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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It looks as though there could be by-election in an ultra marg

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited December 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It looks as though there could be by-election in an ultra marginal gained by LAB from CON at GE17

Fiona Onasanya: Peterborough MP guilty in speeding case – Could be by-election in seat gained by LAB from CON at GE17https://t.co/TetDWtgYmR

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • First! Like Leave & Mrs May...
  • One 60th of a minute
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 6,600
    What a silly .... err person
  • I still consider the result in Peterborough 2017 as Tory gain
  • My first has been deleted.... Where's lady chakrabati to look into this abuse
  • Do the Tories have a candidate selected for the constituency?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 24,091
    Maybe UKIP leader Gerard Batten might be tempted to stand if there's a by-election. The party has some potential in the constituency — the 2014 Euro result was as follows: UKIP 15379, Con 11744, Lab 11526, Greens 2597, LD 2089.

    https://www.peterborough.gov.uk/council/elections/previous-elections-results/
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 6,600

    Do the Tories have a candidate selected for the constituency?

    Yes

    https://order-order.com/2018/12/19/fiona-onasanya-guilty-perverting-course-justice/
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 24,091
    Floater said:

    Do the Tories have a candidate selected for the constituency?

    Yes

    https://order-order.com/2018/12/19/fiona-onasanya-guilty-perverting-course-justice/
    Unluckily for Labour, it isn't Stewart Jackson.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 6,600

    My first has been deleted.... Where's lady chakrabati to look into this abuse

    No, we need someone independent to adjudicate... like TSE
  • My first has been deleted.... Where's lady chakrabati to look into this abuse

    So who do you want as Spurs manager when Poch does one to Man U or Real next summer?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 35,346
    Oooo, a marginal!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 24,363

    WRT sentencing, there are three aggravating factors (abuse of a position of trust, absence of contrition, failure to co-operate with the authorities) and no mitigating factors that I can think of.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 24,091
    RobD said:

    Oooo, a marginal!

    We haven't had a by-election in a classic Lab/Tory marginal for a long time AFAIK.
  • FPT: Mr. Eagles, ah. Cheers for that answer.

    I wonder if Farage/Banks are ready to go if a by-election occurs.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 16,100
    fpt

    TOPPING said:

    Alistair said:

    Whilst all the arguments rage (or whimper?) about what one adult may or may not have said to another adult, I notice the EU have published their No Deal Brexit plans this morning which seem on face value to deal with a lot of the concerns about immediate impacts.


    So.

    UK flights will be allowed to operate into and out of the EU.

    No, the deal was UK operated flights could make technical stops in the EU without restriction. Technical stops do not allow passengers to board or disembark.

    To actually fly passengers to/from locations UK operated flights would have to apply for permission.
    That is not what is being reported by any of the news agencies (I still haven't found a link ti the actual document.) They are saying that flights continue between the UK and EU as normal but UK airlines will not be operate flights within the EU.
    Haven't looked any further than the front page.

    europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-18-6851_en.htm
    This Q & A is quite useful for seeing what exactly would happen:

    https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/contingency-qanda_en.pdf

    In case of no deal, the Commission is proposing that "point-to-point" flight connections, i.e. connections from the territory of the United Kingdom to the territory of the EU27, are temporarily allowed on the basis of a unilateral measure. This measure will enter into force in case of no deal, if the United Kingdom reciprocates, and last until 30 March 2020.

    If I understand correctly, this may not cover onward flights, though, and intra-EU flights are definitely not covered.
    Thanks.

    As I read it, they are imposing an effective shortened transition period. After that, well I suppose they would roll over the terms in all practicality. And it seems very skewed towards the UK being compliant with EU regs.

    No issue with the backstop on account of the "all relevant EU legislation on the importation and exportation of goods will apply to goods moving between the EU and the UK" clause.

    Do we know what the ERG have said? What about @RichieTyndall, perhaps forthcoming Independent candidate in Peterborough?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 9,839
    AndyJS said:

    RobD said:

    Oooo, a marginal!

    We haven't had a by-election in a classic Lab/Tory marginal for a long time AFAIK.
    Copeland?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 6,600
    I see she tried the Jezbollah defence

    "It was then suggested she might have been in the car but not driving."

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 15,368
    AndyJS said:

    RobD said:

    Oooo, a marginal!

    We haven't had a by-election in a classic Lab/Tory marginal for a long time AFAIK.
    Does Copeland count?

    The law of unintended consequences springs to mind with that one...most Pyrrhic victory since at least the Alamo and possibly Ascalum.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 24,091
    tlg86 said:

    AndyJS said:

    RobD said:

    Oooo, a marginal!

