A German politician has left the far-right Alternative for Germany to set up a new party with a logo that uses a symbol adopted as a secret sign by Austrian Nazis in the 1930s.
I wonder how many of the "stay in" camp are reconciled stay in-ers. Many, I would warrant. If so, then they would likely or possibly support the deal as they might appreciate that given where we are, it is a starting point.
For the Get completely out-ers, they are mistaking the WA for the final agreement. In theory they may get up in arms about the backstop but in the medium term they could easily have what they want. So illogical for them to dislike the WA so much.
For the whatevers, then surely they would want to avoid some of the chaos that most people, IDS and Mark Francois apart, are telling them would follow no deal?
No?
*IF* people are offered a choice through another vote then I maintain that the only way that choice has a chance of both getting through Parliament, and persuading the EU to boot the A50 deadline far enough into the future to hold it (if that's even possible,) is if it's Deal vs Remain. And then the Deal is toast.
I understand where you're coming from with regard to the Deal being a transitional arrangement, but in practice the backstop defeats that argument. What would be said widely during a referendum campaign, and likely believed, is that we'd end up stuck in limbo indefinitely because of the Northern Ireland border problem, that a future Government would probably end up subscribing to a permanent arrangement involving a customs union to resolve it, and that all-in-all if we don't intend to make a clean break then we might as well stay in.
I dare say that, for quite a lot of people, (a) keeping out of the EU's core political project, and (b) making Brexit go away will be enough to persuade them to sign up to the Deal, but I don't think there'll be a sufficient number of such voters available to win a majority in a binary plebiscite. The Deal will be viewed as a disappointment by many Leave backers: my guess is that some would conclude that they actively prefer being full participants in the EU to being half-in, half-out and therefore change sides, but most would stay at home.
Under Deal vs Remain, I think what would basically happen is that all the Remainers would turn out to play but a lot of the Brexiteers wouldn't. A win, and probably a comfortable win, for Remain.
Suspect Deal will prevail in the short term, but then, as in the 60's, we're get tired of being rule-takers and otherwise outsiders and want to join.
I wonder how many of the "stay in" camp are reconciled stay in-ers. Many, I would warrant. If so, then they would likely or possibly support the deal as they might appreciate that given where we are, it is a starting point.
For the Get completely out-ers, they are mistaking the WA for the final agreement. In theory they may get up in arms about the backstop but in the medium term they could easily have what they want. So illogical for them to dislike the WA so much.
For the whatevers, then surely they would want to avoid some of the chaos that most people, IDS and Mark Francois apart, are telling them would follow no deal?
No?
*IF* people are offered a choice through another vote then I maintain that the only way that choice has a chance of both getting through Parliament, and persuading the EU to boot the A50 deadline far enough into the future to hold it (if that's even possible,) is if it's Deal vs Remain. And then the Deal is toast.
I understand where you're coming from with regard to the Deal being a transitional arrangement, but in practice the backstop defeats that argument. What would be said widely during a referendum campaign, and likely believed, is that we'd end up stuck in limbo indefinitely because of the Northern Ireland border problem, that a future Government would probably end up subscribing to a permanent arrangement involving a customs union to resolve it, and that all-in-all if we don't intend to make a clean break then we might as well stay in.
I dare say that, for quite a lot of people, (a) keeping out of the EU's core political project, and (b) making Brexit go away will be enough to persuade them to sign up to the Deal, but I don't think there'll be a sufficient number of such voters available to win a majority in a binary plebiscite. The Deal will be viewed as a disappointment by many Leave backers: my guess is that some would conclude that they actively prefer being full participants in the EU to being half-in, half-out and therefore change sides, but most would stay at home.
Under Deal vs Remain, I think what would basically happen is that all the Remainers would turn out to play but a lot of the Brexiteers wouldn't. A win, and probably a comfortable win, for Remain.
Yes I see that. It's still amazing how twisted the arguments have become. As they used to say about the Palestinians (sorry for the trigger @TheJezziah and @bigjohnowls) Leavers never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity.
