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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Boris’s CON leadership betting spurt appears to have run out o

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited December 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Boris’s CON leadership betting spurt appears to have run out of steam and others are moving up

It is inevitable with all the political moves relating to the prime minister that there is a lot of betting focus at the moment on who will succeed her both as CON leader and also Prime Minister.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 50,001
    First, like May in the recent confidence vote.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Tenth like Corbyn - nothing but tail lights in front
  • The total of the implied odds for the top ten candidates is 74% - so that's about 1-in-4 chance for A N Other.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Mike said:

    "following the culmination of Brexit however that goes, she’s likely to be seen as a lame duck Prime Minister."

    I think she is fairly lame at present
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 19,434
    Boris has blown his chance. Javid or Raab ..
  • OortOort Posts: 96
    edited December 2018
    As the cabinet prepares for a crashout Brexit, is there any word from Anna Soubry, Dominic Grieve, etc. on whether they have confidence in the prime minister?

    We know Jacob Rees-Mogg has. That's not exactly surprising, given that the cabinet is preparing to do exactly what he wants.

    The government say they will not grant any of their own Commons time to Jeremy Corbyn's motion of no confidence in Theresa May. They are almost certainly underestimating Corbyn again. I know Parliament can only be recalled on government request, but can the Speaker extend a session by a day off his own bat? If he does, whose is the extra time?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 14,826
    fifth and falling, like Boris
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 14,096
    None of them give me much confidence, TBH. Just maybe Amber Rudd, who inherited May's cruel immigration policies and paid the price May should have.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,085
    edited December 2018
    Rees Mogg has made a fool of himself in recent days and has no credibility. He seems more in the Boris camp anyway which seems appropriate. Gove has no credibility left with either Remainers or Leavers. Javid and Hunt are straw men - all mouth and nothing else. Rudd and Lidlington are just EU apparatchiks and would just revoke A50 so they have no chance with the membership. Davis is too old so that leaves either Raab or Mordaunt as the only two credible choices.

    The best bet of course would be someone outside Cabinet to come through untainted by the fiasco this Cabinet have made of Brexit but that seems highly unlikely based on history.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 1,275
    Anyone know a good place online to buy Penne in bulk? Asking for a friend.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 10,847

    Anyone know a good place online to buy Penne in bulk? Asking for a friend.

    Italy
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 14,096
    According to the Guardian the Cabinet will, this morning discuss palns for No Deal. At least, according to ABTA, planes will fly to and from Britain on March 30th.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 23,723

    None of them give me much confidence, TBH. Just maybe Amber Rudd, who inherited May's cruel immigration policies and paid the price May should have.

    Rudd could - should - have got ahead of the Windrush problem. It had been brewing for an age. She could have come out of that with her standing significantly increased.

    Plus she may well lose her seat next time.
  • Jonathan said:

    Anyone know a good place online to buy Penne in bulk? Asking for a friend.

    Italy
    I believe there was a rich harvest from the Penne trees this year.
  • Mais où sont les Rees-Moggs d'antan? I've got such a nice red number against Jacob Rees-Mogg's name and not the slightest desire to remove it.

    Taking yesterday's thread on Jeremy Corbyn and today's on Boris Johnson together, who is too long-priced to be next Prime Minister?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 3,915
    TGOHF said:

    Boris has blown his chance. Javid or Raab ..

    He needs 106 Tory MPs to support him to get into the final two and then he's home and dry.

    The calculation of Tory MPs must surely be "Will he be an asset in the GE?" rather than "Will he make a good PM?". I think he has showed himself to be good at winning elections and a referendum.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 50,001
    edited December 2018

    Mais où sont les Rees-Moggs d'antan? I've got such a nice red number against Jacob Rees-Mogg's name and not the slightest desire to remove it.

    Taking yesterday's thread on Jeremy Corbyn and today's on Boris Johnson together, who is too long-priced to be next Prime Minister?

    Personally I reckon Boris is too short.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,562
    I am really struggling to understand this liking for Raab. For me, he has made a series of ignorant statements, he had a brief time at DexEU where he seems to have a very limited understanding of what was going on, when he found out he resigned in a somewhat incoherent way and I have yet to see him make an intelligent contribution since.

    Is it just that he remains a blank canvas onto which people can paint their hopes or am I really missing something?
  • OortOort Posts: 96
    Barnesian said:

    TGOHF said:

    Boris has blown his chance. Javid or Raab ..

    He needs 106 Tory MPs to support him to get into the final two and then he's home and dry.

    The calculation of Tory MPs must surely be "Will he be an asset in the GE?" rather than "Will he make a good PM?". I think he has showed himself to be good at winning elections and a referendum.
    Winning two elections against Ken Livingstone. And the mayor doesn't have his finger on the nuclear button.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 3,915

    None of them give me much confidence, TBH. Just maybe Amber Rudd, who inherited May's cruel immigration policies and paid the price May should have.

    Yes. I can see her as acting PM to rescue the situation if Mrs May collapses but I can't see her being formally elected by the Tory membership.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 36,002
    Oort said:

    As the cabinet prepares for a crashout Brexit, is there any word from Anna Soubry, Dominic Grieve, etc. on whether they have confidence in the prime minister?

    We know Jacob Rees-Mogg has. That's not exactly surprising, given that the cabinet is preparing to do exactly what he wants.

    The government say they will not grant any of their own Commons time to Jeremy Corbyn's motion of no confidence in Theresa May. They are almost certainly underestimating Corbyn again. I know Parliament can only be recalled on government request, but can the Speaker extend a session by a day off his own bat? If he does, whose is the extra time?

    He’d extend the session for a opportunistic stunt by the opposition leader? I’m not so sure....
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,562

    Jonathan said:

    Anyone know a good place online to buy Penne in bulk? Asking for a friend.

    Italy
    I believe there was a rich harvest from the Penne trees this year.
    Weird, I'd heard the opposite, that a cold wind came down from Brexit and shriveled the harvest.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 3,028
    Despite yielding to nobody, not even cockgrabber, in my detestation of Boris I do feel he is a Rooney type big game player. When May has fucked everything up he will be in the final two ready to scrap over the smouldering ruins.
  • The building is Mourihno-less.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 3,915
    DavidL said:

    I am really struggling to understand this liking for Raab. For me, he has made a series of ignorant statements, he had a brief time at DexEU where he seems to have a very limited understanding of what was going on, when he found out he resigned in a somewhat incoherent way and I have yet to see him make an intelligent contribution since.

    Is it just that he remains a blank canvas onto which people can paint their hopes or am I really missing something?

    He's an admirer of Ayn Rand which makes him very dangerous.
  • DavidL said:

    Jonathan said:

    Anyone know a good place online to buy Penne in bulk? Asking for a friend.

    Italy
    I believe there was a rich harvest from the Penne trees this year.
    Weird, I'd heard the opposite, that a cold wind came down from Brexit and shriveled the harvest.
    I heard immigrants stole a lot of it.
    ©Salvini

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 14,826

    Anyone know a good place online to buy Penne in bulk? Asking for a friend.

    Naturali (italianfooddistribution.co.uk)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 14,826
    edited December 2018
    Dura_Ace said:

    Despite yielding to nobody, not even cockgrabber, in my detestation of Boris I do feel he is a Rooney type big game player. When May has fucked everything up he will be in the final two ready to scrap over the smouldering ruins.

