Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » My Christmas eve bet that TMay will still be PM at the end of

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited December 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » My Christmas eve bet that TMay will still be PM at the end of next year

On the day of this month’s confidence vote amongst Tory MPs on Theresa May the PM declared that it was her intention not to lead the party into the next general election. If we stick with the Fixed Term Parliament Act timetable that means any time before the spring of 2022.

Read the full story here


«134

Comments

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 25,512

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    What makes you think we don't need all of them?

    We have our own unskilled and unemployed eligible to benefits without importing more and entitling them to our benefits too. I have no qualms with skilled, working migrants who support themselves but I see no reason to import people to claim welfare.
    Why do you assume that unskilled immigrants aren't going to work and support themselves?

    Are you arguing that there is no need in the UK for unskilled labour, or what?
    If the unskilled immigrants can work and support themselves with zero rights to in-work benefits then I have no qualms with that as I said.

    No I am saying there is a supply of unskilled labour already and we should apply the economics of supply and demand to that. I see no need to artificially inflate our supply of unskilled labour.

    If a company wants to hire unskilled labour then they can compete based on supply and demand with other companies to attract that labour from the unskilled we already have and not import new unskilled labour.

    There is no divine right to have vacancies filled. If you can't fill a vacancy with the unskilled labour that is already present you can either compete better (increasing wages), work smarter (be more productive so you don't need as much labour) or some other combination. That is how the economy grows per capita. That is how our productivity improves. That is supply and demand. The best employers should be able to recruit ultimately.

    As an example replacing automated mechanical car washes which use no labour with hand car washes which are staffed by unskilled labourers potentially claiming tax credits being paid minimum wage is not progress.

    Hand washing cars (for payment) is a backward step as far as UK productivity is concerned.
    Absolutely. And it's a completely unnecessary job. The economy would survive just fine if we machine washed for payment or hand washed ourselves our vehicles.
    That makes literally no sense. You are basically saying that you can't be trusted to choose how your car should be washed, and the government should make that choice for you.

    By all means remove the subsidies on immigration, but the government shouldn't be making minor economic decisions for its citizens. If people preferred an automatic car wash, or it was meaningfully cheaper, then they would choose it.
  • First (on topic) like the Tories at GE2022*

    *T&C apply.

    Agree with OGH that May is no quitter - I suspect in the end the Tories will do what they did to Thatcher and oust her - but she has to become a liability first.

    Off topic - he’s tweeting again!



    No mention of the US’s allies, the Kurds. Odd that.
  • First (on topic) like the Tories at GE2022*

    *T&C apply.

    Agree with OGH that May is no quitter - I suspect in the end the Tories will do what they did to Thatcher and oust her - but she has to become a liability first.

    She might be already. Much is made of Corbyn's drag on Labour but pb Tories from time to time remind us there is a booming economy with record employment and tax receipts. If so, then surely there ought to be a huge Conservative lead in the polls, but there isn't. Is Theresa May the reason?
  • First (on topic) like the Tories at GE2022*

    *T&C apply.

    Agree with OGH that May is no quitter - I suspect in the end the Tories will do what they did to Thatcher and oust her - but she has to become a liability first.

    She might be already. Much is made of Corbyn's drag on Labour but pb Tories from time to time remind us there is a booming economy with record employment and tax receipts. If so, then surely there ought to be a huge Conservative lead in the polls, but there isn't. Is Theresa May the reason?
    Or infighting among the ranks?

    Either way we’ll only really know when Labour replace Corbyn - which may have got closer after this weekend.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,144
    The Corbyn being a drag seems to be a common line used against Corbyn but very little evidence is provided for it.

    Going back to the election and Corbyn himself as well as the manifesto/policies which is a result of Corbyn leading the party were responsible for a huge percentage of the votes Labour received in the election, 41% for specifically that according to YouGov, and other categories which overlap with Corbyn and his policies make up a decent percentage of the rest.

    In terms of vote share Corbyn led Labour saw the biggest Labour increase since Atlee in WW2, which itself was rather special circumstances. The polling on Labour has largely stayed around that level or a little under despite some quite negative criticism in the media since then.

    That another Labour leader could have Labour doing so well right now is up for question let alone have the party actually performing better. The hypothetical new leader wouldn't have the anti Corbyn press on their side in the same way they do now. Corbyn wouldn't be a problem anymore, they would be the problem. They would be the one with crazy left wing policies that wouldn't work.

    They could avoid some of that my dashing to the right with the Labour party... that party isn't winning anywhere near the support of the current Labour party though.

    On topic, whilst there do seem to be good reasons to argue she will go nobody should be too surprised if May is still in charge by the end of next year.


  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,177
    IF - planet-sized IF - May gets her deal through, it will be on the back of conditional support from those who hate her deal but see no viable alternative. But their price will be that a new leader is installed by the membership, in place in time to start the negotiations of the trade agreement with the EU. No way is May allowed to supervise that.

    If May does not get her deal through, then the kaleidoscope gets a good shake and the view will be very different anyway.

    The 12 months security of tenure is a red herring. If she doesn't have the backing of Cabinet, she is a goner. And I don't see a route to her having that backing in 12 months time. Not when so many of them want her job.

    As for keeping Boris Johnson out of Number 10, the longer she stays, the more he risks being vindicated in his vassal-state assessment of the post-May's Deal UK. And the more likely the membership are to see him as the person they want supervising our trading arrangements with the EU.

    Assuming he wants the job. His saying he would not stand immediately pulls the rug out from under May, as the Stop Boris rationale for her limpet existence runs out of road. If so - let the games begin.
  • The Corbyn being a drag seems to be a common line used against Corbyn but very little evidence is provided for it

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/0tfrv277zr/YG Trackers - Best Prime Minister.pdf
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,144

    The Corbyn being a drag seems to be a common line used against Corbyn but very little evidence is provided for it

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/0tfrv277zr/YG Trackers - Best Prime Minister.pdf
    So Corbyn is a drag on the Labour vote because we should have Mrs May as leader?

    I don't think Labour voters would vote for Labour with Mrs May as leader, do we have evidence of a different leader of Labour boosting their vote or any kind of evidence at all of the repeated Corbyn being a drag on the Labour vote line?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 11,584
    edited December 2018
    On Theresa May's departure, two known unknowns are, first, will she have time to reflect and change her mind during the long walk to church at Christmas, away from day to day politics? Second, her deal still has no clear passage through the Commons (although many Conservatives might blink at the edge of the no deal cliff) and what if it falls?

    On the side of May staying is the consideration that whatever drove Theresa May to enter politics, as an activist, councillor, MP and now prime minister, Brexit was not it.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,595

    The Corbyn being a drag seems to be a common line used against Corbyn but very little evidence is provided for it

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/0tfrv277zr/YG Trackers - Best Prime Minister.pdf
    Just do a few vox pops mate, ask the ordinary "man" in the street. Most think Corbyn is a Cnut of epic proportions.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,144
    Thought this was interesting, from link in tweet in Carlotta's post.

    _______________________________
    In total, Labour needs to gain 64 new seats (and retain its current ones) to win an overall majority. The smoothest path runs through the 76 seats where Labour is behind the opposition by less than 10 percentage points. 42 of these voted Leave (with a 59% Leave vote, on average), and 36 voted Remain (with a 61% Remain vote, on average).
    ______________________________

    This will have different effects depending on when or why the election is. If May holds one soon in which she is pushing her deal then that isn't something leavers are not united behind.

    When you think of polling changes since the referendum I suspect there is probably a slight remain lean overall in Labours target seats but not an obvious fight Brexit bonus waiting for us. It would suggest Corbyn's strategy is sensible for now.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,144
    edited December 2018

    The Corbyn being a drag seems to be a common line used against Corbyn but very little evidence is provided for it

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/0tfrv277zr/YG Trackers - Best Prime Minister.pdf
    Just do a few vox pops mate, ask the ordinary "man" in the street. Most think Corbyn is a Cnut of epic proportions.
    We had these before the election and Labour had a massive vote share rise...

    There is a small chance that asking a random man in a street a question might not produce a representative answer... specifically if ordinary man in the street is repeatedly white people over the age of 50, many of who don't like him*... but they mostly already have their own party called the Conservatives. Labour is the party for many of us who don't qualify as ordinary man in the street.

    *So it is representative but of its own group only not the rest of us.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 25,196
    edited December 2018

    The Corbyn being a drag seems to be a common line used against Corbyn but very little evidence is provided for it

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/0tfrv277zr/YG Trackers - Best Prime Minister.pdf
    Just do a few vox pops mate, ask the ordinary "man" in the street. Most think Corbyn is a Cnut of epic proportions.
    We had these before the election and Labour had a massive vote share rise...

    There is a small chance that asking a random man in a street a question might not produce a representative answer... specifically if ordinary man in the street is repeatedly white people over the age of 50, many of who don't like him*... but they already have their own party called the Conservatives. Labour is the party for those that don't qualify as ordinary man in the street.

    *So it is representative but of its own group only not the rest of us.
    Ipsos MORI have the longest running series asking if people are satisfied or dissatisfied with party leaders’ performance. Jeremy Corbyn is currently at minus 32%, with just 27% satisfied.

    40% of Labour supporters are dissatisfied.
  • On topic, the bet looks fair to me but no better than fair. In its favour, Theresa May has strong structural advantages. Against it, this year is going to be immensely destructive of political unity on all sides.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,144

    The Corbyn being a drag seems to be a common line used against Corbyn but very little evidence is provided for it

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/0tfrv277zr/YG Trackers - Best Prime Minister.pdf
    Just do a few vox pops mate, ask the ordinary "man" in the street. Most think Corbyn is a Cnut of epic proportions.
    We had these before the election and Labour had a massive vote share rise...

    There is a small chance that asking a random man in a street a question might not produce a representative answer... specifically if ordinary man in the street is repeatedly white people over the age of 50, many of who don't like him*... but they already have their own party called the Conservatives. Labour is the party for those that don't qualify as ordinary man in the street.

    *So it is representative but of its own group only not the rest of us.
    Ipsos MORI have the longest running series asking if people are satisfied or dissatisfied with party leaders’ performance. Jeremy Corbyn is currently at minus 32%, with just 27% satisfied.

    40% of Labour supporters are dissatisfied.
    I imagine they were before the previous election as well.

    Yet when the campaign starts and people get to hear Labours offer because the rules kick in around TV coverage people start reading it and liking it. In the intervening years between elections the groups supportive of Corbyn are more likely to switch off or become 'Don't knows' and the coverage of Labour and Corbyn in the media is overwhelmingly negative.

    It is all well and good to assert that Corbyn actually drags Labour down but our actual electoral evidence shows the opposite, we have very little proof that a different Labour leader would be doing as well let alone even better.

    It may be convincing if Labour were crashing under Corbyn but it is exactly the opposite, Labour looked to have turned around and started going in the right direction electorally. Peoples complaints are the political direction.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 12,183

    The Corbyn being a drag seems to be a common line used against Corbyn but very little evidence is provided for it

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/0tfrv277zr/YG Trackers - Best Prime Minister.pdf
    Just do a few vox pops mate, ask the ordinary "man" in the street. Most think Corbyn is a Cnut of epic proportions.
    We had these before the election and Labour had a massive vote share rise...

    There is a small chance that asking a random man in a street a question might not produce a representative answer... specifically if ordinary man in the street is repeatedly white people over the age of 50, many of who don't like him*... but they mostly already have their own party called the Conservatives. Labour is the party for many of us who don't qualify as ordinary man in the street.

    *So it is representative but of its own group only not the rest of us.
    Corbyn’s personal poll ratings (around -40%) are very close to,the low he achieved before the spike around the 2017 election.
    You may choose to believe he will se a similar spike in the future, but I think he can no longer be the blank slate on which everyone can pin their hopes and dreams. His temporising on Brexit seems to hav e sunk in with the electorate. And the very recent efforts to prevent a referendum (which is an alternative called for by Labour policy) have seriously angered a significant number of supporters.

  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 3,526
    rcs1000 said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    What makes you think we don't need all of them?

