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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the Betfair exchange its now a 69% chance the the UK WON’T

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited January 10 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the Betfair exchange its now a 69% chance the the UK WON’T exit the EU at the end of March

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Comments

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 25,690
    This is being overplayed. Its almost tempting
  • 69.

    Fnarr, fnarr.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 52,473
    The funniest part about the Mann amendment is that it would commit Corbyn to follow existing state aid rules xD
  • RobDRobD Posts: 37,527
    When's the big vote again?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 34,434
    RobD said:

    When's the big vote again?

    Tuesday
  • Pulpstar said:

    The funniest part about the Mann amendment is that it would commit Corbyn to follow existing state aid rules xD

    Fantastic. I'd vote for that amendment.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 8,603
    edited January 10
    DavidL said:

    This is being overplayed. Its almost tempting

    Au contraire, I suspect the only chance of there being no delay is if May's deal goes through first time. I can't really see that being anything close to a 31% probability.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,185
    Nice.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 34,434
    The French really are in the premier league when it comes to protesting....

    Members of the "yellow vests" protest movement have vandalised almost 60% of France's entire speed camera network, the interior minister has said.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 25,690
    Pulpstar said:

    The funniest part about the Mann amendment is that it would commit Corbyn to follow existing state aid rules xD

    Yes but it would also rip the heart out of the faintly ridiculous speech that he made today. I think that the only thing that would be left would be a permanent customs union. AIUI the EU are not particularly minded to give us that even if we ask nicely, certainly not without some money in the pot.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 14,854
    At this rate the Betfair exchange graph will be looking like it did on 23rd/24th June 2016 on 29th/30th March. :D
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 22,172
    Ooh, that's starting to get tempting past 2/1 that we leave on time.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,644
    RobD said:

    When's the big vote again?

    Depends on when they set the new referendum day. No other vote is very big.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 3,526
    Pulpstar said:

    The funniest part about the Mann amendment is that it would commit Corbyn to follow existing state aid rules xD

    He won't give a fuck. He'll break the rules and borrow more money to pay the fines.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 22,172
    GIN1138 said:

    At this rate the Betfair exchange graph will be looking like it did on 23rd/24th June 2016 on 29th/30th March. :D

    This one?
    image
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 25,690
    Sandpit said:

    Ooh, that's starting to get tempting past 2/1 that we leave on time.

    Yes, that's exactly what I said. It's odds against now but those are pretty generous odds given Parliament will have to jump through several hoops to get there and seems to have tied the shoe laces of its clown shoes together for a laugh.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 14,854
    Sandpit said:

    GIN1138 said:

    At this rate the Betfair exchange graph will be looking like it did on 23rd/24th June 2016 on 29th/30th March. :D

    This one?
    image
    What a night! :D

    #NeverForget
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,644
    edited January 10
    GIN1138 said:

    Sandpit said:

    GIN1138 said:

    At this rate the Betfair exchange graph will be looking like it did on 23rd/24th June 2016 on 29th/30th March. :D

    This one?
    image
    What a night! :D

    #NeverForget
    Memories is all we will have from it as we are getting no outcome
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 34,434
    edited January 10
    GIN1138 said:

    Sandpit said:

    GIN1138 said:

    At this rate the Betfair exchange graph will be looking like it did on 23rd/24th June 2016 on 29th/30th March. :D

    This one?
    image
    What a night! :D

    #NeverForget
    What a Christmas that paid for..unlike this year, where the failure of the US Ryder Cup team meant we were more like Tiny Tim's family*.

    * Only joking, the idiot fans of Conor McGregor contributed handsomely to the old Christmas kitty.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 14,854
    kle4 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Sandpit said:

    GIN1138 said:

    At this rate the Betfair exchange graph will be looking like it did on 23rd/24th June 2016 on 29th/30th March. :D

    This one?
    image
    What a night! :D

    #NeverForget
    Memories is all we will have from it as we are getting no outcome
    Lets wait and see about that...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 22,172
    edited January 10

    GIN1138 said:

    Sandpit said:

    GIN1138 said:

    At this rate the Betfair exchange graph will be looking like it did on 23rd/24th June 2016 on 29th/30th March. :D

    This one?
    image
    What a night! :D

    #NeverForget
    What a Christmas that paid for..unlike this year, where the failure of the US Ryder Cup team meant we were more like Tiny Tim's family.
    Not a good bet on Americans being anything but crap away from home.

    FPT, I like your thinking on cricket, an Ashes tour is definitely on the bucket list but need to finish the F1 season first. Baku and hopefully Hungary for this year.
  • Sandpit said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Sandpit said:

    GIN1138 said:

    At this rate the Betfair exchange graph will be looking like it did on 23rd/24th June 2016 on 29th/30th March. :D

    This one?
    image
    What a night! :D

    #NeverForget
    What a Christmas that paid for..unlike this year, where the failure of the US Ryder Cup team meant we were more like Tiny Tim's family.
    Not a good bet on Americans being anything but crap away from home.

    FPT, I like your thinking on cricket, an Ashes tour is definitely on the bucket list but need to finish the F1 season first. Baku and hopefully Hungary for this year.
    Only ever go on an Ashes tour where we're not likely to get gubbed 5 nil.

