logic, no argument, no rationale - just Typically Remain thinking.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 22,057
    Dura_Ace said:

    Theresa May has negotiated really, really poorly and come up with a really, really poor deal.

    But.... Rather than offer her the tumbler of whisky and the pearl-handled, the Tory Party has voted to keep Theresa May as our Prime Minister.

    Theresa May comes with Theresa May's Shit Deal.

    So the Tory Party has voted for Theresa May's Shit Deal. They might not have thought that's what they were doing last Tuesday, but they will get there eventually. (Or else flounce off to form a new party that will get nowhere and whither away. Taking any form of Brexit with it.)

    Theresa May is not for Plan B, Plan C, Plan D. Theresa May is for Plan Theresa. And as the head of the government, she holds most of the cards to block Plan B, Plan C, Plan D.....

    I think I'd have to be at the level of SeanT 11am Drunk to make any sense of this.
    Or be Theresa May. It makes sense to her....
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 12,954
    edited December 2018

    On topic, I see nothing admirable about clinging to power for its own sake. What is she now trying to do?

    I presume May has realised that it's all FUBARed so she's making sure her 'legacy' will be of someone who went over & beyond the call of duty, stepped up to the plate, went the extra mile & all such similar bullshitterisms to ensure that the Brexit vote was honoured, and it's NOT her fault that it won't be. However since her analysis of what that Brexit vote meant barely went beyond it meaning Brexit, her hopes for kindly historical retrospection may be optimistic.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think most voters accept May has got the only Deal available from the EU and Corbyn is exploiting the situation for political reasons rather than because he has any clear differences with May's Deal

    May has taken what the EU gave her - nothing.
    Rubbish. May has got an end to free movement and a temporary Customs Union against the norm, it is fanatics like you determined to send us over the cliff with No Deal
    She hasn’t got an end to free movement because there is an important caveat on immigration to what she actually has agreed saying immigration is still up for negotiation in the trade negotiations.The temporary customs union is because she hasn’t got any clue how to satisfy the EU on the Irish border, and there are no signs it can be ever satisfied, leads to a permanent one if we go into the backstop and can’t get out.

    I’d rather have a FTA myself with complete freedom to regulate our domestic economy as we see fit. That’s fairly standard amongst civilised nations that respect the rule of law. However if the choice is no deal or no Brexit, I would prefer the first to the second.
    May has enabled the ending of free movement and got a temporary not permanent Customs Union. What future trade negotiations bring is for the future the Withdrawal Agreement is the status quo until any trade agreement agreed.

    As Barnier has confirmed there can only be a FTA for GB not the UK without a backstop for NI.

    No Deal means huge damage to the economy
    If the EU want to break up the U.K., there is no deal to be had. The EU doesn’t have that right and it’s only Remainers who would contemplate it.
    As the polls show it is No Deal that makes Scots most likely to vote for independence and a hard border in Ireland makes a united Ireland most likely

    There will be a hard border in Ireland if there is no deal. That will be because the EU and the ROI overplayed their hand. As for Scotland, who knows. It’s votes not polls that count and the last referendum and the last GE didn’t gothe SNP way.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 22,057
    edited December 2018
    Is there going to be any Brexit-related voting before the Parliament of Turkeys goes home for Christmas on Thursday?

    And when they do come back to the Meaningful Vote, are they going to scrub the first three days of consideration, and start the five days of scrutiny afresh? That kicks it a few days nearer to No Deal if so.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    US Senate votes to end military aid to the Saudis for their war in Yemen and blames Bin Salman for the death of James Khashoggi

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-46588036

    Is Britain still supporting the Saudis?
    Not after Khashoggi
    Funny business, war. 85,000 dead Yemeni children, not a peep. One dead journalist and suddenly all bets are off.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-46261983
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 40,941
    It is now clear why the man who didn't know we were an Island or why Calais is important to our trade was not a good Brexit secretary...



