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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After Thursday’s Alastair Meeks 2019 predictions David Herdson

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Comments

  • The whole thing is an extortion racket, and the home office using implicit threats of deportation for noncompliance is shameful.

    I strongly urge any EU citizen to join the boycott of this nasty little bureaufascist scheme.

    Why is it an extortion racket when its in line with EU guidelines?

    Your registration certificate should be issued immediately and cost no more than the price nationals pay for identity cards.

    https://europa.eu/youreurope/citizens/residence/documents-formalities/registering-residence/index_en.htm

    We don’t have ID cards, do we?
    We have passports.

    Those are more expensive.

    All EU member states have passports.


    And many of them fine you for not carrying ID.....and proof of residence....

    So what?
    Our process is easier and less punitive than that used in many EU countries.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    RobD said:

    As a reminder for those outraged that the UK will require EU citizens to register after Brexit.

    Its something many (if not most) EU countries have required of UK citizens since 1973

    During the first 3 months of your stay in your new country, as EU national, you cannot be required to apply for a residence document confirming your right to live there - although in some countries you may have to report your presence upon arrival.

    After 3 months in your new country, you may be required to register your residence with the relevant authority (often the town hall or local police station), and to be issued with a registration certificate.

    You will need a valid identity card or passport and:

    Employees / Postings abroad
    Certificate of employment or confirmation of recruitment from your employer

    Self-employed
    Proof of your status as self-employed

    Pensioners
    Proof of comprehensive health insurance
    Proof you can support yourself without needing income support: resources may come from any source

    Students
    Proof of enrolment at an approved educational establishment
    Proof of comprehensive health insurance
    Declaration that you have sufficient resources to support yourself without needing income support: resources may come from any source


    https://europa.eu/youreurope/citizens/residence/documents-formalities/registering-residence/index_en.htm

    I must have missed the howls of outrage....

    Registering residence is not the same as applying for it.

    From the EU's notes it sounds as though registration is required to confirm your right to live there. How is the Home Office's scheme any different?

    The Home Office has chosen to say people must apply.

    I presume because the UK has added 'Checks for criminality'.

    Should we not have done?

    Nope, I think we shouldn’t have done anything to change the current status of EU citizens in the UK. I think we should have sorted that out the day after the referendum unilaterally and left absolutely no room for doubt. That would have been a powerful statement of goodwill.

    if theres one thing negotiations have shown us its that there is no goodwill

    This is business
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    In my circles, admitting to Leave is akin to admitting to a mental and moral lapse, like a bout of petty theft.

    The correct response is no longer anger, but pity, as one pities those on the receipt of phishing scams.

    Everyone is bored of Brexit of course, but one supposes World War II was rather boring on occasion. I don’t really detect any softening in attitudes if you really probe for an opinion.

    At least world war two sorted out the status of Danzig. I don't think Brexit will settle anything.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812

    RobD said:

    As a reminder for those outraged that the UK will require EU citizens to register after Brexit.

    Its something many (if not most) EU countries have required of UK citizens since 1973

    During the first 3 months of your stay in your new country, as EU national, you cannot be required to apply for a residence document confirming your right to live there - although in some countries you may have to report your presence upon arrival.

    After 3 months in your new country, you may be required to register your residence with the relevant authority (often the town hall or local police station), and to be issued with a registration certificate.

    You will need a valid identity card or passport and:

    Employees / Postings abroad
    Certificate of employment or confirmation of recruitment from your employer

    Self-employed
    Proof of your status as self-employed

    Pensioners
    Proof of comprehensive health insurance
    Proof you can support yourself without needing income support: resources may come from any source

    Students
    Proof of enrolment at an approved educational establishment
    Proof of comprehensive health insurance
    Declaration that you have sufficient resources to support yourself without needing income support: resources may come from any source


    https://europa.eu/youreurope/citizens/residence/documents-formalities/registering-residence/index_en.htm

    I must have missed the howls of outrage....

    Registering residence is not the same as applying for it.

    From the EU's notes it sounds as though registration is required to confirm your right to live there. How is the Home Office's scheme any different?

    The Home Office has chosen to say people must apply.

    I presume because the UK has added 'Checks for criminality'.

    Should we not have done?

    Nope, I think we shouldn’t have done anything to change the current status of EU citizens in the UK. I think we should have sorted that out the day after the referendum unilaterally and left absolutely no room for doubt. That would have been a powerful statement of goodwill.

    if theres one thing negotiations have shown us its that there is no goodwill

    This is business
    If Brexit was a business it would be liquidation already. It promises only losses, and has a dwindling number of subscribers.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,724
    edited December 2018
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:



    Personally I'm hoping that I shall have an operation this year which will sort out my lumbar stenosis and in due course give me both legs again. I also hope that this time next year I shall be in a warmer climate.

