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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This surely hits the nail on the head – Corbyn would prefer TM

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited December 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This surely hits the nail on the head – Corbyn would prefer TMay’s deal to go through than risk another referendum

I’ve never been more convinced that Corbyn privately wants May’s deal to pass – perhaps even with the unauthorised support of some of his own MPs.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 1,445
    edited December 2018
    First like the second referendum?
    HYUFD said:

    George Osborne says the Tories face a 'prolonged period' in opposition "unless it engages with modern Britain and adopts the essentially socially-liberal, pro-business, internationalist approach which I think is the right one for the country".

    He also says a No Deal Brexit decision would be 'reckless' and believes another general election or referendum could take place within a year in which he would urge people to reject the Brexit decision
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46655969

    If people want that why not vote Lib Dem - they are already offering that. Seems a populist approach got the Tories a 6 per cent higher vote share in 2017 than in 2015 - so it might well work short term if voters drift from Corbyn over Brexit to the LDs and Greens. What the Tories need is a divided opposition and luck - cos that is the reason they won a majority in 2015 with fewer votes than 2017 when they lost their majority.

    Good article above - if any one hasn't worked out by now that Corbyn wants us to leave the EU they haven't been paying attention for the last 30 years!

    Bar a permanent customs union or a de facto permanent CU via the backstop is there that much difference between his deal and hers?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,305
    edited December 2018
    I agree, in reality the only difference between Corbyn's Brexit plan and May's Deal is he wants to make the Customs Union permanent rather than temporary, in practice Corbyn and May are far closer to each other on Brexit than they are to EUref2 Remainers in their party like Soubry and Umunna or No Dealers like Rees-Mogg and Hoey
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,305
    edited December 2018
    brendan16 said:

    First like the second referendum?


    HYUFD said:

    George Osborne says the Tories face a 'prolonged period' in opposition "unless it engages with modern Britain and adopts the essentially socially-liberal, pro-business, internationalist approach which I think is the right one for the country".

    He also says a No Deal Brexit decision would be 'reckless' and believes another general election or referendum could take place within a year in which he would urge people to reject the Brexit decision
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46655969

    If people want that why not vote Lib Dem - they are already offering that. Seems a populist got the Tories 6 per cent more votes in 2017 and 2015 - so it might well work short term if voters drift from Corbyn over Brexit to the LDs and Greens. What the Tories need is a divided opposition and luck - cos that is the reason they won a majority in 2015 with fewer votes than 2017.

    Good article - if any one hasn't worked out by now that Corbyn wants us to leave the EU they haven't been paying attention for the last 30 years!

    Bar a permanent customs union or a de facto permanent CU via the backstop is there that much difference between his deal and hers?
    Osborne also ignores the fact UKIP got 12% in 2015 which took much of the socially conservative anti immigration, anti EU vote and how the Tories were helped by the left being more divided with the Greens and the LDs and the SNP getting a higher voteshare in 2015 than in 2017
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 24,147
    HYUFD said:

    I agree, in reality the only difference between Corbyn's Brexit plan and May's Deal is he wants to make the Customs Union permanent rather than temporary, in practice Corbyn and May are far closer to each other on Brexit than they are to EUref2 Remainers in their party like Soubry and Umunna or No Dealers like Rees-Mogg and Hoey

    That's not the only difference. Corbyn wants an impossible form of Lexit and his idea of a customs union isn't negotiable with the EU.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 981
    edited December 2018
    This reads like wishful thinking to me. Corbyn wants power and the only way he can get it is to block May’s deal and then bring her down by forcing a VONC. The Tories are left facing a GE for which they are totally unprepared having failed to deliver Brexit, having abandoned domestic policy and with the same lame duck leader who lost a 20% lead in the polls in a snap GE she called and lost her majority as a result.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 37,914
    edited December 2018
    Well of course it would be easier for him if the deal passes, so long as most Labour MPs vote against. That's the problem - it is so unpopular that to pass it either needs active Labour support or mass abstentions at least, which prevents the ability to present as being opposed to the deal. That risks a big reaction since they cannot act like they had no way of stopping the evil Tories.

    If the DUP can somehow be persuaded not to oppose it then I can see several dozen Tories doing the same, and then it becomes easier for Corbyn as they can 'let' a few Labour moderates see the vote pass over however many Tory opposers there still would be. I am curious, for instance, if the JoJo's of the party will push their remain agenda all the way.
  • This reads like wishful thinking to me. Corbyn wants power and the only way he can get it is to block May’s deal and then bring her down by forcing a VONC. The Tories are left facing a GE for which they are totally unprepared having failed to deliver Brexit, having abandoned domestic policy and with the same lame duck leader who lost a 20% lead in the polls in a snap GE she called and lost her majority as a result.

    While LAB is still in third place in Scotland it has very little chance of winning power.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 37,914

    This reads like wishful thinking to me. Corbyn wants power and the only way he can get it is to block May’s deal and then bring her down by forcing a VONC. The Tories are left facing a GE for which they are totally unprepared having failed to deliver Brexit, having abandoned domestic policy and with the same lame duck leader who lost a 20% lead in the polls in a snap GE she called and lost her majority as a result.

    If the deal passes Labour could still get their GE, indeed it might be more likely given the DUP. But I do think this is still just wishful thinking - I can believe Corbyn does want Brexit, or at least is much more worried about the complications that might arise from not Brexiting, but in the same way May has been constrained by her party divisions (made worse by her ineptitude), Corbyn is pretty boxed in by his party and, crucially, members.

    He cannot vote for the deal. He cannot even be seen to help the deal pass. It fractures the illusion he and the party have been presenting. Yes that has to happen eventually, but when looking at how that will happen which one makes it most likely he will please the members and become PM?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 15,259

    This reads like wishful thinking to me. Corbyn wants power and the only way he can get it is to block May’s deal and then bring her down by forcing a VONC. The Tories are left facing a GE for which they are totally unprepared having failed to deliver Brexit, having abandoned domestic policy and with the same lame duck leader who lost a 20% lead in the polls in a snap GE she called and lost her majority as a result.

    While LAB is still in third place in Scotland it has very little chance of winning power.without the support of the SNP
    I hope you'll forgive me for that slight modification...
  • It would be the biggest comeback since Lazarus. But before MPs are going to retract their opposition, the deal will need to become more popular. There’s no sign of that and no one is really trying to change that.

    Any recantation will first come from Leave MPs. They very unwisely expressed themselves in extreme terms. Such a retraction would be extremely humiliating and probably career-ending. But until Leavers backtrack, Remainer MPs will hide behind them seeing this as a route to a fresh referendum.

    The deal looks dead as a doornail to me, whatever the party leaders’ public or private wishes.
  • ydoethur said:

    This reads like wishful thinking to me. Corbyn wants power and the only way he can get it is to block May’s deal and then bring her down by forcing a VONC. The Tories are left facing a GE for which they are totally unprepared having failed to deliver Brexit, having abandoned domestic policy and with the same lame duck leader who lost a 20% lead in the polls in a snap GE she called and lost her majority as a result.

    While LAB is still in third place in Scotland it has very little chance of winning power.without the support of the SNP
    I hope you'll forgive me for that slight modification...
    Would the price of that be Scottish Independence? Not that Corbyn would object to that, but it would make getting a majority in what was left of the Commons even harder for Labour.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 9,287

    This reads like wishful thinking to me. Corbyn wants power and the only way he can get it is to block May’s deal and then bring her down by forcing a VONC. The Tories are left facing a GE for which they are totally unprepared having failed to deliver Brexit, having abandoned domestic policy and with the same lame duck leader who lost a 20% lead in the polls in a snap GE she called and lost her majority as a result.

