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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Loose change. The MPs who Theresa May needs to get on board

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited January 5 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Loose change. The MPs who Theresa May needs to get on board

NEW: Theresa May's allies privately concede they are on course to lose the meaningful vote due 12 days from now. Senior Tories are gaming a second vote or another delay. Downing Street insider: “If we have to have the vote 30 times, we will" https://t.co/1VcGLtfnJl

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • RobDRobD Posts: 35,302
    First. As usual, thanks for the header Alastair.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 1,755
    edited January 5
    First - no third. One might feel sorry for Mrs May, except that she is such an obstinate woman.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 35,302
    edited January 5
    PClipp said:

    First

    Fake News :D
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 9,785
    edited January 5
    antifrank said:

    So Theresa May’s best, though poor, chance of salvaging her deal looks to be by getting the acquiescence of substantial numbers of Remainers outsider her party. However, all her efforts seem to be being put into what looks like the futile task of placating Leavers. She clearly needs to produce a rabbit from a hat. But right now she seems to be looking in the wrong hat.

    TMay's main superpower seems to be her command of the David Brent Maneuvre, where she creates the uncomfortable situation that her party demands then stretches the moment out until well beyond the point where everyone is feeling the discomfort. They're not going to like it when she starts looking in the right hat, because the people whose votes she needs are going to want concessions, but if she's going to do it, you'd expect her to David Brent things out for a while longer before she does it.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 9,785
    BTW I don't have a strong opinion on this but would be really interesting to hear from the people who have said they think the deal will eventually go through - Nick Palmer and David Herdson spring to mind - on which of these groups they think TMay will flip.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 2,109

    BTW I don't have a strong opinion on this but would be really interesting to hear from the people who have said they think the deal will eventually go through - Nick Palmer and David Herdson spring to mind - on which of these groups they think TMay will flip.

    I wouldn't rule it out but I can't figure out a way that seems likely to me.

    The current Tory rebellion means it requires decent opposition numbers. The minor parties all seem strongly against it so presumably Labour MPs would be needed to make the difference. It seems unlikely Corbyn would do anything but oppose and whip the party to oppose.

    It seems the most likely route to the deal passing but without a substantial drop in the Tory rebellion is it requires large numbers of Labour MPs to vote against the party, their constituency members and their voters.

    Anti Corbyn MPs, who I think are assumed to be the easiest to get to vote for the deal may have some opposition in their constituency already, when you have someone like Blair against it from the other side of the party starts to cut down the numbers that would support an MP voting for the deal. They would be sticking their necks (in job terms) out very far indeed for the deal.

    This for a deal that they can't stand to begin with being pushed by a prime minister trying to run the clock down and use blackmail on them.

    Although I do see this as more realistic than a huge reduction in the Tory rebellion it is asking a lot of a large number of Labour MPs to overcome all that and vote for it. Blackmail fails sometimes.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 9,785
    edited January 5


    I wouldn't rule it out but I can't figure out a way that seems likely to me.

    The current Tory rebellion means it requires decent opposition numbers. The minor parties all seem strongly against it so presumably Labour MPs would be needed to make the difference. It seems unlikely Corbyn would do anything but oppose and whip the party to oppose.

    It seems the most likely route to the deal passing but without a substantial drop in the Tory rebellion is it requires large numbers of Labour MPs to vote against the party, their constituency members and their voters.

    Anti Corbyn MPs, who I think are assumed to be the easiest to get to vote for the deal may have some opposition in their constituency already, when you have someone like Blair against it from the other side of the party starts to cut down the numbers that would support an MP voting for the deal. They would be sticking their necks (in job terms) out very far indeed for the deal.

    This for a deal that they can't stand to begin with being pushed by a prime minister trying to run the clock down and use blackmail on them.

    Although I do see this as more realistic than a huge reduction in the Tory rebellion it is asking a lot of a large number of Labour MPs to overcome all that and vote for it. Blackmail fails sometimes.

    What's interesting about this is that there are two different ways of doing predictions: One is that you look at the specific levers and pulleys and try to work out what's going to happen when you drill the hole that holds the ring that drives the rod that turns the knob that works the thing-ummy bob. The other is to look at the big picture and say things like, "this is the outcome that the relevant people want, this is the outcome they don't want, presumably they'll work out a way to get what they want".

    On the big picture, the PM, businesses, trade unions and maybe 80% of MPs think the deal would be better than No Deal. But when you look at the actual mechanism, everything seems to be pointing to the deal going down, repeatedly, until you run out of time.

    I guess the problem I have with the Big Picture take in this case is that it would just as well predict Brexit not happening at all.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 10,267
    Dumb dangerous way to run the country Theresa.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 12,971
    edited January 5
    Good analysis.

    There is little in Alastair's lead that shouldn't have been obvious to the PM from the beginning. Yet if she ever had a strategy for assembling a majority for her deal, it has never been apparent. So she is left merely with tactics.

    The lead also demonstrates why it is the Tory leavers who are her essential problem. Not least to the credibility of the whole project.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 32,146
    Interesting:



    I suppose May would be 'Clever and Diligent' - so General Staff, not Leadership material.

    Davis is clearly 'Stupid and Lazy' - one of the great majority.

    If Boris were 'Clever and Lazy' that would say he was destined for great things - but I suspect he's more 'articulate and fluent' than 'clever'.

    Who are the really dangerous ones - 'Stupid and Diligent'? Corbyn? He certainly hasn't wavered in his world view....
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,202
    edited January 5
    Shows the wisdom of ignoring all opposition opinion for two years (in the national interest) then coming begging to the same people (in, erm, the national interest) when her own side have decided they like Brexit in theory but not in practice.

    Zero incentive for the opposition to give her time of day. She is reaping exactly what she has sown. Only way I can see to get the votes she needs is 'subject to a referendum' it's the only thing that will get 100 non Tories on board. There aren't enough knighthoods that can be offered with the numbers she needs.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 24,147
    tpfkar said:

    Only way I can see to get the votes she needs is 'subject to a referendum' it's the only thing that will get 100 non Tories on board.

    The Lib Dems have already tabled an amendment to that effect, so it’s very likely to be voted on.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 5,936
    Saturday morning - and no David Herdson article?

    As for the UK, Sir Richard Mottram's famous quote seems highly applicable
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 13,238
    The noteworthy tweet is the last one; May's team confident they will win any confidence vote brought by Labour if they lose/delay the meaningful vote.

    In other words, although she can't get her flagship policy through the House, there's no alternative Government.

    I'm very doubtful as to the desirability, and even more as to the wisdom, of a second referendum, but surely the only way out of the mess is to have a new House! Postpone Article 50 for six to 12 months and have a General Election in late May or early June. It would almost be a Coupon Election; for the Deal or against it as far as the Tories area concerned, and probably for Labour as well.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 9,785
    edited January 5

    tpfkar said:

    Only way I can see to get the votes she needs is 'subject to a referendum' it's the only thing that will get 100 non Tories on board.

    The Lib Dems have already tabled an amendment to that effect, so it’s very likely to be voted on.
    I can't see a lot of Tories voting for the amendment. Their members won't like it, so why provoke them at this point? They might ultimately vote for Deal+Referendum as a package, but:

    1) First you need to vote down the deal on its own, thus proving that There Is No Alternative

    2) You need some evidence that the government would actually let Deal+Referendum happen. If they're going to squish it at some later stage, why take the hit?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 10,257
    edited January 5
    Meanwhile John Redwood tells John Humphrys he (Redwood) should be addressed as 'Sir John'.

    I've always admired his humility....



  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 15,257
    Roger said:

    Meanwhile John Redwood tells John Humphrys (in effect) he should be addressed as 'Sir John'.

    I've always admired his humility....

    Surely a graceful compliment? After all, John Humphrys should indeed have a knighthood.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 21,848
    May's Deal is Brexit.

    No Deal Brexit is Brexit.

    Inside May's head, she is going to deliver Brexit. So what flavour of Brexit do you want, Remainers? As 29th March approaches, which flavour do those Remainer MPs want to be associated with facilitating? By screaming that No Deal Brexit is so disastrous for the UK, they are rather hoist by their own petard if they then let that very thing happen. And for what? A bit of naked opportunism to get power over an apparently ravaged land?