    I had that operation early last year and it went very well (although as a progressive condition some of the symptoms have returned), so I wish you the best of luck. Very important to follow the post-op instructions regarding exercise, and the things you shouldn't be doing.
    Having scrolled back to find something else I found your very kind and helpful post. I'm sorry to learn that some of the symptoms have returned; an acquaintance who has also had it done reports that he's back to normal. Or, at least his wife reports that he is. Might be different!

    TBH I'm looking forward to getting back to exercise, especially walking!
    The 'rest' part of the instructions (especially limiting sitting during the post-op period) are just as important. I know someone who had a similar op at the same time as me; she felt good afterwards and did too much too soon, and ended up with no end of complications.
    Thanks. Apparently my acquaintance ate his meals standing up for a couple of weeks. He's quite tall, so that must have looked odd! However, if that's what one has to do........
    I can see me putting my computer on a high shelf, too!
    Apart from the prescribed walking several times a day (important to keep everything moving to try and avoid scar tissue forming along the spinal canal), I spent most of the post-op period lying down. Get some box sets or sign up to Netflix and/or Amazon Prime!
    Hmm. Not a great TV watcher. Can see myself lying face down reading.
    Advice and comment much appreciated though.
  • HYUFD said:

    Hope 2 is wrong. Apart from that, seems a sensible enough set of predictions. If 2 is wrong, May is sure to go. That would be fantastic news for the Tories.

    Interesting that no one is making any predictions on domestic policy. Sad too.

    Wrong as usual.

    Not only would No Deal to great damage to the economy and potentially breakup the Union, no alternative Tory leader polls better than May and most poll worse
    What rubbish. You keep forecasting economic Armageddon but you did that before the referendum too. That forecast didn’t turn out too well and as you can’t make a credible case for this forecast, there is no reason for it to be taken any more seriously. The deal does nothing for us and everything to do with future trade has still to be negotiated if May does get her deal through so the deal itself is economically worthless.

    To be only level pegging with a Labour Party wracked by misogyny and antisemitism; that is all adrift on Brexit; that has no credible domestic policy and that has business genuinely worried is a national disgrace. Polls have a very flawed track record recently so your faith in them is touching but naive. A worthwhile Tory leader would be well ahead.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,547
    edited December 2018

    As a reminder for those outraged that the UK will require EU citizens to register after Brexit.

    Its something many (if not most) EU countries have required of UK citizens since 1973

    During the first 3 months of your stay in your new country, as EU national, you cannot be required to apply for a residence document confirming your right to live there - although in some countries you may have to report your presence upon arrival.

    After 3 months in your new country, you may be required to register your residence with the relevant authority (often the town hall or local police station), and to be issued with a registration certificate.

    You will need a valid identity card or passport and:

    Employees / Postings abroad
    Certificate of employment or confirmation of recruitment from your employer

    Self-employed
    Proof of your status as self-employed

    Pensioners
    Proof of comprehensive health insurance
    Proof you can support yourself without needing income support: resources may come from any source

    Students
    Proof of enrolment at an approved educational establishment
    Proof of comprehensive health insurance
    Declaration that you have sufficient resources to support yourself without needing income support: resources may come from any source


    https://europa.eu/youreurope/citizens/residence/documents-formalities/registering-residence/index_en.htm

    I must have missed the howls of outrage....

    Not outrageous. Just symptomatic of the crapness of Brexit. It gives us the power to impose previously unnecessary hassle and expense on our adopted citizens so, by God, are we going to use that power. Our Brexit ambition goes no further than this.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    The whole thing is an extortion racket, and the home office using implicit threats of deportation for noncompliance is shameful.

    I strongly urge any EU citizen to join the boycott of this nasty little bureaufascist scheme.

    Why is it an extortion racket when its in line with EU guidelines?

    Your registration certificate should be issued immediately and cost no more than the price nationals pay for identity cards.

    https://europa.eu/youreurope/citizens/residence/documents-formalities/registering-residence/index_en.htm

    We don’t have ID cards, do we?
    We have passports.

    Those are more expensive.

    All EU member states have passports.


    And many of them fine you for not carrying ID.....and proof of residence....

    So what?
    Our process is easier and less punitive than that used in many EU countries.
    So what?
  • FF43 said:

    Not

    As a reminder for those outraged that the UK will require EU citizens to register after Brexit.

