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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why Corbyn could be the one to extend Article 50 in the New Ye

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited December 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why Corbyn could be the one to extend Article 50 in the New Year

FTPA doesn’t just stand for Fixed Term Parliaments Act; it can equally be Freedom to Piss About, which seems appropriate given the casually reckless approach taken to the Brexit ratification process by just about all sides.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • First! Like Leave and the Deal.
  • Would the EU agree to extend A50 for a government that was clearly destined to fall within a few days? Surely they’d bide their time and see what evolved.

    As Corbyn makes clear in the Guardian, a Labour Government would still Brexit. What’s in it for the EU?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 10,597

    First! Like Leave and the Deal.

    Which deal?
  • FPT:

    Only if you haven’t been paying attention:

    Interesting that John Harris thinks a route to "remain" is the only way out of the crisis
    The belief that Remaining will somehow solve all our problems and restore harmony is touching...
  • FPT:

    Only if you haven’t been paying attention:

    Interesting that John Harris thinks a route to "remain" is the only way out of the crisis
    The belief that Remaining will somehow solve all our problems and restore harmony is touching...
    I think the assumption is that the crisis is that people doing productive work across borders or living in countries they're not nationals of are about to get shafted, and still have no idea in what way they're going to get shafted because the government can't gets its legislation through. If that's the crisis then remaining solves it, by cancelling the currently-scheduled shafting of these people.

    However, if you think the crisis is that there are people getting angry with each other and arguing on the internet then no, remaining wouldn't fix it.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 10,597
    edited December 2018

    FPT:

    Only if you haven’t been paying attention:

    Interesting that John Harris thinks a route to "remain" is the only way out of the crisis
    The belief that Remaining will somehow solve all our problems and restore harmony is touching...
    I think the assumption is that the crisis is that people doing productive work across borders or living in countries they're not nationals of are about to get shafted, and still have no idea in what way they're going to get shafted because the government can't gets its legislation through. If that's the crisis then remaining solves it, by cancelling the currently-scheduled shafting of these people.

    However, if you think the crisis is that there are people getting angry with each other and arguing on the internet then no, remaining wouldn't fix it.
    Perhaps the only way out is an economic catastrophy where the economy collapses. It doesn't take long in a febrile atmosphere for the country to point their guns in a single direction and Brexiting could easily become the fall guy. I think Harris is correct in saying that reversing Brexit is the only solution to restoring harmony.
  • Corbyn would, presumably, be expected to face a Confidence vote himself (it would look equally absurd for him to try to run the clock down and prompt an election), but that needn’t happen immediately – he would surely be given a day or two to form a government before having to submit to its ratification.
    More to the point, even if parliament votes Corbyn down, he's still PM until either someone else persuades the Queen that they might be able to pull it off or the general election is completed and someone else shows they can form a government. So he'd be there for a good few weeks, unless there's an orderly queue of potential prime ministers behind him waiting their turn, in which case he'd probably leave it for the next guy.
  • In these circumstances Theresa May might herself seek an extension to 30 June as part of the justification for squatting in the 14 day period.

    As to whether Jeremy Corbyn would be invited, much would depend on public statements during the horsetrading period by key factions. What would the DUP say? What would the ERG say? Could the Conservatives propose a caretaker who could command short term support? The Queen is not going to invite someone whose position is clearly hopeless.

    Among the precedents David Herdson gives, Lloyd George is actually against him. He was not the leader of the Opposition. The precedents are better explained on the basis that the person most likely to command the confidence of the House was selected. Balfour willed Campbell-Bannerman’s succession, Baldwin advised the king to call for Ramsay MacDonald.

    For that matter, what would Labour right wing MPs say? This would be their moment of maximum leverage. John Woodcock, now independent, campaigned on the basis that he would not support Jeremy Corbyn for Prime Minister. Anyone care to guess whether Mike Gapes would?
  • What would you have him do? Enact a one man sit-in of the red benches over Christmas?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 7,098

    What would you have him do? Enact a one man sit-in of the red benches over Christmas?
    Let them sweat it out in their constituencies. It's not as if they are getting anywhere in Westminster.

    The WA merely kicks the can down the road for 21 months, the same debates on No Deal vs vassal status just continue.

  • FPT:

    Only if you haven’t been paying attention:

    Interesting that John Harris thinks a route to "remain" is the only way out of the crisis
    The belief that Remaining will somehow solve all our problems and restore harmony is touching...
    However, if you think the crisis is that there are people getting angry with each other and arguing on the internet then no, remaining wouldn't fix it.
    I think Brexit is a mistake, but worry more about our democracy than the economy. Remaining will lead to a whole lot worse than "people getting angry with each other and arguing on the internet".

    The overwhelming majority of the British workforce have not gone to live in countries that they were not nationals of - and of those who have, significant numbers have not done it in the EU.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 2,733

    In these circumstances Theresa May might herself seek an extension to 30 June as part of the justification for squatting in the 14 day period.

    As to whether Jeremy Corbyn would be invited, much would depend on public statements during the horsetrading period by key factions. What would the DUP say? What would the ERG say? Could the Conservatives propose a caretaker who could command short term support? The Queen is not going to invite someone whose position is clearly hopeless.

    Among the precedents David Herdson gives, Lloyd George is actually against him. He was not the leader of the Opposition. The precedents are better explained on the basis that the person most likely to command the confidence of the House was selected. Balfour willed Campbell-Bannerman’s succession, Baldwin advised the king to call for Ramsay MacDonald.

    For that matter, what would Labour right wing MPs say? This would be their moment of maximum leverage. John Woodcock, now independent, campaigned on the basis that he would not support Jeremy Corbyn for Prime Minister. Anyone care to guess whether Mike Gapes would?

    Woodcock is probably the most against Corbyn of the ex Labour but then Field is a Brexit supporter whereas I'm fairly sure Woodcock is a remainer, if all this is being done in regards to Brexit it might change the calculations for some. The right wing Labour MPs seem mostly more concerned about Brexit than Corbyn these days.
  • What would you have him do? Enact a one man sit-in of the red benches over Christmas?
    Be a little more self aware in his tweeting - but then he's already revealed himself unfit to hold office again, so perhaps its not a bad thing.
  • Roger said:

    First! Like Leave and the Deal.

    Which deal?

