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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Matters of confidence. What to expect if the government loses

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited December 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Matters of confidence. What to expect if the government loses a vote of no confidence

Care to make it interesting? As if politics wasn’t already volatile enough, the government faces the persistent threat of a vote of no confidence. Jeremy Corbyn made a complete ass of himself and several of his most senior colleagues before the Christmas break with an on-off-on-again-off-again vote of no confidence, but he will have other opportunities.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 23,741
    edited December 2018
    First.

    Thanks, Alastair.

    The problem with a train wreck is that people often get hurt.
  • Fascinating article - thank you.

    I'm not sure how many MPs want a GE - with things so febrile if I was a Labour MP in a Leave seat* or a Tory MP in a Remain one I'd want to put it off as long as possible. Unemployed now, or in 2022?

    *Or even a Remain seat, depending how much more of Magic Grandpa's constructive ambiguity wears off.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 18,561
    edited December 2018
    Thanks Alastair.

    But 'chaos' would have been shorter. :smile:
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,125
    edited December 2018
    How certain are we that Mrs May is a "duty over all" kinda person?

    Is there a viable possibility that she'd pull a Dave and flounce out? Lacks a spouse with family money, but he'll have been well rewarded in the city and she's got a good pension.

    Temptation to walk away citing health much be a factor.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,125
    Also, thanks for the article Alastair, my favourite PB header writer. I sometimes disagree with your conclusions, but I always enjoy reading your work.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,124
    "For example, what would the DUP like best? My guess is that they would be very happy to have another general election to see the clock tick down on a no-deal Brexit and will vote accordingly"

    But that General Election is also likely to unravel the unique arithmetic that gives the DUP their leverage. What they would like best is for a new Tory leader who will be alligned better with their own views on Brexit, whilst continuing to send pork by the shipload to NI. So no deal Brexit, May stepping down and a Leaver taking over will be just fine and dandy with the DUP.
  • daodaodaodao Posts: 821
    A successful VoNC is the only way to avoid a hard "no deal" Brexit if May's deal fails to be passed, but could lead to one of many different outcomes, as outlined in the thread header. The later it is held, the more difficult it will be to create an alternative government in time to suspend/revoke A50, especially if it leads to a GE, as the clock is ticking.

    Hopefully, May will procrastinate as long as possible, because IMO it is important that the UK formally leaves the EU at 2300 on 29/3/19.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 11,804
    daodao said:

    A successful VoNC is the only way to avoid a hard "no deal" Brexit if May's deal fails to be passed, but could lead to one of many different outcomes, as outlined in the thread header. The later it is held, the more difficult it will be to create an alternative government in time to suspend/revoke A50, especially if it leads to a GE, as the clock is ticking.

    Hopefully, May will procrastinate as long as possible, because IMO it is important that the UK formally leaves the EU at 2300 on 29/3/19.

    Brinkmanship is utterly reckless.
  • Good morning, everyone.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,124
    Jonathan said:

    daodao said:

    A successful VoNC is the only way to avoid a hard "no deal" Brexit if May's deal fails to be passed, but could lead to one of many different outcomes, as outlined in the thread header. The later it is held, the more difficult it will be to create an alternative government in time to suspend/revoke A50, especially if it leads to a GE, as the clock is ticking.

    Hopefully, May will procrastinate as long as possible, because IMO it is important that the UK formally leaves the EU at 2300 on 29/3/19.

    Brinkmanship is utterly reckless.
    However, May's Shit Deal or No Deal is the only game in town..... Brexit, either way. Up to the Remainers to decide which one they want. Until they decide, we will have brinksmanship.

    The game could end tomorrow. Their call....
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 11,804

    Jonathan said:

    daodao said:

    A successful VoNC is the only way to avoid a hard "no deal" Brexit if May's deal fails to be passed, but could lead to one of many different outcomes, as outlined in the thread header. The later it is held, the more difficult it will be to create an alternative government in time to suspend/revoke A50, especially if it leads to a GE, as the clock is ticking.

    Hopefully, May will procrastinate as long as possible, because IMO it is important that the UK formally leaves the EU at 2300 on 29/3/19.

    Brinkmanship is utterly reckless.
    However, May's Shit Deal or No Deal is the only game in town..... Brexit, either way. Up to the Remainers to decide which one they want. Until they decide, we will have brinksmanship.

    The game could end tomorrow. Their call....
    Nope. May, as PM, is responsible for building a majority in Parliament. She has chosen holding the nation to ransom as her approach, running down the clock until her flawed deal is the only option. It is dangerous, contemptible and deserves to fail. Any damage caused will be owned by her and her alone.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 14,942

    "For example, what would the DUP like best? My guess is that they would be very happy to have another general election to see the clock tick down on a no-deal Brexit and will vote accordingly"

    But that General Election is also likely to unravel the unique arithmetic that gives the DUP their leverage. What they would like best is for a new Tory leader who will be alligned better with their own views on Brexit, whilst continuing to send pork by the shipload to NI. So no deal Brexit, May stepping down and a Leaver taking over will be just fine and dandy with the DUP.

    What would be the chances of a GE sending SDLP members from NI, who would take part? Or members from some new SF lite participatory nationalist grouping.That in itself would change the arithmetic.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 18,347
    edited December 2018
    We will just have to hope that MPs are suddenly more effective when faced with a real deadline. It's not impossible, even with today's miserable lot.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,124
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    daodao said:

    A successful VoNC is the only way to avoid a hard "no deal" Brexit if May's deal fails to be passed, but could lead to one of many different outcomes, as outlined in the thread header. The later it is held, the more difficult it will be to create an alternative government in time to suspend/revoke A50, especially if it leads to a GE, as the clock is ticking.

    Hopefully, May will procrastinate as long as possible, because IMO it is important that the UK formally leaves the EU at 2300 on 29/3/19.

    Brinkmanship is utterly reckless.
    However, May's Shit Deal or No Deal is the only game in town..... Brexit, either way. Up to the Remainers to decide which one they want. Until they decide, we will have brinksmanship.

    The game could end tomorrow. Their call....
    Nope. May, as PM, is responsible for building a majority in Parliament. She has chosen holding the nation to ransom as her approach, running down the clock until her flawed deal is the only option. It is dangerous, contemptible and deserves to fail. Any damage caused will be owned by her and her alone.
    Her approach is that faced with No Deal, they will back her deal as we approach 29th March. Who will blink - PM or MPs?

    She would no doubt argue that flights of fancy over other options that don't deliver Brexit are "dangerous, contemptible and deserve to fail"......
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,566
    Jonathan said:

    daodao said:

    A successful VoNC is the only way to avoid a hard "no deal" Brexit if May's deal fails to be passed, but could lead to one of many different outcomes, as outlined in the thread header. The later it is held, the more difficult it will be to create an alternative government in time to suspend/revoke A50, especially if it leads to a GE, as the clock is ticking.

    Hopefully, May will procrastinate as long as possible, because IMO it is important that the UK formally leaves the EU at 2300 on 29/3/19.

    Brinkmanship is utterly reckless.
    You know the PB rules, no hesitation, deviation and certainly no repetition..
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 18,347
    edited December 2018

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    daodao said:

    A successful VoNC is the only way to avoid a hard "no deal" Brexit if May's deal fails to be passed, but could lead to one of many different outcomes, as outlined in the thread header. The later it is held, the more difficult it will be to create an alternative government in time to suspend/revoke A50, especially if it leads to a GE, as the clock is ticking.

    Hopefully, May will procrastinate as long as possible, because IMO it is important that the UK formally leaves the EU at 2300 on 29/3/19.

    Brinkmanship is utterly reckless.
    However, May's Shit Deal or No Deal is the only game in town..... Brexit, either way. Up to the Remainers to decide which one they want. Until they decide, we will have brinksmanship.

    The game could end tomorrow. Their call....
    Nope. May, as PM, is responsible for building a majority in Parliament. She has chosen holding the nation to ransom as her approach, running down the clock until her flawed deal is the only option. It is dangerous, contemptible and deserves to fail. Any damage caused will be owned by her and her alone.
    Her approach is that faced with No Deal, they will back her deal as we approach 29th March. Who will blink - PM or MPs?

