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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With “cabinet resignations” in the air who is going to be firs

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited January 22 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With “cabinet resignations” in the air who is going to be first to quit

We are going through turbulent times and there’s little doubt that the next few weeks as we edge closer to March 29th are going to see dramatic developments which are going to be hard to predict.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 940
    Anyone who says first or second or any ordinal indicator eats poo
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 4,974
    I have been laying TM to go next on this market on betfair. Available to lay at 3.4 at the moment.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 16,989
    Ladbrokes have a lot of high profile employees.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 10,465
    _Anazina_ said:

    Anyone who says first or second or any ordinal indicator eats poo

    Unfortunately the enforcement robot works by detecting keywords, and is now fully loaded with poo and proceeding to your location
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 1,155
    _Anazina_ said:

    Anyone who says first or second or any ordinal indicator eats poo

    Ordinal numbers, cardinal sins?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,254
    rkrkrk said:

    I have been laying TM to go next on this market on betfair. Available to lay at 3.4 at the moment.

    If TM goes next it's almost certainly a dead heat. DC went on the same day as George Osborne and I think one other.
  • eekeek Posts: 3,181
    Given the dead heat rules is anyone worth betting on.

    I can imagine anything from 1-8 of them going and were Mrs May to leave a few hours later everything becomes a dead heat. And there isn't time for a drip-drip-drip approach with someone resigning every day.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 10,465
    FPT

    As ever with labour their commitment to a second referendum is a fudge. They want to negotiate a better deal first and then put it to a referendum.

    That's their general election positioning. Worked for David Cameron.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,617
    It is deeply depressing how few of those names would even be missed. It would be even more depressing if the tiny amount of momentum May has gained in the last few days (mad Nad was a bit of a surprise) was dissipated in this way.

    Steady the buffs, Amber, your country needs you.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,254
    If whoever is next to go does so because of a policy argument, rather than a scandal, then it's going to depend on whether Mrs May goes for the 'harder' or 'softer' option on Brexit.

    If she goes for no deal, then Amber et al will resign, if she goes for a softer negotiation (SM/CU etc) then it could be Penny et al instead.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,617

    _Anazina_ said:

    Anyone who says first or second or any ordinal indicator eats poo

    Unfortunately the enforcement robot works by detecting keywords, and is now fully loaded with poo and proceeding to your location
    Is this the unicorn poo that so much time was spent discussing yesterday or the more common or garden variety?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 18,586
    Sandpit said:

    If whoever is next to go does so because of a policy argument, rather than a scandal, then it's going to depend on whether Mrs May goes for the 'harder' or 'softer' option on Brexit.

    If she goes for no deal, then Amber et al will resign, if she goes for a softer negotiation (SM/CU etc) then it could be Penny et al instead.

    Didn't the manifesto rule out SM/CU?

    Anyone holding the Tory whip should be opposing that.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,254
    Sad news from Cardiff FC. French police confirm that their new signing Emiliano Sala was on board light aircraft missing since last night in the English Channel just off Brittany. Search underway again, having being called off for bad weather in the early hours.
  • FPT

    As ever with labour their commitment to a second referendum is a fudge. They want to negotiate a better deal first and then put it to a referendum.

    That's their general election positioning. Worked for David Cameron.
    For the sake of accuracy this was my full post

    As ever with labour their commitment to a second referendum is a fudge. They want to negotiate a better deal first and then put it to a referendum. However, Sky reporting that no one is sure Corbyn would vote for it or whip it and in addition several of the shadow front bench would resign and 30 plus labour mps would vote against.

    'nothing has changed'
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,617
    Have they got beer and sandwiches at the ready?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 3,060
    Sandpit said:



    If she goes for no deal, then Amber et al will resign, if she goes for a softer negotiation (SM/CU etc) then it could be Penny et al instead.

    That's like the Iran-Iraq war or Man Utd vs Chelsea. It's a shame they both can't lose.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,254

    Sandpit said:

    If whoever is next to go does so because of a policy argument, rather than a scandal, then it's going to depend on whether Mrs May goes for the 'harder' or 'softer' option on Brexit.

    If she goes for no deal, then Amber et al will resign, if she goes for a softer negotiation (SM/CU etc) then it could be Penny et al instead.

    Didn't the manifesto rule out SM/CU?

    Anyone holding the Tory whip should be opposing that.
    Yes, and yes they should.

    But then Dominic Grieve still somehow holds the Tory whip, I think with almost any other Parliamentary arithmetic he'd have been suspended by the party before now.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,254
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:


    If she goes for no deal, then Amber et al will resign, if she goes for a softer negotiation (SM/CU etc) then it could be Penny et al instead.

    That's like the Iran-Iraq war or Man Utd vs Chelsea. It's a shame they both can't lose.
    LOL!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 14,139
    Sandpit said:

    Sad news from Cardiff FC. French police confirm that their new signing Emiliano Sala was on board light aircraft missing since last night in the English Channel just off Brittany. Search underway again, having being called off for bad weather in the early hours.

