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SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited January 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Now what?

There are no good options from now on, no cost-free ones, anyway. There never were. If this point had been made 2½ years ago – and indeed at any point thereafter – we might not be where we are now.  So now what?

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Comments

  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    325-306 - I was expecting 325-308. Two more ex-Labourites abstaining?
  • Nothing has changed?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    Things beginning to move now. That's what.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Wasn't that a foolish move by Corbyn? He seems to have clutched defeat from the jaws of victory
  • Nothing has changed?

    Nothing has changed! Nothing has changed!:lol:
  • So at least 8 non-Tories supported the govt.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    So at least 8 non-Tories supported the govt.

    the tory scum!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,091
    These putative talks will surely lead to extension of A50
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Scott_P said:
    That's not within her ability to rule out. It's an outcome from failure to agree, not necessarily a choice.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    IanB2 said:

    These putative talks will surely lead to extension of A50

    Extension will, unless a referendum is a part of it, lead inexorably to revocation.
  • dodradedodrade Posts: 595

    So at least 8 non-Tories supported the govt.

    If the DUP had voted for the motion the government would have lost by one vote.

    Did Tulip Siddiq do a "Bob Roberts" tonight as well?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    O/T

    It's worth repeating that there are a number of options available to those still seeking to engineer Remain - or, at the very least, avert No Deal - but, of course, their efforts will come to nothing if they can't find a majority in Parliament for any single one of these outcomes (and, if necessary, force it through against the will of Theresa May.)

    Brexiteers are frequently criticised for not having a plan, but if their opponents don't come up with a plan pretty soon then, as @Cyclefree reminds us, the Hard Brexit backers will get everything they want.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    edited January 2019
    Displacement activity is, as cyclefree suggests, a big part of what is happening.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    So who were the 3 or 4 abstainers from the Opposition side?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Presumably Frank Field and Ivan Lewis abstained.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Chances of this rabble of opposition agreeing to support any different May deal which the Con party would swallow is zero.

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    Thanks @Cyclefree - I think 1 is the better option.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    As Richard Nabavi pointed out earlier, for Parliament to come to an agreement, options have to be taken off the table.

    Corbyn has removed a snap election off the table. That's good, because one fewer option means more scope for an agreement.

    It does, however, mean that Jeremy Corbyn will, at long, long, looooong last, need a Brexit policy.
  • 325+306 = 631

    12 non-voters?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    Presumably Frank Field and Ivan Lewis abstained.

    Field voted Aye according to the commons votes app.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,091
    edited January 2019
    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    These putative talks will surely lead to extension of A50

    Extension will, unless a referendum is a part of it, lead inexorably to revocation.
    Quite possibly. But it's the one thing (probably the only thing) that the government can concede whilst clinging to all other respects of its existing position. We also know it's in the government's interest, since their preparations are woeful and there is a shedload of legislative work that cannot be completed by the end of March.

    Therefore it suits HMG to be 'forced' to seek more time. Probably until the eve of the Euro elections, at least to begin with.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Sandpit said:

    So who were the 3 or 4 abstainers from the Opposition side?

    There must've been three for these numbers to stack up, of which one was Woodcock. Also...

    Presumably Frank Field and Ivan Lewis abstained.

  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    Presumably Frank Field and Ivan Lewis abstained.

    Woodcock and Lewis don’t appear on the app - so presumably abstained.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    These Ind Lab MPs now become absolutely critical because there is a real chance that the Govt might be able to survive without the DUP - especially if they can pick up Peterborough.
  • So, after months of complaining that Theresa May has been inflexible in her red lines, Labour and the LibDems are trying to impose a logically-impossible red line before even beginning discussions?

    This isn't starting well, and that leads to No Deal.

    Were these opposition parties inspired by the Irish killing the deal in order to ensure it wasn't killed?
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    THE DEVIL'S RATIO RETURNETH

    Confidence: 52%
    No Confidence: 48%
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    edited January 2019
    Did anyone else detect a softening of tone, at least, if not in the actual words? From PM that is.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,761
    Mortimer said:

    Presumably Frank Field and Ivan Lewis abstained.