Just watched Question Time. I thought Fiona Bruce did a great job keeping people on topic and ensuring the bullshit was limited. They need to stop putting comedians on the panel who offer nothing though.
Just watched Question Time. I thought Fiona Bruce did a great job keeping people on topic and ensuring the bullshit was limited. They need to stop putting comedians on the panel who offer nothing though.
A German politician has left the far-right Alternative for Germany to set up a new party with a logo that uses a symbol adopted as a secret sign by Austrian Nazis in the 1930s.
I wonder how many of the "stay in" camp are reconciled stay in-ers. Many, I would warrant. If so, then they would likely or possibly support the deal as they might appreciate that given where we are, it is a starting point.
For the Get completely out-ers, they are mistaking the WA for the final agreement. In theory they may get up in arms about the backstop but in the medium term they could easily have what they want. So illogical for them to dislike the WA so much.
For the whatevers, then surely they would want to avoid some of the chaos that most people, IDS and Mark Francois apart, are telling them would follow no deal?
No?
*IF* people are offered a choice through another vote then I maintain that the only way that choice has a chance of both getting through Parliament, and persuading the EU to boot the A50 deadline far enough into the future to hold it (if that's even possible,) is if it's Deal vs Remain. And then the Deal is toast.
I understand where you're coming from with regard to the Deal being a transitional arrangement, but in practice the backstop defeats that argument. What would be said widely during a referendum campaign, and likely believed, is that we'd end up stuck in limbo indefinitely because of the Northern Ireland border problem, that a future Government would probably end up subscribing to a permanent arrangement involving a customs union to resolve it, and that all-in-all if we don't intend to make a clean break then we might as well stay in.
I dare say that, for quite a lot of people, (a) keeping out of the EU's core political project, and (b) making Brexit go away will be enough to persuade them to sign up to the Deal, but I don't think there'll be a sufficient number of such voters available to win a majority in a binary plebiscite. The Deal will be viewed as a disappointment by many Leave backers: my guess is that some would conclude that they actively prefer being full participants in the EU to being half-in, half-out and therefore change sides, but most would stay at home.
Under Deal vs Remain, I think what would basically happen is that all the Remainers would turn out to play but a lot of the Brexiteers wouldn't. A win, and probably a comfortable win, for Remain.
I think a lot would depend on how leavers campaign. I can see either option being possible: campaign for the WA on the basis that next we can negotiate away the backstop and be 'truly free', or campaign to Remain (or even boycott) as a precursor to a campaign to pursue 'proper' no-Deal Brexit. If the leave groups are as divided as they are as present it's 70-30 win for Remain. If they get their act together on the WA side it's hard to call but I'd say Remain probably loses.
Just watched Question Time. I thought Fiona Bruce did a great job keeping people on topic and ensuring the bullshit was limited. They need to stop putting comedians on the panel who offer nothing though.
Suspect Deal will prevail in the short term, but then, as in the 60's, we're get tired of being rule-takers and otherwise outsiders and want to join.
I think that the probability of Rejoining if Britain leaves depends very much on the medium-term status of the relationship. If it's close - something that resembles being in the EEA or stuck in the backstop, and especially a settled status such as the former - then the Rejoin camp is in with a fighting chance - although I reckon that negotiations on going back in couldn't even start until the EU could be satisfied that a large and durable shift in its favour had occurred amongst British public opinion. Maybe in 15 or 20 years that would be the case, but not before.
If we make a more complete break then the likelihood of going back in within any of our lifetimes seems remote. There'll be too many memories of how bad the experience of entanglement (and disentanglement) with the European project was the first time round for people to be interested in trying to get back into it again from scratch.
Just watched Question Time. I thought Fiona Bruce did a great job keeping people on topic and ensuring the bullshit was limited. They need to stop putting comedians on the panel who offer nothing though.
I think that a number of people would resign from the government if they tried to impose collective responsibility on the matter. Half the Conservatives and all of Labour, SNP, LDs, Greens and UKIP would be against. I don’t see how it wins.
