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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With just five days to go the PB/Alastair Meeks predictions fo

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited December 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With just five days to go the PB/Alastair Meeks predictions for 2019

Rarely has British politics faced such binary questions: Remain or Leave? Deal or no deal? Referendum or no referendum? What kind of a fool is going to make predictions about the coming year? Let me raise my hand.

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Comments

  • notme2notme2 Posts: 703
    First...
  • Charles said:


    Somebody mentioned yesterday a piece of second hand gossip ... about half of the civil servants in the Brexit department are stock piling food...

    Only a matter of time before the ladies are 'painting' stockings on with cold tea.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 22,867
    Thanks for this, Mr Meeks (and Merry Christmas to all).

    1 seems absolutely certain, unless there is a major black swan event to distract us

    Disagree with 2 and 3.

    Agree with 4

    Have no idea about 5

    Both May and Corbyn have shown amazing staying power against forces intra and extra their parties, and I think it's reasonable to assume that if they do leave, it will be at a time of their choosing. One might go (and May seems likeliest); both seems unlikely IMO. So 6 seems wrong to me.

    British politics will look similar, if only because British Politics is in a period of massive upheaval where the unexpected becomes expected. If you were to tell me that there would be PM Farage next year, I'd be surprised. He's not in a position to be PM, but given what's happened recently, can I really rule it out ... ?

    The real surprise would be if British politics is stable next year, where the biggest newsworthy political event is some politician having an affair.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Interesting predictions

    Well done for being brave and putting them forward. The only one i disagree with is the 2nd Ref. I think it would be less damaging not to have a referendum because it removes a bitter and highly divisive campaign. The entrenched opinions exist anyway
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 1,317
    A very cogent set of predictions.

    Alastair, dare I ask you for a supplementary on how you think the Lib Dems will have fared by this time next year?
  • tysontyson Posts: 4,531
    Alistair....your outlook is truly dystopic for the UK...

    FWIW....I've already squirrelled away some cash and meds for my dog, and food, and I'm no way as gloomy as your outlook....
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    SeanT said:

    tyson said:

    Alistair....your outlook is truly dystopic for the UK...

    FWIW....I've already squirrelled away some cash and meds for my dog, and food, and I'm no way as gloomy as your outlook....

    Well you've always got your extensive property portfolio to fall back on, given that you are a rentier class capitalist parasite who produces no actual benefit to society other than gouging the lease-paying poor.

    Yet you still claim to be a lefty, and you moan about Brexit. In the pubic mound that is homo sapiens, you are the suckling louse.
    I see it is going to be one of those nights.....

    In that case, goodnight everyone
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 10,621

    Interesting predictions

    Well done for being brave and putting them forward. The only one i disagree with is the 2nd Ref. I think it would be less damaging not to have a referendum because it removes a bitter and highly divisive campaign. The entrenched opinions exist anyway

    That would depend both on the circumstances and the putative referendum question(s).
    FWIW, I think it about 50/50.

    “Whatever happens, large groups of people are going to be appalled by what happens in the coming year....”
    That is a near 100% certainty.... I’m already dismayed at the political prospects for next year.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,287
    Bold predictions - fair play if we're saying how right you were this time next year.

    But I'm not sure I can see as much giving as that. what's the move that breaks the stalemate? T Mays deal is defeated, then what? It's a heck of a jump from there to the predictions above. Parliament can block spending on no-deal prep, but can they actually prevent us leaving without a deal?
  • Definitely no fence sitting Mr Meeks.

    If you score 5 or more that will be impressive.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 10,621
    And predictions for next year’s markets ?
    Things are getting a little weird...
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/dec/26/us-stock-markets-post-christmas-sp-500-dow-nasdaq
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 51,003
    May is not going to revoke Article 50 under any circumstances and the EU are unlikely to extend it without a firm commitment to EUref2 or the Deal.

    Thanks to the Grieve amendment both Norway Plus and EUref2 will likely be voted on by the Commons as well as the Deal and if the first two are voted down then Deal is more likely to pass as the only viable alternative to No Deal
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 7,199
    tyson said:

    Alistair....your outlook is truly dystopic for the UK...

    FWIW....I've already squirrelled away some cash and meds for my dog, and food, and I'm no way as gloomy as your outlook....

    Yes, daring predictions.

    I have a few tins of beans and a stiff upper lip.

    Are we not entertained?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 51,003
    edited December 2018
    SeanT said:

    FWIW - and not much - my genuine preferred outcome now would be a new two-stage referendum, first with TMay's deal Yes/no, then (presuming we'd say No). Remain/Revoke v No Deal (and I presume Remain would win)

    HOWEVER, and I am entirely serious, all this should only be done with the understanding that we have a simultaneous Royal Truth and Revenge Tribunal with the powers to send people before the courts on criminal charges: for betraying the sovereignty and interests of the British people while in political office.

    This would be aimed fairly and squarely at T Blair, G Brown, N Clegg, V Cable. P Ashdown (RIFP my arse), Heseltine & Clark, Cameron and Osborne, Lord Kerr and his near neighbours, and every single fucking significant quisling of a europhile who made us sign up to Article 50, without our consent, even when promising us explicitly to grant us the power of assent (which they then denied).

    That's the answer. That's how we heal the nation. Jail the europhiles, til they die. Accept that they also put us in the EU dungeon, and start over, inside, and *try* and reform from within.

    But as a eurosceptic I will not accept the failure of Brexit until the authors of that inevitable failure are brought to justice and made to suffer. In prison. Without Article 50 we could have left the EU in an amiable mess, longwinded and legalistic and bilateral. The people that forced A50 on us must pay.

    Otherwise, Crash-out Brexit and civil war. Fuck it.

    Actually 382 constituencies prefer the Deal head to head against either Remain or No Deal according to Yougov, there us a strong chance that even if there was an EUref2 with a Deal option the Deal would win it just as the public want the issue settled
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 7,073
    edited December 2018
    Very bold predictions Alastair.

    I honestly don't think you are going to repeat this year's successes with that lot. I'm expecting a much tamer year tbh; the opposite outcome for most of your points:

    - May's Deal to pass at the 2nd or 3rd attempt in February, against a backdrop of No Deal panic.
    - The UK to leave on the 29th March.
    - May to step down around Easter.
    - New Tory leader in the summer.
    - No GE in 2019
    - Jezza to soldier on.

    And me to continue with my terrible inability to make accurate predictions. :lol:
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 7,199
    Nigelb said:

    And predictions for next year’s markets ?
    Things are getting a little weird...
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/dec/26/us-stock-markets-post-christmas-sp-500-dow-nasdaq

    Such volatility is a bad omen IMO. I am holding tight though.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 7,073
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    And predictions for next year’s markets ?
    Things are getting a little weird...
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/dec/26/us-stock-markets-post-christmas-sp-500-dow-nasdaq

    Such volatility is a bad omen IMO. I am holding tight though.
    Yes agreed. And me too - though I have been jittery a couple of times.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 7,073
    edited December 2018
    tyson said:

    Alistair....your outlook is truly dystopic for the UK...

    FWIW....I've already squirrelled away some cash and meds for my dog, and food, and I'm no way as gloomy as your outlook....

    How much cash does your dog need to have squirrelled away? :smile:

    PS If he's anything like ours he'll forget where he's buried it!
  • Excellent and interesting analysis. Thank you. I disagree with 2,3 and therefore 4. TMs deal will go through on time for 29 March because though it seems improbable it is not impossible. The chances of the other options are lower as they already look impossibly dangerous and this can only get worse. TMs is the most possible and the least dangerous course. That's not saying much of course. As to 6 the crystal ball darkens completely. Agree with 5.

    1 and 7 could be regarded as bankers in one horse race!
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 10,207
    Thank you Alastair, what will the question be in the second referendum, same again?
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 2,176
    edited December 2018
    By way of comment on Aliatairs incisive predictions below is a post I made on 11 November covering much the same issues. So far it seems the wearing quite well......

    "I think the predictions of interminable disputes about the UKs relationship with Europe is overdone and it is more likely that the issue will drop down the political agenda as it did for most of the period from 1980 until the 2010-15 parliament.

    I'm going to stick my neck out and predict how I think events will develop. I expect

    i May will not be able to put together a deal acceptable to both parliament and the EU, it's quite likely that we will get to January next year without a deal ready to put to parliament;

    ii At some point between now and February, probably sooner rather than later, an atmopsohere of panic will develop, supermarkets will begin to warn of food shortages, there will be pressure on sterling and business groups will warn of immediate threats to jobs and essential supplies,

    iii It will become clear that the country is about to rush headlong over a cliff with incalculable consequences, this will lead to immense pressure on MPs to take emergency action, the only option open to them will be to seek terms from the EU to suspend the widrawal process to allow another referendum to take place,

    iv Another referendum will produce a majority for remain significantly larger than the majority for leave in the first one,

    v In future leavers will still be a political force, rather as former communists are a political force in Eastern Europe, but it will be clear that their ideas are discredited and cannot be implemented in the way they suggest. They will not get near to government again for the foreseeable future.

    So I'm actually quite optimistic that we can put the disasters of the past few years behind us. It will take time but it can be done."
  • RobDRobD Posts: 36,065

    By way of comment on Aliatairs incisive predictions below is a post I made on 11 November covering much the same issues. So far it seems the wearing quite well......

