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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Since the end of October only one survey from a pollster other

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited January 1 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Since the end of October only one survey from a pollster other than YouGov has recorded a CON lead

There’s a new poll reported in the Times today from YouGov which has a Conservative lead albeit a reduced one of 2%.

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 7,187
    edited January 1
    1st like this day of the year!

    (Oh, I think I might have broken my resolution not to claim firsts!)
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 232
    Second like labour..
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 9,287

    1st like this day of the year!

    (Oh, I think I might have broken my resolution not to claim firsts!)

    Firsts are overrated.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 9,287
    FPT

    Nigelb said:
    Wrecking Carter's re-election bid was, while it might have seemed a good idea at the time, a grave mistake by the Iranians.
    I’ve always thought Carter one of the more underrated US Presidents, and Reagan not quite so good as he is thought to be. An alternate history where Carter was re-elected would be interesting.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 9,287
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 2,109
    I knew YouGov was the worst for Labour and that we had some better polling for Labour from other pollsters but I hadn't quite realised that there has only been one poll not showing Labour tied or leading aside from them.

    Quite surprised.

    Although shouldn't just write the worst one off completely, from a Conservative perspective the worst one was near enough right come election time.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,305
    edited January 1
    Of the polls though not showing Tory leads, they all have either a tie or Labour lead of 1% (in the case of Survation) or 2% in the case of Comres.

    Given Labour need a lead of at least 5 to 6% over the Tories for a majority and 2%+ even to become largest party if Corbyn does become PM he will therefore almost certainly be able to do it propped up by the SNP
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,305
    New Year's Day concert from Vienna on BBC2 now
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 9,287

    I knew YouGov was the worst for Labour and that we had some better polling for Labour from other pollsters but I hadn't quite realised that there has only been one poll not showing Labour tied or leading aside from them.

    Quite surprised.

    Although shouldn't just write the worst one off completely, from a Conservative perspective the worst one was near enough right come election time.

    But have not pollsters changed their modelling since their election embarrassment ?
    Though whether their new assumptions hold water in what is a very different political situation is questionable.

    I don’t think we can conclude much more form the polling other than that the two main parties are fairly close. And FWIW, I can’t discern any trends in the figures Mike has posted.

  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 2,109
    HYUFD said:

    Of the polls though not showing Tory leads, they all have either a tie or Labour lead of 1% (in the case of Survation) or 2% in the case of Comres.

    Given Labour need a lead of at least 5 to 6% over the Tories for a majority and 2%+ even to become largest party if Corbyn does become PM he will therefore almost certainly be able to do it propped up by the SNP

    It is what would happen on the basis of polls now (outside of YouGov) but even if we assume nothing at all changes in a future election campaign with new manifestos, there is some time and more importantly something to be done with Brexit, even if the thing is more extension, before any election happens.

    It seems likely that there would be the potential for poll movement before any election campaign depending on how events go.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 37,914
    Small Con lead, tied or small Lab lead, it's still pretty inexplicable. I've given up expecting it to change, but if it ever should, and this year would be the time for it to happen, I could see the change being pretty dramatic.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,305
    edited January 1

    I knew YouGov was the worst for Labour and that we had some better polling for Labour from other pollsters but I hadn't quite realised that there has only been one poll not showing Labour tied or leading aside from them.

    Quite surprised.

    Although shouldn't just write the worst one off completely, from a Conservative perspective the worst one was near enough right come election time.

    The most accurate pollster at the last general election was Survation who predicted just a 1% Tory lead in its final poll compared to the 2% lead the Tories ended up with.

    The latest Survation poll in the table above would still see the Tories largest party on 288 seats to 285 for Labour according to Electoral Calculus.

    However as there would be 38 SNP MPs Corbyn would be able to become PM of a minority government as Labour + SNP would be on 323 seats while the Tories plus DUP would be on only 298 seats. Though Labour would also likely need the support of the 17 LD MPs predicted or the 3 Plaid MPs to ensure they could get anything through given 326 seats are needed for a majority

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=39&LAB=40&LIB=8&UKIP=3&Green=2&NewLAB=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 2,109
    Nigelb said:

    I knew YouGov was the worst for Labour and that we had some better polling for Labour from other pollsters but I hadn't quite realised that there has only been one poll not showing Labour tied or leading aside from them.

    Quite surprised.

    Although shouldn't just write the worst one off completely, from a Conservative perspective the worst one was near enough right come election time.

    But have not pollsters changed their modelling since their election embarrassment ?
    Though whether their new assumptions hold water in what is a very different political situation is questionable.

    I don’t think we can conclude much more form the polling other than that the two main parties are fairly close. And FWIW, I can’t discern any trends in the figures Mike has posted.

    I've basically taken the view the parties have been close to tied for a couple of years now with one edging ahead slightly now and again, this has been the Tories recently but it looks like Labour is bringing it back to a tie last couple of months.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,305
    edited January 1
    Nigelb said:

    FPT

    Nigelb said:
    Wrecking Carter's re-election bid was, while it might have seemed a good idea at the time, a grave mistake by the Iranians.
    I’ve always thought Carter one of the more underrated US Presidents, and Reagan not quite so good as he is thought to be. An alternate history where Carter was re-elected would be interesting.

    Carter was elected as after Nixon Americans wanted an honest, purer than pure candidate.

    However he turned out to be weak and oversaw the humiliation in Iran and a sluggish economy while it took Reagan to restore the American optimism and strength in the world it had not had since JFK was assassinated
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,371
    kle4 said:

    Small Con lead, tied or small Lab lead, it's still pretty inexplicable. I've given up expecting it to change, but if it ever should, and this year would be the time for it to happen, I could see the change being pretty dramatic.

    The Conservatives had a very large lead in the polls before the 2017 election but that lead all but vanished in the actual election.

    So having a poll lead in not necessarily meaningful.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 48,984
    Given historical polling performance the true picture with a GE tommorow could be anything from Lab +4/-4
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,305

    HYUFD said:

    Of the polls though not showing Tory leads, they all have either a tie or Labour lead of 1% (in the case of Survation) or 2% in the case of Comres.

    Given Labour need a lead of at least 5 to 6% over the Tories for a majority and 2%+ even to become largest party if Corbyn does become PM he will therefore almost certainly be able to do it propped up by the SNP

    It is what would happen on the basis of polls now (outside of YouGov) but even if we assume nothing at all changes in a future election campaign with new manifestos, there is some time and more importantly something to be done with Brexit, even if the thing is more extension, before any election happens.

    It seems likely that there would be the potential for poll movement before any election campaign depending on how events go.
    As long as Corbyn is Labour leader and the Tories do not abandon Brexit I can see very little net Tory to Labour movement, at most there may be some Labour to LD movement if Corbyn continues to oppose EUref2 or some Tory to LD movement if we end up with No Deal or some Tory to UKIP movement if May's Deal gets through or there is EUref2 and Remain wins
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 981
    edited January 1
    Happy New Year everyone. Good Health and happiness to all.

    It’s difficult to put much trust in any poll these days given their poor recent track record. Personally, I think it will take a miracle for the Tories to win the next election, particularly if May stays. She is an abysmal campaigner, has no domestic policies and is the author of a Brexit deal which satisfies no one. A new leader has a chance but he or she will also need time to establish themselves which seems unlikely.

    Labour have similar problems. They are electorally toxic to too many people especially with Corbyn and McDonnell in their current positions.

    Britain needs a change of both leaders but politics being based upon patronage rather than ability, its difficult to see that happening. May will probably go when her Brexit deal is rejected but who knows when Corbyn will go. He seems safe as long as he has McCluskey’s backing and there are no signs of that changing.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 2,109
    HYUFD said:

    I knew YouGov was the worst for Labour and that we had some better polling for Labour from other pollsters but I hadn't quite realised that there has only been one poll not showing Labour tied or leading aside from them.

    Quite surprised.

    Although shouldn't just write the worst one off completely, from a Conservative perspective the worst one was near enough right come election time.

    The most accurate pollster at the last general election was Survation who predicted just a 1% Tory lead in its final poll compared to the 2% lead the Tories ended up with.

    The latest Survation poll in the table above would still see the Tories largest party on 288 seats to 285 for Labour according to Electoral Calculus.

    However as there would be 38 SNP MPs Corbyn would be able to become PM of a minority government as Labour + SNP would be on 323 seats while the Tories plus DUP would be on only 298 seats. Though Labour would also likely need the support of the 17 LD MPs predicted or the 3 Plaid MPs to ensure they could get anything through given 326 seats are needed for a majority

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=39&LAB=40&LIB=8&UKIP=3&Green=2&NewLAB=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017
    I think I can call 1% off the result as near enough right. Although my point in case it wasn't clear was that I shouldn't dismiss the worst one for Labour as it might similarly be close to accurate.

    Presumably with Sinn Fein abstentionism 323 would be enough, we do have a very friendly Green MP in the chamber if numbers are incredibly tight. Although I would expect some polling movement given events to play out with Brexit before any changes that could occur in the election campaign.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,305
    Pulpstar said:

    Given historical polling performance the true picture with a GE tommorow could be anything from Lab +4/-4

    None of which would be enough for a Labour overall majority, though the Tories could win a tiny overall majority if they lead Labour by 4%
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,114

    kle4 said:

    Small Con lead, tied or small Lab lead, it's still pretty inexplicable. I've given up expecting it to change, but if it ever should, and this year would be the time for it to happen, I could see the change being pretty dramatic.

    The Conservatives had a very large lead in the polls before the 2017 election but that lead all but vanished in the actual election.

    So having a poll lead in not necessarily meaningful.
    It would have been meaningful bar the loony pensioner benefit withdrawals that were proposed. Without that May would have won easily IMHO///
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 48,984
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Given historical polling performance the true picture with a GE tommorow could be anything from Lab +4/-4

    None of which would be enough for a Labour overall majority, though the Tories could win a tiny overall majority if they lead Labour by 4%
    Labour's margin for a Lib-Lab victory is probably very narrow. Probably SNP confidence and supply - contingent on a 2nd referendum though...
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 13,238
    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    FPT

    Nigelb said:
    Wrecking Carter's re-election bid was, while it might have seemed a good idea at the time, a grave mistake by the Iranians.
    I’ve always thought Carter one of the more underrated US Presidents, and Reagan not quite so good as he is thought to be. An alternate history where Carter was re-elected would be interesting.

    Carter was elected as after Nixon Americans wanted an honest, purer than pure candidate.

    However he turned out to be weak and oversaw the humiliation in Iran and a sluggish economy while it took Reagan to restore the American optimism and strength in the world it had not had since JFK was assassinated
    I don't think Carter was particularly 'weak'; however, he wasn't particularly good at delegating, or at dealing with Congress. He also came up against an unscrupulous enemy in the Iranians who felt, with good reason, that the Americans, and especially the oil companies, put their own interests first and those of Iran and it's people at best at 6th to 7th.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,371
    Nigelb said:

    1st like this day of the year!

    (Oh, I think I might have broken my resolution not to claim firsts!)

    Firsts are overrated.
    Grade inflation.

    Back in the 1900s even Einstein was not getting good grades and certainly not a first.

    "Einstein later recalled that after graduating in 1900 the “coercion” of being forced to take the final exams “had such a detrimental effect that… I found the consideration of any scientific problem distasteful to me for an entire year”. He achieved an overall mark of 4.91 out of 6, which is rather marginal. Academic positions were found for all members of the graduating class in the physics department of the ETH with the exception of Einstein, who seems to have been written off as virtually unemployable, “a pariah, discounted and little loved”, as he later said."

    Source: https://qbnets.wordpress.com/2015/03/09/the-truth-about-einsteins-bad-grades/
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 6,220
    HYUFD said:

    I knew YouGov was the worst for Labour and that we had some better polling for Labour from other pollsters but I hadn't quite realised that there has only been one poll not showing Labour tied or leading aside from them.

    Quite surprised.

    Although shouldn't just write the worst one off completely, from a Conservative perspective the worst one was near enough right come election time.

    The most accurate pollster at the last general election was Survation who predicted just a 1% Tory lead in its final poll compared to the 2% lead the Tories ended up with.

    The latest Survation poll in the table above would still see the Tories largest party on 288 seats to 285 for Labour according to Electoral Calculus.

    However as there would be 38 SNP MPs Corbyn would be able to become PM of a minority government as Labour + SNP would be on 323 seats while the Tories plus DUP would be on only 298 seats. Though Labour would also likely need the support of the 17 LD MPs predicted or the 3 Plaid MPs to ensure they could get anything through given 326 seats are needed for a majority

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=39&LAB=40&LIB=8&UKIP=3&Green=2&NewLAB=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017
    It is not safe to assume that SNP, LD, or PC would support a Corbyn government. Indeed with such an outcome we would line up with Sweden or Germany with the difficulty of forming a coalition.

