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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn’s flat rejection of a second referendum sees the bettin

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited January 3 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn’s flat rejection of a second referendum sees the betting chances of one happening drop to 32%

The big Brexit political betting movement has been a sharp fall in the betting chances of a second referendum taking place during 2019. The Betfair exchange odds plunged from nearly 40% to just 26% at about 10pm last night. Since then there’s been something of a recovery but at 32.5% as I write is still considerably lower than what it was.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 14,827
    edited January 3
    The other shoe has dropped.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 11,207
    I don't get it, wasn't this always his position?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 14,827

    I don't get it, wasn't this always his position?

    Well..

    "Second EU referendum 'an option for the future' says Jeremy Corbyn as he admits not reading Brexit deal in full"

    https://tinyurl.com/y7sfva5y

    Of course tomorrow never comes.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 28,798
    The betting response is wrong. A referendum only becomes less likely if Corbyn indicates a softening of his position on voting for the deal.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 4,907
    It might sound unlikely but why doesn't someone take a punt on challenging Corbyn?

    Most will say he can't be beaten but who knows - Owen Smith got 40% in 2016 and he was a very weak candidate.

    Many Lab members care a lot about Brexit. So if a much stronger candidate challenged Corbyn promising a 2nd referendum then who knows - they might well cause an upset.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 568

    I don't get it, wasn't this always his position?

    Well..

    "Second EU referendum 'an option for the future' says Jeremy Corbyn as he admits not reading Brexit deal in full"

    https://tinyurl.com/y7sfva5y

    Of course tomorrow never comes.
    The man achieves the remarkable feat of being both utterly disingenuous and an imbecile at the same time.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 568
    MikeL said:

    It might sound unlikely but why doesn't someone take a punt on challenging Corbyn?

    Most will say he can't be beaten but who knows - Owen Smith got 40% in 2016 and he was a very weak candidate.

    Many Lab members care a lot about Brexit. So if a much stronger candidate challenged Corbyn promising a 2nd referendum then who knows - they might well cause an upset.

    The problem is, as Smith found out, and he wasn't that terrible a candidate but had to face a ruthless Momentum-led hit job before he even got going, challenging Corbyn has a rallying effect whereby even those who'll privately admit the man's a bit of a dud, jump in enthusiastically behind him in defence of the wider project. A challenge purely based on a second referendum would arguably have the effect of tainting it because a majority of Labour members will then see it through the lens of being used as a method moderates have used to oust Corbyn.

    It is of course absurd, and hugely damaging to Labour and the country. But that's where we are. Labour are now a political Ponzi scheme run for the service of a small group of men who control it, with the acquiescence of those being defrauded.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 37,527
    lol, he hasn't read the Brexit deal?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,644
    So he's saying Corbyn is NOT defying calls for a second referendum?

    I'm confused by the labour position on all this. Not least the cries of betrayal previously about Corbyn following the actual party policy rather than what people wished was party policy. So now I don't know whether he is changing position or not or if he's just pulling a May, putting off a decision or sticking to one position long past the point it is no longer viable.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 11,207
    kle4 said:

    So he's saying Corbyn is NOT defying calls for a second referendum?

    Could be saying that low-calorie sweeteners definitely aid weight loss.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 33,949
    kle4 said:

    So he's saying Corbyn is NOT defying calls for a second referendum?

    I'm confused by the labour position on all this. Not least the cries of betrayal previously about Corbyn following the actual party policy rather than what people wished was party policy. So now I don't know whether he is changing position or not or if he's just pulling a May, putting off a decision or sticking to one position long past the point it is no longer viable.
    His argument is set out in the subsequent tweets and relies on the poll which said Labour member “agreed with the party policy on Brexit” without doing anything as tedious as examining specific policies. It’s a very partial reading of the available data, to say the least.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,644
    So he's saying Corbyn is NOT defying calls for a second referendum?

    I'm confused by the labour position on all this. Not least the cries of betrayal previously about Corbyn following the actual party policy rather than what people wished was party policy. So now I don't know whether he is changing position or not or if he's just pulling a May, putting off a decision or sticking to one position long past the point it is no longer viable.

    I admit, I thought he'd have switched position before now and have clearly been wrong, but when so many in his party want to remain (Sorry, 'have a referendum') he cannot be seen to facilitate brexit forever. But it does increasingly look like he is determined to drag things out until at least the MV, waiting for the gov to react to that defeat before he contemplates changing position.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 28,798
    kle4 said:

    So he's saying Corbyn is NOT defying calls for a second referendum?

    I'm confused by the labour position on all this. Not least the cries of betrayal previously about Corbyn following the actual party policy rather than what people wished was party policy. So now I don't know whether he is changing position or not or if he's just pulling a May, putting off a decision or sticking to one position long past the point it is no longer viable.
    Apparently this is what he thinks Corbyn’s Brexit policy is.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,644
    A big question for 2019 - will the reformist pm of Ethiopia continue to make progress or will things at all?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-46735703
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 33,949

    kle4 said:

    So he's saying Corbyn is NOT defying calls for a second referendum?

    I'm confused by the labour position on all this. Not least the cries of betrayal previously about Corbyn following the actual party policy rather than what people wished was party policy. So now I don't know whether he is changing position or not or if he's just pulling a May, putting off a decision or sticking to one position long past the point it is no longer viable.
    Apparently this is what he thinks Corbyn’s Brexit policy is.
    When I first saw this tweet I thought it was a spoof!

    But they’re deadly serious. Deadly.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 568
    kle4 said:

    So he's saying Corbyn is NOT defying calls for a second referendum?

    I'm confused by the labour position on all this. Not least the cries of betrayal previously about Corbyn following the actual party policy rather than what people wished was party policy. So now I don't know whether he is changing position or not or if he's just pulling a May, putting off a decision or sticking to one position long past the point it is no longer viable.
    I think almost certainly the latter. I think the important thing to remember about Corbyn is that he's one of the few politicians who is totally uninterested in Brexit. Even his ideological allies are either Lexiteers or fear Brexit would fatally hobble a Corbyn government. They care about it in some way. Corbyn's political worldview is subtly different though in that he essentially believes that whatever problems exist can be solved merely by a socialist government with the will to solve them. As such, it's a political irritant rather than the great issue of the day. He's just going to moan until it happens and then claim his own brand of declarative socialism is the only antidote.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 37,527

    kle4 said:

    So he's saying Corbyn is NOT defying calls for a second referendum?

    I'm confused by the labour position on all this. Not least the cries of betrayal previously about Corbyn following the actual party policy rather than what people wished was party policy. So now I don't know whether he is changing position or not or if he's just pulling a May, putting off a decision or sticking to one position long past the point it is no longer viable.
    Apparently this is what he thinks Corbyn’s Brexit policy is.
    I was reading through a few replies and saw this chestnut... LOL

  • RogerRoger Posts: 11,346
    I'm surprised anyone's surprised. Len McClusky had already announced there would be no second referendum. Always worth listening to the organ grinder rather than waiting for the monkey to tweet.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,177
    Jeremy Corbyn, Hard Brexit's Bessy Mate.....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,177
    What is the earliest date by which a General Election couldn't be held before March 29th? Given May shows no signs whatsoever of calling such an election or withdrawing Article 50, and Corbyn won't facilitate a second referendum, then that is when the penny is going to drop for Remainers - it's Hard Brexit or May's Shit Deal.

    Pop Quiz, Remainers: What do you do?
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited January 3

    What is the earliest date by which a General Election couldn't be held before March 29th? Given May shows no signs whatsoever of calling such an election or withdrawing Article 50, and Corbyn won't facilitate a second referendum, then that is when the penny is going to drop for Remainers - it's Hard Brexit or May's Shit Deal.