    She would no doubt argue that flights of fancy over other options that don't deliver Brexit are "dangerous, contemptible and deserve to fail"......
    The PM is risking more, as the fortunes of the two things she holds most dear (Mr M aside) rest upon the outcome. The advantage she has is of being able to move more quickly - I am quite sure the Revocation Bill is already drafted.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,124
    IanB2 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    daodao said:

    A successful VoNC is the only way to avoid a hard "no deal" Brexit if May's deal fails to be passed, but could lead to one of many different outcomes, as outlined in the thread header. The later it is held, the more difficult it will be to create an alternative government in time to suspend/revoke A50, especially if it leads to a GE, as the clock is ticking.

    Hopefully, May will procrastinate as long as possible, because IMO it is important that the UK formally leaves the EU at 2300 on 29/3/19.

    Brinkmanship is utterly reckless.
    However, May's Shit Deal or No Deal is the only game in town..... Brexit, either way. Up to the Remainers to decide which one they want. Until they decide, we will have brinksmanship.

    The game could end tomorrow. Their call....
    Nope. May, as PM, is responsible for building a majority in Parliament. She has chosen holding the nation to ransom as her approach, running down the clock until her flawed deal is the only option. It is dangerous, contemptible and deserves to fail. Any damage caused will be owned by her and her alone.
    Her approach is that faced with No Deal, they will back her deal as we approach 29th March. Who will blink - PM or MPs?

    She would no doubt argue that flights of fancy over other options that don't deliver Brexit are "dangerous, contemptible and deserve to fail"......
    The PM is risking more, as the fortunes of the two things she holds most dear (leaving Mr M on the side) rest upon the outcome. The advantage she has is of being able to move more quickly - I am quite sure the Revocation Bill is already drafted.
    Dream on. You want other options pursued? Then the Cabinet will have to remove her.... cuz she ain't budging.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 14,942
    IanB2 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    daodao said:

    A successful VoNC is the only way to avoid a hard "no deal" Brexit if May's deal fails to be passed, but could lead to one of many different outcomes, as outlined in the thread header. The later it is held, the more difficult it will be to create an alternative government in time to suspend/revoke A50, especially if it leads to a GE, as the clock is ticking.

    Hopefully, May will procrastinate as long as possible, because IMO it is important that the UK formally leaves the EU at 2300 on 29/3/19.

    Brinkmanship is utterly reckless.
    However, May's Shit Deal or No Deal is the only game in town..... Brexit, either way. Up to the Remainers to decide which one they want. Until they decide, we will have brinksmanship.

    The game could end tomorrow. Their call....
    Nope. May, as PM, is responsible for building a majority in Parliament. She has chosen holding the nation to ransom as her approach, running down the clock until her flawed deal is the only option. It is dangerous, contemptible and deserves to fail. Any damage caused will be owned by her and her alone.
    Her approach is that faced with No Deal, they will back her deal as we approach 29th March. Who will blink - PM or MPs?

    She would no doubt argue that flights of fancy over other options that don't deliver Brexit are "dangerous, contemptible and deserve to fail"......
    The PM is risking more, as the fortunes of the two things she holds most dear (Mr M aside) rest upon the outcome. The advantage she has is of being able to move more quickly - I am quite sure the Revocation Bill is already drafted.
    May is a traditionalist conservative's conservative. Those who are not with her are against her, and co-operation form others is on her terms, not theirs.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 18,347

    IanB2 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    daodao said:

    A successful VoNC is the only way to avoid a hard "no deal" Brexit if May's deal fails to be passed, but could lead to one of many different outcomes, as outlined in the thread header. The later it is held, the more difficult it will be to create an alternative government in time to suspend/revoke A50, especially if it leads to a GE, as the clock is ticking.

    Hopefully, May will procrastinate as long as possible, because IMO it is important that the UK formally leaves the EU at 2300 on 29/3/19.

    Brinkmanship is utterly reckless.
    However, May's Shit Deal or No Deal is the only game in town..... Brexit, either way. Up to the Remainers to decide which one they want. Until they decide, we will have brinksmanship.

    The game could end tomorrow. Their call....
    Nope. May, as PM, is responsible for building a majority in Parliament. She has chosen holding the nation to ransom as her approach, running down the clock until her flawed deal is the only option. It is dangerous, contemptible and deserves to fail. Any damage caused will be owned by her and her alone.
    Her approach is that faced with No Deal, they will back her deal as we approach 29th March. Who will blink - PM or MPs?

    She would no doubt argue that flights of fancy over other options that don't deliver Brexit are "dangerous, contemptible and deserve to fail"......
    The PM is risking more, as the fortunes of the two things she holds most dear (leaving Mr M on the side) rest upon the outcome. The advantage she has is of being able to move more quickly - I am quite sure the Revocation Bill is already drafted.
    Dream on. You want other options pursued? Then the Cabinet will have to remove her.... cuz she ain't budging.
    She doesn't need to go anywhere to stop no deal.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 11,804
    edited December 2018

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    daodao said:

    A successful VoNC is the only way to avoid a hard "no deal" Brexit if May's deal fails to be passed, but could lead to one of many different outcomes, as outlined in the thread header. The later it is held, the more difficult it will be to create an alternative government in time to suspend/revoke A50, especially if it leads to a GE, as the clock is ticking.

    Hopefully, May will procrastinate as long as possible, because IMO it is important that the UK formally leaves the EU at 2300 on 29/3/19.

    Brinkmanship is utterly reckless.
    However, May's Shit Deal or No Deal is the only game in town..... Brexit, either way. Up to the Remainers to decide which one they want. Until they decide, we will have brinksmanship.

    The game could end tomorrow. Their call....
    Nope. May, as PM, is responsible for building a majority in Parliament. She has chosen holding the nation to ransom as her approach, running down the clock until her flawed deal is the only option. It is dangerous, contemptible and deserves to fail. Any damage caused will be owned by her and her alone.
    Her approach is that faced with No Deal, they will back her deal as we approach 29th March. Who will blink - PM or MPs?

    She would no doubt argue that flights of fancy over other options that don't deliver Brexit are "dangerous, contemptible and deserve to fail"......
    Discovering she can’t win people’s hearts or minds, she has chosen fear and coercion, hammering into the cracks of an already divided nation.

    Running down the clock to deny oxygen to any other thought or to fail to offer anything to different views in parliament is unforgivable from a PM who claims to have the national interest at heart. She is abusing her positional power to ram her own myopic interpretation of Brexit down our throats.

    She will either pull this off, win her deal and salt the Earth or cause chaos. Not what we want from a PM.

  • F1: new markets!

    I knew you'd be excited.

    Unfortunately, they're just season match bets.

    Magnussen to beat Grosjean is 1.95. That's the only one looking remotely value, but locking up money for a year over essentially a coin toss bet is not something I'll be doing.

    As an aside, I do have some more inter-season blogs ready to go, I'm just waiting a little while. Only 2-3 more so plenty of time to shove them up ahead of testing.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,124
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    daodao said:

    A successful VoNC is the only way to avoid a hard "no deal" Brexit if May's deal fails to be passed, but could lead to one of many different outcomes, as outlined in the thread header. The later it is held, the more difficult it will be to create an alternative government in time to suspend/revoke A50, especially if it leads to a GE, as the clock is ticking.

    Hopefully, May will procrastinate as long as possible, because IMO it is important that the UK formally leaves the EU at 2300 on 29/3/19.

    Brinkmanship is utterly reckless.
    However, May's Shit Deal or No Deal is the only game in town..... Brexit, either way. Up to the Remainers to decide which one they want. Until they decide, we will have brinksmanship.

    The game could end tomorrow. Their call....
    Nope. May, as PM, is responsible for building a majority in Parliament. She has chosen holding the nation to ransom as her approach, running down the clock until her flawed deal is the only option. It is dangerous, contemptible and deserves to fail. Any damage caused will be owned by her and her alone.
    Her approach is that faced with No Deal, they will back her deal as we approach 29th March. Who will blink - PM or MPs?

    She would no doubt argue that flights of fancy over other options that don't deliver Brexit are "dangerous, contemptible and deserve to fail"......
    Discovering she can’t win people’s hearts or minds, she has chosen fear and coercion, hammering into the cracks of an already divided nation.

    Running down the clock to deny oxygen to any other thought or to fail to offer anything to different views in parliament is unforgivable from a PM who claims to have the national interest at heart. She is abusing her positional power to ram her own myopic interpretation of Brexit down our throats.

    She will either pull this off, win her deal and salt the Earth or cause chaos. Not what we want from a PM.

