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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why changes to the primary structure are going to make WH2020

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited January 4 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why changes to the primary structure are going to make WH2020 more challenging for Bernie and non-mainstream contenders

As we look towards 2020 for the next White House Race leading figures within the Democratic party are ready to follow Elizabeth Warren and put their hats into the ring in the battle to be the nominee.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • notme2notme2 Posts: 232
    Pochantos for president.
  • I'm not sure it is good for the Dems to have California so early.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 12,974
    Third like Boris
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 9,785
    I reckon this just makes Iowa more important. Whoever wins there gets several days of good media just as Californian postal voters get their ballots.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 9,785

    I'm not sure it is good for the Dems to have California so early.

    On past performance it'll be a while before they get around to actually counting the votes.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,146
    California's big move from the end to the start of the primary cycle means that Californians will now have a huge influence on the process that they never had before.

    You'd think that California would be ripe territory for the political equivalent of Larry David if it weren't for Kamala Harris.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,871
    edited January 4

    I reckon this just makes Iowa more important. Whoever wins there gets several days of good media just as Californian postal voters get their ballots.

    Iowa will be a good test of ground ops - I reckon Beto could do well there and I see Warren performing well in New Hampshire because it borders on to Massachusetts
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 48,984

    I'm not sure it is good for the Dems to have California so early.

    How early will California actually be ? Their record at counting in anything approaching a decent pace is absolutely gash.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 20,716
    Fund-raising, innit? You can't run a campaign in CA on a shoestring.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 31,788
    Miles too slow, like Hawkeye goal line tech in the game last night...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,305
    Yet another OGH anti Bernie thread.

    The fact remains Iowa and New Hampshire still vote first before other states and Sanders won New Hampshire in 2016 and lost Iowa by less than 1%. If he wins both he will almost certainly be nominee as all the momentum will be his, no candidate in post war history has won Iowa and New Hampshire and failed to be nominee.

    As for Harris she is yet another California coastal liberal who would lose the rustbelt and the Electoral College, little better than Warren. O'Rourke really needed to have beaten Cruz not lost to have a chance
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,146
    Pulpstar said:

    I'm not sure it is good for the Dems to have California so early.

    How early will California actually be ? Their record at counting in anything approaching a decent pace is absolutely gash.
    Third. Straight after Iowa and New Hampshire.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 1,082
    FPT

    What about British nationalism?
    An oft heard cry from Labour Unionists during the indy ref was that Scottish independence would make family foreigners (Tony Benn & Margaret Curran spring to mind as producers of that sort of guff). Why is being a foreigner so bad, and why should a Glasgow scaffolder feel more internationalist solidarity with one from Gloucester than he would with ones from Galway or Göttingen?

    Because the common man in Berwickshire and the common man in Northumberland are culturally and linguistically one and the same.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,305

    I'm not sure it is good for the Dems to have California so early.

    Indeed it is not California they need to win, it is already in the bag for them. Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio even Iowa are far more important states they need to gain
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 48,984
    Does anyone have a timetable/idea of when the delegates will actually be allocated. California weren't errm be 'overnight' counting - so Texas will be in earlier.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 18,370

    I reckon this just makes Iowa more important. Whoever wins there gets several days of good media just as Californian postal voters get their ballots.

    Iowa will be a good test of ground ops - I reckon Beto could do well there and I see Warren performing well in New Hampshire because it borders on to Massachusetts
    :+1:

    One of his opponent's aides in TX race said something along the lines of god help any dem who runs against him as far as ground game and retail stuff goes.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,871
    HYUFD said:

    Yet another OGH anti Bernie thread.

    The fact remains Iowa and New Hampshire still vote first before other states and Sanders won New Hampshire in 2016 and lost Iowa by less than 1%. If he wins both he will almost certainly be nominee as all the momentum will be his, no candidate in post war history has won Iowa and New Hampshire and failed to be nominee.

    As for Harris she is yet another California coastal liberal who would lose the rustbelt and the Electoral College, little better than Warren. O'Rourke really needed to have beaten Cruz not lost to have a chance

    I blame Bernie for President Trump
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 48,984

    Pulpstar said:

    I'm not sure it is good for the Dems to have California so early.

    How early will California actually be ? Their record at counting in anything approaching a decent pace is absolutely gash.
    Third. Straight after Iowa and New Hampshire.
    California won't have awarded its delegates 3rd. Anyone who has ever played a Betfair California voting market knows this.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 9,287
    It's also significant that the Democratic majority in the House of Representatives has already adopted a very progressive platform by historical standards.

    It arguably makes selection of a progressive nominee, as opposed to one with the best chance of getting elected, slightly less urgent for the left of the party.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 31,788
    edited January 4

    HYUFD said:

    Yet another OGH anti Bernie thread.

    The fact remains Iowa and New Hampshire still vote first before other states and Sanders won New Hampshire in 2016 and lost Iowa by less than 1%. If he wins both he will almost certainly be nominee as all the momentum will be his, no candidate in post war history has won Iowa and New Hampshire and failed to be nominee.

    As for Harris she is yet another California coastal liberal who would lose the rustbelt and the Electoral College, little better than Warren. O'Rourke really needed to have beaten Cruz not lost to have a chance

    I blame Bernie for President Trump
    Why?

