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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,541

    The media seems to be taking the lazy option of talking about a second referendum rather than investigating the implications of the current law which means we will be leaving the EU on March 28th without having a withdrawal agreement or trade deal in place.

    At least with a WTO deal we can start negotiating the divorce bill in parallel with a future trade agreement, a better negotiating position for the UK.

    Point of clarification. With what organisation do we strike this 'WTO deal'?
    Yes, as is repeated ad nauseam, 'WTO deal' is utterly meaningless. Any trade deal we strike while we are a member of the WTO is a 'WTO deal'.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,917
    edited December 2018

    Higher levels of tuition fees require higher levels of lending - which will now show up as billions more on the deficit.

    This will provide an incentive for the government to reduce the level of tuition fees, allowing them to limit the negative impact on the deficit.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/education-46591500

    There a bit of a logical flaw in bbc argument. Cut fees to cut the deficit, but if you cut fees either unis are going to have to do more with less (and for science £9k already doesn’t cover it) or government will have to provide more direct funding which if cause will push up the deficit.

    Tuition fees have increased both the supply and demand for graduates. I'm glad the accounting fiction is being dealt with anyway.
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    Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634

    Brom said:

    We give our politicians hell and yet no Leaver on here says "I do not want a 2nd referendum because I do not think Leave would win it". Instead we get all sorts of obfuscations and such instead of basic honesty.

    Have the referendum. We know exactly what the options are now as opposed to nebulous sunny upland stuff. There are exactly three of them.

    -No Deal
    -May's Deal
    -Remain

    I am an arch-Remainer (apparently!!) but I will abide by the result however it turns out.

    I would suggest that this is a PR vote - select 1st, 2nd and 3rd Preference. Put all three on the ballot.

    Yes but no one trusts you. Plenty of MPs such as David Lammy said they would respect the result and voted to have the referendum and yet on June 24th 2016 they started work to overturn it. I think very few leave voters would respect the result of a hypothetical 2nd ref win or lose and I suspect most like myself would just boycott it to ensure it had zero worth.
    Not sure about Lammy, but the vote has been respected.
    No it hasn't, because what was voted for hasn't happened.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,917
    Donny43 said:

    Brom said:

    We give our politicians hell and yet no Leaver on here says "I do not want a 2nd referendum because I do not think Leave would win it". Instead we get all sorts of obfuscations and such instead of basic honesty.

    Have the referendum. We know exactly what the options are now as opposed to nebulous sunny upland stuff. There are exactly three of them.

    -No Deal
    -May's Deal
    -Remain

    I am an arch-Remainer (apparently!!) but I will abide by the result however it turns out.

    I would suggest that this is a PR vote - select 1st, 2nd and 3rd Preference. Put all three on the ballot.

    Yes but no one trusts you. Plenty of MPs such as David Lammy said they would respect the result and voted to have the referendum and yet on June 24th 2016 they started work to overturn it. I think very few leave voters would respect the result of a hypothetical 2nd ref win or lose and I suspect most like myself would just boycott it to ensure it had zero worth.
    Not sure about Lammy, but the vote has been respected.
    No it hasn't, because what was voted for hasn't happened.
    Say we had two years to elect a Gov't before it came in, and Corbyn won on a hard left platform....
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,710
    Pulpstar said:

    I think May is actually a leaver now. And she has the zeal of the converted. Today's bleating from Maugham make me believe this is the case more today than I was sure yesterday.

    May has been a Leaver since the referendum. While the result was and still is close, Conservatives are generally and officially pro Brexit. May represents them. She is a highly partisan politician who is completely uninterested in what people think who are not Conservative.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,541
    The US version of blue on blue... red on red ?

    https://twitter.com/jpodhoretz/status/1074397833309114368
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    My position is changing 3 times a week on Brexit, and twice on sundays. It means I'm able to see it from all sides, and today I'm in the mood for a hard Brexit :)

    I know what you mean. I'm a deal person (I love the deal) but I do have occasional little bouts of 2nd ref and WTO. Not today though.
    Yes I'm in favour of a deal, but it doesn't look like passing the HoC.
    And to think if TM deal passed the pound would rocket, investment would rise, business would be delighted as would EU residents here and UK ones in the EU, planes will fly, holidays can be booked and health cards continued, roaming will continue and we are at the start of a period of intense trade negotiations

    TM could arrange an orderly succession and the Country would avoid a horribly divisive referendum

    That is all I want along with millions of others

    But we have the most pathetic tribal politicians I can ever recall taking us to hell on a handcart
    Labour is clearly acting in their own party interests. Many on the Tory benches might ask (if the deal is rejected) why the hell shouldn't they.
    But the Tories have been doing that from the moment Cameron promised a Referendum to fend off the threat from UKIP.
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    Sean_F said:

    Brom said:

    We give our politicians hell and yet no Leaver on here says "I do not want a 2nd referendum because I do not think Leave would win it". Instead we get all sorts of obfuscations and such instead of basic honesty.

    Have the referendum. We know exactly what the options are now as opposed to nebulous sunny upland stuff. There are exactly three of them.

    -No Deal
    -May's Deal
    -Remain

    I am an arch-Remainer (apparently!!) but I will abide by the result however it turns out.

    I would suggest that this is a PR vote - select 1st, 2nd and 3rd Preference. Put all three on the ballot.

    Yes but no one trusts you. Plenty of MPs such as David Lammy said they would respect the result and voted to have the referendum and yet on June 24th 2016 they started work to overturn it. I think very few leave voters would respect the result of a hypothetical 2nd ref win or lose and I suspect most like myself would just boycott it to ensure it had zero worth.
    That is your prerogative (not to trust). I reserve my prerogative not to trust any advocates for Leave or to "respect" the vote. Why should I "respect" the existing referendum vote? It was a thin majority in favour of a notion that was inadequately explained, exaggerated or downright lied about ( probably by both sides).

    It will leave a majority of people in this country significantly worse off, and has the capacity to irrevocably damaged the country and probably cause the dissolution of the UK. It is supported by Donald Trump, Nigel Farage and Arron Banks and was almost certainly encouraged and partially financed by Vladimir Putin. There is no reason for anyone, least of all anyone that voted against this madness, to "respect" what was a corrupt process. It has, in my opinion, very little more democratic legitimacy than a Zimbabwean General Election.
    Intelligent people respect votes that have gone against them, because it's preferable to face one's opponents on the hustings than on the battlefield.

    I don't like it when a Labour government gets elected, but I accept that they have the right to govern.
    I have always respected votes at a GE even when I have not liked the result. A GE is reversible and therefore has significant legitimacy. However, I would not respect the result if people were conned into supporting the BNP. The referendum was corrupt on a number of levels so one is not obliged to "respect" it, and such an expectation is somewhat silly. We may have to live with the consequences of Brexit, but respecting something that was achieved through slight of hand with no real opportunity of reversal deserves no respect, so on that I will have to respectfully disagree with your opinion.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,187
    IanB2 said:

    After the fiasco of the past two years and the disastrous options in front of us, of course it is desperation to remain. Opinion has changed faced with the reality. Nevertheless it must be done via a vote and if people instead want to leave with the deal, so be it.

    Not quite the honesty I was looking for albeit close. It is JUST desperation to remain.

    No deal would be disastrous but the WA in no way merits that description. It settles accounts, protects citizen's rights, guarantees no border in Ireland, gives us a long and extendable transition period to negotiate the FTA, and provides for various different outcomes for that FTA. It is leaving the EU in the least economically damaging way that is practically possible.

    Opinion has changed? Dunno about that. The polls are about where they were a week before the 2016 referendum.
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    It was mentioned on 5 live last night that TM has spoken at the dispatch box for 12 hours, ex PMQ's, on brexit over the last few weeks

    Meanwhile Corbyn is not to be seen, hiding in an Edinburgh community centre with a ban on reporters.

    That sounds more like Theresa May at the 2017 election.
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    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578
    Mortimer said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Downing Street say 'no plans' for votes on Brexit alternatives despite Cabinet revolt

    https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/foreign-affairs/brexit/news/100616/downing-street-say-no-plans-votes-brexit-alternatives

    Note at the bottom of the article:

    a spokesperson for the European Commission today made clear that Brussels is not willing to "reopen" talks on her deal.

    "The EU Council has given the clarifications that were possible at this stage so no further meetings with the UK are foreseen," they added.

    So basically no reason not to crack on and for parliament to vote on May's deal before Christmas.

    Substantively you're correct BUT

    Moving the MV to January focuses minds. It also reduces the time available for political chicanery from those opposed to the deal on the remain side.
    That is a necessary function of both democratic legitimacy and party management now; the Ultra-Remain wing endanger both far more than the ERG.
    Brexit was a bad decision. The fact that it was taken by a referendum does not make it a good decision. History is littered with examples of bad decisions taken by referendums, Brexit is merely the latest in a long list.

    And in a democracy it is perfectly legitimate to campaign against bad policies, the fact that these policies were agreed in a referendum does not close down debate.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,541
    Mortimer said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Downing Street say 'no plans' for votes on Brexit alternatives despite Cabinet revolt

    https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/foreign-affairs/brexit/news/100616/downing-street-say-no-plans-votes-brexit-alternatives

    Note at the bottom of the article:

    a spokesperson for the European Commission today made clear that Brussels is not willing to "reopen" talks on her deal.

    "The EU Council has given the clarifications that were possible at this stage so no further meetings with the UK are foreseen," they added.

    So basically no reason not to crack on and for parliament to vote on May's deal before Christmas.

    Substantively you're correct BUT

    Moving the MV to January focuses minds. It also reduces the time available for political chicanery from those opposed to the deal on the remain side.
    That is a necessary function of both democratic legitimacy....
    Yeah, right.
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Donny43 said:

    Brom said:

    We give our politicians hell and yet no Leaver on here says "I do not want a 2nd referendum because I do not think Leave would win it". Instead we get all sorts of obfuscations and such instead of basic honesty.

    Have the referendum. We know exactly what the options are now as opposed to nebulous sunny upland stuff. There are exactly three of them.

    -No Deal
    -May's Deal
    -Remain

    I am an arch-Remainer (apparently!!) but I will abide by the result however it turns out.

