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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Survation poll of CON Councillors finds Javid leading over Joh

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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Roger said:

    Johnson must be Corbyn's dream. The only LIKELY candidate he'd be cetain to beat.

    (Obviously he'd also beat Gove and Rees Mogg)

    He would probably beat Widow Twanky.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,613
    Sandpit said:

    Bloody hell, I’d completely forgotten just how cold and wet and miserable is a British December!

    So have we. This year is particularly mild.

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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,003

    ydoethur said:

    So, we're off the B word for the moment and what are the topics of discussion?

    Corbyn being allegedly racist and sexist.

    A Labour MP being convicted of conspiracy to pervert the course of justice.

    Slightly leavened by the Government's shambolic immigration policy.

    And there in a nutshell is why Corbyn is the wrong leader for Labour.

    Quite right. Although, TBH, I don't see what's so wrong with Corbyn's sotto voce; May IS being rather silly, and her panto jokes, followed often by a smirk to her supporters I personally find irritating, and would probably find extremely so if I were on the other side of the House.
    When did she last treat any (serious) intervention by an opposition MP seriously?
    How many of the 'panto jokes' and 'smirks' that you find irritating are in response to a serious intervention? Sadly, too often at PMQs it is stupid questions getting stupid answers: because the questions are designed not to get an answer, but to make a point.

    (And this goes for all PMs.)
    Probably about two-thirds of them! Agree aout the use of PMQ's, though. A useful idea when introduced, but they've become devalued.
    I get the opposite view: the later in PMQs it is, when you get backbenchers asking sometimes genuine questions on important topics, it is much better than when the opposition leader stands up to ask questions.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,641
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    So, we're off the B word for the moment and what are the topics of discussion?

    Corbyn being allegedly racist and sexist.

    A Labour MP being convicted of conspiracy to pervert the course of justice.

    Slightly leavened by the Government's shambolic immigration policy.

    And there in a nutshell is why Corbyn is the wrong leader for Labour.

    Quite right. Although, TBH, I don't see what's so wrong with Corbyn's sotto voce; May IS being rather silly, and her panto jokes, followed often by a smirk to her supporters I personally find irritating, and would probably find extremely so if I were on the other side of the House.
    When did she last treat any (serious) intervention by an opposition MP seriously?
    I think the problem is you can't boast about your record on gender equality and then be caught making remarks that can reasonably be considered sexist.

    Edit - also, there is a difference between 'silly' and 'stupid'.
    I think that the rather exagerrated response to a stupid comment is just going to antagonise further the relationship between the parties. The chance of TM getting support from Labour to get a Deal passed over her own backbenchers dropped as a result.

    Both parties being led by pigheaded factionalists doesn't bode well for a good outcome.
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    You know how we're concluding that there couldn't conceivably bigger fecking eejits than our Parliamentarians....

    https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/1075653421993123840
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,242
    Roger said:

    Johnson must be Corbyn's dream. The only LIKELY candidate he'd be cetain to beat.

    (Obviously he'd also beat Gove and Rees Mogg)

    I don't think he would beat Johnson. Basically it would be a straight fight between two people with essentially similar backgrounds, attitudes and behavioural characteristics. It would come down to a tussle over who dominated the airwaves more.

    So who would win? The intelligent and experienced buffoon who is well known and a large number for whatever reason find funny, or the shall we say politely intellectually challenged and naive one who was unheard of three years ago and whom a majority of the population find faintly sinister?
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,282

    Peterborough is bad news for europhiles. Until the result is known it'll it freeze in place Jezz's ' Red Brexit ' strategy. If Labour win it will be validation of it. If Labour lose ( a mid term by-election to an 8 year old government ) it will be framed as metropolitan Labour being out of touch with ' real ' Britain.

    Europhiles least worst hope is a mildly europhile Labour candidate who wins big after a campaign focused on everything except Brexit. Peterbourgh can never be a good result for Remainers but the killing field could be levelled.

    But the bottom line is Theresea May got lucky today. Her strategy is to burn time and until Peterborough is held the Corbyn inner circle will be happy to help her do it.

    She desperately needs an extra loyal MP.

    I'd have thought she'd want the by election asap and will throw the kitchen sink at it.
    Someone made an interesting point yesterday that Corbynite Labour appears to be picking some rather poor parliamentary candidates. I wouldn't be surprised if that was to continue with their rushed need to replace the current MP. It could be an important factor in the by-election.
    If you are picking people for the extremity and steadfastness of their views, then you are going to be sifting through some peculiar characters - whether Corbynite Labour or Eurosceptic Tories.
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    Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634

    Donny43 said:


    There's a group of MPs who are rejecting the deal not on its merits but because there is a deal which is ten times as large as that one.

    I guess you're talking about the opposition, and this is true, but:

    1) Oppositions gonna oppose

    2) If you want them to do something other than oppose, you have to actually work with them; When TMay failed to get a majority a lot of people suggested she should be doing Brexit as a cross-party thing, but she decided she was going to lock them out and instead optimize everything for keeping her own party together instead. You could argue that if the whole thing goes to shit it's their fault for not sucking up the least bad option she gave them, but generally the voters will blame the government for things that happen when they're governing.
    Three months before "no deal by accident" is well past the time an opposition should be primarily motivated by who the voters are going to blame.