    I wouldnt read too much into polls though, as the circumstances that lead to an early GE would be likely to shatter the assumptions on which they are based.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,305

    Happy New Year everyone. Good Health and happiness to all.

    It’s difficult to put much trust in any poll these days given their poor recent track record. Personally, I think it will take a miracle for the Tories to win the next election, particularly if May stays. She is an abysmal campaigner, has no domestic policies and is the author of a Brexit deal which satisfies no one. A new leader has a chance but he or she will also need time to establish themselves which seems unlikely.

    Labour have similar problems. They are electorally toxic to too many people especially with Corbyn and McDonnell in their current positions.

    Britain needs a change of both leaders but politics being based upon patronage rather than ability, its difficult to see that happening. May will probably go when her Brexit deal is rejected but who knows when Corbyn will go. He seems safe as long as he has McCluskey’s backing and there are no signs of that changing.

    May will stay until next Decdmber at least, she will stick to her Deal through to Brexit Day given she cannot now be challenged for a year having won the VONC. No alternative Tory leader polls better than May and most poll worse
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 2,109
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Given historical polling performance the true picture with a GE tommorow could be anything from Lab +4/-4

    None of which would be enough for a Labour overall majority, though the Tories could win a tiny overall majority if they lead Labour by 4%
    Labour's margin for a Lib-Lab victory is probably very narrow. Probably SNP confidence and supply - contingent on a 2nd referendum though...
    That could work out nicely for those Labour members who want a second referendum but don't want Labour to have the blame for pushing it.

    In terms of offering the SNP something, it almost isn't much of an offer on my part because I believe we should do it regardless but give the power to call an independence referendum to the Scottish Parliament.

    They would still have to work with the electoral commision and in some fashion with the British government to make it work and make it fair to all sides but it seems right that if an area wants to split off from Britain the decision on a referendum to do so is held by the representatives of that area. Presumably they would be stopped from just holding constant referendum to get the 'right answer' by voters annoyance at being asked constantly. They would have to judge how quickly they can ask again and pay any electoral consequences.

    After the experience of Brexit I may be tempted to suggest a two referendum process with one confirming the negotiated deal to leave the UK at the end of the process but that is just my general thoughts on it rather than a specific requirement I'd suggest Labour make.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,305
    edited January 1

    HYUFD said:

    I knew YouGov was the worst for Labour and that we had some better polling for Labour from other pollsters but I hadn't quite realised that there has only been one poll not showing Labour tied or leading aside from them.

    Quite surprised.

    Although shouldn't just write the worst one off completely, from a Conservative perspective the worst one was near enough right come election time.

    The most accurate pollster at the last general election was Survation who predicted just a 1% Tory lead in its final poll compared to the 2% lead the Tories ended up with.

    The latest Survation poll in the table above would still see the Tories largest party on 288 seats to 285 for Labour according to Electoral Calculus.

    However as there would be 38 SNP MPs Corbyn would be able to become PM of a minority government as Labour + SNP would be on 323 seats while the Tories plus DUP would be on only 298 seats. Though Labour would also likely need the support of the 17 LD MPs predicted or the 3 Plaid MPs to ensure they could get anything through given 326 seats are needed for a majority

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=39&LAB=40&LIB=8&UKIP=3&Green=2&NewLAB=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017
    I think I can call 1% off the result as near enough right. Although my point in case it wasn't clear was that I shouldn't dismiss the worst one for Labour as it might similarly be close to accurate.

    Presumably with Sinn Fein abstentionism 323 would be enough, we do have a very friendly Green MP in the chamber if numbers are incredibly tight. Although I would expect some polling movement given events to play out with Brexit before any changes that could occur in the election campaign.
    Corbyn could form a working government with the SNP yes, Boris would then likely take over as leader of the Opposition. As the Tories would still be the largest party in the Commons he could go on the attack against the Corbyn government from day 1
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 2,163

    Nigelb said:

    1st like this day of the year!

    (Oh, I think I might have broken my resolution not to claim firsts!)

    Firsts are overrated.
    Grade inflation.

    Back in the 1900s even Einstein was not getting good grades and certainly not a first.

    "Einstein later recalled that after graduating in 1900 the “coercion” of being forced to take the final exams “had such a detrimental effect that… I found the consideration of any scientific problem distasteful to me for an entire year”. He achieved an overall mark of 4.91 out of 6, which is rather marginal. Academic positions were found for all members of the graduating class in the physics department of the ETH with the exception of Einstein, who seems to have been written off as virtually unemployable, “a pariah, discounted and little loved”, as he later said."

    Source: https://qbnets.wordpress.com/2015/03/09/the-truth-about-einsteins-bad-grades/
    Calls to mind Stefan Collini (What are Universities For?) speculating about how Socrates would have performed in a Research Assessment Exercise: Good teacher, but he's not published anything.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 981
    HYUFD said:

    Happy New Year everyone. Good Health and happiness to all.

    It’s difficult to put much trust in any poll these days given their poor recent track record. Personally, I think it will take a miracle for the Tories to win the next election, particularly if May stays. She is an abysmal campaigner, has no domestic policies and is the author of a Brexit deal which satisfies no one. A new leader has a chance but he or she will also need time to establish themselves which seems unlikely.

    Labour have similar problems. They are electorally toxic to too many people especially with Corbyn and McDonnell in their current positions.

    Britain needs a change of both leaders but politics being based upon patronage rather than ability, its difficult to see that happening. May will probably go when her Brexit deal is rejected but who knows when Corbyn will go. He seems safe as long as he has McCluskey’s backing and there are no signs of that changing.

    May will stay until next Decdmber at least, she will stick to her Deal through to Brexit Day given she cannot now be challenged for a year having won the VONC. No alternative Tory leader polls better than May and most poll worse
    I don’t think the polls have the reliability you claim for them particularly where May is concerned. I think she will go shortly after her Brexit deal fails to pass either because she loses a VONC in her Gov that Labour will inevitably table or because she will realise that having failed on Brexit she has lost her authority and the Party will need someone untarnished by her failures to have any chance of beating Corbyn.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 2,163
    eek said:
    The visual was accompanied by the 'London is open' message in sundry languages.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 9,869

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    FPT

    Nigelb said:
    Wrecking Carter's re-election bid was, while it might have seemed a good idea at the time, a grave mistake by the Iranians.
    I’ve always thought Carter one of the more underrated US Presidents, and Reagan not quite so good as he is thought to be. An alternate history where Carter was re-elected would be interesting.

    Carter was elected as after Nixon Americans wanted an honest, purer than pure candidate.

    However he turned out to be weak and oversaw the humiliation in Iran and a sluggish economy while it took Reagan to restore the American optimism and strength in the world it had not had since JFK was assassinated
    I don't think Carter was particularly 'weak'; however, he wasn't particularly good at delegating, or at dealing with Congress. He also came up against an unscrupulous enemy in the Iranians who felt, with good reason, that the Americans, and especially the oil companies, put their own interests first and those of Iran and it's people at best at 6th to 7th.
    It is not just the Iranians who were unscrupulous, if we are to believe the October Surprise conspiracy theory that Republicans arranged for the hostage release to be delayed until after Reagan was elected.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_Surprise_conspiracy_theory
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 21,849
    edited January 1
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Given historical polling performance the true picture with a GE tommorow could be anything from Lab +4/-4

    None of which would be enough for a Labour overall majority, though the Tories could win a tiny overall majority if they lead Labour by 4%
    Labour's margin for a Lib-Lab victory is probably very narrow. Probably SNP confidence and supply - contingent on a 2nd referendum though...
    Of course, that prospect wasn't thought anywhere near an outcome in 2017 (when it was much more about trimming May's massive projected majority). The 2015 election though WAS about the prospect of the SNP holding sway over Labour. And that did not play out well for Labour.


  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,305
    edited January 1
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Given historical polling performance the true picture with a GE tommorow could be anything from Lab +4/-4

    None of which would be enough for a Labour overall majority, though the Tories could win a tiny overall majority if they lead Labour by 4%
    Labour's margin for a Lib-Lab victory is probably very narrow. Probably SNP confidence and supply - contingent on a 2nd referendum though...
    SNP confidence and supply but not sure about a second referendum. Instead Sturgeon would just ensure Corbyn committed to the Single Market and Customs Union BINO Brexit the SNP would demand as the price of its support.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 7,187

    eek said:
    The visual was accompanied by the 'London is open' message in sundry languages.
    Fake news - its a Bank Holiday!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 6,220

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    FPT

    Nigelb said:
    Wrecking Carter's re-election bid was, while it might have seemed a good idea at the time, a grave mistake by the Iranians.
    I’ve always thought Carter one of the more underrated US Presidents, and Reagan not quite so good as he is thought to be. An alternate history where Carter was re-elected would be interesting.

    Carter was elected as after Nixon Americans wanted an honest, purer than pure candidate.

    However he turned out to be weak and oversaw the humiliation in Iran and a sluggish economy while it took Reagan to restore the American optimism and strength in the world it had not had since JFK was assassinated
    I don't think Carter was particularly 'weak'; however, he wasn't particularly good at delegating, or at dealing with Congress. He also came up against an unscrupulous enemy in the Iranians who felt, with good reason, that the Americans, and especially the oil companies, put their own interests first and those of Iran and it's people at best at 6th to 7th.
    I lived in Georgia in 1976, when Carter was elected, albeit in a prosperous Atlanta suburb that voted Republican.

    It wasn't just Watergate, but also post Vietnam that discredited the Washington elite. Carter was was seen almost as a "Mr Smith goes to Washington" populist figure. After Vietnam, US military intervention in Vietnam, or in other places such as Angola, was anathema. I cannot see a counterfactual with a different outcome in Iran being possible.

    The hostage crisis was humiliating, but also the oil crisis did him in. Carter was a good man though, and still is. His work since leaving office does him credit.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,305

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    FPT

    Nigelb said:
    Wrecking Carter's re-election bid was, while it might have seemed a good idea at the time, a grave mistake by the Iranians.
    I’ve always thought Carter one of the more underrated US Presidents, and Reagan not quite so good as he is thought to be. An alternate history where Carter was re-elected would be interesting.

    Carter was elected as after Nixon Americans wanted an honest, purer than pure candidate.

    However he turned out to be weak and oversaw the humiliation in Iran and a sluggish economy while it took Reagan to restore the American optimism and strength in the world it had not had since JFK was assassinated
    I don't think Carter was particularly 'weak'; however, he wasn't particularly good at delegating, or at dealing with Congress. He also came up against an unscrupulous enemy in the Iranians who felt, with good reason, that the Americans, and especially the oil companies, put their own interests first and those of Iran and it's people at best at 6th to 7th.
    Carter projected an image of US weakness abroad both in terms of the Soviets and Iranians and high inflation and sluggish growth Reagan reversed
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 2,163

    eek said:
    The visual was accompanied by the 'London is open' message in sundry languages.
    Fake news - its a Bank Holiday!
    London closes on Christmas Day. That's it.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 2,109

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Given historical polling performance the true picture with a GE tommorow could be anything from Lab +4/-4

    None of which would be enough for a Labour overall majority, though the Tories could win a tiny overall majority if they lead Labour by 4%
    Labour's margin for a Lib-Lab victory is probably very narrow. Probably SNP confidence and supply - contingent on a 2nd referendum though...
    Of course, that prospect wasn't thought anywhere near an outcome in 2017 (when it was much more about trimming May's massive projected majority). The 2015 election though WAS about the prospect of the SNP holding sway over Labour. And that did not play out well for Labour.
    I wonder how much the Tories deal with the DUP counters that tactic. It certainly helps blunt some of it and gives an easy comeback.

    Whilst I can imagine the SNP are very unpopular in some parts of England in terms of policies and things they have said the DUP can be pretty off putting to a wide range of people as well.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,305
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    I knew YouGov was the worst for Labour and that we had some better polling for Labour from other pollsters but I hadn't quite realised that there has only been one poll not showing Labour tied or leading aside from them.

    Quite surprised.

    Although shouldn't just write the worst one off completely, from a Conservative perspective the worst one was near enough right come election time.

    The most accurate pollster at the last general election was Survation who predicted just a 1% Tory lead in its final poll compared to the 2% lead the Tories ended up with.

    The latest Survation poll in the table above would still see the Tories largest party on 288 seats to 285 for Labour according to Electoral Calculus.