    Pop Quiz, Remainers: What do you do?

    Hard Brexit. It is the only way left to destroy both mad-dog marxism and the post-imperial nostalgia that infects the minds of hard-right voters.

    May's Deal is rubbish but with her in charge, I doubt we will be asked. She will just run the clock down and keep ramming her deal down MPs throats untl they panic and back it
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 28,798

    What is the earliest date by which a General Election couldn't be held before March 29th? Given May shows no signs whatsoever of calling such an election or withdrawing Article 50, and Corbyn won't facilitate a second referendum, then that is when the penny is going to drop for Remainers - it's Hard Brexit or May's Shit Deal.

    Pop Quiz, Remainers: What do you do?

    Revocation requires the least time of any of the options, so Remainers have the upper hand in any game of brinkmanship.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    What is the earliest date by which a General Election couldn't be held before March 29th? Given May shows no signs whatsoever of calling such an election or withdrawing Article 50, and Corbyn won't facilitate a second referendum, then that is when the penny is going to drop for Remainers - it's Hard Brexit or May's Shit Deal.

    Pop Quiz, Remainers: What do you do?

    Revocation requires the least time of any of the options, so Remainers have the upper hand in any game of brinkmanship.
    I really hope you are right, but i am preparing for WTO.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,177

    What is the earliest date by which a General Election couldn't be held before March 29th? Given May shows no signs whatsoever of calling such an election or withdrawing Article 50, and Corbyn won't facilitate a second referendum, then that is when the penny is going to drop for Remainers - it's Hard Brexit or May's Shit Deal.

    Pop Quiz, Remainers: What do you do?

    Revocation requires the least time of any of the options, so Remainers have the upper hand in any game of brinkmanship.
    May has shown no interest in revocation. So how do you a) remove the bomb-proof PM and then b) get someone in place who will revoke by 29th March?

    Dream on.....
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 11,402

    What is the earliest date by which a General Election couldn't be held before March 29th? Given May shows no signs whatsoever of calling such an election or withdrawing Article 50, and Corbyn won't facilitate a second referendum, then that is when the penny is going to drop for Remainers - it's Hard Brexit or May's Shit Deal.

    Pop Quiz, Remainers: What do you do?

    Revocation requires the least time of any of the options, so Remainers have the upper hand in any game of brinkmanship.
    Penny doesn’t seem to have dropped with our resident NeverBrexiter, @MarqueeMark
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 9,074

    What is the earliest date by which a General Election couldn't be held before March 29th? Given May shows no signs whatsoever of calling such an election or withdrawing Article 50, and Corbyn won't facilitate a second referendum, then that is when the penny is going to drop for Remainers - it's Hard Brexit or May's Shit Deal.

    Pop Quiz, Remainers: What do you do?

    Revocation requires the least time of any of the options, so Remainers have the upper hand in any game of brinkmanship.
    I really hope you are right, but i am preparing for WTO.
    I reckon that Labour will hold their line, and that Mays Deal will be voted down by her own party. There is no sign that Labour MPs are weakening on this, and SNP and LD look solid too.

    So popcorn time, while stocks last, and No Deal a definite possibility, depending on May's reaction.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,177
    Mortimer said:

    What is the earliest date by which a General Election couldn't be held before March 29th? Given May shows no signs whatsoever of calling such an election or withdrawing Article 50, and Corbyn won't facilitate a second referendum, then that is when the penny is going to drop for Remainers - it's Hard Brexit or May's Shit Deal.

    Pop Quiz, Remainers: What do you do?

    Revocation requires the least time of any of the options, so Remainers have the upper hand in any game of brinkmanship.
    Penny doesn’t seem to have dropped with our resident NeverBrexiter, @MarqueeMark
    Yep. Hard Brexit means Brexit........
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 12,183
    kle4 said:

    So he's saying Corbyn is NOT defying calls for a second referendum?

    I'm confused by the labour position on all this...
    I rather think that is the intention.
    Whether that is a tenable policy until March is another matter.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 12,457
    edited January 3

    I don't get it, wasn't this always his position?

    Yes, and it's also the party position agreed at the conference, for all that the Guardian would like it to be different. The sequencing is clear and it hasn't changed:

    1. Offer May a deal on Labour terms (permanent customs union is the simple one, but if she engaged there would be haggling over other things). The EU has said repeatedly that it's specifically the "no permanent customs union" red line that prevents reopening the deal. However, she's not interested and the clock is ticking. So...

    2. Vote down the May deal. It's the only one on the table, and needs to be considered. It offers a low-grade second-class associate membership. There are probably enough votes to reject it clearly.

    3. Block a No Deal by putting in killer amendments to every bit of legislation in sight which will paralyse government if we simply leave without a deal. These amendments have majority support in Parliament.

    4. Seek a General Election through a VONC, to offer people a choice of delayed A50 and new negotiations without May's red lines. This is, frankly, likely to fail to get a majority.

    5. Seek a second referendum, as other alternatives have been exhausted.

    The Guardian and People's Vote campaigners (who bear an uncanny resemblance to a subset of the anti-Corbyn people) want to lift step 5 to step 1. But that means "join the Remain conspiracy" - it fails to show that we've made reasonable efforts to respect the referendum. Reach step 5 and there's a defensible case that we've offered alternative implementations of Leave and merely rejected the one that nearly everyone agrees is unacceptable.

    One can disagree, but it's just silly to argue that Corbyn is defying the party by this. It's what we've agreed to do, and he's sticking to it.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited January 3
    Foxy said:

    What is the earliest date by which a General Election couldn't be held before March 29th? Given May shows no signs whatsoever of calling such an election or withdrawing Article 50, and Corbyn won't facilitate a second referendum, then that is when the penny is going to drop for Remainers - it's Hard Brexit or May's Shit Deal.

    Pop Quiz, Remainers: What do you do?

    Revocation requires the least time of any of the options, so Remainers have the upper hand in any game of brinkmanship.
    I really hope you are right, but i am preparing for WTO.
    I reckon that Labour will hold their line, and that Mays Deal will be voted down by her own party. There is no sign that Labour MPs are weakening on this, and SNP and LD look solid too.

    So popcorn time, while stocks last, and No Deal a definite possibility, depending on May's reaction.
    I lack your faith in our spineless representatives. They will just keep voting until they get the right answer
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 8,685
    edited January 3
    Impressive. Sooner rather than later IMO China will send a manned mission to the moon.



    Small irony. China firewalls Twitter.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,595

    I don't get it, wasn't this always his position?

    Yes, and it's also the party position agreed at the conference, for all that the Guardian would like it to be different. The sequencing is clear and it hasn't changed:

    1. Offer May a deal on Labour terms (permanent customs union is the simple one, but if she engaged there would be haggling over other things). The EU has said repeatedly that it's specifically the "no permanent customs union" red line that prevents reopening the deal. However, she's not interested and the clock is ticking. So...

    2. Vote down the May deal. It's the only one on the table, and needs to be considered. It offers a low-grade second-class associate membership. There are probably enough votes to reject it clearly.

    3. Block a No Deal by putting in killer amendments to every bit of legislation in sight which will paralyse government if we simply leave without a deal. These amendments have majority support in Parliament.

    4. Seek a General Election through a VONC, to offer people a choice of delayed A50 and new negotiations without May's red lines. This is, frankly, likely to fail to get a majority.

