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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What happens when the anti-Brexiteers united – those who want

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited January 9 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What happens when the anti-Brexiteers united – those who want it are split

By any standards the events that we are seeing at Westminster over the process of the government’s EU Exit legislation are completely unprecedented. Generally parliament is very much there to follow what the executive rules and Westminster’s structures and rules are designed to achieve that end.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 12,631
    First - Like LEAVE!
  • Brexit delenda est.

    (And I know that's poor Latin, but I can't be arsed to be perfect all the time)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,305
    edited January 9
    If the Commons does force an EU referendum with a Remain option by a majority vote after rejecting her Deal at least May can blame it on them rather than proposing it herself which she will not do
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 37,915
    OGH was one of the few people left who thought May's approach might eventually work. With even he starting to doubt I think that says it all about how dead Brexit really is now.

    But I do object to the refrain of it being parliament taking back control. It's funny, but if it is unprecedented then it is taking control, not taking back control they didn't previously have.Plus no one seems to have secured any control as a result, just further chaos.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 24,049
    edited January 9
    O/T

    Spanish politics has become remarkably fragmented recently. Latest opinion poll, with less than 10% between the top 5 parties.

    PSOE 22.4%
    Cs 18.5%
    PP 18.3%
    UP 17.1%
    VOX 12.5%

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Spanish_general_election#Voting_intention_estimates
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 15,259

    Brexit delenda est.

    (And I know that's poor Latin, but I can't be arsed to be perfect all the time)

    A friend of mine earlier today compared MPs to Tiberius Gracchus, vetoing everything out of petulance until they get their way.

    He added drily that perhaps they should reflect on what happened to Gracchus...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 37,915
    HYUFD said:

    If the Commons does force an EU referendum with a Remain option by a majority vote at least May can blame it on them rather than proposing it herself which she will not do

    If MPs focused even a tiny bit less on who will get what blame Brexit might be at least one iota less shittily undertaken.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 981
    This is hardly a surprise. Parliament is heavily weighted in favour of MPs (and a biased Speaker) who voted Remain; the payroll vote is too small because the Gov is in a minority and Labour have a leader who has no interest in anything except using every vote to try and bring down the Gov.

  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 2,425
    "Until this afternoon I thought that this TMay’s strategy of wearing the Commons down until there was no real time left would succeed in getting her deal through. Now I am much less convinced...

    Quite where this goes is hard to predict but we could get to situation where a Commons motion calling for a second referendum. Mrs. May could ignore that but I think she would find it very difficult."


    Why?

    On the one hand, she ignores some MPs.

    On the other hand, she claims she's listening to and respecting the result of the first referendum.

    May has no apparent incentive to give in: unless she suddenly and unexpectedly buckles and gives up on the Deal (in which she's invested everything) then we come back again to the key point: are there enough Conservative MPs who are willing to remove their own Prime Minister in a formal vote of no confidence in order to block Brexit? All else is noise.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 37,915
    ydoethur said:

    Brexit delenda est.

    (And I know that's poor Latin, but I can't be arsed to be perfect all the time)

    A friend of mine earlier today compared MPs to Tiberius Gracchus, vetoing everything out of petulance until they get their way.

    He added drily that perhaps they should reflect on what happened to Gracchus...
    Was he the one who was beaten to death?
  • ydoethur said:

    Brexit delenda est.

    (And I know that's poor Latin, but I can't be arsed to be perfect all the time)

    A friend of mine earlier today compared MPs to Tiberius Gracchus, vetoing everything out of petulance until they get their way.

    He added drily that perhaps they should reflect on what happened to Gracchus...
    If I get time I'm going to do a history lesson for PBers this Sunday.
  • kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Brexit delenda est.

    (And I know that's poor Latin, but I can't be arsed to be perfect all the time)

    A friend of mine earlier today compared MPs to Tiberius Gracchus, vetoing everything out of petulance until they get their way.

    He added drily that perhaps they should reflect on what happened to Gracchus...
    Was he the one who was beaten to death?
    Yah, and his brother too for trying the same thing later on.
  • eekeek Posts: 2,588
    kle4 said:

    OGH was one of the few people left who thought May's approach might eventually work. With even he starting to doubt I think that says it all about how dead Brexit really is now.

    But I do object to the refrain of it being parliament taking back control. It's funny, but if it is unprecedented then it is taking control, not taking back control they didn't previously have.Plus no one seems to have secured any control as a result, just further chaos.

    The approach did have a chance of working while each vote required 4-5 weeks (3 weeks before a decision needed to be made + 5 days for another debate as people once again stated their views for Hansard). Now MPs found a way of knocking those 4 weeks down to 3 or so days its no longer 2 votes and you are out of time there is the possibility of 5 more votes.

    Equally this actually doesn't change anything once next weeks vote is out of the way. Had the vote been held back in December May would today or at worse late next week being telling us what she was planning to do. Now next week she still has to tell us what she plans to do which has made the delay in December pointless although has revealed another card in Parliament's hand
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 12,631
    Of course while Parliament has spent another day going round and round in circles over mostly arcane nonsense so too has Brexit got another day closer...

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 37,915
    GIN1138 said:

    Of course while Parliament has spent another day going round and round in circles over mostly arcane nonsense so too has Brexit got another day closer...

    Yes, but the power of those who want to stop Brexit altogether is being marshalled through such arcana every day too. Still not easy, but with an open ally in the Speaker as well, they probably have many tricks yet up their sleeves.
  • We're headed for No Deal, whether that becomes sustained No Deal is the question.

    If it does, then I'd expect the government to fall.

    All those Brexiteers that promised sunlit uplands etc or said moving to WTO terms would be awesome for the UK economy are going to get absolutely gubbed in a general election.

    It will be their 'We abolished boom and bust' moment.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 981

    "Until this afternoon I thought that this TMay’s strategy of wearing the Commons down until there was no real time left would succeed in getting her deal through. Now I am much less convinced...

    Quite where this goes is hard to predict but we could get to situation where a Commons motion calling for a second referendum. Mrs. May could ignore that but I think she would find it very difficult."


    Why?

    On the one hand, she ignores some MPs.

    On the other hand, she claims she's listening to and respecting the result of the first referendum.

    May has no apparent incentive to give in: unless she suddenly and unexpectedly buckles and gives up on the Deal (in which she's invested everything) then we come back again to the key point: are there enough Conservative MPs who are willing to remove their own Prime Minister in a formal vote of no confidence in order to block Brexit? All else is noise.

    May listens to, and does, what the EU tell her. When she goes to Brussels, she is terrified and can’t get out of those quickly enough.

    At home, she listens to yes-men like Lidlington and Barlow who tell her what she wants to here. She ignores everyone else, including the DUP, which is why she is in the position she is.

    She is simply out of her depth as PM and too much of a control freak to trust anyone with decision making capability.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,373

    ydoethur said:

    Brexit delenda est.

    (And I know that's poor Latin, but I can't be arsed to be perfect all the time)

    A friend of mine earlier today compared MPs to Tiberius Gracchus, vetoing everything out of petulance until they get their way.

    He added drily that perhaps they should reflect on what happened to Gracchus...
    If I get time I'm going to do a history lesson for PBers this Sunday.
    The endless showing off on here over knowledge of ancient history is almost - but not quite - as nauseating as the falsely modest Fen Poly / Cowley Tech schtick.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,373

    This is hardly a surprise. Parliament is heavily weighted in favour of MPs (and a biased Speaker) who voted Remain; the payroll vote is too small because the Gov is in a minority and Labour have a leader who has no interest in anything except using every vote to try and bring down the Gov.


    It’s a left liberal remainer conspiracy.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 37,915
    edited January 9
    Anazina said:

    ydoethur said:

    Brexit delenda est.

    (And I know that's poor Latin, but I can't be arsed to be perfect all the time)

    A friend of mine earlier today compared MPs to Tiberius Gracchus, vetoing everything out of petulance until they get their way.

