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  • Bear in mind that in the 73 years since Attlee formed his government, the average PM tenure is about 5 years, so a 250/1 shot implies the sort of thing that happens less than once-a-millennium. Granted that there's much more flux at the moment and a change of PM is more likely that usual but I still think that 250/1 is more than fair.

    On which note, I would have thought the 250/1 on the Lib Dems winning Most Seats at the next election represents value. There's a fair few steps needed but they're all more than possible.
    Yes. In fact, I don't think there are all that many steps - though there are several scenarios through which it could come about. Most realistic is something similar to 1981, with mass defections from Labour to Lib Dem, which by reducing the fear of a Corbyn government then removes one of the props to the Tory vote share (especially if combined with a No Deal Brexit recession). Presumably a change of leader would need to come into the bargain.
  • Good for him. Would be great to see others saying the same.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,847

    Remember that '2nd Ref' is not a Brexit outcome; it's a Brexit mechanism. There's no such thing as Deal vs Ref, the true option is certainty of Deal vs (one of various options delivered via an uncertain and uncontrollable referendum).

    Yes, a bit of shorthand from me there. My assumption is that a 2nd ref means a binary deal vs remain (cannot conceive of another formulation being approved) and that the result of such takes its name from David Brent's touring band. Remain*.

    * Band is not called Remain, that's the result of the ref.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    Nick Boles statement just gave Corbyn a massive reason to vote down the WA.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,267
    Pulpstar said:

    Nick Boles statement just gave Corbyn a massive reason to vote down the WA.

    Er... like he wasn't going to anyway?
  • justin124 said:

    How long were the queues at Dover back in 1972 before we joined the EEC?

    Oh FFS.

    Trade, modern supply chains, new technology etc etc etc Transformed out of all sight compared to 1972.
    The simplistic stupidity of the average leaver is summed up by this post
  • I agree with Nick.

    Lest we forget Boles was Gove’s leadership campaign manager.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    justin124 said:

    How long were the queues at Dover back in 1972 before we joined the EEC?

    Oh FFS.

    Trade, modern supply chains, new technology etc etc etc Transformed out of all sight compared to 1972.
    The simplistic stupidity of the average leaver is summed up by this post
    Be thankful for small mercies. At least he said 1972 and not 1792.
  • Again apols if posted before - Another good thread - the 'Tinkerbell theory of Brexit':

    https://twitter.com/redhistorian/status/1074634063322013696

    All countries have their 'myths' ours of "stood alone" (with a quarter of the planet) is no substitute for rational analysis

    It is things like this that make me want No Deal Brexit. Queues of lorries, high unemployment and everything completely FUBAR'd, because it seems to be the only way we will ever be free of this Plucky Little Britain Triumphs Again bullsh*t.

    Basically, wallowing in nostalgia is no way to improve the future.
    Until plucky little Britain triumphs again.

    It's what we do.
    We haven't got an Empire we can call on for help now.
    And at least half the population think that the hardcore Leavers are demented.
    Using the word "think" suggests it is merely an opinion...
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215

    Good for him. Would be great to see others saying the same.
    Soubry has agreed with him, so that's two. You'd think people like Clark, Grieve, Allen would do the same as well. And that's before you get anymore cabinet resignations.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,267

    Bear in mind that in the 73 years since Attlee formed his government, the average PM tenure is about 5 years, so a 250/1 shot implies the sort of thing that happens less than once-a-millennium. Granted that there's much more flux at the moment and a change of PM is more likely that usual but I still think that 250/1 is more than fair.

    On which note, I would have thought the 250/1 on the Lib Dems winning Most Seats at the next election represents value. There's a fair few steps needed but they're all more than possible.
    Yes. In fact, I don't think there are all that many steps - though there are several scenarios through which it could come about. Most realistic is something similar to 1981, with mass defections from Labour to Lib Dem, which by reducing the fear of a Corbyn government then removes one of the props to the Tory vote share (especially if combined with a No Deal Brexit recession). Presumably a change of leader would need to come into the bargain.
    LDs winning most seats is probably no less likely than Trump becoming POTUS tbf.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841

    Pulpstar said:

    Nick Boles statement just gave Corbyn a massive reason to vote down the WA.

    Er... like he wasn't going to anyway?
    Releases all the pressure on Labour if he knows he can get Boles, Soubry and enough implied Tories to bring down their own Government.
    Unless I'm mistaken this is what Boles has just said...
  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:


    Foxy said:

    On the fourth day of Christmas my true love sent me
    Four waiting Lorries, three customs officers, two portaloos and a riot in the city...
    And for balance, just how will that be any different from across the Irish Sea, The Channel, and North Sea ports

    The EU will be well and truely log jammed and if you think the French are having a go just now, just wait for 20 mile queus at Calais, and the Irish hgv blocked in Dun Laoghaire
    Probably, but that is not our problem.
    It is everyone's problem including the EU who will have failed completely. The pressure on governments across the EU will be colossal
    Nothing like the pressure here.

    After all, Brexit was our choice not theirs.
    That is too simplistic but then you are in awe of the EU
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    justin124 said:

    How long were the queues at Dover back in 1972 before we joined the EEC?

    Oh FFS.

    Trade, modern supply chains, new technology etc etc etc Transformed out of all sight compared to 1972.
    The simplistic stupidity of the average leaver is summed up by this post
    It was actually a question rather than a statement - ie a request for information!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    Looks like seven Tories are going to commit the ultimate hari-kari move after the MV and force a General Election.
  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:


    Foxy said:

    On the fourth day of Christmas my true love sent me
    Four waiting Lorries, three customs officers, two portaloos and a riot in the city...
    And for balance, just how will that be any different from across the Irish Sea, The Channel, and North Sea ports

    The EU will be well and truely log jammed and if you think the French are having a go just now, just wait for 20 mile queus at Calais, and the Irish hgv blocked in Dun Laoghaire
    Probably, but that is not our problem.
    It is everyone's problem including the EU who will have failed completely. The pressure on governments across the EU will be colossal
    Nothing like the pressure here.

    After all, Brexit was our choice not theirs.
    Indeed because we see a positive out of this. They don't.
    Only the madly deluded could think there is anything positive about this situation. You are Mohammed Saeed al-Sahhaf and I claim my £5
  • I reckon that’s at least one Tory MP who will VONC his own government over No Deal Brexit.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Looks like seven Tories are going to commit the ultimate hari-kari move after the MV and force a General Election.

    Source? Who would do that?
  • Bear in mind that in the 73 years since Attlee formed his government, the average PM tenure is about 5 years, so a 250/1 shot implies the sort of thing that happens less than once-a-millennium. Granted that there's much more flux at the moment and a change of PM is more likely that usual but I still think that 250/1 is more than fair.

