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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With 60 days to go the uncertainty is greater than ever

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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    However, it will be progress, of a sort, if all the amendments fail. Maybe, just maybe, we can count on MPs to do the right thing, after they have exhausted all other possibilities.

    If all the amendments fail, the chances of a fresh referendum must rise sharply. If Parliament is incapable of making the decision, the public will have to be asked again.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929

    Completely O/T, but this must be the weirdest housing estate ever built:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/28/fate-of-castles-in-the-air-in-turkeys-151m-ghost-town

    Atilla Yesilada, Turkey analyst for GlobalSource Partners, an emerging markets analysis firm, said Burj al Babas’s fate was a snapshot of the wider malaise plaguing the Turkish construction sector. “It’s not just the homebuilders who go bankrupt. The people who supply goods to those industries – the architects, the technicians, the glass and steel makers – those people suffer too,” he said.

    *Gulp* !
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    IanB2 said:


    What is objectionable is people living abroad like Sandpit (and Archer before him) advocating pain for the country and talking about the consequences in first person plural tense when they are safely set up thousands of miles away.

    Jeesh. This is very very unfair on @Sandpit, he wishes to return to blighty but due to the immigration rules he is unable to with his family ! This doesn't render his arguments moot.
    For the last time, he is entitled to put his arguments. What he is not entitled to do is pretend that he is in the same boat.
    He never did.

    I would use “We” as well when referring to the British population as a whole. But I suspect I’d have more options than most. That fact doesn’t invalidate my opinions
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929

    However, it will be progress, of a sort, if all the amendments fail. Maybe, just maybe, we can count on MPs to do the right thing, after they have exhausted all other possibilities.

    If all the amendments fail, the chances of a fresh referendum must rise sharply. If Parliament is incapable of making the decision, the public will have to be asked again.
    I think Cooper-Boles, Grieve and Spelman will pass if selected.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Pulpstar said:

    However, it will be progress, of a sort, if all the amendments fail. Maybe, just maybe, we can count on MPs to do the right thing, after they have exhausted all other possibilities.

    If all the amendments fail, the chances of a fresh referendum must rise sharply. If Parliament is incapable of making the decision, the public will have to be asked again.
    I think Cooper-Boles, Grieve and Spelman will pass if selected.
    I think that's right. I was following Richard's hypothesis up.
  • Options

    However, it will be progress, of a sort, if all the amendments fail. Maybe, just maybe, we can count on MPs to do the right thing, after they have exhausted all other possibilities.

    If all the amendments fail, the chances of a fresh referendum must rise sharply. If Parliament is incapable of making the decision, the public will have to be asked again.
    Only if there's Commons backing for a referendum, and realistically government support as well. It's far from obvious that there is the first, and there certainly isn't the second at the moment.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,965
    kinabalu said:

    viewcode said:

    Peter Capaldi in the first series of "The Thick Of It" in 2005 was 47. In his last series of Doctor Who in 2017 was 58. His aging is dramatic.

    Men start to 'go over' at about 52. Certainly at 58 they are gone. They can still carry on if they really want to and many do - being CEOs, being Dr Who, staying in the cabinet, presenting documentaries on TV, running for president - but IMO it is all a bit uncalled for.
    About 52? That's me done for then.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Anorak said:

    Sandpit said:

    Chris said:



    To be honest, on a site about betting, I'd expect something a bit less blunt than "I don't think there will be a problem". Something more along the lines of looking at probabilities and consequences.

    Okay, numbers.

    ONS 2017 - 50% of food consumed in the UK is produced in the UK. 30% is imported from the EU and 20% imported from the RoW. 10% of the value of UK food consumption is exported.

    Source: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/food-statistics-pocketbook-2017/food-statistics-in-your-pocket-2017-global-and-uk-supply

    So, if trade in food with the EU stops completely, and we stop exporting, we can cover 80% of current domestic demand without any other changes.

    That's not going to lead to general shortages, as opposed to on specific lines - unless people start panicking.
    If we can only cover 80% of consumption, there will be rioting, looting and widespread malnutrition.

    Now, I don't think it will come to that (it's just not going to happen), but your answer shows a complete lack of understanding of how quickly food gets turned over in a supermarket.
    If everyone ate 80% of what they do now, we'd be a fitter and healthier nation, not starving and rioting.

    The problems will come from people panicking rather than trusting the supply chains to sort themselves out.

    Of course if half the EU food arrived, then we'd be on 95% even before the supermarkets go shopping in the rest of the world.

    There's plenty of risks associated with Brexit, but food shortages really isn't one of them. Maybe it might seem like the end of the world for Tarquin in Hoxton that he can't get avocados for a week or two, but it really isn't.
    Off you go again with your fake "we's". I doubt food supply in Dubai will be significantly affected, other than perhaps that the Marmite and HP Sauce might not be getting through.
    Why should geographic location determine whether you are a member of a community or not?
    Citizens of Nowhere Tessy seems to think it has some bearing.
    She was talking about tax dodgers
    Somewhere = a place
    Nowhere = not a place
    Precisely. She was talking about globe trotters who organise their tax affairs to minimise the contribution that they make to anywhere. Hence “citizens of nowhere” rather than people who put something back into the community to which they belong
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,060
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Anorak said:

    Sandpit said:

    Chris said:



    To be honest

    Okay, numbers.

