An amusing line, but of course as I am sure many people are replying to him right now, even more Labour MPs didn't think Corbyn was good enough to run his party, and all but one of them still said he was good enough to be PM come the GE (and that one is no longer a member of the party). So it's exactly the kind of nonsense a pundit would say.
An heroic piece of spinning. Not that he'll even be forgiven for past expressions of doubt in Corbyn, of course.
Besides, the argument is invalid. Faced with a straight choice between Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn for PM, of course they're going to support Theresa May. For God's sake they'd vote for Andrew Bridgen or Christopher Chope in a forced choice versus Corbyn!
I think this demonstrates why this VONC is a good idea.
Time for the DUP to piss or get off the pot, as they say.
Precisely.
The ERG lacked the numbers but tried anyway. The DUP have the numbers but seem to be unwilling to use them.
They don't want to pull the plug until absolutely necessary. They, unlike everyone else, can afford to wait it out.
The DUP are very happy having the whip hand over the Tories.
Some Tories seem to like that whip, if not the party whip.
Well, there are many arses in the ERG, which do traditionally have an affinity with whips.
Lass from my college went off to become a high-end London escort, used to tell those favoured alumni who were close to her some interesting gossip about the kinks of Tory MPs. From what filtered to me second-hand, the full version must have included some top-rate anecdotes.
Lad from my college, of the more puritanically evangelical Christian persuasion, became an MP. But don't believe they were ever in one another's company.
What May says and what May does are not necessarily the same thing.
FPT: yeah, Mr. Jessop, you did a very good job, though. I had a quick think for improving the flow (when I beta read for other people I try to come up with suggestions as "this could be better", whilst accurate, isn't hugely helpful) but nothing came to mind.
You should repost it.
Here ye go:
I am the very model of a Brexiteer-General, I've less information than a vegetable, animal, or mineral, I love the kings of England, and I fight the fights historical From Amsterdam to Maastricht, in order categorical; I'm ill acquainted, too, with matters mathematical, For me all votes of confidence are problematical, About the evils of Europe I'm teeming with a lot o' news, (bothered for a rhyme) With many dismal facts about those awful remainers' views.
Good although line 1 I think it needs to be “ “Brexit armchair general” to scan properly (vs modern major general”
I think this demonstrates why this VONC is a good idea.
Time for the DUP to piss or get off the pot, as they say.
Precisely.
The ERG lacked the numbers but tried anyway. The DUP have the numbers but seem to be unwilling to use them.
They don't want to pull the plug until absolutely necessary. They, unlike everyone else, can afford to wait it out.
The DUP are very happy having the whip hand over the Tories.
Some Tories seem to like that whip, if not the party whip.
Well, there are many arses in the ERG, which do traditionally have an affinity with whips.
Lass from my college went off to become a high-end London escort, used to tell those favoured alumni who were close to her some interesting gossip about the kinks of Tory MPs. From what filtered to me second-hand, the full version must have included some top-rate anecdotes.
Lad from my college, of the more puritanically evangelical Christian persuasion, became an MP. But don't believe they were ever in one another's company.
Theresa May is going to head into the Christmas holiday with both her Party and Parliament voting to say they have confidence in her leadership...
Maybe that's what they want. To tarnish them all publicly.
Seems like a complete waste of time to me,
I doubt Jezza would have done this if he hadn't got MP's whining about him not calling a VONC in the government.
If May can win this vote, then a VONC clearly won't get through either, so Labour will find it much harder to stay on the fence over a second referendum.
So hold on May would be expected to resign and the tories elect a new leader...is jezza sure he wants that?
Does Corbyn actually know what the difference is between PM and Goverment in this situation?
I am not 100% convinced he does.
I would assume those more canny than him plotted this out.
If Macdonnell didn't know, then that won't have happened. He's the only one at the top of Labour with a fully functioning brain, even if he does sometimes make Dominic Cummings look like a sane and responsible human being.
Factoid of the day
Dominic Cummings father in law has a genus (I assume - not a geneticist) of cattle that is the closest throwback we have to the auroch
Theresa May is going to head into the Christmas holiday with both her Party and Parliament voting to say they have confidence in her leadership...
Maybe that's what they want. To tarnish them all publicly.
Seems like a complete waste of time to me,
I doubt Jezza would have done this if he hadn't got MP's whining about him not calling a VONC in the government.
If May can win this vote, then a VONC clearly won't get through either, so Labour will find it much harder to stay on the fence over a second referendum.
I'm sure Jezza will find a way - He has been LEAVE for 40 years don't you know!
Theresa May is going to head into the Christmas holiday with both her Party and Parliament voting to say they have confidence in her leadership...