    On which note, I would have thought the 250/1 on the Lib Dems winning Most Seats at the next election represents value. There's a fair few steps needed but they're all more than possible.
    Yes. In fact, I don't think there are all that many steps - though there are several scenarios through which it could come about. Most realistic is something similar to 1981, with mass defections from Labour to Lib Dem, which by reducing the fear of a Corbyn government then removes one of the props to the Tory vote share (especially if combined with a No Deal Brexit recession). Presumably a change of leader would need to come into the bargain.
    Yes, Brexit (whether Deal or No Deal) seen as a joint Conservative-Corbyn enterprise, new leader, perhaps a recession, and defections, perhaps from both sides.

    One potential risk is that a further step might be a rebrand and re-naming of the party. Though I'd still be arguing to get paid if it was the same legal entity.
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    May wins, DUP no confidence her, May loses, her own side no confidence her.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074

    Again apols if posted before - Another good thread - the 'Tinkerbell theory of Brexit':

    https://twitter.com/redhistorian/status/1074634063322013696

    All countries have their 'myths' ours of "stood alone" (with a quarter of the planet) is no substitute for rational analysis

    It is things like this that make me want No Deal Brexit. Queues of lorries, high unemployment and everything completely FUBAR'd, because it seems to be the only way we will ever be free of this Plucky Little Britain Triumphs Again bullsh*t.

    Basically, wallowing in nostalgia is no way to improve the future.
    Until plucky little Britain triumphs again.

    It's what we do.
    We haven't got an Empire we can call on for help now.
    And at least half the population think that the hardcore Leavers are demented.
    You are being too kind.

    The government has taken leave of its senses.

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,392
    edited December 2018

    I reckon that’s at least one Tory MP who will VONC his own government over No Deal Brexit.

    And 10 DUPers who will do it over Deal.

    Looks like the end of the line either way.

    Edit: Dan beat me to it!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Tesco chairman on R4 saying how Tesco will stockpile food ahead of March.

    Billions and billions of pounds of stock.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841

    Pulpstar said:

    Looks like seven Tories are going to commit the ultimate hari-kari move after the MV and force a General Election.

    Source? Who would do that?
    I'm extrapolating from Nick Boles' tweet and note he is not amongst the 19 remainers on yesterday's list.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    SeanT said:

    Anecdote.

    My largely eurosceptic family (with a few Remainers), is remarkably relaxed about No Deal, even as they admit it could be horrible.

    "We've been through worse. Our grandparents endured the Blitz. It's not like anyone is going to invade, in living memory we had no antibiotics"..... etc etc

    I confess I am impressed by their very British stoicism and sangfroid.

    The Blitz generation may still have that stoicism but the country as a whole? - not so much. I cite as evidence the stiff upper lip attitude displayed after Princess Diana's death.
    The urban softies will panic. If indications so far are anything to go by, inside the M25 will just be a mass of soiled underwear.

    Pretty much everywhere else will shrug - and eat roadkill pheasants and badgers for a couple for weeks, until the roads around Dover get declogged.
    The notion that a country so stuffed full of food - not to mention with such an overweight citizenry - as ours might starve as a result of any likely Brexit fallout is for the birds. There's probably enough chocolate alone in British shops to provide everyone's recommended calorie intake for a month.

    But yes, I concur that upper middle class, faux Marxist North Londoners would not be at all happy in the unlikely event of being forced to live off Fray Bentos meat pies and Cadbury's Dairy Milk for a few days. Good. I'm sure that the inevitable march on Whitehall demanding "Our right to superfood salads and quinoa" would further endear them to the nation at large.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Nick Boles statement just gave Corbyn a massive reason to vote down the WA.

    Er... like he wasn't going to anyway?
    Releases all the pressure on Labour if he knows he can get Boles, Soubry and enough implied Tories to bring down their own Government.
    Unless I'm mistaken this is what Boles has just said...
    Indeed. He can just keep rejecting both the deal and the People's Vote campaigners arguing Tories will trigger an election. He has nothing to lose.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    TOPPING said:

    Tesco chairman on R4 saying how Tesco will stockpile food ahead of March.

    Billions and billions of pounds of stock.

    They'll reap the rewards when the other supermarkets go out of stock :smiley:
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,267
    DanSmith said:

    Good for him. Would be great to see others saying the same.
    Soubry has agreed with him, so that's two. You'd think people like Clark, Grieve, Allen would do the same as well. And that's before you get anymore cabinet resignations.
    I think those believing No Deal is the most likely outcome need to consider this.

    There is definitely a majority in the HoC against it. The opposition parties would pretty much vote against it to a person and it seems very likely that enough Tories will vote against No Deal, even if the onlt way they can do that is through a VoNC.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Truly astonishing a country is acting as if it’s about to go to war and it’s peacetime !

    And apparently now Leavers voted for no deal ! The ERG and the no deal nutjobs in the cabinet are utterly loathsome and are playing with people’s livelihoods over their pathetic ideology .
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    I assume if seven Tories (Might be more, no point in it being less) do take this ultimate step it'll be instant deselection for them in any subsequent GE..
  • Pulpstar said:

    Nick Boles statement just gave Corbyn a massive reason to vote down the WA.

    Corbyn is the type of socialist who is quite comfortable with maximum chaos in order to pave the way for his utopia. Once again he is in good company with the headbangers of the Tory right. For this reason he will vote down anything that would lead to stability and order. He is the perfect useful idiot for Vladimir Putin, along with his fellow travellers in Momentum and the ERG.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,392

    SeanT said:

    Anecdote.

    My largely eurosceptic family (with a few Remainers), is remarkably relaxed about No Deal, even as they admit it could be horrible.

    "We've been through worse. Our grandparents endured the Blitz. It's not like anyone is going to invade, in living memory we had no antibiotics"..... etc etc

    I confess I am impressed by their very British stoicism and sangfroid.

    The Blitz generation may still have that stoicism but the country as a whole? - not so much. I cite as evidence the stiff upper lip attitude displayed after Princess Diana's death.
    The urban softies will panic. If indications so far are anything to go by, inside the M25 will just be a mass of soiled underwear.

    Pretty much everywhere else will shrug - and eat roadkill pheasants and badgers for a couple for weeks, until the roads around Dover get declogged.
    The notion that a country so stuffed full of food - not to mention with such an overweight citizenry - as ours might starve as a result of any likely Brexit fallout is for the birds. There's probably enough chocolate alone in British shops to provide everyone's recommended calorie intake for a month.

    But yes, I concur that upper middle class, faux Marxist North Londoners would not be at all happy in the unlikely event of being forced to live off Fray Bentos meat pies and Cadbury's Dairy Milk for a few days. Good. I'm sure that the inevitable march on Whitehall demanding "Our right to superfood salads and quinoa" would further endear them to the nation at large.
    Time to give this another outing:

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=JwM9t8AFVVc
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    As the polling shows if Labour refuses to back EUref2 before Brexit Day, the LDs could see an SDP 1983 style surge leading to a similar general election
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Pulpstar said:

    I assume if seven Tories (Might be more, no point in it being less) do take this ultimate step it'll be instant deselection for them in any subsequent GE..