    "I think the predictions of interminable disputes about the UKs relationship with Europe is overdone and it is more likely that the issue will drop down the political agenda as it did for most of the period from 1980 until the 2010-15 parliament.

    I'm going to stick my neck out and predict how I think events will develop. I expect

    i May will not be able to put together a deal acceptable to both parliament and the EU, it's quite likely that we will get to January next year without a deal ready to put to parliament;

    ii At some point between now and February, probably sooner rather than later, an atmopsohere of panic will develop, supermarkets will begin to warn of food shortages, there will be pressure on sterling and business groups will warn of immediate threats to jobs and essential supplies,

    iii It will become clear that the country is about to rush headlong over a cliff with incalculable consequences, this will lead to immense pressure on MPs to take emergency action, the only option open to them will be to seek terms from the EU to suspend the widrawal process to allow another referendum to take place,

    iv Another referendum will produce a majority for remain significantly larger than the majority for leave in the first one,

    v In future leavers will still be a political force, rather as former communists are a political force in Eastern Europe, but it will be clear that their ideas are discredited and cannot be implemented in the way they suggest. They will not get near to government again for the foreseeable future.

    So I'm actually quite optimistic that we can put the disasters of the past few years behind us. It will take time but it can be done."

    Well on point i) the deal is ready. Parliament just needs to accept it.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 2,176
    RobD said:

    By way of comment on Aliatairs incisive predictions below is a post I made on 11 November covering much the same issues. So far it seems the wearing quite well......

    "I think the predictions of interminable disputes about the UKs relationship with Europe is overdone and it is more likely that the issue will drop down the political agenda as it did for most of the period from 1980 until the 2010-15 parliament.

    I'm going to stick my neck out and predict how I think events will develop. I expect

    i May will not be able to put together a deal acceptable to both parliament and the EU, it's quite likely that we will get to January next year without a deal ready to put to parliament;

    ii At some point between now and February, probably sooner rather than later, an atmopsohere of panic will develop, supermarkets will begin to warn of food shortages, there will be pressure on sterling and business groups will warn of immediate threats to jobs and essential supplies,

    iii It will become clear that the country is about to rush headlong over a cliff with incalculable consequences, this will lead to immense pressure on MPs to take emergency action, the only option open to them will be to seek terms from the EU to suspend the widrawal process to allow another referendum to take place,

    iv Another referendum will produce a majority for remain significantly larger than the majority for leave in the first one,

    v In future leavers will still be a political force, rather as former communists are a political force in Eastern Europe, but it will be clear that their ideas are discredited and cannot be implemented in the way they suggest. They will not get near to government again for the foreseeable future.

    So I'm actually quite optimistic that we can put the disasters of the past few years behind us. It will take time but it can be done."

    Well on point i) the deal is ready. Parliament just needs to accept it.
    But that's my point. May has not got a deal acceptable to parliament.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 36,065

    RobD said:

    By way of comment on Aliatairs incisive predictions below is a post I made on 11 November covering much the same issues. So far it seems the wearing quite well......

    "I think the predictions of interminable disputes about the UKs relationship with Europe is overdone and it is more likely that the issue will drop down the political agenda as it did for most of the period from 1980 until the 2010-15 parliament.

    I'm going to stick my neck out and predict how I think events will develop. I expect

    i May will not be able to put together a deal acceptable to both parliament and the EU, it's quite likely that we will get to January next year without a deal ready to put to parliament;

    ii At some point between now and February, probably sooner rather than later, an atmopsohere of panic will develop, supermarkets will begin to warn of food shortages, there will be pressure on sterling and business groups will warn of immediate threats to jobs and essential supplies,

    iii It will become clear that the country is about to rush headlong over a cliff with incalculable consequences, this will lead to immense pressure on MPs to take emergency action, the only option open to them will be to seek terms from the EU to suspend the widrawal process to allow another referendum to take place,

    iv Another referendum will produce a majority for remain significantly larger than the majority for leave in the first one,

    v In future leavers will still be a political force, rather as former communists are a political force in Eastern Europe, but it will be clear that their ideas are discredited and cannot be implemented in the way they suggest. They will not get near to government again for the foreseeable future.

    So I'm actually quite optimistic that we can put the disasters of the past few years behind us. It will take time but it can be done."

    Well on point i) the deal is ready. Parliament just needs to accept it.
    But that's my point. May has not got a deal acceptable to parliament.
    We shall see, I suspect they’ll end up agreeing to it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 10,621
    edited December 2018
    How the Brexit denouement unfolds depends to an unusual extent on the pressured decisions of MPs over the next couple of months.
    To predict which they will jump when faced with decisions which will determine in rather unpredictable fashion the future of both the country and their careers is not exactly a simple matter.

    Its contemplation has apparently already driven Sean bonkers, so I’m temporarily abandoning the effort, for the sake of my sanity.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 11,900

    Very bold predictions Alastair.

    I honestly don't think you are going to repeat this year's successes with that lot. I'm expecting a much tamer year tbh; the opposite outcome for most of your points:

    - May's Deal to pass at the 2nd or 3rd attempt in February, against a backdrop of No Deal panic.
    - The UK to leave on the 29th March.
    - May to step down around Easter.
    - New Tory leader in the summer.
    - No GE in 2019
    - Jezza to soldier on.

    And me to continue with my terrible inability to make accurate predictions. :lol:

    I agree with Ben's predictions. I think that Tory backbenchers are now generally looking for an excuse to fall into line, and an excuse will be provided. That would be a reasonable high of sorts for May to retire on. Jezza will be fine - the people who are grumpy about him are largely those who were already grumpy. The one element of Ben's predictions that I'm doubtful about is "no election" - won't the new Tory leader seize the opportunity for a potential mandate, rather than struggle for 3 years?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 51,003

    RobD said:

    By way of comment on Aliatairs incisive predictions below is a post I made on 11 November covering much the same issues. So far it seems the wearing quite well......

    "I think the predictions of interminable disputes about the UKs relationship with Europe is overdone and it is more likely that the issue will drop down the political agenda as it did for most of the period from 1980 until the 2010-15 parliament.

    I'm going to stick my neck out and predict how I think events will develop. I expect

    i May will not be able to put together a deal acceptable to both parliament and the EU, it's quite likely that we will get to January next year without a deal ready to put to parliament;

    ii At some point between now and February, probably sooner rather than later, an atmopsohere of panic will develop, supermarkets will begin to warn of food shortages, there will be pressure on sterling and business groups will warn of immediate threats to jobs and essential supplies,

    iii It will become clear that the country is about to rush headlong over a cliff with incalculable consequences, this will lead to immense pressure on MPs to take emergency action, the only option open to them will be to seek terms from the EU to suspend the widrawal process to allow another referendum to take place,

    iv Another referendum will produce a majority for remain significantly larger than the majority for leave in the first one,

    v In future leavers will still be a political force, rather as former communists are a political force in Eastern Europe, but it will be clear that their ideas are discredited and cannot be implemented in the way they suggest. They will not get near to government again for the foreseeable future.

    So I'm actually quite optimistic that we can put the disasters of the past few years behind us. It will take time but it can be done."

    Well on point i) the deal is ready. Parliament just needs to accept it.
    But that's my point. May has not got a deal acceptable to parliament.
    No Deal is unacceptable to Parliament, as most likely are EUref2 and Norway plus once they are voted down leaving the Deal as the default
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 6,349
    No way that the Tories or Labour will allow the leader of a smaller party to become PM!
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 11,900
    justin124 said:

    No way that the Tories or Labour will allow the leader of a smaller party to become PM!

    Agreed - would only work if there really was a massive defection of MPs, and I can't see it.
  • Great piece, agree with all points
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 4,973
    Didn't do too badly last time, will have another go. Feels a very tough year to predict.
    1) Brexit will still be a big issue.
    2) Negative growth for at least one quarter in 2019.
    3) The May deal will not pass.
    4) A deal will pass, with a proviso that there will be a referendum on it.
    5) We won't leave in March but may do later.
    6) There will be a general election this year.
  • Mays deal fulfils the referendum and delivers Brexit - that it so enrages leavers who insist it doesn't is comedy gold. However, the deal will not pass the Commons and that only leaves May one option to het it through - a referendum.

    We're going to be in the position where May - whose party insists no referendum- will call one over their heads. And Corbyn - whose party insists on one - will be arguing against it. Which ultimately will be the downfall of both.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 1,154
    edited December 2018
    On 2. I think Extension may be attempted, but will likely be rejected by some of the 27, and thus panic revocation may be the only way parliament can act.

    3. A fresh referendum may not be the one we expect nor at the time we expect. For example, a post revocation referendum may simply seek to strike out the result of the 2016 referendum, without a formal Remain counter instruction to fulfil (given that Remain would be delivered by revocation on day 1).

    6. If you suggest a single issue government as a likely route out, you need to acknowledge that it is not going to readily morph into a fully functioning, 3 year government. How and to whom it cedes, or seeks to broaden, power becomes the central consideration in deciding the next election date and, at that point, 2022 is no longer favourite.

    Given this, the discussion sections under 5 and 6, though not actually the headline predictions themselves, seem mutually incompatible.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited December 2018
    May's deal will be voted down in the Meaningful vote.

    No other deal will be promoted by the government.

