Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With just five days to go the PB/Alastair Meeks predictions fo

13»

Comments

  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Incidentally I was curious about MaxPB's comment about the EMA's staff being unwilling to relocate to Amsterdam so I did a quick google which threw up this story.

    https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2018/12/fda-follows-european-medicines-agency-to-amsterdam/

    So we are not just losing the EMA but the European HQ of the FDA as well. It's quite a good illustration of how activity in that sector, and the financial benefits that flow from it, will be migrating out of this country. It will probably be quite slow and unobtrusive. I hadn't heard the FDA one. But it will be both real and expensive.

    I can already confidently predict that the Europhobes on here will be filling the pages with stories about how well post-Brexit Britain is doing and how wrong the remainers were. You might as well start writing them now - it's not as if you need to wait for the facts.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    The article describes a politically tumultuous 2019 and I hope so, being a junkie. My hunch, however, is the opposite. I see drama but most of it front-loaded into Q1. After much posturing and pontificating and brinkmanship, we will ratify the Withdrawal Treaty and leave the EU on the due date. That the deed is now done, that the extremists on either side of the R/L divide are equally disgruntled, and that many years of unflashy negotiation on the future relationship lie ahead, will draw the sting from the issue. The post Brexit world is born on 30 March and the vast majority will accept it and wish to focus on other matters.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    MaxPB said:

    Sean_F said:

    It will be interesting to see Brexit polling as the fear kicks in.

    The argument that we should Brexit “because democracy” is belied by what is now persistent polling against Brexit. The economic argument for Brexit was given up almost immediately after the referendum, and the sovereignty argument has been tested to destruction.

    All that is left is control of immigration, but this is not to be dismissed lightly. Remainers need an argument on immigration.

    The danger for Remain/Rejoin would come if we left, and the promised horrors did not appear. That would be a massive blow to their credibility.
    I don't think that is remotely the case. The remain position has been all over the place. It's not a good look but at least there is no coherent set of arguments that can be shot down.

    Speaking personally, the biggest horror from my point of view has already happened. The loss of the EMA is a bit blow to the UK. And given that David Davies doubted that would even occur I'd call that a massive blow to the credibility of the people who have advocated leaving.
    The same EMA who are struggling to get their London staff to move away from London? The EBA are going to find it even tougher.
    Well the dislocation of the staff themselves is certainly unfortunate, but I was thinking bigger picture of the loss of influence and contacts in the pharma world. But if we leave we have to give it up. Brexit means Brexit. I am still waiting for somebody to come up with a benefit from Brexit to offset the known drawbacks.
    Blue passports.
    Okay. Blue passports. I'll give you that one.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    kinabalu said:

    The article describes a politically tumultuous 2019 and I hope so, being a junkie. My hunch, however, is the opposite. I see drama but most of it front-loaded into Q1. After much posturing and pontificating and brinkmanship, we will ratify the Withdrawal Treaty and leave the EU on the due date. That the deed is now done, that the extremists on either side of the R/L divide are equally disgruntled, and that many years of unflashy negotiation on the future relationship lie ahead, will draw the sting from the issue. The post Brexit world is born on 30 March and the vast majority will accept it and wish to focus on other matters.

    The national project on the 30th March will be getting back in the EU.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Incidentally I was curious about MaxPB's comment about the EMA's staff being unwilling to relocate to Amsterdam so I did a quick google which threw up this story.

    https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2018/12/fda-follows-european-medicines-agency-to-amsterdam/

    So we are not just losing the EMA but the European HQ of the FDA as well. It's quite a good illustration of how activity in that sector, and the financial benefits that flow from it, will be migrating out of this country. It will probably be quite slow and unobtrusive. I hadn't heard the FDA one. But it will be both real and expensive.

    I can already confidently predict that the Europhobes on here will be filling the pages with stories about how well post-Brexit Britain is doing and how wrong the remainers were. You might as well start writing them now - it's not as if you need to wait for the facts.

    As if remainers have been waiting for facts before saying how bad post-Brexit Britain will be doing :p
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,349
    Mr Recidivist,

    "I can already confidently predict that the Europhobes on here will be filling the pages with stories about how well post-Brexit Britain is doing and how wrong the remainers were. You might as well start writing them now - it's not as if you need to wait for the facts."

    That's the prerogative of the Remain camp, it was called Operation Fear.

    Chill out. Que Sera, Sera.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,087
    RobD said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr Edmund,

    I've met very few people who want to re-run the referendum because they have more information, I meet many who want to re-run the referendum because they want to change the result. Their excuse … someone else has more information.