    Some nasty rocks around Alderney, too. Flying into the airport can be a bit hairy.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 18,586
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    If whoever is next to go does so because of a policy argument, rather than a scandal, then it's going to depend on whether Mrs May goes for the 'harder' or 'softer' option on Brexit.

    If she goes for no deal, then Amber et al will resign, if she goes for a softer negotiation (SM/CU etc) then it could be Penny et al instead.

    Didn't the manifesto rule out SM/CU?

    Anyone holding the Tory whip should be opposing that.
    Yes, and yes they should.

    But then Dominic Grieve still somehow holds the Tory whip, I think with almost any other Parliamentary arithmetic he'd have been suspended by the party before now.
    That and Cameron's constitutional vandalism of the FTPA that removed the four line whip.

    How different would this ratification process be if May could make a vote a confidence vote like Major did to force his bastards into line over Maastricht. Modern day bastards like Grieve don't face that.
  • felixfelix Posts: 8,459
    I reluctantly support the Cooper amendment now. The madness needs to stop and my party needs to reform. 1846 redux !
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,254

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    If whoever is next to go does so because of a policy argument, rather than a scandal, then it's going to depend on whether Mrs May goes for the 'harder' or 'softer' option on Brexit.

    If she goes for no deal, then Amber et al will resign, if she goes for a softer negotiation (SM/CU etc) then it could be Penny et al instead.

    Didn't the manifesto rule out SM/CU?

    Anyone holding the Tory whip should be opposing that.
    Yes, and yes they should.

    But then Dominic Grieve still somehow holds the Tory whip, I think with almost any other Parliamentary arithmetic he'd have been suspended by the party before now.
    That and Cameron's constitutional vandalism of the FTPA that removed the four line whip.

    How different would this ratification process be if May could make a vote a confidence vote like Major did to force his bastards into line over Maastricht. Modern day bastards like Grieve don't face that.
    Indeed. This past few weeks would have gone down very differently without the FTPA and the 'four line whip' it removed.

    It's inadvertently created a situation with a completely hung Parliament and small splits in both main parties, whereby nothing substantial can be passed yet the government doesn't lose a vote of confidence.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 9,069
    Public finances treading water ahead of much more important figures next month and the month after.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 18,586
    felix said:

    I reluctantly support the Cooper amendment now. The madness needs to stop and my party needs to reform. 1846 redux !

    Cooper's amendment doesn't stop the madness it drags it on until NYE.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 1,577
    Hunt is big at 25s. I can see him flouncing out of cabinet if he thinks it in the national interest.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 10,465


    That and Cameron's constitutional vandalism of the FTPA that removed the four line whip.

    How different would this ratification process be if May could make a vote a confidence vote like Major did to force his bastards into line over Maastricht. Modern day bastards like Grieve don't face that.

    TMay wouldn't have called the vote, because the DUP would have voted against her.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 14,139
    edited January 22

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    If whoever is next to go does so because of a policy argument, rather than a scandal, then it's going to depend on whether Mrs May goes for the 'harder' or 'softer' option on Brexit.

    If she goes for no deal, then Amber et al will resign, if she goes for a softer negotiation (SM/CU etc) then it could be Penny et al instead.

    Didn't the manifesto rule out SM/CU?

    Anyone holding the Tory whip should be opposing that.
    Yes, and yes they should.

    But then Dominic Grieve still somehow holds the Tory whip, I think with almost any other Parliamentary arithmetic he'd have been suspended by the party before now.
    That and Cameron's constitutional vandalism of the FTPA that removed the four line whip.

    How different would this ratification process be if May could make a vote a confidence vote like Major did to force his bastards into line over Maastricht. Modern day bastards like Grieve don't face that.
    FTPA; another good idea that doesn't work as well as it was intended to. Although if we didn't have it, would the VoNC last week had a different result? I doubt it, TBH.
  • Have I ever mentioned that I once tipped and won Amber Rudd as next out of the cabinet at 33/1?

    Seems only like last year.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 28,870
    kinabalu said:

    Hunt is big at 25s. I can see him flouncing out of cabinet if he thinks it in the national interest.

    Hunt is like all the other Tory leadership contenders. He is guided entirely by what he believes is best for himself.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,254

    Sandpit said:

    Sad news from Cardiff FC. French police confirm that their new signing Emiliano Sala was on board light aircraft missing since last night in the English Channel just off Brittany. Search underway again, having being called off for bad weather in the early hours.

    Some nasty rocks around Alderney, too. Flying into the airport can be a bit hairy.
    Indeed so, here's hoping for a good outcome, but as hours pass that looks increasingly unlikely.

    Sadly, sounds like another case of what's known in aviation as getthereitis (get-there-itis), where a seemingly overpowering need to complete the planned flight overrides sensible decision making in changing conditions.

    Also stand by for Premier League clubs (more specifically their insurers) to ban players from travelling in single engined planes.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,617
    I think any hashtag is pretty superfluous: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46958560

    Yet another record high for employment in the UK.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 73,258
    edited January 22

    kinabalu said:

    Hunt is big at 25s. I can see him flouncing out of cabinet if he thinks it in the national interest.