    I think that goes without saying.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    Pulpstar said:

    Nick Boles statement just gave Corbyn a massive reason to vote down the WA.

    Er... like he wasn't going to anyway?
    Well yes he was, but he can do so with less to worry about now.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited December 2018

    I reckon that’s at least one Tory MP who will VONC his own government over No Deal Brexit.

    Sarah Wollaston looks likely to
    https://mobile.twitter.com/sarahwollaston/status/1074706292080545792

    Nick Boles has also just said he would resign the Tory whip to vote to stop No Deal at all costs

    https://mobile.twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1075069709840801793
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    edited December 2018
    Pulpstar said:

    Nick Boles statement just gave Corbyn a massive reason to vote down the WA.

    Some things transcend politics. He is doing the right thing, Boles. I was trying to drum similar sense into you earlier but you came back with some dreary waffle about the Dark Side.

    Shape up man!
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    DanSmith said:

    Good for him. Would be great to see others saying the same.
    Soubry has agreed with him, so that's two. You'd think people like Clark, Grieve, Allen would do the same as well. And that's before you get anymore cabinet resignations.
    I think those believing No Deal is the most likely outcome need to consider this.

    There is definitely a majority in the HoC against it. The opposition parties would pretty much vote against it to a person and it seems very likely that enough Tories will vote against No Deal, even if the onlt way they can do that is through a VoNC.
    So what? ‘Not No Deal’ is not on the menu. The options are:

    May’s deal

    No deal

    Remain.

    If MPs don’t want ‘No Deal’, they should vote for the PM’s deal.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    nico67 said:

    Truly astonishing a country is acting as if it’s about to go to war and it’s peacetime !

    And apparently now Leavers voted for no deal ! The ERG and the no deal nutjobs in the cabinet are utterly loathsome and are playing with people’s livelihoods over their pathetic ideology .

    If everyone who supports no deal voted for the deal it still would not pass the Commons. They are a big part of why it won't pass, and obviously are trying to arrange no deal rather than those who just accidentally keep it open as an option, but they are not the only ones keeping that scenario alive.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786
    Pulpstar said:

    Releases all the pressure on Labour if he knows he can get Boles, Soubry and enough implied Tories to bring down their own Government.
    Unless I'm mistaken this is what Boles has just said...

    It also piles more pressure on Labour to explain how they will avoid 'no deal'. There are only two outcomes that do so.
  • DanSmith said:

    Good for him. Would be great to see others saying the same.
    Soubry has agreed with him, so that's two. You'd think people like Clark, Grieve, Allen would do the same as well. And that's before you get anymore cabinet resignations.
    I think those believing No Deal is the most likely outcome need to consider this.

    There is definitely a majority in the HoC against it. The opposition parties would pretty much vote against it to a person and it seems very likely that enough Tories will vote against No Deal, even if the onlt way they can do that is through a VoNC.
    The most likely way this will move forward is when the meaningful vote goes to the HOC and the amendments are voted on first. Grieve's stops no deal in its tracks but the interesting vote will be on accepting the deal subject to a referendum

    So many see TM snookered but do not underestimate her ability to survive
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    Bear in mind that in the 73 years since Attlee formed his government, the average PM tenure is about 5 years, so a 250/1 shot implies the sort of thing that happens less than once-a-millennium. Granted that there's much more flux at the moment and a change of PM is more likely that usual but I still think that 250/1 is more than fair.

    On which note, I would have thought the 250/1 on the Lib Dems winning Most Seats at the next election represents value. There's a fair few steps needed but they're all more than possible.
    Yes. In fact, I don't think there are all that many steps - though there are several scenarios through which it could come about. Most realistic is something similar to 1981, with mass defections from Labour to Lib Dem, which by reducing the fear of a Corbyn government then removes one of the props to the Tory vote share (especially if combined with a No Deal Brexit recession). Presumably a change of leader would need to come into the bargain.
    Yes, Brexit (whether Deal or No Deal) seen as a joint Conservative-Corbyn enterprise, new leader, perhaps a recession, and defections, perhaps from both sides.

    One potential risk is that a further step might be a rebrand and re-naming of the party. Though I'd still be arguing to get paid if it was the same legal entity.
    The simple fact that it was Cameron who called the Referendum is likely to mean that the Tories end up owning this debacle.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    HYUFD said:

    I reckon that’s at least one Tory MP who will VONC his own government over No Deal Brexit.

    Sarah Wollaston looks likely to
    Soubry, Boles, Wollaston, Grieve, Hammond (S), Johnson (J) and Allen.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    RoyalBlue said:

    DanSmith said:

    Good for him. Would be great to see others saying the same.
    Soubry has agreed with him, so that's two. You'd think people like Clark, Grieve, Allen would do the same as well. And that's before you get anymore cabinet resignations.
    I think those believing No Deal is the most likely outcome need to consider this.

    There is definitely a majority in the HoC against it. The opposition parties would pretty much vote against it to a person and it seems very likely that enough Tories will vote against No Deal, even if the onlt way they can do that is through a VoNC.
    So what? ‘Not No Deal’ is not on the menu. The options are:

    May’s deal

    No deal

    Remain.

    If MPs don’t want ‘No Deal’, they should vote for the PM’s deal.
    Except you have those who want no deal, those who want unicorns, and those who want Remain outnumbering them. It's how the unicorn believers break which is key, and they will probably break for remain and whatever method can accomplish that.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    DanSmith said:

    Good for him. Would be great to see others saying the same.
    Soubry has agreed with him, so that's two. You'd think people like Clark, Grieve, Allen would do the same as well. And that's before you get anymore cabinet resignations.
    Morgan, Wollaston, Greening are other strong candidates. Greening could probably stand as a Pro European Conservative in her seat, and win.
  • DanSmith said:

    Good for him. Would be great to see others saying the same.
    Soubry has agreed with him, so that's two. You'd think people like Clark, Grieve, Allen would do the same as well. And that's before you get anymore cabinet resignations.
    I think those believing No Deal is the most likely outcome need to consider this.

    There is definitely a majority in the HoC against it. The opposition parties would pretty much vote against it to a person and it seems very likely that enough Tories will vote against No Deal, even if the onlt way they can do that is through a VoNC.
    The problem with that is that I am not sure the government needs to submit a "No deal" bill do they? They simply allow A50 to take it's course over the cliff-edge. The only thing parliament could do to stop it is a VONC in the government.. I think. Anyone have a different view?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Bear in mind that in the 73 years since Attlee formed his government, the average PM tenure is about 5 years, so a 250/1 shot implies the sort of thing that happens less than once-a-millennium. Granted that there's much more flux at the moment and a change of PM is more likely that usual but I still think that 250/1 is more than fair.

