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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » My Christmas eve bet that TMay will still be PM at the end of

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    notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006
    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:


    It’s werid, poverty (both ‘absolute’ and relative) have barely moved.

    Suspect true absolute poverty is near zero though.

    What has increased drastically is in-work poverty. A decade of wage stagnation and cheap money leading to asset inflation has made the Working Man feel much poorer, at the same time as politicians keep crowing how fucking lucky we are to be a cog in the capitalist machine.

    It really is no wonder that reactionary movements have swept across the western world. Everyone feels poorer, and we're told we're supposed to be happy about that.
    How can that increase yet poverty remain static?
    Fiddled statistics.
    Nope. The ons do not fiddle statistics. Try again.
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    notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006
    malcolmg said:

    notme2 said:

    The definition of relative poverty in uk is thus, net disposable income:

    Couple with two children over 5 £413 a week
    Single with two children over 5 £306 a week
    Couple with no children £255 a week
    Single with no children £148 a week.

    This is a net amount including income from employment, pensions and benefits, and also after income tax, council tax and national
    Insurance contributions.
    “These income levels are measured after housing costs, rent (before any housing benefit) water rates, mortgage interest payments and ground rents”

    What is the equivalent level of relative poverty in a similar country to ours, say France?
    £400 pound a week left after all your bills are paid is pure bollox. Average wage is about £26K in Scotland so that would mean just about everybody is in poverty.
    This is household. I’m merely quoting what the figures are for 60% h=average household income. Don’t blame me. But good you are seeing the futility of a relative poverty figure.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    edited December 2018
    notme2 said:

    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:


    It’s werid, poverty (both ‘absolute’ and relative) have barely moved.

    Suspect true absolute poverty is near zero though.

    What has increased drastically is in-work poverty. A decade of wage stagnation and cheap money leading to asset inflation has made the Working Man feel much poorer, at the same time as politicians keep crowing how fucking lucky we are to be a cog in the capitalist machine.

    It really is no wonder that reactionary movements have swept across the western world. Everyone feels poorer, and we're told we're supposed to be happy about that.
    How can that increase yet poverty remain static?
    Fiddled statistics.
    Nope. The ons do not fiddle statistics. Try again.
    What causes the discrepancy then? I don’t think relative or absolute poverty has changed at all in recent years.
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    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234


    It's my understanding that even someone who has an indefinite agreement to remain in someone else's spare room if they have one until a permanent solution is found is called homeless. It's not ideal but to me there should be another word for that.

    If you mean "rough sleeping" say that; we already have a phrase for it.

    The other forms of homelessness are not quite as awful as rough sleeping but they're pretty damn bad.

    The official definition tries to capture a broad class of homelessness, not limited to rough sleeping, but also people who are housed but having no fixed abode, or having a fixed abode with over-occupancy.

    These all need to be tracked and fixed.
  • Options
    notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006

    RobD said:


    It’s werid, poverty (both ‘absolute’ and relative) have barely moved.

    Suspect true absolute poverty is near zero though.

    What has increased drastically is in-work poverty. A decade of wage stagnation and cheap money leading to asset inflation has made the Working Man feel much poorer, at the same time as politicians keep crowing how fucking lucky we are to be a cog in the capitalist machine.

    It really is no wonder that reactionary movements have swept across the western world. Everyone feels poorer, and we're told we're supposed to be happy about that.

    Those at the bottom end of the wage earners though have gained massively from raising of tax allowance and national living wage. They’ve actually had a reasonable post inflation increase over the last few years.
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    notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006

    notme2 said:

    The definition of relative poverty in uk is thus, net disposable income:

    Couple with two children over 5 £413 a week
    Single with two children over 5 £306 a week
    Couple with no children £255 a week
    Single with no children £148 a week.

    This is a net amount including income from employment, pensions and benefits, and also after income tax, council tax and national
    Insurance contributions.
    “These income levels are measured after housing costs, rent (before any housing benefit) water rates, mortgage interest payments and ground rents”

    What is the equivalent level of relative poverty in a similar country to ours, say France?

    Just adjust to 60% household income after taxes etc etc. I would imagine not much different.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,862
    RobD said:

    notme2 said:

    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:


    It’s werid, poverty (both ‘absolute’ and relative) have barely moved.

    Suspect true absolute poverty is near zero though.

    What has increased drastically is in-work poverty. A decade of wage stagnation and cheap money leading to asset inflation has made the Working Man feel much poorer, at the same time as politicians keep crowing how fucking lucky we are to be a cog in the capitalist machine.