    2006/07 and Adelaide in particular is forever seared on my memory.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 34,434
    edited January 10
    Sandpit said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Sandpit said:

    GIN1138 said:

    At this rate the Betfair exchange graph will be looking like it did on 23rd/24th June 2016 on 29th/30th March. :D

    This one?
    image
    What a night! :D

    #NeverForget
    What a Christmas that paid for..unlike this year, where the failure of the US Ryder Cup team meant we were more like Tiny Tim's family.
    Not a good bet on Americans being anything but crap away from home.

    FPT, I like your thinking on cricket, an Ashes tour is definitely on the bucket list but need to finish the F1 season first. Baku and hopefully Hungary for this year.
    Well I know that now :-)

    At the time, I just couldn't see how the European's could win, the teams were so lopsided in terms of talent and the French course was very American in style.

    But the American's to a man decided to play like your local 28 handicap hacker on a Sunday morning combined with crazy team strategy (e.g. playing Tiger Woods every match), while some of the Europeans played better golf than they have ever (and will ever) play.

    I mean Poulter has hardly made a cut for 2 years and then it turns up and never loses.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 22,172

    Sandpit said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Sandpit said:

    GIN1138 said:

    At this rate the Betfair exchange graph will be looking like it did on 23rd/24th June 2016 on 29th/30th March. :D

    This one?
    image
    What a night! :D

    #NeverForget
    What a Christmas that paid for..unlike this year, where the failure of the US Ryder Cup team meant we were more like Tiny Tim's family.
    Not a good bet on Americans being anything but crap away from home.

    FPT, I like your thinking on cricket, an Ashes tour is definitely on the bucket list but need to finish the F1 season first. Baku and hopefully Hungary for this year.
    Only ever go on an Ashes tour where we're not likely to get gubbed 5 nil.

    2006/07 and Adelaide in particular is forever seared on my memory.
    Ah, good point! That was a truly horrible tour, made even worse by the massive expectations on the team following the historic 2005 win.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 11,207
    FPT did someone say KLOBUCHAR? The case for her is:

    * Good at getting Republicans to vote for her - see https://edition-m.cnn.com/2019/01/02/politics/democrats-2020-electability-elizabeth-warren-amy-klobuchar-sherrod-brown/index.html
    * Strong legislative record, has a good versiom of the "getting things done across the aisle" story that all successful presidential candidates before Trump told (and even Trump did "art of the deal")
    * Appeals to mid-western states that Trump took off the Dems, and also promising for Iowa
    * Good performance against Kavanaugh, unlike Harris who set him up for a big reveal then didn't reveal anything
    * Nice combination of no-bullshit, down-to-earth and just enough emotion. This is a tightrope for women candidates, especially on the left: They're not supposed to be "strident", but they're also not allowed to be weak. See:
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 22,172

    Sandpit said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Sandpit said:

    GIN1138 said:

    At this rate the Betfair exchange graph will be looking like it did on 23rd/24th June 2016 on 29th/30th March. :D

    This one?
    image
    What a night! :D

    #NeverForget
    What a Christmas that paid for..unlike this year, where the failure of the US Ryder Cup team meant we were more like Tiny Tim's family.
    Not a good bet on Americans being anything but crap away from home.

    FPT, I like your thinking on cricket, an Ashes tour is definitely on the bucket list but need to finish the F1 season first. Baku and hopefully Hungary for this year.
    Well I know that now :-)

    At the time, I just couldn't see how the European's could win, the teams were so lopsided in terms of talent and the French course was very American in style.

    But the American's to a man decided to play like your local 28 handicap hacker on a Sunday morning combined with crazy team strategy (e.g. playing Tiger Woods every match), while some of the Europeans played better golf than they have ever (and will ever) play.
    There's nothing wrong with being a 28-handicap club hacker, I'll have you know! ;)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 34,434
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Sandpit said:

    GIN1138 said:

    At this rate the Betfair exchange graph will be looking like it did on 23rd/24th June 2016 on 29th/30th March. :D

    This one?
    image
    What a night! :D

    #NeverForget
    What a Christmas that paid for..unlike this year, where the failure of the US Ryder Cup team meant we were more like Tiny Tim's family.
    Not a good bet on Americans being anything but crap away from home.

    FPT, I like your thinking on cricket, an Ashes tour is definitely on the bucket list but need to finish the F1 season first. Baku and hopefully Hungary for this year.
    Well I know that now :-)

    At the time, I just couldn't see how the European's could win, the teams were so lopsided in terms of talent and the French course was very American in style.