    He really does see himself as today's Churchill, waiting for the crisis that will be the making of him. But Churchill had strong convictions and principles, yet Boris has none.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Barnesian said:

    TGOHF said:

    Boris has blown his chance. Javid or Raab ..

    He needs 106 Tory MPs to support him to get into the final two and then he's home and dry.

    The calculation of Tory MPs must surely be "Will he be an asset in the GE?" rather than "Will he make a good PM?". I think he has showed himself to be good at winning elections and a referendum.
    Having heard some Conservative Association types on R4 recently, i suspect that are looking for a sound chap, a good egg, etc. Being useless will not be an issue
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 10,174

    The building is Mourihno-less.

    Killjoys.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 3,915
    Oort said:

    Barnesian said:

    TGOHF said:

    Boris has blown his chance. Javid or Raab ..

    He needs 106 Tory MPs to support him to get into the final two and then he's home and dry.

    The calculation of Tory MPs must surely be "Will he be an asset in the GE?" rather than "Will he make a good PM?". I think he has showed himself to be good at winning elections and a referendum.
    Winning two elections against Ken Livingstone. And the mayor doesn't have his finger on the nuclear button.
    His win against Livingston in 2008 in Labour London was sensational. Boris can gather Labour votes in a way no other contender can. Nuclear button is irrelevant to choice of next Tory leader.
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,142
    It looks like May has her Brexit wing on side, all talk of No Brexit has been dropped and she's going hard on it being Deal vs No Deal.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 3,028

    The building is Mourihno-less.

    Gary Megson is just making sure his phone isn't on silent.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 14,826
    DanSmith said:

    It looks like May has her Brexit wing on side, all talk of No Brexit has been dropped and she's going hard on it being Deal vs No Deal.

    Isn't that a contradiction?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,562
    Oh thank goodness. Some good news at last. Goodbye Mourinho. I'd like to say its been fun but it really hasn't.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Anyone know a good place online to buy Penne in bulk? Asking for a friend.

    It is rice that will be filling our my friend's Brexit pantry. The local Chinatown does it in bulk
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 14,826
    Oort said:

    As the cabinet prepares for a crashout Brexit, is there any word from Anna Soubry, Dominic Grieve, etc. on whether they have confidence in the prime minister?

    We know Jacob Rees-Mogg has. That's not exactly surprising, given that the cabinet is preparing to do exactly what he wants.

    The government say they will not grant any of their own Commons time to Jeremy Corbyn's motion of no confidence in Theresa May. They are almost certainly underestimating Corbyn again. I know Parliament can only be recalled on government request, but can the Speaker extend a session by a day off his own bat? If he does, whose is the extra time?

    "almost certainly"? Based on what? The Speaker cant just decide to grant extra time to the opposition. And never for another meaningless vote.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 50,001
    DanSmith said:

    It looks like May has her Brexit wing on side, all talk of No Brexit has been dropped and she's going hard on it being Deal vs No Deal.

    Even if all of Moggs horses, and all of Boris's men voted for the deal there still wouldn't be the numbers. BlackmailingTelling the remainers it's her deal or no deal is the only way to go numbers wise.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 16,943

    Rees Mogg has made a fool of himself in recent days and has no credibility. He seems more in the Boris camp anyway which seems appropriate. Gove has no credibility left with either Remainers or Leavers. Javid and Hunt are straw men - all mouth and nothing else. Rudd and Lidlington are just EU apparatchiks and would just revoke A50 so they have no chance with the membership. Davis is too old so that leaves either Raab or Mordaunt as the only two credible choices.

    The best bet of course would be someone outside Cabinet to come through untainted by the fiasco this Cabinet have made of Brexit but that seems highly unlikely based on history.

    "leaves...Mordaunt as the only credible choice[s]."

    bwahahahahahaha

    haha

    hahahahahahaha

    ha
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 50,001
    DavidL said:

    Oh thank goodness. Some good news at last. Goodbye Mourinho. I'd like to say its been fun but it really hasn't.

    He's lived in a hotel for the entirety of his tenure there. I mean it's a very nice hotel, but christ living in a hotel for ~ 3 years..
  • OortOort Posts: 96
    edited December 2018
    Barnesian said:

    Oort said:

    Barnesian said:

    TGOHF said:

    Boris has blown his chance. Javid or Raab ..

    He needs 106 Tory MPs to support him to get into the final two and then he's home and dry.

    The calculation of Tory MPs must surely be "Will he be an asset in the GE?" rather than "Will he make a good PM?". I think he has showed himself to be good at winning elections and a referendum.
    Winning two elections against Ken Livingstone. And the mayor doesn't have his finger on the nuclear button.
    His win against Livingston in 2008 in Labour London was sensational. Boris can gather Labour votes in a way no other contender can. Nuclear button is irrelevant to choice of next Tory leader.
    You were arguing that he would be good at winning a general election, and that he could win the Tory leadership for that reason. The nuclear button would be relevant then. "Would you want this man running the country at a time of crisis when a failure of judgement or rationality - caused for example by an irrational overendowment with ego and a contempt for people who disagree with him - could cause national ruination?"

    No way is he going to return to executive office.
  • I wonder if the ERG has harmed Boris a lot.

    They've shown poor judgement and truculence. MPs wanting a united party may be less than thrilled at backing an ERG-type, even if they're themselves sceptical of the EU.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 23,723
    I never saw Rees Mogg as a leader. Don't know anyone who did.

    The interesting question about Rees Mogg is whether he might blink. Accept that there is no better deal going to be offered -and that ERG should bank May's Deal and try to ensure maximum independence from the EU in the Trade Deal.

    "We have all witnessed the way the EU has interacted in its dealings with the Prime Minister. Above all, the process has confirmed that our continuing position within the EU is untenable and the first - indeed only - priority for the United Kingdom is to depart its clutches.

    My preferred route would have been to start preparing for a No Deal Brexit two years ago. Those who blocked such preparations must examine their conscience as to whether their actions have been in the best interests of the negotiations and of this country. But I look at our current preparedness and must conclude that today we are ill-equipped to launch ourselves into the world without guarantees that our economy will not suffer disproportionate turbulence.

    I have therefore informed the Prime Minister that when the Meaningful Vote is taken in January, I shall be voting to implement her deal. Having taken soundings, I can assure her that many of my fellow members of the ERG have reached the same conclusion. If her deal falls, the consequences that follow will be down to those seeking to undermine the initial Referendum result."

    It would be some climb down and might not seem at all likely. But then, No Deal Brexit didn't seem at all likely a couple of weeks back.....

    (If this speech would just stick in Rees Mogg's craw too much to enable him to talk, then I could yet imagine Boris delivering it....)
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,142
    Pulpstar said:

    DanSmith said:

    It looks like May has her Brexit wing on side, all talk of No Brexit has been dropped and she's going hard on it being Deal vs No Deal.

    Even if all of Moggs horses, and all of Boris's men voted for the deal there still wouldn't be the numbers. BlackmailingTelling the remainers it's her deal or no deal is the only way to go numbers wise.
    Indeed, looks like the DUP will be squared off as well



    If you get the ERG core onside and you get the DUP on board, it makes the numbers needed to switch from Labour much more realistic, especially if its a late vote presented in star binary terms.
  • DavidL said:

    I am really struggling to understand this liking for Raab. For me, he has made a series of ignorant statements, he had a brief time at DexEU where he seems to have a very limited understanding of what was going on, when he found out he resigned in a somewhat incoherent way and I have yet to see him make an intelligent contribution since.

