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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In Jan 2017 Trump had net positive approval ratings in 38 US s

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited January 8 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In Jan 2017 Trump had net positive approval ratings in 38 US states – that’s now down to 21

It is a sign of just how long PB has been around that next year’s White House Race will be the 5th that we’ve covered on the site since its foundation in March 2004. These are massive betting events something that is helped by the build-up of primaries towards the nominations of then of course the battle itself.

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Comments

  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,595
    Uno
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 18,631
    edited January 8
    Dos

    Have a good morning.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 1,509
    Trump is unpopular now but unlike the UK there is no leader of the opposition, no-one to compare him against. If the Dems pick the wrong candidate to oppose him in 2020 things could change rapidly. Trump doesn't have to be popular, he just has to be less unpopular than his opponent.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 15,007
    West Va. I can understand....coal and so on, but why is he retaining popularity so well in Wyoming?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,177

    West Va. I can understand....coal and so on, but why is he retaining popularity so well in Wyoming?

    There are only about 9 people in Wyoming. Maybe he sent them a Christmas card......
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 52,473

    West Va. I can understand....coal and so on, but why is he retaining popularity so well in Wyoming?

    Very red state
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445

    West Va. I can understand....coal and so on, but why is he retaining popularity so well in Wyoming?

    Resistance to gun control and support of NRA
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 12,183
    (FPT)

    Nigelb said:

    RobD said:

    Why should the EU even have an ambassador to the US, or any country for that matter?
    Why should the Holy See have an ambassador to the US?
    Because the Holy See has legal rights and duties analogous to states:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legal_status_of_the_Holy_See

    whereas these are still the subject of some dispute as far as the EU is concerned, whose "complex and unprecedented form of international institutional cooperation" allow room for scholars to argue the point. See:

    https://www.utwente.nl/en/bms/pa/research/wessel/wessel1.pdf
    Thanks for the latter link, but is's also rather dated.

    As for the Holy See, your link shows it has those rights not through the usual reasons, e.g. a population and territory (the See is not the Vatican), but mostly because it always has had those rights.

    IMV the Holy See is a religious entity and has no territory. It should not have ambassadors.

    It seems odd for someone to criticise the EU for having ambassadors, yet is happy for the Holy See to have them (BTW I am not saying you are doing this).
    The Vatican's soft power - of having a lot of self-identifying Catholics in the US? Versus lots of former-Europeans-but-now-self-identifying-as-Americans?
    I’m not sure you understand this whole diplomacy thing.
    No, just the politics of diplomacy thing.

    And for those who were doubting the UK still has soft power, you have ponder on who might have been holding the President's hand for this EU downgrade....
    Putin ?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 12,183
    A kinder, gentler politics...

    Trump supporter complains shutdown is 'not hurting the people he needs to be hurting'
    https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/424263-trump-supporter-complains-shutdown-is-not-hurting-the-people-he
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 22,042

    West Va. I can understand....coal and so on, but why is he retaining popularity so well in Wyoming?

    Guns
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 49,750
    Good morning, everyone.

    I think he'll face a bit of a struggle. But that also means the Democratic contest to be the nominee that faces Trump will be intense. A bigger field can throw up surprises (though it's worth noting there were a bare handful of contenders last time and Clinton still nearly lost to Sanders).
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    Florida, Michigan, Ohio and Pennslyvannia are swing states. They’ll be crucial in the next election. I can’t see states like Arizona and Georgia voting Democratic though. All Presidents must suffer big drops in popularity when the reality of being in office starts. Obama was hammered by the press in his first term.

    Be interesting to see comparable approval rating figures for other Presidents in their first term for comparison.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 18,172
    Ed Miliband is not supporting the deal because it “kicks the can down the road” and doesn’t address the customs union or an FTA.

    Either he is incredibly stupid or he thinks Labour Party supporters are incredibly stupid.
  • mattmatt Posts: 2,948
    TOPPING said:

    Ed Miliband is not supporting the deal because it “kicks the can down the road” and doesn’t address the customs union or an FTA.

    Either he is incredibly stupid or he thinks Labour Party supporters are incredibly stupid.

    He's an MP. Both?
  • I couldn't face the Brexit movie. As we've decades of psychoanalysing that Summer to come it didn't seem a priority. For me the biggest development since parliament went into recess on 20/12 is Gove's weekend intervention. His ( entirely accurate ) speech on what woukd happen to UK farming in the event of no deal coukd have been made by a Remain camoaigner in full project fear mode. So the game is up. We need the deal and the arguments won't be different in June 2020 when the extention option has to be agreed to continue vassalage to December 2022. If even Gove is saying we need the deal and will need the extention the game is up. May needs to find a majority from somewhere for a dreadful deal which far too many people with futures in politics are going to want be seen voting against. The price she's going to have to pay to get that majority is going to be very very high indeed.

    However what really interests me is I'm just not convinced the country is ready for the lack of closure. April '19 to June '20 is the battle over the extension. June '20 to December '22 is the battle over end state. The June '22 GE is a Brexit election. Vassalage will last nearly 4 years. It's become common place to describe this as the end game but Gove's intervention shows even uber leavers know that it's not.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 12,183
    It is unquestionably a Trump shutdown:
    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/01/how-shutdown-impacting-air-safety/579616/
    “I am proud to shut down the government for border security, Chuck … So I will take the mantle. I will be the one to shut it down. I’m not going to blame you for it … I will take the mantle of shutting down, and I’m going to shut it down for border security.”

    I am not seeing any clear route to re-election for the narcissistic compulsive liar.
    I think the odds probably better for his ending up in jail, post election.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 22,172
    kyf_100 said:

    Trump is unpopular now but unlike the UK there is no leader of the opposition, no-one to compare him against. If the Dems pick the wrong candidate to oppose him in 2020 things could change rapidly. Trump doesn't have to be popular, he just has to be less unpopular than his opponent.

    Yes, good point. I’m still not sure the Democrats understand why they lost to Trump two years ago, and they show every sign of choosing another costal liberal who thinks the most important issues facing America are transgender and vegan rights. If they can’t find a candidate with at least some appeal in the swing states that Trump took (some on very small margins), then they’ll lose to him again in 2020.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 12,183
    TOPPING said:

    Ed Miliband is not supporting the deal because it “kicks the can down the road” and doesn’t address the customs union or an FTA.

    Either he is incredibly stupid or he thinks Labour Party supporters are incredibly stupid.

