Back, with great regret, to Brexit, here is a rum business:
The WA means that any Future Trade Deal which takes NI out of the CU and the SM is impossible, since it would necessitate a border in Ireland and thus not obviate the backstop.
So the FTD must keep NI in the CU/SM. Ergo unless we accept a border in the Irish Sea it must keep the UK as a whole in the CU/SM. This is pretty much Labour's Brexit.
Mrs May's Brexit by contrast - out of both the CU and the SM - is not compatible with the WA.
Now Mrs May's deal in common parlance is the WA plus the aspired to FTD (per the Political Declaration).
Hence, going by its content and implications, Labour should be supporting the May deal and Mrs May herself should be voting against it.
Scenario Bizarrio.
Not true.
All that would be needed would be to agree on a technical solution which circumvented the need for a hard border.
A technical solution is a hard border.
Depends who you ask, or do you think different tax rates, currency etc. constitute a hard border?
I define a hard border to mean systematic checks on the border, however implemented. Different tax rates and currencies are irrelevant.
By that rather eccentric definition it's already a hard border.
On the World at One a lady was saying that her cross channel ferry ticket was voided because the government had purloined all the ferries to transport essential medical supplies in the event of a 'no-deal'. Furthermore the civil service have been told to cancel their holidays...
If there have ever been two Tory Prime Ministers more worthy of the Ceausescu treatment than the last two I've never heard of them.
I’m surprised this isn’t a bigger story, if it is true.
Bigger than one of the lead stories in the leading lunchtime news programme on the country's principal national news radio station?
The key word there is "radio".
Found the story in the Independent, a few days ago. Some context that wasn't present in the original post.
Vince Cable made the same point yesterday. It is noticeable that Lucas sits next to the Lib Dems and is often seen chatting to them.
It is quite strange that the Greens nowadays are in favour of unfettered global free trade systems which end up promoting the transportation of vast quantities of goods from one end of the earth to the other, at goodness knows what environmental cost.
You can tax fuel and things directly, there's no need to rely on arbitrary lines.
record total employment. A record percentage of the population in work. Record levels of vacancies.
Remember that the next time we get told about a 100 jobs going to Amsterdam or Frankfurt.
OTOH we probably do need more immigrants right now. With nearly 900k job vacancies we must be developing skills shortages that are impeding further growth and investment. A generous settlement in respect of EU immigration looks quite sensible provided we can still turn it down a notch if things change.
They were careful to point out that these figures predated the Brexit vote in parliament.
Which Brexit vote? Are you seriously suggesting that May's deal getting the thumb's down changed the position? The markets barely moved.
On the World at One a lady was saying that her cross channel ferry ticket was voided because the government had purloined all the ferries to transport essential medical supplies in the event of a 'no-deal'. Furthermore the civil service have been told to cancel their holidays...
If there have ever been two Tory Prime Ministers more worthy of the Ceausescu treatment than the last two I've never heard of them.
I’m surprised this isn’t a bigger story, if it is true.
Sarah Montague wouldn't have said it if it wasn't accurate. Multiply this lady's experience thousands of times over and there are going to be some very angry people around. Not to mention how it makes us and our government look.
That is why I think the Pause button should be pushed while we do some hard thinking.
What makes you think that Mrs May, if given a pause, would spend it doing hard thinking, rather than running the clock down to the end of the pause?
Well exactly. Her and others. A pause is just an argument for cancellation. There are arguments for that so make those directly. It's fundamentally dishonest.
Time is needed to prepare after a decision but we've had plenty of time for a decision, there's no reason to think more will help.
Ten weeks is sufficient time for the Commons to decide if it wishes to cancel Brexit, accept May's Deal, or some other, or leave without a deal.
It's not sufficient time for businesses and individuals to plan for which of those scenarios is going to happen, though. In fact, I'd argue that we are already well past the last moment when a decision should have been made. We've reached the stage where containers full of goods are soon going to be on the high seas without anyone knowing what customs documentation is going to be required at the other end, or what tariffs will be payable. It completely beggars belief.
Parliament simply isn't used to deadlines being imposed on itself. You have to wonder how on earth many of them manage to move house...
They don't move, they just 'flip'
Could you imagine trying to buy or sell property with them though ? Ye gods...
Remember the stories about ships full of soy beans desperately trying to get to port in time to beat the tariffs in Trump's trade war? I wonder if there will be a little economic boomlet in the next two months where everyone desperately brings forward their purchases in case the entire trade system turns into a pumpkin on Brexit Day.
That seems to be already happening, which is why surplus warehouse space has all been bought up. But the boomlet from stockpiling will be offset by companies deferring capital expenditure and households tightening their belts, so the net effect is probably a downturn.
Back, with great regret, to Brexit, here is a rum business:
The WA means that any Future Trade Deal which takes NI out of the CU and the SM is impossible, since it would necessitate a border in Ireland and thus not obviate the backstop.
So the FTD must keep NI in the CU/SM. Ergo unless we accept a border in the Irish Sea it must keep the UK as a whole in the CU/SM. This is pretty much Labour's Brexit.
Mrs May's Brexit by contrast - out of both the CU and the SM - is not compatible with the WA.
Now Mrs May's deal in common parlance is the WA plus the aspired to FTD (per the Political Declaration).
Hence, going by its content and implications, Labour should be supporting the May deal and Mrs May herself should be voting against it.
Scenario Bizarrio.
Not true.
All that would be needed would be to agree on a technical solution which circumvented the need for a hard border.
A technical solution is a hard border.
Depends who you ask, or do you think different tax rates, currency etc. constitute a hard border?
I define a hard border to mean systematic checks on the border, however implemented. Different tax rates and currencies are irrelevant.
By that rather eccentric definition it's already a hard border.
Back, with great regret, to Brexit, here is a rum business:
The WA means that any Future Trade Deal which takes NI out of the CU and the SM is impossible, since it would necessitate a border in Ireland and thus not obviate the backstop.
So the FTD must keep NI in the CU/SM. Ergo unless we accept a border in the Irish Sea it must keep the UK as a whole in the CU/SM. This is pretty much Labour's Brexit.
Mrs May's Brexit by contrast - out of both the CU and the SM - is not compatible with the WA.
Now Mrs May's deal in common parlance is the WA plus the aspired to FTD (per the Political Declaration).
Hence, going by its content and implications, Labour should be supporting the May deal and Mrs May herself should be voting against it.
Scenario Bizarrio.
Not true.
All that would be needed would be to agree on a technical solution which circumvented the need for a hard border.
A technical solution is a hard border.
Depends who you ask, or do you think different tax rates, currency etc. constitute a hard border?
I define a hard border to mean systematic checks on the border, however implemented. Different tax rates and currencies are irrelevant.
By that rather eccentric definition it's already a hard border.
No it isn't. The key word is systematic.
You don't think there are any systematic checks for collecting alcohol and tobacco duties?
That is why I think the Pause button should be pushed while we do some hard thinking.
What makes you think that Mrs May, if given a pause, would spend it doing hard thinking, rather than running the clock down to the end of the pause?
Well exactly. Her and others. A pause is just an argument for cancellation. There are arguments for that so make those directly. It's fundamentally dishonest.
Time is needed to prepare after a decision but we've had plenty of time for a decision, there's no reason to think more will help.