Maybe that's what they want. To tarnish them all publicly.
Seems like a complete waste of time to me,
I doubt Jezza would have done this if he hadn't got MP's whining about him not calling a VONC in the government.
If May can win this vote, then a VONC clearly won't get through either, so Labour will find it much harder to stay on the fence over a second referendum.
Which is also unlikely to get through the House.
The ERG really should have waited. A party vote was the only way of breaking this deadlock and they muffed it. They're as useless as Gordon Brown's moral compass.
Theresa May is going to head into the Christmas holiday with both her Party and Parliament voting to say they have confidence in her leadership...
Maybe that's what they want. To tarnish them all publicly.
Seems like a complete waste of time to me,
I doubt Jezza would have done this if he hadn't got MP's whining about him not calling a VONC in the government.
Not a waste of time. A win win.
If it passes Labour gets its election (probably) If it loses Labour are then free to pivot to a people’s vote, whilst saying they did their democratic bit and tying Tories to May.
So hold on May would be expected to resign and the tories elect a new leader...is jezza sure he wants that?
Does Corbyn actually know what the difference is between PM and Goverment in this situation?
I am not 100% convinced he does.
I would assume those more canny than him plotted this out.
If Macdonnell didn't know, then that won't have happened. He's the only one at the top of Labour with a fully functioning brain, even if he does sometimes make Dominic Cummings look like a sane and responsible human being.
Factoid of the day
Dominic Cummings father in law has a genus (I assume - not a geneticist) of cattle that is the closest throwback we have to the auroch
So you're saying that Cummings is possessed of a rare amount of bull?
Theresa May is going to head into the Christmas holiday with both her Party and Parliament voting to say they have confidence in her leadership...
Maybe that's what they want. To tarnish them all publicly.
Seems like a complete waste of time to me,
I doubt Jezza would have done this if he hadn't got MP's whining about him not calling a VONC in the government.
Not a waste of time. A win win.
If it passes Labour gets its election (probably) If it loses Labour are then free to pivot to a people’s vote, whilst saying they did their democratic bit and tying Tories to May.
I trust Jezza to help run down the clock until it's too late for a Losers Vote!
Theresa May is going to head into the Christmas holiday with both her Party and Parliament voting to say they have confidence in her leadership...
Maybe that's what they want. To tarnish them all publicly.
Seems like a complete waste of time to me,
I doubt Jezza would have done this if he hadn't got MP's whining about him not calling a VONC in the government.
Not a waste of time. A win win.
If it passes Labour gets its election (probably) If it loses Labour are then free to pivot to a people’s vote, whilst saying they did their democratic bit and tying Tories to May.
I trust Jezza to help run down the clock until it's too late for a Losers Vote!
Imagine if you wanted to rally the troops round the government without taking a course of action that impels you to go for a losers vote.
Government discussing age verification. To be fair I'd trust pornhub with my details more than the government if this comes in...
The only people who will be getting my details are the card provider that I use to pay for my VPN. Absolutely shocking legislation, and a reminder why this lot simply isn't worth getting out and voting for.
JRM just complimented TM on her success last week and pledged his support to her !!!!
Was that in the HoC or an interview?
Either way he might well support her in every way, short of, you know, supporting her in votes.
I don't think any Conservative MP could vote against her on a Labour motion and hope to have their local party support them. Certainly not with a Corbyn government as a possible result. They would surely be deselected.
While I would shed no tears for Rees Mogg, instinct tells me he simply will not do it for that reason.
Theresa May is going to head into the Christmas holiday with both her Party and Parliament voting to say they have confidence in her leadership...
Maybe that's what they want. To tarnish them all publicly.
Seems like a complete waste of time to me,
I doubt Jezza would have done this if he hadn't got MP's whining about him not calling a VONC in the government.
Not a waste of time. A win win.
If it passes Labour gets its election (probably) If it loses Labour are then free to pivot to a people’s vote, whilst saying they did their democratic bit and tying Tories to May.
How does labour get an election. Corbyn is clueless
Theresa May is going to head into the Christmas holiday with both her Party and Parliament voting to say they have confidence in her leadership...
Maybe that's what they want. To tarnish them all publicly.
Seems like a complete waste of time to me,
I doubt Jezza would have done this if he hadn't got MP's whining about him not calling a VONC in the government.
Not a waste of time. A win win.
If it passes Labour gets its election (probably) If it loses Labour are then free to pivot to a people’s vote, whilst saying they did their democratic bit and tying Tories to May.
Except that this is a way of avoiding pivoting to a second people's vote.
What May says and what May does are not necessarily the same thing.