    Careful, you'll spit that dummy right out the pram.....
  • Great piece Alastair - I initially scrolled to the bottom to see who had written it...

    May absolutely will try and win a 2nd confidence motion. But I don't think she will be able to run down the entire 14 days, and as you've written the power discussions will be about her rather than involving her. I find it unlikely that having lost a Confidence vote she would be able to do anything at all that would enable her to win one.

    And whilst she is off trying to pull off a miracle the other powers will also be moving. Jezbollah will be heavily into coalition negotiations with the PLP, saner Tories like Grieve will be in discussion with the rest of the cross party WhatsApp group about who could lead a temporary Brexit unity government to deliver a referendum - what the piece didnt mention was the process of how the Palace plays these steps.

    May would stay on as PM until a replacement was appointed - that is her constitutional duty as it was Gordon Brown's in the 5 days of Coalition discussions in 2010. I expect though that whatever remaining power she had will quickly erode in that period, which means that someone else must be given the chance to form a government as it quickly becomes apparent that she cannot. Which suggests Corbyn, but he also would have difficulties in his negotiations with the PLP, SNP, DUP etc.

    There is no precedent because the FTPA is too new. But is there a scenario where in the 14 days we have PM May for a few days, then PM Corbyn for a week, then a 3rd PM given a few days at the end to try and win a vote? A senior backbench figure in the WhatsApp group- Hilary Benn or Dominic Grieve perhaps?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 11,253
    edited December 2018
    Another good article. i heard on radio a discussion about how social media had changed the way we behave and how for the first time it feels like we the citizen have power. The effect has been to make people angrier and the commentator predicted that this would lead to the citizens of many more countries following the French model and taking to the streets.

    I found the piece convincing and attractive. Perhaps the time has come to stop predicting what might happen and instead get involved by going over the heads of our rotting political class. So my prediction this coming year is that we the people will start asserting ourselves.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 968

    How certain are we that Mrs May is a "duty over all" kinda person?

    Is there a viable possibility that she'd pull a Dave and flounce out? Lacks a spouse with family money, but he'll have been well rewarded in the city and she's got a good pension.

    Temptation to walk away citing health much be a factor.

    A bit like Fiona Onasanya...a duty over guilty type of person.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 11,804
    edited December 2018

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    daodao said:

    A successful VoNC is the only way to avoid a hard "no deal" Brexit if May's deal fails to be passed, but could lead to one of many different outcomes, as outlined in the thread header. The later it is held, the more difficult it will be to create an alternative government in time to suspend/revoke A50, especially if it leads to a GE, as the clock is ticking.

    Hopefully, May will procrastinate as long as possible, because IMO it is important that the UK formally leaves the EU at 2300 on 29/3/19.

    Brinkmanship is utterly reckless.
    However, May's Shit Deal or No Deal is the only game in town..... Brexit, either way. Up to the Remainers to decide which one they want. Until they decide, we will have brinksmanship.

    The game could end tomorrow. Their call....
    Nope. May, as PM, is responsible for building a majority in Parliament. She has chosen holding the nation to ransom as her approach, running down the clock until her flawed deal is the only option. It is dangerous, contemptible and deserves to fail. Any damage caused will be owned by her and her alone.
    Her approach is that faced with No Deal, they will back her deal as we approach 29th March. Who will blink - PM or MPs?

    She would no doubt argue that flights of fancy over other options that don't deliver Brexit are "dangerous, contemptible and deserve to fail"......
    Discovering she can’t win people’s hearts or minds, she has chosen fear and coercion, hammering into the cracks of an already divided nation.

    Running down the clock to deny oxygen to any other thought or to fail to offer anything to different views in parliament is unforgivable from a PM who claims to have the national interest at heart. She is abusing her positional power to ram her own myopic interpretation of Brexit down our throats.

    She will either pull this off, win her deal and salt the Earth or cause chaos. Not what we want from a PM.

    Careful, you'll spit that dummy right out the pram.....
    Classy MM. I’m just disappointed that you’ve fallen for it. You’ve clearly made your bed. Hopefully all will be well. But she’s taken us down a dangerous path, it could have been avoided, it’s yours to own either way now.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 968

    Great piece Alastair - I initially scrolled to the bottom to see who had written it...

    May absolutely will try and win a 2nd confidence motion. But I don't think she will be able to run down the entire 14 days, and as you've written the power discussions will be about her rather than involving her. I find it unlikely that having lost a Confidence vote she would be able to do anything at all that would enable her to win one.

    And whilst she is off trying to pull off a miracle the other powers will also be moving. Jezbollah will be heavily into coalition negotiations with the PLP, saner Tories like Grieve will be in discussion with the rest of the cross party WhatsApp group about who could lead a temporary Brexit unity government to deliver a referendum - what the piece didnt mention was the process of how the Palace plays these steps.

    May would stay on as PM until a replacement was appointed - that is her constitutional duty as it was Gordon Brown's in the 5 days of Coalition discussions in 2010. I expect though that whatever remaining power she had will quickly erode in that period, which means that someone else must be given the chance to form a government as it quickly becomes apparent that she cannot. Which suggests Corbyn, but he also would have difficulties in his negotiations with the PLP, SNP, DUP etc.

    There is no precedent because the FTPA is too new. But is there a scenario where in the 14 days we have PM May for a few days, then PM Corbyn for a week, then a 3rd PM given a few days at the end to try and win a vote? A senior backbench figure in the WhatsApp group- Hilary Benn or Dominic Grieve perhaps?

    Does that mean that Cornyn would move into No 10 even just for a week?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 22,164
    Good article Alistair, and well done to yourself and others - notably David Herdson - with the balls to put their 2019 predictions in writing. The next year will be one in which quite literally anything could happen.

    I stick with only my one previous point, not mentioned in this article, that the one certainty over the coming months is that Mr Speaker will at some point make a complete arse of himself.

    PS London is looking awesome at the moment, off on the big wheel this morning, being a tourist with the wife for a few days.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 14,942
    Sandpit said:

    Good article Alistair, and well done to yourself and others - notably David Herdson - with the balls to put their 2019 predictions in writing. The next year will be one in which quite literally anything could happen.

    I stick with only my one previous point, not mentioned in this article, that the one certainty over the coming months is that Mr Speaker will at some point make a complete arse of himself.

    PS London is looking awesome at the moment, off on the big wheel this morning, being a tourist with the wife for a few days.

    Possibly a bit misty, but the view from the top should be great! Enjoy.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 11,804
    You know when an EU nation does something silly and needs a package from the EU to bail it out. The EU comes up with some strict terms, costs and a technocratic leader is appointed to force the medicine through the national parliament as the only way

    It’s ironic that is where Brexit has taken us and even more ironic that half the Leavers are cheering it along.
  • The risk to MPs' careers of voting against their parties might be overstated. First, there might not be time for deselection and replacement before an election. More importantly, if there is a new leader, then voting against the old one might no longer be called treason.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 11,253
    I'd never heard the pennies on a railway line before. Has anyone tried it? I've sometimes wondered what would come out the other end if Jacob Rees Mogg fell under a steam roller
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 52,295
    Nothing looks likely, yet something must happen !
  • If there is to be a general election I think that the old boundaries will be in force. The new proposed boundaries have yet to be voted through by Parliament.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,124
    Jonathan said:

    Classy MM. I’m just disappointed that you’ve fallen for it. You’ve clearly made your bed. Hopefully all will be well. But she’s taken us down a dangerous path, it could have been avoided, it’s yours to own either way now.

    I wish we were elsewhere. But if it is an ill-advised poorly-prepared No Deal or May's Shit Deal, I have to go with May's Shit Deal. But all involved with getting us to this point should be removed from any power and influence forthwith.

    The alternative is an ill-conceived wish-list of Not Brexit. At least I'm confonting reality and making unpalatable choices. We had a vote to Leave. We need to honour that. The risk to democracy of not doing so is large and troubling.

    Again, the people shouting loudest about the risks of No Deal Brexit are those Remainers who could prevent it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 11,959

    Great piece Alastair - I initially scrolled to the bottom to see who had written it...

    May absolutely will try and win a 2nd confidence motion. But I don't think she will be able to run down the entire 14 days, and as you've written the power discussions will be about her rather than involving her. I find it unlikely that having lost a Confidence vote she would be able to do anything at all that would enable her to win one.

