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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why Corbyn could be the one to extend Article 50 in the New Ye

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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962
    Scott_P said:

    We do business in the UK, and Ireland, Belgium, Spain and Germany.

    A .eu domain allowed the staff to have a .eu email address whichever office they work out of.

    Until Brexit.

    Then have the domain owned by one of the offices in the EU, simples.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    RobD said:


    Then have the domain owned by one of the offices in the EU, simples.

    Transfer business from the UK to Ireland.

    Yes, Brexit in a nutshell...
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    mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    edited December 2018
    RobD said:


    That’s OK though - the nail bar sector is flourishing.

    At the risk of sounding like the kind of cunt I hate, you're talking Britain down. Britain has a lot of really good industries that it does really well. Pharma is excellent, higher education is very good, software development is good and often great especially stuff like game development, finance is often world-beating. The things I mentioned are are *service* industries, but "service industry" doesn't equal "nail bar" and the hard currency you get for selling those services to foreigners is just as good as if you were selling them coal. And there's a fair bit of high-value-add manufacturing too.
    I completely agree. It always annoyed me that "services" are treated like an after-thought to Manufacturing. As if they were somehow 2nd rate
    It’s Stakhanovite cretin level thinking. It appeals to many.
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    stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,779
    RobD said:

    Looking forward to it, St John. I've sent them a vanilla message them to make sure they don't miss your message here.

    Thanks RobD.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962
    Scott_P said:

    RobD said:


    Then have the domain owned by one of the offices in the EU, simples.

    Transfer business from the UK to Ireland.

    Yes, Brexit in a nutshell...
    Given that the cost to register the domain was already going to the EU, there's no net loss.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962
    matt - I think the quotes are screwed up on your post. I don't recall saying that :p
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    mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    edited December 2018
    Dura_Ace said:

    Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    notme2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    McDonnell said as much on Thursday. However, he went on to say that he agreed with the Varoufakis approach of sending as many socialists as possible to Brussels to achieve reform from within.
    Madness. The abandonment of state aid has made the whole European continent wealthier and leaner.
    I'm sure the former steelworkers of Redcar will agree.
    The UK lacks indigenous iron ore. It lacks cheap energy.

    Are you suggesting that the government should subsidise things that we cannot have a competitive advantage in perpetually?

    Or would it be better if the government - as happened in East Germany - encouraged and subsidised areas to move on?
    Look at the bigger picture. If you shut down industry the state has to pay people to sit at home. Healthcare costs rise. Social services costs rise. Criminality increases. Academic performance of the next generation declines. Other businesses in the area go to the wall. Our balance of payments deficit gets worse.

    It can be more cost effective for government to intervene to support British industry and British society. As well being the ethical thing to do.
    When you say ‘can’, could you point to an example of when supporting outdated industry has been a success?
    Nationalising and bailing out Rolls-Royce when they bankrupted themselves developing the RB211 was probably the right move in hindsight.
    Equally, forcing Rootes to open Linwood killed the company. State intervention in industry has trended more to the latter than Rolls-Royce.
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    mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    RobD said:

    matt - I think the quotes are screwed up on your post. I don't recall saying that :p

    Yeah. In essence the idea that manufacturing is of greater moral value than services is the sort of nonsense that politicans and other hard of thinking individuals love.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,191
    edited December 2018
    stjohn said:

    RobD said:

    Looking forward to it, St John. I've sent them a vanilla message them to make sure they don't miss your message here.

    Thanks RobD.
    I'm much looking forward to a thread about stjohn's invariably excellent crossword rather than yet another fecking thread full of cross words about Brexit.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,105
    ydoethur said:

    stjohn said:

    RobD said:

    Looking forward to it, St John. I've sent them a vanilla message them to make sure they don't miss your message here.

    Thanks RobD.
    I'm much looking forward to a thread about stjohn's invariably excellent crossword rather than yet another fecking thread full of cross words about Brexit.
    My guess is that 6 down will be Brexit......
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962
    ydoethur said:

    stjohn said:

    RobD said:

    Looking forward to it, St John. I've sent them a vanilla message them to make sure they don't miss your message here.

    Thanks RobD.
    I'm much looking forward to a thread about stjohn's invariably excellent crossword rather than yet another fecking thread full of cross words about Brexit.
    Was there a pun in there? Your post was somewhat cryptic.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,263
    Sean_F said:

    From the frontline of this insanity:

    https://twitter.com/batanball/status/1076230038251622400

    The Tories are going to reap a whirlwind for doing this to Britain.

