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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ten minisisters ready to tell TMay that they’ll resign unless

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited January 27 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ten minisisters ready to tell TMay that they’ll resign unless there’s a deal within a fortnight

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  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 1,313
    First!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 43,063
    Ten minisisters?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 43,063
    Scott_P said:
    See, this is what I'm talking about - we've got completely contradictory reports of May being able to revive the deal if she does X, or soft brexiters abandoning the deal if she does X, of the Labour leadership backing Cooper or not backing Cooper, threats of resignations unless there are free votes.

    Someone, perhaps all of them, are peddling a lot of horsecrap at the moment, since they cannot all be close to achieving their aims.<

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Yes, I'm sure either the ERG/Labour or the EU are just about to cave completely in order to enable May to get the deal through, so she can surely promise such a thing no problem.

    Securing a deal is not, sadly, within her power. And why 2 weeks grace period?

    But isn't the Cooper plan expected to pass anyway, making this all pretty moot? It kills of any hope of people agreeing the deal.

    Nothing will pass.

    We’re heading to No Deal. That’s been clear since December.

    Most likely. Remain still has a shot, if they can get the first step of extensions.

    Edit: The May plan A2.0 was one of the final signs I think that the government expects no deal, as it is doing something it itself said would not be possible, and has said that for months, so in essence is asking for unicorns and then intending to just go hard on the blame the EU talk.

    What I want to know is what happens once it’s blamed the EU? How does that mitigate the effects of a No Deal?

    I don't think the plan hasn't gotten any further than that, and hoping it is not as bad as their own predictions say it will be. Other than the blind hope that the various EU nations will also blame the EU, but that seems a very unlikely circumstance - people are people, and they will blame the other party, and naturally resent making further concessions, even if it would secure a good outcome (and even that is not assured should the EU grant this concession)

    Rentoul thinks the Cooper-Boles amendment will pass, 321-317.

    Depends on how many genuinely believe no deal Brexit must be avoided at all costs also are fooled/believe the false words of Cooper that it is not about stopping Brexit.

    it's be better that than we no deal because people are still chasing unicorns.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 2,369
    What does "commit to securing" the deal mean, I wonder.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 21,324
    They aint sing 'Oh Jeremy Corbyn' anymore down at the student cafe:

  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 1,313
    edited January 27
    Talking about First, I wonder if resignations materialise, who will be first and how many will actually quit and return to the backbenches. We have seen that Ministers on the other side of the split hold onto office like Fox. I do wonder about the quantity of backbone in seeing their preferred strategy through to the end Vs. continuing to hold office.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 43,063
    This is yet another really stupid story. I get it is about these ministers not quitting to support Cooper's remain plan, but why 2 weeks? What concession will the EU make to get on board those needed to approve the plan, or vice versa, in just 2 weeks? That's not in May's power.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 43,063
    Chris said:

    What does "commit to securing" the deal mean, I wonder.

    Promise that it will be voted on and approved in 2 weeks, it would seem. Something not in her ability to promise.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 43,063

    They aint sing 'Oh Jeremy Corbyn' anymore down at the student cafe:

    Perhaps not. Will they still vote for him though? From what I can see of the story it talks of a surge for a FinalSay, not another party. That's easily fixable for Corbyn either by switching to that, however late in the day, or if the deal gets through without Corbyn's backing somehow.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 29,203
    kle4 said:

    This is yet another really stupid story. I get it is about these ministers not quitting to support Cooper's remain plan, but why 2 weeks? What concession will the EU make to get on board those needed to approve the plan, or vice versa, in just 2 weeks? That's not in May's power.

    Aren’t they giving her two weeks to show she can get concessions?

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 24,661
    She's now got a fortnight to sack them.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 1,313
    edited January 27
    kle4 said:

    Chris said:

    What does "commit to securing" the deal mean, I wonder.

    Promise that it will be voted on and approved in 2 weeks, it would seem. Something not in her ability to promise.
    I think 2 weeks ties in with the feasibility of getting all the legislation through Parliament in time to ensure Brexit happens if there is a deal. Apparently not all the legislation has been scrutinised and some media pundits claim Brexit will have to be delayed because the groundwork in terms of legalistic changes have not been made.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 24,519
    Sounds like a backing off rather than a ratcheting up.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 21,324
    edited January 27
    Another average evening in the Jezza Cult. Putting out a load of fake news bollx and argument about how many died in the holocaust.

    On Holocaust Day.



  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 51,228
    If the Cooper amendment passes, the EU should block a meaningless extension to A50. Force out one of the 5 proper options of revocation, another referendum, passing May's deal, no deal, GE. OK So not all of those are endstates but it moves things forward.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 14,323
    edited January 27
    O/t, but if anyone hasn't watched The Last Survivors on BBC2 about remaining survivors of the Holocaust, they should make the effort. I'm not always the greatest fan of the BBC's approach to commemorative tv but they stuck to the cardinal rule, let the people speak (plus no pishy backing music).

    Worth watching for Anita Lasker-Wallfisch alone, God she's a tough old bird.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 43,063

    kle4 said:

    This is yet another really stupid story. I get it is about these ministers not quitting to support Cooper's remain plan, but why 2 weeks? What concession will the EU make to get on board those needed to approve the plan, or vice versa, in just 2 weeks? That's not in May's power.

    Aren’t they giving her two weeks to show she can get concessions?

    Yes, but why the two week timeframe for that? Why not 1, or 3?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 29,203
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    This is yet another really stupid story. I get it is about these ministers not quitting to support Cooper's remain plan, but why 2 weeks? What concession will the EU make to get on board those needed to approve the plan, or vice versa, in just 2 weeks? That's not in May's power.

    Aren’t they giving her two weeks to show she can get concessions?

    Yes, but why the two week timeframe for that? Why not 1, or 3?

    God knows. The whole thing is a total farce.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 29,203
    Pulpstar said:

    If the Cooper amendment passes, the EU should block a meaningless extension to A50. Force out one of the 5 proper options of revocation, another referendum, passing May's deal, no deal, GE. OK So not all of those are endstates but it moves things forward.

    The Cooper amendment is not going to pass.

  • If I was in his constituency I would canvass for him even though I do not agree with his actions
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 21,324

    Pulpstar said:

    If the Cooper amendment passes, the EU should block a meaningless extension to A50. Force out one of the 5 proper options of revocation, another referendum, passing May's deal, no deal, GE. OK So not all of those are endstates but it moves things forward.

    The Cooper amendment is not going to pass.

    It will be tight, that's for sure.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 2,369
    Can I ask, does anyone here think there is the slightest chance of the Commons approving the deal within a fortnight from now?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 21,324
    Chris said:

    Can I ask, does anyone here think there is the slightest chance of the Commons approving the deal within a fortnight from now?

    Not me.
  • Chris said:

    Can I ask, does anyone here think there is the slightest chance of the Commons approving the deal within a fortnight from now?

    Possible but not certain
  • Awb683Awb683 Posts: 63
    Let the Remainers in the Cabinet resign - we don't need them.
  • Awb683 said:

    Let the Remainers in the Cabinet resign - we don't need them.

    I think you may find you do
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 1,313
    edited January 27
    Chris said:

    Can I ask, does anyone here think there is the slightest chance of the Commons approving the deal within a fortnight from now?

