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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Sanders drops to 6% chance in the WH2020 nominee betting follo

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  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    DavidL said:

    Hysteria about a no deal Brexit seems to have stepped up another notch today from what was already quite a fantastical level. My guess is that we would barely even notice although this mania does risk some self fulfilling aspects.

    If this makes some of our MPs back May's deal, however reluctantly, this would be a good thing but there is little evidence of that to date. It will be very interesting to see what the mood is when the MPs get back to the bear pit.

    BTW can some of those members of the electorate who thought they understood Labour's position on Brexit well enough to have a view on it please drop Corbyn a wee explanatory note. Keep it short and avoid long words as much as possible, natch.

    There will be a good deal of disappointment if the worst predictions of No Deal do not materialise.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    RobD said:


    Aren’t the vast majority of them young men? The most needy are left behind.

    Human traffickers usually only traffic women who can be sold into sex slavery.

    I mean, if Sajid hadn't decided to act like such a berk about all this, the statesmanlike response would have been to focus on dealing with human trafficking.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    RobD said:

    Both Trump and Brexit related.

    This is what my Brexit supporting friends worry about, Brexit is going to happen whilst the economy stalls.

    It also shows how important Apple are.

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/jan/03/apple-shock-profit-warning-sends-european-shares-sliding

    or the shares have been oversold

    at some point maximum growth is reached
    Apple products are worth it at triple the price.
    $3000 for a phone? :p
    £750 for trainers?
  • Both Trump and Brexit related.

    This is what my Brexit supporting friends worry about, Brexit is going to happen whilst the economy stalls.

    It also shows how important Apple are.

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/jan/03/apple-shock-profit-warning-sends-european-shares-sliding

    Qualcomm recently got two big injunction decisions against Apple in both China and Germany. Surprised that has not been mentioned much in all this.

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    Both Trump and Brexit related.

    This is what my Brexit supporting friends worry about, Brexit is going to happen whilst the economy stalls.

    It also shows how important Apple are.

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/jan/03/apple-shock-profit-warning-sends-european-shares-sliding

    or the shares have been oversold

    at some point maximum growth is reached
    Apple products are worth it at triple the price.
    I doubt it

    its the old thing of market growth, at some point you have sold one to everyone and after that its replacement or you need some innovation. So far Apple are slowing off on innovation
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    RobD said:

    TGOHF said:

    This is why Jeremy Hunt looks like a Prime Minister in waiting.
    If Javid is getting criticised by the likes of Armando Iannucci, then he’s saying and doing all the right things to get elected.
    He really isn’t.

    Before Christmas Javid managed to make Lord Adonis sound reasonable.

    I say that as someone who is on Javid as next Con leader at 60/1.
    The problem is, he hasn't made even the slightest attempt to hide the fact that his current round of gammon-bothering serves no purpose except to help him win the leadership election..
    But why ? Is it because he is suggesting something ......... .*sssshhhh !* ...... popular with voters ?

    Forshame him.
    Well yes, actually. As one of the great offices of state, I'd expect the Home Secretary to behave with a little more dignity than this past week. The Home Office is not simply a plaything for winning Tory leadership contests.
    Like the dignity Home Secretary Theresa May showed to the Windrush generation?

    Didn't stop her getting - and keeping - the top job.
    Remind me when that debacle started?
    More an issue of when it should have ended.....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    Greetings Mr Eagles, your book posted this earlier:

    This is why Jeremy Hunt looks like a Prime Minister in waiting.
    A man with no principles or beliefs beyond arrogance and his own advancement. A worthy successor to the two men who created today's Tory Party, David Cameron and Boris Johnson.
    A successful businessman, magnificent Secretary of State for Health where he obtained record funding for the NHS, and has gravitas to be PM, as evidenced by his stint as Foreign Secretary.
    I hope that you have now been released from whatever dark dungeon it held you in.
  • Karma’s great.

    Farmers will face a grim barrage of export tariffs, increased haulage costs, paperwork and looming labour shortages in the event of a no-deal Brexit, Michael Gove warned today.

    He painted a nightmare scenario for Britain’s food producers as he urged fellow MPs to back the prime minister’s Brexit deal.

    “It’s a grim but inescapable fact that in the event of a no-deal Brexit the effective tariffs of meat and sheep meat would be above 40 per cent. In some cases well above that,” Mr Gove told the Oxford Farming Conference.

    The National Farmers Union said that tariffs on beef exports could be up to 65 per cent and tariffs on lamb could be 46 per cent.

    Mr Gove, the cabinet’s leading Brexiteer, rejected suggestions that his warnings were a repeat of “Project Fear” — the term his fellow Brexiteers used to dismiss Remain campaigners’ warnings about what Brexit would entail.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/no-deal-brexit-will-be-nightmare-for-farmers-warns-gove-8cq77k5bb


    Karma 2

    Leo needs a bung


    https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/emergency-eu-aid-to-be-sought-for-brexit-fallout-37676966.html

    This was always going to be the case, wasn't it? The Irish know they are not going to be left high and dry. It looks like a benefit from where I'm sitting. What am I missing?

  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited January 2019


    Qualcomm recently got two big injunction decisions against Apple in both China and Germany. Surprised that has not been mentioned much in all this.

    The deteriorating trade environment between China and the US is the direct fault of one elderly obese senile wotsit with a toad-shaped penis.

    It does seem that all of the Trump and Brexit chickens are coming home to roost in 2019.

    image
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    In fairness to Donald Trump, that is a zinger. It's almost as good as the Democratic sticker riposte to 'Dole in 96,' which as everyone doubtless remembers was 'Dole IS 96.'
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    DavidL said:

    Hysteria about a no deal Brexit seems to have stepped up another notch today from what was already quite a fantastical level. My guess is that we would barely even notice although this mania does risk some self fulfilling aspects.

    If this makes some of our MPs back May's deal, however reluctantly, this would be a good thing but there is little evidence of that to date. It will be very interesting to see what the mood is when the MPs get back to the bear pit.

    BTW can some of those members of the electorate who thought they understood Labour's position on Brexit well enough to have a view on it please drop Corbyn a wee explanatory note. Keep it short and avoid long words as much as possible, natch.

    Gove's really worried about No Deal.
    Yep - As I stated a month ago when I first discussed my meeting with DEFRA...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    Hysteria about a no deal Brexit seems to have stepped up another notch today from what was already quite a fantastical level. My guess is that we would barely even notice although this mania does risk some self fulfilling aspects.

    If this makes some of our MPs back May's deal, however reluctantly, this would be a good thing but there is little evidence of that to date. It will be very interesting to see what the mood is when the MPs get back to the bear pit.

    BTW can some of those members of the electorate who thought they understood Labour's position on Brexit well enough to have a view on it please drop Corbyn a wee explanatory note. Keep it short and avoid long words as much as possible, natch.

    There will be a good deal of disappointment if the worst predictions of No Deal do not materialise.
    I'm just wondering where we go from here. Pestilence (lack of medical supplies) and starvation are already on the field. War and DEATH to come. We better all start practising our cap locks.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    Karma’s great.

    Farmers will face a grim barrage of export tariffs, increased haulage costs, paperwork and looming labour shortages in the event of a no-deal Brexit, Michael Gove warned today.

    He painted a nightmare scenario for Britain’s food producers as he urged fellow MPs to back the prime minister’s Brexit deal.

    “It’s a grim but inescapable fact that in the event of a no-deal Brexit the effective tariffs of meat and sheep meat would be above 40 per cent. In some cases well above that,” Mr Gove told the Oxford Farming Conference.

    The National Farmers Union said that tariffs on beef exports could be up to 65 per cent and tariffs on lamb could be 46 per cent.

    Mr Gove, the cabinet’s leading Brexiteer, rejected suggestions that his warnings were a repeat of “Project Fear” — the term his fellow Brexiteers used to dismiss Remain campaigners’ warnings about what Brexit would entail.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/no-deal-brexit-will-be-nightmare-for-farmers-warns-gove-8cq77k5bb


    Karma 2

    Leo needs a bung


    https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/emergency-eu-aid-to-be-sought-for-brexit-fallout-37676966.html

    This was always going to be the case, wasn't it? The Irish know they are not going to be left high and dry. It looks like a benefit from where I'm sitting. What am I missing?

    Ive always assumed the Irish exoected a quid pro quo for doing the EUs dirty work. Varadkar has his cash but has damaged his country in the process.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,401

    I am not sure whether this research project has been linked here before

    https://esrcpartymembersproject.org/2019/01/02/love-corbyn-hate-brexit/

    This is a project looking at the views of party members of the big 6 parties. The most recent survey is on the Labour Party members.

    There is also an article in the new statesman which looks at the ratings of possible successors to Jeremy Corbyn based on the same survey data.