    We haven't had a by-election in a classic Lab/Tory marginal for a long time AFAIK.
    Copeland?
    Yes I'd forgotten about that one, although the seat was Labour for about 100 years until recently, so it wasn't a seat that had historically swung between the parties over the years. Peterborough had the closest result in the country in 1966 I think.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 15,368
    Floater said:

    I see she tried the Jezbollah defence

    "It was then suggested she might have been in the car but not driving."

    She made a Huhne of herself with that one...
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 24,363
    Sean_F said:


    WRT sentencing, there are three aggravating factors (abuse of a position of trust, absence of contrition, failure to co-operate with the authorities) and no mitigating factors that I can think of.

    Also, she'll be struck off.
  • In the car but not driving sounds like a passenger whilst Mr. Bean sits atop the roof in an armchair :p
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 6,600
    Sean_F said:


    WRT sentencing, there are three aggravating factors (abuse of a position of trust, absence of contrition, failure to co-operate with the authorities) and no mitigating factors that I can think of.

    Didn't she also try to throw her brother under the bus?

    oh yes she did

    "Prosecutor David Jeremy, QC, suggested that would have been 'totally redundant' because she knew full well that it was her all along and accused her of 'sacrificing' Festus during her second trial to get herself acquitted.

    He told jurors the MP had 'invented' a telephone conversation with her brother in which he confessed to filling in the form out and sending it off without her knowledge 'to plug that gap' in her earlier account."
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 15,368
    AndyJS said:

    tlg86 said:

    AndyJS said:

    RobD said:

    Oooo, a marginal!

    We haven't had a by-election in a classic Lab/Tory marginal for a long time AFAIK.
    Copeland?
    Yes I'd forgotten about that one, although the seat was Labour for about 100 years until recently, so it wasn't a seat that had historically swung between the parties over the years. Peterborough had the closest result in the country in 1966 I think.
    Since 1935, to be exact.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited December 2018
    The Tory candidate is an ultra-Brexiteer and has been violently rude about May's deal many times on Twitter.

    Exactly what neither party wants, a by election that becomes a referendum on Brexit.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 6,600
    Anyway, no one can claim politics is boring right now......
  • Floater said:

    Do the Tories have a candidate selected for the constituency?

    Yes

    https://order-order.com/2018/12/19/fiona-onasanya-guilty-perverting-course-justice/
    Cheers
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 6,600

    The Tory candidate is an ultra-Brexiteer and has been violently rude about May's deal many times on Twitter.

    Exactly what neither party wants, a by election that becomes a referendum on Brexit.

    There should only be 2 candidates and the result should be 52 / 48 - then we can re run it until the result is overturned.....
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 2,128

    The Tory candidate is an ultra-Brexiteer and has been violently rude about May's deal many times on Twitter.

    Exactly what neither party wants, a by election that becomes a referendum on Brexit.

    Awesome :)

    The first part rather than the second part.
  • Labour have contrived to have a week of car crashes with a botched vnoc, Corbyn squirming on whether he did or did not say stupid woman to the PM, and one of their mps found guilty of perverting the course of justice
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 49,035
    Emergency debate for Starmer to chunter on about Brexit some more.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 15,368

    Labour have contrived to have a week of car crashes with a botched vnoc, Corbyn squirming on whether he did or did not say stupid woman to the PM, and one of their mps found guilty of perverting the course of justice

    I think it's fair to say it's been one of their less effective weeks.
  • TOPPING said:

    fpt

    TOPPING said:

    Alistair said:

    Whilst all the arguments rage (or whimper?) about what one adult may or may not have said to another adult, I notice the EU have published their No Deal Brexit plans this morning which seem on face value to deal with a lot of the concerns about immediate impacts.


    So.

    UK flights will be allowed to operate into and out of the EU.

    No, the deal was UK operated flights could make technical stops in the EU without restriction. Technical stops do not allow passengers to board or disembark.

    To actually fly passengers to/from locations UK operated flights would have to apply for permission.
    That is not what is being reported by any of the news agencies (I still haven't found a link ti the actual document.) They are saying that flights continue between the UK and EU as normal but UK airlines will not be operate flights within the EU.
    Haven't looked any further than the front page.

    europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-18-6851_en.htm
    This Q & A is quite useful for seeing what exactly would happen:

    https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/contingency-qanda_en.pdf

    In case of no deal, the Commission is proposing that "point-to-point" flight connections, i.e. connections from the territory of the United Kingdom to the territory of the EU27, are temporarily allowed on the basis of a unilateral measure. This measure will enter into force in case of no deal, if the United Kingdom reciprocates, and last until 30 March 2020.