    The only Deal on the table.
  • I can't imagine the palace would act immediately - they'd give the horse-trading a few days to get a feel for who might be well placed to form a government. If that government was going to exist purely to ask for an extension to A50 to make time for an election, it would probably be a neutral figure rather than Corbyn. Perhaps Caroline Lucas or Sylvia Hermon?
    Also, given the fairly slow pace of the EU agreeing to anything, the new govt would have to survive the confidence vote before the extension was granted, even if it asked before that. That needs several more Tories to resign the whip than have currently promised to, before its possible.
  • What would you have him do? Enact a one man sit-in of the red benches over Christmas?
    Be a little more self aware in his tweeting - but then he's already revealed himself unfit to hold office again, so perhaps its not a bad thing.
    What a pathetic answer. Why should Christmas be cancelled exclusively for Lord Adonis?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 16,593

    What would you have him do? Enact a one man sit-in of the red benches over Christmas?
    Be a little more self aware in his tweeting - but then he's already revealed himself unfit to hold office again, so perhaps its not a bad thing.
    'Again?' This implies there was a time when he WAS fit to hold office...
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 2,576

    Would the EU agree to extend A50 for a government that was clearly destined to fall within a few days? Surely they’d bide their time and see what evolved.

    As Corbyn makes clear in the Guardian, a Labour Government would still Brexit. What’s in it for the EU?

    Well exactly. Even should Jeremy Corbyn find himself in the position described above, it's most likely that the EU would reject any request for an extension out of hand. IIRC reports have circulated recently that several EU member governments have misgivings about granting an extension under any circumstances whatever; the only likely scenario under which I can see for them all agreeing to do it is if a bill proposing a Deal vs Remain referendum (the only choice which would guarantee some form of settled outcome to the EU's liking) were to be presented to Parliament, with a reasonable likelihood of it making it onto the statute book. At this juncture that seems less likely than a Corbyn-as-accidental-PM situation.

    That said, were Corbyn ever to find himself with the opportunity to call for an extension then I'd not be at all surprised if he were to attempt to take advantage of it. The whole point of his strategy of calling for a General Election, whilst floating non-existent unicorn Brexit plans, is to help facilitate Theresa May in running down the clock so that he doesn't have to make a decision. From Corbyn's point of view, the best case scenario is No Deal by default (gives him what he wants, any and all negative consequences can be attributed to Tory incompetence,) and the worst case scenario is that his Europhile backbenchers blink and vote to put the Deal through at the last minute (which would allow him to deflect at least some of the blame from the Brexit-backing fraction of the electorate onto "metropolitan liberal" MPs and most likely result in the fall of the Government and a snap election.)

    Corbyn's core support, within and without Parliament, is split between Old Left Labourites who think the EU a capitalist shill and would gladly see the back of it, and New Left internationalists who are obsessed with open borders and see the EU as a progressive bulwark against Tory policy. Being able to put off any firm decision on what to do about Brexit until some never-arrived-at tomorrow saves Corbyn from his nightmare: having, after a lifetime of opposition to Governments of every stripe, to wield real power himself and suffer denunciation from whichever faction on his own side he ends up bitterly disappointing. Leaving Theresa May to get on with it for the next three months or so suits him down to the ground.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 7,098

    Roger said:

    First! Like Leave and the Deal.

    Which deal?

    The only Deal on the table.
    The one that barely 1 in 6 of the country supports? yes that is the recipie for harmony during the next phase.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 16,593
    edited December 2018
    Minor quibble:

    Bonar Law, as the leader of the largest party in the Commons, was given first dibs on forming a government in 1916.

    Accounts differ as to whether he declined the opportunity and advised the King to send for the Goat, or whether he briefly tried to form a government, failed and then advised the King to send for the Goat.
  • There is also the point that Churchill not Attlee was called in 1940.
  • Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    First! Like Leave and the Deal.

    Which deal?

    The only Deal on the table.
    The one that barely 1 in 6 of the country supports? yes that is the recipie for harmony during the next phase.

    When the other 5 are split between mutually incompatible outcomes it may be the least worst option.
    ydoethur said:

    What would you have him do? Enact a one man sit-in of the red benches over Christmas?
    Be a little more self aware in his tweeting - but then he's already revealed himself unfit to hold office again, so perhaps its not a bad thing.
    'Again?' This implies there was a time when he WAS fit to hold office...
    Fair point - but you have to admire his brass neck for criticising others for taking holiday one day, then boasting the next how he's got out of Gatwick to go on holiday....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 16,593

    There is also the point that Churchill not Attlee was called in 1940.

    Although as the leader of a party with only 150-odd MPs there was never any chance he would have been able to lead the government.

    It is instructive to note that although he functioned as Churchill's deputy for four and a half years, from Chanberlain's death until the coalition was resolved, Churchill never considered Attlee a possible replacement if he died or resigned. Both Eden and Anderson would have been preferred.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 49,993
    Nothing looks likely to happen, yet something must
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 16,593
    Again, the implication of that is he had some to start...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 7,098
    ydoethur said:

    Again, the implication of that is he had some to start...
    While rather unfortunately named, Adonis has rather grown on me over the years.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 16,593
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Again, the implication of that is he had some to start...
    While rather unfortunately named, Adonis has rather grown on me over the years.

    The one advantage of Adonis being a Remainer is it takes the personal out of the equation.

    As I despise him and Gove about equally, I don't need to worry I am coming to my views on Europe out of personal animus towards the advocates of one side or another.
  • What would you have him do? Enact a one man sit-in of the red benches over Christmas?
    Quite right. He can be in against the length of holiday but still take advantage of it if it's happening anyway.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 905

    What would you have him do? Enact a one man sit-in of the red benches over Christmas?
    At Midnight on the 29th March will his head explode like a scene from Scanners?
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 1,127
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Again, the implication of that is he had some to start...
    While rather unfortunately named, Adonis has rather grown on me over the years.

    The one advantage of Adonis being a Remainer is it takes the personal out of the equation.

    As I despise him and Gove about equally, I don't need to worry I am coming to my views on Europe out of personal animus towards the advocates of one side or another.
    So, what is he actually meant to do - sit in the Lord's on his own fulminating about the absence of his fellow peers? Seriously, what would you have him do?
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,361

    What would you have him do? Enact a one man sit-in of the red benches over Christmas?
    Quite right. He can be in against the length of holiday but still take advantage of it if it's happening anyway.
    It stinks of hypocrisy to me. He's been bleating louder and louder.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 16,593
    Pro_Rata said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Again, the implication of that is he had some to start...
    While rather unfortunately named, Adonis has rather grown on me over the years.

    The one advantage of Adonis being a Remainer is it takes the personal out of the equation.

    As I despise him and Gove about equally, I don't need to worry I am coming to my views on Europe out of personal animus towards the advocates of one side or another.
    So, what is he actually meant to do - sit in the Lord's on his own fulminating about the absence of his fellow peers? Seriously, what would you have him do?
    That's got nothing to do with his latest tweets. I was just commenting on general principles.

    I do think it's unwise to fulminate against the length of holidays, demand an extension to the Parliamentary term and then jet off elsewhere. But that's a detail.