FPT: yeah, Mr. Jessop, you did a very good job, though. I had a quick think for improving the flow (when I beta read for other people I try to come up with suggestions as "this could be better", whilst accurate, isn't hugely helpful) but nothing came to mind.
You should repost it.
Here ye go:
I am the very model of a Brexiteer-General, I've less information than a vegetable, animal, or mineral, I love the kings of England, and I fight the fights historical From Amsterdam to Maastricht, in order categorical; I'm ill acquainted, too, with matters mathematical, For me all votes of confidence are problematical, About the evils of Europe I'm teeming with a lot o' news, (bothered for a rhyme) With many dismal facts about those awful remainers' views.
Good although line 1 I think it needs to be “ “Brexit armchair general” to scan properly (vs modern major general”
Government discussing age verification. To be fair I'd trust pornhub with my details more than the government if this comes in...
The only people who will be getting my details are the card provider that I use to pay for my VPN. Absolutely shocking legislation, and a reminder why this lot simply isn't worth getting out and voting for.
She could do what has been done on occasion in a few other countries like Ireland and Spain whereby she remains PM right up to the election but a new leader is the party's candidate for PM.
So hold on May would be expected to resign and the tories elect a new leader...is jezza sure he wants that?
Does Corbyn actually know what the difference is between PM and Goverment in this situation?
I am not 100% convinced he does.
I would assume those more canny than him plotted this out.
If Macdonnell didn't know, then that won't have happened. He's the only one at the top of Labour with a fully functioning brain, even if he does sometimes make Dominic Cummings look like a sane and responsible human being.
Factoid of the day
Dominic Cummings father in law has a genus (I assume - not a geneticist) of cattle that is the closest throwback we have to the auroch
So you're saying that Cummings is possessed of a rare amount of bull?
No argument from me...
I thought Corbyn hired Milne as spin doctor to tell his boss what to do and say, also needing some brainpower.
Theresa May is going to head into the Christmas holiday with both her Party and Parliament voting to say they have confidence in her leadership...
Maybe that's what they want. To tarnish them all publicly.
Seems like a complete waste of time to me,
I doubt Jezza would have done this if he hadn't got MP's whining about him not calling a VONC in the government.
Not a waste of time. A win win.
If it passes Labour gets its election (probably) If it loses Labour are then free to pivot to a people’s vote, whilst saying they did their democratic bit and tying Tories to May.
Agree with that if Labout pivots to a people's vote afterwards. Have zero confidence that they will (although happy to be proven wrong....)
JRM just complimented TM on her success last week and pledged his support to her !!!!
Was that in the HoC or an interview?
Either way he might well support her in every way, short of, you know, supporting her in votes.
I don't think any Conservative MP could vote against her on a Labour motion and hope to have their local party support them. Certainly not with a Corbyn government as a possible result. They would surely be deselected.
While I would shed no tears for Rees Mogg, instinct tells me he simply will not do it for that reason.
I meant other than confidence votes. He won't vote for any deal, and if it were to pass somehow he'd rebel constantly, I have no doubt. This is the same chap making up constitutional rules immediately after losing a vote.
What May says and what May does are not necessarily the same thing.
FPT: yeah, Mr. Jessop, you did a very good job, though. I had a quick think for improving the flow (when I beta read for other people I try to come up with suggestions as "this could be better", whilst accurate, isn't hugely helpful) but nothing came to mind.
You should repost it.
Here ye go:
I am the very model of a Brexiteer-General, I've less information than a vegetable, animal, or mineral, I love the kings of England, and I fight the fights historical From Amsterdam to Maastricht, in order categorical; I'm ill acquainted, too, with matters mathematical, For me all votes of confidence are problematical, About the evils of Europe I'm teeming with a lot o' news, (bothered for a rhyme) With many dismal facts about those awful remainers' views.
Good although line 1 I think it needs to be “ “Brexit armchair general” to scan properly (vs modern major general”
That's a great alteration, thanks.
The second line is still a problem.
I'm ignorant of vegetable, animal, and mineral, ??
How does labour get an election. Corbyn is clueless
The Lib Dems attacking him tonight
Well of course - Vince is no fan of Jeremy's for historic reasons. I suspect there are those in the Party who see the second referendum as the USP for the Party that opposing the Iraq War was all those years ago. IF Labour are moving away from wanting a second vote (given the electoral implication suggested by YouGov that wouldn't be a big surprise) it helps the LDs to be seen as the leaders of the call for that second vote.
Today's Sky poll suggesting a clear majority for REMAIN also enhances the calls for either the revocation of A50 or for the second vote.
YouGov notably failed to ask (or publish) the electoral implications of the Conservatives supporting the revoking of A50.