    Woodcock and Lewis don’t appear on the app - so presumably abstained.
    Paul Flynn? If he's too ill to vote for this that suggests a further by-election is imminent for rather a sad reason (for all I don't like the man).
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    dixiedean said:

    Did anyone else detect a softening of tone, at least, if not in the actual words? From PM that is.

    Not from Labour, Libs and SNP.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688

    As Richard Nabavi pointed out earlier, for Parliament to come to an agreement, options have to be taken off the table.

    Corbyn has removed a snap election off the table. That's good, because one fewer option means more scope for an agreement.

    It does, however, mean that Jeremy Corbyn will, at long, long, looooong last, need a Brexit policy.

    I don't really understand why Corbyn didn't just support May's deal, but say it was awful. He'd then have passed his no-confidence motion, and there would be a GE.

    I think that has to be his plan before 29mar. He simply doesn't care about the EU deals or otherwise. He's a revolutionary - he wants us wearing Chairman Corbyn hats. Happily he's a total idiot too, and didn't see his chance.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,091

    THE DEVIL'S RATIO RETURNETH

    Confidence: 52%
    No Confidence: 48%

    I foresee another vote
  • THE DEVIL'S RATIO RETURNETH

    Confidence: 52%
    No Confidence: 48%

    Welsh Referendum, 1997 =

    Devolution: 50.3%
    No devolution: 49.7%
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,349
    edited January 2019
    The main problem with Mrs May's deal is the lack of certainty. When do we actually Leave the EU, if at all? If someone can point me to this date, I'd be grateful.

    But the bright spot in all this is the comedians who want a re-run referendum with the choices being … May's deal (Stay in the EU) versus Remain in the EU.

    So unbeknownst to us, we held the first leg of a referendum and eliminated the winner.
  • kingbongokingbongo Posts: 393
    Roger said:

    Wasn't that a foolish move by Corbyn? He seems to have clutched defeat from the jaws of victory

    he has decades of experience at it
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    There are four abstentions:

    Woodcock and Lewis
    Presumably Flynn?
    Who is the fourth?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    May should suggest that if she is ruling out no deal to have talks then the opposition rule out a second referendum.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,081
    So, after a seismic 48 hours...Nothing has changed.

    The stalemate continues.

    At least we had something to bet on, and I am £100 better off.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    So he needs 10 votes to switch. Usually not close, but Theresa May is capable of delivering that.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,588
    ydoethur said:

    Mortimer said:

    Presumably Frank Field and Ivan Lewis abstained.

    Woodcock and Lewis don’t appear on the app - so presumably abstained.
    Paul Flynn? If he's too ill to vote for this that suggests a further by-election is imminent for rather a sad reason (for all I don't like the man).
    Not sure Newport West is a nailed on Tory gain.
  • dixiedean said:

    Did anyone else detect a softening of tone, at least, if not in the actual words? From PM that is.

    TM will soften as time goes on but needs to be able to take her brexiteers with her until or unless she can come up with a better solution
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited January 2019
    TGOHF said:

    May should suggest that if she is ruling out no deal to have talks then the opposition rule out a second referendum.

    The problem is that no-deal can’t be ruled out. It’s what happens by default if nothing else is agreed.

    As many others have said, people need to quickly decide what they do want, not what they don’t. Otherwise it’s going to be no deal.

    Matt, as always, got it spot on the other day.
    https://twitter.com/MattCartoonist/status/1084867777679294464
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Omnium said:


    I don't really understand why Corbyn didn't just support May's deal, but say it was awful. He'd then have passed his no-confidence motion, and there would be a GE.

    Maximum chaos is Corbyn's goal. If by some unforeseen miracle, May is able to find a compromise the House and the EU will agree on, the DUP will crash May's government and Corbyn can try again.

    There's no limit on how often Corbyn can call for a VONC, but in the aftermath of a MV passing the house is the moment when one will most likely succeed.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    MikeL said:

    There are four abstentions:

    Woodcock and Lewis
    Presumably Flynn?
    Who is the fourth?