    And whilst she is off trying to pull off a miracle the other powers will also be moving. Jezbollah will be heavily into coalition negotiations with the PLP, saner Tories like Grieve will be in discussion with the rest of the cross party WhatsApp group about who could lead a temporary Brexit unity government to deliver a referendum - what the piece didnt mention was the process of how the Palace plays these steps.

    May would stay on as PM until a replacement was appointed - that is her constitutional duty as it was Gordon Brown's in the 5 days of Coalition discussions in 2010. I expect though that whatever remaining power she had will quickly erode in that period, which means that someone else must be given the chance to form a government as it quickly becomes apparent that she cannot. Which suggests Corbyn, but he also would have difficulties in his negotiations with the PLP, SNP, DUP etc.

    There is no precedent because the FTPA is too new. But is there a scenario where in the 14 days we have PM May for a few days, then PM Corbyn for a week, then a 3rd PM given a few days at the end to try and win a vote? A senior backbench figure in the WhatsApp group- Hilary Benn or Dominic Grieve perhaps?

    What is very clear is that the only alternate majority to the one currently held by May is a coalition of remain MPs.
    Whether it could ever be cohesive enough to hold together to even agree on a leader, let alone form a government and formulate an alternate policy to May’s forced choice between a shit sandwich and a round of Russian roulette is doubtful, though.
    And it would require a highly persuasive and decisive leader..........

    So general election it would be.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 22,164

    Sandpit said:

    Good article Alistair, and well done to yourself and others - notably David Herdson - with the balls to put their 2019 predictions in writing. The next year will be one in which quite literally anything could happen.

    I stick with only my one previous point, not mentioned in this article, that the one certainty over the coming months is that Mr Speaker will at some point make a complete arse of himself.

    PS London is looking awesome at the moment, off on the big wheel this morning, being a tourist with the wife for a few days.

    Possibly a bit misty, but the view from the top should be great! Enjoy.
    Thanks. Was 2012 when I was last a tourist (as opposed to seeing the airport, the meeting room and the taxi) in London, just before the Olympics. Fair to say that lots has changed when you look around.
  • Notably, the No Dealers on PB have fallen, reluctantly, behind May’s Deal.

    If that’s true in Parliament then May almost has a majority.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 11,804
    The MPs will reject the deal, they will reject myriad other things. It’s the job of the PM to find the thing that they can vote for. May currently doesn’t want to do that and it is unclear who else can. So it’s back to May to lead us over the cliff or to fire up her imagination and have an original thought of her own.

    The odds of the cliff are looking good.
  • daodaodaodao Posts: 821
    edited December 2018
    Jonathan said:

    You know when an EU nation does something silly and needs a package from the EU to bail it out. The EU comes up with some strict terms, costs and a technocratic leader is appointed to force the medicine through the national parliament as the only way

    It’s ironic that is where Brexit has taken us and even more ironic that half the Leavers are cheering it along.

    After 2300 on 29/3/18, it will not be the EU's business and the gauleiters Minister-President Herr Juncker and Reichskanzlerin Frau Merkel can be ignored.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 11,253
    Completely OT. I heard that Plato had died. Does anyone know what happened? She didn't seem very old.
  • mattmatt Posts: 2,909
    edited December 2018
    Roger said:

    Another good article. i heard on radio a discussion about how social media had changed the way we behave and how for the first time it feels like we the citizen have power. The effect has been to make people angrier and the commentator predicted that this would lead to the citizens of many more countries following the French model and taking to the streets.

    I found the piece convincing and attractive. Perhaps the time has come to stop predicting what might happen and instead get involved by going over the heads of our rotting political class. So my prediction this coming year is that we the people will start asserting ourselves.

    Who was the commentator and what is their track record for accuracy?

    Edit: it’s also historic nonsense, look at 1848 for example.

    You might find it attractive and therefore convincing but how much online bile and stupidity is transferred to a face to face conversation. [read Decca Aitkenhead in the Times on people who think that life can be ring-fenced in the manner of a Facebook page for a on-point conversation]
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 11,959
    Roger said:

    I'd never heard the pennies on a railway line before. Has anyone tried it? I've sometimes wondered what would come out the other end if Jacob Rees Mogg fell under a steam roller

    My mother did, as a child, in a more innocent age. You just get very flat pennies.

    But of course playing on railway tracks is both illegal, and extremely dangerous.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 52,295
    edited December 2018
    Nigelb said:

    Great piece Alastair - I initially scrolled to the bottom to see who had written it...

    May absolutely will try and win a 2nd confidence motion. But I don't think she will be able to run down the entire 14 days, and as you've written the power discussions will be about her rather than involving her. I find it unlikely that having lost a Confidence vote she would be able to do anything at all that would enable her to win one.

    And whilst she is off trying to pull off a miracle the other powers will also be moving. Jezbollah will be heavily into coalition negotiations with the PLP, saner Tories like Grieve will be in discussion with the rest of the cross party WhatsApp group about who could lead a temporary Brexit unity government to deliver a referendum - what the piece didnt mention was the process of how the Palace plays these steps.

    May would stay on as PM until a replacement was appointed - that is her constitutional duty as it was Gordon Brown's in the 5 days of Coalition discussions in 2010. I expect though that whatever remaining power she had will quickly erode in that period, which means that someone else must be given the chance to form a government as it quickly becomes apparent that she cannot. Which suggests Corbyn, but he also would have difficulties in his negotiations with the PLP, SNP, DUP etc.

    There is no precedent because the FTPA is too new. But is there a scenario where in the 14 days we have PM May for a few days, then PM Corbyn for a week, then a 3rd PM given a few days at the end to try and win a vote? A senior backbench figure in the WhatsApp group- Hilary Benn or Dominic Grieve perhaps?

    What is very clear is that the only alternate majority to the one currently held by May is a coalition of remain MPs.
    Whether it could ever be cohesive enough to hold together to even agree on a leader, let alone form a government and formulate an alternate policy to May’s forced choice between a shit sandwich and a round of Russian roulette is doubtful, though.
    And it would require a highly persuasive and decisive leader..........

    So general election it would be.

    Both Corbyn and May will whip against a centrist Dad Grieve-Cable-Umuna govt if it comes down to it.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 22,164
    timmo said:

    Great piece Alastair - I initially scrolled to the bottom to see who had written it...

    May absolutely will try and win a 2nd confidence motion. But I don't think she will be able to run down the entire 14 days, and as you've written the power discussions will be about her rather than involving her. I find it unlikely that having lost a Confidence vote she would be able to do anything at all that would enable her to win one.

    And whilst she is off trying to pull off a miracle the other powers will also be moving. Jezbollah will be heavily into coalition negotiations with the PLP, saner Tories like Grieve will be in discussion with the rest of the cross party WhatsApp group about who could lead a temporary Brexit unity government to deliver a referendum - what the piece didnt mention was the process of how the Palace plays these steps.

    May would stay on as PM until a replacement was appointed - that is her constitutional duty as it was Gordon Brown's in the 5 days of Coalition discussions in 2010. I expect though that whatever remaining power she had will quickly erode in that period, which means that someone else must be given the chance to form a government as it quickly becomes apparent that she cannot. Which suggests Corbyn, but he also would have difficulties in his negotiations with the PLP, SNP, DUP etc.

    There is no precedent because the FTPA is too new. But is there a scenario where in the 14 days we have PM May for a few days, then PM Corbyn for a week, then a 3rd PM given a few days at the end to try and win a vote? A senior backbench figure in the WhatsApp group- Hilary Benn or Dominic Grieve perhaps?

    Does that mean that Cornyn would move into No 10 even just for a week?
    Rather like with Brown in 2010 and Callaghan in 1979, Mrs May won’t go and see the Queen until it’s clear whom HM needs to call for next. Unless Corbyn has a genuine chance at a majority in the aftermath of the vote, the PM will either stay in situ through the election campaign, or hand over to another member of her party who can keep the DUP on side.
  • Mr. Roger, I think it emerged a couple of months ago, but Miss Plato actually passed away around June/July. She was ill. As you say, she wasn't very old.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 11,804

    Jonathan said:

    Classy MM. I’m just disappointed that you’ve fallen for it. You’ve clearly made your bed. Hopefully all will be well. But she’s taken us down a dangerous path, it could have been avoided, it’s yours to own either way now.