    ONS 2017 - 50% of food consumed in the UK is produced in the UK. 30% is imported from the EU and 20% imported from the RoW. 10% of the value of UK food consumption is exported.

    Source: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/food-statistics-pocketbook-2017/food-statistics-in-your-pocket-2017-global-and-uk-supply

    So, if trade in food with the EU stops completely, and we stop exporting, we can cover 80% of current domestic demand without any other changes.

    That's not going to lead to general shortages, as opposed to on specific lines - unless people start panicking.
    If we can only cover 80% of consumption, there will be rioting, looting and widespread malnutrition.

    Now, I don't think it will come to that (it's just not going to happen), but your answer shows a complete lack of understanding of how quickly food gets turned over in a supermarket.
    If everyone ate 80% of what they do now, we'd be a fitter and healthier nation, not starving and rioting.

    The problems will come from people panicking rather than trusting the supply chains to sort themselves out.

    Of course if half the EU food arrived, then we'd be on 95% even before the supermarkets go shopping in the rest of the world.

    There's plenty of risks associated with Brexit, but food shortages really isn't one of them. Maybe it might seem like the end of the world for Tarquin in Hoxton that he can't get avocados for a week or two, but it really isn't.
    Off you go again with your fake "we's". I doubt food supply in Dubai will be significantly affected, other than perhaps that the Marmite and HP Sauce might not be getting through.
    Why should geographic location determine whether you are a member of a community or not?
    Citizens of Nowhere Tessy seems to think it has some bearing.
    She was talking about tax dodgers
    And suggesting that if you voted Remain you were privileged and out of touch.

    For the referendum was not just a vote to withdraw from the EU. It was about something broader – something that the European Union had come to represent.

    It was about a sense – deep, profound and let’s face it often justified – that many people have today that the world works well for a privileged few, but not for them.
    Eh? She’s talking about Leavers feeling left behind there.
    And the flip side of that is what? That Remainers are all right, Jack.
  • Options
    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    RobD said:

    Putting Venezuela’s crisis and US intervention in historical context

    The far-right governments of Trump and Bolsonaro offer no hope to Venezuela or to the majority of people in Latin America (US puts ‘full weight’ behind regime change in Venezuela, 24 January).

    Whatever views people hold on Venezuela, there is no justification for backing the US attempt at regime change under way, which, if successful, could go the way of the disastrous interventions in Iraq and Libya.

    Instead, the way forward is the call for dialogue from the Mexican and Bolivian presidents.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/27/putting-venezuelas-crisis-and-us-intervention-in-historical-context

    Signed by many of the usual suspects, including Owen Jones, Ken Livingstone and top Corbynista MPs, Stop the War, etc.

    Far-right? I wonder what term these people would use to describe Hitler's government? :D
    "Any suggestion of Hitler being an antisemite is a smear orchestrated by centrists. Hitler has always been against all forms of racism, and indeed frequently supports underprivileged groups such as Aryans."
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,280

    Scott_P said:
    Cameron's Govt. he joined (2010 Coalition) didn't call the Referendum - that was after the 2015 election, where the LibDems got so mullered they couldn't even have enabled a minibus....
    Cameron and Clegg’s government allowed cabinet ministers to say leaving the EU was a good idea without being disciplined. Hammond even got promoted for it.
    Really?

    "Coalition Agreement:

    9. Relations with the EU
    We agree that the British government will be a positive participant in the European Union, playing a strong and positive role with our partners....."

    Not much scope for Leaving there......

    Those were the days; how sensible in retrospect things seem back then.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    The "citizens of nowhere" speech, like every speech Tezza has given since, was addressed exclusively at those who voted Leave.

    Everybody else can fuck off (as far as she is concerned)
  • Options
    Scott_P said:

    The "citizens of nowhere" speech, like every speech Tezza has given since, was addressed exclusively at those who voted Leave.

    Everybody else can fuck off (as far as she is concerned)

    It's the fashion now to trash speeches and Withdrawal Agreements without bothering to read them. It's reprehensible in both cases.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190
    Scott_P said:

    The "citizens of nowhere" speech, like every speech Tezza has given since, was addressed exclusively at those who voted Leave.

    Everybody else can fuck off (as far as she is concerned)

    And yet, Remainer MPs backed her in the VoNC.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,990
    dixiedean said:

    kinabalu said:

    viewcode said:

    Peter Capaldi in the first series of "The Thick Of It" in 2005 was 47. In his last series of Doctor Who in 2017 was 58. His aging is dramatic.

    Men start to 'go over' at about 52. Certainly at 58 they are gone. They can still carry on if they really want to and many do - being CEOs, being Dr Who, staying in the cabinet, presenting documentaries on TV, running for president - but IMO it is all a bit uncalled for.
    About 52? That's me done for then.
    Bl&^%y hell, I must be coming round for the second time then!
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,601
    Couldn't this equally have been headlined 'Corporation tax yielding billions more than forecast' ?
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/28/uk-corporation-tax-cut-to-cost-billions-more-than-thought
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,202
    dixiedean said:

    About 52? That's me done for then.