    If Hillary hadn't run the sort of campaign that made the Tories 2017 GE campaign look good, she would have beaten Trump.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 20,716

    I reckon this just makes Iowa more important. Whoever wins there gets several days of good media just as Californian postal voters get their ballots.

    Maybe, but (a) Californians are not very likely to be much influenced by the hog-farmers of Iowa, and (b) Everyone is going to be aware that any early front-runner could suddenly become an also-ran when the Texas and California delegates are counted in.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,146

    Fund-raising, innit? You can't run a campaign in CA on a shoestring.

    That's a fair point. It's easy to talk about California as "just another state" but electorally of course it's the size of Spain or Poland.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 9,287
    HYUFD said:

    Yet another OGH anti Bernie thread.

    The fact remains Iowa and New Hampshire still vote first before other states and Sanders won New Hampshire in 2016 and lost Iowa by less than 1%. If he wins both he will almost certainly be nominee as all the momentum will be his, no candidate in post war history has won Iowa and New Hampshire and failed to be nominee.

    As for Harris she is yet another California coastal liberal who would lose the rustbelt and the Electoral College, little better than Warren. O'Rourke really needed to have beaten Cruz not lost to have a chance

    Put away your rearview mirror.
    Bernie is history.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 48,984

    I reckon this just makes Iowa more important. Whoever wins there gets several days of good media just as Californian postal voters get their ballots.

    Maybe, but (a) Californians are not very likely to be much influenced by the hog-farmers of Iowa, and (b) Everyone is going to be aware that any early front-runner could suddenly become an also-ran when the Texas and California delegates are counted in.
    Texas is more important (Even though I'm not tempted to back Beto at current prices). They'll have their delegates awarded before the first votes in CA are even started to be counted with the whole mail in/late system present in the Golden state.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 22,536
    I can't get the feeling out of my head that the ultimate Democrat nominee isn't yet being seriously talked about.

    Anyway, I'm continuing to lay the favourites. I'm not at all sure that anyone should be under 10 yet.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 9,785

    I reckon this just makes Iowa more important. Whoever wins there gets several days of good media just as Californian postal voters get their ballots.

    Iowa will be a good test of ground ops - I reckon Beto could do well there and I see Warren performing well in New Hampshire because it borders on to Massachusetts
    The same reasoning favours KLOBUCHAR in Iowa: She's right next door, her style is tuned to the area, some Iowans will already have Minnesotan telly.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 9,809

    Miles too slow, like Hawkeye goal line tech in the game last night...

    Hawkeye was fine last night, the ref knew straight-away that it wasn't a goal. What's the problem?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,305
    edited January 4

    HYUFD said:

    Yet another OGH anti Bernie thread.

    The fact remains Iowa and New Hampshire still vote first before other states and Sanders won New Hampshire in 2016 and lost Iowa by less than 1%. If he wins both he will almost certainly be nominee as all the momentum will be his, no candidate in post war history has won Iowa and New Hampshire and failed to be nominee.

    As for Harris she is yet another California coastal liberal who would lose the rustbelt and the Electoral College, little better than Warren. O'Rourke really needed to have beaten Cruz not lost to have a chance

    I blame Bernie for President Trump
    If Bernie had been nominee he may have beaten Trump by winning Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. The Democrats urgently need to win more blue collar whites to beat Trump, Hillary turned them off as will other elitist, coastal liberals
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 31,788

    I can't get the feeling out of my head that the ultimate Democrat nominee isn't yet being seriously talked about.

    Anyway, I'm continuing to lay the favourites. I'm not at all sure that anyone should be under 10 yet.

    All they really need is somebody who doesn't have some dodgy background, isn't totally obsessed with SJW nonsense and talks a vague amount of sense. It can't be that hard, surely.
  • tlg86 said:

    Miles too slow, like Hawkeye goal line tech in the game last night...

    Hawkeye was fine last night, the ref knew straight-away that it wasn't a goal. What's the problem?
    Can anyone explain why Greater Manchester's Anthony Taylor didn't send off Vincent Kompany for his off the floor assault on Mohamed Salah?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 9,785

    I reckon this just makes Iowa more important. Whoever wins there gets several days of good media just as Californian postal voters get their ballots.

    Maybe, but (a) Californians are not very likely to be much influenced by the hog-farmers of Iowa, and (b) Everyone is going to be aware that any early front-runner could suddenly become an also-ran when the Texas and California delegates are counted in.
    If the field is still crowded when the voting starts I think the hog-farmers will be a big deal in deciding who's viable.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,305
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yet another OGH anti Bernie thread.

    The fact remains Iowa and New Hampshire still vote first before other states and Sanders won New Hampshire in 2016 and lost Iowa by less than 1%. If he wins both he will almost certainly be nominee as all the momentum will be his, no candidate in post war history has won Iowa and New Hampshire and failed to be nominee.

    As for Harris she is yet another California coastal liberal who would lose the rustbelt and the Electoral College, little better than Warren. O'Rourke really needed to have beaten Cruz not lost to have a chance

    Put away your rearview mirror.
    Bernie is history.
    Not if Democrats want to win the rustbelt.