Ten weeks is sufficient time for the Commons to decide if it wishes to cancel Brexit, accept May's Deal, or some other, or leave without a deal.
It's not sufficient time for businesses and individuals to plan for which of those scenarios is going to happen, though. In fact, I'd argue that we are already well past the last moment when a decision should have been made. We've reached the stage where containers full of goods are soon going to be on the high seas without anyone knowing what customs documentation is going to be required at the other end, or what tariffs will be payable. It completely beggars belief.
Remember the stories about ships full of soy beans desperately trying to get to port in time to beat the tariffs in Trump's trade war? I wonder if there will be a little economic boomlet in the next two months where everyone desperately brings forward their purchases in case the entire trade system turns into a pumpkin on Brexit Day.
Robert suggested that a few days ago. He suggested that stock building could add to GDP in both 2018 Q4 and (especially) 2019 Q1 with a fairly pronounced counter effect as stocks wound down again if Brexit occurred. I am sure that there will be some effect but I don't think many people are buying the major disruption line.
Back, with great regret, to Brexit, here is a rum business:
The WA means that any Future Trade Deal which takes NI out of the CU and the SM is impossible, since it would necessitate a border in Ireland and thus not obviate the backstop.
So the FTD must keep NI in the CU/SM. Ergo unless we accept a border in the Irish Sea it must keep the UK as a whole in the CU/SM. This is pretty much Labour's Brexit.
Mrs May's Brexit by contrast - out of both the CU and the SM - is not compatible with the WA.
Now Mrs May's deal in common parlance is the WA plus the aspired to FTD (per the Political Declaration).
Hence, going by its content and implications, Labour should be supporting the May deal and Mrs May herself should be voting against it.
Scenario Bizarrio.
Not true.
All that would be needed would be to agree on a technical solution which circumvented the need for a hard border.
A technical solution is a hard border.
Depends who you ask, or do you think different tax rates, currency etc. constitute a hard border?
I define a hard border to mean systematic checks on the border, however implemented. Different tax rates and currencies are irrelevant.
By that rather eccentric definition it's already a hard border.
No it isn't. The key word is systematic.
You don't think there are any systematic checks for collecting alcohol and tobacco duties?
Because the EU will never agree to a tech border solution, in order to discourage other countries from thinking the EU will give them similar arrangements if they were to leave. Hence we would be permanently in the customs union.
OK let's run with that.
The WA drives us to permanent membership of the customs union.
More than that, I would suggest - it steers us towards the customs union AND alignment with the single market, assuming we want to protect the regulatory coherence of the UK, i.e. avoid a border in the Irish Sea.
That, as it happens, is more or less Labour's brexit.
Therefore if we wish to leave the EU in a smooth and orderly manner parliament must embrace Labour's position and reject Mrs May's and the ERG's.
And dumb, since it just forces us towards Revocation.
Tbh I don't think Poland would play that game anyway. But it does kind of highlight why delay (aka extension of A50) is no slam dunk.
It is totally crass!
So is he saying if somehow May managed to get a deal through Parliament and it required an extension of a few weeks, as per Dominic Grieve's assessment below, he is encouraging Poland to veto that?
"Article 50 is going to have to be extended. Even if the prime minister got her deal through parliament next week, it is inconceivable that we could do the necessary enabling legislation for us to leave on 29 March."
That is why I think the Pause button should be pushed while we do some hard thinking.
What makes you think that Mrs May, if given a pause, would spend it doing hard thinking, rather than running the clock down to the end of the pause?
Well exactly. Her and others. A pause is just an argument for cancellation. There are arguments for that so make those directly. It's fundamentally dishonest.
Time is needed to prepare after a decision but we've had plenty of time for a decision, there's no reason to think more will help.
Ten weeks is sufficient time for the Commons to decide if it wishes to cancel Brexit, accept May's Deal, or some other, or leave without a deal.
It's not sufficient time for businesses and individuals to plan for which of those scenarios is going to happen, though. In fact, I'd argue that we are already well past the last moment when a decision should have been made. We've reached the stage where containers full of goods are soon going to be on the high seas without anyone knowing what customs documentation is going to be required at the other end, or what tariffs will be payable. It completely beggars belief.
Remember the stories about ships full of soy beans desperately trying to get to port in time to beat the tariffs in Trump's trade war? I wonder if there will be a little economic boomlet in the next two months where everyone desperately brings forward their purchases in case the entire trade system turns into a pumpkin on Brexit Day.
Robert suggested that a few days ago. He suggested that stock building could add to GDP in both 2018 Q4 and (especially) 2019 Q1 with a fairly pronounced counter effect as stocks wound down again if Brexit occurred. I am sure that there will be some effect but I don't think many people are buying the major disruption line.
Fun thing will be if 17.4m frustrated Leavers start a campaign (organised or otherwise) of "Buy EU last......"
On the World at One a lady was saying that her cross channel ferry ticket was voided because the government had purloined all the ferries to transport essential medical supplies in the event of a 'no-deal'. Furthermore the civil service have been told to cancel their holidays...
If there have ever been two Tory Prime Ministers more worthy of the Ceausescu treatment than the last two I've never heard of them.
I’m surprised this isn’t a bigger story, if it is true.
Bigger than one of the lead stories in the leading lunchtime news programme on the country's principal national news radio station?
Roger made it sounds as though a member of the public had called in rather than an actual news report
If all ferries had been cancelled that’d surely be a big story.
On the World at One a lady was saying that her cross channel ferry ticket was voided because the government had purloined all the ferries to transport essential medical supplies in the event of a 'no-deal'. Furthermore the civil service have been told to cancel their holidays...
If there have ever been two Tory Prime Ministers more worthy of the Ceausescu treatment than the last two I've never heard of them.
I’m surprised this isn’t a bigger story, if it is true.
Bigger than one of the lead stories in the leading lunchtime news programme on the country's principal national news radio station?
And dumb, since it just forces us towards Revocation.
Tbh I don't think Poland would play that game anyway. But it does kind of highlight why delay (aka extension of A50) is no slam dunk.
It is totally crass!
So is he saying if somehow May managed to get a deal through Parliament and it required an extension of a few weeks, as per Dominic Grieve's assessment below, he is encouraging Poland to veto that?
"Article 50 is going to have to be extended. Even if the prime minister got her deal through parliament next week, it is inconceivable that we could do the necessary enabling legislation for us to leave on 29 March."
Agreed but I suspect the MP involved is working on the assumption May's WA deal fails.
On the World at One a lady was saying that her cross channel ferry ticket was voided because the government had purloined all the ferries to transport essential medical supplies in the event of a 'no-deal'. Furthermore the civil service have been told to cancel their holidays...
If there have ever been two Tory Prime Ministers more worthy of the Ceausescu treatment than the last two I've never heard of them.
I’m surprised this isn’t a bigger story, if it is true.
Bigger than one of the lead stories in the leading lunchtime news programme on the country's principal national news radio station?
Roger made it sounds as though a member of the public had called in rather than an actual news report
If all ferries had been cancelled that’d surely be a big story.
Somebody had to put their holiday booking back a fortnight. The horror, the horror.....
That is why I think the Pause button should be pushed while we do some hard thinking.
What makes you think that Mrs May, if given a pause, would spend it doing hard thinking, rather than running the clock down to the end of the pause?