    Well 'going over' is a process so you still have up to 6 years - do not on any account waste them.
  • Options
    Nigelb said:

    Couldn't this equally have been headlined 'Corporation tax yielding billions more than forecast' ?
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/28/uk-corporation-tax-cut-to-cost-billions-more-than-thought

    Not in the Guardian.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,990
    tlg86 said:

    Scott_P said:

    The "citizens of nowhere" speech, like every speech Tezza has given since, was addressed exclusively at those who voted Leave.

    Everybody else can fuck off (as far as she is concerned)

    And yet, Remainer MPs backed her in the VoNC.
    For many Tories it's the Party first, then the country.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,280
    British firms are “praying for an extension to article 50” rather than face a no-deal Brexit as it emerged that foreign investment has fallen steeply and the outlook for growth has slumped to a six-year low.

    The Confederation of British Industry said that firms’ reported growth prospects were at their weakest for almost six years, while other research shows the number of acquisitions of UK companies by foreign buyers is falling 11% year on year.

    The warnings emerged after the British Chambers of Commerce said that thousands of the firms it represented had already triggered contingency plans for a no-deal Brexit, including plans to move operations out of the UK.

    James Stewart, the head of Brexit at accountancy firm KPMG, said: “Many of the businesses we’re speaking to are praying for an extension to article 50”, hoping for a delay to the self-imposed 29 March deadline for Britain to leave the EU.
  • Options

    tlg86 said:

    Scott_P said:

    The "citizens of nowhere" speech, like every speech Tezza has given since, was addressed exclusively at those who voted Leave.

    Everybody else can fuck off (as far as she is concerned)

    And yet, Remainer MPs backed her in the VoNC.
    For many Tories it's the Party first, then the country.
    Fortunately the two objectives are perfectly aligned whilst Corbyn remains the alternative,
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    It's the fashion now to trash speeches and Withdrawal Agreements without bothering to read them. It's reprehensible in both cases.

    I watched it live. I got the message, loud and clear.
  • Options
    Scott_P said:

    It's the fashion now to trash speeches and Withdrawal Agreements without bothering to read them. It's reprehensible in both cases.

    I watched it live. I got the message, loud and clear.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias
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    FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    Actually the main concern of the BRC is fresh food. So brexiteers will be fine as they can keep on eating deep fried Mars Bars and tinned peas.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,601

    Nigelb said:

    Couldn't this equally have been headlined 'Corporation tax yielding billions more than forecast' ?
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/28/uk-corporation-tax-cut-to-cost-billions-more-than-thought

    Not in the Guardian.
    LOL

    And this might equally have been headlined "Wall St realises it can't buy the next Democratic nominee":
    https://www.politico.com/story/2019/01/28/wall-street-2020-economy-taxes-1118065
    “I’m a socially liberal, fiscally conservative centrist who would love to vote for a rational Democrat and get Trump out of the White House,” said the CEO of one of the nation’s largest banks, who, like a dozen other executives interviewed for this story, declined to be identified by name for fear of angering a volatile president. “Personally, I’d love to see Bloomberg run and get the nomination. I’ve just never thought he could get the nomination the way the primary process works.”...
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,280
    tlg86 said:

    Scott_P said:

    The "citizens of nowhere" speech, like every speech Tezza has given since, was addressed exclusively at those who voted Leave.

    Everybody else can fuck off (as far as she is concerned)

    And yet, Remainer MPs backed her in the VoNC.
    ..and the chances of getting a remainer as leader were....?
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    Fenman said:

    Actually the main concern of the BRC is fresh food. So brexiteers will be fine as they can keep on eating deep fried Mars Bars and tinned peas.

    Scotland voted to remain.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,601
    kinabalu said:

    viewcode said:

    Peter Capaldi in the first series of "The Thick Of It" in 2005 was 47. In his last series of Doctor Who in 2017 was 58. His aging is dramatic.

    Men start to 'go over' at about 52. Certainly at 58 they are gone. They can still carry on if they really want to and many do - being CEOs, being Dr Who, staying in the cabinet, presenting documentaries on TV, running for president - but IMO it is all a bit uncalled for.
    I'm assuming you're just trying to wind up @SeanT ?

    I have no intention of 'going' anywhere.

  • Options
    FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    Pulpstar said:

    Completely O/T, but this must be the weirdest housing estate ever built:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/28/fate-of-castles-in-the-air-in-turkeys-151m-ghost-town

    Atilla Yesilada, Turkey analyst for GlobalSource Partners, an emerging markets analysis firm, said Burj al Babas’s fate was a snapshot of the wider malaise plaguing the Turkish construction sector. “It’s not just the homebuilders who go bankrupt. The people who supply goods to those industries – the architects, the technicians, the glass and steel makers – those people suffer too,” he said.