    On which note, I would have thought the 250/1 on the Lib Dems winning Most Seats at the next election represents value. There's a fair few steps needed but they're all more than possible.
    Yes. In fact, I don't think there are all that many steps - though there are several scenarios through which it could come about. Most realistic is something similar to 1981, with mass defections from Labour to Lib Dem, which by reducing the fear of a Corbyn government then removes one of the props to the Tory vote share (especially if combined with a No Deal Brexit recession). Presumably a change of leader would need to come into the bargain.
    (Near) certainties in British politics:

    1) The DUP will never vote for that Deal
    2) The SNP will do well whenever the next GE is held

    Pretty much everything else is completely up in the air.

    But I still reckon that there's going to need to be some kind of realignment to break the impasse if No Deal is to be averted - assuming that a majority of MPs continues to shun May's Deal.

    I've assumed that this would most likely evolve out of the Labour Right and Tory Left temporarily joining forces in a panic around late February/early March time, but frankly who knows?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    As the polling shows if Labour refuses to back EUref2 before Brexit Day, the LDs could see an SDP 1983 style surge leading to a similar general election

    The SDP polled circa 12% in 1983.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    edited December 2018

    Pulpstar said:

    Nick Boles statement just gave Corbyn a massive reason to vote down the WA.

    Corbyn is the type of socialist who is quite comfortable with maximum chaos in order to pave the way for his utopia. Once again he is in good company with the headbangers of the Tory right. For this reason he will vote down anything that would lead to stability and order. He is the perfect useful idiot for Vladimir Putin, along with his fellow travellers in Momentum and the ERG.
    Indeed
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I assume if seven Tories (Might be more, no point in it being less) do take this ultimate step it'll be instant deselection for them in any subsequent GE..

    I think that goes without saying.

    They probably couldn’t give a shit. The sensible world of business will welcome them as heroes.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Nick Boles statement just gave Corbyn a massive reason to vote down the WA.

    Er... like he wasn't going to anyway?
    Releases all the pressure on Labour if he knows he can get Boles, Soubry and enough implied Tories to bring down their own Government.
    Unless I'm mistaken this is what Boles has just said...
    Indeed. He can just keep rejecting both the deal and the People's Vote campaigners arguing Tories will trigger an election. He has nothing to lose.
    May should then fight a general election on her Deal, given the pathetic Corbyn has no alternative bar petty politics and is still trailing the Tories in many polls she might even win
  • Pulpstar said:

    I assume if seven Tories (Might be more, no point in it being less) do take this ultimate step it'll be instant deselection for them in any subsequent GE..

    Yes
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    DanSmith said:

    Good for him. Would be great to see others saying the same.
    Soubry has agreed with him, so that's two. You'd think people like Clark, Grieve, Allen would do the same as well. And that's before you get anymore cabinet resignations.
    I don't think Ken Clark would ever no confidence a Conservative Gov't actually.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    SeanT said:

    Anecdote.

    My largely eurosceptic family (with a few Remainers), is remarkably relaxed about No Deal, even as they admit it could be horrible.

    "We've been through worse. Our grandparents endured the Blitz. It's not like anyone is going to invade, in living memory we had no antibiotics"..... etc etc

    I confess I am impressed by their very British stoicism and sangfroid.

    The Blitz generation may still have that stoicism but the country as a whole? - not so much. I cite as evidence the stiff upper lip attitude displayed after Princess Diana's death.
    The urban softies will panic. If indications so far are anything to go by, inside the M25 will just be a mass of soiled underwear.

    Pretty much everywhere else will shrug - and eat roadkill pheasants and badgers for a couple for weeks, until the roads around Dover get declogged.
    The notion that a country so stuffed full of food - not to mention with such an overweight citizenry - as ours might starve as a result of any likely Brexit fallout is for the birds. There's probably enough chocolate alone in British shops to provide everyone's recommended calorie intake for a month.

    But yes, I concur that upper middle class, faux Marxist North Londoners would not be at all happy in the unlikely event of being forced to live off Fray Bentos meat pies and Cadbury's Dairy Milk for a few days. Good. I'm sure that the inevitable march on Whitehall demanding "Our right to superfood salads and quinoa" would further endear them to the nation at large.
    You really are a prejudiced prick
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Anazina said:

    DanSmith said:

    Good for him. Would be great to see others saying the same.
    Soubry has agreed with him, so that's two. You'd think people like Clark, Grieve, Allen would do the same as well. And that's before you get anymore cabinet resignations.
    Morgan, Wollaston, Greening are other strong candidates. Greening could probably stand as a Pro European Conservative in her seat, and win.
    Not if there was an official Tory candidate also standing.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Anazina said:

    DanSmith said:

    Good for him. Would be great to see others saying the same.
    Soubry has agreed with him, so that's two. You'd think people like Clark, Grieve, Allen would do the same as well. And that's before you get anymore cabinet resignations.
    Morgan, Wollaston, Greening are other strong candidates. Greening could probably stand as a Pro European Conservative in her seat, and win.
    Erm, no she couldn’t.

    The minority of people who voted Leave in her constituency will have disproportionately voted for her. This is an inconvenient truth which many Europhile Tory MPs struggle with.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Nick Boles statement just gave Corbyn a massive reason to vote down the WA.

    Er... like he wasn't going to anyway?
    Releases all the pressure on Labour if he knows he can get Boles, Soubry and enough implied Tories to bring down their own Government.
    Unless I'm mistaken this is what Boles has just said...
    Indeed. He can just keep rejecting both the deal and the People's Vote campaigners arguing Tories will trigger an election. He has nothing to lose.
    May should then fight a general election on her Deal, given the pathetic Corbyn has no alternative bar petty politics and is still trailing the Tories in many polls she might even win
    You suggest this, but there's no way the Tories could line up in a GE behind a policy of backing the deal. You'd get 100 current Tory MPs refusing to do so for a start.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    Jeremy Hunt is a PM in waiting with the touch of the common man and woman.

    https://twitter.com/jeremy_hunt/status/1075069498921750528?s=21

    The only question is does he become Tory leader/PM in a coronation or landslide.

    Neither, Hunt not only polls abysmally but has shifted from backing Remain to No Deal in barely 5 minutes
  • Bear in mind that in the 73 years since Attlee formed his government, the average PM tenure is about 5 years, so a 250/1 shot implies the sort of thing that happens less than once-a-millennium. Granted that there's much more flux at the moment and a change of PM is more likely that usual but I still think that 250/1 is more than fair.

    On which note, I would have thought the 250/1 on the Lib Dems winning Most Seats at the next election represents value. There's a fair few steps needed but they're all more than possible.
    Yes. In fact, I don't think there are all that many steps - though there are several scenarios through which it could come about. Most realistic is something similar to 1981, with mass defections from Labour to Lib Dem, which by reducing the fear of a Corbyn government then removes one of the props to the Tory vote share (especially if combined with a No Deal Brexit recession). Presumably a change of leader would need to come into the bargain.
    (Near) certainties in British politics:

    1) The DUP will never vote for that Deal
    2) The SNP will do well whenever the next GE is held

    Pretty much everything else is completely up in the air.