Just about the only worse referendum would be Deal v Remain, which, setting aside how it ever gets proposed in Parliament, would lead to a widespread boycott and disruption, and probably finishes with Remain winning on a <50% turnout, and UKIP polling >30% at the next election.
I do agree that it is problematical. And I most certainly agree with you about Deal v Remain.
So there we are, both the remotely feasible formulations for another EU referendum ruled out.
Suspect Deal will prevail in the short term, but then, as in the 60's, we're get tired of being rule-takers and otherwise outsiders and want to join.
I think that the probability of Rejoining if Britain leaves depends very much on the medium-term status of the relationship. If it's close - something that resembles being in the EEA or stuck in the backstop, and especially a settled status such as the former - then the Rejoin camp is in with a fighting chance - although I reckon that negotiations on going back in couldn't even start until the EU could be satisfied that a large and durable shift in its favour had occurred amongst British public opinion. Maybe in 15 or 20 years that would be the case, but not before.
If we make a more complete break then the likelihood of going back in within any of our lifetimes seems remote. There'll be too many memories of how bad the experience of entanglement (and disentanglement) with the European project was the first time round for people to be interested in trying to get back into it again from scratch.
Agree, although we COULD get back in more quickly if we are in a 'suspended Article 50' situation.
Apropos of that, there was a suggestion upthread that if we did so, we'd have to re-elect our MEP's. Can't see Farage and his motley crew achieving what they did last time. Even their friends in the Press seem to think they're 'not up to it".
Actually, thinking about it, that might be an answer. Either a Coupon election, with Remainer candidates with cross party publicity, or a formal Remain slate. Could result in a Remain majority among Brit MEP's. Could go the other way of course, but I'm not sure UKIP's current structure is up to managing it.
Suspect Deal will prevail in the short term, but then, as in the 60's, we're get tired of being rule-takers and otherwise outsiders and want to join.
I think that the probability of Rejoining if Britain leaves depends very much on the medium-term status of the relationship. If it's close - something that resembles being in the EEA or stuck in the backstop, and especially a settled status such as the former - then the Rejoin camp is in with a fighting chance - although I reckon that negotiations on going back in couldn't even start until the EU could be satisfied that a large and durable shift in its favour had occurred amongst British public opinion. Maybe in 15 or 20 years that would be the case, but not before.
If we make a more complete break then the likelihood of going back in within any of our lifetimes seems remote. There'll be too many memories of how bad the experience of entanglement (and disentanglement) with the European project was the first time round for people to be interested in trying to get back into it again from scratch.
Agree, although we COULD get back in more quickly if we are in a 'suspended Article 50' situation.
Apropos of that, there was a suggestion upthread that if we did so, we'd have to re-elect our MEP's. Can't see Farage and his motley crew achieving what they did last time. Even their friends in the Press seem to think they're 'not up to it".
Actually, thinking about it, that might be an answer. Either a Coupon election, with Remainer candidates with cross party publicity, or a formal Remain slate. Could result in a Remain majority among Brit MEP's. Could go the other way of course, but I'm not sure UKIP's current structure is up to managing it.
I'd have thought UKIP would have a great time with the EU elections. Having them would demonstrate that the government had failed in its commitment to leave.
Just watched Question Time. I thought Fiona Bruce did a great job keeping people on topic and ensuring the bullshit was limited. They need to stop putting comedians on the panel who offer nothing though.
You watch Question Time. Its a garbage in garbage out programme IMHO ..
Just watched Question Time. I thought Fiona Bruce did a great job keeping people on topic and ensuring the bullshit was limited. They need to stop putting comedians on the panel who offer nothing though.
You watch Question Time. Its a garbage in garbage out programme IMHO ..
They really should have just taken that programme out the back and shot it. It is now regularly has as many celebs and journos as actual politicians, and most of the "big beasts" just don't go on it anymore.
I would be much more interested if we had regular debate shows with chancellor vs shadows etc.