    This is quite a funny response - although I'm not sure he's thought through the full implications:
  • What would you have him do? Enact a one man sit-in of the red benches over Christmas?
    Quite right. He can be in against the length of holiday but still take advantage of it if it's happening anyway.
    It stinks of hypocrisy to me. He's been bleating louder and louder.
    I think panic is setting in.
  • Corbyn believes in Marx. He wants not only Brexit but crash Brexit. He sees many advantages:
    1. A crisis in Capitalism allows the intelligentsia (him, Diane Abbott, Richard Burgeon) to lead the proles to the victory of True Socialism
    2. The EU is the embodiment of capitalist evil and would stop his plans to renationalise BA
    3. Everyone agrees with him and will blame the personal disaster brought down on them by him on the Tories, this delivering a Commons majority for Labour of 704 in the next election

    For my part in this, mea culpa, mea culpa, mea maxima culpa
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 23,705
    That will be us losing the (Elgin) Marbles - as Greece's price for agreeing an extension.....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 16,593
    edited December 2018

    Corbyn believes in Marx. He wants not only Brexit but crash Brexit. He sees many advantages:
    1. A crisis in Capitalism allows the intelligentsia (him, Diane Abbott, Richard Burgeon) to lead the proles to the victory of True Socialism
    2. The EU is the embodiment of capitalist evil and would stop his plans to renationalise BA
    3. Everyone agrees with him and will blame the personal disaster brought down on them by him on the Tories, this delivering a Commons majority for Labour of 704 in the next election

    For my part in this, mea culpa, mea culpa, mea maxima culpa

    Are you saying, RP, that your work for Labour has lost Marx over this shambles?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 7,098
    ydoethur said:

    Corbyn believes in Marx. He wants not only Brexit but crash Brexit. He sees many advantages:
    1. A crisis in Capitalism allows the intelligentsia (him, Diane Abbott, Richard Burgeon) to lead the proles to the victory of True Socialism
    2. The EU is the embodiment of capitalist evil and would stop his plans to renationalise BA
    3. Everyone agrees with him and will blame the personal disaster brought down on them by him on the Tories, this delivering a Commons majority for Labour of 704 in the next election

    For my part in this, mea culpa, mea culpa, mea maxima culpa

    Are you saying, RP, that your work for Labour has lost Marx over this shambles?
    RP has covered all Engles in his post.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 14,814
    edited December 2018
    To state the obvious, it depends on how and why it happens. The most optimistic scenario is that there are sufficient MPs who have, by the time we reach that point, achieved some sort of consensus about what they want a replacement government to do - extension, revocation, referendum or whatever. This is more likely if we get to the point where either MPs conclude May is not bluffing about falling back to no deal, or that she is so close to the fire that we might fall into it by accident.

    The key point is that Corbyn himself would be beyond this consensus, which would be between the large number of 'moderate' Labour MPs, the large number of Tories opposed to 'no deal', and all the minor parties. Assuming there isn't some instant realignment of the parties, their objective would simply be a 'one job' government, after which there would be an election.

    Corbyn isn't the natural (nor acceptable) PM for such a government, and by his just made comments he has effectively ruled himself out. It would need someone willing and capable to step up as the figurehead, just for a few weeks, and gather as many like minded MPs (and people) as they can. Who this might be is of course a key and interesting question - the two possibilities are someone from the minor parties as a 'neutral' (Lucas is an interesting possibility), or more likely an experienced moderate politician from whichever of the two major parties is the larger within the consensus (Clarke, Cooper, Benn, etc.).

    So whilst agreeing David's route to an alternative PM, I don't see it being Corbyn. The interesting (and critical, for betting) question is whether protocol would demand Corbyn being given first dibs, as official opposition leader (AND whether he "counts" as next PM if he is allowed to try but fails?), or whether HMQ could go straight to someone else if it was obvious that person speaks for more MPs?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 14,814
    edited December 2018
    On the drones my guess is that Gatwick used that Israeli drone tracking radar thingy to follow it back to whoever was controlling it. Good job, if a little slow.
  • Good morning, comrades.

    I do wonder if extension is unlikely now and it'll be either revocation (followed by referendum, presumably) or nothing.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 16,593
    IanB2 said:

    To state the obvious, it depends on how and why it happens. The most optimistic scenario is that there are sufficient MPs who have, by the time we reach that point, achieved some sort of consensus about what they want a replacement government to do - extension, revocation, referendum or whatever. This is more likely if we get to the point where either MPs conclude May is not bluffing about falling back to no deal, or that she is so close to the fire that we might fall into it by accident.

    The key point is that Corbyn himself would be beyond this consensus, which would be between the large number of 'moderate' Labour MPs, the large number of Tories opposed to 'no deal', and all the minor parties. Assuming there isn't some instant realignment of the parties, their objective would simply be a 'one job' government, after which there would be an election.

    Corbyn isn't the natural (nor acceptable) PM for such a government, and by his just made comments he has effectively ruled himself out. It would need someone willing and capable to step up as the figurehead, just for a few weeks, and gather as many like minded MPs (and people) as they can. Who this might be is of course a key and interesting question - the two possibilities are someone from the minor parties as a 'neutral' (Lucas is an interesting possibility), or more likely an experienced moderate politician from whichever of the two major parties is the larger within the consensus (Clarke, Cooper, Benn, etc.).

    So whilst agreeing David's route to an alternative PM, I don't see it being Corbyn. The interesting (and critical, for betting) question is whether protocol would demand Corbyn being given first dibs, as official opposition leader (AND whether he "counts" as next PM if he is allowed to try but fails?), or whether HMQ could go straight to someone else if it was obvious that person speaks for more MPs?

    The only requirement is whoever she sends for must be the person best placed to command a majority in the Commons. The person who advises her is usually the outgoing PM. So no it does not have to be Corbyn.

    This was in fact how nearly all Tory leaders were chosen until 1965.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,361
    IanB2 said:

    On the drones my guess is that Gatwick used that Israeli drone tracking radar thingy to follow it back to whoever was controlling it. Good job, if a little slow.


    What's the likely sentence?. I think 5 yrs would not go amiss, given what they have done and how many people it has affected. An exemplary sentence, just like after the riots.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 16,938

    Corbyn believes in Marx. He wants not only Brexit but crash Brexit. He sees many advantages:
    1. A crisis in Capitalism allows the intelligentsia (him, Diane Abbott, Richard Burgeon) to lead the proles to the victory of True Socialism
    2. The EU is the embodiment of capitalist evil and would stop his plans to renationalise BA
    3. Everyone agrees with him and will blame the personal disaster brought down on them by him on the Tories, this delivering a Commons majority for Labour of 704 in the next election

    For my part in this, mea culpa, mea culpa, mea maxima culpa

    Is that last for voting for Labour or for Brexit?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 16,593

    IanB2 said:

    On the drones my guess is that Gatwick used that Israeli drone tracking radar thingy to follow it back to whoever was controlling it. Good job, if a little slow.


