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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Just because Corbyn’s LAB almost closed a massive poll gap at

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited December 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Just because Corbyn’s LAB almost closed a massive poll gap at GE17 is no guarantee that it’ll happen again

The extraordinary performance at the last election of Labour continues to dominate thinking about the next one with an assumption in many quarters that because the party was able to come from a huge poll deficit to within 2.5% then the same will happen again.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 34,434
    edited December 2018
    First - As in the first Die Hard movie is the best Christmas movie ever.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 28,798
    Labour also underestimate the boost they got from the first couple of weeks of the campaign when Crosby was basically saturating the airwaves with the message that the alternative to May was Labour.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 1,876
    I still think the inflated vote for Labour in 2017 was the result of May`s attempt to go for an outright dictatorship. She achieved it, but only by bribing the DUP. And then made a complete and utter horlicks of her dictatorship. I don`t think the country is keen on dictatorship of any kind, neither May-Tory nor Corbyn-Socialist.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 18,648
    Of course it won't. Not least because the people being polled already remember that they voted Labour last time, even though they started the campaign saying that they wouldn't.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 18,648
    FPT
    viewcode said:

    The TL:DR version. Politicians are bad, the media are worse, we are fucked.

    Yup, seems about right.
    He's wrong about the LibDems, who actually did badly in the local elections (i.e. no progress at all) outside of a tiny handful of very remainy enclaves. And in Italy there has always been a significant vote for a right wing strongman. Lega is capturing this; previously much of it went to Berlusconi.
  • felixfelix Posts: 8,666
    Labour will make massive gains in Scotland cos Justine 24 has a feeling it will happen. Forget the polls!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 25,690
    Who is this mythical beast who will magically make the Tories more popular? May is about as popular as Tories get and she is one of the worst campaigners to ever lead a major party. I agree with Mike that Labour are being complacent if they assume the 2017 effect will be repeated but the Tories seriously lack quality too. Absolutely no one in the present cabinet is fit to wipe Cameron’s boots as a campaigner. It’s a problem.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 25,690
    felix said:

    Labour will make massive gains in Scotland cos Justine 24 has a feeling it will happen. Forget the polls!

    Labour may well make some gains in Scotland simply by standing still as the massive SNP balloon slowly deflates worn down by the cares of office. But the days of 40+ Scottish Labour MPs are not coming back any time soon. The party north of the border is in a terrible state, still bearing the horrific scars of Brown’s “leadership”.

  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 5,154
    DavidL said:

    felix said:

    Labour will make massive gains in Scotland cos Justine 24 has a feeling it will happen. Forget the polls!

    Labour may well make some gains in Scotland simply by standing still as the massive SNP balloon slowly deflates worn down by the cares of office. But the days of 40+ Scottish Labour MPs are not coming back any time soon. The party north of the border is in a terrible state, still bearing the horrific scars of Brown’s “leadership”.

    Labour could make gains South of the border by standing still also. I think that's their best chance of winning, Corbyn is unlikely to improve much on 40%, but the Tory vote could easily drop by more with Brexit, govt fatigue and infighting.

    My suspicion is that Labour will need some kind of Brexit offer, probably a second vote of some kind.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,129
    felix said:

    Labour will make massive gains in Scotland cos Justine 24 has a feeling it will happen. Forget the polls!

    There may be situations where they make gains but the overall vote share drops, the unionist vote will settle on who is best to defeat the SNP locally
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 25,690
    rkrkrk said:

    DavidL said:

    felix said:

    Labour will make massive gains in Scotland cos Justine 24 has a feeling it will happen. Forget the polls!

    Labour may well make some gains in Scotland simply by standing still as the massive SNP balloon slowly deflates worn down by the cares of office. But the days of 40+ Scottish Labour MPs are not coming back any time soon. The party north of the border is in a terrible state, still bearing the horrific scars of Brown’s “leadership”.

    Labour could make gains South of the border by standing still also. I think that's their best chance of winning, Corbyn is unlikely to improve much on 40%, but the Tory vote could easily drop by more with Brexit, govt fatigue and infighting.

    My suspicion is that Labour will need some kind of Brexit offer, probably a second vote of some kind.
    Hard to say. It is possible that Brexit will be largely done and dusted by the next election. What I do think will happen more generally is that Labour’s offer will be examined a lot more critically than it was in 2017 when no one took the idea of them forming a government very seriously. Having got so close that will not happen again. They will definitely be a possible government and will be treated accordingly.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,595
    DavidL said:

    Who is this mythical beast who will magically make the Tories more popular? May is about as popular as Tories get and she is one of the worst campaigners to ever lead a major party. I agree with Mike that Labour are being complacent if they assume the 2017 effect will be repeated but the Tories seriously lack quality too. Absolutely no one in the present cabinet is fit to wipe Cameron’s boots as a campaigner. It’s a problem.

    The big question is.. who was the moron who came up with the idea of dumping pensioner guarantees and winter fuel allowance etc. If that policy had not been in the manifesto, May would have had her comfortable majority. (IMHO)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 18,631
    DavidL said:

    rkrkrk said:

    DavidL said:

    felix said:

    Labour will make massive gains in Scotland cos Justine 24 has a feeling it will happen. Forget the polls!

    Labour may well make some gains in Scotland simply by standing still as the massive SNP balloon slowly deflates worn down by the cares of office. But the days of 40+ Scottish Labour MPs are not coming back any time soon. The party north of the border is in a terrible state, still bearing the horrific scars of Brown’s “leadership”.

    Labour could make gains South of the border by standing still also. I think that's their best chance of winning, Corbyn is unlikely to improve much on 40%, but the Tory vote could easily drop by more with Brexit, govt fatigue and infighting.

    My suspicion is that Labour will need some kind of Brexit offer, probably a second vote of some kind.
    Hard to say. It is possible that Brexit will be largely done and dusted by the next election. What I do think will happen more generally is that Labour’s offer will be examined a lot more critically than it was in 2017 when no one took the idea of them forming a government very seriously. Having got so close that will not happen again. They will definitely be a possible government and will be treated accordingly.
    That on its own will not be enough however (remember Purnell's insistence scrutiny of Tory policies would deliver Brown the election?) unless either:

    1) The Tories have a more popular and plausible policy offering, which was not the case last time, or:

    2) The policies Labour put forward are demonstrably dishonest and uncosted - which admittedly was the case last time but was no help to the Tories as their manifesto was scarcely better.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 25,690

    DavidL said:

    Who is this mythical beast who will magically make the Tories more popular? May is about as popular as Tories get and she is one of the worst campaigners to ever lead a major party. I agree with Mike that Labour are being complacent if they assume the 2017 effect will be repeated but the Tories seriously lack quality too. Absolutely no one in the present cabinet is fit to wipe Cameron’s boots as a campaigner. It’s a problem.