    I would suggest that this is a PR vote - select 1st, 2nd and 3rd Preference. Put all three on the ballot.

    Yes but no one trusts you. Plenty of MPs such as David Lammy said they would respect the result and voted to have the referendum and yet on June 24th 2016 they started work to overturn it. I think very few leave voters would respect the result of a hypothetical 2nd ref win or lose and I suspect most like myself would just boycott it to ensure it had zero worth.
    Not sure about Lammy, but the vote has been respected.
    No it hasn't, because what was voted for hasn't happened.
    I'll just repeat what I've been saying for a long time. You can't have too much democracy. It's up to the pro-EU folk to conjure up a second referendum by whatever procedural means are practicable and then we can have another vote, which Leave will win.

    Ten minutes on here or Twitter will demonstrate that the Remain campaigns can't stop the 'old, thick, racist' subtext of their messaging, which is going to do them a power of no good.

    I see a second referendum as win-win. If Remain, by some chance, win...we'll have dodged a bullet, won't we? If Leave wins, then people like Andrew Adonis will shut up for at least thirty fucking seconds, which is a prize worth having imo.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,594
    AndyJS said:
    I reckon that we are about 15 years behind on that curve. County Lines and cheap Chinese synthetic opiods will do the same here. Dealers have adopted the gig economy and JIT delivery systems. Like in the US, it isn't just a ghetto thing anymore.
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    Brom said:

    We give our politicians hell and yet no Leaver on here says "I do not want a 2nd referendum because I do not think Leave would win it". Instead we get all sorts of obfuscations and such instead of basic honesty.

    Have the referendum. We know exactly what the options are now as opposed to nebulous sunny upland stuff. There are exactly three of them.

    -No Deal
    -May's Deal
    -Remain

    I am an arch-Remainer (apparently!!) but I will abide by the result however it turns out.

    I would suggest that this is a PR vote - select 1st, 2nd and 3rd Preference. Put all three on the ballot.

    Yes but no one trusts you. Plenty of MPs such as David Lammy said they would respect the result and voted to have the referendum and yet on June 24th 2016 they started work to overturn it. I think very few leave voters would respect the result of a hypothetical 2nd ref win or lose and I suspect most like myself would just boycott it to ensure it had zero worth.
    Not sure about Lammy, but the vote has been respected. The Government has tried its damndest to implement the result, but it has proved beyond it. It may well have been an impossible task, and you may criticise the Government for offering a referendum where one of the choices was unattainable but you cannot say it hasn't tried.

    In the circumstances it would be entirely reasonable for HMG to return to the electorate and say 'this is the best we could do, are you sure you still want to go ahead?' A good deal of time has elapsed since the referendum. People may have changed their minds, especially in the light of what has happened since. It makes perfect sense, especially on a matter as important as this, to offer the public a second chance in the light all it now knows.


    Leavers have not done a very good job of selling Brexit since the vote. There is every likelihood that it could fail second time round, but that is not certain. If Brexit really is worth having, the Leave campaign should be able to convince the doubters now that everyone is more familiar with the pros and cons. The truth, I suspect however, is that Leavers have no confidence in their case. They pulled it off two years ago with some dubious arguments and techniques, and are far from sure they could do so again.
    Indeed. As Margaret Thatcher would have said, "They are frit"
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    Mortimer said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Downing Street say 'no plans' for votes on Brexit alternatives despite Cabinet revolt

    https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/foreign-affairs/brexit/news/100616/downing-street-say-no-plans-votes-brexit-alternatives

    Note at the bottom of the article:

    a spokesperson for the European Commission today made clear that Brussels is not willing to "reopen" talks on her deal.

    "The EU Council has given the clarifications that were possible at this stage so no further meetings with the UK are foreseen," they added.

    So basically no reason not to crack on and for parliament to vote on May's deal before Christmas.

    Substantively you're correct BUT

    Moving the MV to January focuses minds. It also reduces the time available for political chicanery from those opposed to the deal on the remain side.
    That is a necessary function of both democratic legitimacy and party management now; the Ultra-Remain wing endanger both far more than the ERG.
    Brexit was a bad decision. The fact that it was taken by a referendum does not make it a good decision. History is littered with examples of bad decisions taken by referendums, Brexit is merely the latest in a long list.

    And in a democracy it is perfectly legitimate to campaign against bad policies, the fact that these policies were agreed in a referendum does not close down debate.
    I don't think we need to get bogged down in principle here.

    The polls for Leave/Remain are no better for Remain than they were a fortnight before the referendum.

    Second referendum supports are almost all remain supporters who seem to want to argue about a referendum instead of convincing people that Brexit is a Bad Idea (tm)
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    AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    John_M said:

    If Leave wins, then people like Andrew Adonis will shut up for at least thirty fucking seconds, which is a prize worth having imo.

    Must say, even if the economy crashes and we all go back to the stone age, that alone would be worth it.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,710
    The point is, you need a full-blown crisis to get people to agree a deal that is substantially worse than what they have already got and what they thought they were going to get. This is the inevitable consequence of the referendum.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,658
    Donny43 said:

    Nigelb said:


    Which is why some of us back a second referendum with this format:
    A first yes/no vote on the deal we have.
    Yes means we leave, on the terms of May’s deal.

    A second vote on the ballot - if you turn down the WA, would you choose to leave with no deal or remain ?

    Such a vote more than respects the referendum result, and would tell us if the electorate are still prepared to leave, with or without a deal. We remain only if both are rejected.

    I would vote to accept May’s deal; and if that were to be rejected, remain.

    Your approach required Remainers to take a gamble. If they stick to their principles they'd vote no to the first question, but that risks No Deal (though tbh I suspect Remain versus No Deal would leade to victory for Remain).
    Yup, it's backwards. The non-bonkers way to do this with 2 rounds is:
    1) What is Brexit? Deal or No-Deal.
    2) Now that you know what Brexit is, do you want to do it? Remain or Leave.
    Question 1 can be answered by parliament and question 2 put to the public in a referendum.
    Parliament is refusing to answer question 1...
    Parliament is not being asked question 1.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,056

    The polls for Leave/Remain are no better for Remain than they were a fortnight before the referendum.

    That's not true. We've had several polls that put Remain in a better position than at any time during the 2016 campaign.
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,850
    Afternoon all :)

    Round and round we go, it seems, for the next two or three weeks getting nowhere slowly.

    I'm in rare agreement with the Prime Minister - I'm opposed to a new vote as we are. I was, at one point, supportive of a vote on a final package but the ambiguity of rejection has left the binary option meaningless.

    Anyway, that has been trashed here ad infinitum and ad nauseam.

    I note the YouGov figures - I'd love to know what the voting intentions would be if the Conservatives revoked A50.

    The thread reveals the huge divergence between the worlds of the politically aware (or obsessed) and everyone else. I wouldn't call May "decisive" - she bottled the first meaningful vote as an example. She twists and turns as someone once described it, "like a twisty turny thing".

    However, the Prime Minister has enjoyed saturation coverage and her apparent shouting at Europe will always be popular with some of the crowd. There will be a sympathy or pity vote for her as well. We also have the continuous warnings of disaster if we exit without a Deal on 29/3/19. It now appears we can't book any foreign holidays (Thomas Cook seem to have enjoyed some good early booking numbers). My hotelier friend in Cornwall thinks all the alarmist talk will mean a bumper summer for British resorts next summer as we all opt for a staycation rather than paying €7 to go to Calais.

    Clearly, May still believes between the rock of revoking A50 and the hard place of No Deal there is a place for her Deal and the immediacy of disaster (actual or otherwise) will concentrate minds sufficiently to allow the Deal to clear the Commons next month. IF the Government then falls in a No Confidence vote she will go to the country on a manifesto of a successful negotiation, a pledge delivered and seek a fresh mandate.

    She has survived so far due to the inadequacies of her divided opponents starting with Jeremy Corbyn - but I don't think said opponents could have played a different game. She has used her management skills to defer confrontations she cannot win and divide opponents she cannot placate. She relies on the Conservative Party's secret weapon "loyalty" but in truth removing her changes nothing. Better to get everything resolved one way or another and then send her into the wilderness carrying the sins of the past.
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    Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634

    Donny43 said:

    Nigelb said:


    Which is why some of us back a second referendum with this format:
    A first yes/no vote on the deal we have.
    Yes means we leave, on the terms of May’s deal.

    A second vote on the ballot - if you turn down the WA, would you choose to leave with no deal or remain ?

    Such a vote more than respects the referendum result, and would tell us if the electorate are still prepared to leave, with or without a deal. We remain only if both are rejected.

    I would vote to accept May’s deal; and if that were to be rejected, remain.

    Your approach required Remainers to take a gamble. If they stick to their principles they'd vote no to the first question, but that risks No Deal (though tbh I suspect Remain versus No Deal would leade to victory for Remain).
    Yup, it's backwards. The non-bonkers way to do this with 2 rounds is:
    1) What is Brexit? Deal or No-Deal.
    2) Now that you know what Brexit is, do you want to do it? Remain or Leave.
    Question 1 can be answered by parliament and question 2 put to the public in a referendum.
    Parliament is refusing to answer question 1...
    Parliament is not being asked question 1.
    That;s because they've made clear that their answer is "neither". Which isn't an acceptable answer.
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    I have always respected votes at a GE even when I have not liked the result. A GE is reversible and therefore has significant legitimacy. However, I would not respect the result if people were conned into supporting the BNP. The referendum was corrupt on a number of levels so one is not obliged to "respect" it, and such an expectation is somewhat silly. We may have to live with the consequences of Brexit, but respecting something that was achieved through slight of hand with no real opportunity of reversal deserves no respect, so on that I will have to respectfully disagree with your opinion.

    I see you are once again spouting utter bollocks in defence of the principle of 'I only like democracy if I am winning'.
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    FF43 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I think May is actually a leaver now. And she has the zeal of the converted. Today's bleating from Maugham make me believe this is the case more today than I was sure yesterday.