    We have our own unskilled and unemployed eligible to benefits without importing more and entitling them to our benefits too. I have no qualms with skilled, working migrants who support themselves but I see no reason to import people to claim welfare.
    Why do you assume that unskilled immigrants aren't going to work and support themselves?

    Are you arguing that there is no need in the UK for unskilled labour, or what?
    If the unskilled immigrants can work and support themselves with zero rights to in-work benefits then I have no qualms with that as I said.

    No I am saying there is a supply of unskilled labour already and we should apply the economics of supply and demand to that. I see no need to artificially inflate our supply of unskilled labour.

    If a company wants to hire unskilled labour then they can compete based on supply and demand with other companies to attract that labour from the unskilled we already have and not import new unskilled labour.

    There is no divine right to have vacancies filled. If you can't fill a vacancy with the unskilled labour that is already present you can either compete better (increasing wages), work smarter (be more productive so you don't need as much labour) or some other combination. That is how the economy grows per capita. That is how our productivity improves. That is supply and demand. The best employers should be able to recruit ultimately.

    As an example replacing automated mechanical car washes which use no labour with hand car washes which are staffed by unskilled labourers potentially claiming tax credits being paid minimum wage is not progress.

    Hand washing cars (for payment) is a backward step as far as UK productivity is concerned.
    Absolutely. And it's a completely unnecessary job. The economy would survive just fine if we machine washed for payment or hand washed ourselves our vehicles.
    That makes literally no sense. You are basically saying that you can't be trusted to choose how your car should be washed, and the government should make that choice for you.

    By all means remove the subsidies on immigration, but the government shouldn't be making minor economic decisions for its citizens. If people preferred an automatic car wash, or it was meaningfully cheaper, then they would choose it.
    Machine car washes trash your fucking clear coat anyway. Mind you, so do grit filled rags wielded by Albanians on tax credits.
  • The Corbyn being a drag seems to be a common line used against Corbyn but very little evidence is provided for it

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/0tfrv277zr/YG Trackers - Best Prime Minister.pdf
    Just do a few vox pops mate, ask the ordinary "man" in the street. Most think Corbyn is a Cnut of epic proportions.
    We had these before the election and Labour had a massive vote share rise...

    There is a small chance that asking a random man in a street a question might not produce a representative answer... specifically if ordinary man in the street is repeatedly white people over the age of 50, many of who don't like him*... but they already have their own party called the Conservatives. Labour is the party for those that don't qualify as ordinary man in the street.

    *So it is representative but of its own group only not the rest of us.
    Ipsos MORI have the longest running series asking if people are satisfied or dissatisfied with party leaders’ performance. Jeremy Corbyn is currently at minus 32%, with just 27% satisfied.

    40% of Labour supporters are dissatisfied.
    I imagine they were before the previous election as well.

    Yet when the campaign starts and people get to hear Labours offer because the rules kick in around TV coverage people start reading it and liking it. In the intervening years between elections the groups supportive of Corbyn are more likely to switch off or become 'Don't knows' and the coverage of Labour and Corbyn in the media is overwhelmingly negative.

    It is all well and good to assert that Corbyn actually drags Labour down but our actual electoral evidence shows the opposite, we have very little proof that a different Labour leader would be doing as well let alone even better.

    It may be convincing if Labour were crashing under Corbyn but it is exactly the opposite, Labour looked to have turned around and started going in the right direction electorally. Peoples complaints are the political direction.

    That is blind faith. You’re entitled to it, of course.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,144
    Nigelb said:

    The Corbyn being a drag seems to be a common line used against Corbyn but very little evidence is provided for it

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/0tfrv277zr/YG Trackers - Best Prime Minister.pdf
    Just do a few vox pops mate, ask the ordinary "man" in the street. Most think Corbyn is a Cnut of epic proportions.
    We had these before the election and Labour had a massive vote share rise...

    There is a small chance that asking a random man in a street a question might not produce a representative answer... specifically if ordinary man in the street is repeatedly white people over the age of 50, many of who don't like him*... but they mostly already have their own party called the Conservatives. Labour is the party for many of us who don't qualify as ordinary man in the street.

    *So it is representative but of its own group only not the rest of us.
    Corbyn’s personal poll ratings (around -40%) are very close to,the low he achieved before the spike around the 2017 election.
    You may choose to believe he will se a similar spike in the future, but I think he can no longer be the blank slate on which everyone can pin their hopes and dreams. His temporising on Brexit seems to hav e sunk in with the electorate. And the very recent efforts to prevent a referendum (which is an alternative called for by Labour policy) have seriously angered a significant number of supporters.

    The original conversation was about Corbyn bringing down Labour which looking at the polling and the evidence behind why people voted Labour seems to go against the evidence.

    I didn't actually state what would happen with Corbyn's personal popularity numbers but I do suspect the right wing media campaign against him will somewhat fall apart when met with the reality of Corbyn once again, much like last time. There are a decent sized group that are dead set against him but referring back to what I was originally talking about in terms of Labour that doesn't actually matter so much. Most of the people who really don't like him are Conservative voters who were going to vote Conservative anyway.

    My questioning of vox pops where angry gammon call Corbyn a cnut of epic proportions as unrepresentative is entirely valid, they are representative of the types of people they pick.

    The same vox pop method of discovering what was happening found plenty of 'I've always voted Labour but I can't vote Labour again' before the 2017 election. What happened?

    Labours vote went up hugely. They are unrepresentative.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,595

    The Corbyn being a drag seems to be a common line used against Corbyn but very little evidence is provided for it

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/0tfrv277zr/YG Trackers - Best Prime Minister.pdf
    Just do a few vox pops mate, ask the ordinary "man" in the street. Most think Corbyn is a Cnut of epic proportions.
    We had these before the election and Labour had a massive vote share rise...

    There is a small chance that asking a random man in a street a question might not produce a representative answer... specifically if ordinary man in the street is repeatedly white people over the age of 50, many of who don't like him*... but they already have their own party called the Conservatives. Labour is the party for those that don't qualify as ordinary man in the street.

    *So it is representative but of its own group only not the rest of us.
    Ipsos MORI have the longest running series asking if people are satisfied or dissatisfied with party leaders’ performance. Jeremy Corbyn is currently at minus 32%, with just 27% satisfied.

    40% of Labour supporters are dissatisfied.
    I imagine they were before the previous election as well.

    Yet when the campaign starts and people get to hear Labours offer because the rules kick in around TV coverage people start reading it and liking it. In the intervening years between elections the groups supportive of Corbyn are more likely to switch off or become 'Don't knows' and the coverage of Labour and Corbyn in the media is overwhelmingly negative.

    It is all well and good to assert that Corbyn actually drags Labour down but our actual electoral evidence shows the opposite, we have very little proof that a different Labour leader would be doing as well let alone even better.

    It may be convincing if Labour were crashing under Corbyn but it is exactly the opposite, Labour looked to have turned around and started going in the right direction electorally. Peoples complaints are the political direction.

    That is blind faith. You’re entitled to it, of course.
    +1
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,144

    Ipsos MORI have the longest running series asking if people are satisfied or dissatisfied with party leaders’ performance. Jeremy Corbyn is currently at minus 32%, with just 27% satisfied.

    40% of Labour supporters are dissatisfied.
    I imagine they were before the previous election as well.

    Yet when the campaign starts and people get to hear Labours offer because the rules kick in around TV coverage people start reading it and liking it. In the intervening years between elections the groups supportive of Corbyn are more likely to switch off or become 'Don't knows' and the coverage of Labour and Corbyn in the media is overwhelmingly negative.

    It is all well and good to assert that Corbyn actually drags Labour down but our actual electoral evidence shows the opposite, we have very little proof that a different Labour leader would be doing as well let alone even better.

    It may be convincing if Labour were crashing under Corbyn but it is exactly the opposite, Labour looked to have turned around and started going in the right direction electorally. Peoples complaints are the political direction.

    That is blind faith. You’re entitled to it, of course.
    Actually I think you'll find Labour and Corbyn were struggling before the last election campaign.

    Also I listened to an interesting episode of polling matters not long ago where they talked about the Don't Know groups tending to be younger and more female... groups that also tend Labour and Corbyn.

    There is also the lack of polling showing some great alertanate leader doing better. If it was so obvious why do we not have this proof? There was a poll a long time ago before GE17 when Corbyn was doing badly which showed him around the level or beating potential replacements.

    'Blind faith'

    hmm... I suspect yours is the blind faith, not only does the idea of Labour doing better under a different leader lack evidence it also seems to fly in the face of the evidence available.

    People want a different leader so they assert an electoral argument for doing so without actually doing any work to prove one.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 15,007
    One thing we know for sure of course is that what we confidently expect to happen between now and 29th March, let alone between now and the spring of 2022, or whenever the next election is, will NOT happen in the way we expect it to. We can also predict with a considerable degree of confidence that there will be at least one, and probably several 'black swan' events, even before the end of March.

    That is, of course, why gambling!
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 11,896
    Another year of May as PM? Given her skills at bringing the country together after another year with her as PM, her government will be governing a pile of rubble.

  • I imagine they were before the previous election as well.

    Yet when the campaign starts and people get to hear Labours offer because the rules kick in around TV coverage people start reading it and liking it. In the intervening years between elections the groups supportive of Corbyn are more likely to switch off or become 'Don't knows' and the coverage of Labour and Corbyn in the media is overwhelmingly negative.

    It is all well and good to assert that Corbyn actually drags Labour down but our actual electoral evidence shows the opposite, we have very little proof that a different Labour leader would be doing as well let alone even better.

    It may be convincing if Labour were crashing under Corbyn but it is exactly the opposite, Labour looked to have turned around and started going in the right direction electorally. Peoples complaints are the political direction.

    That is blind faith. You’re entitled to it, of course.
    Actually I think you'll find Labour and Corbyn were struggling before the last election campaign.

    Also I listened to an interesting episode of polling matters not long ago where they talked about the Don't Know groups tending to be younger and more female... groups that also tend Labour and Corbyn.

    There is also the lack of polling showing some great alertanate leader doing better. If it was so obvious why do we not have this proof? There was a poll a long time ago before GE17 when Corbyn was doing badly which showed him around the level or beating potential replacements.

    'Blind faith'

    hmm... I suspect yours is the blind faith, not only does the idea of Labour doing better under a different leader lack evidence it also seems to fly in the face of the evidence available.

    People want a different leader so they assert an electoral argument for doing so without actually doing any work to prove one.
    Your leader is polling appallingly, including among his own party’s supporters. Could he conceivably turn that around? Yes it’s possible. Is it to be expected? No not particularly. The fact that it happened once makes it a bit more likely and you will find me more open to the idea than most on here. But people are not goldfish - they’ve by and large formed their views of him now. He’s going to have to do something new to change them.

    In the meantime 2019 looks set to be a very busy political year. The fact of Jeremy Corbyn’s appalling unpopularity with the bulk of the population may well have consequences in the political decision-making process all by itself.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 18,648

    IF - planet-sized IF - May gets her deal through, it will be on the back of conditional support from those who hate her deal but see no viable alternative. But their price will be that a new leader is installed by the membership, in place in time to start the negotiations of the trade agreement with the EU. No way is May allowed to supervise that.

    If May does not get her deal through, then the kaleidoscope gets a good shake and the view will be very different anyway.

    The 12 months security of tenure is a red herring. If she doesn't have the backing of Cabinet, she is a goner. And I don't see a route to her having that backing in 12 months time. Not when so many of them want her job.

    As for keeping Boris Johnson out of Number 10, the longer she stays, the more he risks being vindicated in his vassal-state assessment of the post-May's Deal UK. And the more likely the membership are to see him as the person they want supervising our trading arrangements with the EU.

    Assuming he wants the job. His saying he would not stand immediately pulls the rug out from under May, as the Stop Boris rationale for her limpet existence runs out of road. If so - let the games begin.

    I cannot think of anyone less suited to the job of overseeing the hard grind of technical and detailed negotiations on trade than Boris. If the party has any sense they won't let such a decision anywhere near the members.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 18,648
    edited December 2018

    Thought this was interesting, from link in tweet in Carlotta's post.