    The big question is.. who was the moron who came up with the idea of dumping pensioner guarantees and winter fuel allowance etc. If that policy had not been in the manifesto, May would have had her comfortable majority. (IMHO)
    That certainly didn’t help. The fiscal situation will be better than it was in 2017 with a much lower deficit and less pressure to find cuts. Of course that also cuts both ways in that it will be harder to accuse Labour of fiscal irresponsibility in a telling way.

    At the moment I would make Labour slight favourites to be the largest party. The Tories have exhausted themselves bickering about Brexit, they are deeply divided and they will have been in power a decade without ever having a really solid majority. They look very vulnerable to me.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 18,631
    This seems excessive:

    Hammersmith stabbing leads to 39 attempted murder arrests
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-46719897

    Was the victim Julius Caesar or was he found in a colony of Brazilian electricians or something?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 25,690
    ydoethur said:

    This seems excessive:

    Hammersmith stabbing leads to 39 attempted murder arrests
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-46719897

    Was the victim Julius Caesar or was he found in a colony of Brazilian electricians or something?

    Doesn’t sound the most popular victim. Presumably gang related.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,595
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Who is this mythical beast who will magically make the Tories more popular? May is about as popular as Tories get and she is one of the worst campaigners to ever lead a major party. I agree with Mike that Labour are being complacent if they assume the 2017 effect will be repeated but the Tories seriously lack quality too. Absolutely no one in the present cabinet is fit to wipe Cameron’s boots as a campaigner. It’s a problem.

    The big question is.. who was the moron who came up with the idea of dumping pensioner guarantees and winter fuel allowance etc. If that policy had not been in the manifesto, May would have had her comfortable majority. (IMHO)
    That certainly didn’t help. The fiscal situation will be better than it was in 2017 with a much lower deficit and less pressure to find cuts. Of course that also cuts both ways in that it will be harder to accuse Labour of fiscal irresponsibility in a telling way.

    At the moment I would make Labour slight favourites to be the largest party. The Tories have exhausted themselves bickering about Brexit, they are deeply divided and they will have been in power a decade without ever having a really solid majority. They look very vulnerable to me.
    Really? People have had a few more years to look at Corbyn. The LD's are not anywhere and I am not sure that however split the Tories are, the alternative is unpalatable to the majority of voters. Interesting times ahead..
  • As a tactical LAB voter in one of the tightest marginals in the country I will not use vote next time to help the Jew-hating pro-Brexiteer.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 18,648
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    rkrkrk said:

    DavidL said:

    felix said:

    Labour will make massive gains in Scotland cos Justine 24 has a feeling it will happen. Forget the polls!

    Labour may well make some gains in Scotland simply by standing still as the massive SNP balloon slowly deflates worn down by the cares of office. But the days of 40+ Scottish Labour MPs are not coming back any time soon. The party north of the border is in a terrible state, still bearing the horrific scars of Brown’s “leadership”.

    Labour could make gains South of the border by standing still also. I think that's their best chance of winning, Corbyn is unlikely to improve much on 40%, but the Tory vote could easily drop by more with Brexit, govt fatigue and infighting.

    My suspicion is that Labour will need some kind of Brexit offer, probably a second vote of some kind.
    Hard to say. It is possible that Brexit will be largely done and dusted by the next election. What I do think will happen more generally is that Labour’s offer will be examined a lot more critically than it was in 2017 when no one took the idea of them forming a government very seriously. Having got so close that will not happen again. They will definitely be a possible government and will be treated accordingly.
    That on its own will not be enough however (remember Purnell's insistence scrutiny of Tory policies would deliver Brown the election?) unless either:

    1) The Tories have a more popular and plausible policy offering, which was not the case last time, or:

    2) The policies Labour put forward are demonstrably dishonest and uncosted - which admittedly was the case last time but was no help to the Tories as their manifesto was scarcely better.
    If the Tories try to play the economy card, Labour can just point to Brexit
  • The big question is.. who was the moron who came up with the idea of dumping pensioner guarantees and winter fuel allowance etc. If that policy had not been in the manifesto, May would have had her comfortable majority. (IMHO)

    Somebody who thought the win was nailed on thinking about good governance instead of politics. I mean objectively, these are terrible policies that need dumping. Likewise the dementia tax stuff: They looked at what needed doing and spent some political capital trying to get a mandate for it.

    As OGH says, they won't make that mistake again.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,595

    As a tactical LAB voter in one of the tightest marginals in the country I will not use vote next time to help the Jew-hating pro-Brexiteer.

    If Corbyn has gone by then ???
  • mattmatt Posts: 2,948

    As a tactical LAB voter in one of the tightest marginals in the country I will not use vote next time to help the Jew-hating pro-Brexiteer.

    Could you mention to the LD hierarchy that it would be helpful to have some policies other than Europe and a leader who is narcoleptic. Cheers.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,177
    ydoethur said:

    This seems excessive:

    Hammersmith stabbing leads to 39 attempted murder arrests
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-46719897

    Was the victim Julius Caesar or was he found in a colony of Brazilian electricians or something?

    That damned Murder on the Orient Express Re-enactment Society again......
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 3,526
    So what's Javid's master plan for the petits bateaux? Is he going to light them up with a 20mm Oerlikon as soon as they clear the French 12nm limit?
  • daodaodaodao Posts: 821

    As a tactical LAB voter in one of the tightest marginals in the country I will not use vote next time to help the Jew-hating pro-Brexiteer.

    I don't think the general population gives a damn about JC's perceived views regarding Jews.

    As for JC being a tacit pro-Brexiteer, that is likely to have different effects in different constituencies, and the overall net effect may be minimal. Labour would lose a lot of votes (and seats) if it came off the fence about Brexit (in either direction). Hopefully, there won't be a GE before Brexit, so this may be irrelevant anyway.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 25,690
    Dura_Ace said:

    So what's Javid's master plan for the petits bateaux? Is he going to light them up with a 20mm Oerlikon as soon as they clear the French 12nm limit?

    It’s the moral thing to do apparently. Discourages others.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 9,074

    As a tactical LAB voter in one of the tightest marginals in the country I will not use vote next time to help the Jew-hating pro-Brexiteer.

    I wouldn't agree with that description, but what new did we learn about between 2017 and now? His support of Palestine and Brexit voting record were well known at the GE.

    Jezza doesn't need a 2017 surge as he starts in a different place. Remember when the debate on here was whether May's majority would be 100 or 200?

    No Labour government, least of all a minority one, would pass a Brexit like May's or indeed much of a Brexit at all, even with Jezza at its head.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,177
    288 seats out of 350. That's how you win a landslide, PM.....

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-46718393
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    edited December 2018
    There is of course no guarantee it won’t happen again either. That said, if the current polls are correct and anything like those when the next election is called, it doesn’t need to happen again. Labour are much closer to the Tories despite the damaging rows over misogyny and antisemitism.

