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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Sanders drops to 6% chance in the WH2020 nominee betting follo

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited January 3 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Sanders drops to 6% chance in the WH2020 nominee betting following claims of sexual harassment during last campaign

The question of whether Bernie Sanders will run in WH2020 has been put in doubt following claims by staffers of sexual harassment during his 2016 campaign. Politico is reporting:

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • RobDRobD Posts: 35,302
    First.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 5,936
    2nd like the UK... :(
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 22,536
    Another instance for the long list where laying the favourite would prove profitable.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 47,008
    Good afternoon, my fellow gamers.

    All your base are belong to us:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-46746593

    On-topic: age is a factor but next time the Democrat field will be rather more competitive too.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 3,143
    Fpt:

    No Deal destroys the Tory party for a generation. Following a (brief) period of civil emergency, we will be forced to sign up to a series of disadvantageous agreements with the EU just to keep the proverbial lights on.

    It will be one of those oh shit moments like the collapse of Lehmans. I’d expect May to be ousted by her own Cabinet, perhaps after failed attempts to form a government of National Unity - May herself would not resign to avoid doing a Cameron.

    No, May will not opt for a “No Deal”.

    Although she is said to he totally against a referendum, seeing it as a betrayal of the vote, it does in fact offer a lifeline to her and her Party.

    If her deal wins, May is safe, and Remainerdom will be vanquished. Having failed twice to persuade the public, I’d expect all but the most militant Remainers to shut up.

    If Remain wins, I’d expect May to throw Eurosceptics a bone - perhaps even the promise of a third Referendum - but only after a Commission has examined various Options. Some of the fruitier Tories could jump to a moderately revitalised “Farage Party” - which will have used the referendum as a springboard to national relevance - but not enough to make a difference. Remain actually *benefits* the Tories as it helps them start the beginning of the detox they will need for post-Corbyn battles.
  • He was always one to lay, from last year, apart from their ages, I wasn't backing Biden for similar reasons.

    https://www.economist.com/democracy-in-america/2018/10/04/joe-bidens-metoo-problem
  • This is why Jeremy Hunt looks like a Prime Minister in waiting.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 6,775
    the woke eat themselves.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 1,953

    This is why Jeremy Hunt looks like a Prime Minister in waiting.
    A man with no principles or beliefs beyond arrogance and his own advancement. A worthy successor to the two men who created today's Tory Party, David Cameron and Boris Johnson.
  • This is why Jeremy Hunt looks like a Prime Minister in waiting.
    A man with no principles or beliefs beyond arrogance and his own advancement. A worthy successor to the two men who created today's Tory Party, David Cameron and Boris Johnson.
    A successful businessman, magnificent Secretary of State for Health where he obtained record funding for the NHS, and has gravitas to be PM, as evidenced by his stint as Foreign Secretary.
  • Mind you if a self confessed pussy grabber can become President why not Bernie?
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 1,887

    Mind you if a self confessed pussy grabber can become President why not Bernie?

    The Democrat establishment and voter-base is less tolerant of this. See the treatment of Al Franken last year.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 3,143

    This is why Jeremy Hunt looks like a Prime Minister in waiting.
    A man with no principles or beliefs beyond arrogance and his own advancement. A worthy successor to the two men who created today's Tory Party, David Cameron and Boris Johnson.
    A successful businessman, magnificent Secretary of State for Health where he obtained record funding for the NHS, and has gravitas to be PM, as evidenced by his stint as Foreign Secretary.
    There’s little evidence of any real achievement from Hunt, after nearly 9 continuous years in Cabinet. His chief merit appears to be that he is *not* Javid.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 47,008
    Mr. Walker, not being someone may well be enough to get through to the final two.
  • This is why Jeremy Hunt looks like a Prime Minister in waiting.
    A man with no principles or beliefs beyond arrogance and his own advancement. A worthy successor to the two men who created today's Tory Party, David Cameron and Boris Johnson.
    A successful businessman, magnificent Secretary of State for Health where he obtained record funding for the NHS, and has gravitas to be PM, as evidenced by his stint as Foreign Secretary.
    There’s little evidence of any real achievement from Hunt, after nearly 9 continuous years in Cabinet. His chief merit appears to be that he is *not* Javid.
    Not being Boris helps as well.
  • Quincel said:

    Mind you if a self confessed pussy grabber can become President why not Bernie?

    The Democrat establishment and voter-base is less tolerant of this. See the treatment of Al Franken last year.
    This is true.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 18,962

    Fpt:

    Following a (brief) period of civil emergency,.

    A civil emergency due to brie supplies being delayed at Calais for a few extra hours ?

    Give me strength..
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 7,187

    This is why Jeremy Hunt looks like a Prime Minister in waiting.
    Not so much waiting as chapping at the door wanting to be let in.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 18,962

    This is why Jeremy Hunt looks like a Prime Minister in waiting.
    Not so much waiting as chapping at the door wanting to be let in.
    Replacing a grey managerial regime with no Tory principles with a slightly less grey clone is precisely what the country doesn't need.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 5,436
    edited January 3

    This is why Jeremy Hunt looks like a Prime Minister in waiting.
    The Sajid disagrees. The Sajid knows best. Watch out for The Sajid.

    The Sajid abides.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 7,187
    TGOHF said:

    Fpt:

    Following a (brief) period of civil emergency,.

    A civil emergency due to brie supplies being delayed at Calais for a few extra hours ?

    Give me strength..
    Hurray! Another excuse to post....



  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,214
    I think these kind of developments point towards a Trump second term. Purity over power.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 21,849

    Mr. Walker, not being someone may well be enough to get through to the final two.

    Not being much good will be sussed by the members though.
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,214
    Could someone in the republican party do a Macron?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 18,962
    nielh said:

    Could someone in the republican party do a Macron?

    Trump tried but his approval rating is on the way back up..
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 1,953

    This is why Jeremy Hunt looks like a Prime Minister in waiting.
    A man with no principles or beliefs beyond arrogance and his own advancement. A worthy successor to the two men who created today's Tory Party, David Cameron and Boris Johnson.
    A successful businessman, magnificent Secretary of State for Health where he obtained record funding for the NHS, and has gravitas to be PM, as evidenced by his stint as Foreign Secretary.
    There’s little evidence of any real achievement from Hunt, after nearly 9 continuous years in Cabinet. His chief merit appears to be that he is *not* Javid.
    Most senior politicians have core beliefs that shine through the rhetoric and coded language in which they are forced to communicate. Thatcher believed in the free market, taming the unions, a unitary UK; Blair believed in his third way, combining free markets with attacks on poverty and exclusion, strong belief in Europe, even Brown and Major (and Corbyn of course) had clear beliefs and principles which, like them or not, guide their political careers. But what does Hunt believe? What kind of society does he want to create? And how would he go about it? What principle would he go to the stake for? None save his own career I think.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 12,972

    Fpt:

    No Deal destroys the Tory party for a generation. Following a (brief) period of civil emergency, we will be forced to sign up to a series of disadvantageous agreements with the EU just to keep the proverbial lights on.