    There hasn’t exactly been an excess of intelligence demonstrated by any of our politicians.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 12,183
    Sandpit said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Trump is unpopular now but unlike the UK there is no leader of the opposition, no-one to compare him against. If the Dems pick the wrong candidate to oppose him in 2020 things could change rapidly. Trump doesn't have to be popular, he just has to be less unpopular than his opponent.

    Yes, good point. I’m still not sure the Democrats understand why they lost to Trump two years ago, and they show every sign of choosing another costal liberal who thinks the most important issues facing America are transgender and vegan rights. If they can’t find a candidate with at least some appeal in the swing states that Trump took (some on very small margins), then they’ll lose to him again in 2020.
    We’ll see.
    It’s not my impression if the state of play.

    ‘Coastal liberal’ is a pretty tired Republican trope - and so broad in its application to be essentially meaningless. Could be applied to anyone from Biden to Sanders.
    Unless you’re suggesting they have to nominate a moderate Republican to win ?

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 29,195
    Sandpit said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Trump is unpopular now but unlike the UK there is no leader of the opposition, no-one to compare him against. If the Dems pick the wrong candidate to oppose him in 2020 things could change rapidly. Trump doesn't have to be popular, he just has to be less unpopular than his opponent.

    Yes, good point. I’m still not sure the Democrats understand why they lost to Trump two years ago, and they show every sign of choosing another costal liberal who thinks the most important issues facing America are transgender and vegan rights. If they can’t find a candidate with at least some appeal in the swing states that Trump took (some on very small margins), then they’ll lose to him again in 2020.
    They have learnt nothing, and forgotten nothing.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 29,195
    kyf_100 said:

    Trump is unpopular now but unlike the UK there is no leader of the opposition, no-one to compare him against. If the Dems pick the wrong candidate to oppose him in 2020 things could change rapidly. Trump doesn't have to be popular, he just has to be less unpopular than his opponent.

    Personally, I’m going to wait until I know who the Democrat candidate is before taking a view on who’s going to win. I know most of the value will be gone by then, but I think your premise is right and that choice will be critical.

    My assumption is that Trump will stand for reelection.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 18,172
    matt said:

    TOPPING said:

    Ed Miliband is not supporting the deal because it “kicks the can down the road” and doesn’t address the customs union or an FTA.

    Either he is incredibly stupid or he thinks Labour Party supporters are incredibly stupid.

    He's an MP. Both?
    Actually it is of course a clever move. Unarguably fake news but who is there to call him on it? But yes, both is most likely although it also shows a perhaps disappointing contempt for his Party’s supporters.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 10,911

    I couldn't face the Brexit movie. As we've decades of psychoanalysing that Summer to come it didn't seem a priority. For me the biggest development since parliament went into recess on 20/12 is Gove's weekend intervention. His ( entirely accurate ) speech on what woukd happen to UK farming in the event of no deal coukd have been made by a Remain camoaigner in full project fear mode. So the game is up. We need the deal and the arguments won't be different in June 2020 when the extention option has to be agreed to continue vassalage to December 2022. If even Gove is saying we need the deal and will need the extention the game is up. May needs to find a majority from somewhere for a dreadful deal which far too many people with futures in politics are going to want be seen voting against. The price she's going to have to pay to get that majority is going to be very very high indeed.

    However what really interests me is I'm just not convinced the country is ready for the lack of closure. April '19 to June '20 is the battle over the extension. June '20 to December '22 is the battle over end state. The June '22 GE is a Brexit election. Vassalage will last nearly 4 years. It's become common place to describe this as the end game but Gove's intervention shows even uber leavers know that it's not.

    BiB - Or alternatively, we save a lot of money:

    https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/nick-ferrari/bin-hs2-now-jacob-rees-mogg-says/

    Not that JRM is going to be voting for the deal (at least, I don't think he will), but interesting that he's brought up something that I've suggested could be done to placate some MPs.
  • Trump is now an ordinary politican. Lots of president's face ' wave ' elections at midterms but that's exactly the point. He's no longer an alchemist. The paradigm isn't new after all. Now he's been shown to be quite ordinary in electoral terms all the other crazy stuff associated with him will return. The press, the deep state, the Democratic House, even some Republicans will be relentless. There is clearly ample material there to bring him down and electoral counter mobilisation against him is proven to be possible.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 4,329

    Florida, Michigan, Ohio and Pennslyvannia are swing states. They’ll be crucial in the next election. I can’t see states like Arizona and Georgia voting Democratic though. All Presidents must suffer big drops in popularity when the reality of being in office starts. Obama was hammered by the press in his first term.

    Be interesting to see comparable approval rating figures for other Presidents in their first term for comparison.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

    Scroll down to see the comparisons at this stage of their presidency. His net approval rate at this stage is similar to Clinton, Reagan and Ford.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 9,074
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Trump is unpopular now but unlike the UK there is no leader of the opposition, no-one to compare him against. If the Dems pick the wrong candidate to oppose him in 2020 things could change rapidly. Trump doesn't have to be popular, he just has to be less unpopular than his opponent.

    Yes, good point. I’m still not sure the Democrats understand why they lost to Trump two years ago, and they show every sign of choosing another costal liberal who thinks the most important issues facing America are transgender and vegan rights. If they can’t find a candidate with at least some appeal in the swing states that Trump took (some on very small margins), then they’ll lose to him again in 2020.
    We’ll see.
    It’s not my impression if the state of play.

    ‘Coastal liberal’ is a pretty tired Republican trope - and so broad in its application to be essentially meaningless. Could be applied to anyone from Biden to Sanders.
    Unless you’re suggesting they have to nominate a moderate Republican to win ?

    Yeah, it is nonsense.

    Which coastal liberal candidate has said that?

    And from the maps it is pretty clear that apart from Appalacia and the high plains Trumps sheen has worn off. Even Americans can recognise an arsehole in the end.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 49,750
    Another small drift on Ladbrokes.

    A second referendum goes from 2.5 to 2.75, no second referendum shortens from 1.44 to 1.75.

    For reference, I think the respective odds were 2.25 and 1.75 (or thereabouts) in early December.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 18,172
    Oh no David Davis on R4. Blood pressure alert.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 33,949
    In a week, the House of Commons will get its first chance to vote on Theresa May’s Brexit deal. It’s not perfect, and few people would have started from here. But it is a reasonable deal that takes us right out of the EU and the Single Market. And yet it seems that some Eurosceptic MPs just don’t want to take yes for an answer.

