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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Which will happen first? TMay to step down as PM or the UK to

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited December 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Which will happen first? TMay to step down as PM or the UK to leave the EU?

I rather like this betting market which asks which of the two events will happen first – Theresa May ceasing to be Prime Minister or the UK actually leaving the EU.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 7,063
    1
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 10,893
    Second like the Tories in Peterborough.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 22,041
    3rd rate Like Labour
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 18,581
    Fourth like Boris!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 55,950
    Given May is now secure for a year having won the no confidence vote by Tory MPs and is very stubborn and Brexit is due to occur in March then clearly the UK should leave the EU first whether Deal or No Deal unless we have EUref2 leading to Remain
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 11,402
    HYUFD said:

    Given May is now secure for a year having won the no confidence vote by Tory MPs and is very stubborn and Brexit is due to occur in March then clearly the UK should leave the EU first whether Deal or No Deal unless we have EUref2 leading to Remain

    And there are no surprises in politics. It’s brilliant that the bookies continue to offer such generous odds on certainties isn’t it...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 8,586
    HYUFD said:

    Given May is now secure for a year having won the no confidence vote by Tory MPs and is very stubborn and Brexit is due to occur in March then clearly the UK should leave the EU first whether Deal or No Deal unless we have EUref2 leading to Remain

    ... or an A50 extension for further negotiations.

    (Though I agree with you overall.)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,609
    May. In two grounds. One we might not leave at All. Two if her deal passes she might stand down for aleadership contest right away as the dup will bring her down and she knows the party does not want her leading them into the next election.
  • Once May’s deal is defeated, she can’t possibly stay and no one in the Tory Party would want her to. She would face a proper VNOC from Labour then, which she’d probably win but she would then be the news rather than policy which would be a massive distraction.

    With Labour currently on the back foot after Corbyn’s mad moment yesterday, and idiotic attempt at a VNOC which made the Keystone Cops look competent, she’d after to make way. She won’t be missed.

    As for Brexit, it might not happen at all. The chances of no deal or no Brexit must be about neck and neck.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,609
    tlg86 said:

    Second like the Tories in Peterborough.

    Could be worse if the candidate supports the deal and Farages NewKip stands
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 18,584
    malcolmg said:

    3rd rate Like Labour

    That's unexpectedly complimentary.

    As for the results, I demand a judge-led inquiry.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    Once May’s deal is defeated, she can’t possibly stay and no one in the Tory Party would want her to. She would face a proper VNOC from Labour then, which she’d probably win but she would then be the news rather than policy which would be a massive distraction.

    With Labour currently on the back foot after Corbyn’s mad moment yesterday, and idiotic attempt at a VNOC which made the Keystone Cops look competent, she’d after to make way. She won’t be missed.

    As for Brexit, it might not happen at all. The chances of no deal or no Brexit must be about neck and neck.

    Why do people insist on abbreviating it to VNOC?

    It’s VONC man!
  • HYUFD said:

    Given May is now secure for a year having won the no confidence vote by Tory MPs and is very stubborn and Brexit is due to occur in March then clearly the UK should leave the EU first whether Deal or No Deal unless we have EUref2 leading to Remain

    Or if Theresa May kicks the can down the road once more by asking for an extension (as opposed to revoking it).

    The problem with this market is there is no clear, rational route through to any particular outcome so we are left to bet on which six impossible things will happen before Brexit.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,028
    It is a fiendish bet isn't it.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    edited December 2018
    HYUFD said:

    Given May is now secure for a year having won the no confidence vote by Tory MPs and is very stubborn and Brexit is due to occur in March then clearly the UK should leave the EU first whether Deal or No Deal unless we have EUref2 leading to Remain

    Once her deal is defeated, I doubt she’d want to stay and I doubt the parliamentary party would want her to. They might admire her grit and determination but she is an uninspiring control freak who is a serial loser.
  • kle4 said:

    May. In two grounds. One we might not leave at All. Two if her deal passes she might stand down for aleadership contest right away as the dup will bring her down and she knows the party does not want her leading them into the next election.

    It was interesting to read a report that the DUP were in talks with HMG re allowing them (NI) to control air passenger duty and tax rates so they can compete against Dublin. More devolution in order to back the deal

    It does make sense but I cannot confirm how authentic the story is
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 55,950

    HYUFD said:

    Given May is now secure for a year having won the no confidence vote by Tory MPs and is very stubborn and Brexit is due to occur in March then clearly the UK should leave the EU first whether Deal or No Deal unless we have EUref2 leading to Remain

    Once her deal is defeated, I doubt she’d want to stay and I doubt the parliamentary party would want her to. They might admire her grit and determination but she is an uninspiring control freak who is a serial loser.
    The parliamentary party can do nothing about it and May will stick by her Deal to March
  • Lets hope Adonis never gets near government again:

  • Lets hope Adonis never gets near government again:

    He has definitely succumbed to the Brexit madness virus with that tweet.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 18,581
    On topic, if May lands her deal in January I cant see her being deposed until after Brexit is done, whatever the DUP might say (and rumour is anyway that they'll soon be on board).

    If on the other hand, she doesn't land her deal, the options divide into no deal Brexit or (more likely, given Parliament) routes leading to no (or significantly delayed) Brexit; in this latter case I'd say she's likely to resign and will be deposed if she does not. In the former case no-one will want to take over until the potential chaos of exit is over.

    So this bet is a close surrogate for the chances of Brexit happening in March, the difference being a scenario with a very short A50 extension for some practical reason, less the very small chance of May going under some bus over the Xmas break.

    The odds of Brexit on 29 March are indeed slightly longer than on Brexit before the end of May, hence relative to each other at least, the pricing looks accurate.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 1,489
    Anazina said:

    Once May’s deal is defeated, she can’t possibly stay and no one in the Tory Party would want her to. She would face a proper VNOC from Labour then, which she’d probably win but she would then be the news rather than policy which would be a massive distraction.

    With Labour currently on the back foot after Corbyn’s mad moment yesterday, and idiotic attempt at a VNOC which made the Keystone Cops look competent, she’d after to make way. She won’t be missed.

    As for Brexit, it might not happen at all. The chances of no deal or no Brexit must be about neck and neck.

    Why do people insist on abbreviating it to VNOC?

    It’s VONC man!
    That’s the kind of pedantry I expect on PB - I always give people the benefit of the doubt as m6 autocorrect is bonkers on my Ipad

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 12,131
    Interesting bit of news for those wondering if Trump will be the candidate in 2020:

    "South Carolina GOP could scrap 2020 primary to protect Trump"
    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/south-carolina-gop-could-scrap-2020-primary-to-protect-trump
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,609
    edited December 2018

    Lets hope Adonis never gets near government again:

    He has definitely succumbed to the Brexit madness virus with that tweet.
    I think he was patient zero.

    He's basically saying 'I value an impartialcivil service....except I dont'
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 18,584

    Lets hope Adonis never gets near government again:

    He should never have been near it to start with.

    There are very few people who are more ignorant and arrogant than Michael Gove with regard to education.

    But Lord Adonis is one of them.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 18,584

    Anazina said:

    Once May’s deal is defeated, she can’t possibly stay and no one in the Tory Party would want her to. She would face a proper VNOC from Labour then, which she’d probably win but she would then be the news rather than policy which would be a massive distraction.

    With Labour currently on the back foot after Corbyn’s mad moment yesterday, and idiotic attempt at a VNOC which made the Keystone Cops look competent, she’d after to make way. She won’t be missed.

    As for Brexit, it might not happen at all. The chances of no deal or no Brexit must be about neck and neck.

    Why do people insist on abbreviating it to VNOC?

    It’s VONC man!
    That’s the kind of pedantry I expect on PB - I always give people the benefit of the doubt as m6 autocorrect is bonkers on my Ipad

    Mine keeps changing 'because' to 'becuase' for some reason. Does anyone know how I change it?
  • Once May’s deal is defeated, she can’t possibly stay and no one in the Tory Party would want her to. She would face a proper VNOC from Labour then, which she’d probably win but she would then be the news rather than policy which would be a massive distraction.

    With Labour currently on the back foot after Corbyn’s mad moment yesterday, and idiotic attempt at a VNOC which made the Keystone Cops look competent, she’d after to make way. She won’t be missed.