    No chance unless some fundamental changes happen either positively or negatively i.e. the EU dump the backstop (I cannot see that happening) or Brexit supporting MPs are panicked by H of C actions into thinking Brexit will be cancelled and so back the deal but even if the latter were true the numbers for the deal given the colossal defeat in January may still not be there.
  • Chris said:

    Can I ask, does anyone here think there is the slightest chance of the Commons approving the deal within a fortnight from now?

    No chance unless some fundamental changes happen either positively or negatively i.e. the EU dump the backstop (I cannot see that happening) or Brexit supporting MPs are panicked by H of C actions into thinking Brexit will be cancelled and so back the deal but even if the latter were true the numbers for the deal given the colossal defeat in January may still not be there.
    It needs ERG and DUP on board and it should pass
  • Time to go

    Have a pleasant nights rest

    Good night folks
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 1,313
    edited January 27

    Chris said:

    Can I ask, does anyone here think there is the slightest chance of the Commons approving the deal within a fortnight from now?

    No chance unless some fundamental changes happen either positively or negatively i.e. the EU dump the backstop (I cannot see that happening) or Brexit supporting MPs are panicked by H of C actions into thinking Brexit will be cancelled and so back the deal but even if the latter were true the numbers for the deal given the colossal defeat in January may still not be there.
    It needs ERG and DUP on board and it should pass
    I doubt either will change their minds. They are implacably opposed to it. ERG + DUP are fanatics!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 4,300
    edited January 27

    Chris said:

    Can I ask, does anyone here think there is the slightest chance of the Commons approving the deal within a fortnight from now?

    No chance unless some fundamental changes happen either positively or negatively i.e. the EU dump the backstop (I cannot see that happening) or Brexit supporting MPs are panicked by H of C actions into thinking Brexit will be cancelled and so back the deal but even if the latter were true the numbers for the deal given the colossal defeat in January may still not be there.
    It needs ERG and DUP on board and it should pass
    It needs 116 to switch. So it needs them plus a significant number of Labour switchers,
    If the backstop goes (big if) then Dup are there. There are several Erg who do not want anything other than No Deal.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 43,063

    Chris said:

    Can I ask, does anyone here think there is the slightest chance of the Commons approving the deal within a fortnight from now?

    No chance unless some fundamental changes happen either positively or negatively i.e. the EU dump the backstop (I cannot see that happening) or Brexit supporting MPs are panicked by H of C actions into thinking Brexit will be cancelled and so back the deal but even if the latter were true the numbers for the deal given the colossal defeat in January may still not be there.
    It needs ERG and DUP on board and it should pass
    I doubt either will change their minds. They are implacably opposed to it. ERG + DUP are fanatics!
    Oh, I imagine some number can be persuaded to vote for a deal if it was unicorny enough, but it would still require Labour switchers too.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 43,063
    Chris said:

    Can I ask, does anyone here think there is the slightest chance of the Commons approving the deal within a fortnight from now?

    The deal as is? No, not a chance. Passing something but which the EU won't accept? Possibly.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 22,274
    edited January 27
    It seems to me that the Telegraph headline and Steven Swinford's tweet slightly misrepresent what the sensible wing of the Cabinet are saying, as reported in Swinford's article. Clearly they can't force Theresa May to secure a deal - it's not directly in her power, and anyway she's been working her socks off to persuade MPs to do so. The issue, rather, is that the clock is ticking down - indeed, has ticked down to the point where serious, irreversible damage is already being done. Given that crashing out with no deal is completely unthinkable, and no sane politician or government could countenance it, the question therefore is how to avoid it if MPs, despite the PM's best efforts, persist in behaviour likely to lead to such a crash out. The only possible course in that scenario is to seek a delay. The resignation threat, therefore, isn't over the impossible demand that the PM should secure a deal, it's about what needs to be done very, very soon if she doesn't.
  • dixiedean said:

    Chris said:

    Can I ask, does anyone here think there is the slightest chance of the Commons approving the deal within a fortnight from now?

    No chance unless some fundamental changes happen either positively or negatively i.e. the EU dump the backstop (I cannot see that happening) or Brexit supporting MPs are panicked by H of C actions into thinking Brexit will be cancelled and so back the deal but even if the latter were true the numbers for the deal given the colossal defeat in January may still not be there.
    It needs ERG and DUP on board and it should pass
    It needs 116 to switch. So it needs them plus a significant number of Labour switchers,
    Approx 110 ERG and DUP
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 25,553
    Ireland is going to have to make preparations for a hard border before too long.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 555
    kle4 said:

    They aint sing 'Oh Jeremy Corbyn' anymore down at the student cafe:

    Perhaps not. Will they still vote for him though? From what I can see of the story it talks of a surge for a FinalSay, not another party. That's easily fixable for Corbyn either by switching to that, however late in the day, or if the deal gets through without Corbyn's backing somehow.
    It says those saying they'd vote Labour has dropped 10 points - to 52 per cent. Not much in the grand scheme of things but as some of us predicted in the past, it shows the danger to Corbyn. It's not that masses of remain supporting youngsters and metropolitan liberals will turn against Labour en masse, but a similar problem to the one Ed Miliband had when he tried to pivot and reassure middle-England voters he was fiscally responsible. That deflated enthusiasm on the anti-Tory left (including the young) that meant they just didn't turn out in the numbers Labour thought they would in say 2012 when they thought they'd banked the type of people who voted Lib Dem in 2010 and would get at least 35 per cent of the vote. Corbyn faces a similar problem with those who aren't sold on him but are very upset about Brexit and the Tory approach to it in particular. They went Labour in 2017, but if even 3 or 4 percent leak away to the Lib Dems, Greens, Plaid, the SNP, others and sod the lot of you I'm going down the pub, then it becomes very difficult to make the advances Labour needs - especially as Corbyn is very unpopular with some of the other groups of voters that are his other possible routes to a winning electoral coalition.

    Now, ultimately, none of this may matter if the carnage continues. All bets will be off as to where some voters go. He campaigned strongly in 2017 and may be able to make up ground he loses when not in his favoured environment of day to day politics. But it's a worrying sign for him - especially as the magic might not work as well this time.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 43,063

    It seems to me that the Telegraph headline and Steven Swinford's tweet slightly misrepresent what the sensible wing of the Cabinet are saying, as reported in Swinford's article. Clearly they can't force Theresa May to secure a deal - it's not directly in her power, and anyway she's been working her socks off to persuade MPs to do so. The issue, rather, is that the clock is ticking down - indeed, has ticked down to the point where serious, irreversible damage is already being done. Given that crashing out with no deal is completely unthinkable, and no sane politician or government could countenance it, the question therefore is how to avoid it if MPs, despite the PM's best efforts, persist in behaviour likely to lead to such a crash out. The only possible course in that scenario is to seek a delay. The resignation threat, therefore, isn't over the impossible demand that the PM should secure a deal, it's about what needs to be done very, very soon if she doesn't.

    If they think a delay is need to avoid crashing out they should support Cooper, no need to delay on the threat to resign.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 43,063

    dixiedean said:

    Chris said:

    Can I ask, does anyone here think there is the slightest chance of the Commons approving the deal within a fortnight from now?

