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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The detail of the YouGov “LAB would slip to 3rd place behind t

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited December 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The detail of the YouGov “LAB would slip to 3rd place behind the LDs ” poll

YouGov/People’s Vote

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Comments

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,562
    Imagine.
    Was there not a song about that?
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited December 2018
    First like the UK over the cliff edge with Theresa May at the wheel

    image
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 3,688
    DavidL said:

    Imagine.
    Was there not a song about that?

    Imagine all the people
    Brexiting in peace.
    You might say I'm a dreamer
    And be absolutely right.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited December 2018
    I just want to reiterate:

    THERESA MAY IS ACTIVELY PIVOTING TOWARDS NO DEAL.

    The Prime Minister has lost her fucking mind. This is going to be such delicious chaos. I can't wait.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 50,001
    Jeremy Corbyn, Hard Brexit's midwife D:
  • RobDRobD Posts: 36,002

    I just want to reiterate:

    THERESA MAY IS ACTIVELY PIVOTING TOWARDS NO DEAL.

    The Prime Minister has lost her fucking mind.

    Toward no deal being the only viable alternative, increasing the likelihood of hers being signed?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,562
    Imagine there’s no Brexit,
    I wonder if you can
    Nothing to debate on PB
    Just a brotherhood of man

    Imagine all the remainers
    As smug as smug as smug can be
    The riff raff defeated,
    their votes just history

    You may say that I’m a dreamer
    But I’m not the only one
    Why don’t you come and join us
    So we can get to a majority
    (Not that that matters of course, we get to win anyway)

    Or something like that.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited December 2018
    RobD said:

    I just want to reiterate:

    THERESA MAY IS ACTIVELY PIVOTING TOWARDS NO DEAL.

    The Prime Minister has lost her fucking mind.

    Toward no deal being the only viable alternative, increasing the likelihood of hers being signed?
    I think it clear that Parliament will, under no circumstances, give in to such pathetic blackmail.

    If we go over the cliff edge, it is because Mrs May chooses to let us. And May is basically giving Corbyn his dream outcome...

    Go ahead, Theresa. DO IT, I double dare you.
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 628
    RobD said:

    I just want to reiterate:

    THERESA MAY IS ACTIVELY PIVOTING TOWARDS NO DEAL.

    The Prime Minister has lost her fucking mind.

    Toward no deal being the only viable alternative, increasing the likelihood of hers being signed?
    The Eu are barely going to move and Parliament isn’t going to move, no deal becomes the default option unless either or both give a little.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 1,917

    I just want to reiterate:

    THERESA MAY IS ACTIVELY PIVOTING TOWARDS NO DEAL.

    The Prime Minister has lost her fucking mind. This is going to be such delicious chaos. I can't wait.

    It's to promote support for The Deal. No Deal will never happen.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 50,001
    Ed Miliband, David Cameron, Tony Bliar, Gordion knot Brown, Margaret Thatcher, Ted Heath, Howard Wilson - I think they'd all bottle leaving the EU if they were in May's likely shoes after the MV fails.
    Really not so sure about May ! She might just be mad enough.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 73,102
    edited December 2018
    Hard Brexit is awesome.

    It'll teach the plebs not to ignore their betters.

    David Cameron and George Osborne warned them that No Deal was a risk.

    Leavers are so going to own this, especially given the multitude of times they said No Deal was just Project Fear.

    All I can say is

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 3,688

    I just want to reiterate:

    THERESA MAY IS ACTIVELY PIVOTING TOWARDS NO DEAL.

    The Prime Minister has lost her fucking mind. This is going to be such delicious chaos. I can't wait.

    There is an entrancing fascination I admit. In the same way the Saw franchise did so well.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    I just want to reiterate:

    THERESA MAY IS ACTIVELY PIVOTING TOWARDS NO DEAL.

    The Prime Minister has lost her fucking mind. This is going to be such delicious chaos. I can't wait.

    It's to promote support for The Deal. No Deal will never happen.
    I wonder how many billions of pounds of taxpayers' money will be wasted on trying to blackmail the country into supporting May's terrible deal?

    I'm sure the Chancellor is keeping detailed records for the forthcoming public inquiry.
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 628

    Hard Brexit is awesome.

    It'll teach the plebs not to ignore their betters.

    David Cameron and George Osborne warned them that No Deal was a risk.

    Leavers are so going to own this, especially given the multitude of times they said No Deal was just Project Fear.

    All I can say is

    Is hard Brexit and no deal the same thing?
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    What do we want?

    NO DEAL!

    Why do we want it?

    CHAOS!
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 3,682
    One does get the feeling that Mike Smithson is a May supporter and very anti Corbyn on ever issue that arises.
    Which has nothing to do with polls or how they fluctuate week to week.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 10,532
    Another interesting data point for the Democratic primaries:
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/421822-sanders-tops-straw-poll-of-progressives-while-warren-places-fourth

    It looks more than ever that Warren's presidential ambitions are over; this should be a key constituency for her.
    I think her an under-appreciated politician...but it looks as though she will remain so.
  • notme2 said:

    Hard Brexit is awesome.

    It'll teach the plebs not to ignore their betters.

    David Cameron and George Osborne warned them that No Deal was a risk.

    Leavers are so going to own this, especially given the multitude of times they said No Deal was just Project Fear.

    All I can say is

    Is hard Brexit and no deal the same thing?
    Not quite but interchangeable.

