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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast. Deal or no deal. Plus are the Tories really ahead in the polls?

On this week’s podcast Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi discuss the fallout from a hectic week in Westminster. They ask whether a General Election, 2nd referendum or ‘no deal Brexit’ have become more or less likely and explain why politicians claiming that the Tories are ahead in the polls are not telling the full story.

Read the full story here

twistedfirestopper3

Second is the new first.

Foxy

Second, like Jezza

Scott_P

I refuse to join the thread unless the first by TSE is removed...

GIN1138

TheScreamingEagles said:

Oh go on, I'll be first.

Let's have another go...

TheScreamingEagles

Scott_P said:

I refuse to join the thread unless the first by TSE is removed...

I've removed it.

I'll call reinstate it later.

kle4

I look forward to seeing the conclusion of whether the Tories are really ahead in the polls. Personally they could be and i wouldn't believe it, I just don't see how it would maintain itself in an electoral situation when it is so riven.

twistedfirestopper3

Scott_P said:

I refuse to join the thread unless the first by TSE is removed...

Typical Remainer, always wants to revoke somat!

TheScreamingEagles

kle4 said:

I look forward to seeing the conclusion of whether the Tories are really ahead in the polls. Personally they could be and i wouldn't believe it, I just don't see how it would maintain itself in an electoral situation when it is so riven.

I think the Tories are ahead in the polls because of Mrs May's lead in the leadership ratings, however I suspect that lead would crumble during an election campaign this year as the Tories couldn't unite over Brexit.

kle4

Anazina said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1086027452273647616

Germany’s love letter to Britain up top is hackneyed but sweet. Of course, the raging europhobes on here will mock it, as they turn their backs.

I won't mock it. I just think particularly after all that has gone down it is not good for either of us to remain, not least since if we showed the slightest reticence to do what the EU by and large wanted - which we would, since we'd have millions of fuming people at us having remained - Germany and the others would return to leaking about how frustrated they are by the brits, how the brits don't understand how things are done, that the brits aren't playing ball.

I don't doubt the sincerity of many in the EU for us to remain, but I think if they stopped to think about it a bit more they'd see that it's better for the project if we are not part of them.

kle4

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scott_P said:

I refuse to join the thread unless the first by TSE is removed...

I've removed it.

I'll call reinstate it later.

Establishment fix up!

Anazina

Anyone who pays the slightest attention to opinion polls amid this fucking chaos has taken leave of their tiny mind.

TheScreamingEagles

Why oh why did Mrs May give the disgraced national security risk Liam Fox such a key Brexit job?

Dr Fox's predictions on how easy Brexit would be is up there with the plan for an Anglo-German trade deal post Brexit by David Davis.

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1086021890605502466

kle4

TheScreamingEagles said:

Why oh why did Mrs May give the disgraced national security risk such a key Brexit job?

Dr Fox's predictions on how easy Brexit would be is up there with the plan for an Anglo-German trade deal post Brexit by David Davis.

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1086021890605502466

Remember, there was plenty of discomfort when Davis, Fox and BoJo were appointed.

asjohnstone

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

I look forward to seeing the conclusion of whether the Tories are really ahead in the polls. Personally they could be and i wouldn't believe it, I just don't see how it would maintain itself in an electoral situation when it is so riven.

I think the Tories are ahead in the polls because of Mrs May's lead in the leadership ratings, however I suspect that lead would crumble during an election campaign this year as the Tories couldn't unite over Brexit.

But would Labour have the same problem ? In 2017 they could fudge it and avoid the topic to a large extent, I suspect they wouldn't get away with this trick again

kle4

Amusing start - things are gathering pace, while also being at an impasse!

TheScreamingEagles

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Why oh why did Mrs May give the disgraced national security risk such a key Brexit job?

Dr Fox's predictions on how easy Brexit would be is up there with the plan for an Anglo-German trade deal post Brexit by David Davis.

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1086021890605502466

Remember, there was plenty of discomfort when Davis, Fox and BoJo were appointed.

Kinda proves the idiocy of some Leavers that only a Brexiteer should have succeeded David Cameron.

RobD

That image haunts me.

williamglenn

kle4 said:

I don't doubt the sincerity of many in the EU for us to remain, but I think if they stopped to think about it a bit more they'd see that it's better for the project if we are not part of them.