    Is it just that he remains a blank canvas onto which people can paint their hopes or am I really missing something?

    No.

    He reminds me of those US Presidential candidates who are 'flavour of the fortnight' before drifting back into obscurity.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 11,866
    Interesting but important technical discussion of voting rights:

    https://labourlist.org/2018/12/our-2019-battle-stopping-tory-voter-suppression-plans/
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 13,169
    Are we expecting anyone to quit the Cabinet over "No Deal" planning today?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 3,915
    Pulpstar said:

    DanSmith said:

    It looks like May has her Brexit wing on side, all talk of No Brexit has been dropped and she's going hard on it being Deal vs No Deal.

    Even if all of Moggs horses, and all of Boris's men voted for the deal there still wouldn't be the numbers. BlackmailingTelling the remainers it's her deal or no deal is the only way to go numbers wise.
    Will she swerve at the last moment to avoid the crash out? That's the calculation many MPs will be making.

    Is she vindictive enough to actually crash out damaging her party, the economy and her reputation in retaliation for all the pain she has gone through - or does she, as a vicar's daughter, have a sense of duty?

    I say the latter - and I suspect that is the conclusion that Remainer MPs will come to. They will call her bluff. If she goes down this line, it will end with a last minute revocation of A50 supported by a majority of her cabinet (and Philip).

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 23,723
    Barnesian said:

    None of them give me much confidence, TBH. Just maybe Amber Rudd, who inherited May's cruel immigration policies and paid the price May should have.

    Yes. I can see her as acting PM to rescue the situation if Mrs May collapses but I can't see her being formally elected by the Tory membership.
    The membership won't touch with a barge-pole anyone proposing Norway+.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 3,682
    DavidL said:

    Oh thank goodness. Some good news at last. Goodbye Mourinho. I'd like to say its been fun but it really hasn't.

    In the summer I guess Man u will be going for Pochettino.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 14,826
    edited December 2018

    I never saw Rees Mogg as a leader. Don't know anyone who did.

    The interesting question about Rees Mogg is whether he might blink. Accept that there is no better deal going to be offered -and that ERG should bank May's Deal and try to ensure maximum independence from the EU in the Trade Deal.

    "We have all witnessed the way the EU has interacted in its dealings with the Prime Minister. Above all, the process has confirmed that our continuing position within the EU is untenable and the first - indeed only - priority for the United Kingdom is to depart its clutches.

    My preferred route would have been to start preparing for a No Deal Brexit two years ago. Those who blocked such preparations must examine their conscience as to whether their actions have been in the best interests of the negotiations and of this country. But I look at our current preparedness and must conclude that today we are ill-equipped to launch ourselves into the world without guarantees that our economy will not suffer disproportionate turbulence.

    I have therefore informed the Prime Minister that when the Meaningful Vote is taken in January, I shall be voting to implement her deal. Having taken soundings, I can assure her that many of my fellow members of the ERG have reached the same conclusion. If her deal falls, the consequences that follow will be down to those seeking to undermine the initial Referendum result."

    It would be some climb down and might not seem at all likely. But then, No Deal Brexit didn't seem at all likely a couple of weeks back.....

    (If this speech would just stick in Rees Mogg's craw too much to enable him to talk, then I could yet imagine Boris delivering it....)

    Boris's chance was immediately after his unexpected win in 2016 to say something equivalently statesmanlike about the need to proceed carefully toward Brexit and bring people together, starting with a soft exit to allow time for a sensible transition.

    That, instead, he has tried alternately to play to the gallery or exit the stage tells us all we need to know about him.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 14,826

    Barnesian said:

    None of them give me much confidence, TBH. Just maybe Amber Rudd, who inherited May's cruel immigration policies and paid the price May should have.

    Yes. I can see her as acting PM to rescue the situation if Mrs May collapses but I can't see her being formally elected by the Tory membership.
    The membership won't touch with a barge-pole anyone proposing Norway+.
    If the contest happens in the short or even medium term I very much doubt there will be time, or appetite (at the top) to let the decision go anywhere near the members.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 3,915
    Oort said:

    Barnesian said:

    Oort said:

    Barnesian said:

    TGOHF said:

    Boris has blown his chance. Javid or Raab ..

    He needs 106 Tory MPs to support him to get into the final two and then he's home and dry.

    The calculation of Tory MPs must surely be "Will he be an asset in the GE?" rather than "Will he make a good PM?". I think he has showed himself to be good at winning elections and a referendum.
    Winning two elections against Ken Livingstone. And the mayor doesn't have his finger on the nuclear button.
    His win against Livingston in 2008 in Labour London was sensational. Boris can gather Labour votes in a way no other contender can. Nuclear button is irrelevant to choice of next Tory leader.
    You were arguing that he would be good at winning a general election, and that he could win the Tory leadership for that reason. The nuclear button would be relevant then. "Would you want this man running the country at a time of crisis when a failure of judgement or rationality - caused for example by an irrational overendowment with ego and a contempt for people who disagree with him - could cause national ruination?"

    No way is he going to return to executive office.
    It sometimes happens. "Would you want this woman running the country at a time of crisis when a failure of judgement or rationality - caused for example by an irrational overendowment with ego and a contempt for people who disagree with her - could cause national ruination?"
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 20,901
    TGOHF said:

    Boris has blown his chance. Javid or Raab ..

    Heaven help us , dumb and dumber or back to Stan Laurel
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 50,001
    Barnesian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DanSmith said:

    It looks like May has her Brexit wing on side, all talk of No Brexit has been dropped and she's going hard on it being Deal vs No Deal.

    Even if all of Moggs horses, and all of Boris's men voted for the deal there still wouldn't be the numbers. BlackmailingTelling the remainers it's her deal or no deal is the only way to go numbers wise.
    Will she swerve at the last moment to avoid the crash out? That's the calculation many MPs will be making.

    Is she vindictive enough to actually crash out damaging her party, the economy and her reputation in retaliation for all the pain she has gone through - or does she, as a vicar's daughter, have a sense of duty?

    I say the latter - and I suspect that is the conclusion that Remainer MPs will come to. They will call her bluff. If she goes down this line, it will end with a last minute revocation of A50 supported by a majority of her cabinet (and Philip).

    Her sense of duty is to deliver Brexit. She sincerely believes her deal is the best Brexit possible, but she's definitely doing her damndest to deliver Brexit.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 1,318

    I never saw Rees Mogg as a leader. Don't know anyone who did.

    The interesting question about Rees Mogg is whether he might blink. Accept that there is no better deal going to be offered -and that ERG should bank May's Deal and try to ensure maximum independence from the EU in the Trade Deal.

    "We have all witnessed the way the EU has interacted in its dealings with the Prime Minister. Above all, the process has confirmed that our continuing position within the EU is untenable and the first - indeed only - priority for the United Kingdom is to depart its clutches.

    My preferred route would have been to start preparing for a No Deal Brexit two years ago. Those who blocked such preparations must examine their conscience as to whether their actions have been in the best interests of the negotiations and of this country. But I look at our current preparedness and must conclude that today we are ill-equipped to launch ourselves into the world without guarantees that our economy will not suffer disproportionate turbulence.

    I have therefore informed the Prime Minister that when the Meaningful Vote is taken in January, I shall be voting to implement her deal. Having taken soundings, I can assure her that many of my fellow members of the ERG have reached the same conclusion. If her deal falls, the consequences that follow will be down to those seeking to undermine the initial Referendum result."