    Hopefully the Tories won’t shoot themselves in the foot with electorally toxic issues like fox hunting and last election’s social care policy. Last election however, the biggest mistake was surely giving Labour a free ride on their policies many of which were economically disastrous. Tuition fees were undoubtedly popular but McDonnell reneged on that as soon as the election was over. A much less indolent Chancellor than Hammond and a much better campaigner than May would have spent plenty of time exposing those ridiculous policies. Even Abbott’s gaffe on policing was only picked up by the press rather than the Tories.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 18,631

    288 seats out of 350. That's how you win a landslide, PM.....

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-46718393

    With all her faults, and greatly though I dislike Corbyn, I don't think May would resort to those sort of tactics to win an election, and I certainly hope she wouldn't.

    Besides, the really superb landslide was this one:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_Iraqi_presidential_referendum
  • Dura_Ace said:

    So what's Javid's master plan for the petits bateaux? Is he going to light them up with a 20mm Oerlikon as soon as they clear the French 12nm limit?

    Will Javid have any ships at his disposal now Gavin Williamson wants to go back east of Suez and west of Jamaica? Add in the one "deterring" the Russians somewhere near Crimea and that's pretty much the entire Royal Navy accounted for.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/12/29/britain-become-true-global-player-post-brexit-new-military-bases/
  • RogerRoger Posts: 11,346

    As a tactical LAB voter in one of the tightest marginals in the country I will not use vote next time to help the Jew-hating pro-Brexiteer.

    I've not heard anything that suggests to me that Corbyn hates Jews though like a lot of us he clearly has issues with the State of Israel. But as a party leader who has done nothing to halt the aspirations-often racist- of the Brexiteers he's also not going to get my vote either.

  • Labour don’t need to close the gap. It’s already closed. They do, however, need to do relatively better than they did last time and they have shown no sign they know how to do that by themselves. Fortunately for them the stories look set to help them.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 11,346
    edited December 2018
    Dura_Ace said:

    So what's Javid's master plan for the petits bateaux? Is he going to light them up with a 20mm Oerlikon as soon as they clear the French 12nm limit?

    ....... I heard the devastating news that a small boat containing 4 foreigners was heading towards the Kent coast when I woke up.

    I imagine the government is calling a Cobra meeting urgently
  • Good morning, everyone.

    Things still remain very unclear. The future is difficult to see. Not unlike when the Dark Side veiled the foresight of the Jedi Council.

    We must be wary. And stay away from sand.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 12,183

    Dura_Ace said:

    So what's Javid's master plan for the petits bateaux? Is he going to light them up with a 20mm Oerlikon as soon as they clear the French 12nm limit?

    Will Javid have any ships at his disposal now Gavin Williamson wants to go back east of Suez and west of Jamaica? Add in the one "deterring" the Russians somewhere near Crimea and that's pretty much the entire Royal Navy accounted for.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/12/29/britain-become-true-global-player-post-brexit-new-military-bases/
    Where’s your Dunkirk spirit ?
    I’m sure we could commandeer a couple of fishing boats.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 18,631
    Roger said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    So what's Javid's master plan for the petits bateaux? Is he going to light them up with a 20mm Oerlikon as soon as they clear the French 12nm limit?

    ....... I heard the devastating news that a small boat containing 4 foreigners was heading towards the Kent coast when I woke up.

    I imagine the government is calling a Cobra meeting urgently
    Well, that would be appropriate given they're getting bitten by it...
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 23,584

    As a tactical LAB voter in one of the tightest marginals in the country I will not use vote next time to help the Jew-hating pro-Brexiteer.

    If I was being uncharitable...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 18,631
    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    So what's Javid's master plan for the petits bateaux? Is he going to light them up with a 20mm Oerlikon as soon as they clear the French 12nm limit?

    Will Javid have any ships at his disposal now Gavin Williamson wants to go back east of Suez and west of Jamaica? Add in the one "deterring" the Russians somewhere near Crimea and that's pretty much the entire Royal Navy accounted for.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/12/29/britain-become-true-global-player-post-brexit-new-military-bases/
    Where’s your Dunkirk spirit ?
    I’m sure we could commandeer a couple of fishing boats.

    Are you saying we should just trawl for our resources? Surely it would be better to give the immigrants some smacks?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 23,584

    288 seats out of 350. That's how you win a landslide, PM.....

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-46718393

    Is she related to Tulip Siddiq?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 11,346
    Interesting interview with David Petraeus. When asked whether the UK would be better reversing Brexit he paused and quoted Francis Urquart "you might say that..... " So even prominent Americans think we're Sid and Doris
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 23,584
    Roger said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    So what's Javid's master plan for the petits bateaux? Is he going to light them up with a 20mm Oerlikon as soon as they clear the French 12nm limit?

    ....... I heard the devastating news that a small boat containing 4 foreigners was heading towards the Kent coast when I woke up.

    I imagine the government is calling a Cobra meeting urgently
    There are rules in place to manage asylum claims. France is, as far as I know (although you will have a better view) a safe and tolerant country.

    But they have decided that the rules shouldn’t apply to them

    Why should that kind of attitude to the law be welcome in our country?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 12,183
    In truth, the next election is as unpredictable as what happens next with Brexit.

    None of the three English parties are impressing, and that doesn’t look set to change much in the next twelve months. Given an election in that timeframe, the only way the Tory manifesto will be significantly better will be that there won’t be much in it.

    Out behind that, we’ll likely have three new leaders, and a whole new post Brexit politics (if Brexit is somehow averted, there will have been an election within that twelve months).
    And none of the three parties seem much prepared for that, either.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 12,183
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    So what's Javid's master plan for the petits bateaux? Is he going to light them up with a 20mm Oerlikon as soon as they clear the French 12nm limit?

    Will Javid have any ships at his disposal now Gavin Williamson wants to go back east of Suez and west of Jamaica? Add in the one "deterring" the Russians somewhere near Crimea and that's pretty much the entire Royal Navy accounted for.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/12/29/britain-become-true-global-player-post-brexit-new-military-bases/
    Where’s your Dunkirk spirit ?
    I’m sure we could commandeer a couple of fishing boats.

    Are you saying we should just trawl for our resources? Surely it would be better to give the immigrants some smacks?
    There might be a net benefit from such a policy.
    Some would fall for it hook, line and sinker.

  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 3,526

    Dura_Ace said:

    So what's Javid's master plan for the petits bateaux? Is he going to light them up with a 20mm Oerlikon as soon as they clear the French 12nm limit?

    Will Javid have any ships at his disposal now Gavin Williamson wants to go back east of Suez and west of Jamaica? Add in the one "deterring" the Russians somewhere near Crimea and that's pretty much the entire Royal Navy accounted for.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/12/29/britain-become-true-global-player-post-brexit-new-military-bases/
    All defence cuts are mother's milk to tories but The Fireplace Salesman has come up with a wizard wheeze that involves running the RN at 5-7% under its 'liability' (ie the number of rates and officers it should have). This means two T23s can't be crewed so even though they are nominally in service they are actually held in a state of 'low readiness' (ie going to rack and ruin) in Pompey. This saves about 200m/year in operating cost and means they will soon be so fucked it won't be worth doing the LIFEX refit on them.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 11,346
    Charles said:

    Roger said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    So what's Javid's master plan for the petits bateaux? Is he going to light them up with a 20mm Oerlikon as soon as they clear the French 12nm limit?