    If I understand correctly, this may not cover onward flights, though, and intra-EU flights are definitely not covered.
    Thanks.

    As I read it, they are imposing an effective shortened transition period. After that, well I suppose they would roll over the terms in all practicality. And it seems very skewed towards the UK being compliant with EU regs.

    No issue with the backstop on account of the "all relevant EU legislation on the importation and exportation of goods will apply to goods moving between the EU and the UK" clause.

    Do we know what the ERG have said? What about @RichieTyndall, perhaps forthcoming Independent candidate in Peterborough?
    LOL. Er no. I would never stand for public office.

    On the EU provisions I have not been able to yet find the official EU text so I am wary of any exact interpretations. It does seem to raise some interesting questions in so far as it does appear at first glance to mitigate some of the issues which have been raised about a No Deal Brexit.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 24,363
    Floater said:

    Sean_F said:


    WRT sentencing, there are three aggravating factors (abuse of a position of trust, absence of contrition, failure to co-operate with the authorities) and no mitigating factors that I can think of.

    Didn't she also try to throw her brother under the bus?

    oh yes she did

    "Prosecutor David Jeremy, QC, suggested that would have been 'totally redundant' because she knew full well that it was her all along and accused her of 'sacrificing' Festus during her second trial to get herself acquitted.

    He told jurors the MP had 'invented' a telephone conversation with her brother in which he confessed to filling in the form out and sending it off without her knowledge 'to plug that gap' in her earlier account."
    Yes, perjuring herself during the trial will be a further aggravating factor, though to an extent it overlaps with the second and third above.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 3,273
    edited December 2018

    The Tory candidate is an ultra-Brexiteer and has been violently rude about May's deal many times on Twitter.

    Exactly what neither party wants, a by election that becomes a referendum on Brexit.

    Oh dear. Are Cabinet ministers going to be ordered out on the stump for a PPC badmouthing their boss? And the government's only policy?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 713
    Gosh just read the details of the case. Merits some porridge. What a stupid woman!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 38,291
    edited December 2018
    Nigelb said:

    Barnesian said:

    justin124 said:

    I could not care less whether Corbyn said it or not. Even if he did , half the country is likely to agree with him. Now had he called her a 'silly F..... Cow' - that would have been a different matter!

    You may not care but the PR for Corbyn is dreadful and the story has more to come
    How do you know it's dreadful?

    I agree with Justin. Having just caught up with this story and watched Mrs May's peculiar panto rant, my instant thought was ""stupid woman". I could actually have been ruder. If it had been a man, I would have thought "stupid prick". Then I saw Corbyn mouth something similar and thought "you're right".

    I don't know whether the offence is to describe her as stupid or describe her as a woman. PC storm in a teacup brewed up by Corbyn haters.
    The point is surely that it is at complete odds with his right-on PC image ?

    If, in the public sphere, you can only refrain from what you yourself would describe as sexism when dealing with people you approve of, then your criticism of your opponents for similar offences looks like rank hypocrisy.

    Equally, in Bercow's case, he has a tendency to assert rules of decorum only when it suits him.

    (And for the record, I was not impressed in the slightest by May's rather abject performance.)
    The point is as simple as he would not accept a defence if a tory said it, not in a million years. So it matters if he said it. On that score apparently it's ambiguous enough he should be fine

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 13,145
    It is remarkable the risks people will take just to avoid a few points on their license.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 38,291
    edited December 2018
    At last, another by election in an interesting seat. Usually they are in very safe seats. How brexity is the Tory candidate? Could be crucial, but usually you go with the national opposition.
  • TOPPING said:

    Alistair said:

    Whilst all the arguments rage (or whimper?) about what one adult may or may not have said to another adult, I notice the EU have published their No Deal Brexit plans this morning which seem on face value to deal with a lot of the concerns about immediate impacts.


    So.

    UK flights will be allowed to operate into and out of the EU.

    No, the deal was UK operated flights could make technical stops in the EU without restriction. Technical stops do not allow passengers to board or disembark.

    To actually fly passengers to/from locations UK operated flights would have to apply for permission.
    That is not what is being reported by any of the news agencies (I still haven't found a link ti the actual document.) They are saying that flights continue between the UK and EU as normal but UK airlines will not be operate flights within the EU.
    Haven't looked any further than the front page.

    europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-18-6851_en.htm
    This Q & A is quite useful for seeing what exactly would happen:

    https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/contingency-qanda_en.pdf

    In case of no deal, the Commission is proposing that "point-to-point" flight connections, i.e. connections from the territory of the United Kingdom to the territory of the EU27, are temporarily allowed on the basis of a unilateral measure. This measure will enter into force in case of no deal, if the United Kingdom reciprocates, and last until 30 March 2020.