As a counterfactual, how do you think the last 45 years would have been better for the other 27 countries currently in the EU if the UK had been outside?

Sean_F

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

I look forward to seeing the conclusion of whether the Tories are really ahead in the polls. Personally they could be and i wouldn't believe it, I just don't see how it would maintain itself in an electoral situation when it is so riven.

I think the Tories are ahead in the polls because of Mrs May's lead in the leadership ratings, however I suspect that lead would crumble during an election campaign this year as the Tories couldn't unite over Brexit.

It would probably be like one of those strange elections in the 1920's. Huge swings all over the place at constituency level.

Anazina

T

kle4 said:

Anazina said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1086027452273647616

Germany’s love letter to Britain up top is hackneyed but sweet. Of course, the raging europhobes on here will mock it, as they turn their backs.

I won't mock it. I just think particularly after all that has gone down it is not good for either of us to remain, not least since if we showed the slightest reticence to do what the EU by and large wanted - which we would, since we'd have millions of fuming people at us having remained - Germany and the others would return to leaking about how frustrated they are by the brits, how the brits don't understand how things are done, that the brits aren't playing ball.

I don't doubt the sincerity of many in the EU for us to remain, but I think if they stopped to think about it a bit more they'd see that it's better for the project if we are not part of them.

I travel and do business with Germans, French, Spanish and Austrians. I can tell you that everyone I have spoken to thinks it a tragic split. They are right.

kle4

williamglenn said:

kle4 said:

I don't doubt the sincerity of many in the EU for us to remain, but I think if they stopped to think about it a bit more they'd see that it's better for the project if we are not part of them.

As a counterfactual, how do you think the last 45 years would have been better for the other 27 countries currently in the EU if the UK had been outside?

I don't necessarily think that. But I think it would be worse for them from now on, and has not been as good as they would have liked recently, because we are, as they continually moaned, obstructive and difficult. If we stay they'll only complain more once the euphoria wears off.

williamglenn

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

I look forward to seeing the conclusion of whether the Tories are really ahead in the polls. Personally they could be and i wouldn't believe it, I just don't see how it would maintain itself in an electoral situation when it is so riven.

I think the Tories are ahead in the polls because of Mrs May's lead in the leadership ratings, however I suspect that lead would crumble during an election campaign this year as the Tories couldn't unite over Brexit.

The difference is that in 2017 May was still largely an unknown quantity as PM. Now people have seem plenty of proof that she's a maddeningly difficult woman who nonetheless has enormous reserves of stamina and tenacity. I don't think her ratings would be as vulnerable a second time unless she does something stupid.

kle4

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

I look forward to seeing the conclusion of whether the Tories are really ahead in the polls. Personally they could be and i wouldn't believe it, I just don't see how it would maintain itself in an electoral situation when it is so riven.

I think the Tories are ahead in the polls because of Mrs May's lead in the leadership ratings, however I suspect that lead would crumble during an election campaign this year as the Tories couldn't unite over Brexit.

It would probably be like one of those strange elections in the 1920's. Huge swings all over the place at constituency level.

Scotland since 2015 then?

Sean_F

williamglenn said:

kle4 said:

I don't doubt the sincerity of many in the EU for us to remain, but I think if they stopped to think about it a bit more they'd see that it's better for the project if we are not part of them.

As a counterfactual, how do you think the last 45 years would have been better for the other 27 countries currently in the EU if the UK had been outside?

They would have been much happier, without us, IMHO.

williamglenn

kle4 said:

williamglenn said:

kle4 said:

I don't doubt the sincerity of many in the EU for us to remain, but I think if they stopped to think about it a bit more they'd see that it's better for the project if we are not part of them.

As a counterfactual, how do you think the last 45 years would have been better for the other 27 countries currently in the EU if the UK had been outside?

I don't necessarily think that. But I think it would be worse for them from now on, and has not been as good as they would have liked recently, because we are, as they continually moaned, obstructive and difficult. If we stay they'll only complain more once the euphoria wears off.

Doesn't that depend on the assumption that the UK will not have been profoundly changed by the experience of the last few years?

Nigelb

kle4 said:

I look forward to seeing the conclusion of whether the Tories are really ahead in the polls. Personally they could be and i wouldn't believe it, I just don't see how it would maintain itself in an electoral situation when it is so riven.

