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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Which will happen first? TMay to step down as PM or the UK to

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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,011
    SeanT said:

    Jonathan said:

    SeanT said:

    Gatwick now closed til 7pm.

    This will fuck up hundreds of thousands of holidays and biz trips. And it could all be just one guy - Greenpeace or jihadi, evil nutter or teen off his tits. Or a drunk who has forgotten he's got a drone and has fallen asleep on the joystick.

    My money is on someone fed up with noise.
    Hmm.

    This thread is interesting. Says it *could* be low level terrorism, but probably isn't. But is certain about the terror potential.
    Awesome.

    https://twitter.com/NGrossman81/status/1075771847654797312
  • Options
    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    SeanT said:

    Jonathan said:

    SeanT said:

    Gatwick now closed til 7pm.

    This will fuck up hundreds of thousands of holidays and biz trips. And it could all be just one guy - Greenpeace or jihadi, evil nutter or teen off his tits. Or a drunk who has forgotten he's got a drone and has fallen asleep on the joystick.

    My money is on someone fed up with noise.
    Hmm.

    This thread is interesting. Says it *could* be low level terrorism, but probably isn't. But is certain about the terror potential.

    https://twitter.com/NGrossman81/status/1075765784885018624
    'Could' is journalistic slang here for "I'm just speculating wildly but trying to making it look like news".

    Of course it *could* be low level terrorism, that's pretty much a statement of the obvious.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,216
    edited December 2018
    Chris said:

    IanB2 said:

    Chris said:

    Does anyone understand Andrea Leadsom's plan for a managed No Deal?

    Apparently it still involves negotiating a deal with a transition period, but presumably no backstop? Is she suggesting we should give up anything in return for the EU giving up the backstop? If not, why should the EU agree to her "No Deal Deal"?

    Does she understand that this isn't really no deal, is it?
    The BBC quotes her as saying:
    "A managed no deal does not necessarily mean there is no withdrawal agreement at all."
    and:
    "What I am looking at is trying to find an alternative so that in the event that we cannot agree to this deal that there could be a further deal that looks at a more minimalist approach but enables us to leave with some kind of implementation period."

    So, yes, she knows she is advocating a deal, but she is still calling it "no deal".

    This can only mean that she has picked up that 'no deal' seems weirdly appealing to many Tory members without understanding that it means you don't have a deal with the EU?

    This is the woman our hard Brexit friends think would have delivered a better outcome than Mrs M.
  • Options
    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited December 2018
    IanB2 said:


    This can only mean that she has picked up that 'no deal' seems weirdly appealing to many Tory members without understanding that it means you don't have a deal with the EU?

    It's remarkable under how many different brand umbrellas unicorns masquerade, isn't it?
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    IanB2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    Anazina said:

    Once May’s deal is defeated, she can’t possibly stay and no one in the Tory Party would want her to. She would face a proper VNOC from Labour then, which she’d probably win but she would then be the news rather than policy which would be a massive distraction.

    With Labour currently on the back foot after Corbyn’s mad moment yesterday, and idiotic attempt at a VNOC which made the Keystone Cops look competent, she’d after to make way. She won’t be missed.

    As for Brexit, it might not happen at all. The chances of no deal or no Brexit must be about neck and neck.

    Why do people insist on abbreviating it to VNOC?

    It’s VONC man!
    That’s the kind of pedantry I expect on PB - I always give people the benefit of the doubt as m6 autocorrect is bonkers on my Ipad

    Mine keeps changing 'because' to 'becuase' for some reason. Does anyone know how I change it?
    I often transpose two letters when typing , it is seemingly very common and something to do with one side of the brain working faster than the other, especially when you are a genius like me.
    There are no other geniuses like you, malc.
    Certainly it's unusual to come across one with a brain running slow on one side.
    Is it? One side of the brain is more analytical and the other side is more creative. From memory.

    If you're an analytical genius (or vice versa) I could well imagine one side running faster.
  • Options

    Pulpstar said:

    Isn't the "finance bill" normally passed by now, or does it take eons normally.

    The programme motion is the same as previous bills, it's just that Christmas and Brexit and other parliamentary shenanigans have gotten in the way.