    However as there would be 38 SNP MPs Corbyn would be able to become PM of a minority government as Labour + SNP would be on 323 seats while the Tories plus DUP would be on only 298 seats. Though Labour would also likely need the support of the 17 LD MPs predicted or the 3 Plaid MPs to ensure they could get anything through given 326 seats are needed for a majority

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=39&LAB=40&LIB=8&UKIP=3&Green=2&NewLAB=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017
    It is not safe to assume that SNP, LD, or PC would support a Corbyn government. Indeed with such an outcome we would line up with Sweden or Germany with the difficulty of forming a coalition.

    I wouldnt read too much into polls though, as the circumstances that lead to an early GE would be likely to shatter the assumptions on which they are based.
    We know the SNP will not support the Tories and Sturgeon has made clear they would prop up Labour instead.

    I also cannot see the polls moving much at all as long as Corbyn leads Labour as most Tory voters fear and despise him while leftwingers love him and as long as Brexit is delivered
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 7,187

    eek said:
    The visual was accompanied by the 'London is open' message in sundry languages.
    Fake news - its a Bank Holiday!
    London closes on Christmas Day. That's it.
    I was thinking more about the City than the West End.

    Bankers still hung over from their #insert name of posh champagne that I've never heard of#.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 20,380

    HYUFD said:

    Happy New Year everyone. Good Health and happiness to all.

    It’s difficult to put much trust in any poll these days given their poor recent track record. Personally, I think it will take a miracle for the Tories to win the next election, particularly if May stays. She is an abysmal campaigner, has no domestic policies and is the author of a Brexit deal which satisfies no one. A new leader has a chance but he or she will also need time to establish themselves which seems unlikely.

    Labour have similar problems. They are electorally toxic to too many people especially with Corbyn and McDonnell in their current positions.

    Britain needs a change of both leaders but politics being based upon patronage rather than ability, its difficult to see that happening. May will probably go when her Brexit deal is rejected but who knows when Corbyn will go. He seems safe as long as he has McCluskey’s backing and there are no signs of that changing.

    May will stay until next Decdmber at least, she will stick to her Deal through to Brexit Day given she cannot now be challenged for a year having won the VONC. No alternative Tory leader polls better than May and most poll worse
    I don’t think the polls have the reliability you claim for them particularly where May is concerned. I think she will go shortly after her Brexit deal fails to pass either because she loses a VONC in her Gov that Labour will inevitably table or because she will realise that having failed on Brexit she has lost her authority and the Party will need someone untarnished by her failures to have any chance of beating Corbyn.
    TM is the most popular conservative leader among the voters and no other candidate at this time would maintain the conservative poll position. Indeed if her ratings are back to before the 2017 election, as suggested earlier, why on earth would she stand down. She is in an elected position and safe for 12 months

    As a matter of interest who is this shining star in the conservative party that is going to take the party to new election heights

  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,371
    HYUFD said:

    New Year's Day concert from Vienna on BBC2 now


    Fiddling whilst Rome burns?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,305

    HYUFD said:

    Happy New Year everyone. Good Health and happiness to all.

    It’s difficult to put much trust in any poll these days given their poor recent track record. Personally, I think it will take a miracle for the Tories to win the next election, particularly if May stays. She is an abysmal campaigner, has no domestic policies and is the author of a Brexit deal which satisfies no one. A new leader has a chance but he or she will also need time to establish themselves which seems unlikely.

    Labour have similar problems. They are electorally toxic to too many people especially with Corbyn and McDonnell in their current positions.

    Britain needs a change of both leaders but politics being based upon patronage rather than ability, its difficult to see that happening. May will probably go when her Brexit deal is rejected but who knows when Corbyn will go. He seems safe as long as he has McCluskey’s backing and there are no signs of that changing.

    May will stay until next Decdmber at least, she will stick to her Deal through to Brexit Day given she cannot now be challenged for a year having won the VONC. No alternative Tory leader polls better than May and most poll worse
    I don’t think the polls have the reliability you claim for them particularly where May is concerned. I think she will go shortly after her Brexit deal fails to pass either because she loses a VONC in her Gov that Labour will inevitably table or because she will realise that having failed on Brexit she has lost her authority and the Party will need someone untarnished by her failures to have any chance of beating Corbyn.
    Nope. May will press on regardless with her Brexit Deal even if it is rejected once or even twice given she cannot now be challenged for a year and once EUref2 and Norway Plus are proposed using the Grieve amendment and then also rejected the Deal becomes the default alternative to No Deal and could then pass.

    The only way May goes is if her Deal passed and the DUP VONC the government and Corbyn becomes PM after a general election or we go to No Deal and May loses a confidence vote from her own MPs next December. In both cases Boris Johnson would almost certainly succeed May as Tory leader

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 7,187

    HYUFD said:

    Happy New Year everyone. Good Health and happiness to all.

    It’s difficult to put much trust in any poll these days given their poor recent track record. Personally, I think it will take a miracle for the Tories to win the next election, particularly if May stays. She is an abysmal campaigner, has no domestic policies and is the author of a Brexit deal which satisfies no one. A new leader has a chance but he or she will also need time to establish themselves which seems unlikely.

    Labour have similar problems. They are electorally toxic to too many people especially with Corbyn and McDonnell in their current positions.

    Britain needs a change of both leaders but politics being based upon patronage rather than ability, its difficult to see that happening. May will probably go when her Brexit deal is rejected but who knows when Corbyn will go. He seems safe as long as he has McCluskey’s backing and there are no signs of that changing.

    May will stay until next Decdmber at least, she will stick to her Deal through to Brexit Day given she cannot now be challenged for a year having won the VONC. No alternative Tory leader polls better than May and most poll worse
    I don’t think the polls have the reliability you claim for them particularly where May is concerned. I think she will go shortly after her Brexit deal fails to pass either because she loses a VONC in her Gov that Labour will inevitably table or because she will realise that having failed on Brexit she has lost her authority and the Party will need someone untarnished by her failures to have any chance of beating Corbyn.
    TM is the most popular conservative leader among the voters and no other candidate at this time would maintain the conservative poll position. Indeed if her ratings are back to before the 2017 election, as suggested earlier, why on earth would she stand down. She is in an elected position and safe for 12 months

    As a matter of interest who is this shining star in the conservative party that is going to take the party to new election heights

    I think Hunt is just about the best you've got. If I was a Tory I would find that rather depressing.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 10,257
    edited January 1
    Three quarters of Labour MPs did or do not support their leader. Though the membership managed to override them I suspect their views are more reflective of Labour voters as a whole than the membership. I don'd have particular issues with Corbyn other than I know him to be an incompetent leader as seen during the Brexit referendum when I doubt he swung a single vote.

    So for the first time I'll be looking at the Greens. Leadership of political parties is important and I'm a big fan of Caroline Lucas
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 20,380

    HYUFD said:

    New Year's Day concert from Vienna on BBC2 now


    Fiddling whilst Rome burns?
    Looks like it is around the Eiffel Tower according to reports from Paris.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,305
    edited January 1

    HYUFD said:

    New Year's Day concert from Vienna on BBC2 now


    Fiddling whilst Rome burns?
    Austria is a very prosperous country doing well under its charismatic young centre right Chancellor Sebastian Kurz and that will still be the case for them Brexit or No Brexit
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 981

    HYUFD said:

    Happy New Year everyone. Good Health and happiness to all.

    It’s difficult to put much trust in any poll these days given their poor recent track record. Personally, I think it will take a miracle for the Tories to win the next election, particularly if May stays. She is an abysmal campaigner, has no domestic policies and is the author of a Brexit deal which satisfies no one. A new leader has a chance but he or she will also need time to establish themselves which seems unlikely.

    Labour have similar problems. They are electorally toxic to too many people especially with Corbyn and McDonnell in their current positions.

    Britain needs a change of both leaders but politics being based upon patronage rather than ability, its difficult to see that happening. May will probably go when her Brexit deal is rejected but who knows when Corbyn will go. He seems safe as long as he has McCluskey’s backing and there are no signs of that changing.

    May will stay until next Decdmber at least, she will stick to her Deal through to Brexit Day given she cannot now be challenged for a year having won the VONC. No alternative Tory leader polls better than May and most poll worse
    I don’t think the polls have the reliability you claim for them particularly where May is concerned. I think she will go shortly after her Brexit deal fails to pass either because she loses a VONC in her Gov that Labour will inevitably table or because she will realise that having failed on Brexit she has lost her authority and the Party will need someone untarnished by her failures to have any chance of beating Corbyn.
    TM is the most popular conservative leader among the voters and no other candidate at this time would maintain the conservative poll position. Indeed if her ratings are back to before the 2017 election, as suggested earlier, why on earth would she stand down. She is in an elected position and safe for 12 months

    As a matter of interest who is this shining star in the conservative party that is going to take the party to new election heights

    You don’t know Conservative Party members well if you think that. Even the ConHome poll of members shows that 66% want her to step down immediately. She is not going to find a more supportive group than those. It’s foolish to the point of absurdity to claim she is popular.

    Who I want as party leader is irrelevant. MPs will provide members with a shortlist of 2. I just hope there is Vote this time which was not the case when May became leader.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 981
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Happy New Year everyone. Good Health and happiness to all.

    It’s difficult to put much trust in any poll these days given their poor recent track record. Personally, I think it will take a miracle for the Tories to win the next election, particularly if May stays. She is an abysmal campaigner, has no domestic policies and is the author of a Brexit deal which satisfies no one. A new leader has a chance but he or she will also need time to establish themselves which seems unlikely.

    Labour have similar problems. They are electorally toxic to too many people especially with Corbyn and McDonnell in their current positions.

    Britain needs a change of both leaders but politics being based upon patronage rather than ability, its difficult to see that happening. May will probably go when her Brexit deal is rejected but who knows when Corbyn will go. He seems safe as long as he has McCluskey’s backing and there are no signs of that changing.

    May will stay until next Decdmber at least, she will stick to her Deal through to Brexit Day given she cannot now be challenged for a year having won the VONC. No alternative Tory leader polls better than May and most poll worse
    I don’t think the polls have the reliability you claim for them particularly where May is concerned. I think she will go shortly after her Brexit deal fails to pass either because she loses a VONC in her Gov that Labour will inevitably table or because she will realise that having failed on Brexit she has lost her authority and the Party will need someone untarnished by her failures to have any chance of beating Corbyn.
    Nope. May will press on regardless with her Brexit Deal even if it is rejected once or even twice given she cannot now be challenged for a year and once EUref2 and Norway Plus are proposed using the Grieve amendment and then also rejected the Deal becomes the default alternative to No Deal and could then pass.

    The only way May goes is if her Deal passed and the DUP VONC the government and Corbyn becomes PM after a general election or we go to No Deal and May loses a confidence vote from her own MPs next December. In both cases Boris Johnson would almost certainly succeed May as Tory leader

    We’ll see. I don’t think May wants her legacy to be a Corbyn Gov.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 3,167
    edited January 1
    Are we seeing the ceiling for a JC led labour?
    If they can't break the 40% barrier now, when will they? We know that it is historically possible, as the Tory Blair did so and I expect Kinnock / Smith also?

    TMay polls higher than other tories. When was the last time a party was in power and a member who was not PM had the highest poll rating? Did Brown poll above PM Blair? Any Tory above PM Thatcher or even PM Major?

    Possibly D Milliband over PM Brown?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 16,656

    HYUFD said:

    Happy New Year everyone. Good Health and happiness to all.

    It’s difficult to put much trust in any poll these days given their poor recent track record. Personally, I think it will take a miracle for the Tories to win the next election, particularly if May stays. She is an abysmal campaigner, has no domestic policies and is the author of a Brexit deal which satisfies no one. A new leader has a chance but he or she will also need time to establish themselves which seems unlikely.

    Labour have similar problems. They are electorally toxic to too many people especially with Corbyn and McDonnell in their current positions.

    Britain needs a change of both leaders but politics being based upon patronage rather than ability, its difficult to see that happening. May will probably go when her Brexit deal is rejected but who knows when Corbyn will go. He seems safe as long as he has McCluskey’s backing and there are no signs of that changing.

    May will stay until next Decdmber at least, she will stick to her Deal through to Brexit Day given she cannot now be challenged for a year having won the VONC. No alternative Tory leader polls better than May and most poll worse
    I don’t think the polls have the reliability you claim for them particularly where May is concerned. I think she will go shortly after her Brexit deal fails to pass either because she loses a VONC in her Gov that Labour will inevitably table or because she will realise that having failed on Brexit she has lost her authority and the Party will need someone untarnished by her failures to have any chance of beating Corbyn.
    TM is the most popular conservative leader among the voters and no other candidate at this time would maintain the conservative poll position. Indeed if her ratings are back to before the 2017 election, as suggested earlier, why on earth would she stand down. She is in an elected position and safe for 12 months

    As a matter of interest who is this shining star in the conservative party that is going to take the party to new election heights

    You don’t know Conservative Party members well if you think that. Even the ConHome poll of members shows that 66% want her to step down immediately. She is not going to find a more supportive group than those. It’s foolish to the point of absurdity to claim she is popular.