    It would be some climb down and might not seem at all likely. But then, No Deal Brexit didn't seem at all likely a couple of weeks back.....

    (If this speech would just stick in Rees Mogg's craw too much to enable him to talk, then I could yet imagine Boris delivering it....)

    I think the announcement by the EU yesterday that they will do mini-deals to stop the major effects of a sudden no deal Brexit will be key to the Tory leavers. We get the detail on Weds but if the detail is sensible in the areas they proposed then I can see this route becoming the preferred position of the Tory leavers, which leaves May's deal dead. Which is why I am surprised the EU announced them when they did.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 14,826
    Pulpstar said:

    Barnesian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DanSmith said:

    It looks like May has her Brexit wing on side, all talk of No Brexit has been dropped and she's going hard on it being Deal vs No Deal.

    Even if all of Moggs horses, and all of Boris's men voted for the deal there still wouldn't be the numbers. BlackmailingTelling the remainers it's her deal or no deal is the only way to go numbers wise.
    Will she swerve at the last moment to avoid the crash out? That's the calculation many MPs will be making.

    Is she vindictive enough to actually crash out damaging her party, the economy and her reputation in retaliation for all the pain she has gone through - or does she, as a vicar's daughter, have a sense of duty?

    I say the latter - and I suspect that is the conclusion that Remainer MPs will come to. They will call her bluff. If she goes down this line, it will end with a last minute revocation of A50 supported by a majority of her cabinet (and Philip).

    Her sense of duty is to deliver Brexit. She sincerely believes her deal is the best Brexit possible, but she's definitely doing her damndest to deliver Brexit.
    As I was saying this morning, that's how she operates. And is why she does deserve a good share of the credit for Equal Marriage - having committed to deliver it, she got it done, and had no time for the huge amount of Tory opposition that came her way meantime.
  • XenonXenon Posts: 471
    If the government are talking about preparing for no deal then it means they can't have a referendum without no deal as an option now as they have legitimised it.

    Perhaps it's an attempt to get remainers on board with the deal.
  • Pulpstar said:

    DanSmith said:

    It looks like May has her Brexit wing on side, all talk of No Brexit has been dropped and she's going hard on it being Deal vs No Deal.

    Even if all of Moggs horses, and all of Boris's men voted for the deal there still wouldn't be the numbers. BlackmailingTelling the remainers it's her deal or no deal is the only way to go numbers wise.
    The government is clearly getting ready for a managed No Deal, as is the EU. May can try to get her deal through in January - and might even succeed if she can peel enough Lab MPs off under a realistic threat of No Deal - but I wonder whether even No 10 wants it now given the political cost that would come with it: the loss of the DUP and the anger of a large portion of the Party and a smaller, but meaningful, part of the electorate.
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634

    Interesting but important technical discussion of voting rights:

    https://labourlist.org/2018/12/our-2019-battle-stopping-tory-voter-suppression-plans/

    The headline assumes what it is trying to prove...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 14,826

    I never saw Rees Mogg as a leader. Don't know anyone who did.

    The interesting question about Rees Mogg is whether he might blink. Accept that there is no better deal going to be offered -and that ERG should bank May's Deal and try to ensure maximum independence from the EU in the Trade Deal.

    "We have all witnessed the way the EU has interacted in its dealings with the Prime Minister. Above all, the process has confirmed that our continuing position within the EU is untenable and the first - indeed only - priority for the United Kingdom is to depart its clutches.

    My preferred route would have been to start preparing for a No Deal Brexit two years ago. Those who blocked such preparations must examine their conscience as to whether their actions have been in the best interests of the negotiations and of this country. But I look at our current preparedness and must conclude that today we are ill-equipped to launch ourselves into the world without guarantees that our economy will not suffer disproportionate turbulence.

    I have therefore informed the Prime Minister that when the Meaningful Vote is taken in January, I shall be voting to implement her deal. Having taken soundings, I can assure her that many of my fellow members of the ERG have reached the same conclusion. If her deal falls, the consequences that follow will be down to those seeking to undermine the initial Referendum result."

    It would be some climb down and might not seem at all likely. But then, No Deal Brexit didn't seem at all likely a couple of weeks back.....

    (If this speech would just stick in Rees Mogg's craw too much to enable him to talk, then I could yet imagine Boris delivering it....)

    I think the announcement by the EU yesterday that they will do mini-deals to stop the major effects of a sudden no deal Brexit will be key to the Tory leavers. We get the detail on Weds but if the detail is sensible in the areas they proposed then I can see this route becoming the preferred position of the Tory leavers, which leaves May's deal dead. Which is why I am surprised the EU announced them when they did.
    As Ivan Rogers explains, the mini-deals are a safety mechanism to try and protect the EU in those areas where there is most risk to them, or mutually. They aren't going to happen in areas of specifically British concern.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 14,096
    edited December 2018
    Pulpstar said:

    Barnesian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DanSmith said:

    It looks like May has her Brexit wing on side, all talk of No Brexit has been dropped and she's going hard on it being Deal vs No Deal.

    Even if all of Moggs horses, and all of Boris's men voted for the deal there still wouldn't be the numbers. BlackmailingTelling the remainers it's her deal or no deal is the only way to go numbers wise.
    Will she swerve at the last moment to avoid the crash out? That's the calculation many MPs will be making.

    Is she vindictive enough to actually crash out damaging her party, the economy and her reputation in retaliation for all the pain she has gone through - or does she, as a vicar's daughter, have a sense of duty?

    I say the latter - and I suspect that is the conclusion that Remainer MPs will come to. They will call her bluff. If she goes down this line, it will end with a last minute revocation of A50 supported by a majority of her cabinet (and Philip).

    Her sense of duty is to deliver Brexit. She sincerely believes her deal is the best Brexit possible, but she's definitely doing her damndest to deliver Brexit.
    Agree; as I've said before she's the only child of two apparently strong people. "Duty' will be a strong element in her psychological make-up.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 2,735

    Interesting but important technical discussion of voting rights:

    https://labourlist.org/2018/12/our-2019-battle-stopping-tory-voter-suppression-plans/

    Tweeted it!

    Liked your Brexit election article as well, seemed like a good plan.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 14,826
    Xenon said:

    If the government are talking about preparing for no deal then it means they can't have a referendum without no deal as an option now as they have legitimised it.

    Perhaps it's an attempt to get remainers on board with the deal.

    No, and possibly.
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634
    Donny43 said:

    Interesting but important technical discussion of voting rights:

    https://labourlist.org/2018/12/our-2019-battle-stopping-tory-voter-suppression-plans/

    The headline assumes what it is trying to prove...
    I mean, seriously? You don't have photo ID? Do you (a) get photo ID or, (b) start a court case?
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 4,679

    Interesting but important technical discussion of voting rights:

    https://labourlist.org/2018/12/our-2019-battle-stopping-tory-voter-suppression-plans/

    I still don't get the problem with asking people to provide some form of ID to confirm their right to vote.

    We ask a lot more to get a library card

    It is not at all unreasonable to require people to demonstrate their right to vote. It works in Northern Ireland - with a free voting ID card which works if people don't have access to any other acceptable form of ID.

    There is no evidence at all of a voter suppression plan. That is just scaremongering.

    I would personally like to see a roll back of permanent postal voting and the clear fraud potential that exists with the postal vote system as currently set up.