    Which means we default to WTO Deal, also known as managed No Deal (In their own interests the EU will have to cooperate to make it a managed deal).

    This will mean a short postponement of Leaving from end March to end May.

    It will also be the end of May as her Cabinet disintegrates.
  • tlg86 said:

    Thank you Alastair, what will the question be in the second referendum, same again?

    We have alreadt voted to Leave. No need to ask again.
  • Nigelb said:

    And predictions for next year’s markets ?
    Things are getting a little weird...
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/dec/26/us-stock-markets-post-christmas-sp-500-dow-nasdaq

    Market prediction.

    After further falls the US market will eventually recover to be above the current level and the UK market will continue to drift down.
  • Foxy said:

    tyson said:

    Alistair....your outlook is truly dystopic for the UK...

    FWIW....I've already squirrelled away some cash and meds for my dog, and food, and I'm no way as gloomy as your outlook....

    Yes, daring predictions.

    I have a few tins of beans and a stiff upper lip.

    Are we not entertained?
    No tins of pineapple?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 10,459
    edited December 2018

    Mays deal fulfils the referendum and delivers Brexit - that it so enrages leavers who insist it doesn't is comedy gold. However, the deal will not pass the Commons and that only leaves May one option to het it through - a referendum.

    We're going to be in the position where May - whose party insists no referendum- will call one over their heads. And Corbyn - whose party insists on one - will be arguing against it. Which ultimately will be the downfall of both.

    Aside from whether this will happen, I reckon both leaders could get through this with their hands clean and their jobs safe.

    Corbyn doesn't really have to expose himself either way. If the initiative comes from SNP/LD/Lab-Remain-MPs, he can let his MPs have a free vote and stick to denouncing the government's terrible deal that has let down leavers and remainers alike. Remainers are narked off with him for failing to take a lead but what they really care about is the outcome; If they get their referendum, it's hard to see them holding an enduring grudge. (If this is tried and fails because Corbyn opposes they'll hate him forever, though...)

    For May it's harder - she'd take some heat for letting a referendum happen, even if she had a good argument that parliament forced her into it. If her deal wins, she's vindicated and the Leavers aren't too mad, but if Remain wins, a significant chunk of her party will hate her forever. But the same dynamics that have kept her in place until now could still hold: There's a chunk of the membership that's angry and bonkers. What's worse, if they just lost a referendum, they're out-of-step with the majority of the voters, and obsessing over something that the voters are royally sick of. Meanwhile the majority of MPs aren't angry or bonkers, they just want to keep their jobs. The only way to make sure the membership don't inflict a Tory Jeremy Corbyn on them is to let Theresa May stay for as long as she will deign to serve, which if Corbyn's health permits is at least until 2027, and maybe 2032.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 245
    I predict the 3rd or 4th iteration of May's deal to be passed at the eleventh hour.

    My feeling is that, barring the most recalcitrant MP's on either end of the spectrum, there will be little real appetite when it comes to the crunch for taking one of the other, far more complicated and fraught, routes out of the mess.

    And when we do leave I expect the subject of Brexit to become almost taboo with normal voters such is the bitterness and angst the process has created.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 24,742
    "Europe Elects
    @EuropeElects
    Dec 23

    UK, Opinium poll:

    LAB-S&D: 39%
    CON-ECR: 39% (+1)
    LDEM-ALDE: 6% (-2)
    UKIP-EFDD: 6%
    GREENS-G/EFA: 4%
    SNP-G/EFA: 4%
    PC-G/EFA: 0% (-1)

    +/- 13–14 Dec. '18

    Field work: 18/12/18 – 20/12/18
    Sample size: 1,139
    http://europeelects.eu/uk"
  • AndyJS said:

    "Europe Elects
    @EuropeElects
    Dec 23

    UK, Opinium poll:

    LAB-S&D: 39%
    CON-ECR: 39% (+1)
    LDEM-ALDE: 6% (-2)
    UKIP-EFDD: 6%
    GREENS-G/EFA: 4%
    SNP-G/EFA: 4%
    PC-G/EFA: 0% (-1)

    +/- 13–14 Dec. '18

    Field work: 18/12/18 – 20/12/18
    Sample size: 1,139
    http://europeelects.eu/uk"

    Lib Dem clear policy for another referendum and to vote Remain next time is losing them support amongst voters.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 3,055

    RobD said:

    By way of comment on Aliatairs incisive predictions below is a post I made on 11 November covering much the same issues. So far it seems the wearing quite well......

    "I think the predictions of interminable disputes about the UKs relationship with Europe is overdone and it is more likely that the issue will drop down the political agenda as it did for most of the period from 1980 until the 2010-15 parliament.

    I'm going to stick my neck out and predict how I think events will develop. I expect

    i May will not be able to put together a deal acceptable to both parliament and the EU, it's quite likely that we will get to January next year without a deal ready to put to parliament;

    ii At some point between now and February, probably sooner rather than later, an atmopsohere of panic will develop, supermarkets will begin to warn of food shortages, there will be pressure on sterling and business groups will warn of immediate threats to jobs and essential supplies,

    iii It will become clear that the country is about to rush headlong over a cliff with incalculable consequences, this will lead to immense pressure on MPs to take emergency action, the only option open to them will be to seek terms from the EU to suspend the widrawal process to allow another referendum to take place,

    iv Another referendum will produce a majority for remain significantly larger than the majority for leave in the first one,

    v In future leavers will still be a political force, rather as former communists are a political force in Eastern Europe, but it will be clear that their ideas are discredited and cannot be implemented in the way they suggest. They will not get near to government again for the foreseeable future.

    So I'm actually quite optimistic that we can put the disasters of the past few years behind us. It will take time but it can be done."

    Well on point i) the deal is ready. Parliament just needs to accept it.
    But that's my point. May has not got a deal acceptable to parliament.
    Which she fucking knew at the time she was agreeing it with the EU!
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 245
    AndyJS said:

    "Europe Elects
    @EuropeElects
    Dec 23

    UK, Opinium poll:

    LAB-S&D: 39%
    CON-ECR: 39% (+1)
    LDEM-ALDE: 6% (-2)
    UKIP-EFDD: 6%
    GREENS-G/EFA: 4%
    SNP-G/EFA: 4%
    PC-G/EFA: 0% (-1)

    +/- 13–14 Dec. '18

    Field work: 18/12/18 – 20/12/18
    Sample size: 1,139
    http://europeelects.eu/uk"


    2017 GE

    Parties supporting Brexit: 84%

    Parties supporting Remain: 14%
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,972
    edited December 2018
    SunnyJim said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Europe Elects
    @EuropeElects
    Dec 23

    UK, Opinium poll:

    LAB-S&D: 39%
    CON-ECR: 39% (+1)
    LDEM-ALDE: 6% (-2)
    UKIP-EFDD: 6%
    GREENS-G/EFA: 4%
    SNP-G/EFA: 4%
    PC-G/EFA: 0% (-1)

    +/- 13–14 Dec. '18

    Field work: 18/12/18 – 20/12/18
    Sample size: 1,139
    http://europeelects.eu/uk"


    2017 GE

    Parties supporting Brexit: 84%

    Parties supporting Remain: 14%
    Except that is bollocks. The majority of LAB voters and MPs are remainers. It is just the leadership, the Milne/Corbyn gang, is out of step with party voters - a highly dangerous situation.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 8,234
    My predictions.

    The inevitable and overdue Brexit crisis will hit early next year. No fudge is available. There are no unicorns. No sunlit uplands. The Brexit contradictions must and will be resolved and it will take a crisis to do so .

    No Deal is possible but that will just aggravate the crisis.

    A second referendum is tricky but possible. It may not resolve Brexit.

    I predict we will sign the Withdrawal Agreement next year, because the EU won't talk to us otherwise. There is no other reliable way out of the crisis.

    Will we sign it before 29th March, and if not, will it be a period of No Deal or a temporary extension to A50? I have no idea.

    Eventually I think we will most likely end up in the Vassal State, accepting EU rules but having no say over them, and trying to tag onto EU third country arrangements. I don't think that will be resolved by the end of next year however. More likely a slow burn of cliff edges will lead us there. In the meantime Remainers will rightly blame Leavers for putting us into this mess, while Leavers will deny all responsibility and deflect blame onto useful "elites" for the failure of their project.

    Incidentally quite the jump from "350 million a week for the NHS" to "Stop the Brexit betrayal" on the side of a bus
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,972
    edited December 2018

    AndyJS said:

    "Europe Elects
    @EuropeElects
    Dec 23

    UK, Opinium poll:

    LAB-S&D: 39%
    CON-ECR: 39% (+1)
    LDEM-ALDE: 6% (-2)
    UKIP-EFDD: 6%
    GREENS-G/EFA: 4%
    SNP-G/EFA: 4%
    PC-G/EFA: 0% (-1)

    +/- 13–14 Dec. '18

    Field work: 18/12/18 – 20/12/18
    Sample size: 1,139
    http://europeelects.eu/uk"

    Lib Dem clear policy for another referendum and to vote Remain next time is losing them support amongst voters.
    If this was supported by other poling you would be correct. It isn't. Choosing an outlier to make an argument is rubbish. BMG 13 days earlier had the LDs on 12% or double this.