    Bar Biden he is the Democrats best shot of beating Trump in the Electoral College
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 48,984

    I can't get the feeling out of my head that the ultimate Democrat nominee isn't yet being seriously talked about.

    Anyway, I'm continuing to lay the favourites. I'm not at all sure that anyone should be under 10 yet.

    All they really need is somebody who doesn't have some dodgy background, isn't totally obsessed with SJW nonsense and talks a vague amount of sense. It can't be that hard, surely.
    Joe Biden; Amy Klobuchar; Sherrod Brown
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 9,287
    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yet another OGH anti Bernie thread.

    The fact remains Iowa and New Hampshire still vote first before other states and Sanders won New Hampshire in 2016 and lost Iowa by less than 1%. If he wins both he will almost certainly be nominee as all the momentum will be his, no candidate in post war history has won Iowa and New Hampshire and failed to be nominee.

    As for Harris she is yet another California coastal liberal who would lose the rustbelt and the Electoral College, little better than Warren. O'Rourke really needed to have beaten Cruz not lost to have a chance

    Put away your rearview mirror.
    Bernie is history.
    Not if Democrats want to win the rustbelt.

    Bar Biden he is the Democrats best shot of beating Trump in the Electoral College
    Pffft.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 7,187

    tlg86 said:

    Miles too slow, like Hawkeye goal line tech in the game last night...

    Hawkeye was fine last night, the ref knew straight-away that it wasn't a goal. What's the problem?
    Can anyone explain why Greater Manchester's Anthony Taylor didn't send off Vincent Kompany for his off the floor assault on Mohamed Salah?
    Can anyone explain why Yorkshire's TSE is bothered about the result of a match between two teams from the other side of the Pennines?
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 5,936

    I can't get the feeling out of my head that the ultimate Democrat nominee isn't yet being seriously talked about.

    Anyway, I'm continuing to lay the favourites. I'm not at all sure that anyone should be under 10 yet.

    All they really need is somebody who doesn't have some dodgy background, isn't totally obsessed with SJW nonsense and talks a vague amount of sense. It can't be that hard, surely.
    You mean they want a republican? Defo no SJW and only the vaguest of sense..... :D
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 48,984
    If Bernie is picked, he'll poll well right up until the actual vote at which point the planks will realise they don't particularly fancy socialism and will tick Trump in the privacy of the ballot box.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 9,809

    tlg86 said:

    Miles too slow, like Hawkeye goal line tech in the game last night...

    Hawkeye was fine last night, the ref knew straight-away that it wasn't a goal. What's the problem?
    Can anyone explain why Greater Manchester's Anthony Taylor didn't send off Vincent Kompany for his off the floor assault on Mohamed Salah?
    If it wasn't a red for serious foul play, I think it was for denying a clear and obvious goal scoring opportunity.

    But then Mane got away with his assault on Lichtsteiner, so I don't have that much sympathy.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,146
    edited January 4
    Hey, remember how number 10 were bullshitting over Christmas the DUP were coming round?

    Brexit: The DUP says there is 'no way' it will back PM's deal

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46757459?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 12,913
    Presumably AfD being left out just means the hackers were aware that they're squeaky clean with skeleton free closets.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 9,287

    HYUFD said:

    Yet another OGH anti Bernie thread.

    The fact remains Iowa and New Hampshire still vote first before other states and Sanders won New Hampshire in 2016 and lost Iowa by less than 1%. If he wins both he will almost certainly be nominee as all the momentum will be his, no candidate in post war history has won Iowa and New Hampshire and failed to be nominee.

    As for Harris she is yet another California coastal liberal who would lose the rustbelt and the Electoral College, little better than Warren. O'Rourke really needed to have beaten Cruz not lost to have a chance

    I blame Bernie for President Trump
    He clearly didn't help Clinton's cause, but if you can only win if your primary opponents don't attack you (fairly or unfairly), then you shouldn't be the candidate.

    I do blame him for tolerating misogyny in his campaign. But so will rather a lot of Democrats, so what goes around...
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 16,035
    I'm listening to the Serial podcast atm. They focus on Cleveland, OH and follow events in the courthouse. Fascinating. Talk about demographic disconnect.
  • tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Miles too slow, like Hawkeye goal line tech in the game last night...

    Hawkeye was fine last night, the ref knew straight-away that it wasn't a goal. What's the problem?
    Can anyone explain why Greater Manchester's Anthony Taylor didn't send off Vincent Kompany for his off the floor assault on Mohamed Salah?
    If it wasn't a red for serious foul play, I think it was for denying a clear and obvious goal scoring opportunity.

    But then Mane got away with his assault on Lichtsteiner, so I don't have that much sympathy.
    Lichtsteiner elbowed Mané in the build up to that innocent, Sadio was just defending himself from further aggression.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/news/what-stephan-lichtsteiner-appeared-sadio-13793527
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 9,869

    I can't get the feeling out of my head that the ultimate Democrat nominee isn't yet being seriously talked about.

    Anyway, I'm continuing to lay the favourites. I'm not at all sure that anyone should be under 10 yet.

