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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Given TMay’s said she’ll be out before the next election it’s

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited December 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Given TMay’s said she’ll be out before the next election it’s hard to see why Corbyn remains favourite for next PM

As long as Corbyn remains Labour leader then clearly he has a good chance of becoming, at some stage, prime minister. The above active betting market is not about that but who is going to step into Theresa May shoes when she stands aside.

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Comments

  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 4,893
    edited December 2018
    Perhaps it's because what she says and what she does are often very different.

    And Primus, it would appear, Inter Pares, of course.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 40,584

    Well, thing is an early GE looks very probable and the Tories don't have time to switch to a new leader she may well still lead them unhappily into a GE whatever she says, and Corbyn follow her.

    JRM just complimented TM on her success last week and pledged his support to her !!!!

    I assume as leader and not on the deal though? Perhaps someone realised their temper tantrum and inventing constitutional norms to justify that tantrum was not a good look last week.
  • Government of National Unity needs a PM.

    May I humbly suggest Sir Keir Starmer, Hillary Benn, Dominic Grieve, or Ken Clarke (pbuh).
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 40,584
    Scott_P said:
    Is he trying to claim that the fact the MV will happen at some point has been forced by Labour?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 50,002
    A General Election in 2019 is 2.53 on Betfair.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 40,584

    I know many may expect me to say this but, yet again, TM has again sailed through another stormy sea

    I appreciate her sailing skills in being able to keep us afloat, and for seeing off that mutiny, but the ship is now taking on water, we've lost the navigational charts, are running low on food, and we never actually knew where we were headed in the first place.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 4,679
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Is he trying to claim that the fact the MV will happen at some point has been forced by Labour?
    He is trying to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. Even though that defeat is now already going through the digestive system.

    Labour screwed up this afternoon. And this is a feeble attempt to pretend otherwise. No-one will buy it.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 22,253
    edited December 2018
    As I said on the last thread, TM has easily sailed through another stormy sea
  • What May says and what May does are not necessarily the same thing.

    FPT: yeah, Mr. Jessop, you did a very good job, though. I had a quick think for improving the flow (when I beta read for other people I try to come up with suggestions as "this could be better", whilst accurate, isn't hugely helpful) but nothing came to mind.

    You should repost it.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 4,679

    Government of National Unity needs a PM.

    May I humbly suggest Sir Keir Starmer, Hillary Benn, Dominic Grieve, or Ken Clarke (pbuh).

    Given that over 80% of votes cast in last year's GE were for parties who promised to implement the referendum result, I am not sure how a Remain advocate as PM really counts as being representative of National Unity.
  • Oh dear the Express pro Brexit position is finally understood.

  • Government of National Unity needs a PM.

    May I humbly suggest Sir Keir Starmer, Hillary Benn, Dominic Grieve, or Ken Clarke (pbuh).

    Happy with any of those, though I am not sure the headbangers of the ERG or Momentum are likely to agree with you or me!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 14,096

    As I said on the last thread, TM has easily sailed through another stormy sea

    To be fair, Mr G, I feel that's more due to the incompetence of the LOTO and his acolytes than to her ability.
  • Jeremy Corbyn remains favourite because Theresa May lacks an obvious successor. In the absence of an obvious successor, the hope of Labour punters springs eternal.

    For what it's worth I think it's more likely the next general election will be fought between two entirely new leaders than between both Jeremy Corbyn and Theresa May.
  • Government of National Unity needs a PM.

    May I humbly suggest Sir Keir Starmer, Hillary Benn, Dominic Grieve, or Ken Clarke (pbuh).