    Onasanya.

    So, if Tories flip Peterborough and lose the DUP it would be a tie?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    edited January 2019
    dixiedean said:

    Did anyone else detect a softening of tone, at least, if not in the actual words? From PM that is.

    Now the vote has been won she can bare her teeth a bit.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    CD13 said:

    The main problem with Mrs May's deal is the lack of certainty. When do we actually Leave the EU, if at all? If someone can point me to this date, I'd be grateful.

    Eh? The one thing the deal unequivocally delivers is that we leave the EU. No mealy mouthed complaints about the transition period being us too closely aligned, or the eventual end state being too closely aligned, changes that under the deal we are legally out 29th March 2019.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,414
    MikeL said:

    These Ind Lab MPs now become absolutely critical because there is a real chance that the Govt might be able to survive without the DUP - especially if they can pick up Peterborough.

    In normaltimes a tie would mean Bercow voting in favour of the government.

    However god knows if he actually would.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Roger said:

    Wasn't that a foolish move by Corbyn? He seems to have clutched defeat from the jaws of victory

    He had no choice. It Thatch a fair few attempts. You only have to win once. As soon as May climbs off the fence off we go again.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Corbyn seemed pretty explicit that Labour will not support May's plan B unless she takes no deal off the table.

    That doesn't sound like a softening tone to me, that sounds like battle lines being drawn.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    kingbongo said:

    Roger said:

    Wasn't that a foolish move by Corbyn? He seems to have clutched defeat from the jaws of victory

    he has decades of experience at it
    Untrue, he never had jaws of victory before.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961

    O/T

    It's worth repeating that there are a number of options available to those still seeking to engineer Remain - or, at the very least, avert No Deal - but, of course, their efforts will come to nothing if they can't find a majority in Parliament for any single one of these outcomes (and, if necessary, force it through against the will of Theresa May.)

    Brexiteers are frequently criticised for not having a plan, but if their opponents don't come up with a plan pretty soon then, as @Cyclefree reminds us, the Hard Brexit backers will get everything they want.

    Brexiteers have never needed a plan. Just have their opponents to fail to coalesce around one - and they win.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,761

    ydoethur said:

    Mortimer said:

    Presumably Frank Field and Ivan Lewis abstained.

    Woodcock and Lewis don’t appear on the app - so presumably abstained.
    Paul Flynn? If he's too ill to vote for this that suggests a further by-election is imminent for rather a sad reason (for all I don't like the man).
    Not sure Newport West is a nailed on Tory gain.
    No, although they're not ridiculously far behind and Flynn was quite popular there. That said, I would be surprised if Labour lost it.

    I was just commenting that before we all get carried away it's not just Peterborough that's got a looming by-election and that in itself would affect the balance of the vote.
  • dotsdots Posts: 615
    Wot now? I say look at how we got here. To be fair to May, Cammo’s policy this will be settled once and for all with remain/leave referendum looks worst decision ever in British politics, putting out a fire by pouring petrol all over it. And some people think it’s good idea to have another one, the fire can be put out by adding even more petrol?

    Correct me where I’m wrong but to all politicians today Brexit means blendsof component parts that makesup EU membership. I think I am intelligent person, but I clearly misunderstood the referendum question. I thought it was “in all these component parts, or out of all these component parts”. That is why to say all parties campaigned last GE to implement Brexit so should get on and do so is most meaningless statement anyone can say, because at no point has there been clarity and agreement what it is they actually promised to deliver!

    I’ll give you example of what I mean and demonstrate what is wrong. What if the binary question had been “Remain as we are, or move to FTA” would this wording have provided better clarity as what it is and how to deliver brexit?