    It will be one of those oh shit moments like the collapse of Lehmans. I’d expect May to be ousted by her own Cabinet, perhaps after failed attempts to form a government of National Unity - May herself would not resign to avoid doing a Cameron.

    No, May will not opt for a “No Deal”.

    Although she is said to he totally against a referendum, seeing it as a betrayal of the vote, it does in fact offer a lifeline to her and her Party.

    If her deal wins, May is safe, and Remainerdom will be vanquished. Having failed twice to persuade the public, I’d expect all but the most militant Remainers to shut up.

    If Remain wins, I’d expect May to throw Eurosceptics a bone - perhaps even the promise of a third Referendum - but only after a Commission has examined various Options. Some of the fruitier Tories could jump to a moderately revitalised “Farage Party” - which will have used the referendum as a springboard to national relevance - but not enough to make a difference. Remain actually *benefits* the Tories as it helps them start the beginning of the detox they will need for post-Corbyn battles.

    To her party, for sure, but I think she'd resign herself if parliament imposes a referendum (via whatever route), and took her 'red line' comments in December on the subject as preparing her case should she need one.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 18,962
    Hunt is a slightly better Hammond who is a poor man's Lansley.

  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,146
    edited January 3
    We can deduce several things from THE SAJ MAN's recent behaviour.

    1. He's a berk
    2. He's impatient, wants to be leader now, and he's prepared to debase himself and his office to achieve it
    3. His cabinet colleagues don't like him very much
    4. (Presumably) Hunt is worried that Sajid's immigrant-baiting will resonate with the gammons in the party and so The Saj (PBUH) needs to be brought down a peg or two
  • ChrisChris Posts: 1,394
    TGOHF said:

    Fpt:

    Following a (brief) period of civil emergency,.

    A civil emergency due to brie supplies being delayed at Calais for a few extra hours ?

    Give me strength..
    Quite right. We can always eat good English Cheddar, instead of that foreign muck!

    (What's that you say? We import 40% of our Cheddar? Infamy, infamy! That England, that was wont to conquer others ...)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 24,147
    TGOHF said:

    Fpt:

    Following a (brief) period of civil emergency,.

    A civil emergency due to brie supplies being delayed at Calais for a few extra hours ?

    Give me strength..
    If a car stops in the fast lane of the M1 for two hours, how long is the delay it causes?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 26,258

    This is why Jeremy Hunt looks like a Prime Minister in waiting.
    If Javid is getting criticised by the likes of Armando Iannucci, then he’s saying and doing all the right things to get elected.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 71,834
    edited January 3
    Karma’s great.

    Farmers will face a grim barrage of export tariffs, increased haulage costs, paperwork and looming labour shortages in the event of a no-deal Brexit, Michael Gove warned today.

    He painted a nightmare scenario for Britain’s food producers as he urged fellow MPs to back the prime minister’s Brexit deal.

    “It’s a grim but inescapable fact that in the event of a no-deal Brexit the effective tariffs of meat and sheep meat would be above 40 per cent. In some cases well above that,” Mr Gove told the Oxford Farming Conference.

    The National Farmers Union said that tariffs on beef exports could be up to 65 per cent and tariffs on lamb could be 46 per cent.

    Mr Gove, the cabinet’s leading Brexiteer, rejected suggestions that his warnings were a repeat of “Project Fear” — the term his fellow Brexiteers used to dismiss Remain campaigners’ warnings about what Brexit would entail.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/no-deal-brexit-will-be-nightmare-for-farmers-warns-gove-8cq77k5bb
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 18,962

    We can deduce several things from THE SAJ MAN's recent behaviour.

    1. He's a berk
    2. He's impatient, wants to be leader now, and he's prepared to debase himself and his office to achieve it
    3. His cabinet colleagues don't like him very much
    4. (Presumably) Hunt is worried that Sajid's immigrant-baiting will resonate with the gammons in the party and so The Saj (PBUH) needs to be brought down a peg or two

    3. May not be a bad thing.

    4. Saj paid attention to the voters for the last 4 years. Escaping from France is not a heroic activity.

  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 2,654
    His almost completely spherical head (almost Pilkington-esque) will play poorly in key midlands marginals.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 671

    Fpt:

    No Deal destroys the Tory party for a generation. Following a (brief) period of civil emergency, we will be forced to sign up to a series of disadvantageous agreements with the EU just to keep the proverbial lights on.

    It will be one of those oh shit moments like the collapse of Lehmans. I’d expect May to be ousted by her own Cabinet, perhaps after failed attempts to form a government of National Unity - May herself would not resign to avoid doing a Cameron.

    No, May will not opt for a “No Deal”.

    Although she is said to he totally against a referendum, seeing it as a betrayal of the vote, it does in fact offer a lifeline to her and her Party.

    If her deal wins, May is safe, and Remainerdom will be vanquished. Having failed twice to persuade the public, I’d expect all but the most militant Remainers to shut up.

    If Remain wins, I’d expect May to throw Eurosceptics a bone - perhaps even the promise of a third Referendum - but only after a Commission has examined various Options. Some of the fruitier Tories could jump to a moderately revitalised “Farage Party” - which will have used the referendum as a springboard to national relevance - but not enough to make a difference. Remain actually *benefits* the Tories as it helps them start the beginning of the detox they will need for post-Corbyn battles.

    Great! You have the bang opposite view to my brand new one.

    I reckon that No Brexit is what does most structural damage to the Tory party, for sure costs Mrs May her job, and that No Deal is therefore what is most likely if she cannot get her one through (which I still think she will).

    Getting a bit jittery about this Brexit stuff now. Starting to see it as real rather than just a terrific soap opera and betting bonanza.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,146

    This is why Jeremy Hunt looks like a Prime Minister in waiting.
    If Javid is getting criticised by the likes of Armando Iannucci, then he’s saying and doing all the right things to get elected.
    There's always a brief hope each time there's a new Tory leader that maybe this time they won't elect a nasty gammon-baiting amoral sociopath hell bent on sowing misery and division, but it's always dashed when you remember who gets to choose Tory leaders.
  • This is why Jeremy Hunt looks like a Prime Minister in waiting.
    If Javid is getting criticised by the likes of Armando Iannucci, then he’s saying and doing all the right things to get elected.
    He really isn’t.

    Before Christmas Javid managed to make Lord Adonis sound reasonable.

    I say that as someone who is on Javid as next Con leader at 60/1.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 18,962

    Karma’s great?

    Farmers will face a grim barrage of export tariffs, increased haulage costs, paperwork and looming labour shortages in the event of a no-deal Brexit, Michael Gove warned today.