    Its something many (if not most) EU countries have required of UK citizens since 1973

    During the first 3 months of your stay in your new country, as EU national, you cannot be required to apply for a residence document confirming your right to live there - although in some countries you may have to report your presence upon arrival.

    After 3 months in your new country, you may be required to register your residence with the relevant authority (often the town hall or local police station), and to be issued with a registration certificate.

    You will need a valid identity card or passport and:

    Employees / Postings abroad
    Certificate of employment or confirmation of recruitment from your employer

    Self-employed
    Proof of your status as self-employed

    Pensioners
    Proof of comprehensive health insurance
    Proof you can support yourself without needing income support: resources may come from any source

    Students
    Proof of enrolment at an approved educational establishment
    Proof of comprehensive health insurance
    Declaration that you have sufficient resources to support yourself without needing income support: resources may come from any source


    https://europa.eu/youreurope/citizens/residence/documents-formalities/registering-residence/index_en.htm

    I must have missed the howls of outrage....

    It gives us the power to impose previously unnecessary hassle and expense on our adopted citizens
    It doesn't.

    All it means is we will be imposing "unnecessary hassle and expense" (sic) that EU countries were already imposing on UK (and other non native) citizens before Brexit
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    As a reminder for those outraged that the UK will require EU citizens to register after Brexit.

    Its something many (if not most) EU countries have required of UK citizens since 1973

    During the first 3 months of your stay in your new country, as EU national, you cannot be required to apply for a residence document confirming your right to live there - although in some countries you may have to report your presence upon arrival.

    After 3 months in your new country, you may be required to register your residence with the relevant authority (often the town hall or local police station), and to be issued with a registration certificate.

    You will need a valid identity card or passport and:

    Employees / Postings abroad
    Certificate of employment or confirmation of recruitment from your employer

    Self-employed
    Proof of your status as self-employed

    Pensioners
    Proof of comprehensive health insurance
    Proof you can support yourself without needing income support: resources may come from any source

    Students
    Proof of enrolment at an approved educational establishment
    Proof of comprehensive health insurance
    Declaration that you have sufficient resources to support yourself without needing income support: resources may come from any source


    https://europa.eu/youreurope/citizens/residence/documents-formalities/registering-residence/index_en.htm

    I must have missed the howls of outrage....

    Registering residence is not the same as applying for it.

    From the EU's notes it sounds as though registration is required to confirm your right to live there. How is the Home Office's scheme any different?

    The Home Office has chosen to say people must apply.

    But in actuality it's exactly the same as what is done in other EU countries.
    Don't let facts get in the way of hysteria.

    Especially of many who have never lived abroad....
    I like our country to be better than France.

    A LOT better than France.
    Do you mind sharing which EU countries you've registered in? Most of the critics are rather coy....
    Germany.
    How was the process?
    Tedious, bureaucratic, unnecessary. designed to raise revenue and ensure that there was a register of Turks.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,082

    In my circles, admitting to Leave is akin to admitting to a mental and moral lapse, like a bout of petty theft.

    The correct response is no longer anger, but pity, as one pities those on the receipt of phishing scams.

    Everyone is bored of Brexit of course, but one supposes World War II was rather boring on occasion. I don’t really detect any softening in attitudes if you really probe for an opinion.

    At least world war two sorted out the status of Danzig. I don't think Brexit will settle anything.
    As I recall, WW2 didn't work out quite how its exponents proposed, including the status of Danzig.
  • The whole thing is an extortion racket, and the home office using implicit threats of deportation for noncompliance is shameful.

    I strongly urge any EU citizen to join the boycott of this nasty little bureaufascist scheme.

    Why is it an extortion racket when its in line with EU guidelines?

    Your registration certificate should be issued immediately and cost no more than the price nationals pay for identity cards.

    https://europa.eu/youreurope/citizens/residence/documents-formalities/registering-residence/index_en.htm

    We don’t have ID cards, do we?
    We have passports.

    Those are more expensive.

    All EU member states have passports.


    And many of them fine you for not carrying ID.....and proof of residence....

    So what?
    Our process is easier and less punitive than that used in many EU countries.
    So what?
    So why only complaints about the process in the UK and not in other EU countries?

    I have a hypothesis.

    Many of the complainants have neither lived, worked nor registered in the EU before.

    By comparison, the UK is strikingly un-bureaucratic.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    RobD said:

    As a reminder for those outraged that the UK will require EU citizens to register after Brexit.