    5. Seek a second referendum, as other alternatives have been exhausted.

    The Guardian and People's Vote campaigners (who bear an uncanny resemblance to a subset of the anti-Corbyn people) want to lift step 5 to step 1. But that means "join the Remain conspiracy" - it fails to show that we've made reasonable efforts to respect the referendum. Reach step 5 and there's a defensible case that we've offered alternative implementations of Leave and merely rejected the one that nearly everyone agrees is unacceptable.

    One can disagree, but it's just silly to argue that Corbyn is defying the party by this. It's what we've agreed to do, and he's sticking to it.
    Who agreed to it, was it put to a vote within the PLP?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 28,798
    edited January 3

    The EU has said repeatedly that it's specifically the "no permanent customs union" red line that prevents reopening the deal.

    This is not true. The withdrawal agreement would not change even if we were seeking a permanent customs union as part of the future relationship.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 18,631
    FF43 said:

    Impressive. Sooner rather than later IMO China will send a manned mission to the moon.

    The Soviets never managed it. Whisper was they were afraid the men might decide to stay on the moon once they got there.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 18,631

    3. Block a No Deal by putting in killer amendments to every bit of legislation in sight which will paralyse government if we simply leave without a deal. These amendments have majority support in Parliament.

    That wouldn't block a no-deal Brexit, just make the chaos far worse if one happened. The only way to guarantee we leave with a deal is to vote for the one on offer.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 15,007
    There are, according to the Guardian, severe staff shortages developing in some, indeed many, parts of industry and commerce. Presumably these shortages will lead to the wage increases, which in some at least sectors are well overdue.
    Said shortages are alleged to be due to EU workers 'going home' or not coming.

    Hmm.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    There are, according to the Guardian, severe staff shortages developing in some, indeed many, parts of industry and commerce. Presumably these shortages will lead to the wage increases, which in some at least sectors are well overdue.
    Said shortages are alleged to be due to EU workers 'going home' or not coming.

    Hmm.

    You cannot increase production by paying fewer people more. If you are short staffed then your output will fall off. People here (and Westminster) seem to forget that Brexit affects more than just politics
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    edited January 3

    There are, according to the Guardian, severe staff shortages developing in some, indeed many, parts of industry and commerce. Presumably these shortages will lead to the wage increases, which in some at least sectors are well overdue.
    Said shortages are alleged to be due to EU workers 'going home' or not coming.

    Hmm.

    Uncontrolled immigration was always a subsidy for cheap labour. If wages start to rise that’s a good thing due to the fact that this is a tax and spend Gov who’ve negligently ignored the harmful effects on voters cost of living.

    Higher wages should give a much needed impetus to improve productivity. If Grayling had half a brain that’s what he would have criticised the rail unions for yesterday - resisting technology and productivity improvements, rather than criticising pay rises for their members which seems perfectly. normal given rising costs of living.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 18,648
    MJW said:

    kle4 said:

    So he's saying Corbyn is NOT defying calls for a second referendum?

    I'm confused by the labour position on all this. Not least the cries of betrayal previously about Corbyn following the actual party policy rather than what people wished was party policy. So now I don't know whether he is changing position or not or if he's just pulling a May, putting off a decision or sticking to one position long past the point it is no longer viable.
    I think almost certainly the latter. I think the important thing to remember about Corbyn is that he's one of the few politicians who is totally uninterested in Brexit. Even his ideological allies are either Lexiteers or fear Brexit would fatally hobble a Corbyn government. They care about it in some way. Corbyn's political worldview is subtly different though in that he essentially believes that whatever problems exist can be solved merely by a socialist government with the will to solve them. As such, it's a political irritant rather than the great issue of the day. He's just going to moan until it happens and then claim his own brand of declarative socialism is the only antidote.
    Nail and head. This is far closer to the truth than the suggestions that Corbyn is some sort of secret strong leaver, despite having said or written next to nothing on the subject during a very long political career.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    Corbyn can act with impunity because Labour supporters are going nowhere no matter what he does on Brexit. There won’t be any pressure on him to change until his poll ratings drop and maybe not even then if he still has McCluskey’s support.

    If the Tories had any brains they would roll out a domestic policy agenda to try and attract Labour support, That would too much to expect for May’s merry band of muppets.

    The course on Brexit has been set by the EU. The choices are no deal or May’s deal. May’s deal has nothing going for it. Just a shame she and Hammond have been so negligent in failing to prepare for no deal. May should have gone for a trade deal right from the start and made everything else conditional upon it. Too late now.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 9,074

    Foxy said:

    What is the earliest date by which a General Election couldn't be held before March 29th? Given May shows no signs whatsoever of calling such an election or withdrawing Article 50, and Corbyn won't facilitate a second referendum, then that is when the penny is going to drop for Remainers - it's Hard Brexit or May's Shit Deal.

    Pop Quiz, Remainers: What do you do?

    Revocation requires the least time of any of the options, so Remainers have the upper hand in any game of brinkmanship.
    I really hope you are right, but i am preparing for WTO.
    I reckon that Labour will hold their line, and that Mays Deal will be voted down by her own party. There is no sign that Labour MPs are weakening on this, and SNP and LD look solid too.

    So popcorn time, while stocks last, and No Deal a definite possibility, depending on May's reaction.
    I lack your faith in our spineless representatives. They will just keep voting until they get the right answer
    It does seem a little ironic that MPs are likely to be allowed a second vote in order to prevent the people getting a second vote.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    What is the earliest date by which a General Election couldn't be held before March 29th? Given May shows no signs whatsoever of calling such an election or withdrawing Article 50, and Corbyn won't facilitate a second referendum, then that is when the penny is going to drop for Remainers - it's Hard Brexit or May's Shit Deal.

    Pop Quiz, Remainers: What do you do?

    Revocation requires the least time of any of the options, so Remainers have the upper hand in any game of brinkmanship.
    I really hope you are right, but i am preparing for WTO.
    I reckon that Labour will hold their line, and that Mays Deal will be voted down by her own party. There is no sign that Labour MPs are weakening on this, and SNP and LD look solid too.

    So popcorn time, while stocks last, and No Deal a definite possibility, depending on May's reaction.
    I lack your faith in our spineless representatives. They will just keep voting until they get the right answer
    It does seem a little ironic that MPs are likely to be allowed a second vote in order to prevent the people getting a second vote.
    Yes. The irony would be delicious if the outcome was less critical :)
  • JonWCJonWC Posts: 154
    IanB2 said:

    MJW said:

    kle4 said:

    So he's saying Corbyn is NOT defying calls for a second referendum?

    I'm confused by the labour position on all this. Not least the cries of betrayal previously about Corbyn following the actual party policy rather than what people wished was party policy. So now I don't know whether he is changing position or not or if he's just pulling a May, putting off a decision or sticking to one position long past the point it is no longer viable.
    I think almost certainly the latter. I think the important thing to remember about Corbyn is that he's one of the few politicians who is totally uninterested in Brexit. Even his ideological allies are either Lexiteers or fear Brexit would fatally hobble a Corbyn government. They care about it in some way. Corbyn's political worldview is subtly different though in that he essentially believes that whatever problems exist can be solved merely by a socialist government with the will to solve them. As such, it's a political irritant rather than the great issue of the day. He's just going to moan until it happens and then claim his own brand of declarative socialism is the only antidote.
    Nail and head. This is far closer to the truth than the suggestions that Corbyn is some sort of secret strong leaver, despite having said or written next to nothing on the subject during a very long political career.
    Corbyn has been speaking and voting against the EU since the early seventies?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 49,750
    Good morning, everyone.

    The wider public recognise reality at last, it seems.