    No chance unless some fundamental changes happen either positively or negatively i.e. the EU dump the backstop (I cannot see that happening) or Brexit supporting MPs are panicked by H of C actions into thinking Brexit will be cancelled and so back the deal but even if the latter were true the numbers for the deal given the colossal defeat in January may still not be there.
    It needs ERG and DUP on board and it should pass
    It needs 116 to switch. So it needs them plus a significant number of Labour switchers,
    Approx 110 ERG and DUP
    Realistically, and leaving aside the issue of the EU, if the DUP are on board, how many of those are able to be switched? It surely would not be all. So we're back to the initial calculations before it was clear just how hated the deal was, which is how many Labour votes would May need in a situation where most of her party and the DUP are on side. 10? 20? 30?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 4,300

    dixiedean said:

    Chris said:

    Can I ask, does anyone here think there is the slightest chance of the Commons approving the deal within a fortnight from now?

    No chance unless some fundamental changes happen either positively or negatively i.e. the EU dump the backstop (I cannot see that happening) or Brexit supporting MPs are panicked by H of C actions into thinking Brexit will be cancelled and so back the deal but even if the latter were true the numbers for the deal given the colossal defeat in January may still not be there.
    It needs ERG and DUP on board and it should pass
    It needs 116 to switch. So it needs them plus a significant number of Labour switchers,
    Approx 110 ERG and DUP
    There are 100 ERG?
  • kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Chris said:

    Can I ask, does anyone here think there is the slightest chance of the Commons approving the deal within a fortnight from now?

    No chance unless some fundamental changes happen either positively or negatively i.e. the EU dump the backstop (I cannot see that happening) or Brexit supporting MPs are panicked by H of C actions into thinking Brexit will be cancelled and so back the deal but even if the latter were true the numbers for the deal given the colossal defeat in January may still not be there.
    It needs ERG and DUP on board and it should pass
    It needs 116 to switch. So it needs them plus a significant number of Labour switchers,
    Approx 110 ERG and DUP
    Realistically, and leaving aside the issue of the EU, if the DUP are on board, how many of those are able to be switched? It surely would not be all. So we're back to the initial calculations before it was clear just how hated the deal was, which is how many Labour votes would May need in a situation where most of her party and the DUP are on side. 10? 20? 30?
    If the ERG and DUP came on board it would only need 20 - 30 labour mps to switch from leave votings areas for brexit to happen, end the uncertainty, and stop a referendum

    It must be appealing but there are a lot of 'ifs' in there
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 43,063
    edited January 27
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Chris said:

    Can I ask, does anyone here think there is the slightest chance of the Commons approving the deal within a fortnight from now?

    No chance unless some fundamental changes happen either positively or negatively i.e. the EU dump the backstop (I cannot see that happening) or Brexit supporting MPs are panicked by H of C actions into thinking Brexit will be cancelled and so back the deal but even if the latter were true the numbers for the deal given the colossal defeat in January may still not be there.
    It needs ERG and DUP on board and it should pass
    It needs 116 to switch. So it needs them plus a significant number of Labour switchers,
    Approx 110 ERG and DUP
    There are 100 ERG?
    ERG in this context might mean anti-deal Tories more generally. Given some oppose the deal because they want to remain like JoJo clearly they are not brought on board by something more Brexity, plus are there some who backed the deal who might not if the backstop is to be removed (on the not unreasonable basis that that is tantamount to backing no deal if the EU then says no, as they have insisted they will). So you probably need even more Lab MPs on board to get it through.

    Frankly, the country could do a lot worse than a deal that got through thanks to dozens of Labour votes. That's a long way from the 3 on board now though.
  • dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Chris said:

    Can I ask, does anyone here think there is the slightest chance of the Commons approving the deal within a fortnight from now?

    No chance unless some fundamental changes happen either positively or negatively i.e. the EU dump the backstop (I cannot see that happening) or Brexit supporting MPs are panicked by H of C actions into thinking Brexit will be cancelled and so back the deal but even if the latter were true the numbers for the deal given the colossal defeat in January may still not be there.
    It needs ERG and DUP on board and it should pass
    It needs 116 to switch. So it needs them plus a significant number of Labour switchers,
    Approx 110 ERG and DUP
    There are 100 ERG?
    Generally accepted they would vote to support ERG while not being hard brexiteers
  • Anyway - I am off now folks

    Good night
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 27,599
    AndyJS said:

    Ireland is going to have to make preparations for a hard border before too long.

    You mean preparations for a united Ireland?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 43,063

    AndyJS said:

    Ireland is going to have to make preparations for a hard border before too long.

    You mean preparations for a united Ireland?
    Ultimately, but there would be period in between they need to prepare for. They have sought this by their actions. And you seem to agree given what you think will happen.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 7,489
    So - is this "point of principle" to ensure we get a deal.... or to sabotage a possible deal so we stay?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 7,718

    Another average evening in the Jezza Cult. Putting out a load of fake news bollx and argument about how many died in the holocaust.

    On Holocaust Day.



    Since you're so keen on fighting fake news, I'm sure you've checked that that tweeter is indeed a Corbyn supporter? Because a quick Twitter search suggests he's never had a tweet which contained either "Corbyn" or "Labour" in it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 53,498
    If the Meaningful vote on the Deal is defeated a second time then these 10 ministers alone would be enough to provide a majority for a permanent Customs Union given it only lost by 6 votes last summer, EUref2 and Norway Plus would also be on the table if Dealers shifted their position to avoid No Deal
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 7,489
    Danny565 said:

    Another average evening in the Jezza Cult. Putting out a load of fake news bollx and argument about how many died in the holocaust.

    On Holocaust Day.



    Since you're so keen on fighting fake news, I'm sure you've checked that that tweeter is indeed a Corbyn supporter? Because a quick Twitter search suggests he's never had a tweet which contained either "Corbyn" or "Labour" in it.
    A quick look found some outrageous anti semitism and support for Palestine and Che Guevara


    Sound familiar?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 7,718
    Floater said:

    Danny565 said:

    Another average evening in the Jezza Cult. Putting out a load of fake news bollx and argument about how many died in the holocaust.

    On Holocaust Day.



    Since you're so keen on fighting fake news, I'm sure you've checked that that tweeter is indeed a Corbyn supporter? Because a quick Twitter search suggests he's never had a tweet which contained either "Corbyn" or "Labour" in it.
    A quick look found some outrageous anti semitism and support for Palestine and Che Guevara


    Sound familiar?
    Any evidence of support for Corbyn/Labour?
  • Danny565 said:

    Floater said:

    Danny565 said:

    Another average evening in the Jezza Cult. Putting out a load of fake news bollx and argument about how many died in the holocaust.

    On Holocaust Day.