    But the American's to a man decided to play like your local 28 handicap hacker on a Sunday morning combined with crazy team strategy (e.g. playing Tiger Woods every match), while some of the Europeans played better golf than they have ever (and will ever) play.
    There's nothing wrong with being a 28-handicap club hacker, I'll have you know! ;)
    That week you probably had a chance to beat Tiger Woods he was that shit.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 34,434
    edited January 10
    Ring provided its Ukraine-based research and development team virtually unfettered access to a folder on Amazon’s S3 cloud storage service that contained every video created by every Ring camera around the world. This would amount to an enormous list of highly sensitive files that could be easily browsed and viewed. Downloading and sharing these customer video files would have required little more than a click.

    image
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 28,798
    Is it mandatory to write KLOBUCHAR in upper case?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 9,074

    FPT did someone say KLOBUCHAR? The case for her is:

    * Good at getting Republicans to vote for her - see https://edition-m.cnn.com/2019/01/02/politics/democrats-2020-electability-elizabeth-warren-amy-klobuchar-sherrod-brown/index.html
    * Strong legislative record, has a good versiom of the "getting things done across the aisle" story that all successful presidential candidates before Trump told (and even Trump did "art of the deal")
    * Appeals to mid-western states that Trump took off the Dems, and also promising for Iowa
    * Good performance against Kavanaugh, unlike Harris who set him up for a big reveal then didn't reveal anything
    * Nice combination of no-bullshit, down-to-earth and just enough emotion. This is a tightrope for women candidates, especially on the left: They're not supposed to be "strident", but they're also not allowed to be weak. See:

    She also scores well on the weird name factor that is compulsory in America, though Kamala scores here too...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 22,172
    Very worrying, yet entirely expected with the culture of most modern tech companies. But hey, the employees got their $1bn payday from Amazon buying them out, so everyone's happy. Except the customers.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 75,321
    edited January 10

    Ring provided its Ukraine-based research and development team virtually unfettered access to a folder on Amazon’s S3 cloud storage service that contained every video created by every Ring camera around the world. This would amount to an enormous list of highly sensitive files that could be easily browsed and viewed. Downloading and sharing these customer video files would have required little more than a click.

    image
    I'm just off to smash my Ring camera.

    I wonder how much I should sue them for?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 11,207

    Is it mandatory to write KLOBUCHAR in upper case?

    Not yet, but it will become mandatory by decree in the eleventh year of her glorious reign, you might as well get used to it now.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 37,527
    edited January 10

    Ring provided its Ukraine-based research and development team virtually unfettered access to a folder on Amazon’s S3 cloud storage service that contained every video created by every Ring camera around the world. This would amount to an enormous list of highly sensitive files that could be easily browsed and viewed. Downloading and sharing these customer video files would have required little more than a click.

    image
    Great gif hah.

    Why on earth would you want to stick a bunch of cameras in your home that are uploaded to the cloud? If you are going to do it, link them to something like an arduino with an SD card which can be hidden quite easily.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 8,603

    Is it mandatory to write KLOBUCHAR in upper case?

    There's me trying to work out the phrase that it stood for!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,644
    Might want to write that a bit bigger, lads.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 34,434
    edited January 10
    RobD said:

    Ring provided its Ukraine-based research and development team virtually unfettered access to a folder on Amazon’s S3 cloud storage service that contained every video created by every Ring camera around the world. This would amount to an enormous list of highly sensitive files that could be easily browsed and viewed. Downloading and sharing these customer video files would have required little more than a click.

    image
    Great gif hah.

    Why on earth would you want to stick a bunch of cameras in your home that are uploaded to the cloud? If you are going to do it, link them to something like an arduino with an SD card which can be hidden quite easily.
    The thing is the future of these smart assistant like Echo and Google Home is to incorporate always on video. And they are going to use the video to help make these things more proactive. And it seems people are buying these things like they are going out of fashion.

    Totally crazy if you ask me. I certainly don't have them and I am hardly a tin foil hatter, it just seems stupid security risk for what is really little gain i.e. I am not that f##king lazy not to be able to turn lights on and off myself.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,185

    Is it mandatory to write KLOBUCHAR in upper case?

    Not yet, but it will become mandatory by decree in the eleventh year of her glorious reign, you might as well get used to it now.
    John Bercow will put an end to the tradition
  • GIN1138 said:
    Fraser and the telegraph may, but the important May will not lead her government into no deal
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 8,603
    You know it's authentic because they spelt surveyor correctly. Th at would be beyond the EDL mob.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 3,526
    RobD said:

    Ring provided its Ukraine-based research and development team virtually unfettered access to a folder on Amazon’s S3 cloud storage service that contained every video created by every Ring camera around the world. This would amount to an enormous list of highly sensitive files that could be easily browsed and viewed. Downloading and sharing these customer video files would have required little more than a click.

    image
    Great gif hah.

    Why on earth would you want to stick a bunch of cameras in your home that are uploaded to the cloud? If you are going to do it, link them to something like an arduino with an SD card which can be hidden quite easily.
    Because it's easy. Not everyone is a briefcase wanker with the time and inclination to arse about with arduinos and SD cards.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 9,074
    Yeah, the executive really don't like it when the legislature takes back control.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 1,655
    Interesting... FT front cover is embargoed from #tomorrowspaperstoday until print publication.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 14,854

    GIN1138 said:
    Fraser and the telegraph may, but the important May will not lead her government into no deal
    Fraser is very well connected (as is James Forsyth) I think we have to take what he says seriously.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 37,527
    Dura_Ace said:

    RobD said:

    Ring provided its Ukraine-based research and development team virtually unfettered access to a folder on Amazon’s S3 cloud storage service that contained every video created by every Ring camera around the world. This would amount to an enormous list of highly sensitive files that could be easily browsed and viewed. Downloading and sharing these customer video files would have required little more than a click.

    image
    Great gif hah.

