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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB 2018 betting review – Next CON leader

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited December 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB 2018 betting review – Next CON leader

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  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 755
    First!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 35,302
    Second.
  • Third! Like Boris in the MP’s ballot....
  • She’s attempting to pursue a policy on Brexit that appears to satisfy few within her party

    And yet, Mrs May is routinely denounced for “putting Party before Country”.....
  • I guess the real question is “Who is the not Boris?

    Sajid or Jeremy?
  • She’s attempting to pursue a policy on Brexit that appears to satisfy few within her party

    And yet, Mrs May is routinely denounced for “putting Party before Country”.....

    She offers nothing for everyone.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 6,220
    Having survived the 1922 committee confidence vote, any contest is almost certainly a year away, and too much can change to have me commit any more of my book to the Tory leadership market. Some political reputations will be trashed this year.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 23,704
    It really is wide open isn't it? So much will depend on the nature and timing of May's going.

    If she and Philip walk off into the hills having delivered a workable Brexit to a weary and possibly not overly grateful nation we are looking at a continuity candidate, probably Javid, possibly Hunt.

    If she fails to deliver Brexit thanks to a recalcitrant House of Commons and there is an extension then it will be someone with much stronger leaver credentials than she ever had, probably Raab (although quite why remains a mystery to me) possibly Boris (hmm, maybe that's why).

    If we were to have a second referendum and a change of result then, well, will there be a Tory party to lead? More likely, how many Tory parties would there be and which bit would count? Possibly Rudd.

    If she continues to show limpet qualities into the 2020s then we are likely to be talking a new cast altogether. It's not a market that I find overly attractive at the moment.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 23,704
    50 minutes without a comment? Is the thread broken or is everyone else still on holiday and safely tucked up in bed?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 13,238
    Foxy said:

    Having survived the 1922 committee confidence vote, any contest is almost certainly a year away, and too much can change to have me commit any more of my book to the Tory leadership market. Some political reputations will be trashed this year.

    I think that's right. There seems no physical health reason why she should have to go, so the only reason for her leaving the post of Leader is if she herself resigns. She'll press (?stagger) on through what seems likely to be the car-crash of March and April and having survived that, should perhaps be in a more manageable situation.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 15,258
    DavidL said:

    50 minutes without a comment? Is the thread broken or is everyone else still on holiday and safely tucked up in bed?

    They're all still watching the highlights from Melbourne and shouting, 'This is how it felt, you Aussie bastards!'
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 2,838
    The question is just how desperate to the Tories are likely to get. Their poll ratings aren't too bad at the moment. If that changes the next leader will be someone none of us have heard of.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 13,238
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    50 minutes without a comment? Is the thread broken or is everyone else still on holiday and safely tucked up in bed?

    They're all still watching the highlights from Melbourne and shouting, 'This is how it felt, you Aussie bastards!'
    Blimey, what's happened to the pitch? Gather rain is forecast though.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 13,238
    Match in Christchurch is turning out similar. Massive NZ score in their second innings, leaving SL to score 660 in their second. At stumps 24-2!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 15,258

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    50 minutes without a comment? Is the thread broken or is everyone else still on holiday and safely tucked up in bed?

    They're all still watching the highlights from Melbourne and shouting, 'This is how it felt, you Aussie bastards!'
    Blimey, what's happened to the pitch? Gather rain is forecast though.
    The Aussies batted on it.

    Then Pujara played a duff shot.

    Apparently it's also bouncing a bit more, but those two things sum up the difference really.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,114
    I won't vote for a Tory Party if Boris is leader. He is a buffoon who cant keep his flies zipped
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 15,258

    Match in Christchurch is turning out similar. Massive NZ score in their second innings, leaving SL to score 660 in their second. At stumps 24-2!

    There are three tests going on and they all seem to be bubbling away quite nicely. Pakistan will have to bowl sensationally to win, the other two have to bat sensationally to secure draws.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 15,258
    This is an important story:

    More than half a million potholes reported last year - RAC

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46694506

    It's not just the number of them, it's the abysmal standard of the repairs. Last week three potholes were filled outside my front door. This week, the holes have all reappeared. Although they used tarmac, not just gravel, no seal was put round it so the first rainstorm saw the whole thing disintegrate again.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 13,238
    edited December 2018
    ydoethur said:

    This is an important story:

    More than half a million potholes reported last year - RAC

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46694506

    It's not just the number of them, it's the abysmal standard of the repairs. Last week three potholes were filled outside my front door. This week, the holes have all reappeared. Although they used tarmac, not just gravel, no seal was put round it so the first rainstorm saw the whole thing disintegrate again.

    There's a hole outside my house where this happens regularly. I think the pothole has been 'repaired' three times in the past four years. There's another patch further down the road where repairs break up within a very few weeks.

    Edited for silly mistake!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 21,848
    ydoethur said:

    This is an important story:

    More than half a million potholes reported last year - RAC

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46694506

    It's not just the number of them, it's the abysmal standard of the repairs. Last week three potholes were filled outside my front door. This week, the holes have all reappeared. Although they used tarmac, not just gravel, no seal was put round it so the first rainstorm saw the whole thing disintegrate again.