    What's the likely sentence?. I think 5 yrs would not go amiss, given what they have done and how many people it has affected. An exemplary sentence, just like after the riots.
    Five years, but watching The Last Jedi twice a day so they really get how boring and frustrating it was for those people at Gatwick.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 7,098
    IanB2 said:

    To state the obvious, it depends on how and why it happens. The most optimistic scenario is that there are sufficient MPs who have, by the time we reach that point, achieved some sort of consensus about what they want a replacement government to do - extension, revocation, referendum or whatever. This is more likely if we get to the point where either MPs conclude May is not bluffing about falling back to no deal, or that she is so close to the fire that we might fall into it by accident.

    The key point is that Corbyn himself would be beyond this consensus, which would be between the large number of 'moderate' Labour MPs, the large number of Tories opposed to 'no deal', and all the minor parties. Assuming there isn't some instant realignment of the parties, their objective would simply be a 'one job' government, after which there would be an election.

    Corbyn isn't the natural PM for such a government, and by his just made comments he has effectively ruled himself out. It would need someone willing and capable to step up as the figurehead, just for a few weeks, and gather as many like minded MPs (and people) as they can. Who this might be is of course a key and interesting question - the two possibilities are someone from the minor parties as a 'neutral' (Lucas is an interesting possibility), or more likely an experienced moderate politician from whichever of the two major parties is the larger within the consensus (Clarke, Cooper, Benn, etc.).

    So whilst agreeing David's route to an alternative PM, I don't see it being Corbyn. The interesting (and critical, for betting) question is whether protocol would demand Corbyn being given first dibs, as official opposition leader (AND whether he "counts" as next PM if he is allowed to try but fails?), or whether HMQ could go straight to someone else if it was obvious that person speaks for more MPs?

    A Tory party leadership election is a year away, and the timecourse for a Labour one is too long. Neither would back a leader of a minor party. We have to put up with dumb and dumber for a while yet. Both are stubborn enough for No Deal, and that is the default.

    Let the MPs enjoy their break, according to that Russian proverb "My house is burning down, I may as well warm my hands"

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 14,814
    edited December 2018
    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    To state the obvious, it depends on how and why it happens. The most optimistic scenario is that there are sufficient MPs who have, by the time we reach that point, achieved some sort of consensus about what they want a replacement government to do - extension, revocation, referendum or whatever. This is more likely if we get to the point where either MPs conclude May is not bluffing about falling back to no deal, or that she is so close to the fire that we might fall into it by accident.

    The key point is that Corbyn himself would be beyond this consensus, which would be between the large number of 'moderate' Labour MPs, the large number of Tories opposed to 'no deal', and all the minor parties. Assuming there isn't some instant realignment of the parties, their objective would simply be a 'one job' government, after which there would be an election.

    Corbyn isn't the natural (nor acceptable) PM for such a government, and by his just made comments he has effectively ruled himself out. It would need someone willing and capable to step up as the figurehead, just for a few weeks, and gather as many like minded MPs (and people) as they can. Who this might be is of course a key and interesting question - the two possibilities are someone from the minor parties as a 'neutral' (Lucas is an interesting possibility), or more likely an experienced moderate politician from whichever of the two major parties is the larger within the consensus (Clarke, Cooper, Benn, etc.).

    So whilst agreeing David's route to an alternative PM, I don't see it being Corbyn. The interesting (and critical, for betting) question is whether protocol would demand Corbyn being given first dibs, as official opposition leader (AND whether he "counts" as next PM if he is allowed to try but fails?), or whether HMQ could go straight to someone else if it was obvious that person speaks for more MPs?

    The only requirement is whoever she sends for must be the person best placed to command a majority in the Commons. The person who advises her is usually the outgoing PM. So no it does not have to be Corbyn.

    This was in fact how nearly all Tory leaders were chosen until 1965.
    But what requires May to give the 'right' answer? As against the answer she prefers, or the one that would be most disruptive. (Actually the answer is May's dutiful nature, but it's an interesting question if the outgoing PM were more cynical. Giving Corbyn a few weeks to waste trying and failing could make all the difference)
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,361
    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    On the drones my guess is that Gatwick used that Israeli drone tracking radar thingy to follow it back to whoever was controlling it. Good job, if a little slow.


    What's the likely sentence?. I think 5 yrs would not go amiss, given what they have done and how many people it has affected. An exemplary sentence, just like after the riots.
    Five years, but watching The Last Jedi twice a day so they really get how boring and frustrating it was for those people at Gatwick.
    Something much more devastating. Make them watch every episode of EastEnders right from the start. That'd take about 5 yrs one would think.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 16,593
    A wall has blocked off the US government.

    Mexico has said they will not pay for it despite the huge boost it has given to national entertainment.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-46657393
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 16,938
    edited December 2018
    Good thread.

    But I can see May as you suggest somehow ploughing on regardless. I think we will get the deal one way or another.

    Is HMQ inviting Jezza one constitutional step too far?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 16,593
    IanB2 said:

    But what requires May to give the 'right' answer? As against the answer she prefers, or the one that would be most disruptive. (Actually the answer is May's dutiful nature, but it's an interesting question if the outgoing PM were more cynical)

    Nothing. That's how the Tories got Home in 1963 instead of Butler, who was the PCP's choice. It was also a factor in Baldwin's elevation in 1923, and what Balfour was trying to do in 1905. It was apparently something Chamberlain considered in 1940 until Halifax spoiled the game by refusing.

    In practice I have to say I agree with you, I don't think May whatever her many faults would play games at such a juncture. A more interesting problem would however be trying to work out who would command the confidence of the House and that is where it might get sticky.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 16,593

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    On the drones my guess is that Gatwick used that Israeli drone tracking radar thingy to follow it back to whoever was controlling it. Good job, if a little slow.


    What's the likely sentence?. I think 5 yrs would not go amiss, given what they have done and how many people it has affected. An exemplary sentence, just like after the riots.
    Five years, but watching The Last Jedi twice a day so they really get how boring and frustrating it was for those people at Gatwick.
    Something much more devastating. Make them watch every episode of EastEnders right from the start. That'd take about 5 yrs one would think.
    Now hang on. There's punishment and there's torture...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 14,814
    edited December 2018
    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    To state the obvious, it depends on how and why it happens. The most optimistic scenario is that there are sufficient MPs who have, by the time we reach that point, achieved some sort of consensus about what they want a replacement government to do - extension, revocation, referendum or whatever. This is more likely if we get to the point where either MPs conclude May is not bluffing about falling back to no deal, or that she is so close to the fire that we might fall into it by accident.