    Since you're so keen on fighting fake news, I'm sure you've checked that that tweeter is indeed a Corbyn supporter? Because a quick Twitter search suggests he's never had a tweet which contained either "Corbyn" or "Labour" in it.
    A quick look found some outrageous anti semitism and support for Palestine and Che Guevara


    Sound familiar?
    Any evidence of support for Corbyn/Labour?
    Last week Floater said he was going to vote for a party led by someone who has been condemned for repeating a well known anti-Semitic trope.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,271
    edited January 27
    HYUFD said:

    If the Meaningful vote on the Deal is defeated a second time then these 10 ministers alone would be enough to provide a majority for a permanent Customs Union given it only lost by 6 votes last summer, EUref2 and Norway Plus would also be on the table if Dealers shifted their position to avoid No Deal

    Brexit is finished. The political establishment has conspired to ignore the wishes of 17.5 million voters who told them they wanted to leave the EU. Democracy is dead in the UK , and parliament has betrayed the people’s instruction . I was a life long Tory voter. Never again to any of the main parties they are a bunch of traitors the lot of them . The uk is finished
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 11,521
    edited January 27
    On Topic All Piss and Wind comes to mind.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 24,661

    O/t, but if anyone hasn't watched The Last Survivors on BBC2 about remaining survivors of the Holocaust, they should make the effort. I'm not always the greatest fan of the BBC's approach to commemorative tv but they stuck to the cardinal rule, let the people speak (plus no pishy backing music).

    Worth watching for Anita Lasker-Wallfisch alone, God she's a tough old bird.

    And the old boy who was out with his father, when Hitler drove past....

    "Did your father give the Nazi salute?"

    "Probably.....it was the safest thing to do....."
  • ChrisChris Posts: 2,369
    I'm puzzled because Betfair's implied probabilities are 21% for leaving on schedule but only 15% for leaving on schedule with no deal.

    If this two-week deadline is based on the time needed for legislation following a deal, and if there's no chance of a deal being passed by then, then the only way we can leave on schedule is No Deal, so those two probabilities should be the same.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 36,889

    On Topic All Piss and Wind comes to mind.

    Did anything ever come of that VI poll you mentioned previously?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 11,521
    Awb683 said:

    Let the Remainers in the Cabinet resign - we don't need them.

    You do.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 13,473

    O/t, but if anyone hasn't watched The Last Survivors on BBC2 about remaining survivors of the Holocaust, they should make the effort. I'm not always the greatest fan of the BBC's approach to commemorative tv but they stuck to the cardinal rule, let the people speak (plus no pishy backing music).

    Worth watching for Anita Lasker-Wallfisch alone, God she's a tough old bird.

    And the old boy who was out with his father, when Hitler drove past....

    "Did your father give the Nazi salute?"

    "Probably.....it was the safest thing to do....."
    It was a very good documentary. All the more powerful for just letting the people speak.

    That and More 4's documentary yesterday on Night Must Fall, the documentary made about the discovery of Bergen-Belsen, are must see's. The latter, though, is very grim viewing indeed.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 11,521

    Danny565 said:

    Floater said:

    Danny565 said:

    Another average evening in the Jezza Cult. Putting out a load of fake news bollx and argument about how many died in the holocaust.

    On Holocaust Day.



    Since you're so keen on fighting fake news, I'm sure you've checked that that tweeter is indeed a Corbyn supporter? Because a quick Twitter search suggests he's never had a tweet which contained either "Corbyn" or "Labour" in it.
    A quick look found some outrageous anti semitism and support for Palestine and Che Guevara


    Sound familiar?
    Any evidence of support for Corbyn/Labour?
    Last week Floater said he was going to vote for a party led by someone who has been condemned for repeating a well known anti-Semitic trope.
    Who?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 13,473
    On topic, I'm becoming both bored and depressed by Brexit. It will be No Deal. God knows what happens next. I will be mildly pleasantly surprised if it is anything other than No Deal.

    All the rest is noise by MPs unwilling to take any effective action.
  • Danny565 said:

    Floater said:

    Danny565 said:

    Another average evening in the Jezza Cult. Putting out a load of fake news bollx and argument about how many died in the holocaust.

    On Holocaust Day.



    Since you're so keen on fighting fake news, I'm sure you've checked that that tweeter is indeed a Corbyn supporter? Because a quick Twitter search suggests he's never had a tweet which contained either "Corbyn" or "Labour" in it.
    A quick look found some outrageous anti semitism and support for Palestine and Che Guevara


    Sound familiar?
    Any evidence of support for Corbyn/Labour?
    Last week Floater said he was going to vote for a party led by someone who has been condemned for repeating a well known anti-Semitic trope.
    Who?
    Nigel Farage.

    https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/nigel-farage-condemned-over-jewish-lobby-comment-1.447010
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 43,063
    Cyclefree said:

    O/t, but if anyone hasn't watched The Last Survivors on BBC2 about remaining survivors of the Holocaust, they should make the effort. I'm not always the greatest fan of the BBC's approach to commemorative tv but they stuck to the cardinal rule, let the people speak (plus no pishy backing music).

    Worth watching for Anita Lasker-Wallfisch alone, God she's a tough old bird.

    And the old boy who was out with his father, when Hitler drove past....

    "Did your father give the Nazi salute?"

    "Probably.....it was the safest thing to do....."
    It was a very good documentary. All the more powerful for just letting the people speak.

    That and More 4's documentary yesterday on Night Must Fall, the documentary made about the discovery of Bergen-Belsen, are must see's. The latter, though, is very grim viewing indeed.
    You have to be in the right mood for it, I'm sure. I just watched Schindler's List for the first time, me and 1 other person in a 300 seat cinema, and that was grim enough, and its far from the grimmest thing to see.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 11,521

    Danny565 said:

    Floater said:

    Danny565 said:

    Another average evening in the Jezza Cult. Putting out a load of fake news bollx and argument about how many died in the holocaust.

    On Holocaust Day.



    Since you're so keen on fighting fake news, I'm sure you've checked that that tweeter is indeed a Corbyn supporter? Because a quick Twitter search suggests he's never had a tweet which contained either "Corbyn" or "Labour" in it.
    A quick look found some outrageous anti semitism and support for Palestine and Che Guevara


    Sound familiar?
    Any evidence of support for Corbyn/Labour?
    Last week Floater said he was going to vote for a party led by someone who has been condemned for repeating a well known anti-Semitic trope.
    Who?
    Nigel Farage.

    https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/nigel-farage-condemned-over-jewish-lobby-comment-1.447010
    Floating to the extreme right!!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 43,063
    Cyclefree said:

    On topic, I'm becoming both bored and depressed by Brexit. It will be No Deal. God knows what happens next. I will be mildly pleasantly surprised if it is anything other than No Deal.

    All the rest is noise by MPs unwilling to take any effective action.

    Best case scenario some of the upcoming votes at least close of some things, but it doesn't look promising, especially if it just asking for more time.

    We get it MPs, this is not an easy choice given what you want, want the public contradictorily wants, and what can be achieved. But it's time to step up, you all asked to be given authority over the country after all, and the usual partisan lines from your parties won't cut it.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,271
    Cyclefree said:

    On topic, I'm becoming both bored and depressed by Brexit. It will be No Deal. God knows what happens next. I will be mildly pleasantly surprised if it is anything other than No Deal.

    All the rest is noise by MPs unwilling to take any effective action.

    Do you really think with parliament doing all it can to prevent no deal that no deal is even possible now ?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 13,473
    kjohnw said:

    Cyclefree said:

    On topic, I'm becoming both bored and depressed by Brexit. It will be No Deal. God knows what happens next. I will be mildly pleasantly surprised if it is anything other than No Deal.

    All the rest is noise by MPs unwilling to take any effective action.

    Do you really think with parliament doing all it can to prevent no deal that no deal is even possible now ?