    I wish we were elsewhere. But if it is an ill-advised poorly-prepared No Deal or May's Shit Deal, I have to go with May's Shit Deal. But all involved with getting us to this point should be removed from any power and influence forthwith.

    The alternative is an ill-conceived wish-list of Not Brexit. At least I'm confonting reality and making unpalatable choices. We had a vote to Leave. We need to honour that. The risk to democracy of not doing so is large and troubling.

    Again, the people shouting loudest about the risks of No Deal Brexit are those Remainers who could prevent it.
    May has offered nothing to Remainers, nothing. There is no reason for them to back the deal. Not even a fig leaf.

    If you want people to put their name to the deal this really matters. Fear if something worse is not enough. Especially when the something else was avoidable.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 11,804
    daodao said:

    Jonathan said:

    You know when an EU nation does something silly and needs a package from the EU to bail it out. The EU comes up with some strict terms, costs and a technocratic leader is appointed to force the medicine through the national parliament as the only way

    It’s ironic that is where Brexit has taken us and even more ironic that half the Leavers are cheering it along.

    After 2300 on 29/3/18, it will not be the EU's business and the gauleiters Minister-President Herr Juncker and Reichskanzlerin Frau Merkel can be ignored.
    Not really. In Mays deal we’ll be taking a calculated risk on being rule takers for a very long time.
  • Mr. Jonathan, it's almost impressive that May has, in a binary situation, managed to alienate both sides.
  • daodaodaodao Posts: 821
    Jonathan said:

    daodao said:

    Jonathan said:

    You know when an EU nation does something silly and needs a package from the EU to bail it out. The EU comes up with some strict terms, costs and a technocratic leader is appointed to force the medicine through the national parliament as the only way

    It’s ironic that is where Brexit has taken us and even more ironic that half the Leavers are cheering it along.

    After 2300 on 29/3/18, it will not be the EU's business and the gauleiters Minister-President Herr Juncker and Reichskanzlerin Frau Merkel can be ignored.
    Not really. In Mays deal we’ll be taking a calculated risk on being rule takers for a very long time.
    In which case, no deal is a better option.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 11,253
    daodao said:

    Jonathan said:

    You know when an EU nation does something silly and needs a package from the EU to bail it out. The EU comes up with some strict terms, costs and a technocratic leader is appointed to force the medicine through the national parliament as the only way

    It’s ironic that is where Brexit has taken us and even more ironic that half the Leavers are cheering it along.

    After 2300 on 29/3/18, it will not be the EU's business and the gauleiters Minister-President Herr Juncker and Reichskanzlerin Frau Merkel can be ignored.
    A risible comment and one of the reasons we are treated with such derision by those who ought to be our friends and allies
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 11,959
    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Great piece Alastair - I initially scrolled to the bottom to see who had written it...

    May absolutely will try and win a 2nd confidence motion. But I don't think she will be able to run down the entire 14 days, and as you've written the power discussions will be about her rather than involving her. I find it unlikely that having lost a Confidence vote she would be able to do anything at all that would enable her to win one.

    And whilst she is off trying to pull off a miracle the other powers will also be moving. Jezbollah will be heavily into coalition negotiations with the PLP, saner Tories like Grieve will be in discussion with the rest of the cross party WhatsApp group about who could lead a temporary Brexit unity government to deliver a referendum - what the piece didnt mention was the process of how the Palace plays these steps.

    May would stay on as PM until a replacement was appointed - that is her constitutional duty as it was Gordon Brown's in the 5 days of Coalition discussions in 2010. I expect though that whatever remaining power she had will quickly erode in that period, which means that someone else must be given the chance to form a government as it quickly becomes apparent that she cannot. Which suggests Corbyn, but he also would have difficulties in his negotiations with the PLP, SNP, DUP etc.

    There is no precedent because the FTPA is too new. But is there a scenario where in the 14 days we have PM May for a few days, then PM Corbyn for a week, then a 3rd PM given a few days at the end to try and win a vote? A senior backbench figure in the WhatsApp group- Hilary Benn or Dominic Grieve perhaps?

    What is very clear is that the only alternate majority to the one currently held by May is a coalition of remain MPs.
    Whether it could ever be cohesive enough to hold together to even agree on a leader, let alone form a government and formulate an alternate policy to May’s forced choice between a shit sandwich and a round of Russian roulette is doubtful, though.
    And it would require a highly persuasive and decisive leader..........

    So general election it would be.

    Both Corbyn and May will whip against a centrist parent Soubry-Cable-Umuna govt if it comes down to it.
    Which would be a fairly irrelevant detail.
    The bigger problem would be coming up with a program compelling enough to transcend party loyalty for those who are remainers but not fanatically so.

    It’s fairly unlikely that a call for a second referendum falls into that category - and almost certain that revocation of Article 50 doesn’t.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 52,295
    One scenario is that we leave without a deal, in the midst of a GE. The way I see it playing out then depends on the GE result.
    If the Tories get a majority or strong minority with the DUP again then they'll just keep ramrodding May's old deal through. If Corbyn gets in with a majority he'll renegotiate. If Corbyn + Minor parties is the only viable government then there will be a referendum.....

    On Scottish independence :D
  • daodaodaodao Posts: 821
    edited December 2018
    Roger said:

    daodao said:

    Jonathan said:

    You know when an EU nation does something silly and needs a package from the EU to bail it out. The EU comes up with some strict terms, costs and a technocratic leader is appointed to force the medicine through the national parliament as the only way

    It’s ironic that is where Brexit has taken us and even more ironic that half the Leavers are cheering it along.

    After 2300 on 29/3/18, it will not be the EU's business and the gauleiters Minister-President Herr Juncker and Reichskanzlerin Frau Merkel can be ignored.
    A risible comment and one of the reasons we are treated with such derision by those who ought to be our friends and allies
    In foreign relations, countries have interests not friends. Brexit is a declaration of hostility to the EU and all it stands for, so its leaders are no longer the UK's friends and allies. The best that can be achieved is a cold peace, i.e. not as bad as the current relationship between Russia and the Ukraine. The assistance by the French authorities to migrants crossing the straits of Dover is an example of how one of the EU's members is currently deliberately creating a problem for the UK government.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 11,959
    So long as we don’t follow this example....

    https://www.politico.com/story/2018/12/29/trump-government-shutdown-tweets-presidential-harassment-1076872
    ...Negotiations to reopen the government are happening exactly where White House aides want them — on President Donald Trump’s Twitter feed.

    As the federal government shutdown entered its eighth day on Saturday, the president once again had no public events on his schedule. Instead, he spent the day making private calls to congressional allies, holding closed-door huddles with White House aides — and tweeting....
  • Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Both Corbyn and May will whip against a centrist parent Soubry-Cable-Umuna govt if it comes down to it.

    Which would be a fairly irrelevant detail.
    The bigger problem would be coming up with a program compelling enough to transcend party loyalty for those who are remainers but not fanatically so.

    It’s fairly unlikely that a call for a second referendum falls into that category - and almost certain that revocation of Article 50 doesn’t.

    The obvious and traditional solution is a fresh General Election. When there is a national crisis and there is no majority for any option the only solution is to elect a fresh sent of MPs. The reason why this isn't happening is that Tory MPs don't wish to be led by May and Labour MPs don't wish to be led by Corbyn. Neither set of MPs can agree on who should replace the current leader nor is there a consensus in thinking between MPs and the wider party memberships.

    Which is where a unity government comes in. Tory MPs don't want a majority Tory government led by May, Johnson or Rees-Mogg. Labour MPs don't want a majority Labour government led by Corbyn. There are enough WhatsApp Tory and Labour MPs to hold a majority with the SNP and LibDems, they just need to agree a leader.

    I am deadly serious about this WhatsApp group. Might make for some very long odds options for next PM...
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 14,942
    Nigelb said:

    Roger said:

    I'd never heard the pennies on a railway line before. Has anyone tried it? I've sometimes wondered what would come out the other end if Jacob Rees Mogg fell under a steam roller

    My mother did, as a child, in a more innocent age. You just get very flat pennies.

    But of course playing on railway tracks is both illegal, and extremely dangerous.
    It's a lot more dangerous now to play near railway lines. When I used to do it, 70 years ago trains were a lot noisier. You could hear them coming for quite a while before they arrived.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 52,295

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Both Corbyn and May will whip against a centrist parent Soubry-Cable-Umuna govt if it comes down to it.

