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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump’s Shutdown: Who blinks, who loses?

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited January 5 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump’s Shutdown: Who blinks, who loses?

Thirteen months to the first elections in the primary campaigns for next year’s US presidential vote might seem a long way off when so much can and will happen in the UK over the next thirteen weeks, never mind months. That, however, is because Brexit is exceptional.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 3,948
    Sorry. FPT just to finish, then I'll think about Trump.

    This is obviously a very high stakes bluff on the part of Mrs May. But she's not very good at it. It is widely known that you can't believe her and she caves. (Contrast her with the DUP). So she is going to cave but what to? Revoke or Ref2? GONU?

    Because she is bluffing she won't have let many people in on her Plan B. But she will need advice on the merits of her Plan B and the logistics and minimum time needed.

    I assume she is consulting Philip. Perhaps Lidington. Perhaps Rudd. Not the Leader of the House. Long shot - perhaps Grieve in strictest confidence?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 3,948
    Trump is slowly slipping in odds on re-election (29% chance ) and also in popularity (net -12%).

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.128151441

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

    I can see this trend accelerating as the shut down continues. What are Senate Republicans going to do about it? There are already serious grumbles of discontent.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 23,622
    Another thread, another leader seeking to blackmail their opponents. Donald Trump will be happy enough to lose if, like irreconcilable Leavers, he can claim to have been betrayed.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,037
    Thank you @david_herdson for the thread header.

    The 2011 shutdown did hurt the Republicans. Hopefully they will remember this before the idea of the USA as a serious country is damaged further.

    Wouldn’t it be nice if an aspiring Democratic candidate for the presidency promises to scrap the debt ceiling? It’s an idiotic piece of legislation. If Republicans were really serious about the national debt (chance would be a fine thing) they could propose a copy of Germany’s schuldenbremse (debt brake).
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 13,289
    Nice thread header.

    Happy New Year David. :)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 29,045
    America = Banana Republic
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 14,130
    Any chance of troops not getting paid?
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,085
    Clear choice between “Draining the swamp - WIP” or “It’s not a swamp, stupid - and if the alternative is you, leave it be”.

    Of course, there are a lot more variables. Trump might not stand, he might be impeached or at least face impeachment proceedings, and as ever, his fate will rest with how many losers or winners there are from his management of the economy, particularly his trade wars.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 7,512
    FPT @Barnesian on 3/1 "Uk To Leave Eu With No Brexit Deal Before 1st April 2019" with Ladbrokes/Coral

    Dear God, surely that's too low: it should be around evens. That has to be value.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 36,060

    Any chance of troops not getting paid?

    I imagine they are classified as essential/critical personnel.
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 513
    viewcode said:

    FPT @Barnesian on 3/1 "Uk To Leave Eu With No Brexit Deal Before 1st April 2019" with Ladbrokes/Coral

    Dear God, surely that's too low: it should be around evens. That has to be value.

    How is “No brexit deal” defined? Because as Topping and I discussed yesterday, there’s presumably going to be A Deal (planes flying, medicines moving etc), even if there’s not *The* Deal or any other comprehensive settlement.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 7,512
    [Sorry, quick terminology check. If the odds are 3/1 on something happening and I think the odds should be 1/1, do I describe the 3/1 as "too high" or "too low"?]
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 10,719
    Dems pass clean bills, remind everyone they already offered to fund wall and Trump reneged in the past, McConnell refuses to bring to a vote. Repeat ad infinitum. Clear Dem win.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 15,142
    edited January 5
    viewcode said:

    [Sorry, quick terminology check. If the odds are 3/1 on something happening and I think the odds should be 1/1, do I describe the 3/1 as "too high" or "too low"?]

    Either way, the odds seem fair to me. Aside from the Tory headbangers no-one wants it, neither government nor opposition. No PM would ever take us there.

    Edit/ conventionally odds are 'long' and 'short', not high or low
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 513
    Do unpaid US government workers not have any contractual comeback - ie suing their employer for not giving them $$$ on the 31st of the month?

    Or does one’s contract say “unless 600 pricks in Washington can’t sort their shit”??!
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 7,512

    viewcode said:

    FPT @Barnesian on 3/1 "Uk To Leave Eu With No Brexit Deal Before 1st April 2019" with Ladbrokes/Coral

    Dear God, surely that's too low: it should be around evens. That has to be value.

    How is “No brexit deal” defined? Because as Topping and I discussed yesterday, there’s presumably going to be A Deal (planes flying, medicines moving etc), even if there’s not *The* Deal or any other comprehensive settlement.
    Good point. I recall that those who bet on Greece defaulting lost their bets when Greece defaulted, because the deals reached were described using terms such as "restructuring".

    Incidentally, you do know there's a non-trivial chance that there won't be any deals, yes? Parliament is paralysed and isn't at home to Mr Decisions right now. I won't detain you with my opinion of such dereliction [it involves swearing and threats: I am really annoyed], but they're not functioning at the moment.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 36,060

    Do unpaid US government workers not have any contractual comeback - ie suing their employer for not giving them $$$ on the 31st of the month?

    Or does one’s contract say “unless 600 pricks in Washington can’t sort their shit”??!

    Aren't they technically all out of a job since the government is shut down?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 7,512
    @IanB2 "Either way, the odds seem fair to me. Aside from the Tory headbangers no-one wants it, neither government nor opposition. No PM would ever take us there."

    Um, she is taking us there. People have been spending two years watching people driving towards a cliff and saying "nahh: they'll brake". For reasons previously described, I think they might not.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 7,512
    IanB2 said:

    viewcode said:

    [Sorry, quick terminology check. If the odds are 3/1 on something happening and I think the odds should be 1/1, do I describe the 3/1 as "too high" or "too low"?]

    Edit/ conventionally odds are 'long' and 'short', not high or low
    OK. So if the odds are 3/1 on something happening and I think the odds should be 1/1, do I describe the 3/1 as "too long" or "too short"?

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 50,971
    edited January 5
    The Democratic de facto leader until their presidential nominee is chosen is now Nancy Pelosi, having been voted Speaker of the House of Representatives last week she is now the most powerful US politician after Trump. As a very tough operator and effective legislator Pelosi will not back down an inch as neither will Trump and I expect it will pave the way for a very partisan 2020 campaign, with the Democrats choosing a populist like Sanders or Warren to take the fight to Trump
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 15,142
    viewcode said:

    IanB2 said:

    viewcode said:

    [Sorry, quick terminology check. If the odds are 3/1 on something happening and I think the odds should be 1/1, do I describe the 3/1 as "too high" or "too low"?]

    Edit/ conventionally odds are 'long' and 'short', not high or low
    OK. So if the odds are 3/1 on something happening and I think the odds should be 1/1, do I describe the 3/1 as "too long" or "too short"?

    Long.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 50,971
    Barnesian said:

    Sorry. FPT just to finish, then I'll think about Trump.

    This is obviously a very high stakes bluff on the part of Mrs May. But she's not very good at it. It is widely known that you can't believe her and she caves. (Contrast her with the DUP). So she is going to cave but what to? Revoke or Ref2? GONU?