    The key point is that Corbyn himself would be beyond this consensus, which would be between the large number of 'moderate' Labour MPs, the large number of Tories opposed to 'no deal', and all the minor parties. Assuming there isn't some instant realignment of the parties, their objective would simply be a 'one job' government, after which there would be an election.

    Corbyn isn't the natural PM for such a government, and by his just made comments he has effectively ruled himself out. It would need someone willing and capable to step up as the figurehead, just for a few weeks, and gather as many like minded MPs (and people) as they can. Who this might be is of course a key and interesting question - the two possibilities are someone from the minor parties as a 'neutral' (Lucas is an interesting possibility), or more likely an experienced moderate politician from whichever of the two major parties is the larger within the consensus (Clarke, Cooper, Benn, etc.).

    So whilst agreeing David's route to an alternative PM, I don't see it being Corbyn. The interesting (and critical, for betting) question is whether protocol would demand Corbyn being given first dibs, as official opposition leader (AND whether he "counts" as next PM if he is allowed to try but fails?), or whether HMQ could go straight to someone else if it was obvious that person speaks for more MPs?

    A Tory party leadership election is a year away, and the timecourse for a Labour one is too long. Neither would back a leader of a minor party. We have to put up with dumb and dumber for a while yet. Both are stubborn enough for No Deal, and that is the default.

    Let the MPs enjoy their break, according to that Russian proverb "My house is burning down, I may as well warm my hands"

    I think the argument would be that a leader of a 'one job' short-term government should be someone who isn't in the running for PM later on. If my imagined 'consensus' contains a big number of Tories and Labour, it is obviously problematic to put one of the party leaders in as PM.

    Someone like Clarke who is obviously on their way out might be a possibility. Or Grieve, as a respected technocrat.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 16,593
    Of course, we are all assuming Corbyn would accept - even though he would have to kneel and kiss the Queen's hand...
  • TOPPING said:

    Good thread.

    But I can see May as you suggest somehow ploughing on regardless. I think we will get the deal one way or another.

    Is HMQ inviting Jezza one constitutional step too far?

    I'm starting to think May's deal is the least worst option. A brief exit into the penalty box, realisation that unicorn cake was a delusion after all, then back in properly
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 2,576

    Good morning, comrades.

    I do wonder if extension is unlikely now and it'll be either revocation (followed by referendum, presumably) or nothing.

    I'm still of the opinion that the likely options (in descending order) are:

    1. No Deal
    2. Realignment, Revocation, General Election
    3. Labour moderates blink: Deal, General Election

    Followed by the unlikely options:

    4. Government falls in January, March General Election, then who knows?
    5. Realignment, A50 extension granted, Referendum, implement result, General Election
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,361
    edited December 2018
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    On the drones my guess is that Gatwick used that Israeli drone tracking radar thingy to follow it back to whoever was controlling it. Good job, if a little slow.


    What's the likely sentence?. I think 5 yrs would not go amiss, given what they have done and how many people it has affected. An exemplary sentence, just like after the riots.
    Five years, but watching The Last Jedi twice a day so they really get how boring and frustrating it was for those people at Gatwick.
    Something much more devastating. Make them watch every episode of EastEnders right from the start. That'd take about 5 yrs one would think.
    Now hang on. There's punishment and there's torture...
    If they ran out of time.. there's always that soap set on the Spanish Riviera... Eldorado.. just in case they need it...
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 16,938

    TOPPING said:

    Good thread.

    But I can see May as you suggest somehow ploughing on regardless. I think we will get the deal one way or another.

    Is HMQ inviting Jezza one constitutional step too far?

    I'm starting to think May's deal is the least worst option. A brief exit into the penalty box, realisation that unicorn cake was a delusion after all, then back in properly
    Welcome aboard.

    Of course it is the least worst option.

    Better one sinner...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 16,593

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    On the drones my guess is that Gatwick used that Israeli drone tracking radar thingy to follow it back to whoever was controlling it. Good job, if a little slow.


    What's the likely sentence?. I think 5 yrs would not go amiss, given what they have done and how many people it has affected. An exemplary sentence, just like after the riots.
    Five years, but watching The Last Jedi twice a day so they really get how boring and frustrating it was for those people at Gatwick.
    Something much more devastating. Make them watch every episode of EastEnders right from the start. That'd take about 5 yrs one would think.
    Now hang on. There's punishment and there's torture...
    If they ran out of time.. there's always that soap set on the Spanish Riviera... Eldorado.. just in case they need it...
    I've been doing the maths, and it doesn't work. There have been 5829 episodes of Eastenders. Given the overwhelming majority are half an hour, that's about 3,000 hours of footage. Assuming twelve hours a day of watching, that's only 230 days. What are they supposed to do for the rest of their 1826 day sentence?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 14,814

    Good morning, comrades.

    I do wonder if extension is unlikely now and it'll be either revocation (followed by referendum, presumably) or nothing.

    I'm still of the opinion that the likely options (in descending order) are:

    1. No Deal
    2. Realignment, Revocation, General Election
    3. Labour moderates blink: Deal, General Election

    Followed by the unlikely options:

    4. Government falls in January, March General Election, then who knows?
    5. Realignment, A50 extension granted, Referendum, implement result, General Election
    No, some variant of 3 is still most likely; some of the Tory antis are well on their way to blinking already. Next are the 'political' options embraced by your 2, 4 and 5. 1 is still bottom.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,562
    Somewhat boringly I agree with the consensus on here, that the Palace would call upon anyone who was thought to be capable of securing a majority in the House. That pretty much rules out Corbyn, short of the ERG suddenly announcing their support of him, which is unlikely.

    I think if a VonC passed, and it seems unlikely if the MV has failed since the DUP would still be on board in that scenario, the Tories would be given a brief period to find an alternative leader who could win the DUP back or alternative support. A commitment to a second referendum might be sufficient to bring in the Lib Dems on a supply basis, for example. There is no chance that this gap would involve the opportunity to consult the membership so some sort of coronation would have to be attempted. A break up of the Tory party becomes a real possibility at that point.

    In the meantime May is ramping up the pressure. There will come a point in January when even Corbyn will not be able to pretend that there is an option of renegotiating a better deal with the EU before the end date. The options then are May's deal, no deal and revoke. I don't think an extension is at all likely at this point, it is not in our gift. My guess is that at that point Corbyn will allow May's deal to pass, probably by abstention.