    If I understand correctly, this may not cover onward flights, though, and intra-EU flights are definitely not covered.
    There are currently no 'Fifth Freedom' flights from the UK into the EU - and most of the 'Fifth Freedom flights in the EU transit Britain (old Empire connections - Australia, New Zealand, Singapore). Although the US has got Fifth Freedom rights in the EU none of the airlines use them. I wonder if the UK will 'reciprocate' over ownership rules - the EU seems very keen on reciprocation....no EU cabotage in the UK, I'm sure....
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 9,839
    IanB2 said:

    It is remarkable the risks people will take just to avoid a few points on their license.

    You don't even have to take the points - just do the awareness course.
  • Hmm, this is a little charge of dynamite in the EU no-deal plans:

    In case of no-deal, every consignment of live animals and animal products coming from the UK would have to undergo, as of the withdrawal date, checks in Union border inspection posts (BIPs) at the point of entry into the EU.
    ...
    Certain flexibilities are provided for in the applicable EU legislation, e.g. accepting temporary premises for inspection rooms or sharing commercial facilities for the storage of consignments. In order to be ready by 30 March 2019, the new or extended border inspection posts must be proposed by the Member States to the European Commission before 15 February 2019.


    Better get building those border posts pretty sharpish, Mr Varadkar.

    https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/contingency-qanda_en.pdf
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 3,273

    Labour have contrived to have a week of car crashes with a botched vnoc, Corbyn squirming on whether he did or did not say stupid woman to the PM, and one of their mps found guilty of perverting the course of justice

    A multiple pile up involving politicians of various parties seems to be a daily occurrence. When was the last relatively quiet political week?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 38,291
    Pulpstar said:

    Emergency debate for Starmer to chunter on about Brexit some more.

    Hey, he at least is relatively effective.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 49,035
    Definitely a passing resemblance to the most famous Bristow !
  • tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    It is remarkable the risks people will take just to avoid a few points on their license.

    You don't even have to take the points - just do the awareness course.
    She'd already done the course for a previous offence, you can't repeat that within 3(?) years.
  • The Tory candidate is an ultra-Brexiteer and has been violently rude about May's deal many times on Twitter.

    Really?

    https://twitter.com/paulbristow79
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 15,368
    kinabalu said:

    Gosh just read the details of the case. Merits some porridge. What a stupid woman!

    Hell's bells, haven't we had enough trouble over that phrase?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 15,368
    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    It is remarkable the risks people will take just to avoid a few points on their license.

    You don't even have to take the points - just do the awareness course.
    So there was literally no point to her actions?
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634
    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    TOPPING said:

    Alistair said:

    Whilst all the arguments rage (or whimper?) about what one adult may or may not have said to another adult, I notice the EU have published their No Deal Brexit plans this morning which seem on face value to deal with a lot of the concerns about immediate impacts.


    So.

    UK flights will be allowed to operate into and out of the EU.

    No, the deal was UK operated flights could make technical stops in the EU without restriction. Technical stops do not allow passengers to board or disembark.

    To actually fly passengers to/from locations UK operated flights would have to apply for permission.
    That is not what is being reported by any of the news agencies (I still haven't found a link ti the actual document.) They are saying that flights continue between the UK and EU as normal but UK airlines will not be operate flights within the EU.
    Haven't looked any further than the front page.

    europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-18-6851_en.htm
    This Q & A is quite useful for seeing what exactly would happen:

    https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/contingency-qanda_en.pdf

    In case of no deal, the Commission is proposing that "point-to-point" flight connections, i.e. connections from the territory of the United Kingdom to the territory of the EU27, are temporarily allowed on the basis of a unilateral measure. This measure will enter into force in case of no deal, if the United Kingdom reciprocates, and last until 30 March 2020.

    If I understand correctly, this may not cover onward flights, though, and intra-EU flights are definitely not covered.
    Thanks.

    As I read it, they are imposing an effective shortened transition period. After that, well I suppose they would roll over the terms in all practicality. And it seems very skewed towards the UK being compliant with EU regs.

    No issue with the backstop on account of the "all relevant EU legislation on the importation and exportation of goods will apply to goods moving between the EU and the UK" clause.

    Do we know what the ERG have said? What about @RichieTyndall, perhaps forthcoming Independent candidate in Peterborough?
    "User not found".
  • Could Theresa May become the first PM to gain two seats from the opposition since the 19th century?