    That's just projection. Lot's of people support Brexit, and support the Conservatives accordingly,
    I wager that more do now than will remember having done so later.
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    stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,779

    ydoethur said:

    stjohn said:

    RobD said:

    Looking forward to it, St John. I've sent them a vanilla message them to make sure they don't miss your message here.

    Thanks RobD.
    I'm much looking forward to a thread about stjohn's invariably excellent crossword rather than yet another fecking thread full of cross words about Brexit.
    My guess is that 6 down will be Brexit......
    2 down is Brexit Secretarys.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,191
    RobD said:

    ydoethur said:

    stjohn said:

    RobD said:

    Looking forward to it, St John. I've sent them a vanilla message them to make sure they don't miss your message here.

    Thanks RobD.
    I'm much looking forward to a thread about stjohn's invariably excellent crossword rather than yet another fecking thread full of cross words about Brexit.
    Was there a pun in there? Your post was somewhat cryptic.
    It was just a quick one, actually..,
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,105
    edited December 2018
    stjohn said:

    ydoethur said:

    stjohn said:

    RobD said:

    Looking forward to it, St John. I've sent them a vanilla message them to make sure they don't miss your message here.

    Thanks RobD.
    I'm much looking forward to a thread about stjohn's invariably excellent crossword rather than yet another fecking thread full of cross words about Brexit.
    My guess is that 6 down will be Brexit......
    2 down is Brexit Secretarys.
    Brexit lends itself to good clues - with the king in the middle bit.....
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,191
    stjohn said:

    ydoethur said:

    stjohn said:

    RobD said:

    Looking forward to it, St John. I've sent them a vanilla message them to make sure they don't miss your message here.

    Thanks RobD.
    I'm much looking forward to a thread about stjohn's invariably excellent crossword rather than yet another fecking thread full of cross words about Brexit.
    My guess is that 6 down will be Brexit......
    2 down is Brexit Secretarys.
    6 million down is 'Corbyn's support this last week?'
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    Corbyn is clueless. The EU aren’t going to renegotiate their deal which gives them everything they want for nothing much in return and Article 50 needs EU permission to be extended. They have already said they won’t do that except for a second referendum which Corbyn ruled out today, thereby alienating the naive youth who backed him last time on a false promise of tuition fees abolition.

    Corbyn might well win the next GE after May loses both her deal and the subsequent VONC but he won’t extend article 50, which perversely, reduces his chances of winning the GE.

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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,191

    Corbyn is clueless.

    So Corbyn won't be an answer to the crossword puzzle then?
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited December 2018
    MaxPB said:

    I should add that i did have some customers who were uk based and traded in Holland under a .eu domain. That was their only domain and so they will undoubtedly be affected

    Can they not do what Robert suggested, open an Estonian subsidiary for peanuts and keep the website registered under that subsidiary?
    I am sure they can. But it is added admin and added costs that they do not have to face today. There is no advantage conferred by Brexit - quite the opposite. One of the Brexit promises was reduced admin.... :)

    I know is only small, but think of a burger bun with 100 sesame seeds on top. The company realises that it can save 5% by using 95 seeds per bun and does so. No one complains, so it takes another 5% off. No one complains, so it takes another 5% off.... all small changes with no apparent effect except at some point someone notices the seeds have thinned out. Do it 20 times and there are no seeds.

    Make enough small, innocuous changes and cumulatively they can have an effect.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,917

    eek said:

    Sean_F said:

    From the frontline of this insanity:

    https://twitter.com/batanball/status/1076230038251622400

    The Tories are going to reap a whirlwind for doing this to Britain.

    That's just projection. Lot's of people support Brexit, and support the Conservatives accordingly,
    And when the supermarket doesn't have x,y,z because of Brexit the Conservatives will collect all the blame.

    The only reason it isn't obvious now is because Labour is so bad....
    There are a couple of generations of UK citizens who have grown up in a world of almost endless choice, and ready supply of goods, food and services. You have to be at least, what 50-odd, to even remember the three day week or 70s power cuts etc, never mind war rationing.