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2019/01/jeremy-corbyn-s-successor-may-be-more-establishment-you-expect

    Thanks for the links - so I am part of the plurality in seeing Starmer as the best option.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758

    DavidL said:

    Hysteria about a no deal Brexit seems to have stepped up another notch today from what was already quite a fantastical level. My guess is that we would barely even notice although this mania does risk some self fulfilling aspects.

    If this makes some of our MPs back May's deal, however reluctantly, this would be a good thing but there is little evidence of that to date. It will be very interesting to see what the mood is when the MPs get back to the bear pit.

    BTW can some of those members of the electorate who thought they understood Labour's position on Brexit well enough to have a view on it please drop Corbyn a wee explanatory note. Keep it short and avoid long words as much as possible, natch.

    Gove's really worried about No Deal.
    That's one hopeful sign.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401

    FPT:
    I don't think that's necessarily true.

    It isn't true. The EU can only conclude a withdrawal agreement, legally, as part of the Article 50 process. If the WA hasn't been concluded on the 29th March, and A50 isn't extended, the EU will have no further power to conclude the WA.
    Do you have an authority for that? There is nothing in Article 50 that says that an Agreement cannot be concluded after the departing state has left.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870
    Actual LOL moment at this one:

    https://twitter.com/ElectCalculus/status/1080798253577314304

    Labour: 24% of the vote, 5% of the seats.

    Can we interest you in a proportional voting system, guys?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    DavidL said:

    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    Hysteria about a no deal Brexit seems to have stepped up another notch today from what was already quite a fantastical level. My guess is that we would barely even notice although this mania does risk some self fulfilling aspects.

    If this makes some of our MPs back May's deal, however reluctantly, this would be a good thing but there is little evidence of that to date. It will be very interesting to see what the mood is when the MPs get back to the bear pit.

    BTW can some of those members of the electorate who thought they understood Labour's position on Brexit well enough to have a view on it please drop Corbyn a wee explanatory note. Keep it short and avoid long words as much as possible, natch.

    There will be a good deal of disappointment if the worst predictions of No Deal do not materialise.
    I'm just wondering where we go from here. Pestilence (lack of medical supplies) and starvation are already on the field. War and DEATH to come. We better all start practising our cap locks.
    Maybe it will be like living in Threads.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    edited January 2019
    kinabalu said:

    eek said:

    It depends on how they mitigate the anger of austerity Britain. Unless they are very careful I expect the result would be We told you Leave and we meant it...

    That's why David Herdson's questions from this morning look good. by asking do you want to leave with No Deal first you mitigate the risk of Leave wining a Leave/ Remain question and No Deal losing the second question....

    Not sure I quite understand that? Could you clarify?

    IMO the only referendum that in practice will be approved is the binary, Remain vs The Deal.

    Liverpool vs Accrington Stanley.
    David's suggested questions and order of questions were

    2-question format / 1. Do you favour the UK leaving without a Deal; 2. If No, Deal vs Remain.

    It has the advantage in that it puts all options on the table and removes the stupidest one first. I suspect it's almost how May will play things when she loses her first vote....
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    ydoethur said:

    Greetings Mr Eagles, your book posted this earlier:

    This is why Jeremy Hunt looks like a Prime Minister in waiting.
    A man with no principles or beliefs beyond arrogance and his own advancement. A worthy successor to the two men who created today's Tory Party, David Cameron and Boris Johnson.
    A successful businessman, magnificent Secretary of State for Health where he obtained record funding for the NHS, and has gravitas to be PM, as evidenced by his stint as Foreign Secretary.
    I hope that you have now been released from whatever dark dungeon it held you in.
    Probably not if it was a foreign one.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    FPT:

    kinabalu said:

    The party would undoubtedly split in that scenario.

    But also a massive tory party problem if she reneges on Brexit.

    If we leave with No Deal, and it's crash & chaos, as you predict, the Deal could be resurrected and implemented. So No Deal could be a staging post, albeit messy, to the Deal that she wants. She could perhaps carry on as PM in those circumstances.

    And if, big surprise, it does not lead to crash & chaos, she's probably fine in that event too. She could perhaps carry on as PM.

    But No Brexit kills her. She's gone.

    That logic (if such it is) is why I am running a little more scared of No Deal, now, although I still expect the Deal to pass in time.
    I agree with the thrust of what you're saying, except for one important point: once we've left the EU, then I doubt that it would be possible under EU law to simply resurrect the withdrawal deal. That's because the withdrawal deal has been negotiated under Article 50, but once we've left we'd simply be a third-party country and would have to start again in any negotiations, probably with a requirement for full ratification by all member states.
    I don't think that's necessarily true.

    There's nothing in the text of Article 50 that intrinsically links subsection (2), which defines the process for agreeing the withdrawal arrangements and future relationship, with subsection (3), which is when the effect of the Treaties lapse.

    In other words, although the EU Treaties might no longer apply to the UK after 29 March 2019, that doesn't of itself nullify the process for agreeing the future relationship. While there's clearly a bit of a logical disconnect in agreeing a Withdrawal Agreement after withdrawal, I don't think it's necessarily decisive given that the Arrangement was always designed to be used after withdrawal.

    Of course, as with all agreements, both/all sides need to agree and it's always possible that the EU27 or the EP might not sign it off (or might demand amendments) if the UK has already left.
    I see you have started keeping unicorns David.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    This is why Jeremy Hunt looks like a Prime Minister in waiting.
    The same Jeremy Hunt that gave Javid his full backing earlier today?!
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    MaxPB said:

    This is why Jeremy Hunt looks like a Prime Minister in waiting.
    The same Jeremy Hunt that gave Javid his full backing earlier today?!
    In the same way that a Club Chairman does as he dusts his contact book of available managers
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401
    kinabalu said:

    eek said:

    It depends on how they mitigate the anger of austerity Britain. Unless they are very careful I expect the result would be We told you Leave and we meant it...

    That's why David Herdson's questions from this morning look good. by asking do you want to leave with No Deal first you mitigate the risk of Leave wining a Leave/ Remain question and No Deal losing the second question....

    Not sure I quite understand that? Could you clarify?

    IMO the only referendum that in practice will be approved is the binary, Remain vs The Deal.

    Liverpool vs Accrington Stanley.
    No, No Deal would be on the ballot paper as well. Tory internal opposition would see to that.

    The format I suggested - and this is at the outer edge of what might be acceptable - would be to have two questions:

    1. No Deal - yes or no
    2. If 'No' to (1), then Remain or Deal

    That still structurally loads the paper against No Deal, to an extent that would cause a lot of ERG opposition but I think it could be containable. Leaving No Deal off altogether would be a step too far.
  • ydoethur said:

    Greetings Mr Eagles, your book posted this earlier:

    This is why Jeremy Hunt looks like a Prime Minister in waiting.
    A man with no principles or beliefs beyond arrogance and his own advancement. A worthy successor to the two men who created today's Tory Party, David Cameron and Boris Johnson.
    A successful businessman, magnificent Secretary of State for Health where he obtained record funding for the NHS, and has gravitas to be PM, as evidenced by his stint as Foreign Secretary.
    I hope that you have now been released from whatever dark dungeon it held you in.
    Look, if Hunt becomes next Tory Leader/PM I'll have enough money to hire a dominatrix for two hours a day for a month^*!.

    You can understand my excitement at Hunt becoming PM.


    ^As a good Muslim boy, I'd never hire a dominatrix

    *As a Yorkshireman, Ow Much would kick in, so I'd never hire one.

    !Why do men pay strange women to sexually frustrate them, they can get that free if they marry them.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    kinabalu said:

    eek said:

    It depends on how they mitigate the anger of austerity Britain. Unless they are very careful I expect the result would be We told you Leave and we meant it...

    That's why David Herdson's questions from this morning look good. by asking do you want to leave with No Deal first you mitigate the risk of Leave wining a Leave/ Remain question and No Deal losing the second question....

    Not sure I quite understand that? Could you clarify?

    IMO the only referendum that in practice will be approved is the binary, Remain vs The Deal.

    Liverpool vs Accrington Stanley.
    No, No Deal would be on the ballot paper as well. Tory internal opposition would see to that.

    The format I suggested - and this is at the outer edge of what might be acceptable - would be to have two questions:

    1. No Deal - yes or no
    2. If 'No' to (1), then Remain or Deal

    That still structurally loads the paper against No Deal, to an extent that would cause a lot of ERG opposition but I think it could be containable. Leaving No Deal off altogether would be a step too far.
    At any rate, I think you'd need a change of government, and I don't see that happening.
  • MaxPB said:

    This is why Jeremy Hunt looks like a Prime Minister in waiting.
    The same Jeremy Hunt that gave Javid his full backing earlier today?!
    To stab someone in the back you have to get behind them.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,547

    DavidL said:

    Hysteria about a no deal Brexit seems to have stepped up another notch today from what was already quite a fantastical level. My guess is that we would barely even notice although this mania does risk some self fulfilling aspects.