    May has been a Leaver since the referendum. While the result was and still is close, Conservatives are generally and officially pro Brexit. May represents them. She is a highly partisan politician who is completely uninterested in what people think who are not Conservative.
    I think that may be unfair, and possibly inaccurate. I worked as a volunteer for the Conservative Party for quite sometime, and most of the better politicians I met genuinely had the interests of all citizens, supporters or otherwise, in mind. That may be true of many in the Labour Party too. As for the Conservative Party being generally and officially pro-Brexit, that is not much more the case than Labour. Both parties are substantially split on the subject. There are a large number of Conservative politicians, if not a majority, that think Brexit is a massive balls-up, and I would have to agree with them.
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited December 2018
    Brom said:

    We give our politicians hell and yet no Leaver on here says "I do not want a 2nd referendum because I do not think Leave would win it". Instead we get all sorts of obfuscations and such instead of basic honesty.

    Have the referendum. We know exactly what the options are now as opposed to nebulous sunny upland stuff. There are exactly three of them.

    -No Deal
    -May's Deal
    -Remain

    I am an arch-Remainer (apparently!!) but I will abide by the result however it turns out.

    I would suggest that this is a PR vote - select 1st, 2nd and 3rd Preference. Put all three on the ballot.

    Yes but no one trusts you. Plenty of MPs such as David Lammy said they would respect the result and voted to have the referendum and yet on June 24th 2016 they started work to overturn it. I think very few leave voters would respect the result of a hypothetical 2nd ref win or lose and I suspect most like myself would just boycott it to ensure it had zero worth.
    Surely I should be trusted? I never said I would accept the result and I never have. Search back through all my postings and you will never find me accepting the result. Quite the opposite.

    I have said that if there is a 2nd Ref on the concrete proposals we now have then I will repsect that result, but I have noting but contempt for the fairy-dust / unicorn / cherry-picking / cakeism / vacuous lies that posed as a campaign last time.
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    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578

    Mortimer said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Downing Street say 'no plans' for votes on Brexit alternatives despite Cabinet revolt

    https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/foreign-affairs/brexit/news/100616/downing-street-say-no-plans-votes-brexit-alternatives

    Note at the bottom of the article:

    a spokesperson for the European Commission today made clear that Brussels is not willing to "reopen" talks on her deal.

    "The EU Council has given the clarifications that were possible at this stage so no further meetings with the UK are foreseen," they added.

    So basically no reason not to crack on and for parliament to vote on May's deal before Christmas.

    Substantively you're correct BUT

    Moving the MV to January focuses minds. It also reduces the time available for political chicanery from those opposed to the deal on the remain side.
    That is a necessary function of both democratic legitimacy and party management now; the Ultra-Remain wing endanger both far more than the ERG.
    Brexit was a bad decision. The fact that it was taken by a referendum does not make it a good decision. History is littered with examples of bad decisions taken by referendums, Brexit is merely the latest in a long list.

    And in a democracy it is perfectly legitimate to campaign against bad policies, the fact that these policies were agreed in a referendum does not close down debate.
    I don't think we need to get bogged down in principle here.

    The polls for Leave/Remain are no better for Remain than they were a fortnight before the referendum.

    Second referendum supports are almost all remain supporters who seem to want to argue about a referendum instead of convincing people that Brexit is a Bad Idea (tm)
    Of course second referendum supporters want to overturn the Leave result. Are we supposed to believe that those who campaigned for a referendum before 2016 merely wanted to reaffirm UK membership of the EU? Nobody campaigns for a referendum purely as a theoretical exercise, they want a referendum because they think it will reveal popular support for their position.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited December 2018

    Second referendum supports are almost all remain supporters who seem to want to argue about a referendum instead of convincing people that Brexit is a Bad Idea (tm)

    That was true initially of the first movers of the idea, but I don't think it's true now. What has changed is the Leavers (or at least a prominent chunk of them, including some of the highest-profile figures in the Leave campaign) trashing the deal which would implement exactly what they campaigned for, to the extent of making it impossible to implement any vaguely-sane version of Brexit without a second referendum. That being the case, and since they are already shouting 'Betrayal!' at a government which is trying to do what they said they wanted, Brexit is no longer deliverable by parliament. So many people like me who fully respected the original referendum result, even if we thought it a mistake, have no choice but to look for a way out of the mess. A Revoke/Deal referendum might be such a way, still leaving the option for the public to confirm the original vote, but avoiding the brain-dead catastrophe of crashing out in utter chaos, which was most certainly not what the Leave campaign said it wanted in 2016.

    That's not to say that those who argue that a second referendum would be highly divisive and would give rise to justified resentment are wrong; they are not wrong, but crashing out with no deal would be worse, and no-one has a better idea which can get through parliament, unless Labour decides to play ball (which looks highly unlikely).
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    I have always respected votes at a GE even when I have not liked the result. A GE is reversible and therefore has significant legitimacy. However, I would not respect the result if people were conned into supporting the BNP. The referendum was corrupt on a number of levels so one is not obliged to "respect" it, and such an expectation is somewhat silly. We may have to live with the consequences of Brexit, but respecting something that was achieved through slight of hand with no real opportunity of reversal deserves no respect, so on that I will have to respectfully disagree with your opinion.

    I see you are once again spouting utter bollocks in defence of the principle of 'I only like democracy if I am winning'.
    Nope, I leave the spouting of bollocks to thickheads like you. Tell us what we are achieving from all of this please? The reality is that Brexit religious nutters like you are worried that there might be another referendum and hide behind your "will-o-the-people crap. Well if you are so sure, why are you scared of it? None of you have been able to articulate what Brexit actually is, let alone what benefits outweigh the massive damage, and you know that if you have to go to the people again you will probably lose your chance of your pathetic little jack-boot marching utopia!
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,974

    FF43 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I think May is actually a leaver now. And she has the zeal of the converted. Today's bleating from Maugham make me believe this is the case more today than I was sure yesterday.

    May has been a Leaver since the referendum. While the result was and still is close, Conservatives are generally and officially pro Brexit. May represents them. She is a highly partisan politician who is completely uninterested in what people think who are not Conservative.
    I think that may be unfair, and possibly inaccurate. I worked as a volunteer for the Conservative Party for quite sometime, and most of the better politicians I met genuinely had the interests of all citizens, supporters or otherwise, in mind. That may be true of many in the Labour Party too. As for the Conservative Party being generally and officially pro-Brexit, that is not much more the case than Labour. Both parties are substantially split on the subject. There are a large number of Conservative politicians, if not a majority, that think Brexit is a massive balls-up, and I would have to agree with them.
    I have no doubt that what you say about many Tory politicians, at whatever level, is true. I have, though, to agree with the remarks about Mrs May. She has only once given any indication of caring about what non Conservatives thought, in her "Nasty Party' speech.
    And I suspect that was because she was concerned that the Tories were letting the mask slip.
  • Options
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Has May resigned yet?
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,187
    FF43 said:

    Agree, but marginally less of a joke than Referendum #1 when the public got one page of unicorns and outright lies. Instead of 600 pages of tyre-hit-the-road treaty provisions.

    Damn right. It was a crazy exercise the primary purpose of which was to win the tory party a general election. Ironic that it now looks like destroying them.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,378
    edited December 2018
    Here we go.

    Rebellion Threat As 19 Tory MPs Demand That Theresa May Rules Out 'No Deal' Brexit

    Cross-party letter makes clear there is no majority for crashing out of the bloc.

    Theresa May faces fresh mutiny from her backbenchers after 19 Tory MPs signed a cross-party demand for the prime minister to rule out a no-deal Brexit.

    The letter to Downing Street, co-signed by Labour heavyweight Jack Dromey and May ally Caroline Spelman, underlines how there is no majority in parliament for the UK crashing out of the EU without an agreement.

    While it is Labour and SNP policy to block a no-deal exit, the significant number of Conservatives willing to rebel makes it clear that, even with the backing of the 11 DUP MPs, May could not win parliament’s backing.



    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/blue-on-blue-19-tory-mps-demand-theresa-may-rule-out-no-deal-brexit_uk_5c17a3efe4b05d7e5d841f77
  • Options
    Scott_P said:
    It will be interesting to see how the government allocates these emergency funds, as that should highlight what it regards as the most salient dangers. I suspect starvation will be regarded as the biggest threat, so we'll have food-distribution tents erected in every high street. Presumably armed guards will also be stationed outside supermarkets to prevent looting.
  • Options
    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Has May resigned yet?

    Tin-erred Tess will not resign. Her fingers will have to be prised from their vice-like grip on the PM's desk
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,917

    Here we go.

    Rebellion Threat As 19 Tory MPs Demand That Theresa May Rules Out 'No Deal' Brexit

    Cross-party letter makes clear there is no majority for crashing out of the bloc.

    Theresa May faces fresh mutiny from her backbenchers after 19 Tory MPs signed a cross-party demand for the prime minister to rule out a no-deal Brexit.

    The letter to Downing Street, co-signed by Labour heavyweight Jack Dromey and May ally Caroline Spelman, underlines how there is no majority in parliament for the UK crashing out of the EU without an agreement.

    While it is Labour and SNP policy to block a no-deal exit, the significant number of Conservatives willing to rebel makes it clear that, even with the backing of the 11 DUP MPs, May could not win parliament’s backing.



    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/blue-on-blue-19-tory-mps-demand-theresa-may-rule-out-no-deal-brexit_uk_5c17a3efe4b05d7e5d841f77

    I bet all those 19 voted in favour of May staying on the other week too.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,658

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Has May resigned yet?

    The irony of May resigning while the PB Thread Header entitled "The magnificent resilience of TMay ploughing on relentlessly against all the odds" would be truly delicious!
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,975

    Brom said:

    We give our politicians hell and yet no Leaver on here says "I do not want a 2nd referendum because I do not think Leave would win it". Instead we get all sorts of obfuscations and such instead of basic honesty.

    Have the referendum. We know exactly what the options are now as opposed to nebulous sunny upland stuff. There are exactly three of them.

    -No Deal
    -May's Deal
    -Remain

    I am an arch-Remainer (apparently!!) but I will abide by the result however it turns out.

    I would suggest that this is a PR vote - select 1st, 2nd and 3rd Preference. Put all three on the ballot.

    Yes but no one trusts you. Plenty of MPs such as David Lammy said they would respect the result and voted to have the referendum and yet on June 24th 2016 they started work to overturn it. I think very few leave voters would respect the result of a hypothetical 2nd ref win or lose and I suspect most like myself would just boycott it to ensure it had zero worth.
    Surely I should be trusted? I never said I would accept the result and I never have. Search back through all my postings and you will never find me accepting the result. Quite the opposite.