    He painted a nightmare scenario for Britain’s food producers as he urged fellow MPs to back the prime minister’s Brexit deal.

    “It’s a grim but inescapable fact that in the event of a no-deal Brexit the effective tariffs of meat and sheep meat would be above 40 per cent. In some cases well above that,” Mr Gove told the Oxford Farming Conference.

    The National Farmers Union said that tariffs on beef exports could be up to 65 per cent and tariffs on lamb could be 46 per cent.

    Mr Gove, the cabinet’s leading Brexiteer, rejected suggestions that his warnings were a repeat of “Project Fear” — the term his fellow Brexiteers used to dismiss Remain campaigners’ warnings about what Brexit would entail.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/no-deal-brexit-will-be-nightmare-for-farmers-warns-gove-8cq77k5bb

    Food producers to have spoiled unsold stock while Britain starves due to Brexit ?

    If only there was a solution..
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 48,984
    @Richard_Nabavi If we're definitely not heading for a no deal Brexit, is now the time to lump into UK equities ?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 18,962
    edited January 3

    This is why Jeremy Hunt looks like a Prime Minister in waiting.
    If Javid is getting criticised by the likes of Armando Iannucci, then he’s saying and doing all the right things to get elected.
    There's always a brief hope each time there's a new Tory leader that maybe this time they won't elect a nasty gammon-baiting amoral sociopath hell bent on sowing misery and division, but it's always dashed when you remember who gets to choose Tory leaders.
    A Mrs Thatcher clone being elected next year would add 10% to twitters traffic as pearls would be furiously clutched all over London as she would be deemed a "nasty gammon-baiting amoral sociopath hell bent on sowing misery and division"

    She of course was the best PM since the war.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 18,614

    Karma’s great.

    Farmers will face a grim barrage of export tariffs, increased haulage costs, paperwork and looming labour shortages in the event of a no-deal Brexit, Michael Gove warned today.

    He painted a nightmare scenario for Britain’s food producers as he urged fellow MPs to back the prime minister’s Brexit deal.

    “It’s a grim but inescapable fact that in the event of a no-deal Brexit the effective tariffs of meat and sheep meat would be above 40 per cent. In some cases well above that,” Mr Gove told the Oxford Farming Conference.

    The National Farmers Union said that tariffs on beef exports could be up to 65 per cent and tariffs on lamb could be 46 per cent.

    Mr Gove, the cabinet’s leading Brexiteer, rejected suggestions that his warnings were a repeat of “Project Fear” — the term his fellow Brexiteers used to dismiss Remain campaigners’ warnings about what Brexit would entail.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/no-deal-brexit-will-be-nightmare-for-farmers-warns-gove-8cq77k5bb


    Karma 2

    Leo needs a bung


    https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/emergency-eu-aid-to-be-sought-for-brexit-fallout-37676966.html
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 21,849
    Dura_Ace said:

    His almost completely spherical head (almost Pilkington-esque) will play poorly in key midlands marginals.
    What you meant to say was his BROWN almost completely spherical head (almost Pilkington-esque) will play poorly in key midlands marginals.

    But the shape and colour of his head will be a lesser concern than his intent to see criminals* stopped from coming to our shores. His election chances are directly proportional to the decibel-level of the squealing he causes the liberal left.

    *key midland marginals view of economic migrants
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 11,136
    kinabalu said:

    Fpt:

    No Deal destroys the Tory party for a generation. Following a (brief) period of civil emergency, we will be forced to sign up to a series of disadvantageous agreements with the EU just to keep the proverbial lights on.

    It will be one of those oh shit moments like the collapse of Lehmans. I’d expect May to be ousted by her own Cabinet, perhaps after failed attempts to form a government of National Unity - May herself would not resign to avoid doing a Cameron.

    No, May will not opt for a “No Deal”.

    Although she is said to he totally against a referendum, seeing it as a betrayal of the vote, it does in fact offer a lifeline to her and her Party.

    If her deal wins, May is safe, and Remainerdom will be vanquished. Having failed twice to persuade the public, I’d expect all but the most militant Remainers to shut up.

    If Remain wins, I’d expect May to throw Eurosceptics a bone - perhaps even the promise of a third Referendum - but only after a Commission has examined various Options. Some of the fruitier Tories could jump to a moderately revitalised “Farage Party” - which will have used the referendum as a springboard to national relevance - but not enough to make a difference. Remain actually *benefits* the Tories as it helps them start the beginning of the detox they will need for post-Corbyn battles.

    Great! You have the bang opposite view to my brand new one.

    I reckon that No Brexit is what does most structural damage to the Tory party, for sure costs Mrs May her job, and that No Deal is therefore what is most likely if she cannot get her one through (which I still think she will).

    Getting a bit jittery about this Brexit stuff now. Starting to see it as real rather than just a terrific soap opera and betting bonanza.
    No Brexit would indeed damage the Tory party immensely; a second referendum would do significant damage too.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 20,380
    Sky showing HMS Mersey deploying in the channel and saying that migrant crossings have stopped over the last few days as a result of increased activity by the French navy around Calais and the ramping up by SAJ of at sea patrols and the realisation in Calais that the action taken has effectively cut off the opportunity to enter the UK across the channel

    Quite good reporting for Sajid Javid.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 671
    There has not, to my knowledge, ever been a totally hairless Prime Minister. Not a male one, anyway.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 18,962

    Karma’s great.

    Farmers will face a grim barrage of export tariffs, increased haulage costs, paperwork and looming labour shortages in the event of a no-deal Brexit, Michael Gove warned today.

    He painted a nightmare scenario for Britain’s food producers as he urged fellow MPs to back the prime minister’s Brexit deal.

    “It’s a grim but inescapable fact that in the event of a no-deal Brexit the effective tariffs of meat and sheep meat would be above 40 per cent. In some cases well above that,” Mr Gove told the Oxford Farming Conference.

    The National Farmers Union said that tariffs on beef exports could be up to 65 per cent and tariffs on lamb could be 46 per cent.

    Mr Gove, the cabinet’s leading Brexiteer, rejected suggestions that his warnings were a repeat of “Project Fear” — the term his fellow Brexiteers used to dismiss Remain campaigners’ warnings about what Brexit would entail.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/no-deal-brexit-will-be-nightmare-for-farmers-warns-gove-8cq77k5bb


    Karma 2

    Leo needs a bung


    https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/emergency-eu-aid-to-be-sought-for-brexit-fallout-37676966.html
    Telegraph is even more graphic

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/03/ireland-wants-hundreds-millions-eu-aid-mitigate-damage-no-deal/

    "Dublin has told European Commission officials it will apply for the cash to mitigate the impact of no deal on its beef, dairy and fishing sectors, the Irish Independent reported on Thursday.