    That will always be the cry. When do we stop? When you have the right result.


    Exactly. All this "more information available" rubbish is tedious.
    And the reason why many who voted for Brexit do not want a re-run is not because they are scared they will lose but more that the pro-Remain camp would do their utmost to weight the campaign in their favour.
    A re-run is not what we are talking about though is it? It would be one of the following:

    Deal versus No Deal exit
    Deal versus Remain
    No Deal exit versus Remain
    or Deal v No Deal v Remain

    None of the above is a re-run of Leave versus Remain.

    If it was the first option how could any Leaver object?
    All but the top one are a re-run of leave vs. remain. Why should remain get another shot, when the message in 2016 was clear.
    It's not a game, but a serious decision.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr Edmund,

    I've met very few people who want to re-run the referendum because they have more information, I meet many who want to re-run the referendum because they want to change the result. Their excuse … someone else has more information.


    That will always be the cry. When do we stop? When you have the right result.


    Exactly. All this "more information available" rubbish is tedious.
    And the reason why many who voted for Brexit do not want a re-run is not because they are scared they will lose but more that the pro-Remain camp would do their utmost to weight the campaign in their favour.
    A re-run is not what we are talking about though is it? It would be one of the following:

    Deal versus No Deal exit
    Deal versus Remain
    No Deal exit versus Remain
    or Deal v No Deal v Remain

    None of the above is a re-run of Leave versus Remain.

    If it was the first option how could any Leaver object?
    All but the top one are a re-run of leave vs. remain. Why should remain get another shot, when the message in 2016 was clear.
    It's not a game, but a serious decision.
    Yes, and the serious decision was to leave. It wasn't a decision to have another decision in three years time.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    And predictions for next year’s markets ?
    Things are getting a little weird...
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/dec/26/us-stock-markets-post-christmas-sp-500-dow-nasdaq

    Market prediction.

    After further falls the US market will eventually recover to be above the current level and the UK market will continue to drift down.
    Interesting. Most analysts looking at things from the usual financial perspective (CAPE etc.), ignoring the politics, suggest the opposite - that US shares are (or were) signficantly overvalued in relation to earnings, whereas the UK market has been depressed by the politics, particularly considering that FTSE comprises significant overseas earnings,
    US market has already ciorrected by 15% and earnings will still be high and rising in 2019.

    Note the US market rose 5% yesterday.

    The UK has reason to be depressed on earnings grounds and reason to continue to be depressed on earnings grounds.
    The grey market suggests Wall Street will drop back significantly again today.
    Thanks for spoiling my day
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    RobD said:

    Incidentally I was curious about MaxPB's comment about the EMA's staff being unwilling to relocate to Amsterdam so I did a quick google which threw up this story.

    https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2018/12/fda-follows-european-medicines-agency-to-amsterdam/

    So we are not just losing the EMA but the European HQ of the FDA as well. It's quite a good illustration of how activity in that sector, and the financial benefits that flow from it, will be migrating out of this country. It will probably be quite slow and unobtrusive. I hadn't heard the FDA one. But it will be both real and expensive.

    I can already confidently predict that the Europhobes on here will be filling the pages with stories about how well post-Brexit Britain is doing and how wrong the remainers were. You might as well start writing them now - it's not as if you need to wait for the facts.

    As if remainers have been waiting for facts before saying how bad post-Brexit Britain will be doing :p
    You make my point for me. There are no positive arguments for Brexit so all you can do is smear people with the opposite viewpoint.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    RobD said:

    Incidentally I was curious about MaxPB's comment about the EMA's staff being unwilling to relocate to Amsterdam so I did a quick google which threw up this story.

    https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2018/12/fda-follows-european-medicines-agency-to-amsterdam/

    So we are not just losing the EMA but the European HQ of the FDA as well. It's quite a good illustration of how activity in that sector, and the financial benefits that flow from it, will be migrating out of this country. It will probably be quite slow and unobtrusive. I hadn't heard the FDA one. But it will be both real and expensive.

    I can already confidently predict that the Europhobes on here will be filling the pages with stories about how well post-Brexit Britain is doing and how wrong the remainers were. You might as well start writing them now - it's not as if you need to wait for the facts.

    As if remainers have been waiting for facts before saying how bad post-Brexit Britain will be doing :p
    You make my point for me. There are no positive arguments for Brexit so all you can do is smear people with the opposite viewpoint.
    A benefit to one person may not be a benefit to another person. This is the polarisation of the debate with both sides not being prepared to accept the others arguments.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    RobD said:

    Incidentally I was curious about MaxPB's comment about the EMA's staff being unwilling to relocate to Amsterdam so I did a quick google which threw up this story.

    https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2018/12/fda-follows-european-medicines-agency-to-amsterdam/

    So we are not just losing the EMA but the European HQ of the FDA as well. It's quite a good illustration of how activity in that sector, and the financial benefits that flow from it, will be migrating out of this country. It will probably be quite slow and unobtrusive. I hadn't heard the FDA one. But it will be both real and expensive.