    Dumber than a bag of rocks
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think most voters accept May has got the only Deal available from the EU and Corbyn is exploiting the situation for political reasons rather than because he has any clear differences with May's Deal

    May has taken what the EU gave her - nothing.
    Rubbish. May has got an end to free movement and a temporary Customs Union against the norm, it is fanatics like you determined to send us over the cliff with No Deal
    She hasn’t got an end to free movement because there is an important caveat on immigration to what she actually has agreed saying immigration is still up for negotiation in the trade negotiations.The temporary customs union is because she hasn’t got any clue how to satisfy the EU on the Irish border, and there are no signs it can be ever satisfied, leads to a permanent one if we go into the backstop and can’t get out.

    I’d rather have a FTA myself with complete freedom to regulate our domestic economy as we see fit. That’s fairly standard amongst civilised nations that respect the rule of law. However if the choice is no deal or no Brexit, I would prefer the first to the second.
    May has enabled the ending of free movement and got a temporary not permanent Customs Union. What future trade negotiations bring is for the future the Withdrawal Agreement is the status quo until any trade agreement agreed.

    As Barnier has confirmed there can only be a FTA for GB not the UK without a backstop for NI.

    No Deal means huge damage to the economy
    If the EU want to break up the U.K., there is no deal to be had. The EU doesn’t have that right and it’s only Remainers who would contemplate it.
    Uhuh.

    'Leave voters would rather lose Northern Ireland than give up the benefits of Brexit'

    https://tinyurl.com/y72lqs85

    'Most English Tory voters would be happy to see UK break up as price of Brexit, survey suggests '

    https://tinyurl.com/ya244klu

  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    US Senate votes to end military aid to the Saudis for their war in Yemen and blames Bin Salman for the death of James Khashoggi

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-46588036

    Is Britain still supporting the Saudis?
    Not after Khashoggi
    Funny business, war. 85,000 dead Yemeni children, not a peep. One dead journalist and suddenly all bets are off.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-46261983
    Not that odd at all. One dead of "us" hits us more than a statistic about dead "them". Always has been the case.

    Normally "us" entails Brits, or westerners in general perhaps. But to the news media who shape the agenda a journalist is "us" too.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 2,687
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    US Senate votes to end military aid to the Saudis for their war in Yemen and blames Bin Salman for the death of James Khashoggi

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-46588036

    Is Britain still supporting the Saudis?
    Not after Khashoggi
    There are still 20+ RAF officers in Saudi seconded to BAE on the Typhoon and Hawk programs. The Saudi Hawk production line is starting up and they are still getting another 48 Typhoons so that's a funny sort of not supporting.
  • On topic, I see nothing admirable about clinging to power for its own sake. What is she now trying to do?

    What do the Tory MPs who have confidence in Theresa May's leadership imagine the Prime Minister is trying to do?


  • (Snipped for length with apologies)

    Hindsight is wonderful, and the question comes whether the decisions she made that led to the 'mistakes' were reasonable decisions at the time. Such brilliant brains as IDS might have avoided the mistakes she made, but might have made absolute howlers in other areas.

    I would say two things:

    1) It is clear that too many Brexiteers saw Brexit as being 'easy', and had utterly unrealistic views on what was possible or feasible - and I fear this would have carried through into negotiations, and potentially been disastrous for them.

    2) Too many Brexiteers don't want a deal. Putting them in charge of negotiations would have been disastrous. And the ones who wanted a deal would have run into the same problems as May has in selling it to the likes of the ERG.

    Both your points are straw men. The point at hand is that there are ways in which May could very easily have improved her hand and made the whole process far better for the UK without actually making it much worse for the EU.

    1. She could have made definite plans for a No Deal so she was arguing from a far stronger position. This would have involved spending money but given that her plan from the start was (apparently) that we would be outside the CU and SM anyway, the infrastructure would still have been needed.