    Unless, of course, "no deal by accident" wouldn't actually be that bad.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,242

    You know how we're concluding that there couldn't conceivably bigger fecking eejits than our Parliamentarians....

    https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/1075653421993123840

    Surely half a dozen security guards with air guns would do the trick?
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,242
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    So, we're off the B word for the moment and what are the topics of discussion?

    Corbyn being allegedly racist and sexist.

    A Labour MP being convicted of conspiracy to pervert the course of justice.

    Slightly leavened by the Government's shambolic immigration policy.

    And there in a nutshell is why Corbyn is the wrong leader for Labour.

    Quite right. Although, TBH, I don't see what's so wrong with Corbyn's sotto voce; May IS being rather silly, and her panto jokes, followed often by a smirk to her supporters I personally find irritating, and would probably find extremely so if I were on the other side of the House.
    When did she last treat any (serious) intervention by an opposition MP seriously?
    I think the problem is you can't boast about your record on gender equality and then be caught making remarks that can reasonably be considered sexist.

    Edit - also, there is a difference between 'silly' and 'stupid'.
    I think that the rather exagerrated response to a stupid comment is just going to antagonise further the relationship between the parties. The chance of TM getting support from Labour to get a Deal passed over her own backbenchers dropped as a result.

    Both parties being led by pigheaded factionalists doesn't bode well for a good outcome.
    If Corbyn can't definitively say that he wasn't calling his own backbenchers stupid it might actually have increased.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,613

    ydoethur said:

    So, we're off the B word for the moment and what are the topics of discussion?

    Corbyn being allegedly racist and sexist.

    A Labour MP being convicted of conspiracy to pervert the course of justice.

    Slightly leavened by the Government's shambolic immigration policy.

    And there in a nutshell is why Corbyn is the wrong leader for Labour.

    Quite right. Although, TBH, I don't see what's so wrong with Corbyn's sotto voce...
    Because ‘stupid woman’ isn’t a considered judgment, but a reflexive, dismissive, sexist trope. That Corbyn supporters can’t see that is puzzling, when this is supposed to be one of those things which separate Labour from the Tories.

    Finding May’s schtick irritating, or even contemptible, is quite understandable. How you express that irritation while under the nation’s scrutiny is a fairly basic test for a politician.

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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,282

    Peterborough is bad news for europhiles. Until the result is known it'll it freeze in place Jezz's ' Red Brexit ' strategy. If Labour win it will be validation of it. If Labour lose ( a mid term by-election to an 8 year old government ) it will be framed as metropolitan Labour being out of touch with ' real ' Britain.

    Europhiles least worst hope is a mildly europhile Labour candidate who wins big after a campaign focused on everything except Brexit. Peterbourgh can never be a good result for Remainers but the killing field could be levelled.

    But the bottom line is Theresea May got lucky today. Her strategy is to burn time and until Peterborough is held the Corbyn inner circle will be happy to help her do it.

    She desperately needs an extra loyal MP.

    I'd have thought she'd want the by election asap and will throw the kitchen sink at it.
    That rather depends on who the Tories put up. Someone campaigning against her deal could be distinctly unhelpful (although tbf its fate will likely be decided before the election comes around).
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,613
    ydoethur said:

    You know how we're concluding that there couldn't conceivably bigger fecking eejits than our Parliamentarians....

    https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/1075653421993123840

    Surely half a dozen security guards with air guns would do the trick?
    Shotguns, surely ?
    The police saying they couldn’t use guns because of ‘stray bullets’ seemed strange to me.

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    Apologies if someone mentioned this earlier but adding those totals you get 376 "hardline" Brexit (Mogg+Davis+Johnson+McVey + Raab), 335 "managed no deal / Canada etc" types (Gove + :Leadsom + Javid + Hunt (despite his recent conversion, I have put him in here) + Mourdant) and 87 softer types (Rudd)).

    Remainers in the Conservative Parliamentary party may have to swallow a more pro-Brexit candidate than they like to stop the hardliners taking over if it went to a vote of the membership.
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    Sorry should have read 346 hardline, instead of 376
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    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    You know how we're concluding that there couldn't conceivably bigger fecking eejits than our Parliamentarians....

    https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/1075653421993123840

    Can’t we get those idiots under laws we already have about endangering aircraft?

    It’s time for them to go to jail. That will stop it.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    So, we're off the B word for the moment and what are the topics of discussion?

    Corbyn being allegedly racist and sexist.

    A Labour MP being convicted of conspiracy to pervert the course of justice.

    Slightly leavened by the Government's shambolic immigration policy.

    And there in a nutshell is why Corbyn is the wrong leader for Labour.

    Quite right. Although, TBH, I don't see what's so wrong with Corbyn's sotto voce...
    Because ‘stupid woman’ isn’t a considered judgment, but a reflexive, dismissive, sexist trope. That Corbyn supporters can’t see that is puzzling, when this is supposed to be one of those things which separate Labour from the Tories.

    Finding May’s schtick irritating, or even contemptible, is quite understandable. How you express that irritation while under the nation’s scrutiny is a fairly basic test for a politician.

    Nicely put.
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    Good morning, everyone.

    Mordaunt would be a fantastic successor to May.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,282

    Apologies if someone mentioned this earlier but adding those totals you get 376 "hardline" Brexit (Mogg+Davis+Johnson+McVey + Raab), 335 "managed no deal / Canada etc" types (Gove + :Leadsom + Javid + Hunt (despite his recent conversion, I have put him in here) + Mourdant) and 87 softer types (Rudd)).