    Its something many (if not most) EU countries have required of UK citizens since 1973

    During the first 3 months of your stay in your new country, as EU national, you cannot be required to apply for a residence document confirming your right to live there - although in some countries you may have to report your presence upon arrival.

    After 3 months in your new country, you may be required to register your residence with the relevant authority (often the town hall or local police station), and to be issued with a registration certificate.

    You will need a valid identity card or passport and:

    Employees / Postings abroad
    Certificate of employment or confirmation of recruitment from your employer

    Self-employed
    Proof of your status as self-employed

    Pensioners
    Proof of comprehensive health insurance
    Proof you can support yourself without needing income support: resources may come from any source

    Students
    Proof of enrolment at an approved educational establishment
    Proof of comprehensive health insurance
    Declaration that you have sufficient resources to support yourself without needing income support: resources may come from any source


    https://europa.eu/youreurope/citizens/residence/documents-formalities/registering-residence/index_en.htm

    I must have missed the howls of outrage....

    Registering residence is not the same as applying for it.

    From the EU's notes it sounds as though registration is required to confirm your right to live there. How is the Home Office's scheme any different?

    The Home Office has chosen to say people must apply.

    I presume because the UK has added 'Checks for criminality'.

    Should we not have done?

    Nope, I think we shouldn’t have done anything to change the current status of EU citizens in the UK. I think we should have sorted that out the day after the referendum unilaterally and left absolutely no room for doubt. That would have been a powerful statement of goodwill.

    if theres one thing negotiations have shown us its that there is no goodwill

    This is business
    If Brexit was a business it would be liquidation already. It promises only losses, and has a dwindling number of subscribers.
    And the Advertising Standards Authority would want a word too.
  • RobD said:

    As a reminder for those outraged that the UK will require EU citizens to register after Brexit.

    Its something many (if not most) EU countries have required of UK citizens since 1973

    During the first 3 months of your stay in your new country, as EU national, you cannot be required to apply for a residence document confirming your right to live there - although in some countries you may have to report your presence upon arrival.

    After 3 months in your new country, you may be required to register your residence with the relevant authority (often the town hall or local police station), and to be issued with a registration certificate.

    You will need a valid identity card or passport and:

    Employees / Postings abroad
    Certificate of employment or confirmation of recruitment from your employer

    Self-employed
    Proof of your status as self-employed

    Pensioners
    Proof of comprehensive health insurance
    Proof you can support yourself without needing income support: resources may come from any source

    Students
    Proof of enrolment at an approved educational establishment
    Proof of comprehensive health insurance
    Declaration that you have sufficient resources to support yourself without needing income support: resources may come from any source


    https://europa.eu/youreurope/citizens/residence/documents-formalities/registering-residence/index_en.htm

    I must have missed the howls of outrage....

    Registering residence is not the same as applying for it.

    From the EU's notes it sounds as though registration is required to confirm your right to live there. How is the Home Office's scheme any different?

    The Home Office has chosen to say people must apply.

    I presume because the UK has added 'Checks for criminality'.

    Should we not have done?

    Nope, I think we shouldn’t have done anything to change the current status of EU citizens in the UK. I think we should have sorted that out the day after the referendum unilaterally and left absolutely no room for doubt. That would have been a powerful statement of goodwill.

    if theres one thing negotiations have shown us its that there is no goodwill

    This is business
    If Brexit was a business.....
    Yes. But it isn't....

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    The whole thing is an extortion racket, and the home office using implicit threats of deportation for noncompliance is shameful.

    I strongly urge any EU citizen to join the boycott of this nasty little bureaufascist scheme.

    Why is it an extortion racket when its in line with EU guidelines?

    Your registration certificate should be issued immediately and cost no more than the price nationals pay for identity cards.

    https://europa.eu/youreurope/citizens/residence/documents-formalities/registering-residence/index_en.htm

    We don’t have ID cards, do we?
    We have passports.

    Those are more expensive.

    All EU member states have passports.


    And many of them fine you for not carrying ID.....and proof of residence....

    So what?
    Our process is easier and less punitive than that used in many EU countries.
    So what?
    I should that is very relevant if people are trying to say we are performing, for example, Herodian acts of evil, as David Lammy did.
  • matt said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    As a reminder for those outraged that the UK will require EU citizens to register after Brexit.

    mployees / Postings abroad
    Certificate of employment or confirmation of recruitment from your employer

    Self-employed
    Proof of your status as self-employed

    Pensioners
    Proof of comprehensive health insurance
    Proof you can support yourself without needing income support: resources may come from any source

    Students
    Proof of enrolment at an approved educational establishment
    Proof of comprehensive health insurance
    Declaration that you have sufficient resources to support yourself without needing income support: resources may come from any source

    https://europa.eu/youreurope/citizens/residence/documents-formalities/registering-residence/index_en.htm

    I must have missed the howls of outrage....