    Its third reading in the HoC will be over two months since the first reading which is an unusually long passage for a finance bill.
    Plus the finance bill is introduced about 6 months earlier than it used to be but still comes into effect at same time (from memory). Makes ramming it through Parliament less urgent.
  • Options
    AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    SeanT said:

    Jonathan said:

    SeanT said:

    Gatwick now closed til 7pm.

    This will fuck up hundreds of thousands of holidays and biz trips. And it could all be just one guy - Greenpeace or jihadi, evil nutter or teen off his tits. Or a drunk who has forgotten he's got a drone and has fallen asleep on the joystick.

    My money is on someone fed up with noise.
    Hmm.

    This thread is interesting. Says it *could* be low level terrorism, but probably isn't. But is certain about the terror potential.

    https://twitter.com/NGrossman81/status/1075765784885018624
    'Could' is journalistic slang here for "I'm just speculating wildly but trying to making it look like news".

    Of course it *could* be low level terrorism, that's pretty much a statement of the obvious.
    Indeed. It could be. It could also be someone’s grandad who has had too much port and has nicked his grandson’s new toy for a laugh. It could also be a fanatical Leaver preventing the furriners from entering the country.

    Has anyone seen Donny today?
  • Options
    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234


    If you're an analytical genius (or vice versa) I could well imagine one side running faster.

    The left-brain/right-brain thing is a load of old bollocks, honestly. Mindless new-age quackery.

    https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/left-brain-right-brain-myth/

    The way the different functional centres of the brain interoperate is way more complex than that, many cognitive abilities are diffuse across both lobes and are able to operate redundantly in either, and in any case, the two lobes are *massively* interconnected via the central core, so there's no real distinction from a cognitive perspective in which lobe(s) a particular cognitive feature occurs.
  • Options
    AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    AndyJS said:

    Drones should be banned IMO. There's no reason for members of the public to own them.

    They are fabulous tools for aerial photography. There’s one reason straight away.
  • Options
    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited December 2018
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Jonathan said:

    SeanT said:

    Gatwick now closed til 7pm.

    This will fuck up hundreds of thousands of holidays and biz trips. And it could all be just one guy - Greenpeace or jihadi, evil nutter or teen off his tits. Or a drunk who has forgotten he's got a drone and has fallen asleep on the joystick.

    My money is on someone fed up with noise.
    Hmm.

    This thread is interesting. Says it *could* be low level terrorism, but probably isn't. But is certain about the terror potential.
    Awesome.

    https://twitter.com/NGrossman81/status/1075771847654797312
    There's no planes flying, there's no one on the runway, tell everyone near the airport to go indoors: then shoot down the drones. How hard is that? Gatwick??
    Just detonate a massive EMP bomb. Plus side is it might take out Croydon too.
  • Options
    AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    edited December 2018
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Isn't the "finance bill" normally passed by now, or does it take eons normally.

    The programme motion is the same as previous bills, it's just that Christmas and Brexit and other parliamentary shenanigans have gotten in the way.

    Its third reading in the HoC will be over two months since the first reading which is an unusually long passage for a finance bill.
    I guess the Gov't is trying to blackmail backbenchers into voting through the deal; so the backbenchers might as well try something back.

    Blackmail is bad whoever tries it, noone should give in to blackmail.
    All politics is blackmail.
  • Options
    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,351
    edited December 2018
    How about a more logical cause for the drone attack on Gatwick? A nest of Greens wanting to stop air transport at a peak time. Think of all the carbon dioxide they're stopping.

    No evidence, but they're barmy enough. Where was that Attenborough fellow while this was going on?
  • Options
    AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    Anazina said:

    Once May’s deal is defeated, she can’t possibly stay and no one in the Tory Party would want her to. She would face a proper VNOC from Labour then, which she’d probably win but she would then be the news rather than policy which would be a massive distraction.

    With Labour currently on the back foot after Corbyn’s mad moment yesterday, and idiotic attempt at a VNOC which made the Keystone Cops look competent, she’d after to make way. She won’t be missed.

    As for Brexit, it might not happen at all. The chances of no deal or no Brexit must be about neck and neck.

    Why do people insist on abbreviating it to VNOC?

    It’s VONC man!
    That’s the kind of pedantry I expect on PB - I always give people the benefit of the doubt as m6 autocorrect is bonkers on my Ipad

    Mine keeps changing 'because' to 'becuase' for some reason. Does anyone know how I change it?
    I often transpose two letters when typing , it is seemingly very common and something to do with one side of the brain working faster than the other, especially when you are a genius like me.
    Explains why you no longer work at the Large Hadron Collider......
    :smiley: We have our differences, but bravo. You have won PB with that one.
  • Options
    Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634

    SeanT said:

    Jonathan said:

    SeanT said:

    Gatwick now closed til 7pm.

