Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The May government’s net satisfaction ratings are on par with

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited January 6 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The May government’s net satisfaction ratings are on par with Thatcher’s and Cameron’s

Governments are pretty much always unpopular. The anonymous grinding mills of policy and administration rarely inspire enthusiasm, much less devotion. Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver once joked that the US Congress was less popular than Satan, a claim that as far as I can find hasn’t been tested by any pollster (perhaps something for Lord Ashcroft to consider during his American travels).

Read the full story here


«134

Comments

  • RobDRobD Posts: 36,060
    First. Thanks for the header, corporeal.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,536
    This took more spreadsheeting than any normal person would subject themselves to.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,254
    Richard 3rd.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 32,813
    Theresa May’s government is about averagely awful in the eyes of the public. Either the last 40 years of British governments have been almost entirely awful, or the British public loves to hate its governments. Or both. Thank goodness they have the money, power, and status, to help them cope with it.

    You and your data!

    Doncha know Mrs May is the worst Prime Minister since Lord North (or so we are routinely told)?

    Thanks for shedding light amidst the fog - not that it will make the slightest bit of difference to the Mayphobes......
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 40,860
    I love it.

    Of course, people are welcome to suggest May, Cameron, Brown or whoever are indeed leading the worst government since whoever was in power before sliced bread based on analysis of their success, but it does make me chuckle as oppositions, of any stripe, will naturally frame their own opposition as because the public are sick of the government, even if on data like this and similar it's pretty normal (If still bad). The Greens can usually be relied upon to most hilariously and spectacularly act like the voice of the people against the government of the day.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 474
    It goes to show that the Tory brand has a resilience that companies would sell their grannies for. As a lot of the discussions on PB have shown Labour have not made any progress since 2017 (which is starting to seem a while ago) and despite May being sniped at constantly the old warhorse is still there and polling respectably......

    Lab/Lib Dems and the Nats dont seem able to dent them. Even a disorderly BREXIT is startign to appear a real possibility and I am not sure May will get the blame - perhaps she is teflon after all.

    Cant wait for the Peterborough byelection (if it happens) as I think a real dog fight will be on the cards
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,536
    As a side note if you go to my twitter page I'm dumping a few extra charts over there that I didn't like enough to put in the article.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 40,860
    Why even ask that question? Backing the deal is never going to happen. Being seen to 'enable' Brexit might but not in that way so the finding is pointless.

    It goes to show that the Tory brand has a resilience that companies would sell their grannies for. As a lot of the discussions on PB have shown Labour have not made any progress since 2017 (which is starting to seem a while ago) and despite May being sniped at constantly the old warhorse is still there and polling respectably......

    Lab/Lib Dems and the Nats dont seem able to dent them. Even a disorderly BREXIT is startign to appear a real possibility and I am not sure May will get the blame - perhaps she is teflon after all.

    Cant wait for the Peterborough byelection (if it happens) as I think a real dog fight will be on the cards

    I should think labour will win as despite the leavery area and new Tory candidate I think it's a hard pitch to locals when they will be pressed on support for no deal etc which splits the party, but certainly a rare, interesting by election. We remember the exciting ones, the close and the big swings, but most are dull, safe seats these days.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 16,641
    Sandpit said:

    Richard 3rd.

    Why Sandpit? Have you been taking advantage of Christmas to murder your nephews?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 40,860
    edited January 6
    HYUFD said:

    notme2 said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 40% (-1)
    LAB: 34% (-5)
    LDEM: 10% (+3)
    GRN: 4% (-)
    UKIP: 4% (+1)

    via @YouGov, 21 Dec - 04 Jan
    Chgs. w/ 17 Dec

    Labour plunges to just 34% ie Kinnock 1992 levels while the LDs jump to 10% and double figures, Tories largely unchanged on 40%.

    First signs of Remainers moving from Labour to the LDs as Corbyn still refuses to commit to back EUref2?
    No. The Tories have had inexplicably big leads with YouGov before. Likely it will return to smaller leads with them, parity or small lab leads with others.

    It has to change at some point. Has to. But not yet.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 40,860
    edited January 6

    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:



    There will never be a Remain v Deal referendum as the vast majority of the Tory party would vote it down.

    The only possible referendum while we have a Tory PM would be Leave v Remain then if Leave wins Deal v No Deal

    A question I've asked before is: Suppose TMay whipped Deal+Referendum. How Con many rebels would there be? I think previous opinions were around 110 - 130. Are you saying you think it would be more like 300???
    Absolutely. 200 Tory MPs back the Deal, 100 back No Deal barely a handful back Remain.

    I can see May calling a Leave with the Deal or No Deal referendum m
    The question isn't whether ugh.
    Probably not and certainly not without a No Deal option too
    Why would Tory MPs who are voting for the deal want a no deal option?
    An overly-neglected point. A referendum can only m anyway. Oh lord, it's a big steaming mess.
    Neither major party wants a referendum - if forced, the Tories would go 'Deal vs No Deal' - but what about Labour? They've officially rubbished the deal, so they can hardly go 'Deal' vs Remain' - 'No Deal vs Remain' runs an obviously high risk of 'No Deal'.....
    It should, except they think remain will win and their actions suggest they do not fear no deal as much as they might cry about it. Indeed, the only people whose actions indicate they are in huge fear of no deal are May and Gove.

    It won't happen but clearly a very large number of Mps want to just remain and to avoid no deal should just do so. As you say if no deal is terrible and the deal unsupportable what else can you do? But if you want democratic cover to bypass the 2016 vote remain has to be up against something. They woukd have to choose.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,254
    edited January 6
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Richard 3rd.

    Why Sandpit? Have you been taking advantage of Christmas to murder your nephews?
    LOL. I was actually in U.K. for a couple of weeks, spending time with family at a wedding and Christmas. Did think about going to see Richard in Leicester, but went to the space centre instead - and didn’t murder anyone! :tongue:
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 10,361

    Theresa May’s government is about averagely awful in the eyes of the public. Either the last 40 years of British governments have been almost entirely awful, or the British public loves to hate its governments. Or both. Thank goodness they have the money, power, and status, to help them cope with it.

    You and your data!

    Doncha know Mrs May is the worst Prime Minister since Lord North (or so we are routinely told)?

    Thanks for shedding light amidst the fog - not that it will make the slightest bit of difference to the Mayphobes......

    That was David Cameron. Theresa May might be getting some benefit from appearing to be the voice of sanity over Brexit, standing up to the headbangers on either side. As mentioned before, if the economy is doing as well as some claim, then the government should lead, if we put Brexit to one side.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 10,361
    Is there an election in the offing?

    Universal Credit roll-out postponed:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46772901

    NHS 10-year plan to be unveiled tomorrow:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-46771200

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 40,860

    Is there an election in the offing?

    Universal Credit roll-out postponed:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46772901

    NHS 10-year plan to be unveiled tomorrow:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-46771200

    I don't see how much more happens with UC before Labour get in. Too shambolic and toxic for a gov in a precarious situation. I just hope when labour come in they have an actual plan on what to do.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 16,641
    kle4 said:

    I just hope when labour come in they have an actual plan on what to do.

    Given that the people in charge are Corbyn (thick as mince) and Macdonnell (a Maoist who is an unabashed supporter of terrorism) and Seamus Milne (a fluent liar whose work on East Germany would cause David Irving to blush) that strikes me as more optimistic than the person betting on the Aussies to win the fourth test.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 14,130
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    I just hope when labour come in they have an actual plan on what to do.

    Given that the people in charge are Corbyn (thick as mince) and Macdonnell (a Maoist who is an unabashed supporter of terrorism) and Seamus Milne (a fluent liar whose work on East Germany would cause David Irving to blush) that strikes me as more optimistic than the person betting on the Aussies to win the fourth test.
    I do wonder what the responses would be if people were presented with a question that said labour with a different leader..... perhaps Starmer or Benn.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 40,860
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    I just hope when labour come in they have an actual plan on what to do.

