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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This surely hits the nail on the head – Corbyn would prefer TM

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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,533
    tlg86 said:

    I don't usually enjoy watching Man Utd win big, but that was good. Jose must be smarting.

    I am sure you enjoyed the Foxes grinding out a win too. :)
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    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,578
    Pulpstar said:

    malcolmg said:

    It might have been an amusing ten seconds a generation or more ago.

    But there are probably more Labour MPs with double surnames now than Conservatives.
    I am Samuel Baird-Hay
    kle4 said:

    If the comments on Twitter are anything to go by, Corbyn has massively angered a lot of his natural supporters. Some of the comments are something to behold.

    What an idiot..... he is pretty much ruling himself out of ever winning an election. He has all the nous of a complete muppet.

    Are they going to vote LD instead? Or suck it up if it means getting the Tories out? If it is 'try to renegotiate leave' with Corbyn or 'definitely leave and be ruled by the Tories because of wasted votes on the LDs' which way will such people go?
    You would need to be doolally to go LD, however choice is extremely limited.
    Charles Whitefield-Phipps
    Not really working for me... Bill Madeira-Henshall
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    edited December 2018
    How does it tally with Corbyn’s comments? On the hypothetical polling the Remain vote would split, and the Tories would romp home.
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    Denial is such a powerful force, I guess.

    snip
    One of the themes of recent European politics has been the hollowing out of the centre-left vote in most countries. Britain is held up as an exception because of the relative success of Labour. Not true. In other polities, more radical or unorthodox Left parties - la France Insoumise, Syriza, the German Greens - have taken on and overhauled their social democratic rivals in elections. In Britain, with FPTP and its consequent broad-church governing parties - the radicals haven't had to bother. They've simply overthrown their centre-left colleagues and seized control of their party from them.

    The Labour centre-Left resembles nothing so much as one of the victims of the parasitic species in the Alien movies. Despite inadequate and ultimately futile efforts to save the patient, the Corbyn movement has burst out of its chest and it's flailing about on the operating table in the final throes of agony. Its ultimate demise appears inevitable.

    One assumes that a moderate, slightly left-of-centre political force will re-emerge at some point in the future, but it seems more likely that it will either be an evolution of the Liberal Democrats, or something entirely new, than the Labour Party.
    If we want a moderate slightly left of centre political force, the Lib Dems are already that now. Yet they aren’t doing that well, and certainly aren’t any close to over taking Labour. That the Lib Dems’ greatest moment of success in recent decades was when they were seen as to ‘left’ of Labour while moderates were at the helm in the Labour Party shouldn’t be forgetton either. While I don’t think many voters outside Corbyn’s core base particularly like him, I’ve not been convinced there’s large scale demand for Blairite/moderate vision since 2017. The collapse of the centre left across Europe has happened for a reason, and it’s not entirely in spite of what voters want.
    This, always considered myself a left winger but was never much interested in voting for labour before Corbyn.

    TBH the labour moderates who want a return to the centre are anything but pragmatic and concentrated on winning elections, as much as the left in years gone by they want to push their beliefs in spite of the electorate not because of it.
    Blair won 3 elections in a row. How many have Labour won since. Emulating Foot is not the way to win elections
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    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    RobD said:

    How does it tally with Corbyn’s comments? On the hypothetical polling the Remain vote would split, and the Tories would romp home.
    The thing is, if there were a general election, both Labour and the Tories would need a manifesto. But neither would be able to agree one, or campaign on it with vast number of MPs simply refusing to be bound by it.

    It would be an hilarious clusterfuck.
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    ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    Paddy Ashdown has passed away.
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    Paddy Ashdown dies
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    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited December 2018


    Blair won 3 elections in a row. How many have Labour won since. Emulating Foot is not the way to win elections

    It's a simplistic analysis, but let's be clear here, the broad thrusts of Labour's policy platform is not the issue. At the last election, the Tory manifesto was a void of ideas, and the Labour manifesto was a mostly popular raft of moderate social-democratic interventions.

    Labour's problem, was and will be, not its policies, but that Corbyn is useless at the fundamentals of politics and in no way seen as a credible Prime Minister in waiting. Nor will he ever be.
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    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Rest in rip Lord Pantsdown

    You are wiv da angles now
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    RIP Paddy Ashdown.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Paddy Ashdown dies

    RIP
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,578

    IanB2 said:

    It would be the biggest comeback since Lazarus. But before MPs are going to retract their opposition, the deal will need to become more popular. There’s no sign of that and no one is really trying to change that.

    Any recantation will first come from Leave MPs. They very unwisely expressed themselves in extreme terms. Such a retraction would be extremely humiliating and probably career-ending. But until Leavers backtrack, Remainer MPs will hide behind them seeing this as a route to a fresh referendum.

    The deal looks dead as a doornail to me, whatever the party leaders’ public or private wishes.

    Aren't you sniffing the wind?
    The public mood isn’t changing yet. There are some MPs looking for a way to change their minds but someone has to explain to the public why they should.

    As I’ve said repeatedly, I would vote for the deal if I were an MP since, while rancid, it delivers what was campaigned for. But I seem to be in a small minority.
    Not sure I understand your "There are some MPs looking for a way to change their minds but someone has to explain to the public why they should." comment?

    I don't think the vast majority of the public will notice MPs changing their stance tbh.
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    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited December 2018



    Blair won 3 elections in a row. How many have Labour won since. Emulating Foot is not the way to win elections

    Blair's World has Come and Gone. Look at the fate of Macron, who tried to pull off the same trick.

    The Labour Moderates are where they are, because they Failed.

    Blair had unprecedented power compared to his successors, 100 plus majorities. Yet he is remembered, and reviled, for his catastrophic decision on Iraq.

    The Left has to win power and fail, before there is any way back for the Kendalls and Chukas.