    Go look at the effing numbers and look for big trends if you want to come here with your polling analysis.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 245

    AndyJS said:

    "Europe Elects
    @EuropeElects
    Dec 23

    UK, Opinium poll:

    LAB-S&D: 39%
    CON-ECR: 39% (+1)
    LDEM-ALDE: 6% (-2)
    UKIP-EFDD: 6%
    GREENS-G/EFA: 4%
    SNP-G/EFA: 4%
    PC-G/EFA: 0% (-1)

    +/- 13–14 Dec. '18

    Field work: 18/12/18 – 20/12/18
    Sample size: 1,139
    http://europeelects.eu/uk"

    Lib Dem clear policy for another referendum and to vote Remain next time is losing them support amongst voters.
    If this was supported by other poling you would be correct. It isn't. Choosing an outlier to make an argument is rubbish. BMG 13 days earlier had the LDs on 12% or double this.

    Go look at the effing numbers and look for big trends if you want to come here with your polling analysis.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    BMG looks like the outlier to me according to your link.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 26,045
    SunnyJim said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Europe Elects
    @EuropeElects
    Dec 23

    UK, Opinium poll:

    LAB-S&D: 39%
    CON-ECR: 39% (+1)
    LDEM-ALDE: 6% (-2)
    UKIP-EFDD: 6%
    GREENS-G/EFA: 4%
    SNP-G/EFA: 4%
    PC-G/EFA: 0% (-1)

    +/- 13–14 Dec. '18

    Field work: 18/12/18 – 20/12/18
    Sample size: 1,139
    http://europeelects.eu/uk"


    2017 GE

    Parties supporting Brexit: 84%

    Parties supporting Remain: 14%
    Parities opposing Brexit according to May won over 17 million votes (Labour, SNP, Lib Dems, Sinn Fein, Plaid Cymru, Green, SDLP, Alliance). Nearly 3 million more than the parties supporting Brexit.

  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 3,356

    AndyJS said:

    "Europe Elects
    @EuropeElects
    Dec 23

    UK, Opinium poll:

    LAB-S&D: 39%
    CON-ECR: 39% (+1)
    LDEM-ALDE: 6% (-2)
    UKIP-EFDD: 6%
    GREENS-G/EFA: 4%
    SNP-G/EFA: 4%
    PC-G/EFA: 0% (-1)

    +/- 13–14 Dec. '18

    Field work: 18/12/18 – 20/12/18
    Sample size: 1,139
    http://europeelects.eu/uk"

    Lib Dem clear policy for another referendum and to vote Remain next time is losing them support amongst voters.
    I don't think the Lib Dems would gain much support by switching to supporting Brexit right now. Though they would get the MP for Eastbourne back.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 11,173

    SunnyJim said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Europe Elects
    @EuropeElects
    Dec 23

    UK, Opinium poll:

    LAB-S&D: 39%
    CON-ECR: 39% (+1)
    LDEM-ALDE: 6% (-2)
    UKIP-EFDD: 6%
    GREENS-G/EFA: 4%
    SNP-G/EFA: 4%
    PC-G/EFA: 0% (-1)

    +/- 13–14 Dec. '18

    Field work: 18/12/18 – 20/12/18
    Sample size: 1,139
    http://europeelects.eu/uk"


    2017 GE

    Parties supporting Brexit: 84%

    Parties supporting Remain: 14%
    Except that is bollocks. The majority of LAB voters and MPs are remainers. It is just the leadership, the Milne/Corbyn gang, is out of step with party voters - a highly dangerous situation.
    The Manifesto supported BREXIT. Labour added a 50 year record increase in votes.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 26,045

    SunnyJim said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Europe Elects
    @EuropeElects
    Dec 23

    UK, Opinium poll:

    LAB-S&D: 39%
    CON-ECR: 39% (+1)
    LDEM-ALDE: 6% (-2)
    UKIP-EFDD: 6%
    GREENS-G/EFA: 4%
    SNP-G/EFA: 4%
    PC-G/EFA: 0% (-1)

    +/- 13–14 Dec. '18

    Field work: 18/12/18 – 20/12/18
    Sample size: 1,139
    http://europeelects.eu/uk"


    2017 GE

    Parties supporting Brexit: 84%

    Parties supporting Remain: 14%
    Except that is bollocks. The majority of LAB voters and MPs are remainers. It is just the leadership, the Milne/Corbyn gang, is out of step with party voters - a highly dangerous situation.
    The Manifesto supported BREXIT. Labour added a 50 year record increase in votes.
    Voting Labour was the most effective way to deny a majority for May’s Brexit.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 11,173

    Foxy said:

    tyson said:

    Alistair....your outlook is truly dystopic for the UK...

    FWIW....I've already squirrelled away some cash and meds for my dog, and food, and I'm no way as gloomy as your outlook....

    Yes, daring predictions.

    I have a few tins of beans and a stiff upper lip.

    Are we not entertained?
    No tins of pineapple?
    A must for any decent Pizza
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 7,199

    Foxy said:

    tyson said:

    Alistair....your outlook is truly dystopic for the UK...

    FWIW....I've already squirrelled away some cash and meds for my dog, and food, and I'm no way as gloomy as your outlook....

    Yes, daring predictions.

    I have a few tins of beans and a stiff upper lip.

    Are we not entertained?
    No tins of pineapple?
    A must for any decent Pizza
    We'll have none of that foreign muck after Brexit. Pease pudding hot, pease pudding cold...
  • A very cogent set of predictions.

    Alastair, dare I ask you for a supplementary on how you think the Lib Dems will have fared by this time next year?

    Definitely no fence sitting Mr Meeks.

    If you score 5 or more that will be impressive.

    Nigelb said:

    And predictions for next year’s markets ?
    Things are getting a little weird...
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/dec/26/us-stock-markets-post-christmas-sp-500-dow-nasdaq

    tlg86 said:

    Thank you Alastair, what will the question be in the second referendum, same again?

    I’ve nailed enough colours to my mast for now! If I score 5 or more I’m going to go into predicting lottery numbers.
  • PBers interested in linguistics and Brexit should consider The Language of Brexit: How Britain Talked Its Way Out of the European Union whose research-based thesis is that the Leave campaign used more unequivocally positive language in its messages than the Remain campaign which typically hedged its endorsements of the EU, damning the EU with faint praise, even when not wholly negative.

    https://www.bloomsbury.com/uk/the-language-of-brexit-9781350047976/
  • daodaodaodao Posts: 821

    SunnyJim said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Europe Elects
    @EuropeElects
    Dec 23

    UK, Opinium poll:

    LAB-S&D: 39%
    CON-ECR: 39% (+1)
    LDEM-ALDE: 6% (-2)
    UKIP-EFDD: 6%
    GREENS-G/EFA: 4%
    SNP-G/EFA: 4%
    PC-G/EFA: 0% (-1)

    +/- 13–14 Dec. '18

    Field work: 18/12/18 – 20/12/18
    Sample size: 1,139
    http://europeelects.eu/uk"


    2017 GE

    Parties supporting Brexit: 84%

    Parties supporting Remain: 14%
    Parities opposing Brexit according to May won over 17 million votes (Labour, SNP, Lib Dems, Sinn Fein, Plaid Cymru, Green, SDLP, Alliance). Nearly 3 million more than the parties supporting Brexit.

    The Labour party manifesto in GE2017 supported Brexit, as did a sizeable chunk (may be 40%) of their voters at that GE.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 7,199
    edited December 2018

    PBers interested in linguistics and Brexit should consider The Language of Brexit: How Britain Talked Its Way Out of the European Union whose research-based thesis is that the Leave campaign used more unequivocally positive language in its messages than the Remain campaign which typically hedged its endorsements of the EU, damning the EU with faint praise, even when not wholly negative.

    https://www.bloomsbury.com/uk/the-language-of-brexit-9781350047976/

    At the time of the campaign I was saying that Remain was being too negative, and concentrated too much on economics. One of the decisive reasons Remain won in 1975 was espousing a positive vision. People need a vision.

    I see some prospect of a more positive approach in the next referendum* while Leave goes more negative. People are becoming increasingly aware of what we are losing by Leaving, and the putative benefits of Brexit are increasingly looking like rather thin gruel.

    *I think that the WA will probably pass, but not at the first attempt, so a #peoplesvote for Rejoin may well occur during the WA. Leavers should be happy with that, as we will have Brexited, before we implement the Rejoin result.
  • The Labour manifesto supported a form of Brexit that does not exist and cannot be negotiated. For Labour voters who supported the concept of Brexit that was enough. For Labour voters opposed to the concept of Brexit that was enough. Corbyns only prayer is somehow to replicate the actual referendum campaign and be unseen and irrelevant - his entire strategy is to let the Tories get on with it and blame them. He demands the things he knows he can't have (a general election) knowing he won't get one. His fear has to be that somehow the Tories implode putting him on the spot.

    Should a referendum be proposed by May to save her deal (and I've said that she will have to to save her deal and her job) what does Corbyn do? If he supports he pisses off the Labour Brexit voters. If he opposes he pisses off Labour remain voters. Labour MPs - already operating autonomously and cross party taking the WhatsApp whip - will be given a free vote
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 10,621
    China appears to be learning from Putin’s tactics:
    https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-Relations/China-uses-Taiwan-as-R-D-lab-to-disrupt-democracies
    At present, China has less ability to affect American politics than Russia, but by using Taiwan as a propaganda laboratory that could soon change, said Yi-Suo Tzeng, acting director of the Cyber Warfare and Information Security division at Taiwan's Institute for National Defense and Security Research.