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2019/01/henry-newman-end-free-movement-stop-paying-money-to-brussels-is-the-backstop-really-so-awful.html
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 22,172
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Trump is unpopular now but unlike the UK there is no leader of the opposition, no-one to compare him against. If the Dems pick the wrong candidate to oppose him in 2020 things could change rapidly. Trump doesn't have to be popular, he just has to be less unpopular than his opponent.

    Yes, good point. I’m still not sure the Democrats understand why they lost to Trump two years ago, and they show every sign of choosing another costal liberal who thinks the most important issues facing America are transgender and vegan rights. If they can’t find a candidate with at least some appeal in the swing states that Trump took (some on very small margins), then they’ll lose to him again in 2020.
    We’ll see.
    It’s not my impression if the state of play.

    ‘Coastal liberal’ is a pretty tired Republican trope - and so broad in its application to be essentially meaningless. Could be applied to anyone from Biden to Sanders.
    Unless you’re suggesting they have to nominate a moderate Republican to win ?
    I’m suggesting that they need to understand that the problem isn’t Trump himself, but rather millions of Americans who don’t live on the coasts, have a vote and believe that they no longer have a stake in society. That famous Republican strategist Michael Moore put it very well in the run-up to the election (can’t find the video on my phone but will post a link to it later).

    The Democrats need to choose someone who will appeal to swing voters in swing states. Bernie would undoubtedly beaten Trump, as a fair few of the disenfranchised would have agreed with him rather than his opponent. Biden would also have won IMO, I understand his given reasons for not running, but it *looked* like a Dem stitch-up for Hillary as a result. Sadly JB is probably too old now, his chance was in 2016. He would have made a good president.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 19,459
    TOPPING said:

    Ed Miliband is not supporting the deal because it “kicks the can down the road” and doesn’t address the customs union or an FTA.

    Either he is incredibly stupid or he thinks Labour Party supporters are incredibly stupid.

    its not an either or its a both and
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 12,183

    Sandpit said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Trump is unpopular now but unlike the UK there is no leader of the opposition, no-one to compare him against. If the Dems pick the wrong candidate to oppose him in 2020 things could change rapidly. Trump doesn't have to be popular, he just has to be less unpopular than his opponent.

    Yes, good point. I’m still not sure the Democrats understand why they lost to Trump two years ago, and they show every sign of choosing another costal liberal who thinks the most important issues facing America are transgender and vegan rights. If they can’t find a candidate with at least some appeal in the swing states that Trump took (some on very small margins), then they’ll lose to him again in 2020.
    They have learnt nothing, and forgotten nothing.
    Again, I get quite a different impression.
    They have, for example, learned a great deal form Republican congressional tactics at the time of the last shutdown.

    And they seem to have learned enough to take back several statehouses, and the House of Representatives.

    Of course you could simply be reciting another cliche.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 33,949

    I couldn't face the Brexit movie.

    It's an entertaining drama - not a documentary - and it seems to be upsetting all the right people - I thoroughly enjoyed it.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 8,685
    A 29% probability of reelection for an incumbent president is extraordinarily low. But unless something changes, probably accurate. Specifically Trump needs to win the votes of those that went Hilary last time but now think he's the guy.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 19,459
    Elmar Brok one of Merkels arch integrationists and Brexit representaitve for the EPP has been deselected by his local party for the Euro elections. CDU seem to be cutting up Merkels legacy before she has gone.

    https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article186708092/Europapolitiker-Vorstand-der-NRW-CDU-kippt-Elmar-Brok.html
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 8,685
    TOPPING said:

    Ed Miliband is not supporting the deal because it “kicks the can down the road” and doesn’t address the customs union or an FTA.

    Either he is incredibly stupid or he thinks Labour Party supporters are incredibly stupid.

    He's correct on all three points. I'm not sure why he's stupid?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 12,183
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Trump is unpopular now but unlike the UK there is no leader of the opposition, no-one to compare him against. If the Dems pick the wrong candidate to oppose him in 2020 things could change rapidly. Trump doesn't have to be popular, he just has to be less unpopular than his opponent.

    Yes, good point. I’m still not sure the Democrats understand why they lost to Trump two years ago, and they show every sign of choosing another costal liberal who thinks the most important issues facing America are transgender and vegan rights. If they can’t find a candidate with at least some appeal in the swing states that Trump took (some on very small margins), then they’ll lose to him again in 2020.
    We’ll see.
    It’s not my impression if the state of play.

    ‘Coastal liberal’ is a pretty tired Republican trope - and so broad in its application to be essentially meaningless. Could be applied to anyone from Biden to Sanders.
    Unless you’re suggesting they have to nominate a moderate Republican to win ?
    I’m suggesting that they need to understand that the problem isn’t Trump himself, but rather millions of Americans who don’t live on the coasts, have a vote and believe that they no longer have a stake in society. That famous Republican strategist Michael Moore put it very well in the run-up to the election (can’t find the video on my phone but will post a link to it later).

    The Democrats need to choose someone who will appeal to swing voters in swing states. Bernie would undoubtedly beaten Trump, as a fair few of the disenfranchised would have agreed with him rather than his opponent. Biden would also have won IMO, I understand his given reasons for not running, but it *looked* like a Dem stitch-up for Hillary as a result. Sadly JB is probably too old now, his chance was in 2016. He would have made a good president.
    Again, we'll see.

    Clearly some potential candidates are considerably better than others, but I think quite a broad range of Democratic nominees could win. (And FWIW, the change away from caucuses to primaries in several states will probably improve the chances of the more established candidates like Biden.)
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 5,507
    Isn't Parliament acting like a primary school playground at the moment? They're all having sulks and forming cliques. They don't want A but they really really really hate C so they threaten B to spite the others.

    And they all being 'orrible to little Miss Soubry, calling her a Nazi and pulling her pigtails. Hasn't 'Nazi' been over-used by the hard left for the last sixty years? I suppose she's only six, so wouldn't know that.

    If a hung jury can't decide, they send them away and pick a completely new jury. If they carry on, sack 'em all and pick a completely new set of MPs. I suspect you'd get a swift decision with that threat.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 22,172
    As suggested, by my good self and others, it’s looking very much like Parliament could be sitting six or seven days a week for the next three months, in order to get everything through that’s needed to enable Brexit to happen on schedule.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/06/theresa-may-holds-brexit-crisis-meeting-decide-whether-parliament/
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 11,118

    Florida, Michigan, Ohio and Pennslyvannia are swing states. They’ll be crucial in the next election. I can’t see states like Arizona and Georgia voting Democratic though. All Presidents must suffer big drops in popularity when the reality of being in office starts. Obama was hammered by the press in his first term.