    If this makes some of our MPs back May's deal, however reluctantly, this would be a good thing but there is little evidence of that to date. It will be very interesting to see what the mood is when the MPs get back to the bear pit.

    BTW can some of those members of the electorate who thought they understood Labour's position on Brexit well enough to have a view on it please drop Corbyn a wee explanatory note. Keep it short and avoid long words as much as possible, natch.

    Gove's really worried about No Deal.
    I was told by someone who claimed detailed knowledge of this that all UK meat producers would have to apply for veterinary clearance before they could export to the EU after Brexit. And this would take a minimum of six months to process, during which time no meat could be exported. And more than 50% of British lamb is exported to the EU.....

    I do not know if this is true but if it is then no deal would bankrupt many farmers overnight.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    FPT:
    I don't think that's necessarily true.

    It isn't true. The EU can only conclude a withdrawal agreement, legally, as part of the Article 50 process. If the WA hasn't been concluded on the 29th March, and A50 isn't extended, the EU will have no further power to conclude the WA.
    Do you have an authority for that? There is nothing in Article 50 that says that an Agreement cannot be concluded after the departing state has left.
    I thought it was fairly obvious: A50 says that the treaties shall cease to apply to the UK on the 29th March, and it's the treaties that grant the EU authorisation to conclude a withdrawal agreement. Once it leaves, A50 ends, any authorisations the EU possessed are null and void.

    It would be ludicrous to claim otherwise: how could the terms of article 50 possibly apply to the either the EU or the UK once the UK leaves and the A50 period ends?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    ydoethur said:

    Greetings Mr Eagles, your book posted this earlier:

    This is why Jeremy Hunt looks like a Prime Minister in waiting.
    A man with no principles or beliefs beyond arrogance and his own advancement. A worthy successor to the two men who created today's Tory Party, David Cameron and Boris Johnson.
    A successful businessman, magnificent Secretary of State for Health where he obtained record funding for the NHS, and has gravitas to be PM, as evidenced by his stint as Foreign Secretary.
    I hope that you have now been released from whatever dark dungeon it held you in.
    Look, if Hunt becomes next Tory Leader/PM I'll have enough money to hire a dominatrix for two hours a day for a month^*!.

    You can understand my excitement at Hunt becoming PM.


    ^As a good Muslim boy, I'd never hire a dominatrix

    *As a Yorkshireman, Ow Much would kick in, so I'd never hire one.

    !Why do men pay strange women to sexually frustrate them, they can get that free if they marry them.
    long term marriage is more expensive
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    Hysteria about a no deal Brexit seems to have stepped up another notch today from what was already quite a fantastical level. My guess is that we would barely even notice although this mania does risk some self fulfilling aspects.

    If this makes some of our MPs back May's deal, however reluctantly, this would be a good thing but there is little evidence of that to date. It will be very interesting to see what the mood is when the MPs get back to the bear pit.

    BTW can some of those members of the electorate who thought they understood Labour's position on Brexit well enough to have a view on it please drop Corbyn a wee explanatory note. Keep it short and avoid long words as much as possible, natch.

    There will be a good deal of disappointment if the worst predictions of No Deal do not materialise.
    I'm still waiting for anyone other than @malcolmg to let me know whether they regard avoidable deaths and job losses (and if so at what level) as an acceptable price to pay for no-deal Brexit, if they should happen. I'm trying to understand the mindset and I'm not getting any help from my lab rats.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    Karma’s great.

    Farmers will face a grim barrage of export tariffs, increased haulage costs, paperwork and looming labour shortages in the event of a no-deal Brexit, Michael Gove warned today.

    He painted a nightmare scenario for Britain’s food producers as he urged fellow MPs to back the prime minister’s Brexit deal.

    “It’s a grim but inescapable fact that in the event of a no-deal Brexit the effective tariffs of meat and sheep meat would be above 40 per cent. In some cases well above that,” Mr Gove told the Oxford Farming Conference.

    The National Farmers Union said that tariffs on beef exports could be up to 65 per cent and tariffs on lamb could be 46 per cent.

    Mr Gove, the cabinet’s leading Brexiteer, rejected suggestions that his warnings were a repeat of “Project Fear” — the term his fellow Brexiteers used to dismiss Remain campaigners’ warnings about what Brexit would entail.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/no-deal-brexit-will-be-nightmare-for-farmers-warns-gove-8cq77k5bb


    Karma 2

    Leo needs a bung


    https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/emergency-eu-aid-to-be-sought-for-brexit-fallout-37676966.html

    This was always going to be the case, wasn't it? The Irish know they are not going to be left high and dry. It looks like a benefit from where I'm sitting. What am I missing?

    Every agricultural producer in the EU will want compensation and the losesof trade in food is so high in monetary terms that the compensation would be potentially over 10 billion.
    If the EU has lost our contribution then money is tight but the other factor is that when Maggie got the rebate it was based primarily on CAP payments. The rebate was paid for by other countries agreeing to pay more into the CAP they were NL, Swe, Ger and Austria. When we leave they have stated they will not pay extra because the British rebate has ended. The Jacques Delores institute has estimated that the funding shortfall will be north of 20billion Euros in the case of UK no deal.
    Leo can ask all he wants but there will be no spare funds and one article has already indicated the EU has their response in early with "put your corporate taxes up and pay for it yourselves."
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    edited January 2019

    kinabalu said:

    eek said:

    It depends on how they mitigate the anger of austerity Britain. Unless they are very careful I expect the result would be We told you Leave and we meant it...

    That's why David Herdson's questions from this morning look good. by asking do you want to leave with No Deal first you mitigate the risk of Leave wining a Leave/ Remain question and No Deal losing the second question....

    Not sure I quite understand that? Could you clarify?

    IMO the only referendum that in practice will be approved is the binary, Remain vs The Deal.

    Liverpool vs Accrington Stanley.
    No, No Deal would be on the ballot paper as well. Tory internal opposition would see to that.

    The format I suggested - and this is at the outer edge of what might be acceptable - would be to have two questions:

    1. No Deal - yes or no
    2. If 'No' to (1), then Remain or Deal

    That still structurally loads the paper against No Deal, to an extent that would cause a lot of ERG opposition but I think it could be containable. Leaving No Deal off altogether would be a step too far.
    As I stated above if May had a clue the first question is a vote she should force Parliament to make the minute after they vote down her deal... So every MP has personal responsibility for it....
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949

    DavidL said:

    Hysteria about a no deal Brexit seems to have stepped up another notch today from what was already quite a fantastical level. My guess is that we would barely even notice although this mania does risk some self fulfilling aspects.

    If this makes some of our MPs back May's deal, however reluctantly, this would be a good thing but there is little evidence of that to date. It will be very interesting to see what the mood is when the MPs get back to the bear pit.

    BTW can some of those members of the electorate who thought they understood Labour's position on Brexit well enough to have a view on it please drop Corbyn a wee explanatory note. Keep it short and avoid long words as much as possible, natch.

    Gove's really worried about No Deal.
    I was told by someone who claimed detailed knowledge of this that all UK meat producers would have to apply for veterinary clearance before they could export to the EU after Brexit. And this would take a minimum of six months to process, during which time no meat could be exported. And more than 50% of British lamb is exported to the EU.....

    I do not know if this is true but if it is then no deal would bankrupt many farmers overnight.
    If it is true then it's bad new for British farmers, but great news for British lamb eaters. Got to be a discount at the butcher with all that lamb unable to be exported.

    (Generally though, if many No Deal predictions are right, it will be really bad news for lots of us.)
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    Hysteria about a no deal Brexit seems to have stepped up another notch today from what was already quite a fantastical level. My guess is that we would barely even notice although this mania does risk some self fulfilling aspects.

    If this makes some of our MPs back May's deal, however reluctantly, this would be a good thing but there is little evidence of that to date. It will be very interesting to see what the mood is when the MPs get back to the bear pit.

    BTW can some of those members of the electorate who thought they understood Labour's position on Brexit well enough to have a view on it please drop Corbyn a wee explanatory note. Keep it short and avoid long words as much as possible, natch.

    There will be a good deal of disappointment if the worst predictions of No Deal do not materialise.
    I'm still waiting for anyone other than @malcolmg to let me know whether they regard avoidable deaths and job losses (and if so at what level) as an acceptable price to pay for no-deal Brexit, if they should happen. I'm trying to understand the mindset and I'm not getting any help from my lab rats.
    Anything better than the Black Death is acceptable.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    TGOHF said:

    nielh said:

    Could someone in the republican party do a Macron?

    Trump tried but his approval rating is on the way back up..
    Is that true?