    Fast forward to 27 March. No Deal looms as inevitable. What do you do Yvette Cooper? What do you do, Chuka Umunna? What do you do, Sarah Wollaston?
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 981
    May is obviously not a student of Churchill otherwise she would have learnt the folly of not learning from her past mistakes. For that she’ll rightly be condemned as the worst Tory PM certainly since WW2 and maybe longer.

    Her deal won’t pass because it doesn’t deserve to pass. It’s just a capitulation to EU demands for no acceptable quid pro quo whatsoever. Asking the same question when nothing has changed is always going to solicit the same answer. She is simply showing she is scared witless by the EU but holds parliament in complete contempt.
  • 1. May's deal IS Brexit as defined by the referendum question. All those people saying it isn't Brexit are stupid, disingenuous or both
    2. May's deal will not pass the current House of Commons. The alternative to the deal is not no deal as May had tried to position, but delay/revoke. In no other circumstance would any MP choose to vote for a course of action that they know would make the country worse off - only stupid Brexiteers insisting they are right and the experts wrong think we'll be better off, the majority know how bad no deal will be and they won't let it happen
    3. May's only chance of success is to bypass the MPs and go to the country. Neither an election (with her as Tory leader) nor a referendum will be popular, but she is stepping down at some point any way and has a strong sense of duty, so we may see her think "screw you" and do it anyway.
    4. She will of course be no confidenced by Tory MPs. But would remain the PM whilst they knife each other for the "prize" of being the PM to deliver Brexit.

    Fun times! A pity that I started my (brilliant) new job on Thursday and can't spend hours watching BBC Parliament eating popcorn as I could in my 10 week gap
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 981
    edited January 5

    The noteworthy tweet is the last one; May's team confident they will win any confidence vote brought by Labour if they lose/delay the meaningful vote.

    In other words, although she can't get her flagship policy through the House, there's no alternative Government.

    I'm very doubtful as to the desirability, and even more as to the wisdom, of a second referendum, but surely the only way out of the mess is to have a new House! Postpone Article 50 for six to 12 months and have a General Election in late May or early June. It would almost be a Coupon Election; for the Deal or against it as far as the Tories area concerned, and probably for Labour as well.

    We have too many domestic policies on hold for games such as this. The NHS, immigration, transport, welfare reform, defence, housing, economy particularly productivity and investment etc all stand in need of urgent action. There is no need to delay further particularly as you might get a similar result to the one you have now.

    If May’s deal won’t pass, we’ll have a no deal Brexit and get on withthe rest of our lives.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 15,257
    Surrey train stabbing: Suspect arrested
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-surrey-46768203
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 9,809
    ydoethur said:

    Surrey train stabbing: Suspect arrested
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-surrey-46768203

    Suspects.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 47,008
    Good morning, everyone.

    Good article. The deal passing is not impossible, just unlikely.

    Is there a market up on it yet?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 15,257

    Good morning, everyone.

    Good article. The deal passing is not impossible, just unlikely.

    Is there a market up on it yet?

    Just a Single Market.
  • May's Deal is Brexit.

    No Deal Brexit is Brexit.

    Inside May's head, she is going to deliver Brexit. So what flavour of Brexit do you want, Remainers? As 29th March approaches, which flavour do those Remainer MPs want to be associated with facilitating? By screaming that No Deal Brexit is so disastrous for the UK, they are rather hoist by their own petard if they then let that very thing happen. And for what? A bit of naked opportunism to get power over an apparently ravaged land?

    Fast forward to 27 March. No Deal looms as inevitable. What do you do Yvette Cooper? What do you do, Chuka Umunna? What do you do, Sarah Wollaston?

    Revoke Article 50
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 21,848

    May's Deal is Brexit.

    No Deal Brexit is Brexit.

    Inside May's head, she is going to deliver Brexit. So what flavour of Brexit do you want, Remainers? As 29th March approaches, which flavour do those Remainer MPs want to be associated with facilitating? By screaming that No Deal Brexit is so disastrous for the UK, they are rather hoist by their own petard if they then let that very thing happen. And for what? A bit of naked opportunism to get power over an apparently ravaged land?

    Fast forward to 27 March. No Deal looms as inevitable. What do you do Yvette Cooper? What do you do, Chuka Umunna? What do you do, Sarah Wollaston?

    Revoke Article 50
    Not on the table from May. It's Hard Brexit then.
  • eekeek Posts: 2,588

    The noteworthy tweet is the last one; May's team confident they will win any confidence vote brought by Labour if they lose/delay the meaningful vote.

    In other words, although she can't get her flagship policy through the House, there's no alternative Government.

    I'm very doubtful as to the desirability, and even more as to the wisdom, of a second referendum, but surely the only way out of the mess is to have a new House! Postpone Article 50 for six to 12 months and have a General Election in late May or early June. It would almost be a Coupon Election; for the Deal or against it as far as the Tories area concerned, and probably for Labour as well.

    We have too many domestic policies on hold for games such as this. The NHS, immigration, transport, welfare reform, defence, housing, economy particularly productivity and investment etc all stand in need of urgent action. There is no need to delay further particularly as you might get a similar result to the one you have now.

    If May’s deal won’t pass, we’ll have a no deal Brexit and get on withthe rest of our lives.
    If we end up with a No Deal Brexit - there won't be time to fix any of those issues. Just keeping things going will be a full time job for most ministers as possible crisis upon possible crisis is reported to them to decide upon....
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 6,220

    May's Deal is Brexit.

    No Deal Brexit is Brexit.

    Inside May's head, she is going to deliver Brexit. So what flavour of Brexit do you want, Remainers? As 29th March approaches, which flavour do those Remainer MPs want to be associated with facilitating? By screaming that No Deal Brexit is so disastrous for the UK, they are rather hoist by their own petard if they then let that very thing happen. And for what? A bit of naked opportunism to get power over an apparently ravaged land?

    Fast forward to 27 March. No Deal looms as inevitable. What do you do Yvette Cooper? What do you do, Chuka Umunna? What do you do, Sarah Wollaston?

    Revoke Article 50
    Not on the table from May. It's Hard Brexit then.
    Yes, I suppose so, but it is May that will carry the can for the consequences.

    It won't stick though.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 981
    eek said:

    The noteworthy tweet is the last one; May's team confident they will win any confidence vote brought by Labour if they lose/delay the meaningful vote.

    In other words, although she can't get her flagship policy through the House, there's no alternative Government.

    I'm very doubtful as to the desirability, and even more as to the wisdom, of a second referendum, but surely the only way out of the mess is to have a new House! Postpone Article 50 for six to 12 months and have a General Election in late May or early June. It would almost be a Coupon Election; for the Deal or against it as far as the Tories area concerned, and probably for Labour as well.

    We have too many domestic policies on hold for games such as this. The NHS, immigration, transport, welfare reform, defence, housing, economy particularly productivity and investment etc all stand in need of urgent action. There is no need to delay further particularly as you might get a similar result to the one you have now.

    If May’s deal won’t pass, we’ll have a no deal Brexit and get on withthe rest of our lives.
    If we end up with a No Deal Brexit - there won't be time to fix any of those issues. Just keeping things going will be a full time job for most ministers as possible crisis upon possible crisis is reported to them to decide upon....
    Maybe, maybe not. Unless we leave we’ll never find out and it’s not as though they are getting any attention now is it ? At least leaving gives them a chance of getting some overdue attention.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 21,848
    Foxy said:

    May's Deal is Brexit.

    No Deal Brexit is Brexit.

    Inside May's head, she is going to deliver Brexit. So what flavour of Brexit do you want, Remainers? As 29th March approaches, which flavour do those Remainer MPs want to be associated with facilitating? By screaming that No Deal Brexit is so disastrous for the UK, they are rather hoist by their own petard if they then let that very thing happen. And for what? A bit of naked opportunism to get power over an apparently ravaged land?

    Fast forward to 27 March. No Deal looms as inevitable. What do you do Yvette Cooper? What do you do, Chuka Umunna? What do you do, Sarah Wollaston?