    Who I want as party leader is irrelevant. MPs will provide members with a shortlist of 2. I just hope there is Vote this time which was not the case when May became leader.
    She's not going to find a more supportive group than ContinuityIDS?

    Do you honestly believe that?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 16,656

    HYUFD said:

    Happy New Year everyone. Good Health and happiness to all.

    It’s difficult to put much trust in any poll these days given their poor recent track record. Personally, I think it will take a miracle for the Tories to win the next election, particularly if May stays. She is an abysmal campaigner, has no domestic policies and is the author of a Brexit deal which satisfies no one. A new leader has a chance but he or she will also need time to establish themselves which seems unlikely.

    Labour have similar problems. They are electorally toxic to too many people especially with Corbyn and McDonnell in their current positions.

    Britain needs a change of both leaders but politics being based upon patronage rather than ability, its difficult to see that happening. May will probably go when her Brexit deal is rejected but who knows when Corbyn will go. He seems safe as long as he has McCluskey’s backing and there are no signs of that changing.

    May will stay until next Decdmber at least, she will stick to her Deal through to Brexit Day given she cannot now be challenged for a year having won the VONC. No alternative Tory leader polls better than May and most poll worse
    I don’t think the polls have the reliability you claim for them particularly where May is concerned. I think she will go shortly after her Brexit deal fails to pass either because she loses a VONC in her Gov that Labour will inevitably table or because she will realise that having failed on Brexit she has lost her authority and the Party will need someone untarnished by her failures to have any chance of beating Corbyn.
    TM is the most popular conservative leader among the voters and no other candidate at this time would maintain the conservative poll position. Indeed if her ratings are back to before the 2017 election, as suggested earlier, why on earth would she stand down. She is in an elected position and safe for 12 months

    As a matter of interest who is this shining star in the conservative party that is going to take the party to new election heights

    She's popular with many just because she is in power and is the PM. That would transfer to her successor whoever he or she is.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,305

    HYUFD said:

    Happy New Year everyone. Good Health and happiness to all.

    It’s difficult to put much trust in any poll these days given their poor recent track record. Personally, I think it will take a miracle for the Tories to win the next election, particularly if May ging.

    May will stay until next Decdmber at least, she will stick to her Deal through to Brexit Day given she cannot now be challenged for a year having won the VONC. No alternative Tory leader polls better than May and most poll worse
    I don’t think the polls have the reliability you claim for them particularly where May is concerned. I think she will go shortly after her Brexit deal fails to pass either because she loses a VONC in her Gov that Labour will inevitably table or because she will realise that having failed on Brexit she has lost her authority and the Party will need someone untarnished by her failures to have any chance of beating Corbyn.
    TM is the most popular conservative leader among the voters and no other candidate at this time would maintain the conservative poll position. Indeed if her ratings are back to before the 2017 election, as suggested earlier, why on earth would she stand down. She is in an elected position and safe for 12 months

    As a matter of interest who is this shining star in the conservative party that is going to take the party to new election heights

    You don’t know Conservative Party members well if you think that. Even the ConHome poll of members shows that 66% want her to step down immediately. She is not going to find a more supportive group than those. It’s foolish to the point of absurdity to claim she is popular.

    Who I want as party leader is irrelevant. MPs will provide members with a shortlist of 2. I just hope there is Vote this time which was not the case when May became leader.
    Given May cannot now be challenged again until December 2019 under Tory Party rules what Tory MPs and members think is irrelevant until then, May is staying having won the confidence vote at the end of last year.

    May is also more popular with Tory voters as a whole
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 3,167
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Happy New Year everyone. Good Health and happiness to all.

    It’s difficult to put much trust in any poll these days given their poor recent track record. Personally, I think it will take a miracle for the Tories to win the next election, particularly if May ging.

    May will stay until next Decdmber at least, she will stick to her Deal through to Brexit Day given she cannot now be challenged for a year having won the VONC. No alternative Tory leader polls better than May and most poll worse
    I don’t think the polls have the reliability you claim for them particularly where May is concerned. I think she will go shortly after her Brexit deal fails to pass either because she loses a VONC in her Gov that Labour will inevitably table or because she will realise that having failed on Brexit she has lost her authority and the Party will need someone untarnished by her failures to have any chance of beating Corbyn.
    TM is the most popular conservative leader among the voters and no other candidate at this time would maintain the conservative poll position. Indeed if her ratings are back to before the 2017 election, as suggested earlier, why on earth would she stand down. She is in an elected position and safe for 12 months

    As a matter of interest who is this shining star in the conservative party that is going to take the party to new election heights

    You don’t know Conservative Party members well if you think that. Even the ConHome poll of members shows that 66% want her to step down immediately. She is not going to find a more supportive group than those. It’s foolish to the point of absurdity to claim she is popular.

    Who I want as party leader is irrelevant. MPs will provide members with a shortlist of 2. I just hope there is Vote this time which was not the case when May became leader.
    Given May cannot now be challenged again until December 2019 under Tory Party rules what Tory MPs and members think is irrelevant until then, May is staying having won the confidence vote at the end of last year.

    May is also more popular with Tory voters as a whole
    Under current Tory Party rules.

    1922 can amend as they wish.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,305
    edited January 1

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Happy New Year everyone. Good Health and happiness to all.

    It’s difficult to put much trust in any poll these days given their poor recent track record. Personally, I think it will take a miracle for the Tories to win the next election, particularly if May stays. She is an abysmal campaigner, has no domestic policies and is the author of a Brexit deal which satisfies no one. A new leader has a chance but he or she will also need time to establish themselves which seems unlikely.

    Labour have similar problems. They are electorally toxic to too many people especially with Corbyn and McDonnell in their current positions.

    Britain needs a change of both leaders but politics being based upon patronage rather than ability, its difficult to see that happening. May will probably go when her Brexit deal is rejected but who knows when Corbyn will go. He seems safe as long as he has McCluskey’s backing and there are no signs of that changing.

    May will stay until next Decdmber at least, she will stick to her Deal through to Brexit Day given she cannot now be challenged for a year having won the VONC. No alternative Tory leader polls better than May and most poll worse
    I don’t think the polls have the reliability you claim for them particularly where May is concerned. I think she will go shortly after her Brexit deal fails to pass either because she loses a VONC in her Gov that Labour will inevitably table or because she will realise that having failed on Brexit she has lost her authority and the Party will need someone untarnished by her failures to have any chance of beating Corbyn.
    Nope. May will press on regardless with her Brexit Deal even if it is rejected once or even twice given she cannot now be challenged for a year and once EUref2 and Norway Plus are proposed using the Grieve amendment and then also rejected the Deal becomes the default alternative to No Deal and could then pass.

    The only way May goes is if her Deal passed and the DUP VONC the government and Corbyn becomes PM after a general election or we go to No Deal and May loses a confidence vote from her own MPs next December. In both cases Boris Johnson would almost certainly succeed May as Tory leader

    We’ll see. I don’t think May wants her legacy to be a Corbyn Gov.
    Well a Corbyn government would be the likely result of No Deal so obviously she does not want that which is why she is sticking by her Deal as an alternative to No Deal leading to a Corbyn and SNP government and single market and Customs Union BINO
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,305
    philiph said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Happy New Year everyone. Good Health and happiness to all.

    It’s difficult to put much trust in any poll these days given their poor recent track record. Personally, I think it will take a miracle for the Tories to win the next election, particularly if May ging.

    May will stay until next Decdmber at least, she will stick to her Deal through to Brexit Day given she cannot now be challenged for a year having won the VONC. No alternative Tory leader polls better than May and most poll worse
    I don’t think the polls have the reliability you claim for them particularly where May is concerned. I think she will go shortly after her Brexit deal fails to pass either because she loses a VONC in her Gov that Labour will inevitably table or because she will realise that having failed on Brexit she has lost her authority and the Party will need someone untarnished by her failures to have any chance of beating Corbyn.
    TM is the most popular conservative leader among the voters and no other candidate at this time would maintain the conservative poll position. Indeed if her ratings are back to before the 2017 election, as suggested earlier, why on earth would she stand down. She is in an elected position and safe for 12 months

    As a matter of interest who is this shining star in the conservative party that is going to take the party to new election heights

    You don’t know Conservative Party members well if you think that. Even the ConHome poll of members shows that 66% want her to step down immediately. She is not going to find a more supportive group than those. It’s foolish to the point of absurdity to claim she is popular.

    Who I want as party leader is irrelevant. MPs will provide members with a shortlist of 2. I just hope there is Vote this time which was not the case when May became leader.
    Given May cannot now be challenged again until December 2019 under Tory Party rules what Tory MPs and members think is irrelevant until then, May is staying having won the confidence vote at the end of last year.

    May is also more popular with Tory voters as a whole
    Under current Tory Party rules.

    1922 can amend as they wish.
    Highly unlikely under Sir Graham, knighted by his pal Theresa, Brady
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 981
    edited January 1
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Happy New Year everyone. Good Health and happiness to all.

    It’s difficult to put much trust in any poll these days given their poor recent track record. Personally, I think it will take a miracle for the Tories to win the next election, particularly if May ging.

    May will stay until next Decdmber at least, she will stick to her Deal through to Brexit Day given she cannot now be challenged for a year having won the VONC. No alternative Tory leader polls better than May and most poll worse
    I don’t think the polls have the reliability you claim for them particularly where May is concerned. I think she will go shortly after her Brexit deal fails to pass either because she loses a VONC in her Gov that Labour will inevitably table or because she will realise that having failed on Brexit she has lost her authority and the Party will need someone untarnished by her failures to have any chance of beating Corbyn.
    TM is the most popular conservative leader among the voters and no other candidate at this time would maintain the conservative poll position. Indeed if her ratings are back to before the 2017 election, as suggested earlier, why on earth would she stand down. She is in an elected position and safe for 12 months

    As a matter of interest who is this shining star in the conservative party that is going to take the party to new election heights

    You don’t know Conservative Party members well if you think that. Even the ConHome poll of members shows that 66% want her to step down immediately. She is not going to find a more supportive group than those. It’s foolish to the point of absurdity to claim she is popular.

    Who I want as party leader is irrelevant. MPs will provide members with a shortlist of 2. I just hope there is Vote this time which was not the case when May became leader.
    Given May cannot now be challenged again until December 2019 under Tory Party rules what Tory MPs and members think is irrelevant until then, May is staying having won the confidence vote at the end of last year.

    May is also more popular with Tory voters as a whole
    She can certainly be challenged . She could lose an opposition proposed no confidence vote in her Gov or be faced with mass resignations from her Cabinet. All she is safe from is a challenge from her parliamentary party. I doubt even May would want to go the same way as Callaghan.

    The party will struggle to find enough supporters to canvass and campaign as it is. Be even worse with May as leader.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 16,656
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Happy New Year everyone. Good Health and happiness to all.

    It’s difficult to put much trust in any poll these days given their poor recent track record. Personally, I think it will take a miracle for the Tories to win the next election, particularly if May ging.

    May will stay until next Decdmber at least, she will stick to her Deal through to Brexit Day given she cannot now be challenged for a year having won the VONC. No alternative Tory leader polls better than May and most poll worse
    I don’t think the polls have the reliability you claim for them particularly where May is concerned. I think she will go shortly after her Brexit deal fails to pass either because she loses a VONC in her Gov that Labour will inevitably table or because she will realise that having failed on Brexit she has lost her authority and the Party will need someone untarnished by her failures to have any chance of beating Corbyn.
    TM is the most popular conservative leader among the voters and no other candidate at this time would maintain the conservative poll position. Indeed if her ratings are back to before the 2017 election, as suggested earlier, why on earth would she stand down. She is in an elected position and safe for 12 months

    As a matter of interest who is this shining star in the conservative party that is going to take the party to new election heights

    You don’t know Conservative Party members well if you think that. Even the ConHome poll of members shows that 66% want her to step down immediately. She is not going to find a more supportive group than those. It’s foolish to the point of absurdity to claim she is popular.

    Who I want as party leader is irrelevant. MPs will provide members with a shortlist of 2. I just hope there is Vote this time which was not the case when May became leader.
    Given May cannot now be challenged again until December 2019 under Tory Party rules what Tory MPs and members think is irrelevant until then, May is staying having won the confidence vote at the end of last year.