    ....... I heard the devastating news that a small boat containing 4 foreigners was heading towards the Kent coast when I woke up.

    I imagine the government is calling a Cobra meeting urgently
    There are rules in place to manage asylum claims. France is, as far as I know (although you will have a better view) a safe and tolerant country.

    But they have decided that the rules shouldn’t apply to them

    Why should that kind of attitude to the law be welcome in our country?
    I imagine they had more interesting things to do than fill out endless forms over the Christmas holidays. That's the problem with these fun loving Europeans. They just don't understand the concept of always being miserable.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 12,183
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    So what's Javid's master plan for the petits bateaux? Is he going to light them up with a 20mm Oerlikon as soon as they clear the French 12nm limit?

    Will Javid have any ships at his disposal now Gavin Williamson wants to go back east of Suez and west of Jamaica? Add in the one "deterring" the Russians somewhere near Crimea and that's pretty much the entire Royal Navy accounted for.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/12/29/britain-become-true-global-player-post-brexit-new-military-bases/
    Where’s your Dunkirk spirit ?
    I’m sure we could commandeer a couple of fishing boats.

    Are you saying we should just trawl for our resources? Surely it would be better to give the immigrants some smacks?
    But if I catch your drift, you are just trolling...

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 18,631
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    So what's Javid's master plan for the petits bateaux? Is he going to light them up with a 20mm Oerlikon as soon as they clear the French 12nm limit?

    Will Javid have any ships at his disposal now Gavin Williamson wants to go back east of Suez and west of Jamaica? Add in the one "deterring" the Russians somewhere near Crimea and that's pretty much the entire Royal Navy accounted for.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/12/29/britain-become-true-global-player-post-brexit-new-military-bases/
    Where’s your Dunkirk spirit ?
    I’m sure we could commandeer a couple of fishing boats.

    Are you saying we should just trawl for our resources? Surely it would be better to give the immigrants some smacks?
    But if I catch your drift, you are just trolling...

    Haw hawser!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 12,183
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    So what's Javid's master plan for the petits bateaux? Is he going to light them up with a 20mm Oerlikon as soon as they clear the French 12nm limit?

    Will Javid have any ships at his disposal now Gavin Williamson wants to go back east of Suez and west of Jamaica? Add in the one "deterring" the Russians somewhere near Crimea and that's pretty much the entire Royal Navy accounted for.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/12/29/britain-become-true-global-player-post-brexit-new-military-bases/
    Where’s your Dunkirk spirit ?
    I’m sure we could commandeer a couple of fishing boats.

    Are you saying we should just trawl for our resources? Surely it would be better to give the immigrants some smacks?
    But if I catch your drift, you are just trolling...

    Haw hawser!
    Anyhow, time to cut bait.
    Have a good morning.

  • RogerRoger Posts: 11,346
    Point of Order. Is there a reason why the purples on the extreme right with zero MPs is being shown when for example The Monster Raving Loonies are not?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 9,074
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    So what's Javid's master plan for the petits bateaux? Is he going to light them up with a 20mm Oerlikon as soon as they clear the French 12nm limit?

    Will Javid have any ships at his disposal now Gavin Williamson wants to go back east of Suez and west of Jamaica? Add in the one "deterring" the Russians somewhere near Crimea and that's pretty much the entire Royal Navy accounted for.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/12/29/britain-become-true-global-player-post-brexit-new-military-bases/
    Where’s your Dunkirk spirit ?
    I’m sure we could commandeer a couple of fishing boats.

    Are you saying we should just trawl for our resources? Surely it would be better to give the immigrants some smacks?
    We should open our purse, it is the only seine way to cachelot.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 11,346
    A record number of applications for Irish passports this year.

    .........Get in there fast while stocks last
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 18,631
    Roger said:

    Point of Order. Is there a reason why the purples on the extreme right with zero MPs is being shown when for example The Monster Raving Loonies are not?

    There is such an obvious retort there...
  • Roger said:

    Point of Order. Is there a reason why the purples on the extreme right with zero MPs is being shown when for example The Monster Raving Loonies are not?

    It is an exit poll from the 2017 general election, where Ukip was defending one seat.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,595
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    So what's Javid's master plan for the petits bateaux? Is he going to light them up with a 20mm Oerlikon as soon as they clear the French 12nm limit?

    Will Javid have any ships at his disposal now Gavin Williamson wants to go back east of Suez and west of Jamaica? Add in the one "deterring" the Russians somewhere near Crimea and that's pretty much the entire Royal Navy accounted for.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/12/29/britain-become-true-global-player-post-brexit-new-military-bases/
    Where’s your Dunkirk spirit ?
    I’m sure we could commandeer a couple of fishing boats.

    Are you saying we should just trawl for our resources? Surely it would be better to give the immigrants some smacks?
    We should open our purse, it is the only seine way to cachelot.

    It would be a "drain" on our resources. Send for BoatyMcboatface
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 9,074
    Charles said:

    Roger said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    So what's Javid's master plan for the petits bateaux? Is he going to light them up with a 20mm Oerlikon as soon as they clear the French 12nm limit?

    ....... I heard the devastating news that a small boat containing 4 foreigners was heading towards the Kent coast when I woke up.

    I imagine the government is calling a Cobra meeting urgently
    There are rules in place to manage asylum claims. France is, as far as I know (although you will have a better view) a safe and tolerant country.

    But they have decided that the rules shouldn’t apply to them

    Why should that kind of attitude to the law be welcome in our country?
    Yes, it almost as if we should form a pan-continental union of sovereign states to deal with such issues as they affect all states. Any suggestions as to names?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 1,995
    OT, i’m spending NYE this year in Ulverston in Cumbria. Never been before and wasn’t impressed initially but the old town is lovely.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 11,346

    Roger said:

    Point of Order. Is there a reason why the purples on the extreme right with zero MPs is being shown when for example The Monster Raving Loonies are not?

    It is an exit poll from the 2017 general election, where Ukip was defending one seat.
    Thank you. I didn't realise they were defending a seat
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 9,074
    Roger said:

    A record number of applications for Irish passports this year.

    .........Get in there fast while stocks last

    Yes, an Irish passport is a very worthwhile asset. Right to vote and residence anywhere in the UK and the freedom of a continent.

    Sadly Dr Foxys Irish ancestors are rather too distant.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 12,457
    DavidL said:

    Who is this mythical beast who will magically make the Tories more popular? May is about as popular as Tories get and she is one of the worst campaigners to ever lead a major party. I agree with Mike that Labour are being complacent if they assume the 2017 effect will be repeated but the Tories seriously lack quality too. Absolutely no one in the present cabinet is fit to wipe Cameron’s boots as a campaigner. It’s a problem.