Well exactly. Her and others. A pause is just an argument for cancellation. There are arguments for that so make those directly. It's fundamentally dishonest.
Time is needed to prepare after a decision but we've had plenty of time for a decision, there's no reason to think more will help.
Ten weeks is sufficient time for the Commons to decide if it wishes to cancel Brexit, accept May's Deal, or some other, or leave without a deal.
It's not sufficient time for businesses and individuals to plan for which of those scenarios is going to happen, though. In fact, I'd argue that we are already well past the last moment when a decision should have been made. We've reached the stage where containers full of goods are soon going to be on the high seas without anyone knowing what customs documentation is going to be required at the other end, or what tariffs will be payable. It completely beggars belief.
Remember the stories about ships full of soy beans desperately trying to get to port in time to beat the tariffs in Trump's trade war? I wonder if there will be a little economic boomlet in the next two months where everyone desperately brings forward their purchases in case the entire trade system turns into a pumpkin on Brexit Day.
Robert suggested that a few days ago. He suggested that stock building could add to GDP in both 2018 Q4 and (especially) 2019 Q1 with a fairly pronounced counter effect as stocks wound down again if Brexit occurred. I am sure that there will be some effect but I don't think many people are buying the major disruption line.
Fun thing will be if 17.4m frustrated Leavers start a campaign (organised or otherwise) of "Buy EU last......"
Are people not doing that already? I bought a Jag rather than another Audi, I buy South African and southern hemisphere wine rather than French, more British cheeses. Maybe I'm unusual but I have not regarded the EU as friends in the last year or so. Where there's a choice I take it.
record total employment. A record percentage of the population in work. Record levels of vacancies.
Remember that the next time we get told about a 100 jobs going to Amsterdam or Frankfurt.
OTOH we probably do need more immigrants right now. With nearly 900k job vacancies we must be developing skills shortages that are impeding further growth and investment. A generous settlement in respect of EU immigration looks quite sensible provided we can still turn it down a notch if things change.
They were careful to point out that these figures predated the Brexit vote in parliament.
Which Brexit vote? Are you seriously suggesting that May's deal getting the thumb's down changed the position? The markets barely moved.
There look like three bolted on favourites at the Oscars - Roma best foreign language film, Glenn Close best actress, and Spiderverse best animated.
On the border issue and Brexit -
A technological solution consisting of someone filling out a form on their computer in Donegal and those goods ending up in Hartlepool does not a hard border make.
A little hut, or check point on the Buncrana Road checking goods does constitute a hard border.
Exactly. What on earth is the difference between that and administrative arrangements made for documenting and tracking anything else?
What you're proposing is a political solution, not a technical solution.
It has technical elements, but, yes, the issue is political will rather than anything else.
Does it involve systematic checks of what crosses the border or not?
Of course, if you cross the border with a van load of undeclared booze'n'fags, customs officers will be after you. I'd be fascinated to know why this is is somehow different in nature to crossing the border with a van-load of chlorinated chickens, except for the obvious point that it wouldn't be worthwhile for anyone to bother smuggling the latter.
record total employment. A record percentage of the population in work. Record levels of vacancies.
Remember that the next time we get told about a 100 jobs going to Amsterdam or Frankfurt.
OTOH we probably do need more immigrants right now. With nearly 900k job vacancies we must be developing skills shortages that are impeding further growth and investment. A generous settlement in respect of EU immigration looks quite sensible provided we can still turn it down a notch if things change.
They were careful to point out that these figures predated the Brexit vote in parliament.
Which Brexit vote? Are you seriously suggesting that May's deal getting the thumb's down changed the position? The markets barely moved.
That is why I think the Pause button should be pushed while we do some hard thinking.
What makes you think that Mrs May, if given a pause, would spend it doing hard thinking, rather than running the clock down to the end of the pause?
Well exactly. Her and others. A pause is just an argument for cancellation. There are arguments for that so make those directly. It's fundamentally dishonest.
Time is needed to prepare after a decision but we've had plenty of time for a decision, there's no reason to think more will help.
Ten weeks is sufficient time for the Commons to decide if it wishes to cancel Brexit, accept May's Deal, or some other, or leave without a deal.
It's not sufficient time for businesses and individuals to plan for which of those scenarios is going to happen, though. In fact, I'd argue that we are already well past the last moment when a decision should have been made. We've reached the stage where containers full of goods are soon going to be on the high seas without anyone knowing what customs documentation is going to be required at the other end, or what tariffs will be payable. It completely beggars belief.
Remember the stories about ships full of soy beans desperately trying to get to port in time to beat the tariffs in Trump's trade war? I wonder if there will be a little economic boomlet in the next two months where everyone desperately brings forward their purchases in case the entire trade system turns into a pumpkin on Brexit Day.
Robert suggested that a few days ago. He suggested that stock building could add to GDP in both 2018 Q4 and (especially) 2019 Q1 with a fairly pronounced counter effect as stocks wound down again if Brexit occurred. I am sure that there will be some effect but I don't think many people are buying the major disruption line.
Fun thing will be if 17.4m frustrated Leavers start a campaign (organised or otherwise) of "Buy EU last......"
Are people not doing that already? I bought a Jag rather than another Audi, I buy South African and southern hemisphere wine rather than French, more British cheeses. Maybe I'm unusual but I have not regarded the EU as friends in the last year or so. Where there's a choice I take it.
That'll hit them where it hurts - buying Lymeswold instead of Brie de Meaux. The very essence of a Little Englander Scotlander.
On the World at One a lady was saying that her cross channel ferry ticket was voided because the government had purloined all the ferries to transport essential medical supplies in the event of a 'no-deal'. Furthermore the civil service have been told to cancel their holidays...
If there have ever been two Tory Prime Ministers more worthy of the Ceausescu treatment than the last two I've never heard of them.
I’m surprised this isn’t a bigger story, if it is true.
Bigger than one of the lead stories in the leading lunchtime news programme on the country's principal national news radio station?
Roger made it sounds as though a member of the public had called in rather than an actual news report
If all ferries had been cancelled that’d surely be a big story.
Somebody had to put their holiday booking back a fortnight. The horror, the horror.....
Thought experiment:
Somebody had to put their holiday booking back a fortnight, through the direct action of government requisition for government business.
Not so hot? Still it's a Brittany ferry. Some Remoaner central, right?
OK, let's substitute... a plane load of passengers on a budget airline from Teesside Airport to a little way outside Malaga.
There look like three bolted on favourites at the Oscars - Roma best foreign language film, Glenn Close best actress, and Spiderverse best animated.
On the border issue and Brexit -
A technological solution consisting of someone filling out a form on their computer in Donegal and those goods ending up in Hartlepool does not a hard border make.
A little hut, or check point on the Buncrana Road checking goods does constitute a hard border.
I'd agree with all of those. Maybe an outside bet 'Shoplifters' best foreign language film rather than Roma.
I think Banks is an odious individual but I don’t see anything wrong in pointing out the sheer hypocrisy of an MP, in this case Grieve, standing on a manifesto he had no intention of honouring. That’s deception by lying and whilst it happens, its no excuse for it to be condoned.
Ten weeks is sufficient time for the Commons to decide if it wishes to cancel Brexit, accept May's Deal, or some other, or leave without a deal.