    As for Brexit, it might not happen at all. The chances of no deal or no Brexit must be about neck and neck.

    You do not talk for the conservative party as a whole. Indeed are you even a voting member

    Furthermore, if the deal fails the DUP will not support a vnoc

    As far as the future outcome we cannot look past the meaningful vote and the order the amendments are taken and whether any will have majority support

    TM will stand down in due course but right now she is an asset to the party and has a great amount of support in the country, compared to any of the alternatives
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 12,453
    Staying well clear of this bet! By the way, Stewart Jackson sent out rather a nice, sympathetic tweet about his successor's downfall. Made me think better of him.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 16,671

    Lets hope Adonis never gets near government again:

    He has definitely succumbed to the Brexit madness virus with that tweet.
    It happened long before that.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 22,167

    Lets hope Adonis never gets near government again:

    Is he suggesting that the SC should ignore instructions to prepare? It’s the lack of preparedness that’s going to cause problems when we leave the EU.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 1,489

    Lets hope Adonis never gets near government again:

    He has definitely succumbed to the Brexit madness virus with that tweet.
    Unfortunately he is typical of a strain of thought that we mustn’t countenance the undesirable - even if it makes the undesirable more palatable if it happens. I won’t be keen on dying but I have made a will. I don’t want bad things to happen to me when I travel abroad but I have travel insurance. Adonis is typical of the mainly Urban stop Brexit brigade, the equivalent of the worst of the ERG / Ukip for whom any deal would be a bad deal.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,609
    ydoethur said:

    Anazina said:

    Once May’s deal is defeated, she can’t possibly stay and no one in the Tory Party would want her to. She would face a proper VNOC from Labour then, which she’d probably win but she would then be the news rather than policy which would be a massive distraction.

    With Labour currently on the back foot after Corbyn’s mad moment yesterday, and idiotic attempt at a VNOC which made the Keystone Cops look competent, she’d after to make way. She won’t be missed.

    As for Brexit, it might not happen at all. The chances of no deal or no Brexit must be about neck and neck.

    Why do people insist on abbreviating it to VNOC?

    It’s VONC man!
    That’s the kind of pedantry I expect on PB - I always give people the benefit of the doubt as m6 autocorrect is bonkers on my Ipad

    Mine keeps changing 'because' to 'becuase' for some reason. Does anyone know how I change it?
    No, but I expect it's because you've done it so many times it thinks you know what you're doing and accidentally overruled the correction at some point. Mine does that with woukd.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 18,584

    Staying well clear of this bet! By the way, Stewart Jackson sent out rather a nice, sympathetic tweet about his successor's downfall. Made me think better of him.

    William Hague once said the first rule of politics is to show magnanimity only when it is either irrelevant or actually damaging to your enemy.

    In this case both would seem to apply.
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634
    kle4 said:

    Lets hope Adonis never gets near government again:

    He has definitely succumbed to the Brexit madness virus with that tweet.
    I think he was patient zero.

    He's basically saying 'I value an impartialcivil service....except I dont'
    "Everything Before the But is Bollocks".
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 18,584

    Lets hope Adonis never gets near government again:

    He has definitely succumbed to the Brexit madness virus with that tweet.
    Unfortunately he is typical of a strain of thought
    The implication of that is that Adonis can think.

    May I ask what evidence you have for this?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,609

    Staying well clear of this bet! By the way, Stewart Jackson sent out rather a nice, sympathetic tweet about his successor's downfall. Made me think better of him.

    Curious as well given her troubles are it seems entirely of her own making. Which doesn't preclude sympathy but does usually limit it a bit.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    edited December 2018
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given May is now secure for a year having won the no confidence vote by Tory MPs and is very stubborn and Brexit is due to occur in March then clearly the UK should leave the EU first whether Deal or No Deal unless we have EUref2 leading to Remain

    Once her deal is defeated, I doubt she’d want to stay and I doubt the parliamentary party would want her to. They might admire her grit and determination but she is an uninspiring control freak who is a serial loser.
    The parliamentary party can do nothing about it and May will stick by her Deal to March
    No point in sticking with her deal once it’s defeated. After 21st Jan the only way to stop a hard Brexit is A50 extension or revocation. May is implacably opposed to both and Parliament gets to decide anyway.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 4,326

    It is a fiendish bet isn't it.

    It's too fuzzy and complicated for me. The two uncertain events are correlated in unfathomable ways. It's like a two horse race where the horses are connected by an elastic rope.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,609
    ydoethur said:

    Staying well clear of this bet! By the way, Stewart Jackson sent out rather a nice, sympathetic tweet about his successor's downfall. Made me think better of him.

    William Hague once said the first rule of politics is to show magnanimity only when it is either irrelevant or actually damaging to your enemy.

    In this case both would seem to apply.
    Applies to sport as well. See Hamilton telling people to go easy on Vettel.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,609
    I'll say this for Adonis at least- he's always been clear what he wants. Plenty of Mps agree with his aims but have waited until an opportunity presented to act on it. Which is more likely to work if less honest.
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634
    edited December 2018

    Lets hope Adonis never gets near government again:

    He has definitely succumbed to the Brexit madness virus with that tweet.
    Unfortunately he is typical of a strain of thought that we mustn’t countenance the undesirable - even if it makes the undesirable more palatable if it happens. I won’t be keen on dying but I have made a will. I don’t want bad things to happen to me when I travel abroad but I have travel insurance. Adonis is typical of the mainly Urban stop Brexit brigade, the equivalent of the worst of the ERG / Ukip for whom any deal would be a bad deal.
    He has achieved power and wealth and relevance (to an extent) without having to go to the trouble of winning any elections. He, at least, has an excuse for not understanding how fragile democracy is.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given May is now secure for a year having won the no confidence vote by Tory MPs and is very stubborn and Brexit is due to occur in March then clearly the UK should leave the EU first whether Deal or No Deal unless we have EUref2 leading to Remain

    Once her deal is defeated, I doubt she’d want to stay and I doubt the parliamentary party would want her to. They might admire her grit and determination but she is an uninspiring control freak who is a serial loser.
    The parliamentary party can do nothing about it and May will stick by her Deal to March
    No point in sticking with her deal once it’s defeated. After 21st Jan the only way to stop a hard Brexit is A50 extension or revocation. May is implacably opposed to both and Parliament gets to decide anyway.
    There are signs the DUP are softening their approach, the voters just want to move on, and the meaningful vote almost certainly will point to the future. It could be deal or remain in the end but it will not be no deal
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 1,489
    On topic

    I would be backing Leave the EU. Surely May has more of a chance of cobbling together the number to pass the deal with various sweeteners for different parties, or we leave under no deal, or we extend a50 and still leave before May leaves.

    No-one else wants to be leader whilst this is going on - if Corbyn really wanted to be leader to negotiate Brexit then he would have VONC the government. As soon as no general election is possible then he would have to back second referendum, and the Leave supporting Labour vote would be under pressure - personally I would see this as more desirable, than the remain side, as they have somewhere to go i.e. green / Lib Dem / nationalists. Unfortunately as we know Corbyn doesn’t like to change his personal views and this confirms he is a leaver. He wants leave but wants someone else to do it, and he can then sweep in afterwards. May has the same problem with remain voting Tories, and that is why it is important for her to get a practical deal through, to minimise economic disruption.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 22,167

    It is a fiendish bet isn't it.

    Yes, and there’s lots of moving parts on either outcome.

    The default outcome is that we leave the EU first, but there’s an awful lot that might happen in the next 100 days.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 1,489
    Donny43 said:

    Lets hope Adonis never gets near government again:

    He has definitely succumbed to the Brexit madness virus with that tweet.
    Unfortunately he is typical of a strain of thought that we mustn’t countenance the undesirable - even if it makes the undesirable more palatable if it happens. I won’t be keen on dying but I have made a will. I don’t want bad things to happen to me when I travel abroad but I have travel insurance. Adonis is typical of the mainly Urban stop Brexit brigade, the equivalent of the worst of the ERG / Ukip for whom any deal would be a bad deal.
    He has achieved power and wealth and relevance (to an extent) without having to go to the trouble of winning any elections. He, at least, has an excuse for not understanding how fragile democracy is.
    Apart from the fact that he is an oxbridge academic, who should be able to understand the problem of his claims. For example when a leading remainer calls for civil service boycott of government preparedness for Brexit, what does that mean for times of war, and other serious issues
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    edited December 2018

    Once May’s deal is defeated, she can’t possibly stay and no one in the Tory Party would want her to. She would face a proper VNOC from Labour then, which she’d probably win but she would then be the news rather than policy which would be a massive distraction.