    Both make the plebs who voted for it suffer, what's not to love?
  • I don't trust the numbers on this question as a reliable guide to what people would do in this situation: hypothetical questions inevitably put too much emphasis on the scenario in question and in reality, people will make their choices on a much broader basis.

    BUT:

    1. Brexit is an important issue to shift votes. Even if the scale of the movement that the poll finds is exaggerated, it would surely exist at some level.

    2. The finding that half Labour's 2017 voters would consider defecting to another party (mainly the LDs) is of itself important, even if this issue alone wouldn't prompt it. Labour should be extremely concerned about what would happen to their support if they got back into government - particularly if yesterday's shambles in parliament was indicative of their collective competence and unity. People don't notice that sort of thing in opposition; they do if you're in government because it matters so much more.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 3,688

    I just want to reiterate:

    THERESA MAY IS ACTIVELY PIVOTING TOWARDS NO DEAL.

    The Prime Minister has lost her fucking mind. This is going to be such delicious chaos. I can't wait.

    It's to promote support for The Deal. No Deal will never happen.
    However. If business and government panic spend the money insuring against something which probably won't happen...might be enough to tip us into recession anyway.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    The important point is that we are crashing out of the EU, into no-deal chaos, with the Tories at the wheel.

    This is, basically Jeremy Corbyn's dream outcome.
  • XenonXenon Posts: 471
    Any idea of the status of people living abroad in the rest EU and here in the event of no deal?
  • Yorkcity said:

    One does get the feeling that Mike Smithson is a May supporter and very anti Corbyn on ever issue that arises.
    Which has nothing to do with polls or how they fluctuate week to week.

    Tut tut.

    You're more than welcome to write a pro Corbyn piece, citing polls if you'd like, to make the the counter argument.

    I'd also point out Mike's most profitable bet ever was to bet on Theresa May underperforming and Corbyn overperforming.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Xenon said:

    Any idea of the status of people living abroad in the rest EU and here in the event of no deal?

    When Spain starts deporting 1.1m Brexit-horny pensioners that will be the greatest moment of all.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 10,532

    I don't trust the numbers on this question as a reliable guide to what people would do in this situation: hypothetical questions inevitably put too much emphasis on the scenario in question and in reality, people will make their choices on a much broader basis.

    BUT:

    1. Brexit is an important issue to shift votes. Even if the scale of the movement that the poll finds is exaggerated, it would surely exist at some level.

    2. The finding that half Labour's 2017 voters would consider defecting to another party (mainly the LDs) is of itself important, even if this issue alone wouldn't prompt it. Labour should be extremely concerned about what would happen to their support if they got back into government - particularly if yesterday's shambles in parliament was indicative of their collective competence and unity. People don't notice that sort of thing in opposition; they do if you're in government because it matters so much more.

    I don't trust the numbers at all - but they are nonetheless very surprising.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 7,486
    Meanwhile, back in November 2016, a poll also found the Lib Dems would beat Labour in an election (22% to 19%) if "Labour promised to go ahead with Brexit while the Lib Dems promised to hold a new referendum":

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/n70ift0nyl/InternalResults_161114_Europe_W.pdf (pg. 14)

    How closely did that poll mirror what actually happened in the following election?
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 1,325
    Xenon said:

    Any idea of the status of people living abroad in the rest EU and here in the event of no deal?

    Quick mini-deals for some countries - there's one in progress with Spain in particular, it's just too much upheaval otherwise.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,562
    Xenon said:

    Any idea of the status of people living abroad in the rest EU and here in the event of no deal?

    It would be entirely a matter for us. We have said that they all have leave to remain, work, use the Health Service and claim benefits. If any member of the EU did not reciprocate, of course, that might change for that nationality.
  • Danny565 said:

    Meanwhile, back in November 2016, a poll also found the Lib Dems would beat Labour in an election (22% to 19%) if "Labour promised to go ahead with Brexit while the Lib Dems promised to hold a new referendum":

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/n70ift0nyl/InternalResults_161114_Europe_W.pdf (pg. 14)

    How closely did that poll mirror what actually happened in the following election?

    Nick Timothy was the game changer.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    I see Sajid David is in favour of an immigration policy that would have excluded his own parents.

    Siri, show me a definition of "peak Tory".
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,562
    Scott_P said:
    In fairness, given the number of troops we have these days the government will have to be fairly selective.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    When you say "people are coming round to her deal", roughly how many MPs would you say that was?

    Bear in mind May has about 290 No majority to flip.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 7,486

    Danny565 said:

    Meanwhile, back in November 2016, a poll also found the Lib Dems would beat Labour in an election (22% to 19%) if "Labour promised to go ahead with Brexit while the Lib Dems promised to hold a new referendum":

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/n70ift0nyl/InternalResults_161114_Europe_W.pdf (pg. 14)

    How closely did that poll mirror what actually happened in the following election?

    Nick Timothy was the game changer.
    Even so, that hypothetical poll was much worse for Labour (and better for the Lib Dems) even than the normal polls were showing at that time, and yet it meant sod-all for what actually happened in the election.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 36,002

    I see Sajid David is in favour of an immigration policy that would have excluded his own parents.

    Siri, show me a definition of "peak Tory".

    Didn’t you say the exact same thing a few days ago? I’m sure everyone agrees that British subjects should have be welcome to Britain.
  • Scott_P said:
    Not if Dominic Raab is dispatching them.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    Danny565 said:

    Meanwhile, back in November 2016, a poll also found the Lib Dems would beat Labour in an election (22% to 19%) if "Labour promised to go ahead with Brexit while the Lib Dems promised to hold a new referendum":

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/n70ift0nyl/InternalResults_161114_Europe_W.pdf (pg. 14)

    How closely did that poll mirror what actually happened in the following election?