    While LAB is still in third place in Scotland it has very little chance of winning power.
    But what might well be true is that Corbyn is entirely willing to risk a No Deal Brexit, let alone see May’s deal go through. Whether or not that would in reality increase his chances of being PM isn’t really the point.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 37,914
    edited December 2018

    It would be the biggest comeback since Lazarus. But before MPs are going to retract their opposition, the deal will need to become more popular. There’s no sign of that and no one is really trying to change that.

    Any recantation will first come from Leave MPs. They very unwisely expressed themselves in extreme terms. Such a retraction would be extremely humiliating and probably career-ending. But until Leavers backtrack, Remainer MPs will hide behind them seeing this as a route to a fresh referendum.

    The deal looks dead as a doornail to me, whatever the party leaders’ public or private wishes.

    I think this really hits the nail on the head. There is no groundswell of support for the deal to pressurize MPs, at best it is seen as least worst in specific head to head match ups. So those who have used apocalyptic language to describe the deal, and who either believe or profess to believe the no deal will not be that bad, do not have much to force them change their minds.

    Corbyn might well privately be happier to see it pass. But he cannot make that happen because overt support is impossible.

    I wish it would pass, I wish these predictions of abstentions and people changing their minds would be true. But I cannot see it.

    Edit: Also, what happened to Lazarus after his comeback?
  • This reads like wishful thinking to me. Corbyn wants power and the only way he can get it is to block May’s deal and then bring her down by forcing a VONC. The Tories are left facing a GE for which they are totally unprepared having failed to deliver Brexit, having abandoned domestic policy and with the same lame duck leader who lost a 20% lead in the polls in a snap GE she called and lost her majority as a result.

    While LAB is still in third place in Scotland it has very little chance of winning power.
    Probably, but difficult to see the Tories retaining 13 seats in Remain supporting Scotland after the botch job they’ve made of Brexit and if Labour take Tory seats in England, as they did last time, Labour will be better placed to form either a minority Gov, or rely on SNP support in a confidence and supply arrangement if they stop May’s deal and she loses her VONC.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 9,287
    brendan16 said:

    First like the second referendum?


    HYUFD said:

    George Osborne says the Tories face a 'prolonged period' in opposition "unless it engages with modern Britain and adopts the essentially socially-liberal, pro-business, internationalist approach which I think is the right one for the country".

    He also says a No Deal Brexit decision would be 'reckless' and believes another general election or referendum could take place within a year in which he would urge people to reject the Brexit decision
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46655969

    If people want that why not vote Lib Dem - they are already offering that. Seems a populist approach got the Tories a 6 per cent higher vote share in 2017 than in 2015 - so it might well work short term if voters drift from Corbyn over Brexit to the LDs and Greens. What the Tories need is a divided opposition and luck - cos that is the reason they won a majority in 2015 with fewer votes than 2017 when they lost their majority.

    Good article above - if any one hasn't worked out by now that Corbyn wants us to leave the EU they haven't been paying attention for the last 30 years!

    Bar a permanent customs union or a de facto permanent CU via the backstop is there that much difference between his deal and hers?
    The percentage of the electorate who have been paying attention to Corbyn for the last 30 years must be vanishingly small. The idea that he is in favour of Brexit is only just now becoming a matter of widespread consensus.

  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 1,124
    Crude calculator for anyone wanting to run the numbers:
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2018/nov/15/can-you-get-mays-brexit-deal-through-parliament

    If you take the default and shift both Labour frontbench and wavering (Tory) brexiteers to abstain, you have a 198-196.
  • kle4 said:

    This reads like wishful thinking to me. Corbyn wants power and the only way he can get it is to block May’s deal and then bring her down by forcing a VONC. The Tories are left facing a GE for which they are totally unprepared having failed to deliver Brexit, having abandoned domestic policy and with the same lame duck leader who lost a 20% lead in the polls in a snap GE she called and lost her majority as a result.

    If the deal passes Labour could still get their GE, indeed it might be more likely given the DUP. But I do think this is still just wishful thinking - I can believe Corbyn does want Brexit, or at least is much more worried about the complications that might arise from not Brexiting, but in the same way May has been constrained by her party divisions (made worse by her ineptitude), Corbyn is pretty boxed in by his party and, crucially, members.

    He cannot vote for the deal. He cannot even be seen to help the deal pass. It fractures the illusion he and the party have been presenting. Yes that has to happen eventually, but when looking at how that will happen which one makes it most likely he will please the members and become PM?
    I am not convinced Corbyn cares that much about Brexit or no Brexit given his incoherent and ambivalent approach to it. What he cares about is domestic policy and reversing all of Thatchers reforms. It’s only EU restrictions on state aid that would seriously inconvenience him and he’d probably ignore those or try and work round them.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,305
    edited December 2018

    This reads like wishful thinking to me. Corbyn wants power and the only way he can get it is to block May’s deal and then bring her down by forcing a VONC. The Tories are left facing a GE for which they are totally unprepared having failed to deliver Brexit, having abandoned domestic policy and with the same lame duck leader who lost a 20% lead in the polls in a snap GE she called and lost her majority as a result.

    While LAB is still in third place in Scotland it has very little chance of winning power.
    As a majority Labour government yes, Labour needs to win 64 seats for that, however Labour only needs to win 3 Tory seats to prevent them having a majority with the DUP and if Labour gains just 7 Tory seats Labour + SNP + LD + PC + Green + Hermon have more MPs combined than the Tories + DUP
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,305

    HYUFD said:

    I agree, in reality the only difference between Corbyn's Brexit plan and May's Deal is he wants to make the Customs Union permanent rather than temporary, in practice Corbyn and May are far closer to each other on Brexit than they are to EUref2 Remainers in their party like Soubry and Umunna or No Dealers like Rees-Mogg and Hoey

    That's not the only difference. Corbyn wants an impossible form of Lexit and his idea of a customs union isn't negotiable with the EU.
    Not necessarily, we would basically have a Turkey style relationship with the EU given Corbyn wants to stay in the Customs Union but still leave the Single Market
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,305

    ydoethur said:

    This reads like wishful thinking to me. Corbyn wants power and the only way he can get it is to block May’s deal and then bring her down by forcing a VONC. The Tories are left facing a GE for which they are totally unprepared having failed to deliver Brexit, having abandoned domestic policy and with the same lame duck leader who lost a 20% lead in the polls in a snap GE she called and lost her majority as a result.

    While LAB is still in third place in Scotland it has very little chance of winning power.without the support of the SNP
    I hope you'll forgive me for that slight modification...
    Would the price of that be Scottish Independence? Not that Corbyn would object to that, but it would make getting a majority in what was left of the Commons even harder for Labour.
    Unlikely as Scottish polls show the only way Yes gets over 50% in any indyref2 is with No Deal which a Corbyn + SNP pact would avoid
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 24,147
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I agree, in reality the only difference between Corbyn's Brexit plan and May's Deal is he wants to make the Customs Union permanent rather than temporary, in practice Corbyn and May are far closer to each other on Brexit than they are to EUref2 Remainers in their party like Soubry and Umunna or No Dealers like Rees-Mogg and Hoey

    That's not the only difference. Corbyn wants an impossible form of Lexit and his idea of a customs union isn't negotiable with the EU.
    Not necessarily, we would basically have a Turkey style relationship with the EU given Corbyn wants to stay in the Customs Union but still leave the Single Market
    Labour are not proposing a Turkey-style customs union, but a version of Mersocur between the UK and EU. It's just not on the table.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 12,973
    A middle aged couple from Crawley; who'd have thought?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 37,914

    kle4 said:

    This reads like wishful thinking to me. Corbyn wants power and the only way he can get it is to block May’s deal and then bring her down by forcing a VONC. The Tories are left facing a GE for which they are totally unprepared having failed to deliver Brexit, having abandoned domestic policy and with the same lame duck leader who lost a 20% lead in the polls in a snap GE she called and lost her majority as a result.