I think any putative election would be determined more by the circumstances than any positive feelings about either party, which polls show to be at a remarkably low level. (They also show a notable enthusiasm for political realignment, which simply isn’t on offer.)

The Tories would quite likely get caned if we end up remaining, and Labour similarly, should we Brexit without Labour having supported a second referendum.

Anazina

Sean_F said:

williamglenn said:

kle4 said:

I don't doubt the sincerity of many in the EU for us to remain, but I think if they stopped to think about it a bit more they'd see that it's better for the project if we are not part of them.

As a counterfactual, how do you think the last 45 years would have been better for the other 27 countries currently in the EU if the UK had been outside?

They would have been much happier, without us, IMHO.

Utter rubbish.

Get out more.

FrancisUrquhart

I have come to join the Citizen's Assembly..am I too late?

williamglenn

Sean_F said:

williamglenn said:

kle4 said:

I don't doubt the sincerity of many in the EU for us to remain, but I think if they stopped to think about it a bit more they'd see that it's better for the project if we are not part of them.

As a counterfactual, how do you think the last 45 years would have been better for the other 27 countries currently in the EU if the UK had been outside?

They would have been much happier, without us, IMHO.

If the UK had not been a member, would joining the EU have seemed such a self-evident step for the post-communist countries?

MarqueeMark

That'll teach the SKY graphics team - having UKIP and the LibDems there, but not the power-broking DUP.....

Nigelb

Sean_F said:

williamglenn said:

kle4 said:

I don't doubt the sincerity of many in the EU for us to remain, but I think if they stopped to think about it a bit more they'd see that it's better for the project if we are not part of them.

As a counterfactual, how do you think the last 45 years would have been better for the other 27 countries currently in the EU if the UK had been outside?

They would have been much happier, without us, IMHO.

I disagree - I think you are perhaps projecting.
And they probably wouldn’t have the Single Market.

MarqueeMark

FrancisUrquhart said:

I have come to join the Citizen's Assembly..am I too late?

Which did you bring - pitchfork, or burning brand?

kle4

williamglenn said:

kle4 said:

williamglenn said:

kle4 said:

I don't doubt the sincerity of many in the EU for us to remain, but I think if they stopped to think about it a bit more they'd see that it's better for the project if we are not part of them.

As a counterfactual, how do you think the last 45 years would have been better for the other 27 countries currently in the EU if the UK had been outside?

I don't necessarily think that. But I think it would be worse for them from now on, and has not been as good as they would have liked recently, because we are, as they continually moaned, obstructive and difficult. If we stay they'll only complain more once the euphoria wears off.

Doesn't that depend on the assumption that the UK will not have been profoundly changed by the experience of the last few years?

Well as a certain person once said, nothing has changed. Many people seem to have found the european fervour that was not very obvious before, but we'll still be a country where millions upon millions wanted out, many of them even if it meant no deal, they have hardened in their opposition in fact. The remainer forces will probably be successful, but they have to bear in mind what that large group will do, most of them will not take the view that we should be in all the way now.

Endillion

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

I look forward to seeing the conclusion of whether the Tories are really ahead in the polls. Personally they could be and i wouldn't believe it, I just don't see how it would maintain itself in an electoral situation when it is so riven.

I think the Tories are ahead in the polls because of Mrs May's lead in the leadership ratings, however I suspect that lead would crumble during an election campaign this year as the Tories couldn't unite over Brexit.

The difference is that in 2017 May was still largely an unknown quantity as PM. Now people have seem plenty of proof that she's a maddeningly difficult woman who nonetheless has enormous reserves of stamina and tenacity. I don't think her ratings would be as vulnerable a second time unless she does something stupid.

"... unless she does something stupid, again."

RobD

FrancisUrquhart said:

I have come to join the Citizen's Assembly..am I too late?

First topic, pineapple on pizza.

kle4

FrancisUrquhart said:

I have come to join the Citizen's Assembly..am I too late?

I think only people who have passed a Citizenship test should be allowed to be part of the Assembly, they're the only ones who've proved their citizen credentials sufficiently.

FrancisUrquhart

MarqueeMark said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I have come to join the Citizen's Assembly..am I too late?

Which did you bring - pitchfork, or burning brand?