    Registering residence is not the same as applying for it.

    From the EU's notes it sounds as though registration is required to confirm your right to live there. How is the Home Office's scheme any different?

    The Home Office has chosen to say people must apply.

    But in actuality it's exactly the same as what is done in other EU countries.
    Don't let facts get in the way of hysteria.

    Especially of many who have never lived abroad....
    I like our country to be better than France.

    A LOT better than France.
    Do you mind sharing which EU countries you've registered in? Most of the critics are rather coy....
    Germany.
    How was the process?
    Tedious, bureaucratic, unnecessary. designed to raise revenue and ensure that there was a register of Turks.
    What struck me about my two times registering in Brussels was i) the tedious queuing (I guess not different to anywhere else) and ii) the Orwellian efficiency - they knew my previous address and whether I'd paid my utility bills....
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,547

    On topic, I'm closer to David's prediction than Alastair's, though I agree it's all up in the air. One point that both articles may overestimate is the intensity of Remainer passion in Labour (and hence the risk to Corbyn). I'm a passionate Remainer myself - I'd support a 2nd referendum, or with some queasiness having MPs simply vote to scrap the project a la Matthew Parris.

    But I've been socially together with a lot of Labour people (ex-colleagues of various kinds and some former constituents) over Xmas. All of them without exception said they were Remainers. Most of them are Corbynsceptics (my social circle is more centrist than I am). Some of them are now constituents of the rump of pro-Leave Labour MPs. But none of them felt particularly rebellious - they feel sad about the probable outcome, hope that the leadership will try for a referendum in the end, but one way or another felt Leave is probably going to happen. For all of them, getting the Tories out is then the priority, and interest in leadership challenges, deselections, etc. was zero, except for any Labour MP who voted with the Tories, who would be deselected even if Momentum didn't utter a squeak.

    A lot of people (to some extent including me) think this ultra-partisan approach is a pity - the issue is so important that we ought to be giving it priority. But this is a betting site and it's perhaps useful to have factual impressions. The Guardian is IMO misleading on this - they enthusiastically talk up every activist, however obscure, who takes a strong line, but the big hitters outside the longstanding anti-Corbyn ranks have been fairly quiet.

    My friends are activists, and not a guide to the wider public. Their attitude makes it unlikely that Corbyn will face a serious new challenge, but not necessarily that Labour voters in general feel similarly inclined. That said, I've not been much on the doorstep recently so have no real evidence, but my impression is that the EU is still a secondary issue for most. It'd be nice to be able to work in France without bureaucracy and a shame if trade gets disrupted. But things like not getting into personal debt, seeing some coppers on the street and having granny not wait two years for an operation loom much larger.

    I would largely go along with this, except I think there probably will be a crisis, which may mean a period of No Deal. In that case I think any grudging consensus based on the referendum result will break down. Secondly there seems to be a majority of people who think Brexit is bad - essentially all Remainers explicitly and a chunk of Leavers implicitly because the deal is bad.

    It does come down to Leavers in the end. If they almost all are content with their Leave vote, it will probably go through without much problem.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,884
    Roger said:

    Sean_F said:

    It needs to be repeated, Brexit has made too many people on here absolutely Batshit Crazy. You find offence and malice in every post, and resort to name calling and self righteous outrage at every opportunity and this happens on both sides. A lot of the time the site isn't worth reading much past the header, which is a damn shame as it has been the first place I look at most mornings for many years.
    Luckily, I don't believe the country is as riven as this place, because if it is we're even more fucked than I thought we were!

    My wife, my father, my brother, my sister-in law all voted Remain, and about a third of my friends voted Remain, but we are still on good terms. Anecdote only, but I expect that's fairly common.

    Social media magnifies every division, and destroys nuance. Imagine if we'd had social media, in the Seventies or the Miners' Strike. One would have thought we were on the point of civil war.
    Seriously amazed that two thirds of your friends voted Leave. To my knowledge of friends relatives and work colleagues I'm pretty sure none have voted Leave.
    I think the only leave voter I actually know was the bloke who cuts my grass and I fired him when I found out.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,776
    Registration, providing evidence of I/D and residence, vetting has become so ubiquitous over the past 20 years, that this will likely be greeted with a shrug, rather than riots.