It's not sufficient time for businesses and individuals to plan for which of those scenarios is going to happen, though. In fact, I'd argue that we are already well past the last moment when a decision should have been made. We've reached the stage where containers full of goods are soon going to be on the high seas without anyone knowing what customs documentation is going to be required at the other end, or what tariffs will be payable. It completely beggars belief.
Remember the stories about ships full of soy beans desperately trying to get to port in time to beat the tariffs in Trump's trade war? I wonder if there will be a little economic boomlet in the next two months where everyone desperately brings forward their purchases in case the entire trade system turns into a pumpkin on Brexit Day.
Robert suggested that a few days ago. He suggested that stock building could add to GDP in both 2018 Q4 and (especially) 2019 Q1 with a fairly pronounced counter effect as stocks wound down again if Brexit occurred. I am sure that there will be some effect but I don't think many people are buying the major disruption line.
Fun thing will be if 17.4m frustrated Leavers start a campaign (organised or otherwise) of "Buy EU last......"
Are people not doing that already? I bought a Jag rather than another Audi, I buy South African and southern hemisphere wine rather than French, more British cheeses. Maybe I'm unusual but I have not regarded the EU as friends in the last year or so. Where there's a choice I take it.
That'll hit them where it hurts - buying Lymeswold instead of Brie de Meaux. The very essence of a Little Englander Scotlander.
Brie de Meaux tastes only marginally better than the cardboard it comes in and is no loss. Montagnolo, on the other hand, remains a necessity.
There are very few of those names who would be missed if they actually resigned due to the mediocrity of British politicians although I doubt the Remainers resigning will attract anything like the flak that Johnson and Davis did when they resigned.
There look like three bolted on favourites at the Oscars - Roma best foreign language film, Glenn Close best actress, and Spiderverse best animated.
On the border issue and Brexit -
A technological solution consisting of someone filling out a form on their computer in Donegal and those goods ending up in Hartlepool does not a hard border make.
A little hut, or check point on the Buncrana Road checking goods does constitute a hard border.
I'd agree with all of those. Maybe an outside bet 'Shoplifters' best foreign language film rather than Roma.
I appreciate that such choices won't make anyone much money.
Haven't seen the Favourite, looks like one of those films which are bad but which stupid people like to say they like in order to appear clever (cf. The Name of the Rose - the book).
Entirely predictable. It has been suggested there are nearly as many labour mps against a second referendum as for it
Why is why it would be a good idea to have an indicative vote on it. Theresa May should be trying to close off options - closing off a referendum, closing off unilateral revocation, and closing off No Deal - none of which probably is supported by a majority of MPs - leaves just one option on the table... QED.
Exactly. What on earth is the difference between that and administrative arrangements made for documenting and tracking anything else?
What you're proposing is a political solution, not a technical solution.
It has technical elements, but, yes, the issue is political will rather than anything else.
Does it involve systematic checks of what crosses the border or not?
Of course, if you cross the border with a van load of undeclared booze'n'fags, customs officers will be after you. I'd be fascinated to know why this is is somehow different in nature to crossing the border with a van-load of chlorinated chickens, except for the obvious point that it wouldn't be worthwhile for anyone to bother smuggling the latter.
You're either confused or being deliberately obtuse.
Ten weeks is sufficient time for the Commons to decide if it wishes to cancel Brexit, accept May's Deal, or some other, or leave without a deal.
It's not sufficient time for businesses and individuals to plan for which of those scenarios is going to happen, though. In fact, I'd argue that we are already well past the last moment when a decision should have been made. We've reached the stage where containers full of goods are soon going to be on the high seas without anyone knowing what customs documentation is going to be required at the other end, or what tariffs will be payable. It completely beggars belief.
Remember the stories about ships full of soy beans desperately trying to get to port in time to beat the tariffs in Trump's trade war? I wonder if there will be a little economic boomlet in the next two months where everyone desperately brings forward their purchases in case the entire trade system turns into a pumpkin on Brexit Day.
Robert suggested that a few days ago. He suggested that stock building could add to GDP in both 2018 Q4 and (especially) 2019 Q1 with a fairly pronounced counter effect as stocks wound down again if Brexit occurred. I am sure that there will be some effect but I don't think many people are buying the major disruption line.
Fun thing will be if 17.4m frustrated Leavers start a campaign (organised or otherwise) of "Buy EU last......"
Are people not doing that already? I bought a Jag rather than another Audi, I buy South African and southern hemisphere wine rather than French, more British cheeses. Maybe I'm unusual but I have not regarded the EU as friends in the last year or so. Where there's a choice I take it.
That'll hit them where it hurts - buying Lymeswold instead of Brie de Meaux. The very essence of a Little Englander Scotlander.
Brie de Meaux tastes only marginally better than the cardboard it comes in and is no loss. Montagnolo, on the other hand, remains a necessity.
On the World at One a lady was saying that her cross channel ferry ticket was voided because the government had purloined all the ferries to transport essential medical supplies in the event of a 'no-deal'. Furthermore the civil service have been told to cancel their holidays...
If there have ever been two Tory Prime Ministers more worthy of the Ceausescu treatment than the last two I've never heard of them.
I’m surprised this isn’t a bigger story, if it is true.
Bigger than one of the lead stories in the leading lunchtime news programme on the country's principal national news radio station?
Roger made it sounds as though a member of the public had called in rather than an actual news report
If all ferries had been cancelled that’d surely be a big story.
Somebody had to put their holiday booking back a fortnight. The horror, the horror.....
Thought experiment:
Somebody had to put their holiday booking back a fortnight, through the direct action of government requisition for government business.
Not so hot? Still it's a Brittany ferry. Some Remoaner central, right?
OK, let's substitute... a plane load of passengers on a budget airline from Teesside Airport to a little way outside Malaga.
Still good optics?
Which budget airline from Teesside? - the only current flights are KLM (Schipol) and Eastern (Aberdeen)...
There look like three bolted on favourites at the Oscars - Roma best foreign language film, Glenn Close best actress, and Spiderverse best animated.
On the border issue and Brexit -
A technological solution consisting of someone filling out a form on their computer in Donegal and those goods ending up in Hartlepool does not a hard border make.
A little hut, or check point on the Buncrana Road checking goods does constitute a hard border.
I'd agree with all of those. Maybe an outside bet 'Shoplifters' best foreign language film rather than Roma.
World at One was wittering on about Black Panther. I think I only got about half way through it, it was awful.
Exactly. What on earth is the difference between that and administrative arrangements made for documenting and tracking anything else?
What you're proposing is a political solution, not a technical solution.
It has technical elements, but, yes, the issue is political will rather than anything else.
Does it involve systematic checks of what crosses the border or not?
Of course, if you cross the border with a van load of undeclared booze'n'fags, customs officers will be after you. I'd be fascinated to know why this is is somehow different in nature to crossing the border with a van-load of chlorinated chickens, except for the obvious point that it wouldn't be worthwhile for anyone to bother smuggling the latter.
You're either confused or being deliberately obtuse.
Or, more likely, I've come up with a point to which you have no answer, because there is no answer.
There are very few of those names who would be missed if they actually resigned due to the mediocrity of British politicians although I doubt the Remainers resigning will attract anything like the flak that Johnson and Davis did when they resigned.
Just a genuine question.