    Remainers in the Conservative Parliamentary party may have to swallow a more pro-Brexit candidate than they like to stop the hardliners taking over if it went to a vote of the membership.

    If you have decided that managed no deal is any different from hard Brexit, then you have fallen for their propaganda. Politicians are much better at thinking up ways to package shit arrangements than they are in managing their way out of them.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,897
    edited December 2018

    You know how we're concluding that there couldn't conceivably bigger fecking eejits than our Parliamentarians....

    https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/1075653421993123840

    20+ flights diverted to all sorts of places, glad I wasn’t flying in to LGW.

    Looks like some sort of well organised protest designed to shut the airport, which is very worrying and likely to not be the last time this happens. I wonder if the idiots realise they can get five years for endangering aircraft?

    Edit. At least 52 flights diverted, that’s going to cause absolute chaos
    https://twitter.com/flightradar24/status/1075614884212207616
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    ydoethur said:

    You know how we're concluding that there couldn't conceivably bigger fecking eejits than our Parliamentarians....

    https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/1075653421993123840

    Surely half a dozen security guards with air guns would do the trick?
    I'm surprised they haven't prepared for this - the Dutch and the French have been training birds of prey - but the Dutch stopped:

    https://www.theverge.com/2017/12/12/16767000/police-netherlands-eagles-rogue-drones

    https://globalnews.ca/news/3251651/french-air-force-training-eagles-to-take-down-drones/
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    ydoethur said:

    You know how we're concluding that there couldn't conceivably bigger fecking eejits than our Parliamentarians....

    https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/1075653421993123840

    Surely half a dozen security guards with air guns would do the trick?
    If it's bad now, wait until millions of little buggers open their Christmas presents....
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,613
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    So, we're off the B word for the moment and what are the topics of discussion?

    Corbyn being allegedly racist and sexist.

    A Labour MP being convicted of conspiracy to pervert the course of justice.

    Slightly leavened by the Government's shambolic immigration policy.

    And there in a nutshell is why Corbyn is the wrong leader for Labour.

    Quite right. Although, TBH, I don't see what's so wrong with Corbyn's sotto voce; May IS being rather silly, and her panto jokes, followed often by a smirk to her supporters I personally find irritating, and would probably find extremely so if I were on the other side of the House.
    When did she last treat any (serious) intervention by an opposition MP seriously?
    I think the problem is you can't boast about your record on gender equality and then be caught making remarks that can reasonably be considered sexist.

    Edit - also, there is a difference between 'silly' and 'stupid'.
    I think that the rather exagerrated response to a stupid comment is just going to antagonise further the relationship between the parties. The chance of TM getting support from Labour to get a Deal passed over her own backbenchers dropped as a result.

    Both parties being led by pigheaded factionalists doesn't bode well for a good outcome.
    If Corbyn can't definitively say that he wasn't calling his own backbenchers stupid it might actually have increased.
    LOL.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,242
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    You know how we're concluding that there couldn't conceivably bigger fecking eejits than our Parliamentarians....

    https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/1075653421993123840

    Surely half a dozen security guards with air guns would do the trick?
    Shotguns, surely ?
    The police saying they couldn’t use guns because of ‘stray bullets’ seemed strange to me.

    Airguns. You get Moran drama that way...
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,641
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    You know how we're concluding that there couldn't conceivably bigger fecking eejits than our Parliamentarians....

    https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/1075653421993123840

    Surely half a dozen security guards with air guns would do the trick?
    Shotguns, surely ?
    The police saying they couldn’t use guns because of ‘stray bullets’ seemed strange to me.

    Altitude of the drones must be a problem. Not easy to hit.

    I rather like the idea of the net firing bazooka

    https://www.digitaltrends.com/cool-tech/this-shoulder-mounted-net-firing-bazooka-can-down-a-rogue-drone-at-100-meters/

    It also retrieves the drone for forensic analysis and hopefully prosecution of the operator.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    edited December 2018
    Sandpit said:

    You know how we're concluding that there couldn't conceivably bigger fecking eejits than our Parliamentarians....

    https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/1075653421993123840

    20+ flights diverted to all sorts of places, glad I wasn’t flying in to LGW.

    Looks like some sort of well organised protest designed to shut the airport, which is very worrying and likely to not be the last time this happens. I wonder if the idiots realise they can get five years for endangering aircraft?
    Flew in to Gatwick last night, arrived 30min before it closed. Scary when you think about it. Drones probably already in the air.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,242
    edited December 2018
    Morning Mr Dancer.

    Your book's been posting again, and it seems to have had one too many last night.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125

    Apologies if someone mentioned this earlier but adding those totals you get 376 "hardline" Brexit (Mogg+Davis+Johnson+McVey + Raab), 335 "managed no deal / Canada etc" types (Gove + :Leadsom + Javid + Hunt (despite his recent conversion, I have put him in here) + Mourdant) and 87 softer types (Rudd)).

    Remainers in the Conservative Parliamentary party may have to swallow a more pro-Brexit candidate than they like to stop the hardliners taking over if it went to a vote of the membership.

    Has Boris Johnson come out for "hardline" Brexit? I would have thought he was more likely to favour "managed no deal"....
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    Mr. Doethur, when PM Mordaunt addresses the nation one shall graciously accept one's apology.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,641
    edited December 2018
    The Isle of Wight Ferry is the only way to travel. No drones or customs, and the Full Monty Breakfast is a delight, unless you are a cardiologist.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    You know how we're concluding that there couldn't conceivably bigger fecking eejits than our Parliamentarians....

    https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/1075653421993123840

    Surely half a dozen security guards with air guns would do the trick?
    Shotguns, surely ?
    The police saying they couldn’t use guns because of ‘stray bullets’ seemed strange to me.