We seem to have the Conservatives supporting Brexit (either via the May Deal or not), Labour moving toward abandoning Brexit without a vote via revocation of A50 and the LDs supporting a second vote.
As is often the case, confusion ultimately begets clarity.
Is this motion amendable? To, say, express no confidence in a different named individual, perhaps the only MP on the opposition benches to draw an additional salary?
What would happen if Labour said to the ERG and the DUP, back this vote of no confidence or we vote for May's Deal next month?
They'd laugh at him and publish his comments to show him as a third-rate unprincipled opportunist, utterly destroying his credibility with the Labour base.
An heroic piece of spinning. Not that he'll even be forgiven for past expressions of doubt in Corbyn, of course.
Besides, the argument is invalid. Faced with a straight choice between Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn for PM, of course they're going to support Theresa May. For God's sake they'd vote for Andrew Bridgen or Christopher Chope in a forced choice versus Corbyn!
Well, probably.
As would a lot of the country. Even now, YouGov have the Conservatives back in a 4% lead. However, if a GE becomes about Brexit with the Conservatives wanting to go ahead and Labour et al standing on a 2nd referendum platform, then the Con lead goes up to 8%.
What would happen if Labour said to the ERG and the DUP, back this vote of no confidence or we vote for May's Deal next month?
It would be hilarious.
But 'vote down the PM for her handling of Brexit or we will endorse her handling of Brexit by approving it' is unlikely to be a compelling suggestion.
Well they could make a case for saying they don't want this deal but want no deal even less. So either pull the plug (so we can negotiate a new deal) or we will have no choice but to ratify this deal to avoid no deal.
An heroic piece of spinning. Not that he'll even be forgiven for past expressions of doubt in Corbyn, of course.
Besides, the argument is invalid. Faced with a straight choice between Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn for PM, of course they're going to support Theresa May. For God's sake they'd vote for Andrew Bridgen or Christopher Chope in a forced choice versus Corbyn!
Well, probably.
As would a lot of the country. Even now, YouGov have the Conservatives back in a 4% lead. However, if a GE becomes about Brexit with the Conservatives wanting to go ahead and Labour et al standing on a 2nd referendum platform, then the Con lead goes up to 8%.
Another example of a week being a long time in politics.
Last week 117 Tory MPs say that they don't have confidence in May.
This week...
It is quite possible, if ridiculous, that someone maintains that person A is not the best choice to lead the party and by extension the country, while also believing that person A is still superior to person B.
As an aside, the FTSE 100 closed tonight at 6773 - it was 7779 on May 13th so it's going to need a big Santa rally to recoup the year's losses as it was 7592 on 17/12/17.
To provide some context, however, the FTSE closed at 6731 on 27th November 2016 so is still higher than that previous low point.
On Feb 7th 2016 the index closed at 5707 so the rise since then remains impressive.
What would happen if Labour said to the ERG and the DUP, back this vote of no confidence or we vote for May's Deal next month?
They'd laugh at him and publish his comments to show him as a third-rate unprincipled opportunist, utterly destroying his credibility with the Labour base.
Go for it, Jezza!
It could be presented as a principled stance without too much difficulty - "If we were in government we should seek a better deal, but if there is no change of government we shall reluctantly have to let the existing deal pass - purely to avoid the disastrous consequences of leaving without any deal."
But presumably Corbyn's preferred deal would be even less welcome to the ERG and the DUP anyway? (Unless the DUP are so fixated on parity of treatment for NI that they would be willing to pay the price of a closer relationship with Europe to maintain it.)
What would happen if Labour said to the ERG and the DUP, back this vote of no confidence or we vote for May's Deal next month?
It would be hilarious.
But 'vote down the PM for her handling of Brexit or we will endorse her handling of Brexit by approving it' is unlikely to be a compelling suggestion.
Well they could make a case for saying they don't want this deal but want no deal even less. So either pull the plug (so we can negotiate a new deal) or we will have no choice but to ratify this deal to avoid no deal.
To be fair there are several scenarios under which they could vote through the deal, which has the added benefit of almost certainly leading to an election as the DUP react. Unfortunately they really really do not want to be seen to be aiding Brexit in any way, especially not a deal they have called terrible, and with most of their MPs and members desperate to remain. They are not actually that opposed to no deal I think, certainly not if the price of preventing it is backing a Tory Brexit.
As an aside, the FTSE 100 closed tonight at 6773 - it was 7779 on May 13th so it's going to need a big Santa rally to recoup the year's losses as it was 7592 on 17/12/17.
To provide some context, however, the FTSE closed at 6731 on 27th November 2016 so is still higher than that previous low point.
On Feb 7th 2016 the index closed at 5707 so the rise since then remains impressive.