    I have said that if there is a 2nd Ref on the concrete proposals we now have then I will repsect that result, but I have noting but contempt for the fairy-dust / unicorn / cherry-picking / cakeism / vacuous lies that posed as a campaign last time.
    I can understand the wish for a second referendum, and there are strong arguments for having one. But I cannot get beyond a feeling that it would be pointless: views have generally not changed, and even if remain did win (which is far from assured, given that views appear not to have shifted much) then it would be a marginal win and not solve anything. If there is a multi-choice referendum the chances are the uncertainty and message delivered by the voters would be even worse.

    Parliament should be the ones sorting this out IMO. Unfortunately that requires them to be adults ...
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,189
    Pulpstar said:

    Here we go.

    Rebellion Threat As 19 Tory MPs Demand That Theresa May Rules Out 'No Deal' Brexit

    Cross-party letter makes clear there is no majority for crashing out of the bloc.

    Theresa May faces fresh mutiny from her backbenchers after 19 Tory MPs signed a cross-party demand for the prime minister to rule out a no-deal Brexit.

    The letter to Downing Street, co-signed by Labour heavyweight Jack Dromey and May ally Caroline Spelman, underlines how there is no majority in parliament for the UK crashing out of the EU without an agreement.

    While it is Labour and SNP policy to block a no-deal exit, the significant number of Conservatives willing to rebel makes it clear that, even with the backing of the 11 DUP MPs, May could not win parliament’s backing.



    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/blue-on-blue-19-tory-mps-demand-theresa-may-rule-out-no-deal-brexit_uk_5c17a3efe4b05d7e5d841f77

    I bet all those 19 voted in favour of May staying on the other week too.
    Yep.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,056

    I can understand the wish for a second referendum, and there are strong arguments for having one. But I cannot get beyond a feeling that it would be pointless: views have generally not changed, and even if remain did win (which is far from assured, given that views appear not to have shifted much) then it would be a marginal win and not solve anything.

    You don't know that. The lesson from 2017 is that campaigns matter and can create a meaningful shift in opinion. There is no certainty at all about a second referendum leading to a marginal result. A decisive shift one way or another is absolutely possible, and would leave the country in a much better place politically.
  • Options
    Cancel HS2 now.

    HS2: MPs had 'enormously wrong' cost estimate, says whistleblower.

    An early cost estimate MPs had when they were approving the HS2 high-speed rail project was "enormously wrong", a former HS2 boss has told BBC Panorama.

    Doug Thornton said the costing underestimated the value of many properties HS2 needed to purchase along the proposed route and thousands more had not been budgeted for.

    Mr Thornton said the figure MPs saw was hundreds of millions of pounds too low. He was later dismissed.

    HS2 rejects claims MPs were misled.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46586603
  • Options

    Here we go.

    Rebellion Threat As 19 Tory MPs Demand That Theresa May Rules Out 'No Deal' Brexit

    Cross-party letter makes clear there is no majority for crashing out of the bloc.

    Theresa May faces fresh mutiny from her backbenchers after 19 Tory MPs signed a cross-party demand for the prime minister to rule out a no-deal Brexit.

    The letter to Downing Street, co-signed by Labour heavyweight Jack Dromey and May ally Caroline Spelman, underlines how there is no majority in parliament for the UK crashing out of the EU without an agreement.

    While it is Labour and SNP policy to block a no-deal exit, the significant number of Conservatives willing to rebel makes it clear that, even with the backing of the 11 DUP MPs, May could not win parliament’s backing.

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/blue-on-blue-19-tory-mps-demand-theresa-may-rule-out-no-deal-brexit_uk_5c17a3efe4b05d7e5d841f77

    There are a lot more than 19 Conservative MPs who will vote to try to block No Deal if and when push comes to shove.

    Anecdote time: I was chatting to a business contact of mine a couple days ago. He's not as far as I know a party member, but he knows his (Conservative) MP quite well because he's a prominent business figure in the constituency and has worked with the MP on various initiatives. Last week he got a phone call from the MP, soliciting his views on Brexit and the deal. He's not someone to mince his words, and so he made it quite clear that exiting with no deal would be an unmitigated disaster and that his business contacts were tearing their hair out at the lack of understanding amongst MPs of the problems.

    The MP's answer was revealing, something like (as verbatim as I can remember it from what I was told): "I'm glad you said that. You see, I'm coming under pressure from my constituency chairman and others in the local party who are all gung-ho for me to support the full no-deal Brexit, but they are all retired and they haven't a clue about the practicalities."
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,658
    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Here we go.

    Rebellion Threat As 19 Tory MPs Demand That Theresa May Rules Out 'No Deal' Brexit

    Cross-party letter makes clear there is no majority for crashing out of the bloc.

    Theresa May faces fresh mutiny from her backbenchers after 19 Tory MPs signed a cross-party demand for the prime minister to rule out a no-deal Brexit.

    The letter to Downing Street, co-signed by Labour heavyweight Jack Dromey and May ally Caroline Spelman, underlines how there is no majority in parliament for the UK crashing out of the EU without an agreement.

    While it is Labour and SNP policy to block a no-deal exit, the significant number of Conservatives willing to rebel makes it clear that, even with the backing of the 11 DUP MPs, May could not win parliament’s backing.



    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/blue-on-blue-19-tory-mps-demand-theresa-may-rule-out-no-deal-brexit_uk_5c17a3efe4b05d7e5d841f77

    I bet all those 19 voted in favour of May staying on the other week too.
    Yep.
    All the Tory MPs signing today's letter want to avoid No Deal.
    All the Tory MPs voting for May last week want to avoid No Deal.

    Hardly surprising there's an overlap.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,917
    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Here we go.

    Rebellion Threat As 19 Tory MPs Demand That Theresa May Rules Out 'No Deal' Brexit

    Cross-party letter makes clear there is no majority for crashing out of the bloc.

    Theresa May faces fresh mutiny from her backbenchers after 19 Tory MPs signed a cross-party demand for the prime minister to rule out a no-deal Brexit.

    The letter to Downing Street, co-signed by Labour heavyweight Jack Dromey and May ally Caroline Spelman, underlines how there is no majority in parliament for the UK crashing out of the EU without an agreement.

    While it is Labour and SNP policy to block a no-deal exit, the significant number of Conservatives willing to rebel makes it clear that, even with the backing of the 11 DUP MPs, May could not win parliament’s backing.



    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/blue-on-blue-19-tory-mps-demand-theresa-may-rule-out-no-deal-brexit_uk_5c17a3efe4b05d7e5d841f77

    I bet all those 19 voted in favour of May staying on the other week too.
    Yep.
    Ho ho - look at this for a prediction downthread:
    Pulpstar said:

    I think May can form a Gov't if she pivots to exiting without a deal. Jeremy Hunt is very obviously a candidate for Chancellor in that scenario.
    I wouldn't be surprised if hypothetical (And it is hypothetical due to the 12 month rule) non payroll confidence votes against/for May completely flip in the coming months.

  • Options
    Mr. Pointer, yet avoiding it would appear to require May to either acquiesce to a second referendum, or to step aside.
  • Options
    Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634

    Here we go.

    Rebellion Threat As 19 Tory MPs Demand That Theresa May Rules Out 'No Deal' Brexit

    Cross-party letter makes clear there is no majority for crashing out of the bloc.

    Theresa May faces fresh mutiny from her backbenchers after 19 Tory MPs signed a cross-party demand for the prime minister to rule out a no-deal Brexit.

    The letter to Downing Street, co-signed by Labour heavyweight Jack Dromey and May ally Caroline Spelman, underlines how there is no majority in parliament for the UK crashing out of the EU without an agreement.

    While it is Labour and SNP policy to block a no-deal exit, the significant number of Conservatives willing to rebel makes it clear that, even with the backing of the 11 DUP MPs, May could not win parliament’s backing.



    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/blue-on-blue-19-tory-mps-demand-theresa-may-rule-out-no-deal-brexit_uk_5c17a3efe4b05d7e5d841f77

    More people who don't understand how the process works...
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,917
    edited December 2018

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Here we go.

    Rebellion Threat As 19 Tory MPs Demand That Theresa May Rules Out 'No Deal' Brexit

    Cross-party letter makes clear there is no majority for crashing out of the bloc.

    Theresa May faces fresh mutiny from her backbenchers after 19 Tory MPs signed a cross-party demand for the prime minister to rule out a no-deal Brexit.

    The letter to Downing Street, co-signed by Labour heavyweight Jack Dromey and May ally Caroline Spelman, underlines how there is no majority in parliament for the UK crashing out of the EU without an agreement.

    While it is Labour and SNP policy to block a no-deal exit, the significant number of Conservatives willing to rebel makes it clear that, even with the backing of the 11 DUP MPs, May could not win parliament’s backing.



    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/blue-on-blue-19-tory-mps-demand-theresa-may-rule-out-no-deal-brexit_uk_5c17a3efe4b05d7e5d841f77

    I bet all those 19 voted in favour of May staying on the other week too.
    Yep.
    All the Tory MPs signing today's letter want to avoid No Deal.
    All the Tory MPs voting for May last week want to avoid No Deal.

    Hardly surprising there's an overlap.
    Alastair Meeks excellent piece showed why May staying on was utterly the wrong decision for Tory MPs to take.
    Did they not read it ? Have they learnt nothing ?
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,603
    Credit where it is due - the Remainers have managed to get "Crashing Out" as the standard way to describe a No Deal Brexit.

    To me it conjures up the image of a Trabant bursting through the Berlin wall to escape a pan-national tyranny.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,917
    edited December 2018
    Donny43 said:

    Here we go.

    Rebellion Threat As 19 Tory MPs Demand That Theresa May Rules Out 'No Deal' Brexit

    Cross-party letter makes clear there is no majority for crashing out of the bloc.

    Theresa May faces fresh mutiny from her backbenchers after 19 Tory MPs signed a cross-party demand for the prime minister to rule out a no-deal Brexit.

    The letter to Downing Street, co-signed by Labour heavyweight Jack Dromey and May ally Caroline Spelman, underlines how there is no majority in parliament for the UK crashing out of the EU without an agreement.