    Altitude of the drones must be a problem. Not easy to hit.

    I rather like the idea of the net firing bazooka

    https://www.digitaltrends.com/cool-tech/this-shoulder-mounted-net-firing-bazooka-can-down-a-rogue-drone-at-100-meters/

    It also retrieves the drone for forensic analysis and hopefully prosecution of the operator.
    Find the radio frequency, jam it. It should fall out of the sky.
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    Apologies if someone mentioned this earlier but adding those totals you get 376 "hardline" Brexit (Mogg+Davis+Johnson+McVey + Raab), 335 "managed no deal / Canada etc" types (Gove + :Leadsom + Javid + Hunt (despite his recent conversion, I have put him in here) + Mourdant) and 87 softer types (Rudd)).

    Remainers in the Conservative Parliamentary party may have to swallow a more pro-Brexit candidate than they like to stop the hardliners taking over if it went to a vote of the membership.

    Has Boris Johnson come out for "hardline" Brexit? I would have thought he was more likely to favour "managed no deal"....
    It's a fair point but I was thinking more of which camp he would be perceived to be in i.e. in the Rees-Mogg camp than the Gove etc one
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    What on earth has Javid actually ever done. Johnson would appeal to Tory heartlands but he is such a loose cannon that there is no chance of him actually winning the marginals.

    The only sane choices would be Raab or Mordaunt.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,003
    Foxy said:

    The Isle of Wight Ferry is the only way to travel. No drones or customs, and the Full Monty Breakfast is a delight, unless you are a cardiologist.

    Ahem.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-hampshire-45932147

    Although the best way of getting to the Isle of Wight is on the hovercraft from Southsea. Vrooom!
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,242
    Foxy said:

    The Isle of Wight Ferry is the only way to travel. No drones or customs, and the Full Monty Breakfast is a delight, unless you are a cardiologist.

    Also one of the great transport jokes:

    What is black, and steams, and comes out of Cowes backwards?

    The Isle of Wight ferry.
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    IanB2 said:

    Apologies if someone mentioned this earlier but adding those totals you get 376 "hardline" Brexit (Mogg+Davis+Johnson+McVey + Raab), 335 "managed no deal / Canada etc" types (Gove + :Leadsom + Javid + Hunt (despite his recent conversion, I have put him in here) + Mourdant) and 87 softer types (Rudd)).

    Remainers in the Conservative Parliamentary party may have to swallow a more pro-Brexit candidate than they like to stop the hardliners taking over if it went to a vote of the membership.

    If you have decided that managed no deal is any different from hard Brexit, then you have fallen for their propaganda. Politicians are much better at thinking up ways to package shit arrangements than they are in managing their way out of them.
    I was thinking more about the perception of the camps they would be perceived to be in, rather than making a comment on the validity of their claims.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    edited December 2018
    Foxy said:

    The Isle of Wight Ferry is the only way to travel. No drones or customs, and the Full Monty Breakfast is a delight, unless you are a cardiologist.

    Always a joy to return from the island. Like time travelling back from the 1950s.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,641
    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    The Isle of Wight Ferry is the only way to travel. No drones or customs, and the Full Monty Breakfast is a delight, unless you are a cardiologist.

    Always a joy to return from the island. Like time travelling back from the 1950s.
    That's not quite accurate. Some parts of the Isle have now reached the 1980's...
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    Foxy said:

    Peterborough is bad news for europhiles. Until the result is known it'll it freeze in place Jezz's ' Red Brexit ' strategy. If Labour win it will be validation of it. If Labour lose ( a mid term by-election to an 8 year old government ) it will be framed as metropolitan Labour being out of touch with ' real ' Britain.

    Europhiles least worst hope is a mildly europhile Labour candidate who wins big after a campaign focused on everything except Brexit. Peterbourgh can never be a good result for Remainers but the killing field could be levelled.

    But the bottom line is Theresea May got lucky today. Her strategy is to burn time and until Peterborough is held the Corbyn inner circle will be happy to help her do it.

    She desperately needs an extra loyal MP.

    I'd have thought she'd want the by election asap and will throw the kitchen sink at it.
    Someone made an interesting point yesterday that Corbynite Labour appears to be picking some rather poor parliamentary candidates. I wouldn't be surprised if that was to continue with their rushed need to replace the current MP. It could be an important factor in the by-election.
    https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/1075413321271140353
    I think this one of many outcomes resulting from the snap election of 2017. A rushed selection process is a poor selection process.

    I am sure that we will see a similar rushed procedure when Theresa is Defenestrated.
    True - but May being such a control freak over candidate selection in 2017 that she overruled local associations and lost their support when it came to campaigning and lost their seats as well. Neither party has got this sorted.

    Sadly Labour do appear prepared on candidate selection, certainly in the marginals, than 2017 which isn’t the case for the Tories.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,282
    Foxy said:

    The Isle of Wight Ferry is the only way to travel. No drones or customs, and the Full Monty Breakfast is a delight, unless you are a cardiologist.

    You must be a fast eater!
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,641

    What on earth has Javid actually ever done. Johnson would appeal to Tory heartlands but he is such a loose cannon that there is no chance of him actually winning the marginals.

    The only sane choices would be Raab or Mordaunt.