    Revoke Article 50
    Not on the table from May. It's Hard Brexit then.
    Yes, I suppose so, but it is May that will carry the can for the consequences.

    It won't stick though.
    What won't stick? Our Leaving? Jeez, you really think that there is any appetite to go through all this shit AGAIN? The more painful that No Deal proves to be, the LESS likely it is that anyone outside the Westminster bubble will want to pick at that EU scab any more.

    Some time shortly before 29th March, Remain Fantasists need to let go of their fantasy. It's not happening. Stop being the toddler in the supermarket aisle having a screaming fit because they can't have chocolate for dinner - and decide which type of vegetables they want with their chicken. They can either have a role in the choice - or risk getting sprouts with every meal. For ever.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 2,654

    May's Deal is Brexit.

    No Deal Brexit is Brexit.

    Inside May's head, she is going to deliver Brexit. So what flavour of Brexit do you want, Remainers? As 29th March approaches, which flavour do those Remainer MPs want to be associated with facilitating? By screaming that No Deal Brexit is so disastrous for the UK, they are rather hoist by their own petard if they then let that very thing happen. And for what? A bit of naked opportunism to get power over an apparently ravaged land?

    Fast forward to 27 March. No Deal looms as inevitable. What do you do Yvette Cooper? What do you do, Chuka Umunna? What do you do, Sarah Wollaston?

    Your dichotomy is, what political theorists would describe as, 'balls'. May will delay A50 and do a second referendum before she does 'vigorously managed WTO Brexit'.

    She has dissembled too many times for anyone to take her threat of this deal or no deal seriously.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 7,887
    Pulpstar said:


    I say this as a good sized mortgage holder, but banks are currently underappreciating the risk of mortgages against residential property and are way too cautious with other asset classes.

    [...]

    My friend can't borrow 50k for some agricultural land but they were quite willing to give her 200+ for a house !

    Residential property risk depends entirely on the Loan to Value. Moderate LTVs are very safe bets: they can come after your income first and a property that easily can be sold for more than the mortgage amount second.

    Small businesses get a raw deal from banks in general. Retail is commodity and corporates have buying power.
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 443

    Foxy said:

    May's Deal is Brexit.

    No Deal Brexit is Brexit.

    Inside May's head, she is going to deliver Brexit. So what flavour of Brexit do you want, Remainers? As 29th March approaches, which flavour do those Remainer MPs want to be associated with facilitating? By screaming that No Deal Brexit is so disastrous for the UK, they are rather hoist by their own petard if they then let that very thing happen. And for what? A bit of naked opportunism to get power over an apparently ravaged land?

    Fast forward to 27 March. No Deal looms as inevitable. What do you do Yvette Cooper? What do you do, Chuka Umunna? What do you do, Sarah Wollaston?

    Revoke Article 50
    Not on the table from May. It's Hard Brexit then.
    Yes, I suppose so, but it is May that will carry the can for the consequences.

    It won't stick though.
    What won't stick? Our Leaving? Jeez, you really think that there is any appetite to go through all this shit AGAIN? The more painful that No Deal proves to be, the LESS likely it is that anyone outside the Westminster bubble will want to pick at that EU scab any more.

    Some time shortly before 29th March, Remain Fantasists need to let go of their fantasy. It's not happening. Stop being the toddler in the supermarket aisle having a screaming fit because they can't have chocolate for dinner - and decide which type of vegetables they want with their chicken. They can either have a role in the choice - or risk getting sprouts with every meal. For ever.
    I'm reconciled to leaving And spending the next twenty years making sure that the brexiteers pay for it. An end to the triple lock and factory closures up north would be a good start. Brexiteers have assured us that any price will be fine to leave. Let's make sure they pay it.
  • An obvious way for the deal to pass would be for Labour to adopt "a plague on all your houses" approach and adopt the position of abstention. Theresa May would then get her deal through and Labour could sit back and hope everything goes pear shape.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 48,984


    I wouldn't rule it out but I can't figure out a way that seems likely to me.

    The current Tory rebellion means it requires decent opposition numbers. The minor parties all seem strongly against it so presumably Labour MPs would be needed to make the difference. It seems unlikely Corbyn would do anything but oppose and whip the party to oppose.

    It seems the most likely route to the deal passing but without a substantial drop in the Tory rebellion is it requires large numbers of Labour MPs to vote against the party, their constituency members and their voters.

    Anti Corbyn MPs, who I think are assumed to be the easiest to get to vote for the deal may have some opposition in their constituency already, when you have someone like Blair against it from the other side of the party starts to cut down the numbers that would support an MP voting for the deal. They would be sticking their necks (in job terms) out very far indeed for the deal.

    This for a deal that they can't stand to begin with being pushed by a prime minister trying to run the clock down and use blackmail on them.

    Although I do see this as more realistic than a huge reduction in the Tory rebellion it is asking a lot of a large number of Labour MPs to overcome all that and vote for it. Blackmail fails sometimes.

    What's interesting about this is that there are two different ways of doing predictions: One is that you look at the specific levers and pulleys and try to work out what's going to happen when you drill the hole that holds the ring that drives the rod that turns the knob that works the thing-ummy bob. The other is to look at the big picture and say things like, "this is the outcome that the relevant people want, this is the outcome they don't want, presumably they'll work out a way to get what they want".

    On the big picture, the PM, businesses, trade unions and maybe 80% of MPs think the deal would be better than No Deal. But when you look at the actual mechanism, everything seems to be pointing to the deal going down, repeatedly, until you run out of time.

    I guess the problem I have with the Big Picture take in this case is that it would just as well predict Brexit not happening at all.
    There is always the third method of prediction - wishful thinking.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 21,378

    BTW I don't have a strong opinion on this but would be really interesting to hear from the people who have said they think the deal will eventually go through - Nick Palmer and David Herdson spring to mind - on which of these groups they think TMay will flip.

    Some from all of them
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 10,267
    At some point, perhaps, the government will get that people don’t want the deal. All the procedural tricks, arm twisting and blackmail isn’t winning hearts or minds.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 1,357
    Fenman said:



    I'm reconciled to leaving And spending the next twenty years making sure that the brexiteers pay for it. An end to the triple lock and factory closures up north would be a good start. Brexiteers have assured us that any price will be fine to leave. Let's make sure they pay it.

    An end to the triple lock and an end to factory closures up north would both be excellent policy outcomes.

    Re the latter, note that the timing of deindustrialisation of the UK's manufacturing heartlands and the development of a chronic balance of payments deficit in manufactured goods with the rest of Europe took place during our period of EU membership.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 1,357
    Jonathan said:

    At some point, perhaps, the government will get that people don’t want the deal. All the procedural tricks, arm twisting and blackmail isn’t winning hearts or minds.

    Hopefully sooner rather than later, because at least the government might then cease the endless propaganda aimed at dissuading its MPs from supporting a World Trade Brexit, on top of the increasingly ludicrous scare stories of the Remain campaign.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 21,848
    edited January 5
    Dura_Ace said:

    May's Deal is Brexit.

    No Deal Brexit is Brexit.

    Inside May's head, she is going to deliver Brexit. So what flavour of Brexit do you want, Remainers? As 29th March approaches, which flavour do those Remainer MPs want to be associated with facilitating? By screaming that No Deal Brexit is so disastrous for the UK, they are rather hoist by their own petard if they then let that very thing happen. And for what? A bit of naked opportunism to get power over an apparently ravaged land?

    Fast forward to 27 March. No Deal looms as inevitable. What do you do Yvette Cooper? What do you do, Chuka Umunna? What do you do, Sarah Wollaston?

    Your dichotomy is, what political theorists would describe as, 'balls'. May will delay A50 and do a second referendum before she does 'vigorously managed WTO Brexit'.

    She has dissembled too many times for anyone to take her threat of this deal or no deal seriously.
    May does not look like a women who is going to blink first.

    She has a job to do. Delivering Brexit. Which flavour she delivers is not down to her. Her job is done so long as she delivers Brexit. It is up to MPs to decide which.

    Her MPs had a chance to remove her. They chose not to take it.

    Article 50 delay requires a Cabinet coup. And once you've had that coup and delayed - then what? You have bought more time to do what, precisely? And at what cost to get that delay?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 6,220

    Foxy said:

    May's Deal is Brexit.