    *Gulp* !
    But how can that be? Turkey is not in the EU but has an agreement a la May. Surely, according to the brexiteers this should be paradise
  • Options
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Couldn't this equally have been headlined 'Corporation tax yielding billions more than forecast' ?
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/28/uk-corporation-tax-cut-to-cost-billions-more-than-thought

    Not in the Guardian.
    LOL

    And this might equally have been headlined "Wall St realises it can't buy the next Democratic nominee":
    https://www.politico.com/story/2019/01/28/wall-street-2020-economy-taxes-1118065
    “I’m a socially liberal, fiscally conservative centrist who would love to vote for a rational Democrat and get Trump out of the White House,” said the CEO of one of the nation’s largest banks, who, like a dozen other executives interviewed for this story, declined to be identified by name for fear of angering a volatile president. “Personally, I’d love to see Bloomberg run and get the nomination. I’ve just never thought he could get the nomination the way the primary process works.”...
    My favourite current Guardian story is this one, which treads a wonderfully bonkers tightrope in insinuating that parliamentarians who are directly or vaguely associated with farms receiving large EU subsidies therefore support, err, Brexit and will lose them:

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jan/27/revealed-the-mps-and-peers-receiving-millions-in-eu-farm-subsidies-cap
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    ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    IanB2 said:

    British firms are “praying for an extension to article 50” rather than face a no-deal Brexit as it emerged that foreign investment has fallen steeply and the outlook for growth has slumped to a six-year low.

    The Confederation of British Industry said that firms’ reported growth prospects were at their weakest for almost six years, while other research shows the number of acquisitions of UK companies by foreign buyers is falling 11% year on year.

    The warnings emerged after the British Chambers of Commerce said that thousands of the firms it represented had already triggered contingency plans for a no-deal Brexit, including plans to move operations out of the UK.

    James Stewart, the head of Brexit at accountancy firm KPMG, said: “Many of the businesses we’re speaking to are praying for an extension to article 50”, hoping for a delay to the self-imposed 29 March deadlinefor Britain to leave the EU.

    Why would FDI increase with an extension of A50?

    An extension does not introduce any clarity for business it just extends the uncertainty. Which is also what May's deal does as well. What business wants is to have a clear understanding of what the future holds for the relationship that the UK will have with the EU and the RoW as soon as possible.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,973
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    PM May rule out no deal?

    Fish in a barrel job this morning!
    If this is true (how would we know?) this is a significant climb down for May. She can no longer use the threat of No Deal to suborn Parliament to vote for her shite deal.
    She sort-of can since nobody believes anything she says either way. I mean, they won't believe her when she says she won't go No Deal, but they also can't be sure that she *won't* go No Deal.

    It's a weird kind of negotiating strength: Normally you gain by making your words credible, but since she's trying to threaten both sides simultaneously it might be just what she needs...
    At this moment the only people who can stop a no deal exit are MPs. And they can only do it not by posturing and whining but by taking a conscious, deliberate decision to either pass this deal, or to Revoke Article 50.

    It is therefore disingenuous for anyone to blame May for the mess we are in. She actually has a workable plan and the Ultras aside, remains the only person who has (the Cooper plan being so much hot air). It is Parliament that is causing this logjam, and it is Parliament that needs to get itself sorted.

    Hopefully next year there will be an election and a clearout, as they're demonstrating all the skill and grace and integrity of a Corbyn at the moment, pursuing impossible dreams and lying about them. But for the moment, we need to concentrate on surviving the next two months and three days.

    May refused to be honest with the electorate about Brexit’s reality, May decided not to include Remain voters in her plans, May never sought Commons consensus, May drew those red lines. May appointed a series of cretinous, clueless Brexiteers to key cabinet positions. I think she has to get a teeny bit of blame for where we are now.
    So name an alternative plan.

    Even if you don't like what's on offer, she's got a deal. Nobody else has a clue.
    revoke , take the slap on the chops and get on with being a real member instead of a whinging cur. Tories don't have the guts for it though.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    Fenman said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Completely O/T, but this must be the weirdest housing estate ever built:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/28/fate-of-castles-in-the-air-in-turkeys-151m-ghost-town

    Atilla Yesilada, Turkey analyst for GlobalSource Partners, an emerging markets analysis firm, said Burj al Babas’s fate was a snapshot of the wider malaise plaguing the Turkish construction sector. “It’s not just the homebuilders who go bankrupt. The people who supply goods to those industries – the architects, the technicians, the glass and steel makers – those people suffer too,” he said.

    *Gulp* !
    But how can that be? Turkey is not in the EU but has an agreement a la May. Surely, according to the brexiteers this should be paradise
    More Trump's/Erdogan's nonsense rather than their position vis a vis their EU relationship.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,973
    Charles said:

    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    IanB2 said:


    What is objectionable is people living abroad like Sandpit (and Archer before him) advocating pain for the country and talking about the consequences in first person plural tense when they are safely set up thousands of miles away.

    Jeesh. This is very very unfair on @Sandpit, he wishes to return to blighty but due to the immigration rules he is unable to with his family ! This doesn't render his arguments moot.
    For the last time, he is entitled to put his arguments. What he is not entitled to do is pretend that he is in the same boat.
    He never did.

    I would use “We” as well when referring to the British population as a whole. But I suspect I’d have more options than most. That fact doesn’t invalidate my opinions
    Did so
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,629
    edited January 2019
    RobD said:

    Putting Venezuela’s crisis and US intervention in historical context

    The far-right governments of Trump and Bolsonaro offer no hope to Venezuela or to the majority of people in Latin America (US puts ‘full weight’ behind regime change in Venezuela, 24 January).