    In fact, I suspect initially a Corby Govt will be quite popular (vide Chavez).

    Corby may even be clever enough to cede power quickly, and remain a benevolent Santa Claus figure for ever to those who voted for him.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,827
    RIP Paddy Ashdown
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    RIP Ashdown. We shall all eat a hat tonight.
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    ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    Denial is such a powerful force, I guess.

    snip
    O
    The Labour centre-Left resembles nothing so much as one of the victims of the parasitic species in the Alien movies. Despite inadequate and ultimately futile efforts to save the patient, the Corbyn movement has burst out of its chest and it's flailing about on the operating table in the final throes of agony. Its ultimate demise appears inevitable.

    One assumes that a moderate, slightly left-of-centre political force will re-emerge at some point in the future, but it seems more likely that it will either be an evolution of the Liberal Democrats, or something entirely new, than the Labour Party.
    If we want a moderate slightly left of centre political force, the Lib Dems are already that now. Yet they aren’t doing that well, and certainly aren’t any close to over taking Labour. That the Lib Dems’ greatest moment of success in recent decades was when they were seen as to ‘left’ of Labour while moderates were at the helm in the Labour Party shouldn’t be forgetton either. While I don’t think many voters outside Corbyn’s core base particularly like him, I’ve not been convinced there’s large scale demand for Blairite/moderate vision since 2017. The collapse of the centre left across Europe has happened for a reason, and it’s not entirely in spite of what voters want.
    This, always considered myself a left winger but was never much interested in voting for labour before Corbyn.

    TBH the labour moderates who want a return to the centre are anything but pragmatic and concentrated on winning elections, as much as the left in years gone by they want to push their beliefs in spite of the electorate not because of it.
    Blair won 3 elections in a row. How many have Labour won since. Emulating Foot is not the way to win elections
    I am in two minds about this. I think New Labour poisoned the well for parties masquerading as being "in the centre." I think the voters are now looking to be in control of the centre by voting for a left party and then a right party to average the centre over time, but at least get some radical actions that need to be done in the meantime as opposed to focus group mush.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,827

    Denial is such a powerful force, I guess.

    snip
    One of the themes of recent European politics has been the hollowing out of the centre-left vote in most countries. Britain is held up as an exception because of the relative success of Labour. Not true. In other polities, more radical or unorthodox Left parties - la France Insoumise, Syriza, the German Greens - have taken on and overhauled their social democratic rivals in elections. In Britain, with FPTP and its consequent broad-church governing parties - the radicals haven't had to bother. They've simply overthrown their centre-left colleagues and seized control of their party from them.

    The Labour centre-Left resembles nothing so much as one of the victims of the parasitic species in the Alien movies. Despite inadequate and ultimately futile efforts to save the patient, the Corbyn movement has burst out of its chest and it's flailing about on the operating table in the final throes of agony. Its ultimate demise appears inevitable.

    One assumes that a moderate, slightly left-of-centre political force will re-emerge at some point in the future, but it seems more likely that it will either be an evolution of the Liberal Democrats, or something entirely new, than the Labour Party.
    If we want a moderate slightly left of centre political force, the Lib Dems are already that now. Yet they aren’t doing that well, and certainly aren’t any close to over taking Labour. That the Lib Dems’ greatest moment of success in recent decades was when they were seen as to ‘left’ of Labour while moderates were at the helm in the Labour Party shouldn’t be forgetton either. While I don’t think many voters outside Corbyn’s core base particularly like him, I’ve not been convinced there’s large scale demand for Blairite/moderate vision since 2017. The collapse of the centre left across Europe has happened for a reason, and it’s not entirely in spite of what voters want.
    This, always considered myself a left winger but was never much interested in voting for labour before Corbyn.

    TBH the labour moderates who want a return to the centre are anything but pragmatic and concentrated on winning elections, as much as the left in years gone by they want to push their beliefs in spite of the electorate not because of it.
    Blair won 3 elections in a row. How many have Labour won since. Emulating Foot is not the way to win elections
    Blair is why we are where we are now
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    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234


    The public mood isn’t changing yet. There are some MPs looking for a way to change their minds but someone has to explain to the public why they should.

    Point of order. The last YouGov had a 18pt lead for remain.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/dec/20/polls-stay-eu-yougov-brexit-peoples-vote

    It seems there has been a very clear and pretty sizeable changing of minds in the UK, and the crisis has barely started.
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    FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047

    Paddy Ashdown has passed away.

    Very quick. A sad loss of an elder statesman at a time when we may well need them.
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    Denial is such a powerful force, I guess.

    snip
    One of the themes of recent European politics has been the hollowing out of the centre-left vote in most countries. Britain is held up as an exception because of the relative success of Labour. Not true. In other polities, more radical or unorthodox Left parties - la France Insoumise, Syriza, the German Greens - have taken on and overhauled their social democratic rivals in elections. In Britain, with FPTP and its consequent broad-church governing parties - the radicals haven't had to bother. They've simply overthrown their centre-left colleagues and seized control of their party from them.

    The Labour centre-Left resembles nothing so much as one of the victims of the parasitic species in the Alien movies. Despite inadequate and ultimately futile efforts to save the patient, the Corbyn movement has burst out of its chest and it's flailing about on the operating table in the final throes of agony. Its ultimate demise appears inevitable.

    One assumes that a moderate, slightly left-of-centre political force will re-emerge at some point in the future, but it seems more likely that it will either be an evolution of the Liberal Democrats, or something entirely new, than the Labour Party.
    If we want a moderate slightly left of centre political force, the Lib Dems are already that now. Yet they aren’t doing that well, and certainly aren’t any close to over taking Labour. That the Lib Dems’ greatest moment of success in recent decades was when they were seen as to ‘left’ of Labour while moderates were at the helm in the Labour Party shouldn’t be forgetton either. While I don’t think many voters outside Corbyn’s core base particularly like him, I’ve not been convinced there’s large scale demand for Blairite/moderate vision since 2017. The collapse of the centre left across Europe has happened for a reason, and it’s not entirely in spite of what voters want.
    This, always considered myself a left winger but was never much interested in voting for labour before Corbyn.