    * Technically, Macmillan did too, gaining Brighouse & Spenborough in 1960, and Bristol SE in 1961, but that latter one was only because Labour knowingly nominated a disqualified candidate, who nonetheless topped the poll.

    * Technically, MacDonald (1929-31) did so too, but only because Labour gained Liverpool Scotland from the Irish Parliamentary Party, the MP for which had in effect been caucusing with Labour before his death - as evidenced by the fact that Labour didn't contest the seat at the 1929 GE, yet was unopposed at the by-election giving a nominal swing of 100%!

    * Technically, Asquith did too but all but one of the Liberal 'gains' are affected by Lib-Lab nomination effects.
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,375
    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    It is remarkable the risks people will take just to avoid a few points on their license.

    You don't even have to take the points - just do the awareness course.
    I don't think think the awareness course is an option if you're caught doing 41 in a 30mph zone.

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 9,839

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    It is remarkable the risks people will take just to avoid a few points on their license.

    You don't even have to take the points - just do the awareness course.
    She'd already done the course for a previous offence, you can't repeat that within 3(?) years.
    Well then just take the bloody points.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 16,100

    Hmm, this is a little charge of dynamite in the EU no-deal plans:

    In case of no-deal, every consignment of live animals and animal products coming from the UK would have to undergo, as of the withdrawal date, checks in Union border inspection posts (BIPs) at the point of entry into the EU.
    ...
    Certain flexibilities are provided for in the applicable EU legislation, e.g. accepting temporary premises for inspection rooms or sharing commercial facilities for the storage of consignments. In order to be ready by 30 March 2019, the new or extended border inspection posts must be proposed by the Member States to the European Commission before 15 February 2019.


    Better get building those border posts pretty sharpish, Mr Varadkar.

    https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/contingency-qanda_en.pdf

    Very interesting. My position remains that this (inspections) can't happen at the border. I don't think therefore that it changes anything apart from no dealers' ability to say - look, it's not that bad, planes will keep flying.

    For once, and we have yet to hear her official response, May might prove to be one of the few grown-ups in the room.

    It all comes down to not being the PM who allowed any hint of The Troubles to resurface on their watch. But how the dingedy dang is she going to get it through the Commons...
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 3,273
    Surely the original offence merited 3 points, a fine, bad front page in local rag, a paragraph in national dailies, and a brief appearance in Private Eye.
    Seems rather silly to chuck away 2 careers for. Folk, eh?
  • Hmm, this is a little charge of dynamite in the EU no-deal plans:

    In case of no-deal, every consignment of live animals and animal products coming from the UK would have to undergo, as of the withdrawal date, checks in Union border inspection posts (BIPs) at the point of entry into the EU.
    ...
    Certain flexibilities are provided for in the applicable EU legislation, e.g. accepting temporary premises for inspection rooms or sharing commercial facilities for the storage of consignments. In order to be ready by 30 March 2019, the new or extended border inspection posts must be proposed by the Member States to the European Commission before 15 February 2019.


    Better get building those border posts pretty sharpish, Mr Varadkar.

    https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/contingency-qanda_en.pdf

    You do get the impression that this has been drawn up by people who will neither have to implement these plans nor live with the consequences (electoral among others) of them....
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 24,363
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    It is remarkable the risks people will take just to avoid a few points on their license.

    You don't even have to take the points - just do the awareness course.
    She'd already done the course for a previous offence, you can't repeat that within 3(?) years.
    Well then just take the bloody points.
    Her behaviour was beyond stupid. Even if she got a driving ban, it would still be far better than this outcome.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 713
    ydoethur said:

    Hell's bells, haven't we had enough trouble over that phrase?

    Yes, sorry, that was loose talk. Let me rephrase. What a stupid Fiona Onasanya!
  • A clear 2-way fight.

    Between the LibDems and Nigel Farage
  • You do get the impression that this has been drawn up by people who will neither have to implement these plans nor live with the consequences (electoral among others) of them....

    They are bureaucrats implementing EU law.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 38,291
    dixiedean said:

    Surely the original offence merited 3 points, a fine, bad front page in local rag, a paragraph in national dailies, and a brief appearance in Private Eye.
    Seems rather silly to chuck away 2 careers for. Folk, eh?

    Well she almost got away with it given the first trial.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 15,368
    kinabalu said:

    ydoethur said:

    Hell's bells, haven't we had enough trouble over that phrase?

    Yes, sorry, that was loose talk. Let me rephrase. What a stupid Fiona Onasanya!
    Well, it's served one purpose.