Neither, but I have brought a left over bottle of Nyetimber from Christmas...

Wulfrun_Phil

Sean_F said:

williamglenn said:

kle4 said:

I don't doubt the sincerity of many in the EU for us to remain, but I think if they stopped to think about it a bit more they'd see that it's better for the project if we are not part of them.

As a counterfactual, how do you think the last 45 years would have been better for the other 27 countries currently in the EU if the UK had been outside?

They would have been much happier, without us, IMHO.

No, they were and are happy to put up with our mutterings so long as we are there to pay for their bills and to buy their exports.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1086034867433934849

Sean_F

Anazina said:

Sean_F said:

williamglenn said:

kle4 said:

I don't doubt the sincerity of many in the EU for us to remain, but I think if they stopped to think about it a bit more they'd see that it's better for the project if we are not part of them.

As a counterfactual, how do you think the last 45 years would have been better for the other 27 countries currently in the EU if the UK had been outside?

They would have been much happier, without us, IMHO.

Utter rubbish.

Get out more.

Please explain.

They would not have had us demanding a Rebate, complaining about Maastricht, and Lisbon, demanding opt outs, electing UKIP MEP's etc. Why is that not good from their point of view?

TheScreamingEagles

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

I look forward to seeing the conclusion of whether the Tories are really ahead in the polls. Personally they could be and i wouldn't believe it, I just don't see how it would maintain itself in an electoral situation when it is so riven.

I think the Tories are ahead in the polls because of Mrs May's lead in the leadership ratings, however I suspect that lead would crumble during an election campaign this year as the Tories couldn't unite over Brexit.

It would probably be like one of those strange elections in the 1920's. Huge swings all over the place at constituency level.

Quite likely.

If No Deal is as bad as many fear then I'd expect to see huge swings against those MPs who said No Deal/WTO would be awesome.

22% swing against JRM in North East Somerset, you heard it here first.

FF43

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1086034867433934849

With May or without May?

kle4

Anazina said:

T

kle4 said:

Anazina said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1086027452273647616

Germany’s love letter to Britain up top is hackneyed but sweet. Of course, the raging europhobes on here will mock it, as they turn their backs.

I won't mock it. I just think particularly after all that has gone down it is not good for either of us to remain, not least since if we showed the slightest reticence to do what the EU by and large wanted - which we would, since we'd have millions of fuming people at us having remained - Germany and the others would return to leaking about how frustrated they are by the brits, how the brits don't understand how things are done, that the brits aren't playing ball.

I don't doubt the sincerity of many in the EU for us to remain, but I think if they stopped to think about it a bit more they'd see that it's better for the project if we are not part of them.

I travel and do business with Germans, French, Spanish and Austrians. I can tell you that everyone I have spoken to thinks it a tragic split. They are right.

Splits can be tragic and still sometimes for the best. They don't want it but should recognise it is not working with us in. They certainly would have no intention of mollycoddling us, as they see it, and would treat with contempt any bitterness we might display, any reticence for the grand project. So being sad about the outcome doesn't mean that it is not a better outcome.

And I'd point out that some remainer fans on PB have in the past been keen to point out that in their experience the EU cannot wait to get rid of us, they already no longer care. I object to that on the basis that the EU would be fools to not care what a very large nation on their doorstep does.

Stark_Dawning

TheScreamingEagles said:

Why oh why did Mrs May give the disgraced national security risk Liam Fox such a key Brexit job?

Dr Fox's predictions on how easy Brexit would be is up there with the plan for an Anglo-German trade deal post Brexit by David Davis.

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1086021890605502466

I’m honestly now envisaging the following: extension of A50 and some kind of coalition of the sensible. If that happens we might just get through this relatively unscathed, and Liam, DD, Boris etc. need never trouble our waking hours again.

FrancisUrquhart

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1086034867433934849

Cyclefree

TheScreamingEagles said:

Why oh why did Mrs May give the disgraced national security risk Liam Fox such a key Brexit job?

Dr Fox's predictions on how easy Brexit would be is up there with the plan for an Anglo-German trade deal post Brexit by David Davis.

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1086021890605502466

She’s a moron and has no ability to assess people.

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

I look forward to seeing the conclusion of whether the Tories are really ahead in the polls. Personally they could be and i wouldn't believe it, I just don't see how it would maintain itself in an electoral situation when it is so riven.