    He added drily that perhaps they should reflect on what happened to Gracchus...
    If I get time I'm going to do a history lesson for PBers this Sunday.
    The endless showing off on here over knowledge of ancient history is almost - but not quite - as nauseating as the falsely modest Fen Poly / Cowley Tech schtick.
    Personally I don't know why you let yourself get so annoyed by such things, it's like getting mad at a meme rather than just ignoring it. You have to also be self aware enough to know that complaining about people's personal tics is at least as annoying as any annoying tics.

    Hopefully pointing out people pointing out people's tics is ok though, for my sake.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 981

    We're headed for No Deal, whether that becomes sustained No Deal is the question.

    If it does, then I'd expect the government to fall.

    All those Brexiteers that promised sunlit uplands etc or said moving to WTO terms would be awesome for the UK economy are going to get absolutely gubbed in a general election.

    It will be their 'We abolished boom and bust' moment.

    If it comes to No Deal, which I doubt, it will be a difficult first few years because of the gross negligence of May and Hammond in failing to prepare for it. May should have gone for an FTA rather than a special relation which the EU were clearly not interested in.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,373
    kle4 said:

    Anazina said:

    ydoethur said:

    Brexit delenda est.

    (And I know that's poor Latin, but I can't be arsed to be perfect all the time)

    A friend of mine earlier today compared MPs to Tiberius Gracchus, vetoing everything out of petulance until they get their way.

    He added drily that perhaps they should reflect on what happened to Gracchus...
    If I get time I'm going to do a history lesson for PBers this Sunday.
    The endless showing off on here over knowledge of ancient history is almost - but not quite - as nauseating as the falsely modest Fen Poly / Cowley Tech schtick.
    Personally I don't know why you let yourself get so annoyed by such things, it's like getting mad at a meme rather than just ignoring it.
    Sadly, once something is read it cannot be unread.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 2,425
    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    Spanish politics has become remarkably fragmented recently. Latest opinion poll, with less than 10% between the top 5 parties.

    PSOE 22.4%
    Cs 18.5%
    PP 18.3%
    UP 17.1%
    VOX 12.5%

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Spanish_general_election#Voting_intention_estimates

    Note the sudden appearance of Vox. Spain, because of its relatively recent history, was meant to be one of the European polities least susceptible to the lure of the populist right. So much for that notion.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,305

    We're headed for No Deal, whether that becomes sustained No Deal is the question.

    If it does, then I'd expect the government to fall.

    All those Brexiteers that promised sunlit uplands etc or said moving to WTO terms would be awesome for the UK economy are going to get absolutely gubbed in a general election.

    It will be their 'We abolished boom and bust' moment.

    If it comes to No Deal, which I doubt, it will be a difficult first few years because of the gross negligence of May and Hammond in failing to prepare for it. May should have gone for an FTA rather than a special relation which the EU were clearly not interested in.
    Without the backstop there could be no future FTA
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 24,049
    kle4 said:

    OGH was one of the few people left who thought May's approach might eventually work. With even he starting to doubt I think that says it all about how dead Brexit really is now.

    But I do object to the refrain of it being parliament taking back control. It's funny, but if it is unprecedented then it is taking control, not taking back control they didn't previously have.Plus no one seems to have secured any control as a result, just further chaos.

    Bit of a non sequitur but despite everything May's party is still on 40% in a lot of opinion polls. Is there any other party in Western Europe which can say the same thing? Maybe the socialists in Portugal, but they're aren't many examples. It perhaps shows how she's still regarded as a moderate by a fairly large percentage of British voters.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 1,082
    Rewatching 'The Darkest Hour' to stave off depression over Brexit.

    "Here's to not buggering it up!"
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 1,082
    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    Spanish politics has become remarkably fragmented recently. Latest opinion poll, with less than 10% between the top 5 parties.

    PSOE 22.4%
    Cs 18.5%
    PP 18.3%
    UP 17.1%
    VOX 12.5%

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Spanish_general_election#Voting_intention_estimates

    It's no different to our politics; just ours is hidden behind the dishonest veil of FPTP.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 37,915
    AndyJS said:

    kle4 said:

    OGH was one of the few people left who thought May's approach might eventually work. With even he starting to doubt I think that says it all about how dead Brexit really is now.

    But I do object to the refrain of it being parliament taking back control. It's funny, but if it is unprecedented then it is taking control, not taking back control they didn't previously have.Plus no one seems to have secured any control as a result, just further chaos.

    Bit of a non sequitur but despite everything May's party is still on 40% in a lot of opinion polls. Is there any other party in Western Europe which can say the same thing? Maybe the socialists in Portugal, but they're aren't many examples. It perhaps shows how she's still regarded as a moderate by a fairly large percentage of British voters.
    She probably is, comparatively. It's not helping her actually govern though, and a failure leads to chaos and very hard choices which will hit that 40%
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 28,379
    ydoethur said:

    Brexit delenda est.

    (And I know that's poor Latin, but I can't be arsed to be perfect all the time)

    A friend of mine earlier today compared MPs to Tiberius Gracchus, vetoing everything out of petulance until they get their way.

    He added drily that perhaps they should reflect on what happened to Gracchus...
    Wasn't he arrested by Commodus in "Gladiator"?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 28,379

    Brexit delenda est.

    (And I know that's poor Latin, but I can't be arsed to be perfect all the time)

    You're Catholic? :lol:
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 24,242
    kle4 said:

    OGH was one of the few people left who thought May's approach might eventually work. With even he starting to doubt I think that says it all about how dead Brexit really is now.

    But I do object to the refrain of it being parliament taking back control. It's funny, but if it is unprecedented then it is taking control, not taking back control they didn't previously have.Plus no one seems to have secured any control as a result, just further chaos.

    Many MP's love giving control to Brussels. Their objection is our government having control.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 981
    edited January 9
    HYUFD said:

    We're headed for No Deal, whether that becomes sustained No Deal is the question.

    If it does, then I'd expect the government to fall.

    All those Brexiteers that promised sunlit uplands etc or said moving to WTO terms would be awesome for the UK economy are going to get absolutely gubbed in a general election.

    It will be their 'We abolished boom and bust' moment.

    If it comes to No Deal, which I doubt, it will be a difficult first few years because of the gross negligence of May and Hammond in failing to prepare for it. May should have gone for an FTA rather than a special relation which the EU were clearly not interested in.
    Without the backstop there could be no future FTA
    So the EU are lying when they say they hope not to use the backstop and it will only be for a short period of time if we do enter it are they ? If they aren’t, how are we ever going to exit the backstop ?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 20,289
    kle4 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Of course while Parliament has spent another day going round and round in circles over mostly arcane nonsense so too has Brexit got another day closer...

    Yes, but the power of those who want to stop Brexit altogether is being marshalled through such arcana every day too. Still not easy, but with an open ally in the Speaker as well, they probably have many tricks yet up their sleeves.
    Yes, it's difficult to believe that the likes of Grieve haven't been working on today's episode for months, with some line of communication to the Chair as to how best to create the most chaos most effectively hold the government to account.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,373
    kle4 said:

    Anazina said:

    ydoethur said:

    Brexit delenda est.

    (And I know that's poor Latin, but I can't be arsed to be perfect all the time)

    A friend of mine earlier today compared MPs to Tiberius Gracchus, vetoing everything out of petulance until they get their way.

    He added drily that perhaps they should reflect on what happened to Gracchus...
    If I get time I'm going to do a history lesson for PBers this Sunday.
    The endless showing off on here over knowledge of ancient history is almost - but not quite - as nauseating as the falsely modest Fen Poly / Cowley Tech schtick.
    Personally I don't know why you let yourself get so annoyed by such things, it's like getting mad at a meme rather than just ignoring it. You have to also be self aware enough to know that complaining about people's personal tics is at least as annoying as any annoying tics.

    Hopefully pointing out people pointing out people's tics is ok though, for my sake.
    It’s all getting too meta for me.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 1,887
    Anazina said:

    ydoethur said:

    Brexit delenda est.