    Given that over 80% of votes cast in last year's GE were for parties who promised to implement the referendum result, I am not sure how a Remain advocate as PM really counts as being representative of National Unity.
    Over 50% of the votes in last year's general election were for parties committed to avoiding No Deal.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 7,104
    kle4 said:

    I know many may expect me to say this but, yet again, TM has again sailed through another stormy sea

    I appreciate her sailing skills in being able to keep us afloat, and for seeing off that mutiny, but the ship is now taking on water, we've lost the navigational charts, are running low on food, and we never actually knew where we were headed in the first place.
    Up the creek without a paddle, surely?
  • A while ago I was toying with a Ken Clarke next PM bet, on the basis of a cross-party movement. Decided against it.
  • As I said on the last thread, TM has easily sailed through another stormy sea

    To be fair, Mr G, I feel that's more due to the incompetence of the LOTO and his acolytes than to her ability.
    Corbyn is a disaster for labour and they are finding out the hard way
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,274

    Government of National Unity needs a PM.

    May I humbly suggest Sir Keir Starmer, Hillary Benn, Dominic Grieve, or Ken Clarke (pbuh).

    Given that over 80% of votes cast in last year's GE were for parties who promised to implement the referendum result, I am not sure how a Remain advocate as PM really counts as being representative of National Unity.
    Over 50% of the votes in last year's general election were for parties committed to avoiding No Deal.
    Am I the only person rolling my eyes at all this adding together votes from GE2017 as if it matters? May called the election asking the country to back her or risk Jeremy Corbyn negotiating Brexit. We didn't back her. Or him. Now apparently if you voted for either of them, you were backing her.

    That's some revision of history - surprised she's getting away with it.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,089

    As I said on the last thread, TM has easily sailed through another stormy sea

    It might be a lake with the Niagara Falls looming in the distance.
  • tpfkar said:

    Government of National Unity needs a PM.

    May I humbly suggest Sir Keir Starmer, Hillary Benn, Dominic Grieve, or Ken Clarke (pbuh).

    Given that over 80% of votes cast in last year's GE were for parties who promised to implement the referendum result, I am not sure how a Remain advocate as PM really counts as being representative of National Unity.
    Over 50% of the votes in last year's general election were for parties committed to avoiding No Deal.
    Am I the only person rolling my eyes at all this adding together votes from GE2017 as if it matters? May called the election asking the country to back her or risk Jeremy Corbyn negotiating Brexit. We didn't back her. Or him. Now apparently if you voted for either of them, you were backing her.

    That's some revision of history - surprised she's getting away with it.
    No you're not.

    My favourite was a Leaver arguing the 80% figure then a few days later arguing that most voters don't read/know manifesto commitments.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 40,584
    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    I know many may expect me to say this but, yet again, TM has again sailed through another stormy sea

    I appreciate her sailing skills in being able to keep us afloat, and for seeing off that mutiny, but the ship is now taking on water, we've lost the navigational charts, are running low on food, and we never actually knew where we were headed in the first place.
    Up the creek without a paddle, surely?
    I was thinking to properly convey the problem a sense of being in the deep ocean, becalmed for weeks, was more apt.
  • As I said on the last thread, TM has easily sailed through another stormy sea

    It might be a lake with the Niagara Falls looming in the distance.
    She has the lifeboat - her deal
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 40,584
    She's making real progress on swaying the public I see.

    It's why she is trying to avoid remain as an option of course. If people actually believed it was no deal vs deal they might back it.
  • I blame the Russian dude....
  • So we've gone from 52:48 to 47:53. Hmmm.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 4,679
    It is scary that she is a solicitor. What does that say about the state of legal training at the moment?

    She seems to be claiming incompetence as her defence.
  • It is scary that she is a solicitor. What does that say about the state of legal training at the moment?

    She seems to be claiming incompetence as her defence.
    I'm actually going to disagree.

    It's not unusual that the defence puts points to the defendant so they can be denied.

    It is important that the defendant's case is fully articulated, because a jury cannot invent an alternative defence for the defendant.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 7,104
    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    I know many may expect me to say this but, yet again, TM has again sailed through another stormy sea

    I appreciate her sailing skills in being able to keep us afloat, and for seeing off that mutiny, but the ship is now taking on water, we've lost the navigational charts, are running low on food, and we never actually knew where we were headed in the first place.
    Up the creek without a paddle, surely?
    I was thinking to properly convey the problem a sense of being in the deep ocean, becalmed for weeks, was more apt.
    Yes, I think the Rime of the Ancient Mariner, with the albatross of Brexit around her neck is more apt.