    Which would be a fairly irrelevant detail.
    The bigger problem would be coming up with a program compelling enough to transcend party loyalty for those who are remainers but not fanatically so.

    It’s fairly unlikely that a call for a second referendum falls into that category - and almost certain that revocation of Article 50 doesn’t.

    The obvious and traditional solution is a fresh General Election. When there is a national crisis and there is no majority for any option the only solution is to elect a fresh sent of MPs. The reason why this isn't happening is that Tory MPs don't wish to be led by May and Labour MPs don't wish to be led by Corbyn. Neither set of MPs can agree on who should replace the current leader nor is there a consensus in thinking between MPs and the wider party memberships.

    Which is where a unity government comes in. Tory MPs don't want a majority Tory government led by May, Johnson or Rees-Mogg. Labour MPs don't want a majority Labour government led by Corbyn. There are enough WhatsApp Tory and Labour MPs to hold a majority with the SNP and LibDems, they just need to agree a leader.

    I am deadly serious about this WhatsApp group. Might make for some very long odds options for next PM...
    Govt of the centrist Dads... Explored downthread by myself but not likely I think ?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 14,942
    Pulpstar said:

    One scenario is that we leave without a deal, in the midst of a GE. The way I see it playing out then depends on the GE result.
    If the Tories get a majority or strong minority with the DUP again then they'll just keep ramrodding May's old deal through. If Corbyn gets in with a majority he'll renegotiate. If Corbyn + Minor parties is the only viable government then there will be a referendum.....

    On Scottish independence :D


    That's a horrifying thought, TBH. An election called for 4th or 11th April, and we 'leave' during the campaign. or an election on 21st March....... no, doesn't bear thinking about.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 11,959

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Both Corbyn and May will whip against a centrist parent Soubry-Cable-Umuna govt if it comes down to it.

    Which would be a fairly irrelevant detail.
    The bigger problem would be coming up with a program compelling enough to transcend party loyalty for those who are remainers but not fanatically so.

    It’s fairly unlikely that a call for a second referendum falls into that category - and almost certain that revocation of Article 50 doesn’t.

    The obvious and traditional solution is a fresh General Election. When there is a national crisis and there is no majority for any option the only solution is to elect a fresh sent of MPs. The reason why this isn't happening is that Tory MPs don't wish to be led by May and Labour MPs don't wish to be led by Corbyn. Neither set of MPs can agree on who should replace the current leader nor is there a consensus in thinking between MPs and the wider party memberships.

    Which is where a unity government comes in. Tory MPs don't want a majority Tory government led by May, Johnson or Rees-Mogg. Labour MPs don't want a majority Labour government led by Corbyn. There are enough WhatsApp Tory and Labour MPs to hold a majority with the SNP and LibDems, they just need to agree a leader.

    I am deadly serious about this WhatsApp group. Might make for some very long odds options for next PM...
    There isn’t much time for a general election, and a fair likelihood of its returining a parliament with much the same deficiencies as this one.

    A unity government is of course a possibility. I just don’t think it very likely to get off the ground in the very limited time available.



  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,566

    Mr. Roger, I think it emerged a couple of months ago, but Miss Plato actually passed away around June/July. She was ill. As you say, she wasn't very old.

    I am very sorry to hear that, I had no idea she had died.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,566
    Roger said:

    Completely OT. I heard that Plato had died. Does anyone know what happened? She didn't seem very old.

    I doubt she was over much over 50 . I met her once at a PB do
  • Mr. Root, I had wondered (and mentioned here at the time) if she was alright, because her Twitter account just stopped posting (NB it was still up, not suspended, but inactive).
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 11,959

    Nigelb said:

    Roger said:

    I'd never heard the pennies on a railway line before. Has anyone tried it? I've sometimes wondered what would come out the other end if Jacob Rees Mogg fell under a steam roller

    My mother did, as a child, in a more innocent age. You just get very flat pennies.

    But of course playing on railway tracks is both illegal, and extremely dangerous.
    It's a lot more dangerous now to play near railway lines. When I used to do it, 70 years ago trains were a lot noisier. You could hear them coming for quite a while before they arrived.
    And no one wears red petticoats these days....
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 14,942

    Mr. Roger, I think it emerged a couple of months ago, but Miss Plato actually passed away around June/July. She was ill. As you say, she wasn't very old.

    I am very sorry to hear that, I had no idea she had died.
    That's very sad. Very sad indeed.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 11,667

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Both Corbyn and May will whip against a centrist parent Soubry-Cable-Umuna govt if it comes down to it.

    Which would be a fairly irrelevant detail.
    The bigger problem would be coming up with a program compelling enough to transcend party loyalty for those who are remainers but not fanatically so.

    It’s fairly unlikely that a call for a second referendum falls into that category - and almost certain that revocation of Article 50 doesn’t.

    The obvious and traditional solution is a fresh General Election. When there is a national crisis and there is no majority for any option the only solution is to elect a fresh sent of MPs. The reason why this isn't happening is that Tory MPs don't wish to be led by May and Labour MPs don't wish to be led by Corbyn. Neither set of MPs can agree on who should replace the current leader nor is there a consensus in thinking between MPs and the wider party memberships.

    Which is where a unity government comes in. Tory MPs don't want a majority Tory government led by May, Johnson or Rees-Mogg. Labour MPs don't want a majority Labour government led by Corbyn. There are enough WhatsApp Tory and Labour MPs to hold a majority with the SNP and LibDems, they just need to agree a leader.

    I am deadly serious about this WhatsApp group. Might make for some very long odds options for next PM...
    Deadly serious but completely deluded.

    How on earth do they get 325?l
  • tysontyson Posts: 4,536
    Roger said:

    Completely OT. I heard that Plato had died. Does anyone know what happened? She didn't seem very old.

    Roger said:

    Completely OT. I heard that Plato had died. Does anyone know what happened? She didn't seem very old.


    Oh gosh, what terribly sad news. I had many run ins with Plato over the years. SBS tragically passed away after an illness. I remember that well.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 8,520
    Roger said:

    I'd never heard the pennies on a railway line before. Has anyone tried it? I've sometimes wondered what would come out the other end if Jacob Rees Mogg fell under a steam roller

    We used to do it as kids back in the early 70s - the hardest part was finding the flattened pennies afterwards.

    We had zero concept of there being any danger to the train or passengers in it at all. It's one of a list of things I did as a child that I feel bad about these days... casual racism, sexism, homophobia are among the others sadly.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,566

    Mr. Root, I had wondered (and mentioned here at the time) if she was alright, because her Twitter account just stopped posting (NB it was still up, not suspended, but inactive).

    There was a Guy? called Financier who used to post on here who tried to help out Ms Plato, I think she had money worries and he did a good job for her.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,566
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Roger said:

    I'd never heard the pennies on a railway line before. Has anyone tried it? I've sometimes wondered what would come out the other end if Jacob Rees Mogg fell under a steam roller

    My mother did, as a child, in a more innocent age. You just get very flat pennies.

    But of course playing on railway tracks is both illegal, and extremely dangerous.
    It's a lot more dangerous now to play near railway lines. When I used to do it, 70 years ago trains were a lot noisier. You could hear them coming for quite a while before they arrived.
    And no one wears red petticoats these days....
    A quick google suggests you are in error. If people are not wearng them, no one would be selling them....
  • Mr. Root, not familiar with the details, but that's good, if so.

    Mr. Tyson, yeah, Mr. SBS was a top chap. Must be about a decade or so that he passed away.
  • Most of the time most MPs will do the thing that is most likely to give them most chance of remaining an MP. From here, for Tory MPs that means voting to ensure that the UK leaves the EU on 29th March 2019 and for Labour MPs it is making sure to do what Jeremy tells them to do. Thus, a government led by Theresa May will take us out of the EU on 29th March 2019. The only issue is whether it will be under her deal or No Deal. May would prefer the former, Corbyn the latter. It could be that Jeremy is the one who gets his way.
  • Jonathan said:

    The MPs will reject the deal, they will reject myriad other things. It’s the job of the PM to find the thing that they can vote for. May currently doesn’t want to do that and it is unclear who else can. So it’s back to May to lead us over the cliff or to fire up her imagination and have an original thought of her own.

    The odds of the cliff are looking good.