    See: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    edited January 2019

    ydoethur said:

    Greetings Mr Eagles, your book posted this earlier:

    This is why Jeremy Hunt looks like a Prime Minister in waiting.
    A man with no principles or beliefs beyond arrogance and his own advancement. A worthy successor to the two men who created today's Tory Party, David Cameron and Boris Johnson.
    A successful businessman, magnificent Secretary of State for Health where he obtained record funding for the NHS, and has gravitas to be PM, as evidenced by his stint as Foreign Secretary.
    I hope that you have now been released from whatever dark dungeon it held you in.
    Look, if Hunt becomes next Tory Leader/PM I'll have enough money to hire a dominatrix for two hours a day for a month^*!.

    You can understand my excitement at Hunt becoming PM.


    ^As a good Muslim boy, I'd never hire a dominatrix

    *As a Yorkshireman, Ow Much would kick in, so I'd never hire one.

    !Why do men pay strange women to sexually frustrate them, they can get that free if they marry them.
    You're excited at the thought of hiring a dominatrix?

    TMI...

    For the rest:

    :joy::joy::joy::wink:
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    FPT:
    I don't think that's necessarily true.

    It isn't true. The EU can only conclude a withdrawal agreement, legally, as part of the Article 50 process. If the WA hasn't been concluded on the 29th March, and A50 isn't extended, the EU will have no further power to conclude the WA.
    Do you have an authority for that? There is nothing in Article 50 that says that an Agreement cannot be concluded after the departing state has left.
    I thought it was fairly obvious: A50 says that the treaties shall cease to apply to the UK on the 29th March, and it's the treaties that grant the EU authorisation to conclude a withdrawal agreement. Once it leaves, A50 ends, any authorisations the EU possessed are null and void.

    It would be ludicrous to claim otherwise: how could the terms of article 50 possibly apply to the either the EU or the UK once the UK leaves and the A50 period ends?
    +1
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758

    ydoethur said:

    Greetings Mr Eagles, your book posted this earlier:

    This is why Jeremy Hunt looks like a Prime Minister in waiting.
    A man with no principles or beliefs beyond arrogance and his own advancement. A worthy successor to the two men who created today's Tory Party, David Cameron and Boris Johnson.
    A successful businessman, magnificent Secretary of State for Health where he obtained record funding for the NHS, and has gravitas to be PM, as evidenced by his stint as Foreign Secretary.
    I hope that you have now been released from whatever dark dungeon it held you in.
    Look, if Hunt becomes next Tory Leader/PM I'll have enough money to hire a dominatrix for two hours a day for a month^*!.

    You can understand my excitement at Hunt becoming PM.


    ^As a good Muslim boy, I'd never hire a dominatrix

    *As a Yorkshireman, Ow Much would kick in, so I'd never hire one.

    !Why do men pay strange women to sexually frustrate them, they can get that free if they marry them.
    long term marriage is more expensive
    Marriage (noun)
    A device for extracting a man's wallet through his testicles.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    BREAKING: Downing Street briefing they still expect to lose the meaningful vote big

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1080864008616529920
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    This is why Jeremy Hunt looks like a Prime Minister in waiting.
    The same Jeremy Hunt that gave Javid his full backing earlier today?!
    In the same way that a Club Chairman does as he dusts his contact book of available managers
    I thought the phrase was 'The same way Michael Gove gives his full backing to a Tory leadership contender'?
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Greetings Mr Eagles, your book posted this earlier:

    This is why Jeremy Hunt looks like a Prime Minister in waiting.
    A man with no principles or beliefs beyond arrogance and his own advancement. A worthy successor to the two men who created today's Tory Party, David Cameron and Boris Johnson.
    A successful businessman, magnificent Secretary of State for Health where he obtained record funding for the NHS, and has gravitas to be PM, as evidenced by his stint as Foreign Secretary.
    I hope that you have now been released from whatever dark dungeon it held you in.
    Look, if Hunt becomes next Tory Leader/PM I'll have enough money to hire a dominatrix for two hours a day for a month^*!.

    You can understand my excitement at Hunt becoming PM.


    ^As a good Muslim boy, I'd never hire a dominatrix

    *As a Yorkshireman, Ow Much would kick in, so I'd never hire one.

    !Why do men pay strange women to sexually frustrate them, they can get that free if they marry them.
    You're excited at the thought of hiring a dominatrix?

    TMI...

    For the rest:

    :joy::joy::joy::wink:
    I once wrote a thread that talked about hiring 400 dominatrices concurrently.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/04/23/why-a-1997-style-landslide-or-even-a-1983-style-landslide-might-not-happen-but-maybe-a-2005-style-majority-of-66-will/
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    kinabalu said:

    eek said:

    It depends on how they mitigate the anger of austerity Britain. Unless they are very careful I expect the result would be We told you Leave and we meant it...

    That's why David Herdson's questions from this morning look good. by asking do you want to leave with No Deal first you mitigate the risk of Leave wining a Leave/ Remain question and No Deal losing the second question....

    Not sure I quite understand that? Could you clarify?

    IMO the only referendum that in practice will be approved is the binary, Remain vs The Deal.

    Liverpool vs Accrington Stanley.
    No, No Deal would be on the ballot paper as well. Tory internal opposition would see to that.

    The format I suggested - and this is at the outer edge of what might be acceptable - would be to have two questions:

    1. No Deal - yes or no
    2. If 'No' to (1), then Remain or Deal

    That still structurally loads the paper against No Deal, to an extent that would cause a lot of ERG opposition but I think it could be containable. Leaving No Deal off altogether would be a step too far.
    The Tory internal opposition do not have a majority. There is a majority for ruling out no deal. (Labour's 2017 manifesto explicitly committed them to ruling out no deal, and a significant number of Tories are on the record saying they would take drastic action to prevent it.)

    No Deal will not be put on any public ballot.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Christ, Starmer feels like he'd be a complete car-crash as leader to me.

    Thornberry still feels like the least-worst option to me, but I'm not at all convinced she'd be better for Labour's electoral prospects than Corbyn. Clive Lewis would make sense, were he not so obsessed with going down the #FBPE rabbit-hole.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    Pulpstar said:

    @Richard_Nabavi If we're definitely not heading for a no deal Brexit, is now the time to lump into UK equities ?

    That's what I'm asking myself.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    edited January 2019

    On EUref1 Day, Remain traded at about 94%. That was as the country actually *voted* to leave. If you can't see any other outcome, you need to look harder.

    Depending on how the referendum is structured, it's entirely plausible to produce wins for Deal and No Deal as well.

    If it's a 3 option (Deal, No Deal, Remain) with preferences I would not be so certain of the outcome. But I find it hard to envisage it being anything other than the binary choice of Remain vs the Deal.

    And that, for me, is a non-contest. Remain has half the country to start with, therefore if only a small proportion of Leavers prefer it to the Deal it wins. A Deal which almost all of the leading lights in the Brexit movement have trashed as being terrible and furthermore which parliament will have roundly rejected.

    I would be an 'R' buyer at 60 for size.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    BREAKING: Downing Street briefing they still expect to lose the meaningful vote big

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1080864008616529920

    That's a long way from the message over the Christmas break that the mood was radically changing. So far as I can see that was all chaff thrown up by Downing Street.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758

    FPT:
    I don't think that's necessarily true.

    It isn't true. The EU can only conclude a withdrawal agreement, legally, as part of the Article 50 process. If the WA hasn't been concluded on the 29th March, and A50 isn't extended, the EU will have no further power to conclude the WA.
    Do you have an authority for that? There is nothing in Article 50 that says that an Agreement cannot be concluded after the departing state has left.
    I thought it was fairly obvious: A50 says that the treaties shall cease to apply to the UK on the 29th March, and it's the treaties that grant the EU authorisation to conclude a withdrawal agreement. Once it leaves, A50 ends, any authorisations the EU possessed are null and void.

    It would be ludicrous to claim otherwise: how could the terms of article 50 possibly apply to the either the EU or the UK once the UK leaves and the A50 period ends?
    +1
    That said, it could still be implemented as a temporary free trade agreement even if we have withdrawn.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    Hysteria about a no deal Brexit seems to have stepped up another notch today from what was already quite a fantastical level. My guess is that we would barely even notice although this mania does risk some self fulfilling aspects.

    If this makes some of our MPs back May's deal, however reluctantly, this would be a good thing but there is little evidence of that to date. It will be very interesting to see what the mood is when the MPs get back to the bear pit.

    BTW can some of those members of the electorate who thought they understood Labour's position on Brexit well enough to have a view on it please drop Corbyn a wee explanatory note. Keep it short and avoid long words as much as possible, natch.

    There will be a good deal of disappointment if the worst predictions of No Deal do not materialise.
    I'm still waiting for anyone other than @malcolmg to let me know whether they regard avoidable deaths and job losses (and if so at what level) as an acceptable price to pay for no-deal Brexit, if they should happen. I'm trying to understand the mindset and I'm not getting any help from my lab rats.
    avoidable deaths - eg pollution from german diesels - and job losses happen today when we are in the EU.