    With Labour currently on the back foot after Corbyn’s mad moment yesterday, and idiotic attempt at a VNOC which made the Keystone Cops look competent, she’d after to make way. She won’t be missed.

    As for Brexit, it might not happen at all. The chances of no deal or no Brexit must be about neck and neck.

    You do not talk for the conservative party as a whole. Indeed are you even a voting member

    Furthermore, if the deal fails the DUP will not support a vnoc

    As far as the future outcome we cannot look past the meaningful vote and the order the amendments are taken and whether any will have majority support

    TM will stand down in due course but right now she is an asset to the party and has a great amount of support in the country, compared to any of the alternatives
    You don’t speak for the Tory Party either. Like me, you don’t speak for anyone but yourself but that is what the comments are for isn’t it - expressing individual opinions. As such, your high and mighty tone is both misplaced and risible frankly.

    The meaningful vote is meaningless. May’s deal won’t pass with the backstop and the backstop isn’t going to change. She pulled the vote for a reason.

    Once her deal is defeated, thoughts will turn to the inevitable leadership contest and the next general election. Whatever is left of her shattered authority and and power will ebb away and she’ll be gone. She’s been a total disaster and a worse Tory PM than either Eden or Heath which is really plumbing the depths.
  • kle4 said:

    Staying well clear of this bet! By the way, Stewart Jackson sent out rather a nice, sympathetic tweet about his successor's downfall. Made me think better of him.

    Curious as well given her troubles are it seems entirely of her own making. Which doesn't preclude sympathy but does usually limit it a bit.
    Bonfire of the Vanities redux?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 8,586
    edited December 2018
    ydoethur said:

    Lets hope Adonis never gets near government again:

    He has definitely succumbed to the Brexit madness virus with that tweet.
    Unfortunately he is typical of a strain of thought
    The implication of that is that Adonis can think.

    May I ask what evidence you have for this?
    He may not be your cup of tea, you may not agree with his thoughts, but he can surely think:

    "Adonis and his sister were placed in care because their father was working long hours and was not able to cope with sole parental responsibilities. Adonis lived in a council children's home until the age of 11, when he was awarded a local education authority grant to attend Kingham Hill School, a boarding school in Oxfordshire.

    Adonis gained admittance to Keble College, Oxford, where he graduated with a first-class Bachelor of Arts degree in Modern History in 1984. He continued his education at Oxford and subsequently gained a doctorate with a thesis on the British aristocracy of the late 19th century at Christ Church, before being appointed to a Fellowship in History and Politics at Nuffield College."


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Adonis,_Baron_Adonis
  • RogerRoger Posts: 11,312
    Knowing her ability to cling to office with a tenacity that would make a leech blush the bet is whether we Brexit in the next twelve months
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 18,581

    On topic

    I would be backing Leave the EU. Surely May has more of a chance of cobbling together the number to pass the deal with various sweeteners for different parties, or we leave under no deal, or we extend a50 and still leave before May leaves.

    No-one else wants to be leader whilst this is going on - if Corbyn really wanted to be leader to negotiate Brexit then he would have VONC the government. As soon as no general election is possible then he would have to back second referendum, and the Leave supporting Labour vote would be under pressure - personally I would see this as more desirable, than the remain side, as they have somewhere to go i.e. green / Lib Dem / nationalists. Unfortunately as we know Corbyn doesn’t like to change his personal views and this confirms he is a leaver. He wants leave but wants someone else to do it, and he can then sweep in afterwards. May has the same problem with remain voting Tories, and that is why it is important for her to get a practical deal through, to minimise economic disruption.

    The Tories have made their call and are the Leave party, whether their remainers like it or not. Many will likely drift away. Labour cant be a leave-lite party and so they face the choice of being the remain party and in turn losing some of their leaver support, or losing many of their remainers to the LibDems and Greens. Unless Corbyn really can keep the party's head down during the biggest crisis of our generation without making a decision, which would be remarkable.

    The strategic problem for the Tories is that dissatisfaction is more prevalent and enduring in politics than is gratitude; parties rarely benefit from thrusting major change upon us. And that the people they are driving away (generalising, business and many of the educated middle classes, particularly in the South East) are more reliable voters than those they are gaining in Mansfield and the like.
  • kle4 said:

    Lets hope Adonis never gets near government again:

    He has definitely succumbed to the Brexit madness virus with that tweet.
    I think he was patient zero.

    He's basically saying 'I value an impartialcivil service....except I dont'
    Neither party believes in an impartial civil service any more. That's why Whitehall is stuffed with SpAds and outsourced to whichever management consultants cosied up to the party in opposition.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 18,584

    ydoethur said:

    Lets hope Adonis never gets near government again:

    He has definitely succumbed to the Brexit madness virus with that tweet.
    Unfortunately he is typical of a strain of thought
    The implication of that is that Adonis can think.

    May I ask what evidence you have for this?
    He may not be your cup of tea, you may not agree with his thoughts, but he can surely think:

    "Adonis and his sister were placed in care because their father was working long hours and was not able to cope with sole parental responsibilities. Adonis lived in a council children's home until the age of 11, when he was awarded a local education authority grant to attend Kingham Hill School, a boarding school in Oxfordshire.

    Adonis gained admittance to Keble College, Oxford, where he graduated with a first-class Bachelor of Arts degree in Modern History in 1984. He continued his education at Oxford and subsequently gained a doctorate with a thesis on the British aristocracy of the late 19th century at Christ Church, before being appointed to a Fellowship in History and Politics at Nuffield College."


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Adonis,_Baron_Adonis
    Yes, I knew all that.

    I still say he can't think. Having a doctorate is no evidence of that (I should know...)

    What is especially bizarre incidentally is that he poses as an expert on education despite never having worked in it and having been privately educated. That's how he came into politics in the first place, as a policy wonk. His big idea as I recall were city academies, most of which were failures.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 55,950

    HYUFD said:

    Given May is now secure for a year having won the no confidence vote by Tory MPs and is very stubborn and Brexit is due to occur in March then clearly the UK should leave the EU first whether Deal or No Deal unless we have EUref2 leading to Remain

    Or if Theresa May kicks the can down the road once more by asking for an extension (as opposed to revoking it).

    The problem with this market is there is no clear, rational route through to any particular outcome so we are left to bet on which six impossible things will happen before Brexit.
    Only if that extension is past December
  • kle4 said:

    Staying well clear of this bet! By the way, Stewart Jackson sent out rather a nice, sympathetic tweet about his successor's downfall. Made me think better of him.

    Curious as well given her troubles are it seems entirely of her own making. Which doesn't preclude sympathy but does usually limit it a bit.
    There are some people who are very critical of law-breaking, except where it concerns road traffic offences such as speeding.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given May is now secure for a year having won the no confidence vote by Tory MPs and is very stubborn and Brexit is due to occur in March then clearly the UK should leave the EU first whether Deal or No Deal unless we have EUref2 leading to Remain

    Once her deal is defeated, I doubt she’d want to stay and I doubt the parliamentary party would want her to. They might admire her grit and determination but she is an uninspiring control freak who is a serial loser.
    The parliamentary party can do nothing about it and May will stick by her Deal to March
    No point in sticking with her deal once it’s defeated. After 21st Jan the only way to stop a hard Brexit is A50 extension or revocation. May is implacably opposed to both and Parliament gets to decide anyway.
    There are signs the DUP are softening their approach, the voters just want to move on, and the meaningful vote almost certainly will point to the future. It could be deal or remain in the end but it will not be no deal
    There are signs of life on Mars too - doesn’t mean there is any. Of course the DUP are going to play May for what they can. They’d be fools not to and they are much better negotiators than she is. Doesn’t mean they are going to soften their approach though. As the EU have said any trade deal will only be for GB not NI they would be signing up to a United Ireland if they supported May. How likely is that ?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 18,581
    What if on March 29th, May announces that her job is done and retires? ;)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 8,586
    edited December 2018
    Blimey, now I really do fear the end of the world is nigh!...

