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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Govey maintaining and extending his lead in the next CON leade

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited January 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Govey maintaining and extending his lead in the next CON leader betting

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  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,088
    First!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,088
    "Maintaining"?? He's shot to the top after his student union speech in the Commons just recently
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    edited January 2019
    Absurd.

    It will be Sajid.

    We already know he will be useless, as he lacks judgment and gravitas.

    But he is not a treacherous boffin like Gove, or a narcissistic shitbag like Johnson, and not an embalmed corpse like Hunt.

    The media will get excited for about 5 minutes that we have a Muslim-born PM, but his essential uselessness will shine through.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Walker, and yet, still better than Corbyn.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812

    Mr. Walker, and yet, still better than Corbyn.

    Sure.

    But not as good as McDonnell or Thornberry. Both would beat Javid.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    Honestly, I have given up pretending to predict this one. I am green on the leading likely people plus a few wildcards.

    Hunt would pay well.

    Hague as interim PM in an emergency would pay even better.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Walker, beat Javid? Impossible. They believe in kinder, gentler politics. Corbyn's lot are known for their pacifism.
  • FPT

    On the Cooper amendment that defers brexit until the 31st December does anyone think the public will be pleased to have this indecision continuing until the end of this year ? It is plainly silly and of course the EU will only agree an extension for a definitive purpose, not so we can get our ducks in a row

    Reading the thread it seems the general opinion is that labour will support it but the last I heard was that John McDonnell was in discussion to reduce the time to 3 and a half months.

    But ultimately this is the mps can kicking in their own attempt to prevent brexit
  • FPT:
    "Democracy" keeps being mentioned by posters such as Mr. Tyndall. The slight problem is that trying to nail the democracy jelly to the wall is somewhat problematic. There are many different interpretations of what it means. Communists have a very different interpretation from those in liberal western "democracies".

    Our own democracy is highly flawed. We have an hereditary Head of State. We have an unelected upper chamber in parliament. However, it largely works, mainly because it is founded on the basis of law, with a distinct separation of powers between the judiciary (remember those traitors of The People!) and the legislature. The executive is unfortunately too heavily entwined with the legislature in my opinion, but that is another matter.

    So what of Brexit? Is what is happening democratic or undemocratic? My own reading, which I accept is not entirely impartial is that parliament is doing its job to some extent. We have a representative democracy based on delegated responsibility to MPs. The electorate chose Brexit by a small margin. It then decided, in its collective wisdom to give us a hung parliament, rather than overwhelming power to Mrs May, who, at the time of the election at least, very much gave the impression of being a convert to Brexit as a concept. So there we have it, the people decided, but they them decided to make it difficult. As Churchill might have said "The people have spoken, the bastards... but they don't seem to know what they want"
  • Michael Gove would be my choice of leader and if not Chancellor. His tour de force traducing Corbyn last week at the dispatch box last week was a masterclass and the labour mps knew it as you watched their horrified expressions

    And on another subject does any agree with me that Davos is an affront to decency and demonstrates all that is wrong with big business and obscene wealth

    Adam Boulton on Sky this morning said it costs a CEO $250,000 to attend
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083

    FPT

    On the Cooper amendment that defers brexit until the 31st December does anyone think the public will be pleased to have this indecision continuing until the end of this year ? It is plainly silly and of course the EU will only agree an extension for a definitive purpose, not so we can get our ducks in a row

    Reading the thread it seems the general opinion is that labour will support it but the last I heard was that John McDonnell was in discussion to reduce the time to 3 and a half months.

    But ultimately this is the mps can kicking in their own attempt to prevent brexit

    I’m sure the public won’t be pleased. But that goes for any outcome available in the real world. The least displeasing in the short term is the withdrawal agreement as drafted, but only because it defers the moment of admitting the reality (we don’t have a plan for leaving SM/CU type arrangements) for a little while. The political process is all about avoiding being the person who has to take responsibility for choosing between different unpopular options.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    Honestly, I have given up pretending to predict this one. I am green on the leading likely people plus a few wildcards.

    Hunt would pay well.

    Hague as interim PM in an emergency would pay even better.

    Liddington as interim PM while the Tories fight amongst themselves.

    Then nearly anyone as next leader - they are all pygmies so I don't think it really matters - Gove can just about win ERG votes that others won't get so I think that's why he's current favourite but no one stands out to even Major's standard...
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812

    Michael Gove would be my choice of leader and if not Chancellor. His tour de force traducing Corbyn last week at the dispatch box last week was a masterclass and the labour mps knew it as you watched their horrified expressions

    And on another subject does any agree with me that Davos is an affront to decency and demonstrates all that is wrong with big business and obscene wealth

    Adam Boulton on Sky this morning said it costs a CEO $250,000 to attend

    You watch too much telly.

    I saw Gove’s speech. It was garbage. Although it was a well overdue catalogue of Corbyn’s essential awfulness, there was not an original or interesting thought in there.

    I agree though that Gove has earned the right to be CoE.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    IanB2 said:

    "Maintaining"?? He's shot to the top after his student union speech in the Commons just recently

    A good barnstorming conference speech but not likely to have helped the government reach out to the Labour benches. Gove needs to get Brexit out of the way before the contest or he'll face too many awkward questions about how to get out of the hole he dug.

    OGH's OP: [Boris's] time as Foreign Secretary hardly reinforced his case to be next leader. He’s now lost a bit of weight and tidied his hair – moves that look like preparation for a contest.

    Boris has not tidied his hair: he is losing it. Look at recent clips of him speaking in the Commons, where the overhead cameras show an awful lot of scalp. Boris is reported to be back in bed with Lynton Crosby so must be a runner, but I still think he will be withdrawn at the start. Boris's back catalogue of colourful quotes mean he is (and the party under his leadership would be) vulnerable to the same attacks CCHQ has mounted against Jeremy Corbyn, as his fellow and rival Tory candidates will helpfully remind backbenchers.

    As with the US Democrat primaries, there are too many potential candidates, none with outstanding claims. I'm keeping Hammond onside as a dark horse if May goes before Brexit.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    How the hell is Amber Rudd in the mix ?

    She should be 50-1 plus here, how on earth is she going to win a poll of the members.
  • BudGBudG Posts: 711
    FPT
    BudG said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:


    And there’s not a cat in Hell’s chance the EU will agree to it, which rather puts a spanner in the works.

    Hmm, I think there is a good chance they might. Or they'll say they will we'll need to have a General Election.. so we could get one of those.
    What would be the downside for the EU in agreeing that we could have another few weeks until the EU elections, even if it was just to give Parliament another few weeks to try to come to some agreement?
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,282
    I think the reason that Gove is a reasonable bet is that there's several plausible scenarios in which he becomes leader.