    We've moved very far away from AJP Taylor's description of pre WWI interaction between the State and the individual.
  • Dura_Ace said:

    Roger said:

    Sean_F said:

    It needs to be repeated, Brexit has made too many people on here absolutely Batshit Crazy. You find offence and malice in every post, and resort to name calling and self righteous outrage at every opportunity and this happens on both sides. A lot of the time the site isn't worth reading much past the header, which is a damn shame as it has been the first place I look at most mornings for many years.
    Luckily, I don't believe the country is as riven as this place, because if it is we're even more fucked than I thought we were!

    My wife, my father, my brother, my sister-in law all voted Remain, and about a third of my friends voted Remain, but we are still on good terms. Anecdote only, but I expect that's fairly common.

    Social media magnifies every division, and destroys nuance. Imagine if we'd had social media, in the Seventies or the Miners' Strike. One would have thought we were on the point of civil war.
    Seriously amazed that two thirds of your friends voted Leave. To my knowledge of friends relatives and work colleagues I'm pretty sure none have voted Leave.
    I think the only leave voter I actually know was the bloke who cuts my grass and I fired him when I found out.
    That's one way of making Brexit add to unemployment.....
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,776
    Dura_Ace said:

    Roger said:

    Sean_F said:

    It needs to be repeated, Brexit has made too many people on here absolutely Batshit Crazy. You find offence and malice in every post, and resort to name calling and self righteous outrage at every opportunity and this happens on both sides. A lot of the time the site isn't worth reading much past the header, which is a damn shame as it has been the first place I look at most mornings for many years.
    Luckily, I don't believe the country is as riven as this place, because if it is we're even more fucked than I thought we were!

    My wife, my father, my brother, my sister-in law all voted Remain, and about a third of my friends voted Remain, but we are still on good terms. Anecdote only, but I expect that's fairly common.

    Social media magnifies every division, and destroys nuance. Imagine if we'd had social media, in the Seventies or the Miners' Strike. One would have thought we were on the point of civil war.
    Seriously amazed that two thirds of your friends voted Leave. To my knowledge of friends relatives and work colleagues I'm pretty sure none have voted Leave.
    I think the only leave voter I actually know was the bloke who cuts my grass and I fired him when I found out.
    Needless to say, you have few friends.
  • Dura_Ace said:

    Roger said:

    Sean_F said:

    It needs to be repeated, Brexit has made too many people on here absolutely Batshit Crazy. You find offence and malice in every post, and resort to name calling and self righteous outrage at every opportunity and this happens on both sides. A lot of the time the site isn't worth reading much past the header, which is a damn shame as it has been the first place I look at most mornings for many years.
    Luckily, I don't believe the country is as riven as this place, because if it is we're even more fucked than I thought we were!

    My wife, my father, my brother, my sister-in law all voted Remain, and about a third of my friends voted Remain, but we are still on good terms. Anecdote only, but I expect that's fairly common.

    Social media magnifies every division, and destroys nuance. Imagine if we'd had social media, in the Seventies or the Miners' Strike. One would have thought we were on the point of civil war.
    Seriously amazed that two thirds of your friends voted Leave. To my knowledge of friends relatives and work colleagues I'm pretty sure none have voted Leave.
    I think the only leave voter I actually know was the bloke who cuts my grass and I fired him when I found out.
    No wonder Remain lost.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    RobD said:

    As a reminder for those outraged that the UK will require EU citizens to register after Brexit.

    Its something many (if not most) EU countries have required of UK citizens since 1973

    During the first 3 months of your stay in your new country, as EU national, you cannot be required to apply for a residence document confirming your right to live there - although in some countries you may have to report your presence upon arrival.

    After 3 months in your new country, you may be required to register your residence with the relevant authority (often the town hall or local police station), and to be issued with a registration certificate.

    You will need a valid identity card or passport and:

    Employees / Postings abroad
    Certificate of employment or confirmation of recruitment from your employer

    Self-employed
    Proof of your status as self-employed

    Pensioners
    Proof of comprehensive health insurance
    Proof you can support yourself without needing income support: resources may come from any source

    Students
    Proof of enrolment at an approved educational establishment
    Proof of comprehensive health insurance
    Declaration that you have sufficient resources to support yourself without needing income support: resources may come from any source


    https://europa.eu/youreurope/citizens/residence/documents-formalities/registering-residence/index_en.htm

    I must have missed the howls of outrage....

    Registering residence is not the same as applying for it.