    ‘We are becoming a joke’: Germans turn on Deutsche Bahn
    Cancelled trains and lengthy delays have turned a once-trusted railway system into a source of national shame


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/20/trains-on-time-germans-deutsche-bahn-railway
  • Anazina said:

    Once May’s deal is defeated, she can’t possibly stay and no one in the Tory Party would want her to. She would face a proper VNOC from Labour then, which she’d probably win but she would then be the news rather than policy which would be a massive distraction.

    With Labour currently on the back foot after Corbyn’s mad moment yesterday, and idiotic attempt at a VNOC which made the Keystone Cops look competent, she’d after to make way. She won’t be missed.

    As for Brexit, it might not happen at all. The chances of no deal or no Brexit must be about neck and neck.

    Why do people insist on abbreviating it to VNOC?

    It’s VONC man!
    That’s the kind of pedantry I expect on PB - I always give people the benefit of the doubt as m6 autocorrect is bonkers on my Ipad

    *iPad...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 55,950

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given May is now secure for a year having won the no confidence vote by Tory MPs and is very stubborn and Brexit is due to occur in March then clearly the UK should leave the EU first whether Deal or No Deal unless we have EUref2 leading to Remain

    Once her deal is defeated, I doubt she’d want to stay and I doubt the parliamentary party would want her to. They might admire her grit and determination but she is an uninspiring control freak who is a serial loser.
    The parliamentary party can do nothing about it and May will stick by her Deal to March
    No point in sticking with her deal once it’s defeated. After 21st Jan the only way to stop a hard Brexit is A50 extension or revocation. May is implacably opposed to both and Parliament gets to decide anyway.
    Thanks to the Grieve amendment being passed the Commons will likely vote on both Norway plus Customs Union and EUref2 motions before the Deal is voted on or after the Deal is defeated on first vote.

    If both lose the Deal will be the only alternative to No Deal which is why I think it could well be passed by Brexit Day with May leading it through. If she goes it will likely after Brexit in whatever form, not before
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 52,384
    IanB2 said:

    What if on March 29th, May announces that her job is done and retires? ;)

    Unless we've got an extension or Lidington is appointed that very same day, Brexit 1st wins.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 18,581
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Anazina said:

    Once May’s deal is defeated, she can’t possibly stay and no one in the Tory Party would want her to. She would face a proper VNOC from Labour then, which she’d probably win but she would then be the news rather than policy which would be a massive distraction.

    With Labour currently on the back foot after Corbyn’s mad moment yesterday, and idiotic attempt at a VNOC which made the Keystone Cops look competent, she’d after to make way. She won’t be missed.

    As for Brexit, it might not happen at all. The chances of no deal or no Brexit must be about neck and neck.

    Why do people insist on abbreviating it to VNOC?

    It’s VONC man!
    That’s the kind of pedantry I expect on PB - I always give people the benefit of the doubt as m6 autocorrect is bonkers on my Ipad

    Mine keeps changing 'because' to 'becuase' for some reason. Does anyone know how I change it?
    No, but I expect it's because you've done it so many times it thinks you know what you're doing and accidentally overruled the correction at some point. Mine does that with woukd.
    Yes, that's happened to me. The solution appears to be to keep overriding it back to the correct spelling, and be extra careful not to accept the wrong spelling in haste, and eventually it gets the message,
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,215
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Lets hope Adonis never gets near government again:

    He has definitely succumbed to the Brexit madness virus with that tweet.
    Unfortunately he is typical of a strain of thought
    The implication of that is that Adonis can think.

    May I ask what evidence you have for this?
    He may not be your cup of tea, you may not agree with his thoughts, but he can surely think:

    "Adonis and his sister were placed in care because their father was working long hours and was not able to cope with sole parental responsibilities. Adonis lived in a council children's home until the age of 11, when he was awarded a local education authority grant to attend Kingham Hill School, a boarding school in Oxfordshire.

    Adonis gained admittance to Keble College, Oxford, where he graduated with a first-class Bachelor of Arts degree in Modern History in 1984. He continued his education at Oxford and subsequently gained a doctorate with a thesis on the British aristocracy of the late 19th century at Christ Church, before being appointed to a Fellowship in History and Politics at Nuffield College."


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Adonis,_Baron_Adonis
    Yes, I knew all that.

    I still say he can't think. Having a doctorate is no evidence of that (I should know...)

    What is especially bizarre incidentally is that he poses as an expert on education despite never having worked in it and having been privately educated. That's how he came into politics in the first place, as a policy wonk. His big idea as I recall were city academies, most of which were failures.
    How on Earth does being privately educated preclude one from being an expert on education? NB I’m not suggesting Lord Adonis is.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 55,950

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given May is now secure for a year having won the no confidence vote by Tory MPs and is very stubborn and Brexit is due to occur in March then clearly the UK should leave the EU first whether Deal or No Deal unless we have EUref2 leading to Remain

    Once her deal is defeated, I doubt she’d want to stay and I doubt the parliamentary party would want her to. They might admire her grit and determination but she is an uninspiring control freak who is a serial loser.
    The parliamentary party can do nothing about it and May will stick by her Deal to March
    No point in sticking with her deal once it’s defeated. After 21st Jan the only way to stop a hard Brexit is A50 extension or revocation. May is implacably opposed to both and Parliament gets to decide anyway.
    There are signs the DUP are softening their approach, the voters just want to move on, and the meaningful vote almost certainly will point to the future. It could be deal or remain in the end but it will not be no deal
    There are signs of life on Mars too - doesn’t mean there is any. Of course the DUP are going to play May for what they can. They’d be fools not to and they are much better negotiators than she is. Doesn’t mean they are going to soften their approach though. As the EU have said any trade deal will only be for GB not NI they would be signing up to a United Ireland if they supported May. How likely is that ?
    Actually polls show most Northern Irish voters back the backstop it is a hard border that would make them most likely to vote for a United Ireland
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 22,167
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Staying well clear of this bet! By the way, Stewart Jackson sent out rather a nice, sympathetic tweet about his successor's downfall. Made me think better of him.

    William Hague once said the first rule of politics is to show magnanimity only when it is either irrelevant or actually damaging to your enemy.

    In this case both would seem to apply.
    Applies to sport as well. See Hamilton telling people to go easy on Vettel.
    That was funny. Using only nice words to stab an opponent square in the back. Especially an opponent who had choked worse than Spurs at the end of the previous season. Then Vettel went and choked again.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 11,880
    This is essentially a bet on whether the deal passes in January.
  • IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Anazina said:

    Once May’s deal is defeated, she can’t possibly stay and no one in the Tory Party would want her to. She would face a proper VNOC from Labour then, which she’d probably win but she would then be the news rather than policy which would be a massive distraction.

    With Labour currently on the back foot after Corbyn’s mad moment yesterday, and idiotic attempt at a VNOC which made the Keystone Cops look competent, she’d after to make way. She won’t be missed.

    As for Brexit, it might not happen at all. The chances of no deal or no Brexit must be about neck and neck.

    Why do people insist on abbreviating it to VNOC?

    It’s VONC man!
    That’s the kind of pedantry I expect on PB - I always give people the benefit of the doubt as m6 autocorrect is bonkers on my Ipad

    Mine keeps changing 'because' to 'becuase' for some reason. Does anyone know how I change it?
    No, but I expect it's because you've done it so many times it thinks you know what you're doing and accidentally overruled the correction at some point. Mine does that with woukd.
    Yes, that's happened to me. The solution appears to be to keep overriding it back to the correct spelling, and be extra careful not to accept the wrong spelling in haste, and eventually it gets the message,
    On Samsung if you have the keyboard showing predictive words above the keyboard then any typo predictions you can press and hold on them and it will give an option to delete it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 55,950
    edited December 2018

    Once May’s deal is defeated, she can’t possibly stay and no one in the Tory Party would want her to. She would face a proper VNOC from Labour then, which she’d probably win but she would then be the news rather than policy which would be a massive distraction.