    Because she is bluffing she won't have let many people in on her Plan B. But she will need advice on the merits of her Plan B and the logistics and minimum time needed.

    I assume she is consulting Philip. Perhaps Lidington. Perhaps Rudd. Not the Leader of the House. Long shot - perhaps Grieve in strictest confidence?

    May will persist with her Deal to Brexit Day. The more other options get rejected by the Commons, e.g. EUref2 and Norway plus then the greater the chances of her Deal passing become. Revocation is of course not an option given the vast majority of Tory members and voters now are Leavers
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 15,142
    edited January 5
    viewcode said:

    @IanB2 "Either way, the odds seem fair to me. Aside from the Tory headbangers no-one wants it, neither government nor opposition. No PM would ever take us there."

    Um, she is taking us there. People have been spending two years watching people driving towards a cliff and saying "nahh: they'll brake". For reasons previously described, I think they might not.

    It's a view. But it would look the same if that person intended to stop at the last minute.

    Mrs M is dutiful, concerned about her reputation and legacy, and holds the union and her party dear. She won't be the PM to takes us to no deal, and risks it all. My expectation is that the Revocation Bill is already drafted and could be passed in a day or so, in extremis.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 23,622
    John Rentoul’s latest thoughts on Brexit:

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 48,075
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    We should be grateful to Trump. But for him, we would've had twice the media coverage on the EU.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 7,512
    IanB2 said:

    viewcode said:

    IanB2 said:

    viewcode said:

    [Sorry, quick terminology check. If the odds are 3/1 on something happening and I think the odds should be 1/1, do I describe the 3/1 as "too high" or "too low"?]

    Edit/ conventionally odds are 'long' and 'short', not high or low
    OK. So if the odds are 3/1 on something happening and I think the odds should be 1/1, do I describe the 3/1 as "too long" or "too short"?

    Long.
    Thank you.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 1,574
    edited January 5
    Watched a Trump presser yesterday, as much of it as I could tolerate, and he bumbled for an eternity on the Wall, steel is great because "you can see through it", important to have "no gaps", etc etc, quite surreal really. Or unreal rather. Yes, that's it. It did not feel real. Surely this was satire, a black comedy fiction, perhaps an intriguing new video game? But no. Dream on.

    The shutdown, I can see lasting a long time. The Dems are emboldened and Trump likes a confrontation.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 7,512
    IanB2 said:

    viewcode said:

    @IanB2 "Either way, the odds seem fair to me. Aside from the Tory headbangers no-one wants it, neither government nor opposition. No PM would ever take us there."

    Um, she is taking us there. People have been spending two years watching people driving towards a cliff and saying "nahh: they'll brake". For reasons previously described, I think they might not.

    It's a view. But it would look the same if that person intended to stop at the last minute.

    Mrs M is dutiful, concerned about her reputation and legacy, and holds the union and her party dear. She won't be the PM to takes us to no deal, and risks it all. My expectation is that the Revocation Bill is already drafted and could be passed in a day or so, in extremis.
    I think you hold our Parlimentarians in greater esteem than I.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 36,060

    John Rentoul’s latest thoughts on Brexit:

    twitter.com/johnrentoul/status/1081559139271278594?s=21

    I agree with the summary. Talk about snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 10,621
    The Democrats can’t, and won’t cave. To do so would invite only more of the same; they will call Trump’s bluff whether or not he is bluffing.

    Fortunately, he is essentially a coward, so I don’t expect the shutdown to last more than another two or three weeks.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    RobD said:

    Do unpaid US government workers not have any contractual comeback - ie suing their employer for not giving them $$$ on the 31st of the month?

    Or does one’s contract say “unless 600 pricks in Washington can’t sort their shit”??!

    Aren't they technically all out of a job since the government is shut down?
    I was stunned when I read they hadn’t been paid. What sort of tinpot country doesn’t pay its own employees? It’s the act of a banana republic.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 2,113
    RobD said:

    John Rentoul’s latest thoughts on Brexit:

    twitter.com/johnrentoul/status/1081559139271278594?s=21

    I agree with the summary. Talk about snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
    Yeah, half a loaf is better than none.
    Even as a Tory headbanger ( © IanB2) I can see that.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 33,191
    4. Are cabs getting away with it?

    Yes, to a degree. London’s 21,000 black cabs are among its dirtiest vehicles, diesels that pump out 16% of all transport nitrous oxide (NOx) in central London. Yet this powerful lobby group have been given an exemption, unlike London’s police cars, ambulances and fire engines, many of which will have to be replaced to meet the new standards.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/05/londons-ultra-low-emission-zone-what-you-need-to-know
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 352
    edited January 5
    When the government shutdown ends, are the furloughed employees back-paid for that period, or are they genuinely effectively working for free during the shutdown?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 20,052
    Good header. What are the changes Romney runs as a spoiler candidate in Rep primaries?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 15,142
    geoffw said:

    RobD said:

    John Rentoul’s latest thoughts on Brexit:

    twitter.com/johnrentoul/status/1081559139271278594?s=21

    I agree with the summary. Talk about snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
    Yeah, half a loaf is better than none.
    Even as a Tory headbanger ( © IanB2) I can see that.
    You must be the prototype soft headbanger.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 15,142
    viewcode said:

    IanB2 said:

    viewcode said:

    @IanB2 "Either way, the odds seem fair to me. Aside from the Tory headbangers no-one wants it, neither government nor opposition. No PM would ever take us there."

    Um, she is taking us there. People have been spending two years watching people driving towards a cliff and saying "nahh: they'll brake". For reasons previously described, I think they might not.

    It's a view. But it would look the same if that person intended to stop at the last minute.

    Mrs M is dutiful, concerned about her reputation and legacy, and holds the union and her party dear. She won't be the PM to takes us to no deal, and risks it all. My expectation is that the Revocation Bill is already drafted and could be passed in a day or so, in extremis.
    I think you hold our Parlimentarians in greater esteem than I.
    You must think they are totally shit, then?
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited January 5

    When the government shutdown ends, are the furloughed employees back-paid for that period, or are they genuinely effectively working for free during the shutdown?


    They are furloughed - so they are not working.

    Americans tend not to get paid holiday.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 14,130

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    We should be grateful to Trump. But for him, we would've had twice the media coverage on the EU.

    That is, Mr D, a dreadful, dreadful thought!
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 2,113
    IanB2 said:

    geoffw said:

    RobD said:

    John Rentoul’s latest thoughts on Brexit:

    twitter.com/johnrentoul/status/1081559139271278594?s=21

    I agree with the summary. Talk about snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
    Yeah, half a loaf is better than none.
    Even as a Tory headbanger ( © IanB2) I can see that.
    You must be the prototype soft headbanger.
    reculer pour mieux sauter.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 14,130
    edited January 5

    When the government shutdown ends, are the furloughed employees back-paid for that period, or are they genuinely effectively working for free during the shutdown?


    They are furloughed - so they are not working.

    Americans tend not to get paid holiday.
    So that's what meant by the Land of the Free, eh. Wonderful country. No holiday pay, no sickness insurance unless you pay for it, gerrymandered elections, racial inequality.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Anazina said:

    RobD said:

    Do unpaid US government workers not have any contractual comeback - ie suing their employer for not giving them $$$ on the 31st of the month?