    From the EU's notes it sounds as though registration is required to confirm your right to live there. How is the Home Office's scheme any different?
    Not only that:

    In many countries, you will need to carry your registration certificate and national identity card or passport at all times. If you leave them at home, you may be fined.....
    In Spain you have to carry your residence card and produce it on demand. Just as the locals have to have their IDs. The outrage bus today is hilarious and from several who really ought to know better although none as yet have matched BevC's one yesterday about 'Yellow stars'.
  • Dura_Ace said:

    Roger said:

    Sean_F said:

    It needs to be repeated, Brexit has made too many people on here absolutely Batshit Crazy. You find offence and malice in every post, and resort to name calling and self righteous outrage at every opportunity and this happens on both sides. A lot of the time the site isn't worth reading much past the header, which is a damn shame as it has been the first place I look at most mornings for many years.
    Luckily, I don't believe the country is as riven as this place, because if it is we're even more fucked than I thought we were!

    My wife, my father, my brother, my sister-in law all voted Remain, and about a third of my friends voted Remain, but we are still on good terms. Anecdote only, but I expect that's fairly common.

    Social media magnifies every division, and destroys nuance. Imagine if we'd had social media, in the Seventies or the Miners' Strike. One would have thought we were on the point of civil war.
    Seriously amazed that two thirds of your friends voted Leave. To my knowledge of friends relatives and work colleagues I'm pretty sure none have voted Leave.
    I think the only leave voter I actually know was the bloke who cuts my grass and I fired him when I found out.
    It’s still far, far too common to hear in Remainer circles tropes about Leavers being misled and bamboozled into their vote, or perhaps bewitched by internet-wizards and Russian enchanters. And click on #FBPE and you’ll quickly find someone impugning the motives of Leave voters. It pains me that even some of the people I admire most on this side of the debate have signed up to the claim that voting Leave was often an act of racism. There is no convincing evidence to support that hunch.

    Another Remain narrative is truly awful: ‘relax, we just need to wait because Leavers are all OAPs who are slowly dying off.’ This, I think, is about as nasty and divisive as any of the anti-immigration scare stories of the Leave campaign. It’s also based on a misreading of the evidence (Leave won among all voters over 45, and possibly the 35-45 bracket too). And more importantly, it exposes the continued failure of Remain campaigners to treat the people who disagree with them with respect, to respect and attempt to understand their motives and answer their concerns.

    If your best hope of winning in politics is to pray for the death of those who aren’t persuaded by your arguments, neither you nor your arguments are any good.


    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/12/2018-the-year-that-exposed-the-brexit-fantasies-on-all-sides/
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006
    Dura_Ace said:

    Roger said:

    Sean_F said:

    It needs to be repeated, Brexit has made too many people on here absolutely Batshit Crazy. You find offence and malice in every post, and resort to name calling and self righteous outrage at every opportunity and this happens on both sides. A lot of the time the site isn't worth reading much past the header, which is a damn shame as it has been the first place I look at most mornings for many years.
    Luckily, I don't believe the country is as riven as this place, because if it is we're even more fucked than I thought we were!

    My wife, my father, my brother, my sister-in law all voted Remain, and about a third of my friends voted Remain, but we are still on good terms. Anecdote only, but I expect that's fairly common.

    Social media magnifies every division, and destroys nuance. Imagine if we'd had social media, in the Seventies or the Miners' Strike. One would have thought we were on the point of civil war.
    Seriously amazed that two thirds of your friends voted Leave. To my knowledge of friends relatives and work colleagues I'm pretty sure none have voted Leave.
    I think the only leave voter I actually know was the bloke who cuts my grass and I fired him when I found out.
    And probably hired a very grateful and enthusiastic eastern european who did it a bit cheaper. These Leavers, tut tut.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,094
    This thread is now OLD
  • kle4 said:

    The whole thing is an extortion racket, and the home office using implicit threats of deportation for noncompliance is shameful.

    I strongly urge any EU citizen to join the boycott of this nasty little bureaufascist scheme.

    Why is it an extortion racket when its in line with EU guidelines?

    Your registration certificate should be issued immediately and cost no more than the price nationals pay for identity cards.

    https://europa.eu/youreurope/citizens/residence/documents-formalities/registering-residence/index_en.htm

    We don’t have ID cards, do we?
    We have passports.

    Those are more expensive.

    All EU member states have passports.


    And many of them fine you for not carrying ID.....and proof of residence....