    All they really need is somebody who doesn't have some dodgy background, isn't totally obsessed with SJW nonsense and talks a vague amount of sense. It can't be that hard, surely.
    You said the same thing about the Republicans four years ago and they weren't listening either.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 31,788
    edited January 4
    TOPPING said:

    I'm listening to the Serial podcast atm. They focus on Cleveland, OH and follow events in the courthouse. Fascinating. Talk about demographic disconnect.
    I listened to that over Christmas. It is quite interesting, however the presenter loses all sense of balance by the end (in the same way as she fell for Adnan in season 1).

    She tries to excuse away a guy who was a gang member, got caught for an armed robbery, turned informant, but then while in juvenile prison spent the whole time fighting, ordered a hit on another prisoner, etc etc etc.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 48,984
    edited January 4
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yet another OGH anti Bernie thread.

    The fact remains Iowa and New Hampshire still vote first before other states and Sanders won New Hampshire in 2016 and lost Iowa by less than 1%. If he wins both he will almost certainly be nominee as all the momentum will be his, no candidate in post war history has won Iowa and New Hampshire and failed to be nominee.

    As for Harris she is yet another California coastal liberal who would lose the rustbelt and the Electoral College, little better than Warren. O'Rourke really needed to have beaten Cruz not lost to have a chance

    I blame Bernie for President Trump
    He clearly didn't help Clinton's cause, but if you can only win if your primary opponents don't attack you (fairly or unfairly), then you shouldn't be the candidate.

    I do blame him for tolerating misogyny in his campaign. But so will rather a lot of Democrats, so what goes around...
    Quite, Trump was attacked plenty in the primaries and it didn't affect him too much. Here's a classic rally from that campaign.

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 9,809

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Miles too slow, like Hawkeye goal line tech in the game last night...

    Hawkeye was fine last night, the ref knew straight-away that it wasn't a goal. What's the problem?
    Can anyone explain why Greater Manchester's Anthony Taylor didn't send off Vincent Kompany for his off the floor assault on Mohamed Salah?
    If it wasn't a red for serious foul play, I think it was for denying a clear and obvious goal scoring opportunity.

    But then Mane got away with his assault on Lichtsteiner, so I don't have that much sympathy.
    Lichtsteiner elbowed Mané in the build up to that innocent, Sadio was just defending himself from further aggression.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/news/what-stephan-lichtsteiner-appeared-sadio-13793527
    Fake news. I had a great view of the first incident and Lichtsteiner did no such thing. That the FA are tolerating thuggery from Liverpool players is despicable.
  • I think every 'fact' in this tweet is an easily provable lie

  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,146
    edited January 4
    Bernie really showed up Hillary's weakness as a candidate before she lost to Trump.

    Don't shoot the messenger, honestly. The reason the Bernie Bros hated Hillary is the same reason she lost the rust belt.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 31,788

    I can't get the feeling out of my head that the ultimate Democrat nominee isn't yet being seriously talked about.

    Anyway, I'm continuing to lay the favourites. I'm not at all sure that anyone should be under 10 yet.

    All they really need is somebody who doesn't have some dodgy background, isn't totally obsessed with SJW nonsense and talks a vague amount of sense. It can't be that hard, surely.
    You said the same thing about the Republicans four years ago and they weren't listening either.
    Did I, I don't remember saying that.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 9,785
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yet another OGH anti Bernie thread.

    The fact remains Iowa and New Hampshire still vote first before other states and Sanders won New Hampshire in 2016 and lost Iowa by less than 1%. If he wins both he will almost certainly be nominee as all the momentum will be his, no candidate in post war history has won Iowa and New Hampshire and failed to be nominee.

    As for Harris she is yet another California coastal liberal who would lose the rustbelt and the Electoral College, little better than Warren. O'Rourke really needed to have beaten Cruz not lost to have a chance

    I blame Bernie for President Trump
    He clearly didn't help Clinton's cause, but if you can only win if your primary opponents don't attack you (fairly or unfairly), then you shouldn't be the candidate.

    I do blame him for tolerating misogyny in his campaign. But so will rather a lot of Democrats, so what goes around...
    What Dems should be narked off about is the way he kept pretending he was still in it after he'd been mathematically eliminated and fed this whole "we woz robbed" narrative to keep getting money and attention. Not something Hilary would be in a position to complain about though...
  • tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Miles too slow, like Hawkeye goal line tech in the game last night...

    Hawkeye was fine last night, the ref knew straight-away that it wasn't a goal. What's the problem?
    Can anyone explain why Greater Manchester's Anthony Taylor didn't send off Vincent Kompany for his off the floor assault on Mohamed Salah?
    If it wasn't a red for serious foul play, I think it was for denying a clear and obvious goal scoring opportunity.

    But then Mane got away with his assault on Lichtsteiner, so I don't have that much sympathy.
    Lichtsteiner elbowed Mané in the build up to that innocent, Sadio was just defending himself from further aggression.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/news/what-stephan-lichtsteiner-appeared-sadio-13793527
    Fake news. I had a great view of the first incident and Lichtsteiner did no such thing. That the FA are tolerating thuggery from Liverpool players is despicable.
    We're top of the fair play league.

    http://www.thefa.com/football-rules-governance/discipline/fairplay
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 9,869

    I can't get the feeling out of my head that the ultimate Democrat nominee isn't yet being seriously talked about.