    This will fuck up hundreds of thousands of holidays and biz trips. And it could all be just one guy - Greenpeace or jihadi, evil nutter or teen off his tits. Or a drunk who has forgotten he's got a drone and has fallen asleep on the joystick.

    My money is on someone fed up with noise.
    Hmm.

    This thread is interesting. Says it *could* be low level terrorism, but probably isn't. But is certain about the terror potential.

    https://twitter.com/NGrossman81/status/1075765784885018624
    'Could' is journalistic slang here for "I'm just speculating wildly but trying to making it look like news".

    Of course it *could* be low level terrorism, that's pretty much a statement of the obvious.
    As noted whenever Project Fear ramps up again - almost anything "could" happen.
  • Options
    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    CD13 said:

    How about a more logical cause for the drone attack on Gatwick? A nest of Greens wanting to stop air transport at a peak time. Think of all the carbon dioxide they're stopping.

    No evidence, but they're barmy enough. Where was that Attenborough fellow while this was going on?

    You'd think that a radical environmentalist cell would be crowing about it if it were them.

    I bet Greenpeace is kicking themselves they didn't think of it first.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,899
    Anazina said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Isn't the "finance bill" normally passed by now, or does it take eons normally.

    The programme motion is the same as previous bills, it's just that Christmas and Brexit and other parliamentary shenanigans have gotten in the way.

    Its third reading in the HoC will be over two months since the first reading which is an unusually long passage for a finance bill.
    I guess the Gov't is trying to blackmail backbenchers into voting through the deal; so the backbenchers might as well try something back.

    Blackmail is bad whoever tries it, noone should give in to blackmail.
    :smiley: We have our differences, but bravo. You have won PB with that one.
    I've been trying to work out Theresa May's thought processes given her statements - bit of "method acting" if you like. I think I reached it in the end, and she's definitely on the hard Brexit side of things.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,899
    @Donny43 Are you going to welcome the NYC flight that's arriving in Donny airport ?
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    Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Jonathan said:

    SeanT said:

    Gatwick now closed til 7pm.

    This will fuck up hundreds of thousands of holidays and biz trips. And it could all be just one guy - Greenpeace or jihadi, evil nutter or teen off his tits. Or a drunk who has forgotten he's got a drone and has fallen asleep on the joystick.

    My money is on someone fed up with noise.
    Hmm.

    This thread is interesting. Says it *could* be low level terrorism, but probably isn't. But is certain about the terror potential.
    Awesome.

    https://twitter.com/NGrossman81/status/1075771847654797312
    There's no planes flying, there's no one on the runway, tell everyone near the airport to go indoors: then shoot down the drones. How hard is that? Gatwick??
    Just detonate a massive EMP bomb. Plus side is it might take out Croydon too.
    Or they could always use one of these. Would definitely get rid of the drone and nobody would have to complain about flight delays at Gatwick ever again.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AIR-2_Genie
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    AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Pulpstar

    Actually my reply was meant for Mark.

    Apologies.
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    Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634
    Pulpstar said:

    @Donny43 Are you going to welcome the NYC flight that's arriving in Donny airport ?

    Wrong sort of Donny, sorry. Last time I was there was for football when it was still Belle Vue :)
  • Options

    CD13 said:

    How about a more logical cause for the drone attack on Gatwick? A nest of Greens wanting to stop air transport at a peak time. Think of all the carbon dioxide they're stopping.

    No evidence, but they're barmy enough. Where was that Attenborough fellow while this was going on?

    You'd think that a radical environmentalist cell would be crowing about it if it were them.

    I bet Greenpeace is kicking themselves they didn't think of it first.
    Would have to be more radical than Greenpeace I think, because the very act of disrupting flights wouldn't save many emissions as passengers have to be moved around.
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    pbr2013pbr2013 Posts: 649



    Don't work in penisons.

    I had a legal secretary who worked on a deal for the then dominant word processor manufacturer, Wang. Yes, she did.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,351
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:


    Not as good as this (unfairly IMhO, only the runner-up for 2017)

    “Her vaginal ratchet moved in concertina-like waves, slowly chugging my organ as a boa constrictor swallows its prey”

    It sometimes makes you wonder whether these authors have ever had sex before, or if they're just guessing about how ladyparts work.