    Whatever views people hold on Venezuela, there is no justification for backing the US attempt at regime change under way, which, if successful, could go the way of the disastrous interventions in Iraq and Libya.

    Instead, the way forward is the call for dialogue from the Mexican and Bolivian presidents.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/27/putting-venezuelas-crisis-and-us-intervention-in-historical-context

    Signed by many of the usual suspects, including Owen Jones, Ken Livingstone and top Corbynista MPs, Stop the War, etc.

    Far-right? I wonder what term these people would use to describe Hitler's government? :D
    I'll tell you who else was deposed in an American backed regime change...
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,990

    tlg86 said:

    Scott_P said:

    The "citizens of nowhere" speech, like every speech Tezza has given since, was addressed exclusively at those who voted Leave.

    Everybody else can fuck off (as far as she is concerned)

    And yet, Remainer MPs backed her in the VoNC.
    For many Tories it's the Party first, then the country.
    Fortunately the two objectives are perfectly aligned whilst Corbyn remains the alternative,
    Hmm. Not too sure about that.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967

    IanB2 said:

    British firms are “praying for an extension to article 50” rather than face a no-deal Brexit as it emerged that foreign investment has fallen steeply and the outlook for growth has slumped to a six-year low.

    The Confederation of British Industry said that firms’ reported growth prospects were at their weakest for almost six years, while other research shows the number of acquisitions of UK companies by foreign buyers is falling 11% year on year.

    The warnings emerged after the British Chambers of Commerce said that thousands of the firms it represented had already triggered contingency plans for a no-deal Brexit, including plans to move operations out of the UK.

    James Stewart, the head of Brexit at accountancy firm KPMG, said: “Many of the businesses we’re speaking to are praying for an extension to article 50”, hoping for a delay to the self-imposed 29 March deadlinefor Britain to leave the EU.

    Why would FDI increase with an extension of A50?

    An extension does not introduce any clarity for business it just extends the uncertainty. Which is also what May's deal does as well. What business wants is to have a clear understanding of what the future holds for the relationship that the UK will have with the EU and the RoW as soon as possible.
    The EU say we (*innocent face*) can’t do that until we leave.
  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    PM May rule out no deal?

    Fish in a barrel job this morning!
    If this is true (how would we know?) this is a significant climb down for May. She can no longer use the threat of No Deal to suborn Parliament to vote for her shite deal.
    She sort-of can since nobody believes anything she says either way. I mean, they won't believe her when she says she won't go No Deal, but they also can't be sure that she *won't* go No Deal.

    It's a weird kind of negotiating strength: Normally you gain by making your words credible, but since she's trying to threaten both sides simultaneously it might be just what she needs...
    At this moment the only people who can stop a no deal exit are MPs. And they can only do it not by posturing and whining but by taking a conscious, deliberate decision to either pass this deal, or to Revoke Article 50.

    It is therefore disingenuous for anyone to blame May for the mess we are in. She actually has a workable plan and the Ultras aside, remains the only person who has (the Cooper plan being so much hot air). It is Parliament that is causing this logjam, and it is Parliament that needs to get itself sorted.

    Hopefully next year there will be an election and a clearout, as they're demonstrating all the skill and grace and integrity of a Corbyn at the moment, pursuing impossible dreams and lying about them. But for the moment, we need to concentrate on surviving the next two months and three days.

    May refused to be honest with the electorate about Brexit’s reality, May decided not to include Remain voters in her plans, May never sought Commons consensus, May drew those red lines. May appointed a series of cretinous, clueless Brexiteers to key cabinet positions. I think she has to get a teeny bit of blame for where we are now.
    So name an alternative plan.

    Even if you don't like what's on offer, she's got a deal. Nobody else has a clue.
    revoke , take the slap on the chops and get on with being a real member instead of a whinging cur. Tories don't have the guts for it though.
    We don't want to be a real member. We had a referendum on it and everything....
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190
    IanB2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Scott_P said:

    The "citizens of nowhere" speech, like every speech Tezza has given since, was addressed exclusively at those who voted Leave.

    Everybody else can fuck off (as far as she is concerned)

    And yet, Remainer MPs backed her in the VoNC.
    ..and the chances of getting a remainer as leader were....?
    Well, perhaps they are in the wrong party.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,973
    Scott_P said:
    Falklands is a long way to go for a pint of milk and a loaf.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    malcolmg said:

    take the slap on the chops and get on with being a real member instead of a whinging cur.

    Like the Scots in the UK...
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,060

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    PM May rule out no deal?

    Fish in a barrel job this morning!
    If this is true (how would we know?) this is a significant climb down for May. She can no longer use the threat of No Deal to suborn Parliament to vote for her shite deal.
    She sort-of can since nobody believes anything she says either way. I mean, they won't believe her when she says she won't go No Deal, but they also can't be sure that she *won't* go No Deal.

    It's a weird kind of negotiating strength: Normally you gain by making your words credible, but since she's trying to threaten both sides simultaneously it might be just what she needs...
    At this moment the only people who can stop a no deal exit are MPs. And they can only do it not by posturing and whining but by taking a conscious, deliberate decision to either pass this deal, or to Revoke Article 50.