    While it is Labour and SNP policy to block a no-deal exit, the significant number of Conservatives willing to rebel makes it clear that, even with the backing of the 11 DUP MPs, May could not win parliament’s backing.

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/blue-on-blue-19-tory-mps-demand-theresa-may-rule-out-no-deal-brexit_uk_5c17a3efe4b05d7e5d841f77

    More people who don't understand how the process works...
    They do have the power to try and force an exit from Brexit - voting with Corbyn on a VONC motion.It's a nuclear option, but it is an option for the hard remainers amongst the Tories.
  • Options
    Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634
    Pulpstar said:

    Donny43 said:

    Here we go.

    Rebellion Threat As 19 Tory MPs Demand That Theresa May Rules Out 'No Deal' Brexit

    Cross-party letter makes clear there is no majority for crashing out of the bloc.

    Theresa May faces fresh mutiny from her backbenchers after 19 Tory MPs signed a cross-party demand for the prime minister to rule out a no-deal Brexit.

    The letter to Downing Street, co-signed by Labour heavyweight Jack Dromey and May ally Caroline Spelman, underlines how there is no majority in parliament for the UK crashing out of the EU without an agreement.

    While it is Labour and SNP policy to block a no-deal exit, the significant number of Conservatives willing to rebel makes it clear that, even with the backing of the 11 DUP MPs, May could not win parliament’s backing.

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/blue-on-blue-19-tory-mps-demand-theresa-may-rule-out-no-deal-brexit_uk_5c17a3efe4b05d7e5d841f77

    More people who don't understand how the process works...
    They do have the power to try and force an exit from Brexit - voting with Corbyn on a VONC motion.It's a nuclear option, but it is an option for the hard remainers amongst the Tories.
    Well, yes. But the point is that leaving with no deal can't be "ruled out", it can only be replaced by something else...
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,976
    edited December 2018
    Mr. Rentool, disagree. The media and political establishment are mostly pro-EU. Getting people who want to use EU-helpful terms and who are themselves pro-EU is about as difficulty as training a dog to eat cheese.

    Edited extra bit: difficult*, even.
  • Options
    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Brom said:

    We give our politicians hell and yet no Leaver on here says "I do not want a 2nd referendum because I do not think Leave would win it". Instead we get all sorts of obfuscations and such instead of basic honesty.

    Have the referendum. We know exactly what the options are now as opposed to nebulous sunny upland stuff. There are exactly three of them.

    -No Deal
    -May's Deal
    -Remain

    I am an arch-Remainer (apparently!!) but I will abide by the result however it turns out.

    I would suggest that this is a PR vote - select 1st, 2nd and 3rd Preference. Put all three on the ballot.

    Yes but no one trusts you. Plenty of MPs such as David Lammy said they would respect the result and voted to have the referendum and yet on June 24th 2016 they started work to overturn it. I think very few leave voters would respect the result of a hypothetical 2nd ref win or lose and I suspect most like myself would just boycott it to ensure it had zero worth.
    Surely I should be trusted? I never said I would accept the result and I never have. Search back through all my postings and you will never find me accepting the result. Quite the opposite.

    I have said that if there is a 2nd Ref on the concrete proposals we now have then I will repsect that result, but I have noting but contempt for the fairy-dust / unicorn / cherry-picking / cakeism / vacuous lies that posed as a campaign last time.
    I can understand the wish for a second referendum, and there are strong arguments for having one. But I cannot get beyond a feeling that it would be pointless: views have generally not changed, and even if remain did win (which is far from assured, given that views appear not to have shifted much) then it would be a marginal win and not solve anything. If there is a multi-choice referendum the chances are the uncertainty and message delivered by the voters would be even worse.

    Parliament should be the ones sorting this out IMO. Unfortunately that requires them to be adults ...
    I agree with you - I was just setting out my position re a 2nd Ref. Personally, I think we lack the time and the govt will have to revoke A50 and deal with the fallout. If they take us over the cliff, they will have the Mother of all Fall-Outs to deal with.

    My own view is that the background noise will get louder and louder as March approaches and business, industry, etc start to make public adjustments for No Deal. Today's announcement about food-banks and such will help fuel that particular fire.

    Lights. Action. Cue the panic....
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,917
    Donny43 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Donny43 said:

    Here we go.

    Rebellion Threat As 19 Tory MPs Demand That Theresa May Rules Out 'No Deal' Brexit

    Cross-party letter makes clear there is no majority for crashing out of the bloc.

    Theresa May faces fresh mutiny from her backbenchers after 19 Tory MPs signed a cross-party demand for the prime minister to rule out a no-deal Brexit.

    The letter to Downing Street, co-signed by Labour heavyweight Jack Dromey and May ally Caroline Spelman, underlines how there is no majority in parliament for the UK crashing out of the EU without an agreement.

    While it is Labour and SNP policy to block a no-deal exit, the significant number of Conservatives willing to rebel makes it clear that, even with the backing of the 11 DUP MPs, May could not win parliament’s backing.

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/blue-on-blue-19-tory-mps-demand-theresa-may-rule-out-no-deal-brexit_uk_5c17a3efe4b05d7e5d841f77

    More people who don't understand how the process works...
    They do have the power to try and force an exit from Brexit - voting with Corbyn on a VONC motion.It's a nuclear option, but it is an option for the hard remainers amongst the Tories.
    Well, yes. But the point is that leaving with no deal can't be "ruled out", it can only be replaced by something else...
    A General Election doesn't rule out leaving without a deal but it would reduce the probability from the present course I think.
  • Options
    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    Credit where it is due - the Remainers have managed to get "Crashing Out" as the standard way to describe a No Deal Brexit.

    To me it conjures up the image of a Trabant bursting through the Berlin wall to escape a pan-national tyranny.

    I still like the cliff edge.

    It's the ending of Thelma and Louise. Theresa May and Jacob Rees-Mogg holding hands as the nation's economy hurtles towards the grand canyon.

    image
  • Options

    Here we go.

    Rebellion Threat As 19 Tory MPs Demand That Theresa May Rules Out 'No Deal' Brexit

    Cross-party letter makes clear there is no majority for crashing out of the bloc.

    Theresa May faces fresh mutiny from her backbenchers after 19 Tory MPs signed a cross-party demand for the prime minister to rule out a no-deal Brexit.

    The letter to Downing Street, co-signed by Labour heavyweight Jack Dromey and May ally Caroline Spelman, underlines how there is no majority in parliament for the UK crashing out of the EU without an agreement.

    While it is Labour and SNP policy to block a no-deal exit, the significant number of Conservatives willing to rebel makes it clear that, even with the backing of the 11 DUP MPs, May could not win parliament’s backing.

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/blue-on-blue-19-tory-mps-demand-theresa-may-rule-out-no-deal-brexit_uk_5c17a3efe4b05d7e5d841f77

    There are a lot more than 19 Conservative MPs who will vote to try to block No Deal if and when push comes to shove.

    Anecdote time: I was chatting to a business contact of mine a couple days ago. He's not as far as I know a party member, but he knows his (Conservative) MP quite well because he's a prominent business figure in the constituency and has worked with the MP on various initiatives. Last week he got a phone call from the MP, soliciting his views on Brexit and the deal. He's not someone to mince his words, and so he made it quite clear that exiting with no deal would be an unmitigated disaster and that his business contacts were tearing their hair out at the lack of understanding amongst MPs of the problems.

    The MP's answer was revealing, something like (as verbatim as I can remember it from what I was told): "I'm glad you said that. You see, I'm coming under pressure from my constituency chairman and others in the local party who are all gung-ho for me to support the full no-deal Brexit, but they are all retired and they haven't a clue about the practicalities."
    Amazing how No Deal, which seemed so bizarrely improbable during the campaign that even Remainers barely raised it as a concern, has now become an orthodoxy in itself. I can only assume it's become some kind of virility symbol, with its advocates revelling in its sheer naughtiness.
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    Credit where it is due - the Remainers have managed to get "Crashing Out" as the standard way to describe a No Deal Brexit.

    To me it conjures up the image of a Trabant bursting through the Berlin wall to escape a pan-national tyranny.

    I think it's more like Steve McQueen in the Great Escape ;).
  • Options
    Mr. Dawning, not so much orthodoxy as the default situation.

    Most people probably didn't imagine May would be this stubborn.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,658
    edited December 2018

    Credit where it is due - the Remainers have managed to get "Crashing Out" as the standard way to describe a No Deal Brexit.

    To me it conjures up the image of a Trabant bursting through the Berlin wall to escape a pan-national tyranny.

    ...Although of course the Trabant's occupants would be killed in the process - Trabants not being known for their passenger safety cell or their ability to burst through concrete walls.

    No, I think "Crashing Out" conjours up ignomious exit from something you'd be better off staying in. As in: 'Liverpool crash out of the Champions League' (probably in February).
  • Options
    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    Mr. Dawning, not so much orthodoxy as the default situation.

    Most people probably didn't imagine May would be this stubborn.

    I can't believe May actually believes in No Deal. She does, however, believe in keeping her job at any cost. She would support No Deal, consequences be damned, if it kept her in power.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,603
    edited December 2018
    John_M said:

    Credit where it is due - the Remainers have managed to get "Crashing Out" as the standard way to describe a No Deal Brexit.

    To me it conjures up the image of a Trabant bursting through the Berlin wall to escape a pan-national tyranny.

    I think it's more like Steve McQueen in the Great Escape ;).
    But McQueen ends up back inside!

    Edit: That's what you were inferring - I'm being too slow!
  • Options

    Credit where it is due - the Remainers have managed to get "Crashing Out" as the standard way to describe a No Deal Brexit.

    To me it conjures up the image of a Trabant bursting through the Berlin wall to escape a pan-national tyranny.

    .. and to get into the EU.
  • Options
    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited December 2018
    Crash out: verb, informal to be eliminated from a competition in a way that brings disgrace or embarrassment

    Seems about right.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,975

    I can understand the wish for a second referendum, and there are strong arguments for having one. But I cannot get beyond a feeling that it would be pointless: views have generally not changed, and even if remain did win (which is far from assured, given that views appear not to have shifted much) then it would be a marginal win and not solve anything.