    I think that's about right. Because the Tory campaign last time was so awful, there's an assumption that the next one will be jolly good, but there are different ways to be awful and I'm not convinced that they've hit on any winners yet. I certainly agree that Labour can't complacently expect all to go smoothly either.

    Both Corbyn and Labour's manifesto will have pluses and minuses compared with 2017. Corbyn is now such a familiar figure that his exciting newcomer gloss has worn off even for younger voters (even though many still like him); conversely people are used to the idea that he might be a plausible PM, which many saw as outlandish in 2017. He's not dropped any real clangers for a long time (people didn't feel that possibly muttering "stupid woman" to himself after TM's panto performance was that unreasonable), which is why we still read stuff about what he said in a leftie magazine in 1974 etc. That's why the Tories are road-testing the idea that he's maybe not wicked, merely a frontman for the wicked - doesn't seem to be resonating, though.

    The manifesto was unicorn-rich and appealed for that reason in a landscape dominated by "life is grim, we promise little" messages. I agree it will get closer scrutiny next time. That said, it'll be hard to top the hatchet jobs attempted by the Mail and Sun last time - 12 pages each IIRC. I think Labour can afford to be fairly cautious with just a few highlighted issues - lefties will trust the leadership to deliver a fair amount of good stuff, and everyone else really just wants a serious alternative to the exhausted Tory shambles. The complete disappearance of funding problems is useful too - the idea that you can clear your debts by attracting lots of paying members has the charm of novelty in Britain, where increasingly all parties were funded by a few big donors.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,595
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Point of Order. Is there a reason why the purples on the extreme right with zero MPs is being shown when for example The Monster Raving Loonies are not?

    It is an exit poll from the 2017 general election, where Ukip was defending one seat.
    Thank you. I didn't realise they were defending a seat
    TSE will never forget it. Reckless lost his seat to the Conservatives
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 5,507
    Interesting to see us having selective immigration with a vengeance.

    We're open to anyone who is able to make the difficult journey (predominantly youngish and male) but also middle class enough to the have financial clout to pay a large sum of money to people traffickers.in Calais.

    The new demographic of the Labour Party.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 25,690

    OT, i’m spending NYE this year in Ulverston in Cumbria. Never been before and wasn’t impressed initially but the old town is lovely.

    I am looking like I am spending it in hospital which is a bit of a bore. My view is of another bit of white concrete opposite.
    No doubt the nurses will have a good selection of spirits ready for the bells. Possibly water with the water.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 5,507
    Dr Fox,

    My son, who lives and works in Copenhagen, has acquired an Irish passport. Just in case, those UK queues at European airports get too long.

    A true patriot. Mr Roger would be proud.
  • Mr. CD13, reminds me a bit of a couple of years ago when the 'children' were brought over. They looked so youthful and innocent the authorities threw up barriers so they could enter without the public seeing their crows' feet.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 11,402
    DavidL said:

    OT, i’m spending NYE this year in Ulverston in Cumbria. Never been before and wasn’t impressed initially but the old town is lovely.

    I am looking like I am spending it in hospital which is a bit of a bore. My view is of another bit of white concrete opposite.
    No doubt the nurses will have a good selection of spirits ready for the bells. Possibly water with the water.
    Sorry to hear that David, hope everything is ok.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,595
    Mortimer said:

    DavidL said:

    OT, i’m spending NYE this year in Ulverston in Cumbria. Never been before and wasn’t impressed initially but the old town is lovely.

    I am looking like I am spending it in hospital which is a bit of a bore. My view is of another bit of white concrete opposite.
    No doubt the nurses will have a good selection of spirits ready for the bells. Possibly water with the water.
    Sorry to hear that David, hope everything is ok.
    best wishes etc etc
  • Mr. L, hope it's nothing too serious.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 9,074
    CD13 said:

    Interesting to see us having selective immigration with a vengeance.

    We're open to anyone who is able to make the difficult journey (predominantly youngish and male) but also middle class enough to the have financial clout to pay a large sum of money to people traffickers.in Calais.

    The new demographic of the Labour Party.

    Haven't you noticed that it is the Tory government that is landing them here?
  • DavidL said:

    Who is this mythical beast who will magically make the Tories more popular? May is about as popular as Tories get and she is one of the worst campaigners to ever lead a major party. I agree with Mike that Labour are being complacent if they assume the 2017 effect will be repeated but the Tories seriously lack quality too. Absolutely no one in the present cabinet is fit to wipe Cameron’s boots as a campaigner. It’s a problem.

    I think that's about right. Because the Tory campaign last time was so awful, there's an assumption that the next one will be jolly good, but there are different ways to be awful and I'm not convinced that they've hit on any winners yet. I certainly agree that Labour can't complacently expect all to go smoothly either.

    Both Corbyn and Labour's manifesto will have pluses and minuses compared with 2017. Corbyn is now such a familiar figure that his exciting newcomer gloss has worn off even for younger voters (even though many still like him); conversely people are used to the idea that he might be a plausible PM, which many saw as outlandish in 2017. He's not dropped any real clangers for a long time (people didn't feel that possibly muttering "stupid woman" to himself after TM's panto performance was that unreasonable), which is why we still read stuff about what he said in a leftie magazine in 1974 etc. That's why the Tories are road-testing the idea that he's maybe not wicked, merely a frontman for the wicked - doesn't seem to be resonating, though.

    The manifesto was unicorn-rich and appealed for that reason in a landscape dominated by "life is grim, we promise little" messages. I agree it will get closer scrutiny next time. That said, it'll be hard to top the hatchet jobs attempted by the Mail and Sun last time - 12 pages each IIRC. I think Labour can afford to be fairly cautious with just a few highlighted issues - lefties will trust the leadership to deliver a fair amount of good stuff, and everyone else really just wants a serious alternative to the exhausted Tory shambles. The complete disappearance of funding problems is useful too - the idea that you can clear your debts by attracting lots of paying members has the charm of novelty in Britain, where increasingly all parties were funded by a few big donors.
    It's quite an adventurous reading of the polls to suggest that Jeremy Corbyn is seen as a plausible Prime Minister.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 23,828
    Foxy said:

    As a tactical LAB voter in one of the tightest marginals in the country I will not use vote next time to help the Jew-hating pro-Brexiteer.

    I wouldn't agree with that description, but what new did we learn about between 2017 and now? His support of Palestine and Brexit voting record were well known at the GE.

    Jezza doesn't need a 2017 surge as he starts in a different place. Remember when the debate on here was whether May's majority would be 100 or 200?

    No Labour government, least of all a minority one, would pass a Brexit like May's or indeed much of a Brexit at all, even with Jezza at its head.
    How do you get to a position where Labour cancels Brexit? Surely a hard Brexit is the default, which means actions need to be taken to avert it.