    Or does one’s contract say “unless 600 pricks in Washington can’t sort their shit”??!

    Aren't they technically all out of a job since the government is shut down?
    I was stunned when I read they hadn’t been paid. What sort of tinpot country doesn’t pay its own employees? It’s the act of a banana republic.

    The USA is the sort of country that only pays for worked hours. Nice and simple.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    John Rentoul’s latest thoughts on Brexit:

    If we don't leave this time there will be plenty more chances. The EU is on a collision course with UK ideas on so many issues.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 6,346
    FPT
    HYUFD said
    'Utter rubbish, every poll now has Brexit as the most important issue facing the UK.'

    Yet again you fail to understand the difference between an issue being 'important' and it being 'salient'. The experience of the 2017 election adds weight to the comments of people such as Nick Palmer - which have far more credence than those made by someone long revealed to be a Tory party hack.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 14,130
    edited January 5
    viewcode said:
    Does this apply to referenda too?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 26,039
    The British yellow vest movement is off to a flying start.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 550

    viewcode said:
    Does this apply to referenda too?
    Well if it did, we'd be fine bringing another one as not only are we in a new session we're in a new parliament to the last referendum.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 48,075
    Mr. Glenn, I think it's silly to call something meatless a 'sausage' roll (I'm also baffled by decaff coffee and alcohol-free wine... which isn't, therefore, wine) but having a protest about it is utter nonsense. People can buy whatever they like with their own money. That's freedom. The same freedom people exercise (wrongly) when they buy a million copies of JK Rowling's books instead of mine.
  • eekeek Posts: 3,176
    edited January 5

    viewcode said:
    Does this apply to referenda too?
    It's 1 attempt per Parliamentary year - hence once the meaningful vote is voted down the options are technically No Deal leaving or revoking...
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 18,574
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    May will simply wait for the Grieve amendment to kick in.

    Then once MPs comfortably reject EUref2 and Norway plus, probably by bigger margins than they reject the Deal, the Deal becomes the default alternative to No Deal
    Not true. Labour policy is officially to support EURef2 as a last resort.

    Why should 100 Labour Remainers break a three line whip to save a Tory PMs hated deal when they can hold out for a referendum? Labour+SNP+LD etc backing EURef2 has more support than May's Deal.
    You clearly have not bothered to read a word I wrote.

    As I said once the Commons votes against EUref2 too, which it will given the vast majority of Tory Mps, DUP MPs and a number of Labour MPs oppose it, then even if most Labour MPs voted for EUref2 it will still fail. There will be no prospect of holding out for a referendum anymore, the Commons will have rejected it.

    I also think most Labour MPs in Leave seats will prefer May's Deal to EUref2 and there is more support for May's Deal than EUref2.

    Less than 150 MPs voted against invoking Article 50 or for the SM and CU last year, at least 215 will likely vote for May's Deal
    This is where you're badly mistaken. I did read the words you wrote, just (as usual) disagreed with you.

    So what if the Commons rejects EUref2? Its also [by then] rejected May's Deal. If May doesn't have to give up on her Deal just because it has been rejected then why should Remainers who want an EUref2 give up on that just because its been rejected?

    If we add up the numbers there are more MPs nominally or outright in favour of EUref2 than there are in favour of May's Deal.

    All Labour MPs are officially behind a policy of backing EUref2 as a last resort, if the Labour Leadership ever comes out in favour of that only a tiny fraction would rebel against that. The SNP and LDs want that too. PC and almost all others except for DUP back that too. Finally a small number of Tory MPs back that as well.

    There are ~215 MPs in favour of May's Deal.
    There are ~300 MPs in favour of EUref2.

    There is zero reason once May's deal is rejected for die hard remainers to not remain supporting EUref2.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,037

    John Rentoul’s latest thoughts on Brexit:

    If we don't leave this time there will be plenty more chances. The EU is on a collision course with UK ideas on so many issues.
    It’s thanks to ‘Brexiteers’ like you that we probably won’t leave! If we end up having a second referendum and Remain wins, Euroscepticism is done. We will never have another referendum on the issue, because the establishment won’t give us the chance. We might as well apply for ERM II.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 1,664
    Nigelb said:

    The Democrats can’t, and won’t cave. To do so would invite only more of the same; they will call Trump’s bluff whether or not he is bluffing.

    Fortunately, he is essentially a coward, so I don’t expect the shutdown to last more than another two or three weeks.

    It does seem a discussion over small beer - $5 billion is peanuts in the US given the national debt is now nearly $22 trillion.This is more than double the level a decade ago.

    The US spent $2.5 trillion dollars alone on the Iraq war just so George W Bush could get revenge for a slight to his father.

    Its all a lot of fiddling around the edges!
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 1,664

    4. Are cabs getting away with it?

    Yes, to a degree. London’s 21,000 black cabs are among its dirtiest vehicles, diesels that pump out 16% of all transport nitrous oxide (NOx) in central London. Yet this powerful lobby group have been given an exemption, unlike London’s police cars, ambulances and fire engines, many of which will have to be replaced to meet the new standards.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/05/londons-ultra-low-emission-zone-what-you-need-to-know

    Black cabs are seen as public transport for the elite so they don't have to mix with the plebs on buses and tubes. So they are a special case!
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,037

    When the government shutdown ends, are the furloughed employees back-paid for that period, or are they genuinely effectively working for free during the shutdown?


    They are furloughed - so they are not working.

    Americans tend not to get paid holiday.
    So that's what meant by the Land of the Free, eh. Wonderful country. No holiday pay, no sickness insurance unless you pay for it, gerrymandered elections, racial inequality.

    When the government shutdown ends, are the furloughed employees back-paid for that period, or are they genuinely effectively working for free during the shutdown?


    They are furloughed - so they are not working.

    Americans tend not to get paid holiday.
    So that's what meant by the Land of the Free, eh. Wonderful country. No holiday pay, no sickness insurance unless you pay for it, gerrymandered elections, racial inequality.
    The stench of decay is growing stronger. I presume the Chinese are waiting to overtake the USA in total GDP before they scrap exchange controls on their currency. The cascade of funds from the USA to China will see the USA fall a long way.

    I see zero evidence that the USA is prepared for a future in which they are Number 2. They could learn a lot from us.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 7,512
    edited January 5
    @OldKingCole @AndyJS

    In a previous post[X] I discussed the possibility of a new referendum. The PPERA: the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act 2000[1] lays down the minimum timescale between announcement and referendum, and it's about two-three months. The act also contains clauses that allow that period to be reduced, *but* those clauses have to be activated by a new referendum act that specifies the shorter period, and I doubt that such an act would be passed.

    So I don't believe a 2nd referendum will be held.