    As of yesterday, the odds on there being no second referendum had shortened from 1.75 before the (then uncancelled) 11 December vote to just 1.57.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 56,070
    Unless Labour voters really start to shift to the LDs Corbyn will continue to rule out EUref2 and get away with it
  • timmotimmo Posts: 968
    HYUFD said:

    Unless Labour voters really start to shift to the LDs Corbyn will continue to rule out EUref2 and get away with it

    And that won't happen with Uncle Vince in charge..
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 56,070

    Corbyn can act with impunity because Labour supporters are going nowhere no matter what he does on Brexit. There won’t be any pressure on him to change until his poll ratings drop and maybe not even then if he still has McCluskey’s support.

    If the Tories had any brains they would roll out a domestic policy agenda to try and attract Labour support, That would too much to expect for May’s merry band of muppets.

    The course on Brexit has been set by the EU. The choices are no deal or May’s deal. May’s deal has nothing going for it. Just a shame she and Hammond have been so negligent in failing to prepare for no deal. May should have gone for a trade deal right from the start and made everything else conditional upon it. Too late now.

    No Deal is by far the most damaging Brexit outcome both for the economy and the Union, there is little you can do to prepare for it other than try and minimise the damage as the government is now trying to prepare for.

    On house building, tuition fees, the NHS, business rates cuts, an Amazon tax etc there has been a proactive government domestic agenda since the general election
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 22,042
    edited January 3
    ydoethur said:

    3. Block a No Deal by putting in killer amendments to every bit of legislation in sight which will paralyse government if we simply leave without a deal. These amendments have majority support in Parliament.

    That wouldn't block a no-deal Brexit, just make the chaos far worse if one happened. The only way to guarantee we leave with a deal is to vote for the one on offer.
    no deal is better than a bad deal, Theresa said so!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 56,070

    I don't get it, wasn't this always his position?

    Yes, and it's also the party position agreed at the conference, for all that the Guardian would like it to be different. The sequencing is clear and it hasn't changed:

    1. Offer May a deal on Labour terms (permanent customs union is the simple one, but if she engaged there would be haggling over other things). The EU has said repeatedly that it's specifically the "no permanent customs union" red line that prevents reopening the deal. However, she's not interested and the clock is ticking. So...

    2. Vote down the May deal. It's the only one on the table, and needs to be considered. It offers a low-grade second-class associate membership. There are probably enough votes to reject it clearly.

    3. Block a No Deal by putting in killer amendments to every bit of legislation in sight which will paralyse government if we simply leave without a deal. These amendments have majority support in Parliament.

    4. Seek a General Election through a VONC, to offer people a choice of delayed A50 and new negotiations without May's red lines. This is, frankly, likely to fail to get a majority.

    5. Seek a second referendum, as other alternatives have been exhausted.

    The Guardian and People's Vote campaigners (who bear an uncanny resemblance to a subset of the anti-Corbyn people) want to lift step 5 to step 1. But that means "join the Remain conspiracy" - it fails to show that we've made reasonable efforts to respect the referendum. Reach step 5 and there's a defensible case that we've offered alternative implementations of Leave and merely rejected the one that nearly everyone agrees is unacceptable.

    One can disagree, but it's just silly to argue that Corbyn is defying the party by this. It's what we've agreed to do, and he's sticking to it.
    Permanent Customs Union of course means we cannot ever do our own trade deals so May is not going to agree to that, other than that Corbyn basically agrees with the Deal
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 56,070
    edited January 3
    Foxy said:

    What is the earliest date by which a General Election couldn't be held before March 29th? Given May shows no signs whatsoever of calling such an election or withdrawing Article 50, and Corbyn won't facilitate a second referendum, then that is when the penny is going to drop for Remainers - it's Hard Brexit or May's Shit Deal.

    Pop Quiz, Remainers: What do you do?

    Revocation requires the least time of any of the options, so Remainers have the upper hand in any game of brinkmanship.
    I really hope you are right, but i am preparing for WTO.
    I reckon that Labour will hold their line, and that Mays Deal will be voted down by her own party. There is no sign that Labour MPs are weakening on this, and SNP and LD look solid too.

    So popcorn time, while stocks last, and No Deal a definite possibility, depending on May's reaction.
    Except the only way Corbyn gets a general election is if the Deal goes through and the DUP back a VONC.

    If we go to No Deal Corbyn will be responsible for refusing to back May's Deal while most Tory MPs back it and he will likely get no general election either as the DUP will still back the Tories
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 18,631
    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    3. Block a No Deal by putting in killer amendments to every bit of legislation in sight which will paralyse government if we simply leave without a deal. These amendments have majority support in Parliament.

    That wouldn't block a no-deal Brexit, just make the chaos far worse if one happened. The only way to guarantee we leave with a deal is to vote for the one on offer.
    no deal is better than a bad deal, Theresa said so!
    No dance is better than a bad dance, but that didn't stop her!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 56,070

    What is the earliest date by which a General Election couldn't be held before March 29th? Given May shows no signs whatsoever of calling such an election or withdrawing Article 50, and Corbyn won't facilitate a second referendum, then that is when the penny is going to drop for Remainers - it's Hard Brexit or May's Shit Deal.

    Pop Quiz, Remainers: What do you do?

    Revocation requires the least time of any of the options, so Remainers have the upper hand in any game of brinkmanship.
    Revocation will lead to near Civil War without a referendum and a UKIP/Tommy Robinson/Farage party surge
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 56,070
    timmo said:

    HYUFD said:

    Unless Labour voters really start to shift to the LDs Corbyn will continue to rule out EUref2 and get away with it

    And that won't happen with Uncle Vince in charge..
    I doubt it makes a differences leads the LDs more if Corbyn backs Brexit until Brexit Day with no EUref2 then a shift from Labour to LD could occur
  • JonWCJonWC Posts: 154
    HYUFD said:

    What is the earliest date by which a General Election couldn't be held before March 29th? Given May shows no signs whatsoever of calling such an election or withdrawing Article 50, and Corbyn won't facilitate a second referendum, then that is when the penny is going to drop for Remainers - it's Hard Brexit or May's Shit Deal.

    Pop Quiz, Remainers: What do you do?

    Revocation requires the least time of any of the options, so Remainers have the upper hand in any game of brinkmanship.
    Revocation will lead to near Civil War without a referendum and a UKIP/Tommy Robinson/Farage party surge
    It would even with the referendum of course, especially if the "People's vote" managed to rig the vote in any of one of the ways they seem awfully keen on. Suppose we had a remain option which won. Somewhere between 30% and 50% of the population would be somewhere between mildly irritated and absolutely incandescent. There aren't many things that tip people over the edge more surely than a feeling of being cheated and/or betrayed.

    Every time someone believes they have been undercut by an immigrant worker, or they feel their child gets no attention because 25pct of the primary class don't speak English.. well you know how that ends.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 56,070
    JonWC said:

    HYUFD said:

    What is the earliest date by which a General Election couldn't be held before March 29th? Given May shows no signs whatsoever of calling such an election or withdrawing Article 50, and Corbyn won't facilitate a second referendum, then that is when the penny is going to drop for Remainers - it's Hard Brexit or May's Shit Deal.

    Pop Quiz, Remainers: What do you do?

    Revocation requires the least time of any of the options, so Remainers have the upper hand in any game of brinkmanship.
    Revocation will lead to near Civil War without a referendum and a UKIP/Tommy Robinson/Farage party surge
    It would even with the referendum of course, especially if the "People's vote" managed to rig the vote in any of one of the ways they seem awfully keen on. Suppose we had a remain option which won. Somewhere between 30% and 50% of the population would be somewhere between mildly irritated and absolutely incandescent. There aren't many things that tip people over the edge more surely than a feeling of being cheated and/or betrayed.