    It's not just a case of what a government (Labour or Conservative) want to do; it's what they can agree with the EU that matters. And I fail to see any reason why Labour's intellectual giants would be any better at this than the Conservative's perspicacious leviathans. ;)
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 12,457
    DavidL said:

    OT, i’m spending NYE this year in Ulverston in Cumbria. Never been before and wasn’t impressed initially but the old town is lovely.

    I am looking like I am spending it in hospital which is a bit of a bore. My view is of another bit of white concrete opposite.
    No doubt the nurses will have a good selection of spirits ready for the bells. Possibly water with the water.
    Sympathies and best wishes - hope 2019 produces a decisive turn for the better for you.
  • Get well soon, @DavidL
  • Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    A record number of applications for Irish passports this year.

    .........Get in there fast while stocks last

    Yes, an Irish passport is a very worthwhile asset. Right to vote and residence anywhere in the UK and the freedom of a continent.

    Sadly Dr Foxys Irish ancestors are rather too distant.

    Yep, I think I am about the only person born in St Pancras in the 1960s with no Irish blood. It's a matter of great regret to me these days.

  • CD13CD13 Posts: 5,507
    Dr Fox,

    "Haven't you noticed that it is the Tory government that is landing them here?"

    I think their cunning plan needs a bit more work.

    Mr L,

    Best wishes.
  • DavidL said:

    Who is this mythical beast who will magically make the Tories more popular? May is about as popular as Tories get and she is one of the worst campaigners to ever lead a major party. I agree with Mike that Labour are being complacent if they assume the 2017 effect will be repeated but the Tories seriously lack quality too. Absolutely no one in the present cabinet is fit to wipe Cameron’s boots as a campaigner. It’s a problem.

    I think that's about right. Because the Tory campaign last time was so awful, there's an assumption that the next one will be jolly good, but there are different ways to be awful and I'm not convinced that they've hit on any winners yet. I certainly agree that Labour can't complacently expect all to go smoothly either.

    Both Corbyn and Labour's manifesto will have pluses and minuses compared with 2017. Corbyn is now such a familiar figure that his exciting newcomer gloss has worn off even for younger voters (even though many still like him); conversely people are used to the idea that he might be a plausible PM, which many saw as outlandish in 2017. He's not dropped any real clangers for a long time (people didn't feel that possibly muttering "stupid woman" to himself after TM's panto performance was that unreasonable), which is why we still read stuff about what he said in a leftie magazine in 1974 etc. That's why the Tories are road-testing the idea that he's maybe not wicked, merely a frontman for the wicked - doesn't seem to be resonating, though.

    The manifesto was unicorn-rich and appealed for that reason in a landscape dominated by "life is grim, we promise little" messages. I agree it will get closer scrutiny next time. That said, it'll be hard to top the hatchet jobs attempted by the Mail and Sun last time - 12 pages each IIRC. I think Labour can afford to be fairly cautious with just a few highlighted issues - lefties will trust the leadership to deliver a fair amount of good stuff, and everyone else really just wants a serious alternative to the exhausted Tory shambles. The complete disappearance of funding problems is useful too - the idea that you can clear your debts by attracting lots of paying members has the charm of novelty in Britain, where increasingly all parties were funded by a few big donors.

    Just to note that in the current polling Jeremy Corbyn is seen as a less plausible PM than the worst PM in British history and Don't Know - and not by a little bit.

    For as long as Labour members continue to prioritise Jeremy Corbyn being their leader over Labour winning general elections the Tories basically have free rein to do as they will in government, to the extent of not actually being a single functioning political entity.

  • Foxy said:

    As a tactical LAB voter in one of the tightest marginals in the country I will not use vote next time to help the Jew-hating pro-Brexiteer.

    I wouldn't agree with that description, but what new did we learn about between 2017 and now? His support of Palestine and Brexit voting record were well known at the GE.

    Jezza doesn't need a 2017 surge as he starts in a different place. Remember when the debate on here was whether May's majority would be 100 or 200?

    No Labour government, least of all a minority one, would pass a Brexit like May's or indeed much of a Brexit at all, even with Jezza at its head.

    We will have Brexited by the time of the next GE and we will have done so with the Labour leadership's full support. At a time when Labour need to attract more votes - especially in Scotland - that is not a winning strategy IMO.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 23,828
    Mortimer said:

    DavidL said:

    OT, i’m spending NYE this year in Ulverston in Cumbria. Never been before and wasn’t impressed initially but the old town is lovely.

    I am looking like I am spending it in hospital which is a bit of a bore. My view is of another bit of white concrete opposite.
    No doubt the nurses will have a good selection of spirits ready for the bells. Possibly water with the water.
    Sorry to hear that David, hope everything is ok.
    Indeed. DavidL, hope you're better soon.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 18,631
    edited December 2018

    Just to note that in the current polling Jeremy Corbyn is seen as a less plausible PM than the worst PM in British history and Don't Know - and not by a little bit.

    Really?

    I haven't seen any polling comparing him to Lord Goderich. It would be fascinating to look at the criteria. Do you have a link?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 18,631

    Mortimer said:

    DavidL said:

    OT, i’m spending NYE this year in Ulverston in Cumbria. Never been before and wasn’t impressed initially but the old town is lovely.

    I am looking like I am spending it in hospital which is a bit of a bore. My view is of another bit of white concrete opposite.
    No doubt the nurses will have a good selection of spirits ready for the bells. Possibly water with the water.
    Sorry to hear that David, hope everything is ok.
    Indeed. DavidL, hope you're better soon.
    Likewise.
  • In other news, I have written to the ludicrous Chris Grayling to volunteer to pretend to run a ferry company for just £10 million. As he continues to plan for what is setting itself up to be a triumphant No Deal Brexit I think this offer to save the country £4 million is a deeply patriotic act.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 18,631

    In other news, I have written to the ludicrous Chris Grayling to volunteer to pretend to run a ferry company for just £10 million. As he continues to plan for what is setting itself up to be a triumphant No Deal Brexit I think this offer to save the country £4 million is a deeply patriotic act.

    Ferry noble of you to make the offer...but I sea way past your claims!

    Have a good morning.
  • Mr. Observer, Grayling really doesn't deserve a place in government.

    At least this boneheaded nonsense is getting the scrutiny it deserves.

    Mildly amused I actually have more assets (according to the BBC News, the firm in question possessed the princely sum of £66) than the contract-winning 'business'.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 11,896
    Labour goes into the next election stronger, the Tories weaker. The campaign will be interesting again.

    Corbyn is good on the stump. He surprised in 2017. The Tories had a hard time pinning a charge incompetence on someone clearly better at it than they were. The last couple of years have done nothing for the Tories claims of managerial competence or pragmatism.

    Could be a close run thing.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 4,329

    DavidL said:

    I think that's about right. Because the Tory campaign last time was so awful, there's an assumption that the next one will be jolly good, but there are different ways to be awful and I'm not convinced that they've hit on any winners yet. I certainly agree that Labour can't complacently expect all to go smoothly either.