    Hunt is like all the other Tory leadership contenders. He is guided entirely by what he believes is best for himself.


    Nonsense.

    He was an awesome Health Secretary and secured record funding for the NHS.

    At the Foreign Office he’s done brilliantly, such as bringing home that chap from Dubai I think.

    He’s Prime Minister in waiting.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 940
    Various bag carriers have been deployed to fill the rooms with smoke.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,254
    edited January 22
    DavidL said:

    I think any hashtag is pretty superfluous: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46958560

    Yet another record high for employment in the UK.

    That's a pretty awesome employment graph.
    image
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 173
    _Anazina_ said:

    Various bag carriers have been deployed to fill the rooms with smoke.
    Are Pret bringing in the beer and sandwiches in one of their little trollies?
  • Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    I think any hashtag is pretty superfluous: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46958560

    Yet another record high for employment in the UK.

    That's a pretty awesome employment graph.
    image
    George Osborne’s golden economic legacy.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 14,139
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sad news from Cardiff FC. French police confirm that their new signing Emiliano Sala was on board light aircraft missing since last night in the English Channel just off Brittany. Search underway again, having being called off for bad weather in the early hours.

    Some nasty rocks around Alderney, too. Flying into the airport can be a bit hairy.
    Indeed so, here's hoping for a good outcome, but as hours pass that looks increasingly unlikely.

    Sadly, sounds like another case of what's known in aviation as getthereitis (get-there-itis), where a seemingly overpowering need to complete the planned flight overrides sensible decision making in changing conditions.

    Also stand by for Premier League clubs (more specifically their insurers) to ban players from travelling in single engined planes.
    I once flew into Alderney in a small gap in the then prevailing fog. We were in an four-seater air-taxi; the pilot more or less shoved us out and took off as soon as we were clear of the wings in his haste to get back to Guernsey.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,617
    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    I think any hashtag is pretty superfluous: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46958560

    Yet another record high for employment in the UK.

    That's a pretty awesome employment graph.
    image
    It's a bit odd. The graph really doesn't seem to show the loss of 500k jobs after the decision to vote leave at all. It's almost as if it made no difference whatsoever.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 1,577
    edited January 22

    Hunt is like all the other Tory leadership contenders. He is guided entirely by what he believes is best for himself.

    The required contortion, albeit quite a tortured one, is ...

    "I am easily the best choice to lead our great nation and our great nation deserves the best. Therefore I must, in the national interest, do everything I possibly can, use every trick in the book, dirty or otherwise, to maximize my chances of landing the job, even if some of what I do to further my cause would appear to the unwary to be against the national interest."

    You have to somehow make yourself believe that. Boris Johnson clearly doesn't, for example, hence he looks like what he is - a chancer.

    The more dangerous types are chancers who appear to be something more than that. I would put the Sajid into this category.

    And then of course, since I am not a hopeless cynic, there are some good eggs - e.g. Hammond and Gove.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 16,989
    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    I think any hashtag is pretty superfluous: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46958560

    Yet another record high for employment in the UK.

    That's a pretty awesome employment graph.
    image
    It's a bit odd. The graph really doesn't seem to show the loss of 500k jobs after the decision to vote leave at all. It's almost as if it made no difference whatsoever.
    Yes it's curious - it seems also to have missed out the massed unemployed denizens of Hartlepool, all thrown out of their jobs by the ingressing Eastern Europeans.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 22,311
    _Anazina_ said:

    Anyone who says first or second or any ordinal indicator eats poo

    Is +1 an ordinal indicator?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,254

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sad news from Cardiff FC. French police confirm that their new signing Emiliano Sala was on board light aircraft missing since last night in the English Channel just off Brittany. Search underway again, having being called off for bad weather in the early hours.

    Some nasty rocks around Alderney, too. Flying into the airport can be a bit hairy.
    Indeed so, here's hoping for a good outcome, but as hours pass that looks increasingly unlikely.

    Sadly, sounds like another case of what's known in aviation as getthereitis (get-there-itis), where a seemingly overpowering need to complete the planned flight overrides sensible decision making in changing conditions.

    Also stand by for Premier League clubs (more specifically their insurers) to ban players from travelling in single engined planes.
    I once flew into Alderney in a small gap in the then prevailing fog. We were in an four-seater air-taxi; the pilot more or less shoved us out and took off as soon as we were clear of the wings in his haste to get back to Guernsey.
    Yep, happens all the time in the light charter market and executive travel. 99% of the time it's okay, but occasionally it goes wrong and the weather gods win.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 10,465
    Sandpit said:


    Sadly, sounds like another case of what's known in aviation as getthereitis (get-there-itis), where a seemingly overpowering need to complete the planned flight overrides sensible decision making in changing conditions.

    I flew out of Tokyo a couple of weeks after the Fukushima accident, the Austrian pilot was walking down the queue harassing the guys responsible for counting everybody's geigers before they were allowed on the plane, then he finally got the all-clear and started bombing it around the taxiways. I thought he was going to roll the plane over.
  • On topic, Hunt, Gauke, Clarke, and Mundell.