    But I still reckon that there's going to need to be some kind of realignment to break the impasse if No Deal is to be averted - assuming that a majority of MPs continues to shun May's Deal.

    I've assumed that this would most likely evolve out of the Labour Right and Tory Left temporarily joining forces in a panic around late February/early March time, but frankly who knows?
    It takes a very unusual politician to defect. Many of them have most of their friendship/personal support groups made up of activists and others who support their parties. I would love to see a complete realignment, but of what I know about professional politicians I think it is sadly very unlikley
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,545

    DanSmith said:

    Good for him. Would be great to see others saying the same.
    Soubry has agreed with him, so that's two. You'd think people like Clark, Grieve, Allen would do the same as well. And that's before you get anymore cabinet resignations.
    I think those believing No Deal is the most likely outcome need to consider this.

    There is definitely a majority in the HoC against it. The opposition parties would pretty much vote against it to a person and it seems very likely that enough Tories will vote against No Deal, even if the onlt way they can do that is through a VoNC.
    Precisely. So the government is now ramping up panic, spending untold billions and forcing business to do the same, on an outcome most of the government believes would be disastrous and in any case will not be accepted by Parliament under any circumstances.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    edited December 2018
    Anazina said:

    SeanT said:

    Anecdote.

    My largely eurosceptic family (with a few Remainers), is remarkably relaxed about No Deal, even as they admit it could be horrible.

    "We've been through worse. Our grandparents endured the Blitz. It's not like anyone is going to invade, in living memory we had no antibiotics"..... etc etc

    I confess I am impressed by their very British stoicism and sangfroid.

    The Blitz generation may still have that stoicism but the country as a whole? - not so much. I cite as evidence the stiff upper lip attitude displayed after Princess Diana's death.
    The urban softies will panic. If indications so far are anything to go by, inside the M25 will just be a mass of soiled underwear.

    Pretty much everywhere else will shrug - and eat roadkill pheasants and badgers for a couple for weeks, until the roads around Dover get declogged.
    The notion that a country so stuffed full of food - not to mention with such an overweight citizenry - as ours might starve as a result of any likely Brexit fallout is for the birds. There's probably enough chocolate alone in British shops to provide everyone's recommended calorie intake for a month.

    But yes, I concur that upper middle class, faux Marxist North Londoners would not be at all happy in the unlikely event of being forced to live off Fray Bentos meat pies and Cadbury's Dairy Milk for a few days. Good. I'm sure that the inevitable march on Whitehall demanding "Our right to superfood salads and quinoa" would further endear them to the nation at large.
    You really are a prejudiced prick
    Good to see you are not demeaning yourself, given your high standards.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,392
    RoyalBlue said:

    DanSmith said:

    Good for him. Would be great to see others saying the same.
    Soubry has agreed with him, so that's two. You'd think people like Clark, Grieve, Allen would do the same as well. And that's before you get anymore cabinet resignations.
    I think those believing No Deal is the most likely outcome need to consider this.

    There is definitely a majority in the HoC against it. The opposition parties would pretty much vote against it to a person and it seems very likely that enough Tories will vote against No Deal, even if the onlt way they can do that is through a VoNC.
    So what? ‘Not No Deal’ is not on the menu. The options are:

    May’s deal

    No deal

    Remain.

    If MPs don’t want ‘No Deal’, they should vote for the PM’s deal.
    If MPs want a better deal they should give Starmer a crack at negotiating one.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    Big Tory Maj if the country goes to the polls I reckon :). They'll swallow the leave vote whole if they go for no deal.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    Bear in mind that in the 73 years since Attlee formed his government, the average PM tenure is about 5 years, so a 250/1 shot implies the sort of thing that happens less than once-a-millennium. Granted that there's much more flux at the moment and a change of PM is more likely that usual but I still think that 250/1 is more than fair.

    On which note, I would have thought the 250/1 on the Lib Dems winning Most Seats at the next election represents value. There's a fair few steps needed but they're all more than possible.
    Yes. In fact, I don't think there are all that many steps - though there are several scenarios through which it could come about. Most realistic is something similar to 1981, with mass defections from Labour to Lib Dem, which by reducing the fear of a Corbyn government then removes one of the props to the Tory vote share (especially if combined with a No Deal Brexit recession). Presumably a change of leader would need to come into the bargain.
    (Near) certainties in British politics:

    1) The DUP will never vote for that Deal
    2) The SNP will do well whenever the next GE is held

    Pretty much everything else is completely up in the air.

    But I still reckon that there's going to need to be some kind of realignment to break the impasse if No Deal is to be averted - assuming that a majority of MPs continues to shun May's Deal.

    I've assumed that this would most likely evolve out of the Labour Right and Tory Left temporarily joining forces in a panic around late February/early March time, but frankly who knows?
    Depends what you mean by the SNP doing'well'. I doubt they will poll better than circa 33% next time.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074

    Pulpstar said:

    Nick Boles statement just gave Corbyn a massive reason to vote down the WA.

    Corbyn is the type of socialist who is quite comfortable with maximum chaos in order to pave the way for his utopia. Once again he is in good company with the headbangers of the Tory right. For this reason he will vote down anything that would lead to stability and order. He is the perfect useful idiot for Vladimir Putin, along with his fellow travellers in Momentum and the ERG.
    Indeed
    It is May who is playing chicken with the country’s future, by closing off all options other than her wretched deal. And why? To prove that she’s right. Neither she nor Corbyn are putting the country’s interests first.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    SeanT said:

    Anecdote.

    My largely eurosceptic family (with a few Remainers), is remarkably relaxed about No Deal, even as they admit it could be horrible.

    "We've been through worse. Our grandparents endured the Blitz. It's not like anyone is going to invade, in living memory we had no antibiotics"..... etc etc

    I confess I am impressed by their very British stoicism and sangfroid.

    The Blitz generation may still have that stoicism but the country as a whole? - not so much. I cite as evidence the stiff upper lip attitude displayed after Princess Diana's death.
    The urban softies will panic. If indications so far are anything to go by, inside the M25 will just be a mass of soiled underwear.

    Pretty much everywhere else will shrug - and eat roadkill pheasants and badgers for a couple for weeks, until the roads around Dover get declogged.
    The notion that a country so stuffed full of food - not to mention with such an overweight citizenry - as ours might starve as a result of any likely Brexit fallout is for the birds. There's probably enough chocolate alone in British shops to provide everyone's recommended calorie intake for a month.

    But yes, I concur that upper middle class, faux Marxist North Londoners would not be at all happy in the unlikely event of being forced to live off Fray Bentos meat pies and Cadbury's Dairy Milk for a few days. Good. I'm sure that the inevitable march on Whitehall demanding "Our right to superfood salads and quinoa" would further endear them to the nation at large.
    So we can now count our adipose fat tissues as a way of coping with Brexit? It is all beginning to make sense.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Pulpstar said:

    Big Tory Maj if the country goes to the polls I reckon :). They'll swallow the leave vote whole if they go for no deal.