    No Deal Brexit is Brexit.

    Inside May's head, she is going to deliver Brexit. So what flavour of Brexit do you want, Remainers? As 29th March approaches, which flavour do those Remainer MPs want to be associated with facilitating? By screaming that No Deal Brexit is so disastrous for the UK, they are rather hoist by their own petard if they then let that very thing happen. And for what? A bit of naked opportunism to get power over an apparently ravaged land?

    Fast forward to 27 March. No Deal looms as inevitable. What do you do Yvette Cooper? What do you do, Chuka Umunna? What do you do, Sarah Wollaston?

    Revoke Article 50
    Not on the table from May. It's Hard Brexit then.
    Yes, I suppose so, but it is May that will carry the can for the consequences.

    It won't stick though.
    What won't stick? Our Leaving? Jeez, you really think that there is any appetite to go through all this shit AGAIN? The more painful that No Deal proves to be, the LESS likely it is that anyone outside the Westminster bubble will want to pick at that EU scab any more.

    Some time shortly before 29th March, Remain Fantasists need to let go of their fantasy. It's not happening. Stop being the toddler in the supermarket aisle having a screaming fit because they can't have chocolate for dinner - and decide which type of vegetables they want with their chicken. They can either have a role in the choice - or risk getting sprouts with every meal. For ever.
    No Deal will mean a non-Tory government fairly quickly, and that will take a more positive approach to Europe.

    If I were a Labour MP I would stick to my guns. A pM and Deal that has lost the support of about a third of its MPs cannot last.

    I would not be blackmailed.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 47,008
    Dr. Foxy, Corbyn isn't pro-EU.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 48,984
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    May's Deal is Brexit.

    No Deal Brexit is Brexit.

    Inside May's head, she is going to deliver Brexit. So what flavour of Brexit do you want, Remainers? As 29th March approaches, which flavour do those Remainer MPs want to be associated with facilitating? By screaming that No Deal Brexit is so disastrous for the UK, they are rather hoist by their own petard if they then let that very thing happen. And for what? A bit of naked opportunism to get power over an apparently ravaged land?

    Fast forward to 27 March. No Deal looms as inevitable. What do you do Yvette Cooper? What do you do, Chuka Umunna? What do you do, Sarah Wollaston?

    Revoke Article 50
    Not on the table from May. It's Hard Brexit then.
    Yes, I suppose so, but it is May that will carry the can for the consequences.

    It won't stick though.
    What won't stick? Our Leaving? Jeez, you really think that there is any appetite to go through all this shit AGAIN? The more painful that No Deal proves to be, the LESS likely it is that anyone outside the Westminster bubble will want to pick at that EU scab any more.

    Some time shortly before 29th March, Remain Fantasists need to let go of their fantasy. It's not happening. Stop being the toddler in the supermarket aisle having a screaming fit because they can't have chocolate for dinner - and decide which type of vegetables they want with their chicken. They can either have a role in the choice - or risk getting sprouts with every meal. For ever.
    No Deal will mean a non-Tory government fairly quickly, and that will take a more positive approach to Europe.

    If I were a Labour MP I would stick to my guns. A PM and Deal that has lost the support of about a third of its MPs cannot last.

    I would not be blackmailed.

    No election scheduled till 2022.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 49

    An obvious way for the deal to pass would be for Labour to adopt "a plague on all your houses" approach and adopt the position of abstention. Theresa May would then get her deal through and Labour could sit back and hope everything goes pear shape.

    Agree, though no doubt it will look messier than this. Labour's priority, as this is real politics, is for the Tories to be blamed for stuff going wrong and maximise their chances of winning a GE. TMs deal going through on Labour abstentions achieves this quite well. It also achieves JCs wish to leave, and, as will become increasingly important after 29 March (if that's the leaving date), fulfils and extinguishes the Referendum mandate, allowing thereafter open season and quite a length of transition time for anyone from WTO types to rejoiners to try their luck. Won't be boring.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 15,257
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    May's Deal is Brexit.

    No Deal Brexit is Brexit.

    Inside May's head, she is going to deliver Brexit. So what flavour of Brexit do you want, Remainers? As 29th March approaches, which flavour do those Remainer MPs want to be associated with facilitating? By screaming that No Deal Brexit is so disastrous for the UK, they are rather hoist by their own petard if they then let that very thing happen. And for what? A bit of naked opportunism to get power over an apparently ravaged land?

    Fast forward to 27 March. No Deal looms as inevitable. What do you do Yvette Cooper? What do you do, Chuka Umunna? What do you do, Sarah Wollaston?

    Revoke Article 50
    Not on the table from May. It's Hard Brexit then.
    Yes, I suppose so, but it is May that will carry the can for the consequences.

    It won't stick though.
    What won't stick? Our Leaving? Jeez, you really think that there is any appetite to go through all this shit AGAIN? The more painful that No Deal proves to be, the LESS likely it is that anyone outside the Westminster bubble will want to pick at that EU scab any more.

    Some time shortly before 29th March, Remain Fantasists need to let go of their fantasy. It's not happening. Stop being the toddler in the supermarket aisle having a screaming fit because they can't have chocolate for dinner - and decide which type of vegetables they want with their chicken. They can either have a role in the choice - or risk getting sprouts with every meal. For ever.
    No Deal will mean a non-Tory government fairly quickly, and that will take a more positive approach to Europe.

    If I were a Labour MP I would stick to my guns. A pM and Deal that has lost the support of about a third of its MPs cannot last.

    I would not be blackmailed.

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 9,785


    Article 50 delay requires a Cabinet coup. And once you've had that coup and delayed - then what? You have bought more time to do what, precisely? And at what cost to get that delay?

    Cabinet ministers are ministers. Ministers are people in charge of ministries. Everything that goes wrong the day after the deadline - ie basically everything - is the responsibility of a ministry. This will be blamed on the minister. So if there's no deal on Exit Day and TMay has a way to make Exit Day go away for a while, I doubt the cabinet will stop her.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 10,267
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    May's Deal is Brexit.

    No Deal Brexit is Brexit.

    Inside May's head, she is going to deliver Brexit. So what flavour of Brexit do you want, Remainers? As 29th March approaches, which flavour do those Remainer MPs want to be associated with facilitating? By screaming that No Deal Brexit is so disastrous for the UK, they are rather hoist by their own petard if they then let that very thing happen. And for what? A bit of naked opportunism to get power over an apparently ravaged land?

    Fast forward to 27 March. No Deal looms as inevitable. What do you do Yvette Cooper? What do you do, Chuka Umunna? What do you do, Sarah Wollaston?

    Revoke Article 50
    Not on the table from May. It's Hard Brexit then.
    Yes, I suppose so, but it is May that will carry the can for the consequences.

    It won't stick though.
    What won't stick? Our Leaving? Jeez, you really think that there is any appetite to go through all this shit AGAIN? The more painful that No Deal proves to be, the LESS likely it is that anyone outside the Westminster bubble will want to pick at that EU scab any more.

    Some time shortly before 29th March, Remain Fantasists need to let go of their fantasy. It's not happening. Stop being the toddler in the supermarket aisle having a screaming fit because they can't have chocolate for dinner - and decide which type of vegetables they want with their chicken. They can either have a role in the choice - or risk getting sprouts with every meal. For ever.
    No Deal will mean a non-Tory government fairly quickly, and that will take a more positive approach to Europe.

    If I were a Labour MP I would stick to my guns. A pM and Deal that has lost the support of about a third of its MPs cannot last.

    I would not be blackmailed.

    Quite. Increasingly feeling sorry for Tories who have gone along with May. She led them to an embarrassing electoral failure in June 2017. They stuck with her despite their instincts. She is leading them to disaster now. She does not deserve their loyalty.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 9,785
    TMay's problem is that nobody trusts anything she says, but everyone thinks she's secretly on their side when it comes to the crunch. Maybe she needs to stand down temporarily in favour of either John Redwood or Kenneth Clarke.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 11,525

    Dr. Foxy, Corbyn isn't pro-EU.