Another example of a week being a long time in politics.
Last week 117 Tory MPs say that they don't have confidence in May.
This week...
Yep. They’ll look real muppets if support for May against Labour’s VNOC turns into support for her deal as well.
I don't think Labour would mind if the deal passed. It would take a few Labour rebels but the party as a whole could continue to present that they might have have backed remain, and might have gotten better leave deals. In some ways that would be ideal for them. I wouldn't be surprised if some of the more tactically minded in the labour leadership are irritated at just how unpopular the deal is that is has no chance of passing and that it might force them to determine a position at some point.
What would happen if Labour said to the ERG and the DUP, back this vote of no confidence or we vote for May's Deal next month?
Good question - probably far too smart an idea for the Labour leasdership
Won’t happen. Labour would lose any chance of DUP support for a VNOC in the Gov which surely has to be their next move when May loses the vote on her deal.
What would happen if Labour said to the ERG and the DUP, back this vote of no confidence or we vote for May's Deal next month?
They'd laugh at him and publish his comments to show him as a third-rate unprincipled opportunist, utterly destroying his credibility with the Labour base.
Go for it, Jezza!
Cult wouldn’t believe it, magic grandpa is total principled and never lies, pure as the driven snow.
Another example of a week being a long time in politics.
Last week 117 Tory MPs say that they don't have confidence in May.
This week...
Yep. They’ll look real muppets if support for May against Labour’s VNOC turns into support for her deal as well.
I don't think Labour would mind if the deal passed. It would take a few Labour rebels but the party as a whole could continue to present that they might have have backed remain, and might have gotten better leave deals. In some ways that would be ideal for them. I wouldn't be surprised if some of the more tactically minded in the labour leadership are irritated at just how unpopular the deal is that is has no chance of passing and that it might force them to determine a position at some point.
I beg to differ. Labour would lose any chance of DUP support for a VNOC in the Gov which has to be their next move when May’s deal fails. Their chance of an early general election needs May’s deal to fail. No reason for them to support it.
Another example of a week being a long time in politics.
Last week 117 Tory MPs say that they don't have confidence in May.
This week...
Yep. They’ll look real muppets if support for May against Labour’s VNOC turns into support for her deal as well.
I don't think Labour would mind if the deal passed. It would take a few Labour rebels but the party as a whole could continue to present that they might have have backed remain, and might have gotten better leave deals. In some ways that would be ideal for them. I wouldn't be surprised if some of the more tactically minded in the labour leadership are irritated at just how unpopular the deal is that is has no chance of passing and that it might force them to determine a position at some point.
I beg to differ. Labour would lose any chance of DUP support for a VNOC in the Gov which has to be their next move when May’s deal fails. Their chance of an early general election needs May’s deal to fail. No reason for them to support it.
I think you've misunderstood - I wasn't speculating that the Labour leadership would ever back the deal, just that they would not actually mind if it had managed to pass thanks to rebel votes. If it passed thanks to rebel votes and relatively united Tories the DUP could hardly blame Labour as a whole, and would take the Tories down.
But of course the deal is simply too unpopular to pass with a few labour rebels (who do not seem inclined anyway).
So hold on May would be expected to resign and the tories elect a new leader...is jezza sure he wants that?
Does Corbyn actually know what the difference is between PM and Goverment in this situation?
I am not 100% convinced he does.
I would assume those more canny than him plotted this out.
If Macdonnell didn't know, then that won't have happened. He's the only one at the top of Labour with a fully functioning brain, even if he does sometimes make Dominic Cummings look like a sane and responsible human being.
Factoid of the day
Dominic Cummings father in law has a genus (I assume - not a geneticist) of cattle that is the closest throwback we have to the auroch
So you're saying that Cummings is possessed of a rare amount of bull?
Another example of a week being a long time in politics.
Last week 117 Tory MPs say that they don't have confidence in May.
This week...
Yep. They’ll look real muppets if support for May against Labour’s VNOC turns into support for her deal as well.
I don't think Labour would mind if the deal passed. It would take a few Labour rebels but the party as a whole could continue to present that they might have have backed remain, and might have gotten better leave deals. In some ways that would be ideal for them. I wouldn't be surprised if some of the more tactically minded in the labour leadership are irritated at just how unpopular the deal is that is has no chance of passing and that it might force them to determine a position at some point.
I beg to differ. Labour would lose any chance of DUP support for a VNOC in the Gov which has to be their next move when May’s deal fails. Their chance of an early general election needs May’s deal to fail. No reason for them to support it.
Aren't the DUP likelier to support a VONC if the deal passes?
Another example of a week being a long time in politics.
Last week 117 Tory MPs say that they don't have confidence in May.