    (And I know that's poor Latin, but I can't be arsed to be perfect all the time)

    A friend of mine earlier today compared MPs to Tiberius Gracchus, vetoing everything out of petulance until they get their way.

    He added drily that perhaps they should reflect on what happened to Gracchus...
    If I get time I'm going to do a history lesson for PBers this Sunday.
    The endless showing off on here over knowledge of ancient history is almost - but not quite - as nauseating as the falsely modest Fen Poly / Cowley Tech schtick.
    I regrettably second this, since it comes from posters I mostly like and respect. But it's like secondary school willy waving.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 22,517

    "Until this afternoon I thought that this TMay’s strategy of wearing the Commons down until there was no real time left would succeed in getting her deal through. Now I am much less convinced...

    Quite where this goes is hard to predict but we could get to situation where a Commons motion calling for a second referendum. Mrs. May could ignore that but I think she would find it very difficult."


    Why?

    On the one hand, she ignores some MPs.

    On the other hand, she claims she's listening to and respecting the result of the first referendum.

    May has no apparent incentive to give in: unless she suddenly and unexpectedly buckles and gives up on the Deal (in which she's invested everything) then we come back again to the key point: are there enough Conservative MPs who are willing to remove their own Prime Minister in a formal vote of no confidence in order to block Brexit? All else is noise.

    May listens to, and does, what the EU tell her. When she goes to Brussels, she is terrified and can’t get out of those quickly enough.

    At home, she listens to yes-men like Lidlington and Barlow who tell her what she wants to here. She ignores everyone else, including the DUP, which is why she is in the position she is.

    She is simply out of her depth as PM and too much of a control freak to trust anyone with decision making capability.
    There is so much projection in your posts ...
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,373

    Rewatching 'The Darkest Hour' to stave off depression over Brexit.

    "Here's to not buggering it up!"


    Be sure to let PBers know your views on the Tube scene.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 24,242
    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Of course while Parliament has spent another day going round and round in circles over mostly arcane nonsense so too has Brexit got another day closer...

    Yes, but the power of those who want to stop Brexit altogether is being marshalled through such arcana every day too. Still not easy, but with an open ally in the Speaker as well, they probably have many tricks yet up their sleeves.
    Yes, it's difficult to believe that the likes of Grieve haven't been working on today's episode for months, with some line of communication to the Chair as to how best to create the most chaos most effectively hold the government to account.
    No one would claim that the Speaker is impartial, but the Tories could have removed him and failed to.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,373
    Quincel said:

    Anazina said:

    ydoethur said:

    Brexit delenda est.

    (And I know that's poor Latin, but I can't be arsed to be perfect all the time)

    A friend of mine earlier today compared MPs to Tiberius Gracchus, vetoing everything out of petulance until they get their way.

    He added drily that perhaps they should reflect on what happened to Gracchus...
    If I get time I'm going to do a history lesson for PBers this Sunday.
    The endless showing off on here over knowledge of ancient history is almost - but not quite - as nauseating as the falsely modest Fen Poly / Cowley Tech schtick.
    I regrettably second this, since it comes from posters I mostly like and respect. But it's like secondary school willy waving.
    Indeed.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 1,082
    @Anazina you can rest assured I will!
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 981

    "Until this afternoon I thought that this TMay’s strategy of wearing the Commons down until there was no real time left would succeed in getting her deal through. Now I am much less convinced...

    Quite where this goes is hard to predict but we could get to situation where a Commons motion calling for a second referendum. Mrs. May could ignore that but I think she would find it very difficult."


    Why?

    On the one hand, she ignores some MPs.

    On the other hand, she claims she's listening to and respecting the result of the first referendum.

    May has no apparent incentive to give in: unless she suddenly and unexpectedly buckles and gives up on the Deal (in which she's invested everything) then we come back again to the key point: are there enough Conservative MPs who are willing to remove their own Prime Minister in a formal vote of no confidence in order to block Brexit? All else is noise.

    May listens to, and does, what the EU tell her. When she goes to Brussels, she is terrified and can’t get out of those quickly enough.

    At home, she listens to yes-men like Lidlington and Barlow who tell her what she wants to here. She ignores everyone else, including the DUP, which is why she is in the position she is.

    She is simply out of her depth as PM and too much of a control freak to trust anyone with decision making capability.
    There is so much projection in your posts ...
    Should be easy to rebut then, except you can’t. All you need is to see how she handles herself and listen to what she says. Not that difficult for most of us.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,373

    @Anazina you can rest assured I will!

    :smiley:
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 22,517

    "Until this afternoon I thought that this TMay’s strategy of wearing the Commons down until there was no real time left would succeed in getting her deal through. Now I am much less convinced...

    Quite where this goes is hard to predict but we could get to situation where a Commons motion calling for a second referendum. Mrs. May could ignore that but I think she would find it very difficult."


    Why?

    On the one hand, she ignores some MPs.

    On the other hand, she claims she's listening to and respecting the result of the first referendum.

    May has no apparent incentive to give in: unless she suddenly and unexpectedly buckles and gives up on the Deal (in which she's invested everything) then we come back again to the key point: are there enough Conservative MPs who are willing to remove their own Prime Minister in a formal vote of no confidence in order to block Brexit? All else is noise.

    May listens to, and does, what the EU tell her. When she goes to Brussels, she is terrified and can’t get out of those quickly enough.

    At home, she listens to yes-men like Lidlington and Barlow who tell her what she wants to here. She ignores everyone else, including the DUP, which is why she is in the position she is.

    She is simply out of her depth as PM and too much of a control freak to trust anyone with decision making capability.
    There is so much projection in your posts ...
    Should be easy to rebut then, except you can’t. All you need is to see how she handles herself and listen to what she says. Not that difficult for most of us.
    I can, but it;s too funny seeing you project your own mindset.

    As it happens, I see something different in May. But then that's because I've not got a fetid ideology rotting my core.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 9,809
    Anazina said:

    Rewatching 'The Darkest Hour' to stave off depression over Brexit.

    "Here's to not buggering it up!"


    Be sure to let PBers know your views on the Tube scene.
    I watched that film for the first time recently. I have to say, I didn't think much of it. I appreciate that it was a momentous time in our history, but I don't think it worked particularly well as a film. And I didn't think Oldman was as good as most people thought.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 15,259

    @Anazina you can rest assured I will!

    It was squeezed in.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 1,060
    HYUFD said:

    If the Commons does force an EU referendum with a Remain option by a majority vote after rejecting her Deal at least May can blame it on them rather than proposing it herself which she will not do

    Isn't that the position of just about every MP at the moment concerning Brexit?
    They want certain things to happen, but don't want to be seen voting for those things to happen?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 15,259

    As it happens, I see something different in May.

    Better weather? That's what I usually see in May.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 9,287

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Brexit delenda est.

    (And I know that's poor Latin, but I can't be arsed to be perfect all the time)

    A friend of mine earlier today compared MPs to Tiberius Gracchus, vetoing everything out of petulance until they get their way.

    He added drily that perhaps they should reflect on what happened to Gracchus...
    Was he the one who was beaten to death?
    Yah, and his brother too for trying the same thing later on.
    Yet both were subsequently worshipped as gods...
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 1,082
    OT, I've been trying to secure some unpaid work experience (day-to-day work of a solicitor, workings of a law firm, etc.) prior to studying a GDL in September as part of an Engineering -> Law career change attempt but not getting much traction from cold emails. Have any illustrious PB members got any advice they could share?
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 981
    edited January 9

    "Until this afternoon I thought that this TMay’s strategy of wearing the Commons down until there was no real time left would succeed in getting her deal through. Now I am much less convinced...

    Quite where this goes is hard to predict but we could get to situation where a Commons motion calling for a second referendum. Mrs. May could ignore that but I think she would find it very difficult."


    Why?

    On the one hand, she ignores some MPs.

    On the other hand, she claims she's listening to and respecting the result of the first referendum.