    _______________________________
    In total, Labour needs to gain 64 new seats (and retain its current ones) to win an overall majority. The smoothest path runs through the 76 seats where Labour is behind the opposition by less than 10 percentage points. 42 of these voted Leave (with a 59% Leave vote, on average), and 36 voted Remain (with a 61% Remain vote, on average).
    ______________________________

    This will have different effects depending on when or why the election is. If May holds one soon in which she is pushing her deal then that isn't something leavers are not united behind.

    When you think of polling changes since the referendum I suspect there is probably a slight remain lean overall in Labours target seats but not an obvious fight Brexit bonus waiting for us. It would suggest Corbyn's strategy is sensible for now.

    What this "Labour Leave seats" analysis sometimes overlooks is that, generalising, in such seats the Leave voters are mostly the Tories, with Labour having most of the remainers. Thinking that winning such a seat means leaning to leave is mistaken if they stand to lose more of their existing support than they can pull across in compensation from the other side (edit/ and I doubt there are many of the latter still to win, anyway - certainly not by fence sitting. The Tory votes for the picking are their concerned remainers).

    Labour did particularly well last time by pulling in much of the previous and potential support from the LibDems. If they go chasing Leave voters that process could very easily unwind.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,144

    Your leader is polling appallingly, including among his own party’s supporters. Could he conceivably turn that around? Yes it’s possible. Is it to be expected? No not particularly. The fact that it happened once makes it a bit more likely and you will find me more open to the idea than most on here. But people are not goldfish - they’ve by and large formed their views of him now. He’s going to have to do something new to change them.

    In the meantime 2019 looks set to be a very busy political year. The fact of Jeremy Corbyn’s appalling unpopularity with the bulk of the population may well have consequences in the political decision-making process all by itself.
    He's the most popular Labour figure and one of the most popular politicians in the country...

    It doesn't matter if the entire Conservative and UKIP vote doesn't like him, or if half the Lib Dems can't stand him. The only thing that matter in terms him leading Labour being a plus or a negative is getting more people to vote Labour and on that count he has been successful and there is no evidence to suggest somebody else (note: Theresa May would not get as many votes as Labour leader) would do as well let alone better.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,595
    Jonathan said:

    Another year of May as PM? Given her skills at bringing the country together after another year with her as PM, her government will be governing a pile of rubble.

    Yet another Labour voter whose blind faith in support of Brown did leave the UK a pile of rubble.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,144
    IanB2 said:

    Thought this was interesting, from link in tweet in Carlotta's post.

    _______________________________
    In total, Labour needs to gain 64 new seats (and retain its current ones) to win an overall majority. The smoothest path runs through the 76 seats where Labour is behind the opposition by less than 10 percentage points. 42 of these voted Leave (with a 59% Leave vote, on average), and 36 voted Remain (with a 61% Remain vote, on average).
    ______________________________

    This will have different effects depending on when or why the election is. If May holds one soon in which she is pushing her deal then that isn't something leavers are not united behind.

    When you think of polling changes since the referendum I suspect there is probably a slight remain lean overall in Labours target seats but not an obvious fight Brexit bonus waiting for us. It would suggest Corbyn's strategy is sensible for now.

    What this "Labour Leave seats" analysis sometimes overlooks is that, generalising, in such seats the Leave voters are mostly the Tories, with Labour having most of the remainers. Thinking that winning such a seat means leaning to leave is mistaken if they stand to lose more of their existing support than they can pull across in compensation from the other side.

    Labour did particularly well last time by pulling in much of the previous and potential support from the LibDems. If they go chasing Leave voters that process could very easily unwind.
    I've made this point myself before, even in the leaviest seats Labour voters will be mostly remainers, pleasing leavers at the cost of annoying remainers isn't in Labours interest.

    In terms of Labour attracting those that didn't vote Labour I imagine there are more leavers than remainers that might be willing to do so in the seats Labour needs to win. Coming out for a 2nd referendum, if we do, too soon could put off those people.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 11,896

    Your leader is polling appallingly, including among his own party’s supporters. Could he conceivably turn that around? Yes it’s possible. Is it to be expected? No not particularly. The fact that it happened once makes it a bit more likely and you will find me more open to the idea than most on here. But people are not goldfish - they’ve by and large formed their views of him now. He’s going to have to do something new to change them.

    In the meantime 2019 looks set to be a very busy political year. The fact of Jeremy Corbyn’s appalling unpopularity with the bulk of the population may well have consequences in the political decision-making process all by itself.
    He's the most popular Labour figure and one of the most popular politicians in the country...

    It doesn't matter if the entire Conservative and UKIP vote doesn't like him, or if half the Lib Dems can't stand him. The only thing that matter in terms him leading Labour being a plus or a negative is getting more people to vote Labour and on that count he has been successful and there is no evidence to suggest somebody else (note: Theresa May would not get as many votes as Labour leader) would do as well let alone better.
    He does need Labour voters to vote for him. He has just alienated millions of us.
  • Your leader is polling appallingly, including among his own party’s supporters. Could he conceivably turn that around? Yes it’s possible. Is it to be expected? No not particularly. The fact that it happened once makes it a bit more likely and you will find me more open to the idea than most on here. But people are not goldfish - they’ve by and large formed their views of him now. He’s going to have to do something new to change them.

    In the meantime 2019 looks set to be a very busy political year. The fact of Jeremy Corbyn’s appalling unpopularity with the bulk of the population may well have consequences in the political decision-making process all by itself.
    He's the most popular Labour figure and one of the most popular politicians in the country...

    It doesn't matter if the entire Conservative and UKIP vote doesn't like him, or if half the Lib Dems can't stand him. The only thing that matter in terms him leading Labour being a plus or a negative is getting more people to vote Labour and on that count he has been successful and there is no evidence to suggest somebody else (note: Theresa May would not get as many votes as Labour leader) would do as well let alone better.
    27% are satisfied with his performance. 40% of Labour supporters are dissatisfied with his performance. These are terrible figures however you slice them.

    Labour are polling ok because the Conservatives are truly appalling. But even then they lag the Tories in mid term against a government that barely exists. You should consider the possibility that your hero is the problem.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 11,896

    Jonathan said:

    Another year of May as PM? Given her skills at bringing the country together after another year with her as PM, her government will be governing a pile of rubble.

    Yet another Labour voter whose blind faith in support of Brown did leave the UK a pile of rubble.
    May makes Brown look like Churchill.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 18,172
    @TheJezziah a lot of words from you this morning.

    Didn’t win the last general election though, now, did you?
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,144

    Your leader is polling appallingly, including among his own party’s supporters. Could he conceivably turn that around? Yes it’s possible. Is it to be expected? No not particularly. The fact that it happened once makes it a bit more likely and you will find me more open to the idea than most on here. But people are not goldfish - they’ve by and large formed their views of him now. He’s going to have to do something new to change them.

    In the meantime 2019 looks set to be a very busy political year. The fact of Jeremy Corbyn’s appalling unpopularity with the bulk of the population may well have consequences in the political decision-making process all by itself.
    He's the most popular Labour figure and one of the most popular politicians in the country...

    It doesn't matter if the entire Conservative and UKIP vote doesn't like him, or if half the Lib Dems can't stand him. The only thing that matter in terms him leading Labour being a plus or a negative is getting more people to vote Labour and on that count he has been successful and there is no evidence to suggest somebody else (note: Theresa May would not get as many votes as Labour leader) would do as well let alone better.
    27% are satisfied with his performance. 40% of Labour supporters are dissatisfied with his performance. These are terrible figures however you slice them.

    Labour are polling ok because the Conservatives are truly appalling. But even then they lag the Tories in mid term against a government that barely exists. You should consider the possibility that your hero is the problem.
    A large section (Labour) are permanently dissatisfied, that didn't stop Labours vote rising.

    As for the electorate at large, people are partisan, look at America and how awful Trump is but he and the Republicans still have massive support like the Tories and May still retain support here. The constant negative media doesn't help, but it is something that thanks to the TV rules changes in election time. There is also more attention paid to policies where Labour polls well.

    Also people keep avoiding how you even replace all the votes lost by replacing Corbyn before you even go about getting more. At some point you have to consider that whilst he wouldn't be your first choice there is a reason why Corbyn keeps doing better than he should.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,595
    edited December 2018
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Another year of May as PM? Given her skills at bringing the country together after another year with her as PM, her government will be governing a pile of rubble.

    Yet another Labour voter whose blind faith in support of Brown did leave the UK a pile of rubble.
    May makes Brown look like Churchill.
    I don't recall Churchill being responsible for destroying the British economy and employees pensions in the process.
  • Your leader is polling appallingly, including among his own party’s supporters. Could he conceivably turn that around? Yes it’s possible. Is it to be expected? No not particularly. The fact that it happened once makes it a bit more likely and you will find me more open to the idea than most on here. But people are not goldfish - they’ve by and large formed their views of him now. He’s going to have to do something new to change them.

    In the meantime 2019 looks set to be a very busy political year. The fact of Jeremy Corbyn’s appalling unpopularity with the bulk of the population may well have consequences in the political decision-making process all by itself.
    He's the most popular Labour figure and one of the most popular politicians in the country...

    It doesn't matter if the entire Conservative and UKIP vote doesn't like him, or if half the Lib Dems can't stand him. The only thing that matter in terms him leading Labour being a plus or a negative is getting more people to vote Labour and on that count he has been successful and there is no evidence to suggest somebody else (note: Theresa May would not get as many votes as Labour leader) would do as well let alone better.
    27% are satisfied with his performance. 40% of Labour supporters are dissatisfied with his performance. These are terrible figures however you slice them.

    Labour are polling ok because the Conservatives are truly appalling. But even then they lag the Tories in mid term against a government that barely exists. You should consider the possibility that your hero is the problem.
    A large section (Labour) are permanently dissatisfied, that didn't stop Labours vote rising.

    As for the electorate at large, people are partisan, look at America and how awful Trump is but he and the Republicans still have massive support like the Tories and May still retain support here. The constant negative media doesn't help, but it is something that thanks to the TV rules changes in election time. There is also more attention paid to policies where Labour polls well.

    Also people keep avoiding how you even replace all the votes lost by replacing Corbyn before you even go about getting more. At some point you have to consider that whilst he wouldn't be your first choice there is a reason why Corbyn keeps doing better than he should.
    Blind faith can’t be reasoned with.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 11,896
    edited December 2018

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Another year of May as PM? Given her skills at bringing the country together after another year with her as PM, her government will be governing a pile of rubble.

    Yet another Labour voter whose blind faith in support of Brown did leave the UK a pile of rubble.
    May makes Brown look like Churchill.
    I don't recall Churchill destroying the British economy and employees pensions in the process.
    Don’t recall Brown doing that either. Bu let’s not reminisce about the good times. I feel sorry for you guys I really do. Hug the Maybot close, she’s the best you have. In return, share a tear for us lot stuck with Jeremy.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,595
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Another year of May as PM? Given her skills at bringing the country together after another year with her as PM, her government will be governing a pile of rubble.

    Yet another Labour voter whose blind faith in support of Brown did leave the UK a pile of rubble.
    May makes Brown look like Churchill.
    I don't recall Churchill destroying the British economy and employees pensions in the process.
    Don’t recall Brown doing that either. Bu let’s not reminisce about the good times. I feel sorry for you guys I really do. Hug the Maybot close, she’s the best you have. In return, share a tear for us lot stuck with Jeremy.
    You think Brown's destruction of the economy "the good times". You are as blind as the Jezziah.

  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,144

    He's the most popular Labour figure and one of the most popular politicians in the country...

    It doesn't matter if the entire Conservative and UKIP vote doesn't like him, or if half the Lib Dems can't stand him. The only thing that matter in terms him leading Labour being a plus or a negative is getting more people to vote Labour and on that count he has been successful and there is no evidence to suggest somebody else (note: Theresa May would not get as many votes as Labour leader) would do as well let alone better.
    27% are satisfied with his performance. 40% of Labour supporters are dissatisfied with his performance. These are terrible figures however you slice them.

    Labour are polling ok because the Conservatives are truly appalling. But even then they lag the Tories in mid term against a government that barely exists. You should consider the possibility that your hero is the problem.
    A large section (Labour) are permanently dissatisfied, that didn't stop Labours vote rising.