Are you not concerned that brexit may not happen and especially no deal which seems to be all but ruled out
It's not a hard Irish border - its an EU-Uk border.
Irish exporters will face two of these as they use our motorway network as a cheap, fast land bridge.
One as they enter Wales and another at Calais.
With a bit of luck they will take their trucks to the continent via an alternative route.
Does the U.K. get any value from acting as a transhipping route for Irish trucks?
Besides the odd cup of coffee?
Otherwise it’s congestion, pollution and wear & tear on the roads
Employment in the ports, I guess.
Not a huge amount though
Freight is the bread and butter for the Irish sea crossings; I doubt they are viable with passengers only, outside the holiday period.
More of a problem for Ireland?
Logically there must be the same absolute impact on revenue cross-channel (assuming the Ireland-UK lorries continue regardless), even if a smaller proportion of total traffic.
More people (trips) visit Ireland than travel overseas from Ireland. How this translates into ferry travel in each direction I have no idea.
Yes, although I was thinking proportionally. As @Big_G_NorthWales notes though the costs would be concentrated while the benefits diffuse.
From the loss of tourism I’d assume that although some would fly others would be priced out so holiday at home instead providing some offset for the UK
On the World at One a lady was saying that her cross channel ferry ticket was voided because the government had purloined all the ferries to transport essential medical supplies in the event of a 'no-deal'. Furthermore the civil service have been told to cancel their holidays...
If there have ever been two Tory Prime Ministers more worthy of the Ceausescu treatment than the last two I've never heard of them.
I’m surprised this isn’t a bigger story, if it is true.
Bigger than one of the lead stories in the leading lunchtime news programme on the country's principal national news radio station?
Roger made it sounds as though a member of the public had called in rather than an actual news report
If all ferries had been cancelled that’d surely be a big story.
Somebody had to put their holiday booking back a fortnight. The horror, the horror.....
Thought experiment:
Somebody had to put their holiday booking back a fortnight, through the direct action of government requisition for government business.
Not so hot? Still it's a Brittany ferry. Some Remoaner central, right?
OK, let's substitute... a plane load of passengers on a budget airline from Teesside Airport to a little way outside Malaga.
Still good optics?
Which budget airline from Teesside? - the only current flights are KLM (Schipol) and Eastern (Aberdeen)...
Because the EU will never agree to a tech border solution, in order to discourage other countries from thinking the EU will give them similar arrangements if they were to leave. Hence we would be permanently in the customs union.
OK let's run with that.
The WA drives us to permanent membership of the customs union.
More than that, I would suggest - it steers us towards the customs union AND alignment with the single market, assuming we want to protect the regulatory coherence of the UK, i.e. avoid a border in the Irish Sea.
That, as it happens, is more or less Labour's brexit.
Therefore if we wish to leave the EU in a smooth and orderly manner parliament must embrace Labour's position and reject Mrs May's and the ERG's.
Except it’s not leaving the EU. We are a rule taker, like Norway we’d have to pay to trade, we’d still be subject to the ECJ and we would still have freedom of movement with the immigration apartheid it demand.
I can empathize to an extent - clearly many of the ERG feel that they are born for this moment - but I am hoping for some gritty realism at some point.
And in my book, that means passing the withdrawal agreement and then creating merry hell during the trade talks, agitating for a Canada and simultaneously this most desirable of things, a high tech invisible border in Ireland. IDS and Owen Patterson, to name just two, are very bullish on how feasible that is. There are almost breezy about it.
So, ok, chaps, money where your mouth is. Pass the WA and then go for it - chase the prize!
Ten weeks is sufficient time for the Commons to decide if it wishes to cancel Brexit, accept May's Deal, or some other, or leave without a deal.
It's not sufficient time for businesses and individuals to plan for which of those scenarios is going to happen, though. In fact, I'd argue that we are already well past the last moment when a decision should have been made. We've reached the stage where containers full of goods are soon going to be on the high seas without anyone knowing what customs documentation is going to be required at the other end, or what tariffs will be payable. It completely beggars belief.
Remember the stories about ships full of soy beans desperately trying to get to port in time to beat the tariffs in Trump's trade war? I wonder if there will be a little economic boomlet in the next two months where everyone desperately brings forward their purchases in case the entire trade system turns into a pumpkin on Brexit Day.
Robert suggested that a few days ago. He suggested that stock building could add to GDP in both 2018 Q4 and (especially) 2019 Q1 with a fairly pronounced counter effect as stocks wound down again if Brexit occurred. I am sure that there will be some effect but I don't think many people are buying the major disruption line.
Fun thing will be if 17.4m frustrated Leavers start a campaign (organised or otherwise) of "Buy EU last......"
Are people not doing that already? I bought a Jag rather than another Audi, I buy South African and southern hemisphere wine rather than French, more British cheeses. Maybe I'm unusual but I have not regarded the EU as friends in the last year or so. Where there's a choice I take it.
That'll hit them where it hurts - buying Lymeswold instead of Brie de Meaux. The very essence of a Little Englander Scotlander.
Brie de Meaux tastes only marginally better than the cardboard it comes in and is no loss. Montagnolo, on the other hand, remains a necessity.
Brie de Meaux tastes only marginally better than the cardboard it comes in and is no loss. Montagnolo, on the other hand, remains a necessity.
Eh? Where on earth do you buy your Brie de Meaux? Sainsbury's?
Tbh I haven't for quite a long time, it just always seemed so tasteless. Camembert, on the other hand... I buy my cheeses at a Cheese shop in Dundee. Would you recommend a particular make?
With EU membership costing us gross £350mn a week and based on the Civil Service predominantly working 5 days a week we are talking approximately a single day per year. If that 74 million a year claim is accurate.
Entirely predictable. It has been suggested there are nearly as many labour mps against a second referendum as for it
Why is why it would be a good idea to have an indicative vote on it. Theresa May should be trying to close off options - closing off a referendum, closing off unilateral revocation, and closing off No Deal - none of which probably is supported by a majority of MPs - leaves just one option on the table... QED.
Ten weeks is sufficient time for the Commons to decide if it wishes to cancel Brexit, accept May's Deal, or some other, or leave without a deal.
It's not sufficient time for businesses and individuals to plan for which of those scenarios is going to happen, though. In fact, I'd argue that we are already well past the last moment when a decision should have been made. We've reached the stage where containers full of goods are soon going to be on the high seas without anyone knowing what customs documentation is going to be required at the other end, or what tariffs will be payable. It completely beggars belief.
Remember the stories about ships full of soy beans desperately trying to get to port in time to beat the tariffs in Trump's trade war? I wonder if there will be a little economic boomlet in the next two months where everyone desperately brings forward their purchases in case the entire trade system turns into a pumpkin on Brexit Day.
Robert suggested that a few days ago. He suggested that stock building could add to GDP in both 2018 Q4 and (especially) 2019 Q1 with a fairly pronounced counter effect as stocks wound down again if Brexit occurred. I am sure that there will be some effect but I don't think many people are buying the major disruption line.
Fun thing will be if 17.4m frustrated Leavers start a campaign (organised or otherwise) of "Buy EU last......"
Are people not doing that already? I bought a Jag rather than another Audi, I buy South African and southern hemisphere wine rather than French, more British cheeses. Maybe I'm unusual but I have not regarded the EU as friends in the last year or so. Where there's a choice I take it.