    It really is no wonder that reactionary movements have swept across the western world. Everyone feels poorer, and we're told we're supposed to be happy about that.
    How can that increase yet poverty remain static?
    Fiddled statistics.
    Nope. The ons do not fiddle statistics. Try again.
    What causes the discrepancy then? I don’t think relative or absolute poverty has changed at all in recent years.
    They may not fiddle them but when have the ONS ever been within a country mile on any statistics they publish. They are either biased or very incompetent.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,718


    It's my understanding that even someone who has an indefinite agreement to remain in someone else's spare room if they have one until a permanent solution is found is called homeless. It's not ideal but to me there should be another word for that.

    Somebody living in a spare room with no specific tenancy agreement is "living under licence". It is not a tenancy and you do not have the rights of a tenant. Your landlord can enter on demand without your consent and you can be evicted against your will. Such people have been described as "underhoused", which seems like a good phrase.


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    FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047

    notme2 said:

    The definition of relative poverty in uk is thus, net disposable income:

    Couple with two children over 5 £413 a week
    Single with two children over 5 £306 a week
    Couple with no children £255 a week
    Single with no children £148 a week.

    This is a net amount including income from employment, pensions and benefits, and also after income tax, council tax and national
    Insurance contributions.
    “These income levels are measured after housing costs, rent (before any housing benefit) water rates, mortgage interest payments and ground rents”

    What is the equivalent level of relative poverty in a similar country to ours, say France?
    This is hardly poverty
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    glwglw Posts: 9,549
    Honestly I've reached the point that I'm praying this is all some kind of crazy comedy performance art. "Good one Don, you had us all very worried for a while."
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,718
    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    notme2 said:

    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:


    It’s werid, poverty (both ‘absolute’ and relative) have barely moved.

    Suspect true absolute poverty is near zero though.

    What has increased drastically is in-work poverty. A decade of wage stagnation and cheap money leading to asset inflation has made the Working Man feel much poorer, at the same time as politicians keep crowing how fucking lucky we are to be a cog in the capitalist machine.

    It really is no wonder that reactionary movements have swept across the western world. Everyone feels poorer, and we're told we're supposed to be happy about that.
    How can that increase yet poverty remain static?
    Fiddled statistics.
    Nope. The ons do not fiddle statistics. Try again.
    What causes the discrepancy then? I don’t think relative or absolute poverty has changed at all in recent years.
    They may not fiddle them but when have the ONS ever been within a country mile on any statistics they publish. They are either biased or very incompetent.
    This makes me giggle. ONS figures are frequently updated but when they are, it tends to be around a quarter, a half, or sometimes a whole percentage point! Such inaccuracy! I dont know how they hold their head up when meeting Greece or Zambia at parties... 😀
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,862
    viewcode said:

    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    notme2 said:

    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:


    It’s werid, poverty (both ‘absolute’ and relative) have barely moved.

    Suspect true absolute poverty is near zero though.

    What has increased drastically is in-work poverty. A decade of wage stagnation and cheap money leading to asset inflation has made the Working Man feel much poorer, at the same time as politicians keep crowing how fucking lucky we are to be a cog in the capitalist machine.

    It really is no wonder that reactionary movements have swept across the western world. Everyone feels poorer, and we're told we're supposed to be happy about that.
    How can that increase yet poverty remain static?
    Fiddled statistics.
    Nope. The ons do not fiddle statistics. Try again.
    What causes the discrepancy then? I don’t think relative or absolute poverty has changed at all in recent years.
    They may not fiddle them but when have the ONS ever been within a country mile on any statistics they publish. They are either biased or very incompetent.
    This makes me giggle. ONS figures are frequently updated but when they are, it tends to be around a quarter, a half, or sometimes a whole percentage point! Such inaccuracy! I dont know how they hold their head up when meeting Greece or Zambia at parties... 😀
    They should listen intently and try to pick up a few tips on how to count.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    glw said:


    Honestly I've reached the point that I'm praying this is all some kind of crazy comedy performance art. "Good one Don, you had us all very worried for a while."

    https://twitter.com/VicBergerIV/status/1077040725823500288
  • Options
    Scott_P said:

    glw said:


    Honestly I've reached the point that I'm praying this is all some kind of crazy comedy performance art. "Good one Don, you had us all very worried for a while."

    https://twitter.com/VicBergerIV/status/1077040725823500288
    That's some hot Kim Jong-un trouser action.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    edited December 2018

    Scott_P said:

    glw said:


    Honestly I've reached the point that I'm praying this is all some kind of crazy comedy performance art. "Good one Don, you had us all very worried for a while."

    https://twitter.com/VicBergerIV/status/1077040725823500288
    That's some hot Kim Jong-un trouser action.
    It's also fake news.

    https://twitter.com/aMayzingAlyssaM/status/1077203367724634112
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,102
    The daughter of a vicar.....
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:

    glw said:


    Honestly I've reached the point that I'm praying this is all some kind of crazy comedy performance art. "Good one Don, you had us all very worried for a while."

    https://twitter.com/VicBergerIV/status/1077040725823500288
    That's some hot Kim Jong-un trouser action.
    It's also fake news.

    https://twitter.com/aMayzingAlyssaM/status/1077203367724634112
    It's a faaaaakkeee!
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,258
    A story on the BBC news: tons of shoppers from Ireland heading to the UK for a cheap Xmas shop, now that the £ has fallen so low. Congratulations, Brexiters, we are heading towards the position that Eastern Europe was to Germany in 1991.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,519
    glw said:

    Honestly I've reached the point that I'm praying this is all some kind of crazy comedy performance art. "Good one Don, you had us all very worried for a while."
    I’m almost liking his attempt to reintroduce eighteenth century style Capitalisation for random Nouns...

    Meantime, so interesting polling in putative presidential matchups:
    https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/422735-trump-beats-beto-nearly-ties-bernie-but-loses-to-biden-in

    Might just encourage Biden to make up his mind.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,718
    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:

    glw said:


    Honestly I've reached the point that I'm praying this is all some kind of crazy comedy performance art. "Good one Don, you had us all very worried for a while."

    https://twitter.com/VicBergerIV/status/1077040725823500288
    That's some hot Kim Jong-un trouser action.
    It's also fake news.

    https://twitter.com/aMayzingAlyssaM/status/1077203367724634112
    It's a faaaaakkeee!
    Yes, but when his shuttle explodes the imperfections will be thought to be damage and the evidence accepted. The Romulans will enter the war and you'll get everything you want. And all it costs is the life of one Romulan crew and the self respect of one Starfleet officer. I'd call that a bargain...
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    Mr. B2, about to be freed from decades of governance without accountability, breaking the shackles of an unwanted supra-national political institution? :p

    Good evening, everyone.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    viewcode said:

    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:

    glw said:


    Honestly I've reached the point that I'm praying this is all some kind of crazy comedy performance art. "Good one Don, you had us all very worried for a while."

    twitter.com/VicBergerIV/status/1077040725823500288
    That's some hot Kim Jong-un trouser action.
    It's also fake news.

    twitter.com/aMayzingAlyssaM/status/1077203367724634112
    It's a faaaaakkeee!
    Yes, but when his shuttle explodes the imperfections will be thought to be damage and the evidence accepted. The Romulans will enter the war and you'll get everything you want. And all it costs is the life of one Romulan crew and the self respect of one Starfleet officer. I'd call that a bargain...
    Damn, now I have to watch it again.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    IanB2 said:

    A story on the BBC news: tons of shoppers from Ireland heading to the UK for a cheap Xmas shop, now that the £ has fallen so low. Congratulations, Brexiters, we are heading towards the position that Eastern Europe was to Germany in 1991.

    Don't worry, there'll be a hard border there soon. :p
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,718
    RobD said:

    viewcode said:

    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:

    glw said:


    Honestly I've reached the point that I'm praying this is all some kind of crazy comedy performance art. "Good one Don, you had us all very worried for a while."

    twitter.com/VicBergerIV/status/1077040725823500288
    That's some hot Kim Jong-un trouser action.
    It's also fake news.

    twitter.com/aMayzingAlyssaM/status/1077203367724634112
    It's a faaaaakkeee!
    Yes, but when his shuttle explodes the imperfections will be thought to be damage and the evidence accepted. The Romulans will enter the war and you'll get everything you want. And all it costs is the life of one Romulan crew and the self respect of one Starfleet officer. I'd call that a bargain...
    Damn, now I have to watch it again.
    Then I have done you a good deed. Merry Xmas!
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    mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    IanB2 said:

    A story on the BBC news: tons of shoppers from Ireland heading to the UK for a cheap Xmas shop, now that the £ has fallen so low. Congratulations, Brexiters, we are heading towards the position that Eastern Europe was to Germany in 1991.

    You do understand that this isn’t the first time and that Tesco’s in Newry has been used to occasional super profits since 2002, don’t you? No, I thought not.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,258

    Mr. B2, about to be freed from decades of governance without accountability, breaking the shackles of an unwanted supra-national political institution? :p

    Good evening, everyone.

    Which is all bulls**t, as I suspect you already know.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    IanB2 said:

    Mr. B2, about to be freed from decades of governance without accountability, breaking the shackles of an unwanted supra-national political institution? :p

    Good evening, everyone.

    Which is all bulls**t, as I suspect you already know.
    I suppose to some the USSR was a welcome supra-national body. :D
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    Mr. B2, to be fair, it's normally ardent sceptics who compare the EU to the Soviet Union.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    New thread!
This discussion has been closed.