    With Labour currently on the back foot after Corbyn’s mad moment yesterday, and idiotic attempt at a VNOC which made the Keystone Cops look competent, she’d after to make way. She won’t be missed.

    As for Brexit, it might not happen at all. The chances of no deal or no Brexit must be about neck and neck.

    You do not talk for the conservative party as a whole. Indeed are you even a voting member

    Furthermore, if the deal fails the DUP will not support a vnoc

    As far as the future outcome we cannot look past the meaningful vote and the order the amendments are taken and whether any will have majority support

    TM will stand down in due course but right now she is an asset to the party and has a great amount of support in the country, compared to any of the alternatives
    You don’t speak for the Tory Party either. Like me, you don’t speak for anyone but yourself but that is what the comments are for isn’t it - expressing individual opinions. As such, your high and mighty tone is both misplaced and risible frankly.

    The meaningful vote is meaningless. May’s deal won’t pass with the backstop and the backstop isn’t going to change. She pulled the vote for a reason.

    Once her deal is defeated, thoughts will turn to the inevitable leadership contest and the next general election. Whatever is left of her shattered authority and and power will ebb away and she’ll be gone. She’s been a total disaster and a worse Tory PM than either Eden or Heath which is really plumbing the depths.
    BigG speaks sense on this unlike your fanaticism.

    May has got a Deal which is more than most would have and got 42% in 2017
  • Once May’s deal is defeated, she can’t possibly stay and no one in the Tory Party would want her to. She would face a proper VNOC from Labour then, which she’d probably win but she would then be the news rather than policy which would be a massive distraction.

    With Labour currently on the back foot after Corbyn’s mad moment yesterday, and idiotic attempt at a VNOC which made the Keystone Cops look competent, she’d after to make way. She won’t be missed.

    As for Brexit, it might not happen at all. The chances of no deal or no Brexit must be about neck and neck.

    You do not talk for the conservative party as a whole. Indeed are you even a voting member

    Furthermore, if the deal fails the DUP will not support a vnoc

    As far as the future outcome we cannot look past the meaningful vote and the order the amendments are taken and whether any will have majority support

    TM will stand down in due course but right now she is an asset to the party and has a great amount of support in the country, compared to any of the alternatives
    You don’t speak for the Tory Party either. Like me, you don’t speak for anyone but yourself but that is what the comments are for isn’t it - expressing individual opinions. As such, your high and mighty tone is both misplaced and risible frankly.

    The meaningful vote is meaningless. May’s deal won’t pass with the backstop and the backstop isn’t going to change. She pulled the vote for a reason.

    Once her deal is defeated, thoughts will turn to the inevitable leadership contest and the next general election. Whatever is left of her shattered authority and and power will ebb away and she’ll be gone. She’s been a total disaster and a worse Tory PM than either Eden or Heath which is really plumbing the depths.
    Are you a member of the conservative party
  • Worth reading all the replies on the original Adonis tweet:



    Has a go at Jill Rutter and the IoG:

    This response, by the reputable @instituteforgov which I once directed, shows how debased the civil service & the state have become by Brexit

    He's demonstrably unfit for office ever again.
  • Blimey, now I really do fear the end of the world is nigh!...

    ‘We are becoming a joke’: Germans turn on Deutsche Bahn
    Cancelled trains and lengthy delays have turned a once-trusted railway system into a source of national shame


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/20/trains-on-time-germans-deutsche-bahn-railway

    They clearly just need to nationalise it, and that would solve all their problems overnight.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 18,581
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given May is now secure for a year having won the no confidence vote by Tory MPs and is very stubborn and Brexit is due to occur in March then clearly the UK should leave the EU first whether Deal or No Deal unless we have EUref2 leading to Remain

    Once her deal is defeated, I doubt she’d want to stay and I doubt the parliamentary party would want her to. They might admire her grit and determination but she is an uninspiring control freak who is a serial loser.
    The parliamentary party can do nothing about it and May will stick by her Deal to March
    No point in sticking with her deal once it’s defeated. After 21st Jan the only way to stop a hard Brexit is A50 extension or revocation. May is implacably opposed to both and Parliament gets to decide anyway.
    Thanks to the Grieve amendment being passed the Commons will likely vote on both Norway plus Customs Union and EUref2 motions before the Deal is voted on or after the Deal is defeated on first vote.

    If both lose the Deal will be the only alternative to No Deal which is why I think it could well be passed by Brexit Day with May leading it through. If she goes it will likely after Brexit in whatever form, not before
    In the alternative scenario, of second referendums or delays for new options like Norway, a GE is very likely before Brexit happens, or of course Brexit doesn't happen in which case there'll be a GE along at some point.

    So a clever bet might be to back BOTH Brexit before ex-May at 2.24 AND a GE before Brexit at 2.38? Both bets are better than evens so you win in every circumstance except where May goes before Brexit AND Brexit is before a GE.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given May is now secure for a year having won the no confidence vote by Tory MPs and is very stubborn and Brexit is due to occur in March then clearly the UK should leave the EU first whether Deal or No Deal unless we have EUref2 leading to Remain

    Or if Theresa May kicks the can down the road once more by asking for an extension (as opposed to revoking it).

    The problem with this market is there is no clear, rational route through to any particular outcome so we are left to bet on which six impossible things will happen before Brexit.
    Only if that extension is past December
    I'm starting to wonder how long is Theresa May's walk to church at Christmas. The Conservatives have never won a February general election.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_Kingdom_general_elections
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given May is now secure for a year having won the no confidence vote by Tory MPs and is very stubborn and Brexit is due to occur in March then clearly the UK should leave the EU first whether Deal or No Deal unless we have EUref2 leading to Remain

    Once her deal is defeated, I doubt she’d want to stay and I doubt the parliamentary party would want her to. They might admire her grit and determination but she is an uninspiring control freak who is a serial loser.
    The parliamentary party can do nothing about it and May will stick by her Deal to March
    No point in sticking with her deal once it’s defeated. After 21st Jan the only way to stop a hard Brexit is A50 extension or revocation. May is implacably opposed to both and Parliament gets to decide anyway.
    There are signs the DUP are softening their approach, the voters just want to move on, and the meaningful vote almost certainly will point to the future. It could be deal or remain in the end but it will not be no deal
    There are signs of life on Mars too - doesn’t mean there is any. Of course the DUP are going to play May for what they can. They’d be fools not to and they are much better negotiators than she is. Doesn’t mean they are going to soften their approach though. As the EU have said any trade deal will only be for GB not NI they would be signing up to a United Ireland if they supported May. How likely is that ?
    It would not fit your narrative if the DUP obtained further devolution and bowed to the enormous pressure they are coming under from their core votes in NI and the 63% of NI voters who wannt to accept the deal.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,173

    Lets hope Adonis never gets near government again:

    The Civil Servants never to employ are those who have actually negotiated May's Brexit Deal.....
  • Blimey, now I really do fear the end of the world is nigh!...

    ‘We are becoming a joke’: Germans turn on Deutsche Bahn
    Cancelled trains and lengthy delays have turned a once-trusted railway system into a source of national shame


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/20/trains-on-time-germans-deutsche-bahn-railway

    They clearly just need to nationalise it, and that would solve all their problems overnight.
    Perhaps the Germans should reinvest some of those cheques Philip Hammond sends them for running our trains.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 18,581
    HYUFD said:

    Once May’s deal is defeated, she can’t possibly stay and no one in the Tory Party would want her to. She would face a proper VNOC from Labour then, which she’d probably win but she would then be the news rather than policy which would be a massive distraction.

    With Labour currently on the back foot after Corbyn’s mad moment yesterday, and idiotic attempt at a VNOC which made the Keystone Cops look competent, she’d after to make way. She won’t be missed.

    As for Brexit, it might not happen at all. The chances of no deal or no Brexit must be about neck and neck.