    Yes he is, mildly. He's said it publicly. He's said it privately (to me). He was previously anti-EU (capitalist alliance) but now feels that there are too many Continental allies to reject and that the institution itself is not as zealously capitalist as it was. Nor is he in the slightest anti-foreigner, and perfectly comfortable sitting with politicians from anywhere. E.g. we had a chat about Renzi (who was a sort of Italian Blair/Macron) - he said he'd expected someone full of ideas which Corbyn might disagree with but would find interesting, but was disappointed to find he was eloquent but not thoughtful.

    But he doesn't feel very strongly about the EU, unlike most people in senior levels of politics. Most people find that baffling, and probably concealing some secret animus. But Corbyn, whatever his faults, doesn't do secret beliefs. He's willing to compromise his views where the party wantds him to (Nato, Trident, monarchy), but that takes the form of saying "I don't agree with this personally, but that's our position". What he also doesn't do is pretend to passion that he doesn't feel. He thinks the EU on balance worth belonging to, and that's it. Similarly, he supposes that a referendum may be the right thing to do if the party wants it, but other options should be exhausted first.

    We're so used to politicians who mime beliefs they don't hold that we get accustomed to second-guessing "what they really think and won't say". That was certainly true of Blair and Cameron, and also of some of Corbyn's allies. It's a mistake in his case. WYSIWYG.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 9,785
    If the Prime Minister is unreachable - say they've gone on a remote walking holiday or taken sedatives and won't wake up for 24 hours - is there someone with the authority to take urgent decisions on their behalf in the interim?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 47,008
    Mr. Palmer, Corbyn, pro-EU and willing to sit with politicians from anywhere?

    That does not tally with him refusing to share a stage with Cameron et al to campaign for Remain (nor the ever so slight disparity in effort he put into the Remain and 2017 GE campaigns).
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 22,536
    By the way, one of the previously uncommitted MPs has now come off the fence:



    This is not a surprise but I’m sure Theresa May welcomes it nevertheless.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 11,525

    BTW I don't have a strong opinion on this but would be really interesting to hear from the people who have said they think the deal will eventually go through - Nick Palmer and David Herdson spring to mind - on which of these groups they think TMay will flip.

    Most Tory MPs. The zealots are quite small in number (which is why they struggled to get 48 signatures. Most Tories will vote no the first time to show their backbones, then cave "in the national interest" if they can see it's approaching a majority. A few opposition MPs approaching retirement or particularly strongly-motivated will do the same, or abstain.

    The problem for May is if that first "backbone" vote is not close - in that case, Tories may feel there's no point in jumping on the sinking ship. So I'm not sure about it either.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 9,785

    BTW I don't have a strong opinion on this but would be really interesting to hear from the people who have said they think the deal will eventually go through - Nick Palmer and David Herdson spring to mind - on which of these groups they think TMay will flip.

    Most Tory MPs. The zealots are quite small in number (which is why they struggled to get 48 signatures. Most Tories will vote no the first time to show their backbones, then cave "in the national interest" if they can see it's approaching a majority. A few opposition MPs approaching retirement or particularly strongly-motivated will do the same, or abstain.

    The problem for May is if that first "backbone" vote is not close - in that case, Tories may feel there's no point in jumping on the sinking ship. So I'm not sure about it either.
    But she doesn't just need *most* Tory MPs, she needs nearly all of them, no?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 10,267

    BTW I don't have a strong opinion on this but would be really interesting to hear from the people who have said they think the deal will eventually go through - Nick Palmer and David Herdson spring to mind - on which of these groups they think TMay will flip.

    Most Tory MPs. The zealots are quite small in number (which is why they struggled to get 48 signatures. Most Tories will vote no the first time to show their backbones, then cave "in the national interest" if they can see it's approaching a majority. A few opposition MPs approaching retirement or particularly strongly-motivated will do the same, or abstain.

    The problem for May is if that first "backbone" vote is not close - in that case, Tories may feel there's no point in jumping on the sinking ship. So I'm not sure about it either.
    She’s not getting the DUP. So she doesn’t have a natural majority. She will need more than Labour MP for each ‘zealot’. Do you see a Labour rebellion on that scale?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 11,525

    Mr. Palmer, Corbyn, pro-EU and willing to sit with politicians from anywhere?

    That does not tally with him refusing to share a stage with Cameron et al to campaign for Remain (nor the ever so slight disparity in effort he put into the Remain and 2017 GE campaigns).

    It was pretty generally agreed at the time that sharing a platform would have been a bad idea for Remain - putting off both Tory right-wingers ("What! Vote with Corbyn??") and Labour left-wingers. But also, Corbyn is much more anti-Tory than pro-EU. As I say, he doesn't feel that strongly about the EU. Nor, frankly, do most Labour voters - the ones that do are vociferous, but not that numerous. Mild support is the centre of gravity.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 22,536

    BTW I don't have a strong opinion on this but would be really interesting to hear from the people who have said they think the deal will eventually go through - Nick Palmer and David Herdson spring to mind - on which of these groups they think TMay will flip.

    Most Tory MPs. The zealots are quite small in number (which is why they struggled to get 48 signatures. Most Tories will vote no the first time to show their backbones, then cave "in the national interest" if they can see it's approaching a majority. A few opposition MPs approaching retirement or particularly strongly-motivated will do the same, or abstain.

    The problem for May is if that first "backbone" vote is not close - in that case, Tories may feel there's no point in jumping on the sinking ship. So I'm not sure about it either.
    But she doesn't just need *most* Tory MPs, she needs nearly all of them, no?
    All, and some help from elsewhere. 35 must be the absolute minimum number of diehards, as I note above. Anyone thinking the deal is going to pass needs to work out where she is going to get that assistance from. A list of names, ideally.
  • eekeek Posts: 2,588
    edited January 5
    I know this is old news but the great thing is that I can say the below without breaking any NDA I may be subject to (and I'm subject to so many that nowadays it's easier to wait for someone else to reveal things first).



    The reason why you don't want Huawei systems anywhere near core infrastructure is because the code is a pile of exploitable untested crap.....

    Now the curious thing is that the only countries with the complete source code are china and ourselves as we insisted on it.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 22,536

    Mr. Palmer, Corbyn, pro-EU and willing to sit with politicians from anywhere?

    That does not tally with him refusing to share a stage with Cameron et al to campaign for Remain (nor the ever so slight disparity in effort he put into the Remain and 2017 GE campaigns).

    It was pretty generally agreed at the time that sharing a platform would have been a bad idea for Remain - putting off both Tory right-wingers ("What! Vote with Corbyn??") and Labour left-wingers. But also, Corbyn is much more anti-Tory than pro-EU. As I say, he doesn't feel that strongly about the EU. Nor, frankly, do most Labour voters - the ones that do are vociferous, but not that numerous. Mild support is the centre of gravity.
    This is simply incorrect and, I believe, at the heart of many political miscalculations. Voters identify far more strongly with their referendum allegiance than with a political party.
  • hamiltonacehamiltonace Posts: 412
    I wonder if the shambles of shipping contracts with virtual or foreign companies and creating a traffic jam as practice are designed to show what a shambles a WTO Brexit would be or are just incompetence. I tend to think the second but the impact is the first.

    In the real world the economy is now fading fast. By end of March we will be in recession without an agreement. Will this put added pressure on the MPs or lead to the cancellation of A50.

    Will we get a motion asking TM to cancel A50 without an agreement and if she loses it and ignores it what would happen?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 10,267

    Mr. Palmer, Corbyn, pro-EU and willing to sit with politicians from anywhere?

    That does not tally with him refusing to share a stage with Cameron et al to campaign for Remain (nor the ever so slight disparity in effort he put into the Remain and 2017 GE campaigns).

    It was pretty generally agreed at the time that sharing a platform would have been a bad idea for Remain - putting off both Tory right-wingers ("What! Vote with Corbyn??") and Labour left-wingers. But also, Corbyn is much more anti-Tory than pro-EU. As I say, he doesn't feel that strongly about the EU. Nor, frankly, do most Labour voters - the ones that do are vociferous, but not that numerous. Mild support is the centre of gravity.
    This is simply incorrect and, I believe, at the heart of many political miscalculations. Voters identify far more strongly with their referendum allegiance than with a political party.
    I think you’re probably both a bit wrong. The referendum clearly does matter, equally the politics of wheelie bins, parking charges, train fares, the NHS is all alive and kicking. The clever politician aligns the two (e.g. that bus)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 47,008
    Mr. Meeks, for some I agree.