    "And having once turned round walks on,
    And turns no more his head;
    Because he knows, a frightful fiend
    Doth close behind him tread."
  • It is scary that she is a solicitor. What does that say about the state of legal training at the moment?

    She seems to be claiming incompetence as her defence.
    The university of Hertfordshire not exactly known for its academic excellence.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 40,584
    edited December 2018

    It is scary that she is a solicitor. What does that say about the state of legal training at the moment?

    She seems to be claiming incompetence as her defence.
    From the BBC write up of the last trial that is precisely her defence, with a side of seeking sympathy for the pressure of the job and an illness. Being very stupid is not (usually) a crime after all.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 25,605

    Government of National Unity needs a PM.

    May I humbly suggest Sir Keir Starmer, Hillary Benn, Dominic Grieve, or Ken Clarke (pbuh).

    Andrew Bridgen.
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634
    IanB2 said:

    Donny43 said:

    She's shamelessly running down the clock, isn't she.

    She persistently refers to the referendum result as if she wants to blame the stupid voters for this mess, rather than the Government.

    It's Labour and the other opposition parties who are running down the clock, along with their friends in the ERG. The PM's trying to get MPs to agree to stop running down the clock, admittedly without much sign of success so far at least.
    Labour has nothing to be proud of in this connection, Richard, but it is not the Government.

    Ian Blackwood was absolutely spot on when he said the vote could be taken before Christmas. She's running down the clock, shamelessly.
    No, I think she believes she'll get something out of the EU. I'd accuse her of wishful thinking rather than shamelessness - I suspect she will get something, but not enough to make any difference.
    I got the feeling from a couple of things I've read that enough of the Tory objectors could be brought on board with a guarantee that the "backstop" would not be permanent. This ought to be trivial for the EU to guarantee since under TFEU the withdrawal agreement cannot be the permanent end-state.
    The nonsense of the situation is that (despite what some paranoid leavers appear to believe) the EU doesn't want it to be permanent, either; its way too favourable a position.
    And yet they very deliberately decided not to say so in the EUCO conclusions last week.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 25,605

    It is scary that she is a solicitor. What does that say about the state of legal training at the moment?

    She seems to be claiming incompetence as her defence.
    That's the only defence she can run.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 14,096

    I blame the Russian dude....
    The DEFENCE said.......
    I'm not a lawyer, but I thought the deence barrister was on her side!
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 2,127
    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    I know many may expect me to say this but, yet again, TM has again sailed through another stormy sea

    I appreciate her sailing skills in being able to keep us afloat, and for seeing off that mutiny, but the ship is now taking on water, we've lost the navigational charts, are running low on food, and we never actually knew where we were headed in the first place.
    Up the creek without a paddle, surely?
    I was thinking to properly convey the problem a sense of being in the deep ocean, becalmed for weeks, was more apt.
    So nothing has changed?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 7,104
    Sean_F said:

    Government of National Unity needs a PM.

    May I humbly suggest Sir Keir Starmer, Hillary Benn, Dominic Grieve, or Ken Clarke (pbuh).

    Andrew Bridgen.
    We should all be able to unite in calling him a pillock!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 25,605

    So we've gone from 52:48 to 47:53. Hmmm.
    Pretty much in line with the average.

    Incidentally, last week's BMG poll showing Remain leading 57/43 was misreported. That was a poll of all adults, including those ineligible to vote.

    Their poll of all adults eligible to vote was 50.5/49.5.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 40,584

    I blame the Russian dude....
    The DEFENCE said.......
    I'm not a lawyer, but I thought the deence barrister was on her side!
    Well, TV has taught me lawyers will often put forward a simplified version of the other side's case to be shut down during their time.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    So we've gone from 52:48 to 47:53. Hmmm.
    THE CURSED NUMBERS.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 73,102
    edited December 2018
    Sean_F said:

    Government of National Unity needs a PM.