    Be interesting to see comparable approval rating figures for other Presidents in their first term for comparison.

    https://news.gallup.com/interactives/185273/presidential-job-approval-center.aspx

    He doesn't compare well.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 19,459
    Roger said:
    pot and kettle Roger old chap, Im sure there were many times youd have happily called La Soubry a Nazi yourself since she resides in the party that dare not speak its name
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 12,457
    FF43 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Ed Miliband is not supporting the deal because it “kicks the can down the road” and doesn’t address the customs union or an FTA.

    Either he is incredibly stupid or he thinks Labour Party supporters are incredibly stupid.

    He's correct on all three points. I'm not sure why he's stupid?
    +1. It's a rubbish deal, and the threat of No Deal as the awful alternative is not credible.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 56,070
    The shift against Trump has been mainly in the Midwest, however his biggest net negative figures (with the exception of Illinois because of Chicago) are still on the coasts ie California, New York, Massachussetts, Maryland, Hawaii, Oregon etc and areas with large Hispanic populations like New Mexico which were all Hillary states in 2016.

    If the Democrats put up another liberal elitist from the coasts Trump could well win the Midwest swing states, the Electoral College and the presidency again
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 23,828
    FF43 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Ed Miliband is not supporting the deal because it “kicks the can down the road” and doesn’t address the customs union or an FTA.

    Either he is incredibly stupid or he thinks Labour Party supporters are incredibly stupid.

    He's correct on all three points. I'm not sure why he's stupid?
    I'm unsure it classifies as 'stupid', but he's ignoring the consequences of his actions.

    It's fair enough to say that one option in a binary decision has problems; but if that forces you into the other option, then you have to acknowledge the problems that option has as well.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 19,459

    FF43 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Ed Miliband is not supporting the deal because it “kicks the can down the road” and doesn’t address the customs union or an FTA.

    Either he is incredibly stupid or he thinks Labour Party supporters are incredibly stupid.

    He's correct on all three points. I'm not sure why he's stupid?
    +1. It's a rubbish deal, and the threat of No Deal as the awful alternative is not credible.
    so your sugesstion is ?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 11,896
    Davis excellent on R4. Clarified the main points on Brexit, debunked myths, pointed to the way ahead and steadfast on the bad deal. A PM in waiting.

    Or at least that’s how he thinks it went.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,430
    It’s clear now that the establishment are going to ignore the people’s choice to leave the EU and make us think again. Brexit is not going to happen, democracy is finished, and I will never vote Tory again and I’ve been voting Tory for 30 years. This betrayal of democracy is being played out before our eyes . They were never going to allow us to leave their gravy train , why we ever thought there was a chance is beyond me .
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 3,977
    kjohnw said:

    It’s clear now that the establishment are going to ignore the people’s choice to leave the EU and make us think again. Brexit is not going to happen, democracy is finished, and I will never vote Tory again and I’ve been voting Tory for 30 years. This betrayal of democracy is being played out before our eyes . They were never going to allow us to leave their gravy train , why we ever thought there was a chance is beyond me .

    Blame the Brexit leaders. There was no plan.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 56,070
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Trump is unpopular now but unlike the UK there is no leader of the opposition, no-one to compare him against. If the Dems pick the wrong candidate to oppose him in 2020 things could change rapidly. Trump doesn't have to be popular, he just has to be less unpopular than his opponent.

    Yes, good point. I’m still not sure the Democrats understand why they lost to Trump two years ago, and they show every sign of choosing another costal liberal who thinks the most important issues facing America are transgender and vegan rights. If they can’t find a candidate with at least some appeal in the swing states that Trump took (some on very small margins), then they’ll lose to him again in 2020.
    We’ll see.
    It’s not my impression if the state of play.

    ‘Coastal liberal’ is a pretty tired Republican trope - and so broad in its application to be essentially meaningless. Could be applied to anyone from Biden to Sanders.
    Unless you’re suggesting they have to nominate a moderate Republican to win ?

    No, culturally Biden and Sanders do not come off as elitist coastal liberals but can connect with blue collar workers.

    Warren, Harris, Booker, Gilibrand etc though do, much as Hillary did in 2016
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 12,457
    TOPPING said:

    matt said:

    TOPPING said:

    Ed Miliband is not supporting the deal because it “kicks the can down the road” and doesn’t address the customs union or an FTA.

    Either he is incredibly stupid or he thinks Labour Party supporters are incredibly stupid.

    He's an MP. Both?
    Actually it is of course a clever move. Unarguably fake news but who is there to call him on it? But yes, both is most likely although it also shows a perhaps disappointing contempt for his Party’s supporters.
    No it isn't. There is a moderate amount of pressure in the party for a second referendum (reported in the Guardian as more intense than it is), which I think will increase if the May deal is indeed rejected. There is no pressure at all to support May's deal - I literally know zero Labour people who think it should go through.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 56,070
    kjohnw said:

    It’s clear now that the establishment are going to ignore the people’s choice to leave the EU and make us think again. Brexit is not going to happen, democracy is finished, and I will never vote Tory again and I’ve been voting Tory for 30 years. This betrayal of democracy is being played out before our eyes . They were never going to allow us to leave their gravy train , why we ever thought there was a chance is beyond me .

    Why? May is not going to allow EUref2 with a Remain option and nor will.most Tory MPs.

    If we go to No Deal we likely get PM Boris sooner or later
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 12,457
    kyf_100 said:

    Trump is unpopular now but unlike the UK there is no leader of the opposition, no-one to compare him against. If the Dems pick the wrong candidate to oppose him in 2020 things could change rapidly. Trump doesn't have to be popular, he just has to be less unpopular than his opponent.

    Yes, and people who slam Hillary tend to underestimate that. Trump is a very effective attack dog, and any other candidate would have faced that relentless barrage ("Commie Sanders" would have been just the first of many insults) and might well have fared similarly. Arguably the Democrats need an attack dog as well rather than a dignified figure - it won't be pretty but it may be necessary.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 33,949
    Someone else looking over the brink?

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 23,828
    HYUFD said:

    kjohnw said:

    It’s clear now that the establishment are going to ignore the people’s choice to leave the EU and make us think again. Brexit is not going to happen, democracy is finished, and I will never vote Tory again and I’ve been voting Tory for 30 years. This betrayal of democracy is being played out before our eyes . They were never going to allow us to leave their gravy train , why we ever thought there was a chance is beyond me .