    On our lanes, an important factor is the size of the tractors the farmers are using. They are now so wide they are damaging the base of the Devon banks. They are so heavy that when we had the hot summer weather, their tyres were ripping up chunks off the tarmac. We then had a very hard winter that got underneath that trashed top layer. They are causing massive damage.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 13,238
    The Nigel Evans piece of Legal Aid in the Guardian is frightening, and underlines the Nasty Party description of the Tories.
    See '‘It’s completely wrong’: falsely accused Tory MP attacks legal aid cuts" on the Guardian website.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 10,267
    Potholes? Is this the Daily Mail?
  • Guten Morgen, meine Freunde.

    I think Raab, Gove, Rudd, and Mogg have little to no chance. Boris is overstated (as ever) and would be a woeful leader.

    Javid, Hunt, or Mordaunt seem likeliest to me.

    On potholes: agree entirely. The repairs tend to be sticking plasters with little adhesive.
  • When May loses her Brexit deal vote, she has to be replaced by a Leaver. Of those listed, only Raab or Mordaunt would do a decent job. Boris has no application or attention to detail, JRM has shown in recent weeks that he’s all mouth and no trousers, and Gove has no loyalty to anyone but Gove and simply can’t be trusted.

    Javid and Hunt are both straw men who voted Leave and Rudd is a motor mouth who seldom puts her brain in action and who would betray Brexit in a heartbeat.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,848

    When May loses her Brexit deal vote, she has to be replaced by a Leaver. Of those listed, only Raab or Mordaunt would do a decent job. Boris has no application or attention to detail, JRM has shown in recent weeks that he’s all mouth and no trousers, and Gove has no loyalty to anyone but Gove and simply can’t be trusted.

    Javid and Hunt are both straw men who voted Leave and Rudd is a motor mouth who seldom puts her brain in action and who would betray Brexit in a heartbeat.

    The only way she gets replaced is if she resigns, that doesn't seem very likely.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 35,302

    When May loses her Brexit deal vote, she has to be replaced by a Leaver. Of those listed, only Raab or Mordaunt would do a decent job. Boris has no application or attention to detail, JRM has shown in recent weeks that he’s all mouth and no trousers, and Gove has no loyalty to anyone but Gove and simply can’t be trusted.

    Javid and Hunt are both straw men who voted Leave and Rudd is a motor mouth who seldom puts her brain in action and who would betray Brexit in a heartbeat.

    When the only options are Raab or Mordaunt, you know something as gone wrong.
  • Mr. D, Mordaunt would make a superb PM.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 35,302

    Mr. D, Mordaunt would make a superb PM.

    A bit too junior for my liking (I am a Tory, after all). But maybe a generation has to be skipped.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 2,838

    When May loses her Brexit deal vote, she has to be replaced by a Leaver. Of those listed, only Raab or Mordaunt would do a decent job. Boris has no application or attention to detail, JRM has shown in recent weeks that he’s all mouth and no trousers, and Gove has no loyalty to anyone but Gove and simply can’t be trusted.

    Javid and Hunt are both straw men who voted Leave and Rudd is a motor mouth who seldom puts her brain in action and who would betray Brexit in a heartbeat.

    With the current Brexit process a shambles and with support for it oozing away, I would have thought that picking a remainer who respected the result was the optimum strategy from both a getting Brexit through and getting re-elected point of view. Which means Rudd or Hunt.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 37,913
    MaxPB said:

    When May loses her Brexit deal vote, she has to be replaced by a Leaver. Of those listed, only Raab or Mordaunt would do a decent job. Boris has no application or attention to detail, JRM has shown in recent weeks that he’s all mouth and no trousers, and Gove has no loyalty to anyone but Gove and simply can’t be trusted.

    Javid and Hunt are both straw men who voted Leave and Rudd is a motor mouth who seldom puts her brain in action and who would betray Brexit in a heartbeat.

    The only way she gets replaced is if she resigns, that doesn't seem very likely.
    She'll resign. At present there is still the possibility, though slight, of getting something done on brexit. When her deal fails and no deal does not spook the commons because it wants to remain instead, May will soon find herself unable to do anything and will go.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 35,302

    When May loses her Brexit deal vote, she has to be replaced by a Leaver. Of those listed, only Raab or Mordaunt would do a decent job. Boris has no application or attention to detail, JRM has shown in recent weeks that he’s all mouth and no trousers, and Gove has no loyalty to anyone but Gove and simply can’t be trusted.

    Javid and Hunt are both straw men who voted Leave and Rudd is a motor mouth who seldom puts her brain in action and who would betray Brexit in a heartbeat.

    With the current Brexit process a shambles and with support for it oozing away, I would have thought that picking a remainer who respected the result was the optimum strategy from both a getting Brexit through and getting re-elected point of view. Which means Rudd or Hunt.
    I soo like Rudd, but maybe her seat is too marginal. :D
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 15,258

    ydoethur said:

    This is an important story:

    More than half a million potholes reported last year - RAC

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46694506

    It's not just the number of them, it's the abysmal standard of the repairs. Last week three potholes were filled outside my front door. This week, the holes have all reappeared. Although they used tarmac, not just gravel, no seal was put round it so the first rainstorm saw the whole thing disintegrate again.

    On our lanes, an important factor is the size of the tractors the farmers are using. They are now so wide they are damaging the base of the Devon banks. They are so heavy that when we had the hot summer weather, their tyres were ripping up chunks off the tarmac. We then had a very hard winter that got underneath that trashed top layer. They are causing massive damage.
    Is it possible to buy smaller tractors now, though?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 9,287
    h
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    50 minutes without a comment? Is the thread broken or is everyone else still on holiday and safely tucked up in bed?