    May has no apparent incentive to give in: unless she suddenly and unexpectedly buckles and gives up on the Deal (in which she's invested everything) then we come back again to the key point: are there enough Conservative MPs who are willing to remove their own Prime Minister in a formal vote of no confidence in order to block Brexit? All else is noise.

    May listens to, and does, what the EU tell her. When she goes to Brussels, she is terrified and can’t get out of those quickly enough.

    At home, she listens to yes-men like Lidlington and Barlow who tell her what she wants to here. She ignores everyone else, including the DUP, which is why she is in the position she is.

    She is simply out of her depth as PM and too much of a control freak to trust anyone with decision making capability.
    There is so much projection in your posts ...
    Should be easy to rebut then, except you can’t. All you need is to see how she handles herself and listen to what she says. Not that difficult for most of us.
    I can, but it;s too funny seeing you project your own mindset.

    As it happens, I see something different in May. But then that's because I've not got a fetid ideology rotting my core.
    You certainly have. The fact that you are inconsolably bent out shape about the fact that Remain lost the referendum is evident from every comment you make. That is why your default position is always to resort to insults.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 37,915
    tlg86 said:

    Anazina said:

    Rewatching 'The Darkest Hour' to stave off depression over Brexit.

    "Here's to not buggering it up!"


    Be sure to let PBers know your views on the Tube scene.
    I watched that film for the first time recently. I have to say, I didn't think much of it. I appreciate that it was a momentous time in our history, but I don't think it worked particularly well as a film. And I didn't think Oldman was as good as most people thought.
    I thought he was good, but I have seen him be better (he is an Oscar worthy actor). Perhaps I'm unfair, but while it was good his performance in the film put me a bit in mind of Eddie Redmayne, who everything I have seen him in I can always tell he is 'acting!' as opposed to just acting, if that makes any sense at all, always very obviously playing a character rather than convincing me he is that character. Maybe that Oldman was playing a person I am vaguely aware of from archival footage led to that.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 9,287
    ydoethur said:

    As it happens, I see something different in May.

    Better weather? That's what I usually see in May.
    This year April will be the cruellest month.
  • Anazina said:

    ydoethur said:

    Brexit delenda est.

    (And I know that's poor Latin, but I can't be arsed to be perfect all the time)

    A friend of mine earlier today compared MPs to Tiberius Gracchus, vetoing everything out of petulance until they get their way.

    He added drily that perhaps they should reflect on what happened to Gracchus...
    If I get time I'm going to do a history lesson for PBers this Sunday.
    The endless showing off on here over knowledge of ancient history is almost - but not quite - as nauseating as the falsely modest Fen Poly / Cowley Tech schtick.
    If you don't learn from history you're destined to repeat the same mistakes.

    Plus classical history has lots of sex and depravity, what's not to love?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 15,259
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    As it happens, I see something different in May.

    Better weather? That's what I usually see in May.
    This year April will be the cruellest month.
    April is always the coolest month.

    Apart from anything else, Shakespeare. Wordsworth, Gibbon, Harvey, Isambard Brunel, Charlie Chaplin, Adrian Boult and Malcolm Sargent were all born in it, as was the greatest genius, organist, historian, poet and punner the world has ever known.

    We also have to put up with Hitler and Hess, but nobody's perfect.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 15,259

    Anazina said:

    ydoethur said:

    Brexit delenda est.

    (And I know that's poor Latin, but I can't be arsed to be perfect all the time)

    A friend of mine earlier today compared MPs to Tiberius Gracchus, vetoing everything out of petulance until they get their way.

    He added drily that perhaps they should reflect on what happened to Gracchus...
    If I get time I'm going to do a history lesson for PBers this Sunday.
    The endless showing off on here over knowledge of ancient history is almost - but not quite - as nauseating as the falsely modest Fen Poly / Cowley Tech schtick.
    If you don't learn from history you're destined to repeat the same mistakes.

    Plus classical history has lots of sex and depravity, what's not to love?
    Although Bill Clinton deserves an honourable mention in that regard.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 37,915

    Anazina said:

    ydoethur said:

    Brexit delenda est.

    (And I know that's poor Latin, but I can't be arsed to be perfect all the time)

    A friend of mine earlier today compared MPs to Tiberius Gracchus, vetoing everything out of petulance until they get their way.

    He added drily that perhaps they should reflect on what happened to Gracchus...
    If I get time I'm going to do a history lesson for PBers this Sunday.
    The endless showing off on here over knowledge of ancient history is almost - but not quite - as nauseating as the falsely modest Fen Poly / Cowley Tech schtick.
    If you don't learn from history you're destined to repeat the same mistakes.

    Plus classical history has lots of sex and depravity, what's not to love?
    Did someone not once say something like: 'I do not read history; I know that it must be false'?

    But for factional politics tearing apart the very fabric of the nation amid talk of apocalyptic doom, much more relevant to our times, I recommend the Wars of the Three Kingdoms, obviously.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 3,234

    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    Spanish politics has become remarkably fragmented recently. Latest opinion poll, with less than 10% between the top 5 parties.

    PSOE 22.4%
    Cs 18.5%
    PP 18.3%
    UP 17.1%
    VOX 12.5%

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Spanish_general_election#Voting_intention_estimates

    It's no different to our politics; just ours is hidden behind the dishonest veil of FPTP.
    Indeed not much different to our pre 2015 polling. PSOE + UP = Labour 39.5%, Cs +PP= Tories 36.8%, VOX=UKIP 12.5%.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,373

    Anazina said:

    ydoethur said:

    Brexit delenda est.

    (And I know that's poor Latin, but I can't be arsed to be perfect all the time)

    A friend of mine earlier today compared MPs to Tiberius Gracchus, vetoing everything out of petulance until they get their way.

    He added drily that perhaps they should reflect on what happened to Gracchus...
    If I get time I'm going to do a history lesson for PBers this Sunday.
    The endless showing off on here over knowledge of ancient history is almost - but not quite - as nauseating as the falsely modest Fen Poly / Cowley Tech schtick.
    If you don't learn from history you're destined to repeat the same mistakes.

    Plus classical history has lots of sex and depravity, what's not to love?
    I have nothing against the classics, merely the showing off :wink:
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 24,242
    FPT, Brendan, you should take legal advice. No tenant can be evicted without a court order.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 9,287
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    As it happens, I see something different in May.

    Better weather? That's what I usually see in May.
    This year April will be the cruellest month.
    April is always the coolest month.

    Apart from anything else, Shakespeare. Wordsworth, Gibbon, Harvey, Isambard Brunel, Charlie Chaplin, Adrian Boult and Malcolm Sargent were all born in it, as was the greatest genius, organist, historian, poet and punner the world has ever known....
    You’ll have to give us a clue...

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 37,915
    Anazina said:

    Anazina said:

    ydoethur said:

    Brexit delenda est.

    (And I know that's poor Latin, but I can't be arsed to be perfect all the time)

    A friend of mine earlier today compared MPs to Tiberius Gracchus, vetoing everything out of petulance until they get their way.

    He added drily that perhaps they should reflect on what happened to Gracchus...
    If I get time I'm going to do a history lesson for PBers this Sunday.
    The endless showing off on here over knowledge of ancient history is almost - but not quite - as nauseating as the falsely modest Fen Poly / Cowley Tech schtick.
    If you don't learn from history you're destined to repeat the same mistakes.

    Plus classical history has lots of sex and depravity, what's not to love?
    I have nothing against the classics, merely the showing off :wink:
    Look, if I cannot use my patchy knowledge of history to occasionally posture toward anonymous people on the internet I might begin to think my master's degree was a waste of money, and you wouldn't do that to me would you?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 9,809
    kle4 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Anazina said:

    Rewatching 'The Darkest Hour' to stave off depression over Brexit.

    "Here's to not buggering it up!"