    “You’re looking at hundreds of millions here. Between the beef industry and the fishing industry we’re talking mega-money,” said Michael Creed, the agriculture minister."

  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 868
    I am not sure whether this research project has been linked here before

    https://esrcpartymembersproject.org/2019/01/02/love-corbyn-hate-brexit/

    This is a project looking at the views of party members of the big 6 parties. The most recent survey is on the Labour Party members.

    There is also an article in the new statesman which looks at the ratings of possible successors to Jeremy Corbyn based on the same survey data.

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2019/01/jeremy-corbyn-s-successor-may-be-more-establishment-you-expect
  • Karma’s great.

    Farmers will face a grim barrage of export tariffs, increased haulage costs, paperwork and looming labour shortages in the event of a no-deal Brexit, Michael Gove warned today.

    He painted a nightmare scenario for Britain’s food producers as he urged fellow MPs to back the prime minister’s Brexit deal.

    “It’s a grim but inescapable fact that in the event of a no-deal Brexit the effective tariffs of meat and sheep meat would be above 40 per cent. In some cases well above that,” Mr Gove told the Oxford Farming Conference.

    The National Farmers Union said that tariffs on beef exports could be up to 65 per cent and tariffs on lamb could be 46 per cent.

    Mr Gove, the cabinet’s leading Brexiteer, rejected suggestions that his warnings were a repeat of “Project Fear” — the term his fellow Brexiteers used to dismiss Remain campaigners’ warnings about what Brexit would entail.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/no-deal-brexit-will-be-nightmare-for-farmers-warns-gove-8cq77k5bb


    Karma 2

    Leo needs a bung


    https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/emergency-eu-aid-to-be-sought-for-brexit-fallout-37676966.html
    The EU will back Leo.

    It'll be fine.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 671
    Mortimer said:

    No Brexit would indeed damage the Tory party immensely; a second referendum would do significant damage too.

    To me they are one and the same.

    EUref2 leads to Remain. Cannot see any other outcome.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 31,788
    The trouble with WOKE comedy

  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,146

    This is why Jeremy Hunt looks like a Prime Minister in waiting.
    If Javid is getting criticised by the likes of Armando Iannucci, then he’s saying and doing all the right things to get elected.
    He really isn’t.

    Before Christmas Javid managed to make Lord Adonis sound reasonable.

    I say that as someone who is on Javid as next Con leader at 60/1.
    The problem is, he hasn't made even the slightest attempt to hide the fact that his current round of gammon-bothering serves no purpose except to help him win the leadership election. It brings the office into disrepute, and all seems a bit needy and unseemly. Nobody likes the stench of desperation, Saj.

    Also, as we've seen, he's painted a cross on his back now by declaring himself the front runner, so expect lots more "sources closes to cabinet minister" stories about what a prick he is in the next few days.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 20,380
    Mortimer said:

    kinabalu said:

    Fpt:

    No Deal destroys the Tory party for a generation. Following a (brief) period of civil emergency, we will be forced to sign up to a series of disadvantageous agreements with the EU just to keep the proverbial lights on.

    It will be one of those oh shit moments like the collapse of Lehmans. I’d expect May to be ousted by her own Cabinet, perhaps after failed attempts to form a government of National Unity - May herself would not resign to avoid doing a Cameron.

    No, May will not opt for a “No Deal”.

    Although she is said to he totally against a referendum, seeing it as a betrayal of the vote, it does in fact offer a lifeline to her and her Party.

    If her deal wins, May is safe, and Remainerdom will be vanquished. Having failed twice to persuade the public, I’d expect all but the most militant Remainers to shut up.

    If Remain wins, I’d expect May to throw Eurosceptics a bone - perhaps even the promise of a third Referendum - but only after a Commission has examined various Options. Some of the fruitier Tories could jump to a moderately revitalised “Farage Party” - which will have used the referendum as a springboard to national relevance - but not enough to make a difference. Remain actually *benefits* the Tories as it helps them start the beginning of the detox they will need for post-Corbyn battles.

    Great! You have the bang opposite view to my brand new one.

    I reckon that No Brexit is what does most structural damage to the Tory party, for sure costs Mrs May her job, and that No Deal is therefore what is most likely if she cannot get her one through (which I still think she will).

    Getting a bit jittery about this Brexit stuff now. Starting to see it as real rather than just a terrific soap opera and betting bonanza.
    No Brexit would indeed damage the Tory party immensely; a second referendum would do significant damage too.
    As I have said before it depends how either of these events happen and the role of TM in facilitating them or not. Brexit has the potential to decimate both major parties or none.

    We only need to see how the next three weeks pan out to have a good idea of the end point
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 20,716
    edited January 3
    Pulpstar said:

    @Richard_Nabavi If we're definitely not heading for a no deal Brexit, is now the time to lump into UK equities ?

    It might be (either now or quite soon) if we were definitely not heading for a no-deal Brexit, but I don't think we can be that definite. It's an unusual situation where the prospect is a binary switch where either the UK domestically-focused stock markets and sterling crash, or alternatively both rise if a deal is done or a referendum looks possible. Overlaid on that is the general international uncertainty.

    I have tentatively bought a bit of FTSE100 (an index I usually ignore because it is so arbitrary and focused on a small number of stocks in particular sectors), on the basis that it's cheap compared with other markets, has been over-sold because investors are indiscriminately avoiding the UK market, but is actually not really a UK market but an international one protected to some extent by the exchange rate if no-deal happens. But I don't have a lot of confidence either way, and of course there's always the Corbyn/McDonnell risk. Maximum diversification seems called for including some cash.

    This not investment advice, DYOR, you might lose your shirt etc etc.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 35,302

    Karma’s great.

    Farmers will face a grim barrage of export tariffs, increased haulage costs, paperwork and looming labour shortages in the event of a no-deal Brexit, Michael Gove warned today.

    He painted a nightmare scenario for Britain’s food producers as he urged fellow MPs to back the prime minister’s Brexit deal.

    “It’s a grim but inescapable fact that in the event of a no-deal Brexit the effective tariffs of meat and sheep meat would be above 40 per cent. In some cases well above that,” Mr Gove told the Oxford Farming Conference.

    The National Farmers Union said that tariffs on beef exports could be up to 65 per cent and tariffs on lamb could be 46 per cent.

    Mr Gove, the cabinet’s leading Brexiteer, rejected suggestions that his warnings were a repeat of “Project Fear” — the term his fellow Brexiteers used to dismiss Remain campaigners’ warnings about what Brexit would entail.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/no-deal-brexit-will-be-nightmare-for-farmers-warns-gove-8cq77k5bb


    Karma 2

    Leo needs a bung


    https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/emergency-eu-aid-to-be-sought-for-brexit-fallout-37676966.html
    The EU will back Leo.

    It'll be fine.
    Where are they going to get the money from? :p
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,146
    RobD said:

    Karma’s great.