    They're all still watching the highlights from Melbourne and shouting, 'This is how it felt, you Aussie bastards!'
    Blimey, what's happened to the pitch? Gather rain is forecast though.
    The Aussies batted on it.

    Then Pujara played a duff shot.

    Apparently it's also bouncing a bit more, but those two things sum up the difference really.
    Bumrah bowled brilliantly, by all accounts. I like the Aussie pitch description - 22 yards of cat vomit (and that was before their abject batting display).

    Toxic cat vomit now, I suspect.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 9,287

    Mr. D, Mordaunt would make a superb PM.

    Of no discernible talents - other than persuading you to put money on her ?
  • Mr. B, recent evidence (even were we to assume you were correct on Mordaunt) would not suggest the possession of talent is indicative of prospects in a leadership contest.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 20,383

    I guess the real question is “Who is the not Boris?

    Sajid or Jeremy?

    God help us if that is the best they can muster, pick a donkey , any donkey.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 9,287

    The Nigel Evans piece of Legal Aid in the Guardian is frightening, and underlines the Nasty Party description of the Tories.
    See '‘It’s completely wrong’: falsely accused Tory MP attacks legal aid cuts" on the Guardian website.

    We are approaching the US situation, where justice is only available to the rich.

    Though of course the rich are sometimes above the law to an unconscionable extent:
    https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/article220097825.html
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 20,383
    DavidL said:

    50 minutes without a comment? Is the thread broken or is everyone else still on holiday and safely tucked up in bed?

    Only so much you can say about a bunch of Donkeys David
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 15,258
    Nigelb said:

    h

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    50 minutes without a comment? Is the thread broken or is everyone else still on holiday and safely tucked up in bed?

    They're all still watching the highlights from Melbourne and shouting, 'This is how it felt, you Aussie bastards!'
    Blimey, what's happened to the pitch? Gather rain is forecast though.
    The Aussies batted on it.

    Then Pujara played a duff shot.

    Apparently it's also bouncing a bit more, but those two things sum up the difference really.
    Bumrah bowled brilliantly, by all accounts. I like the Aussie pitch description - 22 yards of cat vomit (and that was before their abject batting display).

    Toxic cat vomit now, I suspect.

    It certainly threw up a surprise.

    Yes, the commentary on Bumrah does suggest he bowled exceptionally well (an Indian quick bowling well? Are we facing the end times)? But let's face it, without Steve Smith this Aussie batting lineup wouldn't frighten Yorkshire 2nd XI.
  • Nigelb said:

    The Nigel Evans piece of Legal Aid in the Guardian is frightening, and underlines the Nasty Party description of the Tories.
    See '‘It’s completely wrong’: falsely accused Tory MP attacks legal aid cuts" on the Guardian website.

    We are approaching the US situation, where justice is only available to the rich.

    Though of course the rich are sometimes above the law to an unconscionable extent:
    https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/article220097825.html
    Plebs don’t deserve justice following their shameful decision to back Brexit.

    We spend x million on Legal Aid, we should spend that on the NHS.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 37,913

    Mr. B, recent evidence (even were we to assume you were correct on Mordaunt) would not suggest the possession of talent is indicative of prospects in a leadership contest.

    Indeed not but there still needs to be a reason for them to win over fellow Mps. Is she a stop Boris candidate, an anti remain candidate, is she super competent or able to be publicly popular? What is her pitch to Mps and does she live up to that pitch?

    I confess other than her being attractive I don't recall much of her.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 15,258
    malcolmg said:

    I guess the real question is “Who is the not Boris?

    Sajid or Jeremy?

    God help us if that is the best they can muster, pick a donkey , any donkey.
    Ronnie Barker joke:

    What's the difference between a donkey and an ass?

    One's a Trades Unionist, the other's a member of the cabinet.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 20,383

    When May loses her Brexit deal vote, she has to be replaced by a Leaver. Of those listed, only Raab or Mordaunt would do a decent job. Boris has no application or attention to detail, JRM has shown in recent weeks that he’s all mouth and no trousers, and Gove has no loyalty to anyone but Gove and simply can’t be trusted.

    Javid and Hunt are both straw men who voted Leave and Rudd is a motor mouth who seldom puts her brain in action and who would betray Brexit in a heartbeat.

    What could possibly lead you to believe Raab or Mordaunt could run a bath never mind a country.
  • On topic, laying Boris was profitable last time and I expect it will be the same this time.

    Prime Minister in waiting Jeremy Hunt is the man to watch.

    Javid is still one blunder away from being the new John Moore. Cf his radio interview before Christmas, but I’m glad I backed him at circa at 60/1 just before my bet on him to succeed Rudd at 33/1.
  • Mr. kle4, reaching the top two requires not being something, rather than being something.

    Mordaunt's neither a Grievance Remainer nor a Borisian Leaver. She isn't too old. She isn't inexperienced in ministerial terms (handy, when the leader becomes PM right away). She doesn't have baggage of a personal or political nature (the longer Javid's at Home, the longer the odds of something just going wrong, whether his doing or not).
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 37,913
    RobD said:

    When May loses her Brexit deal vote, she has to be replaced by a Leaver. Of those listed, only Raab or Mordaunt would do a decent job. Boris has no application or attention to detail, JRM has shown in recent weeks that he’s all mouth and no trousers, and Gove has no loyalty to anyone but Gove and simply can’t be trusted.

    Javid and Hunt are both straw men who voted Leave and Rudd is a motor mouth who seldom puts her brain in action and who would betray Brexit in a heartbeat.