    Whether what is Brexit is clear or not, what is role of parliament in delivering ref result? should parliament have a meaningful say, especially to fill in variances where voters were only asked to provide one dimensional answer to multifaceted outcome? We traditionally have representative democracy, a conviction it helps us achieve strong outcomes, strong as in consensual, strong as in delivering results. Let’s remind ourselves what representative democracy is. Edmund Burke (who some call Father of Conservatism): Your representative owes you, not his industry only, but his judgment; he betrays instead of serving you if he sacrifices it to your opinion. But Voxpop voters post ref what you hear is, we told them what to do, they should represent us by getting on and doing it. As both executive and parliament argue for authority to shape brexit, they have been cuffing each other with two different forms of democracy - at what point have politicians, parliament and the public actually been on same page what Brexit is, and how referendum result works alongside representative democracy?

    This lack of clarity is basis of the gridlock, not normal party politics. with all this lack of clarity we can go round and round and remain the laughing stock of the world for ever. But if you listen out to the media, read political blogs, looking for this lack of clarity becoming addressed, it’s not. A crisis not going away until it is.
  • Still struggling to see how we avoid No Deal.

    Those who claim it is now effectively off the table are making the huge error of believing that when push comes to shove the government, the opposition and backbench MPs will put the national interest first. However, it is clear that a large number of MPs on front and back benches are absolutely not prepared to do that.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    Omnium said:

    As Richard Nabavi pointed out earlier, for Parliament to come to an agreement, options have to be taken off the table.

    Corbyn has removed a snap election off the table. That's good, because one fewer option means more scope for an agreement.

    It does, however, mean that Jeremy Corbyn will, at long, long, looooong last, need a Brexit policy.

    I don't really understand why Corbyn didn't just support May's deal, but say it was awful. He'd then have passed his no-confidence motion, and there would be a GE.

    I think that has to be his plan before 29mar. He simply doesn't care about the EU deals or otherwise. He's a revolutionary - he wants us wearing Chairman Corbyn hats. Happily he's a total idiot too, and didn't see his chance.
    Because. To state the obvious. Corbyn does not command the loyalty of his MPs. Had he done as you suggest the deal would have still fallen in all probability due to a massive Labour and Tory rebellion. What is more he would have faced an instant leadership challenge with no certainty of winning this time.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,572
    Scott_P said:
    That would amount to the Government reentering talks with the EU on the understanding that the UK would either Leave on terms dictated by the EU or otherwise Remain.

    The EU would offer nothing and we would Remain. No point even in restarting talks really.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,091

    O/T

    It's worth repeating that there are a number of options available to those still seeking to engineer Remain - or, at the very least, avert No Deal - but, of course, their efforts will come to nothing if they can't find a majority in Parliament for any single one of these outcomes (and, if necessary, force it through against the will of Theresa May.)

    Brexiteers are frequently criticised for not having a plan, but if their opponents don't come up with a plan pretty soon then, as @Cyclefree reminds us, the Hard Brexit backers will get everything they want.

    Brexiteers have never needed a plan. Just have their opponents to fail to coalesce around one - and they win.
    And what a Pyrrhic victory that would be.
  • Foxy said:

    So, after a seismic 48 hours...Nothing has changed.

    The stalemate continues.

    At least we had something to bet on, and I am £100 better off.

    There is no doubt that TM legacy will be 'nothing has changed' but no matter your politics you have to be amazed at her resilience and dedication to public service
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    CD13 said:

    The main problem with Mrs May's deal is the lack of certainty. When do we actually Leave the EU, if at all? If someone can point me to this date, I'd be grateful.

    But the bright spot in all this is the comedians who want a re-run referendum with the choices being … May's deal (Stay in the EU) versus Remain in the EU.

    So unbeknownst to us, we held the first leg of a referendum and eliminated the winner.

    The 52% will be so happy to learn that. They are absolved from any part of the Brexit process henceforth.....
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    Foxy said:

    So, after a seismic 48 hours...Nothing has changed.

    The stalemate continues.

    At least we had something to bet on, and I am £100 better off.

    There is no doubt that TM legacy will be 'nothing has changed' but no matter your politics you have to be amazed at her resilience and dedication to public service
    She's autistic. That's all.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,761

    Foxy said:

    So, after a seismic 48 hours...Nothing has changed.