    Yep, for May the absolute, non-negotiable priority - the one guiding principle - is to end freedom of movement for UK and EU citizens. She will do whatever it takes to ensure that happens. It is the only thin she truly believes in. This suits Corbyn, too; so if May's deal falls it will be No Deal.

  • daodaodaodao Posts: 821

    Most of the time most MPs will do the thing that is most likely to give them most chance of remaining an MP. From here, for Tory MPs that means voting to ensure that the UK leaves the EU on 29th March 2019 and for Labour MPs it is making sure to do what Jeremy tells them to do. Thus, a government led by Theresa May will take us out of the EU on 29th March 2019. The only issue is whether it will be under her deal or No Deal. May would prefer the former, Corbyn the latter. It could be that Jeremy is the one who gets his way.

    Good for JC, particularly if he can in future plausibly claim not to have been involved, so his hands would be "clean".
  • daodao said:

    Jonathan said:

    You know when an EU nation does something silly and needs a package from the EU to bail it out. The EU comes up with some strict terms, costs and a technocratic leader is appointed to force the medicine through the national parliament as the only way

    It’s ironic that is where Brexit has taken us and even more ironic that half the Leavers are cheering it along.

    After 2300 on 29/3/18, it will not be the EU's business and the gauleiters Minister-President Herr Juncker and Reichskanzlerin Frau Merkel can be ignored.

    The fantasies of a Little Englander. No wonder the world is laughing at us.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 11,959

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Roger said:

    I'd never heard the pennies on a railway line before. Has anyone tried it? I've sometimes wondered what would come out the other end if Jacob Rees Mogg fell under a steam roller

    My mother did, as a child, in a more innocent age. You just get very flat pennies.

    But of course playing on railway tracks is both illegal, and extremely dangerous.
    It's a lot more dangerous now to play near railway lines. When I used to do it, 70 years ago trains were a lot noisier. You could hear them coming for quite a while before they arrived.
    And no one wears red petticoats these days....
    A quick google suggests you are in error. If people are not wearng them, no one would be selling them....
    I had no idea E Nesbitt was still a fashion influence.

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 21,966
    Jonathan said:

    daodao said:

    A successful VoNC is the only way to avoid a hard "no deal" Brexit if May's deal fails to be passed, but could lead to one of many different outcomes, as outlined in the thread header. The later it is held, the more difficult it will be to create an alternative government in time to suspend/revoke A50, especially if it leads to a GE, as the clock is ticking.

    Hopefully, May will procrastinate as long as possible, because IMO it is important that the UK formally leaves the EU at 2300 on 29/3/19.

    Brinkmanship is utterly reckless.
    Criminal more like.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 11,253
    matt said:

    Roger said:

    Another good article. i heard on radio a discussion about how social media had changed the way we behave and how for the first time it feels like we the citizen have power. The effect has been to make people angrier and the commentator predicted that this would lead to the citizens of many more countries following the French model and taking to the streets.

    I found the piece convincing and attractive. Perhaps the time has come to stop predicting what might happen and instead get involved by going over the heads of our rotting political class. So my prediction this coming year is that we the people will start asserting ourselves.

    Who was the commentator and what is their track record for accuracy?

    Edit: it’s also historic nonsense, look at 1848 for example.

    You might find it attractive and therefore convincing but how much online bile and stupidity is transferred to a face to face conversation. [read Decca Aitkenhead in the Times on people who think that life can be ring-fenced in the manner of a Facebook page for a on-point conversation]
    'Foreign correspondents look ahead'. 5 of them chaired by Lyse Doucet. Well worth listening to. 'The power of the people is greater than the people in power' approx 33 minutes in though I'd recommend it all. Listenfor Jon Sopel's favourite Trump tweet."My gut tells me more than anyone's brain'"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m0001s0q
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 21,966
    Roger said:

    Another good article. i heard on radio a discussion about how social media had changed the way we behave and how for the first time it feels like we the citizen have power. The effect has been to make people angrier and the commentator predicted that this would lead to the citizens of many more countries following the French model and taking to the streets.

    I found the piece convincing and attractive. Perhaps the time has come to stop predicting what might happen and instead get involved by going over the heads of our rotting political class. So my prediction this coming year is that we the people will start asserting ourselves.

    Bring out the tumbrils
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 8,917

    Jonathan said:

    The MPs will reject the deal, they will reject myriad other things. It’s the job of the PM to find the thing that they can vote for. May currently doesn’t want to do that and it is unclear who else can. So it’s back to May to lead us over the cliff or to fire up her imagination and have an original thought of her own.

    The odds of the cliff are looking good.

    Yep, for May the absolute, non-negotiable priority - the one guiding principle - is to end freedom of movement for UK and EU citizens. She will do whatever it takes to ensure that happens. It is the only thin she truly believes in. This suits Corbyn, too; so if May's deal falls it will be No Deal.

    Yes, I think that is right. May believes that stopping people's freedom to move in search of a better life is the only benefit of Brexit. She clearly doesn't believe in the rest.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 21,966

    Jonathan said:

    Classy MM. I’m just disappointed that you’ve fallen for it. You’ve clearly made your bed. Hopefully all will be well. But she’s taken us down a dangerous path, it could have been avoided, it’s yours to own either way now.

    I wish we were elsewhere. But if it is an ill-advised poorly-prepared No Deal or May's Shit Deal, I have to go with May's Shit Deal. But all involved with getting us to this point should be removed from any power and influence forthwith.

    The alternative is an ill-conceived wish-list of Not Brexit. At least I'm confonting reality and making unpalatable choices. We had a vote to Leave. We need to honour that. The risk to democracy of not doing so is large and troubling.

    Again, the people shouting loudest about the risks of No Deal Brexit are those Remainers who could prevent it.
    I would rather take No Deal than go with May's despicable turncoat dog's breakfast mockery of a supposed deal.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 11,253

    Mr. Roger, I think it emerged a couple of months ago, but Miss Plato actually passed away around June/July. She was ill. As you say, she wasn't very old.

    What a shame. Do you know if she'd been ill for long?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 18,347
    daodao said:

    Jonathan said:

    You know when an EU nation does something silly and needs a package from the EU to bail it out. The EU comes up with some strict terms, costs and a technocratic leader is appointed to force the medicine through the national parliament as the only way

    It’s ironic that is where Brexit has taken us and even more ironic that half the Leavers are cheering it along.

    After 2300 on 29/3/18, it will not be the EU's business and the gauleiters Minister-President Herr Juncker and Reichskanzlerin Frau Merkel can be ignored.
    You're certainly not a good advert for the intelligence of Leave voters.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 21,966

    Mr. Root, I had wondered (and mentioned here at the time) if she was alright, because her Twitter account just stopped posting (NB it was still up, not suspended, but inactive).

    There was a Guy? called Financier who used to post on here who tried to help out Ms Plato, I think she had money worries and he did a good job for her.
    Not so sure , he was a fantasist, certainly going by his posts. She had property and ended up sorting out some kind of remortgage I believe.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 18,347

    If there is to be a general election I think that the old boundaries will be in force. The new proposed boundaries have yet to be voted through by Parliament.

    I thought the vote was due to have taken place by now, but it hasn't. Maybe there was something else on?
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 3,695
    edited December 2018
    daodao said:

    Most of the time most MPs will do the thing that is most likely to give them most chance of remaining an MP. From here, for Tory MPs that means voting to ensure that the UK leaves the EU on 29th March 2019 and for Labour MPs it is making sure to do what Jeremy tells them to do. Thus, a government led by Theresa May will take us out of the EU on 29th March 2019. The only issue is whether it will be under her deal or No Deal. May would prefer the former, Corbyn the latter. It could be that Jeremy is the one who gets his way.

    Good for JC, particularly if he can in future plausibly claim not to have been involved, so his hands would be "clean".
    Yes blaming the opposition usually works out well.Even when the policies are similar
    1992 and 2008 are perfect examples.
  • Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    The MPs will reject the deal, they will reject myriad other things. It’s the job of the PM to find the thing that they can vote for. May currently doesn’t want to do that and it is unclear who else can. So it’s back to May to lead us over the cliff or to fire up her imagination and have an original thought of her own.

    The odds of the cliff are looking good.

    Yep, for May the absolute, non-negotiable priority - the one guiding principle - is to end freedom of movement for UK and EU citizens. She will do whatever it takes to ensure that happens. It is the only thin she truly believes in. This suits Corbyn, too; so if May's deal falls it will be No Deal.