I think the Tories are ahead in the polls because of Mrs May's lead in the leadership ratings, however I suspect that lead would crumble during an election campaign this year as the Tories couldn't unite over Brexit.

The difference is that in 2017 May was still largely an unknown quantity as PM. Now people have seem plenty of proof that she's a maddeningly difficult woman who nonetheless has enormous reserves of stamina and tenacity. I don't think her ratings would be as vulnerable a second time unless she does something stupid.

The more I’ve seen of her in the last few months the less I like her. She seems to me to be dishonest, authoritarian, a bit of a bully and pointlessly stubborn. It’s not admirable tenacity but an unimaginative stubbornness and a refusal to take account of changed circumstances.

Andrew

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1086034867433934849

The word "prepare" covers quite a spectrum of implications there. It's probably normal they start doing that in any heavily deadlocked situation like we have at present.

kle4

Stark_Dawning said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Why oh why did Mrs May give the disgraced national security risk Liam Fox such a key Brexit job?

Dr Fox's predictions on how easy Brexit would be is up there with the plan for an Anglo-German trade deal post Brexit by David Davis.

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1086021890605502466

I’m honestly now envisaging the following: extension of A50 and some kind of coalition of the sensible. If that happens we might just get through this relatively unscathed, and Liam, DD, Boris etc. need never trouble our waking hours again.

Who might make up this coalition of the sensible? Extension is just a stepping stone to remain, which people are not brave enough to admit to yet.

Sean_F

williamglenn said:

Sean_F said:

williamglenn said:

kle4 said:

I don't doubt the sincerity of many in the EU for us to remain, but I think if they stopped to think about it a bit more they'd see that it's better for the project if we are not part of them.

As a counterfactual, how do you think the last 45 years would have been better for the other 27 countries currently in the EU if the UK had been outside?

They would have been much happier, without us, IMHO.

If the UK had not been a member, would joining the EU have seemed such a self-evident step for the post-communist countries?

I think that fear of Russia would have pushed them in the EU's direction.

Foxy

BBCQT back to its usual poor standard.

williamglenn

Sean_F said:

Anazina said:

Sean_F said:

williamglenn said:

kle4 said:

I don't doubt the sincerity of many in the EU for us to remain, but I think if they stopped to think about it a bit more they'd see that it's better for the project if we are not part of them.

As a counterfactual, how do you think the last 45 years would have been better for the other 27 countries currently in the EU if the UK had been outside?

They would have been much happier, without us, IMHO.

Utter rubbish.

Get out more.

Please explain.

They would not have had us demanding a Rebate, complaining about Maastricht, and Lisbon, demanding opt outs, electing UKIP MEP's etc. Why is that not good from their point of view?

And without France they wouldn't have Le Pen in the European parliament, votes against the constitution, etc. We're not the only country with domestic politics.

FrancisUrquhart

Foxy said:

BBCQT back to its usual poor standard.

It should have been taken out the back and shot years ago.

TheScreamingEagles

https://twitter.com/LordJayEwelme/status/1085866558554062848

Sean_F

Nigelb said:

Sean_F said:

williamglenn said:

kle4 said:

I don't doubt the sincerity of many in the EU for us to remain, but I think if they stopped to think about it a bit more they'd see that it's better for the project if we are not part of them.

As a counterfactual, how do you think the last 45 years would have been better for the other 27 countries currently in the EU if the UK had been outside?

They would have been much happier, without us, IMHO.

I disagree - I think you are perhaps projecting.
And they probably wouldn’t have the Single Market.

My view is that De Gaulle was correct to veto our application, and was doing us a favour, had we only seen it.

kle4

Hard to argue with Leo's view that its far better, from Corbyn's perspective, to wind down the clock. What I am curious about is whether parliament can stop anyone winding down the clock. They are all over the place on it, with wanting to take things off the table and make decisions now, but also large numbers who want an extension for almost no reason other than to avoid a decision they know is coming.

TheScreamingEagles

Sean_F said:

Nigelb said:

Sean_F said:

williamglenn said:

kle4 said:

I don't doubt the sincerity of many in the EU for us to remain, but I think if they stopped to think about it a bit more they'd see that it's better for the project if we are not part of them.