    May is also more popular with Tory voters as a whole
    Not true. While current rules make that true the nuclear option is that it only takes a simple majority to change the rules. So it's absolutely not irrelevant and while that is unlikely May would be very hubristic to pretend her MPs are irrelevant. I doubt she would.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 20,380
    edited January 1

    HYUFD said:

    Happy New Year everyone. Good Health and happiness to all.

    It’s difficult to put much trust in any poll these days given their poor recent track record. .

    May will stay until next Decdmber at least, she will stick to her Deal through to Brexit Day given she cannot now be challenged for a year having won the VONC. No alternative Tory leader polls better than May and most poll worse
    I don’t think the polls have the reliability you claim for them particularly where May is concerned. I think she will go shortly after her Brexit deal fails to pass either because she loses a VONC in her Gov that Labour will inevitably table or because she will realise that having failed on Brexit she has lost her authority and the Party will need someone untarnished by her failures to have any chance of beating Corbyn.
    TM is the most popular conservative leader among the voters and no other candidate at this time would maintain the conservative poll position. Indeed if her ratings are back to before the 2017 election, as suggested earlier, why on earth would she stand down. She is in an elected position and safe for 12 months

    As a matter of interest who is this shining star in the conservative party that is going to take the party to new election heights

    You don’t know Conservative Party members well if you think that. Even the ConHome poll of members shows that 66% want her to step down immediately. She is not going to find a more supportive group than those. It’s foolish to the point of absurdity to claim she is popular.

    Who I want as party leader is irrelevant. MPs will provide members with a shortlist of 2. I just hope there is Vote this time which was not the case when May became leader.
    'She is not going to find a more supportive group than those. It’s foolish to the point of absurdity to claim she is popular'.

    Your comments above and reference to ConHome says it all really. Conhome are the UKIP fan club and they do not like TM Brexit as they want to walk away with no deal no matter the consequences.

    They do not not represent my wife and I who are both voting members of the party and a majority view among our conservative mps and voters who reject their extreme crash out Brexit. Even Tim Montgomerie rejects their view and supports TM deal
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 981

    HYUFD said:

    Happy New Year everyone. Good Health and happiness to all.

    Labour have similar problems. They are electorally toxic to too many people especially with Corbyn and McDonnell in their current positions.

    Britain needs a change of both leaders but politics being based upon patronage rather than ability, its difficult to see that happening. May will probably go when her Brexit deal is rejected but who knows when Corbyn will go. He seems safe as long as he has McCluskey’s backing and there are no signs of that changing.

    May will stay until next Decdmber at least, she will stick to her Deal through to Brexit Day given she cannot now be challenged for a year having won the VONC. No alternative Tory leader polls better than May and most poll worse
    I don’t think the polls have the reliability you claim for them particularly where May is concerned. I think she will go shortly after her Brexit deal fails to pass either because she loses a VONC in her Gov that Labour will inevitably table or because she will realise that having failed on Brexit she has lost her authority and the Party will need someone untarnished by her failures to have any chance of beating Corbyn.
    TM is the most popular conservative leader among the voters and no other candidate at this time would maintain the conservative poll position. Indeed if her ratings are back to before the 2017 election, as suggested earlier, why on earth would she stand down. She is in an elected position and safe for 12 months

    As a matter of interest who is this shining star in the conservative party that is going to take the party to new election heights

    You don’t know Conservative Party members well if you think that. Even the ConHome poll of members shows that 66% want her to step down immediately. She is not going to find a more supportive group than those. It’s foolish to the point of absurdity to claim she is popular.

    Who I want as party leader is irrelevant. MPs will provide members with a shortlist of 2. I just hope there is Vote this time which was not the case when May became leader.
    She's not going to find a more supportive group than ContinuityIDS?

    Do you honestly believe that?
    Tory members voted Cameron as leader. Continuity IDS they are not. And yes, I do believe party members are the most loyal group to any incumbent leader, even May.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 20,380

    HYUFD said:

    Happy New Year everyone. Good Health and happiness to all.

    It’s difficult to put much trust in any poll these days given their poor recent track record. Personally, I think it will take a miracle for the Tories to win the next election, particularly if May stays. She is an abysmal campaigner, has no domestic policies and is the author of a Brexit deal which satisfies no one. A new leader has a chance but he or she will also need time to establish themselves which seems unlikely.

    Labour have similar problems. They are electorally toxic to too many people especially with Corbyn and McDonnell in their current positions.

    Britain needs a change of both leaders but politics being based upon patronage rather than ability, its difficult to see that happening. May will probably go when her Brexit deal is rejected but who knows when Corbyn will go. He seems safe as long as he has McCluskey’s backing and there are no signs of that changing.

    May will stay until next Decdmber at least, she will stick to her Deal through to Brexit Day given she cannot now be challenged for a year having won the VONC. No alternative Tory leader polls better than May and most poll worse
    I don’t think the polls have the reliability you claim for them particularly where May is concerned. I think she will go shortly after her Brexit deal fails to pass either because she loses a VONC in her Gov that Labour will inevitably table or because she will realise that having failed on Brexit she has lost her authority and the Party will need someone untarnished by her failures to have any chance of beating Corbyn.
    TM is the most popular conservative leader among the voters and no other candidate at this time would maintain the conservative poll position. Indeed if her ratings are back to before the 2017 election, as suggested earlier, why on earth would she stand down. She is in an elected position and safe for 12 months

    As a matter of interest who is this shining star in the conservative party that is going to take the party to new election heights

    I think Hunt is just about the best you've got. If I was a Tory I would find that rather depressing.
    Only balanced by labour having Corbyn to be honest
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,305

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Happy New Year everyone. Good Health and happiness to all.

    It’s difficult to put much trust in any poll these days given their poor recent track record. Personally, I think it will take a miracle for the Tories to win the next election, particularly if May ging.

    May will stay until next Decdmber at least, she will stick to her Deal through to Brexit Day given she cannot now be challenged for a year having won the VONC. No alternative Tory leader polls better than May and most poll worse
    I don’t think the polls have the reliability you claim for them particularly where May is concerned. I think she will go shortly after her Brexit deal fails to pass either because she loses a VONC yn.
    TM is the most popular conservative leader among the voters and no other candidate at this time would maintain the conservative poll position. Indeed if her ratings are back to before the 2017 election, as suggested earlier, why on earth would she stand down. She is in an elected positio
    You don’t know Conservative Party members well if you think that. Even the ConHome poll of members shows that 66% want her to step down immediately. She is not going to find a more supportive group than those. It’s foolish to the point of absurdity to claim she is popular.

    Who I want as party leader is irrelevant. MPs will provide members with a shortlist of 2. I just hope there is Vote this time which was not the case when May became leader.
    Given May cannot now be challenged again until December 2019 under Tory Party rules what Tory MPs and members think is irrelevant until then, May is staying having won the confidence vote at the end of last year.

    May is also more popular with Tory voters as a whole
    She can certainly be challenged . She could lose a no confidence vote or be faced with mass resignations from her Cabinet. All she is safe from is a challenge from her parliamentary party. I doubt even May would want to go the same way as Callaghan.

    The party will struggle to find enough supporters to canvass and campaign as it is. Be even worse with May as leader.
    No she cannot be challenged. Under Tory rules no no confidence vote can be held against May for another year. May has survived plenty of resignations from her Cabinet already and is stubborn enough to plough on regardless. She matches Corbyn in that respect who is still there despite virtually all the previous Shadow Cabinet resigning

    From.experience I know plenty of Tory volunteers out and campaigning we are not all No Deal Kipper diehards like you
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,371
    After Brexit the supreme court is unlikely to continue referring questions about EU law to the European court of justice in Luxembourg. “We shall have to work it out for ourselves,” she said. “Whether it will be for the better or worse, we don’t know.” says Lady Hale, Supreme Court Head.

    https://www.theguardian.com/law/2019/jan/01/lady-hale-supreme-court-president-judges-diversity
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 6,220

    HYUFD said:

    Happy New Year everyone. Good Health and happiness to all.

    It’s difficult to put much trust in any poll these days given their poor recent track record. Personally, I think it will take a miracle for the Tories to win the next election, particularly if May stays. She is an abysmal campaigner, has no domestic policies and is the author of a Brexit deal which satisfies no one. A new leader has a chance but he or she will also need time to establish themselves which seems unlikely.

    Labour have similar problems. They are electorally toxic to too many people especially with Corbyn and McDonnell in their current positions.

    Britain needs a change of both leaders but politics being based upon patronage rather than ability, its difficult to see that happening. May will probably go when her Brexit deal is rejected but who knows when Corbyn will go. He seems safe as long as he has McCluskey’s backing and there are no signs of that changing.

    May will stay until next Decdmber at least, she will stick to her Deal through to Brexit Day given she cannot now be challenged for a year having won the VONC. No alternative Tory leader polls better than May and most poll worse
    I don’t think the polls have the reliability you claim for them particularly where May is concerned. I think she will go shortly after her Brexit deal fails to pass either because she loses a VONC in her Gov that Labour will inevitably table or because she will realise that having failed on Brexit she has lost her authority and the Party will need someone untarnished by her failures to have any chance of beating Corbyn.
    TM is the most popular conservative leader among the voters and no other candidate at this time would maintain the conservative poll position. Indeed if her ratings are back to before the 2017 election, as suggested earlier, why on earth would she stand down. She is in an elected position and safe for 12 months

    As a matter of interest who is this shining star in the conservative party that is going to take the party to new election heights

    She's popular with many just because she is in power and is the PM. That would transfer to her successor whoever he or she is.
    Yes, that is so. There are many Tory members (including my mother) who always back the current leader, until the leadership changes. They have a loyalty that is almost Trotskyite in nature.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,305
    edited January 1

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Happy New Year everyone. Good Health and happiness to all.

    It’s difficult to put much trust in any poll these days given their poor recent track record. Personally, I think it will take a miracle for the Tories to win the next election, particularly if May ging.

    May will stay until next Decdmber at least, she will stick to her Deal through to Brexit Day given she cannot now be challenged for a year having won the VONC. No alternative Tory leader polls better than May and most poll worse
    I don’t think the polls have the reliability you claim for them particularly where May is concerned. I think she will go shortly after her Brexit deal fails to pass either because she loses a VONC in her Gov that Labour will inevitably table or because she will realise that having failed on Brexit she has lost her authority and the Party will need someone untarnished by her failures to have any chance of beating Corbyn.
    TM is the most popular conservative leader among the voters and no other candidate at this time would maintain the conservative pohs

    As a matter of interest who is this shining star in the conservative party that is going to take the party to new election heights

    You don’t know Conservative Party members well if you think that. Even the ConHome poll of members shows that 66% want her to step down immediately. She is not going to find a more supportive group than those. It’s foolish to the point of absurdity to claim she is popular.

    Who I want as party leader is irrelevant. MPs will provide members with a shortlist of 2. I just hope there is Vote this time which was not the case when May became leader.
    Given May cannot now be challenged again until December 2019 under Tory Party rules what Tory MPs and members think is irrelevant until then, May is staying having won the confidence vote at the end of last year.

    May is also more popular with Tory voters as a whole
    Not true. While current rules make that true the nuclear option is that it only takes a simple majority to change the rules. So it's absolutely not irrelevant and while that is unlikely May would be very hubristic to pretend her MPs are irrelevant. I doubt she would.
    Tory MPs voted 2/3 to back May, they are not now going to change the party rules nor is May loyalist 1922 chair Sir Graham Brady going to have any interest in allowing the process to do so.

    The only likely alternative to May is a No Dealer anyway and most Tory MPs will not risk that
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 16,656
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Happy New Year everyone. Good Health and happiness to all.

    It’s difficult to put much trust in any poll these days given their poor recent track record. Personally, I think it will take a miracle for the Tories to win the next election, particularly if May stays. She is an abysmal campaigner, has no domestic policies and is the author of a Brexit deal which satisfies no one. A new leader has a chance but he or she will also need time to establish themselves which seems unlikely.

    Labour have similar problems. They are electorally toxic to too many people especially with Corbyn and McDonnell in their current positions.

    Britain needs a change of both leaders but politics being based upon patronage rather than ability, its difficult to see that happening. May will probably go when her Brexit deal is rejected but who knows when Corbyn will go. He seems safe as long as he has McCluskey’s backing and there are no signs of that changing.