    There is, and always has been, a majority in Parliament for preventing Brexit. It is why the course to be followed to bring it into effect makes the Grand National look like a gentle stroll. But the remainers do not have control of the agenda and it is difficult to see how they get it. The only way I see would be a resolution to revoke Article 50 and even that is uncertain because it might well require an Act of Parliament. The Miller decision preventing revocation would just be too delicious.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 10,597
    edited December 2018
    Very good interview with George Osborne on radio 4. He says Mrs May's huge mistake was to say "Brexit means Brexit" dismissing and alienating 16 million voters. He thinks the most likely solution is a General Election. The most effective and underrated method for sorting out an impasse
  • RobDRobD Posts: 35,996
    Foxy said:

    What would you have him do? Enact a one man sit-in of the red benches over Christmas?
    Let them sweat it out in their constituencies. It's not as if they are getting anywhere in Westminster.

    The WA merely kicks the can down the road for 21 months, the same debates on No Deal vs vassal status just continue.

    After the WA is signed there cannot be no deal since we will be locked into the customs union by the backstop.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 14,814
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    On the drones my guess is that Gatwick used that Israeli drone tracking radar thingy to follow it back to whoever was controlling it. Good job, if a little slow.


    What's the likely sentence?. I think 5 yrs would not go amiss, given what they have done and how many people it has affected. An exemplary sentence, just like after the riots.
    Five years, but watching The Last Jedi twice a day so they really get how boring and frustrating it was for those people at Gatwick.
    Something much more devastating. Make them watch every episode of EastEnders right from the start. That'd take about 5 yrs one would think.
    Now hang on. There's punishment and there's torture...
    If they ran out of time.. there's always that soap set on the Spanish Riviera... Eldorado.. just in case they need it...
    I've been doing the maths, and it doesn't work. There have been 5829 episodes of Eastenders. Given the overwhelming majority are half an hour, that's about 3,000 hours of footage. Assuming twelve hours a day of watching, that's only 230 days. What are they supposed to do for the rest of their 1826 day sentence?
    Repeats?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 2,576

    TOPPING said:

    Good thread.

    But I can see May as you suggest somehow ploughing on regardless. I think we will get the deal one way or another.

    Is HMQ inviting Jezza one constitutional step too far?

    I'm starting to think May's deal is the least worst option. A brief exit into the penalty box, realisation that unicorn cake was a delusion after all, then back in properly
    The idea of going back in makes two big assumptions: that the electorate would want to go to all the trouble of getting mixed up in the EU again, and that the EU member states would welcome us back (even minus all the opt-outs.)

    Rejoin is a more likely option exiting on the negotiated terms rather than leaving without a WA, but it's still going to be very tough to achieve in practice.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 14,814
    For betting, if someone is asked to become PM but fails to put together a government, do they count as 'next PM'?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,562

    TOPPING said:

    Good thread.

    But I can see May as you suggest somehow ploughing on regardless. I think we will get the deal one way or another.

    Is HMQ inviting Jezza one constitutional step too far?

    I'm starting to think May's deal is the least worst option. A brief exit into the penalty box, realisation that unicorn cake was a delusion after all, then back in properly
    May's deal is seriously disappointing but TINA applies. The consequences of any of the alternatives are seriously worse.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 2,576
    IanB2 said:

    Good morning, comrades.

    I do wonder if extension is unlikely now and it'll be either revocation (followed by referendum, presumably) or nothing.

    I'm still of the opinion that the likely options (in descending order) are:

    1. No Deal
    2. Realignment, Revocation, General Election
    3. Labour moderates blink: Deal, General Election

    Followed by the unlikely options:

    4. Government falls in January, March General Election, then who knows?
    5. Realignment, A50 extension granted, Referendum, implement result, General Election
    No, some variant of 3 is still most likely; some of the Tory antis are well on their way to blinking already. Next are the 'political' options embraced by your 2, 4 and 5. 1 is still bottom.
    Throwing a wobbly on Twitter is one thing. Actually taking concrete action is quite another.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 16,593
    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    On the drones my guess is that Gatwick used that Israeli drone tracking radar thingy to follow it back to whoever was controlling it. Good job, if a little slow.


    What's the likely sentence?. I think 5 yrs would not go amiss, given what they have done and how many people it has affected. An exemplary sentence, just like after the riots.
    Five years, but watching The Last Jedi twice a day so they really get how boring and frustrating it was for those people at Gatwick.
    Something much more devastating. Make them watch every episode of EastEnders right from the start. That'd take about 5 yrs one would think.
    Now hang on. There's punishment and there's torture...
    If they ran out of time.. there's always that soap set on the Spanish Riviera... Eldorado.. just in case they need it...
    I've been doing the maths, and it doesn't work. There have been 5829 episodes of Eastenders. Given the overwhelming majority are half an hour, that's about 3,000 hours of footage. Assuming twelve hours a day of watching, that's only 230 days. What are they supposed to do for the rest of their 1826 day sentence?
    Repeats?
    Wow. Somebody is *really* pissed off with these guys.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 14,814
    Roger said:

    Very good interview with George Osborne on radio 4. He says Mrs May's huge mistake was to say "Brexit means Brexit" dismissing and alienating 16 million voters. He thinks the most likely solution is a General Election. The most effective and underrated method for sorting out an impasse

    Except that our voting system and the existing party structure makes it an extremely poor way to resolve what would effectively be a second referendum. Most voters don't know what their particular candidates think, which in many cases is radically different from their party. And the tactical voting considerations would be horrendous, and again beyond most voters.
  • IanB2 said:

    On the drones my guess is that Gatwick used that Israeli drone tracking radar thingy to follow it back to whoever was controlling it. Good job, if a little slow.


    What's the likely sentence?. I think 5 yrs would not go amiss, given what they have done and how many people it has affected. An exemplary sentence, just like after the riots.
    Five years plus unlimited fine. Then of course Gatwick Airport and the airlines could sue them for damages which must run into the tens of millions....So if they have any assets....like a house.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 20,895

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    First! Like Leave and the Deal.

    Which deal?

    The only Deal on the table.
    The one that barely 1 in 6 of the country supports? yes that is the recipie for harmony during the next phase.

    When the other 5 are split between mutually incompatible outcomes it may be the least worst option.
    ydoethur said:

    What would you have him do? Enact a one man sit-in of the red benches over Christmas?
    Be a little more self aware in his tweeting - but then he's already revealed himself unfit to hold office again, so perhaps its not a bad thing.
    'Again?' This implies there was a time when he WAS fit to hold office...
    Fair point - but you have to admire his brass neck for criticising others for taking holiday one day, then boasting the next how he's got out of Gatwick to go on holiday....
    It is far from the least bad option unfortunately, a real dog's breakfast.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 24,604

    TOPPING said:

    Good thread.

    But I can see May as you suggest somehow ploughing on regardless. I think we will get the deal one way or another.

    Is HMQ inviting Jezza one constitutional step too far?