    This is a market that could get ruined by the dead heat rules.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 22,311
    Sandpit said:

    Sad news from Cardiff FC. French police confirm that their new signing Emiliano Sala was on board light aircraft missing since last night in the English Channel just off Brittany. Search underway again, having being called off for bad weather in the early hours.

    Would they have insurance on the fee?

    I could see an argument about it if he never turned up for work

    (Too soon?)
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 1,903
    Spent a large amount of time yesterday in the car and had the dubious privilege to listen to Nadine Dorries on R4. How the heck did someone so thick get into parliament? She makes Corbyn sound like an intellectual colossus, and that is saying something. With people like her in the legislature it is little surprise we are where we are
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 22,311
    edited January 22
    kinabalu said:

    Hunt is big at 25s. I can see him flouncing out of cabinet if he thinks it in the national his own interest.

    Fixed for ya
  • Spent a large amount of time yesterday in the car and had the dubious privilege to listen to Nadine Dorries on R4. How the heck did someone so thick get into parliament? She makes Corbyn sound like an intellectual colossus, and that is saying something. With people like her in the legislature it is little surprise we are where we are

    Marc Francois is even worse
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 25,857
    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    I think any hashtag is pretty superfluous: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46958560

    Yet another record high for employment in the UK.

    That's a pretty awesome employment graph.
    image
    It's a bit odd. The graph really doesn't seem to show the loss of 500k jobs after the decision to vote leave at all. It's almost as if it made no difference whatsoever.
    I must say, I'm surprised as well.

    On topic, what is the legal status of Yvette Cooper's proposed amendment? Does it actually do what she wants it to do (stopping a No Deal Brexit?)
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 1,903
    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    I think any hashtag is pretty superfluous: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46958560

    Yet another record high for employment in the UK.

    That's a pretty awesome employment graph.
    image
    It's a bit odd. The graph really doesn't seem to show the loss of 500k jobs after the decision to vote leave at all. It's almost as if it made no difference whatsoever.
    Er, have you not noticed....we haven't left yet
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 1,903
    DavidL said:

    Have they got beer and sandwiches at the ready?
    On his salary and pension I would think it more likely to be champagne and caviar.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 2,117
    edited January 22
    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    I think any hashtag is pretty superfluous: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46958560

    Yet another record high for employment in the UK.

    That's a pretty awesome employment graph.
    image
    It's a bit odd. The graph really doesn't seem to show the loss of 500k jobs after the decision to vote leave at all. It's almost as if it made no difference whatsoever.
    :smile: Yes puzzling. Expressing it as a % of UK population presumably filters out at least some of the immigration.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 21,646
    On topic: If you follow Mike's logic, then surely the outstanding bet here is Greg Clark at 20/1. There is absolutely no way that he would be content with us drifting into No Deal. In the event of a walk-out by the sensible wing of the cabinet, he'd be one of those (along with Amber Rudd, David Gauke and Phil Hammond) doing the walking.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 18,586

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    I think any hashtag is pretty superfluous: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46958560

    Yet another record high for employment in the UK.

    That's a pretty awesome employment graph.
    image
    George Osborne’s golden economic legacy.
    I hate to say it but IDS's too.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 14,139
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sad news from Cardiff FC. French police confirm that their new signing Emiliano Sala was on board light aircraft missing since last night in the English Channel just off Brittany. Search underway again, having being called off for bad weather in the early hours.

    Some nasty rocks around Alderney, too. Flying into the airport can be a bit hairy.
    Indeed so, here's hoping for a good outcome, but as hours pass that looks increasingly unlikely.

    Sadly, sounds like another case of what's known in aviation as getthereitis (get-there-itis), where a seemingly overpowering need to complete the planned flight overrides sensible decision making in changing conditions.

    Also stand by for Premier League clubs (more specifically their insurers) to ban players from travelling in single engined planes.
    I once flew into Alderney in a small gap in the then prevailing fog. We were in an four-seater air-taxi; the pilot more or less shoved us out and took off as soon as we were clear of the wings in his haste to get back to Guernsey.
    Yep, happens all the time in the light charter market and executive travel. 99% of the time it's okay, but occasionally it goes wrong and the weather gods win.
    It was my mothers funeral, I was very anxious to get there and we'd been waiting at Southampton for four hours. The weather gods sense of irony ensured that the service plane from Southampton the Alderney got in about an hour later with the rest of my family.
    The fog then closed in properly and we were all stuck on Alderney for two days.
    Alderney's a b*&^%r for that in winter.
  • eekeek Posts: 3,181
    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sad news from Cardiff FC. French police confirm that their new signing Emiliano Sala was on board light aircraft missing since last night in the English Channel just off Brittany. Search underway again, having being called off for bad weather in the early hours.

    Would they have insurance on the fee?

    I could see an argument about it if he never turned up for work

    (Too soon?)
    I thought the exact same thing when I heard the story - it's an awkward question which I'm sure TSE will avoid answering.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 14,139

    On topic: If you follow Mike's logic, then surely the outstanding bet here is Greg Clark at 20/1. There is absolutely no way that he would be content with us drifting into No Deal. In the event of a walk-out by the sensible wing of the cabinet, he'd be one of those (along with Amber Rudd, David Gauke and Phil Hammond) doing the walking.