    Would you like to set the ball rolling and set the benchmark so that we can make a meaningful comparison to Brexit ?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    TGOHF said:

    nielh said:

    Could someone in the republican party do a Macron?

    Trump tried but his approval rating is on the way back up..
    Trump's is on the way down.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    BREAKING: Downing Street briefing they still expect to lose the meaningful vote big

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1080864008616529920

    And they'll keep asking till they get the right answer :D
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    NEW: Theresa May's allies privately concede they are on course to lose the meaningful vote due 12 days from now. Senior Tories are gaming a second vote or another delay. Downing Street insider: “If we have to have the vote 30 times, we will"

    Big fight coming if/when May gets anything back from Brussels. Labour will force publication of new govt legal advice, which Brexiteers say will "sink" any assurances. ERG plans to compare a letter from the EU to Chamberlain’s agreement with Hitler

    Brexiteers are talking about a "no deal by stealth". Interestingly they increasingly think May prefers no deal to a second referendum or election if she fails to get her deal through...

    The ERG has held several conference calls this week. They reckon 40 of their MPs will always vote against the deal and the DUP will not back down. Putting on a Northern Irish accent, a senior member of the ERG told BuzzFeed News: “No surrender"

    Senior ministers are urging May to set a departure date soon after March 29th to convince rebels a new leader can take over the next stage of Brexit negotiations. A cabinet minister has discussed the idea with Gavin Barwell.

    (Source: https://twitter.com/alexwickham)
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,547

    BREAKING: Downing Street briefing they still expect to lose the meaningful vote big

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1080864008616529920

    If the vote is lost by the kind of majority that was expected in December then the idea of bringing it back is for the birds. May (and Corbyn for that matter) will have to choose between no deal and suspension/revokation of article 50 to allow for further negotiation, second referendum etc.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Warren is quite impressive in this interview
    https://youtu.be/DNscSE6BFMQ
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    Hysteria about a no deal Brexit seems to have stepped up another notch today from what was already quite a fantastical level. My guess is that we would barely even notice although this mania does risk some self fulfilling aspects.

    If this makes some of our MPs back May's deal, however reluctantly, this would be a good thing but there is little evidence of that to date. It will be very interesting to see what the mood is when the MPs get back to the bear pit.

    BTW can some of those members of the electorate who thought they understood Labour's position on Brexit well enough to have a view on it please drop Corbyn a wee explanatory note. Keep it short and avoid long words as much as possible, natch.

    There will be a good deal of disappointment if the worst predictions of No Deal do not materialise.
    I'm still waiting for anyone other than @malcolmg to let me know whether they regard avoidable deaths and job losses (and if so at what level) as an acceptable price to pay for no-deal Brexit, if they should happen. I'm trying to understand the mindset and I'm not getting any help from my lab rats.
    Anything better than the Black Death is acceptable.
    Among the results of the Black Death of course was a considerable increase in wages, and IIUC the end of the feudal system.
  • Right wish me luck, I have to pretend to be a City fan in the Etihad this evening.
  • Actual LOL moment at this one:

    https://twitter.com/ElectCalculus/status/1080798253577314304

    Labour: 24% of the vote, 5% of the seats.

    Can we interest you in a proportional voting system, guys?

    Where is Justin to reject this poll and claim labour will rise from the ashes in Scotland
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    Hysteria about a no deal Brexit seems to have stepped up another notch today from what was already quite a fantastical level. My guess is that we would barely even notice although this mania does risk some self fulfilling aspects.

    If this makes some of our MPs back May's deal, however reluctantly, this would be a good thing but there is little evidence of that to date. It will be very interesting to see what the mood is when the MPs get back to the bear pit.

    BTW can some of those members of the electorate who thought they understood Labour's position on Brexit well enough to have a view on it please drop Corbyn a wee explanatory note. Keep it short and avoid long words as much as possible, natch.

    There will be a good deal of disappointment if the worst predictions of No Deal do not materialise.
    I'm still waiting for anyone other than @malcolmg to let me know whether they regard avoidable deaths and job losses (and if so at what level) as an acceptable price to pay for no-deal Brexit, if they should happen. I'm trying to understand the mindset and I'm not getting any help from my lab rats.
    avoidable deaths - eg pollution from german diesels - and job losses happen today when we are in the EU.

    Would you like to set the ball rolling and set the benchmark so that we can make a meaningful comparison to Brexit ?
    The evasiveness among no-dealers on the point is extraordinary. It should be simple enough to identify a level beyond which Brexit wasn't worth it. But no, there appears to be no sacrifice that the cultists don't expect of their fellow countrymen in order to secure it. It conjures up visions of Aztec step pyramids cascading blood from the beating hearts of the human sacrifices made for the higher spiritual purpose.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Pretty much a non story, especially as it does not involve Sanders himself. Though given Sanders is second only to Biden in the Democratic polls and did so well in the early stages last time now is am excelled time to get on him for the nomination. After all sexual harassment allegations neither stopped Trump getting the nomination or the Presidency, same with Bill Clinton and those were made against them personally
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    BREAKING: Downing Street briefing they still expect to lose the meaningful vote big

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1080864008616529920

    That's a long way from the message over the Christmas break that the mood was radically changing. So far as I can see that was all chaff thrown up by Downing Street.
    I don't think anybody bought it, even for a second.

    If there's one thing we've learned it's that nothing has changed.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited January 2019

    Warren is quite impressive in this interview
    https://youtu.be/DNscSE6BFMQ

    She is a Trump wet dream of an opponent, to win the rustbelt and the electoral college the Democrats need Biden or Sanders
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,547

    BREAKING: Downing Street briefing they still expect to lose the meaningful vote big

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1080864008616529920

    That's a long way from the message over the Christmas break that the mood was radically changing. So far as I can see that was all chaff thrown up by Downing Street.
    Correct. Just like the stories we read last summer about how 30 Labour MPs were set to back May's deal. The were based on nothing more than the imaginations of Downing Street spinners.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,401
    Pulpstar said:

    BREAKING: Downing Street briefing they still expect to lose the meaningful vote big

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1080864008616529920

    And they'll keep asking till they get the right answer :D
    Presumably that is the advice May received last time she went to Brussels.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    BREAKING: Downing Street briefing they still expect to lose the meaningful vote big

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1080864008616529920

    A continuous MV then until they get Mays deal approved.
    I suppose grinding MPs down until they succumb, seems a good strategy, to keep our current PM in office.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979

    RobD said:

    Karma’s great.

    Farmers will face a grim barrage of export tariffs, increased haulage costs, paperwork and looming labour shortages in the event of a no-deal Brexit, Michael Gove warned today.

    He painted a nightmare scenario for Britain’s food producers as he urged fellow MPs to back the prime minister’s Brexit deal.

    “It’s a grim but inescapable fact that in the event of a no-deal Brexit the effective tariffs of meat and sheep meat would be above 40 per cent. In some cases well above that,” Mr Gove told the Oxford Farming Conference.

    The National Farmers Union said that tariffs on beef exports could be up to 65 per cent and tariffs on lamb could be 46 per cent.

    Mr Gove, the cabinet’s leading Brexiteer, rejected suggestions that his warnings were a repeat of “Project Fear” — the term his fellow Brexiteers used to dismiss Remain campaigners’ warnings about what Brexit would entail.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/no-deal-brexit-will-be-nightmare-for-farmers-warns-gove-8cq77k5bb


    Karma 2

    Leo needs a bung


    https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/emergency-eu-aid-to-be-sought-for-brexit-fallout-37676966.html
    The EU will back Leo.

    It'll be fine.
    Where are they going to get the money from? :p
    Mexico will pay.
    According to Vincente, they won't pay for "that Wall".


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iYZKrn7Bbl8
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    Pulpstar said:

    BREAKING: Downing Street briefing they still expect to lose the meaningful vote big

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1080864008616529920

    And they'll keep asking till they get the right answer :D
    Presumably that is the advice May received last time she went to Brussels.
    The Salzburgings will continue until morale improves.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,401

    Right wish me luck, I have to pretend to be a City fan in the Etihad this evening.

    Well you don't have a Scouse accent, so you're off to a good start.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    BREAKING: Downing Street briefing they still expect to lose the meaningful vote big

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1080864008616529920

    If the vote is lost by the kind of majority that was expected in December then the idea of bringing it back is for the birds. May (and Corbyn for that matter) will have to choose between no deal and suspension/revokation of article 50 to allow for further negotiation, second referendum etc.
    Nope. There is no alternative Deal as both May and the EU have made clear, no further negotiations. Once both EUref2 and Norway plus are put forward to the House using the Grieve amendment and voted down May can persist with her Deal as the only alternative to No Deal
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    edited January 2019

    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    Hysteria about a no deal Brexit seems to have stepped up another notch today from what was already quite a fantastical level. My guess is that we would barely even notice although this mania does risk some self fulfilling aspects.