    Anyway, I'm continuing to lay the favourites. I'm not at all sure that anyone should be under 10 yet.

    All they really need is somebody who doesn't have some dodgy background, isn't totally obsessed with SJW nonsense and talks a vague amount of sense. It can't be that hard, surely.
    You said the same thing about the Republicans four years ago and they weren't listening either.
    Did I, I don't remember saying that.
    Play along for the joke. Whoever said it, the GOP clearly did not pick a candidate "who doesn't have some dodgy background ... and talks a vague amount of sense."
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 9,287

    I think every 'fact' in this tweet is an easily provable lie

    Not that it matters. As Pelosi has made clear, they are not going to attempt impeachment unless Mueller makes it a bipartisan inevitability.
    They are going to hassle the hell out of him with investigations and subpoenas.

    I suspect the next couple of years will be rather less fun for him than the last two.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,146

    I think every 'fact' in this tweet is an easily provable lie

    On a point of order, he does not say that *he* is that President.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 9,287

    tlg86 said:

    Miles too slow, like Hawkeye goal line tech in the game last night...

    Hawkeye was fine last night, the ref knew straight-away that it wasn't a goal. What's the problem?
    Can anyone explain why Greater Manchester's Anthony Taylor didn't send off Vincent Kompany for his off the floor assault on Mohamed Salah?
    Can anyone explain why Yorkshire's TSE is bothered about the result of a match between two teams from the other side of the Pennines?
    Rootless cosmopolitanism... ?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 48,984
    edited January 4

    I can't get the feeling out of my head that the ultimate Democrat nominee isn't yet being seriously talked about.

    Anyway, I'm continuing to lay the favourites. I'm not at all sure that anyone should be under 10 yet.

    The most baffling odds are on the GOP side - Nikki Hayley at ~ 13-1 for the nomination ?!
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 22,536
    It's noteworthy that Donald Trump is openly canvassing the possibility of impeachment. We can therefore assume that there's more damning evidence coming shortly.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,146
    edited January 4
    Nigelb said:

    I think every 'fact' in this tweet is an easily provable lie

    Not that it matters. As Pelosi has made clear, they are not going to attempt impeachment unless Mueller makes it a bipartisan inevitability.
    They are going to hassle the hell out of him with investigations and subpoenas.

    I suspect the next couple of years will be rather less fun for him than the last two.
    Mueller doesn't want to impeach Trump, Mueller wants to keep him in office, paranoid and frightened and slowly losing his mind, as one by one his vast empire of corruption gets picked apart around him, quietly building a watertight case against Trump only for when he leaves office.

    In the meantime, when Mueller comes for Junior, the meltdown from Toadus will be a joyous spectacle to behold.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 16,035

    TOPPING said:

    I'm listening to the Serial podcast atm. They focus on Cleveland, OH and follow events in the courthouse. Fascinating. Talk about demographic disconnect.
    I listened to that over Christmas. It is quite interesting, however the presenter loses all sense of balance by the end (in the same way as she fell for Adnan in season 1).

    She tries to excuse away a guy who was a gang member, got caught for an armed robbery, turned informant, but then while in juvenile prison spent the whole time fighting, ordered a hit on another prisoner, etc etc etc.
    Yep she is quite indulgent about some of her interviewees. Adnan? Isn't he due for a retrial?
  • tlg86 said:

    Miles too slow, like Hawkeye goal line tech in the game last night...

    Hawkeye was fine last night, the ref knew straight-away that it wasn't a goal. What's the problem?
    Can anyone explain why Greater Manchester's Anthony Taylor didn't send off Vincent Kompany for his off the floor assault on Mohamed Salah?
    Can anyone explain why Yorkshire's TSE is bothered about the result of a match between two teams from the other side of the Pennines?
    As a child of the 80s there was only one team on the telly in 80s so I naturally gravitated to Liverpool, plus my father was a fan as well.

    Given my heritage I wasn't allowed to go to football grounds in the 80s, as they weren't very welcoming.

    You can change your job, you can change your name, you change your house, you can even change your wife and your gender, but you can never change the football team you support.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 31,788
    edited January 4
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    I'm listening to the Serial podcast atm. They focus on Cleveland, OH and follow events in the courthouse. Fascinating. Talk about demographic disconnect.
    I listened to that over Christmas. It is quite interesting, however the presenter loses all sense of balance by the end (in the same way as she fell for Adnan in season 1).

    She tries to excuse away a guy who was a gang member, got caught for an armed robbery, turned informant, but then while in juvenile prison spent the whole time fighting, ordered a hit on another prisoner, etc etc etc.
    Yep she is quite indulgent about some of her interviewees. Adnan? Isn't he due for a retrial?
    Now that the petition has been granted, it means Syed's case “will stay in limbo for at least another year and a half”, says Rolling Stone.

    The magazine says oral arguments before the Court of Appeals will be scheduled for November or December, and a final decision will be delivered no later than 31 August 2019.

    https://www.theweek.co.uk/61705/serial-where-is-adnan-syed-now

    I have my own theory on that case, but I wouldn't post it on here, because I don't fancy getting sued.
  • Nigelb said:

    tlg86 said:

    Miles too slow, like Hawkeye goal line tech in the game last night...