    Nick Timothy was the game changer.
    The day that Mrs May came out in favour of both fox and elephant hunting was another one.
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 628

    Danny565 said:

    Meanwhile, back in November 2016, a poll also found the Lib Dems would beat Labour in an election (22% to 19%) if "Labour promised to go ahead with Brexit while the Lib Dems promised to hold a new referendum":

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/n70ift0nyl/InternalResults_161114_Europe_W.pdf (pg. 14)

    How closely did that poll mirror what actually happened in the following election?

    Nick Timothy was the game changer.
    The day that Mrs May came out in favour of both fox and elephant hunting was another one.
    When did May come out in favour of elephant hunting?
  • Danny565 said:

    Meanwhile, back in November 2016, a poll also found the Lib Dems would beat Labour in an election (22% to 19%) if "Labour promised to go ahead with Brexit while the Lib Dems promised to hold a new referendum":

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/n70ift0nyl/InternalResults_161114_Europe_W.pdf (pg. 14)

    How closely did that poll mirror what actually happened in the following election?

    Nick Timothy was the game changer.
    The day that Mrs May came out in favour of both fox and elephant hunting was another one.
    Lots of people, including a few Tory MPs/candidates jumped for joy when Lady Borwick lost her seat.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 1,545
    But if the GE is AFTER Brexit (which IMO it will be) this poll is not useful.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 47,988
    edited December 2018
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Well, it's been a rough for years, but I suppose the unloved and underperforming leader, renowned for stubbornness, had to go sooner or later.

    Edited extra bit: few*
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Guys, I am unreasonably excited in No Deal.

    I've never seen the Tories actually destroy a whole country before, it's going to be fascinating.
  • Xenon said:

    Any idea of the status of people living abroad in the rest EU and here in the event of no deal?

    No - because its up to 27 individual governments.

    If there is No Deal the UK will align EU citizens rights with UK citizens rights (not the superior ones they get under the deal):

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-brexit-no-deal-citizens-rights-withdrawal-agreement-eu-migrants-ring-fencing-a8670506.html
  • Xenon said:

    Any idea of the status of people living abroad in the rest EU and here in the event of no deal?

    When Spain starts deporting 1.1m Brexit-horny pensioners that will be the greatest moment of all.

    Where are they going to find the extra 800,000 British pensioners?

    https://fullfact.org/europe/how-many-uk-citizens-live-other-eu-countries/
  • XenonXenon Posts: 471

    I see Sajid David is in favour of an immigration policy that would have excluded his own parents.

    Siri, show me a definition of "peak Tory".

    Well it makes sense to tighten immigration policy since the numbers are much higher now of people wanting to come to the UK.

    I suppose it's a departure from shouting racist at anyone who wants a working immigration system.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 5,716
    edited December 2018
    Xenon said:

    I see Sajid David is in favour of an immigration policy that would have excluded his own parents.

    Siri, show me a definition of "peak Tory".

    Well it makes sense to tighten immigration policy since the numbers are much higher now of people wanting to come to the UK.

    I suppose it's a departure from shouting racist at anyone who wants a working immigration system.
    * deleted on grounds of taste *
  • Guys, I am unreasonably excited in No Deal.

    I've never seen the Tories actually destroy a whole country before, it's going to be fascinating.

    I'm also looking forward to the destruction of the UK's Eurosceptic movement.

    They're going to be exposed as the charlatans we've always known they've been.

    By April 2019 people will lie and say they have convictions for bestiality than admit they voted for Leave.
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 628
    That’s bordering on fake news. The only elephants who at risk under current rules are ones who have invented a time machine and gone back to 1947 to be killed.

    It had an impact because it was fake news not because it was true. Just because a commitment to ban even further was omitted is not the same as wanting to rescind existing laws.

    But the way a total ban as put in the 2015 manifesto was actually enacted in April this year.

    It’s a lesson that fakenews is everywhere. I seem to recall that this particular piece was the most shared on social media by under 30s.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 16,943
    edited December 2018
    SeanT said:

    fpt

    TOPPING said:

    "At worst May will extend A50 but as per Henry Newman's Twitter thread, people are coming round to the deal. It was put to me that there needed to be a way for deal opponents to climb down with honour and this seems to be happening."

    ***

    But:

    1. She would need a reason to extend A50, and that would either be a referendum or a GE, both of which she has foresworn
    2. If she pushes her Deal through, the DUP will collapse the government and we will get a Corbyn PM, I don't think the Tories will allow that, either

    That's why we end up with No Deal. Horrible partisan politics. God Help Us.

    DUP are apparently moving towards the deal with the right "assurances". Enough people are realising this is the least bad way to leave the EU and hence people will move towards it.

    No deal, as we are seeing from the various snippets today, really is not going to happen.

    Edit: and to think people wanted to put "No Deal" on a referendum question.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,023
    O/T

    Jeremy Corbyn wants to make university cheaper for rich students.

    I would rather we spent more on primary school education.

    And here is my argument why:


    https://thetab.com/uk/2018/12/17/roll-up-roll-up-here-comes-this-years-maddest-fresher-2018-nominees-87915
  • Guys, I am unreasonably excited in No Deal.

    I've never seen the Tories actually destroy a whole country before, it's going to be fascinating.

    I'm also looking forward to the destruction of the UK's Eurosceptic movement.

    They're going to be exposed as the charlatans we've always known they've been.