    May will stay until next Decdmber at least, she will stick to her Deal through to Brexit Day given she cannot now be challenged for a year having won the VONC. No alternative Tory leader polls better than May and most poll worse
    I don’t think the polls have the reliability you claim for them particularly where May is concerned. I think she will go shortly after her Brexit deal fails to pass either because she loses a VONC in her Gov that Labour will inevitably table or because she will realise that having failed on Brexit she has lost her authority and the Party will need someone untarnished by her failures to have any chance of beating Corbyn.
    TM is the most popular conservative leader among the voters and no other candidate at this time would maintain the conservative poll position. Indeed if her ratings are back to before the 2017 election, as suggested earlier, why on earth would she stand down. She is in an elected position and safe for 12 months

    As a matter of interest who is this shining star in the conservative party that is going to take the party to new election heights

    She's popular with many just because she is in power and is the PM. That would transfer to her successor whoever he or she is.
    Yes, that is so. There are many Tory members (including my mother) who always back the current leader, until the leadership changes. They have a loyalty that is almost Trotskyite in nature.
    While the inverse is also true. She is hated by many just because she is a Tory PM and that would also transfer. It isn't a one way street.

    And it exists in other parties too. Look at those like Nick Palmer who can be devotedly loyal to both Blair and Corbyn.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 981
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Happy New Year everyone. Good Health and happiness to all.

    It’s difficult to put much trust in any poll these days given their poor recent track record. Personally, I think it will take a miracle for the Tories to win the next election, particularly if May ging.

    May will stay until next Decdmber at least, she will stick to her Deal through to Brexit Day given she cannot now be challenged for a year having won the VONC. No alternative Tory leader polls better than May and most poll worse
    I don’t think the polls have the reliability you claim for them particularly where May is concerned. I think she will go shortly after her Brexit deal fails to pass either because she loses a VONC yn.
    You don’t know Conservative Party members well if you think that. Even the ConHome poll of members shows that 66% want her to step down immediately. She is not going to find a more supportive group than those. It’s foolish to the point of absurdity to claim she is popular.

    Who I want as party leader is irrelevant. MPs will provide members with a shortlist of 2. I just hope there is Vote this time which was not the case when May became leader.
    Given May cannot now be challenged again until December 2019 under Tory Party rules what Tory MPs and members think is irrelevant until then, May is staying having won the confidence vote at the end of last year.

    May is also more popular with Tory voters as a whole
    She can certainly be challenged . She could lose a no confidence vote or be faced with mass resignations from her Cabinet. All she is safe from is a challenge from her parliamentary party. I doubt even May would want to go the same way as Callaghan.

    The party will struggle to find enough supporters to canvass and campaign as it is. Be even worse with May as leader.
    No she cannot be challenged. Under Tory rules no no confidence vote can be held against May for another year. May has survived plenty of resignations from her Cabinet already and is stubborn enough to plough on regardless. She matches Corbyn in that respect who is still there despite virtually all the previous Shadow Cabinet resigning

    From.experience I know plenty of Tory volunteers out and campaigning we are not all No Deal Kipper diehards like you
    Facts never were your strong point. Accusing me of being a kipper is an factually incorrect and asinine as if I were to call you a LibDem. Such insults are puerile.

    Still if that’s your only substantive comment, go knock yourself out.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 20,380

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Happy New Year everyone. Good Health and happiness to all.

    It’s difficult to put much trust in any poll these days given their poor recent track record. Personally, I think it will take a miracle for the Tories to win the next election, particularly if May ging.

    I don’t think the polls have the reliability you claim for them particularly where May is concerned. I think she will go shortly after her Brexit deal fails to pass either because she loses a VONC in her Gov that Labour will inevitably table or because she will realise that having failed on Brexit she has lost her authority and the Party will need someone untarnished by her failures to have any chance of beating Corbyn.
    TM is the most popular conservative leader among the voters and no other candidate at this time would maintain the conservative poll position. Indeed if her ratings are back to before the 2017 election, as suggested earlier, why on earth would she stand down. She is in an elected position and safe for 12 months

    As a matter of interest who is this shining star in the conservative party that is going to take the party to new election heights

    You don’t know Conservative Party members well if you think that. Even the ConHome poll of members shows that 66% want her to step down immediately. She is not going to find a more supportive group than those. It’s foolish to the point of absurdity to claim she is popular.

    Who I want as party leader is irrelevant. MPs will provide members with a shortlist of 2. I just hope there is Vote this time which was not the case when May became leader.
    Given May cannot now be challenged again until December 2019 under Tory Party rules what Tory MPs and members think is irrelevant until then, May is staying having won the confidence vote at the end of last year.

    May is also more popular with Tory voters as a whole
    She can certainly be challenged . She could lose an opposition proposed no confidence vote in her Gov or be faced with mass resignations from her Cabinet. All she is safe from is a challenge from her parliamentary party. I doubt even May would want to go the same way as Callaghan.

    The party will struggle to find enough supporters to canvass and campaign as it is. Be even worse with May as leader.
    You are becoming rather comical in your desire to see TM overthrown. Your reference to ConHome says it all about your wider knowledge of my party
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 981

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Happy New Year everyone. Good Health and happiness to all.

    It’s difficult to put much trust in any poll these days given their poor recent track record. Personally, I think it will take a miracle for the Tories to win the next election, particularly if May ging.

    I don’t think the polls have the reliability you claim for them particularly where May is concerned. I think she will go shortly after her Brexit deal fails to pass either because she loses a VONC in her Gov that Labour will inevitably table or because she will realise that having failed on Brexit she has lost her authority and the Party will need someone untarnished by her failures to have any chance of beating Corbyn.
    TM is the most popular conservative leader among the voters and no other candidate at this time would maintain the conservative poll position. Indeed if her ratings are back to before the 2017 election, as suggested earlier, why on earth would she stand down. She is in an elected position and safe for 12 months

    As a matter of interest who is this shining star in the conservative party that is going to take the party to new election heights

    You don’t know Conservative Party members well if you think that. Even the ConHome poll of members shows that 66% want her to step down immediately. She is not going to find a more supportive group than those. It’s foolish to the point of absurdity to claim she is popular.

    Who I want as party leader is irrelevant. MPs will provide members with a shortlist of 2. I just hope there is Vote this time which was not the case when May became leader.
    Given May cannot now be challenged again until December 2019 under Tory Party rules what Tory MPs and members think is irrelevant until then, May is staying having won the confidence vote at the end of last year.

    May is also more popular with Tory voters as a whole
    She can certainly be challenged . She could lose an opposition proposed no confidence vote in her Gov or be faced with mass resignations from her Cabinet. All she is safe from is a challenge from her parliamentary party. I doubt even May would want to go the same way as Callaghan.

    The party will struggle to find enough supporters to canvass and campaign as it is. Be even worse with May as leader.
    You are becoming rather comical in your desire to see TM overthrown. Your reference to ConHome says it all about your wider knowledge of my party
    Wider knowledge - very funny. I’ll leave you to your ignorance
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 16,656
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given May cannot now be challenged again until December 2019 under Tory Party rules what Tory MPs and members think is irrelevant until then, May is staying having won the confidence vote at the end of last year.

    May is also more popular with Tory voters as a whole

    Not true. While current rules make that true the nuclear option is that it only takes a simple majority to change the rules. So it's absolutely not irrelevant and while that is unlikely May would be very hubristic to pretend her MPs are irrelevant. I doubt she would.
    Tory MPs voted 2/3 to back May, they are not now going to change the party rules nor is May loyalist 1922 chair Sir Graham Brady going to have any interest in allowing the process to do so
    They're not going to today. Based on May giving them certain commitments.

    If May breaks those commitments and starts to act like an Imperial Dictator acting like her own MPs are in your words "irrelevant" then that could swiftly change. Her own cabinet could quickly turn on her and that would easily swing 1/6 needed to remove her majority.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 20,380

    HYUFD said:

    Happy New Year everyone. Good Health and happiness to all.

    Labour have similar problems. They are electorally toxic to too many people especially with Corbyn and McDonnell in their current positions.

    Britain needs a change of both leaders but politics being based upon patronage rather than ability, its difficult to see that happening. May will probably go when her Brexit deal is rejected but who knows when Corbyn will go. He seems safe as long as he has McCluskey’s backing and there are no signs of that changing.

    May will stay until next Decdmber at least, she will stick to her Deal through to Brexit Day given she cannot now be challenged for a year having won the VONC. No alternative Tory leader polls better than May and most poll worse
    I don’t think the polls have the reliability you claim for them particularly where May is concerned. I think she will go shortly after her Brexit deal fails to pass either because she loses a VONC in her Gov that Labour will inevitably table or because she will realise that having failed on Brexit she has lost her authority and the Party will need someone untarnished by her failures to have any chance of beating Corbyn.
    TM is the most popular conservative leader among the voters and no other candidate at this time would maintain the conservative poll position. Indeed if her ratings are back to before the 2017 election, as suggested earlier, why on earth would she stand down. She is in an elected position and safe for 12 months

    As a matter of interest who is this shining star in the conservative party that is going to take the party to new election heights

    You don’t know Conservative Party members well if you think that. Even the ConHome poll of members shows that 66% want her to step down immediately. She is not going to find a more supportive group than those. It’s foolish to the point of absurdity to claim she is popular.

    Who I want as party leader is irrelevant. MPs will provide members with a shortlist of 2. I just hope there is Vote this time which was not the case when May became leader.
    She's not going to find a more supportive group than ContinuityIDS?

    Do you honestly believe that?
    Tory members voted Cameron as leader. Continuity IDS they are not. And yes, I do believe party members are the most loyal group to any incumbent leader, even May.
    Not ConHome members
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,305

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Happy New Year everyone. Good Health and happiness to all.

    It’s difficult to put much trust in any poll these days given their poor recent track record. Personally, I think it will take a miracle for the Tories to win the next election, particularly if May ging.

    May will stay until next Decdmber at least, she will stick to her Deal through to Brexit Day given she cannot now be challenged for a year having won the VONC. No alternative Tory leader polls better than May and most poll worse
    I don’t think the polls have the reliability you claim for them particularly where May is concerned. I think she will go shortly after her Brexit deal fails to pass either because she loses a VONC yn.
    You don’t know Conservative Party members well if you think n May became leader.
    Given May cannot now be challenged again until December 2019 under Tory Party rules what Tory MPs and members think is irrelevant until then, May is staying having won the confidence vote at the end of last year.

    May is also more popular with Tory voters as a whole
    She can certainly be challenged . She could lose a no confidence vote or be faced with mass resignations from her Cabinet. All she is safe from is a challenge from her parliamentary party. I doubt even May would want to go the same way as Callaghan.

    The party will struggle to find enough supporters to canvass and campaign as it is. Be even worse with May as leader.
    No she cannot be challenged. Under Tory rules no no confidence vote can be held against May for another year. May has survived plenty of resignations from her Cabinet already and is stubborn enough to plough on regardless. She matches Corbyn in that respect who is still there despite virtually all the previous Shadow Cabinet resigning

    From.experience I know plenty of Tory volunteers out and campaigning we are not all No Deal Kipper diehards like you
    Facts never were your strong point. Accusing me of being a kipper is an factually incorrect and asinine as if I were to call you a LibDem. Such insults are puerile.

    Still if that’s your only substantive comment, go knock yourself out.
    It is a fact, you are a No Dealer and the polling shows the only party a clear majority of whose voters have always backed No Deal is UKIP. You are a Kipper in all but name
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 16,656


    Wider knowledge - very funny. I’ll leave you to your ignorance

    Big_G is 100% right. The party is much wider than kipper central ConHome.

    Anyone who confuses ConHome with the Party is a joke.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 2,109
    Roger said:

    Three quarters of Labour MPs did or do not support their leader. Though the membership managed to override them I suspect their views are more reflective of Labour voters as a whole than the membership. I don'd have particular issues with Corbyn other than I know him to be an incompetent leader as seen during the Brexit referendum when I doubt he swung a single vote.

    So for the first time I'll be looking at the Greens. Leadership of political parties is important and I'm a big fan of Caroline Lucas

    I don't see much proof of a swathe of centrist thinking across Labour voters, it seems to be some of the MPs who were out of touch with the membership and the Labour voters.

    Also in fairness to many of the Labour MPs they went along with it because so many of their colleagues were going through with it and because they thought he was unelectable. Given that there wouldn't be the momentum there now and Corbyn isn't the electoral liability they thought he was it would be far fewer than three quarters.

    The Greens are a great choice, I've always liked Lucas.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,305

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given May cannot now be challenged again until December 2019 under Tory Party rules what Tory MPs and members think is irrelevant until then, May is staying having won the confidence vote at the end of last year.

    May is also more popular with Tory voters as a whole

    Not true. While current rules make that true the nuclear option is that it only takes a simple majority to change the rules. So it's absolutely not irrelevant and while that is unlikely May would be very hubristic to pretend her MPs are irrelevant. I doubt she would.
    Tory MPs voted 2/3 to back May, they are not now going to change the party rules nor is May loyalist 1922 chair Sir Graham Brady going to have any interest in allowing the process to do so
    They're not going to today. Based on May giving them certain commitments.