    I think more Leavers are oriented around that result than a party one, but Labour voters tend to be more focused on the party. Labour tribalism is far stronger than Conservative tribalism.

    At the very least, referendum-ID is a rival to party-ID.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 10,257
    edited January 5

    TMay's problem is that nobody trusts anything she says, but everyone thinks she's secretly on their side when it comes to the crunch. Maybe she needs to stand down temporarily in favour of either John Redwood or Kenneth Clarke.

    SIR John Redwood,

    I think Ken Clarke said Brexit should be delayed for at least five years because that's how long it would take to organise. He did try to explain why but Humprrys in his enthusiasm to hear his own voice and show the rest of us how pompous he could be talked over him through the whole interview. With Clarkes slight stutter the whole cacophony sounded like Schoenberg
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 22,536
    Jonathan said:

    Mr. Palmer, Corbyn, pro-EU and willing to sit with politicians from anywhere?

    That does not tally with him refusing to share a stage with Cameron et al to campaign for Remain (nor the ever so slight disparity in effort he put into the Remain and 2017 GE campaigns).

    It was pretty generally agreed at the time that sharing a platform would have been a bad idea for Remain - putting off both Tory right-wingers ("What! Vote with Corbyn??") and Labour left-wingers. But also, Corbyn is much more anti-Tory than pro-EU. As I say, he doesn't feel that strongly about the EU. Nor, frankly, do most Labour voters - the ones that do are vociferous, but not that numerous. Mild support is the centre of gravity.
    This is simply incorrect and, I believe, at the heart of many political miscalculations. Voters identify far more strongly with their referendum allegiance than with a political party.
    I think you’re probably both a bit wrong. The referendum clearly does matter, equally the politics of wheelie bins, parking charges, train fares, the NHS is all alive and kicking. The clever politician aligns the two (e.g. that bus)
    My evidence:

    https://whatukthinks.org/eu/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/WUKT-EU-Briefing-Paper-15-Oct-18-Emotional-legacy-paper-final.pdf

    A quite astonishing percentage of the population calls themselves a very strong or fairly strong Remainer or Leaver (I’d call myself fairly strong). Under 40% have a very or fairly strong party allegiance.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 48,984

    By the way, one of the previously uncommitted MPs has now come off the fence:



    This is not a surprise but I’m sure Theresa May welcomes it nevertheless.

    Mr Masterson seems to have successfully deduced the consequence of not voting for the deal transposes to a set of unknown outcomes.
    Will his good sense rub off on the 350-400 (Of both the No deal and No Brexit) flavours of MPs who can only see their preffere d outcome if the deal goes down ?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 22,536

    Mr. Meeks, for some I agree.

    I think more Leavers are oriented around that result than a party one, but Labour voters tend to be more focused on the party. Labour tribalism is far stronger than Conservative tribalism.

    At the very least, referendum-ID is a rival to party-ID.

    That’s also incorrect. Remainers are more likely to see themselves as very strong Remainers.
  • eekeek Posts: 2,588
    Jonathan said:

    Mr. Palmer, Corbyn, pro-EU and willing to sit with politicians from anywhere?

    That does not tally with him refusing to share a stage with Cameron et al to campaign for Remain (nor the ever so slight disparity in effort he put into the Remain and 2017 GE campaigns).

    It was pretty generally agreed at the time that sharing a platform would have been a bad idea for Remain - putting off both Tory right-wingers ("What! Vote with Corbyn??") and Labour left-wingers. But also, Corbyn is much more anti-Tory than pro-EU. As I say, he doesn't feel that strongly about the EU. Nor, frankly, do most Labour voters - the ones that do are vociferous, but not that numerous. Mild support is the centre of gravity.
    This is simply incorrect and, I believe, at the heart of many political miscalculations. Voters identify far more strongly with their referendum allegiance than with a political party.
    I think you’re probably both a bit wrong. The referendum clearly does matter, equally the politics of wheelie bins, parking charges, train fares, the NHS is all alive and kicking. The clever politician aligns the two (e.g. that bus)
    But the love of the NHS may (say) push people firmly into the Brexit camp in such a way that they refuse to leave it.. And although May has already promised the NHS the appropriate money I wonder how many would remember it when asked to vote again because they will probably still think Leave = £15bn for the NHS....
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 47,008
    Mr. Meeks, but does that alter voting intention? There's overlap, of course, with blues being largely Leave and Labour being largely Remain.

    Maybe that explains the tension within Labour over this.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 10,267
    edited January 5

    Jonathan said:

    Mr. Palmer, Corbyn, pro-EU and willing to sit with politicians from anywhere?

    That does not tally with him refusing to share a stage with Cameron et al to campaign for Remain (nor the ever so slight disparity in effort he put into the Remain and 2017 GE campaigns).

    It was pretty generally agreed at the time that sharing a platform would have been a bad idea for Remain - putting off both Tory right-wingers ("What! Vote with Corbyn??") and Labour left-wingers. But also, Corbyn is much more anti-Tory than pro-EU. As I say, he doesn't feel that strongly about the EU. Nor, frankly, do most Labour voters - the ones that do are vociferous, but not that numerous. Mild support is the centre of gravity.
    This is simply incorrect and, I believe, at the heart of many political miscalculations. Voters identify far more strongly with their referendum allegiance than with a political party.
    I think you’re probably both a bit wrong. The referendum clearly does matter, equally the politics of wheelie bins, parking charges, train fares, the NHS is all alive and kicking. The clever politician aligns the two (e.g. that bus)
    My evidence:

    https://whatukthinks.org/eu/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/WUKT-EU-Briefing-Paper-15-Oct-18-Emotional-legacy-paper-final.pdf

    A quite astonishing percentage of the population calls themselves a very strong or fairly strong Remainer or Leaver (I’d call myself fairly strong). Under 40% have a very or fairly strong party allegiance.
    No doubt it’s there, but it’s a little remote at the moment (It won’t be soon). Meanwhile if you’re sitting on an operation waiting list for a bad knee , you’ve just had to fork out an extra 600 quid for your train ticket or have litter in the street because foxes have raided and overflowing bin, other things will be on your mind.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 7,887
    My not at all confident guess is that Theresa May will accommodate Labour enough on the permanence of the customs union to get Corbyn to go along with the deal at least to abstention. He clearly isn't interested in any particular alternative to her deal. If so, current conservative supporters of the deal will stick with it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 9,287

    BTW I don't have a strong opinion on this but would be really interesting to hear from the people who have said they think the deal will eventually go through - Nick Palmer and David Herdson spring to mind - on which of these groups they think TMay will flip.

    Most Tory MPs. The zealots are quite small in number (which is why they struggled to get 48 signatures. Most Tories will vote no the first time to show their backbones, then cave "in the national interest" if they can see it's approaching a majority. A few opposition MPs approaching retirement or particularly strongly-motivated will do the same, or abstain.

    The problem for May is if that first "backbone" vote is not close - in that case, Tories may feel there's no point in jumping on the sinking ship. So I'm not sure about it either.
    But she doesn't just need *most* Tory MPs, she needs nearly all of them, no?
    All, and some help from elsewhere. 35 must be the absolute minimum number of diehards, as I note above. Anyone thinking the deal is going to pass needs to work out where she is going to get that assistance from. A list of names, ideally.
    It’s not going to happen, I think.
    As you point out, a significant number of Labour voters care deeply about this, but the Parliamentary party seems happy with a combination of let’s blames the Tories for whatever happens, and Europe just isn’t that important to us. Add to that a belief that May might be bluffing, and I can’t see more than a handful risking their careers.

    The longer she has left it, the more unpopular her deal has become, as even those who back it do so fairly grudgingly, while it’s a free subject of point scoring for the many groups who oppose it.