    The stalemate continues.

    At least we had something to bet on, and I am £100 better off.

    There is no doubt that TM legacy will be 'nothing has changed' but no matter your politics you have to be amazed at her resilience and dedication to public service
    Her legacy will be that much changed suddenly and dramatically as we left the EU.

    But 'nothing has changed' will definitely be her epitaph.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Foxy said:

    So, after a seismic 48 hours...Nothing has changed.

    The stalemate continues.

    At least we had something to bet on, and I am £100 better off.

    There is no doubt that TM legacy will be 'nothing has changed' but no matter your politics you have to be amazed at her resilience and dedication to public service
    You say that as if it’s a good thing.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    edited January 2019

    MikeL said:

    These Ind Lab MPs now become absolutely critical because there is a real chance that the Govt might be able to survive without the DUP - especially if they can pick up Peterborough.

    In normaltimes a tie would mean Bercow voting in favour of the government.

    However god knows if he actually would.
    FWIW, take the 325-306 result but move one more Labour vote into the Tory column and you get to 326-305 - a majority of 21, or a majority of 1 if the DUP joined the Opposition, or a tie if Paul Flynn was well enough to come and vote.

    In practical terms the Government still daren't dispense with the services of the DUP under such circumstances. It would only take one of the ex-Labourites to move from abstain back to voting against them, or one of their own MPs to fall ill, or Bercow to find a pretext for dispensing with convention and they'd be out.

    On the matter of Peterborough, if there is to be a by-election I'm still hoping that Corbyn will move it be held on March 29th.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Mortimer said:

    MikeL said:

    There are four abstentions:

    Woodcock and Lewis
    Presumably Flynn?
    Who is the fourth?

    Onasanya.

    So, if Tories flip Peterborough and lose the DUP it would be a tie?
    Yes, Peterborough could be massively key to the Brexit outcome now. If she ends up in the big house it might just be enough for the gov to squeak a confidence vote without the DUP. If there’s a quick by-election and the Cons pick it up, then even better.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    IanB2 said:

    O/T

    It's worth repeating that there are a number of options available to those still seeking to engineer Remain - or, at the very least, avert No Deal - but, of course, their efforts will come to nothing if they can't find a majority in Parliament for any single one of these outcomes (and, if necessary, force it through against the will of Theresa May.)

    Brexiteers are frequently criticised for not having a plan, but if their opponents don't come up with a plan pretty soon then, as @Cyclefree reminds us, the Hard Brexit backers will get everything they want.

    Brexiteers have never needed a plan. Just have their opponents to fail to coalesce around one - and they win.
    And what a Pyrrhic victory that would be.
    What an epic fail that would be - by Remainers.
  • Still struggling to see how we avoid No Deal.

    Those who claim it is now effectively off the table are making the huge error of believing that when push comes to shove the government, the opposition and backbench MPs will put the national interest first. However, it is clear that a large number of MPs on front and back benches are absolutely not prepared to do that.

    It's not so much that, the problem is that what they each perceive as the national interest is not the same. To avoid No Deal they need to agree on something, but they've already rejected the most obvious thing, and it's jolly hard to see any alternative route which they could agree on.

    The financial markets are significantly underestimating the No Deal risk, in my view.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Omnium said:


    I don't really understand why Corbyn didn't just support May's deal, but say it was awful. He'd then have passed his no-confidence motion, and there would be a GE.

    Because the balancing act he has been on is to avoid upsetting labourleavers too much, while letting the remainer leaning MPs in his party keep the membership happy by obviously seeking to remain. If he actually causes Brexit those remain members and voters might at last react and go elsewhere. If Tory brexit happens, well, he'll say he tried to fight it at least and would have delivered something much better, while the Starmer's of the world will say labour would have stopped it all if they could have.

    Since a GE out of this chaos is not unlikely anyway, there's no political upside to passing brexit.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    edited January 2019
    Rees-Mogg just confirmed to Andrew Neil that he'll support Govt in a future VONC whatever May does in the Brexit negotiations.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,349
    Mr kl4,

    "we are legally out 29th March 2019."