    TBH the labour moderates who want a return to the centre are anything but pragmatic and concentrated on winning elections, as much as the left in years gone by they want to push their beliefs in spite of the electorate not because of it.
    Blair won 3 elections in a row. How many have Labour won since. Emulating Foot is not the way to win elections
    Blair is why we are where we are now
    Indeed so. Blair was to the right of pre-Thatcher Tories.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,578

    Paddy Ashdown dies

    Sad news - a real politician compared with a lot of today's.
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    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Paddy Ashdown was that rare breed of politician: one who'd actually killed people with his own hands rather than simply doing it via public policy as is the Tories' preferred way of killing undesirables.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,645


    The public mood isn’t changing yet. There are some MPs looking for a way to change their minds but someone has to explain to the public why they should.

    Point of order. The last YouGov had a 18pt lead for remain.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/dec/20/polls-stay-eu-yougov-brexit-peoples-vote

    It seems there has been a very clear and pretty sizeable changing of minds in the UK, and the crisis has barely started.
    I thought he meant changing in support of the deal, to encourage MPs to switch from die hard opposition to it. Which as you say has not happened.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,645

    Paddy Ashdown was that rare breed of politician: one who'd actually killed people with his own hands rather than simply doing it via public policy as is the Tories' preferred way of killing undesirables.

    How classy.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,114
    RobD said:

    RIP Ashdown. We shall all eat a hat tonight.

    That's a sad loss.

    And it's also a political disaster. With all his shortcomings he was a big figure and we could have done with his calming influence in the next three months.
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    kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,936
    kle4 said:

    Paddy Ashdown was that rare breed of politician: one who'd actually killed people with his own hands rather than simply doing it via public policy as is the Tories' preferred way of killing undesirables.

    How classy.
    Totally inappropriate.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,578

    RobD said:

    How does it tally with Corbyn’s comments? On the hypothetical polling the Remain vote would split, and the Tories would romp home.
    The thing is, if there were a general election, both Labour and the Tories would need a manifesto. But neither would be able to agree one, or campaign on it with vast number of MPs simply refusing to be bound by it.

    It would be an hilarious clusterfuck.
    Indeed. Bring it on!
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961

    Paddy Ashdown was that rare breed of politician: one who'd actually killed people with his own hands rather than simply doing it via public policy as is the Tories' preferred way of killing undesirables.

    What are you on about? Roasting babies is my favourite way of preparing then. :p
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    Paddy Ashdown dies

    Sad news - a real politician compared with a lot of today's.
    Sad news yes - though he was never a politician I trusted unlike David Steel, Charles Kennedy and Menzies Campbell.
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    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    kle4 said:

    Paddy Ashdown was that rare breed of politician: one who'd actually killed people with his own hands rather than simply doing it via public policy as is the Tories' preferred way of killing undesirables.

    How classy.
    I mean it as a good thing. Ashdown didn't have the luxury of plausible deniability for the people he killed. Not like, say, the Tory frontbench who when they kill people don't have to see the life flicker from the eyes of the people they've starved to death, let die of hypothermia in a gutter or get deported back to homophobic regimes to be tortured and murdered.

    Most politicians prefer to kill people via intermediaries.

    Ashdown was special forces. When he killed you, he looked you in the eyes as he slit your throat.

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    AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    edited December 2018


    Blair won 3 elections in a row. How many have Labour won since. Emulating Foot is not the way to win elections

    It's a simplistic analysis, but let's be clear here, the broad thrusts of Labour's policy platform is not the issue. At the last election, the Tory manifesto was a void of ideas, and the Labour manifesto was a mostly popular raft of moderate social-democratic interventions.

    Labour's problem, was and will be, not its policies, but that Corbyn is useless at the fundamentals of politics and in no way seen as a credible Prime Minister in waiting. Nor will he ever be.
    Labour’s policies are Corbyn’s policies whilst he remains leader. I don’t think it’s meaningful to try and differentiate. A new leader would have very different policies.Labour made a series of spending pledges that were superficially attractive but economically ruinous. They started reneging on tuition fees as soon as the election was over. The idea that renationalisation could be achieved for negligible cost was risible.

    Labour simply scared too many people to benefit from those they attracted such that the Tories were still the largest party despite the worst campaign and worst manifesto that I can recall.

    For all the apparent concern over a hard Brexit, busineeses fear a Corbyn Gov far more. That will focus minds at the next election as it did in the Scottish Independence referendum

    If Labour force May out on a VONC such that the Tories have to fight the next election with her still as leader, Labour will probably get into power with SNP support. If Labour had moderate leader, then no matter who leads the Tories, they would get a landslide at the next election - at least in my view. Fighting the next election with Corbyn as leader against a Tory who is not May gives the Tories a big chance of winning that frankly they don’t deserve.
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,828
    Evening all :)

    Very sad news this evening for this Liberal Democrat to hear of the passing of Paddy Ashdown. Paddy was instrumental in saving the new Social and Liberal Democrats (later the Liberal Democrats) from disaster in 1988-89.

    Some may say the LDs now are irrelevant and pointless but in early 1989 the party stood on the edge of extinction, financially in desperate straits and after Richmond facing the very real possibility of being supplanted by the rump SDP under David Owen.

    That the Party survived and prospered was in many ways down to Paddy who was a tireless campaigner and activist (and was loved by activists as he was one of them). His energy enthused us all after the dark days of merger and in the 1990s and especially after 1992 he was instrumental in building the ground for the breakthrough election of 1997 which saw the parliamentary party more than double to 46 MPs.