    Why? May is not going to allow EUref2 with a Remain option and nor will.most Tory MPs.

    If we go to No Deal we likely get PM Boris sooner or later
    And the Conservative Party dies as an electoral force.

    Which would not be much of a change, as it's frequently been an electoral farce. ;)
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 11,207
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Trump is unpopular now but unlike the UK there is no leader of the opposition, no-one to compare him against. If the Dems pick the wrong candidate to oppose him in 2020 things could change rapidly. Trump doesn't have to be popular, he just has to be less unpopular than his opponent.

    Yes, good point. I’m still not sure the Democrats understand why they lost to Trump two years ago, and they show every sign of choosing another costal liberal who thinks the most important issues facing America are transgender and vegan rights. If they can’t find a candidate with at least some appeal in the swing states that Trump took (some on very small margins), then they’ll lose to him again in 2020.
    We’ll see.
    It’s not my impression if the state of play.

    ‘Coastal liberal’ is a pretty tired Republican trope - and so broad in its application to be essentially meaningless. Could be applied to anyone from Biden to Sanders.
    Unless you’re suggesting they have to nominate a moderate Republican to win ?

    No, KLOBUCHAR!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,644

    FF43 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Ed Miliband is not supporting the deal because it “kicks the can down the road” and doesn’t address the customs union or an FTA.

    Either he is incredibly stupid or he thinks Labour Party supporters are incredibly stupid.

    He's correct on all three points. I'm not sure why he's stupid?
    +1. It's a rubbish deal, and the threat of No Deal as the awful alternative is not credible.
    It's a very real potential consequence. I think mps are more than entitled to vote against the deal but a great many display incredibly reckless dismissal of any consequences to their doing so because they don't like the potential options, because they pretend they will easily get remain or magical new deal rather than the huge risk it is.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,644

    FF43 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Ed Miliband is not supporting the deal because it “kicks the can down the road” and doesn’t address the customs union or an FTA.

    Either he is incredibly stupid or he thinks Labour Party supporters are incredibly stupid.

    He's correct on all three points. I'm not sure why he's stupid?
    +1. It's a rubbish deal, and the threat of No Deal as the awful alternative is not credible.
    so your sugesstion is ?
    Unicorns.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 22,172
    Roger said:
    Certain sections of the media are genuinely losing their minds at the moment. I’m all for the freedom of the press, but contingency planning is going to start being marked secret and with D-notices attached if this is how exercises get reported.

    They are talking up the chaos narrative so much that it could become a self-fulfilling prophesy, causing panic buying and shortages of essentials. But hey, it generates clicks.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 19,459
    Payback time

    after months of listening to lectures from Macron the parties in the Italian government have come out to back the yellow vest movement offering the protestors their support against the french government. Di Maio for 5 star hasoffered any pracctial help he can provide.

    https://www.lastampa.it/2019/01/08/italia/di-maio-corteggia-i-gilet-gialli-siamo-con-voi-IGCWPTcTaiLcNWNkBybn7M/pagina.html
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 1,655
    edited January 8
    Just saw Tim Montgomerie's tweet re: Soubry from last night. What a nasty piece of work he's become. A real jump-the-shark moment.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,644

    Someone else looking over the brink?

    That sort of thing is openly talked about as giving us a fig leaf so it won't persuade the DUP and therefore a load if Tory mps. And even if it does that's still not enough to pass it.

    The real problem is no deal is politically quite attractive to too many people, so while not that many want it as the preferred option, not enough actually fear it, and others just ignore it because ignoring it always works right. The Irish border issue is practically a distraction.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 56,070
    edited January 8

    HYUFD said:

    kjohnw said:

    It’s clear now that the establishment are going to ignore the people’s choice to leave the EU and make us think again. Brexit is not going to happen, democracy is finished, and I will never vote Tory again and I’ve been voting Tory for 30 years. This betrayal of democracy is being played out before our eyes . They were never going to allow us to leave their gravy train , why we ever thought there was a chance is beyond me .

    Why? May is not going to allow EUref2 with a Remain option and nor will.most Tory MPs.

    If we go to No Deal we likely get PM Boris sooner or later
    And the Conservative Party dies as an electoral force.

    Which would not be much of a change, as it's frequently been an electoral farce. ;)
    Why? Around 45% of voters are prepared to back No Deal against Remain if the Deal is no longer an option in the polls, the Tories only need around 40% to win under FPTP, especially if Remainers continue to move from Labour to the LDs as Corbyn is failing to sufficiently oppose Brexit and back EUref2 with a Remain option
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 19,459
    I prefer to think of it as more communautaire, adopting the ways of our continental cousins
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,644

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Trump is unpopular now but unlike the UK there is no leader of the opposition, no-one to compare him against. If the Dems pick the wrong candidate to oppose him in 2020 things could change rapidly. Trump doesn't have to be popular, he just has to be less unpopular than his opponent.

    Yes, good point. I’m still not sure the Democrats understand why they lost to Trump two years ago, and they show every sign of choosing another costal liberal who thinks the most important issues facing America are transgender and vegan rights. If they can’t find a candidate with at least some appeal in the swing states that Trump took (some on very small margins), then they’ll lose to him again in 2020.
    We’ll see.
    It’s not my impression if the state of play.

    ‘Coastal liberal’ is a pretty tired Republican trope - and so broad in its application to be essentially meaningless. Could be applied to anyone from Biden to Sanders.
    Unless you’re suggesting they have to nominate a moderate Republican to win ?

    No, KLOBUCHAR!
    It says something that the name is so memorable but I don't recall if they are a man or a woman.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 49,750
    Mr. kle4, any 'reassurances' will be verbal promises with no legal force.

    Like when the EU were going to reform the CAP if only Blair threw away half the rebate.

    Or when Clegg insisted an EU Army was a fantasy.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 16,676
    OK Sony wins the internet today.

    Outdoor speaker with built in cup holders for up to four pints.

    https://www.theverge.com/2019/1/7/18172990/sony-gtk-p10-party-speaker-cup-holders-announced-ces-2019

    What more can a guy ask for!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 20,219
    kyf_100 said:

    Trump is unpopular now but unlike the UK there is no leader of the opposition, no-one to compare him against. If the Dems pick the wrong candidate to oppose him in 2020 things could change rapidly. Trump doesn't have to be popular, he just has to be less unpopular than his opponent.

    Had the Dems not picked the extremely divisive and unpopular Hillary there is every likelihood Trump would have lost 2016 of course.