    If the deal passes Labour could still get their GE, indeed it might be more likely given the DUP. But I do think this is still just wishful thinking - I can believe Corbyn does want Brexit, or at least is much more worried about the complications that might arise from not Brexiting, but in the same way May has been constrained by her party divisions (made worse by her ineptitude), Corbyn is pretty boxed in by his party and, crucially, members.

    He cannot vote for the deal. He cannot even be seen to help the deal pass. It fractures the illusion he and the party have been presenting. Yes that has to happen eventually, but when looking at how that will happen which one makes it most likely he will please the members and become PM?
    I am not convinced Corbyn cares that much about Brexit or no Brexit given his incoherent and ambivalent approach to it. What he cares about is domestic policy and reversing all of Thatchers reforms. It’s only EU restrictions on state aid that would seriously inconvenience him and he’d probably ignore those or try and work round them.
    I can believe he'd prefer us to leave, but he as you say he has things he cares much more about, and he has been leader long enough now that he will not give up the chance to become PM through the government taking the hit for no deal to get Brexit.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 37,914
    edited December 2018
    Andrew said:

    Crude calculator for anyone wanting to run the numbers:
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2018/nov/15/can-you-get-mays-brexit-deal-through-parliament

    If you take the default and shift both Labour frontbench and wavering (Tory) brexiteers to abstain, you have a 198-196.

    A recipe for harmony.

    My most optimistic scenario there has a majority against of 37. And that's leaving the rather unrealistic Labour numbers!
  • Of course.

    And his only chance of bringing the government down is for May's deal to pass
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 6,572
    Nigelb said:

    This reads like wishful thinking to me. Corbyn wants power and the only way he can get it is to block May’s deal and then bring her down by forcing a VONC. The Tories are left facing a GE for which they are totally unprepared having failed to deliver Brexit, having abandoned domestic policy and with the same lame duck leader who lost a 20% lead in the polls in a snap GE she called and lost her majority as a result.

    While LAB is still in third place in Scotland it has very little chance of winning power.
    But what might well be true is that Corbyn is entirely willing to risk a No Deal Brexit, let alone see May’s deal go through. Whether or not that would in reality increase his chances of being PM isn’t really the point.
    I think he sees a no deal brexit as something to be exploited rather than feared..

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,305
    edited December 2018

    Of course.

    And his only chance of bringing the government down is for May's deal to pass

    Or if No Deal and enough Tory Remainers like Boles, Soubry and Wollaston VONC the government
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 24,147

    Of course.

    And his only chance of bringing the government down is for May's deal to pass

    An election shortly after Labour help get the deal through would not turn out well for them.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,305

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I agree, in reality the only difference between Corbyn's Brexit plan and May's Deal is he wants to make the Customs Union permanent rather than temporary, in practice Corbyn and May are far closer to each other on Brexit than they are to EUref2 Remainers in their party like Soubry and Umunna or No Dealers like Rees-Mogg and Hoey

    That's not the only difference. Corbyn wants an impossible form of Lexit and his idea of a customs union isn't negotiable with the EU.
    Not necessarily, we would basically have a Turkey style relationship with the EU given Corbyn wants to stay in the Customs Union but still leave the Single Market
    Labour are not proposing a Turkey-style customs union, but a version of Mersocur between the UK and EU. It's just not on the table.
    The closest relationship between a European state and the EU Labour's plan resembles is that between Turkey and the EU but it is not exact and is largely a Corbynite fantasy to try and hide the fact his Brexit plan is in reality little different from May's
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 37,914
    Floater said:

    Nigelb said:

    This reads like wishful thinking to me. Corbyn wants power and the only way he can get it is to block May’s deal and then bring her down by forcing a VONC. The Tories are left facing a GE for which they are totally unprepared having failed to deliver Brexit, having abandoned domestic policy and with the same lame duck leader who lost a 20% lead in the polls in a snap GE she called and lost her majority as a result.

    While LAB is still in third place in Scotland it has very little chance of winning power.
    But what might well be true is that Corbyn is entirely willing to risk a No Deal Brexit, let alone see May’s deal go through. Whether or not that would in reality increase his chances of being PM isn’t really the point.
    I think he sees a no deal brexit as something to be exploited rather than feared..

    He and most MPs see it the same way, given how keen they were to risk it even before the A50 case. The only one who really seems to fear no deal Brexit is May, and she has sought to exploit it herself.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 37,914

    Of course.

    And his only chance of bringing the government down is for May's deal to pass

    An election shortly after Labour help get the deal through would not turn out well for them.
    No. If anything will lose them the tranches of Remain votes they have held onto it would be that. If it could pass with Labour rebels with Corbyn officially against? Perfect.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 24,147
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I agree, in reality the only difference between Corbyn's Brexit plan and May's Deal is he wants to make the Customs Union permanent rather than temporary, in practice Corbyn and May are far closer to each other on Brexit than they are to EUref2 Remainers in their party like Soubry and Umunna or No Dealers like Rees-Mogg and Hoey

    That's not the only difference. Corbyn wants an impossible form of Lexit and his idea of a customs union isn't negotiable with the EU.
    Not necessarily, we would basically have a Turkey style relationship with the EU given Corbyn wants to stay in the Customs Union but still leave the Single Market
    Labour are not proposing a Turkey-style customs union, but a version of Mersocur between the UK and EU. It's just not on the table.
    The closest relationship between a European state and the EU Labour's plan resembles is that between Turkey and the EU but it is not exact and is largely a Corbynite fantasy to try and hide the fact his Brexit plan is in reality little different from May's
    It's a Corbynite fantasy to try and hide the fact that his Brexit plan is a left-wing version of the ERG's.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 12,631
    I suspect Jezza would prefer "No Deal" first and then Theresa May's deal.

    Jezza was for Leave even before Farage remember...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 6,589
    kle4 said:

    Floater said:

    Nigelb said:

    This reads like wishful thinking to me. Corbyn wants power and the only way he can get it is to block May’s deal and then bring her down by forcing a VONC. The Tories are left facing a GE for which they are totally unprepared having failed to deliver Brexit, having abandoned domestic policy and with the same lame duck leader who lost a 20% lead in the polls in a snap GE she called and lost her majority as a result.

    While LAB is still in third place in Scotland it has very little chance of winning power.
    But what might well be true is that Corbyn is entirely willing to risk a No Deal Brexit, let alone see May’s deal go through. Whether or not that would in reality increase his chances of being PM isn’t really the point.
    I think he sees a no deal brexit as something to be exploited rather than feared..

    He and most MPs see it the same way, given how keen they were to risk it even before the A50 case. The only one who really seems to fear no deal Brexit is May, and she has sought to exploit it herself.
    Most MPs see No Deal Brexit as something to be exploited? I don't think so. 50-100 on the extreme right and <50 on the extreme left maybe, but not the rest.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 6,572
    GIN1138 said:

    I suspect Jezza would prefer "No Deal" first and then Theresa May's deal.

    Jezza was for Leave even before Farage remember...