    [X] https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/2150711/#Comment_2150711

    The previous post is reproduced below:

    -------------------------------------------

    Don't congratulate me just yet: I'm speed-reading the PPERA: the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act 2000.[1] It goes like this:

    1) A Bill has to be introduced[3]
    2) The Commission shall consider the wording of the referendum and shall publish a statement of any views of the Commission as soon as reasonably practicable after the Bill is introduced[3]
    3) You have to pass an Act. I don't know how fast it takes to get thru committee, HoC, HoL and Queen consent
    4) Once passed, participants have 28 days to apply to the Electoral Commission to become a permitted participant.[4]
    5) After that 28 days, the EC have 14 days to say yea or nay to the applicant.[4]
    6) After that 14 days, the ref must then be at least 28 days after that.[2]

    However, the PPERA is littered with things like "The Secretary of State may...by order provide for...the periods of 28 and 14 days...was instead such shorter or longer period as is specified in the order."[4]

    So. The period specified in the PPERA is quite lengthy and measured, but the PPERA also contains getout clauses that can reduce the period quite dramatically. It's theoretically possible for the referendum period after the Act is passed to be just one day, but that's driving a coach-and-horses thru the whole thing and even this Parliament is not that crazy. At this point, my recommendation that Parliament be bypassed entirely via order-in-Council begins to look sensible in comparison.

    FURTHER READING
    [1] https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2000/41/contents
    [2] https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2000/41/section/103
    [3] https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2000/41/section/104
    [4] https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2000/41/section/109

    PS IANAL.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 50,971
    justin124 said:

    FPT
    HYUFD said
    'Utter rubbish, every poll now has Brexit as the most important issue facing the UK.'

    Yet again you fail to understand the difference between an issue being 'important' and it being 'salient'. The experience of the 2017 election adds weight to the comments of people such as Nick Palmer - which have far more credence than those made by someone long revealed to be a Tory party hack.

    No, many Remainers only voted Labour in 2017 as they thought that was the only way to stop hard Brexit which for them was the most salient issue facing the country, if Corbyn enables a No Deal Brexit many of them would then switch to the LDs
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 50,971
    viewcode said:
    So once the Commons also votes down EUref2 and Norway Plus?
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,037

    4. Are cabs getting away with it?

    Yes, to a degree. London’s 21,000 black cabs are among its dirtiest vehicles, diesels that pump out 16% of all transport nitrous oxide (NOx) in central London. Yet this powerful lobby group have been given an exemption, unlike London’s police cars, ambulances and fire engines, many of which will have to be replaced to meet the new standards.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/05/londons-ultra-low-emission-zone-what-you-need-to-know

    Sadiq Khan never saw a lobby group he didn’t want to appease.

    Let’s compare black cabs and Uber:
    1) Uber is dramatically cheaper
    2) Uber cars are usually cleaner on the inside
    3) Uber cars are more comfortable
    4) Uber drivers are more attentive re temperature and radio station
    5) The Knowledge is redundant in the age of sat navs

    The sooner black cabs are a historical artefact the better. Perhaps we can keep 100 on the roads for sentimental reasons, like the Routemasters on routes 9 and 13.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 1,385
    edited January 5

    When the government shutdown ends, are the furloughed employees back-paid for that period, or are they genuinely effectively working for free during the shutdown?

    They'll get backpay later via separate legislation.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 1,664
    edited January 5
    HYUFD said:

    The Democratic de facto leader until their presidential nominee is chosen is now Nancy Pelosi, having been voted Speaker of the House of Representatives last week she is now the most powerful US politician after Trump. As a very tough operator and effective legislator Pelosi will not back down an inch as neither will Trump and I expect it will pave the way for a very partisan 2020 campaign, with the Democrats choosing a populist like Sanders or Warren to take the fight to Trump

    I really can't see Warren being picked at all - unless the Dems want a repeat of 2016. She would be Trump's choice - Pocohontas or Liarwatha as she would constantly be labelled by him.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 50,971
    edited January 5

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    May will simply wait for the Grieve amendment to kick in.

    Then once MPs comfortably reject EUref2 and Norway plus, probably by bigger margins than they reject the Deal, the Deal becomes the default alternative to No Deal
    Not true. Labour policy is officially to support EURef2 as a last resort.

    Why should 100 Labour Remainers break a three line whip to save a Tory PMs hated deal when they can hold out for a referendum? Labour+SNP+LD etc backing EURef2 has more support than May's Deal.
    You clearly have not bothereMay's Deal
    This is where you're badly mistaken. I did read the words you wrote, just (as usual) disagreed with you.

    So what if the Commons rejects EUref2? Its also [by then] rejected May's Deal. If May doesn't have to give up on her Deal just because it has been rejected then why should Remainers who want an EUref2 give up on that just because its been rejected?

    If we add up the numbers there are more MPs nominally or outright in favour of EUref2 than there are in favour of May's Deal.

    All Labour MPs are officially behind a policy of backing EUref2 as a last resort, if the Labour Leadership ever comes out in favour of that only a tiny fraction would rebel against that. The SNP and LDs want that too. PC and almost all others except for DUP back that too. Finally a small number of Tory MPs back that as well.

    There are ~215 MPs in favour of May's Deal.
    There are ~300 MPs in favour of EUref2.

    There is zero reason once May's deal is rejected for die hard remainers to not remain supporting EUref2.
    No it is not clear there are more MPs in favour of EUref2 than May's Deal, only 122 MPs voted not to trigger Article 50 and invoke Brexit, about 215 are likely to back the Deal.


    No all Labour MPs are not behind a policy of backing EUref2 as a last resort, Hoey, Field and Skinner and Mann and other Labour Leavers certainly not, many Labour MPs in Leave seats like Flint and Snell will also oppose EUref2. The vast majority of Tory MPs will vote against EUref2 as will the DUP so the Deal could well get more votes than EUref2.


    So there is every reason once EUref2 is rejected for Remainers or at least certainly Labour MPs in Leave seats to switch behind it as a last resort to avoid No Deal
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 50,971
    brendan16 said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Democratic de facto leader until their presidential nominee is chosen is now Nancy Pelosi, having been voted Speaker of the House of Representatives last week she is now the most powerful US politician after Trump. As a very tough operator and effective legislator Pelosi will not back down an inch as neither will Trump and I expect it will pave the way for a very partisan 2020 campaign, with the Democrats choosing a populist like Sanders or Warren to take the fight to Trump

    I really can't see Warren being picked at all - unless the Dems want a repeat of 2016. She would be Trump's choice - Pocohontas or Liarwatha as she would constantly be labelled by him.

    Sanders is more likely, I expect Warren to back him after the first few primaries, especially if Sanders wins New Hampshire again
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 3,948
    eek said:

    viewcode said:
    Does this apply to referenda too?
    It's 1 attempt per Parliamentary year - hence once the meaningful vote is voted down the options are technically No Deal leaving or revoking...
    Unless Mrs May represents her Deal with an extra condition - namely a referendum to confirm it. That would be a different bill.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 50,971
    eek said:

    viewcode said:
    Does this apply to referenda too?
    It's 1 attempt per Parliamentary year - hence once the meaningful vote is voted down the options are technically No Deal leaving or revoking...
    Conventions are just that, they have no legislative force. If the executive decides to press on regardless that is what will happen
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 7,073

    When the government shutdown ends, are the furloughed employees back-paid for that period, or are they genuinely effectively working for free during the shutdown?


    They are furloughed - so they are not working.