    1.) Brexit caretaker - May's deal is voted through on the promise that she goes and is replaced by a Brexiteer for the next stage of negotiations. Gove is pretty much the only leading Brexiteer who wouldn't send the remain wing into open revolt - so emerges as a compromise until Brexit is done at least.

    2.) Brexiteer spoiler - there's an open contest and the remain wing calculate that while they could get a Rudd, or even a Javid onto the members ballot against a Johnson, Raab or Mordaunt, they'd be trounced. So swing behind Gove as a spoiler who can beat them - and isn't prone to indulging in lunacy.

    3.) Readiness in opposition. There's an election reasonably soon. Labour forms a minority government - Gove is elected as a safe pair of hands for when it all goes tits up.

    4.) Wins a straight contest. He may not be liked much in the country, but is within the Tory Party - and no candidate who can plausibly win the membership can claim to be likely to win back Labour leaning remain voters - so his big negative doesn't really matter compared to his opponents. Would also probably get the Mail's backing.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,774

    FPT

    On the Cooper amendment that defers brexit until the 31st December does anyone think the public will be pleased to have this indecision continuing until the end of this year ? It is plainly silly and of course the EU will only agree an extension for a definitive purpose, not so we can get our ducks in a row

    Reading the thread it seems the general opinion is that labour will support it but the last I heard was that John McDonnell was in discussion to reduce the time to 3 and a half months.

    But ultimately this is the mps can kicking in their own attempt to prevent brexit

    50% support deferral, 50% oppose it, according to Sky Data, almost identical to the 49% who support Brexit, and the 51% who oppose it.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,774
    Amber Rudd and David Davis can be written off.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    MJW said:

    I think the reason that Gove is a reasonable bet is that there's several plausible scenarios in which he becomes leader.

    1.) Brexit caretaker - May's deal is voted through on the promise that she goes and is replaced by a Brexiteer for the next stage of negotiations. Gove is pretty much the only leading Brexiteer who wouldn't send the remain wing into open revolt - so emerges as a compromise until Brexit is done at least.

    2.) Brexiteer spoiler - there's an open contest and the remain wing calculate that while they could get a Rudd, or even a Javid onto the members ballot against a Johnson, Raab or Mordaunt, they'd be trounced. So swing behind Gove as a spoiler who can beat them - and isn't prone to indulging in lunacy.

    3.) Readiness in opposition. There's an election reasonably soon. Labour forms a minority government - Gove is elected as a safe pair of hands for when it all goes tits up.

    4.) Wins a straight contest. He may not be liked much in the country, but is within the Tory Party - and no candidate who can plausibly win the membership can claim to be likely to win back Labour leaning remain voters - so his big negative doesn't really matter compared to his opponents. Would also probably get the Mail's backing.

    Boris Johnson and Amber Rudd both look like better lays than Gove at current prices.
  • Michael Gove would be my choice of leader and if not Chancellor. His tour de force traducing Corbyn last week at the dispatch box last week was a masterclass and the labour mps knew it as you watched their horrified expressions

    And on another subject does any agree with me that Davos is an affront to decency and demonstrates all that is wrong with big business and obscene wealth

    Adam Boulton on Sky this morning said it costs a CEO $250,000 to attend

    You watch too much telly.

    I saw Gove’s speech. It was garbage. Although it was a well overdue catalogue of Corbyn’s essential awfulness, there was not an original or interesting thought in there.

    I agree though that Gove has earned the right to be CoE.
    just a query, what has watching telly got to do with my comment on Gove. If I didn't I would not have seen it.

    And the immediate 100% roar of support from the backbenches was the first time they have united all together for a long time
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    And on another subject does any agree with me that Davos is an affront to decency and demonstrates all that is wrong with big business and obscene wealth

    Davos is a ruthless tyrant with millions of daleks to enforce his slightest whim. There is nothing democratic about him.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Yes please!
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited January 2019

    FPT

    On the Cooper amendment that defers brexit until the 31st December does anyone think the public will be pleased to have this indecision continuing until the end of this year ?

    "Vote Labour for more Brexit for longer"

    Hmm..
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The next Conservative leader market and next Prime Minister market are slowly decoupling. Aside from Michael Gove, who could command the confidence of the House of Commons and get chosen as leader of the Conservative party in its current Brexit-addled state?

    If the leadership contest comes in the near future, the commitments the candidates would need to make to win would break the Conservative party.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    Santander to close 140 branches
  • Sean_F said:

    FPT

    On the Cooper amendment that defers brexit until the 31st December does anyone think the public will be pleased to have this indecision continuing until the end of this year ? It is plainly silly and of course the EU will only agree an extension for a definitive purpose, not so we can get our ducks in a row

    Reading the thread it seems the general opinion is that labour will support it but the last I heard was that John McDonnell was in discussion to reduce the time to 3 and a half months.

    But ultimately this is the mps can kicking in their own attempt to prevent brexit

    50% support deferral, 50% oppose it, according to Sky Data, almost identical to the 49% who support Brexit, and the 51% who oppose it.
    I think the problem is the time - 31st December with mps all agreeing what they do not like but not agreeing what they do. A short delay is inevitable in my opinion but the EU elections start on the 18th April, so I would expect that early April would be the most the EU would agree to
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812

    Michael Gove would be my choice of leader and if not Chancellor. His tour de force traducing Corbyn last week at the dispatch box last week was a masterclass and the labour mps knew it as you watched their horrified expressions

    And on another subject does any agree with me that Davos is an affront to decency and demonstrates all that is wrong with big business and obscene wealth

    Adam Boulton on Sky this morning said it costs a CEO $250,000 to attend

    You watch too much telly.

    I saw Gove’s speech. It was garbage. Although it was a well overdue catalogue of Corbyn’s essential awfulness, there was not an original or interesting thought in there.

    I agree though that Gove has earned the right to be CoE.
    just a query, what has watching telly got to do with my comment on Gove. If I didn't I would not have seen it.

    And the immediate 100% roar of support from the backbenches was the first time they have united all together for a long time
    Someone up thread called it a student union speech, which is right. It’s easy to get an applause when you’re hammering the crapness of Corbyn.

    Anyway, my point is:
    - one speech is not enough to make a PM.
    - the speech wasn’t actually all that good.
  • Pulpstar said:

    How the hell is Amber Rudd in the mix ?

    She should be 50-1 plus here, how on earth is she going to win a poll of the members.

    Agree on that. The best way to look at this is (a) to work backwards and (b) eliminate who is likely to be unacceptable.