    Given the state people get into when say KFC can't deliver, or there is a rail strike, then there will be almighty hell if any of the No Deal warnings turn out to be true.
    Ooh do KFC do deliveries now ? Didn't realise that. Not that there is one near me anyway !
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,986

    Corbyn is clueless. The EU aren’t going to renegotiate their deal which gives them everything they want for nothing much in return and Article 50 needs EU permission to be extended. They have already said they won’t do that except for a second referendum which Corbyn ruled out today, thereby alienating the naive youth who backed him last time on a false promise of tuition fees abolition.

    Corbyn might well win the next GE after May loses both her deal and the subsequent VONC but he won’t extend article 50, which perversely, reduces his chances of winning the GE.

    If May's Deal does not go through, Corbyn might not win if he does not back EUref2 as much of his support could then switch to the LDs rather than face No Deal or Corbyn's May Deal+ which the EU might not agree anyway
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,191
    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    Sean_F said:

    From the frontline of this insanity:

    https://twitter.com/batanball/status/1076230038251622400

    The Tories are going to reap a whirlwind for doing this to Britain.

    That's just projection. Lot's of people support Brexit, and support the Conservatives accordingly,
    And when the supermarket doesn't have x,y,z because of Brexit the Conservatives will collect all the blame.

    The only reason it isn't obvious now is because Labour is so bad....
    There are a couple of generations of UK citizens who have grown up in a world of almost endless choice, and ready supply of goods, food and services. You have to be at least, what 50-odd, to even remember the three day week or 70s power cuts etc, never mind war rationing.

    Given the state people get into when say KFC can't deliver, or there is a rail strike, then there will be almighty hell if any of the No Deal warnings turn out to be true.
    Ooh do KFC do deliveries now ? Didn't realise that. Not that there is one near me anyway !
    They did it briefly, then they chickened out due to logistical difficulties.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,986
    edited December 2018

    Some good news for the Conservatives (and the country) - home ownership levels among the 25-34 age group are rising:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46649565

    The Resolution Foundation says easier credit conditions and a slowdown in house price growth in recent years have helped first time buyers.

    Yet although home ownership amongst 25 to 34 year olds is 3% up on 2016 it is still half the level of the 1980s when half that age group owned a property with 34% of young families in the private rental sector compared to 9% in the 1980s
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,056
    ydoethur said:

    Corbyn is clueless.

    So Corbyn won't be an answer to the crossword puzzle then?
    The clue is:

    (6)
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    MaxPB said:

    I should add that i did have some customers who were uk based and traded in Holland under a .eu domain. That was their only domain and so they will undoubtedly be affected

    Can they not do what Robert suggested, open an Estonian subsidiary for peanuts and keep the website registered under that subsidiary?
    I am sure they can. But it is added admin and added costs that they do not have to face today. There is no advantage conferred by Brexit - quite the opposite. One of the Brexit promises was reduced admin.... :)

    I know is only small, but think of a burger bun with 100 sesame seeds on top. The company realises that it can save 5% by using 95 seeds per bun and does so. No one complains, so it takes another 5% off. No one complains, so it takes another 5% off.... all small changes with no apparent effect except at some point someone notices the seeds have thinned out. Do it 20 times and there are no seeds.

    Make enough small, innocuous changes and cumulatively they can have an effect.
    Actually, if you take 5% off each time then after 20 times you will have about 35 seeds left (I’m ignoring the fact that seeds are not a continuous variable, which in practice would reduce it a bit, but it would still be more than zero). You are correct if you remove five seeds each time, but after the first round that would be is an increasing percentage of what’s left and so increasingly likely to be noticed.
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited December 2018

    MaxPB said:

    I should add that i did have some customers who were uk based and traded in Holland under a .eu domain. That was their only domain and so they will undoubtedly be affected

    Can they not do what Robert suggested, open an Estonian subsidiary for peanuts and keep the website registered under that subsidiary?
    I am sure they can. But it is added admin and added costs that they do not have to face today. There is no advantage conferred by Brexit - quite the opposite. One of the Brexit promises was reduced admin.... :)

    I know is only small, but think of a burger bun with 100 sesame seeds on top. The company realises that it can save 5% by using 95 seeds per bun and does so. No one complains, so it takes another 5% off. No one complains, so it takes another 5% off.... all small changes with no apparent effect except at some point someone notices the seeds have thinned out. Do it 20 times and there are no seeds.