    Both Corbyn and Labour's manifesto will have pluses and minuses compared with 2017. Corbyn is now such a familiar figure that his exciting newcomer gloss has worn off even for younger voters (even though many still like him); conversely people are used to the idea that he might be a plausible PM, which many saw as outlandish in 2017. He's not dropped any real clangers for a long time (people didn't feel that possibly muttering "stupid woman" to himself after TM's panto performance was that unreasonable), which is why we still read stuff about what he said in a leftie magazine in 1974 etc. That's why the Tories are road-testing the idea that he's maybe not wicked, merely a frontman for the wicked - doesn't seem to be resonating, though.

    The manifesto was unicorn-rich and appealed for that reason in a landscape dominated by "life is grim, we promise little" messages. I agree it will get closer scrutiny next time. That said, it'll be hard to top the hatchet jobs attempted by the Mail and Sun last time - 12 pages each IIRC. I think Labour can afford to be fairly cautious with just a few highlighted issues - lefties will trust the leadership to deliver a fair amount of good stuff, and everyone else really just wants a serious alternative to the exhausted Tory shambles. The complete disappearance of funding problems is useful too - the idea that you can clear your debts by attracting lots of paying members has the charm of novelty in Britain, where increasingly all parties were funded by a few big donors.

    Just to note that in the current polling Jeremy Corbyn is seen as a less plausible PM than the worst PM in British history and Don't Know - and not by a little bit.

    For as long as Labour members continue to prioritise Jeremy Corbyn being their leader over Labour winning general elections the Tories basically have free rein to do as they will in government, to the extent of not actually being a single functioning political entity.

    I suspect that John McDonnell doesn't prioritise Jeremy Corbyn being their leader over Labour winning general elections and he's likely to have more influence on Corbyn than Labour members.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 23,828
    Jonathan said:

    Labour goes into the next election stronger, the Tories weaker. The campaign will be interesting again.

    Corbyn is good on the stump. He surprised in 2017. The Tories had a hard time pinning a charge incompetence on someone clearly better at it than they were. The last couple of years have done nothing for the Tories claims of managerial competence or pragmatism.

    Could be a close run thing.

    Is Corbyn actually good 'on the stump' ? He has to appeal to voters well outside his usual demographic of far-leftists, and ISTR he has shown a certain impatience during interviews when pressed.
  • In other news, I have written to the ludicrous Chris Grayling to volunteer to pretend to run a ferry company for just £10 million. As he continues to plan for what is setting itself up to be a triumphant No Deal Brexit I think this offer to save the country £4 million is a deeply patriotic act.

    I'm a dab hand in a pedalo. I'm in.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 11,896

    Jonathan said:

    Labour goes into the next election stronger, the Tories weaker. The campaign will be interesting again.

    Corbyn is good on the stump. He surprised in 2017. The Tories had a hard time pinning a charge incompetence on someone clearly better at it than they were. The last couple of years have done nothing for the Tories claims of managerial competence or pragmatism.

    Could be a close run thing.

    Is Corbyn actually good 'on the stump' ? He has to appeal to voters well outside his usual demographic of far-leftists, and ISTR he has shown a certain impatience during interviews when pressed.
    Data point of one and definitely outside his core, but I thought he did very well. Clear, articulate and natural. Ahead of May, Milliband, Brown, Howard.
  • Morning all and happy Hogmanay. I see my old handle "Easterross" is still banned. I have been lurking for most of the past 2 years and just as well because the blinkered, remoaning attitude of those among you who clearly never venture north of the M25 is staggering. Anyway almost enough of Brexit for today.

    A couple of wee reminders about the 2017 GE. You all laughed at me for years when I predicted the resurrection of the Scottish Tories and here we are going into our 4th year as the second party in Scottish politics. If I had money to burn, I would have backed Ruth Davidson in 2016 to be the next First Minister of Scotland.

    A couple of things on Brexit. 1. if Brexit is prevented by the remoaners, the yellow jacket protests in France will seem but a picnic compared to what is likely to be unleashed on this side of the channel. 2. By getting your 2nd referendum to prevent Brexit you will have condemned the UK because there will no justification for denying the current majority will of the Scottish Parliament to hold another and that will almost certainly be a Yes because many Scots including unionists will simply see Westminster as duplicitous and like the Long Parliament there to serve its own ends and not the expressed will of 17.4 million voters.


    Incidentally I never hear any remoaners on here claim the Welsh assembly referendum was illegal, invalid or untrustworthy. It was honoured even though barely 1/4 of the people of Wales voted for it.


    As to the next UK General Election, it all comes down to Brexit and Corbyn. But what if we have already left the EU and Corbyn is but a bad smell on the past of the Labour party? A very different scene. If however Brexit is frustrated and Corbyn remains, goodness knows what will happen but one thing is for sure, it will be the dirtiest election ever fought in the UK and a great many reputations will be trashed for good.


    I do enjoy the podcasts but Alastair Meeks dear chap, the days of Blair have gone and when I read your predictions and political opinions I know almost always the exact opposite wll occur!


    I am glad to see Nick Palmer is still around. Nick I regularly get dodgy emails when you have been hacked!! There must be something about the air in Broxtowe. With every passing day Anna Soubry gets more like you Nick in political philosophy.


    Happy New Year everyone and DavidL get well soon. We have a stunningly mild day in Easter Ross (though somewhat ironically North Cadboll is actually part of the pre-1890 Cromartyshire)
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 7,064

    Morning all and happy Hogmanay. I see my old handle "Easterross" is still banned. I have been lurking for most of the past 2 years and just as well because the blinkered, remoaning attitude of those among you who clearly never venture north of the M25 is staggering. Anyway almost enough of Brexit for today.

    A couple of wee reminders about the 2017 GE. You all laughed at me for years when I predicted the resurrection of the Scottish Tories and here we are going into our 4th year as the second party in Scottish politics. If I had money to burn, I would have backed Ruth Davidson in 2016 to be the next First Minister of Scotland.

    A couple of things on Brexit. 1. if Brexit is prevented by the remoaners, the yellow jacket protests in France will seem but a picnic compared to what is likely to be unleashed on this side of the channel. 2. By getting your 2nd referendum to prevent Brexit you will have condemned the UK because there will no justification for denying the current majority will of the Scottish Parliament to hold another and that will almost certainly be a Yes because many Scots including unionists will simply see Westminster as duplicitous and like the Long Parliament there to serve its own ends and not the expressed will of 17.4 million voters.


    Incidentally I never hear any remoaners on here claim the Welsh assembly referendum was illegal, invalid or untrustworthy. It was honoured even though barely 1/4 of the people of Wales voted for it.