    Hawkeye was fine last night, the ref knew straight-away that it wasn't a goal. What's the problem?
    Can anyone explain why Greater Manchester's Anthony Taylor didn't send off Vincent Kompany for his off the floor assault on Mohamed Salah?
    Can anyone explain why Yorkshire's TSE is bothered about the result of a match between two teams from the other side of the Pennines?
    Rootless cosmopolitanism... ?
    That too.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,146

    Nigelb said:

    tlg86 said:

    Miles too slow, like Hawkeye goal line tech in the game last night...

    Hawkeye was fine last night, the ref knew straight-away that it wasn't a goal. What's the problem?
    Can anyone explain why Greater Manchester's Anthony Taylor didn't send off Vincent Kompany for his off the floor assault on Mohamed Salah?
    Can anyone explain why Yorkshire's TSE is bothered about the result of a match between two teams from the other side of the Pennines?
    Rootless cosmopolitanism... ?
    That too.
    I'm a citizen of nowhere.

    I wouldn't recommend it, the nightlife is shit.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 21,378

    I reckon this just makes Iowa more important. Whoever wins there gets several days of good media just as Californian postal voters get their ballots.

    Iowa will be a good test of ground ops - I reckon Beto could do well there and I see Warren performing well in New Hampshire because it borders on to Massachusetts
    The same reasoning favours KLOBUCHAR in Iowa: She's right next door, her style is tuned to the area, some Iowans will already have Minnesotan telly.
    why do you always capitalise her name?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 31,788
    Jeremy Corbyn applauds speaker at conference who demanded the 'dismantlement' of the state of Israael

    Archive footage has emerged of Corbyn at a conference in London in 2011

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6557605/Corbyn-applauds-speaker-conference-demanded-dismantlement-state-Israel.html
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 9,785
    Charles said:

    I reckon this just makes Iowa more important. Whoever wins there gets several days of good media just as Californian postal voters get their ballots.

    Iowa will be a good test of ground ops - I reckon Beto could do well there and I see Warren performing well in New Hampshire because it borders on to Massachusetts
    The same reasoning favours KLOBUCHAR in Iowa: She's right next door, her style is tuned to the area, some Iowans will already have Minnesotan telly.
    why do you always capitalise her name?
    Who, KLOBUCHAR?
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,146
    edited January 4

    Charles said:

    I reckon this just makes Iowa more important. Whoever wins there gets several days of good media just as Californian postal voters get their ballots.

    Iowa will be a good test of ground ops - I reckon Beto could do well there and I see Warren performing well in New Hampshire because it borders on to Massachusetts
    The same reasoning favours KLOBUCHAR in Iowa: She's right next door, her style is tuned to the area, some Iowans will already have Minnesotan telly.
    why do you always capitalise her name?
    Who, KLOBUCHAR?
    That's the preferred style in the original Klingon.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 7,187

    tlg86 said:

    Miles too slow, like Hawkeye goal line tech in the game last night...

    Hawkeye was fine last night, the ref knew straight-away that it wasn't a goal. What's the problem?
    Can anyone explain why Greater Manchester's Anthony Taylor didn't send off Vincent Kompany for his off the floor assault on Mohamed Salah?
    Can anyone explain why Yorkshire's TSE is bothered about the result of a match between two teams from the other side of the Pennines?
    As a child of the 80s there was only one team on the telly in 80s so I naturally gravitated to Liverpool, plus my father was a fan as well.

    Given my heritage I wasn't allowed to go to football grounds in the 80s, as they weren't very welcoming.

    You can change your job, you can change your name, you change your house, you can even change your wife and your gender, but you can never change the football team you support.
    To summarise: Glory Hunter
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 3,143

    Jeremy Corbyn applauds speaker at conference who demanded the 'dismantlement' of the state of Israael

    Archive footage has emerged of Corbyn at a conference in London in 2011

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6557605/Corbyn-applauds-speaker-conference-demanded-dismantlement-state-Israel.html

    This is not news.
    We know that Corbyn has always been, and likely remains, an anti-Zionist.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 21,378

    I think every 'fact' in this tweet is an easily provable lie

    A. "The same way that you impeach any President"
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,146

    Jeremy Corbyn applauds speaker at conference who demanded the 'dismantlement' of the state of Israael

    Archive footage has emerged of Corbyn at a conference in London in 2011

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6557605/Corbyn-applauds-speaker-conference-demanded-dismantlement-state-Israel.html

    Jeremy Corbyn applauding a JEW?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 31,788
    edited January 4

    Jeremy Corbyn applauds speaker at conference who demanded the 'dismantlement' of the state of Israael

    Archive footage has emerged of Corbyn at a conference in London in 2011

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6557605/Corbyn-applauds-speaker-conference-demanded-dismantlement-state-Israel.html

    Jeremy Corbyn applauding a JEW?
    He only likes the loony commie ones that hate everything about Israel.

    Its a bit like saying, I'm not a racist, because I always cheer for the England football team and they have Dele Alli playing for them.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 21,378

    Charles said:

    I reckon this just makes Iowa more important. Whoever wins there gets several days of good media just as Californian postal voters get their ballots.