    Given that the people in charge are Corbyn (thick as mince) and Macdonnell (a Maoist who is an unabashed supporter of terrorism) and Seamus Milne (a fluent liar whose work on East Germany would cause David Irving to blush) that strikes me as more optimistic than the person betting on the Aussies to win the fourth test.
    The signs are not promising for the country in 2019 in any way on pretty much any possibility which is even slightly plausible. So hoping blindly things won't be as bad as feared is about all we have.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 28,856
    Worth remembering that these days there is no single functioning entity called the Conservative party. That’s how bad Corbyn Labour is.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 16,641

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    I just hope when labour come in they have an actual plan on what to do.

    Given that the people in charge are Corbyn (thick as mince) and Macdonnell (a Maoist who is an unabashed supporter of terrorism) and Seamus Milne (a fluent liar whose work on East Germany would cause David Irving to blush) that strikes me as more optimistic than the person betting on the Aussies to win the fourth test.
    I do wonder what the responses would be if people were presented with a question that said labour with a different leader..... perhaps Starmer or Benn.
    Not mad keen on Starmer. He's better than Corbyn, but in the same way a headache is better than being shot in the head.

    I'd probably vote for a Labour Party led by Benn.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 16,641
    How's this for an amazing story?

    Obituary: Major Geoffrey Langlands, Pakistan's English teacher
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-46757125
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 10,361

    Worth remembering that these days there is no single functioning entity called the Conservative party. That’s how bad Corbyn Labour is.

    And vice versa. I am coming round to the view that Corbyn might be a strategic genius, or at least that he has lucked into a strong position vis-a-vis Brexit. Ignore the froth and the polls, it is hard to see how May's deal can be passed without throwing Corbyn a bone, and if not, then Labour's near-permanent CU/SM neatly sidesteps the DUP's red lines.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 48,075
    Good morning, my fellow Anglo-Saxons.

    Excellent article, Mr. Corporeal. Counter-intuitive indeed.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 40,860

    Good morning, my fellow Anglo-Saxons.

    Excellent article, Mr. Corporeal. Counter-intuitive indeed.

    No greeting for any Celts among us?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 23,834

    Worth remembering that these days there is no single functioning entity called the Conservative party. That’s how bad Corbyn Labour is.

    And vice versa. I am coming round to the view that Corbyn might be a strategic genius, or at least that he has lucked into a strong position vis-a-vis Brexit. Ignore the froth and the polls, it is hard to see how May's deal can be passed without throwing Corbyn a bone, and if not, then Labour's near-permanent CU/SM neatly sidesteps the DUP's red lines.
    It doesn't quite so neatly side-step what the people voted for in 2016 and 2017.....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 23,834

    Theresa May’s government is about averagely awful in the eyes of the public. Either the last 40 years of British governments have been almost entirely awful, or the British public loves to hate its governments. Or both. Thank goodness they have the money, power, and status, to help them cope with it.

    You and your data!

    Doncha know Mrs May is the worst Prime Minister since Lord North (or so we are routinely told)?

    Thanks for shedding light amidst the fog - not that it will make the slightest bit of difference to the Mayphobes......

    That was David Cameron. Theresa May might be getting some benefit from appearing to be the voice of sanity over Brexit, standing up to the headbangers on either side. As mentioned before, if the economy is doing as well as some claim, then the government should lead, if we put Brexit to one side.
    Most voters DO put Brexit to one side.....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 23,834
    kle4 said:

    Why even ask that question? Backing the deal is never going to happen. Being seen to 'enable' Brexit might but not in that way so the finding is pointless.

    It goes to show that the Tory brand has a resilience that companies would sell their grannies for. As a lot of the discussions on PB have shown Labour have not made any progress since 2017 (which is starting to seem a while ago) and despite May being sniped at constantly the old warhorse is still there and polling respectably......

    Lab/Lib Dems and the Nats dont seem able to dent them. Even a disorderly BREXIT is startign to appear a real possibility and I am not sure May will get the blame - perhaps she is teflon after all.

    Cant wait for the Peterborough byelection (if it happens) as I think a real dog fight will be on the cards

    I should think labour will win as despite the leavery area and new Tory candidate I think it's a hard pitch to locals when they will be pressed on support for no deal etc which splits the party, but certainly a rare, interesting by election. We remember the exciting ones, the close and the big swings, but most are dull, safe seats these days.
    I'd think the Tories are well placed in Peterborough. Voters for a party get pissed off having to go out to vote again when it is down to the stupidity or criminal action of their previous incumbent.

    Exhibit A: One of the biggest recent Tory -> LibDem swings in Devon was when the former Tory councillor was jailed for hitting his wife with a hammer.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 10,204
    Really interesting Corporeal, thank you.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 40,860

    kle4 said:

    Why even ask that question? Backing the deal is never going to happen. Being seen to 'enable' Brexit might but not in that way so the finding is pointless.

    It goes to show that the Tory brand has a resilience that companies would sell their grannies for. As a lot of the discussions on PB have shown Labour have not made any progress since 2017 (which is starting to seem a while ago) and despite May being sniped at constantly the old warhorse is still there and polling respectably......

    Lab/Lib Dems and the Nats dont seem able to dent them. Even a disorderly BREXIT is startign to appear a real possibility and I am not sure May will get the blame - perhaps she is teflon after all.

    Cant wait for the Peterborough byelection (if it happens) as I think a real dog fight will be on the cards

    I should think labour will win as despite the leavery area and new Tory candidate I think it's a hard pitch to locals when they will be pressed on support for no deal etc which splits the party, but certainly a rare, interesting by election. We remember the exciting ones, the close and the big swings, but most are dull, safe seats these days.
    I'd think the Tories are well placed in Peterborough. Voters for a party get pissed off having to go out to vote again when it is down to the stupidity or criminal action of their previous incumbent.

    Exhibit A: One of the biggest recent Tory -> LibDem swings in Devon was when the former Tory councillor was jailed for hitting his wife with a hammer.
    I could see that ordinarily, and it is very marginal and given the leave vote somewhat surprising it was lost in the first place. But given the timing surely there is a high chance some Tories do not turn out, depending on what the candidate wants to do re Brexit or in reaction to whatever happens with Brexit in Westminster?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 7,195
    Good morning!

    I see 2/3 of Britons prefer Remain to May's Deal, including some No Deal Brexiteers.



    Time for a #Peoplesvote :)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 10,621
    Foxy said:

    Good morning!

    I see 2/3 of Britons prefer Remain to May's Deal, including some No Deal Brexiteers.



    Time for a #Peoplesvote :)

    But we have to respect our previous decision to shoot ourselves in the foot.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 48,075
    Mr. kle4, ha. When I greet everyone as fellow Myrmidons, you don't hear the Corinthians bitching :p
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 10,451
    edited January 6

    Is there an election in the offing?

    Universal Credit roll-out postponed:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46772901

    NHS 10-year plan to be unveiled tomorrow:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-46771200

    What does the scheduling look like? Say she loses the Meaningful Vote next week, Corbyn says, "You're rubbish, call an election", TMay says, "You want an election, bring it on". The earliest you could have the election would be what, late February? So them TMay wins a majority just big enough to pass her deal without the no-dealers, ie about 150, and passes the rest of the legislation they need in March, and they all live happily ever after. Does that work?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 7,195
    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    Good morning!

    I see 2/3 of Britons prefer Remain to May's Deal, including some No Deal Brexiteers.



    Time for a #Peoplesvote :)

    But we have to respect our previous decision to shoot ourselves in the foot.

    Oh, no we dont!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 7,195

    Is there an election in the offing?