    Be sure to let PBers know your views on the Tube scene.
    I watched that film for the first time recently. I have to say, I didn't think much of it. I appreciate that it was a momentous time in our history, but I don't think it worked particularly well as a film. And I didn't think Oldman was as good as most people thought.
    I thought he was good, but I have seen him be better (he is an Oscar worthy actor). Perhaps I'm unfair, but while it was good his performance in the film put me a bit in mind of Eddie Redmayne, who everything I have seen him in I can always tell he is 'acting!' as opposed to just acting, if that makes any sense at all, always very obviously playing a character rather than convincing me he is that character. Maybe that Oldman was playing a person I am vaguely aware of from archival footage led to that.
    Absolutely agree, it's much harder to accept an acting playing someone you have a preconception of how they ought to be. That said, I quite liked John Lithgow as Churchill in The Crown.
  • kle4 said:

    Anazina said:

    Anazina said:

    ydoethur said:

    Brexit delenda est.

    (And I know that's poor Latin, but I can't be arsed to be perfect all the time)

    A friend of mine earlier today compared MPs to Tiberius Gracchus, vetoing everything out of petulance until they get their way.

    He added drily that perhaps they should reflect on what happened to Gracchus...
    If I get time I'm going to do a history lesson for PBers this Sunday.
    The endless showing off on here over knowledge of ancient history is almost - but not quite - as nauseating as the falsely modest Fen Poly / Cowley Tech schtick.
    If you don't learn from history you're destined to repeat the same mistakes.

    Plus classical history has lots of sex and depravity, what's not to love?
    I have nothing against the classics, merely the showing off :wink:
    Look, if I cannot use my patchy knowledge of history to occasionally posture toward anonymous people on the internet I might begin to think my master's degree was a waste of money, and you wouldn't do that to me would you?
    I still think you should write a guest piece for PB comparing Brexit to the English civil war.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 15,259
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    As it happens, I see something different in May.

    Better weather? That's what I usually see in May.
    This year April will be the cruellest month.
    April is always the coolest month.

    Apart from anything else, Shakespeare. Wordsworth, Gibbon, Harvey, Isambard Brunel, Charlie Chaplin, Adrian Boult and Malcolm Sargent were all born in it, as was the greatest genius, organist, historian, poet and punner the world has ever known....
    You’ll have to give us a clue...

    Well, he died in 1658.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 22,517

    You certainly have. The fact that you are inconsolably bent out shape about the fact that Remain lost the referendum is evident from every comment you make. That is why your default position is always to resort to insults.

    If you'd been on PB for longer than five minutes, you might realise that I'm not exactly immune to making criticism of the EU (but also praising it at times as well). In fact, if you read today's threads you'll see I'd criticised the likes of Juncker and the EU earlier on.

    You are someone who claims the likes of Ken Clarke obeys orders from the EU. That's plainly ridiculous.

    I want what is best for the UK. I hope you'd want that as well - if you're from the UK, that is. This country is being hurt in many ways by the mess that we find ourselves in, and if I'm 'inconsolably bent out shape' about anything, it's about how idealogues are willing to see disaster overcome this country just to get their twisted, sick vision.

    Since you've not been on here long, I think we should leave; in fact after the referendum I said we should have an organised no-deal, as there was f'all chance of coming to an agreement internally, yet alone externally. I was right. It's too late for that, so now I'm in favour of May's deal. I've argued against a referendum as it would solve nothing.

    So you're wrong.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 5,968
    The Remainers in Parliament reason that if they're going to be accused of treachery by Leavers for supporting a Deal with the EU rather than no deal then they might as well be accused of treachery for supporting something they want - ie Remain. I can't blame them for that even if I don't think it's wise.

    Leavers overreached. It's probably not too late for them to save Theresa's deal, even without the DUP, because Labour under Corbyn are a piss-poor opposition when it comes to Parliamentary votes, but they would have to backtrack faster than a boomerang.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 37,915
    edited January 9

    Labour under Corbyn are a piss-poor opposition when it comes to Parliamentary votes

    Not on Brexit votes they aren't, not in the last 6 months.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 15,259
    kle4 said:

    Labour under Corbyn are a piss-poor opposition when it comes to Parliamentary votes

    Not on Brexit votes they aren't, not in the last 6 months.
    In fairness, they're still rubbish, it's just that by coincidence they've been on the same side as a much better organised backbench campaign.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 37,915

    kle4 said:

    Anazina said:

    Anazina said:

    ydoethur said:

    Brexit delenda est.

    (And I know that's poor Latin, but I can't be arsed to be perfect all the time)

    A friend of mine earlier today compared MPs to Tiberius Gracchus, vetoing everything out of petulance until they get their way.

    He added drily that perhaps they should reflect on what happened to Gracchus...
    If I get time I'm going to do a history lesson for PBers this Sunday.
    The endless showing off on here over knowledge of ancient history is almost - but not quite - as nauseating as the falsely modest Fen Poly / Cowley Tech schtick.
    If you don't learn from history you're destined to repeat the same mistakes.

    Plus classical history has lots of sex and depravity, what's not to love?
    I have nothing against the classics, merely the showing off :wink:
    Look, if I cannot use my patchy knowledge of history to occasionally posture toward anonymous people on the internet I might begin to think my master's degree was a waste of money, and you wouldn't do that to me would you?
    I still think you should write a guest piece for PB comparing Brexit to the English civil war.
    Would that I could, but very flattering nonetheless.
  • What really makes me laugh is that a central plank of the referendum campaign was throwing off the shackles of the EU making our laws, taking back control so that the British parliament would once again be sovereign.

    Which is why now that parliament is flexing its sovereignty there are so many "take back control" believers Really Very Angry that parliament has taken back control.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 981

    You certainly have. The fact that you are inconsolably bent out shape about the fact that Remain lost the referendum is evident from every comment you make. That is why your default position is always to resort to insults.

    If you'd been on PB for longer than five minutes, you might realise that I'm not exactly immune to making criticism of the EU (but also praising it at times as well). In fact, if you read today's threads you'll see I'd criticised the likes of Juncker and the EU earlier on.

    You are someone who claims the likes of Ken Clarke obeys orders from the EU. That's plainly ridiculous.

    I want what is best for the UK. I hope you'd want that as well - if you're from the UK, that is. This country is being hurt in many ways by the mess that we find ourselves in, and if I'm 'inconsolably bent out shape' about anything, it's about how idealogues are willing to see disaster overcome this country just to get their twisted, sick vision.

    Since you've not been on here long, I think we should leave; in fact after the referendum I said we should have an organised no-deal, as there was f'all chance of coming to an agreement internally, yet alone externally. I was right. It's too late for that, so now I'm in favour of May's deal. I've argued against a referendum as it would solve nothing.

    So you're wrong.
    So you say about Clarke, but as on the last thread, you can’t point to any instance of him voting against the implementation of any EU directive.

    I am really not interested in your self publicity. I simply treat your comments on their individual (lack of) merit. What is the best interests of the U.K. is a highly subjective matter because it involves what you profess yourself to abhor - projection.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 11,855
    I just don't see May pivoting to anything other than Brexit - on a no deal basis if all else fails.

    Imagine: for two and a half years all she has done is Brexit. Her government has achieved nothing else. It will be remembered for nothing else. She has gone to endless meetings and read zillions of bits of paper. She has made lots of speeches in and out of Parliament.

    Imagine if at the end of all that she cannot get Brexit through. Two and a half years utterly wasted with absolutely nothing to show for it. What humiliation for her. Her sole legacy will then have been failing to implement Brexit and losing a majority. How could she bear it?

    I just think psychologically she would find it impossible to change course. The only possible way is if there is a Parliamentary vote which forces her to do something else so that she can say that she is implementing the will of Parliament. There is a small chance of that.

    But otherwise it will be immensely hard for her I suspect. And she is so stubborn and seemingly lacking in mental or psychological flexibility or the ability to make a U-turn look like her own decision that I just cannot see how she will do it.

    I hope I am wrong, though.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 37,915
    Cyclefree said:

    I just don't see May pivoting to anything other than Brexit - on a no deal basis if all else fails.