    But I think the principle that you have to prove who you are so that you can vote is a perfectly legitimate one.
  • OortOort Posts: 96
    IanB2 said:

    Oort said:

    As the cabinet prepares for a crashout Brexit, is there any word from Anna Soubry, Dominic Grieve, etc. on whether they have confidence in the prime minister?

    We know Jacob Rees-Mogg has. That's not exactly surprising, given that the cabinet is preparing to do exactly what he wants.

    The government say they will not grant any of their own Commons time to Jeremy Corbyn's motion of no confidence in Theresa May. They are almost certainly underestimating Corbyn again. I know Parliament can only be recalled on government request, but can the Speaker extend a session by a day off his own bat? If he does, whose is the extra time?

    "almost certainly"? Based on what? The Speaker cant just decide to grant extra time to the opposition. And never for another meaningless vote.
    Denying the Commons a vote of confidence in her is a bad look. Who says it would be a stunt? What was her recent trip to the continent? A stunt and a failed one. It seems rather that she is scared she would lose. Of those who aren't on the payroll or avowed Dealers the MPs who are coming on the media to express confidence in her prime ministership seem to be the ERG plus DUP.

    Are you sure the Speaker can't extend a session without government say-so? Or could he not grant an emergency debate under SO24?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 3,915
    Pulpstar said:

    Barnesian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DanSmith said:

    It looks like May has her Brexit wing on side, all talk of No Brexit has been dropped and she's going hard on it being Deal vs No Deal.

    Even if all of Moggs horses, and all of Boris's men voted for the deal there still wouldn't be the numbers. BlackmailingTelling the remainers it's her deal or no deal is the only way to go numbers wise.
    Will she swerve at the last moment to avoid the crash out? That's the calculation many MPs will be making.

    Is she vindictive enough to actually crash out damaging her party, the economy and her reputation in retaliation for all the pain she has gone through - or does she, as a vicar's daughter, have a sense of duty?

    I say the latter - and I suspect that is the conclusion that Remainer MPs will come to. They will call her bluff. If she goes down this line, it will end with a last minute revocation of A50 supported by a majority of her cabinet (and Philip).

    Her sense of duty is to deliver Brexit. She sincerely believes her deal is the best Brexit possible, but she's definitely doing her damndest to deliver Brexit.
    She sincerely believes her deal is the best Brexit possible. Agreed. But I don't think it includes crashing out with no transition period. She's knows the consequences. It would be vindictive not dutiful and would betray many who voted Leave. She knows that.

    To win this game of bluff, she needs to do the equivalent of throwing the steering wheel out of the window.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 23,723

    I think the announcement by the EU yesterday that they will do mini-deals to stop the major effects of a sudden no deal Brexit will be key to the Tory leavers. We get the detail on Weds but if the detail is sensible in the areas they proposed then I can see this route becoming the preferred position of the Tory leavers, which leaves May's deal dead. Which is why I am surprised the EU announced them when they did.

    I don't think there is any doubt that cooler heads in EU capitals are aghast at the idea we just tumble out the EU on 29th March. Too many are looking at economies descending into recession if we do.

    Remember - the UK is one eighth of all they export. To risk that - for a backstop the EU says they don't want, won't use? GCHQ will be having fun intercepting ever more febrile conversations.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 16,943

    Interesting but important technical discussion of voting rights:

    https://labourlist.org/2018/12/our-2019-battle-stopping-tory-voter-suppression-plans/

    I still don't get the problem with asking people to provide some form of ID to confirm their right to vote.

    We ask a lot more to get a library card

    It is not at all unreasonable to require people to demonstrate their right to vote. It works in Northern Ireland - with a free voting ID card which works if people don't have access to any other acceptable form of ID.

    There is no evidence at all of a voter suppression plan. That is just scaremongering.

    I would personally like to see a roll back of permanent postal voting and the clear fraud potential that exists with the postal vote system as currently set up.

    But I think the principle that you have to prove who you are so that you can vote is a perfectly legitimate one.
    At the last GE I turned up to vote to be told that I had already voted.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 22,831
    Donny43 said:

    Interesting but important technical discussion of voting rights:

    https://labourlist.org/2018/12/our-2019-battle-stopping-tory-voter-suppression-plans/

    The headline assumes what it is trying to prove...
    Regardless of what the intention of the move is, requiring photo id is a really bad idea IMO.

    Information on the results of the trials:
    https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/find-information-by-subject/electoral-fraud/voter-identification-pilot-schemes
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 50,001
    edited December 2018
    Never mind the ERG, what on earth is May telling the DUP to get them onboard :o ?!
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 10,174
    Barnesian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Barnesian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DanSmith said:

    It looks like May has her Brexit wing on side, all talk of No Brexit has been dropped and she's going hard on it being Deal vs No Deal.

    Even if all of Moggs horses, and all of Boris's men voted for the deal there still wouldn't be the numbers. BlackmailingTelling the remainers it's her deal or no deal is the only way to go numbers wise.
    Will she swerve at the last moment to avoid the crash out? That's the calculation many MPs will be making.

    Is she vindictive enough to actually crash out damaging her party, the economy and her reputation in retaliation for all the pain she has gone through - or does she, as a vicar's daughter, have a sense of duty?

    I say the latter - and I suspect that is the conclusion that Remainer MPs will come to. They will call her bluff. If she goes down this line, it will end with a last minute revocation of A50 supported by a majority of her cabinet (and Philip).

    Her sense of duty is to deliver Brexit. She sincerely believes her deal is the best Brexit possible, but she's definitely doing her damndest to deliver Brexit.
    She sincerely believes her deal is the best Brexit possible. Agreed. But I don't think it includes crashing out with no transition period. She's knows the consequences. It would be vindictive not dutiful and would betray many who voted Leave. She knows that.

    To win this game of bluff, she needs to do the equivalent of throwing the steering wheel out of the window.
    One thing that occurred to me when Carney made his statement on scenarios was, why don't the BoE hike up interest rates to 1.5% to show people that they are serious about keeping a lid on inflation in the event of no deal and the pound crashing.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 1,318
    edited December 2018
    IanB2 said:

    I never saw Rees Mogg as a leader. Don't know anyone who did.

    The interesting question about Rees Mogg is whether he might blink. Accept that there is no better deal going to be offered -and that ERG should bank May's Deal and try to ensure maximum independence from the EU in the Trade Deal.

    "We have all witnessed the way the EU has interacted in its dealings with the Prime Minister. Above all, the process has confirmed that our continuing position within the EU is untenable and the first - indeed only - priority for the United Kingdom is to depart its clutches.

    My preferred route would have been to start preparing for a No Deal Brexit two years ago. Those who blocked such preparations must examine their conscience as to whether their actions have been in the best interests of the negotiations and of this country. But I look at our current preparedness and must conclude that today we are ill-equipped to launch ourselves into the world without guarantees that our economy will not suffer disproportionate turbulence.

    I have therefore informed the Prime Minister that when the Meaningful Vote is taken in January, I shall be voting to implement her deal. Having taken soundings, I can assure her that many of my fellow members of the ERG have reached the same conclusion. If her deal falls, the consequences that follow will be down to those seeking to undermine the initial Referendum result."

    It would be some climb down and might not seem at all likely. But then, No Deal Brexit didn't seem at all likely a couple of weeks back.....

    (If this speech would just stick in Rees Mogg's craw too much to enable him to talk, then I could yet imagine Boris delivering it....)