    Iowa will be a good test of ground ops - I reckon Beto could do well there and I see Warren performing well in New Hampshire because it borders on to Massachusetts
    The same reasoning favours KLOBUCHAR in Iowa: She's right next door, her style is tuned to the area, some Iowans will already have Minnesotan telly.
    why do you always capitalise her name?
    Who, KLOBUCHAR?
    YES!
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 9,785
    Charles said:


    YES!

    I thought that was who you meant. KLOBUCHAR.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 48,984
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    I reckon this just makes Iowa more important. Whoever wins there gets several days of good media just as Californian postal voters get their ballots.

    Iowa will be a good test of ground ops - I reckon Beto could do well there and I see Warren performing well in New Hampshire because it borders on to Massachusetts
    The same reasoning favours KLOBUCHAR in Iowa: She's right next door, her style is tuned to the area, some Iowans will already have Minnesotan telly.
    why do you always capitalise her name?
    Who, KLOBUCHAR?
    YES!
    Standard betting shorthand to capitalise your NAP !
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 9,287

    Nigelb said:

    tlg86 said:

    Miles too slow, like Hawkeye goal line tech in the game last night...

    Hawkeye was fine last night, the ref knew straight-away that it wasn't a goal. What's the problem?
    Can anyone explain why Greater Manchester's Anthony Taylor didn't send off Vincent Kompany for his off the floor assault on Mohamed Salah?
    Can anyone explain why Yorkshire's TSE is bothered about the result of a match between two teams from the other side of the Pennines?
    Rootless cosmopolitanism... ?
    That too.
    :smile:
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 16,035

    Jeremy Corbyn applauds speaker at conference who demanded the 'dismantlement' of the state of Israael

    Archive footage has emerged of Corbyn at a conference in London in 2011

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6557605/Corbyn-applauds-speaker-conference-demanded-dismantlement-state-Israel.html

    It's absolutely fine. Jeremy Corbyn-supporting definitely not anti-semites have assured us that "dismantling" does not necessarily mean killing everyone in that State.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,146
    edited January 4
    So, I just watched the clip.

    The Rabbi appears to be asking for a settlement where Jews and Arabs can live together in peace and harmony.

    And Jeremy Corbyn applauds it! THE ABSOLUTE MONSTER.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 5,936
    Charles said:

    I think every 'fact' in this tweet is an easily provable lie

    A. "The same way that you impeach any President"
    Surely Trump is already there? Orange in colour and has a thin skin..... oh... impeached.

    Sorry .....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 9,287

    Nigelb said:

    I think every 'fact' in this tweet is an easily provable lie

    Not that it matters. As Pelosi has made clear, they are not going to attempt impeachment unless Mueller makes it a bipartisan inevitability.
    They are going to hassle the hell out of him with investigations and subpoenas.

    I suspect the next couple of years will be rather less fun for him than the last two.
    Mueller doesn't want to impeach Trump...
    Of course not. Being the utter professional that he is, he'll be well aware that is not his job.

    And I'm sure he'll take the utmost care before indicting him.

  • Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    tlg86 said:

    Miles too slow, like Hawkeye goal line tech in the game last night...

    Hawkeye was fine last night, the ref knew straight-away that it wasn't a goal. What's the problem?
    Can anyone explain why Greater Manchester's Anthony Taylor didn't send off Vincent Kompany for his off the floor assault on Mohamed Salah?
    Can anyone explain why Yorkshire's TSE is bothered about the result of a match between two teams from the other side of the Pennines?
    Rootless cosmopolitanism... ?
    That too.
    :smile:
    I must be the only person to be a member of both YCCC and LCCC.

    Joined the latter to get tickets for England matches.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 9,287

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    tlg86 said:

    Miles too slow, like Hawkeye goal line tech in the game last night...

    Hawkeye was fine last night, the ref knew straight-away that it wasn't a goal. What's the problem?
    Can anyone explain why Greater Manchester's Anthony Taylor didn't send off Vincent Kompany for his off the floor assault on Mohamed Salah?
    Can anyone explain why Yorkshire's TSE is bothered about the result of a match between two teams from the other side of the Pennines?
    Rootless cosmopolitanism... ?
    That too.
    :smile:
    I must be the only person to be a member of both YCCC and LCCC.

    Joined the latter to get tickets for England matches.
    An unimpeachable motivation.

    On the subject of YCCC, have you noted what the guy who averaged around 14 for them is currently doing in Australia... ?
  • Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    tlg86 said:

    Miles too slow, like Hawkeye goal line tech in the game last night...

    Hawkeye was fine last night, the ref knew straight-away that it wasn't a goal. What's the problem?
    Can anyone explain why Greater Manchester's Anthony Taylor didn't send off Vincent Kompany for his off the floor assault on Mohamed Salah?
    Can anyone explain why Yorkshire's TSE is bothered about the result of a match between two teams from the other side of the Pennines?
    Rootless cosmopolitanism... ?
    That too.
    :smile:
    I must be the only person to be a member of both YCCC and LCCC.

    Joined the latter to get tickets for England matches.
    An unimpeachable motivation.

    On the subject of YCCC, have you noted what the guy who averaged around 14 for them is currently doing in Australia... ?
    Yah. Shows how rubbish Australian cricket is when they aren’t allowed to ball tamper.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 671
    Charles said:

    why do you always capitalise her name?