    "As they accumulate knowledge and test their algorithms, I think within two years we will probably see China having the capability to use cybertools to intervene in the U.S. election," Tzeng told the Nikkei Asian Review. Although he described Beijing's current approach to exercising political influence in the U.S. as "old-school," Tzeng said Beijing is improving quickly....
  • daodaodaodao Posts: 821
    Foxy said:

    PBers interested in linguistics and Brexit should consider The Language of Brexit: How Britain Talked Its Way Out of the European Union whose research-based thesis is that the Leave campaign used more unequivocally positive language in its messages than the Remain campaign which typically hedged its endorsements of the EU, damning the EU with faint praise, even when not wholly negative.

    https://www.bloomsbury.com/uk/the-language-of-brexit-9781350047976/

    At the time of the campaign I was saying that Remain was being too negative, and concentrated too much on economics. One of the decisive reasons Remain won in 1975 was espousing a positive vision. People need a vision.

    I see some prospect of a more positive approach in the next referendum* while Leave goes more negative. People are becoming increasingly aware of what we are losing by Leaving, and the putative benefits of Brexit are increasingly looking like rather thin gruel.

    *I think that the WA will probably pass, but not at the first attempt, so a #peoplesvote for Rejoin may well occur during the WA. Leavers should be happy with that, as we will have Brexited, before we implement the Rejoin result.
    Rejoining the EU should only occur if people wish to sign up for ever closer union under German hegemony, namely joining Schengen, the Euro, a common defence/foreign policy with a European defence force replacing NATO, etc. There would be no rebate. The UK is better out of the EU, for their sake as well as that of the UK, unless it wholeheartedly signs up for the full deal.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 10,621
    daodao said:

    Foxy said:

    PBers interested in linguistics and Brexit should consider The Language of Brexit: How Britain Talked Its Way Out of the European Union whose research-based thesis is that the Leave campaign used more unequivocally positive language in its messages than the Remain campaign which typically hedged its endorsements of the EU, damning the EU with faint praise, even when not wholly negative.

    https://www.bloomsbury.com/uk/the-language-of-brexit-9781350047976/

    At the time of the campaign I was saying that Remain was being too negative, and concentrated too much on economics. One of the decisive reasons Remain won in 1975 was espousing a positive vision. People need a vision.

    I see some prospect of a more positive approach in the next referendum* while Leave goes more negative. People are becoming increasingly aware of what we are losing by Leaving, and the putative benefits of Brexit are increasingly looking like rather thin gruel.

    *I think that the WA will probably pass, but not at the first attempt, so a #peoplesvote for Rejoin may well occur during the WA. Leavers should be happy with that, as we will have Brexited, before we implement the Rejoin result.
    Rejoining the EU should only occur if people wish to sign up for ever closer union under German hegemony, namely joining Schengen, the Euro, a common defence/foreign policy with a European defence force replacing NATO, etc. There would be no rebate. The UK is better out of the EU, for their sake as well as that of the UK, unless it wholeheartedly signs up for the full deal.
    In your opinion.
    Which is wrong.
  • I understand the rationale that May runs the clock down and the fear of no deal brings MPs into line. My objection to it is the basic premise that it's May's deal or no deal - incorrect.

    If MPs are put in the position of having to select a form of Brexit they will chose May's deal instead of no deal. Forget no deal, they will vote for May's deal if there is no other choice.

    And there is another choice - rescind Article 50. Politically heinous but legally simple, and because it's simple that will sustain MPs as the clock runs down. As no deal planning picks up speed and demonstrates to all but the most obdurate that leaving makes them personally worse off, I expect the "nobody voted to be worse off" argument to be used a lot. Because bar a few well of ideological crazies nobody voted to be worse off. I've spoken to poor leave voters here in Stockton and wanting even less than the meagre scraps they have now is not what they expect from Brexit even if the reverse is true.

    Final point. MPs like being MPs. But most have a clear and massive sense of responsibility. They will not voluntarily screw over constituents as pawns to keep their jobs.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 43,800

    the Leave campaign used more unequivocally positive language in its messages than the Remain campaign which typically hedged its endorsements of the EU

    In other words, the Leave campaign spoke of fantasy, and Remain spoke of reality...
  • daodaodaodao Posts: 821
    edited December 2018
    Nigelb said:

    daodao said:

    Foxy said:

    PBers interested in linguistics and Brexit should consider The Language of Brexit: How Britain Talked Its Way Out of the European Union whose research-based thesis is that the Leave campaign used more unequivocally positive language in its messages than the Remain campaign which typically hedged its endorsements of the EU, damning the EU with faint praise, even when not wholly negative.

    https://www.bloomsbury.com/uk/the-language-of-brexit-9781350047976/

    At the time of the campaign I was saying that Remain was being too negative, and concentrated too much on economics. One of the decisive reasons Remain won in 1975 was espousing a positive vision. People need a vision.

    I see some prospect of a more positive approach in the next referendum* while Leave goes more negative. People are becoming increasingly aware of what we are losing by Leaving, and the putative benefits of Brexit are increasingly looking like rather thin gruel.

    *I think that the WA will probably pass, but not at the first attempt, so a #peoplesvote for Rejoin may well occur during the WA. Leavers should be happy with that, as we will have Brexited, before we implement the Rejoin result.
    Rejoining the EU should only occur if people wish to sign up for ever closer union under German hegemony, namely joining Schengen, the Euro, a common defence/foreign policy with a European defence force replacing NATO, etc. There would be no rebate. The UK is better out of the EU, for their sake as well as that of the UK, unless it wholeheartedly signs up for the full deal.
    In your opinion.
    Which is wrong.
    You may disagree with my opinion, but it is not per se "wrong". Assuming the UK leaves and then re-joins, it would not be eligible for the many privileged opt-outs that it currently "enjoys". These "extras" can only be perpetuated by revoking A50 and not leaving.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 15,190
    edited December 2018

    justin124 said:

    No way that the Tories or Labour will allow the leader of a smaller party to become PM!

    Agreed - would only work if there really was a massive defection of MPs, and I can't see it.
    They might in the circumstance of a short term "one job" government, comprising Tory, Labour and minor party MPs, that would extend or revoke A50 and then go straight to a GE. Having a respected 'neutral' would make it easier to build a broad consensus, avoid the 'Corbyn problem' (including for many Labour MPs), and avoid giving either of the major parties incumbency immediately prior to the election. It would also make it less difficult for the mass of MPs joining the government to return to their parties for the election - compared to a situation where for example the Tory remainers joined a government led by a Labour PM.

    Revoking A50 needs to be initiated by the government, and a government needs a PM, yet very clearly it cannot be May or Corbyn, and there isn't time to find a new Tory leader.

    The alternative to a minor party figure (and Lucas is another possibility) would be a respected elder statesman who won't be contesting for future PM like Clarke or Grieve. But it could still be difficult for Labour MPs to serve a 'Conservative' PM, even for a few weeks. Far easier to put someone in who doesn't stand a prayer of being elected PM in the election

    If May were indeed serious about taking us to no deal if her deal is rejected (personally I don't think she is), and we are almost out of time, the above is the only way out for the majority of MPs who won't inflict no deal on the country.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 7,199
    daodao said:

    Foxy said:

    PBers interested in linguistics and Brexit should consider The Language of Brexit: How Britain Talked Its Way Out of the European Union whose research-based thesis is that the Leave campaign used more unequivocally positive language in its messages than the Remain campaign which typically hedged its endorsements of the EU, damning the EU with faint praise, even when not wholly negative.

    https://www.bloomsbury.com/uk/the-language-of-brexit-9781350047976/

    At the time of the campaign I was saying that Remain was being too negative, and concentrated too much on economics. One of the decisive reasons Remain won in 1975 was espousing a positive vision. People need a vision.

    I see some prospect of a more positive approach in the next referendum* while Leave goes more negative. People are becoming increasingly aware of what we are losing by Leaving, and the putative benefits of Brexit are increasingly looking like rather thin gruel.

    *I think that the WA will probably pass, but not at the first attempt, so a #peoplesvote for Rejoin may well occur during the WA. Leavers should be happy with that, as we will have Brexited, before we implement the Rejoin result.
    Rejoining the EU should only occur if people wish to sign up for ever closer union under German hegemony, namely joining Schengen, the Euro, a common defence/foreign policy with a European defence force replacing NATO, etc. There would be no rebate. The UK is better out of the EU, for their sake as well as that of the UK, unless it wholeheartedly signs up for the full deal.
    I agree that it would be better to Remain on current terms, particularly the rebate, but Project Fear about Rejoin terms is overdone. The option is Shengan or CTA (which we will remain in anyway) and joining the Euro is effectively optional as no pressure is applied to non EZ states to join. A common defence strategy is merely a sensible idea.

    We joined for good reasons in 1975, though we have forgotton why. We will remember soon enough and be nostalgic for the good old days of EU membership.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 43,800
    IanB2 said:

    They might in the circumstance of a short term "one job" government, comprising Tory, Labour and minor party MPs, that would extend or revoke A50 and then go straight to a GE. Having a respected 'neutral' would make it easier to build a broad consensus, avoid the 'Corbyn problem' (including for many Labour MPs), and avoid giving either of the major parties incumbency immediately prior to the election. It would also make it less difficult for the mass of MPs joining the government to return to their parties for the election - compared to a situation where for example the Tory remainers joined a government led by a Labour PM.