    You don't know that. The lesson from 2017 is that campaigns matter and can create a meaningful shift in opinion. There is no certainty at all about a second referendum leading to a marginal result. A decisive shift one way or another is absolutely possible, and would leave the country in a much better place politically.
    You are right, I don't *know* that.

    But I reckon it's a good guess. My reasons:
    1) The polling has not shifted much towards remain.
    2) The 'betrayal' of a second vote will be a strong recruiting sergeant for leave.
    3) Anecdotally, I'm not hearing or seeing many people changing their views; if anything they're becoming more entrenched.
    4) Remain has already lost once.
    5) Remainers are being lazy. With a few exceptions, they're saying how awful leaving is, and not giving a positive case for remaining in the EU. That's what's needed, and what they failed to do during ref1.

    I'd love there to be a second referendum and for one result - leave or remain - to decisively win. I just cannot see it happening, and another close result will not only not solve anything, it would be actively disastrous.

    So let's hope parliament can sort it out.
  • Options
    kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    Donny43 said:

    Here we go.

    Rebellion Threat As 19 Tory MPs Demand That Theresa May Rules Out 'No Deal' Brexit

    Cross-party letter makes clear there is no majority for crashing out of the bloc.

    Theresa May faces fresh mutiny from her backbenchers after 19 Tory MPs signed a cross-party demand for the prime minister to rule out a no-deal Brexit.

    The letter to Downing Street, co-signed by Labour heavyweight Jack Dromey and May ally Caroline Spelman, underlines how there is no majority in parliament for the UK crashing out of the EU without an agreement.

    While it is Labour and SNP policy to block a no-deal exit, the significant number of Conservatives willing to rebel makes it clear that, even with the backing of the 11 DUP MPs, May could not win parliament’s backing.



    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/blue-on-blue-19-tory-mps-demand-theresa-may-rule-out-no-deal-brexit_uk_5c17a3efe4b05d7e5d841f77

    More people who don't understand how the process works...
    No vote required by parliament it’s the default option since we triggered article 50
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,603

    Credit where it is due - the Remainers have managed to get "Crashing Out" as the standard way to describe a No Deal Brexit.

    To me it conjures up the image of a Trabant bursting through the Berlin wall to escape a pan-national tyranny.

    .. and to get into the EU.
    Lesser of two evils.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,917

    Mr. Dawning, not so much orthodoxy as the default situation.

    Most people probably didn't imagine May would be this stubborn.

    I can't believe May actually believes in No Deal. She does, however, believe in keeping her job at any cost. She would support No Deal, consequences be damned, if it kept her in power.
    Just imagine if the Tories had made her invincible as party leader for 12 months.
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    Donny43 said:

    Brom said:

    We give our politicians hell and yet no Leaver on here says "I do not want a 2nd referendum because I do not think Leave would win it". Instead we get all sorts of obfuscations and such instead of basic honesty.

    Have the referendum. We know exactly what the options are now as opposed to nebulous sunny upland stuff. There are exactly three of them.

    -No Deal
    -May's Deal
    -Remain

    I am an arch-Remainer (apparently!!) but I will abide by the result however it turns out.

    I would suggest that this is a PR vote - select 1st, 2nd and 3rd Preference. Put all three on the ballot.

    Yes but no one trusts you. Plenty of MPs such as David Lammy said they would respect the result and voted to have the referendum and yet on June 24th 2016 they started work to overturn it. I think very few leave voters would respect the result of a hypothetical 2nd ref win or lose and I suspect most like myself would just boycott it to ensure it had zero worth.
    Not sure about Lammy, but the vote has been respected.
    No it hasn't, because what was voted for hasn't happened.
    Oh that is incredibly naïve, or disingenuous, if not both.

    The 52% voted to leave for all manner of reasons but as we have seen in the succeeding period there is nothing like a consensus amongst them, nor even the semblance of a plan, or means of implementation. It is as if Leavers thought you could just flick a switch. Subsequent events have indicated how unrealistic that was. The Government has done its best to cobble together some kind of sensible plan out of the amorphous wishes of the 52%. It has done its best, and it has an agreement. That it cannot get the agreement accepted is due the very nature of Brexit and the incoherence of its supporters.

    You cannot say however that the Government has not done its level best to implement the vote. You can only say that the outcome of the vote was unimplementable.
  • Options

    Mr. Dawning, not so much orthodoxy as the default situation.

    Most people probably didn't imagine May would be this stubborn.

    But we're now seeing people actively craving No Deal. What do they think this will achieve? Surely no one's any longer bedazzled by Liam and his trade deals. It must just be about throwing Vs at the EU.
  • Options
    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited December 2018

    Mr. Dawning, not so much orthodoxy as the default situation.

    Most people probably didn't imagine May would be this stubborn.

    But we're now seeing people actively craving No Deal. What do they think this will achieve? Surely no one's any longer bedazzled by Liam and his trade deals. It must just be about throwing Vs at the EU.
    We're riding this No Deal train straight to hell. Hop on board. Choo fucking choo!
  • Options
    Mr. Dawning, for some, it's a measure of how atrocious May's deal is. She prioritised the Irish border over the customs integrity of the UK, for example.
  • Options
    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited December 2018
    Sources say Corbyn WILL call for a vote of no confidence in the PM (not the govt) if she does not announce a date for a vote on her Brexit deal asap - expect the move from him in response to PM's statement at 3.30

    (BBCLauraK)
  • Options
    dixiedean said:
    Still applying the finishing touches to N.Korea & gun control, but once they're done he's on it like a car bonnet.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,917

    Mr. Dawning, for some, it's a measure of how atrocious May's deal is. She prioritised the Irish border over the customs integrity of the UK, for example.

    May believes in a few things.

    i) Brexit most definitely means Brexit
    ii) She is the best person to steer the ship come what May.
    iii) The Good Friday agreement.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,830

    Sean_F said:

    Brom said:

    We give our politicians hell and yet no Leaver on here says "I do not want a 2nd referendum because I do not think Leave would win it". Instead we get all sorts of obfuscations and such instead of basic honesty.

    Have the referendum. We know exactly what the options are now as opposed to nebulous sunny upland stuff. There are exactly three of them.

    -No Deal
    -May's Deal
    -Remain

    I am an arch-Remainer (apparently!!) but I will abide by the result however it turns out.

    I would suggest that this is a PR vote - select 1st, 2nd and 3rd Preference. Put all three on the ballot.

    Yes but no one trusts you. Plenty of MPs such as David Lammy said they would respect the result and voted to have the referendum and yet on June 24th 2016 they started work to overturn it. I think very few leave voters would respect the result of a hypothetical 2nd ref win or lose and I suspect most like myself would just boycott it to ensure it had zero worth.
    s, in my opinion, very little more democratic legitimacy than a Zimbabwean General Election.
    Intelligent people respect votes that have gone against them, because it's preferable to face one's opponents on the hustings than on the battlefield.

    I don't like it when a Labour government gets elected, but I accept that they have the right to govern.
    I have always respected votes at a GE even when I have not liked the result. A GE is reversible and therefore has significant legitimacy. However, I would not respect the result if people were conned into supporting the BNP. The referendum was corrupt on a number of levels so one is not obliged to "respect" it, and such an expectation is somewhat silly. We may have to live with the consequences of Brexit, but respecting something that was achieved through slight of hand with no real opportunity of reversal deserves no respect, so on that I will have to respectfully disagree with your opinion.
    You can always campaign to rejoin the EU, after we have left it. No one is preventing you from doing so.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,917

    Sources say Corbyn WILL call for a vote of no confidence in the PM (not the govt) if she does not announce a date for a vote on her Brexit deal asap - expect the move from him in response to PM's statement at 3.30

    (BBCLauraK)

    Of course it a vote of no confidence in the Gov't. lol.
  • Options
    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Pulpstar said:

    Mr. Dawning, for some, it's a measure of how atrocious May's deal is. She prioritised the Irish border over the customs integrity of the UK, for example.

    May believes in a few things.

    i) Brexit most definitely means Brexit
    ii) She is the best person to steer the ship come what May.
    iii) The Good Friday agreement.
    NOTHING HAS CHANGED
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,830

    Here we go.

    Rebellion Threat As 19 Tory MPs Demand That Theresa May Rules Out 'No Deal' Brexit

    Cross-party letter makes clear there is no majority for crashing out of the bloc.

    Theresa May faces fresh mutiny from her backbenchers after 19 Tory MPs signed a cross-party demand for the prime minister to rule out a no-deal Brexit.

    The letter to Downing Street, co-signed by Labour heavyweight Jack Dromey and May ally Caroline Spelman, underlines how there is no majority in parliament for the UK crashing out of the EU without an agreement.

    While it is Labour and SNP policy to block a no-deal exit, the significant number of Conservatives willing to rebel makes it clear that, even with the backing of the 11 DUP MPs, May could not win parliament’s backing.



    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/blue-on-blue-19-tory-mps-demand-theresa-may-rule-out-no-deal-brexit_uk_5c17a3efe4b05d7e5d841f77

    All they have to do is to vote in favour of May's deal, and voila, No Deal becomes just a bad nightmare.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,105
    edited December 2018

    Donny43 said:

    Brom said:

    We give our politicians hell and yet no Leaver on here says "I do not want a 2nd referendum because I do not think Leave would win it". Instead we get all sorts of obfuscations and such instead of basic honesty.

    Have the referendum. We know exactly what the options are now as opposed to nebulous sunny upland stuff. There are exactly three of them.

    -No Deal
    -May's Deal
    -Remain

    I am an arch-Remainer (apparently!!) but I will abide by the result however it turns out.

    I would suggest that this is a PR vote - select 1st, 2nd and 3rd Preference. Put all three on the ballot.

    Yes but no one trusts you. Plenty of MPs such as David Lammy said they would respect the result and voted to have the referendum and yet on June 24th 2016 they started work to overturn it. I think very few leave voters would respect the result of a hypothetical 2nd ref win or lose and I suspect most like myself would just boycott it to ensure it had zero worth.
    Not sure about Lammy, but the vote has been respected.
    No it hasn't, because what was voted for hasn't happened.
    Oh that is incredibly naïve, or disingenuous, if not both.