    Can you imagine Trump beating Obama? Or Bill Clinton in his prime?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 22,172

    Someone else looking over the brink?

    Unless he’s talking about reopening the actual legally binding WA Treaty, then it’s going to make no difference whatsoever. Any WA with the backstop text is a dodo in Parliament.

    Oh, and Leo is the proverbial cooked bread if it’s no-deal.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 18,172
    FF43 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Ed Miliband is not supporting the deal because it “kicks the can down the road” and doesn’t address the customs union or an FTA.

    Either he is incredibly stupid or he thinks Labour Party supporters are incredibly stupid.

    He's correct on all three points. I'm not sure why he's stupid?
    The WA is nothing to do with the future trading relationship.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,644

    Mr. kle4, any 'reassurances' will be verbal promises with no legal force.

    Like when the EU were going to reform the CAP if only Blair threw away half the rebate.

    Or when Clegg insisted an EU Army was a fantasy.

    I'm sure it might sway a few votes, but no more, because if that.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 11,207
    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Trump is unpopular now but unlike the UK there is no leader of the opposition, no-one to compare him against. If the Dems pick the wrong candidate to oppose him in 2020 things could change rapidly. Trump doesn't have to be popular, he just has to be less unpopular than his opponent.

    Yes, good point. I’m still not sure the Democrats understand why they lost to Trump two years ago, and they show every sign of choosing another costal liberal who thinks the most important issues facing America are transgender and vegan rights. If they can’t find a candidate with at least some appeal in the swing states that Trump took (some on very small margins), then they’ll lose to him again in 2020.
    We’ll see.
    It’s not my impression if the state of play.

    ‘Coastal liberal’ is a pretty tired Republican trope - and so broad in its application to be essentially meaningless. Could be applied to anyone from Biden to Sanders.
    Unless you’re suggesting they have to nominate a moderate Republican to win ?

    No, KLOBUCHAR!
    It says something that the name is so memorable but I don't recall if they are a man or a woman.
    No only is she a woman, she lives really, really far from the coast.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,644
    HYUFD said:

    kjohnw said:

    It’s clear now that the establishment are going to ignore the people’s choice to leave the EU and make us think again. Brexit is not going to happen, democracy is finished, and I will never vote Tory again and I’ve been voting Tory for 30 years. This betrayal of democracy is being played out before our eyes . They were never going to allow us to leave their gravy train , why we ever thought there was a chance is beyond me .

    Why? May is not going to allow EUref2 with a Remain option and nor will.most Tory MPs.

    If we go to No Deal we likely get PM Boris sooner or later
    If they want brexit she will have to do it. I can see some bringing down the gov over no deal
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 11,584
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Trump is unpopular now but unlike the UK there is no leader of the opposition, no-one to compare him against. If the Dems pick the wrong candidate to oppose him in 2020 things could change rapidly. Trump doesn't have to be popular, he just has to be less unpopular than his opponent.

    Yes, good point. I’m still not sure the Democrats understand why they lost to Trump two years ago, and they show every sign of choosing another costal liberal who thinks the most important issues facing America are transgender and vegan rights. If they can’t find a candidate with at least some appeal in the swing states that Trump took (some on very small margins), then they’ll lose to him again in 2020.
    We’ll see.
    It’s not my impression if the state of play.

    ‘Coastal liberal’ is a pretty tired Republican trope - and so broad in its application to be essentially meaningless. Could be applied to anyone from Biden to Sanders.
    Unless you’re suggesting they have to nominate a moderate Republican to win ?
    I’m suggesting that they need to understand that the problem isn’t Trump himself, but rather millions of Americans who don’t live on the coasts, have a vote and believe that they no longer have a stake in society. That famous Republican strategist Michael Moore put it very well in the run-up to the election (can’t find the video on my phone but will post a link to it later).

    The Democrats need to choose someone who will appeal to swing voters in swing states. Bernie would undoubtedly beaten Trump, as a fair few of the disenfranchised would have agreed with him rather than his opponent. Biden would also have won IMO, I understand his given reasons for not running, but it *looked* like a Dem stitch-up for Hillary as a result. Sadly JB is probably too old now, his chance was in 2016. He would have made a good president.
    Joe Biden last time had been the sitting Vice President for eight years and hence the only candidate more vulnerable than Hillary to attacks as the ultimate Washington insider.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 18,172

    TOPPING said:

    matt said:

    TOPPING said:

    Ed Miliband is not supporting the deal because it “kicks the can down the road” and doesn’t address the customs union or an FTA.

    Either he is incredibly stupid or he thinks Labour Party supporters are incredibly stupid.

    He's an MP. Both?
    Actually it is of course a clever move. Unarguably fake news but who is there to call him on it? But yes, both is most likely although it also shows a perhaps disappointing contempt for his Party’s supporters.
    No it isn't. There is a moderate amount of pressure in the party for a second referendum (reported in the Guardian as more intense than it is), which I think will increase if the May deal is indeed rejected. There is no pressure at all to support May's deal - I literally know zero Labour people who think it should go through.
    I would be amazed and disappointed if any Labour MPs voted for the deal; that's not their job. But criticise it along the lines of I wouldn't have started from here. Do not misdirect as Miliband did by saying the deal doesn't address issues it is not supposed to address.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 11,346

    Roger said:
    pot and kettle Roger old chap, Im sure there were many times youd have happily called La Soubry a Nazi yourself since she resides in the party that dare not speak its name
    Everyone loves a repenting sinner and they don't come better than La Soubry.....

    (But more important. You couldn't put in a good word for me at the Irish Embassy could you?)
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 15,007

    I couldn't face the Brexit movie.

    It's an entertaining drama - not a documentary - and it seems to be upsetting all the right people - I thoroughly enjoyed it.
    Made some good points. though. I was like Mr YS at first, then when my wife was surprised I didn't want to watch it, we did. Left me with quite a few thoughts, see upthread. Notably that, as reminded, Obama used similar techniques with social media, why were Remain so over-confident, so assured and, it seemed, contemptuous of their opposition.
    Also underlined for me the arrogance of Cameron and his inner circle.

    Agree with Ms V, though; a drama, based on events, and with some contemporary footage, not a documentary.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 18,172
    So David Davis' view is that the EU will eventually cave and agree our version of the deal.

    We shall see.
  • Morning all and apologies for ignoring the thread which is a good one.