    Paddy took the party out of long months of introspection and wrangling and got us out there campaigning and talking to people - Eastbourne, Ribble Valley, Newbury, Christchurch and Eastleigh all happened on his watch along with a host of huge advances in Council seats.

    I had the good fortune to meet Paddy a couple of times in the 1990s when he came to speak to activists - he had a gift for enthusing and motivating activists and ordinary members and had none of the trappings of Westminster about him at that time.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961

    kle4 said:

    Paddy Ashdown was that rare breed of politician: one who'd actually killed people with his own hands rather than simply doing it via public policy as is the Tories' preferred way of killing undesirables.

    How classy.
    I mean it as a good thing. Ashdown didn't have the luxury of plausible deniability for the people he killed. Not like, say, the Tory frontbench who when they kill people don't have to see the life flicker from the eyes of the people they've starved to death, let die of hypothermia in a gutter or get deported back to homophobic regimes to be tortured and murdered.

    Most politicians prefer to kill people via intermediaries.

    Ashdown was special forces. When he killed you, he looked you in the eyes as he slit your throat.

    Yes, politicians just love killing people.
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    RIP Paddy Ashdown.

    A titan amongst his party (and outside it) whether you agreed with him or not you had to respect him.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,921
    RIP Paddy Ashdown.

    I wonder if he'll go to Heaven, Hell, or somewhere in between?

    (Spitting Image had a sketch after news of his affair came out, with him saying: "I touched neither her left leg, nor her right leg, but somewhere in between."

    I wonder if he'd still be available to be Lib Dem leader? even dead, he'd certainly be more visible than the thankfully-still-alive Cable ...
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Blair won 3 elections in a row. How many have Labour won since. Emulating Foot is not the way to win elections

    It might give Mrs May the reputation of "losing" two elections in a row. The last one's result was not exactly sparkling :D
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    This, always considered myself a left winger but was never much interested in voting for labour before Corbyn.

    A total waste of space then.
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    tlg86 said:

    I don't usually enjoy watching Man Utd win big, but that was good. Jose must be smarting.

    He’s crying all the way to the bank.
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    RIP Paddy Ashdown.

    I wonder if he'll go to Heaven, Hell, or somewhere in between?

    (Spitting Image had a sketch after news of his affair came out, with him saying: "I touched neither her left leg, nor her right leg, but somewhere in between."

    I wonder if he'd still be available to be Lib Dem leader? even dead, he'd certainly be more visible than the thankfully-still-alive Cable ...

    He was only a couple of years older. Which illustrates one of the risks of older leaders.
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    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    Paddy Ashdown was that rare breed of politician: one who'd actually killed people with his own hands rather than simply doing it via public policy as is the Tories' preferred way of killing undesirables.

    How classy.
    I mean it as a good thing. Ashdown didn't have the luxury of plausible deniability for the people he killed. Not like, say, the Tory frontbench who when they kill people don't have to see the life flicker from the eyes of the people they've starved to death, let die of hypothermia in a gutter or get deported back to homophobic regimes to be tortured and murdered.

    Most politicians prefer to kill people via intermediaries.

    Ashdown was special forces. When he killed you, he looked you in the eyes as he slit your throat.

    Yes, politicians just love killing people.
    I mean, they do kill an awful lot of people. Mostly it's incompetence rather than active malice, such as the huge increase in the numbers of rough sleepers dying:

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/apr/11/deaths-of-uk-homeless-people-more-than-double-in-five-years

    Or, say, the huge jump in suicide associated with Universal Credit.

    It's not that the Tories are actively trying to kill you, more that they don't give enough of a shit to lift a finger to stop you from dying.

    The special exemption here is Theresa May's personal interventions to ensure LGBT people got deported to murderously homophobic regimes. She knew those people would be killed, and she did it anyway.
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    Blair won 3 elections in a row. How many have Labour won since. Emulating Foot is not the way to win elections

    It might give Mrs May the reputation of "losing" two elections in a row. The last one's result was not exactly sparkling :D
    It might but it might not. She lost her majority but she’s still in power. That’s a lot better than Labour have managed in any election since Blair was ousted or in any post Wilson until Blair came along.
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    kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,936

    RIP Paddy Ashdown.

    I wonder if he'll go to Heaven, Hell, or somewhere in between?

    (Spitting Image had a sketch after news of his affair came out, with him saying: "I touched neither her left leg, nor her right leg, but somewhere in between."

    I wonder if he'd still be available to be Lib Dem leader? even dead, he'd certainly be more visible than the thankfully-still-alive Cable ...

    He was only a couple of years older. Which illustrates one of the risks of older leaders.
    I was just about to say this. Trump will be 74 in 2020 and Corbyn nearing 73 in 2022.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,827

    Blair won 3 elections in a row. How many have Labour won since. Emulating Foot is not the way to win elections

    It might give Mrs May the reputation of "losing" two elections in a row. The last one's result was not exactly sparkling :D
    It might but it might not. She lost her majority but she’s still in power. That’s a lot better than Labour have managed in any election since Blair was ousted or in any post Wilson until Blair came along.
    In Government but not in power
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    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    kyf_100 said:

    RIP Paddy Ashdown.

    I wonder if he'll go to Heaven, Hell, or somewhere in between?

    (Spitting Image had a sketch after news of his affair came out, with him saying: "I touched neither her left leg, nor her right leg, but somewhere in between."

    I wonder if he'd still be available to be Lib Dem leader? even dead, he'd certainly be more visible than the thankfully-still-alive Cable ...