    Could a PM really carry on after half her cabinet head resigned? I know May's stubborn, but......
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,254
    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sad news from Cardiff FC. French police confirm that their new signing Emiliano Sala was on board light aircraft missing since last night in the English Channel just off Brittany. Search underway again, having being called off for bad weather in the early hours.

    Would they have insurance on the fee?

    I could see an argument about it if he never turned up for work

    (Too soon?)
    Fee was quoted as 15m, not sure whether pounds or euros, and at what point in the process the bank transfer happens. I'm assuming that clubs have large amounts of insurance for players, against injury or accident. In this case I can imagine several insurers arguing over who was responsible for Mr Sala as he got on that plane.

    Insurers in general will be paying much closer attention in general to the activities of people with large valuations on them. F1 drivers are already banned from anything more dangerous than a go-kart race, after several found interesting ways to get injured out of season.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 9,069
    eek said:

    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sad news from Cardiff FC. French police confirm that their new signing Emiliano Sala was on board light aircraft missing since last night in the English Channel just off Brittany. Search underway again, having being called off for bad weather in the early hours.

    Would they have insurance on the fee?

    I could see an argument about it if he never turned up for work

    (Too soon?)
    I thought the exact same thing when I heard the story - it's an awkward question which I'm sure TSE will avoid answering.
    Doesn't that amount to life insurance on the life of another person (not being your spouse or civil partner)?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 1,903

    Spent a large amount of time yesterday in the car and had the dubious privilege to listen to Nadine Dorries on R4. How the heck did someone so thick get into parliament? She makes Corbyn sound like an intellectual colossus, and that is saying something. With people like her in the legislature it is little surprise we are where we are

    Marc Francois is even worse
    I don't think I have had the pleasure of hearing him speak. If he is even worse than Nadine I am actually looking forward to it. I have often been accused of being prejudiced for calling members of the ERG stupid, but Nadine certainly didn't disabuse me of my strongly held belief that they really are very thick indeed.
  • eekeek Posts: 3,181

    On topic: If you follow Mike's logic, then surely the outstanding bet here is Greg Clark at 20/1. There is absolutely no way that he would be content with us drifting into No Deal. In the event of a walk-out by the sensible wing of the cabinet, he'd be one of those (along with Amber Rudd, David Gauke and Phil Hammond) doing the walking.

    But you are rapidly into very low odds dead heat rules.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 22,311
    eek said:

    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sad news from Cardiff FC. French police confirm that their new signing Emiliano Sala was on board light aircraft missing since last night in the English Channel just off Brittany. Search underway again, having being called off for bad weather in the early hours.

    Would they have insurance on the fee?

    I could see an argument about it if he never turned up for work

    (Too soon?)
    I thought the exact same thing when I heard the story - it's an awkward question which I'm sure TSE will avoid answering.
    TBF to @TheScreamingEagles I’m not sure why he would know the answer?

    There are a couple of insurance bods in here who might have a view but it’s going to be s very niche segment
  • Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    I think any hashtag is pretty superfluous: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46958560

    Yet another record high for employment in the UK.

    That's a pretty awesome employment graph.
    image
    It's a bit odd. The graph really doesn't seem to show the loss of 500k jobs after the decision to vote leave at all. It's almost as if it made no difference whatsoever.
    I must say, I'm surprised as well.

    On topic, what is the legal status of Yvette Cooper's proposed amendment? Does it actually do what she wants it to do (stopping a No Deal Brexit?)
    It intends amending A50 to stop a no deal by extending the period to 31st December if a deal is not agreed by late february

    The obvious problem with it is getting the EU to agree for us to continue in deadlock beyond their elections resulting in UK MEPs being sent to the Commssion. Also I can hear the groans from the populace across the UK by kicking the can further than even TM has.

    Dominic Grieve said that if any amendment passes, the government could ignore it but that could result in a GE or other parliamentary procedures effectively to paralyse the government
  • eekeek Posts: 3,181

    eek said:

    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sad news from Cardiff FC. French police confirm that their new signing Emiliano Sala was on board light aircraft missing since last night in the English Channel just off Brittany. Search underway again, having being called off for bad weather in the early hours.

    Would they have insurance on the fee?

    I could see an argument about it if he never turned up for work

    (Too soon?)
    I thought the exact same thing when I heard the story - it's an awkward question which I'm sure TSE will avoid answering.
    Doesn't that amount to life insurance on the life of another person (not being your spouse or civil partner)?
    Isn't it just a variation of key person insurance for a company?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,617

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    I think any hashtag is pretty superfluous: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46958560

    Yet another record high for employment in the UK.