    Universal Credit roll-out postponed:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46772901

    NHS 10-year plan to be unveiled tomorrow:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-46771200

    What does the scheduling look like? Say she loses the Meaningful Vote next week, Corbyn says, "You're rubbish, call an election", TMay says, "You want an election, bring it on". The earliest you could have the election would be what, late February? So them TMay wins a majority just big enough to pass her deal without the no-dealers, ie about 150, and passes the rest of the legislation they need in March, and they all live happily ever after. Does that work?
    Either that or May is out of power and the poisoned chalice is passed to the next PM.

    To May, it may well work as "Double or Quits", though those ERG types may not like running on a Deal referendum.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 32,813
    corporeal said:

    As a side note if you go to my twitter page I'm dumping a few extra charts over there that I didn't like enough to put in the article.

    Thank you - I'm probably being dim, but what's your Twitter account?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 14,130
    In other news the Guardian reports that 'A veteran American cyclist has accepted a public warning issued by the US Anti-Doping Agency after being stripped of a world record he set earlier this year for failing a drugs test.

    Carl Grove set a new record when winning the 90-94 age group sprint title at the US Masters Track National Championships in July, only to test positive for epitrenbolone, a metabolite of trenbolon, which is a substance prohibited by Usada.

    The anti-doping rule violation was “more likely than not” to have been caused by the consumption of a contaminated piece of meat the night before the race, according to Usada. A test undertaken the day before had returned a negative result.'

    Couple of thoughts. Are such 'contaminants' likely to be used in meat imported to UK under a post EU trade deal with the US? Trenbolon is apparently used by beef farmers to put muscle on in cattle.
    Secondly. Is the guy the oldest person to be disqualified for drugs. Is this ip there with 'die at 95, shot by a jealous husband'?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 23,834
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Why even ask that question? Backing the deal is never going to happen. Being seen to 'enable' Brexit might but not in that way so the finding is pointless.

    It goes to show that the Tory brand has a resilience that companies would sell their grannies for. As a lot of the discussions on PB have shown Labour have not made any progress since 2017 (which is starting to seem a while ago) and despite May being sniped at constantly the old warhorse is still there and polling respectably......

    Lab/Lib Dems and the Nats dont seem able to dent them. Even a disorderly BREXIT is startign to appear a real possibility and I am not sure May will get the blame - perhaps she is teflon after all.

    Cant wait for the Peterborough byelection (if it happens) as I think a real dog fight will be on the cards

    I should think labour will win as despite the leavery area and new Tory candidate I think it's a hard pitch to locals when they will be pressed on support for no deal etc which splits the party, but certainly a rare, interesting by election. We remember the exciting ones, the close and the big swings, but most are dull, safe seats these days.
    I'd think the Tories are well placed in Peterborough. Voters for a party get pissed off having to go out to vote again when it is down to the stupidity or criminal action of their previous incumbent.

    Exhibit A: One of the biggest recent Tory -> LibDem swings in Devon was when the former Tory councillor was jailed for hitting his wife with a hammer.
    I could see that ordinarily, and it is very marginal and given the leave vote somewhat surprising it was lost in the first place. But given the timing surely there is a high chance some Tories do not turn out, depending on what the candidate wants to do re Brexit or in reaction to whatever happens with Brexit in Westminster?
    Against that, the Tories last time might have had a, er, rather unloveable MP with an anti-incumbency bonus? Wich might explain the "surprise".....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 23,834
    Foxy said:

    Is there an election in the offing?

    Universal Credit roll-out postponed:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46772901

    NHS 10-year plan to be unveiled tomorrow:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-46771200

    What does the scheduling look like? Say she loses the Meaningful Vote next week, Corbyn says, "You're rubbish, call an election", TMay says, "You want an election, bring it on". The earliest you could have the election would be what, late February? So them TMay wins a majority just big enough to pass her deal without the no-dealers, ie about 150, and passes the rest of the legislation they need in March, and they all live happily ever after. Does that work?
    Either that or May is out of power and the poisoned chalice is passed to the next PM.

    To May, it may well work as "Double or Quits", though those ERG types may not like running on a Deal referendum.
    More than just the ERG have a problem with running on a PM May election....
  • Replying to yesterdays comments on China displacing the USA. Well don't count your chickens on that. Bad things are brewing in China. Xi Jinping China is beactracking on China's opening to the World. People may have heard about the ratcheting up of Antin foreigner rhetoric in China but you need to read about in detail to feel it. I was watching a You tube blog the other day about why foreigners are fleeing China and it is sobering. People who've lived there for over 10 years, married, bought homes etc, are finding the new visa process much tougher. Local governments have suddenly turned hostile to foreign businesses. There were loads of examples given and just google search Why I Left China.

    There has been a big crackdown on Churches. Boards proclaiming socialism have been springing up, also lots of quotations and pictures of the leader. Anti Foreigner rhetoric has increased, local authorities have tried to stamp out shops celebrating Christmas. The clamp down on non Chinese foreign morals has increased. Their has been a big clampdown on Gay representation in the media and when China has not been as uptight as some other Asian countries.

    You can read plenty of worried comments about not sticking out and about you should stay safe and get your money out and move your family. Even some talk of Boxer rebellion 2.0.

    Basically China opened to the World to get developed but only wanted the wealth not the pluralism that comes with it. It's now trying to close the door again. I don't think it will work, if they want to stay rich that is.

    Of course it's not just Foreigners feeling the pressure, there is a reason for millions of Overseas Chinese around the Pacific Rim and anyone without secure connections desperating trying to get money abroad and visa's. There is no protection in China, your fortunes can change on a whim,
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,536

    corporeal said:

    As a side note if you go to my twitter page I'm dumping a few extra charts over there that I didn't like enough to put in the article.

    Thank you - I'm probably being dim, but what's your Twitter account?
    @PBcorporeal
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,536

    Mr. kle4, ha. When I greet everyone as fellow Myrmidons, you don't hear the Corinthians bitching :p

    Thracians, Thespians, Lesbians?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 50,970
    Indeed and the fact the Tories are still on 40% with YouGov today with a 6% lead over Labour shows they are still far from the unpopularity levels of the Brown Government of 2007-2010 or the Major Government of 1992-1997 which were the last times Governments lost power in the last 25 years
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 10,942
    The barnacles are being removed from the boat today.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 474

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Why even ask that question? Backing the deal is never going to happen. Being seen to 'enable' Brexit might but not in that way so the finding is pointless.

    It goes to show that the Tory brand has a resilience that companies would sell their grannies for. As a lot of the discussions on PB have shown Labour have not made any progress since 2017 (which is starting to seem a while ago) and despite May being sniped at constantly the old warhorse is still there and polling respectably......

    Lab/Lib Dems and the Nats dont seem able to dent them. Even a disorderly BREXIT is startign to appear a real possibility and I am not sure May will get the blame - perhaps she is teflon after all.

    Cant wait for the Peterborough byelection (if it happens) as I think a real dog fight will be on the cards

    I should think labour will win as despite the leavery area and new Tory candidate I think it's a hard pitch to locals when they will be pressed on support for no deal etc which splits the party, but certainly a rare, interesting by election. We remember the exciting ones, the close and the big swings, but most are dull, safe seats these days.
    I'd think the Tories are well placed in Peterborough. Voters for a party get pissed off having to go out to vote again when it is down to the stupidity or criminal action of their previous incumbent.