    With the current Brexit process a shambles and with support for it oozing away, I would have thought that picking a remainer who respected the result was the optimum strategy from both a getting Brexit through and getting re-elected point of view. Which means Rudd or Hunt.
    I soo like Rudd, but maybe her seat is too marginal. :D
    All she needs to do is get all her party behind her and get the DUP back on board and they can get through the boundary changes and an easier seat is created nearby apparently which she could stand in. Simples

    Not happening.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 20,383
    kle4 said:

    Mr. B, recent evidence (even were we to assume you were correct on Mordaunt) would not suggest the possession of talent is indicative of prospects in a leadership contest.

    Indeed not but there still needs to be a reason for them to win over fellow Mps. Is she a stop Boris candidate, an anti remain candidate, is she super competent or able to be publicly popular? What is her pitch to Mps and does she live up to that pitch?

    I confess other than her being attractive I don't recall much of her.
    Specsavers for you Kle4
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 37,913
    edited December 2018
    malcolmg said:

    I guess the real question is “Who is the not Boris?

    Sajid or Jeremy?

    God help us if that is the best they can muster, pick a donkey , any donkey.
    I think that's how they ended up with those two in the first place.

    I've quite turned against both. Even during the most critical period of brexit all they seem to care about is careful positioning for a leadership contest. They could pretend a bit more at least.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 20,383
    kle4 said:

    malcolmg said:

    I guess the real question is “Who is the not Boris?

    Sajid or Jeremy?

    God help us if that is the best they can muster, pick a donkey , any donkey.
    I think that's how they ended up with those two in the first place.

    I've quite turned against both. Even during the most critical period of brexit all they seem to care about is careful positioning for a leadership contest. They could pretend a bit more at least.
    That would involve having some intelligence and principles.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 9,287
    .
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    h

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    50 minutes without a comment? Is the thread broken or is everyone else still on holiday and safely tucked up in bed?

    They're all still watching the highlights from Melbourne and shouting, 'This is how it felt, you Aussie bastards!'
    Blimey, what's happened to the pitch? Gather rain is forecast though.
    The Aussies batted on it.

    Then Pujara played a duff shot.

    Apparently it's also bouncing a bit more, but those two things sum up the difference really.
    Bumrah bowled brilliantly, by all accounts. I like the Aussie pitch description - 22 yards of cat vomit (and that was before their abject batting display).

    Toxic cat vomit now, I suspect.

    It certainly threw up a surprise.

    Yes, the commentary on Bumrah does suggest he bowled exceptionally well (an Indian quick bowling well? Are we facing the end times)? But let's face it, without Steve Smith this Aussie batting lineup wouldn't frighten Yorkshire 2nd XI.
    He’s played eight tests, has five fers against England, Australia and SA, averages around 23, and shows the kind of skills that Anderson took a decade to master. I think he’s quite good....

    ... and please forgive the regurgitation of statistics.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 37,913
    malcolmg said:

    kle4 said:

    malcolmg said:

    I guess the real question is “Who is the not Boris?

    Sajid or Jeremy?

    God help us if that is the best they can muster, pick a donkey , any donkey.
    I think that's how they ended up with those two in the first place.

    I've quite turned against both. Even during the most critical period of brexit all they seem to care about is careful positioning for a leadership contest. They could pretend a bit more at least.
    That would involve having some intelligence and principles.
    One of the two would be sufficient right now!
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 10,267
    kle4 said:

    malcolmg said:

    I guess the real question is “Who is the not Boris?

    Sajid or Jeremy?

    God help us if that is the best they can muster, pick a donkey , any donkey.
    I think that's how they ended up with those two in the first place.

    I've quite turned against both. Even during the most critical period of brexit all they seem to care about is careful positioning for a leadership contest. They could pretend a bit more at least.
    That’s a bit harsh, they did not make Mays leadership an issue and any politician worth their salt would have to respond to the situation.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 15,258

    On topic, laying Boris was profitable last time

    Please excuse me while I throw up.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 4,970
    Mr G

    "Specsavers for you Kle4."

    I've decided politics is now so dysfunctional, I'll concentrate on assessing the females for attractiveness and nothing else.

    Ms Mordaunt? I've seen a lot worse.

    Priti Patel was attractive, but she's put on a bit of timber lately. One or two in the Labour Party are passable, but being honest, the Commons is Kennel country really. They might win a prize at Crufts, but that's all they're good for.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 37,913
    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    malcolmg said:

    I guess the real question is “Who is the not Boris?

    Sajid or Jeremy?

    God help us if that is the best they can muster, pick a donkey , any donkey.
    I think that's how they ended up with those two in the first place.

    I've quite turned against both. Even during the most critical period of brexit all they seem to care about is careful positioning for a leadership contest. They could pretend a bit more at least.
    That’s a bit harsh, they did not make Mays leadership an issue and any politician worth their salt would have to respond to the situation.
    They have attimes leaked that they have concerns about the deal while not being brave enough to just quit, and are openly on manuevers, putting in little effort on selling that which they purportedly support, transparently because they will pretend later they had no choice but to back it.

    No I don't expect politicians to ignore leadership wrangling. But they could put more effort in to looking like they care about what us before us right now beyond their chance to be PM, and they could show some leadership and spine if they are not satisfied. Silly as it was those cabinet members not quitting while publicly trying to change the deal showed more spine.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 15,258
    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    malcolmg said:

    I guess the real question is “Who is the not Boris?