    Why on earth would you want to stick a bunch of cameras in your home that are uploaded to the cloud? If you are going to do it, link them to something like an arduino with an SD card which can be hidden quite easily.
    Because it's easy. Not everyone is a briefcase wanker with the time and inclination to arse about with arduinos and SD cards.
    I was more that there should be an opening in the market for that sort of thing, that isn't tied to the cloud.
  • Interesting... FT front cover is embargoed from #tomorrowspaperstoday until print publication.

    They do this often.

    It is often a boring tedious story.

    Sometimes a biggie.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 20,219
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    WTF is the point of leaving but being permanently tied to the rules and with no say in them?

    So if a repeat of something like the Working Time Directive comes through, perhaps with a Fremch inspired 35hr limit, we would automatically adopt it, have no say and no opt outs?
    Permanently? I thought no parliament could bind its successor?
    It can if it is part of an international agreement.

    While the EU have said that the agreement is final that means they're not willing to give us any more concessions. If we voluntarily agree to prostrate ourselves further binding ourselves to them more than they asked for I'm sure they'd be happy to facilitate that by adding a legally binding annex to the withdrawal agreement binding us into honouring that.
    Ah, the law is being used to direct negotiations for the future relationship? HMG can just say they tried...
    Let's imagine for a second Parliament agrees to approve the WDA on condition of UK honouring EU environment and employment laws. Then to be "helpful" Barnier says we can facilitate this, sign this legally binding annex to be added to the WDA. HMG can hardly not sign it.
    I thought there could be nothing legally binding about the future relationship in the withdrawal agreement due to sequencing?
    The backstop is about the future relationship and is legally binding. That's the issue is that the EU have put what they want to be legally binding and what we want for the future. If we sign up to following their laws in perpetuity with no votes or opt-outs I'm sure they'd be happy to make that legally binding, that's a win/win for them.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,644
    edited January 10
    Another former minister told the Guardian that serving ministers could stand down to vote against the deal.

    If I could be forgiven crudeness for the moment, what in the ever living fuck are these clowns playing at? Why, after all this time, would someone quit now to vote against the deal?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 8,603
    GIN1138 said:
    If Fraser thinks it is going to be "No Deal" we can probably all breathe a sigh of relief - it won't be No Deal.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 20,219
    kle4 said:

    Another former minister told the Guardian that serving ministers could stand down to vote against the deal.

    If I could be forgiven crudeness for the moment, what in the ever living fuck are these clowns playing at? Why, after all this time, would someone quit now to vote against the deal?
    Because they've waited until the last moment to see if there were any forthcoming concessions by Europe in May's fabled late negotiations to see if it could make this bitter pill easier to swallow.
  • RobD said:

    Ring provided its Ukraine-based research and development team virtually unfettered access to a folder on Amazon’s S3 cloud storage service that contained every video created by every Ring camera around the world. This would amount to an enormous list of highly sensitive files that could be easily browsed and viewed. Downloading and sharing these customer video files would have required little more than a click.

    image
    Great gif hah.

    Why on earth would you want to stick a bunch of cameras in your home that are uploaded to the cloud? If you are going to do it, link them to something like an arduino with an SD card which can be hidden quite easily.
    The thing is the future of these smart assistant like Echo and Google Home is to incorporate always on video. And they are going to use the video to help make these things more proactive. And it seems people are buying these things like they are going out of fashion.

    Totally crazy if you ask me. I certainly don't have them and I am hardly a tin foil hatter, it just seems stupid security risk for what is really little gain i.e. I am not that f##king lazy not to be able to turn lights on and off myself.
    I have a ring video doorbell and it is excellent, as my mobility is not as good as it was, and I can speak to the person at the door. Both my wife and I can use live view to see who is at the door and my wife feels much safer.

    The video is held on cloud for 6 weeks and I have no problem with it. It also amuses our young grandchildren when I speak through it to them
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,644
    Even if it is deserved it would not be be a good look to seek revenge. I wouldn't bother.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    You know it's authentic because they spelt surveyor correctly. Th at would be beyond the EDL mob.
    They might even struggle to spell Nazi.
  • GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:
    Fraser and the telegraph may, but the important May will not lead her government into no deal
    Fraser is very well connected (as is James Forsyth) I think we have to take what he says seriously.
    Well with 500 mps against it will not happen.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 8,603
    edited January 10
    kle4 said:

    Another former minister told the Guardian that serving ministers could stand down to vote against the deal.

    If I could be forgiven crudeness for the moment, what in the ever living fuck are these clowns playing at? Why, after all this time, would someone quit now to vote against the deal?
    Having some of their ministers resign now would apparently strengthen the Government's hand in the [completed] negotiations with the EU.

    The longer this goes on the more bat-shit crazy the ERG mob are becoming.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 22,172
    RobD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    RobD said:

    Ring provided its Ukraine-based research and development team virtually unfettered access to a folder on Amazon’s S3 cloud storage service that contained every video created by every Ring camera around the world. This would amount to an enormous list of highly sensitive files that could be easily browsed and viewed. Downloading and sharing these customer video files would have required little more than a click.

    image
    Great gif hah.