That'll hit them where it hurts - buying Lymeswold instead of Brie de Meaux. The very essence of a Little Englander Scotlander.
Brie de Meaux tastes only marginally better than the cardboard it comes in and is no loss. Montagnolo, on the other hand, remains a necessity.
On the World at One a lady was saying that her cross channel ferry ticket was voided because the government had purloined all the ferries to transport essential medical supplies in the event of a 'no-deal'. Furthermore the civil service have been told to cancel their holidays...
If there have ever been two Tory Prime Ministers more worthy of the Ceausescu treatment than the last two I've never heard of them.
I’m surprised this isn’t a bigger story, if it is true.
Bigger than one of the lead stories in the leading lunchtime news programme on the country's principal national news radio station?
Roger made it sounds as though a member of the public had called in rather than an actual news report
If all ferries had been cancelled that’d surely be a big story.
Somebody had to put their holiday booking back a fortnight. The horror, the horror.....
Thought experiment:
Somebody had to put their holiday booking back a fortnight, through the direct action of government requisition for government business.
Not so hot? Still it's a Brittany ferry. Some Remoaner central, right?
OK, let's substitute... a plane load of passengers on a budget airline from Teesside Airport to a little way outside Malaga.
Still good optics?
Which budget airline from Teesside? - the only current flights are KLM (Schipol) and Eastern (Aberdeen)...
Its a thought experiment.
And Hartlepool is twinned with Roger.
Do I need a better reason?
Seaborne Air, perhaps?
And there I was dreaming of a flight somewhere sunny that was easy as my trips to Schipol....
Entirely predictable. It has been suggested there are nearly as many labour mps against a second referendum as for it
Why is why it would be a good idea to have an indicative vote on it. Theresa May should be trying to close off options - closing off a referendum, closing off unilateral revocation, and closing off No Deal - none of which probably is supported by a majority of MPs - leaves just one option on the table... QED.
It's just so painfully obvious that you are looking for the flaw in the plan. Is there a risk that one of these options might actually win?
There are very few of those names who would be missed if they actually resigned due to the mediocrity of British politicians although I doubt the Remainers resigning will attract anything like the flak that Johnson and Davis did when they resigned.
Just a genuine question.
Are you not concerned that brexit may not happen and especially no deal which seems to be all but ruled out
I don’t see how that is relevant to what I said but I would be very surprised now if Brexit actually happens. HoC is clearly pro Remain and liars like Grieve are clearly intent on giving a two fingered salute to their constituents and the 17.4m who voted Leave.
I have never been in favour of no deal, or May’s deal. I always favoured a FTA arrangement akin to Canada’s. I am happy to go along with no deal if it’s the only way out and notwithstanding the gross negligence of May and Hammond in failing to prepare for it. I could have lived with a Norway type deal after May lost her majority had she focussed on domestic policy. Too late for that now having chased a special relationship with the EU that the EU clearly don’t want.
Sky reporting just now, (and showing the video) that the European Commission states that a no deal outcome will result in a hard border in Ireland has caused anger and concern in Ireland
Coming on top of Poland's comments yesterday, Sky are saying this is ramping up unexpected pressure on Ireland
Brie de Meaux tastes only marginally better than the cardboard it comes in and is no loss. Montagnolo, on the other hand, remains a necessity.
Eh? Where on earth do you buy your Brie de Meaux? Sainsbury's?
Tbh I haven't for quite a long time, it just always seemed so tasteless. Camembert, on the other hand... I buy my cheeses at a Cheese shop in Dundee. Would you recommend a particular make?
The most important thing is that it should have been kept properly (not too cold), and served only when fully mature (and again not too cold).
What I do find amazing is that supermarkets* to a large extent seem to have made huge progress in getting decent cheese on the shelves. You can buy the mass-produced Camembert Le Rustique in supermarkets and it is very good, provided only that you keep it a few days at not too low a temperature. This is a big change from a few years ago, where the cheeses in supermarkets were uniformly awful.
With EU membership costing us gross £350mn a week and based on the Civil Service predominantly working 5 days a week we are talking approximately a single day per year. If that 74 million a year claim is accurate.
Big yawn.
Or looked at another way our public sector currently spends approximately £2bn a day, so slightly under 1 hour's expenditure.
Entirely predictable. It has been suggested there are nearly as many labour mps against a second referendum as for it
Why is why it would be a good idea to have an indicative vote on it. Theresa May should be trying to close off options - closing off a referendum, closing off unilateral revocation, and closing off No Deal - none of which probably is supported by a majority of MPs - leaves just one option on the table... QED.
It's just so painfully obvious that you are looking for the flaw in the plan. Is there a risk that one of these options might actually win?
Of course there's a risk, but we need a decision. Whatever wins - except leaving with no deal - is manageable.
There are very few of those names who would be missed if they actually resigned due to the mediocrity of British politicians although I doubt the Remainers resigning will attract anything like the flak that Johnson and Davis did when they resigned.
Just a genuine question.
Are you not concerned that brexit may not happen and especially no deal which seems to be all but ruled out
I don’t that is relevant to what I said but I would be very surprised now if Brexit actually happens. HoC is clearly pro Remain and liars like Grieve are clearly intent on giving a two fingered salute to their constituents and the 17.4m who voted Leave.
I have never been in favour of no deal, or May’s deal,, or Norway. I always favoured a FTA arrangement akin to Canada’s. I am happy to go along with no deal if it’s the only way out and notwithstanding the gross negligence of May and Hammond in failing to prepare for it.
There look like three bolted on favourites at the Oscars - Roma best foreign language film, Glenn Close best actress, and Spiderverse best animated.
On the border issue and Brexit -
A technological solution consisting of someone filling out a form on their computer in Donegal and those goods ending up in Hartlepool does not a hard border make.
A little hut, or check point on the Buncrana Road checking goods does constitute a hard border.
Entirely predictable. It has been suggested there are nearly as many labour mps against a second referendum as for it
Why is why it would be a good idea to have an indicative vote on it. Theresa May should be trying to close off options - closing off a referendum, closing off unilateral revocation, and closing off No Deal - none of which probably is supported by a majority of MPs - leaves just one option on the table... QED.
It's just so painfully obvious that you are looking for the flaw in the plan. Is there a risk that one of these options might actually win?
Of course there's a risk, but we need a decision. Whatever wins - except leaving with no deal - is manageable.
Completely agree about that (if not the cheese). Vox pops are incredibly easy to manipulate but almost every conversation I have heard in recent days whether in the media or in person amounts to not much more than, "get on with it".
Back, with great regret, to Brexit, here is a rum business:
The WA means that any Future Trade Deal which takes NI out of the CU and the SM is impossible, since it would necessitate a border in Ireland and thus not obviate the backstop.
So the FTD must keep NI in the CU/SM. Ergo unless we accept a border in the Irish Sea it must keep the UK as a whole in the CU/SM. This is pretty much Labour's Brexit.
Mrs May's Brexit by contrast - out of both the CU and the SM - is not compatible with the WA.
Now Mrs May's deal in common parlance is the WA plus the aspired to FTD (per the Political Declaration).
Hence, going by its content and implications, Labour should be supporting the May deal and Mrs May herself should be voting against it.
Scenario Bizarrio.
Not true.