    Imagine: for two and a half years all she has done is Brexit. Her government has achieved nothing else. It will be remembered for nothing else. She has gone to endless meetings and read zillions of bits of paper. She has made lots of speeches in and out of Parliament.

    Imagine if at the end of all that she cannot get Brexit through. Two and a half years utterly wasted with absolutely nothing to show for it. What humiliation for her. Her sole legacy will then have been failing to implement Brexit and losing a majority. How could she bear it?

    I just think psychologically she would find it impossible to change course. The only possible way is if there is a Parliamentary vote which forces her to do something else so that she can say that she is implementing the will of Parliament. There is a small chance of that.

    But otherwise it will be immensely hard for her I suspect. And she is so stubborn and seemingly lacking in mental or psychological flexibility or the ability to make a U-turn look like her own decision that I just cannot see how she will do it.

    I hope I am wrong, though.

    I can see that, but there's a non zero chance some Tories will do what their logic suggests they must and bring down her government if she goes for no deal, so it feels more like a question of if she pivots to a referendum do the no dealers bring her down over that instead.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 5,968
    kle4 said:

    Anazina said:

    ydoethur said:

    Brexit delenda est.

    (And I know that's poor Latin, but I can't be arsed to be perfect all the time)

    A friend of mine earlier today compared MPs to Tiberius Gracchus, vetoing everything out of petulance until they get their way.

    He added drily that perhaps they should reflect on what happened to Gracchus...
    If I get time I'm going to do a history lesson for PBers this Sunday.
    The endless showing off on here over knowledge of ancient history is almost - but not quite - as nauseating as the falsely modest Fen Poly / Cowley Tech schtick.
    Personally I don't know why you let yourself get so annoyed by such things, it's like getting mad at a meme rather than just ignoring it. You have to also be self aware enough to know that complaining about people's personal tics is at least as annoying as any annoying tics.

    Hopefully pointing out people pointing out people's tics is ok though, for my sake.
    Someone has to do it - know that you do so on behalf of others
    Anazina said:

    ydoethur said:

    Brexit delenda est.

    (And I know that's poor Latin, but I can't be arsed to be perfect all the time)

    A friend of mine earlier today compared MPs to Tiberius Gracchus, vetoing everything out of petulance until they get their way.

    He added drily that perhaps they should reflect on what happened to Gracchus...
    If I get time I'm going to do a history lesson for PBers this Sunday.
    The endless showing off on here over knowledge of ancient history is almost - but not quite - as nauseating as the falsely modest Fen Poly / Cowley Tech schtick.
    Sofie Hagen is working on a new show that had a section taking the mick out of Oxbridge graduates that you might appreciate.

    Personally I like the references to history.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 26,258
    kle4 said:

    OGH was one of the few people left who thought May's approach might eventually work. With even he starting to doubt I think that says it all about how dead Brexit really is now.

    But I do object to the refrain of it being parliament taking back control. It's funny, but if it is unprecedented then it is taking control, not taking back control they didn't previously have.Plus no one seems to have secured any control as a result, just further chaos.

    It seems to be a source of great amusement to Remainers when Remain MPs in Parliament use parliamentary procedure and the votes that come with a hung Parliament to frustrate Brexit.

    But, again it's just trolling.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 16,469
    FPT

    Currently their (Russia's) actions are more hostile. That does not mean the EU 27 are not hostile. They are basically the same as much of the rest of the world currently. On a par with the US. The way in which certain EU countries are taking advantage of Brexit to try and improve their own economies and damage ours is a hostile act. I certainly don't condemn it as I would hope and assume we would do the same if the shoe were on the other foot. Again, the guiding principle is that a government should always act in what it considers to be the best interests of its citizens.

    "The way in which certain EU countries are taking advantage of Brexit to try and improve their own economies and damage ours is a hostile act."

    Using that sort of thinking, from their perspective Brexit could be seen as a hostile act designed to damage their economies.

    And thanks to many Brexiteers saying they wanted not only to leave the EU, but to see it destroyed, who could blame them?

    I'd much rather be friendly than see hostility everywhere.
    Indeed, from their perspective Brexit is a hostile act. But it is in the best interests of our country and therefore is the right thing to do. Again I would expect no less from any other country. The alternative is that one expects the Government to act in a way that is not in the best interests of the citizens.
    But things do not have to be a zero-sum game. Deals can be done that advantage all parties - and frequently are.

    Your hatred of the EU would see us often doing what is wrong for us as a country, just because it is also good for them.
    Simple garbage from you there JJ. I do not hate the EU. It is daft to 'hate' something that is simply a political construct. What you do is oppose it and then, if possible, leave it. I want us to leave the EU because it is good for us and, incidentally, good for them as well. EU membership has been and will continue to be very bad for the UK and leaving will help to heal the wounds we have inflicted on ourselves through our foolish adherence to it.

    It will also allow the EU to develop as they wish without our obstructionism. I have often said on here how much I admire the founders of the EU - in particular Jean Monnet. I think he was wrong on many things but he was an admirable man with a dream. It is just one I do not share.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 5,968
    kle4 said:

    Labour under Corbyn are a piss-poor opposition when it comes to Parliamentary votes

    Not on Brexit votes they aren't, not in the last 6 months.
    Sure they are. They lost a vote last autumn when Corbyn was off somewhere at a meeting and the DUP voted against the government. The votes are only being won now because the Tory Remain rebel contingent has grown so much.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 10,257
    They thought it was all over....it is now!
  • Cyclefree said:

    I just don't see May pivoting to anything other than Brexit - on a no deal basis if all else fails.

    Imagine: for two and a half years all she has done is Brexit. Her government has achieved nothing else. It will be remembered for nothing else. She has gone to endless meetings and read zillions of bits of paper. She has made lots of speeches in and out of Parliament.

    Imagine if at the end of all that she cannot get Brexit through. Two and a half years utterly wasted with absolutely nothing to show for it. What humiliation for her. Her sole legacy will then have been failing to implement Brexit and losing a majority. How could she bear it?

    I just think psychologically she would find it impossible to change course. The only possible way is if there is a Parliamentary vote which forces her to do something else so that she can say that she is implementing the will of Parliament. There is a small chance of that.

    But otherwise it will be immensely hard for her I suspect. And she is so stubborn and seemingly lacking in mental or psychological flexibility or the ability to make a U-turn look like her own decision that I just cannot see how she will do it.

    I hope I am wrong, though.

    I think Mrs May is stuck in a loop.

    She wants to

    1) Honour the referendum result and Leave the EU

    2) Avoid No Deal, she doesn't want lack of meds and foods that will ruin the lives of so many.

    Now she's not sure what should take priority, 1 or 2?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 24,242
    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I just don't see May pivoting to anything other than Brexit - on a no deal basis if all else fails.

    Imagine: for two and a half years all she has done is Brexit. Her government has achieved nothing else. It will be remembered for nothing else. She has gone to endless meetings and read zillions of bits of paper. She has made lots of speeches in and out of Parliament.

    Imagine if at the end of all that she cannot get Brexit through. Two and a half years utterly wasted with absolutely nothing to show for it. What humiliation for her. Her sole legacy will then have been failing to implement Brexit and losing a majority. How could she bear it?

    I just think psychologically she would find it impossible to change course. The only possible way is if there is a Parliamentary vote which forces her to do something else so that she can say that she is implementing the will of Parliament. There is a small chance of that.

    But otherwise it will be immensely hard for her I suspect. And she is so stubborn and seemingly lacking in mental or psychological flexibility or the ability to make a U-turn look like her own decision that I just cannot see how she will do it.

    I hope I am wrong, though.