    Firstly sorry I missed both Alistair's EU thread and Mike's GE threads yesterday. Not often I say it but I agreed with much of what both wrote and interesting others are seeing what I have suggested for several months, that Theresa may get her deal through on the back of Labour abstentions.

    I was sorry to see Anna Soubry jostled yesterday in the way she was but Anna is a tough old bird and handled much worse. However MPs better get ready for a lot more of such behaviour if they think they can thwart the wishes of 17.4 million voters! As I said last week, the yellow vest protests in France would be a kiddies party in comparison to what might happen here.

    What many of you will not realise is that outside the M25 just how much the rest of the country is increasingly loathing London, Londoners and the London-centric attitude. If you take London out of the 2016 result, England voted heavily for Brexit and London politicians and journalists should not forget that. Similarly in Scotland while the cities swung the vote heavily in favour of remaining, many rural communities are staunch supporters of Brexit and the fishing community, while small in absolute numbers is a powerful group never the less. The British love our fish and chips more than we love London bankers (and everything which rhymes with that)!

    I don't like Theresa's May's deal but as she keeps repeating it is the only deal. I hope she succeeds because if she doesn't, I doubt the UK will survive. There could well be a growing call to get rid of Ulster and of course get rid of we Scots. English nationalism could be the big winner from the current chaos caused by MPs who cannot accept they are there to do what the voters tell them to do, not what they want to do!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,644
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    matt said:

    TOPPING said:

    Ed Miliband is not supporting the deal because it “kicks the can down the road” and doesn’t address the customs union or an FTA.

    Either he is incredibly stupid or he thinks Labour Party supporters are incredibly stupid.

    He's an MP. Both?
    Actually it is of course a clever move. Unarguably fake news but who is there to call him on it? But yes, both is most likely although it also shows a perhaps disappointing contempt for his Party’s supporters.
    No it isn't. There is a moderate amount of pressure in the party for a second referendum (reported in the Guardian as more intense than it is), which I think will increase if the May deal is indeed rejected. There is no pressure at all to support May's deal - I literally know zero Labour people who think it should go through.
    I would be amazed and disappointed if any Labour MPs voted for the deal; that's not their job. But criticise it along the lines of I wouldn't have started from here. Do not misdirect as Miliband did by saying the deal doesn't address issues it is not supposed to address.
    Well exactly. It reveals that strand of critique as motivated by partisan thinking, when as pointed out there's plenty good reasons to criticise it which are even cross party!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 22,172

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Trump is unpopular now but unlike the UK there is no leader of the opposition, no-one to compare him against. If the Dems pick the wrong candidate to oppose him in 2020 things could change rapidly. Trump doesn't have to be popular, he just has to be less unpopular than his opponent.

    Yes, good point. I’m still not sure the Democrats understand why they lost to Trump two years ago, and they show every sign of choosing another costal liberal who thinks the most important issues facing America are transgender and vegan rights. If they can’t find a candidate with at least some appeal in the swing states that Trump took (some on very small margins), then they’ll lose to him again in 2020.
    We’ll see.
    It’s not my impression if the state of play.

    ‘Coastal liberal’ is a pretty tired Republican trope - and so broad in its application to be essentially meaningless. Could be applied to anyone from Biden to Sanders.
    Unless you’re suggesting they have to nominate a moderate Republican to win ?
    I’m suggesting that they need to understand that the problem isn’t Trump himself, but rather millions of Americans who don’t live on the coasts, have a vote and believe that they no longer have a stake in society. That famous Republican strategist Michael Moore put it very well in the run-up to the election (can’t find the video on my phone but will post a link to it later).

    The Democrats need to choose someone who will appeal to swing voters in swing states. Bernie would undoubtedly beaten Trump, as a fair few of the disenfranchised would have agreed with him rather than his opponent. Biden would also have won IMO, I understand his given reasons for not running, but it *looked* like a Dem stitch-up for Hillary as a result. Sadly JB is probably too old now, his chance was in 2016. He would have made a good president.
    Joe Biden last time had been the sitting Vice President for eight years and hence the only candidate more vulnerable than Hillary to attacks as the ultimate Washington insider.
    Disagree. Yes, he’s obviously an experienced Washington politician, but as @HYUFD says upthread he can connect with blue-collar workers in a way that Hillary not only couldn’t, but gave the impression of not caring about at all.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 12,183
    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Trump is unpopular now but unlike the UK there is no leader of the opposition, no-one to compare him against. If the Dems pick the wrong candidate to oppose him in 2020 things could change rapidly. Trump doesn't have to be popular, he just has to be less unpopular than his opponent.

    Yes, good point. I’m still not sure the Democrats understand why they lost to Trump two years ago, and they show every sign of choosing another costal liberal who thinks the most important issues facing America are transgender and vegan rights. If they can’t find a candidate with at least some appeal in the swing states that Trump took (some on very small margins), then they’ll lose to him again in 2020.
    We’ll see.
    It’s not my impression if the state of play.

    ‘Coastal liberal’ is a pretty tired Republican trope - and so broad in its application to be essentially meaningless. Could be applied to anyone from Biden to Sanders.
    Unless you’re suggesting they have to nominate a moderate Republican to win ?

    ...Warren, Harris, Booker, Gilibrand etc though do, much as Hillary did in 2016
    No doubt that will be the Republican line.
    But none of them are Clinton.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 19,459
    Roger said:

    Roger said:
    pot and kettle Roger old chap, Im sure there were many times youd have happily called La Soubry a Nazi yourself since she resides in the party that dare not speak its name
    Everyone loves a repenting sinner and they don't come better than La Soubry.....

    (But more important. You couldn't put in a good word for me at the Irish Embassy could you?)
    youd love Dublin Roger
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,595

    Just saw Tim Montgomerie's tweet re: Soubry from last night. What a nasty piece of work he's become. A real jump-the-shark moment.

    Surely not. he is a Christian
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 18,172

    What many of you will not realise is that outside the M25 just how much the rest of the country is increasingly loathing London, Londoners and the London-centric attitude.

    No it isn't. Outside the M25 the country is getting on with its life.

    PB posters who live outside the M25 might be another kettle of fish (haddock, not cod).
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 12,183

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Trump is unpopular now but unlike the UK there is no leader of the opposition, no-one to compare him against. If the Dems pick the wrong candidate to oppose him in 2020 things could change rapidly. Trump doesn't have to be popular, he just has to be less unpopular than his opponent.