    Not my leave vote.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786

    (Near) certainties in British politics:

    1) The DUP will never vote for that Deal

    Where would 'no deal' leave the DUP?

    image
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    RoyalBlue said:

    DanSmith said:

    Good for him. Would be great to see others saying the same.
    Soubry has agreed with him, so that's two. You'd think people like Clark, Grieve, Allen would do the same as well. And that's before you get anymore cabinet resignations.
    I think those believing No Deal is the most likely outcome need to consider this.

    There is definitely a majority in the HoC against it. The opposition parties would pretty much vote against it to a person and it seems very likely that enough Tories will vote against No Deal, even if the onlt way they can do that is through a VoNC.
    So what? ‘Not No Deal’ is not on the menu. The options are:

    May’s deal

    No deal

    Remain.

    If MPs don’t want ‘No Deal’, they should vote for the PM’s deal.
    If MPs want a better deal they should give Starmer a crack at negotiating one.
    Worth a try. Let him and Labour negotiate something, then give MPs the choice which to back. If Labour's wins they get their election.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    DanSmith said:

    Good for him. Would be great to see others saying the same.
    Soubry has agreed with him, so that's two. You'd think people like Clark, Grieve, Allen would do the same as well. And that's before you get anymore cabinet resignations.
    I think those believing No Deal is the most likely outcome need to consider this.

    There is definitely a majority in the HoC against it. The opposition parties would pretty much vote against it to a person and it seems very likely that enough Tories will vote against No Deal, even if the onlt way they can do that is through a VoNC.
    The most likely way this will move forward is when the meaningful vote goes to the HOC and the amendments are voted on first. Grieve's stops no deal in its tracks but the interesting vote will be on accepting the deal subject to a referendum

    So many see TM snookered but do not underestimate her ability to survive
    As has been pointed out several times, a referendum cannot be legislated via an amendment.

    Its as Pie in the Sky as the wacky 'promise Labour a GE in return for their votes'. A general election is not in the gift of the Govt any more.
  • HYUFD said:

    Jeremy Hunt is a PM in waiting with the touch of the common man and woman.

    https://twitter.com/jeremy_hunt/status/1075069498921750528?s=21

    The only question is does he become Tory leader/PM in a coronation or landslide.

    Neither, Hunt not only polls abysmally but has shifted from backing Remain to No Deal in barely 5 minutes
    Yes, he has as much political integrity as Boris Johnson, but without the apparent charisma and wondering sexual appetites ( the latter as far as we know).
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Eat drink and be merry for tomorrow we Brexit.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Pulpstar said:

    Big Tory Maj if the country goes to the polls I reckon :). They'll swallow the leave vote whole if they go for no deal.

    Codswallop! It wouldn't even turn out to be a Brexit election - most people are sick of the subject and want to consider other issues.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Big Tory Maj if the country goes to the polls I reckon :). They'll swallow the leave vote whole if they go for no deal.

    Not my leave vote.
    I think most PBers votes are sui generis
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786
    Mortimer said:

    DanSmith said:

    Good for him. Would be great to see others saying the same.
    Soubry has agreed with him, so that's two. You'd think people like Clark, Grieve, Allen would do the same as well. And that's before you get anymore cabinet resignations.
    I think those believing No Deal is the most likely outcome need to consider this.

    There is definitely a majority in the HoC against it. The opposition parties would pretty much vote against it to a person and it seems very likely that enough Tories will vote against No Deal, even if the onlt way they can do that is through a VoNC.
    The most likely way this will move forward is when the meaningful vote goes to the HOC and the amendments are voted on first. Grieve's stops no deal in its tracks but the interesting vote will be on accepting the deal subject to a referendum

    So many see TM snookered but do not underestimate her ability to survive
    As has been pointed out several times, a referendum cannot be legislated via an amendment.

    Its as Pie in the Sky as the wacky 'promise Labour a GE in return for their votes'. A general election is not in the gift of the Govt any more.
    A referendum can't be legislated via an amendment, but it can be mandated by one.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    edited December 2018
    Cyclefree said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Nick Boles statement just gave Corbyn a massive reason to vote down the WA.

    Corbyn is the type of socialist who is quite comfortable with maximum chaos in order to pave the way for his utopia. Once again he is in good company with the headbangers of the Tory right. For this reason he will vote down anything that would lead to stability and order. He is the perfect useful idiot for Vladimir Putin, along with his fellow travellers in Momentum and the ERG.
    Indeed
    It is May who is playing chicken with the country’s future, by closing off all options other than her wretched deal. And why? To prove that she’s right. Neither she nor Corbyn are putting the country’s interests first.
    She hasn't closed off any options. MPs have the ability to remove her anytime they want and we are assured parliament at least has a majority against what she wants so that should not be hard. People moaning she won't do what they want is one of the least convincing outrages out there at the moment, a figleaf, and I think she's doing both a bad job and should do other things.
  • HYUFD said:

    Jeremy Hunt is a PM in waiting with the touch of the common man and woman.

    https://twitter.com/jeremy_hunt/status/1075069498921750528?s=21

    The only question is does he become Tory leader/PM in a coronation or landslide.

    Neither, Hunt not only polls abysmally but has shifted from backing Remain to No Deal in barely 5 minutes
    Yes, he has as much political integrity as Boris Johnson, but without the apparent charisma and wondering sexual appetites ( the latter as far as we know).
    Jeremy Hunt: Greater love hath no man than he lay down his principles for his career
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    Bear in mind that in the 73 years since Attlee formed his government, the average PM tenure is about 5 years, so a 250/1 shot implies the sort of thing that happens less than once-a-millennium. Granted that there's much more flux at the moment and a change of PM is more likely that usual but I still think that 250/1 is more than fair.

    On which note, I would have thought the 250/1 on the Lib Dems winning Most Seats at the next election represents value. There's a fair few steps needed but they're all more than possible.
    Yes. In fact, I don't think there are all that many steps - though there are several scenarios through which it could come about. Most realistic is something similar to 1981, with mass defections from Labour to Lib Dem, which by reducing the fear of a Corbyn government then removes one of the props to the Tory vote share (especially if combined with a No Deal Brexit recession). Presumably a change of leader would need to come into the bargain.
    (Near) certainties in British politics:

    1) The DUP will never vote for that Deal
    2) The SNP will do well whenever the next GE is held

    Pretty much everything else is completely up in the air.

    But I still reckon that there's going to need to be some kind of realignment to break the impasse if No Deal is to be averted - assuming that a majority of MPs continues to shun May's Deal.