    2. She could have been consistent in her approach. As an example at the start of the negotiations she was talking about a unilateral guarantee to EU citizens in the UK. She then reneged on that and made their status a bargaining chip. Then finally she agreed that they should be given those guarantees. In the meantime she had caused huge uncertainty for EU citizens here and also annoyed the EU negotiators with her inconsistency.

    3. She should never have agreed to the timetabling that was set out by the EU at the start. It led directly to the crazy situation where we needed the backstop because we were negotiating the Irish border without actually knowing some basic fundamental information - what the trade situation would be after Brexit. There were plenty of people on both sides of the argument pointing out how stupid this was at the time.

    4. She should never have called the GE and then decided not to bother campaigning.

    5. She should not have made ending FoM the most important issue over and above all others.

    There are dozens of other examples big and small of where she screwed up. This is not hindsight as there were plenty of people pointing out these idiocies at the time.

    So yes, someone negotiating in good faith who actually knew what the issues were and cared about them could certainly have got a better deal that satisfied both sides. I would have trusted Ken Clarke, Keir Starmer, Michael Gove or Geoffrey Cox (to pick two from each side) to have done a better job in these negotiations
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 24,220

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    US Senate votes to end military aid to the Saudis for their war in Yemen and blames Bin Salman for the death of James Khashoggi

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-46588036

    Is Britain still supporting the Saudis?
    Not after Khashoggi
    Funny business, war. 85,000 dead Yemeni children, not a peep. One dead journalist and suddenly all bets are off.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-46261983
    Not that odd at all. One dead of "us" hits us more than a statistic about dead "them". Always has been the case.

    Normally "us" entails Brits, or westerners in general perhaps. But to the news media who shape the agenda a journalist is "us" too.
    I heard a story, which may or may not be apocryphal, that in the BBC TV newsroom in about 1980, there was a poster which read:

    "One Yorkshireman struck dead by lightning
    equals
    Five Irishmen killed by mudslide
    equals
    Ten Frenchmen in motorway pile up
    equals
    25 Americans in rail accident
    equals
    100 Brazilians in earthquake
    equals
    etc etc etc"
  • Everytime I think May is actually pretty good or at least best of the bunch she messes up - but then whenever I start thinking she's no good and must go she shows herself to be quite impressive.
  • XenonXenon Posts: 458
    May has hung on for a few years, but has she really achieved anything?

    The deal she came back with she could have probably got in the first few months (she wasted most of the time demanding things from the EU that she eventually capitulated on), so she has basically just run the clock down for almost 2 years without getting a deal that can pass through parliament.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    US Senate votes to end military aid to the Saudis for their war in Yemen and blames Bin Salman for the death of James Khashoggi

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-46588036

    Is Britain still supporting the Saudis?
    Not after Khashoggi
    Funny business, war. 85,000 dead Yemeni children, not a peep. One dead journalist and suddenly all bets are off.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-46261983
    There is a difference between civilians being caught in the crossfire of a military conflict and a country abusing diplomatic privileges to torture and murder a civilian in an embassy. Yes, both are bad. One can still be worse.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 1,955
    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    May doing anything now to ram her deal down our throats.

    New EU referendum would break faith with Britons, May to warn MPs http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46586673

    She is permitted to argue her case, I fail to see the issue. I think she should try something else and I still think she will, but some people, not you, bleat about May forcing X or refusing to do Y where Y us their preferred option (And mine to for that matter) and seem to be saying that even though no option seems to have a majority it's an outrage that she won't swing behind one of those other non starter options. I think it's s mistake, and she is not helping much anymore, but the whinging from some that she won't just give them their chance to remain, or that she risks no deal (which was risked by parliament as a whole and still is) is often very transparent, especially when from those who are usually more convincing.
    You seem to apply very strange standards to Brexit discourse. Yes, people complain when a politician's policy positions don't match up with their own. That's the basis for most political discussion. But apparently we shouldn't be transparent about that and instead should hide it behind a pretence of neutrality? Why?
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 1,314
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    US Senate votes to end military aid to the Saudis for their war in Yemen and blames Bin Salman for the death of James Khashoggi

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-46588036

    Is Britain still supporting the Saudis?
    Not after Khashoggi
    Funny business, war. 85,000 dead Yemeni children, not a peep. One dead journalist and suddenly all bets are off.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-46261983
    Not that odd at all. One dead of "us" hits us more than a statistic about dead "them". Always has been the case.