    No Deal is what will happen under the legislation passed by Parliament. Unless something else happens to stop that legislation coming into effect. Once the two years under Article 50 are up, we're out. Unless..... And the signs of that unless happening are .... what, exactly?
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,271
    edited January 28
    kjohnw said:

    Cyclefree said:

    On topic, I'm becoming both bored and depressed by Brexit. It will be No Deal. God knows what happens next. I will be mildly pleasantly surprised if it is anything other than No Deal.

    All the rest is noise by MPs unwilling to take any effective action.

    Do you really think with parliament doing all it can to prevent no deal that no deal is even possible now ?
    TM could Revoke a50,or go for permanent Cu to get deal through? Both would be repungent to the tory party of course
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 13,473
    edited January 28
    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    O/t, but if anyone hasn't watched The Last Survivors on BBC2 about remaining survivors of the Holocaust, they should make the effort. I'm not always the greatest fan of the BBC's approach to commemorative tv but they stuck to the cardinal rule, let the people speak (plus no pishy backing music).

    Worth watching for Anita Lasker-Wallfisch alone, God she's a tough old bird.

    And the old boy who was out with his father, when Hitler drove past....

    "Did your father give the Nazi salute?"

    "Probably.....it was the safest thing to do....."
    It was a very good documentary. All the more powerful for just letting the people speak.

    That and More 4's documentary yesterday on Night Must Fall, the documentary made about the discovery of Bergen-Belsen, are must see's. The latter, though, is very grim viewing indeed.
    You have to be in the right mood for it, I'm sure. I just watched Schindler's List for the first time, me and 1 other person in a 300 seat cinema, and that was grim enough, and its far from the grimmest thing to see.

    I don't think there is ever a right mood for these things. But there are things we need to know about, even it is not pleasant to know or see such things.

    I watched Shoah, the documentary years ago. It was on TV. I taped it and watched it in doses. It does not show any of the awful films. It is people talking and films of green fields where awful things happened. But the cumulative effect is appalling. A great documentary. I would not - could not, would be more accurate - see it again. But important for all of us to see and know and remember, before this does become history and the voices saying that it is all untrue and made up and exaggerated continue to to get louder and louder and nastier and nastier.

    These survivors and their families have been very brave to speak as they have. It cannot have been at all easy for them. If they can show that level of courage then it is not much to ask of the rest of us to listen to them.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 10,957
    kjohnw said:


    Brexit is finished...
    Democracy is dead...
    The uk is finished

    Is Coronation Street still going?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 2,369
    kjohnw said:

    Cyclefree said:

    On topic, I'm becoming both bored and depressed by Brexit. It will be No Deal. God knows what happens next. I will be mildly pleasantly surprised if it is anything other than No Deal.

    All the rest is noise by MPs unwilling to take any effective action.

    Do you really think with parliament doing all it can to prevent no deal that no deal is even possible now ?
    The trouble is that the sensible ways out of this are forbidden because they would break the Tory party. Maybe the Commons will eventually pass the Deal if it's left with a straight choice between that and No Deal.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 53,498
    edited January 28
    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    Cyclefree said:

    On topic, I'm becoming both bored and depressed by Brexit. It will be No Deal. God knows what happens next. I will be mildly pleasantly surprised if it is anything other than No Deal.

    All the rest is noise by MPs unwilling to take any effective action.

    Do you really think with parliament doing all it can to prevent no deal that no deal is even possible now ?
    TM could Revoke a50,or go for permanent Cu to get deal through? Both would be repungent to the tory party of course
    Revoke a50 won't happen but if the Deal does not get through a second time it is clear at least 50 Tory MPs who backed the Deal will vote with the opposition (the 10 ministers ready to resign to stop No Deal are just the tip of the iceberg) most likely for permanent Customs Union which Gavin Barwell and Philip Hammond are now pushing, if not Norway plus or Remain v Deal referendum to avoid No Deal. That gives about 350 MPs for a more BINO Brexit or EUref2 ie a clear majority
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,271

    kjohnw said:


    Brexit is finished...
    Democracy is dead...
    The uk is finished

    Is Coronation Street still going?
    That and PG Tips!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 43,063
    Cyclefree said:

    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    O/t, but if anyone hasn't watched The Last Survivors on BBC2 about remaining survivors of the Holocaust, they should make the effort. I'm not always the greatest fan of the BBC's approach to commemorative tv but they stuck to the cardinal rule, let the people speak (plus no pishy backing music).

    Worth watching for Anita Lasker-Wallfisch alone, God she's a tough old bird.

    And the old boy who was out with his father, when Hitler drove past....

    "Did your father give the Nazi salute?"

    "Probably.....it was the safest thing to do....."
    It was a very good documentary. All the more powerful for just letting the people speak.

    That and More 4's documentary yesterday on Night Must Fall, the documentary made about the discovery of Bergen-Belsen, are must see's. The latter, though, is very grim viewing indeed.
    You have to be in the right mood for it, I'm sure. I just watched Schindler's List for the first time, me and 1 other person in a 300 seat cinema, and that was grim enough, and its far from the grimmest thing to see.

    I don't think there is ever a right mood for these things. But there are things we need to know about, even it is not pleasant to know or see such things.

    I watched Shoah, the documentary years ago. It was on TV. I taped it and watched it in doses. It does not show any of the awful films. It is people talking and films of green fields where awful things happened. But the cumulative effect is appalling. A great documentary. I would not - could not, would be more accurate - see it again. But important for all of us to see and know and remember, before this does become history and the voices saying that it is all untrue and made up and exaggerated continue to to get louder and louder and nastier and nastier.

    These survivors and their families have been very brave to speak as they have. It cannot have been at all easy for them. If they can show that level of courage then it is not much to ask of the rest of us to listen to them.
    By right mood I mean being able to handle it, not like it's ever going to be pleasant.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 24,661
    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:


    Brexit is finished...
    Democracy is dead...
    The uk is finished

    Is Coronation Street still going?
    That and PG Tips!
    As long as we still have Chocolate Hobnobs, we'll get through this.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,271
    HYUFD said:

    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    Cyclefree said:

    On topic, I'm becoming both bored and depressed by Brexit. It will be No Deal. God knows what happens next. I will be mildly pleasantly surprised if it is anything other than No Deal.

    All the rest is noise by MPs unwilling to take any effective action.

    Do you really think with parliament doing all it can to prevent no deal that no deal is even possible now ?
    TM could Revoke a50,or go for permanent Cu to get deal through? Both would be repungent to the tory party of course
    Revoke a50 won't happen but if the Deal does not get through a second time it is clear at least 50 Tory MPs who backed the Deal will vote with the opposition, most likely for permanent Customs Union if not Norway plus or Remain v Deal referendum to avoid No Deal. That gives about 350 MPs for a more BINO Brexit or EUref2 ie a clear majority
    So you think no deal is impossible now? No chance whatsoever
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 1,517
    Chris said:

    I'm puzzled because Betfair's implied probabilities are 21% for leaving on schedule but only 15% for leaving on schedule with no deal.

    If this two-week deadline is based on the time needed for legislation following a deal, and if there's no chance of a deal being passed by then, then the only way we can leave on schedule is No Deal, so those two probabilities should be the same.