    Farmers will face a grim barrage of export tariffs, increased haulage costs, paperwork and looming labour shortages in the event of a no-deal Brexit, Michael Gove warned today.

    He painted a nightmare scenario for Britain’s food producers as he urged fellow MPs to back the prime minister’s Brexit deal.

    “It’s a grim but inescapable fact that in the event of a no-deal Brexit the effective tariffs of meat and sheep meat would be above 40 per cent. In some cases well above that,” Mr Gove told the Oxford Farming Conference.

    The National Farmers Union said that tariffs on beef exports could be up to 65 per cent and tariffs on lamb could be 46 per cent.

    Mr Gove, the cabinet’s leading Brexiteer, rejected suggestions that his warnings were a repeat of “Project Fear” — the term his fellow Brexiteers used to dismiss Remain campaigners’ warnings about what Brexit would entail.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/no-deal-brexit-will-be-nightmare-for-farmers-warns-gove-8cq77k5bb


    Karma 2

    Leo needs a bung


    https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/emergency-eu-aid-to-be-sought-for-brexit-fallout-37676966.html
    The EU will back Leo.

    It'll be fine.
    Where are they going to get the money from? :p
    Mexico will pay.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,146

    The trouble with WOKE comedy

    I DO NOT COME HERE EXPECTING TO SEE PIE.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 20,380
    edited January 3
    TGOHF said:

    Karma’s great.

    Farmers will face a grim barrage of export tariffs, increased haulage costs, paperwork and looming labour shortages in the event of a no-deal Brexit, Michael Gove warned today.

    He painted a nightmare scenario for Britain’s food producers as he urged fellow MPs to back the prime minister’s Brexit deal.

    “It’s a grim but inescapable fact that in the event of a no-deal Brexit the effective tariffs of meat and sheep meat would be above 40 per cent. In some cases well above that,” Mr Gove told the Oxford Farming Conference.

    The National Farmers Union said that tariffs on beef exports could be up to 65 per cent and tariffs on lamb could be 46 per cent.

    Mr Gove, the cabinet’s leading Brexiteer, rejected suggestions that his warnings were a repeat of “Project Fear” — the term his fellow Brexiteers used to dismiss Remain campaigners’ warnings about what Brexit would entail.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/no-deal-brexit-will-be-nightmare-for-farmers-warns-gove-8cq77k5bb


    Karma 2

    Leo needs a bung


    https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/emergency-eu-aid-to-be-sought-for-brexit-fallout-37676966.html
    Telegraph is even more graphic

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/03/ireland-wants-hundreds-millions-eu-aid-mitigate-damage-no-deal/

    "Dublin has told European Commission officials it will apply for the cash to mitigate the impact of no deal on its beef, dairy and fishing sectors, the Irish Independent reported on Thursday.

    “You’re looking at hundreds of millions here. Between the beef industry and the fishing industry we’re talking mega-money,” said Michael Creed, the agriculture minister."

    It won't be only Ireland seeking millions or even billions on a no deal brexit, it will be many EU Countries suffering hugely
  • RobD said:

    Karma’s great.

    Farmers will face a grim barrage of export tariffs, increased haulage costs, paperwork and looming labour shortages in the event of a no-deal Brexit, Michael Gove warned today.

    He painted a nightmare scenario for Britain’s food producers as he urged fellow MPs to back the prime minister’s Brexit deal.

    “It’s a grim but inescapable fact that in the event of a no-deal Brexit the effective tariffs of meat and sheep meat would be above 40 per cent. In some cases well above that,” Mr Gove told the Oxford Farming Conference.

    The National Farmers Union said that tariffs on beef exports could be up to 65 per cent and tariffs on lamb could be 46 per cent.

    Mr Gove, the cabinet’s leading Brexiteer, rejected suggestions that his warnings were a repeat of “Project Fear” — the term his fellow Brexiteers used to dismiss Remain campaigners’ warnings about what Brexit would entail.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/no-deal-brexit-will-be-nightmare-for-farmers-warns-gove-8cq77k5bb


    Karma 2

    Leo needs a bung


    https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/emergency-eu-aid-to-be-sought-for-brexit-fallout-37676966.html
    The EU will back Leo.

    It'll be fine.
    Where are they going to get the money from? :p
    From the EU, as pointed out the £39 billion isn't up front, and let us play a game, how much as a percentage of the EU GDP £39 billion is.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 31,788

    The trouble with WOKE comedy

    I DO NOT COME HERE EXPECTING TO SEE PIE.
    You aren't forced to click on it. It is actually one of his better ones.
  • eekeek Posts: 2,588

    This is why Jeremy Hunt looks like a Prime Minister in waiting.
    If Javid is getting criticised by the likes of Armando Iannucci, then he’s saying and doing all the right things to get elected.
    He really isn’t.

    Before Christmas Javid managed to make Lord Adonis sound reasonable.

    I say that as someone who is on Javid as next Con leader at 60/1.
    The problem is, he hasn't made even the slightest attempt to hide the fact that his current round of gammon-bothering serves no purpose except to help him win the leadership election. It brings the office into disrepute, and all seems a bit needy and unseemly. Nobody likes the stench of desperation, Saj.

    Also, as we've seen, he's painted a cross on his back now by declaring himself the front runner, so expect lots more "sources closes to cabinet minister" stories about what a prick he is in the next few days.
    Ones like this one in the Sun from this morning https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8106523/sajid-javid-power-gone-to-his-head/ ?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 18,614

    Karma’s great.

    Farmers will face a grim barrage of export tariffs, increased haulage costs, paperwork and looming labour shortages in the event of a no-deal Brexit, Michael Gove warned today.

    He painted a nightmare scenario for Britain’s food producers as he urged fellow MPs to back the prime minister’s Brexit deal.

    “It’s a grim but inescapable fact that in the event of a no-deal Brexit the effective tariffs of meat and sheep meat would be above 40 per cent. In some cases well above that,” Mr Gove told the Oxford Farming Conference.

    The National Farmers Union said that tariffs on beef exports could be up to 65 per cent and tariffs on lamb could be 46 per cent.

    Mr Gove, the cabinet’s leading Brexiteer, rejected suggestions that his warnings were a repeat of “Project Fear” — the term his fellow Brexiteers used to dismiss Remain campaigners’ warnings about what Brexit would entail.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/no-deal-brexit-will-be-nightmare-for-farmers-warns-gove-8cq77k5bb


    Karma 2

    Leo needs a bung


    https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/emergency-eu-aid-to-be-sought-for-brexit-fallout-37676966.html
    The EU will back Leo.

    It'll be fine.
    as long as hes paying off his german banks hes fine, one slip and hes taramasalata
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,146
    edited January 3
    eek said:

    This is why Jeremy Hunt looks like a Prime Minister in waiting.
    If Javid is getting criticised by the likes of Armando Iannucci, then he’s saying and doing all the right things to get elected.
    He really isn’t.