    That's a pretty awesome employment graph.
    image
    It's a bit odd. The graph really doesn't seem to show the loss of 500k jobs after the decision to vote leave at all. It's almost as if it made no difference whatsoever.
    Er, have you not noticed....we haven't left yet
    LOL
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 21,646

    On topic: If you follow Mike's logic, then surely the outstanding bet here is Greg Clark at 20/1. There is absolutely no way that he would be content with us drifting into No Deal. In the event of a walk-out by the sensible wing of the cabinet, he'd be one of those (along with Amber Rudd, David Gauke and Phil Hammond) doing the walking.

    Could a PM really carry on after half her cabinet head resigned? I know May's stubborn, but......
    It would certainly be novel, but then could a leader of the opposition carry on after losing a vote of confidence amongst his own MPs by 172 to 40?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 21,646
    eek said:

    On topic: If you follow Mike's logic, then surely the outstanding bet here is Greg Clark at 20/1. There is absolutely no way that he would be content with us drifting into No Deal. In the event of a walk-out by the sensible wing of the cabinet, he'd be one of those (along with Amber Rudd, David Gauke and Phil Hammond) doing the walking.

    But you are rapidly into very low odds dead heat rules.
    Sure, but also with an increased chance of collecting.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 9,069
    eek said:

    eek said:

    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sad news from Cardiff FC. French police confirm that their new signing Emiliano Sala was on board light aircraft missing since last night in the English Channel just off Brittany. Search underway again, having being called off for bad weather in the early hours.

    Would they have insurance on the fee?

    I could see an argument about it if he never turned up for work

    (Too soon?)
    I thought the exact same thing when I heard the story - it's an awkward question which I'm sure TSE will avoid answering.
    Doesn't that amount to life insurance on the life of another person (not being your spouse or civil partner)?
    Isn't it just a variation of key person insurance for a company?
    Fair point
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 1,903

    On topic: If you follow Mike's logic, then surely the outstanding bet here is Greg Clark at 20/1. There is absolutely no way that he would be content with us drifting into No Deal. In the event of a walk-out by the sensible wing of the cabinet, he'd be one of those (along with Amber Rudd, David Gauke and Phil Hammond) doing the walking.

    Could a PM really carry on after half her cabinet head resigned? I know May's stubborn, but......
    It hasn't stopped Corbyn finding some numpties to fill most of the shadow positions
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 23,625
    I keep noting this and the consumer resistance from party-aligned types to this is strong:

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 22,311

    eek said:

    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sad news from Cardiff FC. French police confirm that their new signing Emiliano Sala was on board light aircraft missing since last night in the English Channel just off Brittany. Search underway again, having being called off for bad weather in the early hours.

    Would they have insurance on the fee?

    I could see an argument about it if he never turned up for work

    (Too soon?)
    I thought the exact same thing when I heard the story - it's an awkward question which I'm sure TSE will avoid answering.
    Doesn't that amount to life insurance on the life of another person (not being your spouse or civil partner)?
    Have Nantes breached their contract by not delivering the player in acceptable health?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 23,625
    On topic, isn't the problem that three people trying to get out of the door simultaneously will get jammed in the jambs?
  • Spent a large amount of time yesterday in the car and had the dubious privilege to listen to Nadine Dorries on R4. How the heck did someone so thick get into parliament? She makes Corbyn sound like an intellectual colossus, and that is saying something. With people like her in the legislature it is little surprise we are where we are

    Marc Francois is even worse
    I don't think I have had the pleasure of hearing him speak. If he is even worse than Nadine I am actually looking forward to it. I have often been accused of being prejudiced for calling members of the ERG stupid, but Nadine certainly didn't disabuse me of my strongly held belief that they really are very thick indeed.
    I can really recommend Francois as topping Nadine in those stakes
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 21,646

    Sandpit said:

    If whoever is next to go does so because of a policy argument, rather than a scandal, then it's going to depend on whether Mrs May goes for the 'harder' or 'softer' option on Brexit.

    If she goes for no deal, then Amber et al will resign, if she goes for a softer negotiation (SM/CU etc) then it could be Penny et al instead.

    Didn't the manifesto rule out SM/CU?

    Anyone holding the Tory whip should be opposing that.
    Agree entirely, as long as you extend the same logic to those who contradict the manifesto by advocating leaving with no deal.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 12,694
    We must surely be getting near to the point where there are more MPs who have been on the government payroll and have resigned than there are MPs left to fill any vacancies, whether in Cabinet or elsewhere.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 4,974
    Sandpit said:

    rkrkrk said:

    I have been laying TM to go next on this market on betfair. Available to lay at 3.4 at the moment.