    Exhibit A: One of the biggest recent Tory -> LibDem swings in Devon was when the former Tory councillor was jailed for hitting his wife with a hammer.
    I could see that ordinarily, and it is very marginal and given the leave vote somewhat surprising it was lost in the first place. But given the timing surely there is a high chance some Tories do not turn out, depending on what the candidate wants to do re Brexit or in reaction to whatever happens with Brexit in Westminster?
    Against that, the Tories last time might have had a, er, rather unloveable MP with an anti-incumbency bonus? Wich might explain the "surprise".....
    Bring on the Peterborough byelection......could be Corbyn's defining moment he's not had a good record on these.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 50,970

    Replying to yesterdays comments on China displacing the USA. Well don't count your chickens on that. Bad things are brewing in China. Xi Jinping China is beactracking on China's opening to the World. People may have heard about the ratcheting up of Antin foreigner rhetoric in China but you need to read about in detail to feel it. I was watching a You tube blog the other day about why foreigners are fleeing China and it is sobering. People who've lived there for over 10 years, married, bought homes etc, are finding the new visa process much tougher. Local governments have suddenly turned hostile to foreign businesses. There were loads of examples given and just google search Why I Left China.

    There has been a big crackdown on Churches. Boards proclaiming socialism have been springing up, also lots of quotations and pictures of the leader. Anti Foreigner rhetoric has increased, local authorities have tried to stamp out shops celebrating Christmas. The clamp down on non Chinese foreign morals has increased. Their has been a big clampdown on Gay representation in the media and when China has not been as uptight as some other Asian countries.

    You can read plenty of worried comments about not sticking out and about you should stay safe and get your money out and move your family. Even some talk of Boxer rebellion 2.0.

    Basically China opened to the World to get developed but only wanted the wealth not the pluralism that comes with it. It's now trying to close the door again. I don't think it will work, if they want to stay rich that is.

    Of course it's not just Foreigners feeling the pressure, there is a reason for millions of Overseas Chinese around the Pacific Rim and anyone without secure connections desperating trying to get money abroad and visa's. There is no protection in China, your fortunes can change on a whim,

    Indeed, longer term India may be a better prospect than China to become the largest global economy, being both democratic and with a faster growing population than China
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 8,229
    Foxy said:

    Good morning!

    I see 2/3 of Britons prefer Remain to May's Deal, including some No Deal Brexiteers.



    Time for a #Peoplesvote :)

    Significantly these figures suggest the ten percentage point Remain advantage would increase rather than decrease as the specific Leave alternative is spelt out.

    My view on a second referendum is that's it's not a good idea unless Remain are highly probable to win. I would be happy to go ahead on these figures.

    Peter Kellner's analysis here: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/05/brexit-corbyn-electoral-catastrophe-yougov-poll
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 48,075
    Mr. Plan, welcome to PB. That's a very interesting post. I remember reading some years ago that the Chinese state quite liked Protestantism because of the work ethic.

    Xi ending the unofficial truce over corruption and internal party infighting was seen to have put him in a very strong position. What's your view?

    Mr. Corporeal, Thracians? Bloody barbarians.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 50,970
    edited January 6
    Foxy said:

    Good morning!

    I see 2/3 of Britons prefer Remain to May's Deal, including some No Deal Brexiteers.



    Time for a #Peoplesvote :)

    A rather absurd YouGov poll commissioned by anti Brexit People's Vote.


    Last month a YouGov poll not commissioned by People's Vote had it Remain 50% Deal 50% and Remain 52% No Deal 48%, Deal 65% No Deal 35%.
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2018/12/06/mays-brexit-deal-leads-just-two-constituencies-it-

    Of course there will never be a Remain v Deal referendum anyway while we have a Tory government, at most it would be Remain v Leave (which even this poll has closer at 54% to 46%) then if Leave wins Leave with Deal or Leave with No Deal. In fact the only EU referendum really plausible while May is PM is Leave with the Deal v Leave with No Deal and no Remain option at all but even that would only be as a last resort, Leave having already beaten Remain in the 2016 EU referendum.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 3,948

    Replying to yesterdays comments on China displacing the USA. Well don't count your chickens on that. Bad things are brewing in China. Xi Jinping China is beactracking on China's opening to the World. People may have heard about the ratcheting up of Antin foreigner rhetoric in China but you need to read about in detail to feel it. I was watching a You tube blog the other day about why foreigners are fleeing China and it is sobering. People who've lived there for over 10 years, married, bought homes etc, are finding the new visa process much tougher. Local governments have suddenly turned hostile to foreign businesses. There were loads of examples given and just google search Why I Left China.

    There has been a big crackdown on Churches. Boards proclaiming socialism have been springing up, also lots of quotations and pictures of the leader. Anti Foreigner rhetoric has increased, local authorities have tried to stamp out shops celebrating Christmas. The clamp down on non Chinese foreign morals has increased. Their has been a big clampdown on Gay representation in the media and when China has not been as uptight as some other Asian countries.

    You can read plenty of worried comments about not sticking out and about you should stay safe and get your money out and move your family. Even some talk of Boxer rebellion 2.0.

    Basically China opened to the World to get developed but only wanted the wealth not the pluralism that comes with it. It's now trying to close the door again. I don't think it will work, if they want to stay rich that is.

    Of course it's not just Foreigners feeling the pressure, there is a reason for millions of Overseas Chinese around the Pacific Rim and anyone without secure connections desperating trying to get money abroad and visa's. There is no protection in China, your fortunes can change on a whim,

    Really interesting first post. Welcome to PB.

    Can I ask whether you have any connection with China or are your sources on-line blogs etc?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 32,813
    corporeal said:

    corporeal said:

    As a side note if you go to my twitter page I'm dumping a few extra charts over there that I didn't like enough to put in the article.

    Thank you - I'm probably being dim, but what's your Twitter account?
    @PBcorporeal
    Thank you - and great charts!
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 10,942
    Better to have an election before the shit hits the fan than before. The economy is keeping May’s reputation afloat. A downturn will cause problems. A Brexit downturn doubly so.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 3,701
    FF43 said:

    Foxy said:

    Good morning!

    I see 2/3 of Britons prefer Remain to May's Deal, including some No Deal Brexiteers.



    Time for a #Peoplesvote :)

    Significantly these figures suggest the ten percentage point Remain advantage would increase rather than decrease as the specific Leave alternative is spelt out.

    My view on a second referendum is that's it's not a good idea unless Remain are highly probable to win. I would be happy to go ahead on these figures.

    Peter Kellner's analysis here: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/05/brexit-corbyn-electoral-catastrophe-yougov-poll
    An amazing poll.

    Only 22% of voters support May’s Deal, and *only 28% of Leavers*.

    It’s over.

    https://g.co/kgs/fJYQkD
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 3,948
    edited January 6
    Theresa May on the Marr show at 10:00am. I wonder if she'll have anything new to say.

    I suspect she'll say that her critics, - both Remainers and Brexiteers - risk damaging democracy if they oppose her plan. What a hypocrite, given what she's up to in parliament!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 50,970
    edited January 6
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    notme2 said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 40% (-1)
    LAB: 34% (-5)
    LDEM: 10% (+3)
    GRN: 4% (-)
    UKIP: 4% (+1)

    via @YouGov, 21 Dec - 04 Jan
    Chgs. w/ 17 Dec

    Labour plunges to just 34% ie Kinnock 1992 levels while the LDs jump to 10% and double figures, Tories largely unchanged on 40%.

    First signs of Remainers moving from Labour to the LDs as Corbyn still refuses to commit to back EUref2?
    No. The Tories have had inexplicably big leads with YouGov before. Likely it will return to smaller leads with them, parity or small lab leads with others.

    It has to change at some point. Has to. But not yet.
    The big shift from YouGov is not relating to the Tories, they are in fact down by 1% on this poll if still on 40%.

    The big shift is all Remainers moving from Labour to LD with Labour down 5% and the LDs up 3% as Corbyn continues to rule out EUref2, if that is reflected by other polls we would be heading for a clear Tory majority in any election in the foreseeable future
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 3,055



    The anti-doping rule violation was “more likely than not” to have been caused by the consumption of a contaminated piece of meat the night before the race, according to Usada. A test undertaken the day before had returned a negative result.'