    Whoever is the grassroots think is the most trusted on Brexit will win, simple as. On the "ah yes but MPs choose the two candidates to go through" (a) as a thread from a few weeks back stated, the bloc of the vote against May suggests Brexiteers can get their favoured candidate into the second round and (b) enough of the MPs are primarily motivated by concern over their jobs where they wouldn't risk putting two remainer / untrusted candidates to the membership.

    If I was looking at this list above, I say Gove is too distrusted, Johnson is too hated by the other side (and the ERG probably realise that is the case to back him) and Raab is going the same way, Hunt / Javid are seen as flipfloppers and unreliable, Rudd is a joke and Davis is too old. Mourdant is out because she is seen as having "betrayed" Brexit by staying in the Cabinet.

    Look for anyone else who is quite hardline Brexit
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,881

    Boris is reported to be back in bed with Lynton Crosby so must be a runner, but I still think he will be withdrawn at the start.

    There will be an election in Australia this year, in which Sir Lynton will be expected to serve in his customary role as the emotional support animal of the Liberal Party, so his calendar might be full.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    The next Conservative leader market and next Prime Minister market are slowly decoupling. Aside from Michael Gove, who could command the confidence of the House of Commons and get chosen as leader of the Conservative party in its current Brexit-addled state?

    If the leadership contest comes in the near future, the commitments the candidates would need to make to win would break the Conservative party.

    Hunt maybe.

  • Soubry had Leaver support in 2017. Lib Dem leaver support..
    image
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,774

    Sean_F said:

    FPT

    On the Cooper amendment that defers brexit until the 31st December does anyone think the public will be pleased to have this indecision continuing until the end of this year ? It is plainly silly and of course the EU will only agree an extension for a definitive purpose, not so we can get our ducks in a row

    Reading the thread it seems the general opinion is that labour will support it but the last I heard was that John McDonnell was in discussion to reduce the time to 3 and a half months.

    But ultimately this is the mps can kicking in their own attempt to prevent brexit

    50% support deferral, 50% oppose it, according to Sky Data, almost identical to the 49% who support Brexit, and the 51% who oppose it.
    I think the problem is the time - 31st December with mps all agreeing what they do not like but not agreeing what they do. A short delay is inevitable in my opinion but the EU elections start on the 18th April, so I would expect that early April would be the most the EU would agree to
    It's arse about face. MP's need to agree a course of action and then ask for the extension (assuming it's necessary to implement the decision) rather than ask for an extension so that they can defer making a decision.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Anyway I've put my money against Amber today (Next Tory leader) :

    Other
    +£43.32

    Boris Johnson
    -£100.52

    Amber Rudd
    -£300.00
  • Michael Gove would be my choice of leader and if not Chancellor. His tour de force traducing Corbyn last week at the dispatch box last week was a masterclass and the labour mps knew it as you watched their horrified expressions

    And on another subject does any agree with me that Davos is an affront to decency and demonstrates all that is wrong with big business and obscene wealth

    Adam Boulton on Sky this morning said it costs a CEO $250,000 to attend

    You watch too much telly.

    I saw Gove’s speech. It was garbage. Although it was a well overdue catalogue of Corbyn’s essential awfulness, there was not an original or interesting thought in there.

    I agree though that Gove has earned the right to be CoE.
    just a query, what has watching telly got to do with my comment on Gove. If I didn't I would not have seen it.

    And the immediate 100% roar of support from the backbenches was the first time they have united all together for a long time
    Someone up thread called it a student union speech, which is right. It’s easy to get an applause when you’re hammering the crapness of Corbyn.

    Anyway, my point is:
    - one speech is not enough to make a PM.
    - the speech wasn’t actually all that good.
    I do agree with your points but for me and my family we very much like the work Gove is doing in his present role
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Pulpstar said:

    How the hell is Amber Rudd in the mix ?

    She should be 50-1 plus here, how on earth is she going to win a poll of the members.

    There might not be a poll of the members. Depending when and how May goes, there might be pressure on the second candidate to withdraw in order to avoid a contest, as happened with Leadsom last time.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited January 2019

    Pulpstar said:

    How the hell is Amber Rudd in the mix ?

    She should be 50-1 plus here, how on earth is she going to win a poll of the members.

    There might not be a poll of the members. Depending when and how May goes, there might be pressure on the second candidate to withdraw in order to avoid a contest, as happened with Leadsom last time.
    The idea that the 'unity candidate' will be Rudd is laughable though.
  • And on another subject does any agree with me that Davos is an affront to decency and demonstrates all that is wrong with big business and obscene wealth

    Davos is a ruthless tyrant with millions of daleks to enforce his slightest whim. There is nothing democratic about him.
    He used to really scare me, mainly because he looked like my grandmother
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mrs C, indeed, he had a rather good little speech against democracy in Genesis of the Daleks.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    MJW said:

    I think the reason that Gove is a reasonable bet is that there's several plausible scenarios in which he becomes leader.

    1.) Brexit caretaker - May's deal is voted through on the promise that she goes and is replaced by a Brexiteer for the next stage of negotiations. Gove is pretty much the only leading Brexiteer who wouldn't send the remain wing into open revolt - so emerges as a compromise until Brexit is done at least.

    2.) Brexiteer spoiler - there's an open contest and the remain wing calculate that while they could get a Rudd, or even a Javid onto the members ballot against a Johnson, Raab or Mordaunt, they'd be trounced. So swing behind Gove as a spoiler who can beat them - and isn't prone to indulging in lunacy.

    3.) Readiness in opposition. There's an election reasonably soon. Labour forms a minority government - Gove is elected as a safe pair of hands for when it all goes tits up.

    4.) Wins a straight contest. He may not be liked much in the country, but is within the Tory Party - and no candidate who can plausibly win the membership can claim to be likely to win back Labour leaning remain voters - so his big negative doesn't really matter compared to his opponents. Would also probably get the Mail's backing.

    +1.

    If we can’t have him as PN can we please have him as Chancellor - we desperately need someone in that position who can think outside the box and would be committed to reducing the growing complexity in the tax code.
  • BudG said:

    FPT

    BudG said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:


    And there’s not a cat in Hell’s chance the EU will agree to it, which rather puts a spanner in the works.

    Hmm, I think there is a good chance they might. Or they'll say they will we'll need to have a General Election.. so we could get one of those.
    What would be the downside for the EU in agreeing that we could have another few weeks until the EU elections, even if it was just to give Parliament another few weeks to try to come to some agreement?
    This does seem to be looking at it only from the UK point of view. Bear in mind that the EU has many very serious problems with other countries at the moment and the EU elections are going to be tough enough for the EU anyway without Brexit still hanging over them unresolved.

