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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why the Brexit divisions are here to stay

SystemSystem Posts: 11,007
edited January 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why the Brexit divisions are here to stay

When you stop and think about it, voting is a very low information form of communication. We get nothing about the certainty of the voter’s view, nothing about the enthusiasm of the voter, nothing about the considerations that led the voter to that view. All we get is a single recorded choice.

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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,321
    edited January 2019
    Interesting article but I'm not sure it's correct. There's a reason why party polling is so stable. The landscape is dominated by Brexit, and people see Brexit as very important but not really a party issue, partly because neither party is taking a strong united stand - notably, though, the LibDems, who *are* taking a strong and united stand, are still struggling to reach double figures. It's seen a bit like a tsunami - very serious, likely to cause damage, but not relevant to voting.

    Nor are Labour party members nearly as engaged in this as the Guardian coverage would suggest. It's fairly easy to get a CLP resolution through saying we'd like a referendum etc., as actual pro-Leave sentiment in the party is very weak. But of the literally hundreds of members who I'm in intermittent contact with, precisely one has said that if Corbyn doesn't take a strong stand then he might not renew. That would change if Labour actually endorsed Leave in a referendum, but that won't happen. See the polling on the last thread for the various scenarios.

    It's correct that the wave of Corbyn enthusiasm has subsided, but that's for other reasons - members feel he's not really cutting through on other issues. They still mostly like him, but are getting impatient to see a breakthrough.
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    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Good article, but I don’t agree with its conclusions.

    If we leave, I expect support for Rejoin to be 20-30% of the electorate for the foreseeable future. Enough to cause a lot of noise, and possibly capture the Labour Party, but not enough for an election-winning majority.

    If we Remain after a second referendum, I would expect support for Leave to settle around 40% before declining in future years. The sense that victory has been stolen will make the process of reconciliation slower.

    If we Remain without a referendum, all bets are off.
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