    May I humbly suggest Sir Keir Starmer, Hillary Benn, Dominic Grieve, or Ken Clarke (pbuh).

    Andrew Bridgen.
    He'd certainly unite the country.

    Against him.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 23,723
    Surely it was the prosecution barrister up today?
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Foxy said:

    Sean_F said:

    Government of National Unity needs a PM.

    May I humbly suggest Sir Keir Starmer, Hillary Benn, Dominic Grieve, or Ken Clarke (pbuh).

    Andrew Bridgen.
    We should all be able to unite in calling him a pillock!
    The honourable member for North West Bullshitshire.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 40,584

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    I know many may expect me to say this but, yet again, TM has again sailed through another stormy sea

    I appreciate her sailing skills in being able to keep us afloat, and for seeing off that mutiny, but the ship is now taking on water, we've lost the navigational charts, are running low on food, and we never actually knew where we were headed in the first place.
    Up the creek without a paddle, surely?
    I was thinking to properly convey the problem a sense of being in the deep ocean, becalmed for weeks, was more apt.
    So nothing has changed?
    It did a bit, but now we are at to be still at sea for weeks.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 50,706
    Not impossible May could stay as PM even while s new Tory leader fights a 2022 general election as Aznar did with Rajoy in Spain in 2004
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,562
    Does it not depend on when and how the government collapses? There may not be time to find a replacement for May.
  • Surely it was the prosecution barrister up today?
    The prosecution rested this morning.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 50,706
    The Deal is Remainers and No Dealers second choice though, hence the Deal tends to beat No Deal in polls head to head and tie Remain
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 6,322
    We are now barely 3.25 years from this Parliament having to be dissolved - ie end of March 2022.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,562
    kle4 said:

    I know many may expect me to say this but, yet again, TM has again sailed through another stormy sea

    I appreciate her sailing skills in being able to keep us afloat, and for seeing off that mutiny, but the ship is now taking on water, we've lost the navigational charts, are running low on food, and we never actually knew where we were headed in the first place.
    Yeah, but apart from that....what seamanship.
  • Foxy said:

    Sean_F said:

    Government of National Unity needs a PM.

    May I humbly suggest Sir Keir Starmer, Hillary Benn, Dominic Grieve, or Ken Clarke (pbuh).

    Andrew Bridgen.
    We should all be able to unite in calling him a pillock!
    The honourable member for North West Bullshitshire.
    I still stand by this

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 23,723

    It is scary that she is a solicitor. What does that say about the state of legal training at the moment?

    She seems to be claiming incompetence as her defence.
    The university of Hertfordshire not exactly known for its academic excellence.
    Started life as Hatfield Technical College.
  • A week is a long time in politics

    From here to the 14th January is a long time and during this time if polls show a continuing shift to a referendum and staying, conservative mps may face the real prospect of losing it all if they do not vote for TM deal
  • So we've gone from 52:48 to 47:53. Hmmm.
    THE CURSED NUMBERS.
    Luke 22:47-53 While he was still speaking a crowd came up, and the man who was called Judas, one of the Twelve, was leading them. He approached Jesus to kiss him, but Jesus asked him, "Judas, are you betraying the Son of Man with a kiss?"

    For no reason other than I thought I would see what 47-53 brought up when I stuck it in google. :)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 40,584

    A week is a long time in politics

    From here to the 14th January is a long time and during this time if polls show a continuing shift to a referendum and staying, conservative mps may face the real prospect of losing it all if they do not vote for TM deal

    Maybe, though I doubt that will sway them, too many are clear just how bad the deal it. And it doesn't solve the DUP or Labour leaver problem, since one or both are needed.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 6,322

    A week is a long time in politics

    From here to the 14th January is a long time and during this time if polls show a continuing shift to a referendum and staying, conservative mps may face the real prospect of losing it all if they do not vote for TM deal

    Unlikely to be many polls over the Xmas and New Year holiday period.
  • Government of National Unity needs a PM.