    If May breaks those commitments and starts to act like an Imperial Dictator acting like her own MPs are in your words "irrelevant" then that could swiftly change. Her own cabinet could quickly turn on her and that would easily swing 1/6 needed to remove her majority.
    Her own Cabinet has no alternative Brexit plan, May has won the no confidence vote and will now plough on regardless for the next year unchallenged. Tory rules cannot be changed anyway without the support of the 1922 committee, chaired by May loyalist Sir Graham Brady
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 981


    Wider knowledge - very funny. I’ll leave you to your ignorance

    Big_G is 100% right. The party is much wider than kipper central ConHome.

    Anyone who confuses ConHome with the Party is a joke.
    I don’t confuse them but their polls are restricted to party members. You have to send them your party membership card to be included.

    You apparently are the one who is confused between those who comment on the site and party members.

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 20,380

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Happy New Year everyone. Good Health and happiness to all.

    It’s difficult to put much trust in any poll these days given their poor recent track record. Personally, I think it will take a miracle for the Tories to win the next election, particularly if May ging.

    I n.
    TM is the most popular conservative leader among the voters and no other candidate at this time would maintain the conservative poll position. Indeed if her ratings are back to before the 2017 election, as suggested earlier, why on earth would she stand down. She is in an elected position and safe for 12 months

    As a matter of interest who is this shining star in the conservative party that is going to take the party to new election heights

    You don’t know Conservative Party members well if you think that. Even the ConHome poll of members shows that 66% want her to step down immediately. She is not going to find a more supportive group than those. It’s foolish to the point of absurdity to claim she is popular.

    Who I want as party leader is irrelevant. MPs will provide members with a shortlist of 2. I just hope there is Vote this time which was not the case when May became leader.
    Given May cannot now be challenged again until December 2019 under Tory Party rules what Tory MPs and members think is irrelevant until then, May is staying having won the confidence vote at the end of last year.

    May is also more popular with Tory voters as a whole
    She can certainly be challenged . She could lose an opposition proposed no confidence vote in her Gov or be faced with mass resignations from her Cabinet. All she is safe from is a challenge from her parliamentary party. I doubt even May would want to go the same way as Callaghan.

    The party will struggle to find enough supporters to canvass and campaign as it is. Be even worse with May as leader.
    You are becoming rather comical in your desire to see TM overthrown. Your reference to ConHome says it all about your wider knowledge of my party
    Wider knowledge - very funny. I’ll leave you to your ignorance
    You may find that past conservative Secretary States for Wales and Ministers for Wales would find your comments somewhat strange in view of my direct input into their various election campaigns
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 981
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Happy New Year everyone. Good Health and happiness to all.

    May will stay until next Decdmber at least, she will stick to her Deal through to Brexit Day given she cannot now be challenged for a year having won the VONC. No alternative Tory leader polls better than May and most poll worse
    I don’t think the polls have the reliability you claim for them particularly where May is concerned. I think she will go shortly after her Brexit deal fails to pass either because she loses a VONC yn.
    You don’t know Conservative Party members well if you think n May became leader.
    Given May cannot now be challenged again until December 2019 under Tory Party rules what Tory MPs and members think is irrelevant until then, May is staying having won the confidence vote at the end of last year.

    May is also more popular with Tory voters as a whole
    She can certainly be challenged . She could lose a no confidence vote or be faced with mass resignations from her Cabinet. All she is safe from is a challenge from her parliamentary party. I doubt even May would want to go the same way as Callaghan.

    The party will struggle to find enough supporters to canvass and campaign as it is. Be even worse with May as leader.
    No she cannot be challenged. Under Tory rules no no confidence vote can be held against May for another year. May has survived plenty of resignations from her Cabinet already and is stubborn enough to plough on regardless. She matches Corbyn in that respect who is still there despite virtually all the previous Shadow Cabinet resigning

    From.experience I know plenty of Tory volunteers out and campaigning we are not all No Deal Kipper diehards like you
    Facts never were your strong point. Accusing me of being a kipper is an factually incorrect and asinine as if I were to call you a LibDem. Such insults are puerile.

    Still if that’s your only substantive comment, go knock yourself out.
    It is a fact, you are a No Dealer and the polling shows the only party a clear majority of whose voters have always backed No Deal is UKIP. You are a Kipper in all but name
    Because the Tory Party has no No Deal supporters or backers I suppose. Grow up and give your brain a chance. Repeating a stupid comment doesn’t make it any less stupid.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 20,380


    Wider knowledge - very funny. I’ll leave you to your ignorance

    Big_G is 100% right. The party is much wider than kipper central ConHome.

    Anyone who confuses ConHome with the Party is a joke.
    I don’t confuse them but their polls are restricted to party members. You have to send them your party membership card to be included.

    You apparently are the one who is confused between those who comment on the site and party members.

    I didn't and I take part in their polls
  • eekeek Posts: 2,588


    Wider knowledge - very funny. I’ll leave you to your ignorance

    Big_G is 100% right. The party is much wider than kipper central ConHome.

    Anyone who confuses ConHome with the Party is a joke.
    I don’t confuse them but their polls are restricted to party members. You have to send them your party membership card to be included.

    You apparently are the one who is confused between those who comment on the site and party members.

    If we assume ConHome is an echo chamber that many Tory members don't visit - any poll is merely a reflection of those members that are interested in ConHome's viewpoint.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,114
    eek said:


    Wider knowledge - very funny. I’ll leave you to your ignorance

    Big_G is 100% right. The party is much wider than kipper central ConHome.

    Anyone who confuses ConHome with the Party is a joke.
    I don’t confuse them but their polls are restricted to party members. You have to send them your party membership card to be included.

    You apparently are the one who is confused between those who comment on the site and party members.

    If we assume ConHome is an echo chamber that many Tory members don't visit - any poll is merely a reflection of those members that are interested in ConHome's viewpoint.
    I am ostensibly a Conservative, not a member and I haven't looked at Con Home for years, so confusing Con Home with Conservative members or voters is a mistake
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 981

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Happy New Year everyone. Good Health and happiness to all.

    It’s difficult to put much trust in any poll these days given their poor recent track record. Personally, I think it will take a miracle for the Tories to win the next election, particularly if May ging.

    I n.
    TM is the most popular conservative leader among the voters and no other candidate at this time would maintain the conservative poll position. Indeed if her ratings are back to before the 2017 election, as suggested earlier, why on earth would she stand down. She is in an elected position and safe for 12 months

    As a matter of interest who is this shining star in the conservative party that is going to take the party to new election heights

    You don’t know Conservative Party members well if you think that. Even the ConHome poll of members shows that 66% want her to step down immediately. She is not going to find a more supportive group than those. It’s foolish to the point of absurdity to claim she is popular.

    Who I want as party leader is irrelevant. MPs will provide members with a shortlist of 2. I just hope there is Vote this time which was not the case when May became leader.
    Given May cannot now be challenged again until December 2019 under Tory Party rules what Tory MPs and members think is irrelevant until then, May is staying having won the confidence vote at the end of last year.

    May is also more popular with Tory voters as a whole
    The party will struggle to find enough supporters to canvass and campaign as it is. Be even worse with May as leader.
    You are becoming rather comical in your desire to see TM overthrown. Your reference to ConHome says it all about your wider knowledge of my party
    Wider knowledge - very funny. I’ll leave you to your ignorance
    You may find that past conservative Secretary States for Wales and Ministers for Wales would find your comments somewhat strange in view of my direct input into their various election campaigns
    That’s probably why the Tories lost seats in Wales last election. Having CCHQ impose candidates who had no local support and against local wishes and failing to produce a manifesto on devolved matter for Wales unlike Labour or the Scottish conservatives were not exactly great decisions. Still, I am sure your efforts were appreciated by someone who values patronage more than votes.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 2,109
    edited January 1
    philiph said:

    Are we seeing the ceiling for a JC led labour?
    If they can't break the 40% barrier now, when will they? We know that it is historically possible, as the Tory Blair did so and I expect Kinnock / Smith also?

    TMay polls higher than other tories. When was the last time a party was in power and a member who was not PM had the highest poll rating? Did Brown poll above PM Blair? Any Tory above PM Thatcher or even PM Major?

    Possibly D Milliband over PM Brown?

    If we are talking about polling then Labour have been over the 40% barrier previously under Corbyn. I think our best spell was just after GE17 but we've gone above it since I'm pretty sure just not to any consistent degree across polls since the aftermath of the election.

    Kinnock got 30.8% in 92, about 9% less than Corbyn. Blair went over it twice and under it once, I think the one over was very close to Corbyn's result. I think basically only Blair beat Corbyn's score (without going back decades) and only once with a bit to spare and once by a little.

    In terms of vote share Corbyn actually stands out as a Labour leader as a very good performer electorally.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 13,238
    It's rather alarming, if comments here are representative of the views of the two main parties. We are approaching a decision on probably the UK's greatest change of direction since the Corn Laws and the main point of dispute seems to be whether the party leaders have the confidence and support of their own members.
  • eekeek Posts: 2,588
    edited January 1

    eek said:


    Wider knowledge - very funny. I’ll leave you to your ignorance

    Big_G is 100% right. The party is much wider than kipper central ConHome.

    Anyone who confuses ConHome with the Party is a joke.
    I don’t confuse them but their polls are restricted to party members. You have to send them your party membership card to be included.

    You apparently are the one who is confused between those who comment on the site and party members.

    If we assume ConHome is an echo chamber that many Tory members don't visit - any poll is merely a reflection of those members that are interested in ConHome's viewpoint.
    I am ostensibly a Conservative, not a member and I haven't looked at Con Home for years, so confusing Con Home with Conservative members or voters is a mistake
    Which was my point. a ConHome poll (if it is restricted to confirmed party members only as seems to be the case) is merely a poll of the subset of Conservative Members who also visit the ConHome site - hence any result there may or may not reflect the whole Tory electorate and equally may not accurately reflect the average readership of the ConHome site.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 16,035

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Happy New Year everyone. Good Health and happiness to all.

    May will stay until next Decdmber at least, she will stick to her Deal through to Brexit Day given she cannot now be challenged for a year having won the VONC. No alternative Tory leader polls better than May and most poll worse
    I don’t think the polls have the reliability you claim for them particularly where May is concerned. I think she will go shortly after her Brexit deal fails to pass either because she loses a VONC yn.
    You don’t know Conservative Party members well if you think n May became leader.
    Given May cannot now be challenged again until December 2019 under Tory Party rules what Tory MPs and members think is irrelevant until then, May is staying having won the confidence vote at the end of last year.

    May is also more popular with Tory voters as a whole
    She can certainly be challenged . She could lose a no confidence vote or be faced with mass resignations from her Cabinet. All she is safe from is a challenge from her parliamentary party. I doubt even May would want to go the same way as Callaghan.

    The party will struggle to find enough supporters to canvass and campaign as it is. Be even worse with May as leader.
    No she cannot be challenged. Under Tory rules no no confidence vote can be held against May for another year. May has survived plenty of resignations from her Cabinet already and is stubborn enough to plough on regardless. She matches Corbyn in that respect who is still there despite virtually all the previous Shadow Cabinet resigning

    From.experience I know plenty of Tory volunteers out and campaigning we are not all No Deal Kipper diehards like you
    Facts never were your strong point. Accusing me of being a kipper is an factually incorrect and asinine as if I were to call you a LibDem. Such insults are puerile.

    Still if that’s your only substantive comment, go knock yourself out.
    It is a fact, you are a No Dealer and the polling shows the only party a clear majority of whose voters have always backed No Deal is UKIP. You are a Kipper in all but name
    Because the Tory Party has no No Deal supporters or backers I suppose. Grow up and give your brain a chance. Repeating a stupid comment doesn’t make it any less stupid.
    Kate Hoey supports foxhunting. Does that make Labour the pro-hunting party?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 16,035
    Happy New Year all btw.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,305
    edited January 1

    philiph said:

    Are we seeing the ceiling for a JC led labour?
    If they can't break the 40% barrier now, when will they? We know that it is historically possible, as the Tory Blair did so and I expect Kinnock / Smith also?

    TMay polls higher than other tories. When was the last time a party was in power and a member who was not PM had the highest poll rating? Did Brown poll above PM Blair? Any Tory above PM Thatcher or even PM Major?

    Possibly D Milliband over PM Brown?

    If we are talking about polling then Labour have been over the 40% barrier previously under Corbyn. I think our best spell was just after GE17 but we've gone above it since I'm pretty sure just not to any consistent degree across polls since the aftermath of the election.

    Kinnock got 30.8% in 92, about 9% less than Corbyn. Blair went over it twice and under it once, I think the one over was very close to Corbyn's result. I think basically only Blair beat Corbyn's score (without going back decades) and only once with a bit to spare and once by a little.