    You do not talk for the conservative party as a whole. Indeed are you even a voting member

    Furthermore, if the deal fails the DUP will not support a vnoc

    As far as the future outcome we cannot look past the meaningful vote and the order the amendments are taken and whether any will have majority support

    TM will stand down in due course but right now she is an asset to the party and has a great amount of support in the country, compared to any of the alternatives
    You don’t speak for the Tory Party either. Like me, you don’t speak for anyone but yourself but that is what the comments are for isn’t it - expressing individual opinions. As such, your high and mighty tone is both misplaced and risible frankly.

    The meaningful vote is meaningless. May’s deal won’t pass with the backstop and the backstop isn’t going to change. She pulled the vote for a reason.

    Once her deal is defeated, thoughts will turn to the inevitable leadership contest and the next general election. Whatever is left of her shattered authority and and power will ebb away and she’ll be gone. She’s been a total disaster and a worse Tory PM than either Eden or Heath which is really plumbing the depths.
    BigG speaks sense on this unlike your fanaticism.

    May has got a Deal which is more than most would have and got 42% in 2017
    True. And the chance of her getting it through, in the end, are higher than people are currently estimating (although the penny is starting to drop). It's a shame there isn't a betting opportunity, since Betfair closed the "deal agreed in 2018" market and there isn't an equivalent for 2019. I wouldn't want to tie myself to 29 March since there are clearly various scenarios where we could want or be forced to delay.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 18,581

    Blimey, now I really do fear the end of the world is nigh!...

    ‘We are becoming a joke’: Germans turn on Deutsche Bahn
    Cancelled trains and lengthy delays have turned a once-trusted railway system into a source of national shame


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/20/trains-on-time-germans-deutsche-bahn-railway

    I travelled on DB in the summer; when the announcement of significant delay came over the tannoy it is fair to say that the resigned looks on the faces of the other passengers made me feel very much at home.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,173
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Once May’s deal is defeated, she can’t possibly stay and no one in the Tory Party would want her to. She would face a proper VNOC from Labour then, which she’d probably win but she would then be the news rather than policy which would be a massive distraction.

    With Labour currently on the back foot after Corbyn’s mad moment yesterday, and idiotic attempt at a VNOC which made the Keystone Cops look competent, she’d after to make way. She won’t be missed.

    As for Brexit, it might not happen at all. The chances of no deal or no Brexit must be about neck and neck.

    You do not talk for the conservative party as a whole. Indeed are you even a voting member

    Furthermore, if the deal fails the DUP will not support a vnoc

    As far as the future outcome we cannot look past the meaningful vote and the order the amendments are taken and whether any will have majority support

    TM will stand down in due course but right now she is an asset to the party and has a great amount of support in the country, compared to any of the alternatives
    You don’t speak for the Tory Party either. Like me, you don’t speak for anyone but yourself but that is what the comments are for isn’t it - expressing individual opinions. As such, your high and mighty tone is both misplaced and risible frankly.

    The meaningful vote is meaningless. May’s deal won’t pass with the backstop and the backstop isn’t going to change. She pulled the vote for a reason.

    Once her deal is defeated, thoughts will turn to the inevitable leadership contest and the next general election. Whatever is left of her shattered authority and and power will ebb away and she’ll be gone. She’s been a total disaster and a worse Tory PM than either Eden or Heath which is really plumbing the depths.
    BigG speaks sense on this unlike your fanaticism.

    May has got a Deal which is more than most would have and got 42% in 2017
    True. And the chance of her getting it through, in the end, are higher than people are currently estimating (although the penny is starting to drop). It's a shame there isn't a betting opportunity, since Betfair closed the "deal agreed in 2018" market and there isn't an equivalent for 2019. I wouldn't want to tie myself to 29 March since there are clearly various scenarios where we could want or be forced to delay.
    The screeching of Lord Adonis demonstrates the penny is starting to drop.

    It's May's Deal or No Deal. Choose, Remainers.....
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 18,581

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Once May’s deal is defeated, she can’t possibly stay and no one in the Tory Party would want her to. She would face a proper VNOC from Labour then, which she’d probably win but she would then be the news rather than policy which would be a massive distraction.

    With Labour currently on the back foot after Corbyn’s mad moment yesterday, and idiotic attempt at a VNOC which made the Keystone Cops look competent, she’d after to make way. She won’t be missed.

    As for Brexit, it might not happen at all. The chances of no deal or no Brexit must be about neck and neck.

    You do not talk for the conservative party as a whole. Indeed are you even a voting member

    Furthermore, if the deal fails the DUP will not support a vnoc

    As far as the future outcome we cannot look past the meaningful vote and the order the amendments are taken and whether any will have majority support

    TM will stand down in due course but right now she is an asset to the party and has a great amount of support in the country, compared to any of the alternatives
    You don’t speak for the Tory Party either. Like me, you don’t speak for anyone but yourself but that is what the comments are for isn’t it - expressing individual opinions. As such, your high and mighty tone is both misplaced and risible frankly.

    The meaningful vote is meaningless. May’s deal won’t pass with the backstop and the backstop isn’t going to change. She pulled the vote for a reason.

    Once her deal is defeated, thoughts will turn to the inevitable leadership contest and the next general election. Whatever is left of her shattered authority and and power will ebb away and she’ll be gone. She’s been a total disaster and a worse Tory PM than either Eden or Heath which is really plumbing the depths.
    BigG speaks sense on this unlike your fanaticism.

    May has got a Deal which is more than most would have and got 42% in 2017
    True. And the chance of her getting it through, in the end, are higher than people are currently estimating (although the penny is starting to drop). It's a shame there isn't a betting opportunity, since Betfair closed the "deal agreed in 2018" market and there isn't an equivalent for 2019. I wouldn't want to tie myself to 29 March since there are clearly various scenarios where we could want or be forced to delay.
    The screeching of Lord Adonis demonstrates the penny is starting to drop.

    It's May's Deal or No Deal. Choose, Remainers.....
    No, it's actually still May's Deal or No Brexit, but you are right that the choice you pose is working toward making May's Deal more likely than No Brexit.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 18,584
    RoyalBlue said:

    How on Earth does being privately educated preclude one from being an expert on education? NB I’m not suggesting Lord Adonis is.

    I'll rephrase. He posed as an expert on *state* education despite having no experience whatsoever of it as either a pupil or as a teacher or even as an administrator. Private education is somewhat different especially boarding schools. Or to put it bluntly, solutions which make sense with a class of 9 make no sense whatsoever in a class of 34. Can people who have been in that class of 9 understand that? Yes, if they subsequently go and work in it. Otherwise, it's not impossible but it's very unlikely. And incidentally this was something of an issue with Gove too.

    Put it this way, the average receptionist in a comprehensive would have known far more about state schooling than him, because they spend a lot of time dealing with children (in my experience). A cover supervisor is an expert, because of the nature of the role - indeed, probably they see more of education than I do even as somebody with temporary school-wide SLT responsibilities.

    But he posed as an expert, and got into the Lords, with disastrous results. He never really seemed to learn the limits of his own ignorance. There was a very interesting list which unfortunately I can't track down, of what happened to his experimental schools. All but one were in a worse mess than when he found them - unbelievably. And then he went to Transport...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 18,584
    IanB2 said:

    Blimey, now I really do fear the end of the world is nigh!...

    ‘We are becoming a joke’: Germans turn on Deutsche Bahn
    Cancelled trains and lengthy delays have turned a once-trusted railway system into a source of national shame


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/20/trains-on-time-germans-deutsche-bahn-railway

    I travelled on DB in the summer; when the announcement of significant delay came over the tannoy it is fair to say that the resigned looks on the faces of the other passengers made me feel very much at home.
    The train not Arrivang is a common occurrence?

    I'll get my coat. Have a good morning.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 3,520

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Once May’s deal is defeated, she can’t possibly stay and no one in the Tory Party would want her to. She would face a proper VNOC from Labour then, which she’d probably win but she would then be the news rather than policy which would be a massive distraction.

    With Labour currently on the back foot after Corbyn’s mad moment yesterday, and idiotic attempt at a VNOC which made the Keystone Cops look competent, she’d after to make way. She won’t be missed.

    As for Brexit, it might not happen at all. The chances of no deal or no Brexit must be about neck and neck.