    May I humbly suggest Sir Keir Starmer, Hillary Benn, Dominic Grieve, or Ken Clarke (pbuh).

    Given that over 80% of votes cast in last year's GE were for parties who promised to implement the referendum result, I am not sure how a Remain advocate as PM really counts as being representative of National Unity.
    They should choose Frank Field.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 3,915

    Jeremy Corbyn remains favourite because Theresa May lacks an obvious successor. In the absence of an obvious successor, the hope of Labour punters springs eternal.

    For what it's worth I think it's more likely the next general election will be fought between two entirely new leaders than between both Jeremy Corbyn and Theresa May.

    Emily Thornberry and Boris Johnson
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 40,584
    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    I know many may expect me to say this but, yet again, TM has again sailed through another stormy sea

    I appreciate her sailing skills in being able to keep us afloat, and for seeing off that mutiny, but the ship is now taking on water, we've lost the navigational charts, are running low on food, and we never actually knew where we were headed in the first place.
    Yeah, but apart from that....what seamanship.
    Indeed. Though the next best suggestion is to pray to Poseiden to get us back to port, so what can you do eh?
  • That's 101%. I know it will be due to rounding errors but it does make them look rather daft.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 40,584
    DavidL said:

    Does it not depend on when and how the government collapses? There may not be time to find a replacement for May.

    There won't be. Deal passes and the DUP cause a GE in 2019. Any other option it's total bloody chaos and probably a GE happens in 2019, with the only alternatives being a powerless minority government unable to pass anything.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 25,894
    HYUFD said:

    The Deal is Remainers and No Dealers second choice though, hence the Deal tends to beat No Deal in polls head to head and tie Remain
    It's Remain 59%, Deal 41% in yesterday's YouGov.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 23,723
    justin124 said:

    We are now barely 3.25 years from this Parliament having to be dissolved - ie end of March 2022.

    With the current political uncertainty, 3.25 years is an eternity.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 40,584
    Scott_P said:
    No deal Brexiters and remainers who don't care if no deal is risked (I think push comes to shove we'll revoke too, but boy what a risk to take).
  • The clueless wonder is the only certain contender.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 14,096

    It is scary that she is a solicitor. What does that say about the state of legal training at the moment?

    She seems to be claiming incompetence as her defence.
    The university of Hertfordshire not exactly known for its academic excellence.
    Started life as Hatfield Technical College.
    I understand it's excellent for engineering but not very much else. IIRC it had some very poor pharmacy results.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 25,605
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    No deal Brexiters and remainers who don't care if no deal is risked (I think push comes to shove we'll revoke too, but boy what a risk to take).
    There are both Leavers and Remainers who favour No Deal. The former, because they believe it would be a good thing, the latter, because they think it would be a bad thing.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 6,322

    justin124 said:

    We are now barely 3.25 years from this Parliament having to be dissolved - ie end of March 2022.

    With the current political uncertainty, 3.25 years is an eternity.
    Depends how one views it! It matches the period that Corbyn has already been Labour leader.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 33,026
    edited December 2018

    It is scary that she is a solicitor. What does that say about the state of legal training at the moment?

    She seems to be claiming incompetence as her defence.
    The university of Hertfordshire not exactly known for its academic excellence.
    Started life as Hatfield Technical College.
    I understand it's excellent for engineering but not very much else. IIRC it had some very poor pharmacy results.
    By excellent, you mean ranked 57th of 69 unis that offer it...if that is what they are good at, the other courses must be truly terrible.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 2,127
    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    Does it not depend on when and how the government collapses? There may not be time to find a replacement for May.

    There won't be. Deal passes and the DUP cause a GE in 2019. Any other option it's total bloody chaos and probably a GE happens in 2019, with the only alternatives being a powerless minority government unable to pass anything.
    So nothing has changed there either.