    That threw me the first time. KLOBUCHAR. I thought it was a new and intriguingly long acronym. I actually spent a fair amount of time trying to solve it. Still, there are worse ways to spend your time.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 9,287

    Charles said:


    YES!

    I thought that was who you meant. KLOBUCHAR.
    Gesundheit.
  • Pulpstar said:



    Standard betting shorthand to capitalise your NAP !

    So, I just watched the clip.

    The Rabbi appears to be asking for a settlement where Jews and Arabs can live together in peace and harmony.

    And Jeremy Corbyn applauds it! THE ABSOLUTE MONSTER.

    Where's that running?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 16,469
    Off topic.

    It has been interesting reading the comments from all sides this morning regarding the No Dealers. Those of us who are, at least somewhat, averse to No Deal are in great danger of making the same mistake as was superbly illustrated in last night's fascinating programme on the Waco Siege.

    Whilst the FBI response was dangerously split between those who wanted to negotiate the Davidians out and those who wanted to force an end to the siege, both parts of the FBI response made a fundamental error in believing that the Davidians would behave rationally and would in the end choose surrender over death. Even as the building burned around them they chose not to walk out, something that left the FBI teams dumbfounded.

    It is not as if they had not been warned of this with professors with expertise in religious doomsday cults doing everything they could to persuade the FBI to change their tack.

    Whilst I don't necessarily believe the doomsday scenarios about Brexit, I do think a negotiated settlement is far better but I do fear that the Remainers and Dealers are currently in denial about the unruffled fanaticism of the No Dealers.

    It was a remarkable programme by the way. Well worth watching if you get the chance. The certainty of the Branch Davidians even today is utterly chilling.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 13,238
    How come thirteen people applied online to divorce their partners on Christmas Day, (according to government figures)?

    Surely should have been 12 or 14!
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 9,785
    Kos running a hit job on Biden:

    https://m.dailykos.com/stories/1822993
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 48,984

    Pulpstar said:



    Standard betting shorthand to capitalise your NAP !

    So, I just watched the clip.

    The Rabbi appears to be asking for a settlement where Jews and Arabs can live together in peace and harmony.

    And Jeremy Corbyn applauds it! THE ABSOLUTE MONSTER.

    Where's that running?
    7-1 against, probable runner if the early May stakes are ran. Good value if the race is run but 'THE SAJ' is attracting ante-post interest too.
  • How come thirteen people applied online to divorce their partners on Christmas Day, (according to government figures)?

    Surely should have been 12 or 14!

    Legal polygamy?
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 5,936

    Off topic.

    It has been interesting reading the comments from all sides this morning regarding the No Dealers.
    ...
    Whilst I don't necessarily believe the doomsday scenarios about Brexit, I do think a negotiated settlement is far better but I do fear that the Remainers and Dealers are currently in denial about the unruffled fanaticism of the No Dealers.

    I suspect that tin-eared Tess will take us over the edge. I am resigned to No-Deal Brexit happening.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 16,035

    Off topic.

    It has been interesting reading the comments from all sides this morning regarding the No Dealers. Those of us who are, at least somewhat, averse to No Deal are in great danger of making the same mistake as was superbly illustrated in last night's fascinating programme on the Waco Siege.

    Whilst the FBI response was dangerously split between those who wanted to negotiate the Davidians out and those who wanted to force an end to the siege, both parts of the FBI response made a fundamental error in believing that the Davidians would behave rationally and would in the end choose surrender over death. Even as the building burned around them they chose not to walk out, something that left the FBI teams dumbfounded.

    It is not as if they had not been warned of this with professors with expertise in religious doomsday cults doing everything they could to persuade the FBI to change their tack.

    Whilst I don't necessarily believe the doomsday scenarios about Brexit, I do think a negotiated settlement is far better but I do fear that the Remainers and Dealers are currently in denial about the unruffled fanaticism of the No Dealers.

    It was a remarkable programme by the way. Well worth watching if you get the chance. The certainty of the Branch Davidians even today is utterly chilling.

    Always on the lookout for good documentaries so will def watch, thanks.

    As for no dealers, no. No one is under or overestimating them. They are bonkers and morons. Not in that order necessarily. I have no doubt that they will cut off their noses to spite their faces and let the dust settle around them as they declare victory.

    The big challenge, it was put to me by someone who knows, was to allow the no dealers the opportunity to change their minds in an "honourable" way so that they don't lose face. I'm not sure that this has happened but I expect the narrative to build whereby such an excuse can be found.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 1,852

    tlg86 said:

    Miles too slow, like Hawkeye goal line tech in the game last night...

    Hawkeye was fine last night, the ref knew straight-away that it wasn't a goal. What's the problem?
    Can anyone explain why Greater Manchester's Anthony Taylor didn't send off Vincent Kompany for his off the floor assault on Mohamed Salah?
    Possibly because refs are not as one-eyed as Liverpool fans. If we hadn't had technology every Liverpool fan would be claiming that ball was over the line in tStones incident just as they keep telling us they would have beaten City last year instead of losing 5-0 if Mane hadn't been sent off.

    All football fans are biased but Liverpool fans are truly the most delusional.

This discussion has been closed.