All that would be needed would be to agree on a technical solution which circumvented the need for a hard border.
A technical solution is a hard border.
Depends who you ask, or do you think different tax rates, currency etc. constitute a hard border?
I define a hard border to mean systematic checks on the border, however implemented. Different tax rates and currencies are irrelevant.
By that rather eccentric definition it's already a hard border.
Different tax rates, currencies, and legal systems have more of an impact on peoples' lives than customs.
Sky reporting just now, (and showing the video) that the European Commission states that a no deal outcome will result in a hard border in Ireland has caused anger and concern in Ireland
Coming on top of Poland's comments yesterday, Sky are saying this is ramping up unexpected pressure on Ireland
I'm sure the EU will be happy to extend Article 50 to allow enough time for Ireland to have a Referendum to Leave too.
There look like three bolted on favourites at the Oscars - Roma best foreign language film, Glenn Close best actress, and Spiderverse best animated.
On the border issue and Brexit -
A technological solution consisting of someone filling out a form on their computer in Donegal and those goods ending up in Hartlepool does not a hard border make.
A little hut, or check point on the Buncrana Road checking goods does constitute a hard border.
There look like three bolted on favourites at the Oscars - Roma best foreign language film, Glenn Close best actress, and Spiderverse best animated.
On the border issue and Brexit -
A technological solution consisting of someone filling out a form on their computer in Donegal and those goods ending up in Hartlepool does not a hard border make.
A little hut, or check point on the Buncrana Road checking goods does constitute a hard border.
Makeup and Hairstyling - Vice
I am really looking forward to seeing Vice this weekend. It looks fantastic and I loved the Big Short.
Sky reporting just now, (and showing the video) that the European Commission states that a no deal outcome will result in a hard border in Ireland has caused anger and concern in Ireland
Coming on top of Poland's comments yesterday, Sky are saying this is ramping up unexpected pressure on Ireland
Ireland have been a willing servant to the EU for arriving at this current impasse.
Except it’s not leaving the EU. We are a rule taker, like Norway we’d have to pay to trade, we’d still be subject to the ECJ and we would still have freedom of movement with the immigration apartheid it demands.
Hmm, the one in bold is rather fruity. Suggest 'bias'.
But OK on your main point, that it's not leaving? It is. It takes us outside of the EU. It ticks that all important true or false box.
It is not going very far, I grant you, and I can see the objections to it as an end state, but it IS leaving. You prove that with your own description of us as a 'rule taker'. If it were not leaving we would be a rule MAKER.
Also, we could be out of the CAP and the CFP. Control of our own pigs & cows, control of our own fish.
This latter - fish - I gather is a big reason why many people voted Leave in 2016.
There are very few of those names who would be missed if they actually resigned due to the mediocrity of British politicians although I doubt the Remainers resigning will attract anything like the flak that Johnson and Davis did when they resigned.
Just a genuine question.
Are you not concerned that brexit may not happen and especially no deal which seems to be all but ruled out
I don’t see how that is relevant to what I said but I would be very surprised now if Brexit actually happens. HoC is clearly pro Remain and liars like Grieve are clearly intent on giving a two fingered salute to their constituents and the 17.4m who voted Leave.
I have never been in favour of no deal, or May’s deal. I always favoured a FTA arrangement akin to Canada’s. I am happy to go along with no deal if it’s the only way out and notwithstanding the gross negligence of May and Hammond in failing to prepare for it. I could have lived with a Norway type deal after May lost her majority had she focussed on domestic policy. Too late for that now having chased a special relationship with the EU that the EU clearly don’t want.
The Leavers have failed to negotiate anything like the 'sunlit uplands' that would be the 'easiest' deal because 'they need us more than we need them'. Instead they ended up resigning serially. Don't blame the Remainer MPs who are trying to salvage something from the mess.
Because the EU will never agree to a tech border solution, in order to discourage other countries from thinking the EU will give them similar arrangements if they were to leave. Hence we would be permanently in the customs union.
OK let's run with that.
The WA drives us to permanent membership of the customs union.
More than that, I would suggest - it steers us towards the customs union AND alignment with the single market, assuming we want to protect the regulatory coherence of the UK, i.e. avoid a border in the Irish Sea.
That, as it happens, is more or less Labour's brexit.
Therefore if we wish to leave the EU in a smooth and orderly manner parliament must embrace Labour's position and reject Mrs May's and the ERG's.
Except it’s not leaving the EU. We are a rule taker, like Norway we’d have to pay to trade, we’d still be subject to the ECJ and we would still have freedom of movement with the immigration apartheid it demand.
Norway pay a fraction of what we pay. Nor are they just a rule taker. They have input into every level of decision making over new regulations bar the final vote and can influence rues far more from their position outside the EU than we can from inside.
Nor are they subject to the ECJ.
Basically the only thing you are right about is freedom of movement which I personally think is a good thing not a bad one.
But with the backstop there’s no deal so a hard border
The EU’s time would be better spent looking for a solution which might not be 100% perfect but would get us there and be improved on over time
The UK has already agreed a deal with the backstop. The reasons it can't get through parliament are many and varied.
the PM is not the U.K.
She needs to get Parliament’s ratification
Removing the backstop doesn't secure a parliamentary majority.
Neither of us knows that
It gets the ERG and DUP and I double that Grieve will want to be responsible for No Deal. (This is obviously an opinion not a fact)
Why would the ERG agree to pay £39bn for two years as a "vassal state" and no guarantee of a deal to their liking at the end of it when their preferred option of no deal is within reach? It would be a total capitulation from them.
I don’t know what the ERG are so worried the EU will do during those two years that the U.K. couldn’t immediately repeal afterwards, if there were a problem.
It’s not like they’ll immediately legislate for death of the firstborn.
If death of the firstborn were required to secure Brexit, the ERG would see that as an acceptable price to pay.
As a second son and father of a daughter if, as is traditional, it were restricted to first born males...
Sky reporting just now, (and showing the video) that the European Commission states that a no deal outcome will result in a hard border in Ireland has caused anger and concern in Ireland
Coming on top of Poland's comments yesterday, Sky are saying this is ramping up unexpected pressure on Ireland
Ireland have been a willing servant to the EU for arriving at this current impasse.
On the World at One a lady was saying that her cross channel ferry ticket was voided because the government had purloined all the ferries to transport essential medical supplies in the event of a 'no-deal'. Furthermore the civil service have been told to cancel their holidays...
If there have ever been two Tory Prime Ministers more worthy of the Ceausescu treatment than the last two I've never heard of them.
I’m surprised this isn’t a bigger story, if it is true.
Bigger than one of the lead stories in the leading lunchtime news programme on the country's principal national news radio station?
Roger made it sounds as though a member of the public had called in rather than an actual news report
If all ferries had been cancelled that’d surely be a big story.
Somebody had to put their holiday booking back a fortnight. The horror, the horror.....
More #ComicalMark
The horror is reaching the point where the government is commandeering ferry places as the only way medicines might be able to reach people in need. Throwing people off their bookings is the unfortunate consequence.
Except it’s not leaving the EU. We are a rule taker, like Norway we’d have to pay to trade, we’d still be subject to the ECJ and we would still have freedom of movement with the immigration apartheid it demands.
Hmm, the one in bold is rather fruity. Suggest 'bias'.