    Yes, I think that is right. May believes that stopping people's freedom to move in search of a better life is the only benefit of Brexit. She clearly doesn't believe in the rest.

    Yep, for May the only benefit of Brexit is the one that allows us to stop dreadful foreign types from coming here. She will sacrifice anything and everything to achieve that.

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 21,966
    Roger said:

    Mr. Roger, I think it emerged a couple of months ago, but Miss Plato actually passed away around June/July. She was ill. As you say, she wasn't very old.

    What a shame. Do you know if she'd been ill for long?
    Someone recently contacted her e-mail and her brother replied just saying she had passed away , think it was July.
  • daodao said:

    Most of the time most MPs will do the thing that is most likely to give them most chance of remaining an MP. From here, for Tory MPs that means voting to ensure that the UK leaves the EU on 29th March 2019 and for Labour MPs it is making sure to do what Jeremy tells them to do. Thus, a government led by Theresa May will take us out of the EU on 29th March 2019. The only issue is whether it will be under her deal or No Deal. May would prefer the former, Corbyn the latter. It could be that Jeremy is the one who gets his way.

    Good for JC, particularly if he can in future plausibly claim not to have been involved, so his hands would be "clean".

    No Deal is a fantasy that does seem to appeal mostly to the kind of wealthy, privileged people who will suffer few of its consequences.

  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 2,114

    "For example, what would the DUP like best? My guess is that they would be very happy to have another general election to see the clock tick down on a no-deal Brexit and will vote accordingly"

    But that General Election is also likely to unravel the unique arithmetic that gives the DUP their leverage. What they would like best is for a new Tory leader who will be alligned better with their own views on Brexit, whilst continuing to send pork by the shipload to NI. So no deal Brexit, May stepping down and a Leaver taking over will be just fine and dandy with the DUP.

    Colluding in a no deal Brexit would be extremely damaging for the DUP in NI where opposition to that course of action is probably stronger than anywhere else in the UK. Can't see them welcoming it let alone actively pursuing it.
  • tysontyson Posts: 4,536

    Mr. Root, I had wondered (and mentioned here at the time) if she was alright, because her Twitter account just stopped posting (NB it was still up, not suspended, but inactive).

    There was a Guy? called Financier who used to post on here who tried to help out Ms Plato, I think she had money worries and he did a good job for her.
    I can remember Plato posting that she had befriended Financier....he was elderly and she said he was no longer with us...

    Such sad news again about Plato.

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 8,520

    daodao said:

    Jonathan said:

    You know when an EU nation does something silly and needs a package from the EU to bail it out. The EU comes up with some strict terms, costs and a technocratic leader is appointed to force the medicine through the national parliament as the only way

    It’s ironic that is where Brexit has taken us and even more ironic that half the Leavers are cheering it along.

    After 2300 on 29/3/18, it will not be the EU's business and the gauleiters Minister-President Herr Juncker and Reichskanzlerin Frau Merkel can be ignored.

    The fantasies of a Little Englander. No wonder the world is laughing at us.

    Indeed - daodao appears to have overdosed on Dad's Army repeats. Deeply embarassing.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 8,520
    OllyT said:

    "For example, what would the DUP like best? My guess is that they would be very happy to have another general election to see the clock tick down on a no-deal Brexit and will vote accordingly"

    But that General Election is also likely to unravel the unique arithmetic that gives the DUP their leverage. What they would like best is for a new Tory leader who will be alligned better with their own views on Brexit, whilst continuing to send pork by the shipload to NI. So no deal Brexit, May stepping down and a Leaver taking over will be just fine and dandy with the DUP.

    Colluding in a no deal Brexit would be extremely damaging for the DUP in NI where opposition to that course of action is probably stronger than anywhere else in the UK. Can't see them welcoming it let alone actively pursuing it.
    But they are actively pursuing it!
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited December 2018
    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    The MPs will reject the deal, they will reject myriad other things. It’s the job of the PM to find the thing that they can vote for. May currently doesn’t want to do that and it is unclear who else can. So it’s back to May to lead us over the cliff or to fire up her imagination and have an original thought of her own.

    The odds of the cliff are looking good.

    Yep, for May the absolute, non-negotiable priority - the one guiding principle - is to end freedom of movement for UK and EU citizens. She will do whatever it takes to ensure that happens. It is the only thin she truly believes in. This suits Corbyn, too; so if May's deal falls it will be No Deal.

    Yes, I think that is right. May believes that stopping people's freedom to move in search of a better life is the only benefit of Brexit. She clearly doesn't believe in the rest.
    Building our own Berlin Wall? I wonder if Dover customs or those at the tunnel exit will be renamed Checkpoint Charlie?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 25,603

    "For example, what would the DUP like best? My guess is that they would be very happy to have another general election to see the clock tick down on a no-deal Brexit and will vote accordingly"

    But that General Election is also likely to unravel the unique arithmetic that gives the DUP their leverage. What they would like best is for a new Tory leader who will be alligned better with their own views on Brexit, whilst continuing to send pork by the shipload to NI. So no deal Brexit, May stepping down and a Leaver taking over will be just fine and dandy with the DUP.

    I think that this is a very important point that is regularly given far less attention than it should be. When was the last time anyone cared what those troublesome MPs from NI thought? 1979?

    Who can seriously doubt that the backstop would have been swept through with a plethora of platitudes and assurances for the greater good if May had got her 50+ majority. Given it is nearly 40 years since this last happened what are the odds on such an eventuality happening again after a GE?

    The DUP have by happenstance found themselves with real power at exactly the time that they need it to protect their position in the Union. Whether they are doing that successfully or sensibly is not the issue: the point is that they are players. They would be crazy to give that up. Therefore they will not vote for a VonC unless it is certain to stop Mays deal coming into force. And even then...
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 8,663
    daodao said:


    After 2300 on 29/3/18, it will not be the EU's business and the gauleiters Minister-President Herr Juncker and Reichskanzlerin Frau Merkel can be ignored.

    "Bundeskanzlerin". But we've had this conversation before.

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 21,966
    tyson said:

    Mr. Root, I had wondered (and mentioned here at the time) if she was alright, because her Twitter account just stopped posting (NB it was still up, not suspended, but inactive).

    There was a Guy? called Financier who used to post on here who tried to help out Ms Plato, I think she had money worries and he did a good job for her.
    I can remember Plato posting that she had befriended Financier....he was elderly and she said he was no longer with us...

    Such sad news again about Plato.

    He was always posting about travelling abroad, meeting cabinet ministers and the titans of industry, hardly made out he was elderly and frail, quite the opposite.
  • I sniff a Tory leadership contest ...
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 2,920
    I do not get the remainer opposition to the deal.

    The treaty does 3 things. (1) Settles the bill. (2) Protects citizens' rights. (3) Guarantees an open border in Ireland.

    Number 3 is problematic for leavers, yes, I see that. Because it steers the FTA to one of close alignment absent a high tech solution to the border.

    But for remainers? What on earth is the problem with any of it? Do they not want to settle our liabilities? Do they not want to protect citizens' rights? Do they not want a close future relationship which ensures an open border in Ireland? It's a yes to all three, surely.

    So what is going on here?

    When pressed, the principal objection of remainers appears to be that we are 'giving up our voice' in EU decision making. Que? Of course we are! We're leaving. The clear and absurd inference is that they will only support a deal that retains our rights of membership. In other words, for them, brexit means remain.

    C'mon. It's a nonsense.
  • daodaodaodao Posts: 821

    daodao said:

    Jonathan said:

    You know when an EU nation does something silly and needs a package from the EU to bail it out. The EU comes up with some strict terms, costs and a technocratic leader is appointed to force the medicine through the national parliament as the only way

    It’s ironic that is where Brexit has taken us and even more ironic that half the Leavers are cheering it along.

    After 2300 on 29/3/18, it will not be the EU's business and the gauleiters Minister-President Herr Juncker and Reichskanzlerin Frau Merkel can be ignored.

    The fantasies of a Little Englander. No wonder the world is laughing at us.

    Indeed - daodao appears to have overdosed on Dad's Army repeats. Deeply embarassing.
    I used "flowery" descriptions to make the point that the EU's leaders are naturally acting in their (rather than the UK's) interest and that the EU is now clearly a vehicle for Germany to promote its own interests behind a mask.
This discussion has been closed.