I think a lot would depend on how leavers campaign. I can see either option being possible: campaign for the WA on the basis that next we can negotiate away the backstop and be 'truly free', or campaign to Remain (or even boycott) as a precursor to a campaign to pursue 'proper' no-Deal Brexit. If the leave groups are as divided as they are as present it's 70-30 win for Remain. If they get their act together on the WA side it's hard to call but I'd say Remain probably loses.
Oh for sure, if Leavers coalesced around the Deal it would have a great chance. If they didn't, it would have next to none.
Similar dynamics to the Meaningful Vote in parliament.
Just watched Question Time. I thought Fiona Bruce did a great job keeping people on topic and ensuring the bullshit was limited. They need to stop putting comedians on the panel who offer nothing though.
I didn't watch QT, but a review I read afterwards could be summarised as "fresh presenter, shame about the tired old format." The suggestion was there were too many panellists on the show, which is probably right: as with one of those stupid six, seven or eight way General Election debates, you end up with participants getting little chance to get a word in edgeways and/or being restricted to uttering soundbites rather than cogent arguments. They might be better off inviting only two or three.
Of course, none of this does anything to remedy the other problem: that the audience will consist only of people who are willing to travel miles to sit in a draughty hall listening to politicians on a Thursday evening - and will probably, therefore, be comprised disproportionately of those who are the loudest and the most extreme in their opinions.
There is a very useful summary of the parliamentary position on the meaningful vote, including the tabled amendments and the the legal impact of various possibilities, here:
It's quite detailed and a bit long, but a must-read, I think.
I note it agrees with my interpretation of the Mann amendment.
This amendment accepts the deal on the condition the Government maintains standards in a number of areas, including employment, environmental protection and health and safety.
After we leave what is the sanction of the government no longer maintains standards?
Suspect Deal will prevail in the short term, but then, as in the 60's, we're get tired of being rule-takers and otherwise outsiders and want to join.
I think that the probability of Rejoining if Britain leaves depends very much on the medium-term status of the relationship. If it's close - something that resembles being in the EEA or stuck in the backstop, and especially a settled status such as the former - then the Rejoin camp is in with a fighting chance - although I reckon that negotiations on going back in couldn't even start until the EU could be satisfied that a large and durable shift in its favour had occurred amongst British public opinion. Maybe in 15 or 20 years that would be the case, but not before.
If we make a more complete break then the likelihood of going back in within any of our lifetimes seems remote. There'll be too many memories of how bad the experience of entanglement (and disentanglement) with the European project was the first time round for people to be interested in trying to get back into it again from scratch.
Agree, although we COULD get back in more quickly if we are in a 'suspended Article 50' situation.
Apropos of that, there was a suggestion upthread that if we did so, we'd have to re-elect our MEP's. Can't see Farage and his motley crew achieving what they did last time. Even their friends in the Press seem to think they're 'not up to it".
Actually, thinking about it, that might be an answer. Either a Coupon election, with Remainer candidates with cross party publicity, or a formal Remain slate. Could result in a Remain majority among Brit MEP's. Could go the other way of course, but I'm not sure UKIP's current structure is up to managing it.
I'd have thought UKIP would have a great time with the EU elections. Having them would demonstrate that the government had failed in its commitment to leave.
This illustrates why May's strategy has been so woeful from start to finish. She should have planned from the outset to have a Deal ratification referendum. That way, had the deal been rejected (either for No Deal or Remain) the voters would have been the authors of the end result.
This illustrates why May's strategy has been so woeful from start to finish. She should have planned from the outset to have a Deal ratification referendum. That way, had the deal been rejected (either for No Deal or Remain) the voters would have been the authors of the end result.
Why? The decision was to leave. Not ratifying means remain, everyone knows that.
There is a very useful summary of the parliamentary position on the meaningful vote, including the tabled amendments and the the legal impact of various possibilities, here:
It's quite detailed and a bit long, but a must-read, I think.
I note it agrees with my interpretation of the Mann amendment.
This amendment accepts the deal on the condition the Government maintains standards in a number of areas, including employment, environmental protection and health and safety.
After we leave what is the sanction of the government no longer maintains standards?
Presumably they would be breaking their own law and implelled to comply... as they are on any other situation where they break their own laws (e.g. human rights, equality).