    As to the next UK General Election, it all comes down to Brexit and Corbyn. But what if we have already left the EU and Corbyn is but a bad smell on the past of the Labour party? A very different scene. If however Brexit is frustrated and Corbyn remains, goodness knows what will happen but one thing is for sure, it will be the dirtiest election ever fought in the UK and a great many reputations will be trashed for good.


    I do enjoy the podcasts but Alastair Meeks dear chap, the days of Blair have gone and when I read your predictions and political opinions I know almost always the exact opposite wll occur!


    I am glad to see Nick Palmer is still around. Nick I regularly get dodgy emails when you have been hacked!! There must be something about the air in Broxtowe. With every passing day Anna Soubry gets more like you Nick in political philosophy.


    Happy New Year everyone and DavidL get well soon. We have a stunningly mild day in Easter Ross (though somewhat ironically North Cadboll is actually part of the pre-1890 Cromartyshire)

    Happy Hogmanay, good to see you back.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 11,896
    Grayling takes politics to a surrealist performance art. Not thinking to check whether the ferry operator has a boat is worthy of Dali.
  • felixfelix Posts: 8,666
    Roger said:

    Charles said:

    Roger said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    So what's Javid's master plan for the petits bateaux? Is he going to light them up with a 20mm Oerlikon as soon as they clear the French 12nm limit?

    ....... I heard the devastating news that a small boat containing 4 foreigners was heading towards the Kent coast when I woke up.

    I imagine the government is calling a Cobra meeting urgently
    There are rules in place to manage asylum claims. France is, as far as I know (although you will have a better view) a safe and tolerant country.

    But they have decided that the rules shouldn’t apply to them

    Why should that kind of attitude to the law be welcome in our country?
    I imagine they had more interesting things to do than fill out endless forms over the Christmas holidays. That's the problem with these fun loving Europeans. They just don't understand the concept of always being miserable.
    I thought the UK was so despised that no one would wish to come here much preferring the joyous and tolerant France.
  • Welcome back, Mr. Cadboll :)
  • RogerRoger Posts: 11,346
    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    A record number of applications for Irish passports this year.

    .........Get in there fast while stocks last

    Yes, an Irish passport is a very worthwhile asset. Right to vote and residence anywhere in the UK and the freedom of a continent.

    Sadly Dr Foxys Irish ancestors are rather too distant.
    200,000 applied for last year and the numbers are going up fast. Don't worry about ancestry. A couple of hundred quid and pronounce Saoirse Ronan correctly and it's yours!
  • Morning all and happy Hogmanay. I see my old handle "Easterross" is still banned. I have been lurking for most of the past 2 years and just as well because the blinkered, remoaning attitude of those among you who clearly never venture north of the M25 is staggering. Anyway almost enough of Brexit for today.

    A couple of wee reminders about the 2017 GE. You all laughed at me for years when I predicted the resurrection of the Scottish Tories and here we are going into our 4th year as the second party in Scottish politics. If I had money to burn, I would have backed Ruth Davidson in 2016 to be the next First Minister of Scotland.

    A couple of things on Brexit. 1. if Brexit is prevented by the remoaners, the yellow jacket protests in France will seem but a picnic compared to what is likely to be unleashed on this side of the channel. 2. By getting your 2nd referendum to prevent Brexit you will have condemned the UK because there will no justification for denying the current majority will of the Scottish Parliament to hold another and that will almost certainly be a Yes because many Scots including unionists will simply see Westminster as duplicitous and like the Long Parliament there to serve its own ends and not the expressed will of 17.4 million voters.


    Incidentally I never hear any remoaners on here claim the Welsh assembly referendum was illegal, invalid or untrustworthy. It was honoured even though barely 1/4 of the people of Wales voted for it.


    As to the next UK General Election, it all comes down to Brexit and Corbyn. But what if we have already left the EU and Corbyn is but a bad smell on the past of the Labour party? A very different scene. If however Brexit is frustrated and Corbyn remains, goodness knows what will happen but one thing is for sure, it will be the dirtiest election ever fought in the UK and a great many reputations will be trashed for good.


    I do enjoy the podcasts but Alastair Meeks dear chap, the days of Blair have gone and when I read your predictions and political opinions I know almost always the exact opposite wll occur!


    I am glad to see Nick Palmer is still around. Nick I regularly get dodgy emails when you have been hacked!! There must be something about the air in Broxtowe. With every passing day Anna Soubry gets more like you Nick in political philosophy.


    Happy New Year everyone and DavidL get well soon. We have a stunningly mild day in Easter Ross (though somewhat ironically North Cadboll is actually part of the pre-1890 Cromartyshire)

    Tbf your predictions of SCon resurgence were along the lines of Cable predicting 9 of the last 1 recessions.

    Welcome back anyway!
  • @NorthCadboll good to see you back.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 11,346

    Jonathan said:

    Labour goes into the next election stronger, the Tories weaker. The campaign will be interesting again.

    Corbyn is good on the stump. He surprised in 2017. The Tories had a hard time pinning a charge incompetence on someone clearly better at it than they were. The last couple of years have done nothing for the Tories claims of managerial competence or pragmatism.

    Could be a close run thing.

    Is Corbyn actually good 'on the stump' ? He has to appeal to voters well outside his usual demographic of far-leftists, and ISTR he has shown a certain impatience during interviews when pressed.
    Of course he shows impatience because everyone who interviews him asks if he still hates Jews.
  • Mr. Roger, one might say he doesn't mind being present for interviews, but he'd prefer not to be involved.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 12,457




    I am glad to see Nick Palmer is still around. Nick I regularly get dodgy emails when you have been hacked!! There must be something about the air in Broxtowe. With every passing day Anna Soubry gets more like you Nick in political philosophy.


    Happy New Year everyone and DavidL get well soon. We have a stunningly mild day in Easter Ross (though somewhat ironically North Cadboll is actually part of the pre-1890 Cromartyshire)

    Welcome back, NorthCadboll! Yes, sorry about the hacking - someone raided AOL's servers years ago and periodically I assume sells the list to a spam merchant. I've changed my password but as the emails aren't really from me there's not a lot I can do about it except delete my account, which too many people have to make that a good idea.

    Broxtowe, which voted Leave, has been strangely blessed (or not) with Eurozealot MPs for 44 years - 8 years of Anna, 13 years of me, and 23 years of Jim Lester, an amiable Ken Clarke acolyte. None of us have ever disguised it, any more than I tried to conceal my commnist past from voters during the years when I was regularly beating the national swing. Broxtowe folk are very tolerant! Converesely, of course, it shows the limits of influence that MPs and former MPs have on their voters - little sign of their turning into red europhiles, sadly.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 18,648


    As to the next UK General Election, it all comes down to Brexit and Corbyn. But what if we have already left the EU and Corbyn is but a bad smell on the past of the Labour party? A very different scene. If however Brexit is frustrated and Corbyn remains, goodness knows what will happen but one thing is for sure, it will be the dirtiest election ever fought in the UK and a great many reputations will be trashed for good.

    What political reputations are there left still to trash?
This discussion has been closed.