    Before Christmas Javid managed to make Lord Adonis sound reasonable.

    I say that as someone who is on Javid as next Con leader at 60/1.
    The problem is, he hasn't made even the slightest attempt to hide the fact that his current round of gammon-bothering serves no purpose except to help him win the leadership election. It brings the office into disrepute, and all seems a bit needy and unseemly. Nobody likes the stench of desperation, Saj.

    Also, as we've seen, he's painted a cross on his back now by declaring himself the front runner, so expect lots more "sources closes to cabinet minister" stories about what a prick he is in the next few days.
    Ones like this one in the Sun from this morning https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8106523/sajid-javid-power-gone-to-his-head/ ?
    Fuck me that photo.

    Somebody in his team needs to get him to start wearing hats or fascinators or sweatbands or tiaras or hijabs or SOMETHING to break up his eldritch facial symmetries.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 35,302

    RobD said:

    Karma’s great.

    Farmers will face a grim barrage of export tariffs, increased haulage costs, paperwork and looming labour shortages in the event of a no-deal Brexit, Michael Gove warned today.

    He painted a nightmare scenario for Britain’s food producers as he urged fellow MPs to back the prime minister’s Brexit deal.

    “It’s a grim but inescapable fact that in the event of a no-deal Brexit the effective tariffs of meat and sheep meat would be above 40 per cent. In some cases well above that,” Mr Gove told the Oxford Farming Conference.

    The National Farmers Union said that tariffs on beef exports could be up to 65 per cent and tariffs on lamb could be 46 per cent.

    Mr Gove, the cabinet’s leading Brexiteer, rejected suggestions that his warnings were a repeat of “Project Fear” — the term his fellow Brexiteers used to dismiss Remain campaigners’ warnings about what Brexit would entail.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/no-deal-brexit-will-be-nightmare-for-farmers-warns-gove-8cq77k5bb


    Karma 2

    Leo needs a bung


    https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/emergency-eu-aid-to-be-sought-for-brexit-fallout-37676966.html
    The EU will back Leo.

    It'll be fine.
    Where are they going to get the money from? :p
    From the EU, as pointed out the £39 billion isn't up front, and let us play a game, how much as a percentage of the EU GDP £39 billion is.
    What has GDP got to do with it? The EU’s budget is tiny in comparison.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 18,962

    This is why Jeremy Hunt looks like a Prime Minister in waiting.
    If Javid is getting criticised by the likes of Armando Iannucci, then he’s saying and doing all the right things to get elected.
    He really isn’t.

    Before Christmas Javid managed to make Lord Adonis sound reasonable.

    I say that as someone who is on Javid as next Con leader at 60/1.
    The problem is, he hasn't made even the slightest attempt to hide the fact that his current round of gammon-bothering serves no purpose except to help him win the leadership election..
    But why ? Is it because he is suggesting something ......... .*sssshhhh !* ...... popular with voters ?

    Forshame him.
  • Both Trump and Brexit related.

    This is what my Brexit supporting friends worry about, Brexit is going to happen whilst the economy stalls.

    It also shows how important Apple are.

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/jan/03/apple-shock-profit-warning-sends-european-shares-sliding
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 24,242

    This is why Jeremy Hunt looks like a Prime Minister in waiting.
    If Javid is getting criticised by the likes of Armando Iannucci, then he’s saying and doing all the right things to get elected.
    There's always a brief hope each time there's a new Tory leader that maybe this time they won't elect a nasty gammon-baiting amoral sociopath hell bent on sowing misery and division, but it's always dashed when you remember who gets to choose Tory leaders.
    Every Tory leader is accused of such things, going back to the year dot. It comes with the territory.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 21,849

    The trouble with WOKE comedy

    I DO NOT COME HERE EXPECTING TO SEE PIE.
    https://realfood.tesco.com/recipes/lemon-meringue-pie.html

    Serves 8 my arse......
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,146
    TGOHF said:

    This is why Jeremy Hunt looks like a Prime Minister in waiting.
    If Javid is getting criticised by the likes of Armando Iannucci, then he’s saying and doing all the right things to get elected.
    He really isn’t.

    Before Christmas Javid managed to make Lord Adonis sound reasonable.

    I say that as someone who is on Javid as next Con leader at 60/1.
    The problem is, he hasn't made even the slightest attempt to hide the fact that his current round of gammon-bothering serves no purpose except to help him win the leadership election..
    But why ? Is it because he is suggesting something ......... .*sssshhhh !* ...... popular with voters ?

    Forshame him.
    Well yes, actually. As one of the great offices of state, I'd expect the Home Secretary to behave with a little more dignity than this past week. The Home Office is not simply a plaything for winning Tory leadership contests.
  • eekeek Posts: 2,588
    kinabalu said:

    Mortimer said:

    No Brexit would indeed damage the Tory party immensely; a second referendum would do significant damage too.

    To me they are one and the same.

    EUref2 leads to Remain. Cannot see any other outcome.
    It depends on how they mitigate the anger of austerity Britain. Unless they are very careful I expect the result would be We told you Leave and we meant it...

    That's why David Herdson's questions from this morning look good. by asking do you want to leave you No Deal first you mitigate the risk of Leave wining a Leave/ Remain question and No Deal losting the second question....
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 18,614

    Both Trump and Brexit related.

    This is what my Brexit supporting friends worry about, Brexit is going to happen whilst the economy stalls.

    It also shows how important Apple are.

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/jan/03/apple-shock-profit-warning-sends-european-shares-sliding

    or the shares have been oversold

    at some point maximum growth is reached
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 15,088
    FPT:

    kinabalu said:

    The party would undoubtedly split in that scenario.

    But also a massive tory party problem if she reneges on Brexit.

    If we leave with No Deal, and it's crash & chaos, as you predict, the Deal could be resurrected and implemented. So No Deal could be a staging post, albeit messy, to the Deal that she wants. She could perhaps carry on as PM in those circumstances.

    And if, big surprise, it does not lead to crash & chaos, she's probably fine in that event too. She could perhaps carry on as PM.

    But No Brexit kills her. She's gone.

    That logic (if such it is) is why I am running a little more scared of No Deal, now, although I still expect the Deal to pass in time.
    I agree with the thrust of what you're saying, except for one important point: once we've left the EU, then I doubt that it would be possible under EU law to simply resurrect the withdrawal deal. That's because the withdrawal deal has been negotiated under Article 50, but once we've left we'd simply be a third-party country and would have to start again in any negotiations, probably with a requirement for full ratification by all member states.
    I don't think that's necessarily true.

    There's nothing in the text of Article 50 that intrinsically links subsection (2), which defines the process for agreeing the withdrawal arrangements and future relationship, with subsection (3), which is when the effect of the Treaties lapse.