As a counterfactual, how do you think the last 45 years would have been better for the other 27 countries currently in the EU if the UK had been outside?

They would have been much happier, without us, IMHO.

I disagree - I think you are perhaps projecting.
And they probably wouldn’t have the Single Market.

My view is that De Gaulle was correct to veto our application, and was doing us a favour, had we only seen it.

I cannot think of any better reason for being members of the EU than the French didn't want us to be members.

MarqueeMark

FrancisUrquhart said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1086034867433934849

If only the civil service had been told to prepare for no deal Brexit......

MarqueeMark

FrancisUrquhart said:

MarqueeMark said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I have come to join the Citizen's Assembly..am I too late?

Which did you bring - pitchfork, or burning brand?

Neither, but I have brought a left over bottle of Nyetimber from Christmas...

Does it burn?

Nemtynakht

https://unherd.com/2019/01/how-british-politics-is-failing/

This article is fascinating. I can’t decide who is in a better position. The Tories who will likely be rid of May soon but have little talent in the rank below, or Labour who will have more problem getting rid of Corbyn, who have better potential replacements, but who would likely pick a numpty.

MarqueeMark

Foxy said:

BBCQT back to its usual poor standard.

On the contrary - it fairly reflects the bollocksed state of public discourse.

Mortimer

Biggest laugh again reserved for Labour policy on Brexit...

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/hugorifkind/status/1086038174768513024

Scott_P

And another epic self-own...

https://twitter.com/jeneps/status/1086037961681092608

kle4

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/hugorifkind/status/1086038174768513024

Easy way to avoid that. Well, there had been.

Chris_A

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/hugorifkind/status/1086038174768513024

Quite. And these are the people Cameron thought could reverently, discreetly, advisedly, soberly decide our future for decades to come.

kle4

Chris_A said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/hugorifkind/status/1086038174768513024

Quite. And these are the people Cameron thought could reverently, discreetly, advisedly, soberly decide our future for decades to come.

They do in every election. If MPs wanted they didn't have to do it. I don't think they will.

GIN1138

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/hugorifkind/status/1086038174768513024

Now about that second referendum...

kle4

GIN1138 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/hugorifkind/status/1086038174768513024

Now about that second referendum...

Not a worry - no deal won't be on there after all.

Chris_A

Stark_Dawning said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Why oh why did Mrs May give the disgraced national security risk Liam Fox such a key Brexit job?

Dr Fox's predictions on how easy Brexit would be is up there with the plan for an Anglo-German trade deal post Brexit by David Davis.

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1086021890605502466

I’m honestly now envisaging the following: extension of A50 and some kind of coalition of the sensible. If that happens we might just get through this relatively unscathed, and Liam, DD, Boris etc. need never trouble our waking hours again.

And Grayling too, please God.

williamglenn

GIN1138 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/hugorifkind/status/1086038174768513024

Now about that second referendum...

"Well, Mr Angry, you have the choice between ratifying the withdrawal agreement or revoking article 50."

Wulfrun_Phil

Scott_P said:

And another epic self-own...

https://twitter.com/jeneps/status/1086037961681092608

A couple of minutes ago, disapproval ratings for Trump just hit 55% (with 40.2% in favour), the highest level since Feb 2018.

Chris_A

kle4 said:

Chris_A said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/hugorifkind/status/1086038174768513024

Quite. And these are the people Cameron thought could reverently, discreetly, advisedly, soberly decide our future for decades to come.

They do in every election. If MPs wanted they didn't have to do it. I don't think they will.

Yes and then the the sensible adults make the decisions - there's the difference.

kle4

Chris_A said:

kle4 said:

Chris_A said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/hugorifkind/status/1086038174768513024

Quite. And these are the people Cameron thought could reverently, discreetly, advisedly, soberly decide our future for decades to come.

They do in every election. If MPs wanted they didn't have to do it. I don't think they will.

Yes and then the the sensible adults make the decisions - there's the difference.

You're not in favour a second referendum then I take it?

Sean_F

kle4 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/hugorifkind/status/1086038174768513024

Easy way to avoid that. Well, there had been.

For about 20 years, I've thought we should leave the EU. What's odd is suddenly finding myself outflanked by people who were way more pro-EU than I was, back then.