    That is my view too.
  • The loss of wall to wall brexit as we move to Christmas and the New Year is a joyous relief for most of the population including our household

    I expect some polls over this period will see a rising clamour for a referendum but as far as I am concerned I am going to enjoy this festive time with my family and grandchildren and almost certainly will post less

    It does not mean I will not be more involved from January, and, as we move rapidly to the meaningful vote positions will become more transparent especially as the votes are declared and mps are unable to hide

    I would like to wish everyone the happiest of Christmases and a prosperous New Year no matter the politics

    And may we as a Country become more tolerant and understanding. We all hold strong views and fight our corner but we should also keep an open mind to persuasive arguments
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,305

    ydoethur said:

    This reads like wishful thinking to me. Corbyn wants power and the only way he can get it is to block May’s deal and then bring her down by forcing a VONC. The Tories are left facing a GE for which they are totally unprepared having failed to deliver Brexit, having abandoned domestic policy and with the same lame duck leader who lost a 20% lead in the polls in a snap GE she called and lost her majority as a result.

    While LAB is still in third place in Scotland it has very little chance of winning power.without the support of the SNP
    I hope you'll forgive me for that slight modification...
    Would the price of that be Scottish Independence? Not that Corbyn would object to that, but it would make getting a majority in what was left of the Commons even harder for Labour.
    If Scotland were to become independent it would actually be slightly easier for Labour to get a majority. Labour need to win 64 seats to win a UK majority, 40 seats to win a majority in England and 32 to win a majority in England and Wales.

    However if Scotland stays in the UK it would be easier for Labour and the SNP to overtake the Tories than for Labour alone to overtake the Tories in England
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 37,914

    kle4 said:

    Floater said:

    Nigelb said:

    This reads like wishful thinking to me. Corbyn wants power and the only way he can get it is to block May’s deal and then bring her down by forcing a VONC. The Tories are left facing a GE for which they are totally unprepared having failed to deliver Brexit, having abandoned domestic policy and with the same lame duck leader who lost a 20% lead in the polls in a snap GE she called and lost her majority as a result.

    While LAB is still in third place in Scotland it has very little chance of winning power.
    But what might well be true is that Corbyn is entirely willing to risk a No Deal Brexit, let alone see May’s deal go through. Whether or not that would in reality increase his chances of being PM isn’t really the point.
    I think he sees a no deal brexit as something to be exploited rather than feared..

    He and most MPs see it the same way, given how keen they were to risk it even before the A50 case. The only one who really seems to fear no deal Brexit is May, and she has sought to exploit it herself.
    Most MPs see No Deal Brexit as something to be exploited? I don't think so. 50-100 on the extreme right and <50 on the extreme left maybe, but not the rest.</p>
    Yes, most of them. They have risked it in pursuit of their perfect versions of Brexit or Remain, and then cry crocodile tears about how horrendous no deal would be, how unacceptable it would be, when if they truly thought it unacceptable they would never have even triggered A50, back when it was unclear if it could be revoked.

    I do not believe their feeble noises that they truly fear or despise no deal. They do not want it, but that is not the same thing. They want remain/new deal/etc more than they fear no deal, but still try to use fear of no deal ro push for why we need a new vote, or a new government.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,305
    GIN1138 said:

    I suspect Jezza would prefer "No Deal" first and then Theresa May's deal.

    Jezza was for Leave even before Farage remember...

    If Jezza allowed moves towards No Deal without EUref2 though that would not last long without rapid moves of Labour Remainers to the LDs, hence his policy is basically May's Deal +
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 6,589

    The loss of wall to wall brexit as we move to Christmas and the New Year is a joyous relief for most of the population including our household

    I expect some polls over this period will see a rising clamour for a referendum but as far as I am concerned I am going to enjoy this festive time with my family and grandchildren and almost certainly will post less

    It does not mean I will not be more involved from January, and, as we move rapidly to the meaningful vote positions will become more transparent especially as the votes are declared and mps are unable to hide

    I would like to wish everyone the happiest of Christmases and a prosperous New Year no matter the politics

    And may we as a Country become more tolerant and understanding. We all hold strong views and fight our corner but we should also keep an open mind to persuasive arguments

    Yes, and the same to you and your family Big_G! Sage advice. Have a good Christmas.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,305

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I agree, in reality the only difference between Corbyn's Brexit plan and May's Deal is he wants to make the Customs Union permanent rather than temporary, in practice Corbyn and May are far closer to each other on Brexit than they are to EUref2 Remainers in their party like Soubry and Umunna or No Dealers like Rees-Mogg and Hoey

    That's not the only difference. Corbyn wants an impossible form of Lexit and his idea of a customs union isn't negotiable with the EU.
    Not necessarily, we would basically have a Turkey style relationship with the EU given Corbyn wants to stay in the Customs Union but still leave the Single Market
    Labour are not proposing a Turkey-style customs union, but a version of Mersocur between the UK and EU. It's just not on the table.
    The closest relationship between a European state and the EU Labour's plan resembles is that between Turkey and the EU but it is not exact and is largely a Corbynite fantasy to try and hide the fact his Brexit plan is in reality little different from May's
    It's a Corbynite fantasy to try and hide the fact that his Brexit plan is a left-wing version of the ERG's.
    No, the ERG want the whole UK fully out of the EU, the Single Market and the Customs Union.

    Corbyn wants the UK to stay permanently in the Customs Union
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 3,234
    3-1 Palace. Well, well, well.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,114
    dixiedean said:

    3-1 Palace. Well, well, well.

    fat lady yet to sing...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 24,147
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I agree, in reality the only difference between Corbyn's Brexit plan and May's Deal is he wants to make the Customs Union permanent rather than temporary, in practice Corbyn and May are far closer to each other on Brexit than they are to EUref2 Remainers in their party like Soubry and Umunna or No Dealers like Rees-Mogg and Hoey

    That's not the only difference. Corbyn wants an impossible form of Lexit and his idea of a customs union isn't negotiable with the EU.
    Not necessarily, we would basically have a Turkey style relationship with the EU given Corbyn wants to stay in the Customs Union but still leave the Single Market
    Labour are not proposing a Turkey-style customs union, but a version of Mersocur between the UK and EU. It's just not on the table.
    The closest relationship between a European state and the EU Labour's plan resembles is that between Turkey and the EU but it is not exact and is largely a Corbynite fantasy to try and hide the fact his Brexit plan is in reality little different from May's
    It's a Corbynite fantasy to try and hide the fact that his Brexit plan is a left-wing version of the ERG's.
    No, the ERG want the whole UK fully out of the EU, the Single Market and the Customs Union.

    Corbyn wants the UK to stay permanently in the Customs Union
    You're misrepresenting his policy to make it sound deliverable. He wants to create a new UK-EU customs union in which the UK has "a strong say" in trade policy and has exceptions on state aid rules.
  • The loss of wall to wall brexit as we move to Christmas and the New Year is a joyous relief for most of the population including our household

    I expect some polls over this period will see a rising clamour for a referendum but as far as I am concerned I am going to enjoy this festive time with my family and grandchildren and almost certainly will post less

    It does not mean I will not be more involved from January, and, as we move rapidly to the meaningful vote positions will become more transparent especially as the votes are declared and mps are unable to hide

    I would like to wish everyone the happiest of Christmases and a prosperous New Year no matter the politics

    And may we as a Country become more tolerant and understanding. We all hold strong views and fight our corner but we should also keep an open mind to persuasive arguments

    Yes, and the same to you and your family Big_G! Sage advice. Have a good Christmas.
    Thanks Ben and to you and your family
  • Good afternoon, everyone.
  • dixiedean said:

    3-1 Palace. Well, well, well.

    fat lady yet to sing...
    Let’s hope so. Don’t want Liverpool anywhere near the title by the end of the season.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,305
    edited December 2018

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I agree, in reality the only difference between Corbyn's Brexit plan and May's Deal is he wants to make the Customs Union permanent rather than temporary, in practice Corbyn and May are far closer to each other on Brexit than they are to EUref2 Remainers in their party like Soubry and Umunna or No Dealers like Rees-Mogg and Hoey

    That's not the only difference. Corbyn wants an impossible form of Lexit and his idea of a customs union isn't negotiable with the EU.
    Not necessarily, we would basically have a Turkey style relationship with the EU given Corbyn wants to stay in the Customs Union but still leave the Single Market
    Labour are not proposing a Turkey-style customs union, but a version of Mersocur between the UK and EU. It's just not on the table.
    The closest relationship between a European state and the EU Labour's plan resembles is that between Turkey and the EU but it is not exact and is largely a Corbynite fantasy to try and hide the fact his Brexit plan is in reality little different from May's
    It's a Corbynite fantasy to try and hide the fact that his Brexit plan is a left-wing version of the ERG's.
    No, the ERG want the whole UK fully out of the EU, the Single Market and the Customs Union.