    A GE now would almost certainly produce another powerless minority government unable to pass anything. But nevertheless I think either a referendum or GE, and quite possibly both, will occur in 2019.
  • Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    No deal Brexiters and remainers who don't care if no deal is risked (I think push comes to shove we'll revoke too, but boy what a risk to take).
    There are both Leavers and Remainers who favour No Deal. The former, because they believe it would be a good thing, the latter, because they think it would be a bad thing.
    I'm a democrat, the vote must be honoured.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 10,532

    It is scary that she is a solicitor. What does that say about the state of legal training at the moment?

    She seems to be claiming incompetence as her defence.
    I'm actually going to disagree.

    It's not unusual that the defence puts points to the defendant so they can be denied.

    It is important that the defendant's case is fully articulated, because a jury cannot invent an alternative defence for the defendant.
    True.

    Here's an example of lawyering you really don't want to see as a potential defendant:

    https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/week-transcript-12-16-18-rudy-giuliani-sen/story?id=59840122
    GIULIANI: I had this specific conversation with his lawyers and that liar can say what he wants, I told his lawyers there will be no discussion of a pardon. That doesn’t mean the president doesn’t have the -- nobody’s giving away any power, but do not consider it in your thinking now. It has nothing about what you should decide about yourself. I think that’s one of the reasons why he double-crossed....

    Good old Rudy admits on national TV that he's been in talks with Cohen's lawyers about a potential pardon - and then goes on to suggest that Cohen dropped the dime on Trump when he was told a pardon wouldn't be forthcoming.
  • justin124 said:

    We are now barely 3.25 years from this Parliament having to be dissolved - ie end of March 2022.

    With the current political uncertainty, 3.25 years is an eternity.
    3.25 years was half my married life, so yes an eternity.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 10,532
    Sean_F said:

    Government of National Unity needs a PM.

    May I humbly suggest Sir Keir Starmer, Hillary Benn, Dominic Grieve, or Ken Clarke (pbuh).

    Andrew Bridgen.
    Mind your language.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,562
    edited December 2018
    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    Does it not depend on when and how the government collapses? There may not be time to find a replacement for May.

    There won't be. Deal passes and the DUP cause a GE in 2019. Any other option it's total bloody chaos and probably a GE happens in 2019, with the only alternatives being a powerless minority government unable to pass anything.
    I confess I am also having trouble working out when the election of May's replacement is supposed to happen. This government teeters on the brink daily and May is now (thanks to those tactical geniuses in the ERG) safe from an internal challenge for a year. That's a very long time.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 10,532
    To be fair, there is a big overlap between Brexiteers, and those who get riled up about the overseas aid budget.
    Win/win for them, I guess.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 33,026
    edited December 2018
    Capitalism China style...

    How scammers in China manipulate amazon

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 1,545
    Well the 16% chance for JC represents the sum of (i) he gets in without a GE and (ii) the election comes so soon that the tories don't get the chance to replace TM. That sounds about the right price to me. I wish it were longer because JC4NEXTPM is one of my biggest lays.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    HYUFD said:

    The Deal is Remainers and No Dealers second choice though, hence the Deal tends to beat No Deal in polls head to head and tie Remain
    Not according to YouGov. They have remain as No Dealer's second choice, in line with the ERG who consider May's deal a humiliation.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    That was Tammy Wynette.
    She is dead.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,562
    Nigelb said:

    To be fair, there is a big overlap between Brexiteers, and those who get riled up about the overseas aid budget.
    Win/win for them, I guess.
    Only the most dedicated remainers can convince themselves that Cumbria is going to get short of water. Presumably they think the locusts will drink it all.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 24,665
    It seems a bit ridiculous for parliament to take a 2 week break when there are so many important issues to be discussed and decided upon.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 1,325
    Nigelb said:


    Good old Rudy admits on national TV that he's been in talks with Cohen's lawyers about a potential pardon - and then goes on to suggest that Cohen dropped the dime on Trump when he was told a pardon wouldn't be forthcoming.