    Americans tend not to get paid holiday.
    So that's what meant by the Land of the Free, eh. Wonderful country. No holiday pay, no sickness insurance unless you pay for it, gerrymandered elections, racial inequality.
    ... and lots of guns, don't forget the guns!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 18,574
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    May will simply wait for the Grieve amendment to kick in.

    Then once MPs comfortably reject EUref2 and Norway plus, probably by bigger margins than they reject the Deal, the Deal becomes the default alternative to No Deal
    Not true. Labour policy is officially to support EURef2 as a last resort.

    Why should 100 Labour Remainers break a three line whip to save a Tory PMs hated deal when they can hold out for a referendum? Labour+SNP+LD etc backing EURef2 has more support than May's Deal.
    You clearly have not bothereMay's Deal
    This is where you're badly mistaken. I did read the words you wrote, just (as usual) disagreed with you.

    So what if the Commons rejects EUref2? Its also [by then] rejected May's Deal. If May doesn't have to give up on her Deal just because it has been rejected then why should Remainers who want an EUref2 give up on that just because its been rejected?

    If we add up the numbers there are more MPs nominally or outright in favour of EUref2 than there are in favour of May's Deal.

    All Labour MPs are officially behind a policy of backing EUref2 as a last resort, if the Labour Leadership ever comes out in favour of that only a tiny fraction would rebel against that. The SNP and LDs want that too. PC and almost all others except for DUP back that too. Finally a small number of Tory MPs back that as well.

    There are ~215 MPs in favour of May's Deal.
    There are ~300 MPs in favour of EUref2.

    There is zero reason once May's deal is rejected for die hard remainers to not remain supporting EUref2.
    No it is not clear there are more MPs in favour of EUref2 than May's Deal, only 122 MPs voted not to trigger Article 50 and invoke Brexit, about 215 are likely to back the Deal.


    No all Labour MPs are not behind a policy of backing EUref2 as a last resort, Hoey, Field and Skinner and Mann and other Labour Leavers certainly not, many Labour MPs in Leave seats like Flint and Snell will also oppose EUref2. The vast majority of Tory MPs will vote against EUref2 as will the DUP so the Deal could well get more votes than EUref2.


    So there is every reason once EUref2 is rejected for Remainers or at least certainly Labour MPs in Leave seats to switch behind it as a last resort to avoid No Deal
    It is official Labour Party Policy to have EUref2 if they can't get their own deal or an election.

    Hoey, Skinner and Mann may rebel but then so too would Grieve, Woolaston and others on the Tory benches would too. That leaves approximately 300 MPs lined up officially behind EUref2, no reason for them to back a crap deal.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 7,073
    Barnesian said:

    eek said:

    viewcode said:
    Does this apply to referenda too?
    It's 1 attempt per Parliamentary year - hence once the meaningful vote is voted down the options are technically No Deal leaving or revoking...
    Unless Mrs May represents her Deal with an extra condition - namely a referendum to confirm it. That would be a different bill.
    I thought, in any event, that convention only applied to the passage of a bill. This is a just a 'meaningful vote'; I don't think the convention applies.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 26,039
    RoyalBlue said:

    When the government shutdown ends, are the furloughed employees back-paid for that period, or are they genuinely effectively working for free during the shutdown?


    They are furloughed - so they are not working.

    Americans tend not to get paid holiday.
    So that's what meant by the Land of the Free, eh. Wonderful country. No holiday pay, no sickness insurance unless you pay for it, gerrymandered elections, racial inequality.

    When the government shutdown ends, are the furloughed employees back-paid for that period, or are they genuinely effectively working for free during the shutdown?


    They are furloughed - so they are not working.

    Americans tend not to get paid holiday.
    So that's what meant by the Land of the Free, eh. Wonderful country. No holiday pay, no sickness insurance unless you pay for it, gerrymandered elections, racial inequality.
    The stench of decay is growing stronger. I presume the Chinese are waiting to overtake the USA in total GDP before they scrap exchange controls on their currency. The cascade of funds from the USA to China will see the USA fall a long way.

    I see zero evidence that the USA is prepared for a future in which they are Number 2. They could learn a lot from us.
    I wonder if “America first” might morph into “Americas first” as a foreign policy doctrine.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 7,073

    RoyalBlue said:

    When the government shutdown ends, are the furloughed employees back-paid for that period, or are they genuinely effectively working for free during the shutdown?


    They are furloughed - so they are not working.

    Americans tend not to get paid holiday.
    So that's what meant by the Land of the Free, eh. Wonderful country. No holiday pay, no sickness insurance unless you pay for it, gerrymandered elections, racial inequality.

    When the government shutdown ends, are the furloughed employees back-paid for that period, or are they genuinely effectively working for free during the shutdown?


    They are furloughed - so they are not working.

    Americans tend not to get paid holiday.
    So that's what meant by the Land of the Free, eh. Wonderful country. No holiday pay, no sickness insurance unless you pay for it, gerrymandered elections, racial inequality.
    The stench of decay is growing stronger. I presume the Chinese are waiting to overtake the USA in total GDP before they scrap exchange controls on their currency. The cascade of funds from the USA to China will see the USA fall a long way.

    I see zero evidence that the USA is prepared for a future in which they are Number 2. They could learn a lot from us.
    I wonder if “America first” might morph into “Americas first” as a foreign policy doctrine.
    Sorry, the nuance is lost on me. ??
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 10,621
    brendan16 said:

    Nigelb said:

    The Democrats can’t, and won’t cave. To do so would invite only more of the same; they will call Trump’s bluff whether or not he is bluffing.

    Fortunately, he is essentially a coward, so I don’t expect the shutdown to last more than another two or three weeks.

    It does seem a discussion over small beer - $5 billion is peanuts in the US given the national debt is now nearly $22 trillion.This is more than double the level a decade ago.

    The US spent $2.5 trillion dollars alone on the Iraq war just so George W Bush could get revenge for a slight to his father.

    Its all a lot of fiddling around the edges!
    It's about controlling a rogue President, not the money.
    Giving in to him on this is simply unthinkable as the first action of a Democratic House of Representatives.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 10,621
    HYUFD said:

    brendan16 said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Democratic de facto leader until their presidential nominee is chosen is now Nancy Pelosi, having been voted Speaker of the House of Representatives last week she is now the most powerful US politician after Trump. As a very tough operator and effective legislator Pelosi will not back down an inch as neither will Trump and I expect it will pave the way for a very partisan 2020 campaign, with the Democrats choosing a populist like Sanders or Warren to take the fight to Trump

    I really can't see Warren being picked at all - unless the Dems want a repeat of 2016. She would be Trump's choice - Pocohontas or Liarwatha as she would constantly be labelled by him.

    Sanders is more likely, I expect Warren to back him after the first few primaries, especially if Sanders wins New Hampshire again
    Sanders isn't a Democrat.
    He is a socialist, and Warren isn't. I don't expect her to do anything of the sort.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 26,039

    RoyalBlue said:

    When the government shutdown ends, are the furloughed employees back-paid for that period, or are they genuinely effectively working for free during the shutdown?


    They are furloughed - so they are not working.

    Americans tend not to get paid holiday.
    So that's what meant by the Land of the Free, eh. Wonderful country. No holiday pay, no sickness insurance unless you pay for it, gerrymandered elections, racial inequality.