Chris_A

kle4 said:

Chris_A said:

kle4 said:

Chris_A said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/hugorifkind/status/1086038174768513024

Quite. And these are the people Cameron thought could reverently, discreetly, advisedly, soberly decide our future for decades to come.

They do in every election. If MPs wanted they didn't have to do it. I don't think they will.

Yes and then the the sensible adults make the decisions - there's the difference.

You're not in favour a second referendum then I take it?

No I wouldn't be, but it's the only way out of the impasse unless we have a general election with Labour committed to revoking Article 50. I've never voted Labour in my life but by God if they did I'd be out leafleting for them with every spare moment I've got.

kle4

"The world is bigger than YouGov" the killer quote.

MarqueeMark

What if we had a General Election and NOBODY VOTED........?

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1086041967438581760

Floater

GIN1138 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/hugorifkind/status/1086038174768513024

Now about that second referendum...

Project fear mark 15 working out well then......

FrankBooth

Chris_A said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/hugorifkind/status/1086038174768513024

Quite. And these are the people Cameron thought could reverently, discreetly, advisedly, soberly decide our future for decades to come.

What the voters? Whether or not one supports referenda in general the notion that the voters shouldn't be able to determine our future is just as much to blame for where we are.

Floater

Mortimer said:

Biggest laugh again reserved for Labour policy on Brexit...

Which one?

Sean_F

Chris_A said:

kle4 said:

Chris_A said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/hugorifkind/status/1086038174768513024

Quite. And these are the people Cameron thought could reverently, discreetly, advisedly, soberly decide our future for decades to come.

They do in every election. If MPs wanted they didn't have to do it. I don't think they will.

Yes and then the the sensible adults make the decisions - there's the difference.

Who are these "sensible adults?" The moderate, rational, intelligent people gave us the Iraq war and the Banking crisis. Populists may be offering snake oil, but the voters see centrists as self -serving, corrupt, inept, and arrogant.

FF43

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/hugorifkind/status/1086038174768513024

Lord of the Flies, I recall from my English classes, ended that way too.

Does anyone ever read that book, except at school?

PClipp

Sean_F said:

kle4 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/hugorifkind/status/1086038174768513024

Easy way to avoid that. Well, there had been.

For about 20 years, I've thought we should leave the EU. What's odd is suddenly finding myself outflanked by people who were way more pro-EU than I was, back then.

But of course, Sean. That was back in the good old days, when all Conservatives thought exactly the same as their leaders - and they all thought the same among themselves. Moreover, the Conservative leaders then were all in favour of the EU.

Now they all want to leave the EU, so that Mr Corbyn is free to create a Socialist Paradise.

Conservatives are very strange creatures. There is no making head or tail of them.

williamglenn

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1086041967438581760

Also seems to be the SNP line.

https://twitter.com/bbcquestiontime/status/1086041500176343040

kle4

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1086041967438581760

How many current Tory votes for the deal does she lose if that is the case?

Not saying it is an unreasonable demand from the LD perspective - frankly I think it's May's only hope of her deal going through as well - but trying to figure out the maths of this, the LDs can be countered pretty quickly if more Tories defect.

Nigelb

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1086041967438581760

That is interesting.
Polling clearly shows that very few indeed want a general election, whereas they tend to show the public favouring a second referendum (though not definiteively so).

Labour voters very clearly back a second referendum. Their front bench not so much.

Floater

Andrew said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1086034867433934849

The word "prepare" covers quite a spectrum of implications there. It's probably normal they start doing that in any heavily deadlocked situation like we have at present.

Don't forget this little snippet

https://order-order.com/2019/01/16/election-alert-tories-open-candidate-selections-swathes-seats/

YBarddCwsc

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

I look forward to seeing the conclusion of whether the Tories are really ahead in the polls. Personally they could be and i wouldn't believe it, I just don't see how it would maintain itself in an electoral situation when it is so riven.

I think the Tories are ahead in the polls because of Mrs May's lead in the leadership ratings, however I suspect that lead would crumble during an election campaign this year as the Tories couldn't unite over Brexit.

It would probably be like one of those strange elections in the 1920's. Huge swings all over the place at constituency level.

I think that is right. There would be all manner of spoiler candidates -- Independent Brexiteers against Grieve & Boles, surely Bercow will not be given a free ride in Buckingham, Labour Remainers in Leave seats will face Lexiteers, and so on.