    In terms of vote share Corbyn actually stands out as a Labour leader as a very good performer electorally.
    Kinnock got 34% in 1992.

    Attlee got over 40% in 1945, 1950, 1951 and 1955, Gaitskill got over 40% in 1959 and Wilson got over 40% in 1964 and 1966 and 1970.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 37,914

    It's rather alarming, if comments here are representative of the views of the two main parties. We are approaching a decision on probably the UK's greatest change of direction since the Corn Laws and the main point of dispute seems to be whether the party leaders have the confidence and support of their own members.

    I'm sure comments here are not generally representative of anything, but on that point at least they are close. Corbyn at least has an easier path available to retain support and confidence, if he chooses to take it.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,114
    eek said:

    eek said:


    Wider knowledge - very funny. I’ll leave you to your ignorance

    Big_G is 100% right. The party is much wider than kipper central ConHome.

    Anyone who confuses ConHome with the Party is a joke.
    I don’t confuse them but their polls are restricted to party members. You have to send them your party membership card to be included.

    You apparently are the one who is confused between those who comment on the site and party members.

    If we assume ConHome is an echo chamber that many Tory members don't visit - any poll is merely a reflection of those members that are interested in ConHome's viewpoint.
    I am ostensibly a Conservative, not a member and I haven't looked at Con Home for years, so confusing Con Home with Conservative members or voters is a mistake
    Which was my point. a ConHome poll (if it is restricted to confirmed party members only as seems to be the case) is merely a poll of the subset of Conservative Members who also visit the ConHome site - hence any result there may or may not reflect the whole Tory electorate and equally may not accurately reflect the average readership of the ConHome site.
    one would guess they were kippers or ERG loons
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,305

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Happy New Year everyone. Good Health and happiness to all.

    May will stay until next Decdmber at least, she will stick to her Deal through to Brexit Day given she cannot now be challenged for a year having won the VONC. No alternative Tory leader polls better than May and most poll worse
    I don’t think the polls have the reliability you claim for them particularly where May is concerned. I think she will go shortly after her Brexit deal fails to pass either because she loses a VONC yn.
    You don’t know Conservative Party members well if you think n May became leader.
    Given May cannot now be challenged again until December 2019 under Tory Party rules what Tory MPs and members think is irrelevant until then, May is staying having won the confidence vote at the end of last year.

    May is also more popular with Tory voters as a whole
    She can certainly be challenged . She could lose a no confidence vote or be faced with mass resignations from her Cabinet. All she is safe from is a challenge from her parliamentary party. I doubt even May would want to go the same way as Callaghan.

    The party will struggle to find enough supporters to canvass and campaign as it is. Be even worse with May as leader.
    No she cannot be challenged. Under Tory rules no no confidence vote can be held against May for another year. May has survived plenty of resignations from her Cabinet already and is stubborn enough to plough on regardless. She matches Corbyn in that respect who is still there despite virtually all the previous Shadow Cabinet resigning

    From.experience I know plenty of Tory volunteers out and campaigning we are not all No Deal Kipper diehards like you
    Facts never were your strong point. Accusing me of being a kipper is an factually incorrect and asinine as if I were to call you a LibDem. Such insults are puerile.

    Still if that’s your only substantive comment, go knock yourself out.
    It is a fact, you are a No Dealer and the polling shows the only party a clear majority of whose voters have always backed No Deal is UKIP. You are a Kipper in all but name
    Because the Tory Party has no No Deal supporters or backers I suppose. Grow up and give your brain a chance. Repeating a stupid comment doesn’t make it any less stupid.
    Even Labour has some No Deal supporters, not a majority of its voters though unlike UKIP
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 20,380

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Happy New Year everyone. Good Health and happiness to all.

    It’s

    I n.
    TM is the most popular conservative leader among the voters and no other candidate at this time would maintain the conservative poll position. Indeed if her ratings are back to before the 2017 election, as suggested earlier, why on earth would she stand down. She is in an elected position and safe for 12 months

    As a matter of interest who is this shining star in the conservative party that is going to take the party to new election heights

    You don’t know Conservative Party members well if you think
    Given May cannot now be challenged again until December 2019 under Tory Party rules what Tory MPs and members think is irrelevant until then, May is staying having won the confidence vote at the end of last year.

    May is also more popular with Tory voters as a whole
    The party will struggle to find enough supporters to canvass and campaign as it is. Be even worse with May as leader.
    You are becoming rather comical in your desire to see TM overthrown. Your reference to ConHome says it all about your wider knowledge of my party
    Wider knowledge - very funny. I’ll leave you to your ignorance
    You may find that past conservative Secretary States for Wales and Ministers for Wales would find your comments somewhat strange in view of my direct input into their various election campaigns
    That’s probably why the Tories lost seats in Wales last election. Having CCHQ impose candidates who had no local support and against local wishes and failing to produce a manifesto on devolved matter for Wales unlike Labour or the Scottish conservatives were not exactly great decisions. Still, I am sure your efforts were appreciated by someone who values patronage more than votes.
    I was not active in the last election but I was in the 70, 80, 90 and 2010. I am content that I have nothing to prove on my conservative credentials lasting nearly 60 years.

    However, my conservative credentials are pro business, pro the union and pro immigration where it satisfies the economic needs of the country. I reject the ultras brexiteers just as much as I reject the hard left of Corbyn
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 20,380
    eek said:

    eek said:


    Wider knowledge - very funny. I’ll leave you to your ignorance

    Big_G is 100% right. The party is much wider than kipper central ConHome.

    Anyone who confuses ConHome with the Party is a joke.
    I don’t confuse them but their polls are restricted to party members. You have to send them your party membership card to be included.

    You apparently are the one who is confused between those who comment on the site and party members.

    If we assume ConHome is an echo chamber that many Tory members don't visit - any poll is merely a reflection of those members that are interested in ConHome's viewpoint.
    I am ostensibly a Conservative, not a member and I haven't looked at Con Home for years, so confusing Con Home with Conservative members or voters is a mistake
    Which was my point. a ConHome poll (if it is restricted to confirmed party members only as seems to be the case) is merely a poll of the subset of Conservative Members who also visit the ConHome site - hence any result there may or may not reflect the whole Tory electorate and equally may not accurately reflect the average readership of the ConHome site.
    I have completed their polls for years and you self certify you are a member and provide your e mail address. Anyone could fill in their poll by simply ticking the box asking if they are a member
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 5,925

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Given historical polling performance the true picture with a GE tommorow could be anything from Lab +4/-4

    None of which would be enough for a Labour overall majority, though the Tories could win a tiny overall majority if they lead Labour by 4%
    Labour's margin for a Lib-Lab victory is probably very narrow. Probably SNP confidence and supply - contingent on a 2nd referendum though...
    Of course, that prospect wasn't thought anywhere near an outcome in 2017 (when it was much more about trimming May's massive projected majority). The 2015 election though WAS about the prospect of the SNP holding sway over Labour. And that did not play out well for Labour.


    In the last 10 days of the 2017 campaign several polls pointed to the serious possibility of a Hung Parliament. A few of us did point that out at the time.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 2,109
    edited January 1
    HYUFD said:

    philiph said:

    Are we seeing the ceiling for a JC led labour?
    If they can't break the 40% barrier now, when will they? We know that it is historically possible, as the Tory Blair did so and I expect Kinnock / Smith also?

    TMay polls higher than other tories. When was the last time a party was in power and a member who was not PM had the highest poll rating? Did Brown poll above PM Blair? Any Tory above PM Thatcher or even PM Major?

    Possibly D Milliband over PM Brown?

    If we are talking about polling then Labour have been over the 40% barrier previously under Corbyn. I think our best spell was just after GE17 but we've gone above it since I'm pretty sure just not to any consistent degree across polls since the aftermath of the election.

    Kinnock got 30.8% in 92, about 9% less than Corbyn. Blair went over it twice and under it once, I think the one over was very close to Corbyn's result. I think basically only Blair beat Corbyn's score (without going back decades) and only once with a bit to spare and once by a little.

    In terms of vote share Corbyn actually stands out as a Labour leader as a very good performer electorally.
    Kinnock got 34% in 1992.

    Attlee got over 40% in 1945, 1950, 1951 and 1955, Gaitskill got over 40% in 1959 and Wilson got over 40% in 1964 and 1966 and 1970.

    Ìn my defence I looked at wikipedia and wrote that out... it says 30.8% on wikipedia for some reason.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Edit: Spotted my mistake, I just looked quickly and the first percentage it shows are last election scores, 30.8% is the previous election.

    Anyway my mistake aside basically aside from Blair in 2/3 victories and one of those is very close to Corbyn's result no Labour leader has a better vote share than Corbyn without going back to 1970 (if your list is comprehensive)
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 13,238
    kle4 said:

    It's rather alarming, if comments here are representative of the views of the two main parties. We are approaching a decision on probably the UK's greatest change of direction since the Corn Laws and the main point of dispute seems to be whether the party leaders have the confidence and support of their own members.

    I'm sure comments here are not generally representative of anything, but on that point at least they are close. Corbyn at least has an easier path available to retain support and confidence, if he chooses to take it.
    My point is that they appear to be indulging in displacement activity rather than facing up to the situation.

    A bit like being on here and not doing my income tax return!
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 5,925
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    FPT

    Nigelb said:
    Wrecking Carter's re-election bid was, while it might have seemed a good idea at the time, a grave mistake by the Iranians.
    I’ve always thought Carter one of the more underrated US Presidents, and Reagan not quite so good as he is thought to be. An alternate history where Carter was re-elected would be interesting.

    Carter was elected as after Nixon Americans wanted an honest, purer than pure candidate.

    However he turned out to be weak and oversaw the humiliation in Iran and a sluggish economy while it took Reagan to restore the American optimism and strength in the world it had not had since JFK was assassinated
    I don't think Carter was particularly 'weak'; however, he wasn't particularly good at delegating, or at dealing with Congress. He also came up against an unscrupulous enemy in the Iranians who felt, with good reason, that the Americans, and especially the oil companies, put their own interests first and those of Iran and it's people at best at 6th to 7th.
    I lived in Georgia in 1976, when Carter was elected, albeit in a prosperous Atlanta suburb that voted Republican.

    It wasn't just Watergate, but also post Vietnam that discredited the Washington elite. Carter was was seen almost as a "Mr Smith goes to Washington" populist figure. After Vietnam, US military intervention in Vietnam, or in other places such as Angola, was anathema. I cannot see a counterfactual with a different outcome in Iran being possible.

    The hostage crisis was humiliating, but also the oil crisis did him in. Carter was a good man though, and still is. His work since leaving office does him credit.
    The only other former president who comes at all close was Herbert Hoover.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 5,925

    HYUFD said:

    philiph said:

    Are we seeing the ceiling for a JC led labour?
    If they can't break the 40% barrier now, when will they? We know that it is historically possible, as the Tory Blair did so and I expect Kinnock / Smith also?

    TMay polls higher than other tories. When was the last time a party was in power and a member who was not PM had the highest poll rating? Did Brown poll above PM Blair? Any Tory above PM Thatcher or even PM Major?

    Possibly D Milliband over PM Brown?

    If we are talking about polling then Labour have been over the 40% barrier previously under Corbyn. I think our best spell was just after GE17 but we've gone above it since I'm pretty sure just not to any consistent degree across polls since the aftermath of the election.

    Kinnock got 30.8% in 92, about 9% less than Corbyn. Blair went over it twice and under it once, I think the one over was very close to Corbyn's result. I think basically only Blair beat Corbyn's score (without going back decades) and only once with a bit to spare and once by a little.

    In terms of vote share Corbyn actually stands out as a Labour leader as a very good performer electorally.
    Kinnock got 34% in 1992.

    Attlee got over 40% in 1945, 1950, 1951 and 1955, Gaitskill got over 40% in 1959 and Wilson got over 40% in 1964 and 1966 and 1970.

    Ìn my defence I looked at wikipedia and wrote that out... it says 30.8% on wikipedia for some reason.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Edit: Spotted my mistake, I just looked quickly and the first percentage it shows are last election scores, 30.8% is the previous election.

    Anyway my mistake aside basically aside from Blair in 2/3 victories and one of those is very close to Corbyn's result no Labour leader has a better vote share than Corbyn without going back to 1970 (if your list is comprehensive)
    If you look carefully that page shows 30.8% in reference to 'the last election' - ie the 1987 election. The relevant figure for 1992 was 34.4%. Note also that these are UK figures - rather than the GB figures normally provided by the pollsters. On a GB basis Kinnock managed 35.2% in 1992.
This discussion has been closed.