    As for the electorate at large, people are partisan, look at America and how awful Trump is but he and the Republicans still have massive support like the Tories and May still retain support here. The constant negative media doesn't help, but it is something that thanks to the TV rules changes in election time. There is also more attention paid to policies where Labour polls well.

    Also people keep avoiding how you even replace all the votes lost by replacing Corbyn before you even go about getting more. At some point you have to consider that whilst he wouldn't be your first choice there is a reason why Corbyn keeps doing better than he should.
    Blind faith can’t be reasoned with.
    I think the first time I took that personally now I see you were warning me not to bother trying to argue my case to you by pointing out the things in its favour...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 52,473

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Another year of May as PM? Given her skills at bringing the country together after another year with her as PM, her government will be governing a pile of rubble.

    Yet another Labour voter whose blind faith in support of Brown did leave the UK a pile of rubble.
    May makes Brown look like Churchill.
    I don't recall Churchill destroying the British economy and employees pensions in the process.
    Don’t recall Brown doing that either. Bu let’s not reminisce about the good times. I feel sorry for you guys I really do. Hug the Maybot close, she’s the best you have. In return, share a tear for us lot stuck with Jeremy.
    You think Brown's destruction of the economy "the good times". You are as blind as the Jezziah.

    Ol' Broon didn't 'destroy the economy' !
  • I do hope you are wrong. Cox was quoted as saying she’ll be gone by April. I hope he is right. May is a disaster and has been since she called the snap election. She has achieved nothing in office.

    Mogg might have made a total pratt of himself recently but the Tories need someone with a lot more charisma than May and someone with a much broader policy horizon than Brexit, important though Brexit is. The Tories also need someone who is not a control freak in charge. A new leader would get rid of all the dead wood like Grayling, Smith, Clark, Hunt, etc

    I suppose it’s all going to come down to whether she gets her deal. If she loses that, she’ll lose the subsequent VONC. If she wins she has a chance of surviving. Personally, I hope her deal gets well beaten. It’s a terrible deal.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 11,896
    edited December 2018


    In the meantime 2019 looks set to be a very busy political year. The fact of Jeremy Corbyn’s appalling unpopularity with the bulk of the population may well have consequences in the political decision-making process all by itself.
    He's the most popular Labour figure and one

    It doesn't matter if the entire Conservative and UKIP vote doesn't like him, or if half the Lib Dems can't stand him. The only thing that matter in terms him leading Labour being a plus or a negative is getting more people to vote Labour and on that count he has been successful and there is no evidence to suggest somebody else (note: Theresa May would not get as many votes as Labour leader) would do as well let alone better.
    27% are satisfied with his performance. 40% of Labour supporters are dissatisfied with his performance. These are terrible figures however you slice them.

    Labour are polling ok because the Conservatives are truly appalling. But even then they lag the Tories in mid term against a government that barely exists. You should consider the possibility that your hero is the problem.
    A large section (Labour) are permanently dissatisfied, that didn't stop Labours vote rising.

    As for the electorate at large, people are partisan, look at America and how awful Trump is but he and the Republicans still have massive support like the Tories and May still retain support here. The constant negative media doesn't help, but it is something that thanks to the TV rules changes in election time. There is also more attention paid to policies where Labour polls well.

    Also people keep avoiding how you even replace all the votes lost by replacing Corbyn before you even go about getting more. At some point you have to consider that whilst he wouldn't be your first choice there is a reason why Corbyn keeps doing better than he should.
    You need to get into your head that Corbyn needs to work hard to get some Labour people to vote for him. The left may be delighted, but that is not enough. In 2017 Mays failure, Brexit, a good campaign and a manifesto of Labours greatest hits helped Labour gain share. But for every vote Corbyn won, he polarised another against him.

    May and Brexit will probably not be there for Corbyn next time. He will campaign well, but will need fresh ideas in a new manifesto. No evidence of them so far. He also has done nothing to stop people voting against him. Arguably he is more antagonistic today than he was in 2017. He is certainly less likely to surprise.

    I could be wrong, but he seems weaker now.

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 11,896

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Another year of May as PM? Given her skills at bringing the country together after another year with her as PM, her government will be governing a pile of rubble.

    Yet another Labour voter whose blind faith in support of Brown did leave the UK a pile of rubble.
    May makes Brown look like Churchill.
    I don't recall Churchill destroying the British economy and employees pensions in the process.
    Don’t recall Brown doing that either. Bu let’s not reminisce about the good times. I feel sorry for you guys I really do. Hug the Maybot close, she’s the best you have. In return, share a tear for us lot stuck with Jeremy.
    You think Brown's destruction of the economy "the good times". You are as blind as the Jezziah.

    Compared to now and the chaos this governed has brought they are halcyon days.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 11,896
    edited December 2018
    The most popular and influential Labour supporter.




    Corbyn needs her vote.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 27,781
    I'd agree for the 1997-2003 period. Afterwards, not so much.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 23,828

    Ipsos MORI have the longest running series asking if people are satisfied or dissatisfied with party leaders’ performance. Jeremy Corbyn is currently at minus 32%, with just 27% satisfied.

    40% of Labour supporters are dissatisfied.
    I imagine they were before the previous election as well.

    Yet when the campaign starts and people get to hear Labours offer because the rules kick in around TV coverage people start reading it and liking it. In the intervening years between elections the groups supportive of Corbyn are more likely to switch off or become 'Don't knows' and the coverage of Labour and Corbyn in the media is overwhelmingly negative.

    It is all well and good to assert that Corbyn actually drags Labour down but our actual electoral evidence shows the opposite, we have very little proof that a different Labour leader would be doing as well let alone even better.

    It may be convincing if Labour were crashing under Corbyn but it is exactly the opposite, Labour looked to have turned around and started going in the right direction electorally. Peoples complaints are the political direction.

    That is blind faith. You’re entitled to it, of course.
    Actually I think you'll find Labour and Corbyn were struggling before the last election campaign.

    Also I listened to an interesting episode of polling matters not long ago where they talked about the Don't Know groups tending to be younger and more female... groups that also tend Labour and Corbyn.

    There is also the lack of polling showing some great alertanate leader doing better. If it was so obvious why do we not have this proof? There was a poll a long time ago before GE17 when Corbyn was doing badly which showed him around the level or beating potential replacements.

    'Blind faith'

    hmm... I suspect yours is the blind faith, not only does the idea of Labour doing better under a different leader lack evidence it also seems to fly in the face of the evidence available.

    People want a different leader so they assert an electoral argument for doing so without actually doing any work to prove one.
    The same 'younger and female' groups who would have been raised reading JK Rowling, follow her tweets, and be reading about how demoralised she is with Labour ?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 52,473
    edited December 2018


    I suppose it’s all going to come down to whether she gets her deal. If she loses that, she’ll lose the subsequent VONC. If she wins she has a chance of surviving. Personally, I hope her deal gets well beaten. It’s a terrible deal.

    Nah, if she wins the vote on the deal then she is immediately more vulnerable to a VONC. If she loses heavily then it might be death by cabinet walkout.
    A narrow loss followed by a no deal pivot could see Tory remainers VONC her; a narrow loss followed by a 2nd referendum pivot probably sees her resign.

    Her surviving is the sum of the DUP not VONCing her in the event of the deal passing (Or being saved by Woodcock and a couple of others !), her being too stubborn to resign if she gets thrashed; Tory remainers being frit to VONC her in a no deal pivot and May wanting to fight the 'deal/leave' cause in another referendum.
  • Good morning, everyone.

    Sounds like a winning bet, Mr. Pulpstar.

    I had a couple of little ones on her going in Q1 and Q2 but managed to hedge.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 27,781

    Ipsos MORI have the longest running series asking if people are satisfied or dissatisfied with party leaders’ performance. Jeremy Corbyn is currently at minus 32%, with just 27% satisfied.

    40% of Labour supporters are dissatisfied.
    I imagine they were before the previous election as well.

    Yet when the campaign starts and people get to hear Labours offer because the rules kick in around TV coverage people start reading it and liking it. In the intervening years between elections the groups supportive of Corbyn are more likely to switch off or become 'Don't knows' and the coverage of Labour and Corbyn in the media is overwhelmingly negative.

    It is all well and good to assert that Corbyn actually drags Labour down but our actual electoral evidence shows the opposite, we have very little proof that a different Labour leader would be doing as well let alone even better.

    It may be convincing if Labour were crashing under Corbyn but it is exactly the opposite, Labour looked to have turned around and started going in the right direction electorally. Peoples complaints are the political direction.

    That is blind faith. You’re entitled to it, of course.
    Actually I think you'll find Labour and Corbyn were struggling before the last election campaign.

    Also I listened to an interesting episode of polling matters not long ago where they talked about the Don't Know groups tending to be younger and more female... groups that also tend Labour and Corbyn.

    There is also the lack of polling showing some great alertanate leader doing better. If it was so obvious why do we not have this proof? There was a poll a long time ago before GE17 when Corbyn was doing badly which showed him around the level or beating potential replacements.

    'Blind faith'

    hmm... I suspect yours is the blind faith, not only does the idea of Labour doing better under a different leader lack evidence it also seems to fly in the face of the evidence available.

    People want a different leader so they assert an electoral argument for doing so without actually doing any work to prove one.
    The same 'younger and female' groups who would have been raised reading JK Rowling, follow her tweets, and be reading about how demoralised she is with Labour ?
    Corbyn both enthuses a lot of people who probably wouldn't otherwise vote, or who would vote for other left wing parties, but repeals many others who might consider voting Labour.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 27,781
    Pulpstar said:


    I suppose it’s all going to come down to whether she gets her deal. If she loses that, she’ll lose the subsequent VONC. If she wins she has a chance of surviving. Personally, I hope her deal gets well beaten. It’s a terrible deal.

    Nah, if she wins the vote on the deal then she is immediately more vulnerable to a VONC. If she loses heavily then it might be death by cabinet walkout.
    A narrow loss followed by a no deal pivot could see Tory remainers VONC her; a narrow loss followed by a 2nd referendum pivot probably sees her resign.

    Her surviving is the sum of the DUP not VONCing her in the event of the deal passing (Or being saved by Woodcock and a couple of others !), her being too stubborn to resign if she gets thrashed; Tory remainers being frit to VONC her in a no deal pivot and May wanting to fight the 'deal/leave' cause in another referendum.
    Or the mould of British politics may be broken, if Remainers on all sides of the Commons unite against their party leaders.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 11,896
    Sean_F said:

    Ipsos MORI have the longest running series asking if people are satisfied or dissatisfied with party leaders’ performance. Jeremy Corbyn is currently at minus 32%, with just 27% satisfied.

    40% of Labour supporters are dissatisfied.
    I imagine they were before the previous election as well.

    Yet when the campaign starts and people get to hear Labours offer because the rules kick in around TV coverage people start reading it and liking it. In the intervening years between elections the groups supportive of Corbyn are more likely to switch off or become 'Don't knows' and the coverage of Labour and Corbyn in the media is overwhelmingly negative.

    It is all well and good to assert that Corbyn actually drags Labour down but our actual electoral evidence

    That is blind faith. You’re entitled to it, of course.
    Actually I think you'll find Labour and Corbyn were struggling before the last election campaign.

    Also I listened to an interesting episode of polling matters not long ago where they talked about the Don't Know groups tending to be younger and more female... groups that also tend Labour and Corbyn.

    There is also the lack of polling showing some great alertanate leader doing better. If it was so obvious why do we not have this proof? There was a poll a long time ago before GE17

    'Blind faith'

    hmm... I suspect yours is the blind faith, not only does the idea of Labour doing better under a different leader lack evidence it also seems to fly in the face of the evidence available.

    People want a different leader so they assert an electoral argument for doing so without actually doing any work to prove one.
    The same 'younger and female' groups who would have been raised reading JK Rowling, follow her tweets, and be reading about how demoralised she is with Labour ?
    Corbyn both enthuses a lot of people who probably wouldn't otherwise vote, or who would vote for other left wing parties, but repeals many others who might consider voting Labour.
    Corbyn has a choice.