    Sajid or Jeremy?

    God help us if that is the best they can muster, pick a donkey , any donkey.
    I think that's how they ended up with those two in the first place.

    I've quite turned against both. Even during the most critical period of brexit all they seem to care about is careful positioning for a leadership contest. They could pretend a bit more at least.
    That’s a bit harsh, they did not make Mays leadership an issue and any politician worth their salt would have to respond to the situation.
    Says quite a lot about Labour that with the possible exception of Clive Lewis nobody seems to be trying to take advantage of Jeremy Corbyn's increasingly abject performance.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 15,258
    CD13 said:

    Priti Patel was attractive, but she's put on a bit of timber lately.

    Really? I judge people by ability, so I woodn't know.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 37,913
    ydoethur said:

    CD13 said:

    Priti Patel was attractive, but she's put on a bit of timber lately.

    Really? I judge people by ability, so I woodn't know.
    Oof. You're barking up the wrong tree with that comment.
  • I think Mordaunt ticks a lot of boxes, a leaver who can offer generational change.

    She's stayed in office whilst others have quit, non toxic background in international development. Seems relatable with a working class background. If I was a Tory MP my only criteria is, can this person win an election against Corbyn?

    I think Penny is value at current price
  • Mr. kle4, just leaf it.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 15,258
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    CD13 said:

    Priti Patel was attractive, but she's put on a bit of timber lately.

    Really? I judge people by ability, so I woodn't know.
    Oof. You're barking up the wrong tree with that comment.
    I wondered who wood twig first...
  • Mr. kle4, reaching the top two requires not being something, rather than being something.

    Mordaunt's neither a Grievance Remainer nor a Borisian Leaver. She isn't too old. She isn't inexperienced in ministerial terms (handy, when the leader becomes PM right away). She doesn't have baggage of a personal or political nature (the longer Javid's at Home, the longer the odds of something just going wrong, whether his doing or not).

    She is, however, a shameless and proven liar.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 15,258

    Mr. kle4, just leaf it.

    Bud it's funny, Mr Dancer!
  • Mr. Meeks, are you saying that as a pro, or a con?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 3,143
    edited December 2018
    When Cameron was PM there were three clear and papabile candidates to succeed him: Osborne, May, and Johnson.

    It’s really not clear if there are any decent successors to May.

    So we are left with Hunt and Javid, and whichever it is will lose in 2022 to whoever it is that succeeds Corbyn.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 15,258

    Mr. kle4, reaching the top two requires not being something, rather than being something.

    Mordaunt's neither a Grievance Remainer nor a Borisian Leaver. She isn't too old. She isn't inexperienced in ministerial terms (handy, when the leader becomes PM right away). She doesn't have baggage of a personal or political nature (the longer Javid's at Home, the longer the odds of something just going wrong, whether his doing or not).

    She is, however, a shameless and proven liar.
    So she would measure up well against Corbyn?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 24,242
    Nigelb said:

    The Nigel Evans piece of Legal Aid in the Guardian is frightening, and underlines the Nasty Party description of the Tories.
    See '‘It’s completely wrong’: falsely accused Tory MP attacks legal aid cuts" on the Guardian website.

    We are approaching the US situation, where justice is only available to the rich.

    Though of course the rich are sometimes above the law to an unconscionable extent:
    https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/article220097825.html
    Even if one is rich, the US justice system can be terrifying.
  • mattmatt Posts: 2,300
    edited December 2018

    Mr. kle4, reaching the top two requires not being something, rather than being something.

    Mordaunt's neither a Grievance Remainer nor a Borisian Leaver. She isn't too old. She isn't inexperienced in ministerial terms (handy, when the leader becomes PM right away). She doesn't have baggage of a personal or political nature (the longer Javid's at Home, the longer the odds of something just going wrong, whether his doing or not).

    She is, however, a shameless and proven liar.
    Not a hindrance any longer, as politicians from every party repeatedly prove.

    A professional aside, these liars and charlatans set the standards that drive my (and your) regulator. That most (let’s be charitable, many) do not have the intellectual characteristics, probity or work ethic to behave in the way that they want others to behave is disappointing.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 12,971
    Skip over this if you are having breakfast, but JRM did really offer the prolonged lay of the year.
  • Mr. Meeks, are you saying that as a pro, or a con?

    At a time when public confidence in politicians is at an all-time low, the Conservatives would be ill-advised to choose someone who told the simplest of lies in pursuit of her policy objectives. She would become the poster child for everything that went wrong with Brexit.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 15,258

    When Cameron was PM there were three clear and papabile candidates to succeed him: Osborne, May, and Johnson.

    It’s really not clear if there are any decent successors to May.

    So we are left with Hunt and Javid, and whichever it is will lose in 2022 to whoever it is that succeeds Corbyn.

    I wouldn't have said either May or Johnson were seen as especially likely successors to Cameron. It was Osborne, first and last and all the time, who was the anointed one, with Crabb seen as an outside bet on the left and Gove on the right.

    Osborne trashing himself along with Cameron left the way clear for either Hammond or May, and Hammond's decision not to run, Gove's decision to destroy himself (much feasting on schadenfreude among teachers) Boris being Boris and Crabb and Leadsom being seen as too inexperienced left May as the last one standing.