    By April 2019 people will lie and say they have convictions for bestiality than admit they voted for Leave.
    Nah. They'll say Remainer May screwed it up.

    When have these politicians ever accepted responsibility for anything?
  • Freggles said:

    O/T

    Jeremy Corbyn wants to make university cheaper for rich students.

    I would rather we spent more on primary school education.

    And here is my argument why:


    https://thetab.com/uk/2018/12/17/roll-up-roll-up-here-comes-this-years-maddest-fresher-2018-nominees-87915

    See, this is why I was a good Muslim boy at university.
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 524
    SeanT said:

    OK, I've started stockpiling. Mainly some Gran Reserva Riojas. But also quite a fair bit of Barolo.

    Try the Vega Sicilia from Valladolid.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 22,831

    Hard Brexit is awesome.

    It'll teach the plebs not to ignore their betters.

    David Cameron and George Osborne warned them that No Deal was a risk.

    Leavers are so going to own this, especially given the multitude of times they said No Deal was just Project Fear.

    (Snip)

    Don't you understand? It's all someone else's fault. If only one of those hyper-intelligent leavers - for instance Johnson, or IDS, or Davis - had been running things then it would all be brilliant and there'd be no problems. The EU would have caved in on everything we wanted due to the fervour of their arguments.

    If Brexit turns out to be disastrous, it won't be the fault of the Brexiteers. It'll be the fault of remain voters, for denying them the massive overall majority that leave should have got, and therefore put a remainer in charge of things.

    So if Brexit goes disastrously, it's your fault. It's my fault. It's not the fault of the Brexiteers. And you'd be a liar or a Frenchman to say differently ...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 73,102
    edited December 2018

    Guys, I am unreasonably excited in No Deal.

    I've never seen the Tories actually destroy a whole country before, it's going to be fascinating.

    I'm also looking forward to the destruction of the UK's Eurosceptic movement.

    They're going to be exposed as the charlatans we've always known they've been.

    By April 2019 people will lie and say they have convictions for bestiality than admit they voted for Leave.
    Nah. They'll say Remainer May screwed it up.

    When have these politicians ever accepted responsibility for anything?
    It'll be memes like this that sink the Leavers.



    We should have listened to the experts.

    The real tragedy of no deal Brexit is that it ensure the election of Corbyn as PM, and the Tories won't be able to use the voice of experts warning about Corbynmics.
  • Guys, I am unreasonably excited in No Deal.

    I've never seen the Tories actually destroy a whole country before, it's going to be fascinating.

    I'm also looking forward to the destruction of the UK's Eurosceptic movement.

    They're going to be exposed as the charlatans we've always known they've been.

    By April 2019 people will lie and say they have convictions for bestiality than admit they voted for Leave.
    Do you really think so TSE, this will end the Eurosceptic movement like the referendum did.

    We are already seeing a stab-in-the-back myth developing.
  • Awb683Awb683 Posts: 55
    Why would anyone ever vote Labour???
  • TOPPING said:

    SeanT said:

    fpt

    TOPPING said:

    "At worst May will extend A50 but as per Henry Newman's Twitter thread, people are coming round to the deal. It was put to me that there needed to be a way for deal opponents to climb down with honour and this seems to be happening."

    ***

    But:

    1. She would need a reason to extend A50, and that would either be a referendum or a GE, both of which she has foresworn
    2. If she pushes her Deal through, the DUP will collapse the government and we will get a Corbyn PM, I don't think the Tories will allow that, either

    That's why we end up with No Deal. Horrible partisan politics. God Help Us.

    DUP are apparently moving towards the deal with the right "assurances". Enough people are realising this is the least bad way to leave the EU and hence people will move towards it.

    No deal, as we are seeing from the various snippets today, really is not going to happen.

    Edit: and to think people wanted to put "No Deal" on a referendum question.
    May cannot give the DUP the assurances they want unless it is by delivering No Deal.

    Now, it may be that she doesn't understand what she's doing or saying; it may be that she's being far too optimistic in her assessment of what she can wring from the EU and/or what the DUP will accept; but it may also be that she has chosen to actively pursue a managed No Deal outcome.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 1,545
    2nd Ref versus No Deal! That is such an unbearably exciting match up. Both sides massively well supported and to add spice they hate each others guts. It's a mouth watering prospect, even for the neutrals, and we hope that it will live up to the hype. We foresee goals galore and great saves, controversial penalties and red cards, with a narrow triumph for one or the other, perhaps after extra time. But of course in prosaic reality it will probably disappoint, as these great and much anticipated events so often do. Because the fly in the ointment, the boring nil nil draw which nobody wants to see but which the smart money is on, is the Deal.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 25,605
    Nigelb said:

    I don't trust the numbers on this question as a reliable guide to what people would do in this situation: hypothetical questions inevitably put too much emphasis on the scenario in question and in reality, people will make their choices on a much broader basis.

    BUT:

    1. Brexit is an important issue to shift votes. Even if the scale of the movement that the poll finds is exaggerated, it would surely exist at some level.

    2. The finding that half Labour's 2017 voters would consider defecting to another party (mainly the LDs) is of itself important, even if this issue alone wouldn't prompt it. Labour should be extremely concerned about what would happen to their support if they got back into government - particularly if yesterday's shambles in parliament was indicative of their collective competence and unity. People don't notice that sort of thing in opposition; they do if you're in government because it matters so much more.