    Quite, but not only are there people (TMay?) who think it's possible to get the WA etc. sorted by B-Day, there are people who think it's possible to get an amended WA sorted by B-Day (CFlint among many others), and there are even people (JCorbyn?) who think Labour can get a WA enacted by B-Day. Brexit has sent everyone doolally.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,271

    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:


    Brexit is finished...
    Democracy is dead...
    The uk is finished

    Is Coronation Street still going?
    That and PG Tips!
    As long as we still have Chocolate Hobnobs, we'll get through this.
    You may have to stockpile if you believe the rumours
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 1,517
    kjohnw said:

    HYUFD said:

    If the Meaningful vote on the Deal is defeated a second time then these 10 ministers alone would be enough to provide a majority for a permanent Customs Union given it only lost by 6 votes last summer, EUref2 and Norway Plus would also be on the table if Dealers shifted their position to avoid No Deal

    Brexit is finished. The political establishment has conspired to ignore the wishes of 17.5 million voters who told them they wanted to leave the EU. Democracy is dead in the UK , and parliament has betrayed the people’s instruction . I was a life long Tory voter. Never again to any of the main parties they are a bunch of traitors the lot of them . The uk is finished
    Give over. Brexit will happen (unfortunately) but it will happen in a form that is palatable to the people. You're just upset that you won't get the form of Brexit that you prefer.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,271
    HYUFD said:

    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    Cyclefree said:

    On topic, I'm becoming both bored and depressed by Brexit. It will be No Deal. God knows what happens next. I will be mildly pleasantly surprised if it is anything other than No Deal.

    All the rest is noise by MPs unwilling to take any effective action.

    Do you really think with parliament doing all it can to prevent no deal that no deal is even possible now ?
    TM could Revoke a50,or go for permanent Cu to get deal through? Both would be repungent to the tory party of course
    Revoke a50 won't happen but if the Deal does not get through a second time it is clear at least 50 Tory MPs who backed the Deal will vote with the opposition (the 10 ministers ready to resign to stop No Deal are just the tip of the iceberg) most likely for permanent Customs Union which Gavin Barwell and Philip Hammond are now pushing, if not Norway plus or Remain v Deal referendum to avoid No Deal. That gives about 350 MPs for a more BINO Brexit or EUref2 ie a clear majority
    Surely EEA is better than permanent CU with no single market access ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 53,498
    kjohnw said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    Cyclefree said:

    On topic, I'm becoming both bored and depressed by Brexit. It will be No Deal. God knows what happens next. I will be mildly pleasantly surprised if it is anything other than No Deal.

    All the rest is noise by MPs unwilling to take any effective action.

    Do you really think with parliament doing all it can to prevent no deal that no deal is even possible now ?
    TM could Revoke a50,or go for permanent Cu to get deal through? Both would be repungent to the tory party of course
    Revoke a50 won't happen but if the Deal does not get through a second time it is clear at least 50 Tory MPs who backed the Deal will vote with the opposition, most likely for permanent Customs Union if not Norway plus or Remain v Deal referendum to avoid No Deal. That gives about 350 MPs for a more BINO Brexit or EUref2 ie a clear majority
    So you think no deal is impossible now? No chance whatsoever
    I think it is near impossible in the sense a majority of MPs will vote for BINO or even EUref2 over No Deal. No Deal's only chance is for May to dig her heels in and pitch the executive against the legislature but that risks the biggest constitutional crisis for decades and I think in the end May will accept, albeit reluctantly, what Parliament decides.

    The ERG gambled that by rejecting May's Deal they would get No Deal hard Brexit, instead in my view it is more likely now they will end up with BINO or even Remain v Deal EUref2
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 10,957
    edited January 28
    kle4 said:

    This is yet another really stupid story. I get it is about these ministers not quitting to support Cooper's remain plan, but why 2 weeks? What concession will the EU make to get on board those needed to approve the plan, or vice versa, in just 2 weeks? That's not in May's power.

    The quoted text makes sense but the headlines are a mess. When that happens the headlines are normally wrong. So I'd read this as:

    * TMay is saying "stick with me, I got this"
    * Cooper has an alternative plan, sort-of
    * The Cabinet remainers want to back TMay until it's clear she's failed, then use the Cooper plan as Plan B
    * TMay seems to be eternally stalling, so they want a point at which they can say she did or didn't fail, and if she did they're doing Plan B
    * Their demand is for a new Meaningful Vote within 2 weeks (not for a particular result to that vote, which she obviously can't promise) at which point either The Deal has won or they're going to Unleash The Cooper
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,271
    Dadge said:

    kjohnw said:

    HYUFD said:

    If the Meaningful vote on the Deal is defeated a second time then these 10 ministers alone would be enough to provide a majority for a permanent Customs Union given it only lost by 6 votes last summer, EUref2 and Norway Plus would also be on the table if Dealers shifted their position to avoid No Deal

    Brexit is finished. The political establishment has conspired to ignore the wishes of 17.5 million voters who told them they wanted to leave the EU. Democracy is dead in the UK , and parliament has betrayed the people’s instruction . I was a life long Tory voter. Never again to any of the main parties they are a bunch of traitors the lot of them . The uk is finished
    Give over. Brexit will happen (unfortunately) but it will happen in a form that is palatable to the people. You're just upset that you won't get the form of Brexit that you prefer.
    You really think SM , FOM, and CU and being tied forever to EU rules and ECJ judgments is going to ‘palatable ‘ to the people of the UK , I think it’s you who needs to give over
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 53,498
    kjohnw said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    Cyclefree said:

    On topic, I'm becoming both bored and depressed by Brexit. It will be No Deal. God knows what happens next. I will be mildly pleasantly surprised if it is anything other than No Deal.

    All the rest is noise by MPs unwilling to take any effective action.

    Do you really think with parliament doing all it can to prevent no deal that no deal is even possible now ?
    TM could Revoke a50,or go for permanent Cu to get deal through? Both would be repungent to the tory party of course
    Revoke a50 won't happen but if the Deal does not get through a second time it is clear at least 50 Tory MPs who backed the Deal will vote with the opposition (the 10 ministers ready to resign to stop No Deal are just the tip of the iceberg) most likely for permanent Customs Union which Gavin Barwell and Philip Hammond are now pushing, if not Norway plus or Remain v Deal referendum to avoid No Deal. That gives about 350 MPs for a more BINO Brexit or EUref2 ie a clear majority
    Surely EEA is better than permanent CU with no single market access ?
    No as it requires free movement thus EEA has less support amongst MPs due to Labour MPs from Leave seats and Corbyn opposing EEA but backing permanent Customs Union.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 43,063

    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:


    Brexit is finished...
    Democracy is dead...
    The uk is finished

    Is Coronation Street still going?
    That and PG Tips!
    As long as we still have Chocolate Hobnobs, we'll get through this.
    Amen to that.
    HYUFD said:

    kjohnw said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    Cyclefree said:

    On topic, I'm becoming both bored and depressed by Brexit. It will be No Deal. God knows what happens next. I will be mildly pleasantly surprised if it is anything other than No Deal.

    All the rest is noise by MPs unwilling to take any effective action.