    The 52% voted to leave for all manner of reasons but as we have seen in the succeeding period there is nothing like a consensus amongst them, nor even the semblance of a plan, or means of implementation. It is as if Leavers thought you could just flick a switch. Subsequent events have indicated how unrealistic that was. The Government has done its best to cobble together some kind of sensible plan out of the amorphous wishes of the 52%. It has done its best, and it has an agreement. That it cannot get the agreement accepted is due the very nature of Brexit and the incoherence of its supporters.

    You cannot say however that the Government has not done its level best to implement the vote. You can only say that the outcome of the vote was unimplementable.
    Clearly nonsense. There is a deal that implements Brexit. Some don't want to implement it because it is a crap way to achieve Brexit. But most - the Remainer majority in the House of Commons - don't want to implement it precisely because it DOES achieve Brexit.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,917
    Sean_F said:

    Here we go.

    Rebellion Threat As 19 Tory MPs Demand That Theresa May Rules Out 'No Deal' Brexit

    Cross-party letter makes clear there is no majority for crashing out of the bloc.

    Theresa May faces fresh mutiny from her backbenchers after 19 Tory MPs signed a cross-party demand for the prime minister to rule out a no-deal Brexit.

    The letter to Downing Street, co-signed by Labour heavyweight Jack Dromey and May ally Caroline Spelman, underlines how there is no majority in parliament for the UK crashing out of the EU without an agreement.

    While it is Labour and SNP policy to block a no-deal exit, the significant number of Conservatives willing to rebel makes it clear that, even with the backing of the 11 DUP MPs, May could not win parliament’s backing.



    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/blue-on-blue-19-tory-mps-demand-theresa-may-rule-out-no-deal-brexit_uk_5c17a3efe4b05d7e5d841f77

    All they have to do is to vote in favour of May's deal, and voila, No Deal becomes just a bad nightmare.
    May's holding the gun to their head and telling them she'll most definitely shoot right now. But 7 remainer Tories can pick up the political thermonuclear device and destroy themselves, the Tories and Brexit if they so choose.....
  • Options
    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited December 2018
    Sean_F said:

    Here we go.

    Rebellion Threat As 19 Tory MPs Demand That Theresa May Rules Out 'No Deal' Brexit

    Cross-party letter makes clear there is no majority for crashing out of the bloc.

    Theresa May faces fresh mutiny from her backbenchers after 19 Tory MPs signed a cross-party demand for the prime minister to rule out a no-deal Brexit.

    The letter to Downing Street, co-signed by Labour heavyweight Jack Dromey and May ally Caroline Spelman, underlines how there is no majority in parliament for the UK crashing out of the EU without an agreement.

    While it is Labour and SNP policy to block a no-deal exit, the significant number of Conservatives willing to rebel makes it clear that, even with the backing of the 11 DUP MPs, May could not win parliament’s backing.



    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/blue-on-blue-19-tory-mps-demand-theresa-may-rule-out-no-deal-brexit_uk_5c17a3efe4b05d7e5d841f77

    All they have to do is to vote in favour of May's deal, and voila, No Deal becomes just a bad nightmare.
    As much as I'd enjoy watching the Tories try to indulge in three months of economic blackmail, pointing a gun at the head of the economy shouting WE WILL SHOOT, WE MEAN IT DON'T MAKE US DO IT!!!

    After the ECJ ruling, since we can invoke A50 at any time, May has to *choose* to allow us over that cliff edge. She doesn't have the guts.

    Go on Tessie, do it. I double dare you.
  • Options
    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578
    edited December 2018





    I agree with you - I was just setting out my position re a 2nd Ref. Personally, I think we lack the time and the govt will have to revoke A50 and deal with the fallout. If they take us over the cliff, they will have the Mother of all Fall-Outs to deal with.

    My own view is that the background noise will get louder and louder as March approaches and business, industry, etc start to make public adjustments for No Deal. Today's announcement about food-banks and such will help fuel that particular fire.

    Lights. Action. Cue the panic....

    Yes I think this is the most likely scenario now that the ECJ has said that the UK can unilaterally revoke A50.

    Parliament will revoke, and the question of whether this will be temporary or permanent will be left open. There will then be either a referendum or general election, or quite possibly both. But the chances of the process being kicked off again after revokation are very small.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,263

    Sources say Corbyn WILL call for a vote of no confidence in the PM (not the govt) if she does not announce a date for a vote on her Brexit deal asap - expect the move from him in response to PM's statement at 3.30

    (BBCLauraK)

    I thought Jan 14 was already announced?
  • Options
    There's a chap whose name I've forgotten, cited in Philip Matyszak's Classical Compendium, which is well worth buying, incidentally. He's used as the stereotypical idiot, a bit like a Roman Homer Simpson.

    When his slaves are panicking as the ship they're all on looks like it might sink, he reassures them: "Don't worry, I've freed you all in my will!"

    There are shades of that in the current political atmosphere.

    Not to mention the ancient farmer digging up a field, looking for Antigonus [a disliked leader during his reign but rather more popular afterwards].
  • Options
    Mr. B2, isn't it 21 January?
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,658
    SeanT said:

    That was true initially of the first movers of the idea, but I don't think it's true now. What has changed is the Leavers (or at least a prominent chunk of them, including some of the highest-profile figures in the Leave campaign) trashing the deal which would implement exactly what they campaigned for, to the extent of making it impossible to implement any vaguely-sane version of Brexit without a second referendum. That being the case, and since they are already shouting 'Betrayal!' at a government which is trying to do what they said they wanted, Brexit is no longer deliverable by parliament. So many people like me who fully respected the original referendum result, even if we thought it a mistake, have no choice but to look for a way out of the mess. A Revoke/Deal referendum might be such a way, still leaving the option for the public to confirm the original vote, but avoiding the brain-dead catastrophe of crashing out in utter chaos, which was most certainly not what the Leave campaign said it wanted in 2016.

    That's not to say that those who argue that a second referendum would be highly divisive and would give rise to justified resentment are wrong; they are not wrong, but crashing out with no deal would be worse, and no-one has a better idea which can get through parliament, unless Labour decides to play ball (which looks highly unlikely).
    Indeed. As we approach the Endtimes, sorry, Day of Brexit, options have narrowed, and we are presented with a simple series of choices, all bad, some (to my mind) appalling. We shouldn't be here (thanks Tony Blair for giving us Article 50), but here is where we are.

    We just have to get a grip, gird our loins, and choose from:

    Revoke
    No Deal
    TMay's Deal
    A new referendum

    Clearly this choice has to be made by parliament in a Free Vote. The House of Commons cannot shirk responsibility forever, and knock down every option without offering a preferred alternative. They must man up. And if Sir Gaylord Ponceyboots, Tory MP for Leave-on-the-Wold, will kill his career by choosing a referendum, or Revoke, or No Deal, or whatever, then he will just have to swallow his medicine, and do what is best for the country, not what is best for him or his party.

    My guess is they will choose either a new referendum, which means they will then have to choose the question or questions. Or they will plump, reluctantly, for TMay's Deal.

    That's it. Them's the choices. It's horrible and depressing but it's not quantum mechanics, not any more. It is political painful, but logically simple. The Commons must decide.
    It's going to be May's Deal - it's the least painful option for most MPs
  • Options
    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Tories want to try to blackmail the people into supporting May's terrible deal. Let them try.

    It's 28th March, Theresa. Parliament isn't giving in to your pathetic attempts at blackmail. Now's the moment of choice. We go over the cliff edge but only if you let us.

    Do you have the guts, Mrs May?

  • Options
    VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,435
    Pulpstar said:

    Sources say Corbyn WILL call for a vote of no confidence in the PM (not the govt) if she does not announce a date for a vote on her Brexit deal asap - expect the move from him in response to PM's statement at 3.30

    (BBCLauraK)

    Of course it a vote of no confidence in the Gov't. lol.
    Not for the purposes of the FTPA.
  • Options
    Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634

    Donny43 said:

    Brom said:

    We give our politicians hell and yet no Leaver on here says "I do not want a 2nd referendum because I do not think Leave would win it". Instead we get all sorts of obfuscations and such instead of basic honesty.

    Have the referendum. We know exactly what the options are now as opposed to nebulous sunny upland stuff. There are exactly three of them.

    -No Deal
    -May's Deal
    -Remain

    I am an arch-Remainer (apparently!!) but I will abide by the result however it turns out.

    I would suggest that this is a PR vote - select 1st, 2nd and 3rd Preference. Put all three on the ballot.

    Yes but no one trusts you. Plenty of MPs such as David Lammy said they would respect the result and voted to have the referendum and yet on June 24th 2016 they started work to overturn it. I think very few leave voters would respect the result of a hypothetical 2nd ref win or lose and I suspect most like myself would just boycott it to ensure it had zero worth.
    Not sure about Lammy, but the vote has been respected.
    No it hasn't, because what was voted for hasn't happened.
    Oh that is incredibly naïve, or disingenuous, if not both.

    The 52% voted to leave for all manner of reasons but as we have seen in the succeeding period there is nothing like a consensus amongst them, nor even the semblance of a plan, or means of implementation. It is as if Leavers thought you could just flick a switch. Subsequent events have indicated how unrealistic that was. The Government has done its best to cobble together some kind of sensible plan out of the amorphous wishes of the 52%. It has done its best, and it has an agreement. That it cannot get the agreement accepted is due the very nature of Brexit and the incoherence of its supporters.

    You cannot say however that the Government has not done its level best to implement the vote. You can only say that the outcome of the vote was unimplementable.
    No, that it cannot get the agreement accepted is because the opposition are playing silly games.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,658

    Mr. B2, isn't it 21 January?

    That's just the last date it can be surely?
  • Options
    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    SeanT said:


    That's it. Them's the choices. It's horrible and depressing but it's not quantum mechanics, not any more. It is political painful, but logically simple. The Commons must decide.

    It's going to be May's Deal - it's the least painful option for most MPs
    If you think Labour are gonna give in to political blackmail, save the Tories' hides, and reap a whirlwind as remainers abandon them *en masse*, you're really reading the runes wrong.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,263

    Here we go.

    Rebellion Threat As 19 Tory MPs Demand That Theresa May Rules Out 'No Deal' Brexit

    Cross-party letter makes clear there is no majority for crashing out of the bloc.