    Yes, good point. I’m still not sure the Democrats understand why they lost to Trump two years ago, and they show every sign of choosing another costal liberal who thinks the most important issues facing America are transgender and vegan rights. If they can’t find a candidate with at least some appeal in the swing states that Trump took (some on very small margins), then they’ll lose to him again in 2020.
    We’ll see.
    It’s not my impression if the state of play.

    ‘Coastal liberal’ is a pretty tired Republican trope - and so broad in its application to be essentially meaningless. Could be applied to anyone from Biden to Sanders.
    Unless you’re suggesting they have to nominate a moderate Republican to win ?

    No, KLOBUCHAR!
    Gesundheit.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 7,440

    I prefer to think of it as more communautaire, adopting the ways of our continental cousins
    Politics is just getting more brutal, everywhere:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/08/german-far-right-mp-frank-magnitz-injured-in-politically-motivated-attack

    It's up to all sides to look at themeselves as well, and cut this violence and intimidation out.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 19,459
    TOPPING said:

    What many of you will not realise is that outside the M25 just how much the rest of the country is increasingly loathing London, Londoners and the London-centric attitude.

    No it isn't. Outside the M25 the country is getting on with its life.

    PB posters who live outside the M25 might be another kettle of fish (haddock, not cod).
    spend a lot of time in Wolverhampton and Nuneaton Mr T ?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 19,459

    I prefer to think of it as more communautaire, adopting the ways of our continental cousins
    Politics is just getting more brutal, everywhere:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/08/german-far-right-mp-frank-magnitz-injured-in-politically-motivated-attack

    It's up to all sides to look at themeselves as well, and cut this violence and intimidation out.
    maybe or equally its time politicians stopped pretending they can deliver everything in life and gave people more responsibility
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 15,007
    edited January 8

    Morning all and apologies for ignoring the thread which is a good one.

    Firstly sorry I missed both Alistair's EU thread and Mike's GE threads yesterday. Not often I say it but I agreed with much of what both wrote and interesting others are seeing what I have suggested for several months, that Theresa may get her deal through on the back of Labour abstentions.

    I was sorry to see Anna Soubry jostled yesterday in the way she was but Anna is a tough old bird and handled much worse. However MPs better get ready for a lot more of such behaviour if they think they can thwart the wishes of 17.4 million voters! As I said last week, the yellow vest protests in France would be a kiddies party in comparison to what might happen here.

    What many of you will not realise is that outside the M25 just how much the rest of the country is increasingly loathing London, Londoners and the London-centric attitude. If you take London out of the 2016 result, England voted heavily for Brexit and London politicians and journalists should not forget that. Similarly in Scotland while the cities swung the vote heavily in favour of remaining, many rural communities are staunch supporters of Brexit and the fishing community, while small in absolute numbers is a powerful group never the less. The British love our fish and chips more than we love London bankers (and everything which rhymes with that)!

    I don't like Theresa's May's deal but as she keeps repeating it is the only deal. I hope she succeeds because if she doesn't, I doubt the UK will survive. There could well be a growing call to get rid of Ulster and of course get rid of we Scots. English nationalism could be the big winner from the current chaos caused by MPs who cannot accept they are there to do what the voters tell them to do, not what they want to do!

    Agree with the sentiment, although the last sentence is WRONG. We do NOT elect delegates, to vote as their constituents wish. We elect people to become informed and use their best judgement on the information presented to them. We might not agree with them, but we must then use persuasion to get them to accept our views.

    And I write as a Lib/Lab/LD voter who has, IIRC voted for a winning Parliamentary candidate on two occasions out of the 16 GE's since I've been old enough to vote. And I've voted every time!
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 25,196



    What many of you will not realise is that outside the M25 just how much the rest of the country is increasingly loathing London, Londoners and the London-centric attitude.

    The rest of the country doesn't hate London enough to give it back the money it gets from London.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 25,196
    On topic, 29% looks about right. The Democrats would now need to find a candidate who resonated less with the USA than Hillary Clinton. They're quite capable of that.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 2,935
    Sandpit said:

    Someone else looking over the brink?

    Unless he’s talking about reopening the actual legally binding WA Treaty, then it’s going to make no difference whatsoever. Any WA with the backstop text is a dodo in Parliament.

    Oh, and Leo is the proverbial cooked bread if it’s no-deal.
    And they won't change the Withdrawal Agreement because the backstop is vital to avoid the danger of a hard border in several years' time - even if the presence of the backstop leads to the Agreement being rejected and to No Deal in March???

    Brexit is a bit difficult to understand at times.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 18,172

    TOPPING said:

    What many of you will not realise is that outside the M25 just how much the rest of the country is increasingly loathing London, Londoners and the London-centric attitude.

    No it isn't. Outside the M25 the country is getting on with its life.

    PB posters who live outside the M25 might be another kettle of fish (haddock, not cod).
    spend a lot of time in Wolverhampton and Nuneaton Mr T ?
    Good morning Alan - I spend plenty of time happily outiside the M25.

    Not made it to Hartlepool, that said - what's the mood on Middleton Road?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 20,219
    Chris said:

    Sandpit said:

    Someone else looking over the brink?

    Unless he’s talking about reopening the actual legally binding WA Treaty, then it’s going to make no difference whatsoever. Any WA with the backstop text is a dodo in Parliament.

    Oh, and Leo is the proverbial cooked bread if it’s no-deal.
    And they won't change the Withdrawal Agreement because the backstop is vital to avoid the danger of a hard border in several years' time - even if the presence of the backstop leads to the Agreement being rejected and to No Deal in March???

    Brexit is a bit difficult to understand at times.
    Precisely. Its nonsense.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 25,196
    Meanwhile, I'm sure some of the site's resident hardcore Leavers will be along to say why this isn't a problem at all:

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 18,172

    Chris said:

    Sandpit said:

    Someone else looking over the brink?

    Unless he’s talking about reopening the actual legally binding WA Treaty, then it’s going to make no difference whatsoever. Any WA with the backstop text is a dodo in Parliament.

    Oh, and Leo is the proverbial cooked bread if it’s no-deal.
    And they won't change the Withdrawal Agreement because the backstop is vital to avoid the danger of a hard border in several years' time - even if the presence of the backstop leads to the Agreement being rejected and to No Deal in March???

    Brexit is a bit difficult to understand at times.
    Precisely. Its nonsense.
    Brexit may well be nonsense, Phil, but that doesn't mean we should stop trying to unpick the arguments on both sides.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 7,440

    Meanwhile, I'm sure some of the site's resident hardcore Leavers will be along to say why this isn't a problem at all:

    The local conclusion is that there simply won't be customs checks...
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