    Why on earth would you want to stick a bunch of cameras in your home that are uploaded to the cloud? If you are going to do it, link them to something like an arduino with an SD card which can be hidden quite easily.
    Because it's easy. Not everyone is a briefcase wanker with the time and inclination to arse about with arduinos and SD cards.
    I was more that there should be an opening in the market for that sort of thing, that isn't tied to the cloud.
    It's called X10 and it's been around for years decades.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    GIN1138 said:
    If Fraser thinks it is going to be "No Deal" we can probably all breathe a sigh of relief - it won't be No Deal.
    :smiley:
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,644

    kle4 said:

    Another former minister told the Guardian that serving ministers could stand down to vote against the deal.

    If I could be forgiven crudeness for the moment, what in the ever living fuck are these clowns playing at? Why, after all this time, would someone quit now to vote against the deal?
    Because they've waited until the last moment to see if there were any forthcoming concessions by Europe in May's fabled late negotiations to see if it could make this bitter pill easier to swallow.
    No. 10s line for a month before the MV was pulled was there would be no changes. Yes she then tried to say she would get some more, but given her policy for a month was that was not possible, there's no justifiable reason someone who needed the concessions to stay in post (as opposed to wanting concessions but able to vote for the deal as is) had not quit in advance of the last minute pulling of the MV.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 12,183
    Further to the tax talk earlier today, it’s interesting that the EU state aid rules can be a quite effective mechanism for attacking some multinational tax avoidance.
    After going after Appple, now it’s Nike’s turn:
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jan/10/eu-investigates-nikes-tax-status-in-the-netherlands
  • RobDRobD Posts: 37,527
    edited January 10

    twitter.com/mikeysmith/status/1083493392640811009

    Corbyn... genius....?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 37,527

    Interesting... FT front cover is embargoed from #tomorrowspaperstoday until print publication.

    They do this often.

    It is often a boring tedious story.

    Sometimes a biggie.
    Was embargoed yesterday or the day before, too.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,644
    edited January 10
    RobD said:

    twitter.com/mikeysmith/status/1083493392640811009

    Corbyn... genius....?
    I called him that just yesterday without irony. Of course I meant accidental genius, and purely in relation to Brexit positioning, but still.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 8,603

    Interesting... FT front cover is embargoed from #tomorrowspaperstoday until print publication.

    They do this often.

    It is often a boring tedious story.

    Sometimes a biggie.
    Let's hope it's not "Debenhams chairman ousted by Mike Ashley". :wink:
  • kle4 said:

    Another former minister told the Guardian that serving ministers could stand down to vote against the deal.

    If I could be forgiven crudeness for the moment, what in the ever living fuck are these clowns playing at? Why, after all this time, would someone quit now to vote against the deal?
    Having some of their ministers resign now would apparently strengthen the Government's hand in the [completed] negotiations with the EU.

    The longer this goes on the more bat-shit crazy the ERG mob are becoming.
    In blind panic maybe. They have been the architect of their own demise
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 1,489
    kle4 said:

    Even if it is deserved it would not be be a good look to seek revenge. I wouldn't bother.
    He makes it so tempting with that inane grin
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 8,603
    RobD said:

    Interesting... FT front cover is embargoed from #tomorrowspaperstoday until print publication.

    They do this often.

    It is often a boring tedious story.

    Sometimes a biggie.
    Was embargoed yesterday or the day before, too.
    Maybe they have got writers' block.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 11,118

    GIN1138 said:

    Sandpit said:

    GIN1138 said:

    At this rate the Betfair exchange graph will be looking like it did on 23rd/24th June 2016 on 29th/30th March. :D

    This one?
    image
    What a night! :D

    #NeverForget
    What a Christmas that paid for..unlike this year, where the failure of the US Ryder Cup team meant we were more like Tiny Tim's family*.

    * Only joking, the idiot fans of Conor McGregor contributed handsomely to the old Christmas kitty.
    The one and only time I broke my cast iron rule to never bet on boxing. Ludicrous odds.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,644
    Is it funny that on the very day a handful of MPs have finally switched from being against the deal to for it that research from the BBC indicates May would, even with those switches, face one of if not the biggest defeats ever for a government. The first good news they've had for a month, but barely a flicker of light amid the darkness.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 8,603

    kle4 said:

    Another former minister told the Guardian that serving ministers could stand down to vote against the deal.

    If I could be forgiven crudeness for the moment, what in the ever living fuck are these clowns playing at? Why, after all this time, would someone quit now to vote against the deal?
    Because they've waited until the last moment to see if there were any forthcoming concessions by Europe in May's fabled late negotiations to see if it could make this bitter pill easier to swallow.
    Er... "I'm quitting as a cabinet mimister because the EU won't offer a concession." ?

    Not going to be a great look is it.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 9,074

    kle4 said:

    Another former minister told the Guardian that serving ministers could stand down to vote against the deal.

    If I could be forgiven crudeness for the moment, what in the ever living fuck are these clowns playing at? Why, after all this time, would someone quit now to vote against the deal?
    Having some of their ministers resign now would apparently strengthen the Government's hand in the [completed] negotiations with the EU.

    The longer this goes on the more bat-shit crazy the ERG mob are becoming.
    In blind panic maybe. They have been the architect of their own demise
    Shrimsley has it down pat, and outside the firewall:

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 22,172

    RobD said:

    Interesting... FT front cover is embargoed from #tomorrowspaperstoday until print publication.