    Every time someone believes they have been undercut by an immigrant worker, or they feel their child gets no attention because 25pct of the primary class don't speak English.. well you know how that ends.
    If Remain wins, most likely if No Deal looks a strong prospect, then yes as least 40%+ of voters will be furious and UKIP or a successor will exploit that
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 9,074
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    What is the earliest date by which a General Election couldn't be held before March 29th? Given May shows no signs whatsoever of calling such an election or withdrawing Article 50, and Corbyn won't facilitate a second referendum, then that is when the penny is going to drop for Remainers - it's Hard Brexit or May's Shit Deal.

    Pop Quiz, Remainers: What do you do?

    Revocation requires the least time of any of the options, so Remainers have the upper hand in any game of brinkmanship.
    I really hope you are right, but i am preparing for WTO.
    I reckon that Labour will hold their line, and that Mays Deal will be voted down by her own party. There is no sign that Labour MPs are weakening on this, and SNP and LD look solid too.

    So popcorn time, while stocks last, and No Deal a definite possibility, depending on May's reaction.
    Except the only way Corbyn gets a general election is if the Deal goes through and the DUP back a VONC.

    If we go to No Deal Corbyn will be responsible for refusing to back May's Deal while most Tory MPs back it and he will likely get no general election either as the DUP will still back the Tories
    Nah. May is in the driving seat when it happens. Corbyn is merely the backseat driver.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 29,195
    On topic, it’s quite funny that punters - as well as his true believers - were actually labouring under the misapprehension that Corbyn might engineer a route to Remain.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 1,283

    The EU has said repeatedly that it's specifically the "no permanent customs union" red line that prevents reopening the deal.

    This is not true. The withdrawal agreement would not change even if we were seeking a permanent customs union as part of the future relationship.
    One of the EU's planning assumptions for the trade talks must surely be that the UK will have a different administration and very likely different future relationship and trade negotiation end goals. The WA and FFA have been written specifically with this likelihood in mind.

    Thus, although May's ideas have been worked up a little in the FFA, the EU are ready for someone wanting to do a Canada deal or permanent CU / Turkey or Norway or whatever. That suggests to me that if Corbyn demands permanent CU, May tries to hear it off by the same tactics as she uses with the ERG: clarification.

    As with the ERG, I am sceptical that this will cut the mustard.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 18,631
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    What is the earliest date by which a General Election couldn't be held before March 29th? Given May shows no signs whatsoever of calling such an election or withdrawing Article 50, and Corbyn won't facilitate a second referendum, then that is when the penny is going to drop for Remainers - it's Hard Brexit or May's Shit Deal.

    Pop Quiz, Remainers: What do you do?

    Revocation requires the least time of any of the options, so Remainers have the upper hand in any game of brinkmanship.
    I really hope you are right, but i am preparing for WTO.
    I reckon that Labour will hold their line, and that Mays Deal will be voted down by her own party. There is no sign that Labour MPs are weakening on this, and SNP and LD look solid too.

    So popcorn time, while stocks last, and No Deal a definite possibility, depending on May's reaction.
    Except the only way Corbyn gets a general election is if the Deal goes through and the DUP back a VONC.

    If we go to No Deal Corbyn will be responsible for refusing to back May's Deal while most Tory MPs back it and he will likely get no general election either as the DUP will still back the Tories
    Nah. May is in the driving seat when it happens. Corbyn is merely the backseat driver.
    I thought Corbyn was a motorcyclist? Therefore surely he's in the sidecar?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 49,750
    Mr. Doethur, just one more occasion where a morris dancer would've done a better job!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 29,195

    kle4 said:

    So he's saying Corbyn is NOT defying calls for a second referendum?

    I'm confused by the labour position on all this. Not least the cries of betrayal previously about Corbyn following the actual party policy rather than what people wished was party policy. So now I don't know whether he is changing position or not or if he's just pulling a May, putting off a decision or sticking to one position long past the point it is no longer viable.
    Apparently this is what he thinks Corbyn’s Brexit policy is.
    When I first saw this tweet I thought it was a spoof!

    But they’re deadly serious. Deadly.
    Is Brazil still considered one of international socialism’s comrades now Bolsonaro has taken over?

    Looks like that food and coffee will need to come from somewhere else.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 7,423
    edited January 3
    All political leaders have a limited quantity of political capital which they can use to shape the country before the public's tolerance for them is exhausted. Some have more than others.

    I don't suppose Blair ever intended to use the last of his political capital waging war in the Middle East, but he did. Similarly it would be a trifle strange if Corbyn finds that he spends his unexpectedly large stash mostly on ensuring Brexit happens.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 11,402

    On topic, it’s quite funny that punters - as well as his true believers - were actually labouring under the misapprehension that Corbyn might engineer a route to Remain.

    The true believers have stilted the markets ever since the campaign. I still can’t believe I got 15/1 at 10pm on referendum day...

    Everything we have seen of May, and every constitutional avenue, suggests that we’re leaving on March 29th. To deny that takes a special kind of denial.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 56,070

    kle4 said:

    So he's saying Corbyn is NOT defying calls for a second referendum?

    I'm confused by the labour position on all this. Not least the cries of betrayal previously about Corbyn following the actual party policy rather than what people wished was party policy. So now I don't know whether he is changing position or not or if he's just pulling a May, putting off a decision or sticking to one position long past the point it is no longer viable.
    Apparently this is what he thinks Corbyn’s Brexit policy is.
    When I first saw this tweet I thought it was a spoof!

    But they’re deadly serious. Deadly.
    Is Brazil still considered one of international socialism’s comrades now Bolsonaro has taken over?

    Looks like that food and coffee will need to come from somewhere else.
    No Mexico is instead now Corbyn's pal Lopez Obrador is in charge
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 18,631

    Mr. Doethur, just one more occasion where a morris dancer would've done a better job!

    Theresa would have told us we could whiffle for it.

    Have a good morning.
  • JonWCJonWC Posts: 154

    On topic, it’s quite funny that punters - as well as his true believers - were actually labouring under the misapprehension that Corbyn might engineer a route to Remain.

    Agreed. It just amazes me given all the things he has said and done over the years. Even now he is dropping subtle hints by tossing in State Aid objections at every opportunity. When he does so a whole army of people emerge from the woodwork to say that EU rules wouldn't block Corbyn's policies, but he clearly knows perfectly well they would.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 18,648
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    What is the earliest date by which a General Election couldn't be held before March 29th? Given May shows no signs whatsoever of calling such an election or withdrawing Article 50, and Corbyn won't facilitate a second referendum, then that is when the penny is going to drop for Remainers - it's Hard Brexit or May's Shit Deal.

    Pop Quiz, Remainers: What do you do?

    Revocation requires the least time of any of the options, so Remainers have the upper hand in any game of brinkmanship.
    I really hope you are right, but i am preparing for WTO.
    I reckon that Labour will hold their line, and that Mays Deal will be voted down by her own party. There is no sign that Labour MPs are weakening on this, and SNP and LD look solid too.

    So popcorn time, while stocks last, and No Deal a definite possibility, depending on May's reaction.
    Except the only way Corbyn gets a general election is if the Deal goes through and the DUP back a VONC.

    If we go to No Deal Corbyn will be responsible for refusing to back May's Deal while most Tory MPs back it and he will likely get no general election either as the DUP will still back the Tories
    If May secures her deal and parliament brings her down, I wouldn't fancy Corbyn's chances in an early GE
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 18,631

    kle4 said:

    So he's saying Corbyn is NOT defying calls for a second referendum?