    This the "Contador Gambit" and is a well trodden route to denying doping. The whole of competitive cycling is loaded with PEDs from top to bottom - it's just part of the sport's culture. I know somebody who did a blood bag before a charity sponsored family ride day! Massive doses of painkillers and caffeine are absolutely the norm on my regular club ride. Even at the lowest level of amateur competition you see testosterone and steroids. And the pros are orders of magnitude beyond even that.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 3,948
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    notme2 said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 40% (-1)
    LAB: 34% (-5)
    LDEM: 10% (+3)
    GRN: 4% (-)
    UKIP: 4% (+1)

    via @YouGov, 21 Dec - 04 Jan
    Chgs. w/ 17 Dec

    Labour plunges to just 34% ie Kinnock 1992 levels while the LDs jump to 10% and double figures, Tories largely unchanged on 40%.

    First signs of Remainers moving from Labour to the LDs as Corbyn still refuses to commit to back EUref2?
    No. The Tories have had inexplicably big leads with YouGov before. Likely it will return to smaller leads with them, parity or small lab leads with others.

    It has to change at some point. Has to. But not yet.
    The big shift from YouGov is not relating to the Tories, they are in fact down by 1% on this poll if still on 40%.

    The big shift is all Remainers moving from Labour to LD with Labour down 5% and the LDs up 3% as Corbyn continues to rule out EUref2, if that is reflected by other polls we would be heading for a clear Tory majority in any election in the foreseeable future
    That's right. The shift to the LDs is bad news and it's Corbyn's fault.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 50,970

    FF43 said:

    Foxy said:

    Good morning!

    I see 2/3 of Britons prefer Remain to May's Deal, including some No Deal Brexiteers.



    Time for a #Peoplesvote :)

    Significantly these figures suggest the ten percentage point Remain advantage would increase rather than decrease as the specific Leave alternative is spelt out.

    My view on a second referendum is that's it's not a good idea unless Remain are highly probable to win. I would be happy to go ahead on these figures.

    Peter Kellner's analysis here: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/05/brexit-corbyn-electoral-catastrophe-yougov-poll
    An amazing poll.

    Only 22% of voters support May’s Deal, and *only 28% of Leavers*.

    It’s over.

    https://g.co/kgs/fJYQkD
    No it is not over at all, as the non anti Brexit People's Vote poll showed the Deal comfortably beats No Deal head to head and ties Remain after preferences.

    Plus as long as we have a Tory Government the only likely EU referendum question would be to leave with the Deal or with No Deal, Remain would not even be an option
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 10,451
    edited January 6
    HYUFD said:


    A rather absurd YouGov poll commissioned by anti Brexit People's Vote.


    Last month a YouGov poll not commissioned by People's Vote had it Remain 50% Deal 50% and Remain 52% No Deal 48%, Deal 65% No Deal 35%.
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2018/12/06/mays-brexit-deal-leads-just-two-constituencies-it-

    The previous one you mention is a funky ranking thing. You can't directly compare that to a straight forced choice.

    However, what I suspect is happening (apart from opinion shifting away from the deal) is that in the forced choice, people who don't have their first choice as an option are dropping into "don't know / won't say" rather than picking their second preference.

    I think given an actual binary forced-choice referendum people would suck it up and vote for their second choice, since the argument they'd be hearing would pit their tribe against the enemy tribe. But it's really hard to say how turnout would go.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 50,970
    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    notme2 said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 40% (-1)
    LAB: 34% (-5)
    LDEM: 10% (+3)
    GRN: 4% (-)
    UKIP: 4% (+1)

    via @YouGov, 21 Dec - 04 Jan
    Chgs. w/ 17 Dec

    Labour plunges to just 34% ie Kinnock 1992 levels while the LDs jump to 10% and double figures, Tories largely unchanged on 40%.

    First signs of Remainers moving from Labour to the LDs as Corbyn still refuses to commit to back EUref2?
    No. The Tories have had inexplicably big leads with YouGov before. Likely it will return to smaller leads with them, parity or small lab leads with others.

    It has to change at some point. Has to. But not yet.
    The big shift from YouGov is not relating to the Tories, they are in fact down by 1% on this poll if still on 40%.

    The big shift is all Remainers moving from Labour to LD with Labour down 5% and the LDs up 3% as Corbyn continues to rule out EUref2, if that is reflected by other polls we would be heading for a clear Tory majority in any election in the foreseeable future
    That's right. The shift to the LDs is bad news and it's Corbyn's fault.
    Indeed, the higher the LDs get the better for the Tories under FPTP and the longer Corbyn backs Brexit and opposes EUref2 the better for the Tories
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 3,055
    Barnesian said:

    Theresa May on the Marr show at 10:00am. I wonder if she'll have anything new to say.

    I suspect she'll say that her critics, - both Remainers and Brexiteers - risk damaging democracy if they oppose her plan. What a hypocrite, given what she's up to in parliament!

    nOtHiNg HaS cHaNgEd
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 48,075
    Mr. HYUFD, India's got bloody horrendous bureaucracy, though.

    Leaving aside the atrocious circuit, one of the reasons F1 was keen to stop going there was because the Indian government wanted to tax (at 1/20 the rate because it was one race from 20) the teams for racing there. Getting last minute parts in was trickier too due to all the red tape.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 50,970
    edited January 6

    HYUFD said:


    A rather absurd YouGov poll commissioned by anti Brexit People's Vote.


    Last month a YouGov poll not commissioned by People's Vote had it Remain 50% Deal 50% and Remain 52% No Deal 48%, Deal 65% No Deal 35%.
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2018/12/06/mays-brexit-deal-leads-just-two-constituencies-it-

    The previous one you mention is a funky ranking thing. You can't directly compare that to a straight forced choice.

    However, what I suspect is happening (apart from opinion shifting away from the deal) is that in the forced choice, people who don't have their first choice as an option are dropping into "don't know / won't say" rather than picking their second preference.

    I think given an actual binary forced-choice referendum people would suck it up and vote for their second choice, since the argument they'd be hearing would pit their tribe against the enemy tribe. But it's really hard to say how turnout would go.
    Provided all options were on the table ie Leave v Remain then if Remain wins Leave with Deal or No Deal turnout would still be very high.

    If Remain v Deal only though, turnout would be lower as fewer No Dealers would turn out or if Leave with Deal v No Deal turnout would also be lower as fewer Remainers would turn out.

    The first question may be the fairest as it covers all options but the last question is most likely as long as the Tories remain in power
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 2,287
    Dura_Ace said:

    Barnesian said:

    Theresa May on the Marr show at 10:00am. I wonder if she'll have anything new to say.

    I suspect she'll say that her critics, - both Remainers and Brexiteers - risk damaging democracy if they oppose her plan. What a hypocrite, given what she's up to in parliament!

    nOtHiNg HaS cHaNgEd
    Indeed - we are heading for a Tory hard Brexit. The idiots who voted Leave will have plenty of time to reflect on their foolishness...
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 10,451
    edited January 6
    FF43 said:


    My view on a second referendum is that's it's not a good idea unless Remain are highly probable to win. I would be happy to go ahead on these figures.

    At the risk of starting something we've already done to death, one thing I wonder about the people who think a second referendum is undemocratic: Is there any level of public opinion where it would be OK to let the voters vote again? For the sake of argument, say it turned out that literally nobody in the entire UK wanted to Brexit any more, would the will of the people require ignoring the will of all the people?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 22,512
    Chuka Umunna admits on Sophy Ridge the 'peoples vote' do not have the numbers in the HOC
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 50,970

    Mr. HYUFD, India's got bloody horrendous bureaucracy, though.