    If this makes some of our MPs back May's deal, however reluctantly, this would be a good thing but there is little evidence of that to date. It will be very interesting to see what the mood is when the MPs get back to the bear pit.

    BTW can some of those members of the electorate who thought they understood Labour's position on Brexit well enough to have a view on it please drop Corbyn a wee explanatory note. Keep it short and avoid long words as much as possible, natch.

    There will be a good deal of disappointment if the worst predictions of No Deal do not materialise.
    I'm still waiting for anyone other than @malcolmg to let me know whether they regard avoidable deaths and job losses (and if so at what level) as an acceptable price to pay for no-deal Brexit, if they should happen. I'm trying to understand the mindset and I'm not getting any help from my lab rats.
    avoidable deaths - eg pollution from german diesels - and job losses happen today when we are in the EU.

    Would you like to set the ball rolling and set the benchmark so that we can make a meaningful comparison to Brexit ?
    The evasiveness among no-dealers on the point is extraordinary. It should be simple enough to identify a level beyond which Brexit wasn't worth it. But no, there appears to be no sacrifice that the cultists don't expect of their fellow countrymen in order to secure it. It conjures up visions of Aztec step pyramids cascading blood from the beating hearts of the human sacrifices made for the higher spiritual purpose.
    Well your emotive response shows why people chose to ignore your obvious baiting

    As I said being in the EU doesnt protect us from job losses or premature deaths, so to do a meaningful comparison we must have a baseline.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Yorkcity said:

    BREAKING: Downing Street briefing they still expect to lose the meaningful vote big

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1080864008616529920

    A continuous MV then until they get Mays deal approved.
    I suppose grinding MPs down until they succumb, seems a good strategy, to keep our current PM in office.
    It's the year 2089. Eternal Prime Minister The Hologram of Theresa May announces that Parliament will be invited for the 27,422nd attempt to approve her deal.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    kinabalu said:

    On EUref1 Day, Remain traded at about 94%. That was as the country actually *voted* to leave. If you can't see any other outcome, you need to look harder.

    Depending on how the referendum is structured, it's entirely plausible to produce wins for Deal and No Deal as well.

    If it's a 3 option (Deal, No Deal, Remain) with preferences I would not be so certain of the outcome. But I find it hard to envisage it being anything other than the binary choice of Remain vs the Deal.

    And that, for me, is a non-contest. Remain has half the country to start with, therefore if only a small proportion of Leavers prefer it to the Deal it wins. A Deal which almost all of the leading lights in the Brexit movement have trashed as being terrible and furthermore which parliament will have roundly rejected.

    I would be an 'R' buyer at 60 for size.
    Yougov has The Deal getting 362 constituencies over No Deal or Remain. Deltapoll had the Deal beating Remain 62% to 38%
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    Hysteria about a no deal Brexit seems to have stepped up another notch today from what was already quite a fantastical level. My guess is that we would barely even notice although this mania does risk some self fulfilling aspects.

    If this makes some of our MPs back May's deal, however reluctantly, this would be a good thing but there is little evidence of that to date. It will be very interesting to see what the mood is when the MPs get back to the bear pit.

    BTW can some of those members of the electorate who thought they understood Labour's position on Brexit well enough to have a view on it please drop Corbyn a wee explanatory note. Keep it short and avoid long words as much as possible, natch.

    There will be a good deal of disappointment if the worst predictions of No Deal do not materialise.
    I'm still waiting for anyone other than @malcolmg to let me know whether they regard avoidable deaths and job losses (and if so at what level) as an acceptable price to pay for no-deal Brexit, if they should happen. I'm trying to understand the mindset and I'm not getting any help from my lab rats.
    avoidable deaths - eg pollution from german diesels - and job losses happen today when we are in the EU.

    Would you like to set the ball rolling and set the benchmark so that we can make a meaningful comparison to Brexit ?
    The evasiveness among no-dealers on the point is extraordinary. It should be simple enough to identify a level beyond which Brexit wasn't worth it. But no, there appears to be no sacrifice that the cultists don't expect of their fellow countrymen in order to secure it. It conjures up visions of Aztec step pyramids cascading blood from the beating hearts of the human sacrifices made for the higher spiritual purpose.
    No Deal is not my favoured option, but I answered the question.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979

    eek said:

    This is why Jeremy Hunt looks like a Prime Minister in waiting.
    If Javid is getting criticised by the likes of Armando Iannucci, then he’s saying and doing all the right things to get elected.
    He really isn’t.

    Before Christmas Javid managed to make Lord Adonis sound reasonable.

    I say that as someone who is on Javid as next Con leader at 60/1.
    The problem is, he hasn't made even the slightest attempt to hide the fact that his current round of gammon-bothering serves no purpose except to help him win the leadership election. It brings the office into disrepute, and all seems a bit needy and unseemly. Nobody likes the stench of desperation, Saj.

    Also, as we've seen, he's painted a cross on his back now by declaring himself the front runner, so expect lots more "sources closes to cabinet minister" stories about what a prick he is in the next few days.
    Ones like this one in the Sun from this morning https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8106523/sajid-javid-power-gone-to-his-head/ ?
    Fuck me that photo.

    Somebody in his team needs to get him to start wearing hats or fascinators or sweatbands or tiaras or hijabs or SOMETHING to break up his eldritch facial symmetries.
    Reminds me of The Mekon.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    Hysteria about a no deal Brexit seems to have stepped up another notch today from what was already quite a fantastical level. My guess is that we would barely even notice although this mania does risk some self fulfilling aspects.

    If this makes some of our MPs back May's deal, however reluctantly, this would be a good thing but there is little evidence of that to date. It will be very interesting to see what the mood is when the MPs get back to the bear pit.

    BTW can some of those members of the electorate who thought they understood Labour's position on Brexit well enough to have a view on it please drop Corbyn a wee explanatory note. Keep it short and avoid long words as much as possible, natch.

    There will be a good deal of disappointment if the worst predictions of No Deal do not materialise.
    I'm still waiting for anyone other than @malcolmg to let me know whether they regard avoidable deaths and job losses (and if so at what level) as an acceptable price to pay for no-deal Brexit, if they should happen. I'm trying to understand the mindset and I'm not getting any help from my lab rats.
    avoidable deaths - eg pollution from german diesels - and job losses happen today when we are in the EU.

    Would you like to set the ball rolling and set the benchmark so that we can make a meaningful comparison to Brexit ?
    The evasiveness among no-dealers on the point is extraordinary. It should be simple enough to identify a level beyond which Brexit wasn't worth it. But no, there appears to be no sacrifice that the cultists don't expect of their fellow countrymen in order to secure it. It conjures up visions of Aztec step pyramids cascading blood from the beating hearts of the human sacrifices made for the higher spiritual purpose.
    Well your emotive response shows why people chose to ignore your obvious baiting

    As I side being in the EU doesnt protect us from job losses or premature deaths, so to do a meaningful comparison we must have a baseline.
    Draw it for yourself. I'm offering you the opportunity to demonstrate the limits of your Brexitiness. Or is there no level of misery that you are unprepared to inflict on the country in pursuit of Brexit?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    Barnesian said:

    eek said:

    This is why Jeremy Hunt looks like a Prime Minister in waiting.
    If Javid is getting criticised by the likes of Armando Iannucci, then he’s saying and doing all the right things to get elected.
    He really isn’t.

    Before Christmas Javid managed to make Lord Adonis sound reasonable.

    I say that as someone who is on Javid as next Con leader at 60/1.
    The problem is, he hasn't made even the slightest attempt to hide the fact that his current round of gammon-bothering serves no purpose except to help him win the leadership election. It brings the office into disrepute, and all seems a bit needy and unseemly. Nobody likes the stench of desperation, Saj.

    Also, as we've seen, he's painted a cross on his back now by declaring himself the front runner, so expect lots more "sources closes to cabinet minister" stories about what a prick he is in the next few days.
    Ones like this one in the Sun from this morning https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8106523/sajid-javid-power-gone-to-his-head/ ?
    Fuck me that photo.

    Somebody in his team needs to get him to start wearing hats or fascinators or sweatbands or tiaras or hijabs or SOMETHING to break up his eldritch facial symmetries.
    Reminds me of The Mekon.
    Dr Evil
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    ydoethur said:

    Greetings Mr Eagles, your book posted this earlier:

    This is why Jeremy Hunt looks like a Prime Minister in waiting.
    A man with no principles or beliefs beyond arrogance and his own advancement. A worthy successor to the two men who created today's Tory Party, David Cameron and Boris Johnson.
    A successful businessman, magnificent Secretary of State for Health where he obtained record funding for the NHS, and has gravitas to be PM, as evidenced by his stint as Foreign Secretary.
    I hope that you have now been released from whatever dark dungeon it held you in.
    Look, if Hunt becomes next Tory Leader/PM I'll have enough money to hire a dominatrix for two hours a day for a month^*!.