    If TM goes next it's almost certainly a dead heat. DC went on the same day as George Osborne and I think one other.
    Hadn't considered that. I think that makes the bet even better, since dead heat rules mean I would only lose part of my stake. She has slipped out to 4.9 on betfair (partly driven by me!).
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 3,363

    Spent a large amount of time yesterday in the car and had the dubious privilege to listen to Nadine Dorries on R4. How the heck did someone so thick get into parliament? She makes Corbyn sound like an intellectual colossus, and that is saying something. With people like her in the legislature it is little surprise we are where we are

    Marc Francois is even worse
    I don't think I have had the pleasure of hearing him speak. If he is even worse than Nadine I am actually looking forward to it. I have often been accused of being prejudiced for calling members of the ERG stupid, but Nadine certainly didn't disabuse me of my strongly held belief that they really are very thick indeed.
    I can really recommend Francois as topping Nadine in those stakes
    But nothing beats Bridgen!
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 940
    Dear @NickPalmer – did you manage to do the Pause thing on your phone?
  • houndtanghoundtang Posts: 237
    If they are going to cancel Brexit - and they are - I wish they'd just get on with it.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 1,903

    I keep noting this and the consumer resistance from party-aligned types to this is strong:

    "a Brexit identity" is certainly an interesting concept.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 940

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sad news from Cardiff FC. French police confirm that their new signing Emiliano Sala was on board light aircraft missing since last night in the English Channel just off Brittany. Search underway again, having being called off for bad weather in the early hours.

    Some nasty rocks around Alderney, too. Flying into the airport can be a bit hairy.
    Indeed so, here's hoping for a good outcome, but as hours pass that looks increasingly unlikely.

    Sadly, sounds like another case of what's known in aviation as getthereitis (get-there-itis), where a seemingly overpowering need to complete the planned flight overrides sensible decision making in changing conditions.

    Also stand by for Premier League clubs (more specifically their insurers) to ban players from travelling in single engined planes.
    I once flew into Alderney in a small gap in the then prevailing fog. We were in an four-seater air-taxi; the pilot more or less shoved us out and took off as soon as we were clear of the wings in his haste to get back to Guernsey.
    Yep, happens all the time in the light charter market and executive travel. 99% of the time it's okay, but occasionally it goes wrong and the weather gods win.
    It was my mothers funeral, I was very anxious to get there and we'd been waiting at Southampton for four hours. The weather gods sense of irony ensured that the service plane from Southampton the Alderney got in about an hour later with the rest of my family.
    The fog then closed in properly and we were all stuck on Alderney for two days.
    Alderney's a b*&^%r for that in winter.
    Is it not possible to catch the boat there?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 24,747

    Spent a large amount of time yesterday in the car and had the dubious privilege to listen to Nadine Dorries on R4. How the heck did someone so thick get into parliament? She makes Corbyn sound like an intellectual colossus, and that is saying something. With people like her in the legislature it is little surprise we are where we are

    Isn't the point of the House of Commons to have ordinary people sitting in it, not just those with IQs of 150?
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 940

    DavidL said:

    Have they got beer and sandwiches at the ready?
    On his salary and pension I would think it more likely to be champagne and caviar.

    I earn decent money but still much prefer proper beer to champagne (most of the time)
  • JohnO said:

    Spent a large amount of time yesterday in the car and had the dubious privilege to listen to Nadine Dorries on R4. How the heck did someone so thick get into parliament? She makes Corbyn sound like an intellectual colossus, and that is saying something. With people like her in the legislature it is little surprise we are where we are

    Marc Francois is even worse
    I don't think I have had the pleasure of hearing him speak. If he is even worse than Nadine I am actually looking forward to it. I have often been accused of being prejudiced for calling members of the ERG stupid, but Nadine certainly didn't disabuse me of my strongly held belief that they really are very thick indeed.
    I can really recommend Francois as topping Nadine in those stakes
    But nothing beats Bridgen!
    Agreed
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,617
    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    I think any hashtag is pretty superfluous: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46958560

    Yet another record high for employment in the UK.

    That's a pretty awesome employment graph.
    image
    It's a bit odd. The graph really doesn't seem to show the loss of 500k jobs after the decision to vote leave at all. It's almost as if it made no difference whatsoever.
    I must say, I'm surprised as well.

    On topic, what is the legal status of Yvette Cooper's proposed amendment? Does it actually do what she wants it to do (stopping a No Deal Brexit?)
    I think it could work, but not in isolation. Her amendment requires the government to give time to her bill which would change the law and require the government to seek a continuation of the article 50 process if a deal is not reached by a certain date. That bill would have to pass as well. Of course it cannot require the EU to agree to that extension and how a government is supposed to persuade them when it doesn't want an extension is also not entirely clear. I think at a minimum the government would also be required to undertake further steps such as a second referendum with remain as an option. If that is not on the table and binding on the government I think the EU would say no. I think she has addressed this but my guess is that yet more legislation would be required to get such a referendum up and running beyond her bill.

    What it does show is that she (or just maybe her husband) have thought through the steps required to undo the structure which has made a no deal Brexit the default. It would not be easy.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 23,625
    Cyclefree said:

    We must surely be getting near to the point where there are more MPs who have been on the government payroll and have resigned than there are MPs left to fill any vacancies, whether in Cabinet or elsewhere.

    In the future, everyone will be Minister for Pensions for 15 minutes.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 3,785
    Cyclefree said:

    We must surely be getting near to the point where there are more MPs who have been on the government payroll and have resigned than there are MPs left to fill any vacancies, whether in Cabinet or elsewhere.