    They do this often.

    It is often a boring tedious story.

    Sometimes a biggie.
    Was embargoed yesterday or the day before, too.
    Maybe they have got writers' block.
    Or they fired so many sub-editors, that when one calls in sick the paper goes out two hours late.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 24,387
    edited January 10
    kle4 said:

    Is it funny that on the very day a handful of MPs have finally switched from being against the deal to for it that research from the BBC indicates May would, even with those switches, face one of if not the biggest defeats ever for a government. The first good news they've had for a month, but barely a flicker of light amid the darkness.

    The deal needs to be voted on, everything will flow from that and I still think TM has a good chance of achieving a deal as no deal is off the table, and the other options are as, if not more, difficult
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,644

    kle4 said:

    Another former minister told the Guardian that serving ministers could stand down to vote against the deal.

    If I could be forgiven crudeness for the moment, what in the ever living fuck are these clowns playing at? Why, after all this time, would someone quit now to vote against the deal?
    Because they've waited until the last moment to see if there were any forthcoming concessions by Europe in May's fabled late negotiations to see if it could make this bitter pill easier to swallow.
    Er... "I'm quitting as a cabinet minister because the EU won't offer a concession." ?

    Not going to be a great look is it.
    I just cannot quite believe someone who by staying in post even when any concession at all was dismissed as impossible thus indicated they backed the deal as is, could possibly with a straight face claim the lack of concession means they feel they have to resign now.

    I mean, I'm not being unfair am I? It just seems so logically absurd to me.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 34,434
    edited January 10
    Alistair said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Sandpit said:

    GIN1138 said:

    At this rate the Betfair exchange graph will be looking like it did on 23rd/24th June 2016 on 29th/30th March. :D

    This one?
    image
    What a night! :D

    #NeverForget
    What a Christmas that paid for..unlike this year, where the failure of the US Ryder Cup team meant we were more like Tiny Tim's family*.

    * Only joking, the idiot fans of Conor McGregor contributed handsomely to the old Christmas kitty.
    The one and only time I broke my cast iron rule to never bet on boxing. Ludicrous odds.
    I was talking about McGregor vs Khabib Nurmagomedov, but yes I also piled in on the Mayweather fight.

    It was just so ridiculous, the best defensive boxer of all time, unbeaten and basically untouched for 49 fights, and people thought a bloke who has never fought professional boxing was going to mash him up, dream on.

    It was same for the Khabib MMA fight. This guy was unbeaten, barely troubled by previous opponents, hard as nails and has an elite grappler who nobody has managed to escape from. The only tiny chance McGregor had was that he would wildly swing and connect before Khabib would wrap him up like a Christmas present.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,644

    kle4 said:

    Is it funny that on the very day a handful of MPs have finally switched from being against the deal to for it that research from the BBC indicates May would, even with those switches, face one of if not the biggest defeats ever for a government. The first good news they've had for a month, but barely a flicker of light amid the darkness.

    The deal needs to be voted on, everything will flow from that and I still think TM has a good chance of achieving a deal as no deal is off the table, and the other options are as, if not more, difficult
    Your optimism is an inspiration against my gloomy pessimism, but with best case scenarios of the defeat being if the gov can manage to lose by less than three figures, I've never seen such a dead proposal.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 1,489

    kle4 said:

    Another former minister told the Guardian that serving ministers could stand down to vote against the deal.

    If I could be forgiven crudeness for the moment, what in the ever living fuck are these clowns playing at? Why, after all this time, would someone quit now to vote against the deal?
    Having some of their ministers resign now would apparently strengthen the Government's hand in the [completed] negotiations with the EU.

    The longer this goes on the more bat-shit crazy the ERG mob are becoming.
    In blind panic maybe. They have been the architect of their own demise
    I’ve always wondered how the EU thought the deal would get through the Parliamentary test. It’s all very well ‘winning’ a negotiation but when that has to be supported via the Parliament then too disadvantageous a deal seems to invite a rejection
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 8,603
    edited January 10

    kle4 said:

    Another former minister told the Guardian that serving ministers could stand down to vote against the deal.

    If I could be forgiven crudeness for the moment, what in the ever living fuck are these clowns playing at? Why, after all this time, would someone quit now to vote against the deal?
    Having some of their ministers resign now would apparently strengthen the Government's hand in the [completed] negotiations with the EU.

    The longer this goes on the more bat-shit crazy the ERG mob are becoming.
    In blind panic maybe. They have been the architect of their own demise
    I’ve always wondered how the EU thought the deal would get through the Parliamentary test. It’s all very well ‘winning’ a negotiation but when that has to be supported via the Parliament then too disadvantageous a deal seems to invite a rejection
    The EU made the mistake of thinking that our PM knew parliament better than they did.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 26,870
    No-one should be surprised that the Chinese growth rate is declining, since their working-age population has been dropping for nearly 3 years.

    https://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-working-age-population-peaked-2016-4?r=UK&IR=T
    http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201801/12/WS5a584e92a3102c394518edbc.html
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 24,387
    edited January 10
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Is it funny that on the very day a handful of MPs have finally switched from being against the deal to for it that research from the BBC indicates May would, even with those switches, face one of if not the biggest defeats ever for a government. The first good news they've had for a month, but barely a flicker of light amid the darkness.