But OK on your main point, that it's not leaving? It is. It takes us outside of the EU. It ticks that all important true or false box.
It is not going very far, I grant you, and I can see the objections to it as an end state, but it IS leaving. You prove that with your own description of us as a 'rule taker'. If it were not leaving we would be a rule MAKER.
Also, we could be out of the CAP and the CFP. Control of our own pigs & cows, control of our own fish.
This latter - fish - I gather is a big reason why many people voted Leave in 2016.
We would be out of the CAP and CFP in theory although whether we’d actually regain control of our fishing in our own territorial waters in practice is debatable given the stated intentions of countries like Spain who would no doubt have the backing of the EU. Fishing is an important topic to Leavers although whether any would have voted Remain if the chance to regain control of fishing had been off the table, I rather doubt.
Being subject to the Single Market rules denies us the ability to regulate our domestic economy as we see it and that is 80% of our GDP. Only the EU requires that. All exporters have to comply with the trade regs of the country to whom they export. That applies equally to trading with the EU in the SM or with the US under WTO. The latter doesn’t involve regulation of our domestic economy though.
SM regs are set by QMV now so being in gives us a voice but doesn’t necessarily make us a rule maker if we are outvoted, which happens.
What do you call having rules for immigration from non EU countries and not for EU members if not apartheid ?
If the EU thinks no deal means a hard border in Ireland (Guardian today) then why can't a deal even contemplate the same possibility. Which is better to envisage: an unmanaged and unorganised hard border or a managed and organised one?
Plus of course, if by any chance 'no deal' does not need a hard border, what is all the fuss about?
They don't have to be a problem. Intelligently used and implemented judiciously they can be a valuable tool in the democratic toolbox, it's true. You and I probably have different perceptions though about the degree of intelligence and judiciousness evident in the Brexit referendum.
By the way, what do you do if the result of a referendum turns out to be impossible to implement?
You have an independent system to screen referendums first. They can advise either on a way to rephrase it so it is not impossible or reject it and explain why. It really isn't rocket science.
The important bit is making sure it is independent and done in the full glare of the public eye.
But that wasn't done, Richard. And the result turned out to be inoperable, as one might have predicted. So what now?
Comments
https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/brexit-no-deal-ferries-portsmouth-poole-plymouth-brittany-department-for-transport-a8740131.html
Ticket's not "voided". Some people have been rebooked on different crossing, and there has been extra capacity added into the schedules.
The WA drives us to permanent membership of the customs union.
More than that, I would suggest - it steers us towards the customs union AND alignment with the single market, assuming we want to protect the regulatory coherence of the UK, i.e. avoid a border in the Irish Sea.
That, as it happens, is more or less Labour's brexit.
Therefore if we wish to leave the EU in a smooth and orderly manner parliament must embrace Labour's position and reject Mrs May's and the ERG's.
So is he saying if somehow May managed to get a deal through Parliament and it required an extension of a few weeks, as per Dominic Grieve's assessment below, he is encouraging Poland to veto that?
"Article 50 is going to have to be extended. Even if the prime minister got her deal through parliament next week, it is inconceivable that we could do the necessary enabling legislation for us to leave on 29 March."
Edit: Well, there is one vital difference: smuggling tobacco and booze is highly profitable.
If all ferries had been cancelled that’d surely be a big story.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0002568
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0002568
Penultimate item on the World at One!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0002568
On the border issue and Brexit -
A technological solution consisting of someone filling out a form on their computer in Donegal and those goods ending up in Hartlepool does not a hard border make.
A little hut, or check point on the Buncrana Road checking goods does constitute a hard border.
https://twitter.com/Arron_banks/status/1087723536842739712
EnglanderScotlander.Maybe someone with a Playstation controller as their avatar...?
Somebody had to put their holiday booking back a fortnight, through the direct action of government requisition for government business.
Not so hot? Still it's a Brittany ferry. Some Remoaner central, right?
OK, let's substitute... a plane load of passengers on a budget airline from Teesside Airport to a little way outside Malaga.
Still good optics?
Haven't seen the Favourite, looks like one of those films which are bad but which stupid people like to say they like in order to appear clever (cf. The Name of the Rose - the book).
Perhaps Mahershala Ali as best supporting actor?
Markets expecting no deal off the table very soon, maybe
Are you not concerned that brexit may not happen and especially no deal which seems to be all but ruled out
From the loss of tourism I’d assume that although some would fly others would be priced out so holiday at home instead providing some offset for the UK
And Hartlepool is twinned with Roger.
Do I need a better reason?
I can empathize to an extent - clearly many of the ERG feel that they are born for this moment - but I am hoping for some gritty realism at some point.
And in my book, that means passing the withdrawal agreement and then creating merry hell during the trade talks, agitating for a Canada and simultaneously this most desirable of things, a high tech invisible border in Ireland. IDS and Owen Patterson, to name just two, are very bullish on how feasible that is. There are almost breezy about it.
So, ok, chaps, money where your mouth is. Pass the WA and then go for it - chase the prize!
Big yawn.
I have never been in favour of no deal, or May’s deal. I always favoured a FTA arrangement akin to Canada’s. I am happy to go along with no deal if it’s the only way out and notwithstanding the gross negligence of May and Hammond in failing to prepare for it. I could have lived with a Norway type deal after May lost her majority had she focussed on domestic policy. Too late for that now having chased a special relationship with the EU that the EU clearly don’t want.
Coming on top of Poland's comments yesterday, Sky are saying this is ramping up unexpected pressure on Ireland
What I do find amazing is that supermarkets* to a large extent seem to have made huge progress in getting decent cheese on the shelves. You can buy the mass-produced Camembert Le Rustique in supermarkets and it is very good, provided only that you keep it a few days at not too low a temperature. This is a big change from a few years ago, where the cheeses in supermarkets were uniformly awful.
* Except Sainsbury's, in my experience.
Wot?
They have made their bed.
But OK on your main point, that it's not leaving? It is. It takes us outside of the EU. It ticks that all important true or false box.
It is not going very far, I grant you, and I can see the objections to it as an end state, but it IS leaving. You prove that with your own description of us as a 'rule taker'. If it were not leaving we would be a rule MAKER.
Also, we could be out of the CAP and the CFP. Control of our own pigs & cows, control of our own fish.
This latter - fish - I gather is a big reason why many people voted Leave in 2016.
Why should they? I mean, it's not like they're supposed to be running the country or anything....
Nor are they subject to the ECJ.
Basically the only thing you are right about is freedom of movement which I personally think is a good thing not a bad one.
The horror is reaching the point where the government is commandeering ferry places as the only way medicines might be able to reach people in need. Throwing people off their bookings is the unfortunate consequence.
Being subject to the Single Market rules denies us the ability to regulate our domestic economy as we see it and that is 80% of our GDP. Only the EU requires that. All exporters have to comply with the trade regs of the country to whom they export. That applies equally to trading with the EU in the SM or with the US under WTO. The latter doesn’t involve regulation of our domestic economy though.
SM regs are set by QMV now so being in gives us a voice but doesn’t necessarily make us a rule maker if we are outvoted, which happens.
What do you call having rules for immigration from non EU countries and not for EU members if not apartheid ?
Plus of course, if by any chance 'no deal' does not need a hard border, what is all the fuss about?
I wonder if we are over complicating things