    They made very clear that an extension would be dependent on a resolution being in sight. Asking for more time just to carry on arguing does not make it likely they will be forthcoming.
  • And on another subject does any agree with me that Davos is an affront to decency and demonstrates all that is wrong with big business and obscene wealth

    Davos is a ruthless tyrant with millions of daleks to enforce his slightest whim. There is nothing democratic about him.
    Yes but he can be defeated with a sonic screwdriver and a bag of Jelly Babies so he is not so tough.
  • Sandpit said:

    MJW said:

    I think the reason that Gove is a reasonable bet is that there's several plausible scenarios in which he becomes leader.

    1.) Brexit caretaker - May's deal is voted through on the promise that she goes and is replaced by a Brexiteer for the next stage of negotiations. Gove is pretty much the only leading Brexiteer who wouldn't send the remain wing into open revolt - so emerges as a compromise until Brexit is done at least.

    2.) Brexiteer spoiler - there's an open contest and the remain wing calculate that while they could get a Rudd, or even a Javid onto the members ballot against a Johnson, Raab or Mordaunt, they'd be trounced. So swing behind Gove as a spoiler who can beat them - and isn't prone to indulging in lunacy.

    3.) Readiness in opposition. There's an election reasonably soon. Labour forms a minority government - Gove is elected as a safe pair of hands for when it all goes tits up.

    4.) Wins a straight contest. He may not be liked much in the country, but is within the Tory Party - and no candidate who can plausibly win the membership can claim to be likely to win back Labour leaning remain voters - so his big negative doesn't really matter compared to his opponents. Would also probably get the Mail's backing.

    +1.

    If we can’t have him as PN can we please have him as Chancellor - we desperately need someone in that position who can think outside the box and would be committed to reducing the growing complexity in the tax code.
    Ah, the old chestnut of 'complexity in the tax code'

    Flat rate tax and flat earth society go hand in hand!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    Sandpit said:

    MJW said:

    I think the reason that Gove is a reasonable bet is that there's several plausible scenarios in which he becomes leader.

    1.) Brexit caretaker - May's deal is voted through on the promise that she goes and is replaced by a Brexiteer for the next stage of negotiations. Gove is pretty much the only leading Brexiteer who wouldn't send the remain wing into open revolt - so emerges as a compromise until Brexit is done at least.

    2.) Brexiteer spoiler - there's an open contest and the remain wing calculate that while they could get a Rudd, or even a Javid onto the members ballot against a Johnson, Raab or Mordaunt, they'd be trounced. So swing behind Gove as a spoiler who can beat them - and isn't prone to indulging in lunacy.

    3.) Readiness in opposition. There's an election reasonably soon. Labour forms a minority government - Gove is elected as a safe pair of hands for when it all goes tits up.

    4.) Wins a straight contest. He may not be liked much in the country, but is within the Tory Party - and no candidate who can plausibly win the membership can claim to be likely to win back Labour leaning remain voters - so his big negative doesn't really matter compared to his opponents. Would also probably get the Mail's backing.

    +1.

    If we can’t have him as PN can we please have him as Chancellor - we desperately need someone in that position who can think outside the box and would be committed to reducing the growing complexity in the tax code.
    Ah, the old chestnut of 'complexity in the tax code'

    Flat rate tax and flat earth society go hand in hand!
    Complexity in the tax code assists tax avoiders.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    edited January 2019
    Interesting thread on Osborne's view of holding the Referendum. Some interesting comments below.

    https://twitter.com/rbrharrison/status/1088011340399169536
  • Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    How the hell is Amber Rudd in the mix ?

    She should be 50-1 plus here, how on earth is she going to win a poll of the members.

    There might not be a poll of the members. Depending when and how May goes, there might be pressure on the second candidate to withdraw in order to avoid a contest, as happened with Leadsom last time.
    The idea that the 'unity candidate' will be Rudd is laughable though.

    May is he unity candidate.
  • But there is no majority at all for any plan except Remain so there is no way they will agree if they stick to those terms.
  • Pulpstar said:

    How the hell is Amber Rudd in the mix ?

    She should be 50-1 plus here, how on earth is she going to win a poll of the members.

    Agree on that. The best way to look at this is (a) to work backwards and (b) eliminate who is likely to be unacceptable.

    Whoever is the grassroots think is the most trusted on Brexit will win, simple as. On the "ah yes but MPs choose the two candidates to go through" (a) as a thread from a few weeks back stated, the bloc of the vote against May suggests Brexiteers can get their favoured candidate into the second round and (b) enough of the MPs are primarily motivated by concern over their jobs where they wouldn't risk putting two remainer / untrusted candidates to the membership.

    If I was looking at this list above, I say Gove is too distrusted, Johnson is too hated by the other side (and the ERG probably realise that is the case to back him) and Raab is going the same way, Hunt / Javid are seen as flipfloppers and unreliable, Rudd is a joke and Davis is too old. Mourdant is out because she is seen as having "betrayed" Brexit by staying in the Cabinet.

    Look for anyone else who is quite hardline Brexit
    Leadsom.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,075
    edited January 2019

    Michael Gove would be my choice of leader and if not Chancellor. His tour de force traducing Corbyn last week at the dispatch box last week was a masterclass and the labour mps knew it as you watched their horrified expressions

    And on another subject does any agree with me that Davos is an affront to decency and demonstrates all that is wrong with big business and obscene wealth

    Adam Boulton on Sky this morning said it costs a CEO $250,000 to attend

    You watch too much telly.

    I saw Gove’s speech. It was garbage. Although it was a well overdue catalogue of Corbyn’s essential awfulness, there was not an original or interesting thought in there.

    I agree though that Gove has earned the right to be CoE.
    just a query, what has watching telly got to do with my comment on Gove. If I didn't I would not have seen it.

    And the immediate 100% roar of support from the backbenches was the first time they have united all together for a long time
    Someone up thread called it a student union speech, which is right. It’s easy to get an applause when you’re hammering the crapness of Corbyn.

    Anyway, my point is:
    - one speech is not enough to make a PM.
    - the speech wasn’t actually all that good.
    I didn't think much of Gove's speech, a stream of invective against Jezza rather than a single reason to have confidence in the May government. Watson's speech was much more impressive. Its significance was the recognition that Gove is defacto Deputy PM, so chosen to reply.