    Follow the Trump strategy. Polarise the campaign and try to win on differential turnout, by firing the base to extreme levels, squish out rational debate and do just enough to get the centrists out to vote against the Tories as the lesser of two evils.

    Or the Blair/Cameron approach, win your core and the centre.

    We know which way he will go. Sad.
  • IanB2 said:

    Thought this was interesting, from link in tweet in Carlotta's post.

    _______________________________
    In total, Labour needs to gain 64 new seats (and retain its current ones) to win an overall majority. The smoothest path runs through the 76 seats where Labour is behind the opposition by less than 10 percentage points. 42 of these voted Leave (with a 59% Leave vote, on average), and 36 voted Remain (with a 61% Remain vote, on average).
    ______________________________

    This will have different effects depending on when or why the election is. If May holds one soon in which she is pushing her deal then that isn't something leavers are not united behind.

    When you think of polling changes since the referendum I suspect there is probably a slight remain lean overall in Labours target seats but not an obvious fight Brexit bonus waiting for us. It would suggest Corbyn's strategy is sensible for now.

    What this "Labour Leave seats" analysis sometimes overlooks is that, generalising, in such seats the Leave voters are mostly the Tories, with Labour having most of the remainers. Thinking that winning such a seat means leaning to leave is mistaken if they stand to lose more of their existing support than they can pull across in compensation from the other side (edit/ and I doubt there are many of the latter still to win, anyway - certainly not by fence sitting. The Tory votes for the picking are their concerned remainers).

    Labour did particularly well last time by pulling in much of the previous and potential support from the LibDems. If they go chasing Leave voters that process could very easily unwind.
    Also per available polling there's been quite a significant move from Leave to Remain, which is happening (IIRC) particularly among Labour supporters. In theory it's possible that these Leave->Remain swingers will want their previous decision respected even though they now think it was a mistake, but I'd be surprised if many of them think like that.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,144
    Jonathan said:

    27% are satisfied with his performance. 40% of Labour supporters are dissatisfied with his performance. These are terrible figures however you slice them.

    Labour are polling ok because the Conservatives are truly appalling. But even then they lag the Tories in mid term against a government that barely exists. You should consider the possibility that your hero is the problem.
    A large section (Labour) are permanently dissatisfied, that didn't stop Labours vote rising.

    As for the electorate at large, people are partisan, look at America and how awful Trump is but he and the Republicans still have massive support like the Tories and May still retain support here. The constant negative media doesn't help, but it is something that thanks to the TV rules changes in election time. There is also more attention paid to policies where Labour polls well.

    Also people keep avoiding how you even replace all the votes lost by replacing Corbyn before you even go about getting more. At some point you have to consider that whilst he wouldn't be your first choice there is a reason why Corbyn keeps doing better than he should.
    You need to get into your head that Corbyn needs to work hard to get some Labour people to vote for him. The left may be delighted, but that is not enough. In 2017 Mays failure, Brexit, a good campaign and a manifesto of Labours greatest hits helped Labour gain share. But for every vote Corbyn won, he polarised another against him.

    May and Brexit will probably not be there for Corbyn next time. He will campaign well, but will need fresh ideas in a new manifesto. No evidence of them so far. He also has done nothing to stop people voting against him. Arguably he is more antagonistic today than he was in 2017. He is certainly less likely to surprise.

    I could be wrong, but he seems weaker now.

    Sorry wasn't ignoring you.

    I believe Labour will change policy on Brexit* (or I think it's likely anyway) They will run on policies that are generally popular among the left and some centrists. He is more of a known quantity which presents a slightly different set of challenges and advantages some good and some bad.

    *Or shift through the options in line with their current policy if you prefer.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 25,690
    To survive the year May needs to get her deal through the Commons and in effect. That is a necessary but not sufficient requirement. If there is an extension of article 50 or a second referendum I think she is toast and someone else will get a go, even if they end up offering something pretty similar.

    If she does get the deal through there are going to be a lot of unhappy remainers in the country plus an unhappy DUP. Governing is not going to be easy. We will no doubt have arguments about whether GDP growth on a quarterly basis would have been a tenth or two higher. I suspect most will pay little attention to that but the Commons will be restless and unpredictable.

    May would want a chance to be seen to do something about the rest of her agenda, threadbare though that appears. Whether her party is minded to let her is another question. Overall, I think I would have been looking for slightly better odds than Mike got on this.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,144
    Sean_F said:



    It is all well and good to assert that Corbyn actually drags Labour down but our actual electoral evidence shows the opposite, we have very little proof that a different Labour leader would be doing as well let alone even better.

    It may be convincing if Labour were crashing under Corbyn but it is exactly the opposite, Labour looked to have turned around and started going in the right direction electorally. Peoples complaints are the political direction.

    That is blind faith. You’re entitled to it, of course.
    Actually I think you'll find Labour and Corbyn were struggling before the last election campaign.

    Also I listened to an interesting episode of polling matters not long ago where they talked about the Don't Know groups tending to be younger and more female... groups that also tend Labour and Corbyn.

    There is also the lack of polling showing some great alertanate leader doing better. If it was so obvious why do we not have this proof? There was a poll a long time ago before GE17 when Corbyn was doing badly which showed him around the level or beating potential replacements.

    'Blind faith'

    hmm... I suspect yours is the blind faith, not only does the idea of Labour doing better under a different leader lack evidence it also seems to fly in the face of the evidence available.

    People want a different leader so they assert an electoral argument for doing so without actually doing any work to prove one.
    The same 'younger and female' groups who would have been raised reading JK Rowling, follow her tweets, and be reading about how demoralised she is with Labour ?
    Corbyn both enthuses a lot of people who probably wouldn't otherwise vote, or who would vote for other left wing parties, but repeals many others who might consider voting Labour.
    The calculations which are important in electoral terms are if there are more of the first group than second (or percentage of the second who would actually in the end vote Labour rather than just consider it) and whether the end result of that is better or worse than it would be under an alternative leader.

    As for celebrity endorsements I'm sure they can make a difference but they are often the backers of losing causes. I feel like the Democrats under Clinton had the celebrity backers as well as Remain during the referendum.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 27,781

    Sean_F said:



    It is all well and good to assert that Corbyn actually drags Labour down but our actual electoral evidence shows the opposite, we have very little proof that a different Labour leader would be doing as well let alone even better.

    It may be convincing if Labour were crashing under Corbyn but it is exactly the opposite, Labour looked to have turned around and started going in the right direction electorally. Peoples complaints are the political direction.

    That is blind faith. You’re entitled to it, of course.
    Actually I think you'll find Labour and Corbyn were struggling before the last election campaign.

    Also I listened to an interesting episode of polling matters not long ago where they talked about the Don't Know groups tending to be younger and more female... groups that also tend Labour and Corbyn.

    There is also the lack of polling showing some great alertanate leader doing better. If it was so obvious why do we not have this proof? There was a poll a long time ago before GE17 when Corbyn was doing badly which showed him around the

    'Blind faith'

    hmm... I suspect yours is the blind faith, not only does the idea of Labour doing better under a different leader lack evidence it also seems to fly in the face of the evidence available.

    People want a different leader so they assert an electoral argument for doing so without actually doing any work to prove one.
    The same 'younger and female' groups who would have been raised reading JK Rowling, follow her tweets, and be reading about how demoralised she is with Labour ?
    Corbyn both enthuses a lot of people who probably wouldn't otherwise vote, or who would vote for other left wing parties, but repeals many others who might consider voting Labour.
    The calculations which are important in electoral terms are if there are more of the first group than second (or percentage of the second who would actually in the end vote Labour rather than just consider it) and whether the end result of that is better or worse than it would be under an alternative leader.

    As for celebrity endorsements I'm sure they can make a difference but they are often the backers of losing causes. I feel like the Democrats under Clinton had the celebrity backers as well as Remain during the referendum.
    Celebrity endorsements make no difference.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 11,896

    Jonathan said:

    27% are satisfied with his performance. 40% of Labour supporters are dissatisfied with his performance. These are terrible figures however you slice them.

    Labour are polling ok because the Conservatives are truly appalling. But even then they lag the Tories in mid term against a government that barely exists. You should consider the possibility that your hero is the problem.
    A large section (Labour) are permanently dissatisfied, that didn't stop Labours vote rising.

    As for the electorate at large, people are partisan, look at America and how awful Trump is but he and the Republicans still have massive support like the Tories and May still retain support here. The constant negative media doesn't help, but it is something that thanks to the TV rules changes in election time. There is also more attention paid to policies where Labour polls well.

    Also people keep avoiding how you even replace all the votes lost by replacing Corbyn before you even go about getting more. At some point you have to consider that whilst he wouldn't be your first choice there is a reason why Corbyn keeps doing better than he should.

    I could be wrong, but he seems weaker now.

    Sorry wasn't ignoring you.

    I believe Labour will change policy on Brexit* (or I think it's likely anyway) They will run on policies that are generally popular among the left and some centrists. He is more of a known quantity which presents a slightly different set of challenges and advantages some good and some bad.

    *Or shift through the options in line with their current policy if you prefer.
    I really should be in the bag for Labour, but I am not. Despite being on the old right of the party, thought a left wing Labour leader was a stroke of political genius. Refreshing even.

    However, Corbyn disappoints me by encouraging a situation where his support acts like a cult. He has some very extreme people around him. Their attitude against their enemies is something I cannot support. His Labour is like a religion, a battle of good vs. evil. I find that it appalling that a Labour CoE talks about insurrection. His policy platform is too backward looking. All together a bit too Trumpian for my taste.

    I prefer a broader church that tries new ideas. At the moment Labour is still the best of a bad bunch. But it’s getting close.

    That’s me, a Labour member since 1992.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 25,690
    I think that there is an argument that 2018 has been the worst year for our politics since at least 2009. Then we had Brown in denial about the crash, refusing to have a spending review, refusing to accept that the tax revenues he had already spent were not coming, leading a zombified government with no clear direction or ideas other than trying to blame the Tories for the forthcoming cuts.

    Now we have the country as deeply divided as I can recall, a zombified government desperately trying to deal with Brexit to the exclusion of pretty much everything else, a crisis that rolls on and on till everyone not on PB is bored to tears with it and an opposition that is about the only thing imaginable that could make the government look good.

    The idea, as Alastair commented earlier, that 2019 is offering more of the same is profoundly depressing.
  • DavidL said:

    I think that there is an argument that 2018 has been the worst year for our politics since at least 2009. Then we had Brown in denial about the crash, refusing to have a spending review, refusing to accept that the tax revenues he had already spent were not coming, leading a zombified government with no clear direction or ideas other than trying to blame the Tories for the forthcoming cuts.

    Now we have the country as deeply divided as I can recall, a zombified government desperately trying to deal with Brexit to the exclusion of pretty much everything else, a crisis that rolls on and on till everyone not on PB is bored to tears with it and an opposition that is about the only thing imaginable that could make the government look good.

    The idea, as Alastair commented earlier, that 2019 is offering more of the same is profoundly depressing.

    I’m not that optimistic. 2019 is going to be considerably worse.
  • Mr. L, don't forget Brown brought forward a lot of spending to try and make things a little better for the election, and worse afterwards.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 25,690

    DavidL said:

    I think that there is an argument that 2018 has been the worst year for our politics since at least 2009. Then we had Brown in denial about the crash, refusing to have a spending review, refusing to accept that the tax revenues he had already spent were not coming, leading a zombified government with no clear direction or ideas other than trying to blame the Tories for the forthcoming cuts.

    Now we have the country as deeply divided as I can recall, a zombified government desperately trying to deal with Brexit to the exclusion of pretty much everything else, a crisis that rolls on and on till everyone not on PB is bored to tears with it and an opposition that is about the only thing imaginable that could make the government look good.

    The idea, as Alastair commented earlier, that 2019 is offering more of the same is profoundly depressing.

    I’m not that optimistic. 2019 is going to be considerably worse.
    Cheers Alastair, and a merry Christmas to you too.
  • rcs1000 said:

    If the unskilled immigrants can work and support themselves with zero rights to in-work benefits then I have no qualms with that as I said.