    Indeed. If you are looking to promote a backbencher who has not resigned, been sacked, AND voted for the WA, the choices will be limited, to say the least
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 3,060



    I once flew into Alderney in a small gap in the then prevailing fog. We were in an four-seater air-taxi; the pilot more or less shoved us out and took off as soon as we were clear of the wings in his haste to get back to Guernsey.

    When flying an approach to the carrier in the Sea Harrier we had to dump fuel to get down to hover weight of 800lb. The mighty Shar could only dump down to 2,200lbs (AFAICR) and we generally flew it at 60lbs/minute This meant in an instrument guided or "case 3" approach in poor visibility this lucky naval aviator would be flying through all manner of shit weather discarding precious fuel well before I had a visual on the carrier. My hopes avoiding a ride on the ejection seat and subsequent lengthy swim was entirely in the hands of the AD 2770 TACAN (which had be designed and constructed with no great skill by BAe Systems). It's amazing we aren't all dead.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 1,903

    Spent a large amount of time yesterday in the car and had the dubious privilege to listen to Nadine Dorries on R4. How the heck did someone so thick get into parliament? She makes Corbyn sound like an intellectual colossus, and that is saying something. With people like her in the legislature it is little surprise we are where we are

    Marc Francois is even worse
    I don't think I have had the pleasure of hearing him speak. If he is even worse than Nadine I am actually looking forward to it. I have often been accused of being prejudiced for calling members of the ERG stupid, but Nadine certainly didn't disabuse me of my strongly held belief that they really are very thick indeed.
    I can really recommend Francois as topping Nadine in those stakes
    Perhaps we could start a reality TV show where politicians are required to go into a jungle and carry out IQ and aptitude tests. The politician who gets the lowest scores has to stay in the jungle. I nominate Nadine ( I am sure she will get approval from the whips office) and Mr Thicky Corbyn. We could simultaneously see whether that increased the collective IQ of the House of Commons
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,254
    Cyclefree said:

    We must surely be getting near to the point where there are more MPs who have been on the government payroll and have resigned than there are MPs left to fill any vacancies, whether in Cabinet or elsewhere.

    Someone posted a chart of backbenchers on here yesterday, highlighting those who had resigned, had voted against the Brexit deal or who had been embroiled in scandal. There's only a couple of dozen or so 'clean' backbenchers.
  • eek said:
    Stating the obvious
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 1,903
    houndtang said:

    If they are going to cancel Brexit - and they are - I wish they'd just get on with it.

    I don't share your optimism
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 23,625
    eek said:
    That's all well and good but this is a mess that they have helped make. I have little patience with their passive-aggressive defensiveness.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 12,694
    Re @AlistairMeeks’s request re bitcoin and blockchain (fpt):-

    Paul Donovan, the former Chief Economist of UBS has written quite a lot about bitcoin. He is convinced it is a bubble and there have certainly been a few scandals around it. Quite a lot of people who invest in it don’t understand it, always a very bad sign.

    Blockchain is different. It is, in essence, a way of storing payment and ownership information (very simplistically put) and has the potential for being useful and possibly disruptive in the way that new technologies can be. A very good friend of mine is an expert in this area and does a lot of work with various institutions on how it can be used. But a lot about it is oversold and many who sing its praises don’t really understand it.

    So I would proceed with caution unless you can really understand it. My general view is that there is nothing in this world so complicated that someone who understands it can’t explain it simply. And if they can’t, one of two things is usually happening: they’re either trying to pull the wool over your eyes or they don’t understand it themselves.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 15,235
    Chances are several will go together, hence this market isn't really worth betting on right now.
  • eekeek Posts: 3,181

    eek said:
    That's all well and good but this is a mess that they have helped make. I have little patience with their passive-aggressive defensiveness.
    They could equally just be getting fed up being asked questions when it's outside their control...
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 25,857
    DavidL said:

    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    I think any hashtag is pretty superfluous: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46958560

    Yet another record high for employment in the UK.

    That's a pretty awesome employment graph.
    image
    It's a bit odd. The graph really doesn't seem to show the loss of 500k jobs after the decision to vote leave at all. It's almost as if it made no difference whatsoever.
    I must say, I'm surprised as well.

    On topic, what is the legal status of Yvette Cooper's proposed amendment? Does it actually do what she wants it to do (stopping a No Deal Brexit?)
    I think it could work, but not in isolation. Her amendment requires the government to give time to her bill which would change the law and require the government to seek a continuation of the article 50 process if a deal is not reached by a certain date. That bill would have to pass as well. Of course it cannot require the EU to agree to that extension and how a government is supposed to persuade them when it doesn't want an extension is also not entirely clear. I think at a minimum the government would also be required to undertake further steps such as a second referendum with remain as an option. If that is not on the table and binding on the government I think the EU would say no. I think she has addressed this but my guess is that yet more legislation would be required to get such a referendum up and running beyond her bill.

    What it does show is that she (or just maybe her husband) have thought through the steps required to undo the structure which has made a no deal Brexit the default. It would not be easy.
    It also shows how a second referendum is (as David Herdson points out) a process, not an outcome. It's not at all clear that the Commons will come up with any alternative to Remain, even if it can force through legislation to hold a second referendum.
This discussion has been closed.