Few MPs will be completely easy in their minds that they will be back in the saddle after the election.

This is one of the main reasons why I don't expect an election.

FF43

kle4 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1086041967438581760

How many current Tory votes for the deal does she lose if that is the case?

Not saying it is an unreasonable demand from the LD perspective - frankly I think it's May's only hope of her deal going through as well - but trying to figure out the maths of this, the LDs can be countered pretty quickly if more Tories defect.

Not many, I suspect, because support for the deal wasn't high in the first place.

GIN1138

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1086041967438581760

If only they had another 250 MPs it might be worth considering....

kle4

May should agree to a referendum, but only on the basis the authorising Act makes it an offence to refer to it as a People's Vote.

FF43 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/hugorifkind/status/1086038174768513024

Lord of the Flies, I recall from my English classes, ended that way too.

Does anyone ever read that book, except at school?

Good or bad, I don't think many books people are forced to read as children and adolescents end up being reread. Unless it is just right up your alley, the very fact of being required to do it sours the experience a bit.

Mortimer

GIN1138 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1086041967438581760

If only they had another 250 MPs it might be worth considering....

Indeed

Another bit of unicornism.

Legislating for a second referendum loses another 100 or so story MP, and more than half
The cabinet.

kle4

FF43 said:

kle4 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1086041967438581760

How many current Tory votes for the deal does she lose if that is the case?

Not saying it is an unreasonable demand from the LD perspective - frankly I think it's May's only hope of her deal going through as well - but trying to figure out the maths of this, the LDs can be countered pretty quickly if more Tories defect.

Not many, I suspect, because support for the deal wasn't high in the first place.

But more than 12? Some might have backed it on the basis that at least it guaranteed a form of leave, whereas a referendum does not.

Chris_A

FrankBooth said:

Chris_A said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/hugorifkind/status/1086038174768513024

Quite. And these are the people Cameron thought could reverently, discreetly, advisedly, soberly decide our future for decades to come.

What the voters? Whether or not one supports referenda in general the notion that the voters shouldn't be able to determine our future is just as much to blame for where we are.

Of course they shouldn't directly. Watch any vox pop - the BBC seems quite keen on them - of voters discussing Brexit and the vast majority having got the first bloody clue about any of the issues.

Nigelb

FF43 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/hugorifkind/status/1086038174768513024

Lord of the Flies, I recall from my English classes, ended that way too.

Does anyone ever read that book, except at school?

I recall it ending with the grownups turning up and restoring order (though it’s many decades since I read it).
Not seeing the parallels....

Nigelb

Chris_A said:

FrankBooth said:

Chris_A said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/hugorifkind/status/1086038174768513024

Quite. And these are the people Cameron thought could reverently, discreetly, advisedly, soberly decide our future for decades to come.

What the voters? Whether or not one supports referenda in general the notion that the voters shouldn't be able to determine our future is just as much to blame for where we are.

Of course they shouldn't directly. Watch any vox pop - the BBC seems quite keen on them - of voters discussing Brexit and the vast majority having got the first bloody clue about any of the issues.

Watching recent parliamentary debates, I’m not quite understanding the point you’re trying to make....

kle4

I'm a tea drinker myself, but this does sound concerning:

The first full assessment of risks to the world's coffee plants shows that 60% of 124 known species are on the edge of extinction.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-46845461

No_Offence_Alan

kle4 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1086041967438581760

How many current Tory votes for the deal does she lose if that is the case?

Not saying it is an unreasonable demand from the LD perspective - frankly I think it's May's only hope of her deal going through as well - but trying to figure out the maths of this, the LDs can be countered pretty quickly if more Tories defect.

I think the catch is that May would want the choice to be Deal/No Deal.

kle4

No_Offence_Alan said:

kle4 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1086041967438581760

How many current Tory votes for the deal does she lose if that is the case?

Not saying it is an unreasonable demand from the LD perspective - frankly I think it's May's only hope of her deal going through as well - but trying to figure out the maths of this, the LDs can be countered pretty quickly if more Tories defect.

I think the catch is that May would want the choice to be Deal/No Deal.

I'm sure she would, the Deal might even have a chance then. But given most people who want a referendum want it because they want to remain, those whose votes May needs have good reason to hold firm.