    It is therefore disingenuous for anyone to blame May for the mess we are in. She actually has a workable plan and the Ultras aside, remains the only person who has (the Cooper plan being so much hot air). It is Parliament that is causing this logjam, and it is Parliament that needs to get itself sorted.

    Hopefully next year there will be an election and a clearout, as they're demonstrating all the skill and grace and integrity of a Corbyn at the moment, pursuing impossible dreams and lying about them. But for the moment, we need to concentrate on surviving the next two months and three days.

    May refused to be honest with the electorate about Brexit’s reality, May decided not to include Remain voters in her plans, May never sought Commons consensus, May drew those red lines. May appointed a series of cretinous, clueless Brexiteers to key cabinet positions. I think she has to get a teeny bit of blame for where we are now.
    So name an alternative plan.

    Even if you don't like what's on offer, she's got a deal. Nobody else has a clue.
    revoke , take the slap on the chops and get on with being a real member instead of a whinging cur. Tories don't have the guts for it though.
    We don't want to be a real member. We had a referendum on it and everything....
    We had a referendum on being a reluctant member. When we had a referendum on being a real member in 1975, 17.4 million people said Yes.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,845

    Chris said:

    It is rather spooky how closely the BBC report echoes what I posted earlier:
    "Retailers have been reluctant to intervene in the Brexit debate but are doing so now as the UK's departure date from the EU approaches.
    Their letter says that stockpiling fresh food is impossible and that the complex, 'just in time' supply chain through which food is imported into the UK will be "significantly disrupted" in the event of a no-deal Brexit.
    It adds it is difficult to stockpile any more produce as "all frozen and chilled storage is already been used"."
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47028748

    Just let this sink in.

    We are talking about food shortages as a direct result of government policy.
    Pulpstar said:

    Why all the panic over no deal ?

    The Cooper-Boles amendment will pass, and the Gov't has said that it will be duty bound to seek an extension on Brexit. Now the EU shouldn't give us more time to fanny about, but they are keen to avoid a no deal Brexit; so they will.
    Why deal with now what you can kick down the road later. Once it's been kicked down the road once, it will be kicked down the road again and again till eventually some sort of deal or another referendum (Either possibly after a GE) is passed.
    For the moment it'll be Hotel California Brexit though.

    That seems likely. With the ERG doing its best to sabotage Brexit, Remainers have very little reason to be worried.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    PM May rule out no deal?

    Fish in a barrel job this morning!
    If this is true (how would we know?) this is a significant climb down for May. She can no longer use the threat of No Deal to suborn Parliament to vote for her shite deal.
    She sort-of can since nobody believes anything she says either way. I mean, they won't believe her when she says she won't go No Deal, but they also can't be sure that she *won't* go No Deal.

    It's a weird kind of negotiating strength: Normally you gain by making your words credible, but since she's trying to threaten both sides simultaneously it might be just what she needs...
    At this moment the only people who can stop a no deal exit are MPs. And they can only do it not by posturing and whining but by taking a conscious, deliberate decision to either pass this deal, or to Revoke Article 50.

    It is therefore disingenuous for anyone to blame May for the mess we are in. She actually has a workable plan and the Ultras aside, remains the only person who has (the Cooper plan being so much hot air). It is Parliament that is causing this logjam, and it is Parliament that needs to get itself sorted.

    Hopefully next year there will be an election and a clearout, as they're demonstrating all the skill and grace and integrity of a Corbyn at the moment, pursuing impossible dreams and lying about them. But for the moment, we need to concentrate on surviving the next two months and three days.

    May refused to be honest with the electorate about Brexit’s reality, May decided not to include Remain voters in her plans, May never sought Commons consensus, May drew those red lines. May appointed a series of cretinous, clueless Brexiteers to key cabinet positions. I think she has to get a teeny bit of blame for where we are now.
    So name an alternative plan.

    Even if you don't like what's on offer, she's got a deal. Nobody else has a clue.
    revoke , take the slap on the chops and get on with being a real member instead of a whinging cur. Tories don't have the guts for it though.
    We don't want to be a real member. We had a referendum on it and everything....
    We had a referendum on being a reluctant member. When we had a referendum on being a real member in 1975, 17.4 million people said Yes.
    The EEC has changed a lot since then....
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,845
    Scott_P said:
    It is within the power of MPs to ratify the WA, so that is no longer a risk.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,060
    RobD said:

    We had a referendum on being a reluctant member. When we had a referendum on being a real member in 1975, 17.4 million people said Yes.

    The EEC has changed a lot since then....
    It's done what it said on the tin. This is what Heath told parliament in 1972.

    https://api.parliament.uk/historic-hansard/commons/1972/oct/23/european-communities-summit-conference-1

    The purpose of the meeting was to set the course for the development of the enlarged Community. We thought it right to establish the broad principles on which this development should be based. In each field of activity we considered, the Community showed that it could agree not just on broad principles but also upon practical decisions and a programme of work for the institutions of the Community, to nut the principles into effect.

    The main decision of the summit conference was that the member States of the Community affirmed their intention to transform the whole complex of their relations into a European Union by the end of the decade. The institutions of the Community are to report on the subject by the end of 1975. The enlarged Community reaffirmed its determination to progress towards economic and monetary union; and it was fully accepted that progress in economic co-operation must move in parallel with progress in monetary co-operation.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Sean_F said:

    It is within the power of MPs to ratify the WA, so that is no longer a risk.