    I'm confused by the labour position on all this. Not least the cries of betrayal previously about Corbyn following the actual party policy rather than what people wished was party policy. So now I don't know whether he is changing position or not or if he's just pulling a May, putting off a decision or sticking to one position long past the point it is no longer viable.
    Apparently this is what he thinks Corbyn’s Brexit policy is.
    When I first saw this tweet I thought it was a spoof!

    But they’re deadly serious. Deadly.
    Is Brazil still considered one of international socialism’s comrades now Bolsonaro has taken over?

    Looks like that food and coffee will need to come from somewhere else.
    And as for Venezuelan oil and gas:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/venezuela-oil-imports-economy-industry-heavy-refining-efficiency-a8307161.html

    But then Bastani always did make the Bursar of Unseen University look reasonably in touch with reality.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 27,781

    What is the earliest date by which a General Election couldn't be held before March 29th? Given May shows no signs whatsoever of calling such an election or withdrawing Article 50, and Corbyn won't facilitate a second referendum, then that is when the penny is going to drop for Remainers - it's Hard Brexit or May's Shit Deal.

    Pop Quiz, Remainers: What do you do?

    Revocation requires the least time of any of the options, so Remainers have the upper hand in any game of brinkmanship.
    They'd have to change the government, first.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 2,883
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    What is the earliest date by which a General Election couldn't be held before March 29th? Given May shows no signs whatsoever of calling such an election or withdrawing Article 50, and Corbyn won't facilitate a second referendum, then that is when the penny is going to drop for Remainers - it's Hard Brexit or May's Shit Deal.

    Pop Quiz, Remainers: What do you do?

    Revocation requires the least time of any of the options, so Remainers have the upper hand in any game of brinkmanship.
    I really hope you are right, but i am preparing for WTO.
    I reckon that Labour will hold their line, and that Mays Deal will be voted down by her own party. There is no sign that Labour MPs are weakening on this, and SNP and LD look solid too.

    So popcorn time, while stocks last, and No Deal a definite possibility, depending on May's reaction.
    Except the only way Corbyn gets a general election is if the Deal goes through and the DUP back a VONC.

    If we go to No Deal Corbyn will be responsible for refusing to back May's Deal while most Tory MPs back it and he will likely get no general election either as the DUP will still back the Tories
    There's no way Corbyn is going to trust the DUP to give him a GE.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 310
    Well, Thank you and Good Night Jeremy Corbyn.

    So, if you are a Rejoiner/Remainer you can't vote Labour.

    Any markets on Highest LibDem poll rating in the next three months?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 3,526
    HYUFD said:

    What is the earliest date by which a General Election couldn't be held before March 29th? Given May shows no signs whatsoever of calling such an election or withdrawing Article 50, and Corbyn won't facilitate a second referendum, then that is when the penny is going to drop for Remainers - it's Hard Brexit or May's Shit Deal.

    Pop Quiz, Remainers: What do you do?

    Revocation requires the least time of any of the options, so Remainers have the upper hand in any game of brinkmanship.
    Revocation will lead to near Civil War without a referendum and a UKIP/Tommy Robinson/Farage party surge
    What does "near civil war" actually mean? The British population is completely disarmed and under continuous broad spectrum surveillance.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 49,750
    Interesting. The UK leaving the EU with no agreement before 1 April this year has been suspended as a market on Ladbrokes (was 4). Other odds on similar matters are unchanged.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 25,196
    This was to be expected (indeed I predicted last week that Jeremy Corbyn would continue to ignore the wishes of the party faithful).
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 11,402
    Cicero said:

    Well, Thank you and Good Night Jeremy Corbyn.

    So, if you are a Rejoiner/Remainer you can't vote Labour.

    Any markets on Highest LibDem poll rating in the next three months?

    The Lib who’s?

    More seriously, of course it should. But I won’t hold my breath with Uncle Vince.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 18,648
    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:

    What is the earliest date by which a General Election couldn't be held before March 29th? Given May shows no signs whatsoever of calling such an election or withdrawing Article 50, and Corbyn won't facilitate a second referendum, then that is when the penny is going to drop for Remainers - it's Hard Brexit or May's Shit Deal.

    Pop Quiz, Remainers: What do you do?

    Revocation requires the least time of any of the options, so Remainers have the upper hand in any game of brinkmanship.
    Revocation will lead to near Civil War without a referendum and a UKIP/Tommy Robinson/Farage party surge
    What does "near civil war" actually mean? The British population is completely disarmed and under continuous broad spectrum surveillance.
    Just the usual hyperbole from HY. UKIP is barely functioning.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 27,781
    Cicero said:

    Well, Thank you and Good Night Jeremy Corbyn.

    So, if you are a Rejoiner/Remainer you can't vote Labour.

    Any markets on Highest LibDem poll rating in the next three months?

    But, I think Stephen Bush is correct that Corbyn's followers will forgive him over the EU, because of his left wing record.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 23,828
    FF43 said:

    Impressive. Sooner rather than later IMO China will send a manned mission to the moon.

    (Snip)

    AIUI that's their stated aim. The insignia for the Chinese lunar exploration program even contains two footprints. They're accelerating their program for their Long March 9 Heavy Launch Vehicle (which is about the same class as a Saturn V in terms of performance), although there are rumours that that project has hit snags.

    In related news, Musk and SpaceX are making a rocket that looks curiously like a stainless steel grain silo.... ;)

    It's awesome.

    https://spacenews.com/musk-teases-new-details-about-redesigned-next-generation-launch-system/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 56,070
    edited January 3
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    What is the earliest date by which a General Election couldn't be held before March 29th? Given May shows no signs whatsoever of calling such an election or withdrawing Article 50, and Corbyn won't facilitate a second referendum, then that is when the penny is going to drop for Remainers - it's Hard Brexit or May's Shit Deal.

    Pop Quiz, Remainers: What do you do?

    Revocation requires the least time of any of the options, so Remainers have the upper hand in any game of brinkmanship.
    I really hope you are right, but i am preparing for WTO.
    I reckon that Labour will hold their line, and that Mays Deal will be voted down by her own party. There is no sign that Labour MPs are weakening on this, and SNP and LD look solid too.

    So popcorn time, while stocks last, and No Deal a definite possibility, depending on May's reaction.
    Except the only way Corbyn gets a general election is if the Deal goes through and the DUP back a VONC.

    If we go to No Deal Corbyn will be responsible for refusing to back May's Deal while most Tory MPs back it and he will likely get no general election either as the DUP will still back the Tories
    Nah. May is in the driving seat when it happens. Corbyn is merely the backseat driver.
    If we head for No Deal the Tories vote will be largely unchanged, Tory Remainers will blame Corbyn for rejecting May's Deal and the Tories may even win back some voters from UKIP.

    Labour on the other hand may well see leakage of Remainers to the LDs in an effort to stop Brexit
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 11,896
    Cicero said:

    Well, Thank you and Good Night Jeremy Corbyn.

    So, if you are a Rejoiner/Remainer you can't vote Labour.

    Any markets on Highest LibDem poll rating in the next three months?

    The problem for the Lib Dem’s is twofold...

    1) They have no power, 1% of Corbyn is worth more than 100% of the whole LibDems
    2) LibDems are not exactly trustworthy to a left leaning voter. They put the Tories into power and share responsibility for the chaos.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 27,781
    IanB2 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:

    What is the earliest date by which a General Election couldn't be held before March 29th? Given May shows no signs whatsoever of calling such an election or withdrawing Article 50, and Corbyn won't facilitate a second referendum, then that is when the penny is going to drop for Remainers - it's Hard Brexit or May's Shit Deal.

    Pop Quiz, Remainers: What do you do?