    No I am saying there is a supply of unskilled labour already and we should apply the economics of supply and demand to that. I see no need to artificially inflate our supply of unskilled labour.

    If a company wants to hire unskilled labour then they can compete based on supply and demand with other companies to attract that labour from the unskilled we already have and not import new unskilled labour.

    There is no divine right to have vacancies filled. If you can't fill a vacancy with the unskilled labour that is already present you can either compete better (increasing wages), work smarter (be more productive so you don't need as much labour) or some other combination. That is how the economy grows per capita. That is how our productivity improves. That is supply and demand. The best employers should be able to recruit ultimately.

    As an example replacing automated mechanical car washes which use no labour with hand car washes which are staffed by unskilled labourers potentially claiming tax credits being paid minimum wage is not progress.


    Hand washing cars (for payment) is a backward step as far as UK productivity is concerned.
    Absolutely. And it's a completely unnecessary job. The economy would survive just fine if we machine washed for payment or hand washed ourselves our vehicles.
    That makes literally no sense. You are basically saying that you can't be trusted to choose how your car should be washed, and the government should make that choice for you.

    By all means remove the subsidies on immigration, but the government shouldn't be making minor economic decisions for its citizens. If people preferred an automatic car wash, or it was meaningfully cheaper, then they would choose it.
    I never said the government should decide. I said that supply and demand should decide.

    I said I'm happy with unsubsidised migration. I already said if anyone wants to come to this country, obey our laws, pay our taxes and not receive any welfare then I welcome them. I don't care in what quantity this occurs, or what ethnicity or anything else. I'm very liberal for unsubsidised migration.

    My point wasn't that the government should prevent jobs from being done, my point was that
    if the pool of unskilled labour doesn't grow due to free movement and subsidies then supply and demand will see which jobs need doing and which don't. If there's more demand than supply then price increases (more wages for the unskilled) until we reach an equilibrium.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 25,690

    Mr. L, don't forget Brown brought forward a lot of spending to try and make things a little better for the election, and worse afterwards.

    I don't forget the many sins of Brown but to adumbrate even half of them would have diverted from my central point.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 18,648

    IanB2 said:

    Thought this was interesting, from link in tweet in Carlotta's post.

    _______________________________
    In total, Labour needs to gain 64 new seats (and retain its current ones) to win an overall majority. The smoothest path runs through the 76 seats where Labour is behind the opposition by less than 10 percentage points. 42 of these voted Leave (with a 59% Leave vote, on average), and 36 voted Remain (with a 61% Remain vote, on average).
    ______________________________

    This will have different effects depending on when or why the election is. If May holds one soon in which she is pushing her deal then that isn't something leavers are not united behind.

    When you think of polling changes since the referendum I suspect there is probably a slight remain lean overall in Labours target seats but not an obvious fight Brexit bonus waiting for us. It would suggest Corbyn's strategy is sensible for now.

    What this "Labour Leave seats" analysis sometimes overlooks is that, generalising, in such seats the Leave voters are mostly the Tories, with Labour having most of the remainers. Thinking that winning such a seat means leaning to leave is mistaken if they stand to lose more of their existing support than they can pull across in compensation from the other side (edit/ and I doubt there are many of the latter still to win, anyway - certainly not by fence sitting. The Tory votes for the picking are their concerned remainers).

    Labour did particularly well last time by pulling in much of the previous and potential support from the LibDems. If they go chasing Leave voters that process could very easily unwind.
    Also per available polling there's been quite a significant move from Leave to Remain, which is happening (IIRC) particularly among Labour supporters. In theory it's possible that these Leave->Remain swingers will want their previous decision respected even though they now think it was a mistake, but I'd be surprised if many of them think like that.
    The votes Labour needs are the Tory remainers, and I don't see they have too much to lose by backing the people's vote now. Labour leavers are, generalising, the less fanatical ones, they can hardly be impressed with how the Tories have handled Brexit, and they have plenty of other reasons not to switch to the Tories. And have nowhere else to go.

    Despite all the criticism of May, the Tory vote share was pretty healthy last time, and I would put money on it going down next time. As is usual for all governments, let alone failing ones.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 25,690
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Thought this was interesting, from link in tweet in Carlotta's post.

    _______________________________
    In total, Labour needs to gain 64 new seats (and retain its current ones) to win an overall majority. The smoothest path runs through the 76 seats where Labour is behind the opposition by less than 10 percentage points. 42 of these voted Leave (with a 59% Leave vote, on average), and 36 voted Remain (with a 61% Remain vote, on average).
    ______________________________

    This will have different effects depending on when or why the election is. If May holds one soon in which she is pushing her deal then that isn't something leavers are not united behind.

    When you think of polling changes since the referendum I suspect there is probably a slight remain lean overall in Labours target seats but not an obvious fight Brexit bonus waiting for us. It would suggest Corbyn's strategy is sensible for now.

    What this "Labour Leave seats" analysis sometimes overlooks is that, generalising, in such seats the Leave voters are mostly the Tories, with Labour having most of the remainers. Thinking that winning such a seat means leaning to leave is mistaken if they stand to lose more of their existing support than they can pull across in compensation from the other side (edit/ and I doubt there are many of the latter still to win, anyway - certainly not by fence sitting. The Tory votes for the picking are their concerned remainers).

    Labour did particularly well last time by pulling in much of the previous and potential support from the LibDems. If they go chasing Leave voters that process could very easily unwind.
    Also per available polling there's been quite a significant move from Leave to Remain, which is happening (IIRC) particularly among Labour supporters. In theory it's possible that these Leave->Remain swingers will want their previous decision respected even though they now think it was a mistake, but I'd be surprised if many of them think like that.
    The votes Labour needs are the Tory remainers, and I don't see they have too much to lose by backing the people's vote now. Labour leavers are, generalising, the less fanatical ones, they can hardly be impressed with how the Tories have handled Brexit, and they have plenty of other reasons not to switch to the Tories. And have nowhere else to go.

    Despite all the criticism of May, the Tory vote share was pretty healthy last time, and I would put money on it going down next time. As is usual for all governments, let alone failing ones.
    Not if the choice is Corbyn. Otherwise, yes.
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634

    Sean_F said:



    It is all well and good to assert that Corbyn actually drags Labour down but our actual electoral evidence shows the opposite, we have very little proof that a different Labour leader would be doing as well let alone even better.

    It may be convincing if Labour were crashing under Corbyn but it is exactly the opposite, Labour looked to have turned around and started going in the right direction electorally. Peoples complaints are the political direction.

    That is blind faith. You’re entitled to it, of course.
    Actually I think you'll find Labour and Corbyn were struggling before the last election campaign.

    Also I listened to an interesting episode of polling matters not long ago where they talked about the Don't Know groups tending to be younger and more female... groups that also tend Labour and Corbyn.

    There is also the lack of polling showing some great alertanate leader doing better. If it was so obvious why do we not have this proof? There was a poll a long time ago before GE17 when Corbyn was doing badly which showed him around the level or beating potential replacements.

    'Blind faith'

    hmm... I suspect yours is the blind faith, not only does the idea of Labour doing better under a different leader lack evidence it also seems to fly in the face of the evidence available.

    People want a different leader so they assert an electoral argument for doing so without actually doing any work to prove one.
    The same 'younger and female' groups who would have been raised reading JK Rowling, follow her tweets, and be reading about how demoralised she is with Labour ?
    Corbyn both enthuses a lot of people who probably wouldn't otherwise vote, or who would vote for other left wing parties, but repeals many others who might consider voting Labour.
    The calculations which are important in electoral terms are if there are more of the first group than second (or percentage of the second who would actually in the end vote Labour rather than just consider it) and whether the end result of that is better or worse than it would be under an alternative leader.
    Altrhough it's important to remember that the latter group are worth twice the former.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 5,507
    Mrs May's problem is that although she voted Remain herself, her selling point was her Brexit means Brexit proclamation. She was unaware of the opposition tactics, or thought she could ignore them.

    What the stubborn Remainers (and that included the EU) wanted was delay at all costs. It was always going to be difficult to disentangle 45 years of gradual but steady ntanglement, and delay was their friend. Time then for revocation, another referendum or a continuation of Project Fear to become embedded.

    Anti-democratic without doubt, but that didn't matter. What could they lose? Bureaucrats are very good at delaying and the EU was never in a hurry to lose billions in revenue. They are the Higg's Boson of politics, they add mass and turn progress into a wade through treacle.

    Mrs May has bogged down as they planned.

    Going forward will mean more entanglement, but this time, there'll be no more consultation. A once in a forty years referendum was a UK mistake and won't be repeated. You'll have a choice at most seats between Labour and Tory candidates, and both will probably be pro-EU. Unless you also have a LD in the mix, and they'll be even more pro-EU.

    Some things are not for the common herd to decide, so suck it up and bend the knee.


  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634
    CD13 said:

    Mrs May's problem is that although she voted Remain herself, her selling point was her Brexit means Brexit proclamation. She was unaware of the opposition tactics, or thought she could ignore them.

    What the stubborn Remainers (and that included the EU) wanted was delay at all costs. It was always going to be difficult to disentangle 45 years of gradual but steady ntanglement, and delay was their friend. Time then for revocation, another referendum or a continuation of Project Fear to become embedded.

    Anti-democratic without doubt, but that didn't matter. What could they lose? Bureaucrats are very good at delaying and the EU was never in a hurry to lose billions in revenue. They are the Higg's Boson of politics, they add mass and turn progress into a wade through treacle.

    Mrs May has bogged down as they planned.

    Going forward will mean more entanglement, but this time, there'll be no more consultation. A once in a forty years referendum was a UK mistake and won't be repeated. You'll have a choice at most seats between Labour and Tory candidates, and both will probably be pro-EU. Unless you also have a LD in the mix, and they'll be even more pro-EU.

    Some things are not for the common herd to decide, so suck it up and bend the knee.


    Consistent with this thesis: https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/how-the-europhiles-are-blowing-up-britain
  • The Corbyn being a drag seems to be a common line used against Corbyn but very little evidence is provided for it

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/0tfrv277zr/YG Trackers - Best Prime Minister.pdf
    Just do a few vox pops mate, ask the ordinary "man" in the street. Most think Corbyn is a Cnut of epic proportions.
    We had these before the election and Labour had a massive vote share rise...

    There is a small chance that asking a random man in a street a question might not produce a representative answer... specifically if ordinary man in the street is repeatedly white people over the age of 50, many of who don't like him*... but they already have their own party called the Conservatives. Labour is the party for those that don't qualify as ordinary man in the street.

    *So it is representative but of its own group only not the rest of us.
    Ipsos MORI have the longest running series asking if people are satisfied or dissatisfied with party leaders’ performance. Jeremy Corbyn is currently at minus 32%, with just 27% satisfied.

    40% of Labour supporters are dissatisfied.
    I imagine they were before the previous election as well.
    Then you'd be mistaken.

    The last survey before the GE had Corbyn on -11, May on -7 - a gap of 4 points.

    The most recent survey has Corbyn on -32 and May on -22 - a gap of 10 points.

    For perspective, before GE1997 Blair was on +22. Before GE2015 Miliband was on -19.

  • notme2notme2 Posts: 892

    First (on topic) like the Tories at GE2022*

    *T&C apply.

    Agree with OGH that May is no quitter - I suspect in the end the Tories will do what they did to Thatcher and oust her - but she has to become a liability first.

    She might be already. Much is made of Corbyn's drag on Labour but pb Tories from time to time remind us there is a booming economy with record employment and tax receipts. If so, then surely there ought to be a huge Conservative lead in the polls, but there isn't. Is Theresa May the reason?
    8 years in, heading a highly unstable coalition, repeatedly humiliated by her colleagues, and in the process of trying to implement the most contentious political policy since we went to war in Suez. Yet she’s four points clear in latest YouGov on 40%.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 18,648
    Donny43 said:

    CD13 said:

    Mrs May's problem is that although she voted Remain herself, her selling point was her Brexit means Brexit proclamation. She was unaware of the opposition tactics, or thought she could ignore them.

    What the stubborn Remainers (and that included the EU) wanted was delay at all costs. It was always going to be difficult to disentangle 45 years of gradual but steady ntanglement, and delay was their friend. Time then for revocation, another referendum or a continuation of Project Fear to become embedded.