    A referendum might force a choice, but while the deal is mired in Parliament, there are always going to be other possibilities (whatever juveniles like MM might claim to the contrary), until it is too late.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 21,378
    eek said:

    I know this is old news but the great thing is that I can say the below without breaking any NDA I may be subject to (and I'm subject to so many that nowadays it's easier to wait for someone else to reveal things first).



    The reason why you don't want Huawei systems anywhere near core infrastructure is because the code is a pile of exploitable untested crap.....

    Now the curious thing is that the only countries with the complete source code are china and ourselves as we insisted on it.

    Now why would we want that?

    :confused:
  • alex.alex. Posts: 3,325
    Just out of interest, and ignoring opinions on how May/British Govt/Parliament have acted in the whole Brexit farrago.

    Does anyone who pays attention to Irish politics/media detect that there is any level of dissent/criticism of Varadkar/Irish Govt given the increasing likelihood of no deal? l get that, now, politically it is almost impossible for them to back down now, but one would have thought there must be some questioning of how they have managed to get into a situation where it looks increasingly likely that the accepted worst scenario for (Southern) Ireland ie. no deal is going to happen. Given that presumably everyone accepts that in isolation "Deal minus backstop" is significantly better for Ireland than "No deal minus backstop"?

    And it will look even more silly if all the warnings about "in the event of no deal we MUST enforce a hard border", then don't actually come to pass in reality, creating the question of why the backstop was insisted upon in the first place (when most people i think accept that, backstop or no backstop, neither EU/Ireland or British Government would want to do anything other than the bare minimum in border infrastructure).

    Or is Irish politics/media still content with the line that there isn't much that can or could be done given the state of internal UK politics?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 7,887
    edited January 5

    By the way, one of the previously uncommitted MPs has now come off the fence:



    This is not a surprise but I’m sure Theresa May welcomes it nevertheless.

    Hardly a ringing endorsement of his party leader's handling of Brexit, though
  • RogerRoger Posts: 10,257

    Mr. Palmer, Corbyn, pro-EU and willing to sit with politicians from anywhere?

    That does not tally with him refusing to share a stage with Cameron et al to campaign for Remain (nor the ever so slight disparity in effort he put into the Remain and 2017 GE campaigns).

    It was pretty generally agreed at the time that sharing a platform would have been a bad idea for Remain - putting off both Tory right-wingers ("What! Vote with Corbyn??") and Labour left-wingers. But also, Corbyn is much more anti-Tory than pro-EU. As I say, he doesn't feel that strongly about the EU. Nor, frankly, do most Labour voters - the ones that do are vociferous, but not that numerous. Mild support is the centre of gravity.
    This is simply incorrect and, I believe, at the heart of many political miscalculations. Voters identify far more strongly with their referendum allegiance than with a political party.
    I hope that's incorrect. What a depressing thought that a leader of a political party should be ambivalent to the most important decision we'll have made since the war. Let's hope his motivation is more laudable than personal ambition.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 671
    Hard to read this (excellent) summary and not conclude that the 4/6 available on the deal NOT passing is the bet of a lifetime.

    I agree with Alastair that TM's best target is remainer MPs. There are more of them and they are less ideological. She needs to kill off the last unicorn (the 2nd referendum) and force the House to confront No Deal, make it clear that she is prepared to allow it to happen. Say to MPs, "Do you really want that? Ok, so go ahead. Make my day."

    Blackmail, in other words, and quite right too. The approach is perfectly logical. We're leaving, per the 2016 referendum, and there are 2 ways to do it, with a deal or without one, and with a deal means this deal because there is no other deal and nor can there be. So choose.

    I think the ramping up in public of No Deal 'planning' (lol) indicates that this is the plan. I hope it is because it is the right one and I do want the Deal to pass.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 12,971
    alex. said:

    Just out of interest, and ignoring opinions on how May/British Govt/Parliament have acted in the whole Brexit farrago.

    Does anyone who pays attention to Irish politics/media detect that there is any level of dissent/criticism of Varadkar/Irish Govt given the increasing likelihood of no deal? l get that, now, politically it is almost impossible for them to back down now, but one would have thought there must be some questioning of how they have managed to get into a situation where it looks increasingly likely that the accepted worst scenario for (Southern) Ireland ie. no deal is going to happen. Given that presumably everyone accepts that in isolation "Deal minus backstop" is significantly better for Ireland than "No deal minus backstop"?

    And it will look even more silly if all the warnings about "in the event of no deal we MUST enforce a hard border", then don't actually come to pass in reality, creating the question of why the backstop was insisted upon in the first place (when most people i think accept that, backstop or no backstop, neither EU/Ireland or British Government would want to do anything other than the bare minimum in border infrastructure).

    Or is Irish politics/media still content with the line that there isn't much that can or could be done given the state of internal UK politics?

    I am on the train to Dublin right now; if I pick up anything I will let you know :)
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 7,187
    FF43 said:

    My not at all confident guess is that Theresa May will accommodate Labour enough on the permanence of the customs union to get Corbyn to go along with the deal at least to abstention. He clearly isn't interested in any particular alternative to her deal. If so, current conservative supporters of the deal will stick with it.

    I agree that that is the most likely way through - make it 'Labour Brexit' to get enough cross party support.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 21,848
    FF43 said:

    By the way, one of the previously uncommitted MPs has now come off the fence:



    This is not a surprise but I’m sure Theresa May welcomes it nevertheless.

    Hardly a ringing endorsement of his party leader's handling of Brexit, though
    Well, she doesn't deserve one.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 3,325
    FF43 said:

    My not at all confident guess is that Theresa May will accommodate Labour enough on the permanence of the customs union to get Corbyn to go along with the deal at least to abstention. He clearly isn't interested in any particular alternative to her deal. If so, current conservative supporters of the deal will stick with it.

    Labour's position is designed to not be accommodated with though, no? I'm yet to hear a sensible explanation for why the only substantial matter of difference should be whether the customs union is temporary or permanent given that effectively the deal is for a permanent customs union unless both sides agree to suspend it. Which to my mind is pretty much the same thing in reality as any "permanent" customs union could always subsequently be negotiated out if both sides want it.

    And consequently all the legal advice that Labour make great play of trumpeting should actually allow them to comfortably back the deal if that (permanence of customs union) were a genuine sticking point.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 9,287
    It’s not all bad news.

    A statistic to cheer us all up...
    Marcus Harris made an eye-catching 79 and, if none of his team-mates pass that, he will hold the record for the lowest highest score in a Test series for Australia in 100 years...
  • alex.alex. Posts: 3,325
    Another shooting in the US. Are the UK and US currently involved in a competition to determine which is worse "guns or knives"? In a surprisingly competitive match up.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 6,220

    Dr. Foxy, Corbyn isn't pro-EU.

    No, but his party is.

    In any case, I would prefer a Corbynite Peoples Brexit, protecting environmental and social rights to a Redwood Brexit.

    I think there would be a GE soon enough, but even if not, there is no point in voting for something (eg The Deal) that you do not want.

    You may think differently, but I think Labour solidarity will hold. If the Deal fails, it fails because Mays on party would not back it.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 4,970
    I'm happy to accept that Labour is pro-EU, because it can sometimes incorporate left-wing policies without the UK voters being obstructive. Corbyn might be less gung-ho because these are often more pink than red. The open borders are also attractive. The Tories will be generally less keen.

    To Labour, sovereignty is less of an issue as long as the policies are acceptable. That is where the divide occurs. But its in-line with the EU's stated aim, a single political union within Europe. That means a single parliament, a single judiciary and a single army. Some Remainers refuse to accept that simple fact, but it's why there can never be negotiation on FOM.

    I've no problems with Remainers as long as the Remain grouping admit this, but they don't . They pretend it will never happen, but it's also why they're inhibited in promoting the EU. It restricts them to arguing that Brexit is bad, and all Brexit voters are racist/fascists.

    Many on here will be happy with a single European country. It has merits. They may be proud to be a citizen of Nowhere. They're entitled to their opinions. But let's be honest about this debate.


  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 23,704
    Good and fair summary by Alastair.

    So how does it pass? I think that there are 2 options, both unlikely.