    Leaving aside the atrocious circuit, one of the reasons F1 was keen to stop going there was because the Indian government wanted to tax (at 1/20 the rate because it was one race from 20) the teams for racing there. Getting last minute parts in was trickier too due to all the red tape.

    So does China and at the end of the day India will soon overtake China as the world's largest population and as its economy continues to grow that will ultimately be reflected in becoming the world's largest economy (even if it still lags the West and China on gdp per capita)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 48,075
    Mr. NorthWales, I wonder how much that depends on order of voting.

    If May's deal gets roundly rejected and then there's a vote on another referendum, that would surely increase the likelihood of said vote passing.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 22,512
    murali_s said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Barnesian said:

    Theresa May on the Marr show at 10:00am. I wonder if she'll have anything new to say.

    I suspect she'll say that her critics, - both Remainers and Brexiteers - risk damaging democracy if they oppose her plan. What a hypocrite, given what she's up to in parliament!

    nOtHiNg HaS cHaNgEd
    Indeed - we are heading for a Tory hard Brexit. The idiots who voted Leave will have plenty of time to reflect on their foolishness...
    498 mps voted for A50 thereby putting the Country on course for no deal. All 498 are responsible
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 10,719

    Worth remembering that these days there is no single functioning entity called the Conservative party. That’s how bad Corbyn Labour is.

    And vice versa. I am coming round to the view that Corbyn might be a strategic genius, or at least that he has lucked into a strong position vis-a-vis Brexit. Ignore the froth and the polls, it is hard to see how May's deal can be passed without throwing Corbyn a bone, and if not, then Labour's near-permanent CU/SM neatly sidesteps the DUP's red lines.
    It doesn't quite so neatly side-step what the people voted for in 2016 and 2017.....
    People prefer unrestricted free trade with the EU over controlling immigration.

    If you are happy to ramp the headline voting intention from that last YouGov anyway.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 50,970

    Mr. NorthWales, I wonder how much that depends on order of voting.

    If May's deal gets roundly rejected and then there's a vote on another referendum, that would surely increase the likelihood of said vote passing.

    However most Tories would still vote against it as would the DUP and Labour Leavers and many Labour MPs in Leave seats therefore it is still unlikely to get a majority and would not become law without government support anyway
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 8,229

    HYUFD said:


    A rather absurd YouGov poll commissioned by anti Brexit People's Vote.


    Last month a YouGov poll not commissioned by People's Vote had it Remain 50% Deal 50% and Remain 52% No Deal 48%, Deal 65% No Deal 35%.
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2018/12/06/mays-brexit-deal-leads-just-two-constituencies-it-

    The previous one you mention is a funky ranking thing. You can't directly compare that to a straight forced choice.

    However, what I suspect is happening (apart from opinion shifting away from the deal) is that in the forced choice, people who don't have their first choice as an option are dropping into "don't know / won't say" rather than picking their second preference.

    I think given an actual binary forced-choice referendum people would suck it up and vote for their second choice, since the argument they'd be hearing would pit their tribe against the enemy tribe. But it's really hard to say how turnout would go.
    I agree with you that don't knows will tend to revert to their previous position over the campaign. But not all of them and there is also the option of not voting. I can't be sure without seeing the figures, but I don't think this effect is enough to overturn the Remain advantage identified by this poll.

    The poll's potentially bad news for Remain is if the government calls an early election and Remain voters desert Labour, the government would then have a big enough majority to push through the Deal in parliament.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 3,948

    Mr. HYUFD, India's got bloody horrendous bureaucracy, though.

    Leaving aside the atrocious circuit, one of the reasons F1 was keen to stop going there was because the Indian government wanted to tax (at 1/20 the rate because it was one race from 20) the teams for racing there. Getting last minute parts in was trickier too due to all the red tape.

    Improving India's creaking infrastructure is tortuous and slow and a real constraint on its economic performance. That's a problem with democracy.

    China's Napoleonic approach to infrastructure, unconstrained by democracy, puts it streets ahead of India on the supply side.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 50,970

    Chuka Umunna admits on Sophy Ridge the 'peoples vote' do not have the numbers in the HOC

    I think it has more votes now than Norway Plus though and No Deal (even if the latter is the default).

    At the end of the day EUref2 needs to be put to the Commons using the Grieve amendment and then get more Commons votes than the Deal to have a chance of even being considered by the Government
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 22,512

    Mr. NorthWales, I wonder how much that depends on order of voting.

    If May's deal gets roundly rejected and then there's a vote on another referendum, that would surely increase the likelihood of said vote passing.

    Not sure but as far as I am aware the amendments come before the meaningful vote and if agreed become part of the meaningful vote. Therefore the referendum vote will come before the deal vote

    However, I stand to be corrrected if I have read it incorrectly
  • ChrisChris Posts: 2,189
    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Foxy said:

    Good morning!

    I see 2/3 of Britons prefer Remain to May's Deal, including some No Deal Brexiteers.



    Time for a #Peoplesvote :)

    Significantly these figures suggest the ten percentage point Remain advantage would increase rather than decrease as the specific Leave alternative is spelt out.

    My view on a second referendum is that's it's not a good idea unless Remain are highly probable to win. I would be happy to go ahead on these figures.

    Peter Kellner's analysis here: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/05/brexit-corbyn-electoral-catastrophe-yougov-poll
    An amazing poll.

    Only 22% of voters support May’s Deal, and *only 28% of Leavers*.

    It’s over.

    https://g.co/kgs/fJYQkD
    No it is not over at all, as the non anti Brexit People's Vote poll showed the Deal comfortably beats No Deal head to head and ties Remain after preferences.

    Plus as long as we have a Tory Government the only likely EU referendum question would be to leave with the Deal or with No Deal, Remain would not even be an option
    Personally I think it's very unlikely the European Council would unanimously approve an extension for a referendum that included "No Deal" as an option. At least one of the other countries would surely calculate there was more risk of the electorate choosing "No Deal" than of the House of Commons doing so left to itself.

    Clearly the only course is to hold a referendum with two options:
    "Do you support the negotiated Withdrawal Agreement:
    Yes
    or
    Don't Know."
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,536

    corporeal said:

    corporeal said:

    As a side note if you go to my twitter page I'm dumping a few extra charts over there that I didn't like enough to put in the article.

    Thank you - I'm probably being dim, but what's your Twitter account?
    @PBcorporeal
    Thank you - and great charts!
    Thank you. There's at least two more articles coming very soon, and probably more in the near future. Trying to wring as many articles as I can out of all this spreadsheeting.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 3,948

    Mr. NorthWales, I wonder how much that depends on order of voting.

    If May's deal gets roundly rejected and then there's a vote on another referendum, that would surely increase the likelihood of said vote passing.

    Particularly if it is backed by May as the only way to get her deal passed.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 50,970
    edited January 6
    Labour Party chairman and Labour MP for Wansbeck Ian Lavery says People's Vote campaigners calling for a second EU referendum are 'disrespectful' as voters already voted to Leave the EU and simply want the process to take place


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/05/ian-lavery-accuses-peoples-vote-supporters-disrespectful-brexit/
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 22,512
    Barnesian said:

    Mr. NorthWales, I wonder how much that depends on order of voting.

    If May's deal gets roundly rejected and then there's a vote on another referendum, that would surely increase the likelihood of said vote passing.

    Particularly if it is backed by May as the only way to get her deal passed.
    TM is implacably opposed to a second referendum and she is more likely to head to no deal than put forward the legislation for a second referendum
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 3,948
    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:


    A rather absurd YouGov poll commissioned by anti Brexit People's Vote.