    What does each party put in their manifesto for that election?

    Tories - Submit article 50 again but do it right this time?

    Labour - Submit article 50 again but do it right this time?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 15,190
    edited December 2018
    daodao said:

    Foxy said:

    PBers interested in linguistics and Brexit should consider The Language of Brexit: How Britain Talked Its Way Out of the European Union whose research-based thesis is that the Leave campaign used more unequivocally positive language in its messages than the Remain campaign which typically hedged its endorsements of the EU, damning the EU with faint praise, even when not wholly negative.

    https://www.bloomsbury.com/uk/the-language-of-brexit-9781350047976/

    At the time of the campaign I was saying that Remain was being too negative, and concentrated too much on economics. One of the decisive reasons Remain won in 1975 was espousing a positive vision. People need a vision.

    I see some prospect of a more positive approach in the next referendum* while Leave goes more negative. People are becoming increasingly aware of what we are losing by Leaving, and the putative benefits of Brexit are increasingly looking like rather thin gruel.

    *I think that the WA will probably pass, but not at the first attempt, so a #peoplesvote for Rejoin may well occur during the WA. Leavers should be happy with that, as we will have Brexited, before we implement the Rejoin result.
    Rejoining the EU should only occur if people wish to sign up for ever closer union under German hegemony, namely joining Schengen, the Euro, a common defence/foreign policy with a European defence force replacing NATO, etc. There would be no rebate. The UK is better out of the EU, for their sake as well as that of the UK, unless it wholeheartedly signs up for the full deal.
    Obviously wrong. Just your straw person in a poor attempt to justify damaging the country.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 15,190
    edited December 2018
    daodao said:

    SunnyJim said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Europe Elects
    @EuropeElects
    Dec 23

    UK, Opinium poll:

    LAB-S&D: 39%
    CON-ECR: 39% (+1)
    LDEM-ALDE: 6% (-2)
    UKIP-EFDD: 6%
    GREENS-G/EFA: 4%
    SNP-G/EFA: 4%
    PC-G/EFA: 0% (-1)

    +/- 13–14 Dec. '18

    Field work: 18/12/18 – 20/12/18
    Sample size: 1,139
    http://europeelects.eu/uk"


    2017 GE

    Parties supporting Brexit: 84%

    Parties supporting Remain: 14%
    Parities opposing Brexit according to May won over 17 million votes (Labour, SNP, Lib Dems, Sinn Fein, Plaid Cymru, Green, SDLP, Alliance). Nearly 3 million more than the parties supporting Brexit.

    The Labour party manifesto in GE2017 supported Brexit, as did a sizeable chunk (may be 40%) of their voters at that GE.
    Yet the majority of candidates elected to Parliament are remainers.

    It's a futile argument, since who can decide whether people are electing individuals to represent their views, (the legal position), voting for the text of the manifesto (which few will read), voting for a choice of political party regardless of candidate, or voting for the personality of the prospective PM?
  • daodaodaodao Posts: 821
    IanB2 said:

    daodao said:

    Foxy said:

    PBers interested in linguistics and Brexit should consider The Language of Brexit: How Britain Talked Its Way Out of the European Union whose research-based thesis is that the Leave campaign used more unequivocally positive language in its messages than the Remain campaign which typically hedged its endorsements of the EU, damning the EU with faint praise, even when not wholly negative.

    https://www.bloomsbury.com/uk/the-language-of-brexit-9781350047976/

    At the time of the campaign I was saying that Remain was being too negative, and concentrated too much on economics. One of the decisive reasons Remain won in 1975 was espousing a positive vision. People need a vision.

    I see some prospect of a more positive approach in the next referendum* while Leave goes more negative. People are becoming increasingly aware of what we are losing by Leaving, and the putative benefits of Brexit are increasingly looking like rather thin gruel.

    *I think that the WA will probably pass, but not at the first attempt, so a #peoplesvote for Rejoin may well occur during the WA. Leavers should be happy with that, as we will have Brexited, before we implement the Rejoin result.
    Rejoining the EU should only occur if people wish to sign up for ever closer union under German hegemony, namely joining Schengen, the Euro, a common defence/foreign policy with a European defence force replacing NATO, etc. There would be no rebate. The UK is better out of the EU, for their sake as well as that of the UK, unless it wholeheartedly signs up for the full deal.
    Obviously wrong. Just your straw person in a poor attempt to justify damaging the country.
    You may disagree with my opinion, but it is not per se "wrong".

    Half-hearted membership is bad for the UK and bad for the EU.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 10,621
    daodao said:

    Nigelb said:

    daodao said:

    Foxy said:

    PBers interested in linguistics and Brexit should consider The Language of Brexit: How Britain Talked Its Way Out of the European Union whose research-based thesis is that the Leave campaign used more unequivocally positive language in its messages than the Remain campaign which typically hedged its endorsements of the EU, damning the EU with faint praise, even when not wholly negative.

    https://www.bloomsbury.com/uk/the-language-of-brexit-9781350047976/

    At the time of the campaign I was saying that Remain was being too negative, and concentrated too much on economics. One of the decisive reasons Remain won in 1975 was espousing a positive vision. People need a vision.

    I see some prospect of a more positive approach in the next referendum* while Leave goes more negative. People are becoming increasingly aware of what we are losing by Leaving, and the putative benefits of Brexit are increasingly looking like rather thin gruel.

    *I think that the WA will probably pass, but not at the first attempt, so a #peoplesvote for Rejoin may well occur during the WA. Leavers should be happy with that, as we will have Brexited, before we implement the Rejoin result.
    Rejoining the EU should only occur if people wish to sign up for ever closer union under German hegemony, namely joining Schengen, the Euro, a common defence/foreign policy with a European defence force replacing NATO, etc. There would be no rebate. The UK is better out of the EU, for their sake as well as that of the UK, unless it wholeheartedly signs up for the full deal.
    In your opinion.
    Which is wrong.
    You may disagree with my opinion, but it is not per se "wrong". Assuming the UK leaves and then re-joins, it would not be eligible for the many privileged opt-outs that it currently "enjoys". These "extras" can only be perpetuated by revoking A50 and not leaving.
    Project Fear.
    :-)

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 16,989
    edited December 2018
    I still see the deal passing as an overwhelmingly likely event, say 85%.

    Failing that there will be an A50 extension and then a May's deal/remain referendum.

    Speaking to very sensible remain voters over the hols it is clear that the backstop is an issue for them and hence May should or will have to become more explicit, within the constraints of the politics of it all (ie the precarious if not absurd situation in NI), about why the backstop is necessary and non-negotiable.
  • IanB2 said:

    daodao said:

    SunnyJim said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Europe Elects
    @EuropeElects
    Dec 23

    UK, Opinium poll:

    LAB-S&D: 39%
    CON-ECR: 39% (+1)
    LDEM-ALDE: 6% (-2)
    UKIP-EFDD: 6%
    GREENS-G/EFA: 4%
    SNP-G/EFA: 4%
    PC-G/EFA: 0% (-1)

    +/- 13–14 Dec. '18

    Field work: 18/12/18 – 20/12/18
    Sample size: 1,139
    http://europeelects.eu/uk"


    2017 GE

    Parties supporting Brexit: 84%

    Parties supporting Remain: 14%
    Parities opposing Brexit according to May won over 17 million votes (Labour, SNP, Lib Dems, Sinn Fein, Plaid Cymru, Green, SDLP, Alliance). Nearly 3 million more than the parties supporting Brexit.

    The Labour party manifesto in GE2017 supported Brexit, as did a sizeable chunk (may be 40%) of their voters at that GE.
    Yet the majority of candidates elected to Parliament are remainers.

    It's a futile argument, since who can decide whether people are electing individuals to represent their views, (the legal position), voting for the text of the manifesto (which few will read), voting for a choice of political party regardless of candidate, or voting for the personality of the prospective PM?
    As I pointed out the Labour manifesto supported a specific vision of Brexit which since the election has proven to be unviable and a fantasy. There are no deals to be done by a Labour government with Brussels that has us outside the CU but with influence over the deals that it does, nor outside the Single Market but still a member.

    The fantasy Brexit was understood by both leaver and remainer Labour voters as in their interests - "leaving" the EU, and not leaving because impossible asks. A clever piece of drafting.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 15,190

    SunnyJim said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Europe Elects
    @EuropeElects
    Dec 23

    UK, Opinium poll:

    LAB-S&D: 39%
    CON-ECR: 39% (+1)
    LDEM-ALDE: 6% (-2)
    UKIP-EFDD: 6%
    GREENS-G/EFA: 4%
    SNP-G/EFA: 4%
    PC-G/EFA: 0% (-1)

    +/- 13–14 Dec. '18

    Field work: 18/12/18 – 20/12/18
    Sample size: 1,139
    http://europeelects.eu/uk"


    2017 GE

    Parties supporting Brexit: 84%

    Parties supporting Remain: 14%
    Except that is bollocks. The majority of LAB voters and MPs are remainers. It is just the leadership, the Milne/Corbyn gang, is out of step with party voters - a highly dangerous situation.
    The Manifesto supported BREXIT. Labour added a 50 year record increase in votes.
    Worth reading it in detail. Yes, it respects the referendum, but the bulk of Labour's text was about the benefits of staying close to Europe and remaining within as many of the pan-European frameworks as possible, the specific commitment they make is to "seek a Brexit deal" (my emphasis) that protects the UK's current benefits, and the Brexit section ends with a commitment to a truly meaningful vote on any deal in Parliament.