    So what?
    Our process is easier and less punitive than that used in many EU countries.
    So what?
    I should that is very relevant if people are trying to say we are performing, for example, Herodian acts of evil, as David Lammy did.
    Are the bureaucrats going to tour the nursing homes looking for senile unauthorised overstayers to drag them to Yarl’s Wood? Because if they aren’t, why are they frightening people who have been here for many years? And if they are (which can’t be ruled out following the Windrush experience), what does that say about Britain as a country?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719

    HYUFD said:

    Hope 2 is wrong. Apart from that, seems a sensible enough set of predictions. If 2 is wrong, May is sure to go. That would be fantastic news for the Tories.

    Interesting that no one is making any predictions on domestic policy. Sad too.

    Wrong as usual.

    Not only would No Deal to great damage to the economy and potentially breakup the Union, no alternative Tory leader polls better than May and most poll worse
    What rubbish. You keep forecasting economic Armageddon but you did that before the referendum too. That forecast didn’t turn out too well and as you can’t make a credible case for this forecast, there is no reason for it to be taken any more seriously. The deal does nothing for us and everything to do with future trade has still to be negotiated if May does get her deal through so the deal itself is economically worthless.

    To be only level pegging with a Labour Party wracked by misogyny and antisemitism; that is all adrift on Brexit; that has no credible domestic policy and that has business genuinely worried is a national disgrace. Polls have a very flawed track record recently so your faith in them is touching but naive. A worthwhile Tory leader would be well ahead.
    Since the referendum we have still been in the EU, the Single Market and Customs Union. Leave with No Deal and without a transition period or trade agreement with our largest market on the EU and we are headed for a deep recession next year.

    It is rare for any party to be both in power for almost 9 years and be level pegging, let alone ahead. If fanatics like you get their way of No Deal of course there will be be an open door for PM Corbyn
  • The whole thing is an extortion racket, and the home office using implicit threats of deportation for noncompliance is shameful.

    I strongly urge any EU citizen to join the boycott of this nasty little bureaufascist scheme.

    Why is it an extortion racket when its in line with EU guidelines?

    Your registration certificate should be issued immediately and cost no more than the price nationals pay for identity cards.

    https://europa.eu/youreurope/citizens/residence/documents-formalities/registering-residence/index_en.htm

    We don’t have ID cards, do we?
    We have passports.

    Those are more expensive.

    All EU member states have passports.


    And many of them fine you for not carrying ID.....and proof of residence....

    So what?
    Our process is easier and less punitive than that used in many EU countries.
    So what?
    So why only complaints about the process in the UK and not in other EU countries?

    I have a hypothesis.

    Many of the complainants have neither lived, worked nor registered in the EU before.

    By comparison, the UK is strikingly un-bureaucratic.

    I lived in Spain for five years. I know all about bureaucracy, believe me.

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,265
    RobD said:

    From the small print:

    image

    BOYCOTT NOW.

    They probably need to share the information with the Police to do a records check.
    And the private sector organisations?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,237

    RobD said:

    As a reminder for those outraged that the UK will require EU citizens to register after Brexit.

    Its something many (if not most) EU countries have required of UK citizens since 1973

    During the first 3 months of your stay in your new country, as EU national, you cannot be required to apply for a residence document confirming your right to live there - although in some countries you may have to report your presence upon arrival.

    After 3 months in your new country, you may be required to register your residence with the relevant authority (often the town hall or local police station), and to be issued with a registration certificate.

    You will need a valid identity card or passport and:

    Employees / Postings abroad
    Certificate of employment or confirmation of recruitment from your employer

    Self-employed
    Proof of your status as self-employed

    Pensioners
    Proof of comprehensive health insurance
    Proof you can support yourself without needing income support: resources may come from any source

    Students
    Proof of enrolment at an approved educational establishment
    Proof of comprehensive health insurance
    Declaration that you have sufficient resources to support yourself without needing income support: resources may come from any source


    https://europa.eu/youreurope/citizens/residence/documents-formalities/registering-residence/index_en.htm

    I must have missed the howls of outrage....

    Registering residence is not the same as applying for it.

    From the EU's notes it sounds as though registration is required to confirm your right to live there. How is the Home Office's scheme any different?

    The Home Office has chosen to say people must apply.

    I presume because the UK has added 'Checks for criminality'.

    Should we not have done?

    Nope, I think we shouldn’t have done anything to change the current status of EU citizens in the UK. I think we should have sorted that out the day after the referendum unilaterally and left absolutely no room for doubt. That would have been a powerful statement of goodwill.

    if theres one thing negotiations have shown us its that there is no goodwill

    This is business
    It's not often I agree with you, but I think you are right.
This discussion has been closed.