    Mordaunt would certainly make a splash.

    https://www.itv.com/news/meridian/update/2014-01-18/penny-mordaunt-mp-out-of-splash-after-painful-dive/
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,282

    What on earth has Javid actually ever done. Johnson would appeal to Tory heartlands but he is such a loose cannon that there is no chance of him actually winning the marginals.

    The only sane choices would be Raab or Mordaunt.

    The sanity quotient depends on whether it's the MPs or the members making the choice.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,641
    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    The Isle of Wight Ferry is the only way to travel. No drones or customs, and the Full Monty Breakfast is a delight, unless you are a cardiologist.

    You must be a fast eater!
    The Red Funnel from Southampton takes just over an hour, so still plenty of time to enjoy the view whilst clogging your arteries.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Foxy said:

    What on earth has Javid actually ever done. Johnson would appeal to Tory heartlands but he is such a loose cannon that there is no chance of him actually winning the marginals.

    The only sane choices would be Raab or Mordaunt.

    Mordaunt would certainly make a splash.

    https://www.itv.com/news/meridian/update/2014-01-18/penny-mordaunt-mp-out-of-splash-after-painful-dive/
    Are you saying they should chuck her in at the deep end?
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,282

    Foxy said:

    The Isle of Wight Ferry is the only way to travel. No drones or customs, and the Full Monty Breakfast is a delight, unless you are a cardiologist.

    Ahem.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-hampshire-45932147

    Although the best way of getting to the Isle of Wight is on the hovercraft from Southsea. Vrooom!
    so long as it isn't windy.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,641
    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    What on earth has Javid actually ever done. Johnson would appeal to Tory heartlands but he is such a loose cannon that there is no chance of him actually winning the marginals.

    The only sane choices would be Raab or Mordaunt.

    Mordaunt would certainly make a splash.

    https://www.itv.com/news/meridian/update/2014-01-18/penny-mordaunt-mp-out-of-splash-after-painful-dive/
    Are you saying they should chuck her in at the deep end?
    Yes , its sink or swim for the Tories.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,282

    IanB2 said:

    Apologies if someone mentioned this earlier but adding those totals you get 376 "hardline" Brexit (Mogg+Davis+Johnson+McVey + Raab), 335 "managed no deal / Canada etc" types (Gove + :Leadsom + Javid + Hunt (despite his recent conversion, I have put him in here) + Mourdant) and 87 softer types (Rudd)).

    Remainers in the Conservative Parliamentary party may have to swallow a more pro-Brexit candidate than they like to stop the hardliners taking over if it went to a vote of the membership.

    If you have decided that managed no deal is any different from hard Brexit, then you have fallen for their propaganda. Politicians are much better at thinking up ways to package shit arrangements than they are in managing their way out of them.
    I was thinking more about the perception of the camps they would be perceived to be in, rather than making a comment on the validity of their claims.
    If there are now two rival camps backing the same option, things are getting bad.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,282
    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    The Isle of Wight Ferry is the only way to travel. No drones or customs, and the Full Monty Breakfast is a delight, unless you are a cardiologist.

    Always a joy to return from the island. Like time travelling back from the 1950s.
    Doesn't that depend on where you live? ;)
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,242
    IanB2 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    The Isle of Wight Ferry is the only way to travel. No drones or customs, and the Full Monty Breakfast is a delight, unless you are a cardiologist.

    Always a joy to return from the island. Like time travelling back from the 1950s.
    Doesn't that depend on where you live? ;)
    True. Imagine going from the Isle of Wight to Islington, and thinking how charmingly retro this 30s timewarp looks...
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,282
    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    The Isle of Wight Ferry is the only way to travel. No drones or customs, and the Full Monty Breakfast is a delight, unless you are a cardiologist.

    You must be a fast eater!
    The Red Funnel from Southampton takes just over an hour, so still plenty of time to enjoy the view whilst clogging your arteries.
    Wightlink is better. There aren't quite as many facilities on board (although the new Victoria just put in service is quite good) but it's a shorter easier journey and there isn't the crush on board. And Portsmouth is much easier to get into and away from than Southampton.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,897
    edited December 2018
    Jonathan said:

    Sandpit said:

    You know how we're concluding that there couldn't conceivably bigger fecking eejits than our Parliamentarians....

    https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/1075653421993123840

    20+ flights diverted to all sorts of places, glad I wasn’t flying in to LGW.

    Looks like some sort of well organised protest designed to shut the airport, which is very worrying and likely to not be the last time this happens. I wonder if the idiots realise they can get five years for endangering aircraft?
    Flew in to Gatwick last night, arrived 30min before it closed. Scary when you think about it. Drones probably already in the air.
    You got lucky, thousands of people are going to be in random hotels this morning as their airlines work out how to get them where they’re supposed to be going.

    Unless they’re the huge 10kg six-rotor camera platform drones, they’re unlikely to do such serious damage to an aircraft that would lead to it crashing, but the authorities are rightly somewhat risk averse and always react to anything unauthorised flying in controlled airspace.

    If, as it looks, this is some form of protest, they could keep it going all day until the police find them. A lot of the modern hobby drones (in the £1k-£3k range) can be flown several kilometres from the user, and can be programmed to fly a set path and return without needing a signal from the ground and can fly for half an hour at 30mph or so on a battery.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,242
    Sandpit said:

    Jonathan said:

    Sandpit said:

    You know how we're concluding that there couldn't conceivably bigger fecking eejits than our Parliamentarians....

    https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/1075653421993123840

    20+ flights diverted to all sorts of places, glad I wasn’t flying in to LGW.