    He was only a couple of years older. Which illustrates one of the risks of older leaders.
    I was just about to say this. Trump will be 74 in 2020 and Corbyn nearing 73 in 2022.
    Trump has set batshit crazy pensioners with advanced dementia in politics back by 50 years.
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    RIP Paddy Ashdown.

    I wonder if he'll go to Heaven, Hell, or somewhere in between?

    (Spitting Image had a sketch after news of his affair came out, with him saying: "I touched neither her left leg, nor her right leg, but somewhere in between."

    I wonder if he'd still be available to be Lib Dem leader? even dead, he'd certainly be more visible than the thankfully-still-alive Cable ...

    He was only a couple of years older. Which illustrates one of the risks of older leaders.
    But then Hugh Gaitskell and John Smith were but in their mid-50s.
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    Blair won 3 elections in a row. How many have Labour won since. Emulating Foot is not the way to win elections

    It might give Mrs May the reputation of "losing" two elections in a row. The last one's result was not exactly sparkling :D
    It might but it might not. She lost her majority but she’s still in power. That’s a lot better than Labour have managed in any election since Blair was ousted or in any post Wilson until Blair came along.
    'In power'is surely an exaggeration. 'In office' is closer to the reality.
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    kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,936

    kyf_100 said:

    RIP Paddy Ashdown.

    I wonder if he'll go to Heaven, Hell, or somewhere in between?

    (Spitting Image had a sketch after news of his affair came out, with him saying: "I touched neither her left leg, nor her right leg, but somewhere in between."

    I wonder if he'd still be available to be Lib Dem leader? even dead, he'd certainly be more visible than the thankfully-still-alive Cable ...

    He was only a couple of years older. Which illustrates one of the risks of older leaders.
    I was just about to say this. Trump will be 74 in 2020 and Corbyn nearing 73 in 2022.
    Trump has set batshit crazy pensioners with advanced dementia in politics back by 50 years.
    Stay classy, Mr Gra'coe.
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    AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    edited December 2018

    Blair won 3 elections in a row. How many have Labour won since. Emulating Foot is not the way to win elections

    It might give Mrs May the reputation of "losing" two elections in a row. The last one's result was not exactly sparkling :D
    It might but it might not. She lost her majority but she’s still in power. That’s a lot better than Labour have managed in any election since Blair was ousted or in any post Wilson until Blair came along.
    In Government but not in power
    Very true, which is not good for Britain. However, every other party leader including Corbyn is neither in Gov. nor in power. Given the choice, I suspect most Tories prefer what they’ve got to the alternative.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    kyf_100 said:

    RIP Paddy Ashdown.

    I wonder if he'll go to Heaven, Hell, or somewhere in between?

    (Spitting Image had a sketch after news of his affair came out, with him saying: "I touched neither her left leg, nor her right leg, but somewhere in between."

    I wonder if he'd still be available to be Lib Dem leader? even dead, he'd certainly be more visible than the thankfully-still-alive Cable ...

    He was only a couple of years older. Which illustrates one of the risks of older leaders.
    I was just about to say this. Trump will be 74 in 2020 and Corbyn nearing 73 in 2022.
    Trump has set batshit crazy pensioners with advanced dementia in politics back by 50 years.
    Talking about American politics

    https://order-order.com/2018/12/22/americans-crowdfunding-millions-trumps-wall/
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    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    Paddy Ashdown was that rare breed of politician: one who'd actually killed people with his own hands rather than simply doing it via public policy as is the Tories' preferred way of killing undesirables.

    How classy.
    I mean it as a good thing. Ashdown didn't have the luxury of plausible deniability for the people he killed. Not like, say, the Tory frontbench who when they kill people don't have to see the life flicker from the eyes of the people they've starved to death, let die of hypothermia in a gutter or get deported back to homophobic regimes to be tortured and murdered.

    Most politicians prefer to kill people via intermediaries.

    Ashdown was special forces. When he killed you, he looked you in the eyes as he slit your throat.

    Yes, politicians just love killing people.
    I mean, they do kill an awful lot of people. Mostly it's incompetence rather than active malice, such as the huge increase in the numbers of rough sleepers dying:

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/apr/11/deaths-of-uk-homeless-people-more-than-double-in-five-years

    Or, say, the huge jump in suicide associated with Universal Credit.

    It's not that the Tories are actively trying to kill you, more that they don't give enough of a shit to lift a finger to stop you from dying.

    The special exemption here is Theresa May's personal interventions to ensure LGBT people got deported to murderously homophobic regimes. She knew those people would be killed, and she did it anyway.
    The rather more obvious fact is that if you don't fight in wars, then you can be very casual about sending other peoples' sons and daughters to die in the desert.

    How many deaths were caused by Blair's Wars?
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    Sad news about Paddy Ashdown. Whatever your views he was a decent politician and parliamentarian.
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    ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819
    Corbyn's personal brexit preference is probably closest to May's deal but as others have mentioned he has no fear of No Deal for the political gains it will offer him.

    Politically, May's deal passing is his worst option. It's a huge win for May, and makes it harder for him to win if there is a snap election shortly after. While he and his team have no desire to remain in the EU, it's not going to be a defining issue for him, and if the time comes that it looks like he would need to pivot to remain he would. Left wing eurosceptics are generally less motivated by the EU than right wing eurosceptics, he'd rather be in power while being in the EU than allow May to deliver a somewhat successful brexit.
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    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Very sad news regarding Paddy Ashdown . I thought he was a great leader for the Lib Dems and I always had the highest respect for him .
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,828

    Corbyn's personal brexit preference is probably closest to May's deal but as others have mentioned he has no fear of No Deal for the political gains it will offer him.

    Politically, May's deal passing is his worst option. It's a huge win for May, and makes it harder for him to win if there is a snap election shortly after. While he and his team have no desire to remain in the EU, it's not going to be a defining issue for him, and if the time comes that it looks like he would need to pivot to remain he would. Left wing eurosceptics are generally less motivated by the EU than right wing eurosceptics, he'd rather be in power while being in the EU than allow May to deliver a somewhat successful brexit.