There is a very useful summary of the parliamentary position on the meaningful vote, including the tabled amendments and the the legal impact of various possibilities, here:
It's quite detailed and a bit long, but a must-read, I think.
I note it agrees with my interpretation of the Mann amendment.
This amendment accepts the deal on the condition the Government maintains standards in a number of areas, including employment, environmental protection and health and safety.
After we leave what is the sanction of the government no longer maintains standards?
Presumably they would be breaking their own law and implelled to comply... as they are on any other situation where they break their own laws (e.g. human rights, equality).
Unless it's in an international treaty they can just change the law.
Just watched Question Time. I thought Fiona Bruce did a great job keeping people on topic and ensuring the bullshit was limited. They need to stop putting comedians on the panel who offer nothing though.
Suspect Deal will prevail in the short term, but then, as in the 60's, we're get tired of being rule-takers and otherwise outsiders and want to join.
I think that the probability of Rejoining if Britain leaves depends very much on the medium-term status of the relationship. If it's close - something that resembles being in the EEA or stuck in the backstop, and especially a settled status such as the former - then the Rejoin camp is in with a fighting chance - although I reckon that negotiations on going back in couldn't even start until the EU could be satisfied that a large and durable shift in its favour had occurred amongst British public opinion. Maybe in 15 or 20 years that would be the case, but not before.
If we make a more complete break then the likelihood of going back in within any of our lifetimes seems remote. There'll be too many memories of how bad the experience of entanglement (and disentanglement) with the European project was the first time round for people to be interested in trying to get back into it again from scratch.
Agree, although we COULD get back in more quickly if we are in a 'suspended Article 50' situation.
Apropos of that, there was a suggestion upthread that if we did so, we'd have to re-elect our MEP's. Can't see Farage and his motley crew achieving what they did last time. Even their friends in the Press seem to think they're 'not up to it".
Actually, thinking about it, that might be an answer. Either a Coupon election, with Remainer candidates with cross party publicity, or a formal Remain slate. Could result in a Remain majority among Brit MEP's. Could go the other way of course, but I'm not sure UKIP's current structure is up to managing it.
I'd have thought UKIP would have a great time with the EU elections. Having them would demonstrate that the government had failed in its commitment to leave.
Half the current stack of UKIP MEPs will be standing for other parties so it would get very People’s Front of Judea.
Suspect Deal will prevail in the short term, but then, as in the 60's, we're get tired of being rule-takers and otherwise outsiders and want to join.
I think that the probability of Rejoining if Britain leaves depends very much on the medium-term status of the relationship. If it's close - something that resembles being in the EEA or stuck in the backstop, and especially a settled status such as the former - then the Rejoin camp is in with a fighting chance - although I reckon that negotiations on going back in couldn't even start until the EU could be satisfied that a large and durable shift in its favour had occurred amongst British public opinion. Maybe in 15 or 20 years that would be the case, but not before.
If we make a more complete break then the likelihood of going back in within any of our lifetimes seems remote. There'll be too many memories of how bad the experience of entanglement (and disentanglement) with the European project was the first time round for people to be interested in trying to get back into it again from scratch.
Agree, although we COULD get back in more quickly if we are in a 'suspended Article 50' situation.
Apropos of that, there was a suggestion upthread that if we did so, we'd have to re-elect our MEP's. Can't see Farage and his motley crew achieving what they did last time. Even their friends in the Press seem to think they're 'not up to it".
Actually, thinking about it, that might be an answer. Either a Coupon election, with Remainer candidates with cross party publicity, or a formal Remain slate. Could result in a Remain majority among Brit MEP's. Could go the other way of course, but I'm not sure UKIP's current structure is up to managing it.
I'd have thought UKIP would have a great time with the EU elections. Having them would demonstrate that the government had failed in its commitment to leave.
Half the current stack of UKIP MEPs will be standing for other parties so it would get very People’s Front of Judea.
I wonder if that would change if Farage got involved again.