    Looks like some sort of well organised protest designed to shut the airport, which is very worrying and likely to not be the last time this happens. I wonder if the idiots realise they can get five years for endangering aircraft?
    Flew in to Gatwick last night, arrived 30min before it closed. Scary when you think about it. Drones probably already in the air.
    You got lucky, thousands of people are going to be in random hotels this morning as their airlines work out how to get them where they’re supposed to be going.

    Unless they’re the huge 10kg six-rotor camera platform drones, they’re unlikely to do such serious damage to an aircraft that would lead to it crashing, but the authorities are rightly somewhat risk averse and always react to anything unauthorised flying in controlled airspace.

    If, as it looks, this is some form of protest, they could keep it going all day until the police find them. A lot of the modern hobby drones (in the £1k-£3k range) can be flown several kilometres from the user, and can be programmed to fly a set path and return without needing a signal from the ground.
    Surely a bigger concern would be if they've got explosives strapped to them? That's only got to hit an engine and there's a problem.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,613
    ydoethur said:

    Morning Mr Dancer.

    Your book's been posting again, and it seems to have had one too many last night.

    A biting comment...
  • Options
    BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113
    edited December 2018
    Deleted. Too much information.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,613

    What on earth has Javid actually ever done. Johnson would appeal to Tory heartlands but he is such a loose cannon that there is no chance of him actually winning the marginals.

    The only sane choices would be Raab or Mordaunt.

    A very narrow and.... eccentric definition of sanity.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,007

    What on earth has Javid actually ever done. Johnson would appeal to Tory heartlands but he is such a loose cannon that there is no chance of him actually winning the marginals.

    The only sane choices would be Raab or Mordaunt.

    Johnson won scores of marginal in London when he won the Mayoralty and most of the marginal the Tories need for a majority voted Leave
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,282

    Depressing meeting at DfT yesterday. Civil servants preparing for Operation Yellowhammer for ‘no deal’ Brexit. Normal activity on hold, making plans to turn Kent into a lorry park. Expectations of more budget cuts in post-Brexit spending review.

    On the plus side staff will have more time to plan more unicorn lanes on the motorways across the sunlit uplands.

    Yet isn't the more likely forecast that export traffic will plummet due to all the new non tariff barriers?
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited December 2018
    Jonathan said:

    Roger said:

    Johnson must be Corbyn's dream. The only LIKELY candidate he'd be cetain to beat.

    (Obviously he'd also beat Gove and Rees Mogg)

    He would probably beat Widow Twanky.
    Shouldn't Labour be on an election footing by now? Isn't it time to put Diane Abbott into cold storage until it's all over?

    I swear I heard her electrifying the airways this morning telling Nick Robinson how Jeremy was far too busy feeding the 5000 to be mumbling sexist platitudes....
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    Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634
    Sandpit said:

    Jonathan said:

    Sandpit said:

    You know how we're concluding that there couldn't conceivably bigger fecking eejits than our Parliamentarians....

    https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/1075653421993123840

    20+ flights diverted to all sorts of places, glad I wasn’t flying in to LGW.

    Looks like some sort of well organised protest designed to shut the airport, which is very worrying and likely to not be the last time this happens. I wonder if the idiots realise they can get five years for endangering aircraft?
    Flew in to Gatwick last night, arrived 30min before it closed. Scary when you think about it. Drones probably already in the air.
    You got lucky, thousands of people are going to be in random hotels this morning as their airlines work out how to get them where they’re supposed to be going.

    Unless they’re the huge 10kg six-rotor camera platform drones, they’re unlikely to do such serious damage to an aircraft that would lead to it crashing, but the authorities are rightly somewhat risk averse and always react to anything unauthorised flying in controlled airspace.

    If, as it looks, this is some form of protest, they could keep it going all day until the police find them. A lot of the modern hobby drones (in the £1k-£3k range) can be flown several kilometres from the user, and can be programmed to fly a set path and return without needing a signal from the ground and can fly for half an hour at 30mph or so on a battery.
    If it's a protest, how long would we expect it to go on for before we find out what it's about?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,007
    edited December 2018
    Roger said:

    Johnson must be Corbyn's dream. The only LIKELY candidate he'd be cetain to beat.

    (Obviously he'd also beat Gove and Rees Mogg)

    Wrong, polling shows bar May the Tories tend to poll best against Corbyn under Johnson but worst under Hunt or Gove with Mogg and Javid in between
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,897
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Jonathan said:

    Sandpit said:

    You know how we're concluding that there couldn't conceivably bigger fecking eejits than our Parliamentarians....

    https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/1075653421993123840

    20+ flights diverted to all sorts of places, glad I wasn’t flying in to LGW.

    Looks like some sort of well organised protest designed to shut the airport, which is very worrying and likely to not be the last time this happens. I wonder if the idiots realise they can get five years for endangering aircraft?
    Flew in to Gatwick last night, arrived 30min before it closed. Scary when you think about it. Drones probably already in the air.
    You got lucky, thousands of people are going to be in random hotels this morning as their airlines work out how to get them where they’re supposed to be going.

    Unless they’re the huge 10kg six-rotor camera platform drones, they’re unlikely to do such serious damage to an aircraft that would lead to it crashing, but the authorities are rightly somewhat risk averse and always react to anything unauthorised flying in controlled airspace.