    I think the announcement by the EU yesterday that they will do mini-deals to stop the major effects of a sudden no deal Brexit will be key to the Tory leavers. We get the detail on Weds but if the detail is sensible in the areas they proposed then I can see this route becoming the preferred position of the Tory leavers, which leaves May's deal dead. Which is why I am surprised the EU announced them when they did.
    As Ivan Rogers explains, the mini-deals are a safety mechanism to try and protect the EU in those areas where there is most risk to them, or mutually. They aren't going to happen in areas of specifically British concern.
    I agree but they certainly reduce the pain of no deal. No lorry parks in Dover, no problems with derivative contracts, no problems with food supply, no problems with drugs, planes flying, etc.
    The EU destroyed all the arguments of remainers yesterday. Why? is a question I would like to know the answer to.
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634
    Oort said:

    IanB2 said:

    Oort said:

    As the cabinet prepares for a crashout Brexit, is there any word from Anna Soubry, Dominic Grieve, etc. on whether they have confidence in the prime minister?

    We know Jacob Rees-Mogg has. That's not exactly surprising, given that the cabinet is preparing to do exactly what he wants.

    The government say they will not grant any of their own Commons time to Jeremy Corbyn's motion of no confidence in Theresa May. They are almost certainly underestimating Corbyn again. I know Parliament can only be recalled on government request, but can the Speaker extend a session by a day off his own bat? If he does, whose is the extra time?

    "almost certainly"? Based on what? The Speaker cant just decide to grant extra time to the opposition. And never for another meaningless vote.
    Denying the Commons a vote of confidence in her is a bad look. Who says it would be a stunt? What was her recent trip to the continent? A stunt and a failed one. It seems rather that she is scared she would lose. Of those who aren't on the payroll or avowed Dealers the MPs who are coming on the media to express confidence in her prime ministership seem to be the ERG plus DUP.

    Are you sure the Speaker can't extend a session without government say-so? Or could he not grant an emergency debate under SO24?
    Recall of the Commons is only at government request: https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/occasions/recallparliament/

    Changing the timetable for this week including the adjournment on Thursday would surely need a business motion?
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 2,735
    Donny43 said:

    Donny43 said:

    Interesting but important technical discussion of voting rights:

    https://labourlist.org/2018/12/our-2019-battle-stopping-tory-voter-suppression-plans/

    The headline assumes what it is trying to prove...
    I mean, seriously? You don't have photo ID? Do you (a) get photo ID or, (b) start a court case?
    If you think the court case is about one man not being able to vote I think you might have spectacularly missed the point...
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 19,434

    IanB2 said:

    I never saw Rees Mogg as a leader. Don't know anyone who did.

    The interesting question about Rees Mogg is whether he might blink. Accept that there is no better deal going to be offered -and that ERG should bank May's Deal and try to ensure maximum independence from the EU in the Trade Deal.

    "We have all witnessed the way the EU has interacted in its dealings with the Prime Minister. Above all, the process has confirmed that our continuing position within the EU is untenable and the first - indeed only - priority for the United Kingdom is to depart its clutches.

    My preferred route would have been to start preparing for a No Deal Brexit two years ago. Those who blocked such preparations must examine their conscience as to whether their actions have been in the best interests of the negotiations and of this country. But I look at our current preparedness and must conclude that today we are ill-equipped to launch ourselves into the world without guarantees that our economy will not suffer disproportionate turbulence.

    I have therefore informed the Prime Minister that when the Meaningful Vote is taken in January, I shall be voting to implement her deal. Having taken soundings, I can assure her that many of my fellow members of the ERG have reached the same conclusion. If her deal falls, the consequences that follow will be down to those seeking to undermine the initial Referendum result."

    It would be some climb down and might not seem at all likely. But then, No Deal Brexit didn't seem at all likely a couple of weeks back.....

    (If this speech would just stick in Rees Mogg's craw too much to enable him to talk, then I could yet imagine Boris delivering it....)

    I think the announcement by the EU yesterday that they will do mini-deals to stop the major effects of a sudden no deal Brexit will be key to the Tory leavers. We get the detail on Weds but if the detail is sensible in the areas they proposed then I can see this route becoming the preferred position of the Tory leavers, which leaves May's deal dead. Which is why I am surprised the EU announced them when they did.
    As Ivan Rogers explains, the mini-deals are a safety mechanism to try and protect the EU in those areas where there is most risk to them, or mutually. They aren't going to happen in areas of specifically British concern.
    The EU destroyed all the arguments of remainers yesterday. Why? is a question I would like to know the answer to.
    German car makers have been on the phone :D

  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634

    Donny43 said:

    Interesting but important technical discussion of voting rights:

    https://labourlist.org/2018/12/our-2019-battle-stopping-tory-voter-suppression-plans/

    The headline assumes what it is trying to prove...
    Regardless of what the intention of the move is, requiring photo id is a really bad idea IMO.

    Information on the results of the trials:
    https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/find-information-by-subject/electoral-fraud/voter-identification-pilot-schemes
    An interesting page - the Electoral Commission explicitly called for these trials that Labour is condemning for transparently partisan reasons.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 2,735
    TOPPING said:

    Interesting but important technical discussion of voting rights:

    https://labourlist.org/2018/12/our-2019-battle-stopping-tory-voter-suppression-plans/

    I still don't get the problem with asking people to provide some form of ID to confirm their right to vote.

    We ask a lot more to get a library card

    It is not at all unreasonable to require people to demonstrate their right to vote. It works in Northern Ireland - with a free voting ID card which works if people don't have access to any other acceptable form of ID.

    There is no evidence at all of a voter suppression plan. That is just scaremongering.

    I would personally like to see a roll back of permanent postal voting and the clear fraud potential that exists with the postal vote system as currently set up.

    But I think the principle that you have to prove who you are so that you can vote is a perfectly legitimate one.
    At the last GE I turned up to vote to be told that I had already voted.
    The memory is the first to go...
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 19,434

    Donny43 said:

    Donny43 said:

    Interesting but important technical discussion of voting rights:

    https://labourlist.org/2018/12/our-2019-battle-stopping-tory-voter-suppression-plans/

    The headline assumes what it is trying to prove...
    I mean, seriously? You don't have photo ID? Do you (a) get photo ID or, (b) start a court case?
    If you think the court case is about one man not being able to vote I think you might have spectacularly missed the point...
    Bizarre that the party of ID cards is so against voter ID at elections..
  • XenonXenon Posts: 471
    edited December 2018

    IanB2 said:

    I never saw Rees Mogg as a leader. Don't know anyone who did.

    The interesting question about Rees Mogg is whether he might blink. Accept that there is no better deal going to be offered -and that ERG should bank May's Deal and try to ensure maximum independence from the EU in the Trade Deal.

    My preferred route would have been to start preparing for a No Deal Brexit two years ago. Those who blocked such preparations must examine their conscience as to whether their actions have been in the best interests of the negotiations and of this country. But I look at our current preparedness and must conclude that today we are ill-equipped to launch ourselves into the world without guarantees that our economy will not suffer disproportionate turbulence.

    I have therefore informed the Prime Minister that when the Meaningful Vote is taken in January, I shall be voting to implement her deal. Having taken soundings, I can assure her that many of my fellow members of the ERG have reached the same conclusion. If her deal falls, the consequences that follow will be down to those seeking to undermine the initial Referendum result."

    It would be some climb down and might not seem at all likely. But then, No Deal Brexit didn't seem at all likely a couple of weeks back.....