    I've assumed that this would most likely evolve out of the Labour Right and Tory Left temporarily joining forces in a panic around late February/early March time, but frankly who knows?
    It takes a very unusual politician to defect. Many of them have most of their friendship/personal support groups made up of activists and others who support their parties. I would love to see a complete realignment, but of what I know about professional politicians I think it is sadly very unlikley
    Well some 25 Labour MPs did precisely that in 1981/82 - as did one Tory.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    RobD said:

    I just want to reiterate:

    THERESA MAY IS ACTIVELY PIVOTING TOWARDS NO DEAL.

    The Prime Minister has lost her fucking mind.

    Toward no deal being the only viable alternative, increasing the likelihood of hers being signed?
    I think it clear that Parliament will, under no circumstances, give in to such pathetic blackmail.

    If we go over the cliff edge, it is because Mrs May chooses to let us. And May is basically giving Corbyn his dream outcome...

    Go ahead, Theresa. DO IT, I double dare you.
    No, May has produced a Deal after much work, the pathetic Corbyn refuses to back it though his own policy is indistinguishable. If we go to No Deal it will be the fault of Corbyn, the DUP and ERG
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Another day, another instalment of Project Fear and watch how frightened everyone gets as soon as the Army gets mentioned.

    Calculated nonsense aimed at panicking frightened people into signing up to May's Deal. All she and her allies have now is fear and they are hoping a couple of weeks of this propaganda will do the job.

    There's nothing that can't be arranged or sorted in plenty of time (and would have been if this group of dullards had considered the most elementary contingency planning).

    No one is going to starve, run out of medicines or be stopped from going anywhere. A great man once said the only thing we have to fear is fear itself. Nowadays, the only weapon a bad politician has is fear.

    Project Fear's predictions are obviously ridiculous.

    As you say, food and medicines will still make their way to the United Kingdom, and people will not starve.

    But by attacking only the most extreme of Project Fear's prognostications, there is a tendency to pretend that there will be no ill effects whatsoever from crashing out.

    Now, there is a genuine debate to be had about whether the costs of a sudden separation are worth the benefits. But I'm not seeing that debate. I'm seeing two sides: one which pretends there are no consequences from crashing out, and one which forecasts armageddon. That's not a healthy debate, and it's not conducive to good policy making.
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634
    HYUFD said:

    I reckon that’s at least one Tory MP who will VONC his own government over No Deal Brexit.

    Sarah Wollaston looks likely to
    https://mobile.twitter.com/sarahwollaston/status/1074706292080545792

    Nick Boles has also just said he would resign the Tory whip to vote to stop No Deal at all costs

    https://mobile.twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1075069709840801793
    "No Deal" doesn't need to become government policy to happen.
  • rcs1000 said:

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Another day, another instalment of Project Fear and watch how frightened everyone gets as soon as the Army gets mentioned.

    Calculated nonsense aimed at panicking frightened people into signing up to May's Deal. All she and her allies have now is fear and they are hoping a couple of weeks of this propaganda will do the job.

    There's nothing that can't be arranged or sorted in plenty of time (and would have been if this group of dullards had considered the most elementary contingency planning).

    No one is going to starve, run out of medicines or be stopped from going anywhere. A great man once said the only thing we have to fear is fear itself. Nowadays, the only weapon a bad politician has is fear.

    Project Fear's predictions are obviously ridiculous.

    As you say, food and medicines will still make their way to the United Kingdom, and people will not starve.

    But by attacking only the most extreme of Project Fear's prognostications, there is a tendency to pretend that there will be no ill effects whatsoever from crashing out.

    Now, there is a genuine debate to be had about whether the costs of a sudden separation are worth the benefits. But I'm not seeing that debate. I'm seeing two sides: one which pretends there are no consequences from crashing out, and one which forecasts armageddon. That's not a healthy debate, and it's not conducive to good policy making.
    We had that debate in 2016, your side won.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    justin124 said:

    Bear in mind that in the 73 years since Attlee formed his government, the average PM tenure is about 5 years, so a 250/1 shot implies the sort of thing that happens less than once-a-millennium. Granted that there's much more flux at the moment and a change of PM is more likely that usual but I still think that 250/1 is more than fair.

    On which note, I would have thought the 250/1 on the Lib Dems winning Most Seats at the next election represents value. There's a fair few steps needed but they're all more than possible.
    Yes. In fact, I don't think there are all that many steps - though there are several scenarios through which it could come about. Most realistic is something similar to 1981, with mass defections from Labour to Lib Dem, which by reducing the fear of a Corbyn government then removes one of the props to the Tory vote share (especially if combined with a No Deal Brexit recession). Presumably a change of leader would need to come into the bargain.
    (Near) certainties in British politics:

    1) The DUP will never vote for that Deal
    2) The SNP will do well whenever the next GE is held

    Pretty much everything else is completely up in the air.

    But I still reckon that there's going to need to be some kind of realignment to break the impasse if No Deal is to be averted - assuming that a majority of MPs continues to shun May's Deal.

    I've assumed that this would most likely evolve out of the Labour Right and Tory Left temporarily joining forces in a panic around late February/early March time, but frankly who knows?
    It takes a very unusual politician to defect. Many of them have most of their friendship/personal support groups made up of activists and others who support their parties. I would love to see a complete realignment, but of what I know about professional politicians I think it is sadly very unlikley
    Well some 25 Labour MPs did precisely that in 1981/82 - as did one Tory.
    A long long time ago, and the contortions individuals have undertaken to avoid doing the same since shows just how unlikely it is now.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    RoyalBlue said:

    DanSmith said:

    Good for him. Would be great to see others saying the same.
    Soubry has agreed with him, so that's two. You'd think people like Clark, Grieve, Allen would do the same as well. And that's before you get anymore cabinet resignations.
    I think those believing No Deal is the most likely outcome need to consider this.

    There is definitely a majority in the HoC against it. The opposition parties would pretty much vote against it to a person and it seems very likely that enough Tories will vote against No Deal, even if the onlt way they can do that is through a VoNC.
    So what? ‘Not No Deal’ is not on the menu. The options are:

    May’s deal

    No deal

    Remain.

    If MPs don’t want ‘No Deal’, they should vote for the PM’s deal.
    If MPs want a better deal they should give Starmer a crack at negotiating one.
    The only price being that we put a man who hates his own country into 10 Downing Street?

    No thanks.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    Scott_P said:

    SeanT said:


    "We've been through worse. Our grandparents endured the Blitz.

    Anyone who says "we have been through worse" without fail means "someone else went through worse"

    Yes, and they were bloody miserable...
    Also, I think it's fair to say, WWII wasn't entirely self-inflicted.
    Sometimes I wonder whether we like sometimes to suffer.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Nick Boles statement just gave Corbyn a massive reason to vote down the WA.