    Of course as I often point out, endorsement by an outgoing discredited leader is not nessecarily an advantage in a contest, something to be considered for all parties.
  • Michael Gove would be my choice of leader and if not Chancellor. His tour de force traducing Corbyn last week at the dispatch box last week was a masterclass and the labour mps knew it as you watched their horrified expressions

    And on another subject does any agree with me that Davos is an affront to decency and demonstrates all that is wrong with big business and obscene wealth

    Adam Boulton on Sky this morning said it costs a CEO $250,000 to attend

    Not if you get invited to speak.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    BudG said:

    FPT

    BudG said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:


    And there’s not a cat in Hell’s chance the EU will agree to it, which rather puts a spanner in the works.

    Hmm, I think there is a good chance they might. Or they'll say they will we'll need to have a General Election.. so we could get one of those.
    What would be the downside for the EU in agreeing that we could have another few weeks until the EU elections, even if it was just to give Parliament another few weeks to try to come to some agreement?
    This does seem to be looking at it only from the UK point of view. Bear in mind that the EU has many very serious problems with other countries at the moment and the EU elections are going to be tough enough for the EU anyway without Brexit still hanging over them unresolved.

    They made very clear that an extension would be dependent on a resolution being in sight. Asking for more time just to carry on arguing does not make it likely they will be forthcoming.
    An extra month to get the current plan through with a bit of fudge shouldn't be a problem.

    Both sides move on the backstop - ERG and DUP placated - it's the only likely way forward.

    2nd Referendums and citizens workshops are for the birds.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,881
    In the end, it will surely be Boris. The next leader of the Blue Ba'ath is going to have to be a) a leaver and b) a shameless populist liar who can fight Corbyn's shameless populist lies on an equal footing.

    Gove is too weird and sneaky for the "save the furniture" strategy they are going to need in the next election.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,774
    People tell me that Davos is a soulless dump, anyway. There are much nicer places you could go to for a freebie, like Oxford, or Dubrovnik, or Prague.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Dura_Ace said:

    In the end, it will surely be Boris. The next leader of the Blue Ba'ath is going to have to be a) a leaver and b) a shameless populist liar who can fight Corbyn's shameless populist lies on an equal footing.

    Gove is too weird and sneaky for the "save the furniture" strategy they are going to need in the next election.

    Did you miss every speech by Boris for the last 12-24 months ? Clueless. He's yesterday's man. The blonde Portillo.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    Cooper's extension is just stupidity. We are going to kick the can down the road. So we are able to do this unilaterally? Er....no. And if the EU say no? Er.....

    Even if it succeeds - an extension for Westminster to frig about a few more months? We still eventually arrive at a "piss or get off the pot" moment. Meanwhile, it just adds extra months where industry can't plan. From those arguing that the uncertainty of Brexit is costing jobs.

    Idiots.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    edited January 2019

    And on another subject does any agree with me that Davos is an affront to decency and demonstrates all that is wrong with big business and obscene wealth

    Davos is a ruthless tyrant with millions of daleks to enforce his slightest whim. There is nothing democratic about him.
    He used to really scare me, mainly because he looked like my grandmother
    Who? Michael Gove?

    But there is no majority at all for any plan except Remain so there is no way they will agree if they stick to those terms.
    There is no majority for Remain.

    There may (but not at they moment) be a majority for a referendum, although that is not Remain, indeed it could be rephrased as agreeing to May’s Deal to Brexit, subject to the electorate’s approval.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043

    Cooper's extension is just stupidity. We are going to kick the can down the road. So we are able to do this unilaterally? Er....no. And if the EU say no? Er.....

    Even if it succeeds - an extension for Westminster to frig about a few more months? We still eventually arrive at a "piss or get off the pot" moment. Meanwhile, it just adds extra months where industry can't plan. From those arguing that the uncertainty of Brexit is costing jobs.

    Idiots.
    but I'll be able to get my wife's meds for another nine months.

    From where I'm sitting, I'll take that thanks.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,881
    TGOHF said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    In the end, it will surely be Boris. The next leader of the Blue Ba'ath is going to have to be a) a leaver and b) a shameless populist liar who can fight Corbyn's shameless populist lies on an equal footing.

    Gove is too weird and sneaky for the "save the furniture" strategy they are going to need in the next election.

    Did you miss every speech by Boris for the last 12-24 months ? Clueless. He's yesterday's man. The blonde Portillo.

    HYUFD is still swinging off Boris' nut sack based on ConHome polls I think. It's not over until they forsake Boris.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Sandpit said:

    MJW said:

    I think the reason that Gove is a reasonable bet is that there's several plausible scenarios in which he becomes leader.

    1.) Brexit caretaker - May's deal is voted through on the promise that she goes and is replaced by a Brexiteer for the next stage of negotiations. Gove is pretty much the only leading Brexiteer who wouldn't send the remain wing into open revolt - so emerges as a compromise until Brexit is done at least.

    2.) Brexiteer spoiler - there's an open contest and the remain wing calculate that while they could get a Rudd, or even a Javid onto the members ballot against a Johnson, Raab or Mordaunt, they'd be trounced. So swing behind Gove as a spoiler who can beat them - and isn't prone to indulging in lunacy.

    3.) Readiness in opposition. There's an election reasonably soon. Labour forms a minority government - Gove is elected as a safe pair of hands for when it all goes tits up.

    4.) Wins a straight contest. He may not be liked much in the country, but is within the Tory Party - and no candidate who can plausibly win the membership can claim to be likely to win back Labour leaning remain voters - so his big negative doesn't really matter compared to his opponents. Would also probably get the Mail's backing.

    +1.

    If we can’t have him as PN can we please have him as Chancellor - we desperately need someone in that position who can think outside the box and would be committed to reducing the growing complexity in the tax code.
    Ah, the old chestnut of 'complexity in the tax code'

    Flat rate tax and flat earth society go hand in hand!
    UK has the worlds longest tax code. It’s in desperate need of simplifying, unless you’re an accountant or tax lawyer.
  • Sandpit said:

    MJW said:

    I think the reason that Gove is a reasonable bet is that there's several plausible scenarios in which he becomes leader.

    1.) Brexit caretaker - May's deal is voted through on the promise that she goes and is replaced by a Brexiteer for the next stage of negotiations. Gove is pretty much the only leading Brexiteer who wouldn't send the remain wing into open revolt - so emerges as a compromise until Brexit is done at least.

    2.) Brexiteer spoiler - there's an open contest and the remain wing calculate that while they could get a Rudd, or even a Javid onto the members ballot against a Johnson, Raab or Mordaunt, they'd be trounced. So swing behind Gove as a spoiler who can beat them - and isn't prone to indulging in lunacy.

    3.) Readiness in opposition. There's an election reasonably soon. Labour forms a minority government - Gove is elected as a safe pair of hands for when it all goes tits up.