    I'm starting to think May's deal is the least worst option. A brief exit into the penalty box, realisation that unicorn cake was a delusion after all, then back in properly
    The idea of going back in makes two big assumptions: that the electorate would want to go to all the trouble of getting mixed up in the EU again, and that the EU member states would welcome us back (even minus all the opt-outs.)

    Rejoin is a more likely option exiting on the negotiated terms rather than leaving without a WA, but it's still going to be very tough to achieve in practice.
    Throwing out the referendum result in its entirety is extremely unlikely. The political ramifications - unless Remain was 30+% ahead in the polls - would be simply too serious.

    The only "way back", therefore, would probably look like this:

    1. We exit to EFTA/EEA
    2. The EFTA/EEA arrangement gets reworked into Associate EU Membership (with maybe Sweden and one or two others leaving the core Eurozone)
    3. ??Some tevent??
    4. The UK rejoins the full EU

    Steps 1 and 2, while not likely, are definitely possible. After that it all gets a bit more unlikely.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,562
    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    On the drones my guess is that Gatwick used that Israeli drone tracking radar thingy to follow it back to whoever was controlling it. Good job, if a little slow.


    What's the likely sentence?. I think 5 yrs would not go amiss, given what they have done and how many people it has affected. An exemplary sentence, just like after the riots.
    Five years, but watching The Last Jedi twice a day so they really get how boring and frustrating it was for those people at Gatwick.
    Something much more devastating. Make them watch every episode of EastEnders right from the start. That'd take about 5 yrs one would think.
    Now hang on. There's punishment and there's torture...
    If they ran out of time.. there's always that soap set on the Spanish Riviera... Eldorado.. just in case they need it...
    I've been doing the maths, and it doesn't work. There have been 5829 episodes of Eastenders. Given the overwhelming majority are half an hour, that's about 3,000 hours of footage. Assuming twelve hours a day of watching, that's only 230 days. What are they supposed to do for the rest of their 1826 day sentence?
    Repeats?
    Whilst at my Christmas lunch it was suggested that the charge sheet should be

    1. That on 20th December 2018 at 20.18 you did imperil flight number XY123 and cause it to divert.
    .....
    865. That on 21st December at 9.14 you did imperil flight number AB678 and cause it to divert.

    We reckoned the Court could get up to about 4000 years as a punishment.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 14,814

    IanB2 said:

    Good morning, comrades.

    I do wonder if extension is unlikely now and it'll be either revocation (followed by referendum, presumably) or nothing.

    I'm still of the opinion that the likely options (in descending order) are:

    1. No Deal
    2. Realignment, Revocation, General Election
    3. Labour moderates blink: Deal, General Election

    Followed by the unlikely options:

    4. Government falls in January, March General Election, then who knows?
    5. Realignment, A50 extension granted, Referendum, implement result, General Election
    No, some variant of 3 is still most likely; some of the Tory antis are well on their way to blinking already. Next are the 'political' options embraced by your 2, 4 and 5. 1 is still bottom.
    Throwing a wobbly on Twitter is one thing. Actually taking concrete action is quite another.
    Eh?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 16,593
    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    What would you have him do? Enact a one man sit-in of the red benches over Christmas?
    Let them sweat it out in their constituencies. It's not as if they are getting anywhere in Westminster.

    The WA merely kicks the can down the road for 21 months, the same debates on No Deal vs vassal status just continue.

    After the WA is signed there cannot be no deal since we will be locked into the customs union by the backstop.
    Which would in many important ways be perfect. After all, it means the EU can get nothing on CAP, or CFP, or trade agreements, or financial payments. And since the impact on Northern Ireland would in practice be limited, and given they would have the priceless advantage of free trade to the EU and the UK (yes, they really would and there is nothing the EU could do about it) it might well be beneficial.

    This is also why the EU are evidently getting nervous about this backstop and tipping towards No Deal instead.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 24,604
    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    What would you have him do? Enact a one man sit-in of the red benches over Christmas?
    Let them sweat it out in their constituencies. It's not as if they are getting anywhere in Westminster.

    The WA merely kicks the can down the road for 21 months, the same debates on No Deal vs vassal status just continue.

    After the WA is signed there cannot be no deal since we will be locked into the customs union by the backstop.
    There can be No Deal by HMG announcing that it chose to no longer be bound by the terms of the Withdrawal Agreement.
  • Good morning, comrades.

    I do wonder if extension is unlikely now and it'll be either revocation (followed by referendum, presumably) or nothing.

    I'm still of the opinion that the likely options (in descending order) are:

    1. No Deal
    2. Realignment, Revocation, General Election
    3. Labour moderates blink: Deal, General Election

    Followed by the unlikely options:

    4. Government falls in January, March General Election, then who knows?
    5. Realignment, A50 extension granted, Referendum, implement result, General Election

    I would reverse the order of 1 to 3, except a Deal passing will not be followed by a GE until 2022.

    Which neither Corbyn nor May will contest.

    Magic Grandpa's remaining sparkle was wiped off in the Guardian today.....
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 20,895
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Good thread.

    But I can see May as you suggest somehow ploughing on regardless. I think we will get the deal one way or another.

    Is HMQ inviting Jezza one constitutional step too far?

    I'm starting to think May's deal is the least worst option. A brief exit into the penalty box, realisation that unicorn cake was a delusion after all, then back in properly
    Welcome aboard.

    Of course it is the least worst option.

    Better one sinner...
    Rubbish , why go through all that crap to help the Tory clowns. Just get on with revoking A50 and get these morons out of office, a cardboard cutout could do a better job.
  • When the markets come about, the seat bands for those backing May's deal could be interesting. May's support is 200 MPs or lower, personally, but her deal, with all the news stories, may end up doing rather better. And if it looks close more Labour MPs may peel away from the bearded tit to support it.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 16,593
    edited December 2018
    malcolmg said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Good thread.

    But I can see May as you suggest somehow ploughing on regardless. I think we will get the deal one way or another.

    Is HMQ inviting Jezza one constitutional step too far?

    I'm starting to think May's deal is the least worst option. A brief exit into the penalty box, realisation that unicorn cake was a delusion after all, then back in properly
    Welcome aboard.

    Of course it is the least worst option.

    Better one sinner...
    Rubbish , why go through all that crap to help the Tory clowns. Just get on with revoking A50 and get these morons out of office, a cardboard cutout could do a better job.
    Morning Malcolm, hope the turnips are OK up there.

    And I trust the root vegetables are in rude health as well :smile:
  • malcolmg said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    First! Like Leave and the Deal.

    Which deal?

    The only Deal on the table.
    The one that barely 1 in 6 of the country supports? yes that is the recipie for harmony during the next phase.