    Make enough small, innocuous changes and cumulatively they can have an effect.
    Actually, if you take 5% off each time then after 20 times you will have about 35 seeds left (I’m ignoring the fact that seeds are not a continuous variable, which in practice would reduce it a bit, but it would still be more than zero). You are correct if you remove five seeds each time, but after the first round that would be is an increasing percentage of what’s left and so increasingly likely to be noticed.
    I wondered how long it would be until someone took the whole thing to extremes and totally miss the point.

    (It took about 10 minutes)
  • Options
    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    Sean_F said:

    From the frontline of this insanity:

    https://twitter.com/batanball/status/1076230038251622400

    The Tories are going to reap a whirlwind for doing this to Britain.

    That's just projection. Lot's of people support Brexit, and support the Conservatives accordingly,
    And when the supermarket doesn't have x,y,z because of Brexit the Conservatives will collect all the blame.

    The only reason it isn't obvious now is because Labour is so bad....
    There are a couple of generations of UK citizens who have grown up in a world of almost endless choice, and ready supply of goods, food and services. You have to be at least, what 50-odd, to even remember the three day week or 70s power cuts etc, never mind war rationing.

    Given the state people get into when say KFC can't deliver, or there is a rail strike, then there will be almighty hell if any of the No Deal warnings turn out to be true.
    Ooh do KFC do deliveries now ? Didn't realise that. Not that there is one near me anyway !

    They don’t, but Deliveroo do: I discovered this while recuperating from an op and it did not help my speedy recovery.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,986
    edited December 2018
    George Osborne says the Tory Party faces a 'prolonged period' in opposition "unless it engages with modern Britain and adopts the essentially socially-liberal, pro-business, internationalist approach which I think is the right one for the country".

    He also says a No Deal Brexit would be 'reckless' and believes another general election or referendum could take place within a year in which he would urge people to reject the Brexit decision
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46655969
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    Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,060
    edited December 2018
    Re the services are not real, only manufacturing is attitude: if @ydoethur is still around he might be able to back me up that a similar attitude existed two centuries ago, but with agriculture as “real” and manufacturing as not.

    Or he may tell me I’ve got it all wrong of course...
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    MaxPB said:

    I should add that i did have some customers who were uk based and traded in Holland under a .eu domain. That was their only domain and so they will undoubtedly be affected

    Can they not do what Robert suggested, open an Estonian subsidiary for peanuts and keep the website registered under that subsidiary?
    I am sure they can. But it is added admin and added costs that they do not have to face today. There is no advantage conferred by Brexit - quite the opposite. One of the Brexit promises was reduced admin.... :)

    I know is only small, but think of a burger bun with 100 sesame seeds on top. The company realises that it can save 5% by using 95 seeds per bun and does so. No one complains, so it takes another 5% off. No one complains, so it takes another 5% off.... all small changes with no apparent effect except at some point someone notices the seeds have thinned out. Do it 20 times and there are no seeds.

    Make enough small, innocuous changes and cumulatively they can have an effect.
    Actually, if you take 5% off each time then after 20 times you will have about 35 seeds left (I’m ignoring the fact that seeds are not a continuous variable, which in practice would reduce it a bit, but it would still be more than zero). You are correct if you remove five seeds each time, but after the first round that would be is an increasing percentage of what’s left and so increasingly likely to be noticed.
    I wondered how long it would be until someone took the whole thing to extremes and totally miss the point.

    (It took about 10 minutes)
    I’m a Physics Teacher: it’s what we do.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,191
    edited December 2018

    Re the services are not real, only manufacturing is attitude: if @ydoethur is still around he might be able to back me up that a similar attitude existed two centuries ago, but with agriculture as “real” and manufacturing as not.

    Or he may tell me I’ve got it all wrong of course...

    Yes, and that persisted well into the nineteenth century.

    Oh btw NEW THREAD
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    notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006
    HYUFD said:

    George Osborne says the Tory Party faces a 'prolonged period' in opposition "unless it engages with modern Britain and adopts the essentially socially-liberal, pro-business, internationalist approach which I think is the right one for the country".