    They refused to do so, which makes it a risk
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Anorak said:

    Sandpit said:

    Chris said:



    To be honest

    Okay, numbers.


    So, if trade in food with the EU stops completely, and we stop exporting, we can cover 80% of current domestic demand without any other changes.

    That's not going to lead to general shortages, as opposed to on specific lines - unless people start panicking.
    If we can only cover 80% of consumption, there will be rioting, looting and widespread malnutrition.

    Now, I don't think it will come to that (it's just not going to happen), but your answer shows a complete lack of understanding of how quickly food gets turned over in a supermarket.
    If everyone ate 80% of what they do now, we'd be a fitter and healthier nation, not starving and rioting.

    The problems will come from people panicking rather than trusting the supply chains to sort themselves out.

    Of course if half the EU food arrived, then we'd be on 95% even before the supermarkets go shopping in the rest of the world.

    There's plenty of risks associated with Brexit, but food shortages really isn't one of them. Maybe it might seem like the end of the world for Tarquin in Hoxton that he can't get avocados for a week or two, but it really isn't.
    Off you go again with your fake "we's". I doubt food supply in Dubai will be significantly affected, other than perhaps that the Marmite and HP Sauce might not be getting through.
    Why should geographic location determine whether you are a member of a community or not?
    Citizens of Nowhere Tessy seems to think it has some bearing.
    She was talking about tax dodgers
    And suggesting that if you voted Remain you were privileged and out of touch.

    For the referendum was not just a vote to withdraw from the EU. It was about something broader – something that the European Union had come to represent.

    It was about a sense – deep, profound and let’s face it often justified – that many people have today that the world works well for a privileged few, but not for them.
    Eh? She’s talking about Leavers feeling left behind there.
    And the flip side of that is what? That Remainers are all right, Jack.
    Nope. That the world “works well for a privileged few”. With May WYSIWYG
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,845
    Scott_P said:

    Sean_F said:

    It is within the power of MPs to ratify the WA, so that is no longer a risk.

    They refused to do so, which makes it a risk
    A risk which most MPs are happy to take.
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Sean_F said:

    That seems likely. With the ERG doing its best to sabotage Brexit, Remainers have very little reason to be worried.

    Au contraire... given all the additional enabling bills needed to do anything no matter which option is picked, it looks increasingly like there will be an almighty cockup since we are running out of time of pass ANY bills. Even if we revoke A50, we need to undo our domestic changes and we lack time for that.

    Maybe we will not "No Deal" but it looks like we will "Screw up"
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967

    RobD said:

    We had a referendum on being a reluctant member. When we had a referendum on being a real member in 1975, 17.4 million people said Yes.

    The EEC has changed a lot since then....
    It's done what it said on the tin. This is what Heath told parliament in 1972.

    https://api.parliament.uk/historic-hansard/commons/1972/oct/23/european-communities-summit-conference-1

    The purpose of the meeting was to set the course for the development of the enlarged Community. We thought it right to establish the broad principles on which this development should be based. In each field of activity we considered, the Community showed that it could agree not just on broad principles but also upon practical decisions and a programme of work for the institutions of the Community, to nut the principles into effect.

    The main decision of the summit conference was that the member States of the Community affirmed their intention to transform the whole complex of their relations into a European Union by the end of the decade. The institutions of the Community are to report on the subject by the end of 1975. The enlarged Community reaffirmed its determination to progress towards economic and monetary union; and it was fully accepted that progress in economic co-operation must move in parallel with progress in monetary co-operation.
    No mention of political union... :p
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,060
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    We had a referendum on being a reluctant member. When we had a referendum on being a real member in 1975, 17.4 million people said Yes.

    The EEC has changed a lot since then....
    It's done what it said on the tin. This is what Heath told parliament in 1972.

    https://api.parliament.uk/historic-hansard/commons/1972/oct/23/european-communities-summit-conference-1

    The purpose of the meeting was to set the course for the development of the enlarged Community. We thought it right to establish the broad principles on which this development should be based. In each field of activity we considered, the Community showed that it could agree not just on broad principles but also upon practical decisions and a programme of work for the institutions of the Community, to nut the principles into effect.

    The main decision of the summit conference was that the member States of the Community affirmed their intention to transform the whole complex of their relations into a European Union by the end of the decade. The institutions of the Community are to report on the subject by the end of 1975. The enlarged Community reaffirmed its determination to progress towards economic and monetary union; and it was fully accepted that progress in economic co-operation must move in parallel with progress in monetary co-operation.
    No mention of political union... :p
    If you read the rest of it he talks about a common foreign policy.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,845

    Sean_F said:

    That seems likely. With the ERG doing its best to sabotage Brexit, Remainers have very little reason to be worried.

    Au contraire... given all the additional enabling bills needed to do anything no matter which option is picked, it looks increasingly like there will be an almighty cockup since we are running out of time of pass ANY bills. Even if we revoke A50, we need to undo our domestic changes and we lack time for that.

    Maybe we will not "No Deal" but it looks like we will "Screw up"
    A lot depends whether the EU will play ball. If they're willing to extend the A50 deadline so that our MPs can faff around, well, they'll faff around indefinitely.