    It's rather amusing that the President of the USA is considered such a liability that he can't get even halfway competent lawyers to work for him.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 25,894
    Tammy Wynette is more than ancient... She's dead.
  • mattmatt Posts: 2,527
    edited December 2018

    It is scary that she is a solicitor. What does that say about the state of legal training at the moment?

    She seems to be claiming incompetence as her defence.
    The university of Hertfordshire not exactly known for its academic excellence.
    Before you patronise too much, I believe that law there is pretty good. Not brilliant but neither is it appalling.

    As I said before, I wouldn’t be surprised if she threw her brother under the bus (not pre-agreed to be clear). Family relations can be repaired. If she loses though, MP over, practicing certificate will go. From what one can see it’s not as if she has anything to fall back on. In practice her life as it is will be irrevocably over with no obvious alternative.

    It’s a pretty easy choice. I’ve no doubt it would be true if she claimed it as lying to a court would not be helpful.
  • Tammy Wynette is more than ancient... She's dead.
    Of course. I am so embarrassed
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,562
    Nigelb said:

    It is scary that she is a solicitor. What does that say about the state of legal training at the moment?

    She seems to be claiming incompetence as her defence.
    I'm actually going to disagree.

    It's not unusual that the defence puts points to the defendant so they can be denied.

    It is important that the defendant's case is fully articulated, because a jury cannot invent an alternative defence for the defendant.
    True.

    Here's an example of lawyering you really don't want to see as a potential defendant:

    https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/week-transcript-12-16-18-rudy-giuliani-sen/story?id=59840122
    GIULIANI: I had this specific conversation with his lawyers and that liar can say what he wants, I told his lawyers there will be no discussion of a pardon. That doesn’t mean the president doesn’t have the -- nobody’s giving away any power, but do not consider it in your thinking now. It has nothing about what you should decide about yourself. I think that’s one of the reasons why he double-crossed....

    Good old Rudy admits on national TV that he's been in talks with Cohen's lawyers about a potential pardon - and then goes on to suggest that Cohen dropped the dime on Trump when he was told a pardon wouldn't be forthcoming.
    With friends like this my bet on Trump being re-elected is looking more of a long shot than I expected.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 10,532
    Andrew said:

    Nigelb said:


    Good old Rudy admits on national TV that he's been in talks with Cohen's lawyers about a potential pardon - and then goes on to suggest that Cohen dropped the dime on Trump when he was told a pardon wouldn't be forthcoming.

    It's rather amusing that the President of the USA is considered such a liability that he can't get even halfway competent lawyers to work for him.
    On this evidence, he does seem to be able to employ not even halfway competent lawyers to work against him, though.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 33,026
    edited December 2018
    matt said:

    It is scary that she is a solicitor. What does that say about the state of legal training at the moment?

    She seems to be claiming incompetence as her defence.
    The university of Hertfordshire not exactly known for its academic excellence.
    Before you patronise too much, I believe that law there is pretty good. Not brilliant but neither is it appalling.

    As I said before, I wouldn’t be surprised if she threw her brother under the bus (not pre-agreed to be clear). Family relations can be repaired. If she loses though, MP over, practicing certificate will go. From what one can see it’s not as if she has anything to fall back on. In practice her life as it is will be irrevocably over with no obvious alternative.

    It’s a pretty easy choice. I’ve no doubt it would be true if she claimed it as lying to a court would not be helpful.
    Pretty good? Ranked 81st out of 101 in law....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 40,584
    AndyJS said:

    It seems a bit ridiculous for parliament to take a 2 week break when there are so many important issues to be discussed and decided upon.

    It does, however on the other hand they have discussed the issues to death, and they are not actually going to advance things with more discussion. Decisions would be welcome, and would be possible at least in ruling out options, but are they really any more or less likely to make a call now or in 2 weeks?
  • Dolly Parton has mastered the presentational aspects required of any politician:

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