    He also says a No Deal Brexit would be 'reckless' and believes another general election or referendum could take place within a year in which he would urge people to reject the Brexit decision
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46655969


    I’ll translate that “if you are not comfortable with the rest of the uk looking like London you’re not welcome”
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    MJWMJW Posts: 1,347
    Disagree with this. Corbyn would actually secretly wouldn't be unhappy with a No Deal Brexit as it would likely collapse the government and provide a Year Zero for his declarative socialism. By contrast There are two things that are often missed about Corbyn's politics despite being in plain sight. The first is that he doesn't believe in the norms that all previous Labour leaders (inc. Michael Foot) did. It's most often noted on foreign policy but is also true domestically. When people do attack him for this it's more often to express fears about the hard left's authoritarianism, but it's probably more important that he's just not prepared to do much to preserve an economic system he hated even when it was delivering prosperity that funded things Labour likes. No deal may terrify those worried about their jobs and centre/soft left MPs but why would it Corbyn? A Tory no deal would be the opportunity of a lifetime for him. Secondly, where he differs from the old hard left is that he's a declarative socialist rather than a Bennite one - there's little grand theory beyond the idea that a socialist government can solve any ill put in front of it by declaring it will be solved. Therefore, Brexit outcomes that (rightly) terrify ordinary Labour MPs and members hold far less fear for Corbyn. After all, if the economic damage can be quickly reversed by a socialist government's willingness to throw money at state aid and huge social spending, then it's far less scary and something you'd countenance for political gain.

    Now, there's a gambit there, in that it relies on him not getting the blame and being deserted by pro-European left-wingers. But it's not unreasonable given that No Deal would tear the Tories apart, the chaos would require us to elect someone, and so far, despite mass provocation, the centre-left has been unwilling and unable to say 'Enough is enough' and put forward effective opposition - either internally or externally. If past trends repeat themselves remain Labour will get angry and then hold their nose.

    Compare that to May's deal passing - which would be a big political win for her, temporarily park the issue in a way that would provide the Tories an opportunity (one they're unlikely to take, but still) to regroup, preserve an economic system Corbyn doesn't much like anyway as well as giving the Tories the chance to firm up support with retail offers.

    I mean, who knows what Corbyn actually wants (I don't think he knows himself) but if there's an incidental outcome he doesn't enact himself, I'd say it's No Deal rather than the Tory one.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,263
    MJW said:

    Disagree with this. Corbyn would actually secretly wouldn't be unhappy with a No Deal Brexit as it would likely collapse the government and provide a Year Zero for his declarative socialism. By contrast There are two things that are often missed about Corbyn's politics despite being in plain sight. The first is that he doesn't believe in the norms that all previous Labour leaders (inc. Michael Foot) did. It's most often noted on foreign policy but is also true domestically. When people do attack him for this it's more often to express fears about the hard left's authoritarianism, but it's probably more important that he's just not prepared to do much to preserve an economic system he hated even when it was delivering prosperity that funded things Labour likes. No deal may terrify those worried about their jobs and centre/soft left MPs but why would it Corbyn? A Tory no deal would be the opportunity of a lifetime for him. Secondly, where he differs from the old hard left is that he's a terrify ordinary Labour MPs and members hold far less fear for Corbyn. After all, if the economic damage can be quickly reversed by a socialist government's willingness to throw money at state aid and huge social spending, then it's far less scary and something you'd countenance for political gain.

    Now, there's a gambit there, in that it relies on him not getting the blame and being deserted by pro-European left-wingers. But it's not unreasonable given that No Deal would tear the Tories apart, the chaos would require us to elect someone, and so far, despite mass provocation, the centre-left has been unwilling and unable to say 'Enough is enough' and put forward effective opposition - either internally or externally. If past trends repeat themselves remain Labour will get angry and then hold their nose.

    Compare that to May's deal passing - which would be a big political win for her, temporarily park the issue in a way that would provide the Tories an opportunity (one they're unlikely to take, but still) to regroup, preserve an economic system Corbyn doesn't much like anyway as well as giving the Tories the chance to firm up support with retail offers.

    I mean, who knows what Corbyn actually wants (I don't think he knows himself) but if there's an incidental outcome he doesn't enact himself, I'd say it's No Deal rather than the Tory one.

    It's interesting how often we see people here commenting at length on Corbyn's economic views. Yet how much has Corbyn ever said, or written, about economic theory? Indeed is he even that interested in domestic economic affairs, having spent most of his life championing matters of foreign affairs?

    In reality I suspect McDonnell - who is a Marxist - will be driving their economy policy.
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