    If they say No, then MPs have to take a decision, fast.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    When do we learn which amendments His Ever So Humbleness has selected?
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    PM May rule out no deal?

    Fish in a barrel job this morning!
    If this is true (how would we know?) this is a significant climb down for May. She can no longer use the threat of No Deal to suborn Parliament to vote for her shite deal.

    It's a weird kind of negotiating strength: Normally you gain by making your words credible, but since she's trying to threaten both sides simultaneously it might be just what she needs...
    At this moment the only people who can stop a no deal exit are MPs. And they can only do it not by posturing and whining but by taking a conscious, deliberate decision to either pass this deal, or to Revoke Article 50.

    It is therefore disingenuous for anyone to blame May for the mess we are in. She actually has a workable plan and the Ultras aside, remains the only person who has (the Cooper plan being so much hot air). It is Parliament that is causing this logjam, and it is Parliament that needs to get itself sorted.

    Hopefully next year there will be an election and a clearout, as they're demonstrating all the skill and grace and integrity of a Corbyn at the moment, pursuing impossible dreams and lying about them. But for the moment, we need to concentrate on surviving the next two months and three days.

    May refused to be honest with the electorate about Brexit’s reality, May decided not to include Remain voters in her plans, May never sought Commons consensus, May drew those red lines. May appointed a series of cretinous, clueless Brexiteers to key cabinet positions. I think she has to get a teeny bit of blame for where we are now.
    So name an alternative plan.

    Even if you don't like what's on offer, she's got a deal. Nobody else has a clue.
    revoke , take the slap on the chops and get on with being a real member instead of a whinging cur. Tories don't have the guts for it though.
    We don't want to be a real member. We had a referendum on it and everything....
    We had a referendum on being a reluctant member. When we had a referendum on being a real member in 1975, 17.4 million people said Yes.
    Seeing as I wasn't even born, yet alone old enough to vote, a reconisder after 40 years doesn't seem too unreasonable.

    Certainly more reasonable than a re-consider before this one is even implemented.
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,122
    Pulpstar said:

    Why all the panic over no deal ?

    The Cooper-Boles amendment will pass, and the Gov't has said that it will be duty bound to seek an extension on Brexit. Now the EU shouldn't give us more time to fanny about, but they are keen to avoid a no deal Brexit; so they will.
    Why deal with now what you can kick down the road later. Once it's been kicked down the road once, it will be kicked down the road again and again till eventually some sort of deal or another referendum (Either possibly after a GE) is passed.
    For the moment it'll be Hotel California Brexit though.

    I suppose it depends whether the EU is bluffing about not extending the deadline except for an agreed plan.

    Regardless of what people say about the EU wanting to maintain unity and the requirement for unanimity not making much difference, I think it clearly does mean greater weight will be given to minority views.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    New thread.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,202
    Nigelb said:

    I'm assuming you're just trying to wind up @SeanT ?

    I have no intention of 'going' anywhere.

    Nothing wrong with that attitude. Each can take their own approach to the challenge of 'going over'. Personally, I see much merit in bull by horns and getting it over and done with quickly. So one day you just take an audit, external and internal, and embrace that you are now on the other side. You are no longer going over. You are gone. After this there is no looking back, no more pain and confusion, and the sky's the limit.
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    It shames me to recall that I once worked for a company that was effectively insolvent. We managed to sell it at a scandalously high price to a cash rich water company. The due diligence was perfectly thorough, orthodox and intense. But none of the visiting accountants and consultants thought to ask basic common sense questions. Had they asked, for example, when we last paid the milkman the answer would have been '12 months ago' because we never paid anybody we didn't have to. We had no cash. To us, it was obvious the company was broke, but it didn't become obvious to the buyer until a few days after the sale was completed.

    I always read the bank statements. Cashflow is king. Always.
    Plus you need to find the unpaid invoices stuffed in a drawer somewhere.
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    BudGBudG Posts: 711
    Chris said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Why all the panic over no deal ?

    The Cooper-Boles amendment will pass, and the Gov't has said that it will be duty bound to seek an extension on Brexit. Now the EU shouldn't give us more time to fanny about, but they are keen to avoid a no deal Brexit; so they will.
    Why deal with now what you can kick down the road later. Once it's been kicked down the road once, it will be kicked down the road again and again till eventually some sort of deal or another referendum (Either possibly after a GE) is passed.
    For the moment it'll be Hotel California Brexit though.

    I suppose it depends whether the EU is bluffing about not extending the deadline except for an agreed plan.

    Regardless of what people say about the EU wanting to maintain unity and the requirement for unanimity not making much difference, I think it clearly does mean greater weight will be given to minority views.
    There is little or no downside for the EU to extend for short while until the EU elections. After that it becomes more problematical. They would prefer us not to crash out on March 29th without a deal, so giving us a short extension which has no downside for them is a bit of a no-brainer.
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    Pulpstar said:

    Fenman said:

    Actually the main concern of the BRC is fresh food. So brexiteers will be fine as they can keep on eating deep fried Mars Bars and tinned peas.

    Scotland voted to remain.
    But a large number of Scots also voted Leave.

    Mars bar eating surrender monkeys.
This discussion has been closed.