    Anti-democratic without doubt, but that didn't matter. What could they lose? Bureaucrats are very good at delaying and the EU was never in a hurry to lose billions in revenue. They are the Higg's Boson of politics, they add mass and turn progress into a wade through treacle.

    Mrs May has bogged down as they planned.

    Going forward will mean more entanglement, but this time, there'll be no more consultation. A once in a forty years referendum was a UK mistake and won't be repeated. You'll have a choice at most seats between Labour and Tory candidates, and both will probably be pro-EU. Unless you also have a LD in the mix, and they'll be even more pro-EU.

    Some things are not for the common herd to decide, so suck it up and bend the knee.


    Consistent with this thesis: https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/how-the-europhiles-are-blowing-up-britain
    No, it's simplistic nonsense. The entire argument rests on the suggestion that we ruled out no deal at the outset (if only!) yet the article itself outlines how devastating no deal would be.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,095
    edited December 2018
    Pulpstar said:


    I suppose it’s all going to come down to whether she gets her deal. If she loses that, she’ll lose the subsequent VONC. If she wins she has a chance of surviving. Personally, I hope her deal gets well beaten. It’s a terrible deal.

    Nah, if she wins the vote on the deal then she is immediately more vulnerable to a VONC. If she loses heavily then it might be death by cabinet walkout.
    A narrow loss followed by a no deal pivot could see Tory remainers VONC her; a narrow loss followed by a 2nd referendum pivot probably sees her resign.

    Her surviving is the sum of the DUP not VONCing her in the event of the deal passing (Or being saved by Woodcock and a couple of others !), her being too stubborn to resign if she gets thrashed; Tory remainers being frit to VONC her in a no deal pivot and May wanting to fight the 'deal/leave' cause in another referendum.
    If May's deal gets through she will be significantly more insulated by an increase in her popularity in the country. She will be the new Maggie, sticking to her guns and getting stuff done through sheer bloody mindedness. There will be some level of rejoicing in the now pro-Deal Tory press and perhaps even in the country, which will be pleased to have it all over with. No way the Tories will move against her at that point. Maybe later in the year.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 18,648

    Pulpstar said:


    I suppose it’s all going to come down to whether she gets her deal. If she loses that, she’ll lose the subsequent VONC. If she wins she has a chance of surviving. Personally, I hope her deal gets well beaten. It’s a terrible deal.

    Nah, if she wins the vote on the deal then she is immediately more vulnerable to a VONC. If she loses heavily then it might be death by cabinet walkout.
    A narrow loss followed by a no deal pivot could see Tory remainers VONC her; a narrow loss followed by a 2nd referendum pivot probably sees her resign.

    Her surviving is the sum of the DUP not VONCing her in the event of the deal passing (Or being saved by Woodcock and a couple of others !), her being too stubborn to resign if she gets thrashed; Tory remainers being frit to VONC her in a no deal pivot and May wanting to fight the 'deal/leave' cause in another referendum.
    If May's deal gets through she will be significantly more insulated by an increase in her popularity in the country. She will be the new Maggie, sticking to her guns and getting stuff done through sheer bloody mindedness. There will be some level of rejoicing in the now pro-Deal Tory press and perhaps even in the country, which will be pleased to have it all over with. No way the Tories will move against her at that point. Maybe later in the year.
    True. And if the DUP comes onboard as rumoured, the pressure on the Tories' internal nutters will be intense.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 14,061
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/business/trump-has-no-plans-to-sack-fed-chairman-qmthfqkx8

    This story is in part the reason why US banks are having meetings with the Treasury Secretary so that they can be reassured.

    It is worrying because the entire financial system is based on trust and confidence. Any problems in the US will rapidly affect us here.

    Trump has upset the Iraqis and the Afghans, has likely made it easier for IS to regroup, has sold out the Kurds and is now, at best, careless of the effects his words can have on the financial system. Alastair is right. 2019 could easily look a whole load worse than 2018.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 11,346
    edited December 2018
    It's extraordinary to compare the UK stock market with those of Germany France the US Japan Europe. Since the Brexit result we've become a basket case. That's what happens when you have a PM whose only policy-as yet undeliverable-is Brexit means Brexit and a LOTO who doesn't know what a stock market is.
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 892

    The Corbyn being a drag seems to be a common line used against Corbyn but very little evidence is provided for it

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/0tfrv277zr/YG Trackers - Best Prime Minister.pdf
    Just do a few vox pops mate, ask the ordinary "man" in the street. Most think Corbyn is a Cnut of epic proportions.
    My other half is a labour canvasser. She says they regularly get a hard time about him from their own supporters.
  • There has been quite a slump in Corbyn's ratings over 2018

    Net satisfied Labour VI Corbyn:
    Jan: +48
    Mar: +45
    Apr: +26
    May: +30
    Jun: +25
    Jul: +29
    Nov: +9

    For perspective May's November Satisfaction Rating was +35 - down 20 points on the start of the year - half Corbyn's slump, and up 15 points since her summer nadir.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 37,527
    Roger said:

    It's extraordinary to compare the UK stock market with those of Germany France the US Japan Europe. Since the Brexit result we've become a basket case. That's what happens when you have a PM whose only policy-as yet undeliverable-is Brexit means Brexit and a LOTO who doesn't know what a stock market is.

    A basket case? More hyperbole.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 11,896
    Cyclefree said:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/business/trump-has-no-plans-to-sack-fed-chairman-qmthfqkx8

    This story is in part the reason why US banks are having meetings with the Treasury Secretary so that they can be reassured.

    It is worrying because the entire financial system is based on trust and confidence. Any problems in the US will rapidly affect us here.

    Trump has upset the Iraqis and the Afghans, has likely made it easier for IS to regroup, has sold out the Kurds and is now, at best, careless of the effects his words can have on the financial system. Alastair is right. 2019 could easily look a whole load worse than 2018.

    Alistair is right 2019 could well be worse.

    If you had explained the state of UK politics and global diplomacy to someone in 2000, once you had got through explaining for the 12th time that this was not a Hollywood plot, they would have been shocked.

    They would ask, what are you going to do about the crisis. A question to which, we can only say we are powerless observers. Shock would give way to horror.

    Hopefully things will be ok. Brexit May yet turn out to be a damp squib, but things are set up in a very troubling way. 2019 could be catastrophic. The fact that’s a realistic chance, is already an indicator things have gone too far. And yet there is nothing we can do.


  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 52,473
    edited December 2018

    Pulpstar said:


    I suppose it’s all going to come down to whether she gets her deal. If she loses that, she’ll lose the subsequent VONC. If she wins she has a chance of surviving. Personally, I hope her deal gets well beaten. It’s a terrible deal.

    Nah, if she wins the vote on the deal then she is immediately more vulnerable to a VONC. If she loses heavily then it might be death by cabinet walkout.
    A narrow loss followed by a no deal pivot could see Tory remainers VONC her; a narrow loss followed by a 2nd referendum pivot probably sees her resign.

    Her surviving is the sum of the DUP not VONCing her in the event of the deal passing (Or being saved by Woodcock and a couple of others !), her being too stubborn to resign if she gets thrashed; Tory remainers being frit to VONC her in a no deal pivot and May wanting to fight the 'deal/leave' cause in another referendum.
    If May's deal gets through she will be significantly more insulated by an increase in her popularity in the country. She will be the new Maggie, sticking to her guns and getting stuff done through sheer bloody mindedness. There will be some level of rejoicing in the now pro-Deal Tory press and perhaps even in the country, which will be pleased to have it all over with. No way the Tories will move against her at that point. Maybe later in the year.
    Parliamentary VONC in case her deal passes. The Tories are 100% behind her in this scenario. The DUP probably not.
  • Roger said:

    It's extraordinary to compare the UK stock market with those of Germany France the US Japan Europe. Since the Brexit result we've become a basket case. That's what happens when you have a PM whose only policy-as yet undeliverable-is Brexit means Brexit and a LOTO who doesn't know what a stock market is.

    There's more to life than the stock market:

    https://www.ft.com/content/cf51e840-7147-11e7-93ff-99f383b09ff9
  • stodgestodge Posts: 5,246
    Morning all :)

    Is this a good bet to lay? I'm less convinced. I don't think anyone seriously believed May would lose the No Confidence vote in the Parliamentary party - the question was what level of opposition would preclude her from carrying on. I said 200 would be the benchmark and so it proved. I think had she got just 180 supporting her she would have been in a much weaker position.

    Nonetheless, we have the WA next month and the critical question of alignment or re-alignment. Currently we have the Conservative Party as the party of LEAVE (all flavours apparently) and the LDs are clearly the party of REMAIN (via a second vote) but Labour's position remains unclear to this observer.

    None of that alters the fact there are pro-REMAIN elements within the Conservative Party and a strong pro-REMAIN presence in the Labour Party. How these groups will respond if (or perhaps when) we exit the EU (on whatever basis) on 29/3 remains to be seen.

    There is the option, once we've left, to pivot toward a policy of negotiated re-entry but there needs to be clarity on the terms acceptable - could we go back as we were, I can see why the UK would want that but less certain why the EU would. Returning to the EU would need a significant change in the political culture from being half-hearted mean-spirited rebate-obsessed members to being more enthusiastic supporters (including possibly the Euro and Schengen) and there's little prospect of that at this time.

    As for May, the WA is critical - as I argued yesterday, she can carry on if it falls but she would then have to go for a managed No Deal which might risk a mutiny in the Cabinet (certainly some resignations). The alternative, revoking A50, would be political and electoral suicide for both her and the Conservative Party.

    If we assume the 40% Conservative rating is propped up by both those supporting her because she is seeing through the referendum result and by those terrified of a Corbyn Government, one of those props will be knocked away when we do exit (on whatever terms). Were Labour to knock away the other prop, we might see the poll numbers shift abruptly.

    If we do leave without a Deal and it turns out to be the near-extinction event some on here seem to peddle, the local elections (if we've time to vote between scavenging for rats and dodging feral packs of dogs in the ruins of our towns and cities as civilisation collapses because Waitrose has run out of avocadoes) may not be good for the Conservative Party which is defending over 5000 seats won at a high tide.
  • Jonathan said:

    Cyclefree said:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/business/trump-has-no-plans-to-sack-fed-chairman-qmthfqkx8

    This story is in part the reason why US banks are having meetings with the Treasury Secretary so that they can be reassured.

    It is worrying because the entire financial system is based on trust and confidence. Any problems in the US will rapidly affect us here.

    Trump has upset the Iraqis and the Afghans, has likely made it easier for IS to regroup, has sold out the Kurds and is now, at best, careless of the effects his words can have on the financial system. Alastair is right. 2019 could easily look a whole load worse than 2018.

    Alistair is right 2019 could well be worse.
    And not just here. Trumpistan, Emperor Macron and Lame Duck Merkel spring to mind.

    Whatever our difficulties we've yet to see rioting and deaths as they are experiencing in France, and unlike the US we don't have a monomaniacal leader who has lost all the adults in the room. Mutti is in for a bumpy ride too as the Chinese economy slows and they stop buying all that German manufacturing equipment.


  • Roger said:

    It's extraordinary to compare the UK stock market with those of Germany France the US Japan Europe. Since the Brexit result we've become a basket case. That's what happens when you have a PM whose only policy-as yet undeliverable-is Brexit means Brexit and a LOTO who doesn't know what a stock market is.

    Okay then Roger - compare them.

    Show us how the UK stock market has changed over the last 30 months and then give the comparisons with Germany, France etc
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 892

    Ipsos MORI have the longest running series asking if people are satisfied or dissatisfied with party leaders’ performance. Jeremy Corbyn is currently at minus 32%, with just 27% satisfied.

    40% of Labour supporters are dissatisfied.
    I imagine they were before the previous election as well.

    Yet when the campaign starts and people get to hear Labours offer because the rules kick in around TV coverage people start reading it and liking it. In the intervening years between elections the groups supportive of Corbyn are more likely to switch off or become 'Don't knows' and the coverage of Labour and Corbyn in the media is overwhelmingly negative.