    (If this speech would just stick in Rees Mogg's craw too much to enable him to talk, then I could yet imagine Boris delivering it....)

    I think the announcement by the EU yesterday that they will do mini-deals to stop the major effects of a sudden no deal Brexit will be key to the Tory leavers. We get the detail on Weds but if the detail is sensible in the areas they proposed then I can see this route becoming the preferred position of the Tory leavers, which leaves May's deal dead. Which is why I am surprised the EU announced them when they did.
    As Ivan Rogers explains, the mini-deals are a safety mechanism to try and protect the EU in those areas where there is most risk to them, or mutually. They aren't going to happen in areas of specifically British concern.
    I agree but they certainly reduce the pain of no deal. No lorry parks in Dover, no problems with derivative contracts, no problems with food supply, no problems with drugs, planes flying, etc.
    The EU destroyed all the arguments of remainers yesterday. Why? is a question I would like to know the answer to.
    What did the EU do yesterday?

    Edit. Never mind I see the EU agreed to make no deal preparations with the UK.

    Kind of blows the fallacy that there is no such thing as preparing for no deal out the water that remainers have been peddling on here.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 19,434

    Donny43 said:

    Interesting but important technical discussion of voting rights:

    https://labourlist.org/2018/12/our-2019-battle-stopping-tory-voter-suppression-plans/

    The headline assumes what it is trying to prove...
    Regardless of what the intention of the move is, requiring photo id is a really bad idea IMO.

    Information on the results of the trials:
    https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/find-information-by-subject/electoral-fraud/voter-identification-pilot-schemes
    "Overall, the voter identification requirements trialled in May 2018 worked well. Nearly everyone in the five pilot scheme areas who went to vote in their polling station was able to show identification without difficulty. The number of people who did not vote because they couldn’t show identification was very small."

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 50,001
    TOPPING said:

    Interesting but important technical discussion of voting rights:

    https://labourlist.org/2018/12/our-2019-battle-stopping-tory-voter-suppression-plans/

    I still don't get the problem with asking people to provide some form of ID to confirm their right to vote.

    We ask a lot more to get a library card

    It is not at all unreasonable to require people to demonstrate their right to vote. It works in Northern Ireland - with a free voting ID card which works if people don't have access to any other acceptable form of ID.

    There is no evidence at all of a voter suppression plan. That is just scaremongering.

    I would personally like to see a roll back of permanent postal voting and the clear fraud potential that exists with the postal vote system as currently set up.

    But I think the principle that you have to prove who you are so that you can vote is a perfectly legitimate one.
    At the last GE I turned up to vote to be told that I had already voted.
    I don't like the concept of needing to show ID to vote, feels very unBritish to me - however there is clearly personation going on (As evidenced by this comment) so perhaps it is sadly needed :(
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 4,679
    TOPPING said:

    Interesting but important technical discussion of voting rights:

    https://labourlist.org/2018/12/our-2019-battle-stopping-tory-voter-suppression-plans/

    I still don't get the problem with asking people to provide some form of ID to confirm their right to vote.

    We ask a lot more to get a library card

    It is not at all unreasonable to require people to demonstrate their right to vote. It works in Northern Ireland - with a free voting ID card which works if people don't have access to any other acceptable form of ID.

    There is no evidence at all of a voter suppression plan. That is just scaremongering.

    I would personally like to see a roll back of permanent postal voting and the clear fraud potential that exists with the postal vote system as currently set up.

    But I think the principle that you have to prove who you are so that you can vote is a perfectly legitimate one.
    At the last GE I turned up to vote to be told that I had already voted.
    How was that resolved for you? I am guessing it was an error on the part of whoever was marking up the register but I may be wrong
  • TOPPING said:

    Rees Mogg has made a fool of himself in recent days and has no credibility. He seems more in the Boris camp anyway which seems appropriate. Gove has no credibility left with either Remainers or Leavers. Javid and Hunt are straw men - all mouth and nothing else. Rudd and Lidlington are just EU apparatchiks and would just revoke A50 so they have no chance with the membership. Davis is too old so that leaves either Raab or Mordaunt as the only two credible choices.

    The best bet of course would be someone outside Cabinet to come through untainted by the fiasco this Cabinet have made of Brexit but that seems highly unlikely based on history.

    "leaves...Mordaunt as the only credible choice[s]."

    bwahahahahahaha

    haha

    hahahahahahaha

    ha
    I think Mourdant has burned her bridges with a lot of the ERG / membership types by not resigning when others did.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 22,831
    Donny43 said:

    Donny43 said:

    Interesting but important technical discussion of voting rights:

    https://labourlist.org/2018/12/our-2019-battle-stopping-tory-voter-suppression-plans/

    The headline assumes what it is trying to prove...
    Regardless of what the intention of the move is, requiring photo id is a really bad idea IMO.

    Information on the results of the trials:
    https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/find-information-by-subject/electoral-fraud/voter-identification-pilot-schemes
    An interesting page - the Electoral Commission explicitly called for these trials that Labour is condemning for transparently partisan reasons.
    Indeed - but I'm still really nervous about the move. I don't like it, I don't think it's been well thought through, and think it may well ave undesirable consequences.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 50,001

    Donny43 said:

    Donny43 said:

    Interesting but important technical discussion of voting rights:

    https://labourlist.org/2018/12/our-2019-battle-stopping-tory-voter-suppression-plans/

    The headline assumes what it is trying to prove...
    Regardless of what the intention of the move is, requiring photo id is a really bad idea IMO.

    Information on the results of the trials:
    https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/find-information-by-subject/electoral-fraud/voter-identification-pilot-schemes
    An interesting page - the Electoral Commission explicitly called for these trials that Labour is condemning for transparently partisan reasons.
    Indeed - but I'm still really nervous about the move. I don't like it, I don't think it's been well thought through, and think it may well ave undesirable consequences.
    I know it feels all very undesirable, but what to do about the personation that @Topping suffered ?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 22,831
    TGOHF said:

    Donny43 said:

    Interesting but important technical discussion of voting rights:

    https://labourlist.org/2018/12/our-2019-battle-stopping-tory-voter-suppression-plans/

    The headline assumes what it is trying to prove...
    Regardless of what the intention of the move is, requiring photo id is a really bad idea IMO.

    Information on the results of the trials:
    https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/find-information-by-subject/electoral-fraud/voter-identification-pilot-schemes
    "Overall, the voter identification requirements trialled in May 2018 worked well. Nearly everyone in the five pilot scheme areas who went to vote in their polling station was able to show identification without difficulty. The number of people who did not vote because they couldn’t show identification was very small."
    Very small, but non-zero.

    I bet it's larger than the amount of personation that's going on in the same areas ...
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 2,735
    TGOHF said:

    Donny43 said:

    Donny43 said:

    Interesting but important technical discussion of voting rights:

    https://labourlist.org/2018/12/our-2019-battle-stopping-tory-voter-suppression-plans/

    The headline assumes what it is trying to prove...
    I mean, seriously? You don't have photo ID? Do you (a) get photo ID or, (b) start a court case?
    If you think the court case is about one man not being able to vote I think you might have spectacularly missed the point...
    Bizarre that the party of ID cards is so against voter ID at elections..
    Corbyn has a long track record of trying to enforce ID cards of course...

    Although wouldn't your logic say that it is bizarre what the government is currently doing? one without the other..

    Or maybe clever like the republican party if your a little cynical.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 1,318
    Xenon said:

    IanB2 said:

    I never saw Rees Mogg as a leader. Don't know anyone who did.