Assuming 22 weeks is the minimum time a referendum can be arranged in, according to the UCL constitution unit's research, that would mean we'd be looking at a referendum end of June, and provisional departure end of September, assuming the EU will grant us a six month extension to A50.
That long? Oh god. I was assuming that the Euro elections in May means an extension can only be for a couple of months and therefore we'd need to really pull our finger out.
Suspect Deal will prevail in the short term, but then, as in the 60's, we're get tired of being rule-takers and otherwise outsiders and want to join.
I think that the probability of Rejoining if Britain leaves depends very much on the medium-term status of the relationship. If it's close - something that resembles being in the EEA or stuck in the backstop, and especially a settled status such as the former - then the Rejoin camp is in with a fighting chance - although I reckon that negotiations on going back in couldn't even start until the EU could be satisfied that a large and durable shift in its favour had occurred amongst British public opinion. Maybe in 15 or 20 years that would be the case, but not before.
If we make a more complete break then the likelihood of going back in within any of our lifetimes seems remote. There'll be too many memories of how bad the experience of entanglement (and disentanglement) with the European project was the first time round for people to be interested in trying to get back into it again from scratch.
Agree, although we COULD get back in more quickly if we are in a 'suspended Article 50' situation.
Apropos of that, there was a suggestion upthread that if we did so, we'd have to re-elect our MEP's. Can't see Farage and his motley crew achieving what they did last time. Even their friends in the Press seem to think they're 'not up to it".
Actually, thinking about it, that might be an answer. Either a Coupon election, with Remainer candidates with cross party publicity, or a formal Remain slate. Could result in a Remain majority among Brit MEP's. Could go the other way of course, but I'm not sure UKIP's current structure is up to managing it.
I'd have thought UKIP would have a great time with the EU elections. Having them would demonstrate that the government had failed in its commitment to leave.
Half the current stack of UKIP MEPs will be standing for other parties so it would get very People’s Front of Judea.
I wonder if that would change if Farage got involved again.
Nigel Farage? I am not so sure he will appeal to people since he was pictured in Trump Tower with the POTUS Elect. Aaron Banks is also in the picture with his alleged dealings with Russia. The optics are terrible to use a well worn phrase!
Comments
A German politician has left the far-right Alternative for Germany to set up a new party with a logo that uses a symbol adopted as a secret sign by Austrian Nazis in the 1930s.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/11/new-far-right-german-party-adopts-former-secret-nazi-symbol
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/former-soldier-takes-down-three-13842564
https://www.pressreader.com/uk/scottish-daily-mail/20190111/281479277562629
Like James Dornan for example.
PS; Can't read the 'press reader' feature and anyway if it's the Mail it won't be sympathetic to the Nat's.
If we make a more complete break then the likelihood of going back in within any of our lifetimes seems remote. There'll be too many memories of how bad the experience of entanglement (and disentanglement) with the European project was the first time round for people to be interested in trying to get back into it again from scratch.
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/caroline-lucas-remain-campaign-free-movement_uk_5c3787f0e4b045f6768a09cb?ncid=other_twitter_cooo9wqtham&utm_campaign=share_twitter
So there we are, both the remotely feasible formulations for another EU referendum ruled out.
I'm happy as larry with that.
Apropos of that, there was a suggestion upthread that if we did so, we'd have to re-elect our MEP's. Can't see Farage and his motley crew achieving what they did last time. Even their friends in the Press seem to think they're 'not up to it".
Actually, thinking about it, that might be an answer. Either a Coupon election, with Remainer candidates with cross party publicity, or a formal Remain slate. Could result in a Remain majority among Brit MEP's.
Could go the other way of course, but I'm not sure UKIP's current structure is up to managing it.
I would be much more interested if we had regular debate shows with chancellor vs shadows etc.
Similar dynamics to the Meaningful Vote in parliament.
Of course, none of this does anything to remedy the other problem: that the audience will consist only of people who are willing to travel miles to sit in a draughty hall listening to politicians on a Thursday evening - and will probably, therefore, be comprised disproportionately of those who are the loudest and the most extreme in their opinions.
They are heading for a big disappointment when no deal is stopped