    Revocation requires the least time of any of the options, so Remainers have the upper hand in any game of brinkmanship.
    Revocation will lead to near Civil War without a referendum and a UKIP/Tommy Robinson/Farage party surge
    What does "near civil war" actually mean? The British population is completely disarmed and under continuous broad spectrum surveillance.
    Just the usual hyperbole from HY. UKIP is barely functioning.
    More likely, we'd elect a full slate of loons to the EU Parliament, and the issue would be revisited in the future.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 56,070
    IanB2 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:

    What is the earliest date by which a General Election couldn't be held before March 29th? Given May shows no signs whatsoever of calling such an election or withdrawing Article 50, and Corbyn won't facilitate a second referendum, then that is when the penny is going to drop for Remainers - it's Hard Brexit or May's Shit Deal.

    Pop Quiz, Remainers: What do you do?

    Revocation requires the least time of any of the options, so Remainers have the upper hand in any game of brinkmanship.
    Revocation will lead to near Civil War without a referendum and a UKIP/Tommy Robinson/Farage party surge
    What does "near civil war" actually mean? The British population is completely disarmed and under continuous broad spectrum surveillance.
    Just the usual hyperbole from HY. UKIP is barely functioning.
    If Brexit was reversed it would see a quicker revival than Lazarus, it is already up to around 5%+ in most polls. Farage would also launch a new party, we could mirror Europe with a far right party on 20%+
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 56,070
    FF43 said:

    Impressive. Sooner rather than later IMO China will send a manned mission to the moon.



    Small irony. China firewalls Twitter.

    A man on Mars would be more impressive, the US sent a man to the Moon decades ago
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 25,196
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:

    What is the earliest date by which a General Election couldn't be held before March 29th? Given May shows no signs whatsoever of calling such an election or withdrawing Article 50, and Corbyn won't facilitate a second referendum, then that is when the penny is going to drop for Remainers - it's Hard Brexit or May's Shit Deal.

    Pop Quiz, Remainers: What do you do?

    Revocation requires the least time of any of the options, so Remainers have the upper hand in any game of brinkmanship.
    Revocation will lead to near Civil War without a referendum and a UKIP/Tommy Robinson/Farage party surge
    What does "near civil war" actually mean? The British population is completely disarmed and under continuous broad spectrum surveillance.
    Just the usual hyperbole from HY. UKIP is barely functioning.
    If Brexit was reversed it would see a quicker revival than Lazarus, it is already up to around 5%+ in most polls. Farage would also launch a new party, we could mirror Europe with a far right party on 20%+
    Britain already has a far right party on nearly 40% in the polls.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 11,896
    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Impressive. Sooner rather than later IMO China will send a manned mission to the moon.



    Small irony. China firewalls Twitter.

    A man on Mars would be more impressive, the US sent a man to the Moon decades ago
    Underlines how backwards we are. We couldn’t do this.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 10,911
    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Impressive. Sooner rather than later IMO China will send a manned mission to the moon.



    Small irony. China firewalls Twitter.

    A man on Mars would be more impressive, the US sent a man to the Moon decades ago
    Underlines how backwards we are. We couldn’t do this.
    Concorde was a far more impressive achievement (if not commercially).
  • RogerRoger Posts: 11,346
    edited January 3

    I don't get it, wasn't this always his position?

    Yes, and it's also the party position agreed at the conference, for all that the Guardian would like it to be different. The sequencing is clear and it hasn't changed:

    1. Offer May a deal on Labour terms (permanent customs union is the simple one, but if she engaged there would be haggling over other things). The EU has said repeatedly that it's specifically the "no permanent customs union" red line that prevents reopening the deal. However, she's not interested and the clock is ticking. So...

    2. Vote down the May deal. It's the only one on the table, and needs to be considered. It offers a low-grade second-class associate membership. There are probably enough votes to reject it clearly.

    3. Block a No Deal by putting in killer amendments to every bit of legislation in sight which will paralyse government if we simply leave without a deal. These amendments have majority support in Parliament.

    4. Seek a General Election through a VONC, to offer people a choice of delayed A50 and new negotiations without May's red lines. This is, frankly, likely to fail to get a majority.

    5. Seek a second referendum, as other alternatives have been exhausted.

    The Guardian and People's Vote campaigners (who bear an uncanny resemblance to a subset of the anti-Corbyn people) want to lift step 5 to step 1. But that means "join the Remain conspiracy" - it fails to show that we've made reasonable efforts to respect the referendum. Reach step 5 and there's a defensible case that we've offered alternative implementations of Leave and merely rejected the one that nearly everyone agrees is unacceptable.

    One can disagree, but it's just silly to argue that Corbyn is defying the party by this. It's what we've agreed to do, and he's sticking to it.
    Thank you. Very useful. Pity there isn't a notice board somewhere where it can be pinned because my sense is that very few people know this. Labour's policy understood by most is one of unprincipled opportunism which is not appealing to Remainers or Leavers.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 56,070

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:

    What is the earliest date by which a General Election couldn't be held before March 29th? Given May shows no signs whatsoever of calling such an election or withdrawing Article 50, and Corbyn won't facilitate a second referendum, then that is when the penny is going to drop for Remainers - it's Hard Brexit or May's Shit Deal.

    Pop Quiz, Remainers: What do you do?

    Revocation requires the least time of any of the options, so Remainers have the upper hand in any game of brinkmanship.
    Revocation will lead to near Civil War without a referendum and a UKIP/Tommy Robinson/Farage party surge
    What does "near civil war" actually mean? The British population is completely disarmed and under continuous broad spectrum surveillance.
    Just the usual hyperbole from HY. UKIP is barely functioning.
    If Brexit was reversed it would see a quicker revival than Lazarus, it is already up to around 5%+ in most polls. Farage would also launch a new party, we could mirror Europe with a far right party on 20%+
    Britain already has a far right party on nearly 40% in the polls.
    52% of the voters are far right in your view
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 11,896
    tlg86 said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Impressive. Sooner rather than later IMO China will send a manned mission to the moon.



    Small irony. China firewalls Twitter.

    A man on Mars would be more impressive, the US sent a man to the Moon decades ago
    Underlines how backwards we are. We couldn’t do this.
    Concorde was a far more impressive achievement (if not commercially).
    We couldn’t do that today either.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 18,648

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:

    What is the earliest date by which a General Election couldn't be held before March 29th? Given May shows no signs whatsoever of calling such an election or withdrawing Article 50, and Corbyn won't facilitate a second referendum, then that is when the penny is going to drop for Remainers - it's Hard Brexit or May's Shit Deal.

    Pop Quiz, Remainers: What do you do?

    Revocation requires the least time of any of the options, so Remainers have the upper hand in any game of brinkmanship.
    Revocation will lead to near Civil War without a referendum and a UKIP/Tommy Robinson/Farage party surge
    What does "near civil war" actually mean? The British population is completely disarmed and under continuous broad spectrum surveillance.
    Just the usual hyperbole from HY. UKIP is barely functioning.
    If Brexit was reversed it would see a quicker revival than Lazarus, it is already up to around 5%+ in most polls. Farage would also launch a new party, we could mirror Europe with a far right party on 20%+
    Britain already has a far right party on nearly 40% in the polls.
    Exactly. If the opposition overturns Brexit, the Tories will be well placed to mop up most of the reasonable leavers, at the cost of finally losing their business-friendly remainer wing. The idea that people are going to vote for Tommy Robinson in huge numbers is for the birds. But HY always did type first and think later (or not at all).
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 25,196
    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Impressive. Sooner rather than later IMO China will send a manned mission to the moon.



    Small irony. China firewalls Twitter.