    It could be argued that deciding to remain in the circumstances where such a deal turns out to be completely unchievable would not be a contradiction of the maninfesto (i.e. a truly meaningful vote should include the option of rejection). It could also be argued that voting for A50 and giving the Brexiters the best part of three years to come up with a credible, workable and beneficial way forward - and seeing them fail - is giving quite sufficient respect to the referendum result.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 15,190
    edited December 2018

    Nigelb said:

    And predictions for next year’s markets ?
    Things are getting a little weird...
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/dec/26/us-stock-markets-post-christmas-sp-500-dow-nasdaq

    Market prediction.

    After further falls the US market will eventually recover to be above the current level and the UK market will continue to drift down.
    Interesting. Most analysts looking at things from the usual financial perspective (CAPE etc.), ignoring the politics, suggest the opposite - that US shares are (or were) signficantly overvalued in relation to earnings, whereas the UK market has been depressed by the politics, particularly considering that FTSE comprises significant overseas earnings,
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 1,317
    Foxy said:

    PBers interested in linguistics and Brexit should consider The Language of Brexit: How Britain Talked Its Way Out of the European Union whose research-based thesis is that the Leave campaign used more unequivocally positive language in its messages than the Remain campaign which typically hedged its endorsements of the EU, damning the EU with faint praise, even when not wholly negative.

    https://www.bloomsbury.com/uk/the-language-of-brexit-9781350047976/

    At the time of the campaign I was saying that Remain was being too negative, and concentrated too much on economics. One of the decisive reasons Remain won in 1975 was espousing a positive vision. People need a vision.

    I see some prospect of a more positive approach in the next referendum* while Leave goes more negative. People are becoming increasingly aware of what we are losing by Leaving, and the putative benefits of Brexit are increasingly looking like rather thin gruel.
    The tactic for Remain should be to sell a positive vision in public (inclusion, healing division, bright sunlit uplands) while engaging in low Cambridge Analytica-style politics in the trenches: Facebook ads from supposedly unaffiliated organisations encouraging students to “fight the gammon”, scare stories in areas with Nissan or Airbus plants, all of fhat. The two aren’t incompatible.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 15,190
    edited December 2018

    IanB2 said:

    daodao said:

    SunnyJim said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Europe Elects
    @EuropeElects
    Dec 23

    UK, Opinium poll:

    LAB-S&D: 39%
    CON-ECR: 39% (+1)
    LDEM-ALDE: 6% (-2)
    UKIP-EFDD: 6%
    GREENS-G/EFA: 4%
    SNP-G/EFA: 4%
    PC-G/EFA: 0% (-1)

    +/- 13–14 Dec. '18

    Field work: 18/12/18 – 20/12/18
    Sample size: 1,139
    http://europeelects.eu/uk"


    2017 GE

    Parties supporting Brexit: 84%

    Parties supporting Remain: 14%
    Parities opposing Brexit according to May won over 17 million votes (Labour, SNP, Lib Dems, Sinn Fein, Plaid Cymru, Green, SDLP, Alliance). Nearly 3 million more than the parties supporting Brexit.

    The Labour party manifesto in GE2017 supported Brexit, as did a sizeable chunk (may be 40%) of their voters at that GE.
    Yet the majority of candidates elected to Parliament are remainers.

    It's a futile argument, since who can decide whether people are electing individuals to represent their views, (the legal position), voting for the text of the manifesto (which few will read), voting for a choice of political party regardless of candidate, or voting for the personality of the prospective PM?
    As I pointed out the Labour manifesto supported a specific vision of Brexit which since the election has proven to be unviable and a fantasy. There are no deals to be done by a Labour government with Brussels that has us outside the CU but with influence over the deals that it does, nor outside the Single Market but still a member.

    The fantasy Brexit was understood by both leaver and remainer Labour voters as in their interests - "leaving" the EU, and not leaving because impossible asks. A clever piece of drafting.
    Spot on - and a similar point to one I was typing at the same time, below.
  • Good morning, everyone.

    I agree there won't be a General Election. Not so sure about us not leaving on 29 March, or on there being a second referendum. I think the likeliest moment for that to occur (the 11 December vote-that-never-was) has been and gone.

    Anyway, green either way on that occurrence.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 15,190
    daodao said:

    IanB2 said:

    daodao said:

    Foxy said:

    PBers interested in linguistics and Brexit should consider The Language of Brexit: How Britain Talked Its Way Out of the European Union whose research-based thesis is that the Leave campaign used more unequivocally positive language in its messages than the Remain campaign which typically hedged its endorsements of the EU, damning the EU with faint praise, even when not wholly negative.

    https://www.bloomsbury.com/uk/the-language-of-brexit-9781350047976/

    At the time of the campaign I was saying that Remain was being too negative, and concentrated too much on economics. One of the decisive reasons Remain won in 1975 was espousing a positive vision. People need a vision.

    I see some prospect of a more positive approach in the next referendum* while Leave goes more negative. People are becoming increasingly aware of what we are losing by Leaving, and the putative benefits of Brexit are increasingly looking like rather thin gruel.

    *I think that the WA will probably pass, but not at the first attempt, so a #peoplesvote for Rejoin may well occur during the WA. Leavers should be happy with that, as we will have Brexited, before we implement the Rejoin result.
    Rejoining the EU should only occur if people wish to sign up for ever closer union under German hegemony, namely joining Schengen, the Euro, a common defence/foreign policy with a European defence force replacing NATO, etc. There would be no rebate. The UK is better out of the EU, for their sake as well as that of the UK, unless it wholeheartedly signs up for the full deal.
    Obviously wrong. Just your straw person in a poor attempt to justify damaging the country.
    You may disagree with my opinion, but it is not per se "wrong".

    Half-hearted membership is bad for the UK and bad for the EU.
    I see your point, but it doesn't follow from it that leaving would be better rather than even worse.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 25,847
    FPT @recidivist, it looks to me as if the economy took off like a rocket after Howe's 1981 budget, and for a very long time. Growth averaged 3% p.a up till the end of the century, at a time when the population was growing slowly.

    So, the 364 were incorrect.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 15,190
    edited December 2018
    Scott_P said:

    IanB2 said:

    They might in the circumstance of a short term "one job" government, comprising Tory, Labour and minor party MPs, that would extend or revoke A50 and then go straight to a GE. Having a respected 'neutral' would make it easier to build a broad consensus, avoid the 'Corbyn problem' (including for many Labour MPs), and avoid giving either of the major parties incumbency immediately prior to the election. It would also make it less difficult for the mass of MPs joining the government to return to their parties for the election - compared to a situation where for example the Tory remainers joined a government led by a Labour PM.

    What does each party put in their manifesto for that election?

    Tories - Submit article 50 again but do it right this time?

    Labour - Submit article 50 again but do it right this time?
    That's a very interesting question. It does of course assume that it is possible to put the two Humpty dumpty parties together again. But they have historically been extraordinarily enduring.

    If the 'one job' government secures an extension, my guess is that the Tories would commit to progressing towards Brexit on a different (maybe ultimately harder) basis, and Labour may duck out by suggesting another referendum.

    If the 'one job' government goes for revocation, it may be the Tories that commit to another in/out referendum within its term, whereas Labour may choose to kick the whole thing into the long grass with some vague words about revisiting it as and when there is clear public support for it, meanwhile concentrating on introducing five years of socialism.
  • I hope 6 is correct although I struggle to imagine Corbyn being replaced whilst he enjoys McCluskey’s support and continues to attract hard left extremists into the Labour Party. Given the fact that he has survived one leadership challenge already; seems immune to any backlash over Labour’s appalling misogyny and antisemitism and has no coherent policy agenda on any issue, that seems a brave prediction to me.

    Difficult to see how the last prediction and the first can possibly both be the case unless there are formal splits in one or both of the two major parties, in which case why not say so. That seems a far bolder prediction than either the first or last. I am not sure it will happen myself, but there is certainly plenty of speculation about it particularly on the Tory side.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 25,847
    IanB2 said:

    justin124 said:

    No way that the Tories or Labour will allow the leader of a smaller party to become PM!

    Agreed - would only work if there really was a massive defection of MPs, and I can't see it.
    They might in the circumstance of a short term "one job" government, comprising Tory, Labour and minor party MPs, that would extend or revoke A50 and then go straight to a GE. Having a respected 'neutral' would make it easier to build a broad consensus, avoid the 'Corbyn problem' (including for many Labour MPs), and avoid giving either of the major parties incumbency immediately prior to the election. It would also make it less difficult for the mass of MPs joining the government to return to their parties for the election - compared to a situation where for example the Tory remainers joined a government led by a Labour PM.

    Revoking A50 needs to be initiated by the government, and a government needs a PM, yet very clearly it cannot be May or Corbyn, and there isn't time to find a new Tory leader.