    4.) Wins a straight contest. He may not be liked much in the country, but is within the Tory Party - and no candidate who can plausibly win the membership can claim to be likely to win back Labour leaning remain voters - so his big negative doesn't really matter compared to his opponents. Would also probably get the Mail's backing.

    +1.

    If we can’t have him as PN can we please have him as Chancellor - we desperately need someone in that position who can think outside the box and would be committed to reducing the growing complexity in the tax code.
    Ah, the old chestnut of 'complexity in the tax code'

    Flat rate tax and flat earth society go hand in hand!
    Complexity in the tax code assists tax avoiders.
    Basically all the complexity introduced into the tax code in the last decade has been anti-avoidance.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    I did not rate Gove's commons speech but I do expect him to be the next Con leader.

    Sometimes, when assessing a race, whether the participants have 8 legs or 4 legs or only 2, you realize that one of the runners stands out to such an extent that you can dispense with the gaming out of exotic scenarios in which they do not win. This is the case for me with Gove and next Con leader. The trees might be whispering conflicting things but the message from the the forest is loud and clear: "Gonna be Gove!" it booms, or just occasionally, more sotto voce, "It has to be Michael."

    I like it when this happens because it imbues one with a sense of confidence and authority when discussing the matter. The last time it happened as strongly as this was GE2017 when for all the talk of Labour surges and the Corbyn love in amongst younger voters, I knew - I just knew - that the actual result once all of the actual votes had been counted was going to be a solid overall majority for the Tories of between 60 and 80 seats.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    How the hell is Amber Rudd in the mix ?

    She should be 50-1 plus here, how on earth is she going to win a poll of the members.

    There might not be a poll of the members. Depending when and how May goes, there might be pressure on the second candidate to withdraw in order to avoid a contest, as happened with Leadsom last time.
    The idea that the 'unity candidate' will be Rudd is laughable though.
    She might be the unity candidate once 80% of the activists and members have given up on the party. Well, until she loses her seat at the next General.
  • Sandpit said:

    MJW said:

    I think the reason that Gove is a reasonable bet is that there's several plausible scenarios in which he becomes leader.

    1.) Brexit caretaker - May's deal is voted through on the promise that she goes and is replaced by a Brexiteer for the next stage of negotiations. Gove is pretty much the only leading Brexiteer who wouldn't send the remain wing into open revolt - so emerges as a compromise until Brexit is done at least.

    2.) Brexiteer spoiler - there's an open contest and the remain wing calculate that while they could get a Rudd, or even a Javid onto the members ballot against a Johnson, Raab or Mordaunt, they'd be trounced. So swing behind Gove as a spoiler who can beat them - and isn't prone to indulging in lunacy.

    3.) Readiness in opposition. There's an election reasonably soon. Labour forms a minority government - Gove is elected as a safe pair of hands for when it all goes tits up.

    4.) Wins a straight contest. He may not be liked much in the country, but is within the Tory Party - and no candidate who can plausibly win the membership can claim to be likely to win back Labour leaning remain voters - so his big negative doesn't really matter compared to his opponents. Would also probably get the Mail's backing.

    +1.

    If we can’t have him as PN can we please have him as Chancellor - we desperately need someone in that position who can think outside the box and would be committed to reducing the growing complexity in the tax code.
    Ah, the old chestnut of 'complexity in the tax code'

    Flat rate tax and flat earth society go hand in hand!
    5 EU countries already have a flat tax. Two of them - Estonia and Lithuania - also have some of the most progressive benefits policies in the world. Estonia also scores well above average in OECD rankings for education. If the aim is to prevent avoidance and to raise more money for services then flat rate taxes work.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    On Boris, hmm.............

    I don't... think it'll be Boris. But it might be. More certain than that on Rudd.
  • Guto Bebb writing in our local paper today hits out at the abuse his staff has received since he voted against the government last week. The abuse is wrong, but why he thinks conservatives should not be angry with his stop brexit stance shows he has little respect for them

    He is a very poor conservative mp and I have already requested his de-selection, though I doubt he will hold the seat in an election anytime soon
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Sean_F said:

    People tell me that Davos is a soulless dump, anyway. There are much nicer places you could go to for a freebie, like Oxford, or Dubrovnik, or Prague.

    Dubrovnik is very pretty but chock-a-block with third agers off the cruise liners blocking the narrow streets shouting in cut-glass accents: "Darling. Darling? Could you just step back a bit so I can get you in the photo completely?"
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,774

    Sean_F said:

    People tell me that Davos is a soulless dump, anyway. There are much nicer places you could go to for a freebie, like Oxford, or Dubrovnik, or Prague.

    Dubrovnik is very pretty but chock-a-block with third agers off the cruise liners blocking the narrow streets shouting in cut-glass accents: "Darling. Darling? Could you just step back a bit so I can get you in the photo completely?"
    I didn't notice them. What I did notice was the profusion of cats everywhere.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    kinabalu said:

    I did not rate Gove's commons speech but I do expect him to be the next Con leader.

    Sometimes, when assessing a race, whether the participants have 8 legs or 4 legs or only 2, you realize that one of the runners stands out to such an extent that you can dispense with the gaming out of exotic scenarios in which they do not win. This is the case for me with Gove and next Con leader. The trees might be whispering conflicting things but the message from the the forest is loud and clear: "Gonna be Gove!" it booms, or just occasionally, more sotto voce, "It has to be Michael."

    I like it when this happens because it imbues one with a sense of confidence and authority when discussing the matter. The last time it happened as strongly as this was GE2017 when for all the talk of Labour surges and the Corbyn love in amongst younger voters, I knew - I just knew - that the actual result once all of the actual votes had been counted was going to be a solid overall majority for the Tories of between 60 and 80 seats.

    When the members do finally get a choice, they will probably be thinking "oh crap...." In that case, the one who they would least like to punch in the face will get their vote.

    Under most every scenario, that rules out Gove.
  • And on another subject does any agree with me that Davos is an affront to decency and demonstrates all that is wrong with big business and obscene wealth

    Davos is a ruthless tyrant with millions of daleks to enforce his slightest whim. There is nothing democratic about him.
    He used to really scare me, mainly because he looked like my grandmother
    Who? Michael Gove?

    But there is no majority at all for any plan except Remain so there is no way they will agree if they stick to those terms.
    There is no majority for Remain.

    There may (but not at they moment) be a majority for a referendum, although that is not Remain, indeed it could be rephrased as agreeing to May’s Deal to Brexit, subject to the electorate’s approval.
    I disagree. They may not be making it open as they fear losing the support of their electorate but there is clearly a majority for Remain in Parliament. That is exactly what this is all about. MPs trying to find a way to scupper Brexit without getting the blame.
  • Cooper's extension is just stupidity. We are going to kick the can down the road. So we are able to do this unilaterally? Er....no. And if the EU say no? Er.....