    So no more freedom of movement unless Parliament reinstates it? Boston will be happy. Why then do I feel a 'but' coming on?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    If one is speeding towards an oncoming lorry, and 2 passengers think we should swerve to the left and 2 to the right, what is the responsible driver to do? Especially when a fifth is urging you to speed up and keep straight on.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Still struggling to see how we avoid No Deal.

    Those who claim it is now effectively off the table are making the huge error of believing that when push comes to shove the government, the opposition and backbench MPs will put the national interest first. However, it is clear that a large number of MPs on front and back benches are absolutely not prepared to do that.

    It's not so much that, the problem is that what they each perceive as the national interest is not the same. To avoid No Deal they need to agree on something, but they've already rejected the most obvious thing, and it's jolly hard to see any alternative route which they could agree on.

    The financial markets are significantly underestimating the No Deal risk, in my view.
    One of the hedgies from "The big short" was on R4 this morning - said he was shorting Uk banks as the establishment were underestimating no deal as the idea was so abhorrent to them that they were closing their minds to the likelyhood.

  • Foxy said:

    So, after a seismic 48 hours...Nothing has changed.

    The stalemate continues.

    At least we had something to bet on, and I am £100 better off.

    There is no doubt that TM legacy will be 'nothing has changed' but no matter your politics you have to be amazed at her resilience and dedication to public service
    She's autistic. That's all.
    Can you provide a link to your allegation
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    MikeL said:

    Rees-Mogg just confirmed to Andrew Neil that he'll support Govt in a future VONC whatever May does in the Brexit negotiations.

    That's because Mogg is the remain that dare not speak its name.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,081
    Sandpit said:

    Mortimer said:

    MikeL said:

    There are four abstentions:

    Woodcock and Lewis
    Presumably Flynn?
    Who is the fourth?

    Onasanya.

    So, if Tories flip Peterborough and lose the DUP it would be a tie?
    Yes, Peterborough could be massively key to the Brexit outcome now. If she ends up in the big house it might just be enough for the gov to squeak a confidence vote without the DUP. If there’s a quick by-election and the Cons pick it up, then even better.
    It wasn't the DUP that lost May's deal. It was her own party.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    CD13 said:

    Mr kl4,

    "we are legally out 29th March 2019."

    So no more freedom of movement unless Parliament reinstates it? Boston will be happy. Why then do I feel a 'but' coming on?

    You asked when we would leave the EU under the deal, and the answer is simple. If it is an unacceptable form of leaving that's a totally different question, but what it is not is not leaving.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Scott_P said:
    Purity to the cause will always win through for Corbyn.
  • Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    So, after a seismic 48 hours...Nothing has changed.

    The stalemate continues.

    At least we had something to bet on, and I am £100 better off.

    There is no doubt that TM legacy will be 'nothing has changed' but no matter your politics you have to be amazed at her resilience and dedication to public service
    You say that as if it’s a good thing.
    I do not see it as a bad attribute in any politician
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Mortimer said:

    MikeL said:

    There are four abstentions:

    Woodcock and Lewis
    Presumably Flynn?
    Who is the fourth?

    Onasanya.

    So, if Tories flip Peterborough and lose the DUP it would be a tie?
    Yes, Peterborough could be massively key to the Brexit outcome now. If she ends up in the big house it might just be enough for the gov to squeak a confidence vote without the DUP. If there’s a quick by-election and the Cons pick it up, then even better.
    It wasn't the DUP that lost May's deal. It was her own party.

    Indeed. But the DUP are going to call a VonC the day after the deal *passes*. That VonC, with the DUP against the govt, is going to be down to one vote either way. It’s down to the three or four ex-Lab independent MPs, some of whom may be unable to vote.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,349
    Mr kl4,

    So if we bring in a form of immigration control and start pursuing trade deals elsewhere on April 1st, the EU can do nothing but look on. After all, they can't fine a non-member, can they? Wouldn't that be an act of war?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    So, Labour MPs. No General Election. No second referendum. Hatred for No Deal. Constituency voted to Leave.