    The deal needs to be voted on, everything will flow from that and I still think TM has a good chance of achieving a deal as no deal is off the table, and the other options are as, if not more, difficult
    Your optimism is an inspiration against my gloomy pessimism, but with best case scenarios of the defeat being if the gov can manage to lose by less than three figures, I've never seen such a dead proposal.
    Not sure it is optimism but more instinct, as it is going to be deal or remain and even if TM deal goes down by 200, the other option would be no deal or remain, which is crazy
  • Has anyone else noticed that *nobody* is talking about the DUP at the moment?It is almost as if there is no balance of power to be held at the moment.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 8,603
    edited January 10
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Is it funny that on the very day a handful of MPs have finally switched from being against the deal to for it that research from the BBC indicates May would, even with those switches, face one of if not the biggest defeats ever for a government. The first good news they've had for a month, but barely a flicker of light amid the darkness.

    The deal needs to be voted on, everything will flow from that and I still think TM has a good chance of achieving a deal as no deal is off the table, and the other options are as, if not more, difficult
    Your optimism is an inspiration against my gloomy pessimism, but with best case scenarios of the defeat being if the gov can manage to lose by less than three figures, I've never seen such a dead proposal.
    Where it gets interesting is if the govt can limit the loss to around 80. They would then be tempted to have another go, maybe making it clear at that point that there will be a GE or Ref2 if the Deal does not go through.

    (PS I don't think they can limit the loss to 80 unless a left-field deal with Corbyn is cooked up - in which case the Deal will would pass.)
  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Another former minister told the Guardian that serving ministers could stand down to vote against the deal.

    If I could be forgiven crudeness for the moment, what in the ever living fuck are these clowns playing at? Why, after all this time, would someone quit now to vote against the deal?
    Because they've waited until the last moment to see if there were any forthcoming concessions by Europe in May's fabled late negotiations to see if it could make this bitter pill easier to swallow.
    Er... "I'm quitting as a cabinet minister because the EU won't offer a concession." ?

    Not going to be a great look is it.
    I just cannot quite believe someone who by staying in post even when any concession at all was dismissed as impossible thus indicated they backed the deal as is, could possibly with a straight face claim the lack of concession means they feel they have to resign now.

    I mean, I'm not being unfair am I? It just seems so logically absurd to me.
    Your last line is spot on. But so much is logically absurd in this chaos
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,644

    kle4 said:

    Another former minister told the Guardian that serving ministers could stand down to vote against the deal.

    If I could be forgiven crudeness for the moment, what in the ever living fuck are these clowns playing at? Why, after all this time, would someone quit now to vote against the deal?
    Having some of their ministers resign now would apparently strengthen the Government's hand in the [completed] negotiations with the EU.

    The longer this goes on the more bat-shit crazy the ERG mob are becoming.
    In blind panic maybe. They have been the architect of their own demise
    I’ve always wondered how the EU thought the deal would get through the Parliamentary test. It’s all very well ‘winning’ a negotiation but when that has to be supported via the Parliament then too disadvantageous a deal seems to invite a rejection
    I think for all some EU fans like to think the EU knows us so much better than we know them, it is just as capable of misjudging the situation. Even if that misjudgement was around how crazy we would be, that should have been a factor in their negotiating. No they could hardly abandon certain lines, but none of us are going to get satisfaction from no deal in pointing out it is the other side's fault, and for all May's flawed efforts, she really has not been bluffing about how certain things would not work. If they understood our system at all they'd know that even May caving on some things wouldn't guarantee anything.

    Other options are that they never wanted a deal at all really, but that would be to say they are liars which I don't think is fair - they say a deal is best for both of us and I believe them. Or that they are banking on us remaining after all if they make it even harder. But that is too finicky to be plausible I think.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 20,219

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Is it funny that on the very day a handful of MPs have finally switched from being against the deal to for it that research from the BBC indicates May would, even with those switches, face one of if not the biggest defeats ever for a government. The first good news they've had for a month, but barely a flicker of light amid the darkness.

    The deal needs to be voted on, everything will flow from that and I still think TM has a good chance of achieving a deal as no deal is off the table, and the other options are as, if not more, difficult
    Your optimism is an inspiration against my gloomy pessimism, but with best case scenarios of the defeat being if the gov can manage to lose by less than three figures, I've never seen such a dead proposal.
    Not sure it is optimism but more instinct, as it is going to be deal or remain and even if TM deal goes down by 200, there is no other option other than no deal or remain
    Did you mean no deal or remain at the end?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 8,603

    Has anyone else noticed that *nobody* is talking about the DUP at the moment?It is almost as if there is no balance of power to be held at the moment.

    The DUP have made themselves irrelevant by their 'never surrender' approach to this.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 9,074
    AndyJS said:

    No-one should be surprised that the Chinese growth rate is declining, since their working-age population has been dropping for nearly 3 years.

    https://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-working-age-population-peaked-2016-4?r=UK&IR=T
    http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201801/12/WS5a584e92a3102c394518edbc.html

    Surely the same applies to our working age population?

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,644

    Has anyone else noticed that *nobody* is talking about the DUP at the moment?It is almost as if there is no balance of power to be held at the moment.