    Do you really think with parliament doing all it can to prevent no deal that no deal is even possible now ?
    TM could Revoke a50,or go for permanent Cu to get deal through? Both would be repungent to the tory party of course
    Revoke a50 won't happen but if the Deal does not get through a second time it is clear at least 50 Tory MPs who backed the Deal will vote with the opposition, most likely for permanent Customs Union if not Norway plus or Remain v Deal referendum to avoid No Deal. That gives about 350 MPs for a more BINO Brexit or EUref2 ie a clear majority
    So you think no deal is impossible now? No chance whatsoever
    I think it is near impossible in the sense a majority of MPs will vote for BINO or even EUref2 over No Deal. No Deal's only chance is for May to dig her heels in and pitch the executive against the legislature but that risks the biggest constitutional crisis for decades and I think in the end May will accept, albeit reluctantly, what Parliament decides.

    The ERG gambled that by rejecting May's Deal they would get No Deal hard Brexit, instead in my view it is more likely now they will end up with BINO or even Remain v Deal EUref2
    I hope so.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,271
    HYUFD said:

    kjohnw said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    Cyclefree said:

    On topic, I'm becoming both bored and depressed by Brexit. It will be No Deal. God knows what happens next. I will be mildly pleasantly surprised if it is anything other than No Deal.

    All the rest is noise by MPs unwilling to take any effective action.

    Do you really think with parliament doing all it can to prevent no deal that no deal is even possible now ?
    TM could Revoke a50,or go for permanent Cu to get deal through? Both would be repungent to the tory party of course
    Revoke a50 won't happen but if the Deal does not get through a second time it is clear at least 50 Tory MPs who backed the Deal will vote with the opposition (the 10 ministers ready to resign to stop No Deal are just the tip of the iceberg) most likely for permanent Customs Union which Gavin Barwell and Philip Hammond are now pushing, if not Norway plus or Remain v Deal referendum to avoid No Deal. That gives about 350 MPs for a more BINO Brexit or EUref2 ie a clear majority
    Surely EEA is better than permanent CU with no single market access ?
    No as it requires free movement thus EEA has less support amongst MPs due to Labour MPs from Leave seats and Corbyn opposing EEA but backing permanent Customs Union.
    I mean better from a uk economy sense
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 53,498
    edited January 28
    kjohnw said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjohnw said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    Cyclefree said:

    On topic, I'm becoming both bored and depressed by Brexit. It will be No Deal. God knows what happens next. I will be mildly pleasantly surprised if it is anything other than No Deal.

    All the rest is noise by MPs unwilling to take any effective action.

    Do you really think with parliament doing all it can to prevent no deal that no deal is even possible now ?
    TM could Revoke a50,or go for permanent Cu to get deal through? Both would be repungent to the tory party of course
    Revoke a50 won't happen but if the Deal does not get through a second time it is clear at least 50 Tory MPs who backed the Deal will vote with the opposition (the 10 ministers ready to resign to stop No Deal are just the tip of the iceberg) most likely for permanent Customs Union which Gavin Barwell and Philip Hammond are now pushing, if not Norway plus or Remain v Deal referendum to avoid No Deal. That gives about 350 MPs for a more BINO Brexit or EUref2 ie a clear majority
    Surely EEA is better than permanent CU with no single market access ?
    No as it requires free movement thus EEA has less support amongst MPs due to Labour MPs from Leave seats and Corbyn opposing EEA but backing permanent Customs Union.
    I mean better from a uk economy sense
    Possibly but permanent Customs Union has more chance of getting through Parliament.

    301 MPs voted for permanent Customs Union last summer, only 126 MPs voted for Umunna's amendment to stay in the EEA.

    Juncker also said yesterday the EU would accept a renegotiation based on a permanent Customs Union but not one based on no backstop
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 1,517
    edited January 28
    kjohnw said:

    Dadge said:

    kjohnw said:

    HYUFD said:

    If the Meaningful vote on the Deal is defeated a second time then these 10 ministers alone would be enough to provide a majority for a permanent Customs Union given it only lost by 6 votes last summer, EUref2 and Norway Plus would also be on the table if Dealers shifted their position to avoid No Deal

    Brexit is finished. The political establishment has conspired to ignore the wishes of 17.5 million voters who told them they wanted to leave the EU. Democracy is dead in the UK , and parliament has betrayed the people’s instruction . I was a life long Tory voter. Never again to any of the main parties they are a bunch of traitors the lot of them . The uk is finished
    Give over. Brexit will happen (unfortunately) but it will happen in a form that is palatable to the people. You're just upset that you won't get the form of Brexit that you prefer.
    You really think SM , FOM, and CU and being tied forever to EU rules and ECJ judgments is going to ‘palatable ‘ to the people of the UK , I think it’s you who needs to give over
    It is getting on my nerves that a third of the population are whinging so much about WINNING a referendum. Have some empathy for the third of the population who are dreading the 29th of March. (I'm assuming that the middle third of the population aren't that fussed either way.) After that date the UK will have a certain relationship with the EU which will change over the years depending on the democratic will of the British people. If you think that relationship should be loosened, you can campaign for that. But we will be out of the EU, which is what people voted for in the referendum.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,271
    HYUFD said:

    kjohnw said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    Cyclefree said:

    On topic, I'm becoming both bored and depressed by Brexit. It will be No Deal. God knows what happens next. I will be mildly pleasantly surprised if it is anything other than No Deal.

    All the rest is noise by MPs unwilling to take any effective action.

    Do you really think with parliament doing all it can to prevent no deal that no deal is even possible now ?
    TM could Revoke a50,or go for permanent Cu to get deal through? Both would be repungent to the tory party of course
    Revoke a50 won't happen but if the Deal does not get through a second time it is clear at least 50 Tory MPs who backed the Deal will vote with the opposition, most likely for permanent Customs Union if not Norway plus or Remain v Deal referendum to avoid No Deal. That gives about 350 MPs for a more BINO Brexit or EUref2 ie a clear majority
    So you think no deal is impossible now? No chance whatsoever
    I think it is near impossible in the sense a majority of MPs will vote for BINO or even EUref2 over No Deal. No Deal's only chance is for May to dig her heels in and pitch the executive against the legislature but that risks the biggest constitutional crisis for decades and I think in the end May will accept, albeit reluctantly, what Parliament decides.

    The ERG gambled that by rejecting May's Deal they would get No Deal hard Brexit, instead in my view it is more likely now they will end up with BINO or even Remain v Deal EUref2
    southam observer & cyclefree think it’s going no deal and correct me if I’m wrong but TSE rates the chance at 75% of no deal. Surely being the default position the risks are high. What mechanism can parliament prevent the Government from allowing no deal?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 53,498
    kjohnw said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjohnw said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    Cyclefree said:

    On topic, I'm becoming both bored and depressed by Brexit. It will be No Deal. God knows what happens next. I will be mildly pleasantly surprised if it is anything other than No Deal.

    All the rest is noise by MPs unwilling to take any effective action.

    Do you really think with parliament doing all it can to prevent no deal that no deal is even possible now ?
    TM could Revoke a50,or go for permanent Cu to get deal through? Both would be repungent to the tory party of course
    Revoke a50 won't happen but if the Deal does not get through a second time it is clear at least 50 Tory MPs who backed the Deal will vote with the opposition, most likely for permanent Customs Union if not Norway plus or Remain v Deal referendum to avoid No Deal. That gives about 350 MPs for a more BINO Brexit or EUref2 ie a clear majority
    So you think no deal is impossible now? No chance whatsoever
    I think it is near impossible in the sense a majority of MPs will vote for BINO or even EUref2 over No Deal. No Deal's only chance is for May to dig her heels in and pitch the executive against the legislature but that risks the biggest constitutional crisis for decades and I think in the end May will accept, albeit reluctantly, what Parliament decides.