    Last month a YouGov poll not commissioned by People's Vote had it Remain 50% Deal 50% and Remain 52% No Deal 48%, Deal 65% No Deal 35%.
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2018/12/06/mays-brexit-deal-leads-just-two-constituencies-it-

    The previous one you mention is a funky ranking thing. You can't directly compare that to a straight forced choice.

    However, what I suspect is happening (apart from opinion shifting away from the deal) is that in the forced choice, people who don't have their first choice as an option are dropping into "don't know / won't say" rather than picking their second preference.

    I think given an actual binary forced-choice referendum people would suck it up and vote for their second choice, since the argument they'd be hearing would pit their tribe against the enemy tribe. But it's really hard to say how turnout would go.
    I agree with you that don't knows will tend to revert to their previous position over the campaign. But not all of them and there is also the option of not voting. I can't be sure without seeing the figures, but I don't think this effect is enough to overturn the Remain advantage identified by this poll.

    The poll's potentially bad news for Remain is if the government calls an early election and Remain voters desert Labour, the government would then have a big enough majority to push through the Deal in parliament.
    I agree. It shows just how undemocratic our FPTP "democracy" is!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 10,621
    Barnesian said:

    Replying to yesterdays comments on China displacing the USA. Well don't count your chickens on that. Bad things are brewing in China. Xi Jinping China is beactracking on China's opening to the World. People may have heard about the ratcheting up of Antin foreigner rhetoric in China but you need to read about in detail to feel it. I was watching a You tube blog the other day about why foreigners are fleeing China and it is sobering. People who've lived there for over 10 years, married, bought homes etc, are finding the new visa process much tougher. Local governments have suddenly turned hostile to foreign businesses. There were loads of examples given and just google search Why I Left China.

    There has been a big crackdown on Churches. Boards proclaiming socialism have been springing up, also lots of quotations and pictures of the leader. Anti Foreigner rhetoric has increased, local authorities have tried to stamp out shops celebrating Christmas. The clamp down on non Chinese foreign morals has increased. Their has been a big clampdown on Gay representation in the media and when China has not been as uptight as some other Asian countries.

    You can read plenty of worried comments about not sticking out and about you should stay safe and get your money out and move your family. Even some talk of Boxer rebellion 2.0.

    Basically China opened to the World to get developed but only wanted the wealth not the pluralism that comes with it. It's now trying to close the door again. I don't think it will work, if they want to stay rich that is.

    Of course it's not just Foreigners feeling the pressure, there is a reason for millions of Overseas Chinese around the Pacific Rim and anyone without secure connections desperating trying to get money abroad and visa's. There is no protection in China, your fortunes can change on a whim,

    Really interesting first post. Welcome to PB.

    Can I ask whether you have any connection with China or are your sources on-line blogs etc?
    It is an interesting post.
    Things getting worse in China aren’t necessarily incompatible with their becoming a world power, though, however negative the effects are likely to be.

    Economivpcally, there is a big question as to what happens when the export growth which has driven their economy stalls, and I don’t think anyone really knows. A bit further out, there is the question of the demographic time bomb.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 40,860

    FF43 said:

    Foxy said:

    Good morning!

    I see 2/3 of Britons prefer Remain to May's Deal, including some No Deal Brexiteers.



    Time for a #Peoplesvote :)

    Significantly these figures suggest the ten percentage point Remain advantage would increase rather than decrease as the specific Leave alternative is spelt out.

    My view on a second referendum is that's it's not a good idea unless Remain are highly probable to win. I would be happy to go ahead on these figures.

    Peter Kellner's analysis here: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/05/brexit-corbyn-electoral-catastrophe-yougov-poll
    An amazing poll.

    Only 22% of voters support May’s Deal, and *only 28% of Leavers*.

    It’s over.

    https://g.co/kgs/fJYQkD
    You are quite wrong. It's not over for the deal, it never started.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 23,622
    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Foxy said:

    Good morning!

    I see 2/3 of Britons prefer Remain to May's Deal, including some No Deal Brexiteers.



    Time for a #Peoplesvote :)

    Significantly these figures suggest the ten percentage point Remain advantage would increase rather than decrease as the specific Leave alternative is spelt out.

    My view on a second referendum is that's it's not a good idea unless Remain are highly probable to win. I would be happy to go ahead on these figures.

    Peter Kellner's analysis here: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/05/brexit-corbyn-electoral-catastrophe-yougov-poll
    An amazing poll.

    Only 22% of voters support May’s Deal, and *only 28% of Leavers*.

    It’s over.

    https://g.co/kgs/fJYQkD
    No it is not over at all, as the non anti Brexit People's Vote poll showed the Deal comfortably beats No Deal head to head and ties Remain after preferences.

    Plus as long as we have a Tory Government the only likely EU referendum question would be to leave with the Deal or with No Deal, Remain would not even be an option
    Why are you impugning the integrity of YouGov?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 3,701

    Chuka Umunna admits on Sophy Ridge the 'peoples vote' do not have the numbers in the HOC

    Not news.
    People Vote only carries if May or Corbyn swings behind it.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 3,948
    edited January 6

    Barnesian said:

    Mr. NorthWales, I wonder how much that depends on order of voting.

    If May's deal gets roundly rejected and then there's a vote on another referendum, that would surely increase the likelihood of said vote passing.

    Particularly if it is backed by May as the only way to get her deal passed.
    TM is implacably opposed to a second referendum and she is more likely to head to no deal than put forward the legislation for a second referendum
    We don't know that. She was "implacably" opposed to a General Election in 2017. She is, at heart, a Remainer, and so is her husband.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 22,512
    Sophy Ridge accuses Barry Gardiner of chasing unicorns.

    No wonder labour are falling in the polls
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 40,860

    Chuka Umunna admits on Sophy Ridge the 'peoples vote' do not have the numbers in the HOC

    Well it's not as though he or that campaign ever cared about first up results anyway (indeed, it only cares about it when it thinks it will win), and now the gov's strategy is also to hold second votes (in the Commons), so not having the numbers to get a referendum, yet, is not really that big a problem. They'll get more support in frustration at lack of alternatives in the Commons like they have with people like me outside it, even though I think Umunna and most of that campaign are disingenuous at best.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 474

    murali_s said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Barnesian said:

    Theresa May on the Marr show at 10:00am. I wonder if she'll have anything new to say.

    I suspect she'll say that her critics, - both Remainers and Brexiteers - risk damaging democracy if they oppose her plan. What a hypocrite, given what she's up to in parliament!

    nOtHiNg HaS cHaNgEd
    Indeed - we are heading for a Tory hard Brexit. The idiots who voted Leave will have plenty of time to reflect on their foolishness...
    498 mps voted for A50 thereby putting the Country on course for no deal. All 498 are responsible
    Plus all the MPs who voted for the referendum, without really thinking through and considering their role in enacting the outcome of that vote.....they created the monster in the first place.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 40,860
    HYUFD said:

    Labour Party chairman and Labour MP for Wansbeck Ian Lavery says People's Vote campaigners calling for a second EU referendum are 'disrespectful' as voters already voted to Leave the EU and simply want the process to take place

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/05/ian-lavery-accuses-peoples-vote-supporters-disrespectful-brexit/

    Betrayal!!!

    Unfortunately for the country the less Labour go for a referendum/are unable to get a GE, the greater the already high probability of no deal since lack of support for another vote is not translating into support for any single actual leave option.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 24,627

    FF43 said:


    My view on a second referendum is that's it's not a good idea unless Remain are highly probable to win. I would be happy to go ahead on these figures.

    At the risk of starting something we've already done to death, one thing I wonder about the people who think a second referendum is undemocratic: Is there any level of public opinion where it would be OK to let the voters vote again? For the sake of argument, say it turned out that literally nobody in the entire UK wanted to Brexit any more, would the will of the people require ignoring the will of all the people?
    There will only be a referendum if the consequences of not having one are worse for the governing party.