    Pop Quiz: What do you do?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,745

    325+306 = 631

    12 non-voters?

    From 650, deduct the 7 SF members, the Speaker and the three Deputy Speakers (2 Labour and 1 Conservative) so that takes us to 639 voting members.

    Nominally, CON (316) plus DUP (10) should have 326 leaving 313 "opposition" MPs but that includes 6 ex-Labour MP, Sylvia Harmon and Stephen Lloyd who are the 8 "Independent" MPs.

    As there is apparently no pairing, the CON-DUP total looks light by one but if we exclude the two tellers that would suggest one Independent MP voted with the Government.

    On the Opposition side, the affiliated MP total is 305 so assuming two tellers again, three of the Independents must have voted with the Opposition so four Independents must have abstained or been absent.

    No doubt, details will be forthcoming.
  • TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:
    Purity to the cause will always win through for Corbyn.
    They do not have a clue. TM invites them to talks and they say no

    At this rate voters are going to give up on labour and especially Corbyn
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Unlike Lewis and Woodcock who actively chose to abstain tonight, and I say this with a good deal of kindness, but Flynn really needs to resign his seat.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    So, after a seismic 48 hours...Nothing has changed.

    The stalemate continues.

    At least we had something to bet on, and I am £100 better off.

    There is no doubt that TM legacy will be 'nothing has changed' but no matter your politics you have to be amazed at her resilience and dedication to public service
    You say that as if it’s a good thing.
    I do not see it as a bad attribute in any politician
    It has a flip side. Hanging on too long and seeing yourself as unique source of insights blocking fresh thinking is not a good thing.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    MikeL said:

    Rees-Mogg just confirmed to Andrew Neil that he'll support Govt in a future VONC whatever May does in the Brexit negotiations.

    Of course he will, as will every MP wishing to remain a member of the Conservative party.

    This is the root of why the FTPA is such a problem: a decade ago, last night’s vote would have been made an issue of confidence, the equivalent of a four line whip, and would probably have passed.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,081

    Foxy said:

    So, after a seismic 48 hours...Nothing has changed.

    The stalemate continues.

    At least we had something to bet on, and I am £100 better off.

    There is no doubt that TM legacy will be 'nothing has changed' but no matter your politics you have to be amazed at her resilience and dedication to public service
    No, I am not.

    In this I agree with Tom Watson*. She has had her chance and has blown it. she has no new ideas or way forward, and is not willing to bring others into the discussions. By refusing to go, she has become perhaps the biggest obstacle to progress.

    *under-rated as next Lab Leader by the bookies, he is after all the Deputy Leader, so very likely to be acting leader for the next contest.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    7 Sinn Fein
    4 Speakers + Deputies
    4 Tellers

    So the most any vote can get is to sum to 635 right now.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited January 2019
    Scott_P said:
    Not exactly surprising. It isn't that stupid from Corbyn, as he can now blame the Tories for everything that happens, and the cult will still convince themselves he is doing everything to stop Brexit.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    Foxy said:

    So, after a seismic 48 hours...Nothing has changed.

    The stalemate continues.

    At least we had something to bet on, and I am £100 better off.

    There is no doubt that TM legacy will be 'nothing has changed' but no matter your politics you have to be amazed at her resilience and dedication to public service
    She's autistic. That's all.
    Can you provide a link to your allegation
    She's described "as having no friends" by michael gove
    People have said she lacks warmth and personality on first meeting.
    She even has the autistic facial structure, wide eyes and cat face.
    It has variously been said that she is ‘fundamentally unknowable’, ‘aloof’, ’reticent’, ‘self-contained’ and ‘sphinx like’.

    She shows every single trait of somebody with autism. Her absurd, self-defeating stubbornness, secrecy and absolute imperviousness to either shame or change are all just part of May's neurological makeup.