    I don't trust the numbers at all - but they are nonetheless very surprising.
    It comes close to push-polling IMHO. I don't think Labour's vote will ever go below 30%.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 2,287
    Looks like the country is heading to the calamitous hard Brexit that *it* voted for. Real shame but it is the will of the people (yes the people may have been been fooled by disingenuous lying politicians but hey-ho).

    Anyway, it would be wise to have survival supplies to hand where budget permits.

  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    DAN HODGES: Why the Tories utterly destroying the UK in a no-deal crash out is TERRIBLE for Jeremy Corbybn
  • Guys, I am unreasonably excited in No Deal.

    I've never seen the Tories actually destroy a whole country before, it's going to be fascinating.

    I'm also looking forward to the destruction of the UK's Eurosceptic movement.

    They're going to be exposed as the charlatans we've always known they've been.

    By April 2019 people will lie and say they have convictions for bestiality than admit they voted for Leave.
    Do you really think so TSE, this will end the Eurosceptic movement like the referendum did.

    We are already seeing a stab-in-the-back myth developing.
    I do, one thing apparently Gove is admitting privately is that one of the unintended consequences of Brexit is that it has created a pro European movement in the UK where none existed before.

    It is hard to see several hundred thousand people marching in London in favour of the EU if Remain had won.

    Leave are the establishment now.

    Every bad thing that happens in the UK for the next few years is going to be blamed on Brexit, even the next cyclical recession.
  • Guys, I am unreasonably excited in No Deal.

    I've never seen the Tories actually destroy a whole country before, it's going to be fascinating.

    I'm also looking forward to the destruction of the UK's Eurosceptic movement.

    They're going to be exposed as the charlatans we've always known they've been.

    By April 2019 people will lie and say they have convictions for bestiality than admit they voted for Leave.
    Nah. They'll say Remainer May screwed it up.

    When have these politicians ever accepted responsibility for anything?
    If you wanted Leave politicians to take responsibility then Leave politicians should have been made responsible.

    When leading Leave advocates have been screaming that Remainer May is doing the wrong thing at the time then it isn't hindsight to blame Remainer May afterwards.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited December 2018


    Now, it may be that she doesn't understand what she's doing or saying; it may be that she's being far too optimistic in her assessment of what she can wring from the EU and/or what the DUP will accept; but it may also be that she has chosen to actively pursue a managed No Deal outcome.

    The DUP are playing for time. There are no assurances forthcoming. The Withdrawal Agreement commits Northern Ireland to remain permanently, legally aligned with the EU; nothing May says will change that.

    The DUP know this, of course. They're not idiots.
  • Guys, I am unreasonably excited in No Deal.

    I've never seen the Tories actually destroy a whole country before, it's going to be fascinating.

    I'm also looking forward to the destruction of the UK's Eurosceptic movement.

    They're going to be exposed as the charlatans we've always known they've been.

    By April 2019 people will lie and say they have convictions for bestiality than admit they voted for Leave.
    Nah. They'll say Remainer May screwed it up.

    When have these politicians ever accepted responsibility for anything?
    It'll be memes like this that sink the Leavers.



    Clearly aimed at Remainers.

    It would have no relevance for Leavers, being the Great Unwashed.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 16,943

    Guys, I am unreasonably excited in No Deal.

    I've never seen the Tories actually destroy a whole country before, it's going to be fascinating.

    I'm also looking forward to the destruction of the UK's Eurosceptic movement.

    They're going to be exposed as the charlatans we've always known they've been.

    By April 2019 people will lie and say they have convictions for bestiality than admit they voted for Leave.
    Nah. They'll say Remainer May screwed it up.

    When have these politicians ever accepted responsibility for anything?
    It'll be memes like this that sink the Leavers.



    We should have listened to the experts.

    The real tragedy of no deal Brexit is that it ensure the election of Corbyn as PM, and the Tories won't be able to use the voice of experts warning about Corbynmics.
    Yes. Some economist, what's that you say, he's the governor of the Bank of England, saying Corbyn's policies would present challenges for the country?

    Pah, an expert. Cons Brexiters can't complain if Lab dismiss the warnings. What is sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 50,001


    May cannot give the DUP the assurances they want unless it is by delivering No Deal.
    but it may also be that she has chosen to actively pursue a managed No Deal outcome.

    O_O Yep you may well be correct.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 5,716

    DAN HODGES: Why the Tories utterly destroying the UK in a no-deal crash out is TERRIBLE for Jeremy Corbybn

    DAN HODGES: Why Jeremy Corbyn willing the lottery, curing cancer, inventing cold fusion, and being elected Supreme Overlord of the Earth in perpetuity is TERRIBLE for Jeremy Corbyn.
  • Guys, I am unreasonably excited in No Deal.

    I've never seen the Tories actually destroy a whole country before, it's going to be fascinating.

    I'm also looking forward to the destruction of the UK's Eurosceptic movement.

    They're going to be exposed as the charlatans we've always known they've been.

    By April 2019 people will lie and say they have convictions for bestiality than admit they voted for Leave.
    Nah. They'll say Remainer May screwed it up.

    When have these politicians ever accepted responsibility for anything?
    If you wanted Leave politicians to take responsibility then Leave politicians should have been made responsible.

    When leading Leave advocates have been screaming that Remainer May is doing the wrong thing at the time then it isn't hindsight to blame Remainer May afterwards.
    That's nearly as embarrassing as your fantasy about Leo Varadkar being publicly very Pro Scottish Independence.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 73,102
    edited December 2018
    I mean just look at the comments from David Davis in the 2016, they were not of someone who ever thought No Deal was a possibility.

    He said that we might only do a transition as a favour to the EU.