    When the other 5 are split between mutually incompatible outcomes it may be the least worst option.
    ydoethur said:

    What would you have him do? Enact a one man sit-in of the red benches over Christmas?
    Be a little more self aware in his tweeting - but then he's already revealed himself unfit to hold office again, so perhaps its not a bad thing.
    'Again?' This implies there was a time when he WAS fit to hold office...
    Fair point - but you have to admire his brass neck for criticising others for taking holiday one day, then boasting the next how he's got out of Gatwick to go on holiday....
    It is far from the least bad option unfortunately, a real dog's breakfast.
    Which is the least bad option, on the table?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 12,638
    How many times does Corbyn have to say that he will go through with Brexit before people start believing him?

    Remainers putting their hope in Corbyn are deluded. Eventually, maybe, the penny will drop.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 16,593
    Scott_P said:
    Grayling or Adonis. Who is the more useless?

    I think much tossing will be going on to decide between those two...
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 20,895

    That will be us losing the (Elgin) Marbles - as Greece's price for agreeing an extension.....
    Just some old bricks in London , who cares a jot.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 43,382
    Cyclefree said:

    How many times does Corbyn have to say that he will go through with Brexit before people start believing him?

    Remainers putting their hope in Corbyn are deluded. Eventually, maybe, the penny will drop.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,562
    Scott_P said:
    I bow to no one in my belief that Grayling is a complete idiot with the reverse Midas touch by which everything he touches turns to shit but we do actually have quite a lot of laws about the use of drones already.
  • Mr. P, Grayling being of limited use is not the most shocking story of the year.

    Mr. Doethur, the enhanced space cannon barrel is, helpfully, large enough to accommodate both Grayling *and* Adonis concurrently.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 16,593

    Mr. P, Grayling being of limited use is not the most shocking story of the year.

    Mr. Doethur, the enhanced space cannon barrel is, helpfully, large enough to accommodate both Grayling *and* Adonis concurrently.

    I was going to build on my tossing metaphor and say we should bang them both.

    Then I thought - maybe not...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 16,593
    edited December 2018
    Hell's bells, how did that get posted twice?
  • Roger said:

    Very good interview with George Osborne on radio 4. He says Mrs May's huge mistake was to say "Brexit means Brexit" dismissing and alienating 16 million voters. He thinks the most likely solution is a General Election. The most effective and underrated method for sorting out an impasse

    I'm not sure a General Election fixes it either, though. If the Tories win you reelect the same MPs who won't pass the deal now. Would they pass it then? Or maybe you get Corbyn, whose approach to Brexit is the same as TMay's but without the honesty and decisiveness.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 20,895
    ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Good thread.

    But I can see May as you suggest somehow ploughing on regardless. I think we will get the deal one way or another.

    Is HMQ inviting Jezza one constitutional step too far?

    I'm starting to think May's deal is the least worst option. A brief exit into the penalty box, realisation that unicorn cake was a delusion after all, then back in properly
    Welcome aboard.

    Of course it is the least worst option.

    Better one sinner...
    Rubbish , why go through all that crap to help the Tory clowns. Just get on with revoking A50 and get these morons out of office, a cardboard cutout could do a better job.
    Morning Malcolm, hope the turnips are OK up there.

    And I trust the root vegetables are in rude health as well :smile:
    Morning Ydoethur, Most of them seem to be in Westminster and surrounding areas, though some of the really rotten ones have been left up here.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 35,996
    Scott_P said:
    Would those regulations have done anything?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 2,576
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Good morning, comrades.

    I do wonder if extension is unlikely now and it'll be either revocation (followed by referendum, presumably) or nothing.

    I'm still of the opinion that the likely options (in descending order) are:

    1. No Deal
    2. Realignment, Revocation, General Election
    3. Labour moderates blink: Deal, General Election

    Followed by the unlikely options:

    4. Government falls in January, March General Election, then who knows?
    5. Realignment, A50 extension granted, Referendum, implement result, General Election
    No, some variant of 3 is still most likely; some of the Tory antis are well on their way to blinking already. Next are the 'political' options embraced by your 2, 4 and 5. 1 is still bottom.
    Throwing a wobbly on Twitter is one thing. Actually taking concrete action is quite another.
    Eh?
    I know this is hard to credit, but people making noises off about taking drastic action in the event of some hypothetical situation coming to pass aren't guaranteed to follow through with their threats 100% of the time. Besides, I think only 3 or 4 Tory antis have been suggesting that they'd resign the whip over No Deal: even if all of them really were willing to bring down the Government it still wouldn't be enough.

    Labour Europhiles lending their votes, in effect, to prop up a Conservative administration is also a very big deal.

    There are substantial barriers to a realignment, but it's even more difficult to see how MPs from one side act unilaterally and then escape punishment at the General Election which is highly likely to follow.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,562
    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Good thread.

    But I can see May as you suggest somehow ploughing on regardless. I think we will get the deal one way or another.

    Is HMQ inviting Jezza one constitutional step too far?

    I'm starting to think May's deal is the least worst option. A brief exit into the penalty box, realisation that unicorn cake was a delusion after all, then back in properly
    Welcome aboard.

    Of course it is the least worst option.

    Better one sinner...
    Rubbish , why go through all that crap to help the Tory clowns. Just get on with revoking A50 and get these morons out of office, a cardboard cutout could do a better job.
    Morning Malcolm, hope the turnips are OK up there.

    And I trust the root vegetables are in rude health as well :smile:
    Morning Ydoethur, Most of them seem to be in Westminster and surrounding areas, though some of the really rotten ones have been left up here.
    The problem of the Scottish Parliament in a nut shell.

    Morning Malc.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 10,597
    Scott_P said:

    Cyclefree said:

    How many times does Corbyn have to say that he will go through with Brexit before people start believing him?

    Remainers putting their hope in Corbyn are deluded. Eventually, maybe, the penny will drop.

    Eat shit. 17,000.000 flies can't be wrong
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 16,593
    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Good thread.

    But I can see May as you suggest somehow ploughing on regardless. I think we will get the deal one way or another.

    Is HMQ inviting Jezza one constitutional step too far?

    I'm starting to think May's deal is the least worst option. A brief exit into the penalty box, realisation that unicorn cake was a delusion after all, then back in properly
    Welcome aboard.

    Of course it is the least worst option.

    Better one sinner...
    Rubbish , why go through all that crap to help the Tory clowns. Just get on with revoking A50 and get these morons out of office, a cardboard cutout could do a better job.
    Morning Malcolm, hope the turnips are OK up there.

    And I trust the root vegetables are in rude health as well :smile:
    Morning Ydoethur, Most of them seem to be in Westminster and surrounding areas, though some of the really rotten ones have been left up here.
    You should try Chase District Council.

    And when you do, please give them all life sentences.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,562
    ydoethur said:

    Hell's bells, how did that get posted twice?

    Obviously Vanilla appreciates your wit, even if, well, let's just leave it there.
This discussion has been closed.