    Corbyn wants the UK to stay permanently in the Customs Union
    You're misrepresenting his policy to make it sound deliverable. He wants to create a new UK-EU customs union in which the UK has "a strong say" in trade policy and has exceptions on state aid rules.
    Well obviously in reality he could not get exactly what he wants in any negotiation with the EU but his policy is still different to that of the ERG, Corbyn does not want to leave a Customs Union with the EU, the ERG do
  • ChrisChris Posts: 1,394
    Nick Tyrone on his blog suggested this could become a game of chicken with No Deal and Revocation as the only possible outcomes. I didn't think that was right, and commented that the idea of the game of chicken was a choice between No Deal and The Deal.

    Probably that's not quite right either. No Deal or The Deal is the choice May wants to present to Corbyn. But what's the choice Corbyn wants to present to May? I can see No Deal or Revocation would suit him nicely, but I don't believe any Prime Minister would revoke without a referendum to cover her/his back. So (assuming a general election isn't on offer), Corbyn would be presenting May with a choice of No Deal or asking for an extension so that she could hold a referendum. In other words, he would be trying to force her into doing something he doesn't seem particularly keen on himself.

    So I agree with Mike. Corbyn isn't likely to press that choice on May. It's likelier that he'll let the Deal pass, while naturally trying to do so in such a way that will maximise the political damage to the Tories.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 6,589

    dixiedean said:

    3-1 Palace. Well, well, well.

    fat lady yet to sing...
    Let’s hope so. Don’t want Liverpool anywhere near the title by the end of the season.
    We have at least one thing in common then! :wink:
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I agree, in reality the only difference between Corbyn's Brexit plan and May's Deal is he wants to make the Customs Union permanent rather than temporary, in practice Corbyn and May are far closer to each other on Brexit than they are to EUref2 Remainers in their party like Soubry and Umunna or No Dealers like Rees-Mogg and Hoey

    That's not the only difference. Corbyn wants an impossible form of Lexit and his idea of a customs union isn't negotiable with the EU.
    Not necessarily, we would basically have a Turkey style relationship with the EU given Corbyn wants to stay in the Customs Union but still leave the Single Market
    Labour are not proposing a Turkey-style customs union, but a version of Mersocur between the UK and EU. It's just not on the table.
    The closest relationship between a European state and the EU Labour's plan resembles is that between Turkey and the EU but it is not exact and is largely a Corbynite fantasy to try and hide the fact his Brexit plan is in reality little different from May's
    It's a Corbynite fantasy to try and hide the fact that his Brexit plan is a left-wing version of the ERG's.
    No, the ERG want the whole UK fully out of the EU, the Single Market and the Customs Union.

    Corbyn wants the UK to stay permanently in the Customs Union
    Er, the ERG don’t want anything to do with Corbyn’s agenda to take Britain back to the 1970’s which is rather more important. The idea that Corbyn cares one way or the other about the Customs Union, except as a means to general election posturing is not credible.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,305

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I agree, in reality the only difference between Corbyn's Brexit plan and May's Deal is he wants to make the Customs Union permanent rather than temporary, in practice Corbyn and May are far closer to each other on Brexit than they are to EUref2 Remainers in their party like Soubry and Umunna or No Dealers like Rees-Mogg and Hoey

    That's not the only difference. Corbyn wants an impossible form of Lexit and his idea of a customs union isn't negotiable with the EU.
    Not necessarily, we would basically have a Turkey style relationship with the EU given Corbyn wants to stay in the Customs Union but still leave the Single Market
    Labour are not proposing a Turkey-style customs union, but a version of Mersocur between the UK and EU. It's just not on the table.
    The closest relationship between a European state and the EU Labour's plan resembles is that between Turkey and the EU but it is not exact and is largely a Corbynite fantasy to try and hide the fact his Brexit plan is in reality little different from May's
    It's a Corbynite fantasy to try and hide the fact that his Brexit plan is a left-wing version of the ERG's.
    No, the ERG want the whole UK fully out of the EU, the Single Market and the Customs Union.

    Corbyn wants the UK to stay permanently in the Customs Union
    Er, the ERG don’t want anything to do with Corbyn’s agenda to take Britain back to the 1970’s which is rather more important. The idea that Corbyn cares one way or the other about the Customs Union, except as a means to general election posturing is not credible.
    Well obviously but we were only looking at Brexit. Corbyn's and Labour's official policy is now to stay permanently in a Customs Union whatever Corbyn's private views are
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I agree, in reality the only difference between Corbyn's Brexit plan and May's Deal is he wants to make the Customs Union permanent rather than temporary, in practice Corbyn and May are far closer to each other on Brexit than they are to EUref2 Remainers in their party like Soubry and Umunna or No Dealers like Rees-Mogg and Hoey

    That's not the only difference. Corbyn wants an impossible form of Lexit and his idea of a customs union isn't negotiable with the EU.
    Not necessarily, we would basically have a Turkey style relationship with the EU given Corbyn wants to stay in the Customs Union but still leave the Single Market
    Labour are not proposing a Turkey-style customs union, but a version of Mersocur between the UK and EU. It's just not on the table.
    The closest relationship between a European state and the EU Labour's plan resembles is that between Turkey and the EU but it is not exact and is largely a Corbynite fantasy to try and hide the fact his Brexit plan is in reality little different from May's
    It's a Corbynite fantasy to try and hide the fact that his Brexit plan is a left-wing version of the ERG's.
    No, the ERG want the whole UK fully out of the EU, the Single Market and the Customs Union.

    Corbyn wants the UK to stay permanently in the Customs Union
    Er, the ERG don’t want anything to do with Corbyn’s agenda to take Britain back to the 1970’s which is rather more important. The idea that Corbyn cares one way or the other about the Customs Union, except as a means to general election posturing is not credible.
    Well obviously but we were only looking at Brexit. Corbyn's and Labour's official policy is now to stay permanently in a Customs Union whatever Corbyn's private views are
    Labour’s official policy changes regularly. They campaigned for Remain in the referendum and for Leave in the last election. The idea that Labour have a settled position is just not credible. Starmer wants to stay in the Customs Union but I find it hard to believe he would even make a Corbyn Cabinet.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,305
    edited December 2018

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I agree, in reality the only difference between Corbyn's Brexit plan and May's Deal is he wants to make the Customs Union permanent rather than temporary, in practice Corbyn and May are far closer to each other on Brexit than they are to EUref2 Remainers in their party like Soubry and Umunna or No Dealers like Rees-Mogg and Hoey