    If, as it looks, this is some form of protest, they could keep it going all day until the police find them. A lot of the modern hobby drones (in the £1k-£3k range) can be flown several kilometres from the user, and can be programmed to fly a set path and return without needing a signal from the ground.
    Surely a bigger concern would be if they've got explosives strapped to them? That's only got to hit an engine and there's a problem.
    The hobby drones can’t carry too much weight, but yes a drone carrying explosives could be a problem. While planes can continue to fly happily with an engine out, a bomb flown into one might damage the controls and systems on the wing.

    Thankfully today’s incident sounds more like the Plane Stupid mob or an environmental group, as opposed to anyone actually trying to bring down a plane.
  • Options
    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mordaunt would be a fantastic successor to May.

    From the Labour Party's point of view, yes.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750
    edited December 2018

    ydoethur said:

    So, we're off the B word for the moment and what are the topics of discussion?

    Corbyn being allegedly racist and sexist.

    A Labour MP being convicted of conspiracy to pervert the course of justice.

    Slightly leavened by the Government's shambolic immigration policy.

    And there in a nutshell is why Corbyn is the wrong leader for Labour.

    Quite right. Although, TBH, I don't see what's so wrong with Corbyn's sotto voce; May IS being rather silly, and her panto jokes, followed often by a smirk to her supporters I personally find irritating, and would probably find extremely so if I were on the other side of the House.
    When did she last treat any (serious) intervention by an opposition MP seriously?
    PMQs always has both sides being silly. It's only an issue if he said it because he would never, ever accept a defence from a tory for saying such a thing. So Tories are making a meal of it, for political reasons, but labour know damn well they'd not give an opponent benefit of the doubt.

    It reminds me a little of Brown and Duffy. There was no dispute in what he had said there but people did defend him on the basis he was right, even though he apologised and said he was wrong. Here we know Corbyn believes the alleged words were wrong to say because he claims to have said something else (maybe he did) not just 'look i did say it but she was/i didntsay it but she was acting stupid) but once again some, not even necessarily superfans of his, are defending what he himself is not defending.
  • Options
    paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461
    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    The Isle of Wight Ferry is the only way to travel. No drones or customs, and the Full Monty Breakfast is a delight, unless you are a cardiologist.

    You must be a fast eater!
    The Red Funnel from Southampton takes just over an hour, so still plenty of time to enjoy the view whilst clogging your arteries.
    Wightlink is better. There aren't quite as many facilities on board (although the new Victoria just put in service is quite good) but it's a shorter easier journey and there isn't the crush on board. And Portsmouth is much easier to get into and away from than Southampton.
    But do you get haggis like on the ullapool-inverness ferry?
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Leads I’m on R4, really rather weak. Not entirely sure she understands what’s going on.
  • Options
    paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461
    Donny43 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Jonathan said:

    Sandpit said:

    You know how we're concluding that there couldn't conceivably bigger fecking eejits than our Parliamentarians....

    https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/1075653421993123840

    20+ flights diverted to all sorts of places, glad I wasn’t flying in to LGW.

    Looks like some sort of well organised protest designed to shut the airport, which is very worrying and likely to not be the last time this happens. I wonder if the idiots realise they can get five years for endangering aircraft?
    Flew in to Gatwick last night, arrived 30min before it closed. Scary when you think about it. Drones probably already in the air.
    You got lucky, thousands of people are going to be in random hotels this morning as their airlines work out how to get them where they’re supposed to be going.

    Unless they’re the huge 10kg six-rotor camera platform drones, they’re unlikely to do such serious damage to an aircraft that would lead to it crashing, but the authorities are rightly somewhat risk averse and always react to anything unauthorised flying in controlled airspace.

    If, as it looks, this is some form of protest, they could keep it going all day until the police find them. A lot of the modern hobby drones (in the £1k-£3k range) can be flown several kilometres from the user, and can be programmed to fly a set path and return without needing a signal from the ground and can fly for half an hour at 30mph or so on a battery.
    If it's a protest, how long would we expect it to go on for before we find out what it's about?
    It does sound more malicious than stupid. And seems very easy to replicate unfortunately.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,974
    SeanT said:

    I'd go for Javid. He would, potentially, wallop Corbyn. He would also, yet again, prove that when it comes to reality rather than theory, the Tories are way more progressive than Labour (who STILL haven't elected a woman leader, let alone a female PM)

    My paradoxical worry is that, in his gratitude, he would be too rightwing and anti-migrant.

    The man is a useless halfwit, get a grip.
  • Options
    paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461

    ydoethur said:

    You know how we're concluding that there couldn't conceivably bigger fecking eejits than our Parliamentarians....

    https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/1075653421993123840

    Surely half a dozen security guards with air guns would do the trick?
    If it's bad now, wait until millions of little buggers open their Christmas presents....
    I got one last Christmas. Only thing I endangered was my face. Back in cupboard now.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,242
    malcolmg said:

    SeanT said:

    I'd go for Javid. He would, potentially, wallop Corbyn. He would also, yet again, prove that when it comes to reality rather than theory, the Tories are way more progressive than Labour (who STILL haven't elected a woman leader, let alone a female PM)

    My paradoxical worry is that, in his gratitude, he would be too rightwing and anti-migrant.

    The man is a useless halfwit, get a grip.
    Morning Malcolm!
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,974
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    So, we're off the B word for the moment and what are the topics of discussion?