    The interesting question about Rees Mogg is whether he might blink. Accept that there is no better deal going to be offered -and that ERG should bank May's Deal and try to ensure maximum independence from the EU in the Trade Deal.

    M
    It would be some climb down and might not seem at all likely. But then, No Deal Brexit didn't seem at all likely a couple of weeks back.....

    (If this speech would just stick in Rees Mogg's craw too much to enable him to talk, then I could yet imagine Boris delivering it....)

    I think the announcement by the EU yesterday that they will do mini-deals to stop the major effects of a sudden no deal Brexit will be key to the Tory leavers. We get the detail on Weds but if the detail is sensible in the areas they proposed then I can see this route becoming the preferred position of the Tory leavers, which leaves May's deal dead. Which is why I am surprised the EU announced them when they did.
    As Ivan Rogers explains, the mini-deals are a safety mechanism to try and protect the EU in those areas where there is most risk to them, or mutually. They aren't going to happen in areas of specifically British concern.
    I agree but they certainly reduce the pain of no deal. No lorry parks in Dover, no problems with derivative contracts, no problems with food supply, no problems with drugs, planes flying, etc.
    The EU destroyed all the arguments of remainers yesterday. Why? is a question I would like to know the answer to.
    What did the EU do yesterday?

    Edit. Never mind I see the EU agreed to make no deal preparations with the UK.

    Kind of blows the fallacy that there is no such thing as preparing for no deal out the water that remainers have been peddling on here.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/17/brussels-plans-for-status-quo-in-few-key-sectors-in-case-of-no-deal-brexit

    They announced the sectors yesterday, details coming tomorrow.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 22,831
    Pulpstar said:

    Donny43 said:

    Donny43 said:

    Interesting but important technical discussion of voting rights:

    https://labourlist.org/2018/12/our-2019-battle-stopping-tory-voter-suppression-plans/

    The headline assumes what it is trying to prove...
    Regardless of what the intention of the move is, requiring photo id is a really bad idea IMO.

    Information on the results of the trials:
    https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/find-information-by-subject/electoral-fraud/voter-identification-pilot-schemes
    An interesting page - the Electoral Commission explicitly called for these trials that Labour is condemning for transparently partisan reasons.
    Indeed - but I'm still really nervous about the move. I don't like it, I don't think it's been well thought through, and think it may well ave undesirable consequences.
    I know it feels all very undesirable, but what to do about the personation that @Topping suffered ?
    It'd be interesting to know the full story from his perspective, if he reported it, and if anything came of it.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 19,434

    TGOHF said:

    Donny43 said:

    Donny43 said:

    Interesting but important technical discussion of voting rights:

    https://labourlist.org/2018/12/our-2019-battle-stopping-tory-voter-suppression-plans/

    The headline assumes what it is trying to prove...
    I mean, seriously? You don't have photo ID? Do you (a) get photo ID or, (b) start a court case?
    If you think the court case is about one man not being able to vote I think you might have spectacularly missed the point...
    Bizarre that the party of ID cards is so against voter ID at elections..
    Corbyn has a long track record of trying to enforce ID cards of course...
    One man isn't the party of course. As we saw yesterday.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 23,723
    Pulpstar said:

    Never mind the ERG, what on earth is May telling the DUP to get them onboard :o ?!

    She has their unsubmitted travel receipts?
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 2,735
    TGOHF said:

    Donny43 said:

    Interesting but important technical discussion of voting rights:

    https://labourlist.org/2018/12/our-2019-battle-stopping-tory-voter-suppression-plans/

    The headline assumes what it is trying to prove...
    Regardless of what the intention of the move is, requiring photo id is a really bad idea IMO.

    Information on the results of the trials:
    https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/find-information-by-subject/electoral-fraud/voter-identification-pilot-schemes
    "Overall, the voter identification requirements trialled in May 2018 worked well. Nearly everyone in the five pilot scheme areas who went to vote in their polling station was able to show identification without difficulty. The number of people who did not vote because they couldn’t show identification was very small."

    I imagine it is mainly undesirable groups who will have their democratic rights blocked anyway, no need to kick up too much of a fuss about a small minority.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 4,679

    Donny43 said:

    Donny43 said:

    Interesting but important technical discussion of voting rights:

    https://labourlist.org/2018/12/our-2019-battle-stopping-tory-voter-suppression-plans/

    The headline assumes what it is trying to prove...
    Regardless of what the intention of the move is, requiring photo id is a really bad idea IMO.

    Information on the results of the trials:
    https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/find-information-by-subject/electoral-fraud/voter-identification-pilot-schemes
    An interesting page - the Electoral Commission explicitly called for these trials that Labour is condemning for transparently partisan reasons.
    Indeed - but I'm still really nervous about the move. I don't like it, I don't think it's been well thought through, and think it may well ave undesirable consequences.
    There is a debate to be had over which forms of ID are accepted. But, as a principle, having voting restricted to those people on the electoral register is a legitimate one. And that requires some proof that the person voting is who they say they are when they arrive at the polling station.

    Whether that is a polling card, some additional paperwork with your address or some form of card like in NI is what these trials are set up to help determine.
  • The bank underground blog, https://bankunderground.co.uk, written by staff at the Bank of England, have released their Christmas Quiz.

    https://www.quiz-maker.com/QB7AJZV

    I only manged 4/10.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 50,001

    Pulpstar said:

    Never mind the ERG, what on earth is May telling the DUP to get them onboard :o ?!

    She has their unsubmitted travel receipts?
    Seeing as we the EU has told us they won't negotiate further it must be something wrt domestic law...
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 19,434

    TGOHF said:

    Donny43 said:

    Interesting but important technical discussion of voting rights:

    https://labourlist.org/2018/12/our-2019-battle-stopping-tory-voter-suppression-plans/

    The headline assumes what it is trying to prove...
    Regardless of what the intention of the move is, requiring photo id is a really bad idea IMO.

    Information on the results of the trials:
    https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/find-information-by-subject/electoral-fraud/voter-identification-pilot-schemes
    "Overall, the voter identification requirements trialled in May 2018 worked well. Nearly everyone in the five pilot scheme areas who went to vote in their polling station was able to show identification without difficulty. The number of people who did not vote because they couldn’t show identification was very small."

    I imagine it is mainly undesirable groups who will have their democratic rights blocked anyway, no need to kick up too much of a fuss about a small minority.
    What I don't understand is why don't these voters hand over their postal ballots as their community leaders have asked them to?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 16,943

    TOPPING said:

    Interesting but important technical discussion of voting rights:

    https://labourlist.org/2018/12/our-2019-battle-stopping-tory-voter-suppression-plans/

    I still don't get the problem with asking people to provide some form of ID to confirm their right to vote.

    We ask a lot more to get a library card

    It is not at all unreasonable to require people to demonstrate their right to vote. It works in Northern Ireland - with a free voting ID card which works if people don't have access to any other acceptable form of ID.

    There is no evidence at all of a voter suppression plan. That is just scaremongering.

    I would personally like to see a roll back of permanent postal voting and the clear fraud potential that exists with the postal vote system as currently set up.

    But I think the principle that you have to prove who you are so that you can vote is a perfectly legitimate one.
    At the last GE I turned up to vote to be told that I had already voted.
    The memory is the first to go...
    At the last GE I turned up to vote to be be told that I had already voted.
This discussion has been closed.