    Corbyn is continuing to dominate the news which is helpfully keeping Onasanaya off it.

    He's also getting lots of exposure, absence of which I gather is the reason why labour are struggling politically despite this government making the Flensburg administration look strong and stable.
  • Sean_F said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    It is remarkable the risks people will take just to avoid a few points on their license.

    You don't even have to take the points - just do the awareness course.
    She'd already done the course for a previous offence, you can't repeat that within 3(?) years.
    Well then just take the bloody points.
    Her behaviour was beyond stupid. Even if she got a driving ban, it would still be far better than this outcome.
    Still, she should get a decent third career as a talking head on the BBC, if Vicky Pryce is any guide.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 24,363
    kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Surely the original offence merited 3 points, a fine, bad front page in local rag, a paragraph in national dailies, and a brief appearance in Private Eye.
    Seems rather silly to chuck away 2 careers for. Folk, eh?

    Well she almost got away with it given the first trial.
    It's still like running on to a motorway to pick up 50p.
  • dixiedean said:

    Labour have contrived to have a week of car crashes with a botched vnoc, Corbyn squirming on whether he did or did not say stupid woman to the PM, and one of their mps found guilty of perverting the course of justice

    A multiple pile up involving politicians of various parties seems to be a daily occurrence. When was the last relatively quiet political week?
    Maybe, but a truely bad week for labour
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 8,186
    edited December 2018
    kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Surely the original offence merited 3 points, a fine, bad front page in local rag, a paragraph in national dailies, and a brief appearance in Private Eye.
    Seems rather silly to chuck away 2 careers for. Folk, eh?

    Well she almost got away with it given the first trial.
    I suspect that jury was 9-2 for conviction. The ill juror may have given her a brief reprieve.

    It seems to me that if 10-2 (83%) is an acceptable majority, then 9-2 (82%), or indeed 8-2 (80%) should also be. Instead the bar jumps to 10-1 or 9-1 (91% / 90%).
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 271
    Sean_F said:


    WRT sentencing, there are three aggravating factors (abuse of a position of trust, absence of contrition, failure to co-operate with the authorities) and no mitigating factors that I can think of.

    She’s also an officer of the court, which is the most serious.
  • AndyJS said:

    tlg86 said:

    AndyJS said:

    RobD said:

    Oooo, a marginal!

    We haven't had a by-election in a classic Lab/Tory marginal for a long time AFAIK.
    Copeland?
    Yes I'd forgotten about that one, although the seat was Labour for about 100 years until recently, so it wasn't a seat that had historically swung between the parties over the years. Peterborough had the closest result in the country in 1966 I think.
    True, but it doesn't have to be a bellweather to be a marginal at a given time. Morley & Outwood is undoubtedly a marginal but prior to 2015, both it and its various predecessors had been Labour since well before WW2 (and before WW1 in some parts).
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 271
    tlg86 said:

    AndyJS said:

    RobD said:

    Oooo, a marginal!

    We haven't had a by-election in a classic Lab/Tory marginal for a long time AFAIK.
    Copeland?

    Copeland was a labour seat for sixty years and never really thought of as competitive until Corbyn.
  • Mr. Herdson, bellwether*.

    A wether is a castrated ram. Ones with a bell effectively guided the flock.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 24,363
    notme2 said:

    Sean_F said:


    WRT sentencing, there are three aggravating factors (abuse of a position of trust, absence of contrition, failure to co-operate with the authorities) and no mitigating factors that I can think of.

    She’s also an officer of the court, which is the most serious.
    That's abuse of a position of trust.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 15,368
    notme2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    AndyJS said:

    RobD said:

    Oooo, a marginal!

    We haven't had a by-election in a classic Lab/Tory marginal for a long time AFAIK.
    Copeland?

    Copeland was a labour seat for sixty years and never really thought of as competitive until Corbyn.
    82 years, to be exact.
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 271

    Labour have contrived to have a week of car crashes with a botched vnoc, Corbyn squirming on whether he did or did not say stupid woman to the PM, and one of their mps found guilty of perverting the course of justice


    So by the new normal rules of politics he’ll be up by 5 points.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 5,445
    This is bloody good. https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/jeremy-corbyn-pmqs-stupid-woman-theresa-may-brexit-latest-christmas-a8690986.html

    Next to Ms Leadsom on the front bench, the Prime Minister’s eyes widened as if she had sat suddenly upon an epipen. Up on his great green throne, the speaker’s world collapsed from under him.

    Mr Bercow has a well established taste in loud ties. Never before have they been so singularly outshone by his face. It turned first to pink, then to crimson, then to puce, like a sunset in a nuclear winter.