    Normally "us" entails Brits, or westerners in general perhaps. But to the news media who shape the agenda a journalist is "us" too.
    I heard a story, which may or may not be apocryphal, that in the BBC TV newsroom in about 1980, there was a poster which read:

    "One Yorkshireman struck dead by lightning
    equals
    Five Irishmen killed by mudslide
    equals
    Ten Frenchmen in motorway pile up
    equals
    25 Americans in rail accident
    equals
    100 Brazilians in earthquake
    equals
    etc etc etc"
    Quite possibly true, but surely hung up ironically rather than as a BBC policy directive.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 1,955

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    US Senate votes to end military aid to the Saudis for their war in Yemen and blames Bin Salman for the death of James Khashoggi

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-46588036

    Is Britain still supporting the Saudis?
    Not after Khashoggi
    Funny business, war. 85,000 dead Yemeni children, not a peep. One dead journalist and suddenly all bets are off.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-46261983
    There is a difference between civilians being caught in the crossfire of a military conflict and a country abusing diplomatic privileges to torture and murder a civilian in an embassy. Yes, both are bad. One can still be worse.
    I'm going to go out on a limb and say the genocide is worse.
  • rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    US Senate votes to end military aid to the Saudis for their war in Yemen and blames Bin Salman for the death of James Khashoggi

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-46588036

    Is Britain still supporting the Saudis?
    Not after Khashoggi
    Funny business, war. 85,000 dead Yemeni children, not a peep. One dead journalist and suddenly all bets are off.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-46261983
    Not that odd at all. One dead of "us" hits us more than a statistic about dead "them". Always has been the case.

    Normally "us" entails Brits, or westerners in general perhaps. But to the news media who shape the agenda a journalist is "us" too.
    I heard a story, which may or may not be apocryphal, that in the BBC TV newsroom in about 1980, there was a poster which read:

    "One Yorkshireman struck dead by lightning
    equals
    Five Irishmen killed by mudslide
    equals
    Ten Frenchmen in motorway pile up
    equals
    25 Americans in rail accident
    equals
    100 Brazilians in earthquake
    equals
    etc etc etc"
    The original title of Drop The Dead Donkey was ‘Dead Belgians Don’t Count’
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 24,220
    edited December 2018

    I am just not sure she is competent. At some point you need to accept she is not a good leader. The economic news is really bad today. Retail is dying and exports are struggling especially outside Europe. May be hard to avoid a recession

    its the same across the world, this isnt just a UK issue
    The global demand picture is worsening.

    But we have a few specific negatives, in particular our reliance on consumer spending, and very low household savings rates. The fear for the UK is that falling house prices results in falling consumer confidence, and therefore rising household savings rates and lower retail sales.*

    The risk is that we enter into a negative feedback loop, where falling confidence leads to ever higher savings rates.

    The irony is that this problem is essentially nothing to do with Brexit.

    * All those headlines are from today.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 1,314

    On topic, I see nothing admirable about clinging to power for its own sake. What is she now trying to do?