    Even if it succeeds - an extension for Westminster to frig about a few more months? We still eventually arrive at a "piss or get off the pot" moment. Meanwhile, it just adds extra months where industry can't plan. From those arguing that the uncertainty of Brexit is costing jobs.

    Idiots.
    but I'll be able to get my wife's meds for another nine months.

    From where I'm sitting, I'll take that thanks.
    Industry cant plan as the Government has no plan. For the moment most business has a wait and see policy.

    Was listening to the Irish minister on LBC Ian Dale last night who made a very good point. If the UK is on WTO and opens its borders to Eire it needs legally to do the same with the rest of the world. This would destroy UK industry as there is no need for reciprocal action by the rest of the world. This is so far the only scenario I can see that would kill my company. I will take another year of argument to avoid this.


  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    People tell me that Davos is a soulless dump, anyway. There are much nicer places you could go to for a freebie, like Oxford, or Dubrovnik, or Prague.

    Dubrovnik is very pretty but chock-a-block with third agers off the cruise liners blocking the narrow streets shouting in cut-glass accents: "Darling. Darling? Could you just step back a bit so I can get you in the photo completely?"
    I didn't notice them. What I did notice was the profusion of cats everywhere.
    I didn’t see any cats.

    I saw ageing gammon hauling themselves up and down stairs and Game of Thrones loons dresses inappropriately for the climate.

    Superb for a moonlight dip though if you can grab a villa by the seafront.
  • The end of Davros

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CFyXqxZzLFk

    But also a prediction that the human race will be destroyed by Maybots, sorry I mean robots.
  • Sean_F said:

    People tell me that Davos is a soulless dump, anyway. There are much nicer places you could go to for a freebie, like Oxford, or Dubrovnik, or Prague.

    Dubrovnik is very pretty but chock-a-block with third agers off the cruise liners blocking the narrow streets shouting in cut-glass accents: "Darling. Darling? Could you just step back a bit so I can get you in the photo completely?"
    Come on now. We were there last year on Royal Princess and did a tour with the founder of Domino's chain. I never heard one darling to be fair
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    Scott_P said:
    Sounds ultra sensible, this.
    May should have set this up in autumn 2016.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,774

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    People tell me that Davos is a soulless dump, anyway. There are much nicer places you could go to for a freebie, like Oxford, or Dubrovnik, or Prague.

    Dubrovnik is very pretty but chock-a-block with third agers off the cruise liners blocking the narrow streets shouting in cut-glass accents: "Darling. Darling? Could you just step back a bit so I can get you in the photo completely?"
    I didn't notice them. What I did notice was the profusion of cats everywhere.
    I didn’t see any cats.

    I saw ageing gammon hauling themselves up and down stairs and Game of Thrones loons dresses inappropriately for the climate.

    Superb for a moonlight dip though if you can grab a villa by the seafront.
    It's famous for the cats, which live up on the walls.

    https://perceptivetravel.com/blog/2017/12/11/cats-of-dubrovnik/
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    And on another subject does any agree with me that Davos is an affront to decency and demonstrates all that is wrong with big business and obscene wealth

    Davos is a ruthless tyrant with millions of daleks to enforce his slightest whim. There is nothing democratic about him.
    Yes but he can be defeated with a sonic screwdriver and a bag of Jelly Babies so he is not so tough.
    Do you think the same tools could work on Mrs May? #newWayToStopBrexit
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401

    FPT:
    "Democracy" keeps being mentioned by posters such as Mr. Tyndall. The slight problem is that trying to nail the democracy jelly to the wall is somewhat problematic. There are many different interpretations of what it means. Communists have a very different interpretation from those in liberal western "democracies".

    Our own democracy is highly flawed. We have an hereditary Head of State. We have an unelected upper chamber in parliament. However, it largely works, mainly because it is founded on the basis of law, with a distinct separation of powers between the judiciary (remember those traitors of The People!) and the legislature. The executive is unfortunately too heavily entwined with the legislature in my opinion, but that is another matter.

    So what of Brexit? Is what is happening democratic or undemocratic? My own reading, which I accept is not entirely impartial is that parliament is doing its job to some extent. We have a representative democracy based on delegated responsibility to MPs. The electorate chose Brexit by a small margin. It then decided, in its collective wisdom to give us a hung parliament, rather than overwhelming power to Mrs May, who, at the time of the election at least, very much gave the impression of being a convert to Brexit as a concept. So there we have it, the people decided, but they them decided to make it difficult. As Churchill might have said "The people have spoken, the bastards... but they don't seem to know what they want"

    "The people have mumbled".
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    And on another subject does any agree with me that Davos is an affront to decency and demonstrates all that is wrong with big business and obscene wealth

    Davos is a ruthless tyrant with millions of daleks to enforce his slightest whim. There is nothing democratic about him.
    He used to really scare me, mainly because he looked like my grandmother
    Oops! Hopefully you did not inherit her looks ;)
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Scott_P said:
    Sounds ultra sensible, this.
    May should have set this up in autumn 2016.
    It has no chance of success in that case. :D
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    A year of Democrats tearing lumps out of each other, rather than Trump, will presumably do the latter a great deal of good in the polling.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851

    When the members do finally get a choice, they will probably be thinking "oh crap...." In that case, the one who they would least like to punch in the face will get their vote.

    Under most every scenario, that rules out Gove.

    Well David Cameron had a very punchable face - that sleek and well fed 'born to rule' visage was just made for it - but he romped home with the members due to his quality as a candidate.

    He was up against a formidable opponent too. OK, David Davis has become something of a comical figure now but back then, in the prime of life and fizzing with energy and ideas, he was quite something.

    So Gove versus, say, Hancock? Or even against Gauke?

    Nolo contendere IMHO.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043

    A year of Democrats tearing lumps out of each other, rather than Trump, will presumably do the latter a great deal of good in the polling.
    Unfortunately, you may be right. Unless it quickly becomes clear who the frontrunner is.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    Sean_F said:

    People tell me that Davos is a soulless dump, anyway. There are much nicer places you could go to for a freebie, like Oxford, or Dubrovnik, or Prague.

    Dubrovnik is very pretty but chock-a-block with third agers off the cruise liners blocking the narrow streets shouting in cut-glass accents: "Darling. Darling? Could you just step back a bit so I can get you in the photo completely?"
    just think

    in ten years or so that will be you and the young folk will be laughing at you as an aged sad sack with antiquarian views
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    kinabalu said:

    When the members do finally get a choice, they will probably be thinking "oh crap...." In that case, the one who they would least like to punch in the face will get their vote.