This week...
On November 23rd 1990, 367 Conservative MPs opposed a motion of No Confidence put forward by Labour leader Neil Kinnock. Among those Conservatives were no doubt a considerable number who had voted against Margaret Thatcher in the ballot earlier that week and were no doubt relieved she had agreed to resign.
Not supporting your leader and not supporting your Government are two very different things. Even the most extreme ERG member would not be so stupid as to not support the Government in a Vote of Confidence.
So hold on May would be expected to resign and the tories elect a new leader...is jezza sure he wants that?
Does Corbyn actually know what the difference is between PM and Goverment in this situation?
I am not 100% convinced he does.
I would assume those more canny than him plotted this out.
If Macdonnell didn't know, then that won't have happened. He's the only one at the top of Labour with a fully functioning brain, even if he does sometimes make Dominic Cummings look like a sane and responsible human being.
Factoid of the day
Dominic Cummings father in law has a genus (I assume - not a geneticist) of cattle that is the closest throwback we have to the auroch
So you're saying that Cummings is possessed of a rare amount of bull?
Another example of a week being a long time in politics.
Last week 117 Tory MPs say that they don't have confidence in May.
This week...
Yep. They’ll look real muppets if support for May against Labour’s VNOC turns into support for her deal as well.
I don't think Labour would mind if the deal passed. It would take a few Labour rebels but the party as a whole could continue to present that they might have have backed remain, and might have gotten better leave deals. In some ways that would be ideal for them. I wouldn't be surprised if some of the more tactically minded in the labour leadership are irritated at just how unpopular the deal is that is has no chance of passing and that it might force them to determine a position at some point.
I beg to differ. Labour would lose any chance of DUP support for a VNOC in the Gov which has to be their next move when May’s deal fails. Their chance of an early general election needs May’s deal to fail. No reason for them to support it.
I think you've misunderstood - I wasn't speculating that the Labour leadership would ever back the deal, just that they would not actually mind if it had managed to pass thanks to rebel votes. If it passed thanks to rebel votes and relatively united Tories the DUP could hardly blame Labour as a whole, and would take the Tories down.
But of course the deal is simply too unpopular to pass with a few labour rebels (who do not seem inclined anyway).
Another example of a week being a long time in politics.
Last week 117 Tory MPs say that they don't have confidence in May.
This week...
Yep. They’ll look real muppets if support for May against Labour’s VNOC turns into support for her deal as well.
I don't think Labour would mind if the deal passed. It would take a few Labour rebels but the party as a whole could continue to present that they might have have backed remain, and might have gotten better leave deals. In some ways that would be ideal for them. I wouldn't be surprised if some of the more tactically minded in the labour leadership are irritated at just how unpopular the deal is that is has no chance of passing and that it might force them to determine a position at some point.
I beg to differ. Labour would lose any chance of DUP support for a VNOC in the Gov which has to be their next move when May’s deal fails. Their chance of an early general election needs May’s deal to fail. No reason for them to support it.
Aren't the DUP likelier to support a VONC if the deal passes?
Another example of a week being a long time in politics.
Last week 117 Tory MPs say that they don't have confidence in May.
This week...
Yep. They’ll look real muppets if support for May against Labour’s VNOC turns into support for her deal as well.
I don't think Labour would mind if the deal passed. It would take a few Labour rebels but the party as a whole could continue to present that they might have have backed remain, and might have gotten better leave deals. In some ways that would be ideal for them. I wouldn't be surprised if some of the more tactically minded in the labour leadership are irritated at just how unpopular the deal is that is has no chance of passing and that it might force them to determine a position at some point.
I beg to differ. Labour would lose any chance of DUP support for a VNOC in the Gov which has to be their next move when May’s deal fails. Their chance of an early general election needs May’s deal to fail. No reason for them to support it.
Aren't the DUP likelier to support a VONC if the deal passes?
Another example of a week being a long time in politics.
Last week 117 Tory MPs say that they don't have confidence in May.
This week...
Yep. They’ll look real muppets if support for May against Labour’s VNOC turns into support for her deal as well.
I don't think Labour would mind if the deal passed. It would take a few Labour rebels but the party as a whole could continue to present that they might have have backed remain, and might have gotten better leave deals. In some ways that would be ideal for them. I wouldn't be surprised if some of the more tactically minded in the labour leadership are irritated at just how unpopular the deal is that is has no chance of passing and that it might force them to determine a position at some point.
I beg to differ. Labour would lose any chance of DUP support for a VNOC in the Gov which has to be their next move when May’s deal fails. Their chance of an early general election needs May’s deal to fail. No reason for them to support it.