    That's not the only difference. Corbyn wants an impossible form of Lexit and his idea of a customs union isn't negotiable with the EU.
    Not necessarily, we would basically have a Turkey style relationship with the EU given Corbyn wants to stay in the Customs Union but still leave the Single Market
    Labour are not proposing a Turkey-style customs union, but a version of Mersocur between the UK and EU. It's just not on the table.
    The closest relationshiplan is in reality little different from May's
    It's a Corbynite fantasy to try and hide the fact that his Brexit plan is a left-wing version of the ERG's.
    No, the ERG want the whstay permanently in the Customs Union
    Er, the ERG don’t want anything to do with Corbyn’s agenda to take Britain back to the 1970’s which is rather more important. The idea that Corbyn cares one way or the other about the Customs Union, except as a means to general election posturing is not credible.
    Well obviously but we were only looking at Brexit. Corbyn's and Labour's official policy is now to stay permanently in a Customs Union whatever Corbyn's private views are
    Labour’s official policy changes regularly. They campaigned for Remain in the referendum and for Leave in the last election. The idea that Labour have a settled position is just not credible. Starmer wants to stay in the Customs Union but I find it hard to believe he would even make a Corbyn Cabinet.
    Labour did not campaign for Leave at the last election, they accepted that Leave won the referendum but still wanted to maintain the advantages of the Single Market and Customs Union. They now want to stay permanently in the Customs Union. Given the overwhelming majority of Labour members and voters were Remainers in 2016 and want EUref2 as do maybe a majority of Labour MPs now the only way Labour's position on Brexit will change going forward is if Labour takes a harder anti Brexit approach and either goes for full permanent SM + CU BINO or for EUref2
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 15,259
    Opens thread.

    Sees it's all about Brexit.

    Closes thread.

    Goodnight.
  • This looks potentially quite significant ...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 37,914
    edited December 2018

    This looks potentially quite significant ...

    So she backed him as leader and Labour at the last election, and presumably accepted Labour's official policy at conference which was to do what Corbyn still says he wants to do?

    I'm not sure how these remainer members are supposed to react if they cannot get remain. They have to back some kind of leave if they cannot get that.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 9,287
    ydoethur said:

    Opens thread.

    Sees it's all about Brexit.

    Closes thread.

    Goodnight.

    I hope you’re not abandoning us for the next couple of years... ?

  • kle4 said:

    This looks potentially quite significant ...

    So she backed him as leader and Labour at the last election, and presumably accepted Labour's official policy at conference which was to do what Corbyn still says he wants to do?

    I am more interested in the fact Lewis Tweeted it. My assumption has always been there is literally nothing Corbyn could do to alienate his support base. I might be wrong.

  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 5,936


    Er, the ERG don’t want anything to do with Corbyn’s agenda to take Britain back to the 1970’s

    Indeed - it would be far too modern for them....

    1770s is more their style
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 9,287
    More evidence that somewhere between a quarter and a third of the electorate are prepared to countenance any insanity:
    https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/422506-new-poll-public-overwhelmingly-opposes-trump-pardoning-close
  • This looks potentially quite significant ...

    Inevitable.

    This kind of thing may lead to genuine concerns about how the Lab manifesto will be drawn up in a snap GE.

    Last time iirc a single person wrote it (Andrew Murray??).
  • kle4 said:

    This looks potentially quite significant ...

    So she backed him as leader and Labour at the last election, and presumably accepted Labour's official policy at conference which was to do what Corbyn still says he wants to do?

    I'm not sure how these remainer members are supposed to react if they cannot get remain. They have to back some kind of leave if they cannot get that.
    They could join the peeling off of large % of Lab votes to LibDems that Kellner's last poll predicted?
  • Kieran is right, of course. I did a thread ion why the leadership's backing for Brexit is so electorally dangerous for Labour:
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 37,914

    kle4 said:

    This looks potentially quite significant ...

    So she backed him as leader and Labour at the last election, and presumably accepted Labour's official policy at conference which was to do what Corbyn still says he wants to do?

    I am more interested in the fact Lewis Tweeted it. My assumption has always been there is literally nothing Corbyn could do to alienate his support base. I might be wrong.

    Well if the members truly turn on Corbyn over this, it gives cover for MPs to start piping up. I cannot see Corbyn holding firm on this point forever. His MPs really might fight him again on it, and without the members does he take them on?

  • Er, the ERG don’t want anything to do with Corbyn’s agenda to take Britain back to the 1970’s

    Indeed - it would be far too modern for them....

    1770s is more their style
    Whatever Labour’s 2017 manifesto was, and many adjectives spring to mind, it was certainly not modern. I doubt JRM wants to revert to the days prior to Catholic Emmancipation.

    All told, your comment doesn’t have much (as in anything) going for it.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 35,302
    edited December 2018
    Nigelb said:

    More evidence that somewhere between a quarter and a third of the electorate are prepared to countenance any insanity:
    https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/422506-new-poll-public-overwhelmingly-opposes-trump-pardoning-close

    A third did vote for PR in 2011. :smiley:
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 671
    Yes, this is my view. The deal eventually passes with help from Labour. I have that as by far the most likely outcome. 2/1 shot on betfair, should be 4/6 IMO.

    I also think it's the correct outcome.

    For two years the UK government has been negotiating on a best efforts basis the terms under which we will leave the European Union, as mandated by the 2016 referendum and subsequently ratified in parliament by the vote to trigger article 50.

    The Withdrawal Treaty is the result of that process.

    As such, and regardless of subjective and inherently biased assessments such as ‘good’ or ‘bad’, it has earned the right to be the default, i.e. it is what should happen in the absence of anything better.

    So what are the realistic alternatives? There are two. (1) Leave the EU without a deal. (2) Cancel Brexit, either with or without another referendum. If one of these alternatives can command the support of parliament it ought to be implemented.

    Otherwise the default, the deal, should prevail.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 37,914

    kle4 said:

    This looks potentially quite significant ...

    So she backed him as leader and Labour at the last election, and presumably accepted Labour's official policy at conference which was to do what Corbyn still says he wants to do?

    I'm not sure how these remainer members are supposed to react if they cannot get remain. They have to back some kind of leave if they cannot get that.
    They could join the peeling off of large % of Lab votes to LibDems that Kellner's last poll predicted?
    Labour MPs splitting en masse? I'll believe that when I see it. I'd predict being Labour is so central to their identity that if they cannot get remain they would still stay in the party if it officially backs leave still.
  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    This looks potentially quite significant ...

    So she backed him as leader and Labour at the last election, and presumably accepted Labour's official policy at conference which was to do what Corbyn still says he wants to do?

    I am more interested in the fact Lewis Tweeted it. My assumption has always been there is literally nothing Corbyn could do to alienate his support base. I might be wrong.

    Well if the members truly turn on Corbyn over this, it gives cover for MPs to start piping up. I cannot see Corbyn holding firm on this point forever. His MPs really might fight him again on it, and without the members does he take them on?

    The problem is that Corbyn is an ideological Brexiteer. It will be very hard for him to change on that. I am just beginning to wonder stuff I have not dared allow myself to wonder for a long, long time ...

  • justin124justin124 Posts: 5,925

    This reads like wishful thinking to me. Corbyn wants power and the only way he can get it is to block May’s deal and then bring her down by forcing a VONC. The Tories are left facing a GE for which they are totally unprepared having failed to deliver Brexit, having abandoned domestic policy and with the same lame duck leader who lost a 20% lead in the polls in a snap GE she called and lost her majority as a result.

    While LAB is still in third place in Scotland it has very little chance of winning power.
    The most recent Panelbase poll had Labour and Tories both on 26%.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 35,302
    If @stjohn is watching, check your vanilla mail.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 6,220

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    This looks potentially quite significant ...

    So she backed him as leader and Labour at the last election, and presumably accepted Labour's official policy at conference which was to do what Corbyn still says he wants to do?