    The alternative to a minor party figure (and Lucas is another possibility) would be a respected elder statesman who won't be contesting for future PM like Clarke or Grieve. But it could still be difficult for Labour MPs to serve a 'Conservative' PM, even for a few weeks. Far easier to put someone in who doesn't stand a prayer of being elected PM in the election

    If May were indeed serious about taking us to no deal if her deal is rejected (personally I don't think she is), and we are almost out of time, the above is the only way out for the majority of MPs who won't inflict no deal on the country.
    I think it most most unlikely that either Tory or Labour MP's would be allowed back in that situation. The rest of their colleagues (and members) would view them as traitors.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 10,945
    Annoyed that PB has not sorted out Brexit over the Xmas break. Should have been sorted by now. Two clear days. Hopefully NY day will do the trick.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 40,874
    edited December 2018
    I am baffled at this idea of Grieve being able to manage egos cross party. He's obviously very bright and has had moments of effective opposition, but he's among the most fanatical figures in parliament right now, his actions are driven by his desperate emotional reaction to brexit. Hardly a good person to try to lead any kind of consensus effort.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 15,190

    Very bold predictions Alastair.

    I honestly don't think you are going to repeat this year's successes with that lot. I'm expecting a much tamer year tbh; the opposite outcome for most of your points:

    - May's Deal to pass at the 2nd or 3rd attempt in February, against a backdrop of No Deal panic.
    - The UK to leave on the 29th March.
    - May to step down around Easter.
    - New Tory leader in the summer.
    - No GE in 2019
    - Jezza to soldier on.

    And me to continue with my terrible inability to make accurate predictions. :lol:

    I agree with Ben's predictions. I think that Tory backbenchers are now generally looking for an excuse to fall into line, and an excuse will be provided. That would be a reasonable high of sorts for May to retire on. Jezza will be fine - the people who are grumpy about him are largely those who were already grumpy. The one element of Ben's predictions that I'm doubtful about is "no election" - won't the new Tory leader seize the opportunity for a potential mandate, rather than struggle for 3 years?
    IF (big word) we manage to exit in March on a very soft basis, I agree that an early election looks more likely, under a new leader. Better to go to the country before any slow burn damage from Brexit becomes evident, and before the overdue recession arrives, campaigning on the basis that twice 'project fear' turned out to be wrong. Than wait and find the Uk in a spiral of slow relative decline, with a not insignificant chance of worse, and then have to explain in 2022 why Brexit has turned out so miserably.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 40,874
    Correction - there is a majority in parliament which does not want no deal. They don't consider it that irresponsible as they have as a majority risked it constantly. They are lucky A50 can berevoked.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 40,874
    I would broadly agree with most of these. Things are going to get worse, the simplest options are the most fraught and parliament is not going to make a decision - the nature of their intractability makes clear they have mentally checked out from remaining responsible for it, they want the people to sort it out be it GE or referendum
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 25,847
    kle4 said:

    I am baffled at this idea of Grieve being able to manage egos cross party. He's obviously very bright and has had moments of effective opposition, but he's among the most fanatical figures in parliament right now, his actions are driven by his desperate emotional reaction to brexit. Hardly a good person to try to lead any kind of consensus effort.

    Perhaps the biggest ego of all can manage the rest.

    Any Labour or Conservative must know that they would be finishing their careers by joining such a government, unless they formed a new cross-party alliance dedicated to EU membership. Even then, FPTP would probably enable Labour and the Conservatives to kill them.

  • ChrisChris Posts: 2,192
    Jonathan said:

    Annoyed that PB has not sorted out Brexit over the Xmas break. Should have been sorted by now. Two clear days. Hopefully NY day will do the trick.

    Surely sorting out Brexit can't be as hard as that crossword.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 15,190
    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    I am baffled at this idea of Grieve being able to manage egos cross party. He's obviously very bright and has had moments of effective opposition, but he's among the most fanatical figures in parliament right now, his actions are driven by his desperate emotional reaction to brexit. Hardly a good person to try to lead any kind of consensus effort.

    Perhaps the biggest ego of all can manage the rest.

    Any Labour or Conservative must know that they would be finishing their careers by joining such a government, unless they formed a new cross-party alliance dedicated to EU membership. Even then, FPTP would probably enable Labour and the Conservatives to kill them.

    Remember we'd be talking a couple of hundred from each side, in the interests of national unity and the country. If we truly were facing no deal as the alternative, I think it would fly.

    You are right that returning to their parties could be difficult, but is either of them really going to destroy themselves by taking action against so many? It would be an entirely different proposition to expelling ten or fifteen rebels.

    The alternative might be that MPs are left impotent protesting about no deal whilst doing nothing meaningful to prevent it happening. That won't reflect well on them, at all.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 20,936
    Scott_P said:

    the Leave campaign used more unequivocally positive language in its messages than the Remain campaign which typically hedged its endorsements of the EU

    In other words, the Leave campaign spoke of fantasy, and Remain spoke of reality...
    Remain, spoke of nothing , they were just smug barstewards that got what was coming to them.
  • Sean_F said:

    FPT @recidivist, it looks to me as if the economy took off like a rocket after Howe's 1981 budget, and for a very long time. Growth averaged 3% p.a up till the end of the century, at a time when the population was growing slowly.

    So, the 364 were incorrect.

    Unless Sir Geoffrey Howe was personally drilling off Aberdeen, he deserves no credit for Mrs Thatcher's magic money tree -- North Sea Oil.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 20,936
    kle4 said:

    Correction - there is a majority in parliament which does not want no deal. They don't consider it that irresponsible as they have as a majority risked it constantly. They are lucky A50 can berevoked.

    Worst case will eb extension of A50 but more likely scrapped and we stay in. Not even an idiot will vote for May's dogs breakfast of a flustercuck.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 2,192
    On Brexit, there's a lot of talk about the domestic game of "chicken" between May and her opponents, threatening them with No Deal at all if they don't agree to her deal.

    But most people seem to be assuming that if the UK wants an extension we'll get one, even though that requires unanimity from the other members. Isn't there also potential for a game of "chicken" between the UK and the rest of the EU - who are in a position to threaten us with No Deal unless we either revoke or agree to the deal that's on the table?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 15,190
    edited December 2018
    kle4 said:

    Correction - there is a majority in parliament which does not want no deal. They don't consider it that irresponsible as they have as a majority risked it constantly. They are lucky A50 can berevoked.

    I agree Grieve is probably better in the back room doing the leg work.

    I believe that revocation couldn't be done by amendment and hence needs to be done by government? If so then I can only see four routes (prior to a GE) to it:

    - a remarkable about turn by the current government, which would lead straight to Tory civil war.
    - a cross-party 'one job' government along the lines I suggest downthread
    - some realignment of the political parties that throws up a new government
    - May is threatened with her and/or her government being deposed (and/or parliament passes a vote for revocation with a clear majority) and she is forced to do it.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 25,847

    Sean_F said:

    FPT @recidivist, it looks to me as if the economy took off like a rocket after Howe's 1981 budget, and for a very long time. Growth averaged 3% p.a up till the end of the century, at a time when the population was growing slowly.

    So, the 364 were incorrect.

    Unless Sir Geoffrey Howe was personally drilling off Aberdeen, he deserves no credit for Mrs Thatcher's magic money tree -- North Sea Oil.
    Oil peaked as a share of national output in 1985, but the economy continued to do well, long after that date.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 15,190
    malcolmg said:

    kle4 said:

    Correction - there is a majority in parliament which does not want no deal. They don't consider it that irresponsible as they have as a majority risked it constantly. They are lucky A50 can berevoked.

    Worst case will eb extension of A50 but more likely scrapped and we stay in. Not even an idiot will vote for May's dogs breakfast of a flustercuck.
    That may be the slow side of your brain thinking there, Malc? There are growing signs that her deal may do a lot better than originally expected. And it may not need to win, first time - just to exceed expectations and for no other majority-supported resolution to emerge.
  • I agree with most of those predictions. Corbyn will survive though as leader of Labour without any difficulty. Instead there be a significant and organised defection of Labour MPs to some form of centrist grouping - for a while now it has been apparent that people are biding their time in order to use the endgame of Brexit as a catalyst.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 25,847
    IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    I am baffled at this idea of Grieve being able to manage egos cross party. He's obviously very bright and has had moments of effective opposition, but he's among the most fanatical figures in parliament right now, his actions are driven by his desperate emotional reaction to brexit. Hardly a good person to try to lead any kind of consensus effort.

    Perhaps the biggest ego of all can manage the rest.

    Any Labour or Conservative must know that they would be finishing their careers by joining such a government, unless they formed a new cross-party alliance dedicated to EU membership. Even then, FPTP would probably enable Labour and the Conservatives to kill them.

    Remember we'd be talking a couple of hundred from each side, in the interests of national unity and the country. If we truly were facing no deal as the alternative, I think it would fly.

    You are right that returning to their parties could be difficult, but is either of them really going to destroy themselves by taking action against so many? It would be an entirely different proposition to expelling ten or fifteen rebels.

    The alternative might be that MPs are left impotent protesting about no deal whilst doing nothing meaningful to prevent it happening. That won't reflect well on them, at all.
    I think it would be fewer from each side.

    As to the last, doing nothing, while blaming opponents, is the easiest option.
This discussion has been closed.