I think you've misunderstood - I wasn't speculating that the Labour leadership would ever back the deal, just that they would not actually mind if it had managed to pass thanks to rebel votes. If it passed thanks to rebel votes and relatively united Tories the DUP could hardly blame Labour as a whole, and would take the Tories down.
But of course the deal is simply too unpopular to pass with a few labour rebels (who do not seem inclined anyway).
But if Labour abstained?
I cannot fathom it. Particularly given how remain leaning their membership and MPs are. On an issue this crucial too, to essentially allow an outcome they claim would be terrible to occur through the inaction of abstention? How could they?
If there were not an easier path to remain now, and if there were mounting chaos as no deal approached, maybe I could see it, Labour with heavy reluctance saying they cannot in good conscience support it but recognise there is no other choice now. But now the Starmer's among them know A50 can be revoked, and May is clearly very averse to no deal and so they probably think she will back down before them? No.
Olly "My document flapped open when somebody nearby was holding a camera" Robbins, eh? What a farce this government's effort is becoming. In time for pantomime season, bring out the haversack ruse!
Meanwhile, is the ERG busted? Or are the divisions in their cabinet contingent akin to one of those free kicks where four players stand in front of the ball and then run in all different directions when the referee blows his whistle? If they all vote against Jeremy Corbyn's motion of no confidence in the prime minister, they sound like just the kind of "opponents" Theresa May will be grateful for.
Olly "My document flapped open when somebody nearby was holding a camera" Robbins, eh? What a farce this government's effort is becoming. In time for pantomime season, bring out the haversack ruse!
I think any hope that pantomime season might end in January is sadly misplaced.
Another example of a week being a long time in politics.
Last week 117 Tory MPs say that they don't have confidence in May.
This week...
Yep. They’ll look real muppets if support for May against Labour’s VNOC turns into support for her deal as well.
I don't think Labour would mind if the deal passed. It would take a few Labour rebels but the party as a whole could continue to present that they might have have backed remain, and might have gotten better leave deals. In some ways that would be ideal for them. I wouldn't be surprised if some of the more tactically minded in the labour leadership are irritated at just how unpopular the deal is that is has no chance of passing and that it might force them to determine a position at some point.
I beg to differ. Labour would lose any chance of DUP support for a VNOC in the Gov which has to be their next move when May’s deal fails. Their chance of an early general election needs May’s deal to fail. No reason for them to support it.
I think you've misunderstood - I wasn't speculating that the Labour leadership would ever back the deal, just that they would not actually mind if it had managed to pass thanks to rebel votes. If it passed thanks to rebel votes and relatively united Tories the DUP could hardly blame Labour as a whole, and would take the Tories down.
But of course the deal is simply too unpopular to pass with a few labour rebels (who do not seem inclined anyway).
But if Labour abstained?
I cannot fathom it. Particularly given how remain leaning their membership and MPs are. On an issue this crucial too, to essentially allow an outcome they claim would be terrible to occur through the inaction of abstention? How could they?
If there were not an easier path to remain now, and if there were mounting chaos as no deal approached, maybe I could see it, Labour with heavy reluctance saying they cannot in good conscience support it but recognise there is no other choice now. But now the Starmer's among them know A50 can be revoked, and May is clearly very averse to no deal and so they probably think she will back down before them.
I just think abstention seems like a "win-win" strategy for Labour. They save the country from no deal. They evade responsibility for actively supporting May's deal. They respect the result of the referendum. And it ends with the Tories split somewhere near down the middle, and the DUP bringing down the government.
I just think abstention seems like a "win-win" strategy for Labour. They save the country from no deal. They evade responsibility for actively supporting May's deal. They respect the result of the referendum. And it ends with the Tories split somewhere near down the middle, and the DUP bringing down the government.
And it infuriates the 70% of Labour voters that want remain?
Another example of a week being a long time in politics.
Last week 117 Tory MPs say that they don't have confidence in May.
This week...
Yep. They’ll look real muppets if support for May against Labour’s VNOC turns into support for her deal as well.
I don't think Labour would mind if the deal passed. It would take a few Labour rebels but the party as a whole could continue to present that they might have have backed remain, and might have gotten better leave deals. In some ways that would be ideal for them. I wouldn't be surprised if some of the more tactically minded in the labour leadership are irritated at just how unpopular the deal is that is has no chance of passing and that it might force them to determine a position at some point.
I beg to differ. Labour would lose any chance of DUP support for a VNOC in the Gov which has to be their next move when May’s deal fails. Their chance of an early general election needs May’s deal to fail. No reason for them to support it.