    Corbyn being allegedly racist and sexist.

    A Labour MP being convicted of conspiracy to pervert the course of justice.

    Slightly leavened by the Government's shambolic immigration policy.

    And there in a nutshell is why Corbyn is the wrong leader for Labour.

    Quite right. Although, TBH, I don't see what's so wrong with Corbyn's sotto voce; May IS being rather silly, and her panto jokes, followed often by a smirk to her supporters I personally find irritating, and would probably find extremely so if I were on the other side of the House.
    When did she last treat any (serious) intervention by an opposition MP seriously?
    I think the problem is you can't boast about your record on gender equality and then be caught making remarks that can reasonably be considered sexist.

    Edit - also, there is a difference between 'silly' and 'stupid'.
    The degree of thickness, bit like "dumb" and "much dumber"
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750
    edited December 2018

    Deleted. Too much information.

    I shall purge my brain. All been there.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750
    malcolmg said:

    SeanT said:

    I'd go for Javid. He would, potentially, wallop Corbyn. He would also, yet again, prove that when it comes to reality rather than theory, the Tories are way more progressive than Labour (who STILL haven't elected a woman leader, let alone a female PM)

    My paradoxical worry is that, in his gratitude, he would be too rightwing and anti-migrant.

    The man is a useless halfwit, get a grip.
    In the land of no wits the half wit is king?
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,306
    malcolmg said:

    SeanT said:

    I'd go for Javid. He would, potentially, wallop Corbyn. He would also, yet again, prove that when it comes to reality rather than theory, the Tories are way more progressive than Labour (who STILL haven't elected a woman leader, let alone a female PM)

    My paradoxical worry is that, in his gratitude, he would be too rightwing and anti-migrant.

    The man is a useless halfwit, get a grip.
    So a major step up then Malcolm?
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190
    NEW THREAD
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750
    edited December 2018
    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Jonathan said:

    Sandpit said:

    You know how we're concluding that there couldn't conceivably bigger fecking eejits than our Parliamentarians....

    https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/1075653421993123840

    20+ flights diverted to all sorts of places, glad I wasn’t flying in to LGW.

    Looks like some sort of well organised protest designed to shut the airport, which is very worrying and likely to not be the last time this happens. I wonder if the idiots realise they can get five years for endangering aircraft?
    Flew in to Gatwick last night, arrived 30min before it closed. Scary when you think about it. Drones probably already in the air.
    You got lucky, thousands of people are going to be in random hotels this morning as their airlines work out how to get them where they’re supposed to be going.

    Unless they’re the huge 10kg six-rotor camera platform drones, they’re unlikely to do such serious damage to an aircraft that would lead to it crashing, but the authorities are rightly somewhat risk averse and always react to anything unauthorised flying in controlled airspace.

    If, as it looks, this is some form of protest, they could keep it going all day until the police find them. A lot of the modern hobby drones (in the £1k-£3k range) can be flown several kilometres from the user, and can be programmed to fly a set path and return without needing a signal from the ground.
    Surely a bigger concern would be if they've got explosives strapped to them? That's only got to hit an engine and there's a problem.
    The hobby drones can’t carry too much weight, but yes a drone carrying explosives could be a problem. While planes can continue to fly happily with an engine out, a bomb flown into one might damage the controls and systems on the wing.

    Thankfully today’s incident sounds more like the Plane Stupid mob or an environmental group, as opposed to anyone actually trying to bring down a plane.
    Have those protestors who chained themselves to a plane been sentenced yet? I've been trying to think of why I should feel sorry for them for facing possible prison sentences as there's been multiple sympathetic stories focusing on them, but I'm struggling.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited December 2018
    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    Johnson must be Corbyn's dream. The only LIKELY candidate he'd be cetain to beat.

    (Obviously he'd also beat Gove and Rees Mogg)

    Wrong, polling shows bar May the Tories tend to poll best against Corbyn under Johnson but worst under Hunt or Gove with Mogg and Javid in between
    I'm surprised. My guess would be that He'd repulse non Tory voters other candidates couldn't reach and a minority of Tory voters -Remainers and those who hate opportunists- would also refuse to vote for him
  • Options
    Earlier this year, new laws came into force banning any and all drones from flying above 400ft and within 1km of airport boundaries.

    Drone users who flout the boundary restrictions face an unlimited fine, up to five years in prison, or both.


    https://www.itv.com/news/2018-12-20/what-is-the-law-around-flying-drones/
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750
    edited December 2018
    Jonathan said:

    Leadsom on R4, really rather weak. Not entirely sure she understands what’s going on.

    Like many an MP at the moment. The gov at present is stumbling around just hoping for the bell to sound so they can return to their corner to get patched up.
  • Options
    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited December 2018
    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Leadsom on R4, really rather weak. Not entirely sure she understands what’s going on.

    Like many an MP at the moment. The gov at present is stumbling around just hoping for the bell to sound so they can return to their corner to get patched up.
    Kuenssberg was saying last night that May has got Olly Robbins working another magic unicorn to get the DUP onside which shows us several things.

    1) Olly Robbins is a wonderful beneficiary of white male privilege. Every time he's fucked up, May has rewarded him with failing upwards.

    2) Theresa May is incapable of learning from past experience.

    3) The Cabinet is still holding out for a Unicorn hero to save them from their grand no-deal bluff.

    4) The Cabinet do not believe the DUP or the Tory remainers are bluffing about a VONC.
This discussion has been closed.