    Er... like he wasn't going to anyway?
    Releases all the pressure on Labour if he knows he can get Boles, Soubry and enough implied Tories to bring down their own Government.
    Unless I'm mistaken this is what Boles has just said...
    A

    Indeed. He can just keep rejecting both the deal and the People's Vote campaigners arguing Tories will trigger an election. He has nothing to lose.
    May should then fight a general election on her Deal, given the pathetic Corbyn has no alternative bar petty politics and is still trailing the Tories in many polls she might even win
    You suggest this, but there's no way the Tories could line up in a GE behind a policy of backing the deal. You'd get 100 current Tory MPs refusing to do so for a start.
    Not to mention May would witter on about her deal, while Corbyn would talk about everything other than Brexit.
    So, like last time. Only this time, many, many Tory PPCs will be on record saying what a poor deal they are campaigning for.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    I don't remember this, fascinating outcome
    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1075080317524955139
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    HYUFD said:

    Jeremy Hunt is a PM in waiting with the touch of the common man and woman.

    https://twitter.com/jeremy_hunt/status/1075069498921750528?s=21

    The only question is does he become Tory leader/PM in a coronation or landslide.

    Neither, Hunt not only polls abysmally but has shifted from backing Remain to No Deal in barely 5 minutes
    Yes, he has as much political integrity as Boris Johnson, but without the apparent charisma and wondering sexual appetites ( the latter as far as we know).
    At least Boris backed Leave before the referendum, unlike Hunt who seems to be a 'Born Again' Hard Brexiteer No Dealer despite backing Remain in 2016
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    I KNEW those that VONCed May and those that did not in the recent election would flip their positions !!!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,558

    Jeremy Hunt is a PM in waiting with the touch of the common man and woman.

    https://twitter.com/jeremy_hunt/status/1075069498921750528?s=21

    ...

    Britannia Hospital ?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    F
    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Nick Boles statement just gave Corbyn a massive reason to vote down the WA.

    Corbyn is the type of socialist who is quite comfortable with maximum chaos in order to pave the way for his utopia. Once again he is in good company with the headbangers of the Tory right. For this reason he will vote down anything that would lead to stability and order. He is the perfect useful idiot for Vladimir Putin, along with his fellow travellers in Momentum and the ERG.
    Indeed
    It is May who is playing chicken with the country’s future, by closing off all options other than her wretched deal. And why? To prove that she’s right. Neither she nor Corbyn are putting the country’s interests first.
    She hasn't closed off any options. MPs have the ability to remove her anytime they want and we are assured parliament at least has a majority against what she wants so that should not be hard. People moaning she won't do what they want is one of the least convincing outrages out there at the moment, a figleaf, and I think she's doing both a bad job and should do other things.
    She can’t get her deal through. The EU says the negotiations are done.

    She has ruled out revocation and a further referendum.

    Yes - I’d say she’s closing off options.

    She has put her survival and that of her deal above all other considerations. That is not the mark of a politician acting in the country’s interests.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    TOPPING said:

    Tesco chairman on R4 saying how Tesco will stockpile food ahead of March.

    Billions and billions of pounds of stock.

    Which, it must be noted, will boost UK GDP in the short term.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited December 2018
    Donny43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    I reckon that’s at least one Tory MP who will VONC his own government over No Deal Brexit.

    Sarah Wollaston looks likely to
    https://mobile.twitter.com/sarahwollaston/status/1074706292080545792

    Nick Boles has also just said he would resign the Tory whip to vote to stop No Deal at all costs

    https://mobile.twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1075069709840801793
    "No Deal" doesn't need to become government policy to happen.
    No but if enough Tory MPs VONC the government as tonight seems possible there will a general election and the voters will decide if they wish to proceed with No Deal or not
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835

    SeanT said:

    Anecdote.

    My largely eurosceptic family (with a few Remainers), is remarkably relaxed about No Deal, even as they admit it could be horrible.

    "We've been through worse. Our grandparents endured the Blitz. It's not like anyone is going to invade, in living memory we had no antibiotics"..... etc etc

    I confess I am impressed by their very British stoicism and sangfroid.

    The Blitz generation may still have that stoicism but the country as a whole? - not so much. I cite as evidence the stiff upper lip attitude displayed after Princess Diana's death.
    The urban softies will panic. If indications so far are anything to go by, inside the M25 will just be a mass of soiled underwear.

    Pretty much everywhere else will shrug - and eat roadkill pheasants and badgers for a couple for weeks, until the roads around Dover get declogged.
    The notion that a country so stuffed full of food - not to mention with such an overweight citizenry - as ours might starve as a result of any likely Brexit fallout is for the birds. There's probably enough chocolate alone in British shops to provide everyone's recommended calorie intake for a month.

    But yes, I concur that upper middle class, faux Marxist North Londoners would not be at all happy in the unlikely event of being forced to live off Fray Bentos meat pies and Cadbury's Dairy Milk for a few days. Good. I'm sure that the inevitable march on Whitehall demanding "Our right to superfood salads and quinoa" would further endear them to the nation at large.
    So we can now count our adipose fat tissues as a way of coping with Brexit? It is all beginning to make sense.
    Methinks I will regret having lost 4 stone this year...
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,545
    So are we supposed to believe that as the cliff edge approaches, businesses are screaming blue murder and supermarkets are besieged by panic buyers the government is going to tell parliament to FO and push the country over the edge?

    Such a course might be legally acceptable but it is not politically possible.
  • Pulpstar said:


    i) Lady Hermon, Caroline Flint, Stephen Lloyd, Ken Clarke & the SDLP

    To be fair you could probably add some Labour MPS, a fair few Tory MPs and some of the Tory Cabinet including people like Gove.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    justin124 said:

    Bear in mind that in the 73 years since Attlee formed his government, the average PM tenure is about 5 years, so a 250/1 shot implies the sort of thing that happens less than once-a-millennium. Granted that there's much more flux at the moment and a change of PM is more likely that usual but I still think that 250/1 is more than fair.

    On which note, I would have thought the 250/1 on the Lib Dems winning Most Seats at the next election represents value. There's a fair few steps needed but they're all more than possible.
    Yes. In fact, I don't think there are all that many steps - though there are several scenarios through which it could come about. Most realistic is something similar to 1981, with mass defections from Labour to Lib Dem, which by reducing the fear of a Corbyn government then removes one of the props to the Tory vote share (especially if combined with a No Deal Brexit recession). Presumably a change of leader would need to come into the bargain.
    (Near) certainties in British politics:

    1) The DUP will never vote for that Deal
    2) The SNP will do well whenever the next GE is held

    Pretty much everything else is completely up in the air.

    But I still reckon that there's going to need to be some kind of realignment to break the impasse if No Deal is to be averted - assuming that a majority of MPs continues to shun May's Deal.

    I've assumed that this would most likely evolve out of the Labour Right and Tory Left temporarily joining forces in a panic around late February/early March time, but frankly who knows?
    Depends what you mean by the SNP doing'well'. I doubt they will poll better than circa 33% next time.
    If we go to No Deal Scotland could be independent by next time
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