    You do not talk for the conservative party as a whole. Indeed are you even a voting member

    Furthermore, if the deal fails the DUP will not support a vnoc

    As far as the future outcome we cannot look past the meaningful vote and the order the amendments are taken and whether any will have majority support

    TM will stand down in due course but right now she is an asset to the party and has a great amount of support in the country, compared to any of the alternatives
    You don’t speak for the Tory Party either. Like me, you don’t speak for anyone but yourself but that is what the comments are for isn’t it - expressing individual opinions. As such, your high and mighty tone is both misplaced and risible frankly.

    The meaningful vote is meaningless. May’s deal won’t pass with the backstop and the backstop isn’t going to change. She pulled the vote for a reason.

    Once her deal is defeated, thoughts will turn to the inevitable leadership contest and the next general election. Whatever is left of her shattered authority and and power will ebb away and she’ll be gone. She’s been a total disaster and a worse Tory PM than either Eden or Heath which is really plumbing the depths.
    BigG speaks sense on this unlike your fanaticism.

    May has got a Deal which is more than most would have and got 42% in 2017
    True. And the chance of her getting it through, in the end, are higher than people are currently estimating (although the penny is starting to drop). It's a shame there isn't a betting opportunity, since Betfair closed the "deal agreed in 2018" market and there isn't an equivalent for 2019. I wouldn't want to tie myself to 29 March since there are clearly various scenarios where we could want or be forced to delay.
    The screeching of Lord Adonis demonstrates the penny is starting to drop.

    It's May's Deal or No Deal. Choose, Remainers.....
    I'd rather have No Deal.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 23,815

    Blimey, now I really do fear the end of the world is nigh!...

    ‘We are becoming a joke’: Germans turn on Deutsche Bahn
    Cancelled trains and lengthy delays have turned a once-trusted railway system into a source of national shame


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/20/trains-on-time-germans-deutsche-bahn-railway

    They clearly just need to nationalise it, and that would solve all their problems overnight.
    Perhaps the Germans should reinvest some of those cheques Philip Hammond sends them for running our trains.
    How about the cheques they send us when they don't make money? ;)
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 19,438
    edited December 2018

    Blimey, now I really do fear the end of the world is nigh!...

    ‘We are becoming a joke’: Germans turn on Deutsche Bahn
    Cancelled trains and lengthy delays have turned a once-trusted railway system into a source of national shame


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/20/trains-on-time-germans-deutsche-bahn-railway

    even Merkelini cant make the trains run on time
  • IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Once May’s deal is defeated, she can’t possibly stay and no one in the Tory Party would want her to. She would face a proper VNOC from Labour then, which she’d probably win but she would then be the news rather than policy which would be a massive distraction.

    As for Brexit, it might not happen at all. The chances of no deal or no Brexit must be about neck and neck.

    You do not talk for the conservative party as a whole. Indeed are you even a voting member

    Furthermore, if the deal fails the DUP will not support a vnoc

    As far as the future outcome we cannot look past the meaningful vote and the order the amendments are taken and whether any will have majority support

    TM will stand down in due course but right now she is an asset to the party and has a great amount of support in the country, compared to any of the alternatives
    You don’t speak for the Tory Party either. Like me, you don’t speak for anyone but yourself but that is what the comments are for isn’t it - expressing individual opinions. As such, your high and mighty tone is both misplaced and risible frankly.

    The meaningful vote is meaningless. May’s deal won’t pass with the backstop and the backstop isn’t going to change. She pulled the vote for a reason.

    Once her deal is defeated, thoughts will turn to the inevitable leadership contest and the next general election. Whatever is left of her shattered authority and and power will ebb away and she’ll be gone. She’s been a total disaster and a worse Tory PM than either Eden or Heath which is really plumbing the depths.
    BigG speaks sense on this unlike your fanaticism.

    May has got a Deal which is more than most would have and got 42% in 2017
    True. And the chance of her getting it through, in the end, are higher than people are currently estimating (although the penny is starting to drop). It's a shame there isn't a betting opportunity, since Betfair closed the "deal agreed in 2018" market and there isn't an equivalent for 2019. I wouldn't want to tie myself to 29 March since there are clearly various scenarios where we could want or be forced to delay.
    The screeching of Lord Adonis demonstrates the penny is starting to drop.

    It's May's Deal or No Deal. Choose, Remainers.....
    No, it's actually still May's Deal or No Brexit, but you are right that the choice you pose is working toward making May's Deal more likely than No Brexit.
    +1
  • HYUFD said:

    Once May’s deal is defeated, she can’t possibly stay and no one in the Tory Party would want her to. She would face a proper VNOC from Labour then, which she’d probably win but she would then be the news rather than policy which would be a massive distraction.

    With Labour currently on the back foot after Corbyn’s mad moment yesterday, and idiotic attempt at a VNOC which made the Keystone Cops look competent, she’d after to make way. She won’t be missed.

    As for Brexit, it might not happen at all. The chances of no deal or no Brexit must be about neck and neck.

    You do not talk for the conservative party as a whole. Indeed are you even a voting member

    Furthermore, if the deal fails the DUP will not support a vnoc

    As far as the future outcome we cannot look past the meaningful vote and the order the amendments are taken and whether any will have majority support

    TM will stand down in due course but right now she is an asset to the party and has a great amount of support in the country, compared to any of the alternatives
    You don’t speak for the Tory Party either. Like me, you don’t speak for anyone but yourself but that is what the comments are for isn’t it - expressing individual opinions. As such, your high and mighty tone is both misplaced and risible frankly.

    The meaningful vote is meaningless. May’s deal won’t pass with the backstop and the backstop isn’t going to change. She pulled the vote for a reason.

    Once her deal is defeated, thoughts will turn to the inevitable leadership contest and the next general election. Whatever is left of her shattered authority and and power will ebb away and she’ll be gone. She’s been a total disaster and a worse Tory PM than either Eden or Heath which is really plumbing the depths.
    BigG speaks sense on this unlike your fanaticism.

    May has got a Deal which is more than most would have and got 42% in 2017
    More than most?

    She didn't do anything impressive or original. She signed whatever Barnier put in front of her. Barnier wrote and got a deal, May is nothing more than a glorified secretary signing his deal on behalf of the UK. Anyone else could have done that too.
  • Thread on 'Is there a Customs Need for the Backstop?':

  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 11,537
    edited December 2018
    RoyalBlue said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Lets hope Adonis never gets near government again:

    He has definitely succumbed to the Brexit madness virus with that tweet.
    Unfortunately he is typical of a strain of thought
    The implication of that is that Adonis can think.

    May I ask what evidence you have for this?
    He may not be your cup of tea, you may not agree with his thoughts, but he can surely think:

    "Adonis and his sister were placed in care because their father was working long hours and was not able to cope with sole parental responsibilities. Adonis lived in a council children's home until the age of 11, when he was awarded a local education authority grant to attend Kingham Hill School, a boarding school in Oxfordshire.

    Adonis gained admittance to Keble College, Oxford, where he graduated with a first-class Bachelor of Arts degree in Modern History in 1984. He continued his education at Oxford and subsequently gained a doctorate with a thesis on the British aristocracy of the late 19th century at Christ Church, before being appointed to a Fellowship in History and Politics at Nuffield College."


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Adonis,_Baron_Adonis
    Yes, I knew all that.

    I still say he can't think. Having a doctorate is no evidence of that (I should know...)

    What is especially bizarre incidentally is that he poses as an expert on education despite never having worked in it and having been privately educated. That's how he came into politics in the first place, as a policy wonk. His big idea as I recall were city academies, most of which were failures.
    How on Earth does being privately educated preclude one from being an expert on education? NB I’m not suggesting Lord Adonis is.
    Perhaps they are separate points: Adonis is (a) not an expert, (b) has no professional experience of state secondary education, and (c) was not even a consumer of it.

    The tragedy of education is we each have an opinion, and often imagine this amounts to expertise, based entirely on our own schooling. It does not extend to other fields. No-one says, I've had a bad cold so here is how we should use Crispr to edit virus DNA. But ask about the history syllabus or synthetic phonics and ministers and journalists can debate all day.
  • Thread on 'Is there a Customs Need for the Backstop?':

    QTWAIN
  • On topic

    I would be backing Leave the EU. Surely May has more of a chance of cobbling together the number to pass the deal with various sweeteners for different parties, or we leave under no deal, or we extend a50 and still leave before May leaves.