    Under most every scenario, that rules out Gove.

    Well David Cameron had a very punchable face - that sleek and well fed 'born to rule' visage was just made for it - but he romped home with the members due to his quality as a candidate.

    He was up against a formidable opponent too. OK, David Davis has become something of a comical figure now but back then, in the prime of life and fizzing with energy and ideas, he was quite something.

    So Gove versus, say, Hancock? Or even against Gauke?

    Nolo contendere IMHO.
    I'm not a member, but from outside it looks to me as if Tory members have hardened considerably over Brexit since Cameron's election and now want an out and out Leaver ultra at any price.

    Happy to be corrected.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881
    One advantage of Gove is he opposed the Good Friday Agreement at the time, so he is well placed to make the case for screwing Northern Ireland for its own good.
  • kinabalu said:

    When the members do finally get a choice, they will probably be thinking "oh crap...." In that case, the one who they would least like to punch in the face will get their vote.

    Under most every scenario, that rules out Gove.

    Well David Cameron had a very punchable face - that sleek and well fed 'born to rule' visage was just made for it - but he romped home with the members due to his quality as a candidate.

    He was up against a formidable opponent too. OK, David Davis has become something of a comical figure now but back then, in the prime of life and fizzing with energy and ideas, he was quite something.

    So Gove versus, say, Hancock? Or even against Gauke?

    Nolo contendere IMHO.
    I'm not a member, but from outside it looks to me as if Tory members have hardened considerably over Brexit since Cameron's election and now want an out and out Leaver ultra at any price.

    Happy to be corrected.
    Not me
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    score draw so far
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    MJW said:

    I think the reason that Gove is a reasonable bet is that there's several plausible scenarios in which he becomes leader.

    1.) Brexit caretaker - May's deal is voted through on the promise that she goes and is replaced by a Brexiteer for the next stage of negotiations. Gove is pretty much the only leading Brexiteer who wouldn't send the remain wing into open revolt - so emerges as a compromise until Brexit is done at least.

    2.) Brexiteer spoiler - there's an open contest and the remain wing calculate that while they could get a Rudd, or even a Javid onto the members ballot against a Johnson, Raab or Mordaunt, they'd be trounced. So swing behind Gove as a spoiler who can beat them - and isn't prone to indulging in lunacy.

    3.) Readiness in opposition. There's an election reasonably soon. Labour forms a minority government - Gove is elected as a safe pair of hands for when it all goes tits up.

    4.) Wins a straight contest. He may not be liked much in the country, but is within the Tory Party - and no candidate who can plausibly win the membership can claim to be likely to win back Labour leaning remain voters - so his big negative doesn't really matter compared to his opponents. Would also probably get the Mail's backing.

    +1.

    If we can’t have him as PN can we please have him as Chancellor - we desperately need someone in that position who can think outside the box and would be committed to reducing the growing complexity in the tax code.
    Ah, the old chestnut of 'complexity in the tax code'

    Flat rate tax and flat earth society go hand in hand!
    UK has the worlds longest tax code. It’s in desperate need of simplifying, unless you’re an accountant or tax lawyer.
    My pet theory on this is that the way to simplify it is to start with opt-in "tax plans".

    A bit like your mobile phone plan. You sign up for a tariff: say, the "sole-trader limited company plan". That is your complete set of tax rules. No exceptions. You lose a little in flexibility and therefore end up paying a bit more, but the saving in simplicity and paying an accountant is worth it.

    Eventually, when enough people have opted in, you can start to chip away at the tax code.

    But it's just a pet theory and my exposure to tax is limited to screaming at HMRC every time I have to do any sort of tax return, so meh.
  • This PMQ's demonstrates TM's knowledge of the subject and Corbyn's lack of understanding of various technical issues.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    TOPPING said:

    score draw so far

    It's all a meaningless piece of theatre
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074

    Sean_F said:

    People tell me that Davos is a soulless dump, anyway. There are much nicer places you could go to for a freebie, like Oxford, or Dubrovnik, or Prague.

    Dubrovnik is very pretty but chock-a-block with third agers off the cruise liners blocking the narrow streets shouting in cut-glass accents: "Darling. Darling? Could you just step back a bit so I can get you in the photo completely?"
    I went there before the war, when it was still Yugoslavia. Got on a boat which sailed down from Rijeka. Slept on deck, watched the sun rise and when we landed we’d go into town to buy whatever food was available in the market. Seeing these towns from the sea was glorious. There were no tourists. I was the only foreigner and communicating was difficult - a lot of pointing and hand gestures to indicate the size of the loaf I wanted. The only people I found who wanted to speak English were some youths who wanted my views on football. So a lot of bluffing followed. Strangely (or perhaps not) in Slovenia, where I started out, they were very reluctant to speak any Italian.

    It broke my heart to see Dubrovnik and other places being shelled and bombed a few years later.
  • My pet theory on this is that the way to simplify it is to start with opt-in "tax plans".

    A bit like your mobile phone plan. You sign up for a tariff: say, the "sole-trader limited company plan". That is your complete set of tax rules. No exceptions. You lose a little in flexibility and therefore end up paying a bit more, but the saving in simplicity and paying an accountant is worth it.

    Eventually, when enough people have opted in, you can start to chip away at the tax code.

    But it's just a pet theory and my exposure to tax is limited to screaming at HMRC every time I have to do any sort of tax return, so meh.

    Something like your idea already exists for VAT - the 'flat rate' scheme:

    https://www.rawlinsons.co.uk/resource/vat-flat-rate-scheme/
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    Anyway, I see that Santander is closing 140 branches. I suspect this is why it had that bust up last week with the CEO, Orcel, it was hiring - and then not.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46972632
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    My pet theory on this is that the way to simplify it is to start with opt-in "tax plans".

    A bit like your mobile phone plan. You sign up for a tariff: say, the "sole-trader limited company plan". That is your complete set of tax rules. No exceptions. You lose a little in flexibility and therefore end up paying a bit more, but the saving in simplicity and paying an accountant is worth it.

    Eventually, when enough people have opted in, you can start to chip away at the tax code.

    But it's just a pet theory and my exposure to tax is limited to screaming at HMRC every time I have to do any sort of tax return, so meh.

    Something like your idea already exists for VAT - the 'flat rate' scheme:

    https://www.rawlinsons.co.uk/resource/vat-flat-rate-scheme/
    And while granted I'm a very small company, computerisation made returning to the standatd VAT scheme instead of the flat rate scheme was utterly painless...
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