    Well they came up at the beginning of the week IIRC, in their latest rebuff to talks with May's team. I guess in a sense they are not important, not because their vote is not criticial, but because it is almost certain their position is locked down so discussion is on potential, if implausible, changes, like masses of Tories changing tune or Labour abstaining or whatever.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 20,219

    kle4 said:

    Another former minister told the Guardian that serving ministers could stand down to vote against the deal.

    If I could be forgiven crudeness for the moment, what in the ever living fuck are these clowns playing at? Why, after all this time, would someone quit now to vote against the deal?
    Having some of their ministers resign now would apparently strengthen the Government's hand in the [completed] negotiations with the EU.

    The longer this goes on the more bat-shit crazy the ERG mob are becoming.
    In blind panic maybe. They have been the architect of their own demise
    I’ve always wondered how the EU thought the deal would get through the Parliamentary test. It’s all very well ‘winning’ a negotiation but when that has to be supported via the Parliament then too disadvantageous a deal seems to invite a rejection
    The EU made the mistake of thinking that our PM knew parliament better than they did.
    The EU made the mistake of thinking that Parliament would be as petrified of no deal as May is so would sign whatever they put in front of it.
  • Jo Swinson is so much better than Layla Mahmood
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 20,219
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Another former minister told the Guardian that serving ministers could stand down to vote against the deal.

    If I could be forgiven crudeness for the moment, what in the ever living fuck are these clowns playing at? Why, after all this time, would someone quit now to vote against the deal?
    Because they've waited until the last moment to see if there were any forthcoming concessions by Europe in May's fabled late negotiations to see if it could make this bitter pill easier to swallow.
    No. 10s line for a month before the MV was pulled was there would be no changes. Yes she then tried to say she would get some more, but given her policy for a month was that was not possible, there's no justifiable reason someone who needed the concessions to stay in post (as opposed to wanting concessions but able to vote for the deal as is) had not quit in advance of the last minute pulling of the MV.
    Last minute resignations are standard for any major rebellion. It was number 10's line for months that Britain should go to war with Iraq, yet it took until the day of the rebellion for Robin Cook to resign.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 8,603

    kle4 said:

    Another former minister told the Guardian that serving ministers could stand down to vote against the deal.

    If I could be forgiven crudeness for the moment, what in the ever living fuck are these clowns playing at? Why, after all this time, would someone quit now to vote against the deal?
    Having some of their ministers resign now would apparently strengthen the Government's hand in the [completed] negotiations with the EU.

    The longer this goes on the more bat-shit crazy the ERG mob are becoming.
    In blind panic maybe. They have been the architect of their own demise
    I’ve always wondered how the EU thought the deal would get through the Parliamentary test. It’s all very well ‘winning’ a negotiation but when that has to be supported via the Parliament then too disadvantageous a deal seems to invite a rejection
    The EU made the mistake of thinking that our PM knew parliament better than they did.
    The EU made the mistake of thinking that Parliament would be as petrified of no deal as May is so would sign whatever they put in front of it.
    Only a small minority of MPs think No Deal is an option.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 20,219

    Has anyone else noticed that *nobody* is talking about the DUP at the moment?It is almost as if there is no balance of power to be held at the moment.

    When you're talking a hundred plus rebels, there is no balance of power.
  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Is it funny that on the very day a handful of MPs have finally switched from being against the deal to for it that research from the BBC indicates May would, even with those switches, face one of if not the biggest defeats ever for a government. The first good news they've had for a month, but barely a flicker of light amid the darkness.

    The deal needs to be voted on, everything will flow from that and I still think TM has a good chance of achieving a deal as no deal is off the table, and the other options are as, if not more, difficult
    Your optimism is an inspiration against my gloomy pessimism, but with best case scenarios of the defeat being if the gov can manage to lose by less than three figures, I've never seen such a dead proposal.
    Not sure it is optimism but more instinct, as it is going to be deal or remain and even if TM deal goes down by 200, there is no other option other than no deal or remain
    Did you mean no deal or remain at the end?
    I expressed it poorly and have edited it. If the deal goes down the idea the choice would be no deal or remain is crazy
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 20,219

    kle4 said:

    Another former minister told the Guardian that serving ministers could stand down to vote against the deal.

    If I could be forgiven crudeness for the moment, what in the ever living fuck are these clowns playing at? Why, after all this time, would someone quit now to vote against the deal?
    Having some of their ministers resign now would apparently strengthen the Government's hand in the [completed] negotiations with the EU.

    The longer this goes on the more bat-shit crazy the ERG mob are becoming.
    In blind panic maybe. They have been the architect of their own demise
    I’ve always wondered how the EU thought the deal would get through the Parliamentary test. It’s all very well ‘winning’ a negotiation but when that has to be supported via the Parliament then too disadvantageous a deal seems to invite a rejection
    The EU made the mistake of thinking that our PM knew parliament better than they did.
    The EU made the mistake of thinking that Parliament would be as petrified of no deal as May is so would sign whatever they put in front of it.
    Only a small minority of MPs think No Deal is an option.
    But MPs can hide behind rejecting other options and insist upon their own mutually contradictory options until it happens by default.
This discussion has been closed.