  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    TOPPING said:

    "At worst May will extend A50 but as per Henry Newman's Twitter thread, people are coming round to the deal. It was put to me that there needed to be a way for deal opponents to climb down with honour and this seems to be happening."


    More political myopia. Everyone talks like the politics are all that matters. That it is Corbyn, May & Barnier who will decide everything with maybe the DUP throwing a few caltrops into the arena.

    Business, industry, banking, medicine - all these have an effect. The politicians do not operate in a vacuum. When jobs go, they are gone for good and those jobs impact voters.
  • DavidL said:

    Imagine there’s no Brexit,
    I wonder if you can
    Nothing to debate on PB
    Just a brotherhood of man

    Imagine all the remainers
    As smug as smug as smug can be
    The riff raff defeated,
    their votes just history

    You may say that I’m a dreamer
    But I’m not the only one
    Why don’t you come and join us
    So we can get to a majority
    (Not that that matters of course, we get to win anyway)

    Or something like that.

    Perhaps a rendition of Working Class Hero for JRM, Farage, IDS etc?
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Scott_P said:
    Which way will the army be pointing? Across the channel or at its own citizens?
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    What's that going over a cliff?
    Is it a Brexit? Is it a Brexit?
  • Guys, I am unreasonably excited in No Deal.

    I've never seen the Tories actually destroy a whole country before, it's going to be fascinating.

    I'm also looking forward to the destruction of the UK's Eurosceptic movement.

    They're going to be exposed as the charlatans we've always known they've been.

    By April 2019 people will lie and say they have convictions for bestiality than admit they voted for Leave.
    Nah. They'll say Remainer May screwed it up.

    When have these politicians ever accepted responsibility for anything?
    If you wanted Leave politicians to take responsibility then Leave politicians should have been made responsible.

    When leading Leave advocates have been screaming that Remainer May is doing the wrong thing at the time then it isn't hindsight to blame Remainer May afterwards.
    That's nearly as embarrassing as your fantasy about Leo Varadkar being publicly very Pro Scottish Independence.
    It's not remotely embarrassing. Remainer May has been in charge along with Remainer Robbins and has sidelined the Leavers to much glee from yourself.

    It's like someone suggesting we take a road trip to France, then a driver who didn't want to go to France (May) insists upon driving off the cliffs of Dover and driving across the Channel.

    Leavers whose idea it was to take the journey keep saying it is wrong. We've suggested taking the Ferry instead but are being ignored as May keeps driving to the cliff edge.

    If despite all the warnings May's incompetence takes us over the cliff then that doesn't mean the journey itself was wrong. We should have taken the Ferry as we suggested.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    Scott_P said:
    Which way will the army be pointing? Across the channel or at its own citizens?
    The army will be brought in to protect the UK's vital supply of lichen and mealworms.
  • Guys, I am unreasonably excited in No Deal.

    I've never seen the Tories actually destroy a whole country before, it's going to be fascinating.

    I'm also looking forward to the destruction of the UK's Eurosceptic movement.

    They're going to be exposed as the charlatans we've always known they've been.

    By April 2019 people will lie and say they have convictions for bestiality than admit they voted for Leave.
    Nah. They'll say Remainer May screwed it up.

    When have these politicians ever accepted responsibility for anything?
    If you wanted Leave politicians to take responsibility then Leave politicians should have been made responsible.

    When leading Leave advocates have been screaming that Remainer May is doing the wrong thing at the time then it isn't hindsight to blame Remainer May afterwards.
    That's nearly as embarrassing as your fantasy about Leo Varadkar being publicly very Pro Scottish Independence.
    It's not remotely embarrassing. Remainer May has been in charge along with Remainer Robbins and has sidelined the Leavers to much glee from yourself.

    It's like someone suggesting we take a road trip to France, then a driver who didn't want to go to France (May) insists upon driving off the cliffs of Dover and driving across the Channel.

    Leavers whose idea it was to take the journey keep saying it is wrong. We've suggested taking the Ferry instead but are being ignored as May keeps driving to the cliff edge.

    If despite all the warnings May's incompetence takes us over the cliff then that doesn't mean the journey itself was wrong. We should have taken the Ferry as we suggested.
    See my post at 2:40pm.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 25,605

    Guys, I am unreasonably excited in No Deal.

    I've never seen the Tories actually destroy a whole country before, it's going to be fascinating.

    I'm also looking forward to the destruction of the UK's Eurosceptic movement.

    They're going to be exposed as the charlatans we've always known they've been.

    By April 2019 people will lie and say they have convictions for bestiality than admit they voted for Leave.
    Do you really think so TSE, this will end the Eurosceptic movement like the referendum did.

    We are already seeing a stab-in-the-back myth developing.
    I do, one thing apparently Gove is admitting privately is that one of the unintended consequences of Brexit is that it has created a pro European movement in the UK where none existed before.

    It is hard to see several hundred thousand people marching in London in favour of the EU if Remain had won.

    Leave are the establishment now.

    Every bad thing that happens in the UK for the next few years is going to be blamed on Brexit, even the next cyclical recession.
    People will probably double down on the views which they already hold.

    If steps are taken on both sides to mitigate the impact of No Deal (as seems likely) then the economy won't fall off a cliff on 30th March. The impact in the longer term might well be serious, but if there is no sudden crash, a lot of people will just conclude that it was another case of crying wolf.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 25,894
    edited December 2018
    FPT
    TOPPING said:


    Read the Newman thread (it was linked to above/below). The DUP may get the assurances they need. Certainly the direction of travel is encouraging.