I think you've misunderstood - I wasn't speculating that the Labour leadership would ever back the deal, just that they would not actually mind if it had managed to pass thanks to rebel votes. If it passed thanks to rebel votes and relatively united Tories the DUP could hardly blame Labour as a whole, and would take the Tories down.
But of course the deal is simply too unpopular to pass with a few labour rebels (who do not seem inclined anyway).
But if Labour abstained?
I cann them.
I just think abstention seems like a "win-win" strategy for Labour. They save the country from no deal. They evade responsibility for actively supporting May's deal. They respect the result of the referendum. And it ends with the Tories split somewhere near down the middle, and the DUP bringing down the government.
But they would not evade responsibility. Given the numbers of Tories against, Labour abstaining is the same as voting for it. They've made leavery noises and officially been for leave up to now, but their voters want to remain by a very large margin. They can acceptably fail to prevent Brexit and retain support, but to not prevent it when they could have prevented it, or at least this version of it?
Comments
http://www.twitter.com/drdanielwinder/status/1074743265268822016
Besides, the argument is invalid. Faced with a straight choice between Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn for PM, of course they're going to support Theresa May. For God's sake they'd vote for Andrew Bridgen or Christopher Chope in a forced choice versus Corbyn!
Well, probably.
Lad from my college, of the more puritanically evangelical Christian persuasion, became an MP. But don't believe they were ever in one another's company.
Funny old world.
I doubt Jezza would have done this if he hadn't got MP's whining about him not calling a VONC in the government.
Dominic Cummings father in law has a genus (I assume - not a geneticist) of cattle that is the closest throwback we have to the auroch
The ERG really should have waited. A party vote was the only way of breaking this deadlock and they muffed it. They're as useless as Gordon Brown's moral compass.
If it passes Labour gets its election (probably)
If it loses Labour are then free to pivot to a people’s vote, whilst saying they did their democratic bit and tying Tories to May.
No argument from me...
While I would shed no tears for Rees Mogg, instinct tells me he simply will not do it for that reason.
The Lib Dems attacking him tonight
The second line is still a problem.
But 'vote down the PM for her handling of Brexit or we will endorse her handling of Brexit by approving it' is unlikely to be a compelling suggestion.
Today's Sky poll suggesting a clear majority for REMAIN also enhances the calls for either the revocation of A50 or for the second vote.
YouGov notably failed to ask (or publish) the electoral implications of the Conservatives supporting the revoking of A50.
We seem to have the Conservatives supporting Brexit (either via the May Deal or not), Labour moving toward abandoning Brexit without a vote via revocation of A50 and the LDs supporting a second vote.
As is often the case, confusion ultimately begets clarity.
Go for it, Jezza!
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/5v5qj2t7c8/PVResults_181214_Brexit_w.pdf
Commissioned at great shadowy expense by the PeoplesVoteUntilTheyGetTheRightAnswer campaign.
Others still will be flushed with suppressed emotion...
Last week 117 Tory MPs say that they don't have confidence in May.
This week...
I suspect that the real purpose of this motion is to put the DUP on notice and force them to defend a curious position.
https://twitter.com/RaynerSkyNews/status/1074751797393272832
To provide some context, however, the FTSE closed at 6731 on 27th November 2016 so is still higher than that previous low point.
On Feb 7th 2016 the index closed at 5707 so the rise since then remains impressive.
Just saying.
But presumably Corbyn's preferred deal would be even less welcome to the ERG and the DUP anyway? (Unless the DUP are so fixated on parity of treatment for NI that they would be willing to pay the price of a closer relationship with Europe to maintain it.)
But of course the deal is simply too unpopular to pass with a few labour rebels (who do not seem inclined anyway).
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chillingham_cattle
Not supporting your leader and not supporting your Government are two very different things. Even the most extreme ERG member would not be so stupid as to not support the Government in a Vote of Confidence.
"Theresa May’s Brexit deal a greater threat than Jeremy Corbyn, says DUP leader Arlene Foster"
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/conservative-party/theresa-may/news/100109/theresa-mays-brexit-deal
If there were not an easier path to remain now, and if there were mounting chaos as no deal approached, maybe I could see it, Labour with heavy reluctance saying they cannot in good conscience support it but recognise there is no other choice now. But now the Starmer's among them know A50 can be revoked, and May is clearly very averse to no deal and so they probably think she will back down before them? No.
Meanwhile, is the ERG busted? Or are the divisions in their cabinet contingent akin to one of those free kicks where four players stand in front of the ball and then run in all different directions when the referee blows his whistle? If they all vote against Jeremy Corbyn's motion of no confidence in the prime minister, they sound like just the kind of "opponents" Theresa May will be grateful for.
The WA will be ratified.
Funny sort of win/win.
NEW THREAD
Considers labour are playing games