    You can understand my excitement at Hunt becoming PM.


    ^As a good Muslim boy, I'd never hire a dominatrix

    *As a Yorkshireman, Ow Much would kick in, so I'd never hire one.

    !Why do men pay strange women to sexually frustrate them, they can get that free if they marry them.
    long term marriage is more expensive
    If it floats, flies or f***s, you’ll always find it much cheaper in the long term to rent rather than buy...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited January 2019
    Starmer then McDonnell then Thornberry tied with Umunna with Labour voters, though Cooper ahead of Umunna with Labour members otherwise the same with them
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Right wish me luck, I have to pretend to be a City fan in the Etihad this evening.

    LOL, good luck!

    I’m starting to get a feeling that this might finally be Liverpool’s year.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    On EUref1 Day, Remain traded at about 94%. That was as the country actually *voted* to leave. If you can't see any other outcome, you need to look harder.

    Depending on how the referendum is structured, it's entirely plausible to produce wins for Deal and No Deal as well.

    If it's a 3 option (Deal, No Deal, Remain) with preferences I would not be so certain of the outcome. But I find it hard to envisage it being anything other than the binary choice of Remain vs the Deal.

    And that, for me, is a non-contest. Remain has half the country to start with, therefore if only a small proportion of Leavers prefer it to the Deal it wins. A Deal which almost all of the leading lights in the Brexit movement have trashed as being terrible and furthermore which parliament will have roundly rejected.

    I would be an 'R' buyer at 60 for size.
    Yougov has The Deal getting 362 constituencies over No Deal or Remain. Deltapoll had the Deal beating Remain 62% to 38%
    You're still clinging to dodgy polls that don't say what you claim they do.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    Hysteria about a no deal Brexit seems to have stepped up another notch today from what was already quite a fantastical level. My guess is that we would barely even notice although this mania does risk some self fulfilling aspects.

    If this makes some of our MPs back May's deal, however reluctantly, this would be a good thing but there is little evidence of that to date. It will be very interesting to see what the mood is when the MPs get back to the bear pit.

    BTW can some of those members of the electorate who thought they understood Labour's position on Brexit well enough to have a view on it please drop Corbyn a wee explanatory note. Keep it short and avoid long words as much as possible, natch.

    There will be a good deal of disappointment if the worst predictions of No Deal do not materialise.
    I'm still waiting for anyone other than @malcolmg to let me know whether they regard avoidable deaths and job losses (and if so at what level) as an acceptable price to pay for no-deal Brexit, if they should happen. I'm trying to understand the mindset and I'm not getting any help from my lab rats.
    avoidable deaths - eg pollution from german diesels - and job losses happen today when we are in the EU.

    Would you like to set the ball rolling and set the benchmark so that we can make a meaningful comparison to Brexit ?
    The evasiveness among no-dealers on the point is extraordinary. It should be simple enough to identify a level beyond which Brexit wasn't worth it. But no, there appears to be no sacrifice that the cultists don't expect of their fellow countrymen in order to secure it. It conjures up visions of Aztec step pyramids cascading blood from the beating hearts of the human sacrifices made for the higher spiritual purpose.
    Well your emotive response shows why people chose to ignore your obvious baiting

    As I side being in the EU doesnt protect us from job losses or premature deaths, so to do a meaningful comparison we must have a baseline.
    Draw it for yourself. I'm offering you the opportunity to demonstrate the limits of your Brexitiness. Or is there no level of misery that you are unprepared to inflict on the country in pursuit of Brexit?
    so in other words you dont know what the baseline is.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851

    No, No Deal would be on the ballot paper as well. Tory internal opposition would see to that.

    The format I suggested - and this is at the outer edge of what might be acceptable - would be to have two questions:

    1. No Deal - yes or no
    2. If 'No' to (1), then Remain or Deal

    That still structurally loads the paper against No Deal, to an extent that would cause a lot of ERG opposition but I think it could be containable. Leaving No Deal off altogether would be a step too far.

    Ok cheers thanks. Couple of points.

    I see problems in defining what 'No Deal' means to a sufficient level of precision for a referendum.

    And then, ok, assuming your format, which I agree is logical, I think No is a stone cold certainty for Q1, therefore Q2 becomes the question, and that is the binary Remain vs Deal referendum that IMO is a lock for Remain.

    I think that "We will put this back to the People" is code for "We will not be leaving the European Union".
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    HYUFD said:

    Starmer then McDonnell then Thornberry tied with Umunna with Labour voters
    It'll be a woman. Labour MPs have already decided it needs to be. It looks bad for Labour to have never elected a female leader.

    Emily Thornberry is Corbyn's heir apparent, but I'm not sure that counts against her as much as you might think.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    Hysteria about a no deal Brexit seems to have stepped up another notch today from what was already quite a fantastical level. My guess is that we would barely even notice although this mania does risk some self fulfilling aspects.

    If this makes some of our MPs back May's deal, however reluctantly, this would be a good thing but there is little evidence of that to date. It will be very interesting to see what the mood is when the MPs get back to the bear pit.

    BTW can some of those members of the electorate who thought they understood Labour's position on Brexit well enough to have a view on it please drop Corbyn a wee explanatory note. Keep it short and avoid long words as much as possible, natch.

    There will be a good deal of disappointment if the worst predictions of No Deal do not materialise.
    I'm still waiting for anyone other than @malcolmg to let me know whether they regard avoidable deaths and job losses (and if so at what level) as an acceptable price to pay for no-deal Brexit, if they should happen. I'm trying to understand the mindset and I'm not getting any help from my lab rats.
    avoidable deaths - eg pollution from german diesels - and job losses happen today when we are in the EU.

    Would you like to set the ball rolling and set the benchmark so that we can make a meaningful comparison to Brexit ?
    The evasiveness among no-dealers on the point is extraordinary. It should be simple enough to identify a level beyond which Brexit wasn't worth it. But no, there appears to be no sacrifice that the cultists don't expect of their fellow countrymen in order to secure it. It conjures up visions of Aztec step pyramids cascading blood from the beating hearts of the human sacrifices made for the higher spiritual purpose.
    No Deal is not my favoured option, but I answered the question.
    Indeed, and you can hardly complain at the comparison drawn on that basis.

    It's all very well saying that the benefits of Brexit are not economic but cultural but there comes a point where the costs of any cultural revolution are not worth the price.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited January 2019

    kinabalu said:

    eek said:

    It depends on how they mitigate the anger of austerity Britain. Unless they are very careful I expect the result would be We told you Leave and we meant it...

    That's why David Herdson's questions from this morning look good. by asking do you want to leave with No Deal first you mitigate the risk of Leave wining a Leave/ Remain question and No Deal losing the second question....

    Not sure I quite understand that? Could you clarify?

    IMO the only referendum that in practice will be approved is the binary, Remain vs The Deal.

    Liverpool vs Accrington Stanley.
    No, No Deal would be on the ballot paper as well. Tory internal opposition would see to that.

    The format I suggested - and this is at the outer edge of what might be acceptable - would be to have two questions:

    1. No Deal - yes or no
    2. If 'No' to (1), then Remain or Deal

    That still structurally loads the paper against No Deal, to an extent that would cause a lot of ERG opposition but I think it could be containable. Leaving No Deal off altogether would be a step too far.
    The only EUref2 questions the Sunday Times reported civil servants as preparing are Remain v Deal or Remain v Leave then Leave with the Deal or No Deal
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    Hysteria about a no deal Brexit seems to have stepped up another notch today from what was already quite a fantastical level. My guess is that we would barely even notice although this mania does risk some self fulfilling aspects.

    If this makes some of our MPs back May's deal, however reluctantly, this would be a good thing but there is little evidence of that to date. It will be very interesting to see what the mood is when the MPs get back to the bear pit.

    BTW can some of those members of the electorate who thought they understood Labour's position on Brexit well enough to have a view on it please drop Corbyn a wee explanatory note. Keep it short and avoid long words as much as possible, natch.

    There will be a good deal of disappointment if the worst predictions of No Deal do not materialise.
    I'm still waiting for anyone other than @malcolmg to let me know whether they regard avoidable deaths and job losses (and if so at what level) as an acceptable price to pay for no-deal Brexit, if they should happen. I'm trying to understand the mindset and I'm not getting any help from my lab rats.
    avoidable deaths - eg pollution from german diesels - and job losses happen today when we are in the EU.