    There really by any sensible (!) estimation is no alternative to the deal. And people will slowly but surely fall into line with that thinking.

    It's counterintuitive but I think falling into line with the deal is a prerequisite for a second referendum. The Brexit option needs to be accepted as legitimate if we're going to have a Deal/Remain vote, otherwise the whole thing will be too easy to discredit.

  • mattmatt Posts: 2,527

    Guys, I am unreasonably excited in No Deal.

    I've never seen the Tories actually destroy a whole country before, it's going to be fascinating.

    I'm also looking forward to the destruction of the UK's Eurosceptic movement.

    They're going to be exposed as the charlatans we've always known they've been.

    By April 2019 people will lie and say they have convictions for bestiality than admit they voted for Leave.
    Do you really think so TSE, this will end the Eurosceptic movement like the referendum did.

    We are already seeing a stab-in-the-back myth developing.
    It being pretty enthusiastically done by the very, very stupid class here. We've reached the point of argument that Mordaunt is the great hope for a "proper" Brexit. Still, their pensions will sail on unaffected.
  • SeanT said:

    Guys, I am unreasonably excited in No Deal.

    I've never seen the Tories actually destroy a whole country before, it's going to be fascinating.

    I'm also looking forward to the destruction of the UK's Eurosceptic movement.

    They're going to be exposed as the charlatans we've always known they've been.

    By April 2019 people will lie and say they have convictions for bestiality than admit they voted for Leave.
    I entirely agree that the present bunch of eurosceptics, especially the ministers, have been exposed as idiots and charlatans.

    BUT the eurosceptics were right about Maastricht and Lisbon. Especially Lisbon. If we'd had the referendum the eurosceptics asked for, and we all wanted, the referendum we were solemnly promised (then denied) by Blair and Cameron, et al, we would have voted it down. Then there would have been no Article 50, and integration would have stopped, and Brexit wouldn't even exist as a word. Sigh.

    So if Brexit is a disaster, the eurosceptics will have a point, when they blame it on europhiles, even though the eurosceptics in the government have turned out to be foolish cretins.

    It's poignant and paradoxical, but it is the case. Europhile arrogance and disdain for public opinion, over decades, has brought us to this horrible place, even more than eurosceptic stupidity and bullishness.
    Blair and Brown.

    The election that never was got cancelled rendering Cameron's pledge moot. Lisbon was already ratified before he took over.
  • Guys, I am unreasonably excited in No Deal.

    I've never seen the Tories actually destroy a whole country before, it's going to be fascinating.

    I'm also looking forward to the destruction of the UK's Eurosceptic movement.

    They're going to be exposed as the charlatans we've always known they've been.

    By April 2019 people will lie and say they have convictions for bestiality than admit they voted for Leave.
    Do you really think so TSE, this will end the Eurosceptic movement like the referendum did.

    We are already seeing a stab-in-the-back myth developing.
    I do, one thing apparently Gove is admitting privately is that one of the unintended consequences of Brexit is that it has created a pro European movement in the UK where none existed before.

    It is hard to see several hundred thousand people marching in London in favour of the EU if Remain had won.

    Leave are the establishment now.

    Every bad thing that happens in the UK for the next few years is going to be blamed on Brexit, even the next cyclical recession.
    The creation of a pro-European contingent is not to the exclusion of a continued anti-Europe predominately right-wing contingent.

    The median voter's view of the EU has barely changed.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 1,723

    Scott_P said:
    Which way will the army be pointing? Across the channel or at its own citizens?
    3,500 are going to have a hard time controlling 65 million. Unless the 3,500 includes the crew of the on patrol Trident boat.
  • XenonXenon Posts: 471

    Guys, I am unreasonably excited in No Deal.

    I've never seen the Tories actually destroy a whole country before, it's going to be fascinating.

    I'm also looking forward to the destruction of the UK's Eurosceptic movement.

    They're going to be exposed as the charlatans we've always known they've been.

    By April 2019 people will lie and say they have convictions for bestiality than admit they voted for Leave.
    Nah. They'll say Remainer May screwed it up.

    When have these politicians ever accepted responsibility for anything?
    If you wanted Leave politicians to take responsibility then Leave politicians should have been made responsible.

    When leading Leave advocates have been screaming that Remainer May is doing the wrong thing at the time then it isn't hindsight to blame Remainer May afterwards.
    They are having a tantrum at the fact that we might actually be leaving the EU.

    And also because they realise that this mess was caused by them signing up to this stuff that the majority didn't want.
  • I mean just look at the comments from David Davis in the 2016, they were not of someone who ever thought No Deal was a possibility.

    He said that we might only do a transition as a favour to the EU.

    Were not those quotes before Remainer May spiked negotiations?
  • I mean just look at the comments from David Davis in the 2016, they were not of someone who ever thought No Deal was a possibility.

    He said that we might only do a transition as a favour to the EU.

    Were not those quotes before Remainer May spiked negotiations?
    No.
  • This graphic puts the Deal as "Hardish Brexit"

    https://brexitoptions.co.uk/diagram.html
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    FPT

    TOPPING said:


    Read the Newman thread (it was linked to above/below). The DUP may get the assurances they need. Certainly the direction of travel is encouraging.

    There really by any sensible (!) estimation is no alternative to the deal. And people will slowly but surely fall into line with that thinking.

    It's counterintuitive but I think falling into line with the deal is a prerequisite for a second referendum. The Brexit option needs to be accepted as legitimate if we're going to have a Deal/Remain vote, otherwise the whole thing will be too easy to discredit.