    That was however doubtless profitable for those who took the oft-repeated tip by me and David Herdson among many others to lay the favourite. And May was, I suppose, one name mentioned as a possible under unusual circumstances. But to call her 'clear and palpable' is an overstatement.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 24,242
    ydoethur said:

    On topic, laying Boris was profitable last time

    Please excuse me while I throw up.
    It does conjure up a horrible mental picture.
  • IanB2 said:

    Skip over this if you are having breakfast, but JRM did really offer the prolonged lay of the year.

    My only regret is that I eventually closed out that lay on this market, albeit very profitably. I should have left it open, as I have done on the next Prime Minister market.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 15,258
    edited December 2018
    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    On topic, laying Boris was profitable last time

    Please excuse me while I throw up.
    It does conjure up a horrible mental picture.
    Not as bad as this one though:
    IanB2 said:

    Skip over this if you are having breakfast, but JRM did really offer the prolonged lay of the year.

    :hushed:
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 24,242
    matt said:

    Mr. kle4, reaching the top two requires not being something, rather than being something.

    Mordaunt's neither a Grievance Remainer nor a Borisian Leaver. She isn't too old. She isn't inexperienced in ministerial terms (handy, when the leader becomes PM right away). She doesn't have baggage of a personal or political nature (the longer Javid's at Home, the longer the odds of something just going wrong, whether his doing or not).

    She is, however, a shameless and proven liar.
    Not a hindrance any longer, as politicians from every party repeatedly prove.
    Probably an advantage.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 24,242
    @
    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    On topic, laying Boris was profitable last time

    Please excuse me while I throw up.
    It does conjure up a horrible mental picture.
    Not as bad as this one though:
    IanB2 said:

    Skip over this if you are having breakfast, but JRM did really offer the prolonged lay of the year.

    :hushed:
    No, it's worse. You'd have to put up with Boris declaiming "ego vos pedicabo et irrumabo."
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 3,143
    edited December 2018
    Strikingly, there appears to be no original policy thinking in the broader swathes of the Tory party: not on the backbenches, not in the thinktanks.

    All is consumed by the “creation science” of Brexitism, trying to prove the the co-existence of Adam and Dinosaurs etc. None of this is going to make the country fit for the 2020s, let alone the Tory party.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 15,258
    edited December 2018
    Sean_F said:

    @

    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    On topic, laying Boris was profitable last time

    Please excuse me while I throw up.
    It does conjure up a horrible mental picture.
    Not as bad as this one though:
    IanB2 said:

    Skip over this if you are having breakfast, but JRM did really offer the prolonged lay of the year.

    :hushed:
    No, it's worse. You'd have to put up with Boris declaiming "ego vos pedicabo et irrumabo."
    Whereas JRM would count:

    Primus, secundus, tertius, quartus, quintus, SEXTUS!!!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 24,242

    Strikingly, there appears to be no original policy thinking in the broader swathes of the Tory party: not on the backbenches, not in the thinktanks.

    All is consumed by the “creation science” of Brexitism, trying to prove the the co-existence of Adam and Dinosaurs etc. None of this is going to make the country fit for the 2020s, let alone the Tory party.

    All is consumed by the desire to take out enemies and pursue grudges.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 3,143
    edited December 2018
    ydoethur said:

    When Cameron was PM there were three clear and papabile candidates to succeed him: Osborne, May, and Johnson.

    It’s really not clear if there are any decent successors to May.

    So we are left with Hunt and Javid, and whichever it is will lose in 2022 to whoever it is that succeeds Corbyn.

    I wouldn't have said either May or Johnson were seen as especially likely successors to Cameron. It was Osborne, first and last and all the time, who was the anointed one, with Crabb seen as an outside bet on the left and Gove on the right.

    Osborne trashing himself along with Cameron left the way clear for either Hammond or May, and Hammond's decision not to run, Gove's decision to destroy himself (much feasting on schadenfreude among teachers) Boris being Boris and Crabb and Leadsom being seen as too inexperienced left May as the last one standing.

    That was however doubtless profitable for those who took the oft-repeated tip by me and David Herdson among many others to lay the favourite. And May was, I suppose, one name mentioned as a possible under unusual circumstances. But to call her 'clear and palpable' is an overstatement.
    We have different recollections.
    From 2010 onwards, I would have cast Johnson as the favourite to succeed Cameron, with Osborne handicapped by his unfavourable public image. May was about the only other Cabinet Minister with a national profile, and - bizarre as it now seems - was considered one of the modernisers with broadly sympathetic coverage even in the Guardian.

    Gove was never really seen as a runner - too speccy. And Crabbe, Leadsom - who s/he?
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 232

    Nigelb said:

    The Nigel Evans piece of Legal Aid in the Guardian is frightening, and underlines the Nasty Party description of the Tories.
    See '‘It’s completely wrong’: falsely accused Tory MP attacks legal aid cuts" on the Guardian website.

    We are approaching the US situation, where justice is only available to the rich.

    Though of course the rich are sometimes above the law to an unconscionable extent:
    https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/article220097825.html
    Plebs don’t deserve justice following their shameful decision to back Brexit.

    We spend x million on Legal Aid, we should spend that on the NHS.
    Without legal aid we might find out the real market rate for some legal services. It might be lower than you think.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 21,848
    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    @

    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    On topic, laying Boris was profitable last time

    Please excuse me while I throw up.
    It does conjure up a horrible mental picture.
    Not as bad as this one though:
    IanB2 said:

    Skip over this if you are having breakfast, but JRM did really offer the prolonged lay of the year.