    I can see that, but there's a non zero chance some Tories will do what their logic suggests they must and bring down her government if she goes for no deal, so it feels more like a question of if she pivots to a referendum do the no dealers bring her down over that instead.
    In the end, Leave and Remain Conservatives have that choice to make. Is their hatred/love for the EU so great that they're willing to put Corbyn into office.
  • TomsToms Posts: 1,652
    Relevant here and to the previous thread:
    Layla Moran (no relation to Colonel Moran I assume!) looks terrific from here.
    AND she's numerate (NUMERATE!) and a remainer.
    On the face of it I'd say:
    "LibDems, go with her."
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 277

    kle4 said:

    Anazina said:

    ydoethur said:

    Brexit delenda est.

    (And I know that's poor Latin, but I can't be arsed to be perfect all the time)

    A friend of mine earlier today compared MPs to Tiberius Gracchus, vetoing everything out of petulance until they get their way.

    He added drily that perhaps they should reflect on what happened to Gracchus...
    If I get time I'm going to do a history lesson for PBers this Sunday.
    The endless showing off on here over knowledge of ancient history is almost - but not quite - as nauseating as the falsely modest Fen Poly / Cowley Tech schtick.
    Personally I don't know why you let yourself get so annoyed by such things, it's like getting mad at a meme rather than just ignoring it. You have to also be self aware enough to know that complaining about people's personal tics is at least as annoying as any annoying tics.

    Hopefully pointing out people pointing out people's tics is ok though, for my sake.
    Someone has to do it - know that you do so on behalf of others
    Anazina said:

    ydoethur said:

    Brexit delenda est.

    (And I know that's poor Latin, but I can't be arsed to be perfect all the time)

    A friend of mine earlier today compared MPs to Tiberius Gracchus, vetoing everything out of petulance until they get their way.

    He added drily that perhaps they should reflect on what happened to Gracchus...
    If I get time I'm going to do a history lesson for PBers this Sunday.
    The endless showing off on here over knowledge of ancient history is almost - but not quite - as nauseating as the falsely modest Fen Poly / Cowley Tech schtick.
    Sofie Hagen is working on a new show that had a section taking the mick out of Oxbridge graduates that you might appreciate.

    Personally I like the references to history.
    Would this be a bad time to point out that in the best classical usage obliviscor takes a genitive, rather than an accusative?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 37,915
    Cyclefree said:
    It's been apparent for awhile.
    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I just don't see May pivoting to anything other than Brexit - on a no deal basis if all else fails.

    Imagine: for two and a half years all she has done is Brexit. Her government has achieved nothing else. It will be remembered for nothing else. She has gone to endless meetings and read zillions of bits of paper. She has made lots of speeches in and out of Parliament.

    Imagine if at the end of all that she cannot get Brexit through. Two and a half years utterly wasted with absolutely nothing to show for it. What humiliation for her. Her sole legacy will then have been failing to implement Brexit and losing a majority. How could she bear it?

    I just think psychologically she would find it impossible to change course. The only possible way is if there is a Parliamentary vote which forces her to do something else so that she can say that she is implementing the will of Parliament. There is a small chance of that.

    But otherwise it will be immensely hard for her I suspect. And she is so stubborn and seemingly lacking in mental or psychological flexibility or the ability to make a U-turn look like her own decision that I just cannot see how she will do it.

    I hope I am wrong, though.

    I can see that, but there's a non zero chance some Tories will do what their logic suggests they must and bring down her government if she goes for no deal, so it feels more like a question of if she pivots to a referendum do the no dealers bring her down over that instead.
    In the end, Leave and Remain Conservatives have that choice to make. Is their hatred/love for the EU so great that they're willing to put Corbyn into office.
    If leaving the EU is an epochal disaster, then the answer should be Yes for the remainers at least.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 15,259
    blueblue said:

    kle4 said:

    Anazina said:

    ydoethur said:

    Brexit delenda est.

    (And I know that's poor Latin, but I can't be arsed to be perfect all the time)

    A friend of mine earlier today compared MPs to Tiberius Gracchus, vetoing everything out of petulance until they get their way.

    He added drily that perhaps they should reflect on what happened to Gracchus...
    If I get time I'm going to do a history lesson for PBers this Sunday.
    The endless showing off on here over knowledge of ancient history is almost - but not quite - as nauseating as the falsely modest Fen Poly / Cowley Tech schtick.
    Personally I don't know why you let yourself get so annoyed by such things, it's like getting mad at a meme rather than just ignoring it. You have to also be self aware enough to know that complaining about people's personal tics is at least as annoying as any annoying tics.

    Hopefully pointing out people pointing out people's tics is ok though, for my sake.
    Someone has to do it - know that you do so on behalf of others
    Anazina said:

    ydoethur said:

    Brexit delenda est.

    (And I know that's poor Latin, but I can't be arsed to be perfect all the time)

    A friend of mine earlier today compared MPs to Tiberius Gracchus, vetoing everything out of petulance until they get their way.

    He added drily that perhaps they should reflect on what happened to Gracchus...
    If I get time I'm going to do a history lesson for PBers this Sunday.
    The endless showing off on here over knowledge of ancient history is almost - but not quite - as nauseating as the falsely modest Fen Poly / Cowley Tech schtick.
    Sofie Hagen is working on a new show that had a section taking the mick out of Oxbridge graduates that you might appreciate.

    Personally I like the references to history.
    Would this be a bad time to point out that in the best classical usage obliviscor takes a genitive, rather than an accusative?
    Evening, Mr Cleese.
  • chloechloe Posts: 247
    Maybe this will drive the Brexiteers to vote for the deal next week, on the basis that it is the only way to achieve Brexit. Otherwise there is probably a majority for a new referendum which they don’t want and which would be difficult for May to ignore if such a vote was passed.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 20,289
    edited January 9
    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I just don't see May pivoting to anything other than Brexit - on a no deal basis if all else fails.

    Imagine: for two and a half years all she has done is Brexit. Her government has achieved nothing else. It will be remembered for nothing else. She has gone to endless meetings and read zillions of bits of paper. She has made lots of speeches in and out of Parliament.

    Imagine if at the end of all that she cannot get Brexit through. Two and a half years utterly wasted with absolutely nothing to show for it. What humiliation for her. Her sole legacy will then have been failing to implement Brexit and losing a majority. How could she bear it?

    I just think psychologically she would find it impossible to change course. The only possible way is if there is a Parliamentary vote which forces her to do something else so that she can say that she is implementing the will of Parliament. There is a small chance of that.

    But otherwise it will be immensely hard for her I suspect. And she is so stubborn and seemingly lacking in mental or psychological flexibility or the ability to make a U-turn look like her own decision that I just cannot see how she will do it.

    I hope I am wrong, though.

    I can see that, but there's a non zero chance some Tories will do what their logic suggests they must and bring down her government if she goes for no deal, so it feels more like a question of if she pivots to a referendum do the no dealers bring her down over that instead.
    In the end, Leave and Remain Conservatives have that choice to make. Is their hatred/love for the EU so great that they're willing to put Corbyn into office.
    Indeed. Especially given that anyone crossing the floor most likely commits career suicide to do so.

    As many of us said on here at the time, the FTPA could well make passing anything at all impossible - except for a vote of confidence in the government.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 2,425
    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I just don't see May pivoting to anything other than Brexit - on a no deal basis if all else fails.

    Imagine: for two and a half years all she has done is Brexit. Her government has achieved nothing else. It will be remembered for nothing else. She has gone to endless meetings and read zillions of bits of paper. She has made lots of speeches in and out of Parliament.

    Imagine if at the end of all that she cannot get Brexit through. Two and a half years utterly wasted with absolutely nothing to show for it. What humiliation for her. Her sole legacy will then have been failing to implement Brexit and losing a majority. How could she bear it?

    I just think psychologically she would find it impossible to change course. The only possible way is if there is a Parliamentary vote which forces her to do something else so that she can say that she is implementing the will of Parliament. There is a small chance of that.

    But otherwise it will be immensely hard for her I suspect. And she is so stubborn and seemingly lacking in mental or psychological flexibility or the ability to make a U-turn look like her own decision that I just cannot see how she will do it.

    I hope I am wrong, though.