    In other words, although the EU Treaties might no longer apply to the UK after 29 March 2019, that doesn't of itself nullify the process for agreeing the future relationship. While there's clearly a bit of a logical disconnect in agreeing a Withdrawal Agreement after withdrawal, I don't think it's necessarily decisive given that the Arrangement was always designed to be used after withdrawal.

    Of course, as with all agreements, both/all sides need to agree and it's always possible that the EU27 or the EP might not sign it off (or might demand amendments) if the UK has already left.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 18,962

    Both Trump and Brexit related.

    This is what my Brexit supporting friends worry about, Brexit is going to happen whilst the economy stalls.

    It also shows how important Apple are.

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/jan/03/apple-shock-profit-warning-sends-european-shares-sliding

    Double whammy for Ireland.

    Shame.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,146

    FPT:
    I don't think that's necessarily true.

    It isn't true. The EU can only conclude a withdrawal agreement, legally, as part of the Article 50 process. If the WA hasn't been concluded on the 29th March, and A50 isn't extended, the EU will have no further power to conclude the WA.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 18,962

    TGOHF said:

    This is why Jeremy Hunt looks like a Prime Minister in waiting.
    If Javid is getting criticised by the likes of Armando Iannucci, then he’s saying and doing all the right things to get elected.
    He really isn’t.

    Before Christmas Javid managed to make Lord Adonis sound reasonable.

    I say that as someone who is on Javid as next Con leader at 60/1.
    The problem is, he hasn't made even the slightest attempt to hide the fact that his current round of gammon-bothering serves no purpose except to help him win the leadership election..
    But why ? Is it because he is suggesting something ......... .*sssshhhh !* ...... popular with voters ?

    Forshame him.
    Well yes, actually. As one of the great offices of state, I'd expect the Home Secretary to behave with a little more dignity than this past week. The Home Office is not simply a plaything for winning Tory leadership contests.
    "dignity" ?

    You mean sticking to the twitterati agreed PC line ?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 23,704

    Karma’s great.

    Farmers will face a grim barrage of export tariffs, increased haulage costs, paperwork and looming labour shortages in the event of a no-deal Brexit, Michael Gove warned today.

    He painted a nightmare scenario for Britain’s food producers as he urged fellow MPs to back the prime minister’s Brexit deal.

    “It’s a grim but inescapable fact that in the event of a no-deal Brexit the effective tariffs of meat and sheep meat would be above 40 per cent. In some cases well above that,” Mr Gove told the Oxford Farming Conference.

    The National Farmers Union said that tariffs on beef exports could be up to 65 per cent and tariffs on lamb could be 46 per cent.

    Mr Gove, the cabinet’s leading Brexiteer, rejected suggestions that his warnings were a repeat of “Project Fear” — the term his fellow Brexiteers used to dismiss Remain campaigners’ warnings about what Brexit would entail.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/no-deal-brexit-will-be-nightmare-for-farmers-warns-gove-8cq77k5bb


    Karma 2

    Leo needs a bung


    https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/emergency-eu-aid-to-be-sought-for-brexit-fallout-37676966.html
    The EU will back Leo.

    It'll be fine.
    Of course, going by previous efforts, the EU is unlikely to get any money to actual farmers until long after they are bankrupt, but hey, them's the breaks.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,146
    RobD said:
    I thought the UK was broadly in favour of trying to end tax havens and offshore tax avoidance?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 20,716

    RobD said:
    I thought the UK was broadly in favour of trying to end tax havens and offshore tax avoidance?
    Well, except for the City, natch.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 15,088
    It's simple and effective. Classic Trump campaigning. Whether it's a strong enough message to last two years is another matter. He's taking her seriously though.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 24,242

    RobD said:
    I thought the UK was broadly in favour of trying to end tax havens and offshore tax avoidance?
    Not that I know of.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 35,302

    RobD said:
    I thought the UK was broadly in favour of trying to end tax havens and offshore tax avoidance?
    I think HMG is in favour of an independent corporation tax policy, for example.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 2,654

    Dura_Ace said:

    His almost completely spherical head (almost Pilkington-esque) will play poorly in key midlands marginals.
    What you meant to say was his BROWN almost completely spherical head (almost Pilkington-esque) will play poorly in key midlands marginals.

    But the shape and colour of his head will be a lesser concern than his intent to see criminals* stopped from coming to our shores. His election chances are directly proportional to the decibel-level of the squealing he causes the liberal left.

    *key midland marginals view of economic migrants
    How is he stopping them? Once you put ships in the channel you're encouraging them as, after you fish them out of the oggin, you can't do anything with them other than bring them to the UK.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 35,302

    RobD said:
    I thought the UK was broadly in favour of trying to end tax havens and offshore tax avoidance?
    Well, except for the City, natch.
    We’re in favour of ending other country’s tax havens.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,146
    edited January 3
    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    This is why Jeremy Hunt looks like a Prime Minister in waiting.
    If Javid is getting criticised by the likes of Armando Iannucci, then he’s saying and doing all the right things to get elected.
    He really isn’t.

    Before Christmas Javid managed to make Lord Adonis sound reasonable.

    I say that as someone who is on Javid as next Con leader at 60/1.
    The problem is, he hasn't made even the slightest attempt to hide the fact that his current round of gammon-bothering serves no purpose except to help him win the leadership election..
    But why ? Is it because he is suggesting something ......... .*sssshhhh !* ...... popular with voters ?

    Forshame him.
    Well yes, actually. As one of the great offices of state, I'd expect the Home Secretary to behave with a little more dignity than this past week. The Home Office is not simply a plaything for winning Tory leadership contests.
    "dignity" ?

    You mean sticking to the twitterati agreed PC line ?
    No, I mean just not acting like an utter berk. I think it's how desperate Sajid wants to be noticed. Desperation is never a good look, and his colleagues have definitely noticed.

    Sajid may have peaked too early. This leadership election is a marathon not a sprint, and he just shot his wad trying to be the BIG MAN being nasty to six women in a dinghy.
  • Both Trump and Brexit related.

    This is what my Brexit supporting friends worry about, Brexit is going to happen whilst the economy stalls.

    It also shows how important Apple are.

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/jan/03/apple-shock-profit-warning-sends-european-shares-sliding

    or the shares have been oversold

    at some point maximum growth is reached
    Apple products are worth it at triple the price.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 35,302

    Both Trump and Brexit related.

    This is what my Brexit supporting friends worry about, Brexit is going to happen whilst the economy stalls.

    It also shows how important Apple are.