    I am more interested in the fact Lewis Tweeted it. My assumption has always been there is literally nothing Corbyn could do to alienate his support base. I might be wrong.

    Well if the members truly turn on Corbyn over this, it gives cover for MPs to start piping up. I cannot see Corbyn holding firm on this point forever. His MPs really might fight him again on it, and without the members does he take them on?

    The problem is that Corbyn is an ideological Brexiteer. It will be very hard for him to change on that. I am just beginning to wonder stuff I have not dared allow myself to wonder for a long, long time ...

    Personally, I think the Labour nerve will hold, and May's deal wont pass.

    Jezza may well be Brexit inclined (though if he really was so ideological then he wouldnt have supported Remain, albeit lukewarmly), but he hates the Tories more.

    An early GE, with A50 revocation for a new negotiating team, may be on the cards. Not likely to get much different, but may just not get round to Brexiting.

    Great away win for Leicester. Puel in!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 37,914
    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    This looks potentially quite significant ...

    So she backed him as leader and Labour at the last election, and presumably accepted Labour's official policy at conference which was to do what Corbyn still says he wants to do?

    I am more interested in the fact Lewis Tweeted it. My assumption has always been there is literally nothing Corbyn could do to alienate his support base. I might be wrong.

    Well if the members truly turn on Corbyn over this, it gives cover for MPs to start piping up. I cannot see Corbyn holding firm on this point forever. His MPs really might fight him again on it, and without the members does he take them on?

    The problem is that Corbyn is an ideological Brexiteer. It will be very hard for him to change on that. I am just beginning to wonder stuff I have not dared allow myself to wonder for a long, long time ...

    Personally, I think the Labour nerve will hold, and May's deal wont pass.

    Jezza may well be Brexit inclined (though if he really was so ideological then he wouldnt have supported Remain, albeit lukewarmly), but he hates the Tories more.

    An early GE, with A50 revocation for a new negotiating team, may be on the cards. Not likely to get much different, but may just not get round to Brexiting.

    Great away win for Leicester. Puel in!
    If they are renegotiating why do they need to revoke? Once that's done do you really think parliament will ever re-invoke? An extension would get the job done, revocation is an end not a means to a negotiation, a figleaf if ever there was one.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 35,302
    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    This looks potentially quite significant ...

    So she backed him as leader and Labour at the last election, and presumably accepted Labour's official policy at conference which was to do what Corbyn still says he wants to do?

    I am more interested in the fact Lewis Tweeted it. My assumption has always been there is literally nothing Corbyn could do to alienate his support base. I might be wrong.

    Well if the members truly turn on Corbyn over this, it gives cover for MPs to start piping up. I cannot see Corbyn holding firm on this point forever. His MPs really might fight him again on it, and without the members does he take them on?

    The problem is that Corbyn is an ideological Brexiteer. It will be very hard for him to change on that. I am just beginning to wonder stuff I have not dared allow myself to wonder for a long, long time ...

    Personally, I think the Labour nerve will hold, and May's deal wont pass.

    Jezza may well be Brexit inclined (though if he really was so ideological then he wouldnt have supported Remain, albeit lukewarmly), but he hates the Tories more.

    An early GE, with A50 revocation for a new negotiating team, may be on the cards. Not likely to get much different, but may just not get round to Brexiting.

    Great away win for Leicester. Puel in!
    Revoking only to invoke again? Not sure the ECJ will look took kindly on that.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 9,809
    Can't blame them for trying...
  • MJWMJW Posts: 533
    Disagree with this. Corbyn would actually secretly wouldn't be unhappy with a No Deal Brexit as it would likely collapse the government and provide a Year Zero for his declarative socialism. By contrast There are two things that are often missed about Corbyn's politics despite being in plain sight. The first is that he doesn't believe in the norms that all previous Labour leaders (inc. Michael Foot) did. It's most often noted on foreign policy but is also true domestically. When people do attack him for this it's more often to express fears about the hard left's authoritarianism, but it's probably more important that he's just not prepared to do much to preserve an economic system he hated even when it was delivering prosperity that funded things Labour likes. No deal may terrify those worried about their jobs and centre/soft left MPs but why would it Corbyn? A Tory no deal would be the opportunity of a lifetime for him. Secondly, where he differs from the old hard left is that he's a declarative socialist rather than a Bennite one - there's little grand theory beyond the idea that a socialist government can solve any ill put in front of it by declaring it will be solved. Therefore, Brexit outcomes that (rightly) terrify ordinary Labour MPs and members hold far less fear for Corbyn. After all, if the economic damage can be quickly reversed by a socialist government's willingness to throw money at state aid and huge social spending, then it's far less scary and something you'd countenance for political gain.

    Now, there's a gambit there, in that it relies on him not getting the blame and being deserted by pro-European left-wingers. But it's not unreasonable given that No Deal would tear the Tories apart, the chaos would require us to elect someone, and so far, despite mass provocation, the centre-left has been unwilling and unable to say 'Enough is enough' and put forward effective opposition - either internally or externally. If past trends repeat themselves remain Labour will get angry and then hold their nose.

    Compare that to May's deal passing - which would be a big political win for her, temporarily park the issue in a way that would provide the Tories an opportunity (one they're unlikely to take, but still) to regroup, preserve an economic system Corbyn doesn't much like anyway as well as giving the Tories the chance to firm up support with retail offers.

    I mean, who knows what Corbyn actually wants (I don't think he knows himself) but if there's an incidental outcome he doesn't enact himself, I'd say it's No Deal rather than the Tory one.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 6,220
    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    This looks potentially quite significant ...

    So she backed him as leader and Labour at the last election, and presumably accepted Labour's official policy at conference which was to do what Corbyn still says he wants to do?

    I am more interested in the fact Lewis Tweeted it. My assumption has always been there is literally nothing Corbyn could do to alienate his support base. I might be wrong.

    Well if the members truly turn on Corbyn over this, it gives cover for MPs to start piping up. I cannot see Corbyn holding firm on this point forever. His MPs really might fight him again on it, and without the members does he take them on?

    The problem is that Corbyn is an ideological Brexiteer. It will be very hard for him to change on that. I am just beginning to wonder stuff I have not dared allow myself to wonder for a long, long time ...

    Personally, I think the Labour nerve will hold, and May's deal wont pass.

    Jezza may well be Brexit inclined (though if he really was so ideological then he wouldnt have supported Remain, albeit lukewarmly), but he hates the Tories more.

    An early GE, with A50 revocation for a new negotiating team, may be on the cards. Not likely to get much different, but may just not get round to Brexiting.

    Great away win for Leicester. Puel in!
    If they are renegotiating why do they need to revoke? Once that's done do you really think parliament will ever re-invoke? An extension would get the job done, revocation is an end not a means to a negotiation, a figleaf if ever there was one.
    Yes, extension if the EU agree, revocation if they do not.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 6,220
    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    This looks potentially quite significant ...

    So she backed him as leader and Labour at the last election, and presumably accepted Labour's official policy at conference which was to do what Corbyn still says he wants to do?

    I am more interested in the fact Lewis Tweeted it. My assumption has always been there is literally nothing Corbyn could do to alienate his support base. I might be wrong.

    Well if the members truly turn on Corbyn over this, it gives cover for MPs to start piping up. I cannot see Corbyn holding firm on this point forever. His MPs really might fight him again on it, and without the members does he take them on?

    The problem is that Corbyn is an ideological Brexiteer. It will be very hard for him to change on that. I am just beginning to wonder stuff I have not dared allow myself to wonder for a long, long time ...

    Personally, I think the Labour nerve will hold, and May's deal wont pass.