    “I have no need...the honourable lady...four months ago...nothing further on the matter…” This is the verbatim quote, not least as, presumably through sheer embarrassment, his microphone broke too, leaving his desperate prevarications inaudible. That actually happened.

    It was a revenge served at a temperature that can only be measured on the Kelvin scale. It was, frankly, immaculate.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 3,168
    edited December 2018
    notme2 said:

    Sean_F said:


    WRT sentencing, there are three aggravating factors (abuse of a position of trust, absence of contrition, failure to co-operate with the authorities) and no mitigating factors that I can think of.

    She’s also an officer of the court, which is the most serious.
    It defies belief. She was well qualified to know the difference between right and wrong, to know the consequences of getting caught.

    She must have a very strong 'it won't happen to me' chip. I expect she bought it on ebay from the seller know as jailbirdChrisH
  • Mr. Herdson, bellwether*.

    A wether is a castrated ram. Ones with a bell effectively guided the flock.

    Anyone care to guess which Kent seat is the current longest-standing bellwether? Though judging by its majority it's fairly unlikely to retain that status if and when Labour win an election.
  • Mr. Herdson, bellwether*.

    A wether is a castrated ram. Ones with a bell effectively guided the flock.

    Anyone care to guess which Kent seat is the current longest-standing bellwether? Though judging by its majority it's fairly unlikely to retain that status if and when Labour win an election.
    Thanet South?
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 1,290
    Donny43 said:
    Thinking of the poor taxpayer, why do we imprison criminals who aren't a danger to the public? (unless I suppose they run them over at 50 mph in a 30 mph zone...) It costs us about £200/night to imprison them. So a one year stay by her somewhere unpleasant will cost us £70,000 = uncannily close to her MP's salary. Staying at the Ritz is cheaper.

    We should fine criminals of this kind perhaps 50-75% of their life savings and probably include a possession order on their house to recover some of that. That earns the taxpayer maybe £500,000 for a serious offence by a well-off idiot, or £100,000 for a milder breach of the law by someone of more normal means. She's lost her legal and probably her MP's career, so I'd stop at that.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Daily Mail running an article on how Hitler celebrated christmas.

    image

    Because of course they are.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 15,368
    Anorak said:

    This is bloody good. https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/jeremy-corbyn-pmqs-stupid-woman-theresa-may-brexit-latest-christmas-a8690986.html

    Next to Ms Leadsom on the front bench, the Prime Minister’s eyes widened as if she had sat suddenly upon an epipen. Up on his great green throne, the speaker’s world collapsed from under him.

    Mr Bercow has a well established taste in loud ties. Never before have they been so singularly outshone by his face. It turned first to pink, then to crimson, then to puce, like a sunset in a nuclear winter.

    “I have no need...the honourable lady...four months ago...nothing further on the matter…” This is the verbatim quote, not least as, presumably through sheer embarrassment, his microphone broke too, leaving his desperate prevarications inaudible. That actually happened.

    It was a revenge served at a temperature that can only be measured on the Kelvin scale. It was, frankly, immaculate.

    When even the Indie is putting the boot into Bercow, you know it's game over.

    Will he evenlast until the meaningful vote?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 38,291
    If this is an ultra marginal what is that Scottish seat won by 2 votes?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 15,368

    Mr. Herdson, bellwether*.

    A wether is a castrated ram. Ones with a bell effectively guided the flock.

    Anyone care to guess which Kent seat is the current longest-standing bellwether? Though judging by its majority it's fairly unlikely to retain that status if and when Labour win an election.
    Gravesend?
  • kle4 said:

    If this is an ultra marginal what is that Scottish seat won by 2 votes?

    Tighter than a Scotsman.
  • TrèsDifficileTrèsDifficile Posts: 154
    edited December 2018

    The Tory candidate is an ultra-Brexiteer and has been violently rude about May's deal many times on Twitter.

    Really?

    https://twitter.com/paulbristow79


    "The Bristow's our and about again" - I'm pretty sure TSE will confirm the leaver in that grammar..
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    kle4 said:

    If this is an ultra marginal what is that Scottish seat won by 2 votes?

    Tighter than a Scotsman.
    Tighter than a Scottish nun's...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 15,368

    kle4 said:

    If this is an ultra marginal what is that Scottish seat won by 2 votes?

    Tighter than a Scotsman.
    That's a whisky comment to make.
  • ydoethur said:

    Mr. Herdson, bellwether*.

    A wether is a castrated ram. Ones with a bell effectively guided the flock.