    This means the Conservative Party would need to believe that not having one would be a serious electoral liability.

    Ultimately, the government chooses whether we have a referendum. If they see "mileage" in it, then democracy (or lack thereof) be damned, there will be a referendum.

    A referendum will happen if:

    Mrs May (and Mr Gove and sufficient other high up members of the government) fear the consequence of the default No Deal more than they fear the fury of their members and the ERG.

    or

    The polls have swung so violently that not having a referendum would be an immediate electoral liability.

    I don't think either are likely. More likely, by far, is that Mrs May manages to convince enough pro-EU Labourites that the Deal is better than No Deal for the country.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 3,948
    edited January 6
    Nigelb said:

    Barnesian said:

    Replying to yesterdays comments on China displacing the USA. Well don't count your chickens on that. Bad things are brewing in China. Xi Jinping China is beactracking on China's opening to the World. People may have heard about the ratcheting up of Antin foreigner rhetoric in China but you need to read about in detail to feel it. I was watching a You tube blog the other day about why foreigners are fleeing China and it is sobering. People who've lived there for over 10 years, married, bought homes etc, are finding the new visa process much tougher. Local governments have suddenly turned hostile to foreign businesses. There were loads of examples given and just google search Why I Left China.

    There has been a big crackdown on Churches. Boards proclaiming socialism have been springing up, also lots of quotations and pictures of the leader. Anti Foreigner rhetoric has increased, local authorities have tried to stamp out shops celebrating Christmas. The clamp down on non Chinese foreign morals has increased. Their has been a big clampdown on Gay representation in the media and when China has not been as uptight as some other Asian countries.

    You can read plenty of worried comments about not sticking out and about you should stay safe and get your money out and move your family. Even some talk of Boxer rebellion 2.0.

    Basically China opened to the World to get developed but only wanted the wealth not the pluralism that comes with it. It's now trying to close the door again. I don't think it will work, if they want to stay rich that is.

    Of course it's not just Foreigners feeling the pressure, there is a reason for millions of Overseas Chinese around the Pacific Rim and anyone without secure connections desperating trying to get money abroad and visa's. There is no protection in China, your fortunes can change on a whim,

    Really interesting first post. Welcome to PB.

    Can I ask whether you have any connection with China or are your sources on-line blogs etc?
    It is an interesting post.
    Things getting worse in China aren’t necessarily incompatible with their becoming a world power, though, however negative the effects are likely to be.

    Economivpcally, there is a big question as to what happens when the export growth which has driven their economy stalls, and I don’t think anyone really knows. A bit further out, there is the question of the demographic time bomb.

    Yes. China has sorted the supply side but has a long term problem with the demand side. For India it is the reverse.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 22,512

    Chuka Umunna admits on Sophy Ridge the 'peoples vote' do not have the numbers in the HOC

    Not news.
    People Vote only carries if May or Corbyn swings behind it.
    In reality if TM has a complete volte face - Corbyn is not in power and to get there he would need to win a GE and in that GE he would have to commit to a referendum or reject it
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 40,860

    Chuka Umunna admits on Sophy Ridge the 'peoples vote' do not have the numbers in the HOC

    Not news.
    People Vote only carries if May or Corbyn swings behind it.
    Yes, and while neither seems to be keen on it and it wouldlook very silly for them to switch (slightly less so for Corbyn as it is at least party policy to leave the options open even if people moan about him not already backing a second vote), at some point neither can keep up this game of pretending their preferred course can occur, and one or both might well swing behind it. The firmer the talk against it from them the sillier they'll look, but politician's u-turn, sometimes for the best even, and you do what you have to.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 10,621
    Dura_Ace said:



    The anti-doping rule violation was “more likely than not” to have been caused by the consumption of a contaminated piece of meat the night before the race, according to Usada. A test undertaken the day before had returned a negative result.'

    This the "Contador Gambit" and is a well trodden route to denying doping. The whole of competitive cycling is loaded with PEDs from top to bottom - it's just part of the sport's culture. I know somebody who did a blood bag before a charity sponsored family ride day! Massive doses of painkillers and caffeine are absolutely the norm on my regular club ride. Even at the lowest level of amateur competition you see testosterone and steroids. And the pros are orders of magnitude beyond even that.
    How many nonagenarians are in your regular club ride ?

  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 3,948

    Chuka Umunna admits on Sophy Ridge the 'peoples vote' do not have the numbers in the HOC

    Not news.
    People Vote only carries if May or Corbyn swings behind it.
    In reality if TM has a complete volte face - Corbyn is not in power and to get there he would need to win a GE and in that GE he would have to commit to a referendum or reject it
    I agree with you.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 22,512
    kle4 said:

    FF43 said:

    Foxy said:

    Good morning!

    I see 2/3 of Britons prefer Remain to May's Deal, including some No Deal Brexiteers.



    Time for a #Peoplesvote :)

    Significantly these figures suggest the ten percentage point Remain advantage would increase rather than decrease as the specific Leave alternative is spelt out.

    My view on a second referendum is that's it's not a good idea unless Remain are highly probable to win. I would be happy to go ahead on these figures.

    Peter Kellner's analysis here: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/05/brexit-corbyn-electoral-catastrophe-yougov-poll
    An amazing poll.

    Only 22% of voters support May’s Deal, and *only 28% of Leavers*.

    It’s over.

    https://g.co/kgs/fJYQkD
    You are quite wrong. It's not over for the deal, it never started.
    I am not convinced that the deal is over yet. There are far too many variables to rule anything out
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 3,948
    Right. I'm off to watch Mrs May on the Marr show, with a basin by my side. If she mentions "defending democracy" I'll puke.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 20,936
    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    notme2 said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 40% (-1)
    LAB: 34% (-5)
    LDEM: 10% (+3)
    GRN: 4% (-)
    UKIP: 4% (+1)

    via @YouGov, 21 Dec - 04 Jan
    Chgs. w/ 17 Dec

    Labour plunges to just 34% ie Kinnock 1992 levels while the LDs jump to 10% and double figures, Tories largely unchanged on 40%.

    First signs of Remainers moving from Labour to the LDs as Corbyn still refuses to commit to back EUref2?
    No. The Tories have had inexplicably big leads with YouGov before. Likely it will return to smaller leads with them, parity or small lab leads with others.

    It has to change at some point. Has to. But not yet.
    The big shift from YouGov is not relating to the Tories, they are in fact down by 1% on this poll if still on 40%.

    The big shift is all Remainers moving from Labour to LD with Labour down 5% and the LDs up 3% as Corbyn continues to rule out EUref2, if that is reflected by other polls we would be heading for a clear Tory majority in any election in the foreseeable future
    That's right. The shift to the LDs is bad news and it's Corbyn's fault.
    Indeed, the higher the LDs get the better for the Tories under FPTP and the longer Corbyn backs Brexit and opposes EUref2 the better for the Tories
    LD's will go nowhere, lying toerags led by a numpty, smoke and mirrors only because the other choices are so shit. People will be forced to hold their nose and vote either one of the two nasty evil lots when push comes to shove, luckily we have a real choice in Scotland. Unfortunately the numbers mean they ugly sisters can just ignore Scottish vote.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 22,512
    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Mr. NorthWales, I wonder how much that depends on order of voting.

    If May's deal gets roundly rejected and then there's a vote on another referendum, that would surely increase the likelihood of said vote passing.

    Particularly if it is backed by May as the only way to get her deal passed.
    TM is implacably opposed to a second referendum and she is more likely to head to no deal than put forward the legislation for a second referendum
    We don't know that. She was "implacably" opposed to a General Election in 2017. She is, at heart, a Remainer, and so is her husband.
    She has consistently opposed a referendum and I do not see the relevance about her husband
This discussion has been closed.