    The Newman Thread does not explain *why* Revocation is off the table - he just says it is. So it is opinion, nothing more.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 18,298
    edited December 2018

    I mean just look at the comments from David Davis in the 2016, they were not of someone who ever thought No Deal was a possibility.

    He said that we might only do a transition as a favour to the EU.

    Were not those quotes before Remainer May spiked negotiations?
    No.
    Yes they were. Here is a hint, 2016 was before 2017. As was this from your list. Remainer May spiked the negotiations in 2017 on day 1 of them and so this never happened.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 25,894
    Sean_F said:

    Guys, I am unreasonably excited in No Deal.

    I've never seen the Tories actually destroy a whole country before, it's going to be fascinating.

    I'm also looking forward to the destruction of the UK's Eurosceptic movement.

    They're going to be exposed as the charlatans we've always known they've been.

    By April 2019 people will lie and say they have convictions for bestiality than admit they voted for Leave.
    Do you really think so TSE, this will end the Eurosceptic movement like the referendum did.

    We are already seeing a stab-in-the-back myth developing.
    I do, one thing apparently Gove is admitting privately is that one of the unintended consequences of Brexit is that it has created a pro European movement in the UK where none existed before.

    It is hard to see several hundred thousand people marching in London in favour of the EU if Remain had won.

    Leave are the establishment now.

    Every bad thing that happens in the UK for the next few years is going to be blamed on Brexit, even the next cyclical recession.
    People will probably double down on the views which they already hold.

    If steps are taken on both sides to mitigate the impact of No Deal (as seems likely) then the economy won't fall off a cliff on 30th March. The impact in the longer term might well be serious, but if there is no sudden crash, a lot of people will just conclude that it was another case of crying wolf.
    Does your version of 'no deal' not involve WTO tariffs applying on day one? I'm not sure how you arrive at a version of 'no deal' where the impact is long term, not short term.
  • FPT

    TOPPING said:


    Read the Newman thread (it was linked to above/below). The DUP may get the assurances they need. Certainly the direction of travel is encouraging.

    There really by any sensible (!) estimation is no alternative to the deal. And people will slowly but surely fall into line with that thinking.

    It's counterintuitive but I think falling into line with the deal is a prerequisite for a second referendum. The Brexit option needs to be accepted as legitimate if we're going to have a Deal/Remain vote, otherwise the whole thing will be too easy to discredit.

    The Newman Thread does not explain *why* Revocation is off the table - he just says it is. So it is opinion, nothing more.
    When has the government suggested it is on the table?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 14,826
    DavidL said:

    Xenon said:

    Any idea of the status of people living abroad in the rest EU and here in the event of no deal?

    It would be entirely a matter for us. We have said that they all have leave to remain, work, use the Health Service and claim benefits. If any member of the EU did not reciprocate, of course, that might change for that nationality.
    A close friend of mine is British but married a Belgian after leaving university, and they lived there and had three children. She's now back in Scotland with the children (as is he) but they are separated and she is trying to sort out the position of her children. She tells me that so far one has been given a British passport, one granted indefinite leave to stay on her Belgian passport, and the other is still waiting to hear. Real people, real lives.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 15,366
    edited December 2018

    Guys, I am unreasonably excited in No Deal.

    I've never seen the Tories actually destroy a whole country before, it's going to be fascinating.

    I'm also looking forward to the destruction of the UK's Eurosceptic movement.

    They're going to be exposed as the charlatans we've always known they've been.

    By April 2019 people will lie and say they have convictions for bestiality than admit they voted for Leave.
    Nah. They'll say Remainer May screwed it up.

    When have these politicians ever accepted responsibility for anything?
    If you wanted Leave politicians to take responsibility then Leave politicians should have been made responsible.

    When leading Leave advocates have been screaming that Remainer May is doing the wrong thing at the time then it isn't hindsight to blame Remainer May afterwards.
    That's nearly as embarrassing as your fantasy about Leo Varadkar being publicly very Pro Scottish Independence.
    It's not remotely embarrassing. Remainer May has been in charge along with Remainer Robbins and has sidelined the Leavers to much glee from yourself.

    It's like someone suggesting we take a road trip to France, then a driver who didn't want to go to France (May) insists upon driving off the cliffs of Dover and driving across the Channel.

    Leavers whose idea it was to take the journey keep saying it is wrong. We've suggested taking the Ferry instead but are being ignored as May keeps driving to the cliff edge.

    If despite all the warnings May's incompetence takes us over the cliff then that doesn't mean the journey itself was wrong. We should have taken the Ferry as we suggested.
    May has ferry tickets. Unfortunately, the Leavers are insistent that the car has secret Chitty Chitty Bang Bang qualities and can fly.
  • FPT

    TOPPING said:


    Read the Newman thread (it was linked to above/below). The DUP may get the assurances they need. Certainly the direction of travel is encouraging.

    There really by any sensible (!) estimation is no alternative to the deal. And people will slowly but surely fall into line with that thinking.

    It's counterintuitive but I think falling into line with the deal is a prerequisite for a second referendum. The Brexit option needs to be accepted as legitimate if we're going to have a Deal/Remain vote, otherwise the whole thing will be too easy to discredit.

    The Newman Thread does not explain *why* Revocation is off the table - he just says it is. So it is opinion, nothing more.
    When has the government suggested it is on the table?
    Is implicit when Mrs May warns of ‘No Brexit’
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 14,826
    Everyone seems to believe Mrs May? And to think people said she was a poor negotiator.
This discussion has been closed.