    A lot of it does read like teenage fanfiction (I remember one fanfic that referred to the heroine's "lavender labia").
    An unusual colour.
  • Options
    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited December 2018
    Anazina said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Isn't the "finance bill" normally passed by now, or does it take eons normally.

    The programme motion is the same as previous bills, it's just that Christmas and Brexit and other parliamentary shenanigans have gotten in the way.

    Its third reading in the HoC will be over two months since the first reading which is an unusually long passage for a finance bill.
    I guess the Gov't is trying to blackmail backbenchers into voting through the deal; so the backbenchers might as well try something back.

    Blackmail is bad whoever tries it, noone should give in to blackmail.
    All politics is blackmail.
    That's unfair, there's a sliding scale of ways to get what you want in politics.

    -> appeal to better judgement
    -> appeal to enlightened self interest
    -> bribery
    -> appeal to loyalty
    -> emotional blackmail
    -> actual blackmail
    -> threats of violence
    -> war
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    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    At a very brief glance, all that amendment does is stop the government from preparing for No Deal without Parliament’s approval. In other words, our MPs can make things even worse for us in the event of No Deal.

    Where would we be without them?
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    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578
    RoyalBlue said:

    At a very brief glance, all that amendment does is stop the government from preparing for No Deal without Parliament’s approval. In other words, our MPs can make things even worse for us in the event of No Deal.

    Where would we be without them?

    A dictatorship?
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,918
    Nigelb said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:


    Not as good as this (unfairly IMhO, only the runner-up for 2017)

    “Her vaginal ratchet moved in concertina-like waves, slowly chugging my organ as a boa constrictor swallows its prey”

    It sometimes makes you wonder whether these authors have ever had sex before, or if they're just guessing about how ladyparts work.

    A lot of it does read like teenage fanfiction (I remember one fanfic that referred to the heroine's "lavender labia").
    An unusual colour.
    I think it's the scent!
  • Options
    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    SeanT said:

    CD13 said:

    How about a more logical cause for the drone attack on Gatwick? A nest of Greens wanting to stop air transport at a peak time. Think of all the carbon dioxide they're stopping.

    No evidence, but they're barmy enough. Where was that Attenborough fellow while this was going on?

    You'd think that a radical environmentalist cell would be crowing about it if it were them.

    I bet Greenpeace is kicking themselves they didn't think of it first.
    Someone on Twitter just asked - when I suggested clearing the area and shooting them down (surely the solution, like with an escaped tiger from a zoo) - what if the drone is carrying something toxic? I reckon this is highly unlikely, and if it is true, then it could be dropped at any moment and better we choose that moment than the terrorist/nutter/drunk.

    Either way, as you say, there must be Greenpeace wankers and Islamist nerds across the world thinking, OOOH, that's EASY
    I think a drone that's big enough to actually carry a significant amount of explosives would be detectable by radar. A drone this small could certainly carry a dangerous amount of, say, Novichok. But that still raises the question of whether a drone is an efficient delivery mechanism for nerve agents.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    It’s at time like these that we feel reassured that Trident guarantees our national security.
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    Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634
    Anazina said:

    SeanT said:

    Jonathan said:

    SeanT said:

    Gatwick now closed til 7pm.

    This will fuck up hundreds of thousands of holidays and biz trips. And it could all be just one guy - Greenpeace or jihadi, evil nutter or teen off his tits. Or a drunk who has forgotten he's got a drone and has fallen asleep on the joystick.

    My money is on someone fed up with noise.
    Hmm.

    This thread is interesting. Says it *could* be low level terrorism, but probably isn't. But is certain about the terror potential.

    https://twitter.com/NGrossman81/status/1075765784885018624
    'Could' is journalistic slang here for "I'm just speculating wildly but trying to making it look like news".

    Of course it *could* be low level terrorism, that's pretty much a statement of the obvious.
    Indeed. It could be. It could also be someone’s grandad who has had too much port and has nicked his grandson’s new toy for a laugh. It could also be a fanatical Leaver preventing the furriners from entering the country.

    Has anyone seen Donny today?
    If you're going to be obsessed about me you really should pay more attention.
  • Options
    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Also, another possibility is that is day one of the robot uprising.