    :hushed:
    No, it's worse. You'd have to put up with Boris declaiming "ego vos pedicabo et irrumabo."
    Whereas JRM would count:

    Primus, secundus, tertius, quartus, quintus, SEXTUS!!!
    "SEXTUS!!!" would be the least likely career-ending text message to be sent by JRM.....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 15,258

    Strikingly, there appears to be no original policy thinking in the broader swathes of the Tory party: not on the backbenches, not in the thinktanks.

    All is consumed by the “creation science” of Brexitism, trying to prove the the co-existence of Adam and Dinosaurs etc. None of this is going to make the country fit for the 2020s, let alone the Tory party.

    Which makes it all the more depressing that insofar as Labour have any policy other than 'the Tories are evil, vote for us because as supporters of mass murderers we're much nicer,' they veer from the unworkable to the unoriginal to the actively dishonest.

    To be honest, I have thought for a long time and I still think the biggest challenge facing us is power generation. All of the options we currently have are either poor, or unsustainable. Wind, for example, can produce 30% of our power but last night produced just 2%.

    Yet the government is industriously screwing up this aspect of our infrastructure. Given a choice between building a tidal lagoon - which after construction would grant low-cost electricity more or less indefinitely with minimal environmental impact - or building a nuclear plant which will cost a fortune to build and maintain and irradiate an area for thousands of years afterwards - they went for the latter.

    As a nation, we need our heads examining.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 3,143
    edited December 2018
    Sean_F said:

    Strikingly, there appears to be no original policy thinking in the broader swathes of the Tory party: not on the backbenches, not in the thinktanks.

    All is consumed by the “creation science” of Brexitism, trying to prove the the co-existence of Adam and Dinosaurs etc. None of this is going to make the country fit for the 2020s, let alone the Tory party.

    All is consumed by the desire to take out enemies and pursue grudges.
    The only thing keeping the government going is fear of Corbyn and May’s Brexit impulse.

    I have never seen a government more ideologically exhausted.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 37,913
    Corbyn had better be careful, some people think it is immoral to deny ancillary staff their holiday by recalling parliament.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 37,913

    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    @

    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    On topic, laying Boris was profitable last time

    Please excuse me while I throw up.
    It does conjure up a horrible mental picture.
    Not as bad as this one though:
    IanB2 said:

    Skip over this if you are having breakfast, but JRM did really offer the prolonged lay of the year.

    :hushed:
    No, it's worse. You'd have to put up with Boris declaiming "ego vos pedicabo et irrumabo."
    Whereas JRM would count:

    Primus, secundus, tertius, quartus, quintus, SEXTUS!!!
    "SEXTUS!!!" would be the least likely career-ending text message to be sent by JRM.....
    He only communicates via semaphore.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 9,287
    edited December 2018
    ydoethur said:

    Strikingly, there appears to be no original policy thinking in the broader swathes of the Tory party: not on the backbenches, not in the thinktanks.

    All is consumed by the “creation science” of Brexitism, trying to prove the the co-existence of Adam and Dinosaurs etc. None of this is going to make the country fit for the 2020s, let alone the Tory party.

    Which makes it all the more depressing that insofar as Labour have any policy other than 'the Tories are evil, vote for us because as supporters of mass murderers we're much nicer,' they veer from the unworkable to the unoriginal to the actively dishonest.

    To be honest, I have thought for a long time and I still think the biggest challenge facing us is power generation. All of the options we currently have are either poor, or unsustainable. Wind, for example, can produce 30% of our power but last night produced just 2%.

    Yet the government is industriously screwing up this aspect of our infrastructure. Given a choice between building a tidal lagoon - which after construction would grant low-cost electricity more or less indefinitely with minimal environmental impact - or building a nuclear plant which will cost a fortune to build and maintain and irradiate an area for thousands of years afterwards - they went for the latter.

    As a nation, we need our heads examining.
    Nothing wrong with the head of state - it's the chief executive whose decisions are wanting.

    But you are entirely right.
    To have dismissed tidal power on grounds of cost, while proceeding with the absurd and absurdly expensive nuclear project is unfathomable.

    (I am not anti-nuclear, and think some of the new technologies - small scale molten salt plants, for example - are worth pursuing.)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 9,287
    There are a number of widely know, iconic D-Day images.

    This isn't one of them...
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46694509
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 2,838
    ydoethur said:

    Strikingly, there appears to be no original policy thinking in the broader swathes of the Tory party: not on the backbenches, not in the thinktanks.

    All is consumed by the “creation science” of Brexitism, trying to prove the the co-existence of Adam and Dinosaurs etc. None of this is going to make the country fit for the 2020s, let alone the Tory party.

    Which makes it all the more depressing that insofar as Labour have any policy other than 'the Tories are evil, vote for us because as supporters of mass murderers we're much nicer,' they veer from the unworkable to the unoriginal to the actively dishonest.

    To be honest, I have thought for a long time and I still think the biggest challenge facing us is power generation. All of the options we currently have are either poor, or unsustainable. Wind, for example, can produce 30% of our power but last night produced just 2%.

    Yet the government is industriously screwing up this aspect of our infrastructure. Given a choice between building a tidal lagoon - which after construction would grant low-cost electricity more or less indefinitely with minimal environmental impact - or building a nuclear plant which will cost a fortune to build and maintain and irradiate an area for thousands of years afterwards - they went for the latter.