    Inasmuch as he wants the power to make the fundamental changes to the economy that being free of EU influence provides, perhaps but I'm not convinced.

    IF the DUP stay true to their word and agree to support a motion of No Confidence IF the WA passes, Corbyn may yet get his chance but he can also wait out a No Deal and if it is the disaster so many claim he will reap the benefits.

    The truth of all this is Labour is as split as the Conservatives and both May and Corbyn have the dilemma of internal party management butting up against national interest.
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,987

    Sad news about Paddy Ashdown. Whatever your views he was a decent politician and parliamentarian.

    He was a big man. I feel sorry for his family. They will be devastated. Six weeks from his diagnosis with bladder cancer to his death.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,936
    Sad news indeed about Paddy Ashdown.

    Are we expecting any polls tonight?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943

    Paddy Ashdown dies

    RIP Ashdown more than anyone took the Liberals from an asterisk back to a significant party again
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    Barnesian said:

    Sad news about Paddy Ashdown. Whatever your views he was a decent politician and parliamentarian.

    He was a big man. I feel sorry for his family. They will be devastated. Six weeks from his diagnosis with bladder cancer to his death.
    Just before Xmas as well. Terrible.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    Paddy Ashdown was that rare breed of politician: one who'd actually killed people with his own hands rather than simply doing it via public policy as is the Tories' preferred way of killing undesirables.

    How classy.
    I mean it as a good thing. Ashdown didn't have the luxury of plausible deniability for the people he killed. Not like, say, the Tory frontbench who when they kill people don't have to see the life flicker from the eyes of the people they've starved to death, let die of hypothermia in a gutter or get deported back to homophobic regimes to be tortured and murdered.

    Most politicians prefer to kill people via intermediaries.

    Ashdown was special forces. When he killed you, he looked you in the eyes as he slit your throat.

    Yes, politicians just love killing people.
    I mean, they do kill an awful lot of people. Mostly it's incompetence rather than active malice, such as the huge increase in the numbers of rough sleepers dying:

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/apr/11/deaths-of-uk-homeless-people-more-than-double-in-five-years

    Or, say, the huge jump in suicide associated with Universal Credit.

    It's not that the Tories are actively trying to kill you, more that they don't give enough of a shit to lift a finger to stop you from dying.

    The special exemption here is Theresa May's personal interventions to ensure LGBT people got deported to murderously homophobic regimes. She knew those people would be killed, and she did it anyway.
    The Tories have ensured that councils have to prioritise single people too, have imposed a levy on absentee landlords to support rough sleeping and even Universal Credit aims to ensure you do not lose all your benefits if you work more than 16 hours a week
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    kle4 said:



    Edit: Also, what happened to Lazarus after his comeback?

    He died
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,645
    Charles said:

    kle4 said:



    Edit: Also, what happened to Lazarus after his comeback?

    He died
    After a long, full life? Otherwise feels like a bit of a 'do it because I can' kind of miracle, with all respect the man upstairs.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095

    kle4 said:

    Paddy Ashdown was that rare breed of politician: one who'd actually killed people with his own hands rather than simply doing it via public policy as is the Tories' preferred way of killing undesirables.

    How classy.
    I mean it as a good thing. Ashdown didn't have the luxury of plausible deniability for the people he killed. Not like, say, the Tory frontbench who when they kill people don't have to see the life flicker from the eyes of the people they've starved to death, let die of hypothermia in a gutter or get deported back to homophobic regimes to be tortured and murdered.

    Most politicians prefer to kill people via intermediaries.

    Ashdown was special forces. When he killed you, he looked you in the eyes as he slit your throat.

    Don't you slit the throat from behind? Kinda loses the required element of surprise otherwise.....
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,533
    Mortimer said:

    Sad news indeed about Paddy Ashdown.

    Are we expecting any polls tonight?

    Sad indeed, I met Paddy on one of his book tours. He was a great raconteur but also plenty of time to chat in the bar. He is a large part of why I joined the LDs.

    On polling, I did a Yougov on Friday, so that should be out soon.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    Sad news indeed about Paddy Ashdown.

    Are we expecting any polls tonight?

    Sad indeed, I met Paddy on one of his book tours. He was a great raconteur but also plenty of time to chat in the bar. He is a large part of why I joined the LDs.

    On polling, I did a Yougov on Friday, so that should be out soon.
    How many PBers are on polling panels? And you wonder why they struggle getting a balanced sample :p
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,645
    edited December 2018
    She should show some courage given Corbyn is advancing official party policy isn't he? An have the courage to state what she means - that she thinks the best thing would be parliament votes we remain, but since she doesn't think it will, we need a public vote. If it is the best, indeed only, option, then asking permission is not necessary.
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    Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634
    kle4 said:

    She should show some courage given Corbyn is advancing official party policy isn't he? An have the courage to state what she means - that she thinks the best thing would be parliament votes we remain, but since she doesn't think it will, we need a public vote. If it is the best, indeed only, option, then asking permission is not necessary.
    Another MP who doesn't want to do her job.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,533
    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    Sad news indeed about Paddy Ashdown.

    Are we expecting any polls tonight?

    Sad indeed, I met Paddy on one of his book tours. He was a great raconteur but also plenty of time to chat in the bar. He is a large part of why I joined the LDs.

    On polling, I did a Yougov on Friday, so that should be out soon.
    How many PBers are on polling panels? And you wonder why they struggle getting a balanced sample :p
    And yet they were more accurate than phone polls for Brexit.

    Indeed, have phone polls become obselete? I dont think that we have had one in ages.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    What happens if you didn’t grow up on a street?
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,799

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    Paddy Ashdown was that rare breed of politician: one who'd actually killed people with his own hands rather than simply doing it via public policy as is the Tories' preferred way of killing undesirables.