    Theresa May faces fresh mutiny from her backbenchers after 19 Tory MPs signed a cross-party demand for the prime minister to rule out a no-deal Brexit.

    The letter to Downing Street, co-signed by Labour heavyweight Jack Dromey and May ally Caroline Spelman, underlines how there is no majority in parliament for the UK crashing out of the EU without an agreement.

    While it is Labour and SNP policy to block a no-deal exit, the significant number of Conservatives willing to rebel makes it clear that, even with the backing of the 11 DUP MPs, May could not win parliament’s backing.

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/blue-on-blue-19-tory-mps-demand-theresa-may-rule-out-no-deal-brexit_uk_5c17a3efe4b05d7e5d841f77

    There are a lot more than 19 Conservative MPs who will vote to try to block No Deal if and when push comes to shove.

    Anecdote time: I was chatting to a business contact of mine a couple days ago. He's not as far as I know a party member, but he knows his (Conservative) MP quite well because he's a prominent business figure in the constituency and has worked with the MP on various initiatives. Last week he got a phone call from the MP, soliciting his views on Brexit and the deal. He's not someone to mince his words, and so he made it quite clear that exiting with no deal would be an unmitigated disaster and that his business contacts were tearing their hair out at the lack of understanding amongst MPs of the problems.

    The MP's answer was revealing, something like (as verbatim as I can remember it from what I was told): "I'm glad you said that. You see, I'm coming under pressure from my constituency chairman and others in the local party who are all gung-ho for me to support the full no-deal Brexit, but they are all retired and they haven't a clue about the practicalities."
    Amazing how No Deal, which seemed so bizarrely improbable during the campaign that even Remainers barely raised it as a concern, has now become an orthodoxy in itself. I can only assume it's become some kind of virility symbol, with its advocates revelling in its sheer naughtiness.
    Richard has hit the nail on the head - the pressure within the Tory Party is coming predominantly from retired people who don't understand, don't care as they think their fixed incomes are safe, and are viewing the situation through a frame of reference they shaped during or shortly after the last war.
  • Options
    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Also, if you think the ERG and DUP are going to support May's deal if she threatens them with no deal... I dunno what to tell ya.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,830

    Sean_F said:

    Here we go.

    Rebellion Threat As 19 Tory MPs Demand That Theresa May Rules Out 'No Deal' Brexit

    Cross-party letter makes clear there is no majority for crashing out of the bloc.

    Theresa May faces fresh mutiny from her backbenchers after 19 Tory MPs signed a cross-party demand for the prime minister to rule out a no-deal Brexit.

    The letter to Downing Street, co-signed by Labour heavyweight Jack Dromey and May ally Caroline Spelman, underlines how there is no majority in parliament for the UK crashing out of the EU without an agreement.

    While it is Labour and SNP policy to block a no-deal exit, the significant number of Conservatives willing to rebel makes it clear that, even with the backing of the 11 DUP MPs, May could not win parliament’s backing.



    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/blue-on-blue-19-tory-mps-demand-theresa-may-rule-out-no-deal-brexit_uk_5c17a3efe4b05d7e5d841f77

    All they have to do is to vote in favour of May's deal, and voila, No Deal becomes just a bad nightmare.
    As much as I'd enjoy watching the Tories try to indulge in three months of economic blackmail, pointing a gun at the head of the economy shouting WE WILL SHOOT, WE MEAN IT DON'T MAKE US DO IT!!!

    After the ECJ ruling, since we can invoke A50 at any time, May has to *choose* to allow us over that cliff edge. She doesn't have the guts.

    Go on Tessie, do it. I double dare you.
    The Commons has to choose to revoke A50. Do *they* have the guts?
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,917
    IanB2 said:

    Here we go.

    Rebellion Threat As 19 Tory MPs Demand That Theresa May Rules Out 'No Deal' Brexit

    Cross-party letter makes clear there is no majority for crashing out of the bloc.

    Theresa May faces fresh mutiny from her backbenchers after 19 Tory MPs signed a cross-party demand for the prime minister to rule out a no-deal Brexit.

    The letter to Downing Street, co-signed by Labour heavyweight Jack Dromey and May ally Caroline Spelman, underlines how there is no majority in parliament for the UK crashing out of the EU without an agreement.

    While it is Labour and SNP policy to block a no-deal exit, the significant number of Conservatives willing to rebel makes it clear that, even with the backing of the 11 DUP MPs, May could not win parliament’s backing.

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/blue-on-blue-19-tory-mps-demand-theresa-may-rule-out-no-deal-brexit_uk_5c17a3efe4b05d7e5d841f77

    There are a lot more than 19 Conservative MPs who will vote to try to block No Deal if and when push comes to shove.

    Anecdote time: I was chatting to a business contact of mine a couple days ago. He's not as far as I know a party member, but he knows his (Conservative) MP quite well because he's a prominent business figure in the constituency and has worked with the MP on various initiatives. Last week he got a phone call from the MP, soliciting his views on Brexit and the deal. He's not someone to mince his words, and so he made it quite clear that exiting with no deal would be an unmitigated disaster and that his business contacts were tearing their hair out at the lack of understanding amongst MPs of the problems.

    The MP's answer was revealing, something like (as verbatim as I can remember it from what I was told): "I'm glad you said that. You see, I'm coming under pressure from my constituency chairman and others in the local party who are all gung-ho for me to support the full no-deal Brexit, but they are all retired and they haven't a clue about the practicalities."
    Amazing how No Deal, which seemed so bizarrely improbable during the campaign that even Remainers barely raised it as a concern, has now become an orthodoxy in itself. I can only assume it's become some kind of virility symbol, with its advocates revelling in its sheer naughtiness.
    Richard has hit the nail on the head - the pressure within the Tory Party is coming predominantly from retired people who don't understand, don't care as they think their fixed incomes are safe, and are viewing the situation through a frame of reference they shaped during or shortly after the last war.
    Yes, that reasonably accurately describes the Tory membership.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,658

    SeanT said:


    That's it. Them's the choices. It's horrible and depressing but it's not quantum mechanics, not any more. It is political painful, but logically simple. The Commons must decide.

    It's going to be May's Deal - it's the least painful option for most MPs
    If you think Labour are gonna give in to political blackmail, save the Tories' hides, and reap a whirlwind as remainers abandon them *en masse*, you're really reading the runes wrong.
    Not Labour; a few Labour MPs and most of the Tory rebels.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758


    What negotiations? The deal is done. Surely everyone now realises that? There is no more negotiation to be had. THE DEAL IS DONE.

    The deal is not done because it will be rejected.
    My guess is the EU will, quite rightly, point out that's our problem not theirs.
    Not really: it makes it the EU’s problem

    If the deal is not acceptable to the U.K. there are 3 possible options:

    (1) the EU amends it to make it acceptable
    (2) after a period of reflection the U.K. accepts the current proposal
    (3) there is no deal that is acceptable to both sides

    Of course the public comments from the EU are trying to take (1) off the table. As someone who spends a lot of time negotiating I simply don’t believe them. But I know why they are saying what they are saying
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    Sean_F said:

    Here we go.

    Rebellion Threat As 19 Tory MPs Demand That Theresa May Rules Out 'No Deal' Brexit

    Cross-party letter makes clear there is no majority for crashing out of the bloc.

    Theresa May faces fresh mutiny from her backbenchers after 19 Tory MPs signed a cross-party demand for the prime minister to rule out a no-deal Brexit.

    The letter to Downing Street, co-signed by Labour heavyweight Jack Dromey and May ally Caroline Spelman, underlines how there is no majority in parliament for the UK crashing out of the EU without an agreement.

    While it is Labour and SNP policy to block a no-deal exit, the significant number of Conservatives willing to rebel makes it clear that, even with the backing of the 11 DUP MPs, May could not win parliament’s backing.



    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/blue-on-blue-19-tory-mps-demand-theresa-may-rule-out-no-deal-brexit_uk_5c17a3efe4b05d7e5d841f77

    All they have to do is to vote in favour of May's deal, and voila, No Deal becomes just a bad nightmare.
    Even if they did it wouldn’t make a difference there’s enough Leavers opposed to the Deal.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,917
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Here we go.

    Rebellion Threat As 19 Tory MPs Demand That Theresa May Rules Out 'No Deal' Brexit

    Cross-party letter makes clear there is no majority for crashing out of the bloc.

    Theresa May faces fresh mutiny from her backbenchers after 19 Tory MPs signed a cross-party demand for the prime minister to rule out a no-deal Brexit.

    The letter to Downing Street, co-signed by Labour heavyweight Jack Dromey and May ally Caroline Spelman, underlines how there is no majority in parliament for the UK crashing out of the EU without an agreement.

    While it is Labour and SNP policy to block a no-deal exit, the significant number of Conservatives willing to rebel makes it clear that, even with the backing of the 11 DUP MPs, May could not win parliament’s backing.



    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/blue-on-blue-19-tory-mps-demand-theresa-may-rule-out-no-deal-brexit_uk_5c17a3efe4b05d7e5d841f77

    All they have to do is to vote in favour of May's deal, and voila, No Deal becomes just a bad nightmare.
    As much as I'd enjoy watching the Tories try to indulge in three months of economic blackmail, pointing a gun at the head of the economy shouting WE WILL SHOOT, WE MEAN IT DON'T MAKE US DO IT!!!

    After the ECJ ruling, since we can invoke A50 at any time, May has to *choose* to allow us over that cliff edge. She doesn't have the guts.

    Go on Tessie, do it. I double dare you.
    The Commons has to choose to revoke A50. Do *they* have the guts?
    Oh the Commons revokes it in a heartbeat. May is probably hard Brexit's best hope.
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    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Sean_F said:


    Go on Tessie, do it. I double dare you.

    The Commons has to choose to revoke A50. Do *they* have the guts?
    Not yet. We need to let people simmer a bit longer first.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,263

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Has May resigned yet?

    The irony of May resigning while the PB Thread Header entitled "The magnificent resilience of TMay ploughing on relentlessly against all the odds" would be truly delicious!
    She will resign when parliament opts for Ref2, reflecting the red line she is painting in a circle around herself as we speak.
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