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/jan/03/apple-shock-profit-warning-sends-european-shares-sliding

    or the shares have been oversold

    at some point maximum growth is reached
    Apple products are worth it at triple the price.
    $3000 for a phone? :p
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,146

    RobD said:
    I thought the UK was broadly in favour of trying to end tax havens and offshore tax avoidance?
    Well, except for the City, natch.
    Well OBVIOUSLY. :)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 35,302

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    This is why Jeremy Hunt looks like a Prime Minister in waiting.
    If Javid is getting criticised by the likes of Armando Iannucci, then he’s saying and doing all the right things to get elected.
    He really isn’t.

    Before Christmas Javid managed to make Lord Adonis sound reasonable.

    I say that as someone who is on Javid as next Con leader at 60/1.
    The problem is, he hasn't made even the slightest attempt to hide the fact that his current round of gammon-bothering serves no purpose except to help him win the leadership election..
    But why ? Is it because he is suggesting something ......... .*sssshhhh !* ...... popular with voters ?

    Forshame him.
    Well yes, actually. As one of the great offices of state, I'd expect the Home Secretary to behave with a little more dignity than this past week. The Home Office is not simply a plaything for winning Tory leadership contests.
    "dignity" ?

    You mean sticking to the twitterati agreed PC line ?
    No, I mean just not acting like an utter berk. I think it's how desperate Sajid wants to be noticed. Desperation is never a good look, and his colleagues have definitely noticed.

    Sajid may have peaked too early. This leadership election is a marathon not a sprint, and he just shot his wad trying to be the BIG MAN being nasty to six women in a dinghy.
    Aren’t the vast majority of them young men? The most needy are left behind.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 15,088
    kinabalu said:

    Mortimer said:

    No Brexit would indeed damage the Tory party immensely; a second referendum would do significant damage too.

    To me they are one and the same.

    EUref2 leads to Remain. Cannot see any other outcome.
    On EUref1 Day, Remain traded at about 94%. That was as the country actually *voted* to leave. If you can't see any other outcome, you need to look harder.

    Depending on how the referendum is structured, it's entirely plausible to produce wins for Deal and No Deal as well.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 18,962

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    This is why Jeremy Hunt looks like a Prime Minister in waiting.
    If Javid is getting criticised by the likes of Armando Iannucci, then he’s saying and doing all the right things to get elected.
    He really isn’t.

    Before Christmas Javid managed to make Lord Adonis sound reasonable.

    I say that as someone who is on Javid as next Con leader at 60/1.
    The problem is, he hasn't made even the slightest attempt to hide the fact that his current round of gammon-bothering serves no purpose except to help him win the leadership election..
    But why ? Is it because he is suggesting something ......... .*sssshhhh !* ...... popular with voters ?

    Forshame him.
    Well yes, actually. As one of the great offices of state, I'd expect the Home Secretary to behave with a little more dignity than this past week. The Home Office is not simply a plaything for winning Tory leadership contests.
    "dignity" ?

    You mean sticking to the twitterati agreed PC line ?
    No, I mean just not acting like an utter berk. I think it's how desperate Sajid wants to be noticed. Desperation is never a good look, and his colleagues have definitely noticed.

    Sajid may have peaked too early. This leadership election is a marathon not a sprint, and he just shot his wad trying to be the BIG MAN being nasty to six women in a dinghy.
    One man's berk is another man's President Trump.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,146
    TGOHF said:


    One man's berk is another man's President Trump.

    I mean, sure, if Trump is your role model, you do you, I guess.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 23,704
    Hysteria about a no deal Brexit seems to have stepped up another notch today from what was already quite a fantastical level. My guess is that we would barely even notice although this mania does risk some self fulfilling aspects.

    If this makes some of our MPs back May's deal, however reluctantly, this would be a good thing but there is little evidence of that to date. It will be very interesting to see what the mood is when the MPs get back to the bear pit.

    BTW can some of those members of the electorate who thought they understood Labour's position on Brexit well enough to have a view on it please drop Corbyn a wee explanatory note. Keep it short and avoid long words as much as possible, natch.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 671
    eek said:

    It depends on how they mitigate the anger of austerity Britain. Unless they are very careful I expect the result would be We told you Leave and we meant it...

    That's why David Herdson's questions from this morning look good. by asking do you want to leave with No Deal first you mitigate the risk of Leave wining a Leave/ Remain question and No Deal losing the second question....

    Not sure I quite understand that? Could you clarify?

    IMO the only referendum that in practice will be approved is the binary, Remain vs The Deal.

    Liverpool vs Accrington Stanley.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 21,849

    TGOHF said:

    This is why Jeremy Hunt looks like a Prime Minister in waiting.
    If Javid is getting criticised by the likes of Armando Iannucci, then he’s saying and doing all the right things to get elected.
    He really isn’t.

    Before Christmas Javid managed to make Lord Adonis sound reasonable.

    I say that as someone who is on Javid as next Con leader at 60/1.
    The problem is, he hasn't made even the slightest attempt to hide the fact that his current round of gammon-bothering serves no purpose except to help him win the leadership election..
    But why ? Is it because he is suggesting something ......... .*sssshhhh !* ...... popular with voters ?

    Forshame him.
    Well yes, actually. As one of the great offices of state, I'd expect the Home Secretary to behave with a little more dignity than this past week. The Home Office is not simply a plaything for winning Tory leadership contests.
    Like the dignity Home Secretary Theresa May showed to the Windrush generation?

    Didn't stop her getting - and keeping - the top job.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 35,302

    TGOHF said:

    This is why Jeremy Hunt looks like a Prime Minister in waiting.
    If Javid is getting criticised by the likes of Armando Iannucci, then he’s saying and doing all the right things to get elected.
    He really isn’t.

    Before Christmas Javid managed to make Lord Adonis sound reasonable.

    I say that as someone who is on Javid as next Con leader at 60/1.
    The problem is, he hasn't made even the slightest attempt to hide the fact that his current round of gammon-bothering serves no purpose except to help him win the leadership election..
    But why ? Is it because he is suggesting something ......... .*sssshhhh !* ...... popular with voters ?

    Forshame him.
    Well yes, actually. As one of the great offices of state, I'd expect the Home Secretary to behave with a little more dignity than this past week. The Home Office is not simply a plaything for winning Tory leadership contests.
    Like the dignity Home Secretary Theresa May showed to the Windrush generation?

    Didn't stop her getting - and keeping - the top job.
    Remind me when that debacle started?
  • DavidL said:

    Hysteria about a no deal Brexit seems to have stepped up another notch today from what was already quite a fantastical level. My guess is that we would barely even notice although this mania does risk some self fulfilling aspects.

    If this makes some of our MPs back May's deal, however reluctantly, this would be a good thing but there is little evidence of that to date. It will be very interesting to see what the mood is when the MPs get back to the bear pit.

    BTW can some of those members of the electorate who thought they understood Labour's position on Brexit well enough to have a view on it please drop Corbyn a wee explanatory note. Keep it short and avoid long words as much as possible, natch.

    Gove's really worried about No Deal.
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