    The ERG gambled that by rejecting May's Deal they would get No Deal hard Brexit, instead in my view it is more likely now they will end up with BINO or even Remain v Deal EUref2
    southam observer & cyclefree think it’s going no deal and correct me if I’m wrong but TSE rates the chance at 75% of no deal. Surely being the default position the risks are high. What mechanism can parliament prevent the Government from allowing no deal?
    Voting for permanent Customs Union which is very likely now, coupled with voting to extend Article 50 too.

    Southsm Observer and TSE just want No Deal as they think it will lead to us rejoining the EU and the Euro, in reality there is no Commons majority for No Deal. As I said the only way realistically No Deal happens is for May to reject a Commons vote for say permanent Customs Union, see half her Ministers resign in the process and provoke the biggest constitutional crisis since the Abdication in a clash between the legislature and the executive. I do not think that will happen especially as it would make a successful VONC in her Government then become likely
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 1,517
    edited January 28
    HYUFD said:

    kjohnw said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjohnw said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    Cyclefree said:

    On topic, I'm becoming both bored and depressed by Brexit. It will be No Deal. God knows what happens next. I will be mildly pleasantly surprised if it is anything other than No Deal.

    All the rest is noise by MPs unwilling to take any effective action.

    Do you really think with parliament doing all it can to prevent no deal that no deal is even possible now ?
    TM could Revoke a50,or go for permanent Cu to get deal through? Both would be repungent to the tory party of course
    Revoke a50 won't happen but if the Deal does not get through a second time it is clear at least 50 Tory MPs who backed the Deal will vote with the opposition (the 10 ministers ready to resign to stop No Deal are just the tip of the iceberg) most likely for permanent Customs Union which Gavin Barwell and Philip Hammond are now pushing, if not Norway plus or Remain v Deal referendum to avoid No Deal. That gives about 350 MPs for a more BINO Brexit or EUref2 ie a clear majority
    Surely EEA is better than permanent CU with no single market access ?
    No as it requires free movement thus EEA has less support amongst MPs due to Labour MPs from Leave seats and Corbyn opposing EEA but backing permanent Customs Union.
    I mean better from a uk economy sense
    Possibly but permanent Customs Union has more chance of getting through Parliament.

    301 MPs voted for permanent Customs Union last summer, only 126 MPs voted for Umunna's amendment to stay in the EEA.

    Juncker also said yesterday the EU would accept a renegotiation based on a permanent Customs Union but not one based on no backstop
    Bien sur. Because of the Irish border problem, one or the other is required. But don't place too much emphasis on the word "permanent". There are lots of ideas about how to solve the Irish border problem, and if any of them actually work, at a future date the UK will be able to wangle its way out of the currently agreed arrangements.

    Before the referendum, many (most?) Leavers were realistic about the Irish border problem (and about general business concerns) and acknowledged the need for a customs union. (What was anathema to many of them was the political union, not the economic union.) It's only since the referendum that a lot of Brexiters have become more unrealistic.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 53,498
    Dadge said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjohnw said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjohnw said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    Cyclefree said:

    On topic, I'm becoming both bored and depressed by Brexit. It will be No Deal. God knows what happens next. I will be mildly pleasantly surprised if it is anything other than No Deal.

    All the rest is noise by MPs unwilling to take any effective action.

    Do you really think with parliament doing all it can to prevent no deal that no deal is even possible now ?
    TM could Revoke a50,or go for permanent Cu to get deal through? Both would be repungent to the tory party of course
    Revoke a50 won't happen but if the Deal does not get through a second time it is clear at least 50 Tory MPs who backed the Deal will vote with the opposition (the 10 ministers ready to resign to stop No Deal are just the tip of the iceberg) most likely for permanent Customs Union which Gavin Barwell and Philip Hammond are now pushing, if not Norway plus or Remain v Deal referendum to avoid No Deal. That gives about 350 MPs for a more BINO Brexit or EUref2 ie a clear majority
    Surely EEA is better than permanent CU with no single market access ?
    No as it requires free movement thus EEA has less support amongst MPs due to Labour MPs from Leave seats and Corbyn opposing EEA but backing permanent Customs Union.
    I mean better from a uk economy sense
    Possibly but permanent Customs Union has more chance of getting through Parliament.

    301 MPs voted for permanent Customs Union last summer, only 126 MPs voted for Umunna's amendment to stay in the EEA.

    Juncker also said yesterday the EU would accept a renegotiation based on a permanent Customs Union but not one based on no backstop
    Bien sur. Because of the Irish border problem, one or the other is required. But don't place too much emphasis on the word "permanent". There are lots of ideas about how to solve the Irish border problem, and if any of them actually work, at a future date the UK will be able to wangle its way out of the currently agreed arrangements.

    Before the referendum, many (most?) Leavers were realistic about the Irish problem (and about general business concerns) and acknowledged the need for a customs union. (What was anathema to many of them was the political union, not the economic union.) It's only since the referendum that a lot of Brexiters have become more unrealistic.
    May's Deal was the best Brexiteers were going to get, if there was no Commons majority for that customs union and single market were always going to be more likely to get a majority in Parliament than No Deal, especially the former
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 34,054
    edited January 28
    Danny565 said:

    Another average evening in the Jezza Cult. Putting out a load of fake news bollx and argument about how many died in the holocaust.

    On Holocaust Day.



    Since you're so keen on fighting fake news, I'm sure you've checked that that tweeter is indeed a Corbyn supporter? Because a quick Twitter search suggests he's never had a tweet which contained either "Corbyn" or "Labour" in it.
    That [email protected] handle screams Russian meddling run account.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 1,456

    They aint sing 'Oh Jeremy Corbyn' anymore down at the student cafe:

    Was there any good reason for Corbyn to go to Glastonbury in 2017 and say he would be PM by the end of the year. It seems like such a stupid thing to do. Promise something you can’t deliver.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 34,054
    edited January 28

    They aint sing 'Oh Jeremy Corbyn' anymore down at the student cafe:

    Was there any good reason for Corbyn to go to Glastonbury in 2017 and say he would be PM by the end of the year. It seems like such a stupid thing to do. Promise something you can’t deliver.
    Don't get high on your own supply...in Jezza's case he breathed in too much of his own hippy crack and overstretched.

    I still don't believe all the students are going to be switching to Lib Dems though.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 10,957
    20,000 people at the Kamala Harris rally.

    On the one hand that shows serious support this early, making her a pretty formidable contender.

    On the other hand that's 20,000 people who got to experience first-hand that she isn't very good.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 25,553
    edited January 28
    As well as Amber Rudd, Greg Clark, David Gauke, Caroline Nokes, other possible names are probably Damian Hinds, Claire Perry, Tobias Ellwood, Alan Duncan, Alistair Burt, Nick Hurd, Rory Stewart, Geoffrey Cox, Philip Hammond.
This discussion has been closed.