    Anyone care to guess which Kent seat is the current longest-standing bellwether? Though judging by its majority it's fairly unlikely to retain that status if and when Labour win an election.
    Gravesend?
    That's now Gravesham, and it is a superb bellwether, from 1918 to 2017 - but with the exception of 2005, so it's not the right answer.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 713
    dixiedean said:

    Surely the original offence merited 3 points, a fine, bad front page in local rag, a paragraph in national dailies, and a brief appearance in Private Eye.
    Seems rather silly to chuck away 2 careers for. Folk, eh?

    Not to mention going to prison, and that's if she's lucky. If the judge gets out the wrong side of bed on sentencing day it might be something worse than little old prison. She might get locked up in a Customs Union with no ability to do free trade deals. Going by Ian Duncan Smith's face when the subject crops up that is all of Dante's circles rolled into one.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 24,363

    Mr. Herdson, bellwether*.

    A wether is a castrated ram. Ones with a bell effectively guided the flock.

    Anyone care to guess which Kent seat is the current longest-standing bellwether? Though judging by its majority it's fairly unlikely to retain that status if and when Labour win an election.
    I think it's Dartford, which has gone to the winner since 1970. As you say, it now looks safe for the Conservatives.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 15,368

    ydoethur said:

    Mr. Herdson, bellwether*.

    A wether is a castrated ram. Ones with a bell effectively guided the flock.

    Anyone care to guess which Kent seat is the current longest-standing bellwether? Though judging by its majority it's fairly unlikely to retain that status if and when Labour win an election.
    Gravesend?
    That's now Gravesham, and it is a superb bellwether, from 1918 to 2017 - but with the exception of 2005, so it's not the right answer.
    I'll go for Dartford then.
  • ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    If this is an ultra marginal what is that Scottish seat won by 2 votes?

    Tighter than a Scotsman.
    That's a whisky comment to make.
    I’m a Yorkshireman, I’m allowed to make that comment.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited December 2018

    You do get the impression that this has been drawn up by people who will neither have to implement these plans nor live with the consequences (electoral among others) of them....

    They are bureaucrats implementing EU law.
    I saw a number of ultra-Brexiteers on twitter spitting with rage that the EU hasn't reciprocated the automatic right of residence for UK citizens in the EU. It can't, because its not within the competency of the EU to order member states to accept citizens of third countries.

    So, what we have here is Brexiteers now demanding the EU massively overreach its powers.

    Funny old world.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 49,035

    ydoethur said:

    Mr. Herdson, bellwether*.

    A wether is a castrated ram. Ones with a bell effectively guided the flock.

    Anyone care to guess which Kent seat is the current longest-standing bellwether? Though judging by its majority it's fairly unlikely to retain that status if and when Labour win an election.
    Gravesend?
    That's now Gravesham, and it is a superb bellwether, from 1918 to 2017 - but with the exception of 2005, so it's not the right answer.
    Medway/Rochester (& Chatham/Strood) ?
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Mr. Herdson, bellwether*.

    A wether is a castrated ram. Ones with a bell effectively guided the flock.

    Anyone care to guess which Kent seat is the current longest-standing bellwether? Though judging by its majority it's fairly unlikely to retain that status if and when Labour win an election.
    Gravesend?
    That's now Gravesham, and it is a superb bellwether, from 1918 to 2017 - but with the exception of 2005, so it's not the right answer.
    I'll go for Dartford then.
    Is the right answer, it's been getting General Elections right since 1964. But it now has a Tory majority of 13,186 (24.4%).
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 38,291
    ydoethur said:

    Anorak said:

    This is bloody good. https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/jeremy-corbyn-pmqs-stupid-woman-theresa-may-brexit-latest-christmas-a8690986.html

    Next to Ms Leadsom on the front bench, the Prime Minister’s eyes widened as if she had sat suddenly upon an epipen. Up on his great green throne, the speaker’s world collapsed from under him.

    Mr Bercow has a well established taste in loud ties. Never before have they been so singularly outshone by his face. It turned first to pink, then to crimson, then to puce, like a sunset in a nuclear winter.

    “I have no need...the honourable lady...four months ago...nothing further on the matter…” This is the verbatim quote, not least as, presumably through sheer embarrassment, his microphone broke too, leaving his desperate prevarications inaudible. That actually happened.

    It was a revenge served at a temperature that can only be measured on the Kelvin scale. It was, frankly, immaculate.

    When even the Indie is putting the boot into Bercow, you know it's game over.

    Will he evenlast until the meaningful vote?
    Yes. Why wouldn't he? His behaviour is known, as is his usefulness.
This discussion has been closed.