    When the government shutdown ends, are the furloughed employees back-paid for that period, or are they genuinely effectively working for free during the shutdown?


    They are furloughed - so they are not working.

    Americans tend not to get paid holiday.
    So that's what meant by the Land of the Free, eh. Wonderful country. No holiday pay, no sickness insurance unless you pay for it, gerrymandered elections, racial inequality.
    The stench of decay is growing stronger. I presume the Chinese are waiting to overtake the USA in total GDP before they scrap exchange controls on their currency. The cascade of funds from the USA to China will see the USA fall a long way.

    I see zero evidence that the USA is prepared for a future in which they are Number 2. They could learn a lot from us.
    I wonder if “America first” might morph into “Americas first” as a foreign policy doctrine.
    Sorry, the nuance is lost on me. ??
    I.e. focused on the Americas rather than the whole world. A logical extension of Trumpism is that ensuring the prosperity and stability of Latin America is a vital interest for the USA.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 1,664
    edited January 5

    When the government shutdown ends, are the furloughed employees back-paid for that period, or are they genuinely effectively working for free during the shutdown?


    They are furloughed - so they are not working.

    Americans tend not to get paid holiday.
    So that's what meant by the Land of the Free, eh. Wonderful country. No holiday pay, no sickness insurance unless you pay for it, gerrymandered elections, racial inequality.
    ... and lots of guns, don't forget the guns!
    The countries with the 3rd and 4th highest gun ownership rates in the world are on some surveys Switzerland (nearly 60% of the US level) and Finland - which suggests widespread gun ownership isn't the entire cause of the problem! The Falkland islands also rank very high on surveys - yet we don't hear much detail on the homicide rate in Port Stanley.

    There are also over 90 nations with higher homicide rates than the US - all of which have lower gun ownership levels per capita.

    The main reason we care _and mostly ignore the higher homicide rates in the other 90 odd nations - is because American lives appear to matter to us and the media - and Yemeni or Honduran ones from example don't.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 16,641

    When the government shutdown ends, are the furloughed employees back-paid for that period, or are they genuinely effectively working for free during the shutdown?


    They are furloughed - so they are not working.

    Americans tend not to get paid holiday.
    So that's what meant by the Land of the Free, eh. Wonderful country. No holiday pay, no sickness insurance unless you pay for it, gerrymandered elections, racial inequality.
    ... and lots of guns, don't forget the guns!
    The guns are automatic.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 10,621
    ydoethur said:

    When the government shutdown ends, are the furloughed employees back-paid for that period, or are they genuinely effectively working for free during the shutdown?


    They are furloughed - so they are not working.

    Americans tend not to get paid holiday.
    So that's what meant by the Land of the Free, eh. Wonderful country. No holiday pay, no sickness insurance unless you pay for it, gerrymandered elections, racial inequality.
    ... and lots of guns, don't forget the guns!
    The guns are automatic.
    Only semi-true.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,972
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    brendan16 said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Democratic de facto leader until their presidential nominee is chosen is now Nancy Pelosi, having been voted Speaker of the House of Representatives last week she is now the most powerful US politician after Trump. As a very tough operator and effective legislator Pelosi will not back down an inch as neither will Trump and I expect it will pave the way for a very partisan 2020 campaign, with the Democrats choosing a populist like Sanders or Warren to take the fight to Trump

    I really can't see Warren being picked at all - unless the Dems want a repeat of 2016. She would be Trump's choice - Pocohontas or Liarwatha as she would constantly be labelled by him.

    Sanders is more likely, I expect Warren to back him after the first few primaries, especially if Sanders wins New Hampshire again
    Sanders isn't a Democrat.
    He is a socialist, and Warren isn't. I don't expect her to do anything of the sort.
    And Bernie's selfishness in 2016 went a long way to getting Trump into the White House.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 50,971

    RoyalBlue said:

    When the government shutdown ends, are the furloughed employees back-paid for that period, or are they genuinely effectively working for free during the shutdown?


    They are furloughed - so they are not working.

    Americans tend not to get paid holiday.
    So that's what meant by the Land of the Free, eh. Wonderful country. No holiday pay, no sickness insurance unless you pay for it, gerrymandered elections, racial inequality.

    When the government shutdown ends, are the furloughed employees back-paid for that period, or are they genuinely effectively working for free during the shutdown?


    They are furloughed - so they are not working.

    Americans tend not to get paid holiday.
    So that's what meant by the Land of the Free, eh. Wonderful country. No holiday pay, no sickness insurance unless you pay for it, gerrymandered elections, racial inequality.
    The stench of decay is growing stronger. I presume the Chinese are waiting to overtake the USA in total GDP before they scrap exchange controls on their currency. The cascade of funds from the USA to China will see the USA fall a long way.

    I see zero evidence that the USA is prepared for a future in which they are Number 2. They could learn a lot from us.
    I wonder if “America first” might morph into “Americas first” as a foreign policy doctrine.
    Good luck trying to get Trump, Lopez Obrador, Bolsonaro and Trudeau to agree a common foreign policy position
  • felixfelix Posts: 8,459

    John Rentoul’s latest thoughts on Brexit:

    I think he is on the money - and as a Remain voter I'd happily live with this as there'd be no subversion of democracy involved.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 50,971

    When the government shutdown ends, are the furloughed employees back-paid for that period, or are they genuinely effectively working for free during the shutdown?


    They are furloughed - so they are not working.

    Americans tend not to get paid holiday.
    So that's what meant by the Land of the Free, eh. Wonderful country. No holiday pay, no sickness insurance unless you pay for it, gerrymandered elections, racial inequality.
    The US is a country which is fine if you are rich, investment bankers, corporate lawyers and surgeons and CEOs etc earn even more there than here and can easily afford private schools and private health insurance, nannies and be able to take expensive holidays.


    However if you are a middle earner or poor or out of work the US provides no holiday pay, no maternity or paternity leave, no unemployment benefits without having made enough insurance payments and then time limited and no state healthcare unless for the very poor or retired. If you are in those groups Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Western Europe provide more support and more of a safety net than the US
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 15,142

    John Rentoul’s latest thoughts on Brexit:

    If we don't leave this time there will be plenty more chances. The EU is on a collision course with UK ideas on so many issues.
    If we get off this horror ride, public appetite for going back round to the kiosk and paying for another go will be precisely zero. Or at least only the usual suspects striking up awkward conversations with strangers on buses.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 7,073

    RoyalBlue said:

    When the government shutdown ends, are the furloughed employees back-paid for that period, or are they genuinely effectively working for free during the shutdown?


    They are furloughed - so they are not working.

    Americans tend not to get paid holiday.
    So that's what meant by the Land of the Free, eh. Wonderful country. No holiday pay, no sickness insurance unless you pay for it, gerrymandered elections, racial inequality.

    When the government shutdown ends, are the furloughed employees back-paid for that period, or are they genuinely effectively working for free during the shutdown?


    They are furloughed - so they are not working.

    Americans tend not to get paid holiday.
    So that's what meant by the Land of the Free, eh. Wonderful country. No holiday pay, no sickness insurance unless you pay for it, gerrymandered elections, racial inequality.
    The stench of decay is growing stronger. I presume the Chinese are waiting to overtake the USA in total GDP before they scrap exchange controls on their currency. The cascade of funds from the USA to China will see the USA fall a long way.