    Jezza may well be Brexit inclined (though if he really was so ideological then he wouldnt have supported Remain, albeit lukewarmly), but he hates the Tories more.

    An early GE, with A50 revocation for a new negotiating team, may be on the cards. Not likely to get much different, but may just not get round to Brexiting.

    Great away win for Leicester. Puel in!
    Revoking only to invoke again? Not sure the ECJ will look took kindly on that.
    So the ECJ wouldn't let us re-invoke? what a shame ;-)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 21,849
    HYUFD said:

    Of course.

    And his only chance of bringing the government down is for May's deal to pass

    Or if No Deal and enough Tory Remainers like Boles, Soubry and Wollaston VONC the government
    ....which then puts Corbyn in Downing Street, implementing Brexit. Epic fail by Tory Remainers.

    Time for a Plan C, guys and gals.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 35,302
    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    This looks potentially quite significant ...

    So she backed him as leader and Labour at the last election, and presumably accepted Labour's official policy at conference which was to do what Corbyn still says he wants to do?

    I am more interested in the fact Lewis Tweeted it. My assumption has always been there is literally nothing Corbyn could do to alienate his support base. I might be wrong.

    Well if the members truly turn on Corbyn over this, it gives cover for MPs to start piping up. I cannot see Corbyn holding firm on this point forever. His MPs really might fight him again on it, and without the members does he take them on?

    The problem is that Corbyn is an ideological Brexiteer. It will be very hard for him to change on that. I am just beginning to wonder stuff I have not dared allow myself to wonder for a long, long time ...

    Personally, I think the Labour nerve will hold, and May's deal wont pass.

    Jezza may well be Brexit inclined (though if he really was so ideological then he wouldnt have supported Remain, albeit lukewarmly), but he hates the Tories more.

    An early GE, with A50 revocation for a new negotiating team, may be on the cards. Not likely to get much different, but may just not get round to Brexiting.

    Great away win for Leicester. Puel in!
    Revoking only to invoke again? Not sure the ECJ will look took kindly on that.
    So the ECJ wouldn't let us re-invoke? what a shame ;-)
    No, they wouldn't allow us to revoke in the first place :p
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 12,973
    MJW said:

    Disagree with this. Corbyn would actually secretly wouldn't be unhappy with a No Deal Brexit as it would likely collapse the government and provide a Year Zero for his declarative socialism. By contrast There are two things that are often missed about Corbyn's politics despite being in plain sight. The first is that he doesn't believe in the norms that all previous Labour leaders (inc. Michael Foot) did. It's most often noted on foreign policy but is also true domestically. When people do attack him for this it's more often to express fears about the hard left's authoritarianism, but it's probably more important that he's just not prepared to do much to preserve an economic system he hated even when it was delivering prosperity that funded things Labour likes. No deal may terrify those worried about their jobs and centre/soft left MPs but why would it Corbyn? A Tory no deal would be the opportunity of a lifetime for him. Secondly, where he differs from the old hard left is that he's a declarative socialist rather than a Bennite one - there's little grand theory beyond the idea that a socialist government can solve any ill put in front of it by declaring it will be solved. Therefore, Brexit outcomes that (rightly) terrify ordinary Labour MPs and members hold far less fear for Corbyn. After all, if the economic damage can be quickly reversed by a socialist government's willingness to throw money at state aid and huge

    Now, there's a gambit there, in that it relies on him not getting the blame and being deserted by pro-European left-wingers. But it's not unreasonable given that No Deal would tear the Tories apart, the chaos would require us to elect someone, and so far, despite mass provocation, the centre-left has been unwilling and unable to say 'Enough is enough' and put forward effective opposition - either internally or externally. If past trends repeat themselves remain Labour will get angry and then hold their nose.

    Compare that to May's deal passing - which would be a big political win for her, temporarily park the issue in a way that would provide the Tories an opportunity (one they're unlikely to take, but still) to regroup, preserve an economic system Corbyn doesn't much like anyway as well as giving the Tories the chance to firm up support with retail offers.

    I mean, who knows what Corbyn actually wants (I don't think he knows himself) but if there's an incidental outcome he doesn't enact himself, I'd say it's No Deal rather than the Tory one.

    It's interesting how often we see people here commenting at length on Corbyn's economic views. Yet how much has Corbyn ever said, or written, about economic theory? Indeed is he even that interested in domestic economic affairs, having spent most of his life championing matters of foreign affairs?

    In reality I suspect McDonnell - who is a Marxist - will be driving their economy policy.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 12,973
    Where is OGH finding his "betting that the agreement will be passed by MPs in Q1 2019"? It isn't on BFE or Ladbrokes.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 20,716
    edited December 2018
    IanB2 said:

    Where is OGH finding his "betting that the agreement will be passed by MPs in Q1 2019"? It isn't on BFE or Ladbrokes.

    Presumably the bet is on Brexit going ahead on time. That is almost certainly a winner if the deal is passed by MPs, with an added bonus of also winning if we crash out on 29th March.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 12,973

    It would be the biggest comeback since Lazarus. But before MPs are going to retract their opposition, the deal will need to become more popular. There’s no sign of that and no one is really trying to change that.

    Any recantation will first come from Leave MPs. They very unwisely expressed themselves in extreme terms. Such a retraction would be extremely humiliating and probably career-ending. But until Leavers backtrack, Remainer MPs will hide behind them seeing this as a route to a fresh referendum.

    The deal looks dead as a doornail to me, whatever the party leaders’ public or private wishes.

    Aren't you sniffing the wind?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 12,973
    GIN1138 said:

    I suspect Jezza would prefer "No Deal" first and then Theresa May's deal.

    Jezza was for Leave even before Farage remember...

    Nah, there's next to no evidence that Corbyn gave a **** about Brexit prior to the referendum. He is, however, interested in a Tory f**k up Brexit since it is his best route to power.
  • What far left control of the Labour party has delivered is a relaxed tolerance of anti-Semitism and active support for Brexit. It’s genuinely bizarre that so many members and MPs fail to see what is staring them squarely in the face. Denial is such a powerful force, I guess.

    The MPs already know the above, it’s one of the reasons why they don’t like Corbyn. But it’s clear Labour members’ dislike and fear of a return to the agenda pursued by moderates pre Corbyn outweighs any concerns they have about him. It’s been evident now from sometime Corbyn is not on the stop Brexit train, and yet few moderates have managed to win over his supporters.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 12,973

    IanB2 said:

    Where is OGH finding his "betting that the agreement will be passed by MPs in Q1 2019"? It isn't on BFE or Ladbrokes.

    Presumably the bet is on Brexit going ahead on time. That is almost certainly a winner if the deal is passed by MPs, with an added bonus of also winning if we crash out on 29th March.
    No, there is a bet that fits this bill, with a hard March deadline, on BFSB
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 12,973
    Frederick Chipstead-Tammadge
  • I'm not sure Christina Glenclova-Ackroyd works so well.....
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 12,973

    What far left control of the Labour party has delivered is a relaxed tolerance of anti-Semitism and active support for Brexit. It’s genuinely bizarre that so many members and MPs fail to see what is staring them squarely in the face. Denial is such a powerful force, I guess.

    The MPs already know the above, it’s one of the reasons why they don’t like Corbyn. But it’s clear Labour members’ dislike and fear of a return to the agenda pursued by moderates pre Corbyn outweighs any concerns they have about him. It’s been evident now from sometime Corbyn is not on the stop Brexit train, and yet few moderates have managed to win over his supporters.
    The point is fast arriving where the so-called moderate Labour MPs will have to decide whether they are man or mouse. Sadly, my money is on 'mouse'.
This discussion has been closed.