    I can already confidently predict that the Europhobes on here will be filling the pages with stories about how well post-Brexit Britain is doing and how wrong the remainers were. You might as well start writing them now - it's not as if you need to wait for the facts.

    As if remainers have been waiting for facts before saying how bad post-Brexit Britain will be doing :p
    You make my point for me. There are no positive arguments for Brexit so all you can do is smear people with the opposite viewpoint.
    Huh? I was just cheekily responding to your similar smear. As for the positive arguments of Brexit, not being subsumed into a federal superstate is a pretty big one for me.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    RobD said:

    Incidentally I was curious about MaxPB's comment about the EMA's staff being unwilling to relocate to Amsterdam so I did a quick google which threw up this story.

    https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2018/12/fda-follows-european-medicines-agency-to-amsterdam/

    So we are not just losing the EMA but the European HQ of the FDA as well. It's quite a good illustration of how activity in that sector, and the financial benefits that flow from it, will be migrating out of this country. It will probably be quite slow and unobtrusive. I hadn't heard the FDA one. But it will be both real and expensive.

    I can already confidently predict that the Europhobes on here will be filling the pages with stories about how well post-Brexit Britain is doing and how wrong the remainers were. You might as well start writing them now - it's not as if you need to wait for the facts.

    As if remainers have been waiting for facts before saying how bad post-Brexit Britain will be doing :p
    You make my point for me. There are no positive arguments for Brexit so all you can do is smear people with the opposite viewpoint.
    A benefit to one person may not be a benefit to another person. This is the polarisation of the debate with both sides not being prepared to accept the others arguments.
    Yeah, it's pretty absurd to say there are no positive arguments for Brexit. I saw positive and negative reasons on both sides, and then weighed them before making a decision.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    This thread is officially old....
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851

    The national project on the 30th March will be getting back in the EU.

    That will kick off, I agree with you. #rejoin!

    As will the movement on the other side to sabotage the FTA talks. #leavemeansleave!

    But both will be fringe. The mainstream view (people and politicians) will be to secure a future relationship that is closely aligned. # ... well no # because it's not that sort of thing.

    I think there is an appetite in the country to move on from this.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,047

    MaxPB said:

    Sean_F said:

    It will be interesting to see Brexit polling as the fear kicks in.

    The argument that we should Brexit “because democracy” is belied by what is now persistent polling against Brexit. The economic argument for Brexit was given up almost immediately after the referendum, and the sovereignty argument has been tested to destruction.

    All that is left is control of immigration, but this is not to be dismissed lightly. Remainers need an argument on immigration.

    The danger for Remain/Rejoin would come if we left, and the promised horrors did not appear. That would be a massive blow to their credibility.
    I don't think that is remotely the case. The remain position has been all over the place. It's not a good look but at least there is no coherent set of arguments that can be shot down.

    Speaking personally, the biggest horror from my point of view has already happened. The loss of the EMA is a bit blow to the UK. And given that David Davies doubted that would even occur I'd call that a massive blow to the credibility of the people who have advocated leaving.
    The same EMA who are struggling to get their London staff to move away from London? The EBA are going to find it even tougher.
    Well the dislocation of the staff themselves is certainly unfortunate, but I was thinking bigger picture of the loss of influence and contacts in the pharma world. But if we leave we have to give it up. Brexit means Brexit. I am still waiting for somebody to come up with a benefit from Brexit to offset the known drawbacks.
    I struggle to see the opposing argument frankly. It's great that we got some agencies setting up in the UK - it's hardly Strasbourg though is it? On a cost benefit analysis, we lost out both ways - we neither benefited, in sum, from moneys paid into the EU vs. moneys paid the other way, OR benefited in terms of the balance of trade with our EU partners. In that lose/lose situation I think we were fairly unique. Germany was a big net donor, but the terms of trade were heavily skewed in their favour. Greece was the opposite situation. Leaving that arrangement, even with a short term cost, cannot but result in financial savings - bus or no bus.

    This is however, all marginal to the more important conversation, which is what we will actually do with our non-membership. Asking whether the country will benefit from Brexit is like asking whether a person will benefit from getting out of the house. It's what you do with it that counts, not the act itself.
This discussion has been closed.