    I see zero evidence that the USA is prepared for a future in which they are Number 2. They could learn a lot from us.
    I wonder if “America first” might morph into “Americas first” as a foreign policy doctrine.
    Sorry, the nuance is lost on me. ??
    I.e. focused on the Americas rather than the whole world. A logical extension of Trumpism is that ensuring the prosperity and stability of Latin America is a vital interest for the USA.
    Ah right, thanks.

    I am not sure there is a shred of strategic thinking in Trump's brain though tbh.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 50,971

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    May will simply wait for the Grieve amendment to kick in.

    Then once MPs comfortably reject EUref2 and Norway plus, probably by bigger margins than they reject the Deal, the Deal becomes the default alternative to No Deal
    Not true. Labour policy is officially to support EURef2 as a last resort.

    Why should 100 Labour Remainers break a three line whip to save a Tory PMs hated deal when they can hold out for a referendum? Labour+SNP+LD etc backing EURef2 has more support than May's Deal.
    You clearly have not bothereMay's Deal
    This is where you're badly mistaken. I did read the words you wrote, just (as usual) disagreed with you.

    So what if the Commons rejects EUref2? Its also [by then] rejected May's Deal. If May doesn't have to give up on her Deal just because it has been rejected then why should Remainers who want an EUref2 give up on that just because its been rejected?

    If we add up the numbers there are more MPs nominally or outright in favour of EUref2 than there are in favour of May's Deal.

    All Labour MPs are offf2.
    No it is not clear there are more MPs in favour of EUref2 than May's Deal, only 122 MPs voted not to trigger Article 50 and invoke Brexit, about 215 are likely to back the Deal.


    No all Labour MPs are not behind a policy ooid No Deal
    It is official Labour Party Policy to have EUref2 if they can't get their own deal or an election.

    Hoey, Skinner and Mann may rebel but then so too would Grieve, Woolaston and others on the Tory benches would too. That leaves approximately 300 MPs lined up officially behind EUref2, no reason for them to back a crap deal.

    Corbyn has not officially committed to EUref2 regardless of circumstance, plenty of Labour MPs from Leave seats like Flint and Snell have also refused to back EUref2 or any Norway style deal which leaves free movement in place and they can be added to Hoey, Skinner and Mann so it is optimistic to suggest EUref2 would get up to 300 MPs or anywhere close to it especially once you add the vast majority of Tory MPs, both Deal backers and the ERG and the DUP voting against EUref2 too
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,037
    HYUFD said:

    When the government shutdown ends, are the furloughed employees back-paid for that period, or are they genuinely effectively working for free during the shutdown?


    They are furloughed - so they are not working.

    Americans tend not to get paid holiday.
    So that's what meant by the Land of the Free, eh. Wonderful country. No holiday pay, no sickness insurance unless you pay for it, gerrymandered elections, racial inequality.
    The US is a country which is fine if you are rich, investment bankers, corporate lawyers and surgeons and CEOs etc earn even more there than here and can easily afford private schools and private health insurance, nannies and be able to take expensive holidays.


    However if you are a middle earner or poor or out of work the US provides no holiday pay, no maternity or paternity leave, no unemployment benefits without having made enough insurance payments and then time limited and no state healthcare unless for the very poor or retired. If you are in those groups Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Western Europe provide more support and more of a safety net than the US
    The USA is closer to Latin America than Europe in many respects. This would become much more apparent if the dollar loses its role as the indispensable currency.

    I’m sure the Chinese are working on it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 50,971
    edited January 5
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    brendan16 said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Democratic de facto leader until their presidential nominee is chosen is now Nancy Pelosi, having been voted Speaker of the House of Representatives last week she is now the most powerful US politician after Trump. As a very tough operator and effective legislator Pelosi will not back down an inch as neither will Trump and I expect it will pave the way for a very partisan 2020 campaign, with the Democrats choosing a populist like Sanders or Warren to take the fight to Trump

    I really can't see Warren being picked at all - unless the Dems want a repeat of 2016. She would be Trump's choice - Pocohontas or Liarwatha as she would constantly be labelled by him.

    Sanders is more likely, I expect Warren to back him after the first few primaries, especially if Sanders wins New Hampshire again
    Sanders isn't a Democrat.
    He is a socialist, and Warren isn't. I don't expect her to do anything of the sort.
    Warren and Sanders have been liasing closely already, while both plan to run they are both on the populist left of the Democratic party and if one drops out the other will almost certainly benefit from their support.


    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/13/us/politics/elizabeth-warren-bernie-sanders-2020.html
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 16,641
    If anyone wants to read a very disturbing story:

    Arizona police investigate after 'vegetative patient gives birth'
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-46768242

    Be warned, it is not a nice story at all.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 16,641

    RoyalBlue said:

    When the government shutdown ends, are the furloughed employees back-paid for that period, or are they genuinely effectively working for free during the shutdown?


    They are furloughed - so they are not working.

    Americans tend not to get paid holiday.
    So that's what meant by the Land of the Free, eh. Wonderful country. No holiday pay, no sickness insurance unless you pay for it, gerrymandered elections, racial inequality.

    When the government shutdown ends, are the furloughed employees back-paid for that period, or are they genuinely effectively working for free during the shutdown?


    They are furloughed - so they are not working.

    Americans tend not to get paid holiday.
    So that's what meant by the Land of the Free, eh. Wonderful country. No holiday pay, no sickness insurance unless you pay for it, gerrymandered elections, racial inequality.
    The stench of decay is growing stronger. I presume the Chinese are waiting to overtake the USA in total GDP before they scrap exchange controls on their currency. The cascade of funds from the USA to China will see the USA fall a long way.

    I see zero evidence that the USA is prepared for a future in which they are Number 2. They could learn a lot from us.
    I wonder if “America first” might morph into “Americas first” as a foreign policy doctrine.
    Sorry, the nuance is lost on me. ??
    I.e. focused on the Americas rather than the whole world. A logical extension of Trumpism is that ensuring the prosperity and stability of Latin America is a vital interest for the USA.
    Ah right, thanks.

    I am not sure there is a shred of strategic thinking in Trump's brain though tbh.
    I'm surprised, Mr Pointer.

    What leads you to think Trump has a brain?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 50,971
    RoyalBlue said:

    HYUFD said:

    When the government shutdown ends, are the furloughed employees back-paid for that period, or are they genuinely effectively working for free during the shutdown?


    They are furloughed - so they are not working.

    Americans tend not to get paid holiday.
    So that's what meant by the Land of the Free, eh. Wonderful country. No holiday pay, no sickness insurance unless you pay for it, gerrymandered elections, racial inequality.
    The US is a country which is fine if you are rich, investment bankers, corporate lawyers and surgeons and CEOs etc earn even more there than here and can easily afford private schools and private health insurance, nannies and be able to take expensive holidays.


    However if you are a middle earner or poor or out of work the US provides no holiday pay, no paid maternity or paternity leave, no unemployment benefits without having made enough insurance payments and then time limited and no state healthcare unless for the very poor or retired. If you are in those groups Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Western Europe provide more support and more of a safety net than the US
    The USA is closer to Latin America than Europe in many respects. This would become much more apparent if the dollar loses its role as the indispensable currency.