    I, for one, welcome our quadcopter overlords.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,351

    Anazina said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Isn't the "finance bill" normally passed by now, or does it take eons normally.

    The programme motion is the same as previous bills, it's just that Christmas and Brexit and other parliamentary shenanigans have gotten in the way.

    Its third reading in the HoC will be over two months since the first reading which is an unusually long passage for a finance bill.
    I guess the Gov't is trying to blackmail backbenchers into voting through the deal; so the backbenchers might as well try something back.

    Blackmail is bad whoever tries it, noone should give in to blackmail.
    All politics is blackmail.
    That's unfair, there's a sliding scale of ways to get what you want in politics.

    -> appeal to better judgement
    -> appeal to enlightened self interest
    -> bribery
    -> appeal to loyalty
    -> emotional blackmail
    -> actual blackmail
    -> threats of violence
    -> war
    With current politicians, I can see why you didn't include inspirational leadership on that list.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,899
    The combination of the FTPA and Tory leadership rules is a heady cocktail.
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    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited December 2018
    Pulpstar said:

    The combination of the FTPA and Tory leadership rules is a heady cocktail.

    I mean the FTPA was essentially designed to preserve Dave's coalition by preventing the Tories being able to call an election without the support of the Lib Dems.

    The FTPA was designed to greatly increase the leverage that the minor party in a coalition has.

    It's just now doing it for the DUP rather than the Lib Dems.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,811
    AndyJS said:

    Drones should be banned IMO. There's no reason for members of the public to own them.

    curmudgeon
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,811
    Nigelb said:

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    Anazina said:

    Once May’s deal is defeated, she can’t possibly stay and no one in the Tory Party would want her to. She would face a proper VNOC from Labour then, which she’d probably win but she would then be the news rather than policy which would be a massive distraction.

    With Labour currently on the back foot after Corbyn’s mad moment yesterday, and idiotic attempt at a VNOC which made the Keystone Cops look competent, she’d after to make way. She won’t be missed.

    As for Brexit, it might not happen at all. The chances of no deal or no Brexit must be about neck and neck.

    Why do people insist on abbreviating it to VNOC?

    It’s VONC man!
    That’s the kind of pedantry I expect on PB - I always give people the benefit of the doubt as m6 autocorrect is bonkers on my Ipad

    Mine keeps changing 'because' to 'becuase' for some reason. Does anyone know how I change it?
    I often transpose two letters when typing , it is seemingly very common and something to do with one side of the brain working faster than the other, especially when you are a genius like me.
    There are no other geniuses like you, malc.
    Thank you Nigel
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,811
    IanB2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    Anazina said:

    Once May’s deal is defeated, she can’t possibly stay and no one in the Tory Party would want her to. She would face a proper VNOC from Labour then, which she’d probably win but she would then be the news rather than policy which would be a massive distraction.

    With Labour currently on the back foot after Corbyn’s mad moment yesterday, and idiotic attempt at a VNOC which made the Keystone Cops look competent, she’d after to make way. She won’t be missed.

    As for Brexit, it might not happen at all. The chances of no deal or no Brexit must be about neck and neck.

    Why do people insist on abbreviating it to VNOC?

    It’s VONC man!
    That’s the kind of pedantry I expect on PB - I always give people the benefit of the doubt as m6 autocorrect is bonkers on my Ipad

    Mine keeps changing 'because' to 'becuase' for some reason. Does anyone know how I change it?
    I often transpose two letters when typing , it is seemingly very common and something to do with one side of the brain working faster than the other, especially when you are a genius like me.
    There are no other geniuses like you, malc.
    Certainly it's unusual to come across one with a brain running slow on one side.
    Ian , I said less fast, never a mention of it being slow, just relative to mega fast
  • Options
    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    malcolmg said:

    AndyJS said:

    Drones should be banned IMO. There's no reason for members of the public to own them.

    curmudgeon
    Ban everything invented after 1995. Nothing good was invented after I turned 17.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,216
    I bet the two staff members who say they saw the drone again this morning have been asked dozens of times whether they are sure.
  • Options
    This Thread is Old News
  • Options

    Also, another possibility is that is day one of the robot uprising.

    I, for one, welcome our quadcopter overlords.

    What is the quadcopter position on Brexit?
This discussion has been closed.