    Would you like to set the ball rolling and set the benchmark so that we can make a meaningful comparison to Brexit ?
    The evasiveness among no-dealers on the point is extraordinary. It should be simple enough to identify a level beyond which Brexit wasn't worth it. But no, there appears to be no sacrifice that the cultists don't expect of their fellow countrymen in order to secure it. It conjures up visions of Aztec step pyramids cascading blood from the beating hearts of the human sacrifices made for the higher spiritual purpose.
    No Deal is not my favoured option, but I answered the question.
    Indeed, and you can hardly complain at the comparison drawn on that basis.

    It's all very well saying that the benefits of Brexit are not economic but cultural but there comes a point where the costs of any cultural revolution are not worth the price.
    which is why we voted to leave
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234



    Indeed, and you can hardly complain at the comparison drawn on that basis.

    It's all very well saying that the benefits of Brexit are not economic but cultural but there comes a point where the costs of any cultural revolution are not worth the price.

    It'll be when they come for Her Majesty's golden piano.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Sean_F said:


    There will be a good deal of disappointment if the worst predictions of No Deal do not materialise.

    I'm still waiting for anyone other than @malcolmg to let me know whether they regard avoidable deaths and job losses (and if so at what level) as an acceptable price to pay for no-deal Brexit, if they should happen. I'm trying to understand the mindset and I'm not getting any help from my lab rats.
    avoidable deaths - eg pollution from german diesels - and job losses happen today when we are in the EU.

    Would you like to set the ball rolling and set the benchmark so that we can make a meaningful comparison to Brexit ?
    The evasiveness among no-dealers on the point is extraordinary. It should be simple enough to identify a level beyond which Brexit wasn't worth it. But no, there appears to be no sacrifice that the cultists don't expect of their fellow countrymen in order to secure it. It conjures up visions of Aztec step pyramids cascading blood from the beating hearts of the human sacrifices made for the higher spiritual purpose.
    Well your emotive response shows why people chose to ignore your obvious baiting

    As I side being in the EU doesnt protect us from job losses or premature deaths, so to do a meaningful comparison we must have a baseline.
    Draw it for yourself. I'm offering you the opportunity to demonstrate the limits of your Brexitiness. Or is there no level of misery that you are unprepared to inflict on the country in pursuit of Brexit?
    so in other words you dont know what the baseline is.
    I'm asking specifically about negative consequences caused by no-deal Brexit. The baseline is zero.

    I'm wanting to know if you are going to lean back nonchalantly and opine on the long term benefits of Brexit as the first born are slaughtered or whether you regard any substantial disruption as profoundly unlikely and will in fact be horrified if any disruption emerges. This is not a complicated question but Leavers in general seem remarkably unwilling to examine which of the two views they subscribe to.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    HYUFD said:

    Warren is quite impressive in this interview
    https://youtu.be/DNscSE6BFMQ

    She is a Trump wet dream of an opponent, to win the rustbelt and the electoral college the Democrats need Biden or Sanders
    538 has some interesting analysis of Warren, and what is really striking is that - in her home state of Massachusetts - she's only polling at 11% for the Democratic nomination. If she's that unpopular in her home state, it's hard to see how she can win the nomination.

    What is in her favour is that two of the top Democratic officials in New Hampshire are her staff on secondment. Still, it's hard to think it will be enough.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    On EUref1 Day, Remain traded at about 94%. That was as the country actually *voted* to leave. If you can't see any other outcome, you need to look harder.

    Depending on how the referendum is structured, it's entirely plausible to produce wins for Deal and No Deal as well.

    If it's a 3 option (Deal, No Deal, Remain) with preferences I would not be so certain of the outcome. But I find it hard to envisage it being anything other than the binary choice of Remain vs the Deal.

    And that, for me, is a non-contest. Remain has half the country to start with, therefore if only a small proportion of Leavers prefer it to the Deal it wins. A Deal which almost all of the leading lights in the Brexit movement have trashed as being terrible and furthermore which parliament will have roundly rejected.

    I would be an 'R' buyer at 60 for size.
    Yougov has The Deal getting 362 constituencies over No Deal or Remain. Deltapoll had the Deal beating Remain 62% to 38%
    You're still clinging to dodgy polls that don't say what you claim they do.
    They do, certainly Deltapoll. You cling onto polls commissioned by People's Vote, so pot calling kettle back
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    Sean_F said:


    There will be a good deal of disappointment if the worst predictions of No Deal do not materialise.

    I'm still waiting for anyone other than @malcolmg to let me know whether they regard avoidable deaths and job losses (and if so at what level) as an acceptable price to pay for no-deal Brexit, if they should happen. I'm trying to understand the mindset and I'm not getting any help from my lab rats.
    avoidable deaths - eg pollution from german diesels - and job losses happen today when we are in the EU.

    Would you like to set the ball rolling and set the benchmark so that we can make a meaningful comparison to Brexit ?
    The evasiveness among no-dealers on the point is extraordinary. It should be simple enough to identify a level beyond which Brexit wasn't worth it. But no, there appears to be no sacrifice that the cultists don't expect of their fellow countrymen in order to secure it. It conjures up visions of Aztec step pyramids cascading blood from the beating hearts of the human sacrifices made for the higher spiritual purpose.
    Well your emotive response shows why people chose to ignore your obvious baiting

    As I side being in the EU doesnt protect us from job losses or premature deaths, so to do a meaningful comparison we must have a baseline.
    Draw it for yourself. I'm offering you the opportunity to demonstrate the limits of your Brexitiness. Or is there no level of misery that you are unprepared to inflict on the country in pursuit of Brexit?
    so in other words you dont know what the baseline is.
    I'm asking specifically about negative consequences caused by no-deal Brexit. The baseline is zero.

    I'm wanting to know if you are going to lean back nonchalantly and opine on the long term benefits of Brexit as the first born are slaughtered or whether you regard any substantial disruption as profoundly unlikely and will in fact be horrified if any disruption emerges. This is not a complicated question but Leavers in general seem remarkably unwilling to examine which of the two views they subscribe to.
    frankly it will make no difference
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    HYUFD said:

    Deltapoll had the Deal beating Remain 62% to 38%

    WHAT ??

    In a binary choice?

    that does not compute, that does not compute, that does not compute ... wires melt, smoke rises, things fall off.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    HYUFD said:



    They do, certainly Deltapoll. You cling onto polls commissioned by People's Vote, so pot calling kettle back

    One thing you're wilfully neglecting to mention was during May's weird two week charm offensive, public opinion against the deal hardened significantly.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    HYUFD said:

    Starmer then McDonnell then Thornberry tied with Umunna with Labour voters
    It'll be a woman. Labour MPs have already decided it needs to be. It looks bad for Labour to have never elected a female leader.

    Emily Thornberry is Corbyn's heir apparent, but I'm not sure that counts against her as much as you might think.
    We were told that in 2010 and 2015, it was a man in both cases.

    Labour members have never voted for a woman as leader despite many chances to do so
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870

    Yorkcity said:

    BREAKING: Downing Street briefing they still expect to lose the meaningful vote big

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1080864008616529920

    A continuous MV then until they get Mays deal approved.
    I suppose grinding MPs down until they succumb, seems a good strategy, to keep our current PM in office.
    It's the year 2089. Eternal Prime Minister The Hologram of Theresa May announces that Parliament will be invited for the 27,422nd attempt to approve her deal.
    On the upside, maybe AI will have developed sufficiently by 2089 for the Maybot to have acquired qualities like empathy.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    HYUFD said:

    Warren is quite impressive in this interview
    https://youtu.be/DNscSE6BFMQ

    She is a Trump wet dream of an opponent, to win the rustbelt and the electoral college the Democrats need Biden or Sanders
    Biden is a ditherer and will fart around like he did last time never quite ruing himself in or out. Bernie is damaged goods. Rust belt less iimportant.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    HYUFD said:



    They do, certainly Deltapoll. You cling onto polls commissioned by People's Vote, so pot calling kettle back

    One thing you're wilfully neglecting to mention was during May's weird two week charm offensive, public opinion against the deal hardened significantly.
    Evidence? The Deal frequently beats Remain or No Deal head to head but trails on first preferences
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,547
    HYUFD said:

    BREAKING: Downing Street briefing they still expect to lose the meaningful vote big

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1080864008616529920

    If the vote is lost by the kind of majority that was expected in December then the idea of bringing it back is for the birds. May (and Corbyn for that matter) will have to choose between no deal and suspension/revokation of article 50 to allow for further negotiation, second referendum etc.
    Nope. There is no alternative Deal as both May and the EU have made clear, no further negotiations. Once both EUref2 and Norway plus are put forward to the House using the Grieve amendment and voted down May can persist with her Deal as the only alternative to No Deal
    Well I don't know about you but I struggle to see how May can somehow beat MPs into submission and force them to swallow a deal which few of them (and few people in the country) support. I can't think of any modern precedent for such cromwellian tactics.
  • We should revoke Article 50 purely for this

    https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1080877688200577027
This discussion has been closed.