    I can see that, but there's a non zero chance some Tories will do what their logic suggests they must and bring down her government if she goes for no deal, so it feels more like a question of if she pivots to a referendum do the no dealers bring her down over that instead.
    Only that argument, in and of itself, mediates against May pivoting to a second referendum. The Hard Brexiteers are much greater in number than the Hard Remainers within the Conservative Party, and also have much more sympathy amongst both the party membership and Tory voters at large.

    The Conservatives are the Party of Leave now, and have been for some time - even though some of their MPs either haven't yet realised this, or are doing a very good job of pretending that they haven't. And, just so long as the Tories don't shift significantly further in a social conservative direction to try to improve their position in the Midlands and North, the necessary political space for a wet centre-right Christian Democrat offering won't open up in more affluent areas.

    In short, the Conservative Party can't afford to lose either of its wings, but it would be in a much better position to survive the loss of the arch-Europhiles than the Brexiteers. Why risk the latter by appealing to the former?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 11,855
    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I just don't see May pivoting to anything other than Brexit - on a no deal basis if all else fails.

    Imagine: for two and a half years all she has done is Brexit. Her government has achieved nothing else. It will be remembered for nothing else. She has gone to endless meetings and read zillions of bits of paper. She has made lots of speeches in and out of Parliament.

    Imagine if at the end of all that she cannot get Brexit through. Two and a half years utterly wasted with absolutely nothing to show for it. What humiliation for her. Her sole legacy will then have been failing to implement Brexit and losing a majority. How could she bear it?

    I just think psychologically she would find it impossible to change course. The only possible way is if there is a Parliamentary vote which forces her to do something else so that she can say that she is implementing the will of Parliament. There is a small chance of that.

    But otherwise it will be immensely hard for her I suspect. And she is so stubborn and seemingly lacking in mental or psychological flexibility or the ability to make a U-turn look like her own decision that I just cannot see how she will do it.

    I hope I am wrong, though.

    I can see that, but there's a non zero chance some Tories will do what their logic suggests they must and bring down her government if she goes for no deal, so it feels more like a question of if she pivots to a referendum do the no dealers bring her down over that instead.
    In the end, Leave and Remain Conservatives have that choice to make. Is their hatred/love for the EU so great that they're willing to put Corbyn into office.
    The obvious thing for her to do is to revoke Article 50 - on the basis that Parliament has been unable to come to a settled view on Brexit - then resign and let someone else take the matter forward. That new leader can go for a GE or a new referendum or, novel idea this, take the time to work out how to Brexit in a sensible way and then, if they really want to, put this to the voters at a GE. The least harmful thing to do at the moment is to preserve the status quo.

    I don't think a PM who has already said she won't fight the next GE and who has failed to pass their most important piece of legislation should, in all honour, take Britain out on a no deal basis. Brexit is for life - or a bloody long time - not just for Xmas. It should only be done by a PM who is in command of Parliament, which May isn't.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 7,887
    Anazina said:

    ydoethur said:

    Brexit delenda est.

    (And I know that's poor Latin, but I can't be arsed to be perfect all the time)

    A friend of mine earlier today compared MPs to Tiberius Gracchus, vetoing everything out of petulance until they get their way.

    He added drily that perhaps they should reflect on what happened to Gracchus...
    If I get time I'm going to do a history lesson for PBers this Sunday.
    The endless showing off on here over knowledge of ancient history is almost - but not quite - as nauseating as the falsely modest Fen Poly / Cowley Tech schtick.
    Just so. Asinus asinum fricat - one donkey jerks off another - as we Latin scholars might put it.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 981
    edited January 9
    chloe said:

    Maybe this will drive the Brexiteers to vote for the deal next week, on the basis that it is the only way to achieve Brexit. Otherwise there is probably a majority for a new referendum which they don’t want and which would be difficult for May to ignore if such a vote was passed.

    That would be the worst possible outcome - voting for a deal which ignores trade, makes us a rule taker, and has no way out of the backstop. Even as a Leaver, I would prefer no Brexit or a second referendum to May’s deal.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 26,258
    I think I've got a new job for David Cameron: playing Captain Hastings in future TV adaptions of Poirot.

    He looks almost identical to the actor in the original ITV adaptions of the 90s anyway.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 11,855
    One wonders what on earth the EU member states must be making of it all.

  • Cyclefree said:

    One wonders what on earth the EU member states must be making of it all.

    Curiosity, sadness, amusement, fear, and laughter.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 5,968
    blueblue said:

    kle4 said:

    Anazina said:

    ydoethur said:

    Brexit delenda est.

    (And I know that's poor Latin, but I can't be arsed to be perfect all the time)

    A friend of mine earlier today compared MPs to Tiberius Gracchus, vetoing everything out of petulance until they get their way.

    He added drily that perhaps they should reflect on what happened to Gracchus...
    If I get time I'm going to do a history lesson for PBers this Sunday.
    The endless showing off on here over knowledge of ancient history is almost - but not quite - as nauseating as the falsely modest Fen Poly / Cowley Tech schtick.
    Personally I don't know why you let yourself get so annoyed by such things, it's like getting mad at a meme rather than just ignoring it. You have to also be self aware enough to know that complaining about people's personal tics is at least as annoying as any annoying tics.

    Hopefully pointing out people pointing out people's tics is ok though, for my sake.
    Someone has to do it - know that you do so on behalf of others
    Anazina said:

    ydoethur said:

    Brexit delenda est.

    (And I know that's poor Latin, but I can't be arsed to be perfect all the time)

    A friend of mine earlier today compared MPs to Tiberius Gracchus, vetoing everything out of petulance until they get their way.

    He added drily that perhaps they should reflect on what happened to Gracchus...
    If I get time I'm going to do a history lesson for PBers this Sunday.
    The endless showing off on here over knowledge of ancient history is almost - but not quite - as nauseating as the falsely modest Fen Poly / Cowley Tech schtick.
    Sofie Hagen is working on a new show that had a section taking the mick out of Oxbridge graduates that you might appreciate.

    Personally I like the references to history.
    Would this be a bad time to point out that in the best classical usage obliviscor takes a genitive, rather than an accusative?
    Unfortunately my knowledge of Latin extends not one micron beyond http://translate.google.com and so the time is uniformly good and bad for such an observation.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 23,704

    kle4 said:

    Anazina said:

    ydoethur said:

    Brexit delenda est.

    (And I know that's poor Latin, but I can't be arsed to be perfect all the time)

    A friend of mine earlier today compared MPs to Tiberius Gracchus, vetoing everything out of petulance until they get their way.

    He added drily that perhaps they should reflect on what happened to Gracchus...
    If I get time I'm going to do a history lesson for PBers this Sunday.
    The endless showing off on here over knowledge of ancient history is almost - but not quite - as nauseating as the falsely modest Fen Poly / Cowley Tech schtick.
    Personally I don't know why you let yourself get so annoyed by such things, it's like getting mad at a meme rather than just ignoring it. You have to also be self aware enough to know that complaining about people's personal tics is at least as annoying as any annoying tics.

    Hopefully pointing out people pointing out people's tics is ok though, for my sake.
    Someone has to do it - know that you do so on behalf of others
    Anazina said:

    ydoethur said:

    Brexit delenda est.

    (And I know that's poor Latin, but I can't be arsed to be perfect all the time)

    A friend of mine earlier today compared MPs to Tiberius Gracchus, vetoing everything out of petulance until they get their way.

    He added drily that perhaps they should reflect on what happened to Gracchus...
    If I get time I'm going to do a history lesson for PBers this Sunday.
    The endless showing off on here over knowledge of ancient history is almost - but not quite - as nauseating as the falsely modest Fen Poly / Cowley Tech schtick.
    Sofie Hagen is working on a new show that had a section taking the mick out of Oxbridge graduates that you might appreciate.

    Personally I like the references to history.
    Ditto. It can be quite educational.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 9,809
    Do the opinion pollsters ever do ratings on the speaker of the house? Could be interesting to see what the people think of Bercow after today.
This discussion has been closed.