    As a nation, we need our heads examining.
    Exactly. We should be talking about things like power generation, and all the other details that summed together make the country what it is. Us anoraks on here at least get to enjoy the self indulgent fun and games in Westminster, but it leaves most people cold.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,305
    edited December 2018
    If May goes at the end of next year after being challenged again and losing, especially under a No Deal scenario having failed to get her Deal through, then Boris if he gets to the membership will likely win it. If the DUP no confidence her and there is a general election next Spring and Corbyn becomes PM then Boris also likely becomes Leader of the opposition.

    If May does get her Deal through either the DUP back a vote of no confidence and she wins a majority at a general election next Spring or she manages to assure them on the backstop and remains leader and PM for years allowing a fresh fsced Deal backer like Tom Tugenhadt to come into the frame.

    Given 89% of Tory members oppose a second EU referendum according to ConHome this morning (more than oppose May's Deal) no Tory PM is likely to go down that route


    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/12/a-second-referendum-remains-deeply-unpopular-among-conservative-party-members.html
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,305
    Angina Jolie suggests she wants to enter politics

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-46699457
  • eekeek Posts: 2,588
    kle4 said:

    Corbyn had better be careful, some people think it is immoral to deny ancillary staff their holiday by recalling parliament.

    I think there is a big difference between working on December 27/28th/31st and returning to work on January 2nd...

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 21,378

    She’s attempting to pursue a policy on Brexit that appears to satisfy few within her party

    And yet, Mrs May is routinely denounced for “putting Party before Country”.....

    She offers nothing for everyone.
    Disagree

    I think she offers everything to no one
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 11,855

    Strikingly, there appears to be no original policy thinking in the broader swathes of the Tory party: not on the backbenches, not in the thinktanks.

    All is consumed by the “creation science” of Brexitism, trying to prove the the co-existence of Adam and Dinosaurs etc. None of this is going to make the country fit for the 2020s, let alone the Tory party.

    Not entirely true. This paper, admittedly by a Tory MP not many have heard of, is quite thoughtful - http://johnpenrose.org/wp/2018/10/01/a-shining-city/.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 11,855
    notme2 said:


    Nigelb said:

    The Nigel Evans piece of Legal Aid in the Guardian is frightening, and underlines the Nasty Party description of the Tories.
    See '‘It’s completely wrong’: falsely accused Tory MP attacks legal aid cuts" on the Guardian website.

    We are approaching the US situation, where justice is honly available to the rich.

    Though of course the rich are sometimes above the law to an unconscionable extent:
    https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/article220097825.html
    Plebs don’t deserve justice following their shameful decision to back Brexit.

    We spend x million on Legal Aid, we should spend that on the NHS.
    Without legal aid we might find out the real market rate for some legal services. It might be lower than you think.
    How much would you pay to avoid being wrongly convicted and sent to prison? Or to gain access to see your child? Or to stop being evicted? Or to gain compensation for medical negligence? Or to get the right sort of education for your autistic child?
  • TomsToms Posts: 1,652
    Charles said:

    She’s attempting to pursue a policy on Brexit that appears to satisfy few within her party

    And yet, Mrs May is routinely denounced for “putting Party before Country”.....

    She offers nothing for everyone.
    Disagree

    I think she offers everything to no one
    0 x 1 =1 x 0 = 0
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 21,378

    The Nigel Evans piece of Legal Aid in the Guardian is frightening, and underlines the Nasty Party description of the Tories.
    See '‘It’s completely wrong’: falsely accused Tory MP attacks legal aid cuts" on the Guardian website.

    Access to justice is important

    There are clearly (or used to be) some frivolous cases that are supported and there have been some who have sought to weaponise litigation for political purposes (eg where an individual is backed by a political campaign I can see an argument for treating them differently as they are not “just” an ordinary citizen seeking justice) but the anecdotal reports suggest it has been too crudely restricted
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 24,242
    notme2 said:


    Nigelb said:

    The Nigel Evans piece of Legal Aid in the Guardian is frightening, and underlines the Nasty Party description of the Tories.
    See '‘It’s completely wrong’: falsely accused Tory MP attacks legal aid cuts" on the Guardian website.

    We are approaching the US situation, where justice is only available to the rich.

    Though of course the rich are sometimes above the law to an unconscionable extent:
    https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/article220097825.html
    Plebs don’t deserve justice following their shameful decision to back Brexit.

    We spend x million on Legal Aid, we should spend that on the NHS.
    Without legal aid we might find out the real market rate for some legal services. It might be lower than you think.
    The Golden Era of legal aid (from a lawyer's point of view) when it really was a licence to print money, came to an end in about 2000.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 6,588
    HYUFD said:

    If May goes at the end of next year after being challenged again and losing, especially under a No Deal scenario having failed to get her Deal through, then Boris if he gets to the membership will likely win it. If the DUP no confidence her and there is a general election next Spring and Corbyn becomes PM then Boris also likely becomes Leader of the opposition.

    If May does get her Deal through either the DUP back a vote of no confidence and she wins a majority at a general election next Spring or she manages to assure them on the backstop and remains leader and PM for years allowing a fresh fsced Deal backer like Tom Tugenhadt to come into the frame.

    Given 89% of Tory members oppose a second EU referendum according to ConHome this morning (more than oppose May's Deal) no Tory PM is likely to go down that route


    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/12/a-second-referendum-remains-deeply-unpopular-among-conservative-party-members.html

    Blimey, I never appreciated that Tory membership is now down to just 1201 people.

    Perhaps a few of us lefties should join it and turn it into the Conservative Socialist Party? :wink:
This discussion has been closed.