    I’m sure the Chinese are working on it.
    As if only by accident than design is Trump
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 14,130
    ydoethur said:

    If anyone wants to read a very disturbing story:

    Arizona police investigate after 'vegetative patient gives birth'
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-46768242

    Be warned, it is not a nice story at all.

    At one time I worked in a large Mental Handicap unit, as the reforms were coming in. Some of the patients were very handicapped indeed, but every couple of years or so one of the younger females would become pregnant.
    It was before DNA testing, of course so, in the face of denials no one, AFAIK, ever admitted paternity.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 50,971
    edited January 5

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    brendan16 said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Democratic de facto leader until their presidential nominee is chosen is now Nancy Pelosi, having been voted Speaker of the House of Representatives last week she is now the most powerful US politician after Trump. As a very tough operator and effective legislator Pelosi will not back down an inch as neither will Trump and I expect it will pave the way for a very partisan 2020 campaign, with the Democrats choosing a populist like Sanders or Warren to take the fight to Trump

    I really can't see Warren being picked at all - unless the Dems want a repeat of 2016. She would be Trump's choice - Pocohontas or Liarwatha as she would constantly be labelled by him.

    Sanders is more likely, I expect Warren to back him after the first few primaries, especially if Sanders wins New Hampshire again
    Sanders isn't a Democrat.
    He is a socialist, and Warren isn't. I don't expect her to do anything of the sort.
    And Bernie's selfishness in 2016 went a long way to getting Trump into the White House.
    It was Hillary who lost to Trump remember not Bernie, Bernie at least had the guts to challenge her unlike most Democrats and ran her far closer than expected.


    Had Bernie been nominee he would likely have done better in the rustbelt than Hillary and may well have won Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan and the Electoral College and the Presidency.

    Trump will beat another liberal elitist coastal Democrat like Hillary, if the Democrats want to beat Trump they need a candidate who can win back more Midwestern white rustbelt bluecollar voters otherwise Trump will be re elected
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 2,113
    ydoethur said:

    If anyone wants to read a very disturbing story:

    Arizona police investigate after 'vegetative patient gives birth'
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-46768242

    Be warned, it is not a nice story at all.

    No thanks. Why are you posting it?
    In more positive news, the Telegraph has employed William Sitwell (sacked by Waitrose because he outraged vegans with a joke) as restaurant critic, and my old buddy Peter Lilley has found 30 reasons to be cheerful about no deal.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 17,477
    edited January 5

    The British yellow vest movement is off to a flying start.

    Dear me William. Repeating fake news?

    It was an EDL march and had nothing to do with Greggs. But a clever photo op by someone. Still a bunch of f*ckwits but for a different reason.

    As an aside I am intending actively hunting down a Greggs to try one of these Veggie rolls. Greggs products do seem to have that perfect taste combination of grease and salt that I crave.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,037
    The Henry Jackson Society don’t do themselves any favours when they claim that the U.K. is a greater power than China:

    https://www.newsweek.com/worlds-most-powerful-country-china-rising-1279926?amp=1

    How delusional can one be? I don’t think even JRM would claim such a thing.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 11,891
    I think the deadlock will last as long as the polls don't show one side to be suffering major political damage. When it does, they'll cave.

    As a Sanders sympathiser (who regards Warren with suspicion - a progressive who's a proud capitalist and didn't support Sanders against Clinton?), I'm not convinced that the sex allegations about Sanders' staff will damage him. How can you be "shamefully ignorant" of something? Only if you have an obligation to know and a feasible way of finding out, e.g. an engine driver checking that the engine isn't overheating. If your employees are committing sexual misconduct and nobody tells you, how are you supposed to know?

    There are other reasons to be doubtful about Sanders - age, electability - but if the question is who is the most left-wing it's no contest.

    Brendan re Swiss guns - yes, most male adults have an Army rifle. But they don't normally have ammunition - it will be issued to them in a crisis. And they dcertainly don't have the semi-automatics seen in the US.

    That said, although the murder rate in Switzerland is extraordinarily low, the proportion committed with guns is higher than most countries, so presumably if you're nutty enough you can get the ammo somehow.

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 7,073
    geoffw said:

    ydoethur said:

    If anyone wants to read a very disturbing story:

    Arizona police investigate after 'vegetative patient gives birth'
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-46768242

    Be warned, it is not a nice story at all.

    No thanks. Why are you posting it?
    In more positive news, the Telegraph has employed William Sitwell (sacked by Waitrose because he outraged vegans with a joke) as restaurant critic, and my old buddy Peter Lilley has found 30 reasons to be cheerful about no deal.
    Sitwell's 'joke' was pretty crass though - I think he had to go.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 7,073
    Some irony in Brexiteer extremists trying to copy the French...

    "Girl, 13, arrested in London 'yellow-vest' pro-Brexit protest"

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/jan/05/girl-13-arrested-in-london-yellow-vest-brexit-protest

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 26,039
    RoyalBlue said:

    The Henry Jackson Society don’t do themselves any favours when they claim that the U.K. is a greater power than China:

    https://www.newsweek.com/worlds-most-powerful-country-china-rising-1279926?amp=1

    How delusional can one be? I don’t think even JRM would claim such a thing.

    Some of the detail in the HJS report is truly bizarre:

    image

    image
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 2,113

    geoffw said:

    ydoethur said:

    If anyone wants to read a very disturbing story:

    Arizona police investigate after 'vegetative patient gives birth'
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-46768242

    Be warned, it is not a nice story at all.

    No thanks. Why are you posting it?
    In more positive news, the Telegraph has employed William Sitwell (sacked by Waitrose because he outraged vegans with a joke) as restaurant critic, and my old buddy Peter Lilley has found 30 reasons to be cheerful about no deal.
    Sitwell's 'joke' was pretty crass though - I think he had to go.
    Luckily he's fallen on his feet. Veganism has taken over the BBC as I write.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 3,701
    RoyalBlue said:

    The Henry Jackson Society don’t do themselves any favours when they claim that the U.K. is a greater power than China:

    https://www.newsweek.com/worlds-most-powerful-country-china-rising-1279926?amp=1

    How delusional can one be? I don’t think even JRM would claim such a thing.

    That report links to another by the Hudson Institure which places us 5th, after the US, Russia, China and Germany. We still beat France, who are 6th.

    Personally thinking about military, economic, diplomatic, and cultural clout, I’d say the U.K. still performs quite high. I’d have us 3rd overall, after the US and China.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 7,073
    RoyalBlue said:

    The Henry Jackson Society don’t do themselves any favours when they claim that the U.K. is a greater power than China:

    https://www.newsweek.com/worlds-most-powerful-country-china-rising-1279926?amp=1

    How delusional can one be? I don’t think even JRM would claim such a thing.

    Indeed. Putting Russia down in 10th seems a bit bizarre. I appreciate all is not well in the Russia but they are still able to exter a lot of (often malign) influence over the world. I'd have had the top 5 as USA, China, Russia, Germany, UK
This discussion has been closed.