    Theresa May is neurologically incapable of the task to which we have set her. In many ways it's cruel, because we're torturing a helpless innocent.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    CD13 said:

    Mr kl4,

    So if we bring in a form of immigration control and start pursuing trade deals elsewhere on April 1st, the EU can do nothing but look on. After all, they can't fine a non-member, can they? Wouldn't that be an act of war?

    Is there an underestimation for "no deal" as March 29th approaches ? Voters may begin to think "f**k it - lets end this nonsense for good" ?

  • dodradedodrade Posts: 595

    Foxy said:

    So, after a seismic 48 hours...Nothing has changed.

    The stalemate continues.

    At least we had something to bet on, and I am £100 better off.

    There is no doubt that TM legacy will be 'nothing has changed' but no matter your politics you have to be amazed at her resilience and dedication to public service
    She's autistic. That's all.
    Can you provide a link to your allegation
    At the risk of sounding like a snowflake the increasing use of "autistic" in a pejorative context (first used against Gordon Brown I believe) is not a welcome trend.
  • stodge said:

    325+306 = 631

    12 non-voters?

    From 650, deduct the 7 SF members, the Speaker and the three Deputy Speakers (2 Labour and 1 Conservative) so that takes us to 639 voting members.

    Nominally, CON (316) plus DUP (10) should have 326 leaving 313 "opposition" MPs but that includes 6 ex-Labour MP, Sylvia Harmon and Stephen Lloyd who are the 8 "Independent" MPs.

    As there is apparently no pairing, the CON-DUP total looks light by one but if we exclude the two tellers that would suggest one Independent MP voted with the Government.

    On the Opposition side, the affiliated MP total is 305 so assuming two tellers again, three of the Independents must have voted with the Opposition so four Independents must have abstained or been absent.

    No doubt, details will be forthcoming.
    Lady Hermon voted with the government
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,091

    Scott_P said:
    Not exactly surprising. It isn't that stupid from Corbyn, as he can now blame the Tories for everything that happens, and the cult will still convince themselves he is doing everything to stop Brexit.
    The normal first question in such talks is "what do you want?"

    Therein lies the problem.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Pulpstar said:

    Unlike Lewis and Woodcock who actively chose to abstain tonight, and I say this with a good deal of kindness, but Flynn really needs to resign his seat.

    Do we know how sick he is? It would be sad to see a repeat of what happened in 1979, where the VonC came down to an MP who was five days from meeting his maker.
  • Same time next week for another go around?
  • Scott_P said:
    This makes absolutely no sense to me. Why not go into talks with May without pre-condition? That immediately gives Labour the moral high ground. They can then come out of them and say they were pointless because she would not budge.

  • Foxy said:

    So, after a seismic 48 hours...Nothing has changed.

    The stalemate continues.

    At least we had something to bet on, and I am £100 better off.

    There is no doubt that TM legacy will be 'nothing has changed' but no matter your politics you have to be amazed at her resilience and dedication to public service
    She's autistic. That's all.
    Can you provide a link to your allegation
    She's described "as having no friends" by michael gove
    People have said she lacks warmth and personality on first meeting.
    She even has the autistic facial structure, wide eyes and cat face.
    It has variously been said that she is ‘fundamentally unknowable’, ‘aloof’, ’reticent’, ‘self-contained’ and ‘sphinx like’.

    She shows every single trait of somebody with autism. Her absurd, self-defeating stubbornness, secrecy and absolute imperviousness to either shame or change are all just part of May's neurological makeup.

    Theresa May is neurologically incapable of the task to which we have set her. In many ways it's cruel, because we're torturing a helpless innocent.
    That is not a link to medical confirmation and without it you may want to take care in your allegations
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697

    Scott_P said:
    This makes absolutely no sense to me. Why not go into talks with May without pre-condition? That immediately gives Labour the moral high ground. They can then come out of them and say they were pointless because she would not budge.

    Because Jezza isn't interested in finding an agreement. He wants No Deal!

    Jezza has been leave for 40 years! :D
This discussion has been closed.