    How classy.
    I mean it as a good thing. Ashdown didn't have the luxury of plausible deniability for the people he killed. Not like, say, the Tory frontbench who when they kill people don't have to see the life flicker from the eyes of the people they've starved to death, let die of hypothermia in a gutter or get deported back to homophobic regimes to be tortured and murdered.

    Most politicians prefer to kill people via intermediaries.

    Ashdown was special forces. When he killed you, he looked you in the eyes as he slit your throat.

    Yes, politicians just love killing people.
    I mean, they do kill an awful lot of people. Mostly it's incompetence rather than active malice, such as the huge increase in the numbers of rough sleepers dying:

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/apr/11/deaths-of-uk-homeless-people-more-than-double-in-five-years

    Or, say, the huge jump in suicide associated with Universal Credit.

    It's not that the Tories are actively trying to kill you, more that they don't give enough of a shit to lift a finger to stop you from dying.

    The special exemption here is Theresa May's personal interventions to ensure LGBT people got deported to murderously homophobic regimes. She knew those people would be killed, and she did it anyway.
    Weak_trolling
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,533
    Charles said:

    What happens if you didn’t grow up on a street?
    The name of your castle should suffice.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,578
    edited December 2018
    Donny43 said:

    kle4 said:

    She should show some courage given Corbyn is advancing official party policy isn't he? An have the courage to state what she means - that she thinks the best thing would be parliament votes we remain, but since she doesn't think it will, we need a public vote. If it is the best, indeed only, option, then asking permission is not necessary.
    Another MP who doesn't want to do her job.
    In what way is she not doing her job?
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,578
    Charles said:

    What happens if you didn’t grow up on a street?
    Just pretend your grandad was Jacob, you grew up in Rees Road and your headmaster was Mr Mogg.
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    kle4 said:

    She should show some courage given Corbyn is advancing official party policy isn't he? An have the courage to state what she means - that she thinks the best thing would be parliament votes we remain, but since she doesn't think it will, we need a public vote. If it is the best, indeed only, option, then asking permission is not necessary.
    Indeed. Like so many. Labour MPs who don’t like what Corbyn is doing, she is just noise on the system and will do nothing.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,645
    edited December 2018

    Donny43 said:

    kle4 said:

    She should show some courage given Corbyn is advancing official party policy isn't he? An have the courage to state what she means - that she thinks the best thing would be parliament votes we remain, but since she doesn't think it will, we need a public vote. If it is the best, indeed only, option, then asking permission is not necessary.
    Another MP who doesn't want to do her job.
    I what way , in your opinion, is she not doing her job?
    If no deal is unconscionable, and we do not have time to get a new deal, and the current deal is unacceptable, then MPs do not need to consult us again to do what they think needs doing, they can just remain. No that would not be easy, and there might be a cost. But if she believes that it is ok if the public chooses no deal or the deal in a referendum (I don't know what question she favours) then clearly she does not actually believe those options are unacceptable. I choose to believe she does believe those options are unacceptable, so she wants to give cover to what she thinks is the right call, rather than say what she seems to actually want, and just remain.

    Edit: So in terms of doing her job, she does not want to actually take the decision to go against the first vote, even if it is the only option available. She wants the people to give license to do it. But they might not do as she wants.

    Now, she won't be given the chance by parliament to just vote for remain, but if that is what she actually wants, she should just say so. Something is either unacceptable or it isn't, and if no deal and the deal are not, well the course is clear.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    William Kimberley-Fricker
    A career in South African politics beckons
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Charles said:

    What happens if you didn’t grow up on a street?

    Or if your headmaster's name is already hyphenated?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,645
    Charles said:

    What happens if you didn’t grow up on a street?
    You ask the butler where he grew up.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,645
    Scott_P said:

    Charles said:

    What happens if you didn’t grow up on a street?

    Or if your headmaster's name is already hyphenated?
    All the better - more hyphen's is cool.
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    Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634
    kle4 said:

    Donny43 said:

    kle4 said:

    She should show some courage given Corbyn is advancing official party policy isn't he? An have the courage to state what she means - that she thinks the best thing would be parliament votes we remain, but since she doesn't think it will, we need a public vote. If it is the best, indeed only, option, then asking permission is not necessary.
    Another MP who doesn't want to do her job.
    I what way , in your opinion, is she not doing her job?
    If no deal is unconscionable, and we do not have time to get a new deal, and the current deal is unacceptable, then MPs do not need to consult us again to do what they think needs doing, they can just remain. No that would not be easy, and there might be a cost. But if she believes that it is ok if the public chooses no deal or the deal in a referendum (I don't know what question she favours) then clearly she does not actually believe those options are unacceptable. I choose to believe she does believe those options are unacceptable, so she wants to give cover to what she thinks is the right call, rather than say what she seems to actually want, and just remain.
    Precisely.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    tlg86 said:

    Floater said:

    This looks potentially quite significant ...
    https://twitter.com/labourlewis/status/1076507205820665856?s=21

    Amusingly anti semitism they can put up with - but brexit?/ hell no!!
    Leavers, on the other hand, are entirely relaxed about xenophobia.
    What rubbish. Wanting immigration control and being xenophobic are very different. Makes you look stupid to suggest otherwise.
    Leavers won their referendum by untruly claiming that millions of Muslims were poised to descend on Britain. Slice it whatever way you like, that’s xenophobia.
    Interesting question. Say Turkey wasn't a Muslim country, do you think Vote Leave would have ignored it?
    Do you think Turkey was chosen by accident? How sweet.
    They had an issue with Albania too...

    https://twitter.com/vote_leave/status/724695956688637953
    So 2 Muslim, 3 orthodox countries.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,578
    kle4 said:

    Donny43 said:

    kle4 said:

    She should show some courage given Corbyn is advancing official party policy isn't he? An have the courage to state what she means - that she thinks the best thing would be parliament votes we remain, but since she doesn't think it will, we need a public vote. If it is the best, indeed only, option, then asking permission is not necessary.
    Another MP who doesn't want to do her job.
    In what way is she not doing her job?
    If no deal is unconscionable, and we do not have time to get a new deal, and the current deal is unacceptable, then MPs do not need to consult us again to do what they think needs doing, they can just remain. No that would not be easy, and there might be a cost. But if she believes that it is ok if the public chooses no deal or the deal in a referendum (I don't know what question she favours) then clearly she does not actually believe those options are unacceptable. I choose to believe she does believe those options are unacceptable, so she wants to give cover to what she thinks is the right call, rather than say what she seems to actually want, and just remain.
    I think it's perfectly reasonable for those MPs who want us to Remain to propose another referendum to get the countries backing. You may like her to do something else but she can't be accused of not doing her job just because she does not do what you would like.

    As a Remainer myself, I do not think we should Remain without another referendum.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,533

    Charles said:

    What happens if you didn’t grow up on a street?
    Just pretend your grandad was Jacob, you grew up in Rees Road and your headmaster was Mr Mogg.
    Often posh candidates prefer to dress down for elections, Tony Blair, Tony Benn and Nancy Mogg spring to mind.

    Double barrelled names do tend to be found at both ends of the social spectrum though, often signifying unmarried parents.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,578
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    Charles said:

    What happens if you didn’t grow up on a street?

    Or if your headmaster's name is already hyphenated?
    All the better - more hyphen's is cool.
    So are fewer apostrophes :wink:
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    New thread
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,645

    kle4 said:

    Donny43 said:

    kle4 said:

    She should show some courage given Corbyn is advancing official party policy isn't he? An have the courage to state what she means - that she thinks the best thing would be parliament votes we remain, but since she doesn't think it will, we need a public vote. If it is the best, indeed only, option, then asking permission is not necessary.
    Another MP who doesn't want to do her job.
    In what way is she not doing her job?
    If no deal is unconscionable, and we do not have time to get a new deal, and the current deal is unacceptable, then MPs do not need to consult us again to do what they think needs doing, they can just remain. No that would not be easy, and there might be a cost. But if she believes that it is ok if the public chooses no deal or the deal in a referendum (I don't know what question she favours) then clearly she does not actually believe those options are unacceptable. I choose to believe she does believe those options are unacceptable, so she wants to give cover to what she thinks is the right call, rather than say what she seems to actually want, and just remain.
    I think it's perfectly reasonable for those MPs who want us to Remain to propose another referendum to get the countries backing. You may like her to do something else but she can't be accused of not doing her job just because she does not do what you would like.

    As a Remainer myself, I do not think we should Remain without another referendum.
    I was not the one saying she was not doing her job, but I don't think it an unreasonable accusation either. For me the key when judging the honesty of MPs when they call for a referendum is how much they bleat about the unacceptability of no deal and the deal. If both of them are horrendous and soul destroying, they cannot in my mind justify saying 'Oh, but if the people pass it by 50%+1 then that is fine'. Not after saying how bad no deal and the deal are. She may be one who is being honest, but others, who cry so much about no deal and the deal as unacceptable, and talk about a referendum because people have 'changed their minds'? They are not being very honest I think. Either they do not believe what they say about no deal and the deal, or they are just using them as excuses to do what they think needs doing. At least Adonis is clear about what he wants.

    I do support a vote because, sadly, I don't see parliament breaking the deadlock, but if someone truly believes the options already before us cannot be accepted? No, they are posturing and want the vote purely for their favoured option.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,578
    Foxy said:

    Charles said:

    What happens if you didn’t grow up on a street?
    Just pretend your grandad was Jacob, you grew up in Rees Road and your headmaster was Mr Mogg.
    Often posh candidates prefer to dress down for elections, Tony Blair, Tony Benn and Nancy Mogg spring to mind.

    Double barrelled names do tend to be found at both ends of the social spectrum though, often signifying unmarried parents.
    I presume Sixtus Dominic Boniface Christopher Rees-Mogg will simplify his to Sixtus Dominic Boniface Rees-Mogg when standing in the 2040 GE.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    kle4 said:

    Paddy Ashdown was that rare breed of politician: one who'd actually killed people with his own hands rather than simply doing it via public policy as is the Tories' preferred way of killing undesirables.

    How classy.
    I mean it as a good thing. Ashdown didn't have the luxury of plausible deniability for the people he killed. Not like, say, the Tory frontbench who when they kill people don't have to see the life flicker from the eyes of the people they've starved to death, let die of hypothermia in a gutter or get deported back to homophobic regimes to be tortured and murdered.

    Most politicians prefer to kill people via intermediaries.

    Ashdown was special forces. When he killed you, he looked you in the eyes as he slit your throat.

    You stand behind someone to slit their throat...
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited December 2018
    kle4 said:

    Charles said:

    kle4 said:



    Edit: Also, what happened to Lazarus after his comeback?

    He died
    After a long, full life? Otherwise feels like a bit of a 'do it because I can' kind of miracle, with all respect the man upstairs.
    He became a bishop dying peacefully in Cyprus (Eastern & Orthodox tradition) or being beheaded by Domitian in France (Catholic tradition)

    https://www.scross.co.za/2014/04/what-happened-to-lazarus-after-his-resurrection/
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Foxy said:

    Charles said:

    What happens if you didn’t grow up on a street?
    The name of your castle should suffice.
    It’s more of a crenellated house than a castle...

    But Quintin Park-Anderson has a nice ring to it
This discussion has been closed.