    The first is a volte face by Labour. We don't like the deal but to default to no deal would be an abrogation of our responsibilities. We will abstain. On Alastair's numbers May can win the vote (just) if Labour abstain. Whether May can get some cover for Corbyn to do this, such as some gesture or assurance about the future trade deal from Brussels, remains to be seen but it would certainly help.

    The second is a volte face by the ERG if they can be persuaded that revocation really is the alternative. Even then there is work to be done around the edges given the position of the DUP. What May would give for the 13 MPs she carelessly misplaced in 2017.

    I would give option 1 about a 30% chance. I do think Corbyn wants to deliver a Brexit that respects the vote but the temptation to play games is great.

    Option 2 is hard to give the time of day, 10% at most.

    The more likely option it seems to me at this stage is a no deal Brexit. The complete incompetence and dereliction of duty in failing to prepare for such a scenario over the last 2 years is going to come home to roost although I suspect quite a lot can be done at short notice once we realise there really is no alternative. There were far, far more mitigating factors for Chamberlain than there is ever going to be for May. What a legacy.

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 671
    FF43 said:

    My not at all confident guess is that Theresa May will accommodate Labour enough on the permanence of the customs union to get Corbyn to go along with the deal at least to abstention. He clearly isn't interested in any particular alternative to her deal. If so, current conservative supporters of the deal will stick with it.

    What do you think Corbyn's price would be for doing that?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 6,220

    FF43 said:

    My not at all confident guess is that Theresa May will accommodate Labour enough on the permanence of the customs union to get Corbyn to go along with the deal at least to abstention. He clearly isn't interested in any particular alternative to her deal. If so, current conservative supporters of the deal will stick with it.

    I agree that that is the most likely way through - make it 'Labour Brexit' to get enough cross party support.
    Permanent CU, with a deal on FOM as part of the FTA would work for me.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 3,325
    Foxy said:

    Dr. Foxy, Corbyn isn't pro-EU.

    No, but his party is.

    In any case, I would prefer a Corbynite Peoples Brexit, protecting environmental and social rights to a Redwood Brexit.

    I think there would be a GE soon enough, but even if not, there is no point in voting for something (eg The Deal) that you do not want.

    You may think differently, but I think Labour solidarity will hold. If the Deal fails, it fails because Mays on party would not back it.
    And this, in a nutshell, is the problem with all politics today. Everything is about the blame game, and not about the best (or "least worst") outcomes.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 6,220
    alex. said:

    Foxy said:

    Dr. Foxy, Corbyn isn't pro-EU.

    No, but his party is.

    In any case, I would prefer a Corbynite Peoples Brexit, protecting environmental and social rights to a Redwood Brexit.

    I think there would be a GE soon enough, but even if not, there is no point in voting for something (eg The Deal) that you do not want.

    You may think differently, but I think Labour solidarity will hold. If the Deal fails, it fails because Mays on party would not back it.
    And this, in a nutshell, is the problem with all politics today. Everything is about the blame game, and not about the best (or "least worst") outcomes.
    No it isnot about blame, people should not vote for policies that they oppose.
  • Thanks to Alastair for his usual clear eyed assessment. "No deal by stealth" would be a right wing coup. The ERG are a minority and they ought not to be able to force such an outcome.

    Also No Deal leads to Scottish Independence as massive poll leads show. Fine by me but a very damaging way to get there. How it will affect Ireland, south and north, I am not sure, but it is unlikely to be pretty.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 7,887
    edited January 5
    alex. said:

    FF43 said:

    My not at all confident guess is that Theresa May will accommodate Labour enough on the permanence of the customs union to get Corbyn to go along with the deal at least to abstention. He clearly isn't interested in any particular alternative to her deal. If so, current conservative supporters of the deal will stick with it.

    Labour's position is designed to not be accommodated with though, no? I'm yet to hear a sensible explanation for why the only substantial matter of difference should be whether the customs union is temporary or permanent given that effectively the deal is for a permanent customs union unless both sides agree to suspend it. Which to my mind is pretty much the same thing in reality as any "permanent" customs union could always subsequently be negotiated out if both sides want it.

    And consequently all the legal advice that Labour make great play of trumpeting should actually allow them to comfortably back the deal if that (permanence of customs union) were a genuine sticking point.
    The customs union sticking point is with Conservative MPs, or more particularly supporters, and not Labour. Which is why Theresa May has ruled it out. My guess, as I say, is that she will unrule it out. The Withdrawal Agreement is set but the Political Statement can be made softer. Theresa May has always presented her line as the only one available. It isn't.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 37,913
    There's no path to getting the deal through. Trying over and over is pointless because enough people want no deal, don't fear no deal, or presume we will remain, somehow, as the deadline approaches, so are not persuadable.

    On the concluding point that she is futilely trying to placate leavers rather than trying to gain the support of remainers outside her party, I agree it is not working but I do understand it. That means getting Labour remainers on board, which is also futile since, well, they see remain as a possibility. Or it requires just adopting Labour's policy, but that policy is to renegotiate something different, and probably loses her many of the votes she currently has. So she has attempted to get her party behind her, presumably to make it closer and pressure the Labour votes she would sill need. It isn't happening.

    As has been the case for a long time, it is no deal or remain as the options now. As much as she clearly does not want no deal, May would presumably try to no deal, and I guess it is a question of if the Tory remainers follow through on their threats if that happens.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 671

    The problem for May is if that first "backbone" vote is not close - in that case, Tories may feel there's no point in jumping on the sinking ship. So I'm not sure about it either.

    This must be key.

    How close does she need to get in the MV for the Deal to keep breathing?

    50?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 15,257
    Nigelb said:

    It’s not all bad news.

    A statistic to cheer us all up...
    Marcus Harris made an eye-catching 79 and, if none of his team-mates pass that, he will hold the record for the lowest highest score in a Test series for Australia in 100 years...

    The entire cricketing world outside Oz is feasting on much Schadenfreude.

    Which will be redoubled if David Warner comes back and bats as well as Mike Gatting did after his ban...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 23,704
    Nigelb said:

    It’s not all bad news.

    A statistic to cheer us all up...
    Marcus Harris made an eye-catching 79 and, if none of his team-mates pass that, he will hold the record for the lowest highest score in a Test series for Australia in 100 years...

    I think that the only question will be whether India can take 20 wickets on that strip but either way India win the series.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 37,913
    Notably, it was known for quite some time before the MV was pulled that it was going to be lost, that's why there was lots of speculation about whether it might get through on second attempt etc etc.

    That it was pulled at the last minute, therefore, seems to me to be a very strong indication that while May's team might say that they will hold the vote again, many times if needed, that the reality will be quite different. If they really thought they'd get another shot why not hold the vote back then?
  • alex.alex. Posts: 3,325
    FF43 said:

    alex. said:

    FF43 said:

    My not at all confident guess is that Theresa May will accommodate Labour enough on the permanence of the customs union to get Corbyn to go along with the deal at least to abstention. He clearly isn't interested in any particular alternative to her deal. If so, current conservative supporters of the deal will stick with it.

    Labour's position is designed to not be accommodated with though, no? I'm yet to hear a sensible explanation for why the only substantial matter of difference should be whether the customs union is temporary or permanent given that effectively the deal is for a permanent customs union unless both sides agree to suspend it. Which to my mind is pretty much the same thing in reality as any "permanent" customs union could always subsequently be negotiated out if both sides want it.

    And consequently all the legal advice that Labour make great play of trumpeting should actually allow them to comfortably back the deal if that (permanence of customs union) were a genuine sticking point.
    The customs union sticking point is with Conservative MPs, or more particularly supporters, and not Labour. Which is why Theresa May has ruled it out. My guess, as I say, is that she will unrule it out. The Withdrawal Agreement is set but the Political Statement can be made softer. Theresa May has always presented her line as the only one available. It isn't.
    That's missing the point? The Conservative objection to the backstop is that the Customs Union resulting from it is de facto permanent (taking the malign view of EU intentions). So if Labour objections based around this were genuine it doesn't make sense for them to strongly oppose the deal.

    (In fact i believe that originally Labour were originally opposed to a (UK encompassing) Customs Union, but came to support it as their solution to the backstop. It then evolved into a "permanent" customs union to distinguish from May's proposals.
This discussion has been closed.