    What do the Tory MPs who have confidence in Theresa May's leadership imagine the Prime Minister is trying to do?
    I imagine they are quite happy with her policies of helping the party's cronies while squeezing the poor, and don't want to do anything to risk letting Labour in.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    US Senate votes to end military aid to the Saudis for their war in Yemen and blames Bin Salman for the death of James Khashoggi

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-46588036

    Is Britain still supporting the Saudis?
    Not after Khashoggi
    Funny business, war. 85,000 dead Yemeni children, not a peep. One dead journalist and suddenly all bets are off.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-46261983
    There is a difference between civilians being caught in the crossfire of a military conflict and a country abusing diplomatic privileges to torture and murder a civilian in an embassy. Yes, both are bad. One can still be worse.
    I'm going to go out on a limb and say the genocide is worse.
    What is your opinion on the RAF bombing campaign of German cities in WWII?
  • Mr. Dadge, ha.

    Does remind me of the BBC giving more coverage, and the live pictures, of half an inch of snow in London when south Wales had a foot of the stuff.
  • rcs1000 said:

    I am just not sure she is competent. At some point you need to accept she is not a good leader. The economic news is really bad today. Retail is dying and exports are struggling especially outside Europe. May be hard to avoid a recession

    its the same across the world, this isnt just a UK issue
    The global demand picture is worsening.

    But we have a few specific negatives, in particular our reliance on consumer spending, and very low household savings rates. The fear for the UK is that falling house prices results in falling consumer confidence, and therefore rising household savings rates and lower retail sales.*

    The risk is that we enter into a negative feedback loop, where falling confidence leads to ever higher savings rates.

    The irony is that this problem is essentially nothing to do with Brexit.

    * All those headlines are from today.
    You seem to have household savings rates as both a good and bad thing. Surely the question is whether household spending (ie not saving) fuels the domestic economy more or less than it sucks in imports?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 9,839

    Mr. Dadge, ha.

    Does remind me of the BBC giving more coverage, and the live pictures, of half an inch of snow in London when south Wales had a foot of the stuff.

    Bad stuff in California seems to get a disproportional amount of coverage on our TVs.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 22,517


    Both your points are straw men. The point at hand is that there are ways in which May could very easily have improved her hand and made the whole process far better for the UK without actually making it much worse for the EU.

    1. She could have made definite plans for a No Deal so she was arguing from a far stronger position. This would have involved spending money but given that her plan from the start was (apparently) that we would be outside the CU and SM anyway, the infrastructure would still have been needed.

    2. She could have been consistent in her approach. As an example at the start of the negotiations she was talking about a unilateral guarantee to EU citizens in the UK. She then reneged on that and made their status a bargaining chip. (Snip)

    3. She should never have agreed to the timetabling that was set out by the EU at the start. It led directly to the crazy situation where we needed the backstop because we were negotiating the Irish border without actually knowing some basic fundamental information - what the trade situation would be after Brexit. There were plenty of people on both sides of the argument pointing out how stupid this was at the time.

    4. She should never have called the GE and then decided not to bother campaigning.

    5. She should not have made ending FoM the most important issue over and above all others.

    There are dozens of other examples big and small of where she screwed up. This is not hindsight as there were plenty of people pointing out these idiocies at the time.

    So yes, someone negotiating in good faith who actually knew what the issues were and cared about them could certainly have got a better deal that satisfied both sides. I would have trusted Ken Clarke, Keir Starmer, Michael Gove or Geoffrey Cox (to pick two from each side) to have done a better job in these negotiations

    You've repeatedly claimed that the problem was that May was a remainer, and that a leaver would have done much better. Are you altering that position?

    And the points are not straw men: they're critically relevant to the question of whether a leaver (or indeed anyone) could have got a 'better' deal.

    You are also talking with hindsight, which is a wonderful thing. There was also f'all chance of the people you mention being put in charge of negotiations - and you knew that before the referendum. You were more likely to get (say) IDS or Boris doing the negotiating - do you think they'd have done better?

    Brexit has been proved to be horribly difficult and messy. Some of us were saying that it would be so before the referendum. I understand why you want to think it needn't have been so, but you seem to have precious little evidence for it aside from some perverse faith in the skills of Brexiteers; a faith that goes against all available evidence.
This discussion has been closed.