    It is all well and good to assert that Corbyn actually drags Labour down but our actual electoral evidence shows the opposite, we have very little proof that a different Labour leader would be doing as well let alone even better.

    It may be convincing if Labour were crashing under Corbyn but it is exactly the opposite, Labour looked to have turned around and started going in the right direction electorally. Peoples complaints are the political direction.

    That is blind faith. You’re entitled to it, of course.
    Actually I think you'll find Labour and Corbyn were struggling before the last election campaign.

    Also I listened to an interesting episode of polling matters not long ago where they talked about the Don't Know groups tending to be younger and more female... groups that also tend Labour and Corbyn.

    There is also the lack of polling showing some great alertanate leader doing better. If it was so obvious why do we not have this proof? There was a poll a long time ago before GE17 when Corbyn was doing badly which showed him around the level or beating potential replacements.

    'Blind faith'

    hmm... I suspect yours is the blind faith, not only does the idea of Labour doing better under a different leader lack evidence it also seems to fly in the face of the evidence available.

    People want a different leader so they assert an electoral argument for doing so without actually doing any work to prove one.
    Look young jezziah, I’ve canvassed for two decades. Up until,very very recently those older white men, or ‘gammons’ as you call them, regularly voted labour. Now you can knock on a door and if an over 65 answers almost guarantee they’ll be Tory voting. Keep insulting them.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 22,042

    Pulpstar said:


    I suppose it’s all going to come down to whether she gets her deal. If she loses that, she’ll lose the subsequent VONC. If she wins she has a chance of surviving. Personally, I hope her deal gets well beaten. It’s a terrible deal.

    Nah, if she wins the vote on the deal then she is immediately more vulnerable to a VONC. If she loses heavily then it might be death by cabinet walkout.
    A narrow loss followed by a no deal pivot could see Tory remainers VONC her; a narrow loss followed by a 2nd referendum pivot probably sees her resign.

    Her surviving is the sum of the DUP not VONCing her in the event of the deal passing (Or being saved by Woodcock and a couple of others !), her being too stubborn to resign if she gets thrashed; Tory remainers being frit to VONC her in a no deal pivot and May wanting to fight the 'deal/leave' cause in another referendum.
    If May's deal gets through she will be significantly more insulated by an increase in her popularity in the country. She will be the new Maggie, sticking to her guns and getting stuff done through sheer bloody mindedness. There will be some level of rejoicing in the now pro-Deal Tory press and perhaps even in the country, which will be pleased to have it all over with. No way the Tories will move against her at that point. Maybe later in the year.
    Perish the thought
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 27,781

    Roger said:

    It's extraordinary to compare the UK stock market with those of Germany France the US Japan Europe. Since the Brexit result we've become a basket case. That's what happens when you have a PM whose only policy-as yet undeliverable-is Brexit means Brexit and a LOTO who doesn't know what a stock market is.

    Okay then Roger - compare them.

    Show us how the UK stock market has changed over the last 30 months and then give the comparisons with Germany, France etc
    Most EU nations outperformed the UK in 2017. This year, the U.K. has been in the middle of the pack.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 12,183
    Cyclefree said:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/business/trump-has-no-plans-to-sack-fed-chairman-qmthfqkx8

    This story is in part the reason why US banks are having meetings with the Treasury Secretary so that they can be reassured.

    It is worrying because the entire financial system is based on trust and confidence. Any problems in the US will rapidly affect us here.

    Trump has upset the Iraqis and the Afghans, has likely made it easier for IS to regroup, has sold out the Kurds and is now, at best, careless of the effects his words can have on the financial system. Alastair is right. 2019 could easily look a whole load worse than 2018.

    The stories from Syria appall:
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/world/syria-bodies/
    The Assad regime is every bit as brutal in its own way as ISIS.

    If the Turks go after the Kurds, Europe could well see another wave of refugees next year.
  • And in other grim news:

    https://www.politico.eu/article/tommy-robinson-ukip-uk-far-right-the-man-to-make-the-british-establishments-head-blow-off/

    Time will tell how much ballot box support Yaxley Lennon can command - but as we're seeing in France 'under the radar social media' can have a disruptive influence.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 3,081
    I agree with the header. I think the 'SW' will not go until 2021. I have that at 25/1 from a while ago and in a portfolio of the good, the bad & the ugly, that is definitely one of the good guys.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 9,074
    Roger said:

    It's extraordinary to compare the UK stock market with those of Germany France the US Japan Europe. Since the Brexit result we've become a basket case. That's what happens when you have a PM whose only policy-as yet undeliverable-is Brexit means Brexit and a LOTO who doesn't know what a stock market is.

    Pretty bad everywhere, with several bear markets around the world. Brexit is merely a minor part of the epidemic of self harm of the world trading systems.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 23,828
    Nigelb said:

    Cyclefree said:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/business/trump-has-no-plans-to-sack-fed-chairman-qmthfqkx8

    This story is in part the reason why US banks are having meetings with the Treasury Secretary so that they can be reassured.

    It is worrying because the entire financial system is based on trust and confidence. Any problems in the US will rapidly affect us here.

    Trump has upset the Iraqis and the Afghans, has likely made it easier for IS to regroup, has sold out the Kurds and is now, at best, careless of the effects his words can have on the financial system. Alastair is right. 2019 could easily look a whole load worse than 2018.

    The stories from Syria appall:
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/world/syria-bodies/
    The Assad regime is every bit as brutal in its own way as ISIS.

    If the Turks go after the Kurds, Europe could well see another wave of refugees next year.
    Regular readers may remember me warning about what would happen to the Kurds when the sick pro-Assad asshats on here got their way. I fear that I'm going to be proved right, and that the Kurds, perhaps the cleanest side in that nasty little conflict, and who fought on 'our' side, are going to be abandoned.

    As for it causing a wave of refugees through Europe; it might not. The Kurdish areas are away from the Mediterranean, and would have to pass through Assad-held territory. Likewise, the other easy route through Turkey will prove difficult for Kurds, especially non-Turkish kurds. Unless Assad or Erdogan want to cause mischief - but that might not be in their interests.

    Instead, expect problems to spread to Iraqi and Iranian Kurdish areas, and for increased terrorism by the Kurdish PKK in Turkey itself. Which itself would play into Erdogan's hands ...
  • stodgestodge Posts: 5,246

    Okay then Roger - compare them.

    Show us how the UK stock market has changed over the last 30 months and then give the comparisons with Germany, France etc


    On January 3rd 2014, the FTSE 100 stood at 6730 - it is currently at 6682. That's a whole lot of nowhere in nearly five years.


    The DJIA was 16470 on January 3rd 2014, it closed on Friday at 22445 which I make a 36.3% increase.


    The DAX has gone from 9435 to 10633 in the same period - a more modest 12.7% increase.

  • I can't see how May survives to the end of 2019 as Prime Minister.

    She's staked everything on her deal. If it fails to pass (quite likely) then I think she'll be gone - whether this be 'No deal' or 'Remain', if her preferred option fails, then she's gone. We'll know this pretty soon (in the next three months).

    If her deal passes, its either direct via the Commons, or failed at the Commons but 'passes' a referendum (somehow). This may give her a boost, but again I think she's now staking everything on the deal that as soon as it does pass, she'll think (or be told) 'Well done, job done, now bugger off thank you very much'.


    I can't really see any route to her staying, unless she adopts an attitude of ignoring all events/advice and carrying on regardless (hmmm, now I see the flaw in my original thoughts). Perhaps some sort of sequence of events where she gets the deal through, and then is immediately forced into a General Election (perhaps the Labour Party do VoNC her government with DUP support)[1] which she is forced to fight and comes out against the odds with a majority after all (and perhaps a healthy one) such that her position has been personally vindicated (perhaps twice - once by referendum and again by GE) by the voters and therefore the Men in Grey Suits no longer feel able to shuffle her along.


    [1] Corbyn, who I always suspected was a bit of an idiot has really disappointed me these last few weeks. Any other leader would've VoNCed the government - but Corbyn just loves harping from opposition. When faced with the prospect of actually taking power, and making decisions, he's completely unable to. JCWNBPM - not because he couldn't, but because if he ever found himself in that position of having won the General Election, he'd resign immediately as leader, just so he could go back to harping from the sidelines about how crap the government are.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 27,781
    Nigelb said:

    Cyclefree said:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/business/trump-has-no-plans-to-sack-fed-chairman-qmthfqkx8

    This story is in part the reason why US banks are having meetings with the Treasury Secretary so that they can be reassured.

    It is worrying because the entire financial system is based on trust and confidence. Any problems in the US will rapidly affect us here.

    Trump has upset the Iraqis and the Afghans, has likely made it easier for IS to regroup, has sold out the Kurds and is now, at best, careless of the effects his words can have on the financial system. Alastair is right. 2019 could easily look a whole load worse than 2018.

    The stories from Syria appall:
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/world/syria-bodies/
    The Assad regime is every bit as brutal in its own way as ISIS.

    If the Turks go after the Kurds, Europe could well see another wave of refugees next year.
    Assad is horrendously cruel. But ISIS are even worse.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 27,781

    Nigelb said:

    Cyclefree said:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/business/trump-has-no-plans-to-sack-fed-chairman-qmthfqkx8

    This story is in part the reason why US banks are having meetings with the Treasury Secretary so that they can be reassured.

    It is worrying because the entire financial system is based on trust and confidence. Any problems in the US will rapidly affect us here.

    Trump has upset the Iraqis and the Afghans, has likely made it easier for IS to regroup, has sold out the Kurds and is now, at best, careless of the effects his words can have on the financial system. Alastair is right. 2019 could easily look a whole load worse than 2018.

    The stories from Syria appall:
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/world/syria-bodies/
    The Assad regime is every bit as brutal in its own way as ISIS.

    If the Turks go after the Kurds, Europe could well see another wave of refugees next year.
    Regular readers may remember me warning about what would happen to the Kurds when the sick pro-Assad asshats on here got their way. I fear that I'm going to be proved right, and that the Kurds, perhaps the cleanest side in that nasty little conflict, and who fought on 'our' side, are going to be abandoned.

    As for it causing a wave of refugees through Europe; it might not. The Kurdish areas are away from the Mediterranean, and would have to pass through Assad-held territory. Likewise, the other easy route through Turkey will prove difficult for Kurds, especially non-Turkish kurds. Unless Assad or Erdogan want to cause mischief - but that might not be in their interests.

    Instead, expect problems to spread to Iraqi and Iranian Kurdish areas, and for increased terrorism by the Kurdish PKK in Turkey itself. Which itself would play into Erdogan's hands ...
    The Turks may not come off best in such a conflict.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 11,346
    edited December 2018
    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    It's extraordinary to compare the UK stock market with those of Germany France the US Japan Europe. Since the Brexit result we've become a basket case. That's what happens when you have a PM whose only policy-as yet undeliverable-is Brexit means Brexit and a LOTO who doesn't know what a stock market is.

    Pretty bad everywhere, with several bear markets around the world. Brexit is merely a minor part of the epidemic of self harm of the world trading systems.
    I compared it from March 20 2017 till today. If you go back from when the Tories got into power it's even worse
  • stodge said:

    Okay then Roger - compare them.

    Show us how the UK stock market has changed over the last 30 months and then give the comparisons with Germany, France etc


    On January 3rd 2014, the FTSE 100 stood at 6730 - it is currently at 6682. That's a whole lot of nowhere in nearly five years.


    The DJIA was 16470 on January 3rd 2014, it closed on Friday at 22445 which I make a 36.3% increase.


    The DAX has gone from 9435 to 10633 in the same period - a more modest 12.7% increase.

    You can't compare the level of the indices- you should be comparing overall return.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 11,346

    Roger said:

    It's extraordinary to compare the UK stock market with those of Germany France the US Japan Europe. Since the Brexit result we've become a basket case. That's what happens when you have a PM whose only policy-as yet undeliverable-is Brexit means Brexit and a LOTO who doesn't know what a stock market is.

    Okay then Roger - compare them.

    Show us how the UK stock market has changed over the last 30 months and then give the comparisons with Germany, France etc
    I went from March 29 2017 the date Article 50 was triggered.
This discussion has been closed.