    A man on Mars would be more impressive, the US sent a man to the Moon decades ago
    Underlines how backwards we are. We couldn’t do this.
    Blame the voters. The vision has been set out by a UKIP candidate, and he was spurned, spurned, by the electorate.

    https://www.eadt.co.uk/news/election-2017-south-suffolk-ukip-hopeful-aims-for-interstellar-travel-1-5026406
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 56,070
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:

    What is the earliest date by which a General Election couldn't be held before March 29th? Given May shows no signs whatsoever of calling such an election or withdrawing Article 50, and Corbyn won't facilitate a second referendum, then that is when the penny is going to drop for Remainers - it's Hard Brexit or May's Shit Deal.

    Pop Quiz, Remainers: What do you do?

    Revocation requires the least time of any of the options, so Remainers have the upper hand in any game of brinkmanship.
    Revocation will lead to near Civil War without a referendum and a UKIP/Tommy Robinson/Farage party surge
    What does "near civil war" actually mean? The British population is completely disarmed and under continuous broad spectrum surveillance.
    Just the usual hyperbole from HY. UKIP is barely functioning.
    If Brexit was reversed it would see a quicker revival than Lazarus, it is already up to around 5%+ in most polls. Farage would also launch a new party, we could mirror Europe with a far right party on 20%+
    Britain already has a far right party on nearly 40% in the polls.
    Exactly. If the opposition overturns Brexit, the Tories will be well placed to mop up most of the reasonable leavers, at the cost of finally losing their business-friendly remainer wing. The idea that people are going to vote for Tommy Robinson in huge numbers is for the birds. But HY always did type first and think later (or not at all).
    Up to a quarter to a third of voters could vote UKIP if the Tories overturned Brexit plus some Labour voters too, the vast majority of Tory voters are Leavers.

    The business Remain wing is still largely Tory over Corbyn
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 8,685

    There are, according to the Guardian, severe staff shortages developing in some, indeed many, parts of industry and commerce. Presumably these shortages will lead to the wage increases, which in some at least sectors are well overdue.
    Said shortages are alleged to be due to EU workers 'going home' or not coming.

    Hmm.

    I think a temporary labour shortage combined with a recession is quite likely. It's a lag effect. In time the economic contraction will reduce the demand for labour. Migration is neutral overall for employment. Migrants generate just enough economic activity to support their own jobs, although increased migration does result in indigenous population getting better and better paid jobs as migrants bottom feed.

    It will be felt in the tax base which will contact overall and in any services that require low paid labour. We can expect the NHS to have less money and fewer services.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 11,896

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Impressive. Sooner rather than later IMO China will send a manned mission to the moon.



    Small irony. China firewalls Twitter.

    A man on Mars would be more impressive, the US sent a man to the Moon decades ago
    Underlines how backwards we are. We couldn’t do this.
    Blame the voters. The vision has been set out by a UKIP candidate, and he was spurned, spurned, by the electorate.

    https://www.eadt.co.uk/news/election-2017-south-suffolk-ukip-hopeful-aims-for-interstellar-travel-1-5026406
    What a space cadet!
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 7,057
    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Impressive. Sooner rather than later IMO China will send a manned mission to the moon.



    Small irony. China firewalls Twitter.

    A man on Mars would be more impressive, the US sent a man to the Moon decades ago
    Underlines how backwards we are. We couldn’t do this.
    ... but in conjunction with Europe we could, and did, send a satellite and lander to a comet.
    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/end-of-an-era-uks-role-in-european-rosetta-mission-now-complete
  • RogerRoger Posts: 11,346
    Cicero said:

    Well, Thank you and Good Night Jeremy Corbyn.

    So, if you are a Rejoiner/Remainer you can't vote Labour.

    Any markets on Highest LibDem poll rating in the next three months?

    If only they could find a new and charismatic leader. Caroline Lucas would be perfect
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 23,828
    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Impressive. Sooner rather than later IMO China will send a manned mission to the moon.



    Small irony. China firewalls Twitter.

    A man on Mars would be more impressive, the US sent a man to the Moon decades ago
    Underlines how backwards we are. We couldn’t do this.
    You couldn't be more wrong if you tried. We don't have the capability to *launch* rockets (although that might come soon for small nanosats or cubesats from Scotland or Cornwall), but much of that is down to our geographic position.

    However we are a major player in satellites. Our space market was work £13.7 billion in 2014/5, about 7% of the global market. That's a major success story considering we don't have launch services.

    But tbf launchers are sexy, but not where the money is. This is why SpaceX is starting a constellation of satellites: that's where the money is. And we're very well placed in that market - and more so as the market moves towards the smaller satellites that we excel in.

    As another example, an Israeli company is planning to land a probe on the Moon in the nextt few months, launched (I think) from a Falcon 9. The rockets are just the trucks. What matters is the cargo, and we could easily do this if there was political will.

    But we probably shouldn't.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 24,387
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:

    What is the earliest date by which a General Election couldn't be held before March 29th? Given May shows no signs whatsoever of calling such an election or withdrawing Article 50, and Corbyn won't facilitate a second referendum, then that is when the penny is going to drop for Remainers - it's Hard Brexit or May's Shit Deal.

    Pop Quiz, Remainers: What do you do?

    Revocation requires the least time of any of the options, so Remainers have the upper hand in any game of brinkmanship.
    Revocation will lead to near Civil War without a referendum and a UKIP/Tommy Robinson/Farage party surge
    What does "near civil war" actually mean? The British population is completely disarmed and under continuous broad spectrum surveillance.
    Just the usual hyperbole from HY. UKIP is barely functioning.
    If Brexit was reversed it would see a quicker revival than Lazarus, it is already up to around 5%+ in most polls. Farage would also launch a new party, we could mirror Europe with a far right party on 20%+
    Britain already has a far right party on nearly 40% in the polls.
    Exactly. If the opposition overturns Brexit, the Tories will be well placed to mop up most of the reasonable leavers, at the cost of finally losing their business-friendly remainer wing. The idea that people are going to vote for Tommy Robinson in huge numbers is for the birds. But HY always did type first and think later (or not at all).
    Up to a quarter to a third of voters could vote UKIP if the Tories overturned Brexit plus some Labour voters too, the vast majority of Tory voters are Leavers.

    The business Remain wing is still largely Tory over Corbyn
    If we end up either revoking A50 or a second referendum overturning the first it will depend on many factors how it pans out for the political parties and the mechanism employed to bring about this dramatic reverse.

    If the HOC, through amendments to the meaningful vote, endorse a second referendum or even to revoke A50 it will be interesting to see how TM reacts and until matters become more certain, everything is just speculation
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 11,896

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Impressive. Sooner rather than later IMO China will send a manned mission to the moon.



    Small irony. China firewalls Twitter.

    A man on Mars would be more impressive, the US sent a man to the Moon decades ago
    Underlines how backwards we are. We couldn’t do this.
    You couldn't be more wrong if you tried. We don't have the capability to *launch* rockets (although that might come soon for small nanosats or cubesats from Scotland or Cornwall), but much of that is down to our geographic position.

    However we are a major player in satellites. Our space market was work £13.7 billion in 2014/5, about 7% of the global market. That's a major success story considering we don't have launch services.

    But tbf launchers are sexy, but not where the money is. This is why SpaceX is starting a constellation of satellites: that's where the money is. And we're very well placed in that market - and more so as the market moves towards the smaller satellites that we excel in.

    As another example, an Israeli company is planning to land a probe on the Moon in the nextt few months, launched (I think) from a Falcon 9. The rockets are just the trucks. What matters is the cargo, and we could easily do this if there was political will.

    But we probably shouldn't.
    That’s a big ‘if’. We can’t even manage the political will to do choo choo trains anymore.
This discussion has been closed.