    No-one else wants to be leader whilst this is going on - if Corbyn really wanted to be leader to negotiate Brexit then he would have VONC the government. As soon as no general election is possible then he would have to back second referendum, and the Leave supporting Labour vote would be under pressure - personally I would see this as more desirable, than the remain side, as they have somewhere to go i.e. green / Lib Dem / nationalists. Unfortunately as we know Corbyn doesn’t like to change his personal views and this confirms he is a leaver. He wants leave but wants someone else to do it, and he can then sweep in afterwards. May has the same problem with remain voting Tories, and that is why it is important for her to get a practical deal through, to minimise economic disruption.


    Exactly right. It is in everyone else's interests that TM is in charge until it is clear which way the wind is ultimately blowing over Brexit, after which it should be pretty much open season for the responsibility shifters, who are large in number, to have their turn.

  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 3,323
    edited December 2018
    On the job front today I am Gordon Brown awaiting word that Nick Clegg hasn't been able to conclude a deal with David Cameron and wants a chat...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 28,754

    Thread on 'Is there a Customs Need for the Backstop?':

    His solution seems to be to make all goods crossing the Irish border have to be handled by approved exporters and tracked. Does that sound like business as usual?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 18,581

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    O

    As for Brexit, it might not happen at all. The chances of no deal or no Brexit must be about neck and neck.





    TM will stand down in due course but right now she is an asset to the party and has a great amount of support in the country, compared to any of the alternatives


    The meaningful vote is meaningless. May’s deal won’t pass with the backstop and the backstop isn’t going to change. She pulled the vote for a reason.


    BigG speaks sense on this unlike your fanaticism.

    May has got a Deal which is more than most would have and got 42% in 2017
    True. And the chance of her getting it through, in the end, are higher than people are currently estimating (although the penny is starting to drop). It's a shame there isn't a betting opportunity, since Betfair closed the "deal agreed in 2018" market and there isn't an equivalent for 2019. I wouldn't want to tie myself to 29 March since there are clearly various scenarios where we could want or be forced to delay.
    The screeching of Lord Adonis demonstrates the penny is starting to drop.

    It's May's Deal or No Deal. Choose, Remainers.....
    No, it's actually still May's Deal or No Brexit, but you are right that the choice you pose is working toward making May's Deal more likely than No Brexit.
    +1
    The key point is that there isn't a credible route to no deal, except by some horrendous accident. I agree that the chance of such is greater than zero, but it isn't high: deep in government a Revocation Bill will already be drafted and it would only take a day or two to get through Parliament in extremis (and the question of whether the PM could just do it hasn't been conclusively settled). May is simply playing it for all it is worth in order to drive people toward her deal.

    There is only a tiny faction of fanatics within Parliament who want no deal, and they have little leverage and have just destroyed any credibility they might once have had.

    If May wanted to get to 'no deal' by outwitting Parliament, then it's possible, I agree. But there is no evidence she would do that. She would lose her job, and a slice of her party; it would bring down the government and damage the country. May isn't going to want that as her legacy; her duty to serve her party and the country are what drives her along.

    The betting opportunity will be in betting against 'no deal' if we reach the point when it starts to look quite likely.
  • May's deal is Brexit. For all it's faults as a deal we would leave the European Union - which is all that was on the ballot paper. If it doesn't satisfy the people who imagine that "European Union" means sonetsome else then tough.

    When May's deal is defeated I think her final play will be to go over the heads of MPs. They are refuaireto deliver my Brexit that you the people want. So give me the mandate to execute it.

    She needs a people's vote because MPs continue to deny her / the will of the people. Whether that's a GenrraG Election or a referendum I am unclear. Either way remain will be an option and leave with May will be an option. And let's be honest about this - we cannot hold a referendum wuixqui enough to satisfy Article 50. But we can an election. In February.
  • May's deal is Brexit. For all it's faults as a deal we would leave the European Union - which is all that was on the ballot paper. If it doesn't satisfy the people who imagine that "European Union" means sonetsome else then tough.

    When May's deal is defeated I think her final play will be to go over the heads of MPs. They are refuaireto deliver my Brexit that you the people want. So give me the mandate to execute it.

    She needs a people's vote because MPs continue to deny her / the will of the people. Whether that's a GenrraG Election or a referendum I am unclear. Either way remain will be an option and leave with May will be an option. And let's be honest about this - we cannot hold a referendum wuixqui enough to satisfy Article 50. But we can an election. In February.

    What's more, an election utterly destroys the Labour Party. Her position will be simple - if you want to deliver Brexit you have to vote Conservative. If Jeremy tries to copy and also pledge to back Brexit but his unicorn cake fantasy version then he will not only alienate half the Labour vote but half the Labour activists as well. Alternatively he can pledge no Brexit as most MPs and members want and youllyoullysee Labour slaughtered.

    She has to call an election. It will save her. And her party.

    Why can't she see this?
  • Off topic: I'm off to a public meeting with John McDonnell this afternoon. Should be interesting.

    Also interesting is the fact that he is spending the day in Shipley constituency - clearly on our target list.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 3,056

    The tragedy of education is we each have an opinion, and often imagine this amounts to expertise, based entirely on our own schooling. It does not extend to other fields. No-one says, I've had a bad cold so here is how we should use Crispr to edit virus DNA. But ask about the history syllabus or synthetic phonics and ministers and journalists can debate all day.

    I agree. Everybody knows best how education should be run. I'm not immune myself. I've got all sorts of ideas that I just KNOW would be transformational.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 28,754

    May's deal is Brexit. For all it's faults as a deal we would leave the European Union - which is all that was on the ballot paper. If it doesn't satisfy the people who imagine that "European Union" means sonetsome else then tough.

    When May's deal is defeated I think her final play will be to go over the heads of MPs. They are refuaireto deliver my Brexit that you the people want. So give me the mandate to execute it.

    She needs a people's vote because MPs continue to deny her / the will of the people. Whether that's a GenrraG Election or a referendum I am unclear. Either way remain will be an option and leave with May will be an option. And let's be honest about this - we cannot hold a referendum wuixqui enough to satisfy Article 50. But we can an election. In February.

    What's more, an election utterly destroys the Labour Party. Her position will be simple - if you want to deliver Brexit you have to vote Conservative. If Jeremy tries to copy and also pledge to back Brexit but his unicorn cake fantasy version then he will not only alienate half the Labour vote but half the Labour activists as well. Alternatively he can pledge no Brexit as most MPs and members want and youllyoullysee Labour slaughtered.

    She has to call an election. It will save her. And her party.

    Why can't she see this?
    It would split the party. Neither Johnson nor Soubry would campaign for that manifesto.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 16,671
    kle4 said:

    Lets hope Adonis never gets near government again:

    He has definitely succumbed to the Brexit madness virus with that tweet.
    I think he was patient zero.

    He's basically saying 'I value an impartialcivil service....except I dont'
    "I'm not trying to be..."
  • May's deal is Brexit. For all it's faults as a deal we would leave the European Union - which is all that was on the ballot paper. If it doesn't satisfy the people who imagine that "European Union" means sonetsome else then tough.

    When May's deal is defeated I think her final play will be to go over the heads of MPs. They are refuaireto deliver my Brexit that you the people want. So give me the mandate to execute it.

    She needs a people's vote because MPs continue to deny her / the will of the people. Whether that's a GenrraG Election or a referendum I am unclear. Either way remain will be an option and leave with May will be an option. And let's be honest about this - we cannot hold a referendum wuixqui enough to satisfy Article 50. But we can an election. In February.

    What's more, an election utterly destroys the Labour Party. Her position will be simple - if you want to deliver Brexit you have to vote Conservative. If Jeremy tries to copy and also pledge to back Brexit but his unicorn cake fantasy version then he will not only alienate half the Labour vote but half the Labour activists as well. Alternatively he can pledge no Brexit as most MPs and members want and youllyoullysee Labour slaughtered.

    She has to call an election. It will save her. And her party.

    Why can't she see this?
    It would split the party. Neither Johnson nor Soubry would campaign for that manifesto.
    If shes won seats across the North why would she care about ERG nutters?
This discussion has been closed.